Deep Dive: Tesla Robotaxi and BOTS Models | Cern Basher
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- Опубликовано: 2 сен 2023
- Few have the done the work to detail out the potential value of Tesla's Full Self Driving "FSD" software + Autonomy.
Our guest today will dive deep into one such model. A model he calls the "CERN" Model for Tesla - a Conceived Estimate of Robotaxi Network. The CERN model shows what if values for Tesla FSD + Autonomy of $329 billion today and $9.4 trillion in 2035.
He’s also done the same thing to work out the potential value of Tesla’s humanoid robot opportunity. Calling it the Boundless Optimus Transformation at Scale or "BOTS" Model for Tesla.
Follow Cern on Twitter: @CernBasher
Website: BrilliantAdvice.net
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
#Tesla #TSLA #stock #ElonMusk #investing #teslabot #technology 
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Herbert. Thanks to you and Cern for a brilliant episode. Cern''s points on the robot business were especially insightful. Less so on the robotaxi business. Here he presents a reasonable financial model but not an operating model. Here I think I can offer some insights. I am a Tesla owner and an Uber driver. My experience tells me that an operating model of the RT business must start with the concept of "trips". Trips have numerous attributes, including type of service, wait time (for rider), car distance from point of service, distance of the ride, time of day, car average speed, need for service (ie pet hair clean up), etc. Modeling using these attributes (as I have) leads one to different outcomes. For example, the Census bureau estimates that the Dallas Ft. Worth metro area has 3 million drivers. of whom 2.1m commute to work - ie 4.2 m trips, almost all of whom do that commute between the hours of 6-9AM and 4-7PM, ie 25% of the day. Gaining just a third of that traffic implies the requirement for a minimum of 100,000 cars in DFW alone driving an average of 30 trips a day. (8 mile average trip, 1 min wait time, 35mph avg speed, pick up distance 1.5 miles, 20 hours/day availability). There are numerous other interesting operating outcomes and insights that come out of the model, and I'll be happy to discuss these at greater length if you are interested. Bottom line, remember the mission. Here's the RT version of it. "Hasten the advent of a fully sustainable economy by providing a convenient, comfortable, cost-effective, reliable, and safe transportation service that offers a compelling alternative to personal car ownership." Commuter adoption and scale will be the challenge. If Tesla is going to achieve the mission, they have to go big or stay home - there will be no participation prizes. The rewards are enormous. My model of just DFW financial outcomes comes out to DFW being a $21B gross revenue business, with Tesla harvesting $10.5B of that. Here's the operating plan bottom line. IF Tesla really achieves FSD by the end of 2024 (as I believe they will), building a mission-achieving RT business will be an enormous task requiring wrenching Tesla strategic assumption decisions. (EG - will Tesla still sell cars?) I can't wait to see how this turns out. We are in for some interesting times!
If all vehicles on the road were FSD, the average speed would be higher.
Ant traffic light could be controlled knowing the traffic flow through them.
Things changes in ways we haven't thought about.
Many of us would start working already in the car, of course.
@@larsnystrom6698 Regarding avg. speed going up - eventually but this won't happen soon, because human drivers aren't going away (this decade, at any rate).
Finally someone addressing the Robot Tax… First time I see someone considering the impact robots have on the workforce and that it needs to be taken care of financially; not everyone can earn a living as an artist or a youtuber; eventually the UBI needs to be financed, and how if not mainly by a Robot Tax (i.e. the main source of the „issue“)?
Also an AI tax as artists and RUclipsrs will also be out of jobs very soon. Social reorganisation is needed but the future looks bright.
Also, as we have an increasing automated bot workforce, along with every cheaper renewable energy costs at scale over time, the cost of goods reduces significantly meaning UBI won't need to be as high as people may believe.
he is not herbet the pervet he knows what he is doing
Not just tax revenue but huge savings. A bot pays taxes but does not cause society/governments to pay for 24 years of schooling or 30 years of retirement or unemployment benefits or Medicaid/disability costs. Costs of birth, child care, disability, medical care, retirement, end of life costs.
Great more uneducated. Just what society needs..😊
What is the point of this statement? Humans are still going to be around and those costs are not going away with bots. Unemployments costs would skyrocket one would imagine.
Have yet to watch - but really nice to see NEW intellect on your channel - looking forward to the next hour - Thanks Herbert !!
He's totally making these numbers up. That doesn't mean it's a bad exercise to figure out how the Tesla bot may change things.
Luv the giraffe in the background Cern. Karibu from Kenya.
Fantastic video, one of the best interviews/insights in to the future of Tesla that I have seen to date. Keep up the good work and thanks again 🙏🏻
I think these are giddy, super-optimistic assumptions driving these projectons
Good attempt for a business case but I miss depreciation of the car, normal insurance and the extra liability risk insurance(like doctors in case something goes wrong) and finance money is free in this so all not realistic.
Paying long term a PE ratio of 30 is also tooo high .
Anyway good start
Taxis don’t have any problem getting insurance and Robotaxis will have fewer accidents.
The models at this point are static, per year. Not dynamic projections over multiple years. Even with the few current assumptions Cern can produce dramatically different outcomes. As he says, this is just about getting a grip on the potential impact of robotaxis and bots. Not an exact projection. Right now it’s more important to talk about basic assumptions and their magnitude rather than getting bogged down in minutiae of purely hypothetical scenarios.
What a great guest. I love his take on the potential fleet operators perspective and all the additional cost for operating a robotaxi. We might see a 25 cent per mile in the distant future, but I am not seeing this within the first 10 years after autonomy emerges.
Robo Taxi could be employed by Large Restaurant, they can just pick up grandma, Grandpa to dine with Family , and drive back. $20
Also a one price deal to go 400 mile trips to Los Angeles from Phoenix. Sleeping Ride. Of 4 $100.
Excellent interview (as always) Herbert, congrats, the future is exciting
Excellent job by Cern. Thanks.
Herbert, I love your channel. Just one thing to improve: don't say AI coded, that's inaccurate wording. Neural nets are not traditional code, but a network of nodes doing computations using weights to determine outputs in each layer. The weights are figured out during the training phase. So there is no "AI coding" in the process. Research this a bit more to find the right way to explain to the audience. Keep up the great work!
Thanks to Cern and Herbert for this great discussion !!!
Bot cost severely underestimated. It’s a question of durability, precision, and function.
if you pump out 20 million bots a year from one factory, trust me, cost will be bassically nothing
What do you think bots will cost to make?
Great insights and interview! I got brighter 😉Thank you both!!!
Nice
-add in B2B software revenues to make alternative EVs autonomous
-my first point accelerates the unit vols of the Tesla robotaxi network
-robots themselves will have FSD so that’s another way to get more units in the network
Clear message grom this video is to concentrate on bots as the liability risk is low, few regulations and lesser complex as robotaxi.
All entrepreneurs will want them from day 1 just to make money. Plus leasing gives decent control against misuse.
These mentioned tax incomes/costs will not come soon as their will be enough governments waving them to grow their production volumes.
I would say: Tesla start building your factory NOW, don't wait as version 1 will be hot and could see pre-lease-orders easily beating cybertruck volumes
Am I missing something?
For the fleet operator, where is the cost of the vehicle?
i.e. Depreciation?
That is a large blunder if not included, depreciation is larger than fuel, insurance, maintenance and cleaning combined!
Version 2 of the model corrects these blunders
Herbert voice sounds like a deep base. It is disturbingly unique.
I suggest using New York City taxi experience as a mature usage model for a mature system. Great sensitivity model.
@hansscott9749
Initially, yes.
But 8f the price is low enough we will utilize cars differently, i.e., more.
I think of it replacing the subway and busses.
Probably the most mind expanding video and conversation that has ever happened! Thank you and Cern sooo much for opening peoples minds to this historical unfolding event. It’s going to be very difficult to top this one!
Amazing for TSLA. Visionary too. Tony Seba 2.0. Great comments too! One question: retraining? To what? Bot + AI can do almost anything. A replacing universal basic income will be needed.
It's always easier to see what jobs will be lost than what new jobs will be created. But, I share your concern - Bot + AI will be able to do almost anything!
Lots of people see the value of humanoid robots. The competition in this area is unbelievable! Lots of very experienced and knowledgeable people in this area. Many have a huge head start. The list is very long and growing by the day.
Robotaxi: no one addresses who is actually going to operate a taxi fleet? The legal liability for an individual will be brutal.
Tesla could operate a fleet. There will likely be large fleet operators - like Hertz or Uber. There could also be smaller fleet operators for specific niches. Individuals are unlikely to operate a fleet (except perhaps in the early years) as economies of scale are important. Those who can drive down the operating costs will win.
Herbert; Thanks for the great interview with Cern. I just thought of a question regarding his cost model. He has annual cost of maintenance and cleaning of $3000. He's also assuming 60K miles of annual driving. With that much driving, isn't each car going to have to replace all 4 tires almost annually? Would not this single cost be more significant than the total amount otherwise allowed for maintenance and cleaning?
Just wondering.
Lewis in Montreal 🤔
Not to mention new batteries every 3-4 years eventually
Not to mention new batteries every 3-4 years eventually
Middle Cities , example Cities like Kingman Can be home for workers that work in Vegas , RoboTaxi Sleeping ride 1.5 hours, $10
Grate questions asked as always.
Really great interview and information!
10 million bots can be operational within 5 years already, adding more than 3 trillion in market cap 🤯🤯🤯
Gary Black; everyone will build robots shortly after Tesla
I am all set. I already have a model Y lpng range with FSD. I also have solot on my house,
Thanks!
THUMBS ! Doh, ………comment below Cont’d ………To make sense of the value to Tesla AND to the aspirational Shepherd like me in the UK ( i already own 4 in preparation for this business opportunity) Clearly Flexing the cost of the Ride DEPENDS, in a business model such as this, on ‘being familiar’ with cost of competitive rides -totally familiar……… PLEASE. Simply Flexing the cost of FSD to a Tesla owner totally misses the multiple application opportunities , like………. “I just want it for my own use and maybe my friends and family” has a completely different ceiling of pricing. This is a brilliant deep dive - Thank You Cern for stimulating thought and discussion, based around your experience of business accounting. But adding “possibilities” like advertising and in car entertainment are too spurious to include in any model dedicated to the PROFITABILITY OF NEW WORLD CARS WITHOUT DRIVERS😮.For example there is ZERO reference to the legi
Argh, Now fed up with You Tube comments, initial comment just lost in the ether - context of “contd” is now pointless.
Please can I get access to Cerns spreadsheet so I can model and modify? Patreon maybe?
Bots will be run by shepherds. And Redundancies will be paid IN Otimimi. And than leased back to the Employer. NO need for UBI.
RoboTaxi as Municipal Airport Shuttle for ALL tourists , Vegas Hotel Shuttle to and fro , including In boring tunnels, Airport.
Maybe FSD and ChatGPT will combine and make a robotaxi that won't shut up !
Tony Seba did great analysis years ago. Operating cost less than 20 cents a mile, including "everything", so add $10 a day and you get a 20% net margin.
If the bot is successful enough, it could have worldwide deflationary effects. This could lead to the abundant future Elon suggests.
Worldwide deflation leads to an abundant future?
We don’t have enough resources to create the abundance. Too many bottlenecks.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 why wouldn’t it?
Optimus / Humanoid robots will break economy and therefore thats the only possible outcome
@@SirHargreeves there comes spacex
Herbert, amazing interview! Cern, brilliant analysis! Thank you both :)
No matter what you assume or how you play with the numbers, when autonomy is there it will be a huge revenue stream and only strengthen the (Tesla) ecosystem.
We didn’t even talk about logistics, which has likely a much higher utilization than personal robotaxis.
Imagine deliveries, where the Robotaxi and a Bot deliver the product, maybe even beating amazon etc.
And everything about the Bot just becomes ridiculous very fast.
Dear Herbert, My impression is that these numbers may be somewhat overstated. You can get a better feel by using data or feedback from Uber and Uber drivers. It appears the average Uber trip is 5.4 miles and not ten miles. Assuming the average full time Uber driver works 8 hours a day and gets 2 to 3 trips per hour, he is likely to get 16 to 24 trips a day. When the time comes that robotaxis can operate without human assistance, you may be able to assume more hours a day, but we must recognise that most Uber drivers work during those hours in the day that are most productive revenue wise. In other words, we can't assume we can maintain the same rate of revenue beyond the first 8 most productive hours. If the average of 5.4 miles per trip is correct, the numbers in your video should be roughly halved, assuming everything else is correct.
Good point about Uber drivers working during the most productive time of the day. That said, if the cost of robotaxis are a lot less than Uber rides, then you'll have more people using robotaxis than use Uber's today - this isn't just a small increase, but a massive increase as people go from owning a vehicle to using transport as a service. Also if the trip length is shorter, then the robotaxi algorithm will optimize the interplay of the base fare and the per mile rate - so a drop in one variable doesn't necessarily flow through the rest of the model.
Something I am considering as a commercial property owner in a small market with solar charging potential - big cost not considering: inside storage.
Tell me more...
This is freakin amazing!
its not herbert the pervert from family guy he is a genious
Ive got a model 3 performance and i put on about 15k miles per year. thier is no way im gonna add 45k miles a year for 3700$ thats chump change compared to the hassle...even if i spend 32k on a base model 3, and once your 4 years in and paid off your car with this chump change income your now in a quarter million miles, tiny resale value and no more warranty, what is the life on the gearbox/powertrain? im sure that replacing that would cost more than the car is worth....
sorry to clarify this response is prior to looking at base fare....
Excellent, excellent discussion, with Cern adding some real meat to the "nutty forecasts". Tesla has been handed a 10-year head start to perfect EV manufacturing and operation (at massive scale) and AI robotaxis, in the process gobbling up much of the world's elite talent to accelerate their mission. Market domination is inevitable, and to avoid government over-reach Tesla will want to be very generous in sharing the tax revenue, but this aligns with the mission anyway so no problems. I agree that governments and cities will compete for robotaxis and bots, so growth for Tesla will be explosive. We shareholders are along for the ride, and it will be wild.
Great analysis of what FSD could be applied to but as with all things that will threaten the status quo, I would add 'Transition' costs for those people who will wage war against change.
We are getting a fuller picture of this incredible future and I hope Cern will return to your channel Herbert as he fills in the other opportunities and assumptions that he researches and makes. Tesla being valued as it is today seems OBSCENELY CHEAP, IMHO so I look forward to buying more while this new world unfolds! Not financial advice.
Is there an a way to get access to the spreadsheets. Would like to play around with them and make my own assumptions. Great interview Herbert!
They looked pretty straightforward to me. I didn’t see any fancy algorithms, just basic accounting.
Well it is nice to talk, but first fsd needs to work. Until then it is just talking heads fantasing about stuff. Car depreciation and maintenance is also underestimated in the model shown here.
Si-fi future just around the corner
It’s very important to note that Uber and Lyft currently don’t make money. They use clever accounting rules to adjust their EBITA.
I am curious about the impact robotaxi could have on the total number of vehicles needed. Tony Seba has mentioned that most vehicles are driven around an hour per day. I believe the introduction of robotaxi would significantly decrease the total number of automobiles required. This would have a massive impact on reducing our carbon footprint, less vehicles = less lithium, steel, electricity etc....but also significantly impact these revenue predictions for TSLA.
The general metric most are estimating is 5x utilisation.
There’s 1.5 billion cars.
So that reduces to 300 million cars.
So Tesla could capture 200 million of those?
However…
If people can get rides for half what they’re paying now then many more people will use them than currently.
Many retired people would probably make more trips.
@@fredbloggs5902 Thank you! That is helpful. 2/3 Tesla sounds highly aggressive.....maybe all cars are using their software but I can't imagine that they have 2/3 market share.
@mrapps22
Before the number of cars are reduced, Tesla's revenues are from Bots. So, I don't worry about that.
@@mrapps22 200 million cars at 20 million a year is only ten years production, it seems feasible to me.
@@larsnystrom6698 💯!!
I'm not worried either, just questioning the model.
Insurance costs will be a major one. Plus all states will institute a road use tax to make up for loss of gas tax. These two major line items.
Good points. Version 2 of my model considers these items.
What does this mean in terms of stock price in 5, 10, and 15 years?
Everyone leaves out that Hardware 4 + 12 cameras + DOJO & new END -END-Software + Data increase = TRILLIONS
What about the cost of the real estate needed to house the fleet and it's associated property taxes, security, etc?
Does the fleet need to be housed? Robotaxis need to be charged somewhere, but beyond that they can park free in many places (in some cities parking will be a cost). As for security, the vehicle can drive off if it detects a threat - recording everything as it goes.
Will the bots be like our phone where we can port our address list and pictures to our new phone, so we buy (or train) certain skills for our bot, then transfer it to our new bot when we inevitably upgrade in a few years?
Great presentation by both you and Cern. Thanks. I have already been talking to my senator about having robots pay money into social security "A Johnny Robot Contribution" for everyone who loses a job. This could save Social Security and provide many years of quality benefits to Americans who have worked and contributed their hard earned money into the Social Security system. Robots are labor saving devices and will be very profitable. The owners or lessees of the Robots should be held accountable to a reasonable degree to enable Social Security to have a future. This could be a real benefit to society that Robots could bring. After all Robots are for the benefit of mankind.
Tesla FSD version 12 has not yet been given to the employees according to a chat bot
If people are using Rbo taxi, one can live in another state while going to another state to work/school.
Depreciation expense please
Ok, CFA is not certified financial accountant. It’s chartered financial analyst. You should know that man.
I think the bots will be hugely impactful, BUT where will the materials come from to match the unlimited Bot labour?
As in Labour + Materials?
$200 /month for FSD is too high, Nothing konservative here Herbert The fleet owner must pay for the car??
20h? Charging and personal use pluss you will use your car in rushhour. Agree everything seams overexagerated.
robotaxi and bots are great , but are the charging stations underated as profits centers ? seems like they are the new oil as they sell e oil at market rate but buy almost free and store in the megapacks ? please do a exploration on this
well, the current filling stations for oil looks to be pretty profitable@@brunoheggli2888
For 20 years plus, I drove to/from work 50 miles per day. Going to the grocery store was about 6 miles per week. Going out to eat, was 5 miles per week and to the movies/entertainment was about 10 miles per week. 150+32+20+40=242 miles per month. 242*12=2904 per year. 2904*.15/mile = 5227.2/year in income. Not including entertainment income or productivity income. This is just insane!
50x20 work days=1000 miles per month work commute?
@@cragnap with a company car!
Wow. A paradigm shift in social organisation. Thanks for discussing tax. It's absolutely necessary and I'm sure Elon has already thought this through extensively.
I like how he describes all the values with extremely conservative numbers. -> Worst-case value of trillions.
I have almost exactly the same share value per number as he does, but I have completely different numbers that I calculate with :D
I think Cern has left out the effect of labor unions cut will be.
@silversclan what labor 😂 yeah millions will lose their jobs. Everything must be free at the end, on the way, a huge tax is the only way to distribute wealth. We will see.
@@silversclan Perhaps the bots will unionize!
mind blowing, the numbers have solid footing.
New industries and services we can't think of will come into existence. No shortage of human jobs in the future.
I was here before it happened.
Where are you charging at a rate of $0.15/kWh?
Great thinking! I can see Restaurant will have their app on the car and you can order and paid for the food while you get the ride to the restaurant. Hotel will have an app on the car they will allow you to check in, sign up for reservations and entertainment! Long range trip, can order a movie or play game on a robo taxi van! At less we can lease out the bot for home use! How would tesla implement the tesla bot data flywheels?
Commercial storage cost?
Car parks will be obsolete so they’ll transition to storage, valeting and charging.
So, I read thru the comments and did not see this question to accompany this great interview (Thx Cern) and the Cern and Boss models. Yes, Anything can go anywhere, but let's have some fun with one asssumption and question. I like the charts based on numbers and not timeline, but lets ASSUME (Yes, I know what assume means) that we meet the goal of 10,000,000 Robotaxis and 10 million Bots in five years, or the by Jan 2029. What P/E ratio do you put on these huge margins and what does that equate to in a stock share price for just these two legs of Tesla??
People bored and unemployed!. . .More Fentanyl please. Great logic shown.
What happens to personal economies based on labor?
Universal basic income will become a necessity.
Agreed, Real question is keeping most everyone high on the Maslow's hierarchy of needs otherwise chaos and violence. Real problem now, magnitudes worse as people lose need to work.
The government doesn’t “make money.” They need to pay for a guaranteed income + medical.
Tesla stock is a fraction of what it is worth in 5-10 years. There is nothing in the current valuation for FSD and Optimus, while these will be the biggest TAMs.
Cost of electricity to charge the bot?
zero with solar, wind and batteries
Is his middle name "particle"?
$1 a ride plus 10 cents a minute plus 20cents a mile that covers total O&M
Well, 15ce t Peter kW is charging at home. For robotaxi, you will have to use supercharger and it is at least more than double that, 35cent is normal.
Fleet operators will be highly incentivized to find the lowest cost of charging - they won't necessarily use Tesla's Superchargers as I assumed that each vehicle has 4 hours of downtime (for charging, cleaning) each day.
Damn I was planning a Bot army : /
I think every person would pay a few dollars to play games or see a movie during rides, huge revenue
Version 2 of my model considers these opportunities...
Tires will be an expense.
As investors though, will we feel the increase , because the harm that job loss seems so much more impactful to the whole human race , than the increase in stock prices by the bots, acceleration to its purpose, therefore, need to go to school to learn a new robot immune type of job or re arrange your life to expect robotic competition on our jobs.
This model has no annual depreciation at all?
Fixed this is version 2 of the model!
Think I paid 7:99 for internet on my last flight. Entertainment is something ppl spend a lot on
There may be laws created concerning the human right to; have an ability to make a living, engage in meaningful work, prosper.
It will be temping to put those kinds of laws in place, but the places that don't have those laws will draw economic activity away from those that do!
You considered Life of Bots & Capital cost per year for Bots Calculation. But didn't consider Life of Car & Capital cost per year for Robotax fleet owner. Will be probably around 10 years as well given the car will be driving itself 20 hours/day and 219k mile/year. Assume the car is the new platform (Model2/Q) coast $25000, then the fleet revenue should reduce at least $2500/year.
What was I missing reference the cost of asset acquisition (the Car)AND Depreciation Costs OR even Appreciation(??) of the Income generating Asset (The Car) . Tough assumptions required . If cost of Capital is 5% what is the value of an asset that returns say 34% of its capital value Per Annum and how does that Asset Act in a Balance sheet. AND imo 72% of Mileage being non income generating feels very High - the answer becomes location dependent (population density) in some areas the Car can be Parked awaiting the next client .
Very interesting, however, were I a Tesla owner I would not be willing to have my car used as a robotaxi for $4,000 a year. That would only cover it's cost in maybe 10 years and with the wear and tear from a 20-hour day that would be close to the life of the car. $7,000 would be worthwhile though.
In the early days the revenue opportunity could be far higher, but over time this is a scale business - one for large fleet operators who have the scale to drive down their costs.
robotaxi is fantasy
wow...he is amazing! congrats on landing the interview...great job Herbert
Very few will be a fleet operator for less than 20k per car per year in their pocket. People won't want to deal with all that headache for $4,329 per car per year. That's before hiring a fleet manager. As far as I can tell it's before paying the car payment. There is no profit in this model for the operator and there needs to be.
Fleet operators is a scale business. One EV making $4,000 per year isn't attractive but 1,000,000 EVs making $4,000 per year is! Also, I don't necessarily think that $4,000 per vehicle in profit is the right number - certainly not initially.
10 miles too high for average ride. NY average is 2.6 iles. I know they're very dense, but hard to see 10 miles
I think with the way it’s going, you will have to pay for an ad free ride.
I can see Tesla offering a membership fee (like Amazon Prime or RUclips Premium) for an ad free experience.
No one will let their car be used for a year if the return is less than 30% of the car's value, because there is a risk of a decrease in value. Normal depreciation is 30% per year.
??
If owning and committing a vehicle to the fleet is a low-risk investment, people will tolerate a much lower return on investment.