🚀 Modeling Tesla🤖Robot Revolution! You Ready?⚡
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
- #Tesla #Optimus #HumanoidRobots #PricePrediction #Modeling #CernBasher
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0:00 Introduction
0:50 Cern's Story
2:49 AI Robots Are Coming
07:12 Humanoid Bots - Ark invest view
10:25 Global Labor Shortage
20:04 What is Useful Work?
28:00 How many Bots will be made each year?
30:53 Humanoid Bots - Industry Potential
33:18 Bot Model - Comparison
38:16 Magnificent 7
42:55 Bot Deployment - Growth Pathway
48:34 Potential Global Bot P/E Ratio
49:59 Potential Global Bot Industry Profit vs Market Cap
53:16 Tesla % of Total Potential Business Value
55:55 Tesla Sources of Revenue
57:08 Tesla Modeling 
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This is INSANE. You guys are amazing and it's crazy that this information is free. The funniest part is that only a tiny fraction of the population would see this and realize it. Thank you 🙏🙏🙏
You rock 👌
Yeah, James should have had a following of millions by now... it’s so odd to me that he doesn’t
@@icarus166HE DELETES THE SCAMMERS!! he is a friggin Guinness
FSD is not here and we are talking about the Bot LOL
so true. too busy watching TV or scroooooling
Well said "stop spoon feeding Wall Street, let them do their own research"
Wall Street legacy business models for analyzing stock prices are broken, they need to start evaluating these exponential companies differently. DYOR please Wall Street 🙄
Thank you for this great interview 🙏❤️
@19:37, I would argue some companies treat us like robots already.
It's great to listen and watch to 2 clever numbers geeks playing with numbers like kids play with toys at Christmas! Great info, great alpha.
Best Bot breakdown in history😊
Thanks James and Cern! Excellent modelling.
The key to these disruptions is the enabling levers. What I see is that they are in in place. Once the levers are in place it's almost inevitable for the disruption to take off. For the first time in our history we have the pieces to create autonomous robots that can do useful work. Whether that is driving us around or completing tasks for us in our likeness. The smartest minds working with one of the greatest leaders we have seen are leading the most innovative company on earth to meet these goals. It's a wonderful time and like watching a great documentary of the most epic changes we are likely to see in our lives.
As you say James, when will Wall Street see it. The numbers clearly show it takes time to gain traction. But the innevitability is like a magnetic force no one can stop. My take is that Elon has learned how to play his hand of cards much better. He is holding all the cards now but has learned not to tell you he has them now. The Humanoids are comming and sooner than we all think. Unboxed and Humanoids will be a revolution and I think he wants to show that in action for the world to see. The machine that builds the machine. Wall Street, put that in your model...
Awesome stuff James and Cern. Thanks Guys. Much Love.
Such a freaking amazing video. Can’t thank you enough for all you do James.
20 shares of Tesla today potentially could be worth $1M in ten years per this modeling. WOW ‼️😎
MY MAN, James! I live for this kind of modeling. Thank you, fella; from MT.
Wow- $48K pps, somewhat sandbagged. Amazing, great analysis.
Awesome episode team! I’m so excited for the not-too-distant future 🙏🏻
There's a great review on the ALL-in podcast regarding the decision by Delaware's judge on Elon's compensation pkg, really good insight.
Both of you have substantial expertise on this subject. Even if you are 10% correct…OMG! Thank You for shedding light on this.
Fantastic show James, and the KPM is at full throttle for this video...Nothing like IA on YT. Appreciate you!
Incredible show, one of my favorite IA video.
Glad you enjoyed it!
I watched this twice and finally pulled the trigger today to subscribe to your channel after watching you for months. Well done
Yeah...just bought the tsla dip...when can we get an update on "retire on" series?
Outstanding content thanks so much for sharing your knowledge..
Thank you VERY much for this excellent one James and Cern !! Looking forward to see how this all turns out 🎉👍🏻
Hope you enjoyed it! I too cannot wait to see what the future brings. And he agrees with me that this is the asymmetric bet of our lives! 🙌
Lead the way gentlemen! Love the research and insight!
Cern is amazing
Another fantastic video as always James. Both informative and mindblowing. Exciting times 👍
Thank you James and Cern! Have you guys compared TSLA vs BYD? 👍🏼😊🚀
Incredible content thank you gentlemen
James the content is fantastic. Stop fussing with the display. Show the slides, and we can hear you guys.
Thanks guys 🤯🤖
Great work....Amazing work
Thank you! Cheers!
Learning about Tesla, for me, is like pounding down a gallon of coffee in less than 60 seconds.
Would like to see elon putting some of the key players in place and letting the public/investors get used to the idea of succession management. Key man risk is huge !
Elon is both the greatest asset and now increasingly, Tesla's greatest liability.
My two favorite analysts
Wow. Thank you guys so much
What a priviledge to spend time in the company of such intelligence and forward thinking gentlemen. That was most worthwhile and thank you from me and I am sure many many others. Bravo.
I've done well with Symbotic (sym)
Thanks!
Thanks for watching
Thank you James. I’m glad you asked about when Wall Street might wake up to TSLA potential. I want to go hard into LEAPS but am trying to get the timing right.
great info!!
AI military bots. They'll make those for sure.
Thank you both for enlightening me and others about this possibility.
Why I'm still hodling Tesla. They are uniquely positioned with AI, battery tech and manufacturing to profit from robotics. If they succeed... it could be the Ford Model T all over again. Brand new world.
Agreed, as long as Musk doesn’t keep doing stupid things to give governments reason to hate him so much. Wish that he’d speak less and focus on his work
Governments are corrupt and will be replaced long term in an ai driven world. Elon is doing the right thing. Stop being a pussy.
@@big_red_machine3547😆😂🤣
The Great Mattsby chart showed $3,000 share price by 2027 vs. your $3,351 by 2030. CERN model showed 90% of the revenue come from Robots/FSD/Robotaxi by 2030, which is not the case for your model.
Wow. Brilliant
Thank you, James. Absolutely great video. Whats crazy is after it being super sand bagged and if hou dropped that by 50% in 8 years the price will still be nuts! I can see now why it is your money maker bag. Unfortunately mist people will only see short term volatility. Love Cerns comment on it being a free options trade on bots and robotaxis! ❤
Very informative and insightful video.
Is this the base case, Bull case or Bear case?
🎉❤😊 Excellent presentation, James and Cern.
Amazing details in your projections for abundance in goods and services via bots.🎉❤😊
Thanks so much!
Tesla's AI could eventually become like the "Minds" in The Culture series of novels by Iain M. Banks. Your car books a top quality dinner for you and your love interest in one millisecond, while earning you 50x the cost of the dinner in the digital assets markets, as it drives you and your love interest to the luxurious dining venue.
Great content gentlemen and I Love the fine details.
You guys Rock! 🎉
Much appreciated!
Great content!
Buying today !
I think it’s was Joe Justice that threw out a stock price of 10,000 and More. You both have actually modeled it.
A delightful two hours spent in the company of intelligent gentlemen.
🙏 both for another challenging and brilliant session. 🚀
About then wallstreet take future in valuation, in my opinion, when product start be sold, FSD is product which is in "coming soon" for 8 years, so people start to ignore it, and when they start using it for robotaxi and/or it would be L4/5 by law, they will start to calculate profits, same with robots, they would not believe until they would go to sell and get review, and this will take few years, because is much more important to automate internal work.
Thank you for modeling TSLA. The opportunity is immense. I don’t see anything else like it.
The 10yrs numbers too big for my puny brain to comprehend … even if I discount the number 80%… the number is still mind boggling when compare to today’s price… anyway, I just hold and see what unfold, life sure is interesting
Awesome. Thank you -
You're very welcome!
Bot-tastic! Tons of info gentlemen.
Thank you James
Much appreciated gents!
Great vid
Woodshedding with James & Cern!!! Plus a Jedi-level question from James at 1:45:20.
👻🙌
Looks like Boston dynamics is going to be the one making the better robots
So 5x -10x roi per year per bot.
Do you think WS will see it and when?
I love u Master James! Master Jedi
I'm thinking of using my capital from the 21/22 to 25/26 crypto season to buy tesla. Also if we have the market correction as many are saying , should I wait for this to occur before buying - say 27/28 , and then buy and hold. It seems that 27/28 will be a good buying point for both crypto's and for buying good disruptive stocks to hold!!!! OH, mind boggling show thank you Cern and James.
Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now when you look at this projected actual value creation and the deflationary pressures that come with it, does that not affect your long term thesis and outlook on Bitcoin? Would love to see a show from you dedicated to this question.
Good point about the Rollercoaster ride. It can be real tough emotionally. Over the years, the times of FUD have been the best buying opportunities.
Sir, I'm used to adjusting my returns with inflation. For example, I would take the future's “expected/predicted” stock price of TSLA, let's say $4000 in 2034 and Divide it by “2.16” to get $1852 as inflation adjusted price.
(By assuming 8% inflation for 10yrs).
So the actual return is 9.26X instead of 20X from $200/share by 2034
But i think the discounting (dividing by 2.16) is a mistake, as Revenues, Profits & Stock Price can grow nominally with inflation as well. If yes, how much nominal growth-rate (due to inflation) can we assume for Tesla?
Sir can you please clarify this? Thank you sir.
Incredible alpha. Seeing Tesla is down today - time to buy! 😊
Great show! Go Tesla!
Information like this may help me avoid ruin during the next economic crisis
If population is greatly decreased, will the same products be in demand? As Elon says, birthrates - they are way down. How does this play into the equation?
There will be less young working people but more elderly, none working ones who will need to be taken of. So actually, there might even be more demand for Bots.
There are good arguments for why people will have more kids (bots can help, parents time is freed up to enjoy their kids, with greater abundance people are less financially strapped) and good arguments why they won’t (people will focus more on their own selves, concerns about a world dominated by bots, people don’t need kids to work or help take care of them when they are old).
@@CernBasher agreed that those things are true but with the declining fertility rates…
Greatly decreased in 10 years?
@@CernBasher and they just can’t afford them
Just Awsome.... thank you guys 🤙
One cant expect to increase the labor work force or increase apprenticeships and trade skill when damn robots are being pumped out to replace working people that put food on the table for their family
I know. It will take a very long time before any robot can equal a skilled tradesman
I'm sorry Cambell1,I am a Tradesman and these days you only need to watch youtube to learn something.Young people are lucky to get part time work. I worry about their 401 future.I tell young people to buy crypto. I am retired and luckily own my home with a pension. Going forward I worry for them.
@@leighcouper4594 agreed
Wow.keep stackin so
Microstrategy. What is going on? Did you consider that the ETF would tank it? Do you still think it's worth holding? Will it raise with bitcoin? Because it seems completely detached from it right now. What should the price be at right now? Where do you see it going? When?
You're a God. Thank you
let the man speak james,,his got a point
Remarkable discussion and insight thankyou guys, I’ve been red pilled. Serious question though, just playing devils advocate.
What is your honest belief would happen to Tesla’s future if Elon tragically passed away naturally or otherwise tomorrow? Dark I know, but worth considering when the company is so Elon-centric.
The credible and doable potential is so great, based also on Tesla Genius CEO that has stunned the auto , space, Mega charger FSD industry alone as a starter, that it is financially irresponsible not to get in to the stock as such an early stage.
James give us your insights about current tesla stock please
Have you watched any of his videos? Every other video gives his insight on Tesla from the view of a shareholder. I’ll summarize: Buy. Beyond short term volatility, Tesla share price over the next 10 years will appear to be vertical.
@mattbrown7753 I hope you are right, bro. I bought my last chunk on Friday at 184 but I would need some money out if it in 2-3 months and this stresses me big times.
Excellent video again James! Thank you
Hey James! What might be a good way to play Tesla's 2034 potential now, with, say, a modest bag of Tesla stock, but zero cash?
I have not seen it in your model but maybe I missed it, but should a robot tax be included in your model? Or some kind of UBI funding.
18:29 I used to work at target and they did not care about theft nor the gift card scam/fraud and! Employees would steal often. It’s in a rich area surrounded by more than safe local areas. People could come in with a loaded up card by stealing employees info all we could allegedly was limit them to one expensive item and one apple item per group. I’m talking thousands in just the first few months that was scammed away.
If roofers are replaced by robots, will the robots be programmed to whistle at girls walking by?
James - Have you been in finance and markets since you graduated college, or grad school?
All I worry about is who will benefit from the productivity that AI will bring? Will the rich just get richer and the poor get poorer?
Maybe in 2030 we will get a bunch of prototypes for specific usecases. I don't see how the timelines displayed here are realistic. This is MASSIVELY optimistic.
If we can make bets on timelines of such thing, count me in to take the other side.
Thinking about diversifying into Chinese ev and robotic stocks. There’s some serious players their
Love this one James! Thanks for facilitating this presentation!
Simply mind blowing ….. great work team IA
Great video! I must say comparing an iPhone which is quite simple in terms of complexity to a fully balanced robot with moving parts is just too unrealistic. Anything with moving parts degrades rapidly overtime. There are technologies that could be deployed such as graphite coated joints and hydrophobic coatings. But the cost would be extensive. The scaling of the model doesn’t work in terms of logistics and social politics. Energy usage on a 3rd of the workforce. If you make a 3rd of humanity redundant, most people will use more energy plus the inevitable charging of the bots. The battery life of the bots would also be an issue. There isn’t enough space on the bot to make it efficiently run for 8 hours. At lot of energy would be wasted due to the battery weight alone. I think the bots will be used for specific tasks.
Yes, they’d have to have those nuclear powered batteries in order to do anything useful
Do people actually think Elon and his army of engineers would be wasting time building iterations of the physical bot without knowing if they could power it?? My guess is they’re (or a partner/supplier) working on a high density battery technology that would be manufactured in smaller numbers initially, then scale as mass-manufacturing becomes feasible.
Any problem that we might think will be a problem, Elon knows already knows its not a problem
the numbers are CRAZY lol. Tesla would take over the world.
So if there is 100x upside potential, then Elon may be worth 20 trillions then? Is that real? My concern is that "they" won't allow this to happen..
Thats what im thinking also. How could he have That much Money, that would be as much as the 90% Rest of Humanity or something. That cant be Happening Right?
If businesses like walmart paid more, they would greatly reduce the turnover. Cost/reward?
TSLA 🚀🚀🚀🚀
👏
❤
Whats the biggest risks? Have we considered what happens if something happens to Elon?
👍👍
Per the modeling in this video, if Tesla gets to ~$48K per share by 2034, that would put it at a ~255x with a ~$152T market cap. There has to be something wrong with the reasoning here bc ~$152T market cap in 10 years is just so insane. Current world GDP is only ~$80T, for example. And if Tesla really starts to print money like that, the competition will be throwing everything they can for their piece of the pie. Humanoid robots are exciting, but there is a lot to think through here.
We don’t absolutely need to see faces. Slides first. Other stuff after you get up to speed. Please.