Tesla Bot Expert Shows Factory Tasks Optimus Will Do
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
- Robotics expert Dr. Scott Walter unpacks all the announcements and demos!
Scott Walter is an Aerospace Engineer with a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and has co-founded two robotics companies
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Optimus question was mine and it was actually top voted to #1. FSD will change transport, Optimus changes the entire world.
Thank you for the question!
Thanks and Congrats!
Actually Boston Dynamics will be changing the entire world. Optimus will be changing Tesla. Almost like when Apple & Microsoft were in the beginning. Guess who won?
Google was stupid selling Boston Dynamics to Hyundai & Steve Jobs was an idiot thinking software & hardware of a personal computer was something Apple should entirely own. I compare Tesla to Steve Jobs. In the end look who is at top: Microsoft. Boston Dynamics has the people to make that occur. Tesla has the humans they are trying to replace. Which company will win?
@cme98 Boston Dynamics will do well as everyone in the space that can provide any value. I would bet Optimus far exceeds Boston Dynamics in the medium term. I think production pre-scaled optical and computer is a far larger advantage than a decade of corriographed routines on a hydraulic platform, unless you like your robot dragging a power cord. BD has a lot to show to be a direct competitor. No doubt they kill it too.
@@cme98 Boston Dynamics robots cannot do what programmers did not program. That's the difference of end-to-end neuronet AI brings. We've seen FSD 12.3.5 can gain previously unknown skills.
Always great to see you two together. Thanks.
AGI bots will save a ton of money, but will ASI bots decide to go on strike for higher voltage or more charging time?
will you make a video talking about astribot s1? i would really love to hear scotts opinion and how he feels about the veracity of that demo, it seemed amazing but i dont see a substantial reaction from people, as if no one saw it or everyone dismissed it as false
I love talks like this with Scott. Great analysis
Yep Scott and Herbert, looking at past Tesla track record, I am also very confident that that Tesla and Bots and FSD will rule the world even before we expect at the moment. thanks for your knowledge it is very exciting listening to you two.
Wonderful guest. Love to see you talk with him James Douma and of course the maestro of production Jeff Lutz
Scott the holes in the cybertruck line that Sandy Munro showed us are another set of ideal locations for Optimus to work lifting and transferring moderate sized sheetmetal parts.
as soon as I can get a hold of it, an Optimus will be in my house
Perhaps 4 or 5 Tesla bots in the factory supervised by one human to do 5 times as much as that human could do at a time. That supervisor would be an expert worker that used to do that job. Massive productivity boost.
one thinkg I learned from gymnastics is to do a skill where you rotate and or flip you have to be tight fingertip toe but also able to bend and stay tight . a Humanoid bot should almost automatically be able to maintain this posture and control making turning twisting and even flipping much easier to do than a human... it will be all about the spacial sensors limiting those actions.
Another factor to add to the cost analysis is the actual factory work environment, have a robotics only area - no heat/cooling, no overhead lights, no safety barriers/sensors, less washrooms, smaller cafeterias, less parking, etc. All the costs to support the comfort and safety of humans. Working on same idea for mining, full autonomy.
When are you going to do a detailed break down of Chinese supply chains? It is good to see inside Giga Shanghai but it is all the suppliers in Shenzhen that will be making all the new actuators needed. Please can you interview somebody like Bunnie Huang or Zach Hoeken to get a low down on the local situation?
I said this 3 years ago: With his own brain Robots possibly with FSD help, one day they will be mining rear earths and extremely valuable minerals in asteroids and close planets. while a perfectioned FSD will be widely used in the whole transportation systems on the ground and on the air. Tesla valuation by then? Impossible to judge at the moment but it will be a gigantic conglomerate with revenues higher than a medium size country GDP.
Oh great. Then in about two hundred years all the Optimus bots will start acting out and then axing for reparations for how bad all the earlier models were treated.
Just imagine where the stock could be if Elon were silenced and lost his first amendment rights
If no one else is in those markets, they will be broken up long before that.
@@kurtgriffin8365 why I advocate for Tesla spin off operational divisions as separate business. I think NACS can stand alone and if it goes public with TSLA owns 49% with the BF balance of ownership is public. FSD can be configured for a next. Same ownership. You can see so many companies. And TSLA owns 49% of each. If it was done proactively, then DoJ and SEC would be assuaged and save a shit ton of legal fees and animosity.
Given FSD is almost there and the compute capacity for FSD and Optimus- how long until Tesla unveils the AirTaxi (initially for city center to airport type flights). Tesla should already have all the tech needed for short 10-20 minute flight - including battery tech. It would be a GREAT companion to Robotaxi (as last 1-3 miles inside city might still need to be by car)
In the Automation Cell, Tesla should Light up the floor red for 'Stop', Green for 'Clear'. That way they have a visual space while working in each Cell.
Show some recent , new may evolutions this bot can do! June suprises like next month guess of the a😮adjustments. Level of work assignments vs battery limits . Environment capabilities hot cold vs wet, dry, underwater. Distance from operator's position 1 foot vs 10k miles latency.
I think that an early use of Optimus will be to plug in and unplug Robotaxis at superchargers. Perhaps Optimus could ride around in Robotaxi S3XY's to close doors, be a Groq guide, pick up and deliver food/groceries etc
Tether charge at work station with bot plug/unplug control. Charge and work simultaneously. Unplug, move to new station.
:@22:00 perhaps an optimus bot that is not bipedal, with 4 wheels could handle bigger heavier loads? @38:00 bots assembling bots should be the ChatCPU moment for Tesla bots
Scott, I don't think that they will be producing the new 25 000 Dollar vehicle on the existing lines. I think that that are planning to do cheaper versions of Model 3 and Model Y using techniques and improved parts that they have designed for the new boxed version. This as an interim measure will produce cheaper vehicles very quickly and compensate for the very limited accessible market sector they now fall under. This approach also has an enormous advantage of testing new processes and parts before moving to the Model 2 ( I believe it will be called the Model P - The clue is in the SpaceX name format )
Do you need the safety cell at all if optimum is feeding the robot?
Very interesting, 5000 wow is that to equal revenue for replacement workers or anticipated increased revenue x fold
A good question will be which producer want take a bot in his manufacturing who record all he see and do and send the information to the bot producer.
Tripped over "Dawn Project", aka., Dan O'Clown, YT advert on FSD. Literally laughed out loud.
Elon talked about Tesla cars' computer power becoming a future product. So will the optimus robots too. thank you for a lovely show.
Optimus prob won't be used for distributed inference compute. It makes sense for cars cause they have a massive battery. Maybe while they're plugged in?
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Please how do I find this financial counselor?
I'd love to know this mentor of yours
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord!!!
Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
What can we do to increase the speed? Buy Boston Dynamics.
24:30 Agree FSD computer is 100 watts
Scott mentioned spinning on a dime. That's why I keep saying a humanoid top on a wheel base is great for factory repeated tasks.
How about opening a box and verifying that the correct type and quantity of parts arrived?
What are the best product ID AI vision systems that you have seen so far?
Can they count the number of beans in a jar yet?
I suspect the biggest challenge with Optimus is the new data set, as they don't have customers training a million+ bot fleet. I am most concerned with the inference as the physical bot abilities are easy by comparison.
Hey is Tesla heatpump technology integrated into the Optimus robot?
I wonder if some of the 10% layoffs are in anticipation of that Optimus might be able to replace those people as they ramp up later this year… maybe even right now and Tesla doesn’t want to disclose it due to the nature of layoffs
However, how can they produce Optimus first with a 10% layoff? Additionally, they need to manufacture the new model car, Cybertruck. Finally, the expected number of Optimus production is not met.
@ 25:00 Scott references an 8-hr shift -- why? Isn't that just a human construct? I suppose the more bots it takes to replace a human worker, the less capital efficiency. (still no personal problems, being late, drunk, family emergencies, etc.) Also, aren't managers really needed to deal with human problems?
A linguistic question. 1 Optimus, 2 Optimi?🤔
What if as some suspect that FORD might sign up for FSD they buy a first batch of Optimus? Now that would be a head spin!
I guess this is why they are not rushing the Mexico factory and it also hints at the reason behind the different cost profiles of early and full production "model 2" cars.
There seems to be much more competition coming for Optimus than there is for FSD. On the other hand there is likely much more demand and less regulatory hurdles. Also, many competitors are not able to scale. So Tesla is still in the drivers seat on bots. When do you expect Optimus to take and respond to verbal commands and be quickly instructed on multiple tasks without teleoperator training? Will grok be integrated into the Optimus for commutation purposes?
Look at Starlink. Not joking here - Starlink puts LTE satellites into orbit. So, put a LTE phone unit into any Optimus and you get an uplink to an AI. Grok can do visual now - I would wonder if the are not working on verbal and visual integration now.
I am starting to feel like this bot is going to be like the roadster... if you know what I mean? The roadster was shown, they drove people around, , and it felt like something that was in the works... Same with the bot. In a short time period they have come along way. But you would think after all these new bots been shown latley, some way more impressive than the tesla bot, that tesla would be encouraged to show something accully useful?... if by the end of this year they don't show in real time some impressive stuff with the bot i say its vaporware for now.
Optimus going to replace the 10% layoff
They (Tesla) are not going to Lease 'Optimus'. The most they will do is sell the Shell, and lease the service of control and learning capabilities, where they will have an Autonomous Pilot helping to 'Learn' Optimus (if owner of Bot does not have a Pimax Crystal like Me). This way if the Bot gets damaged in any way, the Owner will be responsible and not Tesla. Optimus Learning/Controlling as a Service makes more sense And the Selling of the Bot will be the way it is done.
21:00 I would challenge Scott's statement that power draw is a bottleneck. I don't believe it is for factory applications. Power is everywhere.
The future is now 🦾
Guys, Elon did use the word *sell* and he has used this word before in relation to Optimus. For commentators to simply reinterpret that word and insist he means *lease* is unwise, in my opinion.
Whatever happened to the wild wild West style steam powered bots? Lol.
Optimus won't need to leave the cell for his safety. All the safety SOP and devices in place to protect humans are not necessary if no humans are there
I would think that it would make sense to have a robot with swap out batteries like a battery lawn mower and have the bot swap it's own batteries
Great point, Terminator needs to be rated NR. Not for robots.
The operator had to push a button to tell the light fence he was clear ? OMG this is old fashioned, I working on these light fencing presses in the mid 80’s & as soon as your hand was clear of the light guard the press cycled automatically, that is really poor design at Tesla
12:55 - BMW won’t be able to automate because of unions.
The joke that the difference between Artificial General Intelligence and Artificial Sentiment Intelligence is going to be on us...
Actually, it is difficult to verify(just from a recorded video), if the robot is really capable or not. It is just like mindcontrol, which is essentially pre-trained behavior with correlated eeg data. It is also similar to ChatGPT seemingly a smart AI, but in reality very dumb.
The issue is how the robot got its capabilities, is it through self learning or guided learning. Self learning is difficult and takes much longer to evolve, but results in very organic motion, without pre-training. Not sure if Tesla's team is capable in this respect🤞. Also the vision system in a car is not suitable for a bi-pedal robot. We, as humans have a gimbal mounted smart camera with lots of hidden processing capabilites for a reason🤔. Just some 💭❤️👍
End of the year: Limited use in ONE factory - the next year total rollout. The Tesla jobs never come back.
Predictions for first Optimus buyers: SpaceX, Grimes (for performance art) and a few other friends of Elon with crazy ideas and a willingness to be basically beta testers.
테슬라봇2 영상 왜 안 나오는지? 테슬라가 일부러 감추는????
Tesla is stockpiling 2170 batteries from LG.
Once a robot can dress itself, button buttons, putting belt through pant loops, put on shoes and tie them... Only then they will be able to do ANYTHING a human can do. Such dexterity is quite a ways off.
Need to be pretty cheap...$100.000. 5 year payback and then...Money in the bank!!....Also, there needs to be work for displaced workers.
Unfortunatly a ton of the videos abailable for bots to train on are loaded with Violence and Evil or Illegal things for it to learn from... lets hope they NEVER learn those quality to pass on to their personalites when they become sentient!!!
Hmmmm, no the tesla bots are trained on the self driving data from the tesla cars. I've lived in bad neighbourhoods and I almost never see violence when driving through. They are also trained by humans wearing sensors and VR headsets controlling them. These bots are intentionally lightweight, slow, and easy to overpower. They can also be shut down individually from what I understand. You could make the argument when musks large language model is integrated, however at least his isn't trained to be politically correct (which is lying). It's optimised for truth seeking which is definitely important. Regardless once we develop AGI which could be used to develop ASI basically overnight it'll be up to the AI. It's risky however we'll all be dead anyway if we don't develop powerful AGI, or if not dead then just miserable. Most of us anyway. Maybe I'm just projecting. These robots were the perfect excuse for me to quit my miserable job unloading trucks all day. Not that I needed an excuse to quit.
Great point, Terminator needs to be rated NR. Not for robots.
Replacing the human in the cell with a humanoid robot .. is an inefficient process change. If ya got AI and vision, put that into the robot arm so it can pick up parts from a bin, instead of a precision fixture. This will be true for most factory automated processes .. ya just need "smarter" arms with more dexterity
An Amazon warehouse would be ideal for Optimus but Jeff will never buy Tesla robots :)
Question: if robots take jobs from humans, should robots pay taxes?
Elon Musk, says,
Elon Musk predicts,
Elon Musk promises,
Elon Musk says, full production next year, 20??
Boston Dynamics Atlas deliverers from the floor up 2024.
Maybe Tesla will buy Tick Tock in order to get a massive amount of video for training.
Or can Tesla crawl the web for free?
🤣😂🤣
Has anyone been testing a nuclear bot like Iron Man???
This would have been possible in the late 90s, it's just that microsoft and apple are too busy milking the operating system wars instead of developing ai and robotics.
My entire existence on planet Earth i have always heard the word “Humans” used to characterize us in the future fictionally or to describe us against other primates, usually in the past. That is until i watched this video & “human” was used to describe a Tesla employee in China when everybody else on planet Earth calls him a “person”. They also commented, “look at all the humans walking around” normal humans say “people” to give us character because they are working for a living. But if your job is to get rid of people, a term called “downsizing” the word “humans” still sounds demeaning & inappropriate. But if you are on the top floor of a Big Factory like Tesla, or maybe dream to be working on that top floor someday, & as you crunch numbers it’s apparent you can’t make a profit because of stupid crap like “payroll” & “benefits” & “overtime”, well then those people suddenly become disposable humans. And that is exactly what is going on here. You are talking about segregating humans from robots for “safety” & you dont even refer to humans as PEOPLE, or employees, or associates! Really? What planet are y’all from? Cuz here in Texas we call them folk people. Im all fine with the robot thing & I understand their importance. But in the meantime will you stop condescending people & call them people because we are all individual people not a flock of humans.
Tesla will not be just a car company, but also will sell services in AI, robotics ...
Elon always keeps his promises! For example, he promised NASA that he would land on the moon and the first quarter of 2024 and of course he did! Therefore, I have no doubt that all of Elon‘s promises about his robots taking over jobs in his factories in droves Will come true within the next few months! Oh hail, Elon! Oh hail, Elon!
Too many adds!
My theory is Tesla will make a training kits and sell with the bot. Also a bot skill store, where a skill developer can develop skills for the bot and sell it on the Tesla bot skill store Tesla will get a cut of the sale. To train the bot skill developers will have to upload their videos to tesla dojo training computer for training, dojo outputs the skill and add it to the skill store. Dojo will increase in size huge as more and more skill developers get on board. The reason skill developers are required because of all the use cases of the bot. Tesla will have to monitor the skill developers data make sure there is no skill being trained will be bad for human and society!
I wonder how many Optimi are standing over employees shoulders learning from watching (video training). Must be creepy 😬
If I am Jim Farley, I license all Tesla technology as it solves my labor/union problem and I go FORD brand as the skin
Elon Musk and Tesla takes their time to do things right and people call it late. You can rush anything out to market. Ask ford look at the Amazon home robot look at Apple Vision Pro, etc. take your time and do it right I want correct food, not fast food just some food for thought.
The human body is a weak machine. That’s why we make cranes and bulldozers. Humanoid robots look cool but as a factory worker it’s a weak design. Robots with wheels and multiple long arms are far more functional for a factory settings. Humanoid robots have to waste a lot of energy just balancing, not energy efficient. Humanoids will be good in a home, nursing home, hospital or hotel. Watch the factories not use humanoids in the long run.
Tesla Stock $2000 1Q of 2026 🚀
???
When can Optimus build an Optimus and self replicate?
By 2030 there will be over a million Optimus robots in private use in the USA. Cannot wait to see the YT videos of people dressing one up as OJ and having the robot chase their ex-wife or girlfriends from their car into the house while holding a rubber knife. 🙂
Tesla bots for the semi build!?, makes sense to build the new factory next to battery production due to volume but they have historically had labour issues availability in that area, makes sense the bots can do a lot of the assembly
There will be no Semi.