Onvo and Firefly forcing others to get on board with battery swap. It’s hard to compete with price when Onvo offers a 60 kWh battery and consumers can swap to a 150 kWh battery for long trips. It’s a huge moat….
Every week people making fuss about deliveries numbers and im literally pulling my hair out. In few years, NIO car manufacturing business will be after thought. Their profitable business going to be Power business and they have huge potential to make billions in profit in their power business alone.
You said you are not bullish on onvo yet (as a model/brand) but i think it is safe to say you are bullish on onvo as a "proof of concept" that nio swap system can be integrated in low(er) price models. Something was not clear until now. and something crucial for others in order to adopt it.
Alot of good news , plus sub brand launch , and it tanked , I now realize why it tanked this week , Tencent sold 28m shares , this is disturbing when bailey Gilford and tencent sell out , they sit on boards and know everything going on Us as retail investers do not know till it happened , again thanks for research and time you put into informing us Nio investers
Why these big boys sell their at Low prices? Surely these parties know Nio potential. Are they buying back at lower prices. Hence what are the main reasons. Amen om mani Padme hung
If legacy makers don t go into swap now, if they want to sell car in the futur in china they will have to ( for premium cars for sure). Then If they dont t want to increase their R&D, all their car will have swappable batterie...then who may win: nio.
Clearly the stock price is heavily manipulated. The entire swapping stations is a very important asset, hence needs to be valued as such at the stock price
thanks for the videos, do you have any thoughts on why Tencent sold in May 25million shares... they all seem to be selling at such low prices, surely they could have waited for a higher price to exit?
What are your thoughts on the risk of this becoming an "open" standard and NIO not earning any revenue as a franchisee? Especially in China where the philosophy of "shared social benefit" is often the way things are done. Could we see an outcome where NIO may lose its unique current moat and only gain in having a larger total # of shared swap stations for NIO/ONVO?
Private business is private business in China, and most of the time even more laissez faire than nowdays in the West. I wouldn’t worry about companies being incentivised to create and exploiting moats and monetising them. In China its all about making money.
@@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity Thank you, very informative. Can't wait to see what kind of financial arrangements there will be between state owned auto makers and NIO
BYD is the giant in China. I drove a BYD ICE car. Everything on it was pure junk. Suspension is worse than anything I have ever experienced. I will save how bad the ICE system was.
Consider if a major manufacturer like GM also owned all the gas stations that powered all makes of cars - they could then decide which business is more profitable and focus on that function. That is the power of the swap station! I believe that battery swap has even greater potential than car manufacturing.
Marcel, do you think any of the partners could be already contributing to the creation of the first wave of BSS 4th generation (1000! by the time Onvo starts deliveries)?
Currently, NIO is collaborating with 7-8 companies to establish standards for electric vehicles with swappable batteries. If standardization is achieved, consumers will be able to compare the benefits and convenience of swappable battery EVs versus integrated battery EVs, gaining direct and indirect experiences with the swappable option. This will likely lead to a preference for swappable battery EVs. Consequently, all electric vehicle manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz, will be compelled to produce swappable battery EVs, even if reluctantly.
I can imagine that if you want an entire country like France or Germany to run only on EVs, once that people owning a house have already bought their EV, the grid infrastructure cannot cope with such large number of new EVs, if its not by some kind of swapping system. Given that the chineese really intend to entirely electrify the whole country fleet of vehicles, they will sell us the model
If we have 500k swappers we will have 1.2billion yearly. That's 500k x $180month x 12months. That doesn't include selling back to grid. Currently 587 out 2400 swap stations do grid regulation! Future! Big $$$$$$
I never could understand what is the need of battery swap when you have battery charging under 18 minutes for 80% and when most EV owners charge from the comfort of home. You come home, plug your car, good night everybody, see you tomorrow morning fully charged. Maybe there is a need in China. Still, from what I saw those swap stations need to be manned to guide the drivers. This is uneconomical compared to charging. When charging technology improves and time to charge become ridiculously fast, what will be the need for these charging stations. They also have many moving parts which mean wear and tear and maintenance compared to charging stations. I really don’t get it. This will go the way of RIP Betamax !
Not every home has charging equipments, apartments mainly don't have. Battery swapping allows you upgrading technology, flexibility depending on your trip and higher resale value on top of not being responsible for potential damages. And many other advantages - just try to read more about it. Why would you wait 18 min if you can do it in 3 min!
I invision batterswap stations to serve as a advertising platform in the future bringing personalised ads - USD 500 pr day x 365 days x 10.000 chinese swap stations... lets goooo
I'm skeptical but maybe the density of the new BYD packs make them small enough that you won't have the problems Nio had on the first generation swaps where the battery didn't work great with the sedans. Just seems to me the 900 volt architecture, BYD's almost bullet proof battery architecture and DCFC makes swap a niche technology at best and not worth the design compromises to support a universal pack standard
Partnership are big and massive service revenues in the future but Onvo and Firefly are the biggest validation of Nio growth and become dominant smart vehicles player. No partner will give Nio respect if no one buy Nio cars and base on historical records Nio prolly able to deliver between 10-20K cars monthly. Onvo and Firefly will push monthly delivery between 30-50K in the future. You are very short sighted to think Onvo is not a major catalyst for Nio growth story.
Are we going to see the new swappable EV from Cgangan and Geely ( because they were the first ones to join BSS) in 2025? or at least see some kind of launch events in 2025 so that they can start delivery from 2026?
Wow even FAW joined! among all Chinese car makers, FAW is the first born.
The Godfather of EVs continues his march ! GO NIO !
Onvo and Firefly forcing others to get on board with battery swap. It’s hard to compete with price when Onvo offers a 60 kWh battery and consumers can swap to a 150 kWh battery for long trips. It’s a huge moat….
Every week people making fuss about deliveries numbers and im literally pulling my hair out. In few years, NIO car manufacturing business will be after thought. Their profitable business going to be Power business and they have huge potential to make billions in profit in their power business alone.
You said you are not bullish on onvo yet (as a model/brand) but i think it is safe to say you are bullish on onvo as a "proof of concept" that nio swap system can be integrated in low(er) price models. Something was not clear until now. and something crucial for others in order to adopt it.
Idd!
Good work as always Marcel 👍 . Thank you again for all your efforts. Oh and Thanks to the wife for putting up with it. Ha... Good evening.
told her :)
Is the snowball effect starting now? 😉 Don't forget to smash that like button!!!
I cant believe I'm the only person to respond to this! 👍 Only a matter of time! BAAS for all!!!!!
Alot of good news , plus sub brand launch , and it tanked , I now realize why it tanked this week , Tencent sold 28m shares , this is disturbing when bailey Gilford and tencent sell out , they sit on boards and know everything going on Us as retail investers do not know till it happened , again thanks for research and time you put into informing us Nio investers
Why these big boys sell their at Low prices? Surely these parties know Nio potential. Are they buying back at lower prices. Hence what are the main reasons. Amen om mani Padme hung
Thank you, Marcel!
If legacy makers don t go into swap now, if they want to sell car in the futur in china they will have to ( for premium cars for sure). Then If they dont t want to increase their R&D, all their car will have swappable batterie...then who may win: nio.
Clearly the stock price is heavily manipulated. The entire swapping stations is a very important asset, hence needs to be valued as such at the stock price
Nio can also be a battery supplier. Imagine the volume from all the partners 🎉
Short sellers are just too strong …. Dropping another 4% today….🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
They can't squeeze forever. Great chance to top up
It's because most of them are in the money, once trend shifts it will be fast.
And now they already feeling the heat. Short selling is mostly dumb, because you face the risk of limitless losses. Just go long and chill ..
thanks for the videos, do you have any thoughts on why Tencent sold in May 25million shares... they all seem to be selling at such low prices, surely they could have waited for a higher price to exit?
That happened in June 2023. Old news.
Yes that’s why I am worried for the upside for the stock price
What are your thoughts on the risk of this becoming an "open" standard and NIO not earning any revenue as a franchisee? Especially in China where the philosophy of "shared social benefit" is often the way things are done. Could we see an outcome where NIO may lose its unique current moat and only gain in having a larger total # of shared swap stations for NIO/ONVO?
Private business is private business in China, and most of the time even more laissez faire than nowdays in the West. I wouldn’t worry about companies being incentivised to create and exploiting moats and monetising them. In China its all about making money.
@@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity Thank you, very informative. Can't wait to see what kind of financial arrangements there will be between state owned auto makers and NIO
Please explain why you think Tencent and Bailly Gifford sell millions shares. I think they know much more than we do. That’s worrying me
Wonderful research....thank you as always.
Another BYD dealership in Fujian burnt down. I wonder why BYD is still top seller in China.
BYD is the giant in China. I drove a BYD ICE car. Everything on it was pure junk. Suspension is worse than anything I have ever experienced. I will save how bad the ICE system was.
Consider if a major manufacturer like GM also owned all the gas stations that powered all makes of cars - they could then decide which business is more profitable and focus on that function. That is the power of the swap station! I believe that battery swap has even greater potential than car manufacturing.
Marcel, do you think any of the partners could be already contributing to the creation of the first wave of BSS 4th generation (1000! by the time Onvo starts deliveries)?
yes
Currently, NIO is collaborating with 7-8 companies to establish standards for electric vehicles with swappable batteries. If standardization is achieved, consumers will be able to compare the benefits and convenience of swappable battery EVs versus integrated battery EVs, gaining direct and indirect experiences with the swappable option. This will likely lead to a preference for swappable battery EVs. Consequently, all electric vehicle manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz, will be compelled to produce swappable battery EVs, even if reluctantly.
Nice discussion Marcel, very very interesting and strategic outlook.
I can imagine that if you want an entire country like France or Germany to run only on EVs, once that people owning a house have already bought their EV, the grid infrastructure cannot cope with such large number of new EVs, if its not by some kind of swapping system. Given that the chineese really intend to entirely electrify the whole country fleet of vehicles, they will sell us the model
As I mentioned many times before: Nio is an energy infrastructure company first, a car producing company second!
Nio battery swaps will make them millions yearly.
SOME CALCULATIONS of the profit potential for Nio of joint swap stations?
If we have 500k swappers we will have 1.2billion yearly. That's 500k x $180month x 12months. That doesn't include selling back to grid. Currently 587 out 2400 swap stations do grid regulation! Future! Big $$$$$$
And this is only prediction for this yr. I heard 2030 battery swap is 46billion industry!!!!
I never could understand what is the need of battery swap when you have battery charging under 18 minutes for 80% and when most EV owners charge from the comfort of home. You come home, plug your car, good night everybody, see you tomorrow morning fully charged. Maybe there is a need in China. Still, from what I saw those swap stations need to be manned to guide the drivers. This is uneconomical compared to charging. When charging technology improves and time to charge become ridiculously fast, what will be the need for these charging stations. They also have many moving parts which mean wear and tear and maintenance compared to charging stations. I really don’t get it. This will go the way of RIP Betamax !
Not every home has charging equipments, apartments mainly don't have. Battery swapping allows you upgrading technology, flexibility depending on your trip and higher resale value on top of not being responsible for potential damages. And many other advantages - just try to read more about it. Why would you wait 18 min if you can do it in 3 min!
I invision batterswap stations to serve as a advertising platform in the future bringing personalised ads - USD 500 pr day x 365 days x 10.000 chinese swap stations... lets goooo
I'm skeptical but maybe the density of the new BYD packs make them small enough that you won't have the problems Nio had on the first generation swaps where the battery didn't work great with the sedans. Just seems to me the 900 volt architecture, BYD's almost bullet proof battery architecture and DCFC makes swap a niche technology at best and not worth the design compromises to support a universal pack standard
Some good thoughts.200k or 300k swaps per day or more one dollar profit per swap everyday!😳
When Tesla?
Thanks for the video Marcel! BAAS for all!!!!!
Thank you very much Marcel. Thank you for the great work you put into telling us about your thoughts about Nio😊
Hi Marcel, Hongqi came out with their first battery swap vehicle, EHS7 SUV. Do you happen to know if that is NIO standards?
Its not. Hongqi has been doing Battery Swapping since a while but not on this standard.
Standard is coming, we've known that for some time. Nio franchise this Standard!
Partnership are big and massive service revenues in the future but Onvo and Firefly are the biggest validation of Nio growth and become dominant smart vehicles player.
No partner will give Nio respect if no one buy Nio cars and base on historical records Nio prolly able to deliver between 10-20K cars monthly. Onvo and Firefly will push monthly delivery between 30-50K in the future.
You are very short sighted to think Onvo is not a major catalyst for Nio growth story.
Marcel!!!! Not narrow minded! Haha 🤣 This is why you do the videos. If I did the videos I'd be brash! Like wake up you fools! NIO OR NO GO!
Are we going to see the new swappable EV from Cgangan and Geely ( because they were the first ones to join BSS) in 2025? or at least see some kind of launch events in 2025 so that they can start delivery from 2026?
The only shocker is that it took china so long to come out with a standard.
👍 🎉🎉 🚀💰
Then tesla ?!?!! I am not sure they will go to swap. But Tesla against chinese, who wiould win?
Tesla sales are down huge in China this year. Great stuff.
Lidar = fool`s arrand..
Battery swapping = fool`s arrand..
Apply First Principle to workout why..
🪫🔁🔋🏁
Nothing here that we do not know already
How’s the baby?
Thanks, she is happy!