It's kind of refreshing to hear a corporate implosion story that boils down to "things aren't working out" and not "massive fraud" or "unbelievably stupid ideas".
I think if Nio can weather the storm they'll be ok because a lot of those startup EV brands in China are already closing down since the government is started to crack down on the companies that are just making cars for the subsidies then dumping the vehicles in fields to rot. Nio is actually selling vehicles and their vehicles are actually made well so that makes China look good and they need companies like Nio for their for their image, so the CCP may not let them fail.
Maybe it is right for the Hefei municipal government but it isn't for CPC. China already has at least 10 same-level EV companies just like Nio ranging from well-established legacy automakers such as GAC, Geely, SAIC, and BYD, to start-ups such as Xpeng, Leapmotor, and Li Auto. Nio is far from too big to fall, and if Nio issues a bankruptcy government probably will sell the valuable assets of Nio to other Chinese EV companies instead of bailing them out with a high price tag.
Hats off to the drone pilot for that slick fly through the hatch and out the window. Very easy to get wobbly in an enclosed space and thrown off by your own prop wash.
In all fairness, NIO has recently received a production licence in China, meaning they will no longer have to use JAC's licence. Whether they can turn this around though is a completely different question given the competition and various other issues
Thank you for the video. Car manufacturers in 1903 went through the same shake out. there were 80 in 1903 and it would grow to over 300. Can you blame them? All the horses were going away. NIO, like any new company in a new industry (EV's) had to find their way. When starting up the investor pitch was beautiful high tech luxury cars and they were. This pitch worked and the market timing for the product was correct. New companies make mistakes and, although the results aren't in yet, battery swapping may not prove out. The majority of the money invested in EV battery tech is going towards faster charging/lighter/cheaper/longer range. EV batteries are in the process of solving the problem addressed by swapping. I think NIO has a strong enough brand and product quality to survive, but tighter money policies won't help them. I think more money was burnt with new model development than any other activity by NIO. Getting a new car ready and releasing it is fabulously expensive and NIO brought out numerous models. Henry Ford and Musk illustrated the best way to make money is to avoid the cost of new model development. As the EV market is nascent Musk gets away with avoiding new models. It will take years to get the money back on cyber truck, but they can afford it now....sort of. Yes the Chinese EV market will shake down as startups close or get bought out. We'll see about NIO.
You leave out one important point; battery degradation. Over 5 years the degradation of a Tesla battery renders the car useless. The superior model is battery swapping.
@@hzleyes7087 At 12.5k miles per year it would take the average American 16 years to reach 200k miles, at which point the vehicles will still have an average of 88% battery life remaining. With the high starting range of Tesla vehicles, most of them will likely still be used as commuter cars when they are 30 years old.
This reminds me of the great e-bike gold rush from the 2010s: Way too many people in China decided that copying Lime was "the future" and so suddenly there were so many e-bikes being produced that cities had to start collecting and crushing them because every tourist destination was flooded with rental bikes (most of which wouldn't even start because the companies that made them went under already).
@skully i used to live in Beijing just before and during the pandemic. It was both. The streets were flooded with regular bikes, ebikes, and rentable mopeds. Now a days you can see Didi branded mopeds still flooding the streets with meituan escooters. However, I've not seen rentable bikes in a while. Even when i go to the tier 1 cities (i live in a tier 3). It's a lot less then it used to be. I remember there was an issue where they got rid of their monthly subscriptions, you could get unlimited rides for like $15 usd. After that bike shops started to sell lots of bikes. They also increased the price per km
@@backlogbuddies did you see that OP is talking about 2010? Sharing bike economy stabilized before pandemic. Before 2019 a lot of companies existed just for 1 year. Didi, meituan, alipay bikes are existing already like 4-5 years. And shared e-bikes appeared around 2019 only.
I don't think the CCP will let Nio fall, most likely they will help them establish their own EV factory. Nio is one of the few Chinese EV car makers that are making reputable cars and actually have a tangible customer base, most of the other EV makers are just there for the subsidies. Nio is solid, just a few rectifications and its good to go
You forgot to mention that NIO has 6 billion in cash, two partnerships (and others in the process) for battery swapping, and NIOs sub brand launching in 2024.
@@MaticTheProto Nio shares are down 30 or 25% since my comment. Is it really blah blah? Maybe they will survive, but you should never buy a falling knife like NIO right now when the rest of the market is in a bull trend. Buy if NIO ever shows sign of a positive trend.
I watched a video today on NIO and now charge for battery swap out and they've introduce and a longer distance battery. I can't seeing this failing. The video showed an incredible infrastructure for charging and swapping. I think the battery swap in the game changer. If you consider repairing a battery in North American to be in the 20k if you get a lemon. At least in Canada we lack lack the infrastructure.
I actually really, really like this business model and i hope they turn things around. I also thought to myself 🤔"There should be a car with a swappable battery and battery availability as commonplace as an oil change." But nobody in the US has done it.
@YourFreakingDaddy it does, you charge then a convenience fee, 20$ to50$, similar to what a gas-filled up will cost or they can wait for the battery to charge, Most people because of the time, will choose swapping
No you have a lot to learn. Battery swap is superior because you eliminate the battery degradation. What you have after 5 years of Tesla ownership is a battery that takes longer to charge with diminished battery charge.
@@hzleyes7087 Somebody has to bear the cost of battery degradation. Imagine you as a customer getting a battery swap and finding that the new battery has greatly compromised storage capacity, giving your car 50% of the expected range. So the burden has to fall on the manufacturer to keep from pissing off their customers, they have to do extensive quality control and retire bad batteries. Any new battery that you get in a swap could have been abused and is a potential firebomb waiting to turn your car into a mobile crematorium. What level of capacity loss would you as a consumer be willing to accept? 10%? Assuming you can count on 200 miles range with a new battery, what if you get a battery that is 10% down on capacity, and it leaves you stranded 20 miles out in the boonies? The company then has great incentive to retire batteries that are almost new and has to bear the cost of recycling. And also consider they have to bear the cost of charging the batteries they are keeping in inventory, and the cost of installing the infrastructure for charging 10, 20, 30 batteries is significant. Keep in mind that the battery comprises about 1/3 the total value of an EV, so when you see a rack of 30 batteries in a swap establishment, that's the value of about 10 new cars. Getting a battery swap is not the same as getting an oil change or filling the fuel tank in a combustion car. The company has to take into account all of that liability into the purchase price of the car, or the rental fee of the swapped battery, then that cost is passed on to the consumer. If you're going to embrace battery swapping, that means you no longer own the battery, you're renting it. Then the swap establishment would have a rental agreement that puts substantial penalties on any damage occurring to the battery while it's in your possession. If you run over road debris and dent the casing, you would have to pay for the damage to what could be a ruined battery. Then you could be paying for basically 1/3 of a new car.
They certainly have intense competition these days, but bit of a stretch to say a company that just delivered record vehicles and doubled their revenue in the last quarter failed.
. . .but they didn’t! Sales have fallen since last year & their operating deficit is growing. They’re being out competed, in the higher end EV segment, by Li Auto (nothing to do w/NIO, though CEO’s share same surname), Zeeker, Xpeng &, of course, Tesla. Here in Beijing, I see far fewer new NIOs these days than 2-3 years ago.
Things will be turned around in the next year by i) Very affordable cars of a new brand called "Alps" will be in the market soon; ii) Their swap stations will be a new standard in China that provides electricity services for many cars of other brands, supported by the government. Besides, the information given in this video is incorrect. They offer so-called BaaS (Battery as a Service) you can pay USD 33k (ET5T) for a car and rent the battery service at USD 128 per month for unlimited swaps. They are making a lot of money every day from the battery service. They have so far implemented 2.3k+ swap stations, which cover almost all entrances of national highways and allow users to do the swap in less than 5 minutes, i.e. truly solve the range anxiety problems of electric cars.
Good luck getting competitors to use their standard. Also, cars/SUV/truck/sports inherently can't use the same one size/shaped batteries. That means they have to have multiple of each sized batteries, very expensive assets just sitting around at each station. This isn't cheap gasoline that can fill any sized/shaped fuel tanks. This looks like a poorly thought out financial plan to me.
@@xiphoid2011 ES8, ES6, ET5, ET7, etc. Nio has proven that cars of different sizes can share the same-size batteries. Not sure if the 4th gen. swap stations would incorporate batteries of different sizes but guess that national standards must be well-set to accommodate the financial concern. Gasoline cost used to be at least 3 times to consumers in China and thus swap stations should be the future even if it's costly at the setup (mind you, fast chargers are also available to other electric cars without swapped batteries for more revenues, thanks to the electricity supplied by the swap stations).
@@nobigdealllllIt hasn't proved anything at all, just all similar sized cars from 1 company can use one sized battery. Logically, a big SUV cannot use the same battery as a small car, and a small car can't fit a big battery of a truck. Even simple phones of different sized can't use the same sized battery, with a larger screened ones need a bigger battery. Then there is the shape of vehicles also dictate different battery sizes, a tall tuck has a different sized battery shape than a low sports car. This is why we have AAA, AA, C, D sized battery standard in the world, and a battery swapping stations would need to have several of all of the different sizes, which is just expensive unproductive assets sitting around while losing money. Your argument is logically wrong and financially unsound.
I wish European carmarkers had adopted such a battery swap system, standardized between all brands. That would increase the adaption of electric cars significantly and boost the secondary market. At the moment, hardly anyone dares to buy second hand electric cars as the condition of the battery is a gamble, and swapping the battery costs as much as a used car.
that's exactly why, battery swap is not profitable maybe the middle ground is to give cheap battery replacement so that second hand buyer don't have to gamble
Perhaps this is the reason why it never happened. The battery degradation costs go towards the battery swapping company. They would need to mark up the price in order to compensate for the degradation. And if my napkin math is correct that makes the charging price comparable per km with petrol vehicles.
It would not. If it can't make at least 800 km then the vast majority of people won't buy it. I won't spend my time every 2 hours at some charging station when I want to get to my destination ASAP. Also, Electricity is more expensive than Diesel or Benzin. Everyone I know who owns an EV owns it as a second car and still has a Bezin/Diesel car at home. EV Project is gonna fail no matter how much our political elites are pushing for it.
@@saellenx3528 they will still exist, just not for absolutely every person, but rather just important person or ambulance for your average joe, public transport is cheaper, both for the government and the user
@@saellenx3528 If the car could go 300 to 400k and then needing a 5 minute battery swap that would not be an issue for most people. Most drivers would like to take a break anyway. It is only the prolonged charging breaks that people dislike. Price of the fuel also depends on your country and the taxes. The daily expense of EV is lower in countries with high fuel tax.
Tesla toyed with the idea of battery swaps, but every battery that sits in a re-charging station is one less car Tesla could sell. Nio decided they had better math.
@@williamstriker2299for battery swap to be the future, there has to be a standard on battery pack, and a standard on platform design. That isn’t happening.
NIO's financial situation presents significant challenges. Their debt burden, amounting to $6.55 billion, far exceeds their cash reserves of $3.1 billion. Furthermore, their gross profit margin of 13.5% falls short of covering their expenses, let alone their debt obligations. These financial strains, coupled with intense competition from Chinese automakers like BYD and XPeng, cast a shadow over NIO's future. Without addressing their financial woes and differentiating themselves from the competition, NIO faces an uphill battle.
Nio has not failed at all. The company is investing to build a solid base for the future. a Half of spendings goes for aggressively expending charging infrastructure (one of the largest in China,), a huge amount of money spent for creating own OS (SKY) , next gen superchargers, new vehicle platform (with full over-the-wire control), lidar chip, FSD chip, 150kWh hybrid ssd battery, two mass market sub-brands etc. The list can go on. It is normal when money are spent on developing leading initiative solutions (Tesla a good example of it). Never listen to any fools who are saying that this company is done, because they only can see 1-2 quarters ahead. They do not know what the are talking about.
@@waynerussell6401 I am following their utter failure to deliver full self driving. Just like everyone else. And the fall of their stock price by a third year-to-date.
@@TacticusPrime Tesla has the best ADAS available and an extremely capable autonomous driving system that is capable in all driving scenarios at low cost and entirely scalable. The leading application of GAI and accelerating in performance at an incredible rate. So not following at all! A massive buying opportunity due to the knowledge gap like your own! Watch one of the huge number of reviews of V12...
That's really interesting. Going by your video there was nothing wrong with the business plan of Nio when they started. But the market has grown in a way that emphasizes value rather than luxury brands, and because of the decisions they made at the beginning of the company (battery swap stations and licensing out manufacturing) they just can't compete in that space. I wonder if some kind of reboot is possible where Nio invests in a factory of their own and builds a cheaper EV that can compete with others on the market. It would be a massive pivot and a tremendous gamble, but given the way things are going that might be better than just waiting to go bankrupt.
There are EV manufacturers in China that have own factories before nio existed. It looks as usual attempt to jump into market on high expectations meanwhile your competitors already are making work horses.
It's hard to reinvent the brand but not impossible but Nio probably think they are safe right now because of multiple bail out. It's hard to change the way of business when you think you are not in crisis
The video doesn't mention it for some reason, but they are doing exactly that. They purchased the factory from JAC recently, and will expand to lower price cars with a brand called 'Alps' or 'Firefly'.
@r09d98 Don't understand reason for these swapping stations. Modern 800 V systems just take 18 minutes charging 10 to 80 %.....without a building or personal needed. Really screw off & on your battery, to save 10 minutes?? And you have to drive to this place....somewhere in the middle of an industrial space. They solved a problem by high costs, which is not a real problem.
What if Tesla buys Nio, implements production system and Tesla incorporates battery swap into new Tesla models? Swapping is equal to refueling at gas stations and convenient.
No mention of their capital expenditures? They just purchased the factory from JAC, and continue to rapidly expand the power swap station network, that probably answers for most of the losses.
Bagholder here. Tons of reasons, but two I’ve noticed recently is Zeekr (backed by Greely) outperforming them in their segment and the massive Capex to build the swapping stations. A painful lesson to learn.
Nio is definitely a potential growth company to be on the look out for. Comparing it to its peers who strictly manufacture EV vehicles, it ranks fourth in my analysis
Nio actually sold over 160,000 cars in 2023 (up 30%) with some very interesting models and many see its products today as equal or superior quality to Tesla. they have some truly innovative solutions and products but it is true it is a crowded market. Can it continue to burn cash? well one of the UAE shareholders invested another 2.2 billion last month so that gives more time. and they are only a 7 year old company. In any case they are one of the top 5-6 bigger / most interesting EV makers in China along with BYD, Xpeng, LI, Aion, and some of the SAIC and Geely brands
I just don't understand what they are thinking. Why invest so much into battery swapping technology and stations? They sell luxury premium cars so not many people will even be able to use them. Not to mention charging speeds are getting faster and faster to the point where battery swapping will be of no use. The only thing they have going for them is their good brand image of high quality cars and even then instead of using the Nio name to design and sell more affordable cars, they plan to create sub-brands for that. Please wake up William Li.
Partnerships and the new cheaper sub brand is forming. The infrastructure is there for battery swap. If you build it they (other companies) will come? We'll have to wait and see.
From the business standpoints, the company is just cash burning.,but for the consumers, it is one of the best EV in the market. Been to their showroom a few months ago, and sit in the ET7 for a while, absolutely blown away by how good it is. We own a Mercedes E which is comparable to the price of ET7, and our Mercedes E looks like a joke compare to the ET7. It is very comfortable, packed with Tech, one of the best sound systems and elegant design. I hope they could enter more western countires beacuse they are just so much better than the traditional auto makers such as BMW, Lexus and Mercedes.
The travel assistance by traditional brands is much better. And you find a garage at every corner. And they keep their value and there is parts security for service. Whenever NIO might go bancruptcy what value is there anymore? Or US starts embargos/war? against China (next year?)
If I'm on a road trip, or in a rush I would love swappable batteries. A mixture of that and lots of charging stations is what we need. Even if it costs a few dollars extra it's worth it
Yeah, right, the infrastructures needed! Wouldn't work...unless there are standardised battery sizes, to suit every makes/models. But I doubt the myriad companies will standardise battery sizes
The nio cars in Denmark is too expensive for most people. Even though people have a good income here. Prices exceed 600,000 Kroners and most people want cars for about 500,000 or less. And the battery swap service is too expensive here. I would probably only use it once or twice a month. Fix the prices!
I’m not sure if they can recover, but I hope they do. A few years ago, my uncle bought a very cheap EV when I was visiting families in Beijing. The car was so cheap I privately mocked him for buying a “toy car”. But it was surprisingly good for the price when I actually drove it. Iirc it was about 5000 USD including tax and fees. China’s EV market is insanely competitive. Lots of decent EV companies are now being absorbed by larger and even more competitive ones.
I still believe Nio has great potential, especially with the battery swap. If this tech comes to the US, I think it would shake up the EV and ICE car market.
They do build good cars, i think if they switch back to battery charge isn't gonna be too big of a deal. Lol Also 80% of the Chinese area driving EV in China. My friend just went back last month. He told me not many people driving Japanese cars anymore. Only Chinese brands and European brands.
this makes sense, people buy japanese cars for affordable and reliable. chinese cars will definitely be more affordable in the home market, and if something breaks down the factory repair is probably right around the corner lol. euro cars still dominate the luxury market and is a status symbol so they're going to stay a very long time
I respect nios decision to allow for battery swapping and wish it could take off here in North America. Tesla once touted it as a fantastic way to crush the range anxiety fears, but scrubbed it once they realized it would keep people from replacing their teslas on a faster schedule. For a company that advertises itself as being environmentally friendly, you’d think that having people buy less cars would be something to encourage - but no one’s really that naive are they
Drew Baglino, Tesla’s VP of Powertrain and Energy, has addressed why Tesla dropped battery swap. Tesla didn’t drop battery swap for the reason you stated. They did so because it makes no financial sense vs charging. There’s a whole host of issues with battery swap, but one of the biggest issues is that it negatively impacts model differentiation. If Tesla kept battery swap, then all Tesla models would have to use the same batteries, which is a horrible idea. Imagine having a 58 kWh Model 3 LFP battery in a Model S or Cybertruck. The Cybertruck would be a very uncompetitive truck vs having the high nickel 123 kWh 4680 battery pack that it has now. NIO basically screwed itself in that they aren’t able to differentiate their models as much as BYD, Tesla, Li Auto, Zeekr etc. All of NIO’s cars have to use the same batteries for their battery swap system to be financially viable, but then their cars will be less competitive due to not right-sizing battery packs for different designs/form factors.
The 2023 run rate you presented is complete BS. They haven't posted their Q3 and Q4 reports which is why the revenue in the chart is only around $5B. They are set to have around $8B in revenue with about 160K deliveries in 2023.
Conveniently leaves out them building their own factory or that they "lose money" on each car because they invest so much and are innovating with every new platform and anything that goes against the narrative of bankruptcy. Like it or not they ain't going nowhere.
Battery swap is the future Nio Is ahead of everyone remember ,batteries are catching fire and the Chinese government are going to do regular inspections on batteries because of the fires that are going with EV’s. with battery swap, the inspection will pass with ease because as we all know, the batteries are being recharged and inspected in the battery swap station that’s why they are two car companies that sign with Nio to do swaps on their brand of cars. Of course they will be a fee for the battery swap that will go directly to Nio Which would be preferable . And there’s three other car companies that want to join Nio and take advantage of this advanced technology, it’s the smart thing to do because once the Chinese government starts to regulate expecting batteries Nio will be way ahead everybody else.
the nio would succeed if huge import tariffs would be cut... most countries are afraid of Nio. their cars are too good! the good news is that Neo sales in China are going up..!
The difference between nio and tesla is that Tesla has received more than $3.2 billion worth of direct and indirect California subsidies and market mechanisms since 2009
Not to mention over 20 billion more in profit simply from selling a superior vehicle. Any other maker could have gained those credits, instead they pay their competitor millions. Not a very smart move by legacy OEMs
The reason why they start high and go lower is not only because of mass production scaling but also because the perceived luxury branding. At a higher cost people believe that Tesla is fancy but now anyone can afford one.
Do you think buying puts on EVs is good idea and which companies you think are gonna be bankrupt soon? I have a small amount and think to go for lucid?
11:53 They should start in Germany , place where plenty of people drives real fast . Northest stations should be near Oslo and Stokholm and southest on Florence, Rijeka, Marselie, Lyon
I never could have imagined that the HFCCA would be a catalyst in taking down the Chinese markets. I invested in NIO and KNDI. I'm just thankful I didn't invest more. That money was wasted: I could have bought more shares of Tesla, Nvidia, AMD or Micron
I bought at $6 and kept adding whenever I got my paycheck. Then I sold at $50 because it stopped going up. So happy I had cashed out, but hope NIO can make a comeback
Nio es una empresa protegida por el gobierno Chino y cada vez venderán mucho mas. Recuerdo que son vehículos de lujo y no vehículos corrientes. El próximo año venderán coches báratros mas otros productos. Siempre dicen que en China esta en crisis económica, ¿pero quien compra la deuda Americana?¿¿? los Chinos... NIO en 2024 crecerá y me pasare desanduvo por este canal. Nunca vi una empresa tan atacada como esta. En fin El tiempo nos dirá quien tiene razón. Saludos
You are just a fool. As long as Chinese companies, no matter which one, do well, you will say they are controlled by the Chinese government. This is what Westerners call spreading rumors and smearing fear that Chinese enterprises will surpass you in terms of development. Having strength should lead to fair competition, rather than tarnishing business and politics, which is completely different.🤮
Typical misconception. NIO doesn't lose money on sale of the car, it wouldn't make sense. Typical manipulation/stupidity. NIO mostly lose money on R&D, the cars make profit but not yet enough to cover all expenses.
It will be a pity if the company can't improve their shortcomings. I super love this brand and mostly this ET5 model I think is way better than a lot of EV cars brands in China.
No one could imagine how competitive the EV market would become in the PRC. Their best choice is to sell a majority stake to a megacap that wants to increase their profile: money is tight.
Just to set some facts right: In Q3 2023, NIO lost around 11.000$ per car instead of the mentionned 35.000$. NIO will aquire the 2 factories with all the equipment of JAC for around $440 million. NIO has the most developed swapping AND charging infrastructure in China! Well structured video and nice to watch. Only thing there is to mention that the informations in this video are very superficial.
Nio will be massive! Sales April 24 up 134% YOY, Strategic battery swapping partnerships confirmed with Changan automobile, Geely group, JAC group and Chery, also looking like with the largest car company in the world BYD!!! Launch of ONVO sub brand into family mass market this month and direct competitor to Tesla model 3! Now over 2500 battery swap stations in China and started european roll out, massive investment from the Saudi Arabia and huge cash reserves. The penny hasn’t yet dropped for many investors, this is the Only car company building long term continual annual recurring revenue through its BAAS technology and subscription services as well as its development of a large scale standardised power network. Don’t believe the doom mongers , things are just getting started!!
The funny thing: over the summer I bought a put for like 2 weeks. It was a 6$ out and it just went IOM this week, had it not expired. Lol now my brokerage knows I know what I am talking about but I was still right Summer '23
no, the idea is great. Its even enviromentally friendly in theory. Especially if you can recharge the batteries. But reality makes this very expensive. Which makes the whole thing not sustainable. Unless of course China is willing to die on this hill lol.. I guess that is what my acuantence is thinking will happen and that it will reach ath again lol. Told the dumbass to at least sell some when it was at 15 in august cuz lets be real.. we all knew it would go down in september or october. The dude could have bought at half the price now I think
@@tomlxyz Because it's expensive. You need battery swaps everywhere. That means you need many more batteries than you have for vehicles in a very competitive environment where batteries are the most expensive part of an EV. Plus, the more vehicles you sell, the longer the wait times. The longer the wait times, the advantage of a battery swap become a disadvantage. Also, improvements being made in EV charging and mileage can be improved. Wait times for battery swapping will not improve and may even decline. The cost required to maintain battery swapping just makes no sense. You need too many employees and the logistics involved is far too complicated.
@@tomlxyzyou need someone to uninstall/install a very heavy, complicated and critical component of the car. In the EU and USA this means you have to make sure it’s done correctly which is time consuming. Juridically it opens up a myriad of headaches also.
I always thought the "battery swabbing" made no sense and could be their down fall..so far its playing out this way. Its sad to say the least because I really liked NIO..key word:liked! We shall seee what the future holds. Hopefully they turn things around down the road. Their only hope is the help from the Chinese Government at this point.
Guys, Nio can not only swap battery and also charge like other EV and battery is upgradable from 75kwh to 100 and higher. Nio started battery swap partnership with ChangAn, Geely and soon will announce with other companies potentially Mercedes, Toyota, Hongqi. Battery swap is the future for sure.
Swapping battery sounds cool but is financially expensive. Think about it, even if the the swap stations and automation is free (which is impossible), it basically requires an extra battery for each car on the road. And when a battery cost $10k, that's a lot of very expensive and unproductive asset sitting around. Further more, unlike gasoline, car/truck/sports vehicles have to use different sized/shaped batteries. Now you need even more expensive unproductive assets sitting in those stations. That sounds like a financial nightmare.
@@xiphoid2011 agreed but not completely. Also need to consider battery swap stations as an energy storage station and charging battery with low cost at night. Lithium battery will become cheaper and cheaper. In the future different sizes of batteries will be like 87, 91, 93 type of gas for various purposes. Swap station takes less space and cheaper to build than gas stations.
I like the idea of NIO. Of course they can never be the next Tesla, that's ridiculous. They don't even make their own cars. However you don't NEED to be the next Tesla to have a fairly successful business. What they wanted to be is the Apple of the car world. Apple don't make their own phones, they just make them look pretty and put attractive looking software on it. There is nothing wrong with this business model and you can see there is a bit of a NIO fan club. They just needed to work on keeping costs down but putting in software features that people want on their drive. Keep driving that social media community. We all know Apple is over-priced and under-powered but people buy it because they think it's cool, and rationalise their decision with "but it's simple" or "it just works". Unfortunately they got distracted with this battery swap idea. The flaws are pretty obvious and it's a huge resources drain for little benefit. They latched onto it as a USP and didn't stop to wonder why nobody else really WANTS to do it. If they want to get back on track then they should be thinking software software software. They have a nice looking car. Now make it cool to own. Release a new game every month. A stream of new usability features, for example a tie-in with a restaurant web site where you can jump in your car and ask which take-away restaurants have a promotion on today within a 10km radius and browse through them before you drive and buy something. Phillip.
@@AIMOONAI Thinking battery swap is the future is deluded. Even the math doesn't make sense. And the math is pretty important if you want a business to survive. Phillip.
Nio and BYD are actually real companies with products and technology and are relatively not impacted by a real estate development side hustle in China. I don't they they will grow like Tesla but I do think they will be a sustainable EV company at least in China and 3rd world. I wish them well, especially on their battery swap business.
Until Nio understand that china is a limited market, they will fail. A limited market is where you have a large population but because they are limited by their small yearly income, they have to think harder where to park their money. For the past 40 years, they all parked 70% of their savings in real estate. All that is gone in 2024. Doesn't seem like Nio have much of a future tbh. Great video.
@@Ishootloads and they are failing. every one knows "made in china" is tofu shit. this is the funny irony of it all. china branded itself as cheap production for products.
It is especially sad as I think Nio is really forward thinking when it comes to batteries. We need batteries to be on a lease model and the rest of the car to be considered shells that are actually really cheap in comparison. You buy a nice car with all the bells and whistles for $20k and then pay a yearly battery subscription of maybe $3k. You make some of it back by electricity being cheaper than petrol and you'll never have to worry about the battery dying at the 10 year mark turning your $65k SUV into a big brick. I have a vision that in the future all cars and trucks would have swappable batteries but they'd come in cells that are light enough you can take them out by hand. You pull into a swapping station like current petrol stations and you spend 10 minutes swapping out 3 dozen battery cells that each weigh about 3kg, as much as a big jug of milk. You don't have to swap all of them if you only need half fresh for example to get you where you need to go and then plug in. Current battery technology however would probably require hundreds of cells if they could only weigh as much as people could carry without injuring their back or being so cumbersome you'd damage your car trying to replace them so totally not feasible at the moment.
We don't need or want batteries to be on a lease model. Most of us want to own our cars. Not buy a car without an engine and then have to rent the engine for the rest of our lives. You might enjoy your vision but not many other people share it. Phillip.
@@philliptemple9841But current batteries turn into expensive bricks at the 12-15 year mark. That $45000 car you bought literally becomes scrap metal as a battery replacement is often more expensive than a new EV. If the battery is on a lease model then you can choose to keep driving your car albeit paying about $3k in today's money per annum instead of buying a whole new car. Your second hand EV would still be able to find a buyer. Have you looked at second hand EV prices for vehicles around the 7 year mark? It's pretty grim as no one wants to roll the dice on a car that might find it only has half its advertised range within the next 3 years.
@@xcw4934 Where to start on that one? What evidence do you have that current batteries turn into a brick after 12 years? There are plenty of 2013 Tesla Model S driving around fine and that's 10 years. No bricks in sight. Also I remember a new battery for a Model S being $20k on an $80k car so that doesn't sound like the battery being more expensive than a new car. Add that the price of batteries are coming down drastically. Oh and there are 3rd parties that repair damaged cells, avoiding the need to replace the battery pack. Phillip.
The only advantage battery swapping has over charging is time. As battery technology improves, increasing range and decreasing charging time, the attraction of battery swapping will decline, thereby killing Nio’s strategic advantage. However Nio will be stuck with the ongoing cost of building and maintaining those stations which are likely significantly more expensive than a charging station.
No that is not true. If all cars in my country (Netherlands) were to be EV's tomorrow there would be a huge problem, because electricity providers can't keep up with demand, especially during the evening when people charge their car at home. So there's the advantage that the Swap Station also serves as a small power plant. They can charge batteries at night time when costs are low and even sell back to the grid when prices are high. It's also a luxury feature. Imagine it raining and being stormy outside and having to go out to get the cable out and charge. Not a big problem, but with Nio you don't even have to leave the car. The fact the battery is easily swappable also results in easier, quicker and cheaper repairs. Even if you wouldn't opt for the subscription. And if you opt for the subscription you will never have to worry about replacing a faulty battery and just get a new one, even when battery tech evolves. So battery swap has many advantages, it's not only about the quicker swap time.
@@Francis-of8cw battery swap also reduce the initial purchase cost, meaning more sales and also all EVs after 1 year deprecate its value 10% to 20% because of battery, but with battery as a service that won't happen....
Oh god I’m having anxiety opening this video I’ve lost a fortune investing into them when I should just have dumped it in Tesla, xpeng also screwed me big time
Nio has sold 107,924 cars from January to July 2024. In May, June, and July, they sold 20k plus cars each month. They have an investment of 3 billion dollars from UAE.
Several eu and other nations already adopted nio swapping standard. Thus can only go up from here if they charging thousands of swap stations, being a major source of revenue to fund more swap stations. This is not a ev only source of revenue but a subscription model that only keeps growing for every ev sold.
I think their main problem is that it isn't really proven that changing batteries is really the way to go and think all evidence points to the opposite.
Changing batteries is a REALLY bad idea in a battery constrained world, let alone one where the chemistry is evolving and improving all the time. Not only do they have to produce way more batteries than they need to supply swapping stations, which they could have used to make more cars, but improving battery energy density is rapidly degrading the value of that surplus of battery stock. Of course this would only work in China, if anywhere. In Europe people want to own their cars and won't just rent the battery. They definitely won't want to swap them after taking care of the one they have, without knowing the quality of the one they will receive. Phillip.
@@sbob1041 I think the key point here is who pays for the new battery. The fixed battery is owned by the car owner, and they pay for a new one. (Either directly or through paying into a warranty system.) Most of the cost of Nio's battery swap system is borne by Nio itself, and that isn't sustainable for them. To make the battery swap idea work, most of the cost of the system would have to be paid for by the EV owners. And that would mean much higher prices.
sometimes you don't have choice. If you want to go EV route, but density is shit, you have to swap. In my region delivery network can operate only because they swap batteries in e-bikes. You need at least 2 swaps to work for whole day.
At least it's a real company unlike Nikola. I hope they turn around.
It's kind of refreshing to hear a corporate implosion story that boils down to "things aren't working out" and not "massive fraud" or "unbelievably stupid ideas".
is that thing still around. last i checked they were selling merc like baseball hats instead of cars on their website ...
@@fruit4health329 Nikola has actually managed to deliver more semi trucks to customers than Tesla has.
They won’t it’ll be bankrupt soon
Real marketing company without own factory.
I think if Nio can weather the storm they'll be ok because a lot of those startup EV brands in China are already closing down since the government is started to crack down on the companies that are just making cars for the subsidies then dumping the vehicles in fields to rot. Nio is actually selling vehicles and their vehicles are actually made well so that makes China look good and they need companies like Nio for their for their image, so the CCP may not let them fail.
Maybe it is right for the Hefei municipal government but it isn't for CPC. China already has at least 10 same-level EV companies just like Nio ranging from well-established legacy automakers such as GAC, Geely, SAIC, and BYD, to start-ups such as Xpeng, Leapmotor, and Li Auto. Nio is far from too big to fall, and if Nio issues a bankruptcy government probably will sell the valuable assets of Nio to other Chinese EV companies instead of bailing them out with a high price tag.
ok so why geely just partnered with nio ? haha
Range, range, range.
If I can only have one vehicle, I want to make sure it has to range to go where and when I want, not tethered by a cable.
@@rainboworiental9521 how did nio just buy jac assest for 400 million if they are going bankrupt?
If
Hats off to the drone pilot for that slick fly through the hatch and out the window. Very easy to get wobbly in an enclosed space and thrown off by your own prop wash.
This is basically a quick summary for someone who never heard of Nio.
I never heard of them
In all fairness, NIO has recently received a production licence in China, meaning they will no longer have to use JAC's licence. Whether they can turn this around though is a completely different question given the competition and various other issues
Yes. And NIO has acquired the production facility from JAC. That's also part of the reason why their finance figures don't look good in 2023.
They are at the top of most car comparisons. Would be a tragedy to let them fail
Thank you for the video. Car manufacturers in 1903 went through the same shake out. there were 80 in 1903 and it would grow to over 300. Can you blame them? All the horses were going away. NIO, like any new company in a new industry (EV's) had to find their way. When starting up the investor pitch was beautiful high tech luxury cars and they were. This pitch worked and the market timing for the product was correct.
New companies make mistakes and, although the results aren't in yet, battery swapping may not prove out. The majority of the money invested in EV battery tech is going towards faster charging/lighter/cheaper/longer range. EV batteries are in the process of solving the problem addressed by swapping.
I think NIO has a strong enough brand and product quality to survive, but tighter money policies won't help them. I think more money was burnt with new model development than any other activity by NIO. Getting a new car ready and releasing it is fabulously expensive and NIO brought out numerous models.
Henry Ford and Musk illustrated the best way to make money is to avoid the cost of new model development. As the EV market is nascent Musk gets away with avoiding new models. It will take years to get the money back on cyber truck, but they can afford it now....sort of.
Yes the Chinese EV market will shake down as startups close or get bought out. We'll see about NIO.
You leave out one important point; battery degradation. Over 5 years the degradation of a Tesla battery renders the car useless. The superior model is battery swapping.
@@hzleyes7087 At 12.5k miles per year it would take the average American 16 years to reach 200k miles, at which point the vehicles will still have an average of 88% battery life remaining. With the high starting range of Tesla vehicles, most of them will likely still be used as commuter cars when they are 30 years old.
@@hzleyes7087Perhaps that's the superior model for the customer. But that is because the cost of battery degradation stays with the manufacturer.
This reminds me of the great e-bike gold rush from the 2010s: Way too many people in China decided that copying Lime was "the future" and so suddenly there were so many e-bikes being produced that cities had to start collecting and crushing them because every tourist destination was flooded with rental bikes (most of which wouldn't even start because the companies that made them went under already).
I hope they recycled the batteries.
@@Kevin_Streetbattery swap makes battery recycle easier.
Are you sure those were electric? We've all seen those big pictures of the fields with thousands of bikes but they just look like normal bicycles.
@skully i used to live in Beijing just before and during the pandemic.
It was both. The streets were flooded with regular bikes, ebikes, and rentable mopeds. Now a days you can see Didi branded mopeds still flooding the streets with meituan escooters. However, I've not seen rentable bikes in a while. Even when i go to the tier 1 cities (i live in a tier 3).
It's a lot less then it used to be. I remember there was an issue where they got rid of their monthly subscriptions, you could get unlimited rides for like $15 usd. After that bike shops started to sell lots of bikes. They also increased the price per km
@@backlogbuddies did you see that OP is talking about 2010? Sharing bike economy stabilized before pandemic. Before 2019 a lot of companies existed just for 1 year. Didi, meituan, alipay bikes are existing already like 4-5 years. And shared e-bikes appeared around 2019 only.
I don't think the CCP will let Nio fall, most likely they will help them establish their own EV factory. Nio is one of the few Chinese EV car makers that are making reputable cars and actually have a tangible customer base, most of the other EV makers are just there for the subsidies. Nio is solid, just a few rectifications and its good to go
U cant be serious...... Any thing from China is a scam. C'mon man....
You forgot to mention that NIO has 6 billion in cash, two partnerships (and others in the process) for battery swapping, and NIOs sub brand launching in 2024.
Hyped for the future
Let it go 😂
Sell. Take the loss while you can and collect the tax save. You can always buy NIO shares if they ever turn around.
@@chrisja1998blah blah
@@MaticTheProto Nio shares are down 30 or 25% since my comment. Is it really blah blah?
Maybe they will survive, but you should never buy a falling knife like NIO right now when the rest of the market is in a bull trend. Buy if NIO ever shows sign of a positive trend.
I watched a video today on NIO and now charge for battery swap out and they've introduce and a longer distance battery. I can't seeing this failing. The video showed an incredible infrastructure for charging and swapping. I think the battery swap in the game changer. If you consider repairing a battery in North American to be in the 20k if you get a lemon. At least in Canada we lack lack the infrastructure.
I actually really, really like this business model and i hope they turn things around. I also thought to myself 🤔"There should be a car with a swappable battery and battery availability as commonplace as an oil change." But nobody in the US has done it.
@YourFreakingDaddy it does, you charge then a convenience fee, 20$ to50$, similar to what a gas-filled up will cost or they can wait for the battery to charge, Most people because of the time, will choose swapping
@@SHOTIMELV You have alot to learn fella.
No you have a lot to learn. Battery swap is superior because you eliminate the battery degradation. What you have after 5 years of Tesla ownership is a battery that takes longer to charge with diminished battery charge.
@@hzleyes7087 Somebody has to bear the cost of battery degradation. Imagine you as a customer getting a battery swap and finding that the new battery has greatly compromised storage capacity, giving your car 50% of the expected range. So the burden has to fall on the manufacturer to keep from pissing off their customers, they have to do extensive quality control and retire bad batteries. Any new battery that you get in a swap could have been abused and is a potential firebomb waiting to turn your car into a mobile crematorium. What level of capacity loss would you as a consumer be willing to accept? 10%? Assuming you can count on 200 miles range with a new battery, what if you get a battery that is 10% down on capacity, and it leaves you stranded 20 miles out in the boonies?
The company then has great incentive to retire batteries that are almost new and has to bear the cost of recycling. And also consider they have to bear the cost of charging the batteries they are keeping in inventory, and the cost of installing the infrastructure for charging 10, 20, 30 batteries is significant. Keep in mind that the battery comprises about 1/3 the total value of an EV, so when you see a rack of 30 batteries in a swap establishment, that's the value of about 10 new cars. Getting a battery swap is not the same as getting an oil change or filling the fuel tank in a combustion car. The company has to take into account all of that liability into the purchase price of the car, or the rental fee of the swapped battery, then that cost is passed on to the consumer.
If you're going to embrace battery swapping, that means you no longer own the battery, you're renting it. Then the swap establishment would have a rental agreement that puts substantial penalties on any damage occurring to the battery while it's in your possession. If you run over road debris and dent the casing, you would have to pay for the damage to what could be a ruined battery. Then you could be paying for basically 1/3 of a new car.
@@hzleyes7087 You obviously never owned an EV or even know the basics about EV's
They certainly have intense competition these days, but bit of a stretch to say a company that just delivered record vehicles and doubled their revenue in the last quarter failed.
Have you see their expenses to deliver those crap vehicles?
@@Chris-vz2kv have you? Please do tell
. . .but they didn’t! Sales have fallen since last year & their operating deficit is growing. They’re being out competed, in the higher end EV segment, by Li Auto (nothing to do w/NIO, though CEO’s share same surname), Zeeker, Xpeng &, of course, Tesla. Here in Beijing, I see far fewer new NIOs these days than 2-3 years ago.
@@Rockiii9 NIO sales are growing, Tesla sales are falling, if NIO is failing what does that make Tesla?
@@Chris-vz2kvcrap? Their cars are better than any US car lmao
Things will be turned around in the next year by i) Very affordable cars of a new brand called "Alps" will be in the market soon; ii) Their swap stations will be a new standard in China that provides electricity services for many cars of other brands, supported by the government. Besides, the information given in this video is incorrect. They offer so-called BaaS (Battery as a Service) you can pay USD 33k (ET5T) for a car and rent the battery service at USD 128 per month for unlimited swaps. They are making a lot of money every day from the battery service. They have so far implemented 2.3k+ swap stations, which cover almost all entrances of national highways and allow users to do the swap in less than 5 minutes, i.e. truly solve the range anxiety problems of electric cars.
Interesting!
Good luck getting competitors to use their standard. Also, cars/SUV/truck/sports inherently can't use the same one size/shaped batteries. That means they have to have multiple of each sized batteries, very expensive assets just sitting around at each station. This isn't cheap gasoline that can fill any sized/shaped fuel tanks. This looks like a poorly thought out financial plan to me.
@@xiphoid2011 ES8, ES6, ET5, ET7, etc. Nio has proven that cars of different sizes can share the same-size batteries. Not sure if the 4th gen. swap stations would incorporate batteries of different sizes but guess that national standards must be well-set to accommodate the financial concern. Gasoline cost used to be at least 3 times to consumers in China and thus swap stations should be the future even if it's costly at the setup (mind you, fast chargers are also available to other electric cars without swapped batteries for more revenues, thanks to the electricity supplied by the swap stations).
@@nobigdealllllIt hasn't proved anything at all, just all similar sized cars from 1 company can use one sized battery. Logically, a big SUV cannot use the same battery as a small car, and a small car can't fit a big battery of a truck. Even simple phones of different sized can't use the same sized battery, with a larger screened ones need a bigger battery. Then there is the shape of vehicles also dictate different battery sizes, a tall tuck has a different sized battery shape than a low sports car. This is why we have AAA, AA, C, D sized battery standard in the world, and a battery swapping stations would need to have several of all of the different sizes, which is just expensive unproductive assets sitting around while losing money. Your argument is logically wrong and financially unsound.
@@xiphoid2011 Check Nio's ES 8 and ET 5, already in the market sharing batteries
I wish European carmarkers had adopted such a battery swap system, standardized between all brands. That would increase the adaption of electric cars significantly and boost the secondary market. At the moment, hardly anyone dares to buy second hand electric cars as the condition of the battery is a gamble, and swapping the battery costs as much as a used car.
that's exactly why, battery swap is not profitable
maybe the middle ground is to give cheap battery replacement so that second hand buyer don't have to gamble
Perhaps this is the reason why it never happened. The battery degradation costs go towards the battery swapping company. They would need to mark up the price in order to compensate for the degradation. And if my napkin math is correct that makes the charging price comparable per km with petrol vehicles.
It would not. If it can't make at least 800 km then the vast majority of people won't buy it. I won't spend my time every 2 hours at some charging station when I want to get to my destination ASAP. Also, Electricity is more expensive than Diesel or Benzin. Everyone I know who owns an EV owns it as a second car and still has a Bezin/Diesel car at home.
EV Project is gonna fail no matter how much our political elites are pushing for it.
@@saellenx3528 they will still exist, just not for absolutely every person, but rather just important person or ambulance
for your average joe, public transport is cheaper, both for the government and the user
@@saellenx3528 If the car could go 300 to 400k and then needing a 5 minute battery swap that would not be an issue for most people. Most drivers would like to take a break anyway. It is only the prolonged charging breaks that people dislike. Price of the fuel also depends on your country and the taxes. The daily expense of EV is lower in countries with high fuel tax.
NIO has a bright future. A strong business model and a great strategic direction NIO is going forward 🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥
I didn’t hear of this EV. Thanks bro
Tesla toyed with the idea of battery swaps, but every battery that sits in a re-charging station is one less car Tesla could sell. Nio decided they had better math.
It also means manufacturing a lot of batteries. Which increases costs.
Batteries are getting cheaper so regardless of whether NIO will survive or not, battery swapping is still the future.
@@williamstriker2299 delusional
@@williamstriker2299for battery swap to be the future, there has to be a standard on battery pack, and a standard on platform design. That isn’t happening.
@@xsu-is7vqI guess you haven’t heard NIO signed partnerships with Geely and Changan on batteries swap standards couple weeks ago?
NIO's financial situation presents significant challenges. Their debt burden, amounting to $6.55 billion, far exceeds their cash reserves of $3.1 billion. Furthermore, their gross profit margin of 13.5% falls short of covering their expenses, let alone their debt obligations. These financial strains, coupled with intense competition from Chinese automakers like BYD and XPeng, cast a shadow over NIO's future. Without addressing their financial woes and differentiating themselves from the competition, NIO faces an uphill battle.
But they could really be the next Tesla. They're just doing it faster. Tesla is going to zero too.
Thanks bot
Tesla is going to zero with cybertruck and the roadster. A massive waste of R&D, time and resources
@@justwatchinguboob Don't forget the robots that do nothing, and the new AI chatbot that will also do nothing.
@@fanban2926 Stating facts = Bot
Nio has not failed at all. The company is investing to build a solid base for the future. a Half of spendings goes for aggressively expending charging infrastructure (one of the largest in China,), a huge amount of money spent for creating own OS (SKY) , next gen superchargers, new vehicle platform (with full over-the-wire control), lidar chip, FSD chip, 150kWh hybrid ssd battery, two mass market sub-brands etc. The list can go on. It is normal when money are spent on developing leading initiative solutions (Tesla a good example of it). Never listen to any fools who are saying that this company is done, because they only can see 1-2 quarters ahead. They do not know what the are talking about.
Those are only good investments if they actually pan out. Full self-driving looks farther away today than it looked a decade ago.
They will survive and thrive!
@@TacticusPrimeYou are not following Tesla?!
@@waynerussell6401 I am following their utter failure to deliver full self driving. Just like everyone else. And the fall of their stock price by a third year-to-date.
@@TacticusPrime Tesla has the best ADAS available and an extremely capable autonomous driving system that is capable in all driving scenarios at low cost and entirely scalable. The leading application of GAI and accelerating in performance at an incredible rate.
So not following at all!
A massive buying opportunity due to the knowledge gap like your own!
Watch one of the huge number of reviews of V12...
we will see if things turn arround with the launch of the mass market brand under Nio called Alps (I think first deliveries expected in October 2024)
That's really interesting. Going by your video there was nothing wrong with the business plan of Nio when they started. But the market has grown in a way that emphasizes value rather than luxury brands, and because of the decisions they made at the beginning of the company (battery swap stations and licensing out manufacturing) they just can't compete in that space.
I wonder if some kind of reboot is possible where Nio invests in a factory of their own and builds a cheaper EV that can compete with others on the market. It would be a massive pivot and a tremendous gamble, but given the way things are going that might be better than just waiting to go bankrupt.
There are EV manufacturers in China that have own factories before nio existed. It looks as usual attempt to jump into market on high expectations meanwhile your competitors already are making work horses.
It's hard to reinvent the brand but not impossible but Nio probably think they are safe right now because of multiple bail out. It's hard to change the way of business when you think you are not in crisis
The video doesn't mention it for some reason, but they are doing exactly that. They purchased the factory from JAC recently, and will expand to lower price cars with a brand called 'Alps' or 'Firefly'.
@r09d98 Don't understand reason for these swapping stations. Modern 800 V systems just take 18 minutes charging 10 to 80 %.....without a building or personal needed. Really screw off & on your battery, to save 10 minutes?? And you have to drive to this place....somewhere in the middle of an industrial space.
They solved a problem by high costs, which is not a real problem.
What if Tesla buys Nio, implements production system and Tesla incorporates battery swap into new Tesla models? Swapping is equal to refueling at gas stations and convenient.
China has several beautiful EVs and hybrids as well. Good video.
No mention of their capital expenditures? They just purchased the factory from JAC, and continue to rapidly expand the power swap station network, that probably answers for most of the losses.
Thanks! Where is the best place to find accurate information ation on NIO?
Its a chinese company, accurate info does not exist in the public sphere.
Bagholder here. Tons of reasons, but two I’ve noticed recently is Zeekr (backed by Greely) outperforming them in their segment and the massive Capex to build the swapping stations. A painful lesson to learn.
“Soufflé under a sledgehammer” 😂
Nio is definitely a potential growth company to be on the look out for. Comparing it to its peers who strictly manufacture EV vehicles, it ranks fourth in my analysis
Nio actually sold over 160,000 cars in 2023 (up 30%) with some very interesting models and many see its products today as equal or superior quality to Tesla. they have some truly innovative solutions and products but it is true it is a crowded market. Can it continue to burn cash? well one of the UAE shareholders invested another 2.2 billion last month so that gives more time. and they are only a 7 year old company. In any case they are one of the top 5-6 bigger / most interesting EV makers in China along with BYD, Xpeng, LI, Aion, and some of the SAIC and Geely brands
Actually their quality gets compared more with German brands, they long surpassed Tesla
Thanks for the shout out
Your channel is a great resource for Nio
I just don't understand what they are thinking. Why invest so much into battery swapping technology and stations? They sell luxury premium cars so not many people will even be able to use them. Not to mention charging speeds are getting faster and faster to the point where battery swapping will be of no use. The only thing they have going for them is their good brand image of high quality cars and even then instead of using the Nio name to design and sell more affordable cars, they plan to create sub-brands for that. Please wake up William Li.
Partnerships and the new cheaper sub brand is forming. The infrastructure is there for battery swap. If you build it they (other companies) will come? We'll have to wait and see.
The U.S. just standardized. Every region has their own alternate standard. Even Tesla is different in the U.S., China, and Europe
Lmao almost everything you said is inaccurate
@YourFreakingDaddynope. You Americans are delusional
Three minutes for a swap....faster than a charge...
From the business standpoints, the company is just cash burning.,but for the consumers, it is one of the best EV in the market. Been to their showroom a few months ago, and sit in the ET7 for a while, absolutely blown away by how good it is. We own a Mercedes E which is comparable to the price of ET7, and our Mercedes E looks like a joke compare to the ET7. It is very comfortable, packed with Tech, one of the best sound systems and elegant design. I hope they could enter more western countires beacuse they are just so much better than the traditional auto makers such as BMW, Lexus and Mercedes.
. Nio is actually in pretty good business shape. It accurately reached profitability excluding research and development expenses
The travel assistance by traditional brands is much better. And you find a garage at every corner. And they keep their value and there is parts security for service. Whenever NIO might go bancruptcy what value is there anymore? Or US starts embargos/war? against China (next year?)
Amazing analysis🙌
Are these bots or do most people who comment didnt watch the vid?
Someone say bad thing about china, must discredit. Thats my bet
both
Nio investors are especially dumb
@@serioserkanalname499I just invested in nio shares, I’m real. And broke 😂🙌
They comment while they watch.
Nio is so much nicer than Tesla. I really hope they come to the us.
If I'm on a road trip, or in a rush I would love swappable batteries. A mixture of that and lots of charging stations is what we need. Even if it costs a few dollars extra it's worth it
Yeah, right, the infrastructures needed!
Wouldn't work...unless there are standardised battery sizes, to suit every makes/models.
But I doubt the myriad companies will standardise battery sizes
Structural batteries like blade battery from BYD are much better than replaceable battery. Much safer and much better car performance and handling.
@@Cap_management Replaceable battery systems can have the batteries swapped and upgraded to new, more advanced ones in the future.
@YourFreakingDaddy
Says the man with money to burn.
@@Cap_managementno
The nio cars in Denmark is too expensive for most people. Even though people have a good income here. Prices exceed 600,000 Kroners and most people want cars for about 500,000 or less. And the battery swap service is too expensive here. I would probably only use it once or twice a month. Fix the prices!
Please can you do one on Arrival. The UK based electric car company.
Thank you.
I’m buying more nio stock today ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Good job while everyone making tons of money you managed to lose tons of money.
I’m not sure if they can recover, but I hope they do. A few years ago, my uncle bought a very cheap EV when I was visiting families in Beijing. The car was so cheap I privately mocked him for buying a “toy car”. But it was surprisingly good for the price when I actually drove it. Iirc it was about 5000 USD including tax and fees. China’s EV market is insanely competitive. Lots of decent EV companies are now being absorbed by larger and even more competitive ones.
I saw the dealership in a shopping mall in Yantai, China. But not seeing Nio Cars on Road
Says it all really.
Says nothing really.
I still believe Nio has great potential, especially with the battery swap. If this tech comes to the US, I think it would shake up the EV and ICE car market.
Thinking about buying more nio
You guys a f*cked dude
Put options?
great video as always! great job
They do build good cars, i think if they switch back to battery charge isn't gonna be too big of a deal. Lol
Also 80% of the Chinese area driving EV in China. My friend just went back last month. He told me not many people driving Japanese cars anymore.
Only Chinese brands and European brands.
this makes sense, people buy japanese cars for affordable and reliable. chinese cars will definitely be more affordable in the home market, and if something breaks down the factory repair is probably right around the corner lol. euro cars still dominate the luxury market and is a status symbol so they're going to stay a very long time
You can choose to own the battery and charge it yourself. 90% of Nio customers prefer battery swapping, which destroys the arguments against it.
The tesla of china is actually BYD
I respect nios decision to allow for battery swapping and wish it could take off here in North America.
Tesla once touted it as a fantastic way to crush the range anxiety fears, but scrubbed it once they realized it would keep people from replacing their teslas on a faster schedule.
For a company that advertises itself as being environmentally friendly, you’d think that having people buy less cars would be something to encourage - but no one’s really that naive are they
Drew Baglino, Tesla’s VP of Powertrain and Energy, has addressed why Tesla dropped battery swap. Tesla didn’t drop battery swap for the reason you stated. They did so because it makes no financial sense vs charging. There’s a whole host of issues with battery swap, but one of the biggest issues is that it negatively impacts model differentiation. If Tesla kept battery swap, then all Tesla models would have to use the same batteries, which is a horrible idea.
Imagine having a 58 kWh Model 3 LFP battery in a Model S or Cybertruck. The Cybertruck would be a very uncompetitive truck vs having the high nickel 123 kWh 4680 battery pack that it has now. NIO basically screwed itself in that they aren’t able to differentiate their models as much as BYD, Tesla, Li Auto, Zeekr etc.
All of NIO’s cars have to use the same batteries for their battery swap system to be financially viable, but then their cars will be less competitive due to not right-sizing battery packs for different designs/form factors.
I know its like Elon lied about caring about the environment or something.
Every tesla looks exactly the same and probably uses nearly the same powertrain anyway.@@waynelewis9110
The 2023 run rate you presented is complete BS. They haven't posted their Q3 and Q4 reports which is why the revenue in the chart is only around $5B. They are set to have around $8B in revenue with about 160K deliveries in 2023.
Hold those bags, Simon
EV Battery swapping idea is the most brilliant idea in the century & for the future as well
It only works if NIO can get others onboard. Otherwise, it is a huge financial burden for a company delivering only 100k cars a year.
@@MyMovie5858I went to India in 2021, they had electric tuk tuks who were already doing the battery swapping.
Conveniently leaves out them building their own factory or that they "lose money" on each car because they invest so much and are innovating with every new platform and anything that goes against the narrative of bankruptcy. Like it or not they ain't going nowhere.
It's a weird use of language to say they "lose money" with each car sold, because they have an 8% profit margin in each vehicle sold...
I can tell you're a bag holder 😂
Battery swap is the future Nio Is ahead of everyone remember ,batteries are catching fire and the Chinese government are going to do regular inspections on batteries because of the fires that are going with EV’s. with battery swap, the inspection will pass with ease because as we all know, the batteries are being recharged and inspected in the battery swap station that’s why they are two car companies that sign with Nio to do swaps on their brand of cars. Of course they will be a fee for the battery swap that will go directly to Nio Which would be preferable . And there’s three other car companies that want to join Nio and take advantage of this advanced technology, it’s the smart thing to do because once the Chinese government starts to regulate expecting batteries Nio will be way ahead everybody else.
You got the point bro
the nio would succeed if huge import tariffs would be cut... most countries are afraid of Nio. their cars are too good!
the good news is that Neo sales in China are going up..!
The difference between nio and tesla is that Tesla has received more than $3.2 billion worth of direct and indirect California subsidies and market mechanisms since 2009
Not to mention billions of dollars in carbon credit payments from other manufacturers.
Not to mention over 20 billion more in profit simply from selling a superior vehicle. Any other maker could have gained those credits, instead they pay their competitor millions. Not a very smart move by legacy OEMs
Also they were the first company. If they started now they‘d 100% fail
@@thomasreese2816lmao it took them forever to make a profit. And their vehicles are shit. They just happen to be cheap
The reason why they start high and go lower is not only because of mass production scaling but also because the perceived luxury branding. At a higher cost people believe that Tesla is fancy but now anyone can afford one.
Great work as always. Thanks.
Do you think buying puts on EVs is good idea and which companies you think are gonna be bankrupt soon? I have a small amount and think to go for lucid?
Bankrupt in 2024:
Nikola Motor
Mullen Automotive
Bankrupt in 2025:
Lucid Motor...
Excellent inf.NIO LL DOMINATE MARKET.WE NEED TIME.🚗$$$$$$$😇👍
11:53 They should start in Germany , place where plenty of people drives real fast . Northest stations should be near Oslo and Stokholm and southest on Florence, Rijeka, Marselie, Lyon
They already are in Germany…
I never could have imagined that the HFCCA would be a catalyst in taking down the Chinese markets. I invested in NIO and KNDI. I'm just thankful I didn't invest more.
That money was wasted: I could have bought more shares of Tesla, Nvidia, AMD or Micron
Tesla? Sure if you’re a clown
I bought at $6 and kept adding whenever I got my paycheck. Then I sold at $50 because it stopped going up. So happy I had cashed out, but hope NIO can make a comeback
Well done.
U did well! $NIO is $6 again!
Nio es una empresa protegida por el gobierno Chino y cada vez venderán mucho mas. Recuerdo que son vehículos de lujo y no vehículos corrientes. El próximo año venderán coches báratros mas otros productos. Siempre dicen que en China esta en crisis económica, ¿pero quien compra la deuda Americana?¿¿? los Chinos... NIO en 2024 crecerá y me pasare desanduvo por este canal. Nunca vi una empresa tan atacada como esta. En fin El tiempo nos dirá quien tiene razón. Saludos
You are just a fool. As long as Chinese companies, no matter which one, do well, you will say they are controlled by the Chinese government. This is what Westerners call spreading rumors and smearing fear that Chinese enterprises will surpass you in terms of development. Having strength should lead to fair competition, rather than tarnishing business and politics, which is completely different.🤮
China is selling, not buying US government debt instruments.
Kevin Lau of Daiwa Securities Group also lifted NIO’s price target to $10.
I think the idea of battery swap is, especially if the batteries are swappable between all models. Good luck I own a piece.
honest opinion .
Typical misconception. NIO doesn't lose money on sale of the car, it wouldn't make sense. Typical manipulation/stupidity. NIO mostly lose money on R&D, the cars make profit but not yet enough to cover all expenses.
they should expand into the USA market
It will be a pity if the company can't improve their shortcomings. I super love this brand and mostly this ET5 model I think is way better than a lot of EV cars brands in China.
No one could imagine how competitive the EV market would become in the PRC. Their best choice is to sell a majority stake to a megacap that wants to increase their profile: money is tight.
Their cars are reliable and more safety than other brands . They have build infrastructure and have the most super charge and swap stations.
Just to set some facts right:
In Q3 2023, NIO lost around 11.000$ per car instead of the mentionned 35.000$.
NIO will aquire the 2 factories with all the equipment of JAC for around $440 million.
NIO has the most developed swapping AND charging infrastructure in China!
Well structured video and nice to watch. Only thing there is to mention that the informations in this video are very superficial.
Sounds like a overvalued company
@YourFreakingDaddy If you mean my comment, it is just facts ;) If you don't believe me just look it up.
Nio will be massive! Sales April 24 up 134% YOY, Strategic battery swapping partnerships confirmed with Changan automobile, Geely group, JAC group and Chery, also looking like with the largest car company in the world BYD!!!
Launch of ONVO sub brand into family mass market this month and direct competitor to Tesla model 3!
Now over 2500 battery swap stations in China and started european roll out, massive investment from the Saudi Arabia and huge cash reserves.
The penny hasn’t yet dropped for many investors, this is the Only car company building long term continual annual recurring revenue through its BAAS technology and subscription services as well as its development of a large scale standardised power network. Don’t believe the doom mongers , things are just getting started!!
Battery swapping was the future.
Nio will not fail and battery swaps are a top business model - they will guarantee grid stability in the future
The funny thing: over the summer I bought a put for like 2 weeks. It was a 6$ out and it just went IOM this week, had it not expired. Lol now my brokerage knows I know what I am talking about but I was still right Summer '23
The idea of battery swapping is very bad. You can't scale it. They are making decent cars but it is unlikely they will survive.
Why can't you scale it?
People can trade worthless used 30k batteries for a newer one that works. Why wouldn't thos work???? /s...
no, the idea is great. Its even enviromentally friendly in theory. Especially if you can recharge the batteries. But reality makes this very expensive. Which makes the whole thing not sustainable. Unless of course China is willing to die on this hill lol.. I guess that is what my acuantence is thinking will happen and that it will reach ath again lol. Told the dumbass to at least sell some when it was at 15 in august cuz lets be real.. we all knew it would go down in september or october. The dude could have bought at half the price now I think
@@tomlxyz Because it's expensive. You need battery swaps everywhere. That means you need many more batteries than you have for vehicles in a very competitive environment where batteries are the most expensive part of an EV. Plus, the more vehicles you sell, the longer the wait times. The longer the wait times, the advantage of a battery swap become a disadvantage. Also, improvements being made in EV charging and mileage can be improved. Wait times for battery swapping will not improve and may even decline. The cost required to maintain battery swapping just makes no sense. You need too many employees and the logistics involved is far too complicated.
@@tomlxyzyou need someone to uninstall/install a very heavy, complicated and critical component of the car. In the EU and USA this means you have to make sure it’s done correctly which is time consuming. Juridically it opens up a myriad of headaches also.
I always thought the "battery swabbing" made no sense and could be their down fall..so far its playing out this way. Its sad to say the least because I really liked NIO..key word:liked! We shall seee what the future holds. Hopefully they turn things around down the road. Their only hope is the help from the Chinese Government at this point.
But the CEO's never seem to lose money..
that’s not how it works
Welcome to capitalism. Ceos are also almost never held accountable
Failed? Jumping the gun ain’t ya?! Watch this space - Nio to the moon!
so is it bade buy shares now at 5 usd
Guys, Nio can not only swap battery and also charge like other EV and battery is upgradable from 75kwh to 100 and higher. Nio started battery swap partnership with ChangAn, Geely and soon will announce with other companies potentially Mercedes, Toyota, Hongqi. Battery swap is the future for sure.
Swapping battery sounds cool but is financially expensive. Think about it, even if the the swap stations and automation is free (which is impossible), it basically requires an extra battery for each car on the road. And when a battery cost $10k, that's a lot of very expensive and unproductive asset sitting around. Further more, unlike gasoline, car/truck/sports vehicles have to use different sized/shaped batteries. Now you need even more expensive unproductive assets sitting in those stations. That sounds like a financial nightmare.
@@xiphoid2011 agreed but not completely. Also need to consider battery swap stations as an energy storage station and charging battery with low cost at night. Lithium battery will become cheaper and cheaper. In the future different sizes of batteries will be like 87, 91, 93 type of gas for various purposes. Swap station takes less space and cheaper to build than gas stations.
I doubt Mercedes will adopt them. They are doing their own thing
Man, I've been waiting a long time for the Blue Sky....since $30+ something?! 😨🤢😵
This video is going semi viral omg. Nio 4 zewin 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
If Nio also make solar EV& hydrogen car, then they can gain more customers, as solar & hydrogen are the safest green energy!
You’ve gotta start somewhere. They’ll make it
I feel like the people who complain about EV battery replacement fees, are the same people who say battery swapping makes no sense... 😂
I like the idea of NIO. Of course they can never be the next Tesla, that's ridiculous. They don't even make their own cars. However you don't NEED to be the next Tesla to have a fairly successful business. What they wanted to be is the Apple of the car world. Apple don't make their own phones, they just make them look pretty and put attractive looking software on it.
There is nothing wrong with this business model and you can see there is a bit of a NIO fan club. They just needed to work on keeping costs down but putting in software features that people want on their drive. Keep driving that social media community. We all know Apple is over-priced and under-powered but people buy it because they think it's cool, and rationalise their decision with "but it's simple" or "it just works".
Unfortunately they got distracted with this battery swap idea. The flaws are pretty obvious and it's a huge resources drain for little benefit. They latched onto it as a USP and didn't stop to wonder why nobody else really WANTS to do it.
If they want to get back on track then they should be thinking software software software. They have a nice looking car. Now make it cool to own. Release a new game every month. A stream of new usability features, for example a tie-in with a restaurant web site where you can jump in your car and ask which take-away restaurants have a promotion on today within a 10km radius and browse through them before you drive and buy something.
Phillip.
Battery swap is the future and Nio isn’t the only player and more partners are joining the club now.
@@AIMOONAI Thinking battery swap is the future is deluded. Even the math doesn't make sense. And the math is pretty important if you want a business to survive.
Phillip.
This is not aging well...
NIO price when this video was posted - $7.32
NIO price now - $4.64
This is aging like fine wine.
Nio and BYD are actually real companies with products and technology and are relatively not impacted by a real estate development side hustle in China. I don't they they will grow like Tesla but I do think they will be a sustainable EV company at least in China and 3rd world. I wish them well, especially on their battery swap business.
Until Nio understand that china is a limited market, they will fail. A limited market is where you have a large population but because they are limited by their small yearly income, they have to think harder where to park their money. For the past 40 years, they all parked 70% of their savings in real estate. All that is gone in 2024. Doesn't seem like Nio have much of a future tbh. Great video.
You know they've been expanding outside of China right?
@@Ishootloads and they are failing. every one knows "made in china" is tofu shit. this is the funny irony of it all. china branded itself as cheap production for products.
It is especially sad as I think Nio is really forward thinking when it comes to batteries. We need batteries to be on a lease model and the rest of the car to be considered shells that are actually really cheap in comparison. You buy a nice car with all the bells and whistles for $20k and then pay a yearly battery subscription of maybe $3k. You make some of it back by electricity being cheaper than petrol and you'll never have to worry about the battery dying at the 10 year mark turning your $65k SUV into a big brick.
I have a vision that in the future all cars and trucks would have swappable batteries but they'd come in cells that are light enough you can take them out by hand. You pull into a swapping station like current petrol stations and you spend 10 minutes swapping out 3 dozen battery cells that each weigh about 3kg, as much as a big jug of milk. You don't have to swap all of them if you only need half fresh for example to get you where you need to go and then plug in. Current battery technology however would probably require hundreds of cells if they could only weigh as much as people could carry without injuring their back or being so cumbersome you'd damage your car trying to replace them so totally not feasible at the moment.
Renault already did it and it was very unpopular, especially in second hand market where people are used to open the car, not renting it.
We don't need or want batteries to be on a lease model. Most of us want to own our cars. Not buy a car without an engine and then have to rent the engine for the rest of our lives. You might enjoy your vision but not many other people share it.
Phillip.
@@philliptemple9841But current batteries turn into expensive bricks at the 12-15 year mark. That $45000 car you bought literally becomes scrap metal as a battery replacement is often more expensive than a new EV. If the battery is on a lease model then you can choose to keep driving your car albeit paying about $3k in today's money per annum instead of buying a whole new car. Your second hand EV would still be able to find a buyer. Have you looked at second hand EV prices for vehicles around the 7 year mark? It's pretty grim as no one wants to roll the dice on a car that might find it only has half its advertised range within the next 3 years.
@@xcw4934 Where to start on that one? What evidence do you have that current batteries turn into a brick after 12 years? There are plenty of 2013 Tesla Model S driving around fine and that's 10 years. No bricks in sight. Also I remember a new battery for a Model S being $20k on an $80k car so that doesn't sound like the battery being more expensive than a new car. Add that the price of batteries are coming down drastically. Oh and there are 3rd parties that repair damaged cells, avoiding the need to replace the battery pack.
Phillip.
The only advantage battery swapping has over charging is time. As battery technology improves, increasing range and decreasing charging time, the attraction of battery swapping will decline, thereby killing Nio’s strategic advantage. However Nio will be stuck with the ongoing cost of building and maintaining those stations which are likely significantly more expensive than a charging station.
No that is not true. If all cars in my country (Netherlands) were to be EV's tomorrow there would be a huge problem, because electricity providers can't keep up with demand, especially during the evening when people charge their car at home.
So there's the advantage that the Swap Station also serves as a small power plant. They can charge batteries at night time when costs are low and even sell back to the grid when prices are high.
It's also a luxury feature. Imagine it raining and being stormy outside and having to go out to get the cable out and charge. Not a big problem, but with Nio you don't even have to leave the car.
The fact the battery is easily swappable also results in easier, quicker and cheaper repairs. Even if you wouldn't opt for the subscription. And if you opt for the subscription you will never have to worry about replacing a faulty battery and just get a new one, even when battery tech evolves.
So battery swap has many advantages, it's not only about the quicker swap time.
@@Francis-of8cw battery swap also reduce the initial purchase cost, meaning more sales and also all EVs after 1 year deprecate its value 10% to 20% because of battery, but with battery as a service that won't happen....
Nio to ze möööööön 🎉
Can you make a video on Lucid?
Lucid bankrupt 2025.....😢
Oh god I’m having anxiety opening this video I’ve lost a fortune investing into them when I should just have dumped it in Tesla, xpeng also screwed me big time
I fell into the chinese ev hype as well, word of advice sell all chinese companies while you can.
@@catdogmouse555 what about PingDuoduo
Nio has sold 107,924 cars from January to July 2024. In May, June, and July, they sold 20k plus cars each month.
They have an investment of 3 billion dollars from UAE.
Several eu and other nations already adopted nio swapping standard. Thus can only go up from here if they charging thousands of swap stations, being a major source of revenue to fund more swap stations. This is not a ev only source of revenue but a subscription model that only keeps growing for every ev sold.
Surprised to see there are still many other NIO bull channel out there pumping out daily video.
Because they know Nio’s battery swap is leading the EV industry and is the future.
We'll make it up in volume.
The EV market in general is tough, but more and more EV companies come on to the market. I think only TSLA is turning a profit.
Tesla is losing ground
I think their main problem is that it isn't really proven that changing batteries is really the way to go and think all evidence points to the opposite.
Yes. Far better to keep building cars with a fixed battery that degrades and costs a fortune to replace if it fails.
Changing batteries is a REALLY bad idea in a battery constrained world, let alone one where the chemistry is evolving and improving all the time. Not only do they have to produce way more batteries than they need to supply swapping stations, which they could have used to make more cars, but improving battery energy density is rapidly degrading the value of that surplus of battery stock.
Of course this would only work in China, if anywhere. In Europe people want to own their cars and won't just rent the battery. They definitely won't want to swap them after taking care of the one they have, without knowing the quality of the one they will receive.
Phillip.
@@sbob1041 I think the key point here is who pays for the new battery. The fixed battery is owned by the car owner, and they pay for a new one. (Either directly or through paying into a warranty system.) Most of the cost of Nio's battery swap system is borne by Nio itself, and that isn't sustainable for them.
To make the battery swap idea work, most of the cost of the system would have to be paid for by the EV owners. And that would mean much higher prices.
sometimes you don't have choice. If you want to go EV route, but density is shit, you have to swap. In my region delivery network can operate only because they swap batteries in e-bikes. You need at least 2 swaps to work for whole day.
e-bike batteries are a lot cheaper than EV ones, though. That probably makes the swap system more financially sustainable.
A souffle under a sledgehammer... nice.