Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I think homebuyers are really frustrated. Even if the Fed cuts rates, it might not be enough to turn things around for housing prices, given how high they've gone over the past few years. But, I think it’s important to look at both sides of the argument
Well, I agree that housing prices are still out of reach for many people. Even with the prospect of lower interest rates, it's not guaranteed to suddenly make homes affordable. The supply issues and how much housing prices surged over the past few years are bigger factors
But I wonder how all of this could affect first-time homebuyers specifically. They’re the ones usually hit hardest by rising interest rates, but with a cut, do you think more will jump into the market?
And let’s not forget that the cost of living is still high, and people’s savings took a hit during inflation. I think this is where financial advisors could really come in handy for buyers who want to make smart decisions.
I totally agree. A financial advisor can help homebuyers plan around these uncertainties. For instance, they can help people understand how much home they can truly afford, even with changing interest rates. It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of a "crash" and think, “Maybe I should wait,” but an advisor can look at the bigger picture of someone’s financial health and guide them on timing their purchase
It’s not just the monthly payment, because the total sales price also affects the downpayment. Lower sales price, even at a higher interest rate, would have a lower barrier to entry.
Exactly! It’s not the rate it’s the price!! What do most people not get about that? And it’s not only price it’s the ongoing overhead 2:08 2:09 - insurance, utilities, HOA, maintenance, …….
Stick together would be buyers. Dont take the bait of small interest rate decreases. Houses are extremely over priced. This is the tipping point where they hope we bite. Wait this out, houses will come down and be smart when you buy. WE control the market.
Absolutely. I have cash but I am not going to spend every dime I possess to buy a garbage built crap shack and be in debt for the rest of my life. No. I'm not broke. I have cash. It took me 61 years to accumulate this level of cash and I'm not going to buy a depreciating asset and have nothing left over for maintenance when I'm old. I was looking at way overpriced property and it would cost me, easily, $100k to develop the property with electricity / septic / and a well (digging well plus well casing plus well pump). That's insane. And of course nothing for private property owners from the Rural Electrifciation bureaucrats. It's sickening, quite frankly. I'm sick to death of the MSM financial media. It's full of cheerleaders. I can't take those people seriously. I remember 2007 and they didn't say jack to warn people. Those people are still on CNBC and I refuse to watch that channel because those people make me want to projectile vomit.
@@faithsrvtrip8768 Florida has no regulation so they use trash to build your homes. And then insurance can charge an Enormous amount because they’re unregulated too. Desanctimonious 😂
@@faithsrvtrip8768 all prices falling in Florida, everyone’s leaving because everything is so poorly built and too high insurance. Thanks Desanctimonious!
The sad part is the top end of the market is coming down a little.. so if you have 2M to buy a house you can get a better deal today vs 2 years ago…. But the lower end homes for first time buyers are still sky high.
@@jonathantaylor6926 The opposite is true. Prices of houses for high income people are still going up while prices for middle and low income people are not going up and are coming down a little. Then again million dollar houses are considered low income houses in Los Angeles. In states with more reasonably priced houses prices are down in the $300,000 - $700,000 range. Biden / Harris economic policies , excessive government spending, have increased asset prices and the rich have more assets. Middle class people have fewer assets and have lots of their money in cash and purchasing power of dollars has gone down
I looked at a condo in January of 2019 it sold for 109k then re-sold in mid 2020 for 167k then sold again in 2021 for 230k now their asking 275k prices have gone parabolic. It’s total insanity! The current seller will be one to get screwed.
I will say no. About 12% of the US households are well off and will buy. Also, there is a large number of wealthy foreigners that will buy along with institutional buyers. I don't see a crash in housing or the financial markets. The current system is bad but is entrenched for decades.
Low interest rates didn't cause this... Removal of GOLD standard and nonstop priinting of funny moeny plus big corporations inflating prices have caused this...
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing now with high inflation is the result of Low interest rates. People that like Low interest Rates don't Realize that you will be Paying more for what ever you Buy.
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing right now is the result of low interest rates. Low interest rates causes inflation. If you want low interest rates you will Pay more for whatever you buy. House's need to Drop significantly before anything meaningful happens.
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing now is Because of interest rates being to Low for to Long. That's what has caused inflation. That's the result of Houses being to high and over inflated. High interest rates controls inflation. We went off of the Gold Standard in Stages with the final Stage in 1973 That's a whole different Topic.
I went to a trade school from 1993 to 1995 before going on to university. I worked on remodels, gut jobs, and took fine furniture making (at night). I know houses today are thrown together. Our teachers were honest tradesman. The old Union Trade School in Seattle it's now run by Seattle Central Community College. They teach carpenty, fine furniture, wooden boat building and how to do fiberglass. Loved that place. Great teachers, top notch experience, as well, working on real gut jobs / remodels over in West Seattle, Alki Beach. I also worked on a straw bale post-and-beam with concrete stucco house build, as a volunteer, on Orcas Island in 1997. I bet that place is worth $1 mil now.
In my area it would take a 25% drop in prices to reach 2020 levels adjusted for inflation, such that real home values are the same as they were. It is so outrageously unaffordable and it doesn't seem like your average person is doing all that well, so logic says prices should drop. When I hear people say, "Oh when the rates go down, the prices will skyrocket again", it makes my blood boil.
Home appreciation is a myth. Homes are depreciating assets that requite constant maintaining. The only reason prices go higher is because the dollar's purchasing power declined (and massive investor speculation).
I'm one of the people wanting to buy, but I will not buy with the inflated prices. With the impending downturn, I won't even look until prices drop back to 2020 levels. Interest rates have zero bearing on my decision. Unless rates drop below 3%, which will never happen, I will not entertain debt for a home.
The Housing Bubble is going to burst 💥 The time has come. It’s as simple as that; it has been long overdue. They can’t kick the can down road anymore; it’s met the dead end.
Thoughtful Money YT channel had on an excellent guest today. He is predicting stock market bubble will crash in 12 to 18 months. Buckle up. I'm good. I'll keep living the way I always live. Like I'm dirt poor and broke. I'm not but that's the way I live. It's my super power, saving money and living poor! Chin up! Every day you wake up above dirt is a great day!
In Florida, unfortunately, with the substantial special assessments, crazy hoa, and insurance increases, a 1 percent mortgage interest rate wouldn't help that condo market. What a disaster.
I have my home on the market and also looking to buy. The problem is everything in my home has been updated and remodeled and everything I see on the market in my range has not been updated . I have been in residential construction all my life, I know a good solid home. Unfortunately, everything in my price range for buying is ridiculously overpriced. Homes going for 150k to 370k need new roofs, they have outdated electrical and plumbing, if the walls aren’t lath and plaster the sheet rock is in poor condition and needs to be replaced. All these older homes have very poor insulation value. Regardless of the energy increases if you need to budget you need a well insulated home. I would love to come down on the price of my home but the whole housing market will have to lower the prices so I can sell and buy.
Yes, we are in the same situation! Our house is beautiful, excellent condition, and to replace our house with same sq footage and excellent condition is near impossible. Sellers want an arm and a leg for their older homes, but they will not update them. Who can afford to pay an extra $40 to $50K to update after overspending on a house?
A 2000sqft home that was built in the 70s in early 2000s that needed a total flip costed 300k that same home today costs 600k. This is the biggest argument in the market what makes the value so high with no updates in the home. I’m calling FRAUD from the gov
The most rapid move is sellers who has been locked for four yrears. This will increase significant inventories. The current price still not realistic for 1st time buyers.
There is no reason to have a buyer's agent. If people sre still using them it's because they dont know better. Buyer's agents get a percentage of the sale price so buyers pay more. Seller's agents can show you a house. Lawyers can handle most aspects of the sale at a far lower price than a buyer's agent..
Totally agree! And now with these new buyer's agreements asking buyers to pay partial or all of commission to buy, on top of sneaky legal language which also is making buyers liable to pay their agent commission even if the house fails to close, for any reason, there is NO way we would ever use a buyer's agent. We are tired of the corruption and thievery.
Nope. No way. Checked Zillow and saw a 1910-built house with 2B/2B in a not so good neighborhood selling for $499K. Sold in 2016 for $109K. Edit: Sacramento county
Whichever side is in question, buyers or sellers, people will lose money. And as if that inflation ramping, interest rates, and increased taxes weren't enough already, they now say "unrealized gains is what we are after". No value was created in the last 7-8 years, no opportunity, no potential. Everything is about the redistribution of wealth at best.
Lance is brilliant! What a strategic mindset. Thanks for sharing your thoughts in this video, very informative and I hope it helps people be more literate in the coming times. Cheers
I live in Central Jersey...We never seem to talk about Jersey ..Wonder why? I just witnessed a Bidding war on a house...House's in my area are not dropping and they sell fast..Come on Todd lets talk about New Jersey....
House prices are vastly overinflated. An older home, should never fetch anything close to newer homes, until they're are vastly updated, and remodeled. Only when an older model home, can match a newer home in every way, than you can ask new house prices. People are not only overpaying for the house, but also the location.
Whenever people talk about mortgage rates they always mention lowest prime rate in reality 99% of the population doesn’t qualify for that prime/buy rate from mortgage lenders so most people get +2-5 on top of that prime/low rate so actual mortgage rate is 8-12% right now
Where did those people come from? I don’t believe Americans are buying as much as people from overseas are buying. People don’t just appear. How many died with the pandemic? It just makes no sense to say we have so many people and so few homes.
@@andremorse9282 Exactly. It’s not the regular Joe buying. All they want to sell to the regular Joe is a trailer home. The regular people are not looking for homes because they cannot afford it. The money from Wall Street and from people from Middle East and China are the ones buying. It’s ridiculous to pretend that we are short of homes because Americans are buying.
One great point I’ve seen made was that new home builds have had big buy downs for the last two years… so these rate cuts are going to have little impact on moving houses. Mortgage rates aren’t dropping anyway since the FED cuts have been fully priced in.
I worry about TN and the Carolinas; that's where the people will target from up north to retire or just pick up and move since Florida is getting impossible to deal with.
One of the problem with the median sales price is, most data mixes, Condos, SFH, Townhomes, multi-units (2-4), which totally screws the stats. My country, median sales price, $650. However, median, SFH prices, $860k. The play games with the stats!
In AU, the prices continue to increase, our PM is ignoring the negative gearing , money laundering policies that benefit investors and crooks, we have 2.4 million migrants on temporary visas, the migration stats are botched on Chinese migrants, stating it's mostly from the UK and NZ, everyone here is now mostly from China and India. We have 1 bedroom apartments selling for 700,000 + with no car space and renting for $2600 + a month. We've had 700,000 new migrants pour in over the last two years. All the new builds are defective with litigation between owners and builders. Billions in profits to the banks is beyond comprehension, the civil courts are full of neoliberals and corruption is ubiquitous.
I'm in the mid-west and the housing prices here are still going up. I'm not seeing a crash, I'm not seeing major layoffs and I'm not seeing a whole lot of for sale signs in peoples yards. Many of my neighbors, as well as myself, have talked often about how we would rent our homes before we would consider selling them because of the low rates and low payments most of us have. Rates got too low for too long and now many would be sellers won't even consider it. Even if I lost my job tomorrow, God forbid, I would just put a renter in my house and go live with a relative. You'll have to pry my 2.6 rate of my dead hand because I'm not giving it up voluntarily. I feel sorry for anyone waiting for a crash in order to purchase because I don't see one happening anytime soon outside of maybe Florida and Houston.
There might be a short term correction but with the recently announced rate cuts won't be any crashes in the next few years, agreed on that point. However , what I think is possible if job losses affect both you , me and your potential life saving renter due to AI, humanoids , etc in the next decade or two then you might have to put a mattress in your living room and have say 5 Venezuelan immigrants living there collecting UBI checks to cover all your expenses and mortgage . I rented out my second investment place twice. Always headaches and once had to evict.
@drivingforcebehindu The rate cut and additional impending cuts will have little to zero impact on buyers. I'm one of the potential buyers and I'm firm on my stance. Rates are a snapshot, (purchase) prices are forever. Only the foolish will bite on rate cuts.
Some people just don't know the higher prices that sold, are actually the bait to charge extra extra more to all owners 😂😂😂😂😂. Just wait til you pay more on property taxes, insurance, maintenance, permits😅
Let's be real here. The reason why the market and this country is the way that it is is because you think nothing will ever trickle down to you. You are not special, you are not unique, you are a branch in a moving river. Eventually the river will move you wherever it wants and you will zero control over it. Unless you have enough money to build a tower away from everyone and defend it, you will feel the effects as well.
What do you mean by low rate, when you pay twice the price of the home with these so called rates? When will we calling it as what it truly is: a scam, a misleading information, a ripp off. A $300K home at 5% rate is NOT 5% interest of $300K. This interest will cost you twice the initial price after 30 years of payment. It is a 200% interest rate, period. We all know that, but when I hear interest rate are too low, it is quite irritating.
CT market is like Maryland and as an agent, my buyers are always saying that this is overkill to buy. All price tier is affected and my clients are so upset and worried that the sellers and their agents are being greedy. Most of the price points need a lot of updating and major renovations. A shame that we need to also stand with our buyers about our commissions. This industry is in trouble. Thanks for sharing and I will check out RESI
Great show. I’d be interested to learn more about how the short term rental market continues to affect these home prices. We’re trying to buy in northern Wisconsin and prices are still way too high and we lose to investors.
The problem with inventory is that there are so many “sellers” that don’t want to eat the price declines and delist. So it’s a good measure if you CAN get a deal but not the transaction prices
Incomes will have to rise, the fed would have to bring minimum wage to at least $20/hr if they want to collect more taxes on already inflated properties. The dollar has lost value at a steady pace for the last 100 years.
Excellent interview. With many large companies now requiring employees to return to office full time, will there be some softening of prices in the exurb/rural areas they moved to in 2020-21?
If a house is livable, it doesn't matter to everyone in the market.Some people don't care about new kitchens. It's a place to live and raise your family in some cases. That was put into the minds of shoppers so that they can consume more. A functional property works just fine.
The ones who sold my father a HARP deal listed the home on zillow for nearly twice the amount after signing onto HARP...what does that say! Meanwhile our local realtors tried to undervalue the home. He self listed too with no authority to do so. And they are supposed to represent freddie mac?
What jacked up prices in Florida were investors, the feds, realtors, FOMO buyers, and migration larger than usual. As far as appraisers go, the majority of jobs come through a management company. The client cannot speak directly to the appraiser and has to use the management company. The appraiser has to speak to the management company as well and not directly to the lender. At the end of the day, if some guy from up north came down and waived inspections along with paying way over asking price that house has now become a comparable unfortunately.
The Fed's manipulations are often somewhat late, especially when coming out of some kind of crisis. Lance is right to focus on "the cards we're dealt." We definitely had rates too low for too long, and the Fed at least raised aggressively when it realized its error, and now has started to cut........The central factors for the housing market, as I see it, are not just rates and payments, but the rise in carrying costs, taxes/insurance/repairs and unexpected necessary upgrade costs/replacement costs/lawn maintenance/arborist costs and, for condos, the rise in HOA fees and dizzying special assessments. All these things seem to point to inevitable home price declines.
I think they are wrong. The facts are these: nobody who bought, and are sitting on a 2-3% mortgage will sell, neither will they default. New construction homes are expensive, because inflation has driven up cost of building hugely. It's not, as many "experts" claim, a matter of supply and demand, it's a matter of replacement/ new construction cost, and this is not going to change anytime soon.
I’m still seeing people making offers at 15-25% above appraised value. The banks are turning them down and the houses are coming back to market. But they are still offering stupid money.
@Sachs Realty Todd please, you need to have Professor Hanke on the show. He just had an interview on kitco news and he said housing prices are not only not going down but up. That would be a interesting interview, thank you!!
People in San franscisco were saying the same thing in 80s. Homes went up from $20K to $200 k in 80s. Every real estate guru said it will crash . Never happened . It has been keep going up for next 40 years
Banks love high prices and high interest rates, the consumer looses, you will never own it, your essentially renting at some point and the chances of you over paying in this economy is a definite risk unless your in for the long haul, and making triple payments!
I think our market reflects Canadas In 2010. They never had a crash and have seen the price of homes double to triple in price. We have added 40 million people to the country since 2008. We will likely add another 60 million in the coming 15 years
From my POV, there's a possibility that rates were dropped because it would increase the demand for homes. Demand for homes caused over bidding. People who bought homes at low interest rates but high list prices are now stuck with a property tax bill. Those same people will probably end up getting hit with insurance premiums and will have to sell their homes as they become unaffordable. Now, people with cash, investors, and high incomes can purchase these homes at a lower cost due to interest rates being too high for the average person to get a loan. Absolutely little to no competition out here if you have cash or high incomes. Almost like a bait and switch
Sell it buy piece of property, build a container home in a income tax free state, bag the rest of the money and live off the interest, California taxes going to keep going up, that said you can move within the state and keep your current property tax rate for a $78,000 -100,000 assessed value, but your still going to be paying local taxes, and state income tax at a rising and expanding rate. My wife bought her house before I met her in 1997 for 127k, during the rise and fall seen estimated values near 950k here in the SF Bay Area, over the last 3 years values have declined due to shortage of liquidity, and high interest rates. We wanted to move to Nevada but now things are on hold till economy cools off, but now it’s looking like they may pump more money into the markets to revive a economy that is likely dead in the water. Regardless this may actually increase homes being held off the markets that are held by private equity and people that want out while profits are still on a margin vs loosing money on a house held too long …
Prices will only fall when we have an oversupply of new housing. Until then prices will go up. When rates are cut first buyers will be those with big savings accounts taking up everything on the market now.
My title was 4.875% and they havent presented me title since 2016 , freddie mac has been withholding title in lieu of a proper debt discharge they need to be present for.
It seems that if proper underwriting standards are followed prices will correct for financed purchases. The high end has many all cash buyers and they can pay what they want. Limit the big investment funds buying single family homes and vacation rentals. Either wages will have to come up or prices will have to come down. Maybe some of both.
Home debt collection on behalf of a mortgager actually violates state statutory applicable laws on estates. deeded in makes you first lienholder. Not freddie mac.
I feel like any crash will be very regional in nature this time, at least in the first leg. Where there aren’t diversified employment sectors and a balanced population based on age, price declines always hit harder. The Sunbelt, for example, relies so heavily on tourism and the economic activity of snowbird retirees that when that train stops, it’s devastating. Florida is already getting killed by this, as with rising housing and insurance costs, it’s no longer an attractive place for middle class retirees. So they will leave in droves. And guess what? There will be no one left to fill that gap for awhile now because the state did nothing to attract other industry or young families or jobs with high enough incomes that would contribute to a more sustainable tax base and a less volatile housing market. My point is, it’s not just prices or rates that are the problem, it’s also WHO local economies choose to cater to. Extreme imbalances like these do not make for thriving housing markets that can withstand normal economic cycles. We can blame the fed or the AirBnB bros all day, but we also need to take a hard look at our local leadership who’ve decided to cater to the loudest voters and the biggest campaign donors INSTEAD of creating sustainable local economies.
Some of these rundown houses are priced too high .People need to stop buying these overpriced houses so they will sit on the market and eventually sellers will have to drop the price.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I am on her site doing my due diligence. She seems proficient. I wrote her an email and scheduled a phone call. Thanks for sharing
I think homebuyers are really frustrated. Even if the Fed cuts rates, it might not be enough to turn things around for housing prices, given how high they've gone over the past few years. But, I think it’s important to look at both sides of the argument
Well, I agree that housing prices are still out of reach for many people. Even with the prospect of lower interest rates, it's not guaranteed to suddenly make homes affordable. The supply issues and how much housing prices surged over the past few years are bigger factors
a lot of sellers may be reluctant to list their homes if they’re locked into a low mortgage rate
But I wonder how all of this could affect first-time homebuyers specifically. They’re the ones usually hit hardest by rising interest rates, but with a cut, do you think more will jump into the market?
And let’s not forget that the cost of living is still high, and people’s savings took a hit during inflation. I think this is where financial advisors could really come in handy for buyers who want to make smart decisions.
I totally agree. A financial advisor can help homebuyers plan around these uncertainties. For instance, they can help people understand how much home they can truly afford, even with changing interest rates. It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of a "crash" and think, “Maybe I should wait,” but an advisor can look at the bigger picture of someone’s financial health and guide them on timing their purchase
It's not about the interest rate. It's about overvaluation.
Yes, for smart people. However, many people look at only their monthly payment. They think of it as renting.
It’s not just the monthly payment, because the total sales price also affects the downpayment. Lower sales price, even at a higher interest rate, would have a lower barrier to entry.
Exactly a low rate means nothing if the house is overpriced
They don’t want home prices to come down. They need higher property taxes
Sad but true
And they won’t…..
@@xGERKENATORx prices are down 40% in some areas of Florida... And they're still too high.
@@xGERKENATORxThey won't have a choice.
@BoycottRUclips how so?
Houses are still $200k too high in my area so ...NO!
Keep renting?
@ZBREHoldings if you don't want to get ripped off, they're $300k+ in mine. Haven't seen a $200k other than trailers.
@ understood but unless u live in a place with serious population decline - price are not going down
I don't care of the interest rate is 2%
Not paying these inflated prices.
You will get burned
Exactly! It’s not the rate it’s the price!! What do most people not get about that? And it’s not only price it’s the ongoing overhead 2:08 2:09 - insurance, utilities, HOA, maintenance, …….
@bdek68 Americans are the worst consumers
In the world , impulse type buyers
Absolutely! 💯
Precisely.....prices will come down in aggregate 20%...
@@WakingTheWoke1963I honestly think more like 30-40 but who’s counting!
Stick together would be buyers. Dont take the bait of small interest rate decreases. Houses are extremely over priced. This is the tipping point where they hope we bite. Wait this out, houses will come down and be smart when you buy. WE control the market.
They want EVERYONE TAKE OUT 2ND MORTGAGES AGAIN as they did in 2008. Then they will pull rug out from under us AGAIN.
💯 people have realized the slavery of debt and over paying.... We need to hold out!
Definitely purchase after the election. See if the rates drop further in addition to the home prices.
Absolutely. I have cash but I am not going to spend every dime I possess to buy a garbage built crap shack and be in debt for the rest of my life. No. I'm not broke. I have cash. It took me 61 years to accumulate this level of cash and I'm not going to buy a depreciating asset and have nothing left over for maintenance when I'm old.
I was looking at way overpriced property and it would cost me, easily, $100k to develop the property with electricity / septic / and a well (digging well plus well casing plus well pump). That's insane. And of course nothing for private property owners from the Rural Electrifciation bureaucrats. It's sickening, quite frankly.
I'm sick to death of the MSM financial media. It's full of cheerleaders. I can't take those people seriously. I remember 2007 and they didn't say jack to warn people. Those people are still on CNBC and I refuse to watch that channel because those people make me want to projectile vomit.
@@faithsrvtrip8768 Florida has no regulation so they use trash to build your homes. And then insurance can charge an Enormous amount because they’re unregulated too. Desanctimonious 😂
Amen.
@@faithsrvtrip8768 all prices falling in Florida, everyone’s leaving because everything is so poorly built and too high insurance. Thanks Desanctimonious!
I think if you have bought a house or several houses many years ago, you would be richer and have more cash now😂
Invest the money you have and keep it making more money for you
There is only one word to describe today’s housing market- overpriced- I feel sorry for whoever is trying to buy today.
It is not feasible
Me too.😢
The sad part is the top end of the market is coming down a little.. so if you have 2M to buy a house you can get a better deal today vs 2 years ago…. But the lower end homes for first time buyers are still sky high.
@@jonathantaylor6926 The opposite is true. Prices of houses for high income people are still going up while prices for middle and low income people are not going up and are coming down a little. Then again million dollar houses are considered low income houses in Los Angeles. In states with more reasonably priced houses prices are down in the $300,000 - $700,000 range.
Biden / Harris economic policies , excessive government spending, have increased asset prices and the rich have more assets. Middle class people have fewer assets and have lots of their money in cash and purchasing power of dollars has gone down
@@jonathantaylor6926yeah, the lower end has low supply and is the only thing most can afford so it will probably stay pressured. Very sad and heinous
I looked at a condo in January of 2019 it sold for 109k then re-sold in mid 2020 for 167k then sold again in 2021 for 230k now their asking 275k prices have gone parabolic. It’s total insanity! The current seller will be one to get screwed.
Yep!
I will say no. About 12% of the US households are well off and will buy. Also, there is a large number of wealthy foreigners that will buy along with institutional buyers.
I don't see a crash in housing or the financial markets. The current system is bad but is entrenched for decades.
Is it in Florida? If so, the seller will really be screwed.
Good little slave. Own nothing and be happy.
I'm just wondering why it keeps changing hands so quickly.
You can look at your surroundings and see whats going on, the most corrupt times ever
Todd, you are knocking it out of the park with these videos. Great topics and guests! Your input is also golden.
Glad you’re enjoying them. Very interesting times, thank you so much 🙏
The Low interest rates is what has gotten us into this situation. The Prices has to at some Point Drop Significantly and rates has to go up.
.
Low interest rates didn't cause this... Removal of GOLD standard and nonstop priinting of funny moeny plus big corporations inflating prices have caused this...
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing now with high inflation is the result of Low interest rates. People that like Low interest Rates don't Realize that you will be Paying more for what ever you Buy.
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing right now is the result of low interest rates. Low interest rates causes inflation. If you want low interest rates you will Pay more for whatever you buy. House's need to Drop significantly before anything meaningful happens.
@@jonmore6921 What we are Experiencing now is Because of interest rates being to Low for to Long. That's what has caused inflation. That's the result of Houses being to high and over inflated. High interest rates controls inflation. We went off of the Gold Standard in Stages with the final Stage in 1973 That's a whole different Topic.
I went to a trade school from 1993 to 1995 before going on to university. I worked on remodels, gut jobs, and took fine furniture making (at night). I know houses today are thrown together. Our teachers were honest tradesman. The old Union Trade School in Seattle it's now run by Seattle Central Community College. They teach carpenty, fine furniture, wooden boat building and how to do fiberglass. Loved that place. Great teachers, top notch experience, as well, working on real gut jobs / remodels over in West Seattle, Alki Beach. I also worked on a straw bale post-and-beam with concrete stucco house build, as a volunteer, on Orcas Island in 1997. I bet that place is worth $1 mil now.
That's cool!
In my area it would take a 25% drop in prices to reach 2020 levels adjusted for inflation, such that real home values are the same as they were. It is so outrageously unaffordable and it doesn't seem like your average person is doing all that well, so logic says prices should drop. When I hear people say, "Oh when the rates go down, the prices will skyrocket again", it makes my blood boil.
Home appreciation is a myth. Homes are depreciating assets that requite constant maintaining. The only reason prices go higher is because the dollar's purchasing power declined (and massive investor speculation).
I'm one of the people wanting to buy, but I will not buy with the inflated prices. With the impending downturn, I won't even look until prices drop back to 2020 levels. Interest rates have zero bearing on my decision. Unless rates drop below 3%, which will never happen, I will not entertain debt for a home.
@@ytrabbithole6893 YES!!!
The Housing Bubble is going to burst 💥 The time has come. It’s as simple as that; it has been long overdue. They can’t kick the can down road anymore; it’s met the dead end.
Thoughtful Money YT channel had on an excellent guest today. He is predicting stock market bubble will crash in 12 to 18 months. Buckle up. I'm good. I'll keep living the way I always live. Like I'm dirt poor and broke. I'm not but that's the way I live. It's my super power, saving money and living poor! Chin up! Every day you wake up above dirt is a great day!
Give it a couple more years.
@@backrack01 I think we’ll see the beginning of it end of this year to beginning of next year, but it will really start to unfold a little after that.
In Florida, unfortunately, with the substantial special assessments, crazy hoa, and insurance increases, a 1 percent mortgage interest rate wouldn't help that condo market. What a disaster.
I have my home on the market and also looking to buy. The problem is everything in my home has been updated and remodeled and everything I see on the market in my range has not been updated . I have been in residential construction all my life, I know a good solid home.
Unfortunately, everything in my price range for buying is ridiculously overpriced. Homes going for 150k to 370k need new roofs, they have outdated electrical and plumbing, if the walls aren’t lath and plaster the sheet rock is in poor condition and needs to be replaced. All these older homes have very poor insulation value. Regardless of the energy increases if you need to budget you need a well insulated home.
I would love to come down on the price of my home but the whole housing market will have to lower the prices so I can sell and buy.
Yes, we are in the same situation! Our house is beautiful, excellent condition, and to replace our house with same sq footage and excellent condition is near impossible. Sellers want an arm and a leg for their older homes, but they will not update them. Who can afford to pay an extra $40 to $50K to update after overspending on a house?
A 2000sqft home that was built in the 70s in early 2000s that needed a total flip costed 300k that same home today costs 600k. This is the biggest argument in the market what makes the value so high with no updates in the home. I’m calling FRAUD from the gov
The most rapid move is sellers who has been locked for four yrears. This will increase significant inventories. The current price still not realistic for 1st time buyers.
no one is going to give up 2-3% rates for 4-6....
One of the few guests that lives in reality
There is no reason to have a buyer's agent. If people sre still using them it's because they dont know better. Buyer's agents get a percentage of the sale price so buyers pay more. Seller's agents can show you a house. Lawyers can handle most aspects of the sale at a far lower price than a buyer's agent..
Totally agree! And now with these new buyer's agreements asking buyers to pay partial or all of commission to buy, on top of sneaky legal language which also is making buyers liable to pay their agent commission even if the house fails to close, for any reason, there is NO way we would ever use a buyer's agent. We are tired of the corruption and thievery.
The only way to reduce housing prices is to STOP corporate and home flippers also foreign buyers from buying up homes for families.
how bout no one can own more than two homes?
Nope. No way. Checked Zillow and saw a 1910-built house with 2B/2B in a not so good neighborhood selling for $499K. Sold in 2016 for $109K.
Edit: Sacramento county
Greedy seller, makes no sense.
Whichever side is in question, buyers or sellers, people will lose money. And as if that inflation ramping, interest rates, and increased taxes weren't enough already, they now say "unrealized gains is what we are after". No value was created in the last 7-8 years, no opportunity, no potential. Everything is about the redistribution of wealth at best.
It is not just housing the automobile market is in trouble also. Lowering interest rates for political purposes is a big mistake.
Inflation will rise.
Lance is brilliant! What a strategic mindset. Thanks for sharing your thoughts in this video, very informative and I hope it helps people be more literate in the coming times. Cheers
I live in Central Jersey...We never seem to talk about Jersey ..Wonder why? I just witnessed a Bidding war on a house...House's in my area are not dropping and they sell fast..Come on Todd lets talk about New Jersey....
New Jersey is a dumpster fire for a special breed
House prices are vastly overinflated. An older home, should never fetch anything close to newer homes, until they're are vastly updated, and remodeled. Only when an older model home, can match a newer home in every way, than you can ask new house prices. People are not only overpaying for the house, but also the location.
People need to think about property taxes and insurance before allegedly buying a house.
Whenever people talk about mortgage rates they always mention lowest prime rate in reality 99% of the population doesn’t qualify for that prime/buy rate from mortgage lenders so most people get +2-5 on top of that prime/low rate so actual mortgage rate is 8-12% right now
No it isn't. I have no idea where you're getting your numbers but you can look up the average rates in each state.
The best interview show on RUclips. From guest selection to flow and relevance - quality journalism we desperately need right now.
Too kind 🩶 Thank you 🙏
I agree.
Totally agree. This show is fantastic, and goes way deeper than just real-estate
Where did those people come from? I don’t believe Americans are buying as much as people from overseas are buying. People don’t just appear. How many died with the pandemic? It just makes no sense to say we have so many people and so few homes.
especially when they are actively building housing/apartments all the time
Trades people are buying up the whole block here. Renting out not selling.
@@andremorse9282 Exactly. It’s not the regular Joe buying. All they want to sell to the regular Joe is a trailer home. The regular people are not looking for homes because they cannot afford it. The money from Wall Street and from people from Middle East and China are the ones buying. It’s ridiculous to pretend that we are short of homes because Americans are buying.
@@cosmicllama6910 Exactly.
Instead of "targeting" 2% disinflation why don't they target -2% deflation until one dollar is actually worth one dollar silver like it used to be?
Sounds like a level headed decision here.
Best explanation of market ive heard.
One great point I’ve seen made was that new home builds have had big buy downs for the last two years… so these rate cuts are going to have little impact on moving houses. Mortgage rates aren’t dropping anyway since the FED cuts have been fully priced in.
Well done guys 👍
That comment at minute 19 is the prime example of the financial reporters being a part of the spin room for the Fed.
I wish prices in TN only went up the 40-50% y’all keep saying. They went up 110%+ here in 3 years
I worry about TN and the Carolinas; that's where the people will target from up north to retire or just pick up and move since Florida is getting impossible to deal with.
One of the problem with the median sales price is, most data mixes, Condos, SFH, Townhomes, multi-units (2-4), which totally screws the stats. My country, median sales price, $650. However, median, SFH prices, $860k. The play games with the stats!
Love your program, this guy is under educated, with respect.
Wow!! Brilliant discussion thank you gentlemen!!
Really appreciated the both of you discussing this !
Thank you both
Glad you enjoyed it and thank you for commenting 🙏
People are selling complete knockdowns above top dollar
In AU, the prices continue to increase, our PM is ignoring the negative gearing , money laundering policies that benefit investors and crooks, we have 2.4 million migrants on temporary visas, the migration stats are botched on Chinese migrants, stating it's mostly from the UK and NZ, everyone here is now mostly from China and India. We have 1 bedroom apartments selling for 700,000 + with no car space and renting for $2600 + a month. We've had 700,000 new migrants pour in over the last two years. All the new builds are defective with litigation between owners and builders. Billions in profits to the banks is beyond comprehension, the civil courts are full of neoliberals and corruption is ubiquitous.
This is where America is going. Most nations families live together. In the next decade living alone will be mostly for wealthy people
I'm in the mid-west and the housing prices here are still going up. I'm not seeing a crash, I'm not seeing major layoffs and I'm not seeing a whole lot of for sale signs in peoples yards. Many of my neighbors, as well as myself, have talked often about how we would rent our homes before we would consider selling them because of the low rates and low payments most of us have. Rates got too low for too long and now many would be sellers won't even consider it. Even if I lost my job tomorrow, God forbid, I would just put a renter in my house and go live with a relative. You'll have to pry my 2.6 rate of my dead hand because I'm not giving it up voluntarily. I feel sorry for anyone waiting for a crash in order to purchase because I don't see one happening anytime soon outside of maybe Florida and Houston.
There might be a short term correction but with the recently announced rate cuts won't be any crashes in the next few years, agreed on that point.
However , what I think is possible if job losses affect both you , me and your potential life saving renter due to AI, humanoids , etc in the next decade or two then you might have to put a mattress in your living room and have say 5 Venezuelan immigrants living there collecting UBI checks to cover all your expenses and mortgage .
I rented out my second investment place twice. Always headaches and once had to evict.
@drivingforcebehindu The rate cut and additional impending cuts will have little to zero impact on buyers. I'm one of the potential buyers and I'm firm on my stance. Rates are a snapshot, (purchase) prices are forever. Only the foolish will bite on rate cuts.
Ditto here. -got the 2.6 and not letting go.
Some people just don't know the higher prices that sold, are actually the bait to charge extra extra more to all owners 😂😂😂😂😂. Just wait til you pay more on property taxes, insurance, maintenance, permits😅
Let's be real here. The reason why the market and this country is the way that it is is because you think nothing will ever trickle down to you. You are not special, you are not unique, you are a branch in a moving river. Eventually the river will move you wherever it wants and you will zero control over it. Unless you have enough money to build a tower away from everyone and defend it, you will feel the effects as well.
What do you mean by low rate, when you pay twice the price of the home with these so called rates? When will we calling it as what it truly is: a scam, a misleading information, a ripp off.
A $300K home at 5% rate is NOT 5% interest of $300K.
This interest will cost you twice the initial price after 30 years of payment.
It is a 200% interest rate, period.
We all know that, but when I hear interest rate are too low, it is quite irritating.
CT market is like Maryland and as an agent, my buyers are always saying that this is overkill to buy. All price tier is affected and my clients are so upset and worried that the sellers and their agents are being greedy. Most of the price points need a lot of updating and major renovations. A shame that we need to also stand with our buyers about our commissions. This industry is in trouble. Thanks for sharing and I will check out RESI
Great show. I’d be interested to learn more about how the short term rental market continues to affect these home prices. We’re trying to buy in northern Wisconsin and prices are still way too high and we lose to investors.
Thank you Todd! Excellent work as usual.
Home prices are going iUP currently in New York City…where do you see DECREASE of 30 percent or mot?!?!
The problem with inventory is that there are so many “sellers” that don’t want to eat the price declines and delist. So it’s a good measure if you CAN get a deal but not the transaction prices
Not much going down in the AF Bay Area and surrounding or in San Diego CA. Prices are holding high after a very slight correction end of last year.
Incomes will have to rise, the fed would have to bring minimum wage to at least $20/hr if they want to collect more taxes on already inflated properties. The dollar has lost value at a steady pace for the last 100 years.
The inventory rates, are masqued by equity firms purchases. Most of the inventory has been bought by them, and not solely the private sector.
The rates are still too high. My rate is 3%. The houses are still too expensive. I purchased my home is 2020.
How is housing the most expensive component in regards to inflation for all household yet the feds decide to lower rates already?
Excellent interview. With many large companies now requiring employees to return to office full time, will there be some softening of prices in the exurb/rural areas they moved to in 2020-21?
If a house is livable, it doesn't matter to everyone in the market.Some people don't care about new kitchens. It's a place to live and raise your family in some cases. That was put into the minds of shoppers so that they can consume more. A functional property works just fine.
Exactly. They change decor and styles to get people to "update" via new loans....feeding the banksters.
The ones who sold my father a HARP deal listed the home on zillow for nearly twice the amount after signing onto HARP...what does that say! Meanwhile our local realtors tried to undervalue the home. He self listed too with no authority to do so. And they are supposed to represent freddie mac?
There are tons of apt rentals too , they are sitting, because they are asking too much
What jacked up prices in Florida were investors, the feds, realtors, FOMO buyers, and migration larger than usual. As far as appraisers go, the majority of jobs come through a management company. The client cannot speak directly to the appraiser and has to use the management company. The appraiser has to speak to the management company as well and not directly to the lender. At the end of the day, if some guy from up north came down and waived inspections along with paying way over asking price that house has now become a comparable unfortunately.
I'm being told by modular builders in eastern NJ $1M is entry price with no downside in equity
The more you own, the more it owns YOU
Market is propped up, REITs bought blocks of new tract housing in CA and now unloading them, no price history,
"Times they are a changin". .
The Fed's manipulations are often somewhat late, especially when coming out of some kind of crisis. Lance is right to focus on "the cards we're dealt." We definitely had rates too low for too long, and the Fed at least raised aggressively when it realized its error, and now has started to cut........The central factors for the housing market, as I see it, are not just rates and payments, but the rise in carrying costs, taxes/insurance/repairs and unexpected necessary upgrade costs/replacement costs/lawn maintenance/arborist costs and, for condos, the rise in HOA fees and dizzying special assessments. All these things seem to point to inevitable home price declines.
I think they are wrong. The facts are these: nobody who bought, and are sitting on a 2-3% mortgage will sell, neither will they default. New construction homes are expensive, because inflation has driven up cost of building hugely. It's not, as many "experts" claim, a matter of supply and demand, it's a matter of replacement/ new construction cost, and this is not going to change anytime soon.
I’m still seeing people making offers at 15-25% above appraised value. The banks are turning them down and the houses are coming back to market. But they are still offering stupid money.
I HATE THIS COUNTRY
Why are you still here. Bye
@@yulianalugo2713 he will gladly go. Devil dwells in Washington DC.
@@yulianalugo2713 are you proud of your collapsing empire?
@@PurpleLEANKrabs If you need help packing ,I’ll help you for free ….Hurry up and start packing
Whole world has issues though. Especially since Convid.
Word of the day. Constrained.
@Sachs Realty Todd please, you need to have Professor Hanke on the show. He just had an interview on kitco news and he said housing prices are not only not going down but up.
That would be a interesting interview, thank you!!
Sharing your video
Thank you 🙏 Love my audience 🤍
People in San franscisco were saying the same thing in 80s. Homes went up from $20K to $200 k in 80s. Every real estate guru said it will crash . Never happened . It has been keep going up for next 40 years
Banks love high prices and high interest rates, the consumer looses, you will never own it, your essentially renting at some point and the chances of you over paying in this economy is a definite risk unless your in for the long haul, and making triple payments!
Problem is all the investors. There should be huge taxes for investors.
Great chat
Excellent work
Sept 18 2007, the Fed cut the rate by .50....and what happened in 2008? Could a similiar setup occur now?
I think our market reflects Canadas In 2010. They never had a crash and have seen the price of homes double to triple in price. We have added 40 million people to the country since 2008. We will likely add another 60 million in the coming 15 years
Love your videos very important and interesting topics
Homes are still overpriced by about 20% or more…need at least that much in a correction, or close to it, before buying makes sense.
From my POV, there's a possibility that rates were dropped because it would increase the demand for homes. Demand for homes caused over bidding. People who bought homes at low interest rates but high list prices are now stuck with a property tax bill. Those same people will probably end up getting hit with insurance premiums and will have to sell their homes as they become unaffordable.
Now, people with cash, investors, and high incomes can purchase these homes at a lower cost due to interest rates being too high for the average person to get a loan. Absolutely little to no competition out here if you have cash or high incomes.
Almost like a bait and switch
We bought a rental house 1992 in California that built in 1920 at $73,000 now it’s valued $600,000.
Sell it buy piece of property, build a container home in a income tax free state, bag the rest of the money and live off the interest, California taxes going to keep going up, that said you can move within the state and keep your current property tax rate for a $78,000 -100,000 assessed value, but your still going to be paying local taxes, and state income tax at a rising and expanding rate. My wife bought her house before I met her in 1997 for 127k, during the rise and fall seen estimated values near 950k here in the SF Bay Area, over the last 3 years values have declined due to shortage of liquidity, and high interest rates. We wanted to move to Nevada but now things are on hold till economy cools off, but now it’s looking like they may pump more money into the markets to revive a economy that is likely dead in the water. Regardless this may actually increase homes being held off the markets that are held by private equity and people that want out while profits are still on a margin vs loosing money on a house held too long …
Prices will only fall when we have an oversupply of new housing. Until then prices will go up. When rates are cut first buyers will be those with big savings accounts taking up everything on the market now.
Pay off your mortgage.
hello from singapore. Thank you for the information
Good stuff, thanks guys!!
My title was 4.875% and they havent presented me title since 2016 , freddie mac has been withholding title in lieu of a proper debt discharge they need to be present for.
Just got an advert from Lennar Homes: Fed Rate Drop hahahaha
Demand is weakening
Appraisers also work for city government inflating home values for more taxable income.
We have gotten 3 car loans in the past for zero % interest. Not anymore. 😅
Guess what, the manufacturers will need to buy down the loans to 0% again just to sell their overpriced cars.
It seems that if proper underwriting standards are followed prices will correct for financed purchases. The high end has many all cash buyers and they can pay what they want. Limit the big investment funds buying single family homes and vacation rentals. Either wages will have to come up or prices will have to come down. Maybe some of both.
Homes were not supposed to be for investors it's for families.
They shouldnt be debt backing your home mortage into pools where title is irretrievably lost into an ETF market.
Sax, you're smarter than the Feds.
What are your suggestions to hire a good inspector and appraiser?
Fed going back to QE would imply inflation was truly extremely transitory.
Home debt collection on behalf of a mortgager actually violates state statutory applicable laws on estates. deeded in makes you first lienholder. Not freddie mac.
I feel like any crash will be very regional in nature this time, at least in the first leg. Where there aren’t diversified employment sectors and a balanced population based on age, price declines always hit harder.
The Sunbelt, for example, relies so heavily on tourism and the economic activity of snowbird retirees that when that train stops, it’s devastating. Florida is already getting killed by this, as with rising housing and insurance costs, it’s no longer an attractive place for middle class retirees. So they will leave in droves.
And guess what? There will be no one left to fill that gap for awhile now because the state did nothing to attract other industry or young families or jobs with high enough incomes that would contribute to a more sustainable tax base and a less volatile housing market.
My point is, it’s not just prices or rates that are the problem, it’s also WHO local economies choose to cater to. Extreme imbalances like these do not make for thriving housing markets that can withstand normal economic cycles. We can blame the fed or the AirBnB bros all day, but we also need to take a hard look at our local leadership who’ve decided to cater to the loudest voters and the biggest campaign donors INSTEAD of creating sustainable local economies.
Come on man, Huge exaggerating in home ownership costs. Roofs last 30+ years, heating yearly maintenance... everything else is cosmetic.
I rather live in a camper then paying this overpriced bricks
they're coming for the campers too
Capital loss is just tax exemption.
Some of these rundown houses are priced too high .People need to stop buying these overpriced houses so they will sit on the market and eventually sellers will have to drop the price.