Tesla Goes Robotaxi: Genius or Gamble?"
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- Опубликовано: 17 апр 2024
- If it's true that Elon Musk has decided to prioritize Robotaxi ahead of the Compact car, many are saying that this is a bet the company moment. What will happen in the next few years.
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Herbert
What if Tesla sees a major economic downturn where auto sales decline?
And...Tesla will be at some point be everything but a retail automobile producer.
BYD will likely dominate the retail auto market
It's the year for them to prove that they are really a tech company.
They aren’t succeeding as an automaker. At Q1 Tesla was down 10%. Evs overall were down 15%. Overall market was up 5%. Hottest products right now are Prius (new design is like a mini Lamborghini), Corrola cross and RAV 4 hybrids and plug ins.
Elon, is trying to change the narrative from we totally fucked up to Robotaxi. Robotaxi is just another shiny object that will come to nothing
Buy GM.
I agree with you two. I'm an engineer and have been researching Tesla since 2015. Recently added a lot to it because I believe in Robotaxi. And even if they don't hit that. I still believe in SAAS revenue on a quality FSD system.
Agreed. I think the FSD system will drive auto sales and at a price of $100 per month we just need the economy to improve (which it will eventually) and ppl will easily spend $100 per month for the service. There's so many use cases. Parents with kids who want the added safety of an FSD system, older ppl who have trouble seeing at night or who simply stopped driving due to the craziness of it all, people who travel to new cities frequently, the list goes on and on. I think it will become almost a necessity for some folks even if it never becomes a robot taxi.
My FSD worked when I crossed into Canada from the US with no issues.
It's not really FSD if a human driver is there in case of system failute.
Cars are shifting to a new paradigm. Human driven cars are going by way of the horse and buggy. The new frontier is self driven auto cars.
There is 0 chance of Robotaxi being released soon. I do believe it is just a distraction. Robotaxi can not be released without FSD being completed and going through regulatory approval since the Taxi will not have a steering wheel. When we actually see unsupervised FSD on the HWY we will know that the robotaxi is close . As far as production goes, the only way any manufacturing/tooling is started for robotaxi is if it shares a platform with another vehicle since I do not see them spending money today for a vehicle which is not sellable.
Spot on. And how about insurance? One bad mishap and premiums will go through the roof.
Brilliant thoughts from Hans and Herbert. Credit where credit is due I'll definitely bookmark this.
slowly slowly, then all at once,
it will feel like a light bulb of machine intelligence turned on,
making much of our manual action work, automated, cheap and abundant.
I have owned Teslas and FSD since 2015. I have driving over 200,000 miles over that time. FSD v12.3.4 is by far the best version yet. I now use it +90% of the time while driving.
More than double previous versions. Tesla needs to get the word out to retirement communities here in Florida, especially those communities that have carports instead of garages. Install prefab FSD chargers in communities. Build it they will come.
I don’t think by any stretch that Model 3 and Model Y are at their peak of what they can sell. They are fantastic products that the market is yet to open up for once there is a mindset to shift completely to EV’s. FSD should accelerate that and bind people to the Tesla brand. There is a period of hesitancy at the moment due to macro issues that is bound to pass I think. It’s just the Start for Y and 3. There is a need for their category as a robotaxi too.
Theres zero chance that Tesla will be able to completely corner FSD every other manufacturer will have their own version.
@@geelangfordo3272 there’s zero chance that any other manufacturer will have their own FSD.
It was expected that FSD would move the stock. Now that FSD (supervised) is being offered as a $99 subscription, the stock has tanked. Robotaxi can cause shares to fall further if litigation becomes the elephant in the room.
Whenever there is two or more "possible" outcomes, it's a GAMBLE......
And every choice, or failure to choose, has infinite possible outcomes. Best to hole up in your basement rather than risk a mosquito bite.
Recharging your phone there is a "possible" outcome of electrocution so you need to weight that as part of your advice and make sure you post the obvious on all social media platforms.
A lot of countries still dont have tesla. Bring them in Elon! 3:)
Elon's vision and ability is at a level we can't comprehend.
Yes, of course. Because as an Economist masquerading as an Engineer, even Elon can't comprehend what he is talking about.
❤❤
@@nakedbrownape sounds like a little male envy
Amen Brothers! For Risk Mitigation and benefits of vertical integration, Tesla must run a significant RoboTaxi pilot. Perhaps after a Phase-1, then just like done with FSD development roll out carefully. That said, after the Tesla LRIP (robo and employee tests), then slowly manage both the Robo and Compact roll-outs.
Cheers, Eric
A model3 with 125 miles range (removes more than 1/2 the battery pack) I think would sell big numbers . They can take some of the bells and whistles out also.
If there is not some sort of supervision of current owners putting their vehicles into a ride share fleet with a guarantee of quality of maintenance, ‘bad’ owners could quickly give a bad reputation to the service. So I think a minimum quality guarantee will be necessary for a ride share service to succeed.
HERBERT: Can you please address, what is the global TAM for the Model 2 and estimated revenue VS the TAM for FSD in US only revenue. How far apart is the global revenue Model 2 vs the FSD that is US only? ALSO: how long will it take for FSD to move to places outside the US? So for how many years is FSD locked to the US market only?
ROBO TAXI is coming - JUST SLOWER than most people realize, since there are many bottlenecks, but once ramped - OMG.
No transportation authority in any country has ever allowed a fully autonomous vehicle of any type. To just assume that will happen one day is a crazy gamble. Planes have tens of millions of dollars worth of autopilot equipment and are not allowed to operate without pilots.
If it looks bad for robo....they just put a wheel and peddles in it. But if you only need 100000 robos to run...you can do both.
Grammer matters
Robotaxi would require a perfect level 5 ..... This may be a while away.....
is waymo a perfect level 5?
They have robotaxis.
If no, then you don't need perfect level 5.
If yes, then there is already a proof case in existence -- that Tesla can benchmark against.
you dont even know how many disengagement waymo have. its very possible they need to constantly remote control when something goes wrong. and that is in a controlled geo fence environment. cruise base on report have a high rate which someone need to remote control when something goes wrong.
Waymo is level 4. Level 5 doesn't exist yet. Tesla will be the first to mass produce Level 5 vehicles
@@BeAtLeBoAr 2 totally different approaches... Tesla cannot copy Waymo
@@christianartman two different approaches but validation of the output is there
Snarky web answer: it’s both 😊.
Once the public gets used to the idea quality difference in FSD experiences will matter, and a significant number will always opt for a human driver for a generation. No one else has the data Tesla does, and even BYD would take years to catch up. Given all that, many car makers will opt for taking the easy way out and licensing in FSD per the model proposed recently on X, I think by either WholeMars or JamesCat…
I hit the like button and always appreciate what you do for us investors. Here’s my concern Hubert and listen Iv been in Tesla for many years and still think highly of Elon. Quarter after Quarter it’s oh this happened or that and then it’s oh let’s project out again and again. And what if they do this or that. As an investor i just don’t want to ride the ship down. Sure someone will say then sell! But I don’t want to sell. Does anyone else feel like me? I’m a pragmatic guy and not a no brain follower.
In places like China and India, a smaller car is almost a necessity, smaller than the model 3.
I agree with Hans, FSD will probably impact revenue for 2024.
Don’t you have other guest speakers?
`This feels like a "bet the company" strategy, which is something Elon said in 2018 he would never do again. As someone who is ready to trade in my 2018 Model 3, I'm going to pause until I get clarity from Tesla. Updates to Model 3 & Y will buy some time, but does Tesla have plans for future cars in the US that people can drive? Tesla needs to communicate their plans with more detail than an X post. Robo taxi is high risk because your success depends on a third party: the government.
I believe there has never been a more clear cut example of “a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.” Our bird in the hand IS the Tesla compact vehicle. To wait for both “robo” vehicle and model 2 to mature will take longer to ramp and longer to return cash to Tesla. Additionally, to heavily discount existing vehicles ( 3 & Y ) shows weakness in the brand. To avoid “Osborning” the 3 & Y offer 0% financing on those models only. A hefty mandatory down payment in exchange for 0% will add perceived value while keeping margins in tact, hallelujah! Tesla will need to prime the financial lending pump at some point. Zero % interest financing is a sales magnet, fact. The model 2 would need no lending discount and will sell like hotcakes. It’s tough for all of us to stomach the time lag for our investment returns. Let’s hope this wait pays off while we’re still breathing.
Elon has mentioned that Elevators began with human Operators before they were reliability Automated, and you can say similar things about Railway Schedules and Airport Controls etc, even Baggage Handling, so the holistic interpretation of Taxi operations is in the same category, eventually Automatic, which is why Tesla is the Software Company of Energy Efficiency and effective management.
Comparing operating an elevator to driving people around in a busy city is retarded. They still have drivers on trains, as well as planes.
If FSD is complete then the best track to sustainable energy and to rollout to full production is robotaxi. In addition to everything else, it would accelerate changing the way much of the world looks at owning vehicles that spend most of their time idle but not cost free.
Without FSD complete, you step back to a compact consumer vehicle until FSD is complete.
Robotaxi could become the main purchaser of used Teslas with reduced battery range due to age and would significantly change the value of used Teslas.
most people will not want their cars to be used by strangers-especially if they are not in the car within them to encourage good behavior. sure, plenty of people will use robotaxi with their own vehicles/fleet companies and that makes the most sense to me as an early use of robotaxi. that said, i agree with those that say Tesla would need to prove concept-insurance-before individuals will take liability.
When can you dedicate a video just for the semis?
lol the tesla semi ramp has been a joke.... tesla doesn't release hardly any info on it.
I’m curious what your rational is regarding the likelihood that people will be able to use their vehicles as robotaxi’s. It seams that there are a number of benefits to that model. 1. It’s another way to let individuals produce income. (Elon will want other’s to profit from FSD and maybe not just other large companies). 2. It seams likely to me that the robotaxi is going to be a 2 seater vehicle, thus the model 3, Y, etc.. will be a higher tear option for people who want more riders and/or. More comfort. 3. Easy way to distribute services quickly and have others manage the vehicle without needing additional infrastructure. I’m hard pressed to think of downsides other than being able to manage quality (possible with a review structure) and liability.. solving with insurance expansion.
What kind of revenues and how much margin can RoboTaxi bring to Tesla. Combined annual Uber & Lyft revenues are about $40 Bil. I hope RoboTaxi can be built at a low enough cost so that decent margins can be earned. It may be smart for Tesla to Spin Off the RoboTaxi company altogether. It is a different business.
Wouldn't a partnership with Uber be a good way to get started with a personal vehicle robotaxi network?
Hans should’ve gone through the numbers for Fsd this calendar year that formed the basis for his disagreement about 2024 financials.
Like the two top executives that just left Tesla, I think the delay/cancellation
of the '$25K car is a gross mistake. Murphy's Law says the Robotaxi will
not be approved by regulators for at least 3 years. Meanwhile the stock 'tanks'.
Give them credit for thinking through all the scenarios. The world’s greatest entrepreneur should have it worked out.
Only 2 top executives? What’d the rest say?
By your logic, why side with the 2 who left, not the many who stay?
If Tesla can make a fully autonomous robotaxi by 8.8.24, what will this do to the sales of other Teslas when people fully understand that it is the same software that is in FSD in their own cars or that they can rent, and make their own car give a lot of income?
What if robotaxi is total redesign, ground up, not just remove controls of family car?
What if it’s way safer configuration for the job? Offers luxurious level of personal space?
4:13 Robotaxis prioritized in USA other countries will get a compact car on the same platform.
It makes sense to manufacture the compact cars in India for the local market and export to Europe.
Herbert, how many model Y's does Tesla lease? We all know the leasor doesn't have the option to buy. In the past, what happens to these cars? Why couldn't Tesla start stock piling them to release as a robotaxi on Aug 8th? They could probabpy have 100k of them in a month's notice if they wanted. They could even modify the expired leased cars to have auto shutting doors.
I'm not sure why we're so focused on robot taxi as if that is the only bullet in the gun? Get a fully functional FSD system at $99 per month and market market market. When interest rates are lowered and all ppl see are ads showing these cars (same price as your Toyota Camry for example) with the ability to drive itself sales will sky rocket. Every commercial should be targeted towards a certain type of consumer that FSD will benefit. Ppl will start seeing it as a no brainer. If robo taxi comes down the line great. If the $25k car comes down the line, great. I think we start with the existing fleet getting fully functional FSD at an affordable price and market the hell out of it. Grab the ppl that can afford 3YXS and then come out with the cheaper car later. Hopefully that will coincide with lowered interest rates which most ppl in that price bracket will need anyway. Some ppl will stretch to get a 3 because nothing cheaper is available. If the $25k is available now they'll just get that instead.
My advice for working class Tesla shares holders like me, this is the time to work extra hours and hold the same time to minimize the losses. I personally don’t have other options it’s just to work more hours.
When you sell a car to consumers there is pressure to push down the price in order to be profitable. The robotaxi is the 25k car but there is actually less important for this car to be cheap to produce. You want to be able to produce them in very large numbers. Tesla think the gross profit per robotaxi is 30k per year so if the car cost 20k to produce the cost will be repaid in less than a year but lets say it was 60k to produce, even in this case it would only take 2 years to cover the cost. Then you would have 9 more years of 30k profits.
I think any tesla car could be a robotaxi. The cybertruck would be great as a robotaxi, imagine how many would pay more to show up to the party with a cybertruck.
for me drew leaving is like karpathy. its done and now they are pivoting. remember andre said holiday mode, maybe battery side is in auto now too so just a matter of time.
What stops Tesla from using surplus model 3 or model y vehicles for a taxi?
Steering wheel is an issue.
It’ll happen, but far from ideal.
Early cars were stage coach with motor. Not for long.
What if the other businesses like energy and bot will suddenly become profitable
FSD will create so many possibilities that nobody knows the final decisions. Should FSD prove to be safer than a human driver by many folds, every car in the future will have no choice but ask Tesla to install FSD on their car. I believe that Tesla can have both Robo taxi and compact car. No other company will have these great choices but Tesla.
Every major manufacturer is already building their own FSD it will then become a race to the bottom and you'll have to put it standard issue with every car to compete.
Hope we get compact car late 2025, otherwise stock is dumping hard.
If the company don’t need to raise capital for next 1-2 years, why does any of these worries matter? Just concern about competitors crowd out market share of rev and profit by catching up or capturing addressable market ahead of Tesla on TAAS
Consider this: North American made batteries have not ramped fast enough to over everything they are needed for. The $25,000 car will need a huge amount of batteries if they are produced at volume, as will the Cybertruck. Robotaxi will be a more limited market initially, but much more profitable using the lease option. Batteries will catch up eventually. I still expect to see the $25,000 car in late 2025.
Herbert - I really like your channel because you present facts. But this episode was just wild ass speculation.
What if they run out of money?
This is definitely a gamble. Elon needs to put twitter on auto pilot and focus on tesla.
Very few Model 2 owners will buy FSD. More profitable to build Robotaxi for profitable recurring revenue.
I think China competition has become wait too hard to beat on the high volumes car sectors (>25k cars…), and especially on Asian market which is the most growing one these years.
Tesla will try to sell robotaxis in Europe and USA, Japan as we are aging people and many will want that. But it’s a huge bet. The good point is that Elon has a lot of those ai chips to go pioneer
Tesla would certainly be able to offer the insurance at a greatly reduced rate but to offer it free of charge, that doesn’t make any financial sense.
They can also individually alter the insurance premium according to each driver’s history, of which Tesla has much greater insight than any regular insurance company.
Logical and polite question: Who is going to check back seat after every ride if there’s no driver? Without this check EVERY next passenger gonna be surrounded by trash, plastic bottles, napkins, pieces of snacks etc. How this robotaxi model is going to overcome this problem?
I suspect that Tesla just laid off more than 14,000 employees not because EV adoption is slowing down in the USA but because of the price war in China initiated by BYD. I don't think all the other Chinese brands were that willing to go into the price war because they don't have the cost advantages of BYD.
Personally, I have thought for the last six months or so that a stripper version of the model three would be the best $25,000 car less options less battery less tires less everything just a stripper version
People mistakenly believe that Tesla is in some kind of downturn. They don't understand the macroeconomic situation. You have mortgage rates over 7%. I spent 15 years in the mortgage industry and can tell you that every few years people refinance their house and consolidate everything into that new loan. With mortgage rates over 7% they can't do that. Their current mortgage is down in the threes and they can't refinance at 7%. This means the vast majority of people cannot afford a new car right now. If and when things improve and interest rates come down a little bit, something below 5% for mortgage, that's close enough that people could justify refinancing and consolidating. But until then, robotaxi is the way to go because it does not require people to purchase a new car. By the time the Fed decides to lower interest rates again, Tesla could have a million robotaxis on the road. This means another million cars feeding into FSD data, plus the existing cars and any new sales, plus repeat buyers who trade in their car every 3 to 5 years. You're going to be looking at over 3 million new Teslas in a couple of years. The whole thing looks impressive if you just get past the fact that it's just a car company.
BOTH exclusively autonomous AND inexpensive driver's cars, multiple models.
upvoted!!
Technically level 3
Hans😂😂😂
Great channel IMO all this talking about Tesla is great, but maybe instead Tesla delivering earnings growth every year is better?
Gamble. Risky… very risky.
Herbert: Model 3 is old, old. Can’t reduce it to $25k, even at zero profit, needs a total redesign. So much new tech introduced, needs integration. $25k is difficult price to meet, hence unboxed assembly, discussion over no paintshop.
Hans: Spot on. Tesla has advantage in FSD autonomy, why cater for low profit market? - leave market to manufacturers of dumb cars. Profit & utility potential of taxis far superior to private cars.
Don’t force smart people to do dumb stuff.
Tesla Robo Taxi will be regulated by States and will be limited to how many will be allowed. I pretty sure they will need to be monitor live 24/7 in case something goes wrong with the car or in case of an emergency and if someone disable and sole the car. The State will require high liability Insurance in case the car gets into an accident and passenger get hurt or killed so it most likely be really expensive to own a Robo Taxi business. State will control what area and routes a Robo Taxi will be able to go with in the State and will be only register to that State. That is why Tesla is just another car company as all their revenues come from the sale of cars. So, it will be a big mistake not to make the $25,000 car first priority before the Robo Taxi.
How about if he offers 0% interest if they get FSD on a monthly?
There are approximately 15 Million Uber and Lyft vehicles on the road. It seems possible that 10 Million of those could become RoboTaxis. If Tesla can produce 2 Mil Robotaxis a year it will take Tesla 5 years to get there.
First step is to instill confidence in the public (not just Tesla enthusiasts) over FSD. Launching Robotaxis before this will be a disaster.
No margin DCA, see you in 2030 🎉🎉🎉
Before a person can use their car as a robo taxi they will have to address a different insurance program that really does not exist today.
The unboxed design will enable Tesla to remain a lowest-cost leader in the production and life-cost accounting for operation and servicing with minimized downtime and maximized time-convenience for EVs of all types. Scale will also remain important for achieving the best EV affordability fundamental to the Tesla mission. These factors combine to enable new lowest-cost / highest-value designs for compact EVs, as well as next gen Model S, 3, X, Y and CTs, regardless of the timing of Robotaxi's actual availability, plus Robotaxi's/FSD's ongoing improvements applicable for ALL Teslas and possible non-Tesla licensees of FSD/Robotaxi functionality.
Acceleration of Tesla's next gen unboxed model(s) more specifically optimized for Robotaxi functionality is needed primarily due to the step-change and more rapid acceleration in FSD's capability experienced with the recent shift to the Neural Network based controls.
Even if robotaxi comes, who is going to use it? Not convenient at all for daily commute (peak demand during peak traffic hours and low demand during off peak hours. So it's definitely not for commute. There is no way to increase it's utilization to 5x...
K.
Stock is headed to $100. Even if you think FSD will be achieved, this has been gross mismanagement by Elon & Co.
Too little clarity from the company . You guys follow so closely yet there's confusion or incomplete scenarios built on unknown. No clarity!
You can’t lay it all out in advance for the benefit of your competitors and detractors.
@@paulmcgreevy3011...lol. I thought Tesla was a leader, so far ahead of the competition. I guess not.
I would not be happy if Tesla pushes the new model into late 26. That is not what investors had been promised. I’m very hopeful that Tesla will launch a new Model Y by early 2025. Unless Elon announces a very near term revenue opportunity for FSD on 8/8, we will likely be screwed as shareholders for at least 12-18 months. Those that scream we must be long term investors. I’ve been in Tesla for almost 4 years and my investments are very down, as i buy down. My investment horizon from here is 10-15 years, but my retirement is 4. This is not where I expected to be with Tesla compared to my other major company investments. Hopefully Elon gets his court win and board wins, as deserved.
The model 3 is not small and many want a more compact car and want a newer form vehicle. Those that think most people don’t care about new body styles, they are wrong.
Ah, reality...how refreshing. Tesla could go broke before FSD hits level 5 (or 4 even). Not saying it will, but assuming it won't or can't is just overly optimistic.
fsd is a big gamble ...it probably will never be good enough to go the taxi route ...supervised fsd should make money ... but is not necessary ... their energy etc ... that stuff is highly certain
if they are making a lot of recurring revenue on a robotaxi, then you can lower the price of the 3 and Y to zero or even negative margins. you no longer have to profit on them. plus they'd still have FSD capability. It's like the XBox/PS5. they make no money on the hardware. all the money is made on games and subs.
You can discuss all future possibilities but the real one is Tesla stock keeps going down to the same lowest price of last year. $100
If FSD is so safe, why not reduce 50% (or whatever amount) of insurance coverage for FSD drivers.
It's coming. In fact, the time is soon here when you will be charged higher premiums, or denied insurance altogether, if your vehicle does not have FSD.
Level 3 coming this summer and level 5 next summer when Mexico finished
Mexico finished next summer?? They haven't even started the construction yet.
Gamble tha may be also success. Ditching 90% of the company to grow 10% of it needs some balls, which are apparently at the moment nailed to the wall.
50% chance this could fail, but 50% it can succeed
I am ready for RoboTaxi now! I don't own a car in the US for the first time in 63 years (driving since 16, 79YO now.) I am healthier by walking, and take Ubers when needed around town, and rentals for long trips. The expected 2 seat RoboTaxi would be great for most around trips, but having the option of S or X for trips to the airport with luggage would be perfect.
Surprise; the “unboxed 21st century automobile manufacturing method” affords an opportunity to create a model 3/Y version “UB” in the 20k to 25k range and still make a great margin. Dinosaur legacy just got hit by an extinction level event.
Such a bad business move. The guy makes the call because he can. And because he likes drama, simply because when at that wealth there is not much that gives you a rush.
Grow up Elon. Betting your whole company on Self driving?
Robot Taxi or not, there is no place to produce new models soon. Only Texas expanding right now. Competitors will produce cheaper cars than model 3. Tesla will loose some buyers in this case.
I'm a convicted bull too 😢😢
Right, no disrespect, but who are these two dudes? What have they achieved to discuss the future of Tesla?
Robotaxi, is just another Elon hype, that will come to nothing
Wooohooo Elon is giving away free money. Or it is too good to be true.
Any time someone sells you a product that will "easily make you rich", you have to ask yourself why wouldn't they just do it themselves? They say, " because I'm so rich now, I want to share", which of coarse is always a lie. Nobody is ever too rich or too pretty.
Total echo chamber in here 😂Tesla down again, worst stock on the S&P 500 for a long time now!
This discussion makes no points. The discussion should include how robotaxi fleet will scale and work. Can they start robotaxi now? Maybe. Where do they start. You should make your most likely thoughts and not just wander.
prolly nothing will happen. It will just take 1 - 2 more year extra untill they reach 3000$. I personally would do refresh model X S Y. Then go truck and after that small car.. after that go Robot taxi. That way they be super super super rich.
Sorry , I’m long tsla too but this sounds like bag holder talk
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