Elon Musk *Critical* Tesla Stock Flip | FSD & Robotaxi
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
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This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.
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Kevin looks like an Amazon worker on his BOSS sweater 😂😂
lookin like he escaped from Arasaka tower
One of the reasons I don’t have a Tesla is because I know I wouldn’t be able to reasonably afford FSD… but that completely changes if it’s only $99/mo… I think this makes teslas much more attractive!
Good point. Having a reasonably priced FSD can actually stimulate Tesla EV demand.
Doubt.
No one has realised yet but tesla will be forced to give FSD to other manufacturers to keep the public safe. The public will demand all self driving cars utilize the best technology. Think about it from the pedestrians point of view.
Yes 🥩 Kevin !!!
My god it looks like gorgeous weather there ( shout out from oregon )
Finally. They should’ve done this before lowering the price of the car.
Absolutely
They missed so much revenue from FSD when they raised to 12k. Maybe they can sell FSD to other companies and generate revenue there. What do you think?
@@MeetKevinthey should have just given FSD free to add value to the purchase.
I think it will increase replacement car sales. I’ve been wanting to replace my Y but didn’t want give up my FSD.
However I’m waiting for a model refresh.
The part about who is going to clean the Robo Taxis stood out to me…another possible job creation (RoboTaxi Cleaner) didn’t think about that.
They can partner with existing car wash businesses and just send the car to their parking lot to be cleaned.
Robo robots cleaner machine
Can't wait for the side hustle videos.
You really don’t need that many vehicles to decrease wait times. James Duoma figured with just 200 Robotaxis strategically placed around Chicago there would be a robotaxi within 60 seconds of any given point of the city
That works if the 200 robataxis just stand at the designated strategic point. As soon as they move with customers it doesn’t work because customers are unlikely (that’s an understatement) to move in tandem from one such strategic pint to another.
Much respect for your take Kevin! Thanks for sharing your insights!
Hi Kevin, as always thanks for your valuable videos and content! I have to admit, I would love to be part of your crew and constant innovations.
Kevin why does Tesla want all the leased cars back?? You don't get a buy option after your lease is over. Thats a ton of cars coming off lease. Yes some he sells but not having that option as a consumer is really odd. He is the only Manufacturer that does that , that I know of.. I'm sure this is a serious cheap option of getting cars on the road as robos, the major expense has been paid for by the lease customer.
Nope, it's a signal that they want to feed the AI more now that they are no longer compute constrained, as a short term subscription price. Also, starting low before true autonomy is solved will lock in customers as they increase the price slowly in the future
If FSD really works it should boost sales of Tesla cars without need for price cuts . Anyone buying a high priced car ice or EV will demand FSD too
Another great video. Thanks!
What camera u use here Kevin? Very good quality 👍
Yes I want to go to wherever he is
Roadmap?
IBM were still expected to sell 4 computers a year in the late 50s.
I got a Lyric commercial while watching your video 😂
What about selling fsd to other car companies??? Did you forgot??
Compute is IQ, Data is “text book of physics + many years working experience in a company” , which one is more important for FSD now, do you understand?
Hey, what do you think about BC in Canada permitting only level 1 and 2 full self driving on their roads? Ie. They describe tesla as level 2, while Mercedes is level 3. Would love to know your opinion if laws restrict other vehicle FSD?
U r the best at explaining things Kevin.
Is that your Alex Baldwin Trump impression?
Definitely Trump
It dont have to get better forever. Once it gets there...its there
I like this free FSD much better.
...and she makes sandwiches too.
People also like free house, free car and free everything, will we get them free?😊
@@AIVision_Eragoofball comment
Thanks for your insight
Finally, it is nice to hear that analysts are getting more realistic about FSD and robotaxi.
Canadians pay $99.00CAD per month which is approximately $72.00USD.
I think fsd in a per mile like $0.30 a mile makes way more sense and put us in a robotaxi mindset
Best overview on Tesla in a long time. Maybe being outside the office brings the best out of your insights 👍
They will sell the old GPUs too though. Did you factor that in?
How do you think people allowing their personal vehicles to act as robo taxis will play into things?
6:31
8,500,000 Teslas - where did you get this number from?
you are looking at it wrong. the cost burden shifted from investor to customer. that means the outlook for investors is improved
On top of all that, there are 2 biggest problems on all of this robo taxis:
1) Vehicle maintenance and depreciation : Probably robotaxis will require better maintenacr than regular vehicules and people would have less care
2) Liability: when smtg bad happens who will go to jail? The engineers ? elon? Owner of the car (if we go back to personal fleets of robo taxis)?
Excellent and the best explanation on Tesla valuation I have ever heard! I am a fan!
Kevin, what area in Florida? It looks beautiful.
Please "confront" Cern Basher about his Robotaxi valuation models. I think it'd be a great discussion.
I think you are wrong about the robotaxi. There don't have to be that many of them, if the price is low initially it will steal a lot of business from Uber, enough that drivers will not make a living and will find other work thereby increasing Teslas market share. Also, people will adapt to planned trips which will be easier for robotaxi to do.
if people would addapt they would just take public transportation
I love fsd on my car in Canada. I just went from my garage all the way to my parking spot at the gym on fsd no interruption
Hi Kevin. Once again, one of your best, non comformaty biased, casts. I think your scenario based approach is great, an i truely feel that your are trying to do non biased casts. Thanks!!!! Although I am far apart from your political standpoints, I really enjoy your perspectives!!!
Looks like you’re in Fort Lauderdale, that’s awesome. I stayed at the W right behind you.
The barrier to entry for AI is why the companies like tesla, pltr, etc that have already invested will dominate
FSD may also increase overall sales of vehicles
Kevin needs to wear sunglasses 🕶️ 😊
You seem to be missing the point, what do you think happens when they integrate fsd in other vehicules. Fsd tam is litererally about transforming the whole outstanding fleet (assuming they have cameras and wtv) into robots. Installation of req hardware will just be another source of revenue on top of high margin software licensing.
Licensing FSD to other automakers would be a wildcard.
Thanks for all you do Kev.
have you factored in new LFP batteries, CATL claims they have 20% more range and cost 50%...
They are pushing to monthly subscriptions so that they can raise the price when FSD becomes more functional.
I wonder if Tesla robotaxis could deliver things like food or large parcels, it’s endless, they could even have autonomous police patrol vehicles or security.
Maybe they will launch robotaxi car first and then they can immediately launch compact personal car to avoid the Osborne effect.
Kevin reminds of the people that resisted seatbelts back in the day and subsequently airbags and we know how that ended up......
Dude on your last tesla video you said robotaxi would take 6 yrs and now its 10? Which is it? What do you base your assumption that it would take this long???
I heard that some semi's are running driverless in some States. Some people find it to be very scary.
How can you leave Energy out of your calculus?
From my understanding I would only purchase FSD if I can put my Tesla on the robotaxi network generating $30 k a year in revenue. I think that is when it would be worth to pay for FSD.
Obviously no one knows the answer for sure but I do not believe we are 10 years away from Tesla’s Robotaxi. I see it within 6 years aka by the end of this decade. AI, further advancements in and subsequent investment in chips by Tesla will accelerate the completion of FSD imho.
As I listening to you a thought came to mind. This could potentially increase the amount of people that buy a Tesla, given that they no longer have to finance 12,000 of FSD which may allow those that were previously unable to get financing to get financed. Also, the pool of tesla models in the Pre Owned market has expanded for those looking at vehicles with FSD, which could potentially lower Tesla used car inventories, thus having some people just buy a new one instead.
Anyone know what Florida beach is in this video?
? Wait ? 13:00 can’t all teslas be a robotaxi if fsd is fully fsd? Therefore no, millions of cars overnight? Someone give me a response
Kevin stock market is futuristic, if there is enough enthusiasm for the FSD, investors don’t mind company to spend upfront , this is 101
Boost sales now and train the system faster win win win
No that consistent AI R&D costs are not needed, once FSD has been solved (which is very close now), no need for that huge R&D anymore,
We also dont know if the competition will have something like FSD im the future to!
When complete, FSD will be one of the biggest engineering feats that humans have ever accomplished. You don't just give something like that away like Kevin is always driving for. It's very clear that Elon wants to drive training miles and FSD adoption in the short term with the $100 a month subscription. He'll definitely be raising the price down the road. Remember long ago when Elon had hinted that Tesla would like to build Model 3's purely for robotaxi's in the future? There's a reason that Elon has called the 8/8 reveal a robotaxi reveal and not the Model "whatever". My guess is that Elon doesn't even want one time FSD subscriptions out there because it's one time revenue. Why make $2500 one time from building a drivable robotaxi when you can make many times that by using it as a robotaxi for its entire life while also smoothing out a lumpy revenue stream? My guess is that in the long term for Elon FSD is 100% about driving monthly subscription revenue to the bottom line in one way or another. Don't be surprised if in the future a one time purchase option isn't an option anymore. Elon hinted about this around the Model 3 launch and even went as far as suggesting that one day Tesla might not even sell Model 3's to the public. I think you're great Kevin but Elon has never been on a path to including FSD just for a one time sale. The opposite is actually true.
Why choose to be a company with lumpy sales on hardware when you can be a company that has juicy reoccurring software sales? Tesla is one of the few companies that has this choice.
Humans has ever engeniered? Did animals do something better..or mabye aliens? Elon, when did you start writing under the pseudonym Carsonc1272?
The market decides what the value of FSD is. I remember when Segaway scooters were going to be a big deal. People decided to keep walking. Then dockless scooters and Bird Scooter was worth billions. Now Bird has a market cap of $900,000. Elon keeps dropping the price on FSD because the customers aren't willing to pay his price. Elon is getting closer, but $100 a month is still too high IMO.
IMO FSD we be included for free as a feature that will create and maintain a moat against competition
Yex CapX will flatten the margin, and be it. Takes another year to be profitable.
Sorry but the UBER endgame is the same Tesla tries to solve, they don't need any drivers anymore in the long term
Must be selling like hotcakes!
i own tesla stock and have model Y 2023 i recently ordered. I immidiately canceledd FSD on it..
1st you need to move your wheel every other 30 sec (so its not ready to drive by itself for a minute)
2nd cant drive more than 4 minutes wihout me actually taking control on any day unless im on interstate....
Govenment regulations forced Tesla to increase the nags.
Its not Teslas fault. Everytime you get nagged blame the government. I think it was NHTSA.
Find out who pushed this rule against Tesla. Do a deep dive down he rabbit hole. Find out why. Who does it benifit? Who makes money from the law forcing Tesla to add excessive nags? Whose money does it protect😮
the voice of reason always come through
You look extra happy today. Wishing that baby Summer is home.❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
I subscribed
maybe the $12k FSD purchase will be a lifetime token which you can transfer to any other Tesla/FSD car
Hey Kevin! Long time listener… never comment! Come to Delray on the Ave! Love to meet you and get you a beer later!!
Will FSD lower CAR INSURANCE????Seems like car companies are ripping peoplr off or LAWS R PREVENTING insurance DIFFERENCES BETW customers
Isn't Florida hot though?
Not only FSD, I think you should also include ROBOTAXI fleet revenues in 2025 and 2026. They are both 2 different segments. TESLA is shifting from auto into ROBOTAXI service in near future. Not 10 years, but within 2-3 years. But I agree that ROBOTAXI need to be ramped up in 1-2 years and they should draw a road map for investors like us to expect their earnings.
ASICs like... Dojo, and the FSD inference chip?
I think 12 and a 1/2 is a lot. I think maybe ten percent would be good if I even get that.
Bear in mind the AI chips are depreciated over several years and I'm not sure Tesla will throw them away just because a new model of chip came out. So the costs could be a lot lower per year than mentioned here.
That wind is obnoxious
I don't think anybody really believes it's 100% profit in the bigger picture. The pure profit part refers to the fact that there is no significant operating expense. The capex has been spent and more is yet to be spent, but it's not like cars where each new customer requires expense to make a profit.
Hardware 2.5 vehicles will likely not qualify for the monthly subscription as a computer upgrade is needed. If you buy FSD for $12,000 Tesla will upgrade your car from 2.5 to 3.0 at no charge.
It should be limited time offer for 99.99 a month special offer for people who sign up in the next few months 3 to 6 months or something like that
🥩 Kev is South Florida!?!?
Need a better wind cover for that mic.
Agreed with Kevin's analysis on this. Too many Tesla Bulls/fan boys are immediately drinking the hopium juice. This will take time over time, but short term, I see some more pain coming if earnings really disappoint
Where in are you in Florida. I live in Boca 🏖️🌞
Uber have to account for gas price while tesla energy is a lot cheaper. Hence we can crush them from that perspective
Many will subscribe for FSD on long road trips and also for Uber/ubereats delivery. This will make people life easy
I think more people would be interested in buying a Tesla now that they don't have to pay 12k for FSD. Just talking to my family about how they were wanting the FSD but don't want to pay so much to get FSD upfront. Now they might consider pulling the trigger because its only price of car + $100 a month for FSD. FSD to me is the moat for tesla right now, and might drive some demand for purchasing new cars. Overlooked opinion?
12k will be a golden ticket for fleet inclusion, simples!
Boost sales now
■ 🎹 ■
Kevin's basically correct... BUT based solely on the calculus of TODAY'S metrics involved. YES, there will be corresponding costs of growth. But Kevin's unfactored metric is RATE of technological growth, i.e. all factors involved with the emergent nature of the AI's (i.e. FSD's) growth, riding the back of GPU investment/growth. If that growth is ANYTHING beyond linear, Kevin's analysis is out the window, and the result is #TSLA zooming to the moon 🚀
I’m very hopeful this is correct
Someone needs a dead cat mic cover.
Great example of an moment where Tesla bulls think the game is forever changed and the rest of Wallstreet will see mostly as a nothing burger. Make FSD flawless, prove it and get past regulators and that will make a huge move
I bought right away.
AI is not chip only, Data is more important, Tesla is no longer compute restricted
Are you a TSLA trader or an investor?
was that a donald trump impression😂