Ukraine-Russia Series: Eurofighter vs Su-57: ruclips.net/video/OnKuV6259ck/видео.html MALD, Storm Shadow & AARGM-ER: ruclips.net/video/d6p0YY_VQZY/видео.html Storm Shadow vs Russian SAMs: ruclips.net/video/5wJPbBAj0WM/видео.html Iskander vs Various SAMS: ruclips.net/video/KxxahORODBA/видео.html HIMARS vs Russian SHORADs: ruclips.net/video/DI6yIt0goPA/видео.html Storm Shadow vs Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/UsHa9Fe29gI/видео.html Rapid Dragon vs Black Sea Fleet: ruclips.net/video/rvUTl6xjxqY/видео.html Ukraine With JDAM-ER: ruclips.net/video/deWnN1319Xw/видео.html UK Typhoons vs Su-57: ruclips.net/video/OnKuV6259ck/видео.html F-22 Raptors vs Russia President: ruclips.net/video/Fcmt2kdebvI/видео.html Air Force One vs Russia: ruclips.net/video/IDVULTyzcEw/видео.html AGM-179 JAGM vs 2S38 & T-90: ruclips.net/video/6-f8GJzxg5E/видео.html SEAD & ATACMS vs Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/HJ0MgwXydyY/видео.html IMP US Strike vs Black Sea Fleet: ruclips.net/video/xSUAiTVwI6o/видео.html HIMARS 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They were using PAC-3 CRI. The Kh-47M2s were launched much further away than they were here too. In the second incident of multiple M2s being intercepted, at least 35 PAC-3 CRIs were launched.
@@cockatoo010 mse are almost double the range of the cost reduction initiative but you can fit 12 instead of 16, and those cost $4 million too! I wonder what kind of radar Ukraine got? Probably the old one mq54!
It’s a shame that the core game doesn’t allow for modification of how many interceptors are fired per a single incoming missile because the standard is to launch two PAC-3 at a single target-one simply hits the missile (hit-to-kill) and the second targets what’s left of the warhead section to minimize the risk of an explosives-packed chunk of debris falling near anything important.
That might actually be what happened with the patriots & how they got damaged, slightly. If they were really hit by a Kinzhal I assume at least one would be destroyed. I believe the Patriots do a great job and coicidentally right before it happened i saw that simulation already where irisT & Patriot had some actual success intercepting. IrisT not yet perhaps but kraine will get the SLM, medium range with a better radar so who knows IrisT can intercept too, these systems might be linked too and get to share targets. For a while I hoped US would deploy THAAD with it for an IAD. It's worth it. Now a bunch of those are standing like in Korea or Guam doing nothing..
@@5AndysaliveThey were for a while, however after one of the launchers was damaged by missile debris I believe they went back to using the two hit method. The damage was repaired in a few hours but still Way too close for comfort.
You're correct that it's 2 birds per targetx but PAC-3 always targets the warhead itself. The second bird is simply for added confidence that the target is intercepted.
If the Kinzhals were launched 100 miles back, would that allow a better fire control solution for the Patriots? It looked like they didn't have time to get into ideal angle of attack.
Distance launched doesn't really matter if you don't have an early warning system tied into the ECS, what matters most is the detection range. Once the system gets BRASH on the track it'll formulate the fire solution and get missiles on it. CH was right in saying it doesn't really matter the speed of the target, just as long as the patriot gets to the right spot at the right time.
Yes, but detection range of the system is 150+ km. Earlier detection and launch could make a difference. Perhaps more time to launch additional missiles?
@M M that's why we in the US Patriot use link 16 and early warning satellites for max heads up. Ukraine has had time to develop that yet, or just hasn't found the justification to buy some of those systems
re: glowing stuff from the hypersonic velocities, search the youtube for the test launch of the ABM Sprint missile - it was doing mach 10 in 10 seconds, and literally glowing white in the sky, while at it. Nuts.
Given the 91' patriot could track and intercept scuds why would the current version not be able to intercept the Kinzhal given it is basically an air launched Iskander. It follows a ballistic path so assuming computing power and time to intercept why would it not be able to intercept?
Cause a human operator sitting there all day doing nothing suddenly gets somthing on the radar, it takes time to classify it, then track and then fire a missile, depending on the situation the operator may even need clearance to fire which takes more time
Well, Kinzhal isn't that great, but if it could maneuver like they claim, it would be pretty hard to intercept. There are ballistic reentry vehicles that can maneuver though, so none of this seems like new threats to me as a layman.
It would be interested to know the official US interception statistics from '91. As I recall a lot (dozens) of Iraqi SCUDs penetrated AD zones in both Saudi and Israel. And you had dedicated US fighter squads patrolling the sky 24/7, with modified radars acting as SCUD pickets.
If I'm not mistaken, that was the AN MPQ53 radar with a single TWT, and we now have the AN MPQ 65 dual TWT radar now, with the LTAMDS getting close to fielding.
@@leonleeoff2216 What is with this “Ruzzian” BS? I am actually disgusted and ashamed that we are associating them with Nazis. People forget history so easily these days, it’s depressing. Do you even know the definition of what a Nazi is?
@@leonleeoff2216 Any second now and they're totally gonna whip out their Ultra Super Duper Missile™ they've been hiding inside pootin's butthole this whole time and then the western nato ukronazis will truly be sorry
there are schematics available online of the khinzal internal structure, what looked to be the concrete penetrating bomb is actually the warhead the khinzal is basically little more than the delivery vehicle for the warhead and is believed to be almost identical to the Iskander ballistic missile
@@kermittoad Yep, one of the people that Russia Today uses as a source confirmed that that Betab-500 looking thing was the same warhead design used by both the khinsal and the Iskander missiles. It's a fairly common russian practice of using the same component in multiple applications
@@flashgordon6670 u are good in following wat u feel and creating imaginations which makes your heart happy and relieved.😀😀, Russia lost all its so calles kinzhal and its now imprisoning the scientists.😀
They got charged for treason because the missles don't work?! I've got a bridge to sell prime New York city location. Let me know if you're interested 50% off limited time.
Hey, cap. Do you know that every Kinzhal has six decoys in it? You can see where they are located if you look at the back of the missile. We should keep that in mind. But even 3d models in DCS do not have them.
It’s pretty important to note that it is unlikely they would fire so many missiles of which they have so little of at a single target so the patriot would probably have to intercept to at most at a time
For modders there seems to be a ‘hard’ ceiling, where the missile either won’t fly, or if it does it goes sub orbital 😂 if I remember from previous explanations. Of course a modded will know more 🧐😂
ED completely locked modders out of most important game functions and encrypted the files so we can't even just substitute our own versions. Here are some of the biggest issues : Very low tickrate + control systems don't (and core-game can't) properly compensate for the variable sample time steps (e.g. even the z-transform of an LTI system will show how much variation in closed loop response different dt values can cause if you just use a constant numerical gain without compensation.) Ancient one-dimentional control loops that still use things like PID controllers and Root locus design. This, plus the lack of path planning and optimisation blocks handing off commands to a properly designed autopilot, results in missiles not even considering altitude, terrain, nor the target type and (if mobile) its recent trajectory, etc. The *ONLY* dimension that *ALL* DCS missile control systems use is the angle between the missile's flight vector and the LOS to the target. More specifically, the missile is commanded to minimize the time derivative of that angle (called LOS rate) by nothing more than a glorified PID controller. The only difference between this and the IRL missile control used on the very first heat-seeking missiles (pre-Vietnam), is that the proportionality constant has a few (usually around 4-5) different values that it can take depending on the slant range to target. *THAT'S ALL!* TL;DR: The most advanced active radar-guided missiles act almost identically to old rear-quarter heatseekers, except that they are *required* to warn their targets (give a totally made-up RWR warning) at a *hardcoded* 10nm distance, just so that human players and the braindead AI have an almost 100% godlike chance of "dodging" (with a simple split-S) and don't have to experience the frustration of realistic missile terminal behavior. Even with 90's technology, the enemy only gets a warning if the missile needs to activate its own radar, and if the launching platform was able to maintain lock the whole time, this only happens in the last few 100's of milliseconds before impact. No, in DCS these missiles will run straight into the ground, don't make any use of the trackfile that their launching platform has built up (other than to set a GOTO once in a while) and they don't calculate the most efficient route to target in 3D-space (thus forcing them to artificially loft and come back down hurts their Pk, even though they have much more endgame energy, because their LOS angle gets larger and they are no longer in the same horizontal plane as the target, which is all that their simple control system can cope with). Therefore missiles are artificially "forced" to loft by hardcoding overrides to the default 1D control system, and since modders are locked out of all of these core functionality, we can't (legally) fix it or even just substitute our own proper control logic to fix things. However, the steep descending trajectory then causes them to loose lock or simply breaks their guidance code such that they either pull max G *away* from the target or just go into space.
To exhaust the entire ammunition load of the battery, one 9-S-7760 missile of the "Dagger" complex and six 9B899 decoys fired by it were enough, which PATRIOT "successfully" intercepted, missing a real missile. And if some kind of subsonic cruise missiles and UAVs were used there, then a maximum of a few pieces and they flew up after the radar was disabled and the ammunition load was used up.
Love your show, especially the recent Patriot vids. I’m intrigued by what happened in Kyiv a few days ago; I’m sure you’ve seen the video circulating on the internet. At about 00:14 Patriot missiles start launching: about 30 go up from two or possibly three launchers. At 02:14 there’s a huge explosion just left of the right (eastward?) launcher. What happened? Could you guys Analyse or even perhaps game it? Keep up the great work.
But in general-yes. I believe that’s the default way of engaging a target (you either have another shot if you miss or you can hit the warhead section one more time to make sure it is completely destroyed and not just damaged)
@Max there isn't really a "default" setting, you have to posture your system and configure the shot doctrine in order to use the system for an engagement, None of which is unclassified
My understanding (completely unconfirmed) is that they were shooting at the patriot system itself, thus the incoming stayed in the same piece of sky, providing a very easy targeting solution. Don't recall where I heard that, but it would make sense.
Possibly Habitual Line-Crosser. He's a patriot system operator IRL and made a lot of videos about the subject. Been blowing up lately with his meme videos
given that shrapnel/debris hit one of the launchers, almost certainly had to be the system itself, or they were aiming for a children's hospital and missed which is more typical of Russia
@@override367 actually the patriot was destroyed an if you wanna talk about hospitals being targeted ..look up patrick lancaster go back 9 years an see who was shelling who for almost an entire decade..also ukrainian neo nazis were using civilian buildings including hospitals ..hear what the people on the ground say before you just shoot out fairytales ..an you wanna talk about war crimes look at the 600,000+ childfren killed by the US an NATO in the middle east , a father an his 9 year old son gunned down by an american apache with actual footage an is just 1 reason they have Julian assange locked up in a super max prison in the UK ..over 1000 syrian cilvilians bull dozed into concrete to hide those bodies an lets talk about the well over 1 million civilians killed over there ..swerar some of you are just arrogant an ignorant when it comes to the war crimes the US get away with but whiune an cry when someone else does it hypocrites
Great video, you mentioned in it in a real attack the missiles might come from several ways at once, rather down one bearing, have you considered doing the same sort of test but with multiple missiles on different attack vectors?
It's reported that the big attack on Kyiv did just that. Multiple directions, a swarm of missiles, all within 2 minutes. Really an impressive display of coordination on AFR's part.
So it turns out the damaged mim 104 was only minor damage that was caused by falling fragments of a kh 47m2 that was shattered, with the launcher still operating on emergency power. Damage was less the 5,000 dollars and a hour of repairs, that comes from people that actually worked on it. Also we have evidence of 7 not one 1 kh 47m2 has been shot down, the betab 500 bomb is the warhead of the kh 47 killjoy as confirmed from crashed mig 31s carrying them. The final impact speed that was recorded on the killjoy before intercept by pac 3 was mach 3.5. We know this as the radars Ukraine is using is from a new battery not a old one, and when it saw the killjoy it feed the ballistic characteristics back.
@@alukret the body to the missile was spread out over a half kilometer in the photos, but you can still see the distinctive rocket motor and half the central body
@@92HazelMocha Able to stop and 100% probability of kill are very different. Just because it can hit the target, doesn't mean that one [or more] couldn't slip through the network.
@@kanagawakenji7 Very true, but it's important to not overstate capabilites. For example, Russia could also claim that Kinzhal can penetrate a Patriot's defended zone despite having several intercepted.
I never thought that I would be "lucky" to witness such a thing. But, I got to see the work of the "Patriots" IRL. It was exciting. I might even say "beautiful". But it's still damn scary.
Kinzhal terminal speed is about mach3. Certainly non mach6 or it would melt. Nothing can go at that speed in the troposphere without melting. The hypersonic speed can be reached only in the stratosphere due to the lower density of the air, and even then the surface reaches hundreds of degrees Celsius due to air’s attrition.
According to chatgpt with some assumptions: 108.2KN of force to push a rocket mach 3 at 15000 feet. That would have melted the all titanium SR-71. I'm sure you're right. I can't imagine the brakes aren't slammed on below 30k feet. Again with some ballpark assumptions chatgpt says 0.5 drag coefficient on a 500kg missile going mach 4.5 at 15000 feet would generate about 18.2M BTU/min and steel melts at a constant 850 BTU 1kg of steel can be melted. I'm not sure how fast the heat is dissipated but I would be worried it was at least be in the structural failure window and risk being torn apart. Any over mach 3 isn't going to be using regular steel or aluminum to be built.
@@ClericChris you would see them glowing white hot in the sky before impact if they were traveling anywhere near mach 6, big sonic boom, extremely different explosion and damage.. Idk it's weird there's no video of these multiple hypersonic missiles traveling at night, not saying they're not hypersonic but perhaps just not mach 6+
@@ClericChris Aovid ChatGPT lol, if it's mach 3.5 at 15000feet it's going to impact within seconds because it's in a parabolic arc. At that altitude M3.5 is roughly 2200kts, 15000 feet is roughly 3 miles up, which means it takes about 2 seconds for the object to impact the ground. It's not going to melt that fast.
Hey Cap thank you for the video. However, I was wondering if this was this before or after our recent discussion on the 5/16 attack? I guess I'm a little confused, as none of the quoted reports from CNN/Sandboxx along with the images/analysis from the Russian-speaking military expert per our discussion were mentioned. Anyhow, there are a couple things I noticed. The PAC 3 MSE are 16 per launcher, and it appears the launcher in the video used 12? The 16 per launcher is one of the primary reasons why there were nearly 30 missiles launched in the two-minutes of footage reportedly showing two Patriot launchers defending Kyiv, in addition to their acceleration and launch angle as shown in the footage. All reports indicate a Russian time-on-target attack from 3 directions (North, East, Southeast) invvoving six Kinzhal and approximately 9 Kaliber cruise misssiles launched from the Black Sea (if I recall correctly), plus an unknown number of suicide drones to effectively add as target saturation. All reports I've seen only have one Kinzhal making it to close enough to its target and subsequently damaging (not destroying) one component of the Patriot site, as Patriot is designed to have its components spread miles apart as needed (the launch batteries, command center, radars, etc. all have a large distance between them as defensive features, due to a difference in defensive concepts, with Russian units being closer together and able to pack-up and move within minutes of an attack alert). Also, Patriot automatically fires two missiles per incoming target by default to increase the default PK. If, during this DCS test, the Patriot battery doesn't even have time to detect and fire two missiles at each incoming Kinzhal, or the engagement doesn't last for more than ~20 seconds, this would be highly indicative of not matching up well with the video evidence we have available to-date which accompany the news reports. If the Patriot in DCS can't detect and fire on Kinzhal further than 40-miles, than I can only suggest attempting to artificially work around that (with a boost to radar variables or some other DCS trickery) to emulate real-world evidence rather than accept DCS limitations. If this video was an accurate depiction of the maximum engagement range of Patriot versus Kinzhal, then absolutely the Patriot would have failed many, many times by now, not even getting off the minimum number of launches (2x4) before the attack concludes. Concerning Kinzhal being used and shot down in general, Russia claims they used it, Ukraine and the US claim they've shot 5/6 down on one night alone (with additional missiles during other attacks) and I believe concensus has landed at absolutely they're being used and they are being defeated rather consistently by Patriot. I'm just trying to help, as always, but I know DCS limits everything.
The first it didn't happen group apparently mistook an internal part that looks a bit like a nose cone and then claimed the nose cone for the missile doesn't look like this.
The major difference between the simulations and what happened in the actual scenario is that the Patriot missile system was the target, not another building. When the Patriot is the target, it functions better due to easier calculations for it's missiles and thus has a higher pk ratio.
Really good video as always :) Yea it must be really hard to get the optimal spread of counter missiles. I would think the "Window of possible interception" is so small it may not even be able to fire more then one from the same launcher at the same Kinzhal. But there is no doubt having the "smarter" and faster firecontrol computer would make all the difference. And we can be sure that the data collected from the radars (from the recent attack) have already been uploaded back to home datacenters to create even better flight profiles of the Kinzhal missile, for future engagements. Even if a patriot system was lost, the data was worth the price.
It's impossible for the patriot to shoot down the kinzhal. Just physically impossible. The kinzhal is not just hypersonic. It's also highly maneuverable at all stages of flight. The patriot simply has no way of intercepting it.
Highly maneuverable at hypersonic speeds means a turn radius the size of Ohio. It's perfectly possible to intercept anything as long as it's coming to you. The attacker's speed works in your favor. Come on, this is DCS, you should understand closure rate.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD even a slight turn at those speeds is a whole new kind of problem to solve for a missile defence system. It is indeed best case scenario if the missile is coming straight towards you, but the kinzhal comes crookedly towards you.
@@myronplatte8354 The problem is, you kind of know where the targets are. So the ingress paths become obvious once the turn begins. Your opponent isn't aiming for an entire country. If you know the missile will arrive in Kiev, your computers are plotting the intercept as the curve is being drawn. Do you know what local linearization is? Basically at any point of a curve equation you can calculate an approximation to that curve that is a straight line. It's coming crooked? Doesn't matter, in a tight enough time scale that's just a straight line anyway and the missile can be directed to that predicted point, then the impact calculated with a finer tuning.
11:25 yes, you can see a meteorite glowing in the atmosphere in daylight. Had that happen a few years back randomly. Would be similar with hypersonic missiles
That's awesome! I love watching meteor showers and would love to see one during the day. The difference with kinzal is it's moving 1-2 km/s where meteors are moving 10s of km/s. The Chelyabinsk meteor was estimated moving around 30-40 km/s, IIRC.
Having both British carriers would be a bit redundant, as there are only 24 F-35s in British stocks which can fit in one ship. Though, it would improve the launch rate a little...
Space shuttles re-entering the atmosphere do leave trails (and they were engines off), so I suspect anything going hypersonic would too. ... however, that might be the ablative tiles burning away, I mean, that is what they're designed to do.
Launch these from far away so that kinzhal can get the velocity and reach Mach 9. Another thing about patriot is it's radar is pointed towards one direction like point defence not like Russian air defences doing area defence which means anything from other odd angles will not be intercepted
Thats why batteries are posed towards known threat areas. Also, the radar isnt stuck facing the direction of its trailer, its able to fully rotate 360 degrees.
Well they didn't get all of them. There's video of a hit, but Russia probably fired far more than they claim to and each missile has like have a dozen penetration aids.
this exercise was great. the funky thing about all this, we know this happened in real life, it's been confirmed that that patriot system did knock down the missiles. but I'm not 100% that we can replicate the exact conditions that allowed that to happen. do we even know if the patriot system is even designed to track and hit hypersonic missiles?
It’s not even a modern hypersonic missle. Its an air launched iskander that’s why it can reach out to 1500km but it’s just a ballistic missle at the end of the day. it’s basically a medium ballistic missle that is an air launched variant of a short range one.
Lmao, no it can't. Even your own air force defense came out and specifically said that they have never shot them down and that its not possible. Right after they said that the fascist put the squeeze on them and made them retract their statement.
@@kermittoadayyyyyy my dude 😂 also yes ROTNReaper who commented below is one of the homies we go way back so listen to him as well we often talk in depth on what is happening with the system.
It helps when you factor in U.S. intelligence and data link. . NATO has AWACs on deployment at all times just outside of the russian Border. It can detect and relay missile launches from Russia only a few seconds after they've been launched. That data is then transmitted to the Patriots, which have all the time in the world to gather a firing solution, and take out the threat at max range.
"Local" sites (i.e. ones where the launchers are wired directly to the ECS via fiber-optic cables) can have launchers as far as 1.2km away from the ECS. Thats, to put it lightly, a *very* big footprint
@@warsuitgaming8692 technically at that size footprint you could take it out with one missile, a good sized nuclear one. I am not an expert on the patriot system, but I think I have heard somewhere that they can be spread out even further. Of course they would not be wired in further out.
@@KNETTWERX I work with the system myself, and yes they can be much further out in remote site setups, up to a few dozen km between the furthest launchers and the ECS.
@@warsuitgaming8692 I am not the most knowledgeable on AA systems, other than identifying them. When I was in I was anti armor and know a lot about tanks, IFV’s, apc’s, and the weapons to destroy them. I do know a decent amount on ships as well. However AA systems I never spent too much time on other than identifying and destroy first to call in CAS.
Most reports I have is that the patriots fired all there missles, but the missles did hit their targets and blew up 2 of the 30 patriot sights, which is stated by the Ukrainian defense Minister
Allegedly, most ofthe missiles were not aimed at a target semi-close to the Patriot system as you guys simulated, but directly at it which would make the PK likely higher since the Patriot missiles wouldn't have to turn as much and just head straight at the missiles.
but the kinzhal is a cruise missile, that is why it is a big deal, hypersonic ballistic missiles have existed for a long long time, the thing that makes cruise missiles so much more deadly is taht they can turn causing the AA system to need to readjust
@@H88fayyad the kinzhal is not a cruise missile, rather, it is just a hypersonic ballistic missile that’s air launched, so yes, while it can maneuver, it does not have any where close to the same maneuverability that a cruise missile. It’s essentially a maverick on steroids in terms of speed
I think the author is not aware that the maximum target speed that the MIM104 missile is capable of intercepting is about Mach 5. If the target moves much faster, the interception effectiveness drops rapidly.
seems to me hitting a kinzal with a patrioit would be like going to the drag strip, standing at the finish line, and trying to hit a dragster going 300 MPH with a slingshot. if you are beside the track, it would be next to impossible. if you are standing in the middle of the track, very easy. and the closer to the middle of the track you are, so you don't get run over, the higher the likelyhood of a hit you have.
Doesn't a real life patriot fire two missiles for every incoming? From Wikipedia: "The system computer determines which of the battery's launchers have the highest probability of kill and selects them to fire. Two missiles are launched 4.2 seconds apart in a "ripple"." It didn't fire near enough missiles as 10:20 mark.
To get the plasma streak the speed needs to be above Mach 10. So possibly at one brief part of the lofting phase of the flight but there should be no plasma in the terminal phase. Hypersonic start at mach 5 when all boundary flow becomes turbulent. But there is a regime known as high hypersonic from mach 10 where these thermal effects are becoming the dominant consideration. The hypersonic glide vehicles will occupy this area for a lot more of the flight.
I'll comment here the same thing I commented last time you did this: Kinzhal cannot fly like a LASER straight at its target at hypersonic speed. It will have to take a high-altitude ballistic trajectory to achieve anything like Mach 6 at impact (I'm skeptical that it could ever achieve this kind of impact velocity.) That would give Patriot much more time to react, and using standard doctrine of two PAC-3 missiles per target, I would be confident in real life Patriot could fairly easily defend a single building like this (although it would be quite expensive.) I don't know much about Kinzhal navigation system, but it almost certainly is not using GPS or any optically-based navigation (if it is actually traveling through atmosphere at hypersonic speed, which I am skeptical of), which implies an inertial guidance system that may date back to the (?)1980s when the missile was developed... My point being that I have my doubts as to whether it could hit a building-sized target, irrespective of the Patriot site defending said target.
From my interpretation of the specs it can only get mach 6 in the extreme heights of the stratosphere and has to slow down or the plasma formed would melt it.
From what they said in the video the game engine seems to not be able to model that kind of flight path. So they're doing the best with what they've got.
Given that Patriot batteries shot down SIX Kinzhals in one night, I'm going to suggest that the expert you have in this video isn't really much of an expert at all.
@@rebelliousfew the max speed is the cruise speed though. At + mach3 it becomes very VERY hard to be inside the atmosphere. At around mach 5 your missiles begin to plasma and melt at 10km altitude. At mach 10 it melts VERY fast, so fast, its called disintegrating rather than melting. The video from the Kyiv is quite obviously not a Kinzhal strike. At least not a functioning one. There's no sonic boom, so sub mach1 and there's nothing visible flying in. Even at slow speed that doesn't make the nose red (white) hot, we'd see the exhaust of these missiles if they're not just falling. And if they're "just falling" they're not moving very fast near earths surface before striking. Not to mention there's like a 4 min cut AFTER the Patriot fires. Yet Russia says they did indeed fire Kinzhals. So why were they so slow?
@@slimlacy2 Are you dense? " THere wAs nO sOniC b00m " lmfao, do you not understand what a sonic boom is? It's not a constant, it only happens after a certain velocity has been reached. As for the materials melting, this is what the U.S struggles with in trying to copy Russia. They simply don't have the materials that Russia uses to keep their missiles intact at those velocities.
What could probably not be simulated was the warhead of the patriot. Normally it's a shrapnel warhead made to destroy aircraft so what could the effects of that be on the kinzhal?
If I'm not mistaken the PAC-3 is hit to kill, the PAC-2 is a directed frag warhead that selects the direction of the target in respect to the missile. Instead of launching a spherical cloud of shrapnel, it's more of a directed shotgun blast to increase damage against missiles
Yeah, even an official infographic from Raytheon demonstrating how the system works, what are its elements, etc. listed BOTH the PAC-2 GEM/T and the PAC-3 MSE as going “MACH 5+” (I tried to get that info to CurrentHill but I was unsuccessful so I hope that he at least notices your comment)
heck the interceptor could be going Mach 2 and still hit the Khinzal as long as the launcher is in front of the missile when it launches the interceptor. When you are the target, you're in front of the missile, funny that.
The arrests in Russia, of the inventors, plus the information given by both Russian and Ukrainian military, indicate that the missile bleeds huge amounts of velocity in later flight, creating no extra difficulty for the Patriot. Initial acceleration and peak velocity is, apparently, 'as advertised', but then things go pear shaped.
@@Bee87ify By Tatiana Gomozova and Lucy Papachristou MOSCOW (Reuters) - Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was aware of an open letter from Siberian scientists in defence of the men, but that the case was a matter for the security services. In the letter, published on Monday, colleagues of Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev protested their innocence and said the prosecutions threatened to inflict grave damage on Russian science. "We know each of them as a patriot and a decent person who is not capable of doing what the investigating authorities suspect them of," they said. President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia is the global leader in hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at speeds of up to Mach 10 (12,250 kph) to evade enemy air defences. On Tuesday, Ukraine said it had managed to destroy six of the weapons in a single night, although Russia disputed this. Notices of academic conferences stretching back over many years show the arrested scientists were frequent participants. In 2012, Maslov and Shiplyuk presented the results of an experiment on hypersonic missile design at a seminar in Tours, France. In 2016, all three were among the authors of a book chapter entitled "Hypersonic Short-Duration Facilities for Aerodynamic Research at ITAM, Russia". The open letter from their colleagues at ITAM - the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in Novosibirsk - said the materials the scientists had presented in international forums had been checked repeatedly to ensure they did not include restricted information. The cases showed that "any article or report can lead to accusations of high treason", the open letter said. "In this situation, we are not only afraid for the fate of our colleagues. We just do not understand how to continue to do our job." The letter also cited the case of Dmitry Kolker, another Siberian scientist who was arrested last year on suspicion of state treason and flown to Moscow despite suffering from advanced pancreatic cancer. Kolker, a laser specialist, died two days later. It said such cases were having a chilling effect on young Russian scientists. "Even now, the best students refuse to come to work with us, and our best young employees are leaving science. A number of research areas that are critically important to laying the fundamental groundwork for the aerospace technology of the future are simply closing because employees are afraid to engage in such research." Asked about the letter, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said: "We have indeed seen this appeal, but Russian special services are working on this. They are doing their job. These are very serious accusations." (Reporting by Tatiana Gomozova in Moscow and Lucy Papachristou in Gdansk; writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
Love the vid ...one problem I see here is you are playing an optimal scenario for patriots missiles most likely would not be heads on unless there striking sam site. love to see if the patriot battery would have to rotate to line up n fire if it can do better can it do that fast enough ? and what if the patriot site was at 90degs to the kinsal I doubt u could even get one hit in
You may be right, but let's assume that it's a high value target and the path of the Tu-22 is known, or predictable? You're probably right that it is too conveniently oriented, but it's possible they have the Tu-22 direction as a known variable before it launches.
A projectile moving at hypersonic speed would have to deal with shockwaves, heat and drag while in flight but also while maneuverings. US Doctrine says to fire 2 missiles vs the target. On a side note: is it possible for you guys to shoot the Kh-47 Khinzal (AS-24 Killjoy) at a further range like around 200 nm for a more realistic test and spread out the GBAD system a bit more. FYI: a PATRIOT battery is usually around 8 launchers.
Russia claims the KH-47M2 Kinzhal has a range of up to 2000km and a speed of Mach 10 - however, satellite tracking of both test and active operational launches suggest the real speed is around is around Mach 4, so at the lower end of hypersonic flight, further, the range is believed to be around 1200km at best, although the longest reported track is less than 800km. A missile at this speed is not as hard to intercept as you may think, many missle defence systems are able to intecept large artillery shells all the way up to aircraft - as long as the missile guidance has a good solution, the intercepting missile only need to be able to meet the incoming missile. As the SAM has a head that is a shrapnel charge, it only needs to be reasionably close for a small number of shrapnell fragments to impact the missle to do immense damage due to the kinetic energy of the impacts. The satellite tracks of those used in Ukraine were launched about 250km from the impact site - this would give plenty of time for a 3D image of the battle space from carious sensor systems to plot a probable projectile path and allow interception. Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it.
"Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it." What really killed the F-117 was a two-man outfit from Cambridge with a three suitcase (four if you count the laptop) in-the-field passive aircraft detection system (looking for moving holes in background radio clutter) - the company (was) disappeared overnight and all online presence of them deleted after the F-177A was brought down - they had to go further afield for customers after the MoD rejected them - and the rest is (not!) history. I hope the team ended up working for BAe rather than pushing up daisies! The widely spread account of this operation is a false story - still, it made the commander famous and wealthy. And the Serbs in the field did an amazing job of translating the co-ordinates into something their systems understood.
@@warsuitgaming8692 lol"damage' even the US was forced to admit it was "damaged" there is nk fkn way a missile hits your unit and you get the paint scratched, other sources report an entire battery wiped out including the radar since apparently the ukrainians were dumb enough to station them close to each other
Russia struggles hitting targets with subsonic cruise missiles. Hypersonic?.....….. yea-nooo. So tht Patriot might not be able to hit it, but it's because it can't calculate where it's going to be because the Russian missile doesn't even know where it's going to be.
Most probably the penetrating warheads of Iskander M and Kinzhal missiles were based on BETAB-500 concrete piercing bomb. Imagine you need a 500kg class penetrating warhead for your missile. And there is ongoing production of a well tested 500kg concrete penetrating bomb available. Why not use it ? Of course it would have to be adapted to be mounted in the missile, and those differences can be spotted in the pictures (different mounting points between this warhead and normal BETAB-500 bomb). What is also interesting in available pictures and videos of the warhead of first downed Kinzhal - there is clearly visible damage caused by a very powerfull kinetic impact to the warheads (hardened) nose and the rest of (not hardened) body. The hardened nose is cracked woth a hole pierced trough it, the body also shows signs of a powerfull impact from the front-side that deformed the whole shell. I don't think a free fall and landing on a grass covered field could result in such deformation, I believe this is effect of PAC-3 interceptor's kinetic impact against the warhead, with the dedicated "hard" elements of PAC-3's "lethality enhancer" hitting the tip of the warhead and other parts of the PAC-3 missile body impacting rest of the warhead's shell.
Same thoughts here but the only thing holding my assumption is how the hell is it so accurate that it hit the head/tip part of the kinzhal warhead? Is it by luck or the radar detects the thicker portion of kinzhal and aimed for that.
@@noir2559 PAC-3 is designed to aim for the part of the (target) missile where the warhead should be. And this is extremally impressive for me, considering the speeds of the collision. But there is also some luck involved as the PAC-3 uses a kind-of fragmentation warhead that is called "lethality enhancer". It's made from a dense material, and contains two rings of big heavy fragments and two thin layers of high explosive, one little thicker and second more thin. The HE is detonated few hundred feet before the PAC-3 is expected to hit the target, and those two layers of fragments are thrown outwards at two different speeds, to form a two concentric rings at the moment the PAC-3 hits the target. Even if the main body of the missile misses the warhead, there is high chance one of big heavy fragments hits it directly. The chance to hit the warhead is not 100% though, the missile may miss the intended targeting point too much or the warhead may be mounted in a different part of target body than the PAC-3 designers expected. This is one of the reasons that usually two PAC-3s are used against single ballistic target. If the first interceptor hits the target in ANY place and damages it, the force of the collision and the aerodynamic forces will cause the target missile to desintegrate in the air and the (intact) warhead will most likely break away and continue falling. Then the second PAC-3 have a chance to discriminate the warhead (that is falling ahead of the whole debris cloud) and hit it directly. I wonder if that specific warhead that is displayed in Kiev was hit once, or twice. For me it shows evidence of at least two powerfull blows, one from a hard object (one of fragments or the central part of "lethality enhancer"?) near the hardened tip, that cracked it and did the hole, and second blow by a larger "soft" object (PAC-3 body?) near the center and rear part of the shell that resulted in visible deformations. Both strikes were from the same direction only in different places so I think they are results of a single direct hit.
There is an Ukrainian video now where details of the Kinzhal warhead are described. It's not the same like BetAB-500, it has a similar design and looks very similar but Kinzhal warhead has thinner walls and contains more high explosive (88 liters cavity containing 150kg of HMX that is equivalent of 230kg TNT). The BetAB-500 warhead contains only 75-77kg of TORPEX ~= 115kg TNT in a more massive steel shell.
I know you want to show us what happens if the specs are at their maximum reported stats, but we are talking about russia here and specifically weapons that are not even replicated by the USA. Hypersonic weapons need to be able to locate their target and identify it. Sure the kinzhal very likely will travel for a lot of its trajactory at over mach 5. But it needs to slow down at the end for target identification. This cannot happen at mach 5. Since A: identification of target simply needs time. B: (Apoint you guys mentioned, but it needs to be mentioned and expressed for all to see) A plasma sheath occurs at this altitude and speed. These things are blackout of all sensor vision and communication. The vehicle is blind at this point. These blackouts happen at specific speeds depending on altitude. The higher the vehicle the faster it can be without this happening. But the speed i've heared and read about for the last phase of the trajactory seem to suggest around Mach 5. The kinzhal can therefore only fly at around Mach 4 at the point when it matters for the patriots to shoot them down. Also love what you guys are doing. Your channel has given me a far greater understanding of how Air combat works in the modern day and why technology is so important in this field. Keep up the great work:) Ohh btw they used the PAC 3 CRI not MSE version
PAC3 is estimated to be around 3M$ per missile, and Kinzal around 6M$. The cost of even a single kinzal getting through IRL is measured in human lives tho.
The design of a maneuvering hypersonic weapon designed to hit static targets isn't hard, it would rely on inertial guidance and perform pre-programmed maneuvers regardless of what plasma effects might have on them. The only contention is with active guidance but its generally acknowledged that the plasma buildup with hypersonic weapons can be overcome with various engineering solutions.
Sandbox did a video on this debate and he provides info that makes it appear that patriot did shoot it down. Remember, a lot of experts don’t classify kinzal as hypersonic missile, but a ballistic which patriots are capable of shooting down. ruclips.net/video/RsZLJ59qtaU/видео.html
Given the advances regarding Radio Frequency Sensor On-Chip (RFSoC) integration, and the push for Sensor Open Systems Architecture compliance across all military aerospace electronics designers, a generational leap in both radar and missile technology has been expected for some time. This event, and others less public, have made clear to several key industry leaders that this leap has definitely come. It's only going to become more interesting!
As an additional comment - you would see vapour trails from hypersonic aircraft or missiles in the lower atmosphere as their exhaust plume causes condensation of water onto fuel particals in the exhaust stream - the missiles will heat, they will likely get to about 200°C on the nose cone but not hot enough to cause a visible glow, even at night. Missles at this speed will, to the eye, appear like sound waves - they are travelling so fast that the missle will be ahead of the visible trail behind it so you would never, or rarfely, see the missle before impact. With regards the meteor entering the atmosphere - the trail you see is a combination of ionised atmospheric particles, ionised vaporised material from the object and chemicl reactions caused by the frictional heating of the whole object as it barrels into the atmosphere at anything from 20km/s (44,500mph) -120km/s (268,450mph) depending on its velocity and orbit in relation to Earth. The kinetic energy on impact is what does the damage if it survives to the ground - the material the object is made from determines how large it needs to be for it to impact the ground at crater forming velocities - so although slowed by the atmoshere, it still needs a speed in excess of 8km/s (17,800mph) to form an ejector type crater (these are up to 20 times the of the impacting object) as oppose to an inert impacting crater (not much wider that the impactor - similar to what a training bomb would make on the ground)
The graphics are odd because they show a PAC3-MSE. Same front end as a PAC3 but a revised (larger) motor and fins. The PAC2 has difficulties with missiles because it uses a fragmentation warhead. The plan being to get close to target and hit it with one or more fragments. Works well against soft targets like airplanes but not so well against missiles. For one, a good chunk of the missile is the empty motor case. Poke a hole in that and you might as well have missed. The PAC3 on the other hand was built for this. It flies out under aerodynamic control and when it gets close to the target, activates its radar and spins up. The spin so that the ACMs will be rotating into a desired position. Otherwise you risk expending all on one side and running out. Testing of the PAC3 has of course happened against both airbreathing and balistic missile targets. Does the Kllljoy have better or worse performance than a Juno? ruclips.net/video/4HvAuIi02AE/видео.html&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&source_ve_path=MzY4NDIsMjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo
Pootin only has like 39 Kinzhals left..will he save them for the F 16s.....nice simulation and thanks for dropping a you tube video from time to time....OHHH YURRRR!
Ukraine-Russia Series:
Eurofighter vs Su-57: ruclips.net/video/OnKuV6259ck/видео.html
MALD, Storm Shadow & AARGM-ER: ruclips.net/video/d6p0YY_VQZY/видео.html
Storm Shadow vs Russian SAMs: ruclips.net/video/5wJPbBAj0WM/видео.html
Iskander vs Various SAMS: ruclips.net/video/KxxahORODBA/видео.html
HIMARS vs Russian SHORADs: ruclips.net/video/DI6yIt0goPA/видео.html
Storm Shadow vs Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/UsHa9Fe29gI/видео.html
Rapid Dragon vs Black Sea Fleet: ruclips.net/video/rvUTl6xjxqY/видео.html
Ukraine With JDAM-ER: ruclips.net/video/deWnN1319Xw/видео.html
UK Typhoons vs Su-57: ruclips.net/video/OnKuV6259ck/видео.html
F-22 Raptors vs Russia President: ruclips.net/video/Fcmt2kdebvI/видео.html
Air Force One vs Russia: ruclips.net/video/IDVULTyzcEw/видео.html
AGM-179 JAGM vs 2S38 & T-90: ruclips.net/video/6-f8GJzxg5E/видео.html
SEAD & ATACMS vs Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/HJ0MgwXydyY/видео.html
IMP US Strike vs Black Sea Fleet: ruclips.net/video/xSUAiTVwI6o/видео.html
HIMARS ATACMS vs Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/uU_SPj0HQgo/видео.html
Sa-11 Buk Firing Sea Sparrow: ruclips.net/video/uBoryuBHfBQ/видео.html
US Strike vs Black Sea Fleet: ruclips.net/video/KMwYjJghQiA/видео.html
Rus SEAD vs Modernized Patriot: ruclips.net/video/FdoyfKgaONE/видео.html
Rus Bombers vs Modernized Patriot: ruclips.net/video/4Y961tLNE18/видео.html
JDAM vs S-400 Network: ruclips.net/video/wP4sfDG-01E/видео.html
Kinzhal vs Pac-3 & IRIS-T: ruclips.net/video/i0GzbajI0mU/видео.html
F16 or Gripen for Ukraine?: ruclips.net/video/Y-k71nfap4Q/видео.html
Mig-31 vs NATO Black Sea AWACS: ruclips.net/video/vFOzjW25ItI/видео.html
R-37M Long Range Shootdown: ruclips.net/video/-3LKGL4w9Q4/видео.html
Drone Swarm vs NATO Defense: ruclips.net/video/wDBOSd9qCDs/видео.html
Patrio PAC-3/IRIS-T vs Missiles: ruclips.net/video/N5Z81iW8YNY/видео.html
MANPAD/IRIS-T vs Russian Missiles: ruclips.net/video/N9R9GUVcTyk/видео.html
AGM-158C LRASM vs Sevastopol: ruclips.net/video/GDZoDRhIIRw/видео.html
A-10s Operating in S-400 Nets: ruclips.net/video/5BwFlesg42o/видео.html
Modernized Su-27 vs Su-35: ruclips.net/video/7llLDzeT2Bs/видео.html
Modernized F15/F16 vs Su-35: ruclips.net/video/-TozTHbAXVs/видео.html
Can Su-57 Defend Russia From F-22/35: ruclips.net/video/E-oC3NgxC94/видео.html
IMPROVED Stealth vs Russian Bombers: ruclips.net/video/IgwLW4YKvVU/видео.html
Ukraine Using Hellfire Missile?: ruclips.net/video/s_1YHDTmPPw/видео.html
US Harpoons vs Russian Navy: ruclips.net/video/Oiee83CWRcE/видео.html
Ukraine Using APKWS?: ruclips.net/video/FBxV9YuAfaw/видео.html
Ukraine US HARMs vs Russian S-400: ruclips.net/video/eSyEOXsjWo8/видео.html
Patriot/NASAMS vs Supersonic Missiles: ruclips.net/video/i1q7uDeinA4/видео.html
Fulcrum/Flanker vs Foxbat/Super Flanker: ruclips.net/video/BhXfxc94JAU/видео.html
NASAMS vs Russian Cruise Missiles: ruclips.net/video/pJI_b95jzpk/видео.html
Russian KH-47M2 vs Polish Air Force: ruclips.net/video/cnrVxqL5q9w/видео.html
Su-27 & Drone vs Snake Island: ruclips.net/video/T_oRoU2Ayfo/видео.html
Su-25s vs Russian Convoy At Kyiv: ruclips.net/video/ryV65bUJzrw/видео.html
NATO Eurofighters vs Crimean AWACS: ruclips.net/video/EiJ2dFRh95g/видео.html
Patriot, Gepard & Gripen vs KH-65: ruclips.net/video/ZhxdrNjig1g/видео.html
A-10s vs Russian Convoy At Kyiv: ruclips.net/video/B0tZoo0uLh4/видео.html
USN Tomahawk Strike Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/0vpi8xBygV8/видео.html
USAF Stealth Strike Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/IJbf9Bcxnw0/видео.html
Ukrainian Jets Strike Kerch Bridge: ruclips.net/video/I8FumuZReB4/видео.html
F-22 Raptors vs Russian Fighters: ruclips.net/video/ComRcmrwJWk/видео.html
Raptor/Eagle vs Super Flanker: ruclips.net/video/keqYmuSEo-8/видео.html
USAF Bombers vs Mariupol Defenses: ruclips.net/video/aCsboOG0QU4/видео.html
Ukraine Bombs Snake Island: ruclips.net/video/BX696MKdkb8/видео.html
Stealth Fighters vs Russian Bombers: ruclips.net/video/rym90jnQDsA/видео.html
Sinking Of Moskva #3: ruclips.net/video/NIjoyIieOzY/видео.html
Sinking Of Moskva #2: ruclips.net/video/snjfbj_EwW4/видео.html
Sinking Of Moskva #1: ruclips.net/video/Bxwh6MGLJNc/видео.html
Russia Nukes Britain: ruclips.net/video/rzk45RFQwA8/видео.html
Ukraine Uses Danish F-16s: ruclips.net/video/17Pikrp0QaY/видео.html
Ukraine Uses Polish Mig-29s: ruclips.net/video/zCi4tAIzuOU/видео.html
Russian-Britain Missile Attack: ruclips.net/video/zwIGfabvzHA/видео.html
Ghost Of Kyiv: ruclips.net/video/Yrct8V4n1-U/видео.html
Belgorod Raid: ruclips.net/video/mQykTxt6ftw/видео.html
Eurofighter/Fulcrum vs Super Flanker: ruclips.net/video/MPyIipEhgR0/видео.html
US Strike vs Odessa ruclips.net/video/KeiOHgzic6Y/видео.html
Russian Helo Rocket Lob: ruclips.net/video/118GgGnP_sM/видео.html
Russian Su-25 vs US Patriot SAM: ruclips.net/video/asp69ZD_tO0/видео.html
Understanding Russian SAMs: ruclips.net/video/R4xTxLNZXcw/видео.html
Ukrainian Jets Road Operations: ruclips.net/video/hBpzQhinPbw/видео.html
Russian 40 Mile Convoy: ruclips.net/video/Vr_-2FLblBk/видео.html
Flanker vs Super Flanker: ruclips.net/video/VOAuOFLJGk4/видео.html
They were using PAC-3 CRI. The Kh-47M2s were launched much further away than they were here too. In the second incident of multiple M2s being intercepted, at least 35 PAC-3 CRIs were launched.
Where did you get that data from?
@@ROTNReaper You can see PAC-3 boosters in Kyiv
@@Just_A_Random_Desk yep. The booster of the CRI, actually, which is a bit different from the MSE
@@cockatoo010 mse are almost double the range of the cost reduction initiative but you can fit 12 instead of 16, and those cost $4 million too!
I wonder what kind of radar Ukraine got? Probably the old one mq54!
@@ROTNReaper If I remember correctly from your mom
It’s a shame that the core game doesn’t allow for modification of how many interceptors are fired per a single incoming missile because the standard is to launch two PAC-3 at a single target-one simply hits the missile (hit-to-kill) and the second targets what’s left of the warhead section to minimize the risk of an explosives-packed chunk of debris falling near anything important.
possibly Ukraine has to be more conservative with them.
That might actually be what happened with the patriots & how they got damaged, slightly. If they were really hit by a Kinzhal I assume at least one would be destroyed. I believe the Patriots do a great job and coicidentally right before it happened i saw that simulation already where irisT & Patriot had some actual success intercepting. IrisT not yet perhaps but kraine will get the SLM, medium range with a better radar so who knows IrisT can intercept too, these systems might be linked too and get to share targets. For a while I hoped US would deploy THAAD with it for an IAD. It's worth it. Now a bunch of those are standing like in Korea or Guam doing nothing..
@@5AndysaliveThey were for a while, however after one of the launchers was damaged by missile debris I believe they went back to using the two hit method.
The damage was repaired in a few hours but still Way too close for comfort.
You're correct that it's 2 birds per targetx but PAC-3 always targets the warhead itself. The second bird is simply for added confidence that the target is intercepted.
If the Kinzhals were launched 100 miles back, would that allow a better fire control solution for the Patriots? It looked like they didn't have time to get into ideal angle of attack.
Yeah, I thought the same thing…
Distance launched doesn't really matter if you don't have an early warning system tied into the ECS, what matters most is the detection range. Once the system gets BRASH on the track it'll formulate the fire solution and get missiles on it. CH was right in saying it doesn't really matter the speed of the target, just as long as the patriot gets to the right spot at the right time.
Yes, but detection range of the system is 150+ km. Earlier detection and launch could make a difference. Perhaps more time to launch additional missiles?
We tried before but they refuse to engage the missiles outside of 40 miles.
@M M that's why we in the US Patriot use link 16 and early warning satellites for max heads up. Ukraine has had time to develop that yet, or just hasn't found the justification to buy some of those systems
re: glowing stuff from the hypersonic velocities, search the youtube for the test launch of the ABM Sprint missile - it was doing mach 10 in 10 seconds, and literally glowing white in the sky, while at it. Nuts.
Given the 91' patriot could track and intercept scuds why would the current version not be able to intercept the Kinzhal given it is basically an air launched Iskander. It follows a ballistic path so assuming computing power and time to intercept why would it not be able to intercept?
Cause a human operator sitting there all day doing nothing suddenly gets somthing on the radar, it takes time to classify it, then track and then fire a missile, depending on the situation the operator may even need clearance to fire which takes more time
Well, Kinzhal isn't that great, but if it could maneuver like they claim, it would be pretty hard to intercept. There are ballistic reentry vehicles that can maneuver though, so none of this seems like new threats to me as a layman.
@@Vsor It seems like the world forgot how advanced ballistic missiles and ICBMs from the 80’s were…
It would be interested to know the official US interception statistics from '91. As I recall a lot (dozens) of Iraqi SCUDs penetrated AD zones in both Saudi and Israel. And you had dedicated US fighter squads patrolling the sky 24/7, with modified radars acting as SCUD pickets.
If I'm not mistaken, that was the AN MPQ53 radar with a single TWT, and we now have the AN MPQ 65 dual TWT radar now, with the LTAMDS getting close to fielding.
I am here and ready for the angry tankieposting.
The ruzzians exaggerating their weapon systems...no wayyyy 😂
@@leonleeoff2216 What is with this “Ruzzian” BS? I am actually disgusted and ashamed that we are associating them with Nazis. People forget history so easily these days, it’s depressing. Do you even know the definition of what a Nazi is?
@@leonleeoff2216 Any second now and they're totally gonna whip out their Ultra Super Duper Missile™ they've been hiding inside pootin's butthole this whole time and then the western nato ukronazis will truly be sorry
Incoming!!!t😂😂😂😂.
They have spammed every video that talked about the incident.
@@leonleeoff2216 you probably also believe Ukrops still hold Bakhmut too lol.
there are schematics available online of the khinzal internal structure, what looked to be the concrete penetrating bomb is actually the warhead
the khinzal is basically little more than the delivery vehicle for the warhead and is believed to be almost identical to the Iskander ballistic missile
and the similar structure that looks like the betab-500 that was found on the crashed kinzhal in Russia
@@kermittoad Yep, one of the people that Russia Today uses as a source confirmed that that Betab-500 looking thing was the same warhead design used by both the khinsal and the Iskander missiles.
It's a fairly common russian practice of using the same component in multiple applications
@@pogo1140 The US also does the same with the JSOW using the BLU-111 from the mk-82 bomb.
@@bumponalog7164 No reason to keep redesigning the wheel
No, this is not the case, only the designers and the manufacturer know the internal structure of the rocket
So, on the first run, one of the Kinzhals missed & hit a different building? In fact in all three runs, a random building explodes.
Russian engineering. Sounds accurate.
@@flashgordon6670 Ah yes, the bio lab with the bio-engineered mosquitoes and the dirty bomb factory, of course!
Must've been an apartment, school, or hospital.
@@HAL_9001 Of course...the perfect explanation.
@@flashgordon6670 u are good in following wat u feel and creating imaginations which makes your heart happy and relieved.😀😀, Russia lost all its so calles kinzhal and its now imprisoning the scientists.😀
I’ll put it this way, the engineers at Raytheon haven’t been arrested and charged with treason 😅.
They got charged for treason because the missles don't work?!
I've got a bridge to sell prime New York city location. Let me know if you're interested 50% off limited time.
@@zartic4lifeWhat missiles don't work?
So how can you model capabilities when the targeting system and the way patriot actually works is classified?????
Meteor trails are partially because of difference in electric charge so its plasma that you are seeing.
Hey, cap. Do you know that every Kinzhal has six decoys in it? You can see where they are located if you look at the back of the missile. We should keep that in mind. But even 3d models in DCS do not have them.
I’m pretty sure DCS doesn’t have the capability to model any penetration aids so there isn’t much to do about those things in the sim.
@@MaxIsStrange1 but they already have some fake targets implementation in the sim...
@@iyhan1987 What do you mean?
@@MaxIsStrange1 he means TALD
@@MaxIsStrange1 yeap, Ian Pederson is right. I was talking about F-14B Tomcat: ADM-141 TALD implementation. Each Kinzhal has six of them onboard.
Remember, these PAC2 and PAC 3 systems are not deployed as single groups, they are normally deployed in 3 groups to triangle the area of protection.
Well, they're claiming ballistic jars of tomato can bring down drones.
It’s pretty important to note that it is unlikely they would fire so many missiles of which they have so little of at a single target so the patriot would probably have to intercept to at most at a time
based on what was reportedly in the air, it worked out 2-3 interceptors per target
Can either of you give more information around the altitude problem in DCS. It comes up a lot with talking about missiles. Just curious.
For modders there seems to be a ‘hard’ ceiling, where the missile either won’t fly, or if it does it goes sub orbital 😂 if I remember from previous explanations. Of course a modded will know more 🧐😂
ED completely locked modders out of most important game functions and encrypted the files so we can't even just substitute our own versions.
Here are some of the biggest issues :
Very low tickrate + control systems don't (and core-game can't) properly compensate for the variable sample time steps (e.g. even the z-transform of an LTI system will show how much variation in closed loop response different dt values can cause if you just use a constant numerical gain without compensation.)
Ancient one-dimentional control loops that still use things like PID controllers and Root locus design.
This, plus the lack of path planning and optimisation blocks handing off commands to a properly designed autopilot, results in missiles not even considering altitude, terrain, nor the target type and (if mobile) its recent trajectory, etc.
The *ONLY* dimension that *ALL* DCS missile control systems use is the angle between the missile's flight vector and the LOS to the target. More specifically, the missile is commanded to minimize the time derivative of that angle (called LOS rate) by nothing more than a glorified PID controller. The only difference between this and the IRL missile control used on the very first heat-seeking missiles (pre-Vietnam), is that the proportionality constant has a few (usually around 4-5) different values that it can take depending on the slant range to target. *THAT'S ALL!*
TL;DR: The most advanced active radar-guided missiles act almost identically to old rear-quarter heatseekers, except that they are *required* to warn their targets (give a totally made-up RWR warning) at a *hardcoded* 10nm distance, just so that human players and the braindead AI have an almost 100% godlike chance of "dodging" (with a simple split-S) and don't have to experience the frustration of realistic missile terminal behavior. Even with 90's technology, the enemy only gets a warning if the missile needs to activate its own radar, and if the launching platform was able to maintain lock the whole time, this only happens in the last few 100's of milliseconds before impact.
No, in DCS these missiles will run straight into the ground, don't make any use of the trackfile that their launching platform has built up (other than to set a GOTO once in a while) and they don't calculate the most efficient route to target in 3D-space (thus forcing them to artificially loft and come back down hurts their Pk, even though they have much more endgame energy, because their LOS angle gets larger and they are no longer in the same horizontal plane as the target, which is all that their simple control system can cope with).
Therefore missiles are artificially "forced" to loft by hardcoding overrides to the default 1D control system, and since modders are locked out of all of these core functionality, we can't (legally) fix it or even just substitute our own proper control logic to fix things. However, the steep descending trajectory then causes them to loose lock or simply breaks their guidance code such that they either pull max G *away* from the target or just go into space.
To exhaust the entire ammunition load of the battery, one 9-S-7760 missile of the "Dagger" complex and six 9B899 decoys fired by it were enough, which PATRIOT "successfully" intercepted, missing a real missile. And if some kind of subsonic cruise missiles and UAVs were used there, then a maximum of a few pieces and they flew up after the radar was disabled and the ammunition load was used up.
@@clenbuterol4989 wrong chat. Yer wasting yer breath!
@@clenbuterol4989 No, just *no*
Love your show, especially the recent Patriot vids. I’m intrigued by what happened in Kyiv a few days ago; I’m sure you’ve seen the video circulating on the internet. At about 00:14 Patriot missiles start launching: about 30 go up from two or possibly three launchers. At 02:14 there’s a huge explosion just left of the right (eastward?) launcher. What happened? Could you guys Analyse or even perhaps game it? Keep up the great work.
Isn't the Patriot system supposed to ripple fire two missiles pr target to increase pk?
Depends on the selected shot doctrine
But in general-yes. I believe that’s the default way of engaging a target (you either have another shot if you miss or you can hit the warhead section one more time to make sure it is completely destroyed and not just damaged)
@Max there isn't really a "default" setting, you have to posture your system and configure the shot doctrine in order to use the system for an engagement, None of which is unclassified
@@ROTNReaper True. I was going off of an example engagement described on Patriot’s Wikipedia page.
Oh lol yeah Wikipedia has a long of good and bad information
My understanding (completely unconfirmed) is that they were shooting at the patriot system itself, thus the incoming stayed in the same piece of sky, providing a very easy targeting solution.
Don't recall where I heard that, but it would make sense.
Possibly Habitual Line-Crosser. He's a patriot system operator IRL and made a lot of videos about the subject. Been blowing up lately with his meme videos
given that shrapnel/debris hit one of the launchers, almost certainly had to be the system itself, or they were aiming for a children's hospital and missed which is more typical of Russia
@@override367 ouch 🤣
@@override367 actually the patriot was destroyed an if you wanna talk about hospitals being targeted ..look up patrick lancaster go back 9 years an see who was shelling who for almost an entire decade..also ukrainian neo nazis were using civilian buildings including hospitals ..hear what the people on the ground say before you just shoot out fairytales ..an you wanna talk about war crimes look at the 600,000+ childfren killed by the US an NATO in the middle east , a father an his 9 year old son gunned down by an american apache with actual footage an is just 1 reason they have Julian assange locked up in a super max prison in the UK ..over 1000 syrian cilvilians bull dozed into concrete to hide those bodies an lets talk about the well over 1 million civilians killed over there ..swerar some of you are just arrogant an ignorant when it comes to the war crimes the US get away with but whiune an cry when someone else does it hypocrites
@@override367 don't be stupid.
Great video, you mentioned in it in a real attack the missiles might come from several ways at once, rather down one bearing, have you considered doing the same sort of test but with multiple missiles on different attack vectors?
It's reported that the big attack on Kyiv did just that. Multiple directions, a swarm of missiles, all within 2 minutes. Really an impressive display of coordination on AFR's part.
So it turns out the damaged mim 104 was only minor damage that was caused by falling fragments of a kh 47m2 that was shattered, with the launcher still operating on emergency power. Damage was less the 5,000 dollars and a hour of repairs, that comes from people that actually worked on it. Also we have evidence of 7 not one 1 kh 47m2 has been shot down, the betab 500 bomb is the warhead of the kh 47 killjoy as confirmed from crashed mig 31s carrying them. The final impact speed that was recorded on the killjoy before intercept by pac 3 was mach 3.5. We know this as the radars Ukraine is using is from a new battery not a old one, and when it saw the killjoy it feed the ballistic characteristics back.
Mig-31 crashed in occupied Crimea. How do you know what is using as a Kinzhal warhead?
@@alukret the body to the missile was spread out over a half kilometer in the photos, but you can still see the distinctive rocket motor and half the central body
Are you on Opium 😂
Nah You must be on Opium.
They also use control thrusters rather than fins because fins have to trade speed/ energy to maneuver.
As does any form of course correction device. Turns don’t come for free.
As a real world Patriot system operator, I can say surprisingly yes
There's video of one getting through.
@@92HazelMocha Able to stop and 100% probability of kill are very different. Just because it can hit the target, doesn't mean that one [or more] couldn't slip through the network.
@@92HazelMocha the video showed shrapnel from a downed missile hitting near the site
@@dowgy177 I definitely meant the video of the explosion at the site location.
@@kanagawakenji7 Very true, but it's important to not overstate capabilites. For example, Russia could also claim that Kinzhal can penetrate a Patriot's defended zone despite having several intercepted.
Did no one see the video showing the patriot battery shooting off 32 missiles in less than 2mins then get wacked?
Most of these people don’t actively look for this stuff.
Liar
they dont look for anything.
I never thought that I would be "lucky" to witness such a thing. But, I got to see the work of the "Patriots" IRL. It was exciting. I might even say "beautiful". But it's still damn scary.
From experience is it’s both cool asf and worry some
Lesson of this video. When hard to cope with reality, switch to movies and video games, it helps. 😂
Kinzhal terminal speed is about mach3. Certainly non mach6 or it would melt. Nothing can go at that speed in the troposphere without melting. The hypersonic speed can be reached only in the stratosphere due to the lower density of the air, and even then the surface reaches hundreds of degrees Celsius due to air’s attrition.
According to chatgpt with some assumptions: 108.2KN of force to push a rocket mach 3 at 15000 feet. That would have melted the all titanium SR-71. I'm sure you're right. I can't imagine the brakes aren't slammed on below 30k feet. Again with some ballpark assumptions chatgpt says 0.5 drag coefficient on a 500kg missile going mach 4.5 at 15000 feet would generate about 18.2M BTU/min and steel melts at a constant 850 BTU 1kg of steel can be melted. I'm not sure how fast the heat is dissipated but I would be worried it was at least be in the structural failure window and risk being torn apart. Any over mach 3 isn't going to be using regular steel or aluminum to be built.
@@ClericChris you would see them glowing white hot in the sky before impact if they were traveling anywhere near mach 6, big sonic boom, extremely different explosion and damage..
Idk it's weird there's no video of these multiple hypersonic missiles traveling at night, not saying they're not hypersonic but perhaps just not mach 6+
@@ClericChris Aovid ChatGPT lol, if it's mach 3.5 at 15000feet it's going to impact within seconds because it's in a parabolic arc. At that altitude M3.5 is roughly 2200kts, 15000 feet is roughly 3 miles up, which means it takes about 2 seconds for the object to impact the ground. It's not going to melt that fast.
the nose cone could be made from tungsten or some other highly heat resistant alloy, APFSDS rounds don't melt and they are hypersonic at sea level.
Even if the nose cone began to melt, it’s a single use missile, so melting nose cones become essentially a non issue
the Tu-22 is such a cool looking plane.
Do the kinzhal system have decoys?
In real life, yes, bit not in game.
Hey Cap thank you for the video.
However, I was wondering if this was this before or after our recent discussion on the 5/16 attack? I guess I'm a little confused, as none of the quoted reports from CNN/Sandboxx along with the images/analysis from the Russian-speaking military expert per our discussion were mentioned.
Anyhow, there are a couple things I noticed. The PAC 3 MSE are 16 per launcher, and it appears the launcher in the video used 12? The 16 per launcher is one of the primary reasons why there were nearly 30 missiles launched in the two-minutes of footage reportedly showing two Patriot launchers defending Kyiv, in addition to their acceleration and launch angle as shown in the footage. All reports indicate a Russian time-on-target attack from 3 directions (North, East, Southeast) invvoving six Kinzhal and approximately 9 Kaliber cruise misssiles launched from the Black Sea (if I recall correctly), plus an unknown number of suicide drones to effectively add as target saturation. All reports I've seen only have one Kinzhal making it to close enough to its target and subsequently damaging (not destroying) one component of the Patriot site, as Patriot is designed to have its components spread miles apart as needed (the launch batteries, command center, radars, etc. all have a large distance between them as defensive features, due to a difference in defensive concepts, with Russian units being closer together and able to pack-up and move within minutes of an attack alert).
Also, Patriot automatically fires two missiles per incoming target by default to increase the default PK. If, during this DCS test, the Patriot battery doesn't even have time to detect and fire two missiles at each incoming Kinzhal, or the engagement doesn't last for more than ~20 seconds, this would be highly indicative of not matching up well with the video evidence we have available to-date which accompany the news reports. If the Patriot in DCS can't detect and fire on Kinzhal further than 40-miles, than I can only suggest attempting to artificially work around that (with a boost to radar variables or some other DCS trickery) to emulate real-world evidence rather than accept DCS limitations. If this video was an accurate depiction of the maximum engagement range of Patriot versus Kinzhal, then absolutely the Patriot would have failed many, many times by now, not even getting off the minimum number of launches (2x4) before the attack concludes.
Concerning Kinzhal being used and shot down in general, Russia claims they used it, Ukraine and the US claim they've shot 5/6 down on one night alone (with additional missiles during other attacks) and I believe concensus has landed at absolutely they're being used and they are being defeated rather consistently by Patriot.
I'm just trying to help, as always, but I know DCS limits everything.
The damaged part of that Patriot unit was fixed within an hour of the damage being found
The first it didn't happen group apparently mistook an internal part that looks a bit like a nose cone and then claimed the nose cone for the missile doesn't look like this.
The major difference between the simulations and what happened in the actual scenario is that the Patriot missile system was the target, not another building. When the Patriot is the target, it functions better due to easier calculations for it's missiles and thus has a higher pk ratio.
and that is of course called rationalizing in order to back up yet another outrageous LIE coming from the Ukraine leaders LOL
Really good video as always :)
Yea it must be really hard to get the optimal spread of counter missiles.
I would think the "Window of possible interception" is so small it may not even be able to fire more then one from the same launcher at the same Kinzhal.
But there is no doubt having the "smarter" and faster firecontrol computer would make all the difference.
And we can be sure that the data collected from the radars (from the recent attack) have already been uploaded back to home datacenters to create even better flight profiles of the Kinzhal missile, for future engagements.
Even if a patriot system was lost, the data was worth the price.
It's impossible for the patriot to shoot down the kinzhal. Just physically impossible. The kinzhal is not just hypersonic. It's also highly maneuverable at all stages of flight. The patriot simply has no way of intercepting it.
Highly maneuverable at hypersonic speeds means a turn radius the size of Ohio.
It's perfectly possible to intercept anything as long as it's coming to you. The attacker's speed works in your favor. Come on, this is DCS, you should understand closure rate.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD even a slight turn at those speeds is a whole new kind of problem to solve for a missile defence system. It is indeed best case scenario if the missile is coming straight towards you, but the kinzhal comes crookedly towards you.
@@myronplatte8354 The problem is, you kind of know where the targets are. So the ingress paths become obvious once the turn begins. Your opponent isn't aiming for an entire country. If you know the missile will arrive in Kiev, your computers are plotting the intercept as the curve is being drawn.
Do you know what local linearization is? Basically at any point of a curve equation you can calculate an approximation to that curve that is a straight line. It's coming crooked? Doesn't matter, in a tight enough time scale that's just a straight line anyway and the missile can be directed to that predicted point, then the impact calculated with a finer tuning.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD The patriot system has the capability to do that kid of calculation that quickly?
11:25 yes, you can see a meteorite glowing in the atmosphere in daylight. Had that happen a few years back randomly. Would be similar with hypersonic missiles
That's awesome! I love watching meteor showers and would love to see one during the day. The difference with kinzal is it's moving 1-2 km/s where meteors are moving 10s of km/s. The Chelyabinsk meteor was estimated moving around 30-40 km/s, IIRC.
Could you make a US vs Britain scenario using both British carriers plus good escort against an American carrier strike group?
Having both British carriers would be a bit redundant, as there are only 24 F-35s in British stocks which can fit in one ship. Though, it would improve the launch rate a little...
Wouldn’t the Backfire itself get shot down at that kind of range?
Greetings from Sweden!
You guys rock!
Space shuttles re-entering the atmosphere do leave trails (and they were engines off), so I suspect anything going hypersonic would too.
... however, that might be the ablative tiles burning away, I mean, that is what they're designed to do.
STS did not use ablative shielding.
Space Shuttles re-enter at something like Mach 22-23. Interestingly, Scott Manley recently made a video about the fastest shuttle re-entry.
Launch these from far away so that kinzhal can get the velocity and reach Mach 9. Another thing about patriot is it's radar is pointed towards one direction like point defence not like Russian air defences doing area defence which means anything from other odd angles will not be intercepted
Thats why batteries are posed towards known threat areas. Also, the radar isnt stuck facing the direction of its trailer, its able to fully rotate 360 degrees.
They just don't accelerate fast enough.
Now it we assume impact from the hypersonic missiles is closer to 3.5-4.5 mach, I bet PAC-3 missiles hit them 100% of the time.
Well they didn't get all of them. There's video of a hit, but Russia probably fired far more than they claim to and each missile has like have a dozen penetration aids.
In theory they could get 100% Pk but with humans as operators 100% Pk is impossible, same with russian S-400 just patriot crews are far better
@@gibbo_303 Lol I know, I’m talking about in the game.
@@92HazelMocha I’m speaking about in the game… in reality both the hypersonic and Patriot systems are most likely better than portrayed in the game.
@@BenHenkel_wx Call me a cynic, but I think they're probably both worse lol. Mainly because of my terrible experience with Javelins.
Cap, it was also claimed that six more Kinzhals were shot down a couple of days later after that first claimed Kinzhal shooting down.
The ukrainians always shoot down 200 out of 20 fired Russian missiles what a comedy show
this exercise was great. the funky thing about all this, we know this happened in real life, it's been confirmed that that patriot system did knock down the missiles. but I'm not 100% that we can replicate the exact conditions that allowed that to happen. do we even know if the patriot system is even designed to track and hit hypersonic missiles?
Patriot PAC3 was designed to do exactly this.
It’s not even a modern hypersonic missle. Its an air launched iskander that’s why it can reach out to 1500km but it’s just a ballistic missle at the end of the day. it’s basically a medium ballistic missle that is an air launched variant of a short range one.
Lmfao where has it been "confirmed"? The Ukrainians themselves denied it when those fake images were first circling. You clowns are something else.
Greetings from Kyiv) Yes, it can 😊
Lmao, no it can't. Even your own air force defense came out and specifically said that they have never shot them down and that its not possible. Right after they said that the fascist put the squeeze on them and made them retract their statement.
@alexventrov6826 kiev said it cant even Intercept Kh22 which fly at mach 2,, 😂😂 let alone mach 10
Why didn't rhe Patriot battery engage the Backfire?
It hasn't shot down a Kinzhal, it has shot down over 6 Kinzhals.
At once. Along with other missiles mixed in.
i'll believe anything habitual line crosser says(if you know the guy idk), so they definitely did shoot down those kinzhals.
I work with habitual linecrosser, I'll direct him to this comment
@@kermittoadayyyyyy my dude 😂 also yes ROTNReaper who commented below is one of the homies we go way back so listen to him as well we often talk in depth on what is happening with the system.
Russia Luanched 2 lol
It helps when you factor in U.S. intelligence and data link. .
NATO has AWACs on deployment at all times just outside of the russian Border. It can detect and relay missile launches from Russia only a few seconds after they've been launched.
That data is then transmitted to the Patriots, which have all the time in the world to gather a firing solution, and take out the threat at max range.
Did they have those AWACS when Sadam was launching Scuds?
@@limanac111Radar technology in Sadam's time was massively inferior to today's.
Not sure what the point of that question in.
Great point Cap regarding how a Hypersonic missle would be viewed!
In what world are these being fired from 45mi away?
The launchers would be much more dispersed over a wide area, which could have an effect on the effectiveness in real life.
"Local" sites (i.e. ones where the launchers are wired directly to the ECS via fiber-optic cables) can have launchers as far as 1.2km away from the ECS. Thats, to put it lightly, a *very* big footprint
@@warsuitgaming8692 technically at that size footprint you could take it out with one missile, a good sized nuclear one. I am not an expert on the patriot system, but I think I have heard somewhere that they can be spread out even further. Of course they would not be wired in further out.
@@KNETTWERX I work with the system myself, and yes they can be much further out in remote site setups, up to a few dozen km between the furthest launchers and the ECS.
@@warsuitgaming8692 I am not the most knowledgeable on AA systems, other than identifying them. When I was in I was anti armor and know a lot about tanks, IFV’s, apc’s, and the weapons to destroy them. I do know a decent amount on ships as well. However AA systems I never spent too much time on other than identifying and destroy first to call in CAS.
Most reports I have is that the patriots fired all there missles, but the missles did hit their targets and blew up 2 of the 30 patriot sights, which is stated by the Ukrainian defense Minister
Allegedly, most ofthe missiles were not aimed at a target semi-close to the Patriot system as you guys simulated, but directly at it which would make the PK likely higher since the Patriot missiles wouldn't have to turn as much and just head straight at the missiles.
but the kinzhal is a cruise missile, that is why it is a big deal, hypersonic ballistic missiles have existed for a long long time, the thing that makes cruise missiles so much more deadly is taht they can turn causing the AA system to need to readjust
@@H88fayyad the kinzhal is not a cruise missile, rather, it is just a hypersonic ballistic missile that’s air launched, so yes, while it can maneuver, it does not have any where close to the same maneuverability that a cruise missile. It’s essentially a maverick on steroids in terms of speed
@@dragonbladem6899 it being able to maneuver no matter how much, means that its trajectory is not ballistic...
I think the author is not aware that the maximum target speed that the MIM104 missile is capable of intercepting is about Mach 5. If the target moves much faster, the interception effectiveness drops rapidly.
speaking of the Space Shuttle, a hypersonic missile would probably look like a reentry of a Shuttle than a meteor….
seems to me hitting a kinzal with a patrioit would be like going to the drag strip, standing at the finish line, and trying to hit a dragster going 300 MPH with a slingshot. if you are beside the track, it would be next to impossible. if you are standing in the middle of the track, very easy. and the closer to the middle of the track you are, so you don't get run over, the higher the likelyhood of a hit you have.
Exactly. That’s why the Patriot has the highest probability of kill when it itself is the target.
works even better when you are on the track with the missile headed directly at you
Thanks CH! Nicely done Cap :)
You forgot about decoys. When in the terminal section one target turns into a set, then one Kinzhal is enough.
what do you mean turns into a set? the Rocket its self fires off multiple decoys?
@@voidwalker9223 Yes six decoys, seeing as patriot tentatively hit 5 of 6 though it still take quite a few to overwhelm a patriot site.
@Ian Pederson if rocket could launches decoys it looks like a throwing volleyballs from Ferrari
Doesn't a real life patriot fire two missiles for every incoming? From Wikipedia: "The system computer determines which of the battery's launchers have the highest probability of kill and selects them to fire. Two missiles are launched 4.2 seconds apart in a "ripple"." It didn't fire near enough missiles as 10:20 mark.
GR, thanks for the theory crafting regarding the anti aircraft / anti missle / anti hypersonic tests involving various DCS modelled systems.
To get the plasma streak the speed needs to be above Mach 10. So possibly at one brief part of the lofting phase of the flight but there should be no plasma in the terminal phase. Hypersonic start at mach 5 when all boundary flow becomes turbulent. But there is a regime known as high hypersonic from mach 10 where these thermal effects are becoming the dominant consideration. The hypersonic glide vehicles will occupy this area for a lot more of the flight.
I'll comment here the same thing I commented last time you did this: Kinzhal cannot fly like a LASER straight at its target at hypersonic speed. It will have to take a high-altitude ballistic trajectory to achieve anything like Mach 6 at impact (I'm skeptical that it could ever achieve this kind of impact velocity.) That would give Patriot much more time to react, and using standard doctrine of two PAC-3 missiles per target, I would be confident in real life Patriot could fairly easily defend a single building like this (although it would be quite expensive.)
I don't know much about Kinzhal navigation system, but it almost certainly is not using GPS or any optically-based navigation (if it is actually traveling through atmosphere at hypersonic speed, which I am skeptical of), which implies an inertial guidance system that may date back to the (?)1980s when the missile was developed... My point being that I have my doubts as to whether it could hit a building-sized target, irrespective of the Patriot site defending said target.
From my interpretation of the specs it can only get mach 6 in the extreme heights of the stratosphere and has to slow down or the plasma formed would melt it.
I think Ukrainians launch more than 2, at least 3.
From what they said in the video the game engine seems to not be able to model that kind of flight path. So they're doing the best with what they've got.
Given that Patriot batteries shot down SIX Kinzhals in one night, I'm going to suggest that the expert you have in this video isn't really much of an expert at all.
They didn’t shoot down anything.
So 75% PK assuming max advertised speed of the incoming missiles. Wondering how realistic is it to assume that speed?
It’s absolutely realistic.
@@rebelliousfew the max speed is the cruise speed though. At + mach3 it becomes very VERY hard to be inside the atmosphere. At around mach 5 your missiles begin to plasma and melt at 10km altitude. At mach 10 it melts VERY fast, so fast, its called disintegrating rather than melting.
The video from the Kyiv is quite obviously not a Kinzhal strike. At least not a functioning one.
There's no sonic boom, so sub mach1 and there's nothing visible flying in. Even at slow speed that doesn't make the nose red (white) hot, we'd see the exhaust of these missiles if they're not just falling. And if they're "just falling" they're not moving very fast near earths surface before striking.
Not to mention there's like a 4 min cut AFTER the Patriot fires. Yet Russia says they did indeed fire Kinzhals. So why were they so slow?
@@slimlacy2 Are you dense? " THere wAs nO sOniC b00m " lmfao, do you not understand what a sonic boom is? It's not a constant, it only happens after a certain velocity has been reached.
As for the materials melting, this is what the U.S struggles with in trying to copy Russia. They simply don't have the materials that Russia uses to keep their missiles intact at those velocities.
What could probably not be simulated was the warhead of the patriot. Normally it's a shrapnel warhead made to destroy aircraft so what could the effects of that be on the kinzhal?
If I'm not mistaken the PAC-3 is hit to kill, the PAC-2 is a directed frag warhead that selects the direction of the target in respect to the missile. Instead of launching a spherical cloud of shrapnel, it's more of a directed shotgun blast to increase damage against missiles
"i can only believe what i see in the press" you unfortunate man
Probably only watches BBC
Where can we get the mod for the Kinzhal on the TU-22M3 ? Thank you :)
Keep in mind the Pac 3 is listed as mach 4 for its unclassified number but even the Taiwan clone does mach 7.
Yeah, even an official infographic from Raytheon demonstrating how the system works, what are its elements, etc. listed BOTH the PAC-2 GEM/T and the PAC-3 MSE as going “MACH 5+”
(I tried to get that info to CurrentHill but I was unsuccessful so I hope that he at least notices your comment)
heck the interceptor could be going Mach 2 and still hit the Khinzal as long as the launcher is in front of the missile when it launches the interceptor.
When you are the target, you're in front of the missile, funny that.
@@pogo1140 Very true but it seems like the speed surely helps with reaction time
What if the units were spread out??
Can any fighter carry 4 kinshal missiles? I fucking doubt it!!
Good thing then that Tu22 isn't a fighter
The Tu-22 is more of a tactical bomber.
I believe they can carry 6 but perhaps I'm thinking of the Tu-160 which can carry 8.
Mig-31 carries only one
The arrests in Russia, of the inventors, plus the information given by both Russian and Ukrainian military, indicate that the missile bleeds huge amounts of velocity in later flight, creating no extra difficulty for the Patriot. Initial acceleration and peak velocity is, apparently, 'as advertised', but then things go pear shaped.
It seems that you can only go so far while modifying an existing ballistic missile…
there were no arrests, who told you this, Ukraine?
@@Bee87ify Dmitry Peskov and the lawyers for the scientists
@@pogo1140 link to official source
@@Bee87ify By Tatiana Gomozova and Lucy Papachristou
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was aware of an open letter from Siberian scientists in defence of the men, but that the case was a matter for the security services.
In the letter, published on Monday, colleagues of Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev protested their innocence and said the prosecutions threatened to inflict grave damage on Russian science.
"We know each of them as a patriot and a decent person who is not capable of doing what the investigating authorities suspect them of," they said.
President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia is the global leader in hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at speeds of up to Mach 10 (12,250 kph) to evade enemy air defences. On Tuesday, Ukraine said it had managed to destroy six of the weapons in a single night, although Russia disputed this.
Notices of academic conferences stretching back over many years show the arrested scientists were frequent participants.
In 2012, Maslov and Shiplyuk presented the results of an experiment on hypersonic missile design at a seminar in Tours, France. In 2016, all three were among the authors of a book chapter entitled "Hypersonic Short-Duration Facilities for Aerodynamic Research at ITAM, Russia".
The open letter from their colleagues at ITAM - the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in Novosibirsk - said the materials the scientists had presented in international forums had been checked repeatedly to ensure they did not include restricted information.
The cases showed that "any article or report can lead to accusations of high treason", the open letter said.
"In this situation, we are not only afraid for the fate of our colleagues. We just do not understand how to continue to do our job."
The letter also cited the case of Dmitry Kolker, another Siberian scientist who was arrested last year on suspicion of state treason and flown to Moscow despite suffering from advanced pancreatic cancer. Kolker, a laser specialist, died two days later.
It said such cases were having a chilling effect on young Russian scientists.
"Even now, the best students refuse to come to work with us, and our best young employees are leaving science. A number of research areas that are critically important to laying the fundamental groundwork for the aerospace technology of the future are simply closing because employees are afraid to engage in such research."
Asked about the letter, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said: "We have indeed seen this appeal, but Russian special services are working on this. They are doing their job. These are very serious accusations."
(Reporting by Tatiana Gomozova in Moscow and Lucy Papachristou in Gdansk; writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
And with standart supersonic balistic missiles? Guess same result. Is there part where manuevering gives advantage for kindzal?
Cap, Fins aren't what they used to be...
Love the vid ...one problem I see here is you are playing an optimal scenario for patriots missiles most likely would not be heads on unless there striking sam site. love to see if the patriot battery would have to rotate to line up n fire if it can do better can it do that fast enough ? and what if the patriot site was at 90degs to the kinsal I doubt u could even get one hit in
You may be right, but let's assume that it's a high value target and the path of the Tu-22 is known, or predictable? You're probably right that it is too conveniently oriented, but it's possible they have the Tu-22 direction as a known variable before it launches.
Yes it can. Repeatedly
Lmao no it can't
The air pressure in front of the missile heats the air up so much the it changes state from a gas to plasma and it glows. tHAT IS MY UNDERSTANDING.
It's possible only if your system needs advertisement to not embarrasse even more.
Ukraine does not have PAC-3 MSE to the best of what we know, they have the older PAC-3 CRI.
take into account how likely a second volley is coming or 3rd or 4 th
A projectile moving at hypersonic speed would have to deal with shockwaves, heat and drag while in flight but also while maneuverings.
US Doctrine says to fire 2 missiles vs the target.
On a side note: is it possible for you guys to shoot the Kh-47 Khinzal (AS-24 Killjoy) at a further range like around 200 nm for a more realistic test and spread out the GBAD system a bit more. FYI: a PATRIOT battery is usually around 8 launchers.
Russia claims the KH-47M2 Kinzhal has a range of up to 2000km and a speed of Mach 10 - however, satellite tracking of both test and active operational launches suggest the real speed is around is around Mach 4, so at the lower end of hypersonic flight, further, the range is believed to be around 1200km at best, although the longest reported track is less than 800km.
A missile at this speed is not as hard to intercept as you may think, many missle defence systems are able to intecept large artillery shells all the way up to aircraft - as long as the missile guidance has a good solution, the intercepting missile only need to be able to meet the incoming missile. As the SAM has a head that is a shrapnel charge, it only needs to be reasionably close for a small number of shrapnell fragments to impact the missle to do immense damage due to the kinetic energy of the impacts.
The satellite tracks of those used in Ukraine were launched about 250km from the impact site - this would give plenty of time for a 3D image of the battle space from carious sensor systems to plot a probable projectile path and allow interception.
Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it.
"Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it."
What really killed the F-117 was a two-man outfit from Cambridge with a three suitcase (four if you count the laptop) in-the-field passive aircraft detection system (looking for moving holes in background radio clutter) - the company (was) disappeared overnight and all online presence of them deleted after the F-177A was brought down - they had to go further afield for customers after the MoD rejected them - and the rest is (not!) history. I hope the team ended up working for BAe rather than pushing up daisies! The widely spread account of this operation is a false story - still, it made the commander famous and wealthy. And the Serbs in the field did an amazing job of translating the co-ordinates into something their systems understood.
This why we need more research into laser based systems.
We can all see the difference between games and real life, in real life the patriot fired 32 missiles and then got smacked by a couple Kinzhals
Those Kinzhals sucked then since the entire unit was fully operational within an hour of the damage being noticed
@@warsuitgaming8692 lol"damage' even the US was forced to admit it was "damaged" there is nk fkn way a missile hits your unit and you get the paint scratched, other sources report an entire battery wiped out including the radar since apparently the ukrainians were dumb enough to station them close to each other
Russia struggles hitting targets with subsonic cruise missiles. Hypersonic?.....….. yea-nooo. So tht Patriot might not be able to hit it, but it's because it can't calculate where it's going to be because the Russian missile doesn't even know where it's going to be.
Patriots got destroyed in Ukraine. What are you talking about? You watch to much fake t.v media
Most probably the penetrating warheads of Iskander M and Kinzhal missiles were based on BETAB-500 concrete piercing bomb. Imagine you need a 500kg class penetrating warhead for your missile. And there is ongoing production of a well tested 500kg concrete penetrating bomb available. Why not use it ? Of course it would have to be adapted to be mounted in the missile, and those differences can be spotted in the pictures (different mounting points between this warhead and normal BETAB-500 bomb).
What is also interesting in available pictures and videos of the warhead of first downed Kinzhal - there is clearly visible damage caused by a very powerfull kinetic impact to the warheads (hardened) nose and the rest of (not hardened) body. The hardened nose is cracked woth a hole pierced trough it, the body also shows signs of a powerfull impact from the front-side that deformed the whole shell. I don't think a free fall and landing on a grass covered field could result in such deformation, I believe this is effect of PAC-3 interceptor's kinetic impact against the warhead, with the dedicated "hard" elements of PAC-3's "lethality enhancer" hitting the tip of the warhead and other parts of the PAC-3 missile body impacting rest of the warhead's shell.
Same thoughts here but the only thing holding my assumption is how the hell is it so accurate that it hit the head/tip part of the kinzhal warhead? Is it by luck or the radar detects the thicker portion of kinzhal and aimed for that.
@@noir2559 PAC-3 is designed to aim for the part of the (target) missile where the warhead should be. And this is extremally impressive for me, considering the speeds of the collision.
But there is also some luck involved as the PAC-3 uses a kind-of fragmentation warhead that is called "lethality enhancer". It's made from a dense material, and contains two rings of big heavy fragments and two thin layers of high explosive, one little thicker and second more thin. The HE is detonated few hundred feet before the PAC-3 is expected to hit the target, and those two layers of fragments are thrown outwards at two different speeds, to form a two concentric rings at the moment the PAC-3 hits the target. Even if the main body of the missile misses the warhead, there is high chance one of big heavy fragments hits it directly.
The chance to hit the warhead is not 100% though, the missile may miss the intended targeting point too much or the warhead may be mounted in a different part of target body than the PAC-3 designers expected. This is one of the reasons that usually two PAC-3s are used against single ballistic target. If the first interceptor hits the target in ANY place and damages it, the force of the collision and the aerodynamic forces will cause the target missile to desintegrate in the air and the (intact) warhead will most likely break away and continue falling. Then the second PAC-3 have a chance to discriminate the warhead (that is falling ahead of the whole debris cloud) and hit it directly.
I wonder if that specific warhead that is displayed in Kiev was hit once, or twice. For me it shows evidence of at least two powerfull blows, one from a hard object (one of fragments or the central part of "lethality enhancer"?) near the hardened tip, that cracked it and did the hole, and second blow by a larger "soft" object (PAC-3 body?) near the center and rear part of the shell that resulted in visible deformations. Both strikes were from the same direction only in different places so I think they are results of a single direct hit.
There is an Ukrainian video now where details of the Kinzhal warhead are described. It's not the same like BetAB-500, it has a similar design and looks very similar but Kinzhal warhead has thinner walls and contains more high explosive (88 liters cavity containing 150kg of HMX that is equivalent of 230kg TNT). The BetAB-500 warhead contains only 75-77kg of TORPEX ~= 115kg TNT in a more massive steel shell.
Good question. Hypersonic might look like a meteor?
I know you want to show us what happens if the specs are at their maximum reported stats, but we are talking about russia here and specifically weapons that are not even replicated by the USA.
Hypersonic weapons need to be able to locate their target and identify it. Sure the kinzhal very likely will travel for a lot of its trajactory at over mach 5. But it needs to slow down at the end for target identification. This cannot happen at mach 5. Since A: identification of target simply needs time. B: (Apoint you guys mentioned, but it needs to be mentioned and expressed for all to see) A plasma sheath occurs at this altitude and speed. These things are blackout of all sensor vision and communication. The vehicle is blind at this point. These blackouts happen at specific speeds depending on altitude. The higher the vehicle the faster it can be without this happening. But the speed i've heared and read about for the last phase of the trajactory seem to suggest around Mach 5. The kinzhal can therefore only fly at around Mach 4 at the point when it matters for the patriots to shoot them down.
Also love what you guys are doing. Your channel has given me a far greater understanding of how Air combat works in the modern day and why technology is so important in this field. Keep up the great work:)
Ohh btw they used the PAC 3 CRI not MSE version
How much does each pac3 and Kissinger thing cost?
PAC3 is estimated to be around 3M$ per missile, and Kinzal around 6M$. The cost of even a single kinzal getting through IRL is measured in human lives tho.
The design of a maneuvering hypersonic weapon designed to hit static targets isn't hard, it would rely on inertial guidance and perform pre-programmed maneuvers regardless of what plasma effects might have on them.
The only contention is with active guidance but its generally acknowledged that the plasma buildup with hypersonic weapons can be overcome with various engineering solutions.
To be fair, Russia combines Khinzal with many drones and Kalibr cruise missiles.
IRL it seems the Ukrainians know that a Kinzhal is on it's way long before it's launched.
yes, Ukrainians know about rocket launch when rockets are still on Russian territory
Sandbox did a video on this debate and he provides info that makes it appear that patriot did shoot it down. Remember, a lot of experts don’t classify kinzal as hypersonic missile, but a ballistic which patriots are capable of shooting down. ruclips.net/video/RsZLJ59qtaU/видео.html
It apparently shot down 6/6. But the debris from one of the missles hit a patriot launcher but it’s back and operating rn.
Sand box is a Ukraine asset that denied any scientific progress if it's Russia. it's not an independent source😂
Given the advances regarding Radio Frequency Sensor On-Chip (RFSoC) integration, and the push for Sensor Open Systems Architecture compliance across all military aerospace electronics designers, a generational leap in both radar and missile technology has been expected for some time. This event, and others less public, have made clear to several key industry leaders that this leap has definitely come. It's only going to become more interesting!
Same Patriot that it's failing in real time to deal with cheap drones 😂
As an additional comment - you would see vapour trails from hypersonic aircraft or missiles in the lower atmosphere as their exhaust plume causes condensation of water onto fuel particals in the exhaust stream - the missiles will heat, they will likely get to about 200°C on the nose cone but not hot enough to cause a visible glow, even at night. Missles at this speed will, to the eye, appear like sound waves - they are travelling so fast that the missle will be ahead of the visible trail behind it so you would never, or rarfely, see the missle before impact.
With regards the meteor entering the atmosphere - the trail you see is a combination of ionised atmospheric particles, ionised vaporised material from the object and chemicl reactions caused by the frictional heating of the whole object as it barrels into the atmosphere at anything from 20km/s (44,500mph) -120km/s (268,450mph) depending on its velocity and orbit in relation to Earth. The kinetic energy on impact is what does the damage if it survives to the ground - the material the object is made from determines how large it needs to be for it to impact the ground at crater forming velocities - so although slowed by the atmoshere, it still needs a speed in excess of 8km/s (17,800mph) to form an ejector type crater (these are up to 20 times the of the impacting object) as oppose to an inert impacting crater (not much wider that the impactor - similar to what a training bomb would make on the ground)
The graphics are odd because they show a PAC3-MSE. Same front end as a PAC3 but a revised (larger) motor and fins.
The PAC2 has difficulties with missiles because it uses a fragmentation warhead. The plan being to get close to target and hit it with one or more fragments. Works well against soft targets like airplanes but not so well against missiles. For one, a good chunk of the missile is the empty motor case. Poke a hole in that and you might as well have missed.
The PAC3 on the other hand was built for this. It flies out under aerodynamic control and when it gets close to the target, activates its radar and spins up. The spin so that the ACMs will be rotating into a desired position. Otherwise you risk expending all on one side and running out.
Testing of the PAC3 has of course happened against both airbreathing and balistic missile targets. Does the Kllljoy have better or worse performance than a Juno?
ruclips.net/video/4HvAuIi02AE/видео.html&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&source_ve_path=MzY4NDIsMjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo
Thank you for this.
Pootin only has like 39 Kinzhals left..will he save them for the F 16s.....nice simulation and thanks for dropping a you tube video from time to time....OHHH YURRRR!
Pft, yeah, keep watching your TV and believing everything it tells you. Sheep.
probably more like 4.
You know the airfield that houses the Vipers will likely be protected by Patriot, right?
@@rebelliousfew And you’re sure that you get a healthy news diet from diverse range of sources, even from those you disagree with?
Well I think they are building them at a rate of 2/month