Tony blew me away over 10 years ago, I saw his vision immediately and started telling people. I then started investing accordingly, told everyone. To this day not one person (only my wife trusted me) in my circle believes me. I'm going to be a multi millionaire, my wife and kids are set for life. Thanks Tony, it's all because of you 🎉
@@AlbatiQue ? I'm already invested, long time ago. Did you read my post? I've done my best to keep spreading the word but no-one wants to hear it. I'm now laughing all the way to financial freedom by 50 years of age. If Tesla does a 10x from here I'm in private jet territory (I would never do it, just making a point). By being open to paradigm shifts and doing heaps of independent research even a financial novice like me is crushing it.
@@EVsAreEasySometimes it's important to listen to what's going on in the world. Know I have almost only one suggestion, and unfortunately you can't buy it... That is training, some walking and running almost every day, a little bit of gymnastics and "weight" lifting. Then much vegetables for food, and you will increase your chances of having an enjoyable rest of your life.
I still find it hard to invest. Most solar companies are not doing too well. Most of them will disappear. Same for electric car companies. Competition is cruel. I would definitely avoid fossil fuel companies. This revolution will be good for consumers, not necessarily for the investors.
Viking do you know why your channel does not garnered million of views per video? This is because majority hate what you are saying. They know you are right and they just despise your view. I think you are brilliant and keep up the good work.
There won't be many people who live to see this "disruption" through to the end. All those that got the clot shot for example. Be careful what you wish for...
You are totally right Sam regarding Tony Seba's forward looking predictions. Long time fan of Tony's and believe he is going to be right once again. Thanks for doing this!
The key is distribution. For example, the Pacific DC Intertie (Path 65) sends high voltage between the Columbia River and Los Angeles, a distance of 1,142 miles. In the summer the Columbia River runs high and generates excess power that goes south to support air conditioning. In the winter LA extra capacity flows north to support heating. The systems complement each other.
For wind too...a study showed decades ago that wind power taken from a 1000 mile radius would be as reliable as a coal power plant. Weather systems are only so big.
Bingo! Same goes for Alberta and BC... BC Hydro could easily supplement and replace lots of dirty-ish baseload power in Alberta.... I say ish because we're turning off our last coal plant in a few months with a replacement gas turbine project build in its stead however 40% of all of Canada's CO2 emissions come from the tarsands near Fort Mac and that still has a disproportionate impact on our numbers... And they are still trying to expand capacity of that project several fold which would undo all the good from converting coal plants to gas.. Never mind the "temporary" pause on new wind and solar which was done to prop up the oil industry who backed our idiotic premier...
Th distance is incredible line voltage drop/losses are too great the energy company knows this but since th make their money off peaker plants they refuse to add storage….. tytyty Mr Elon
Even if Tony is off on timing by more than 50%, it’s still means that all of this will come to fruition before 2040. Not really all that far off in the future. Most people can’t perceive exponentials so it’s no wonder why most people can’t comprehend what’s about to happen.
To understnad exponentials take a chessboard, put inedollar on the first square, 2 dollars on the secon square, and so on doubling the amount on each subsequent square until you've covered all 64 squares. how much money will be on the chessboard at the end? And is there that much in the whole world?
Thank you for covering this. Have been a big Seba fan for a while but have not followed him recently. I hope that talk he gave is on RUclips. It's nice to have a reason for optimism when so much of the world is so dark right now! Keep up the good work.
I'm in the process of building a solar system for my house on Maui. To accommodate for even our very reasonable winter here I have to add 50% more solar panels to be off-grid. That means in the summer, I will generate a huge surplus. Being off grid, there's no place to put it except in AC and hot tubs I guess. Super power isn't inevitability with any properly designed solar system. The further you live from the equator, the greater the seasonal variation and the greater the percentage of superpower. Our local power company sells power starting at 42 cents per kilowatt hour. My whole system will be running me under $0.16 per kilowatt hour with 43 KWH of battery. The revolution is inevitable and it will be driven purely by economics.
I am having a second Powar wall two installed having run with the first one for just over five years. That will be 27 kWh of usable storage. Here in the UK even if the Sun is not shinng I can charge off peak for around £.15 per kw hour and sell during the peak for £.50, per kw hour. I should be able to sell around 15 kWh a day minimum with a “profit” of £5.25 a day - £36.75 a week or £1,911 a year. My new power wall worst case is paid for excluding any solar within 3.5 years then it’s pure profit same as the other one. I don’t know what people don’t see it’s money for old rope as we say….
@@PazLeBon Not sure I understand your reply - but at the very least, in the longer term, anything that reduces waste is a good thing no? Monolithic power from stations has transmission loss down power lines for example. Sure, things won't necessarily be entirely free (until maybe Nuclear Fusion is cracked) but to just continue burning stuff is no solution either.
@@ouethojlkjn i Im trying to be logical. We need to mine the batteries (pretty much), we will need probably 4 times as many electric pylons across the lands and nobody buys second hand electrical items such as a p.c which these are kinda becoming. On top of that we are to somehow dispose of a billion combustion engines etc. If I keep my current 20 year old car and Do my less than average miles per year my carbon footprint is x. If I dispose of my car, buy an new EV and become part of the new 'super grid' then my footprint will be 100 times bigger. So for me its way more efficient and less damaging to the planet, i cant see that any other way. I think if we'd waited ten years we would have hydrogen power which is instantly a smallerfootprint and can use the current grid (gas stations.. which with ev alo need to be 4 times bigger and more expensive than we have for gas/petrol currently)It ALL feels foolish
@@ouethojlkjn congratulations on being able to sell your power back. Unfortunately with the Monopoly we have here on Maui, they've put in a ton of legislative roadblocks to selling your power back to the grid. And if they do buy it back it's at 20% of market price. They also put restrictions on the size of your system how you can use it how much batteries you can have. It's legislated protectionism here. It's not worth it to even deal with them, but it would be a nice option. Due to public utility commission rules, I'm not even allowed to sell excess power to my neighbors if I wanted to. Utterly disgusting!
I first heard Seba in 2006 with his predictions and knew he was right. The next year, I started working in the wind power industry, selling thousands of wind turbine systems, then transitioned to solar about 5- years ago, selling tens of thousands of solar PV systems, helping Seba’s predictions come true, and they have. I own 2 EV’s and power my house with solar and a small wind turbine.
"Cost curves are like gravity" will always win. Solar, wind, and batteries remain the winner. Solar is taking over, wind is doing very well, battery storage is being deployed everywhere, and EVs are taking over. Prices have come down significantly for each of these 3, and this will continue. Autonomy will be so insane for economic growth that it is nuts to even try to understand. 1,000,000x in 10 years is insane. It wouldn't shock me though. 4x cheaper than running an ICE car is nuts. Precision Fermentation is big as well. Thank you for covering this, Electric Viking! I can't overstate how insane this is.
Insanity is believing Tony Seba. He gets some general trends right, but as Sam noted, changes occur in S-curves. Tony forgets that materials and labor will NEVER be free, and are not infinite in supply. He doesn't realize that he is a socialist.
Labour is about to drop with the mass production and deployment of AI-driven robots (Tesla's Optimus will be the gorilla in this space). Yes materials are also needed but with mining being done by robots they too will become much cheaper.
Thank you so much for this viewing of the crystal ball. This is exactly the type of content we need to focus investment strategies and gird our loins for massive change. Wow!
Tony Seba is one of my hero's. Also have some books. I 100% believe what's he is saying. He's not the idiots, the others are. I think about Motorola, Kodak, Blackberry, Nokia, ...
If solar costs have dropped then why have the solar estimates I have been given for the last 10 years not changed at all? The solar companies must be keeping more and more profits I assume. They also can't fit anywhere near enough panels on my roof to put a dent in my electricity needs is another problem. They also don't allow for my desire to install extra so I can raise my electric heat up higher than my current 45 degrees. By law they can't install more than last years electric usage. Lots of problems.
This is an interesting point, I’m a renter who would save money with solar where I live, but capital costs for installation are too high, if I installed my self and just paid for parts it would be better in terms of pay off time of just a few years, but regulations. I think there could be a much larger do it yourself solar installation craze , which would get a lot of people over the company install costs.
The fermented protien discussion makes me smile! At 27 yearss of age, I was 240 lbs. I got back to college swimming weight by combining beans, grains,and greens. All veg,no animal. With the exception of tartigrades.
Tony is not making extreme predictions. He's basically applying S-curve adoption to upcoming technologies. And by doing so, he's getting much much closer to reality than all the other IEA-like predictions.
@@freeheeler09 As other companies enter the market prices, including Tesla's, will decrease. And look for Tesla prices to decrease even without competition as they perfect the LFP 4680 cell. Tesla tends to hold with about 20% profit margins on products. As it becomes cheaper and cheaper for them to produce batteries they will be able to drop prices and make higher overall profits via higher volume sales.
And Americans will need to afford to buy a home instead of unreliability to charge their falling price batteries cost. Think about this . Millions of old apartment buildings with no EV charging. That’s millions of un motivated potential EV customers due to inconvenience to charge .
TY for the insight. Hardest thing about investing I've found is staying ahead. Started seeing that small cap stocks will rebound in 2024. They're already rising.
@@nitehawk9270 Nothing about those predictions requires central control of food. As always in human history, we stand on the edge of a precipice. There’s the potential for a nightmare future and there’s the potential for a paradise. Just keep fighting for the paradise.
5:40 This graph perfectly illustrates what I've been telling people who want to install solar for years. If you have enough panels (which are super cheap) then you only need enough battery capacity (which is much more expensive) to last for one night (though I recommend 2 nights just as a failsafe) since you will be producing energy even when it's raining.
It really depends on where you are. One February due to weather, I had practically no solar. One week was covered by ice, very unusual for us. But cloudy days impact
@@tireddad6541 Yeah if the panels are covered then they will obviously not function properly. They would have been fine if the ice was removed though...
50 percent of oil goes to making plastics, not transportation, heating or power. Even with all this solar, oil is still rising as peeps use moar electricity. Sheiks are sittin' pretty. And add another 5 years to Seba's 2030 estimate.
@@mikemotorbike4283 _50 percent of oil goes to making plastics_ Got a source for that claim? Because as far as I can find, 12-15% of the yearly global oil supply is used to create plastic. But perhaps you were thinking of 50% of the projected growth in demand for oil?
The disruption will be massive. Consider the fact that you do not need to transport sunlight and wind as you do fossil fuels. That means a huge reduction in the Supertanker fleet among many other changes like Battery Electric Locomotives…
That is what they said in 1960, no need for nuclear plants as solar would power the world in five years, they have repeated the same lie every year, we have never used as much coal or polluted as much. Only the French have clean energy.
Thank you. Prediction of the future is optimistic. Most predictions are for a dystopia War is the theme of humanity throughout history. Unfortunately, abundance never stopped war.
It's always good to learn new things. The changes will happen, the slow changes are the political and societal ones, The benefits for the environment and the climate will be enormous. This is also the element that needs to be central to the conversation. We can have energy, a vibrant economy and avert massive climate change with these new technologies.
Tony Seba reminds me of the young Albert Einstein. Both of them simply looked at the data and applied mathematical reasoning to available data. Einstein said, "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." There is no ego in Tony Seba's analysis either, just straightforward reasoning and clear vision. Both Seba and Einstein were ridiculed and mocked. Tony deserves a Nobel Prize. So did Einstein, but Einstein did not receive a Nobel for his relativity theories--they were too controversial. His Nobel was for solving an earlier problem in spectroscopy. (one that led to basic quantum mechanical ideas, BTW)
War could set his schedule way back. Lets hope not. Even severe sun activity or a nuclear bomb generated electromagnetic pulse could send us back to the 1800's. If your a planner though this is a guy to pay close attention to. Thanks for sharing. Blessings.
Another Carrington Event will be a megadisaster costing trillions and would give life to the fossil fuel industry for many years to come. Let's pray that we never see that happen again!
Super power. Thats a good name. It's how I use solar on my boat. Panels are cheaper than batteries. I have maxed out on solar, so for most of the year my battery (I only need the one) hardly does any work. The solar even gives me free hot wster for 8 months of the year.
I can see where Tony Seba is right over the issue of renewable "superpower". I had a modest ssolar PV system and two tesla powewalls - still had to revert to the grid a fair bit, especially on overcast days. I had to ofte charge my EV from the grid. I supersized my Solar PV and now I never revert to the grid and am charging two EVs and am exporting more than half of the power to the grid. It has also reduced the usage of my battery power to the poiint where I caould be doing the same with one battery as I rarely get down below 50%...
How often have we heard that energy will cost close to nothing? Not gonna happen. Those in charge will find some way to keep all the benefits Tony Seba talks of to themselves.
I think there's some truth to what you're saying. At the very least, I think that EV owners right now are in a sweet spot between regimes. As gasoline use falls, all those taxes paid at the pump are going to be switched over to our power bills. Those roads and bridges won't pay for themselves. As the old saying goes, there are only two sure things in life. . .
I don't know why people aren't making a bigger deal about autonomous vehicles. Nobody in Phoenix recommends you to get around with Uber or Lyft if you're visiting, they recommend you use autonomous taxis. The same thing is coming true in San Francisco.
I totally agree with the solar predictions for people living in sunnier climes. But here in the U.K. we have very erratic weather patterns and very little solar gain in the winter. So a cold January with continuously cold and still weather at -5C which happens periodically, we’d need to store at least 10 days energy which per house is over 50kWh for an average house including heating. That’s being conservative, but that equates to a 500kWh battery…. That’s huge. As a side note my oil tank for heating is 1800 litres that’s a 21,500 kWh heat store. Physics is physics.
Where I live mandatory auto insurance alone (liability only) is $2000/year. Transportation as a service is $1200/year for an annual bus pass. I have my doubts that "self driving" cars will ever take off. But they are not required to take off for transportation as a service to become affordable and convenient. Passenger rail has been electrified for a century now. It can be automated, assuming grade separation is in place.
There have been many videos around lithium ion batteries, components ( anode, cathode, chemistry ) including lab tests but EVs are still too expensive: battery prices. Volume production, safety and longevity along with better resource extraction have yet to show up.
Prices are plummeting, fires are a canard, bigger problem for ICE vehicles. Lithium is plentiful. These are scare stories to keep you wedded to the past.
So.... As someone who has never invested in stocks, I'm getting the idea from Mr Ceba that the name ofnthe game - part of it anyway - is to invest in the newer, disruptive technologies. If U come across as ignorant on this subject, it's because I am. But as the clock is ticking, I'd best be getting about educating myself in it. Thanks Sam!
I think it will happen, he's not the only one looking at the growth of technology and plotting the future position. Ray Kurzweil has been doing the same and he's also talking about the convergence of technology. What Tony's talking about sounds a lot like the coming of the Singularity as predicted by Ray.
I wish I had learned about Tony Seba and Rethink x years earlier. Whenever I look to the future, I wanna turn to people who have a track record of getting things right, people like Tony Seba and rethinkX. The IEA and the US EIA have been underestimating the progress of these technologies deliberately for the last 20 years and chose to ignore technology experts. I’m great full for Tony Seba and his extensive research. It has changed my view about the future of humanity for the better. Where others see a foggy tunnel, I see a beaming light at the end of the tunnel, a path to prosperity and abundance.
Father Time is undefeated but so is Mother Nature. This minority group of people who cannot live in accordance with nature are killing themselves just like every other biological system that is in conflict with its environment. The earth isn’t goin anywhere and neither are the people on it. It’s just been upside down for about the last 2,000 years but even that is changing.
Transportation only consumes 20 to 30% of all crude oil. Manufacturing accounts for the rest. Oil use won't stop. I'm all in on EVs, solar, and Battery Electric Storage Systems but the reality is oil won't stop.
This is the kind of positive message we need raise up above the FUD and foolish intransigence that most media laugh at or outright ignore. Thank you for this sensible reveal. Elon M. sings pretty much the same song. Elon's timing sucks, but he delivers - eventually. Why? Because he BELIEVES in the mission, no matter the cost, to arrive at the envisaged outcome. In a nutshell, VISION and DRIVE are the secret ingredients to achieving almost any goal.
I think we still need to have access to oil, gas, cows, etc. I am all for being less dependent on them, but having alternatives mitigates dependence risk and prevents large corporations from entirely controlling the means of production.
The future of such an increase in those energies is some sort of structured quantum dots. They are some types that are tied in knots an severely increase in energy output!
I've noticed that people's mental model is often that technology has gone up exponentially over millennia...but that from this day forward it'll suddenly be flattish. Extrapolating technological progress forward is hard mentally and even analytically. There tend to be a few wild flying-cars predictions, and even more today-but-different-shaped-icons-on-our-phones scenarios. A sensible middle ground is hard, in part because it sounds crazy. But it happens. I recall thirty some years ago hearing, from scientist colleagues, "I don't think you'll see much more improvement in batteries... people have been up and down the periodic table"...just before the immense progress of the last few decades. And now I read similar comments, despite all the new chemistries, and variations of existing chemistries and production processes, in the works, and the history of such "end of progress" predictions. Human nature is more a factor in most predictions than actual science and technology. Despite living through the fastest technology changes in history (as I write this on my battery powered pocket supercomputer, being old enough to see one bit ferrite cores in a working computer, albeit no longer connected, and for 256 bytes to be "a lot of memory"...but not just computers...DNA sequencing, gene splicing, solar, wind, batteries, stronger materials, robotics, automatic language translation...lots that's changed the world in profound ways, already), the conventional wisdom is a future of today with minor tweaks. It's really crazy, when you think about it.
True but Chinese EVs are not available at $5000 in the West. We are paying between 20k-60k today. Our societies, factories/wages etc etc are automobile based. Will be interesting to see how long it really takes to get $5000. Maybe the next 10 years will see the world divide into 2 states, Asia will have low prices, the West will remain expensive until we can transform our economies. The same logic applies to agriculture. No western society will accept hundreds of thousands of farmers being put out of business overnight. Interesting times.
Pickup trucks and SU-buses are a substantial part of the fleet of vehicles used for personal transportation in the USA. Five years from now, when those vehicles are being sold to people who would typically buy used vehicles, those buyers will get to choose between a brand new Chinese EV ($10,000?) and an oversized hulk that runs on expensive fuel and needs costly maintenance. Fewer people will want today's pickups and SU-buses so many of them will go straight to the scrap yard. We saw this same scenario in 1980-81 when good quality Japanese sedans replaced the USA-made "land yachts" of that era.
This may be possible and even likely; but, what will be the disruption to ordinary people, and to national economies? How will they react? And what will be the effect on human populations?
Sam, lithium mines are winding back or mothballing production now because they are struggling to make a profit at todays prices. If price drops another 50%+ where is Tony expecting the lithium to come from.
Tony Seba is right, its just that most people cant imagine exponential development. One big problem will be traffic congestion when prices of transport get so low.
Precision fermentation has the possibility to disrupt the milk industry, but its more likely that the product will be one of many choices, and that many people will still prefer a natural product complete with all its natural constituents much of the time. For commercial products in the food industry, the disruption is more likely.
I understand and agree with his ideas that the costs of producing solar energy and the cost of batteries will continue to go down, but he’s not taking into account limitations on the centralized power distribution grids. They’re not prepared for greater energy inputs and they’re certainly going to lobby against decentralized energy distribution. And they’re also not prepared for any type of massive solar flare event that knocks out millions of transformers across any of the centralized power grids.
Hagens and Michaux et al are all saying we don’t have the minerals to accomplish the transition to wind and solar and even if we did we’re too late in accessing them. When you then consider that our energy dependent economic system requires growth in order to function you begin to understand why there’s talk of a need for a “Great Reset” ( I’m an organic farmer with a farm that is running on a 480 panel array and I drive an EV)
Hi Sam, thank you. That conference room was full of men who made their trillions from oil, being told its over, better move on. I wonder if any major automobile CEOs, still making ICE were there, just being told its over, if there weren't any they should have been. I guess my love of ICEs is over at 72 yrs i did get to enjoy the best years of sounds, smells, break downs and crashes. Great posts
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Tony blew me away over 10 years ago, I saw his vision immediately and started telling people. I then started investing accordingly, told everyone. To this day not one person (only my wife trusted me) in my circle believes me. I'm going to be a multi millionaire, my wife and kids are set for life. Thanks Tony, it's all because of you 🎉
What are you looking to invest in based on these predictions?
@@AlbatiQue ? I'm already invested, long time ago. Did you read my post? I've done my best to keep spreading the word but no-one wants to hear it. I'm now laughing all the way to financial freedom by 50 years of age. If Tesla does a 10x from here I'm in private jet territory (I would never do it, just making a point). By being open to paradigm shifts and doing heaps of independent research even a financial novice like me is crushing it.
@@EVsAreEasy yes I read your post above, maybe on the above predictions by Tony Seba you had to do some readjusments of your portfolio.
@@EVsAreEasySometimes it's important to listen to what's going on in the world. Know I have almost only one suggestion, and unfortunately you can't buy it...
That is training, some walking and running almost every day, a little bit of gymnastics and "weight" lifting.
Then much vegetables for food, and you will increase your chances of having an enjoyable rest of your life.
I still find it hard to invest. Most solar companies are not doing too well. Most of them will disappear. Same for electric car companies. Competition is cruel. I would definitely avoid fossil fuel companies. This revolution will be good for consumers, not necessarily for the investors.
Viking do you know why your channel does not garnered million of views per video? This is because majority hate what you are saying. They know you are right and they just despise your view. I think you are brilliant and keep up the good work.
A universal truth about humans is that having belief systems challenged can be very painful. That’s why people were burned at the stake.
Yes there are dreams then here comes reality for years people thought they were immortal but damn reality again!😅
Absolutely loved this one. Its fun to be alive during this 'disruption' and a bit scary too.
There won't be many people who live to see this "disruption" through to the end.
All those that got the clot shot for example.
Be careful what you wish for...
Definitely a rough ride abead. Too many people identify with tbeir jobs and a lot more are stuck with tradition. The friction is just too high
Change is life. Deal or die.
Tony Seba is a great analyst and deserves a lot of credit.
Been my source of solace and inspiration for many years.He is a GREAT figure in history whether we see it or accept now or not
You are totally right Sam regarding Tony Seba's forward looking predictions. Long time fan of Tony's and believe he is going to be right once again. Thanks for doing this!
The key is distribution. For example, the Pacific DC Intertie (Path 65) sends high voltage between the Columbia River and Los Angeles, a distance of 1,142 miles. In the summer the Columbia River runs high and generates excess power that goes south to support air conditioning. In the winter LA extra capacity flows north to support heating. The systems complement each other.
Sucking a bit right now in southern California! And it's SUNNY!
For wind too...a study showed decades ago that wind power taken from a 1000 mile radius would be as reliable as a coal power plant. Weather systems are only so big.
Bingo! Same goes for Alberta and BC... BC Hydro could easily supplement and replace lots of dirty-ish baseload power in Alberta.... I say ish because we're turning off our last coal plant in a few months with a replacement gas turbine project build in its stead however 40% of all of Canada's CO2 emissions come from the tarsands near Fort Mac and that still has a disproportionate impact on our numbers... And they are still trying to expand capacity of that project several fold which would undo all the good from converting coal plants to gas.. Never mind the "temporary" pause on new wind and solar which was done to prop up the oil industry who backed our idiotic premier...
Th distance is incredible line voltage drop/losses are too great the energy company knows this but since th make their money off peaker plants they refuse to add storage….. tytyty Mr Elon
@sparkysho-ze7nm not too great when its at 500kV DC, also allows network parameter agumentation.
Possibly your best and most important video released on RUclips. This was excellent. Thank you very much for the content you create.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Even if Tony is off on timing by more than 50%, it’s still means that all of this will come to fruition before 2040. Not really all that far off in the future. Most people can’t perceive exponentials so it’s no wonder why most people can’t comprehend what’s about to happen.
was going to say this....ill be a retired senior in 2030, and from the 70's to the 30's my whole world will chanhge yet again!! yikes
To understnad exponentials take a chessboard, put inedollar on the first square, 2 dollars on the secon square, and so on doubling the amount on each subsequent square until you've covered all 64 squares. how much money will be on the chessboard at the end? And is there that much in the whole world?
Collectively Tony & whoever he is working with are brilliant! , I would be surprised if much of what he’s predicting fails to happen.
Thank you for bringing us this video and explaining it with real examples.
This is life changing for the good information. Thanks for sharing!
Thank you for covering this. Have been a big Seba fan for a while but have not followed him recently. I hope that talk he gave is on RUclips. It's nice to have a reason for optimism when so much of the world is so dark right now! Keep up the good work.
GREAT CONTENT!!!
This will all come true!
It's only a matter of time!
Sam, I wish I was younger. The vision of the future is plain to see. Thank you for this gem of a video..
Viking, one of your very best videos to date. Thank you
I'm in the process of building a solar system for my house on Maui. To accommodate for even our very reasonable winter here I have to add 50% more solar panels to be off-grid. That means in the summer, I will generate a huge surplus. Being off grid, there's no place to put it except in AC and hot tubs I guess. Super power isn't inevitability with any properly designed solar system. The further you live from the equator, the greater the seasonal variation and the greater the percentage of superpower. Our local power company sells power starting at 42 cents per kilowatt hour. My whole system will be running me under $0.16 per kilowatt hour with 43 KWH of battery. The revolution is inevitable and it will be driven purely by economics.
I am having a second Powar wall two installed having run with the first one for just over five years. That will be 27 kWh of usable storage. Here in the UK even if the Sun is not shinng I can charge off peak for around £.15 per kw hour and sell during the peak for £.50, per kw hour. I should be able to sell around 15 kWh a day minimum with a “profit” of £5.25 a day - £36.75 a week or £1,911 a year. My new power wall worst case is paid for excluding any solar within 3.5 years then it’s pure profit same as the other one. I don’t know what people don’t see it’s money for old rope as we say….
@@ouethojlkjn so nowhere near free at all,in fact quite expensive and still damaging to the planet :/
@@PazLeBon Not sure I understand your reply - but at the very least, in the longer term, anything that reduces waste is a good thing no? Monolithic power from stations has transmission loss down power lines for example. Sure, things won't necessarily be entirely free (until maybe Nuclear Fusion is cracked) but to just continue burning stuff is no solution either.
@@ouethojlkjn i Im trying to be logical. We need to mine the batteries (pretty much), we will need probably 4 times as many electric pylons across the lands and nobody buys second hand electrical items such as a p.c which these are kinda becoming. On top of that we are to somehow dispose of a billion combustion engines etc. If I keep my current 20 year old car and Do my less than average miles per year my carbon footprint is x. If I dispose of my car, buy an new EV and become part of the new 'super grid' then my footprint will be 100 times bigger. So for me its way more efficient and less damaging to the planet, i cant see that any other way. I think if we'd waited ten years we would have hydrogen power which is instantly a smallerfootprint and can use the current grid (gas stations.. which with ev alo need to be 4 times bigger and more expensive than we have for gas/petrol currently)It ALL feels foolish
@@ouethojlkjn congratulations on being able to sell your power back. Unfortunately with the Monopoly we have here on Maui, they've put in a ton of legislative roadblocks to selling your power back to the grid. And if they do buy it back it's at 20% of market price. They also put restrictions on the size of your system how you can use it how much batteries you can have. It's legislated protectionism here. It's not worth it to even deal with them, but it would be a nice option. Due to public utility commission rules, I'm not even allowed to sell excess power to my neighbors if I wanted to. Utterly disgusting!
I first heard Seba in 2006 with his predictions and knew he was right. The next year, I started working in the wind power industry, selling thousands of wind turbine systems, then transitioned to solar about 5- years ago, selling tens of thousands of solar PV systems, helping Seba’s predictions come true, and they have. I own 2 EV’s and power my house with solar and a small wind turbine.
Cool how much energy does your wind turbine produce
Respect Sir 🙏
Lol! A seller of dreams....
About squat! He's grid connected!
@@ken-mb5cpno, so you should just give me all your stuff
"Cost curves are like gravity" will always win. Solar, wind, and batteries remain the winner.
Solar is taking over, wind is doing very well, battery storage is being deployed everywhere, and EVs are taking over. Prices have come down significantly for each of these 3, and this will continue.
Autonomy will be so insane for economic growth that it is nuts to even try to understand.
1,000,000x in 10 years is insane. It wouldn't shock me though. 4x cheaper than running an ICE car is nuts.
Precision Fermentation is big as well.
Thank you for covering this, Electric Viking! I can't overstate how insane this is.
Insanity is believing Tony Seba. He gets some general trends right, but as Sam noted, changes occur in S-curves. Tony forgets that materials and labor will NEVER be free, and are not infinite in supply. He doesn't realize that he is a socialist.
Labour is about to drop with the mass production and deployment of AI-driven robots (Tesla's Optimus will be the gorilla in this space). Yes materials are also needed but with mining being done by robots they too will become much cheaper.
For sure,@@tomturnbull3723.
Labor costs are about to fall significantly given humanoids. We've seen nothing yet.
Think back 10 years ago, You would have said the same as you said now . . . . "he probably is to optimistic". I think he is right.
Thank you so much for this viewing of the crystal ball. This is exactly the type of content we need to focus investment strategies and gird our loins for massive change. Wow!
Tony Seba is one of my hero's. Also have some books. I 100% believe what's he is saying. He's not the idiots, the others are. I think about Motorola, Kodak, Blackberry, Nokia, ...
Last 3 phones have been Motorola...
Kodak just released new camera...
Nokia 15th best selling phone in US.
Blackberry got kiled by US Gov as it cannot spy on BB users and also protect krApple monopoly 😊
If solar costs have dropped then why have the solar estimates I have been given for the last 10 years not changed at all? The solar companies must be keeping more and more profits I assume. They also can't fit anywhere near enough panels on my roof to put a dent in my electricity needs is another problem. They also don't allow for my desire to install extra so I can raise my electric heat up higher than my current 45 degrees. By law they can't install more than last years electric usage. Lots of problems.
This is an interesting point, I’m a renter who would save money with solar where I live, but capital costs for installation are too high, if I installed my self and just paid for parts it would be better in terms of pay off time of just a few years, but regulations. I think there could be a much larger do it yourself solar installation craze , which would get a lot of people over the company install costs.
Loved this long form video on Tony Seba, definitely deserving of it. Thank you Viking, Merry Christmas, sir ☺️🎄
Glad you enjoyed it!
The fermented protien discussion makes me smile! At 27 yearss of age, I was 240 lbs. I got back to college swimming weight by combining beans, grains,and greens. All veg,no animal. With the exception of tartigrades.
Tony is not making extreme predictions. He's basically applying S-curve adoption to upcoming technologies. And by doing so, he's getting much much closer to reality than all the other IEA-like predictions.
Thanks!
Doing a great job Sam! Keep it up buddy!
Thanks a ton!
I would not bet against Tony! Fabulous video - thanks!
🤗THANKS SAM,IF OIL SHEIKS ARE LISTENING 👂 THEN WE SHOULD AS WELL 😅👍💚💚💚
Wow 🤯 your best video recently Sam. Seeing the changes that have occurred and are occurring, I would say he’s right 😊
The important part in the battery price chart is that before 2030 car batteries will be half the price they are now.
Now we need a new disruptor company to turn Tesla’s home battery division into Nokia by manufacturing an affordable home storage battery.
@@freeheeler09
As other companies enter the market prices, including Tesla's, will decrease. And look for Tesla prices to decrease even without competition as they perfect the LFP 4680 cell. Tesla tends to hold with about 20% profit margins on products. As it becomes cheaper and cheaper for them to produce batteries they will be able to drop prices and make higher overall profits via higher volume sales.
Yet a Kia pack costs $60 GRAND!
@@freeheeler09I suspect Tesla will be able to apply Wright’s Law before anyone else!
And Americans will need to afford to buy a home instead of unreliability to charge their falling price batteries cost. Think about this . Millions of old apartment buildings with no EV charging. That’s millions of un motivated potential EV customers due to inconvenience to charge .
Thanks Sam and merry Christmas to all.
Happy holidays!
TY for the insight. Hardest thing about investing I've found is staying ahead. Started seeing that small cap stocks will rebound in 2024. They're already rising.
On the positive side, I do agree we're heading for super abundance so on that we agree.
Or your food centrally controlled. Control food, control people.
@@nitehawk9270 Nothing about those predictions requires central control of food. As always in human history, we stand on the edge of a precipice. There’s the potential for a nightmare future and there’s the potential for a paradise. Just keep fighting for the paradise.
5:40 This graph perfectly illustrates what I've been telling people who want to install solar for years. If you have enough panels (which are super cheap) then you only need enough battery capacity (which is much more expensive) to last for one night (though I recommend 2 nights just as a failsafe) since you will be producing energy even when it's raining.
It really depends on where you are. One February due to weather, I had practically no solar. One week was covered by ice, very unusual for us.
But cloudy days impact
Or, you need one Cybertruck in the driveway, which is able to power the house for several days if need be.
@@Alarix246 Yip, there are already many EVs that offer V2H and V2L. This is definitely the future.
@@tireddad6541 Yeah if the panels are covered then they will obviously not function properly. They would have been fine if the ice was removed though...
glad I'll be around to see it. those oil barons should be thinking about what next for them.
Love it; speaking to a bunch of sheiks and explaining how their days as oil magnates are almost done.
@TankUni Hopefully he doesn't talk in Russia...
As I said, a brave man!
50 percent of oil goes to making plastics, not transportation, heating or power. Even with all this solar, oil is still rising as peeps use moar electricity. Sheiks are sittin' pretty. And add another 5 years to Seba's 2030 estimate.
@@mikemotorbike4283 _50 percent of oil goes to making plastics_
Got a source for that claim? Because as far as I can find, 12-15% of the yearly global oil supply is used to create plastic.
But perhaps you were thinking of 50% of the projected growth in demand for oil?
best wishes to your family, Sam...
The disruption will be massive. Consider the fact that you do not need to transport sunlight and wind as you do fossil fuels. That means a huge reduction in the Supertanker fleet among many other changes like Battery Electric Locomotives…
That is what they said in 1960, no need for nuclear plants as solar would power the world in five years, they have repeated the same lie every year, we have never used as much coal or polluted as much.
Only the French have clean energy.
Brilliant point.
Right, you'll only need high voltage transmission lines in everyone's backyard.
Smart man, I will be following him !
Merry Christmas Sam an may you and your family have a very happy new year
Same to you!
Thank you. Prediction of the future is optimistic. Most predictions are for a dystopia War is the theme of humanity throughout history. Unfortunately, abundance never stopped war.
All this is possible but power is difficult to relinquish. I hope we can see all of this come true.
Heh. You said "power."
It's always good to learn new things. The changes will happen, the slow changes are the political and societal ones, The benefits for the environment and the climate will be enormous. This is also the element that needs to be central to the conversation. We can have energy, a vibrant economy and avert massive climate change with these new technologies.
Tony Seba reminds me of the young Albert Einstein. Both of them simply looked at the data and applied mathematical reasoning to available data. Einstein said, "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." There is no ego in Tony Seba's analysis either, just straightforward reasoning and clear vision. Both Seba and Einstein were ridiculed and mocked. Tony deserves a Nobel Prize. So did Einstein, but Einstein did not receive a Nobel for his relativity theories--they were too controversial. His Nobel was for solving an earlier problem in spectroscopy. (one that led to basic quantum mechanical ideas, BTW)
War could set his schedule way back. Lets hope not. Even severe sun activity or a nuclear bomb generated electromagnetic pulse could send us back to the 1800's. If your a planner though this is a guy to pay close attention to. Thanks for sharing. Blessings.
There was War during the last time we had so much convergent disruption. Exponential Disruption and costs curves are not impeded by war(s).
Another Carrington Event will be a megadisaster costing trillions and would give life to the fossil fuel industry for many years to come. Let's pray that we never see that happen again!
Super power. Thats a good name. It's how I use solar on my boat. Panels are cheaper than batteries. I have maxed out on solar, so for most of the year my battery (I only need the one) hardly does any work. The solar even gives me free hot wster for 8 months of the year.
My opinion is that every house should have photo voltaic installation , every car garage and any kind of business .
Thought provoking video Sam. Change is constant.
@!15 : 05 2 cents per watt NOT KILLOWATT Gudday Mr Sam super stoked video well done 👍
I can see where Tony Seba is right over the issue of renewable "superpower". I had a modest ssolar PV system and two tesla powewalls - still had to revert to the grid a fair bit, especially on overcast days. I had to ofte charge my EV from the grid. I supersized my Solar PV and now I never revert to the grid and am charging two EVs and am exporting more than half of the power to the grid. It has also reduced the usage of my battery power to the poiint where I caould be doing the same with one battery as I rarely get down below 50%...
so you are already 2 ev's of carbon footprint going, what a joke., we shoukld be using a nad refurbing old cars
How often have we heard that energy will cost close to nothing? Not gonna happen. Those in charge will find some way to keep all the benefits Tony Seba talks of to themselves.
I think there's some truth to what you're saying. At the very least, I think that EV owners right now are in a sweet spot between regimes. As gasoline use falls, all those taxes paid at the pump are going to be switched over to our power bills. Those roads and bridges won't pay for themselves.
As the old saying goes, there are only two sure things in life. . .
I don't know why people aren't making a bigger deal about autonomous vehicles. Nobody in Phoenix recommends you to get around with Uber or Lyft if you're visiting, they recommend you use autonomous taxis. The same thing is coming true in San Francisco.
I totally agree with the solar predictions for people living in sunnier climes. But here in the U.K. we have very erratic weather patterns and very little solar gain in the winter. So a cold January with continuously cold and still weather at -5C which happens periodically, we’d need to store at least 10 days energy which per house is over 50kWh for an average house including heating. That’s being conservative, but that equates to a 500kWh battery…. That’s huge. As a side note my oil tank for heating is 1800 litres that’s a 21,500 kWh heat store. Physics is physics.
One of your most important videos to date
Where I live mandatory auto insurance alone (liability only) is $2000/year. Transportation as a service is $1200/year for an annual bus pass.
I have my doubts that "self driving" cars will ever take off. But they are not required to take off for transportation as a service to become affordable and convenient. Passenger rail has been electrified for a century now. It can be automated, assuming grade separation is in place.
There have been many videos around lithium ion batteries, components ( anode, cathode, chemistry ) including lab tests but EVs are still too expensive: battery prices. Volume production, safety and longevity along with better resource extraction have yet to show up.
Prices are plummeting, fires are a canard, bigger problem for ICE vehicles. Lithium is plentiful. These are scare stories to keep you wedded to the past.
So....
As someone who has never invested in stocks, I'm getting the idea from Mr Ceba that the name ofnthe game - part of it anyway - is to invest in the newer, disruptive technologies.
If U come across as ignorant on this subject, it's because I am. But as the clock is ticking, I'd best be getting about educating myself in it.
Thanks Sam!
I am absolutly shure he is 100% right.
I think it will happen, he's not the only one looking at the growth of technology and plotting the future position. Ray Kurzweil has been doing the same and he's also talking about the convergence of technology. What Tony's talking about sounds a lot like the coming of the Singularity as predicted by Ray.
I wish I had learned about Tony Seba and Rethink x years earlier. Whenever I look to the future, I wanna turn to people who have a track record of getting things right, people like Tony Seba and rethinkX. The IEA and the US EIA have been underestimating the progress of these technologies deliberately for the last 20 years and chose to ignore technology experts. I’m great full for Tony Seba and his extensive research. It has changed my view about the future of humanity for the better. Where others see a foggy tunnel, I see a beaming light at the end of the tunnel, a path to prosperity and abundance.
This gives me hope that humanity won't destroy itself.
Father Time is undefeated but so is Mother Nature.
This minority group of people who cannot live in accordance with nature are killing themselves just like every other biological system that is in conflict with its environment. The earth isn’t goin anywhere and neither are the people on it. It’s just been upside down for about the last 2,000 years but even that is changing.
Love this! Thanks amigo
Glad you like it!
Transportation only consumes 20 to 30% of all crude oil. Manufacturing accounts for the rest. Oil use won't stop. I'm all in on EVs, solar, and Battery Electric Storage Systems but the reality is oil won't stop.
This is the kind of positive message we need raise up above the FUD and foolish intransigence that most media laugh at or outright ignore. Thank you for this sensible reveal.
Elon M. sings pretty much the same song. Elon's timing sucks, but he delivers - eventually. Why? Because he BELIEVES in the mission, no matter the cost, to arrive at the envisaged outcome.
In a nutshell, VISION and DRIVE are the secret ingredients to achieving almost any goal.
I think we still need to have access to oil, gas, cows, etc.
I am all for being less dependent on them, but having alternatives mitigates dependence risk and prevents large corporations from entirely controlling the means of production.
Wow, really interesting stuff. I own an electric car and so know that gas is dead. But the rest is new and I drank the coolaid.
Cheers,
Jef
The future of such an increase in those energies is some sort of structured quantum dots. They are some types that are tied in knots an severely increase in energy output!
Wish the government had MP's with this visions.
Bob
Tony Seba is the man!
I don't know about all of Tony's projections, but I'm pretty sure that he is correct about ICE vehicles being irrelevant by 2030.
I've noticed that people's mental model is often that technology has gone up exponentially over millennia...but that from this day forward it'll suddenly be flattish. Extrapolating technological progress forward is hard mentally and even analytically. There tend to be a few wild flying-cars predictions, and even more today-but-different-shaped-icons-on-our-phones scenarios. A sensible middle ground is hard, in part because it sounds crazy. But it happens. I recall thirty some years ago hearing, from scientist colleagues, "I don't think you'll see much more improvement in batteries... people have been up and down the periodic table"...just before the immense progress of the last few decades. And now I read similar comments, despite all the new chemistries, and variations of existing chemistries and production processes, in the works, and the history of such "end of progress" predictions. Human nature is more a factor in most predictions than actual science and technology. Despite living through the fastest technology changes in history (as I write this on my battery powered pocket supercomputer, being old enough to see one bit ferrite cores in a working computer, albeit no longer connected, and for 256 bytes to be "a lot of memory"...but not just computers...DNA sequencing, gene splicing, solar, wind, batteries, stronger materials, robotics, automatic language translation...lots that's changed the world in profound ways, already), the conventional wisdom is a future of today with minor tweaks. It's really crazy, when you think about it.
As far as the $5000, 300 km range car by 2030, the Wuling Hongguang Mini is close now.
True but Chinese EVs are not available at $5000 in the West. We are paying between 20k-60k today. Our societies, factories/wages etc etc are automobile based. Will be interesting to see how long it really takes to get $5000. Maybe the next 10 years will see the world divide into 2 states, Asia will have low prices, the West will remain expensive until we can transform our economies. The same logic applies to agriculture. No western society will accept hundreds of thousands of farmers being put out of business overnight. Interesting times.
Fascinating!👍🙏🙂
Glad you enjoyed it
Pickup trucks and SU-buses are a substantial part of the fleet of vehicles used for personal transportation in the USA. Five years from now, when those vehicles are being sold to people who would typically buy used vehicles, those buyers will get to choose between a brand new Chinese EV ($10,000?) and an oversized hulk that runs on expensive fuel and needs costly maintenance. Fewer people will want today's pickups and SU-buses so many of them will go straight to the scrap yard. We saw this same scenario in 1980-81 when good quality Japanese sedans replaced the USA-made "land yachts" of that era.
This may be possible and even likely; but, what will be the disruption to ordinary people, and to national economies? How will they react? And what will be the effect on human populations?
Sam, lithium mines are winding back or mothballing production now because they are struggling to make a profit at todays prices. If price drops another 50%+ where is Tony expecting the lithium to come from.
Lithium is not essential to all batteries.
Fantastic as always Sam, Happy Christmas to you and yours mate
Same to you!
Tony Seba is right, its just that most people cant imagine exponential development. One big problem will be traffic congestion when prices of transport get so low.
There will be much less congestion once TAAS transportation asa service, kicks in. Parking spaces and lots will need to be repurposed.
Oil is still needed for plastics, synth rubbers & tires, lubricants & roads, and bug ships, tractors f trains, & cargo boats will take time.
Getting a new set or car tires can already cost around $700-800, if that's the price of just the tires I highly doubt you'll get a quality car for 5k.
When I see those wind generators 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂. Nuts…
Precision fermentation has the possibility to disrupt the milk industry, but its more likely that the product will be one of many choices, and that many people will still prefer a natural product complete with all its natural constituents much of the time. For commercial products in the food industry, the disruption is more likely.
People don't realize how much milk is used in food products, doesn't take much to disrupt an industry.
@@turningpoint4238I agree with you there, and for farmers it will be a serious loss of income
You can always buy a cow, or perhaps shares in a cow.
I think with robots and automation, and a bunch of other stuff that’s coming, I think you nailed it
I agree 100%.
Cheers mate
Gudday mate tytyty top notch intelligent information
Hello Sam,
Can you give us the link of Tony's video, please?
ruclips.net/video/7eJKTYc_v-I/видео.html
Great video Sam. I think Tony Seba’s predictions may be a little optimistic but it’s difficult to argue with the direction.
if you're a middle eastern sheik, his predictions aren't optimistic, they're terrifying.
They will fight this in all ways at their disposal.....incredible amount of FUD propoganda is inbound.
Did Tony get all his predictions right? Or are we just hearing about the ones that were right?
Every new partnership announcement gets me more excited about Staxum!
100 dollar for 1 kw/h. Wow, the profit margin on home batteries is huge.
Atonement cars work best in walkable, mixed use neighbourhoods. You don’t need to go great distance that often.
I understand and agree with his ideas that the costs of producing solar energy and the cost of batteries will continue to go down, but he’s not taking into account limitations on the centralized power distribution grids.
They’re not prepared for greater energy inputs and they’re certainly going to lobby against decentralized energy distribution.
And they’re also not prepared for any type of massive solar flare event that knocks out millions of transformers across any of the centralized power grids.
Thumbs up on this one sir.
Hagens and Michaux et al are all saying we don’t have the minerals to accomplish the transition to wind and solar and even if we did we’re too late in accessing them. When you then consider that our energy dependent economic system requires growth in order to function you begin to understand why there’s talk of a need for a “Great Reset”
( I’m an organic farmer with a farm that is running on a 480 panel array and I drive an EV)
Jeez, another amazing episode 👍
Hi Sam,
thank you.
That conference room was full of men who made their trillions from oil, being told its over, better move on.
I wonder if any major automobile CEOs, still making ICE were there, just being told its over, if there weren't any they should have been.
I guess my love of ICEs is over at 72 yrs i did get to enjoy the best years of sounds, smells, break downs and crashes.
Great posts
We don't even need any storage as long as we have HVDC distribution for long distances