I used Gary's code when I switched to Octopus. Plenty of other RUclipsrs were asking for it, but his channel is a clear stand out for its technical utility and the effort he's put into helping people navigate the transition to electricity. It's far from the same old opinion and personal anecdote typical of RUclipsrs - Gary is on a par with Heat Geek from the heat pump world. Massive respect and thanks.
Totally Agree with this - Gary has totally guided me through my solar instal and Heat Geek I have used for my heat pump for exactly the same reason - great simple education reduces the risk when installing these new technologies.
I’m in Calif, the fees added to my electric bill are 68% of the total bill. So 32% of my bill is actually for the power I use.. Ten years ago my power bill was approx $75. Today it’s approx $300 and I’m not using more power. My point is that adding Solar and batteries and going off grid completely makes a lot of sense now. I can avoid these fees and cost of the power and see a pretty fast ROI. Batteries is the key.
Or do a solar + battery import-only system. The utility just sees a reduction in load and you maintain the redundancy and convenience of a grid connection.
Very informative. I now understand the “duck curve” and understand why I should recharge my EV during the day when I’m producing the most electricity. Thanks.
So I paid about $12,000 for all of my solar equipment and batteries. Installed it myself. I did market research and created an invoice for about $24,000 for total installed cost and took the 30% tax credit on that! 😂 Then I said screw you to the local electric utilities and I said screw you to my local building department and I did not get a permit and I do not have an interconnection agreement. My system is completely hidden from view. I have set my system up in self consumption mode, with zero export to the grid. Operating for almost 2 years now and no one has detected my system. It saves me at least $2500 per year and my payback period comes out to less than three years. I really enjoy operating under the radar and screw them all!
Hi, they are in business to sell YOU power. The setup you have is called selfish solar, you keep it for your use. This is what they drive you to with fees on your bill. Fill you battery, charge your car and heat and cool. Your home and heat your water. Sounds good to me. Take care M.
@boblatkey7160 you didn't do that. If you really know electric and could install it correctly, then thats one thing, but admitting to tax fraud on a public forum is just beyond stupid.
@@davidbreeden9070 Well I hate to pop your bubble when calling someone stupid, but the IRS is not monitoring comments on RUclips! 😂😂😂🖕🖕 That is absolutely hilarious to assume so. I know hundreds of people who have fudged their numbers for the tax return! You do not get audited unless you do something absolutely dumb. I also know plenty of people who have reroofed their entire house and charged all of it toward the 30% solar tax credit and have had no issues at all. I am an electrician and have been installing solar systems since the mid 1990s. Thank you
Here in rural Victoria Australia I have 35kw pv panels, 18kw battery, all electric house, tesla ev. We used to get 11c kw export - next week that is dropping to a min of 2c if i dont export in peak times - 8c/kw at peak. I need to find something to use up my generated power. I live in an area that doesnt have town water and have a brackish well. Looking at spending another $10k in a small reverse ossmosis plant capable of treating 2000lt a day to end my water uncertainty. To put a value on water if i run out it costs me $500 for 20000 lt trucked in, so the daily top up using morning solar could be valued at $50 - far better than the 2c/kw feed in tarrif available. And what would i do with all that water - im building a brewery.
@@raymondschembri5042 Loch Sport on the Gippsland Lakes and yes should have brewery and Tiny House AirBNB open this summer (subject to liquor licencing)
Hi, once you have the solar you have the power. This is why they hare you having it, but it is the best option. The power companies don’t like it. Take care and have your own solar. M.
Last year we put in 6kW of Solar and 24kWh of batteries (in the UK). It has reduced our total electricity bill from £2,700 to £412 - which is not unexpected. However, looking at the data, 75% of that saving has come from the batteries, buying low cost power overnight and using it during the day / evening. 20% from the power generated by the panels reducing the amount imported overnight and 5% from the £0.15 export tariff. It's worth noting, particularly for people who cannot fit solar panels, that you can achieve a significant saving by just installing batteries and not bothering with the solar! I love having the solar, just to give a bit of self sufficiency and independence from the utilities - but financially it was not as worthwhile as batteries alone.
Now I really find the OP's comment interesting. People like him appear to be helping shift the demand around. It's an interesting case of things actually getting sorted out by the market.
Can’t thank you enough for these videos Gary. I’m in the process of nearly doubling my solar install, and getting a battery system with backup gateway. I’m in rural Mayo in Ireland. Lots of storms, and after next October my export tariff drops from 29.5c to 19c, and 3 months ago it was 34c. Seems Ireland is cutting the export rates also. With the storms and power cuts it all just makes sense. Shame Ireland is so expensive for systems. We don’t even have access to the Tesla Powerwalls, and the closest equivalent is the SigEnergy system. Which costs more than the Tesla does in the UK.
You’re most welcome - really happy to hear my videos have been useful 😀 Hopefully prices will come down and you’ll get greater access to products before long!
I am in UK with the old FIT contract where they pay me a deemed 50% export at 7p for the next 10 years (I’ve had it for 10 years already so half way through the contract). So they pay me for what I generate and pay me to export even if I self consume all I generate. Thus I got a battery to cover the peak evening use. I guess this is why they stopped the FIT contracts. 😁
And no doubt it will use retail price index (RPI) for the rates, with the generation tariff being 21.49p/kWh. The “deemed export” was set up when export meters were generally not available domestically, but modern SMART ones, like the one my supplier has installed, can do that.
I didnt understand why so many US providers were slashing their buy back rates. Now I do, so awesome insight. The solution is simple: grids should re-focus incentives on home batteries.
I had the same question, so did a little research and found the following which may be helpful to you. "Energy Companies Offering VPP Programs Octopus Energy is a prominent company offering a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program in the UK. Their Intelligent Octopus tariff allows customers to manage their energy use smartly, including exporting surplus solar energy." As a side note, I am already an Octopus customer (they are a very good company from my personal experience) and will be getting solar panels + battery storage so will be looking at their VPP program definitely.
Aussie here, initial install was 18 S6 Sunpower panels and a Powerwall 2, just signed up for another 10 panels and a second PW2. Usage tariff is 40 cents, feed in is 6 cents. We have an energy retailer who has dynamic FIT, and consumption tariff is 25% off, allowing consumers to "play the market" by buying and selling energy. Storage is the key (after self consumption) to minimising costs while maximising returns. Final state will see the use of automation to shift charging to the centre of the peak, and forcing export during peak demand while still meeting household needs. Our ROI on initial install was 6 years, with the additional infrastructure that number has blown out to 8 years, however, moving to the company with dynamic FIT may allow that period to reduce
Get a variable tariff and dump the power between 4-8pm you will get 40p+ per kwh your ROI will be maximum 5 years with average energy consumption, if your consumption is high it will be 4 years or less, also get a decent capacity battery
@GaryDoesSolar It's a good strategy to maximise ROI, but it's also likely to be the first target. There was talk about a year ago of stopping arbitrage by domestic customers and I'm surprised it's still allowed. I reckon the export price will be set at a percentage of your average import price over the previous couple of days.
In CA and on Nem 2. We have solar and batteries. We have no net annual electrical cost. If we had to buy power it would be around 450 per month. So the pay back period was around 8 years in 2020 when we installed. With the new rate increases it look like 6 years. We are grandfathered in to NEM 2 for 20 years. We also sell power back to grid at high rates as part of Tesla’s virtual power plant program. We receive a check for between 300-500 dollars a year for the power.
Thank you for another very clear video. It's been clear for some time that a "day of reckoning" would arrive where the grid value of exports would negative. But it is still very unclear to me how we will collectively manage it. I have a Tesla Powerwall 2 and it is generally excellent, but not the most flexible in terms of programming to match, for example, Agile tariffs. Perhaps you could take a look at some battery systems and compare them from teh point of view of programmability. Just a suggestion. Best wishes: Michael
Here in NSW Australia, negative pricing is an opt in at the moment but mandatory from July 2025. Its complicated but basically you will be able to export xxkWh/ month but above that threashold you will pay/kWh. I'm already prepared an an automatic program runs to stop exports when the price is -ve. Not easy to set up for the average punter to set up, but I think the market will start offering addons to throttle your inverter in the future.
@@PowerOn- Yes, I think your comment "the market will start offering addons to throttle your inverter in the future" is correct. How the world has changed! Best wishes: M
I agree that the Powerwall software is really limited. I can't even set up a schedule that is self-powered (use the batteries to store excess solar) in summer and time-based (fill up the batteries with cheap power overnight) in winter… which seems such an obvious thing for users to want to do.
@@markiliff I agree it's not very flexible but we are able to do what you described. We use "Self-Powered" in summer and go off grid for between 3 and 4 months. We then switch to time-based control. I have to cheat slightly to get this to work. At the moment (in the UK/September 2024) the export price is 15 p/kWh and the buy price is 7p/kWh for 6 hours at night, otherwise 24 p/kWh. So it fills the battery at night but then exports as much solar as it can. Soon I will switch to telling it that export price is lower and then it will use teh available solar to re-charge the battery and keep us of full-price electricity for longer.
@@michaeldepodesta001 Sounds good. It's the _have to cheat slightly_ that disappoints me. In my case the schedule will automatically switch from _no cheap period_ in summer to _cheap hours 00.30-07.30_ in winter, but I still have to switch between time-based and self-powered manually - pretty dumb. Oh, and schedules can only start on the 1st of a month.
Hi Gary, great presentation. I just like to point out that the issue with VPP is that the companies that control the battery have unfretted access to your battery. It is known that they have rundown the battery so many times and have diminished the battery life significantly. Generally, the battery life is about 6000 cycles. VPP can use this very frequently for their benefit and reduce the life by 25% or more. However, in Australia there is a provider Amber Electrics, that pay you whole sale prices and makes sure one does not export when whole sale prices are negative during the mid day. They also give the user very high control of the battery so that the owner can override any Amber company settings. It also provides the option for owners to export much higher quantum of energy into the grid at peak periods where 1kWhr can be as high as 1A$/kWhr. So as you said the only way forward is going to be for home owners to have a battery system complementing the Solar panels.
Thank you for the great feedback! And yes, I would expect VPP operators not to abuse customers' home batteries. That said, if you think about EV batteries and how they are used day in day out, I would expect modern home batteries to also handle 2-3 cycles a day (remembering that 1 cycle is a full-charge/discharge)... Sounds like Amber is doing the right thing for their customers!
Here in Canada, if you check the electricity bill there are different fees/tariffs on the electricity bill so as more users switch to solar etc you will see these fees increase as elec companies try for a cash grab, they are not only making money on producing electricity but also on reselling YOURS. The only way to beat them is to get battery backup systems and remove yourself from the grid completely. If you don't you will still pay monthly fees. I realize this will have a high setup cost but over a long term period it will be beneficial
I worry for the day when they realize all those taxes they're collecting on electricity have dried up and resort to charging people yearly solar licensing fees to have solar installed at all to compensate themselves for what they perceive as lost revenue. Naturally those fees will be going up every year at their whim.
I can understand that energy providers are increasingly struggling with the amount of renewables feeding into the Grid. However, this was to be expected. People were being asked to install Solar, companies were being told (and paid) to install Wind Turbines. The energy companies "forgot" to do their part, which is increasing grid capacity and installing batteries and other storage facilities. What is happening now, around the Globe, is mostly going to slow down or even stop people investing in Solar. This will mitigate the issue of Grid stability, but it will also mean we move further away from reaching the goals for reducing emissions. I can already hear all the complaints from Governments and energy providers in the future. Homeowners have done their part, we have invested time and money, while the Grid operators have done far too little to prepare the Grid for an exponential increase in volatile renewables. All this has achieved is more resentment towards "green energy" and more distrust in energy providers and governments.
My gosh, can you imagine companies not making investments that lose money? Why is it that you expect there to be grid storage? If it makes sense, folks would be investing in distributed batteries just like roof top solar. In practice, with current prices, batteries make sense for EVs but not for grid scale storage. The early adopters of solar are well off folks being subsidized by less well off rate payers.
@@richdobbs6595 Most solar Installations come with Batteries, so that distributed storage is already a thing. Where batteries and hydrogen plants are mostly lacking is for wind energy, at least here in Germany.
@@rolandrohde You are just plain wrong. Most grid tied solar systems built in the last decade don't have batteries. Maybe you are influenced that since feed in tariffs have been cut, those that have been built quite recently are now having batteries.
Great informative videos Gary! Export limitation is key in my opinion (While you can!) with battery storage. The grid network is influenced heavily by the utility companies, and restrictions to generation over and above the current 3.6 kW/16 amps per phase limit (even with export limitation activated) will soon apply in order to protect the utility companies interests! Oversizing your array with current module costs at an all time low is Golden in my opinion. do not factor export benefits as your decision deal maker or breaker! DO NOT get locked up by tantalising deals offered by the big utility companies, lots of these are flawed and will come back to bite you! Especially when you try to contact them when the system needs attention! Try and become as self-sufficient as you can, while you have the opportunity... Finally do not buy cheap battery storage products, again it will come back to bite you!
Here in NSW Australia, the network operator will charge for exports over a given monthly threashold. This is currently an 'opt in', but will be mandatory from July 2025. As it is a network charge it's passed through regardless of your retailer, ie you will have no choice. Given the UK has significant wind resources you will rapidly join the negative pricing club somehow. Don't panic, just be prepared and follow the advice Gary has given. One aspect that Gary has not covered is 'self curtailment'. Whilst this is a last resort it will be necessary to avoid the costs of exporting whilst the price is -ve. It is possible to do this with almost all inverters but you do need some signal available to do this and currently not easy for the average joe to sort out.
Around 14, you mentioned what might happen in a couple of years. A lot has changed over recent years, but there are 20 year contracts established around 2014 with almost another decade to run. In the one I set up then, the generation tariff is roughly three times the export value, with the whole lot linked to RPI for the duration of the deal. They were done to encourage investment in equipment like that. Although the concept of electric storage water heating is mentioned, the other way of doing it is solar thermal, with a tiny bit of electric power for the control unit and pump. I had that installed well before solar PV, back in 2006, and it has been a useful investment over the years.
Very interesting as always. A couple of points:- 1) Are all batteries suitable for VPP? As I know battery EPS (Emergency Power Systems) when there is a power cut, vary enormously. Is it the same for VPP? 2) For home solar/battery installations should we should be looking at the winter months when there is less solar, longer nights, shorter days and home solar. Accepting that the summer months there will be an excess. I ask this as we are about to install 26 panels with a Powerwall 3. My specific concern is the winter months, will we be able to generate enough for our own consumption and will there always be a premium (at least in the foreseeable future) for winter solar?
Really ??.. what about the part about being paid for 50% of your generation as export ?.. that is now gone .. that was the deal we signed upto .. but we no longer ger have it.
Energy shifting brainstorming: residential community grids with automated selling/buying solar power; residential low tech gravity battery that lifts heavy items to a height (or underground); residential hydro storage with pumped water flowing down a water fall for a nice garden.
@@GaryDoesSolar I've learnt to distinguish start up investment seed rounds which have a perspective of mass commercialisation for profits. The average householder makes a lot of "unviable" ideas work well as there other many other benefits than corporate ROI. E.g. household solar isn't viable to large corporations, but works great for the average householder.
If you run the numbers on LFP batteries, they're already economical in places like California under NEM 3.0. The SimpliPhi batteries we use currently run about $0.07/kWh in amortized cost, plus $0.11/kWh in interest. Assumptions: 80% depth of discharge, and 8%/year interest, one cycle per day, 10,000 cycles, $2700 purchase price for 6.5 kWh nameplate capacity. Chinese batteries are even less expensive (assuming they really do last as many cycles as they promise).
Stop Press! here in the UK my feed-in tarrif has just been increased from £0.15 per kWh to £0.151 per kWh! A whole tenth of a penny whilst my usage fee has increased by about 2 pence. Someone is making a huge profit. Prime Minister - please take note.
Thanks Gary, I recently looked at installing a battery, but it would take 9 - 10 years to pay for itself, when you’re 65, that’s a long time, I’m not sure that I’d be able to remember how to control it in 9 years, let alone now 😀
Summer 24 in the uk octopus agile had quite a few days of negative prices during the midday dip. Great for getting washing done which we cant do in the middle if the night.
I have Octopus fixed export rate but at present the off peak rate (12p) actually means it is cheaper to charge my car off peak than from solar. If the export rate drops below the off peak rate I can just change when the car charges - I'm lucky enough to be retired so I can charge at any time.
Great video, Gary. Yesterday I had an Octopus surveyor reviewing my house to assess its suitability for a heat pump central heating conversion. Unfortunately, it would be way too much work. Instead, I intend to get a home battery to pair with my 3kw solar panels (10 years old). I'd really like one that supports a VPP for both monetary and environmental reasons. Fingers crossed.
We could do with battery storage capacity on par or even greater than an EV battery size. Bring on even cheaper battery storage. Thanks for talking about vpp. Very interesting
If it’s your costs then owning your own solar, battery and even a generator back up winds up cheaper. It also takes you off the grid for most of your demand. Just use the grid for a backup and the peak demands. Take care M.
Hi Gary,love your channel & the way you explain everything.Forgive me if this is already a thing but is there a way to reduce generation to avoid paying to export.Maybe tech that detects a full battery ?I realise that it’s not an issue in the UK yet but…
Thanks for your kind words, Ian. If your inverter has an export limit placed on it, it will automatically curtail solar generation so as not to export (via voltage adjustment).
With a large enough battery, much of the potential downside can be mitigated either through time-shifting or self-consumption (as the video mentions). And batteries are easy enough to add to a system later on.
@@jordansamuels2052 when I was getting my quotes I had a rough spreadsheet of my usage and approx. export amounts, load shifting to over night etc. to get any idea of payback times based on IOG tariff and the export @ 15p/kWh. I also did a secondary options in the event that export payments went out the door and self consumption was the better route. It went from 5.5 years to 6-7 years ROI assuming no other rate changes. I'm making the most of the higher export rate and low over night rate but it all comes down to what happens with the tariffs. Could go up, could go down, but either way I'll have cheaper bills and have added some value to the house even if it's only a few grand.
Once you get it installed, look to switch to a time of day tariff where you can get time periods (usually during the night), when the cost per unit of electricity is much cheaper. You can then charge your batteries and use it when the cost is higher. Octopus do a range of tariffs like this.
Looking at the updated October prices for the Octopus Flux tariff I notice despite the peak rate export going up, the standard and off peak actually went down. It feels like the trend is already going torwards targeting Exports at peak times in particular, not so much throughout the day.
I think the positive case still needs to be made for solar in the UK. Whilst payments may decrease: 1) Solar panels and batteries are cheaper than they have ever been. 2) The UK still needs to triple the amount of solar it has. 3) In addition to individual homes adding batteries to store their own power and participate in virtual power plants, electricity providers will increasingly locate batteries in neighbourhoods to buffer energy to them. California is building large amounts of short term battery storage to move their demand to the evening. 4) If regional pricing arrives, there will be areas that need solar more than others, which should help maintain the prices in those areas. 5) If you have an east or west-facing array, payments and self consumption can still be better as you help meet morning and evening demand without storage. 6) Self consumption is still very valuable, even if payments reduce.
The so-called standing charge for an electrical connection is forever increasing. I can see a time where, with residential batteries and solar PV along with negative unit pricing, that the standing charge will be all you'll pay for a basic 12kWhrs per day. I reckon it will get closer to a mobile phone contract with essentially some free daily electricity but for a fixed daily connection fee.
Another very interesting video Gary. Another thing that I have been thinking about recently is with the current drive to move to electric vehicles, I wonder how that will affect the overnight cheap tariffs? It seems to me that as more and more vehicles are charging in the quieter periods, that surplus energy will be soaked up (and thus increase the price) - I wonder how that will change the overall picture in the future.
Thank you Gary for your videos. I'm in Ontario, Canada and last I've heard, we can net meter on a 1:1 basis for one year and then it is reset. We are not permitted to sell energy, but rather bank our summer solar for the winter. For me, all these schemes where I live don't pay enough to justify the upfront expense. This happens. However, this VPP option is intriguing. Is this only through our local provider or can we hookup with a VPP somewhere else in the world? Thanks.
I'm trying to self consume all my PV , I heat my water via an eddi + heater in the winter as well as charging our EV's. Hopefully we will be able to do V2G soon from our ioniq 5.
In Australia the Energy Regulator wants to limit how much goes into the grid during the day as it can't cope with the excess that is getting greater. If they can control when you export to the grid you will get 5c but if they can't control it then you get 2.5c kw/hr and they are going to start charging people a yearly fee for exporting during the day. They want you to export at night from your solar battery storage. Currently they pay your export 5c kw/hr but you import it back at about 42c. I have 2 Tesla 2 Power Wall Battery's with 2 x 5kw panels facing north and west and by midday, they are charged.
I'm in Massachusetts, USA and we still have 100% net metering for all homes with a 10kw cap and 2MW roll over. We never get paid, but the grid is essentially my 2MW battery. IMHO the utility companies will eventually learn they're in the storage/offsetting business the easy way or the hard way. If they don't invest in batteries, homes will be forced to and that just further offsets the grid's customer demand. MA voted to increase the cap from 10kw to 25kw for residential with net metering so I'm guessing our duck curve isn't that bad. The downside of the MA plan is $0.34/kw fixed rate all day. If you don't have solar you really get screwed on your electricity costs.
so you want someone to invest in batteries/storages and you will profit from it? One kwh out at daytime, one kwh in at night, zero to pay and let this storage be paid by everybody else? Awesome plan.
@@antontsau exactly. When the power company charges me ~2x the national average I want them spending it on storage instead of generation. If they invest in generation they'll be forced to increase price to ~3x to 4x; at which point it'll be cheaper for me to pay for my own storage instead of buying their electricity. This is basically what is happening in CA.
@@scottbalak7123 its the reason why you pay twice more - you pay for all these storages, transmission lines and so on instead of generation. More green bs, more batteries - higher the price. And you want net metering means free use of these storages. Plan reliable as Swiss watch.
@@markeh1971 Already have 10kw storage which supports A phase power & light reconfigured switch board so only inductive loads on B phase also have solar hw . Depending on this sun tax I may split a string off array and run second Inverter and storage for B phase as even with self consumption and battery charging still export about 20kw per day
Thank you so much for your valuable content. I have a general question on the setup of the solar system (home) - In a normal setup with solar panels and converter, during the hours they produce good energy to use, which element or intelligence in the system will give priority to the usage of available solar produced energy rather than the grid? I mean both networks (solar and grid) are interconnected at the final stage so we may use energy still from available grid power (partly) rather than the solar one which is a pity.
You’re most welcome 😀👍🏻 Worth watching the second part of this video which explains the order in which generated energy is dealt with: ruclips.net/video/E4-Lzc8khvU/видео.htmlsi=Lz9zmc-UemhFt6YS
The "Grid" is a more complicated thing than is usually explained. You will not only be constrained by the countrywide or regional demand, but also by local demand back to the transformer at the end of the street. The "Grid" may be perfectly fine, but local arm of your supply may be over supplied by solar panels just in your street. In my locality I can see from the DNO heat map that the supply from my local transformer is coloured orange "near capacity" and many other nearby streets are coloured red - at capacity. Even with home batteries the local arm of the network back to the transformer could be overwhelmed on a summer day when demand is low and all batteries are full. Hence the export limits the DNO applies. The answer of course is as you say to increase demand at certain times. Eventually we may even be asked/paid to curtail our solar export for short periods (eq turn off your solar inverter). I can't see the DNO paying to upgrade the network to deal with power which is not required. Of course all these things are just technological hurdles to be overcome and not a reason the dismiss local power generation.
In california the export value is just pennies per unit (the wholesale rate); the utility gets all its money out of you for deliverance charges. Our solar saving is from avoiding the highest pricing tiers because we have an electrict hot tub.
What percentage of your 49.9K subscribers are in the USA? I have a Tesla Energy solar array plus one Powerwall battery plus a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. Some months I have a small monthly electric bill, some zero billing, and a small check from Eversource for the excess generation sent back to the grid through my PPA program.
Which State? I'm familiar with CA - particularly Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) where we pay approx $0.13 per kWhr. This is because the city does not have PG&E electricity. It's a bargain, but a 'fly over' (on google satellite images) will show very few solar PV installs. At 13 cents for import it's honestly not worth it - especially with the tariff-inflationary panel prices.
Energy shifting (storage) makes a lot of sense. If everyone who has solar generation also has a storage battery, the grid will be easier to manage and the large energy companies will have less need to build storage systems themselves. This also decentralises power generation and reduces the need to upgrade the grid for an all electric future.
The grid requires massive upgrading/extending because of the green energy (to reduce C02) push with all the solar/wind farms being peppered around your state. This guarantees power pricing increases as that grid system/maintenance is a considerable part of the cost/Kwh you pay for. If they went nuclear and battery storage on decommissioned coal fired power stations sites then no extension of the grid network is required.
Exactly. Maybe there'll be a brief period where commercial BESS wants our excess solar but eventually commercial solar/wind will provide all the BESS requirements. By then I hope we'll be able to buy 50kWh of batteries for a couple of thousand.
Battery prices fell by 80-90% in the past 10 years and it continues to fall each year. Wait till a good deal comes along and may be surprised at the value.
@@mb-3faze Some folk are repurposing EV batteries for a fraction of the price of a typical standalone - big kWh for cheap. I wonder if we'll see more of that in the future as used packs become plentiful.
Excellent and informative video as always Gary. I guess this mean I no longer need to look into getting a G99 form completed as that would almost double the amount of solar production!!
Despite the somewhat negative outlook, it still makes sense to get as much PV on your roof as practicable. Gary points out a number of ways that excess power can be used, and having a G99 capable connection (>3.68kW) will be useful for some time and it usually doesn't cost much
In Texas we get 16% of cost. ... when our solar was installed it was 75%. This means you have to install batteries that equal to 150% of max daily usage to avoid still paying for imported electricity. For us we need 150kw batteries. We currently have 75kw. And still pay about $60 a month in high demand times. If you look at kw cost whole sale the energy companies pay solar 25% of this, in essence the still it.
It’s only a year since Octopus put export rates up to 15p, from 4.1p. Until then it was all self-consumption for me. Now it’s so much easier, not looking for somewhere to dump the power on a sunny day. Long may it last!
Indeed! My Powerwalls mean I can timeshift my consumption to overnight rates at 7p/kWh, and export solar during the day at 15p! In summer I make money. Gary's channel is one that helped me set this up - many thanks!
Here in the Netherlands I have to pay 11 eurocent per kwh i export to the grid. So my 9kw system will become expensive in summer when our net metering ends at the end of next year
There will be Battery-as-a-Service widely available in The Netherlands by the end of 2025. You will be able to have 100% self consumption with the battery system with less monthly costs you pay now as utility fees.
Big business doesn't like little people. Currently planning a new build here in the UK with ground source heat/cooling, 45m² of solar panels with battery storage, well & septic tank/field. Cost will be around £70k top. I'll not recoup the cost at current rates but that's not a major factor in my plans. If sand batteries were more advanced, I'd look in that direction rather than GSHP but they're at least 5 years out.
The solution to the duck curve is straightforward but ambitious. The grid has good reason to ramp up power usage during peak solar hours. Install EV slow chargers by the tens of thousands at workplaces and other all day parking lots, on the understanding that the power is free but only during negative pricing hours over lunchtime. Plug and pray. Most days, you'll get a full charge by mid afternoon. Some days, you'll get a partial charge, but probably still enough to get through to the following day. Bonus points if your EV supports V2H. Charge to full-ish at the parking lot near work daily and use some of that power to run your home when you get home. That'll give the duck a hunched look if it takes off.
I am not surprised. They basically do not want customers becoming the generators that they pay rather than we pay them. Commercial generators also do not want the domestic production competition. On the whole I think more in terms of wanting to be self sufficient, effectively off grid, if not actually, than I think about the money back for selling extra surplus generation. All these speculative ideas of 'pay back' are a nonsense as the future can change at the drop of a hat. Lots of people do it and there will be lower prices paid if anything. My main use in high generation middle of the day I aim to become to run Air con as I hate the heat, heatwaves, summer hot times. I would never pay for the power to do that though if no table to use my own being mean and frugal. lol. Being retired I could load use to the middle of the day like washing and baking bread etc. But one step at a time, booking solar install now.
Increasing battery capacity is not the only solution. I have solar and batteries. A home assistant automation make sure to charge the batteries during the hours of cheapest grid price (avoiding cheap export), and discharge them into the grid during peak pricing. You can be at noon with the batteries still empty, by preventing them to charge earlier.
@samueladitya1729 home assistant is indeed trading automatically based on real time pricing. There's no manual interaction. There's indeed a reserve for blackouts even if they are unusual over here. I can also plug my EV V2L output into the generator input of the inverter and fill up the home batteries
@@GaryDoesSolar I've mined well over the cost of the mining equipment in a year and am in profits now with the market about to reverse. So it's been good for me.
@@djhowie38interesting to see your thoughts on this and Gary’s. Correct me if this or my maths is wrong. btc is worth £48k. Average single S19 home machine operates at about 3kwh but only 141 hash rate? The more powerful s21 water cooled miner is 5.36kwh running at 335 hash rate and makes for more economical mining. It would take 102,000 hours to mine a btc or 4,250 days or 11.65 years. Thats 546,729 kWh which is about 47,000 kWh a year. Which at current buy rates in UK (0.14p) would be £6.5k per year versus the generating btc of £48k/11.65 = £4,100k (assuming static btc price). So even if you could generate 47,000 kWh a year you would be £2.4K better off not mining bitcoin but instead selling to the grid?
Have you ever done, or considered recently doing a vid on the future of public solar? What I mean is, is it worth waiting for some new tech to arrive? I know at some time you've got to stop waiting and just accept what you have may be out of date quite quickly, but it's something we have to consider. Thanks for the vids, i'm still ploughing through them all, have subscribed and liked.
Thanks for your kind words about my videos. Do you mean the latest and greatest with solar panels? I have a video on that coming soon. Otherwise, what do you mean by "public solar"? Thank, Gary
You can imagine my shock that governments across the world would encourage and tempt people to invest heavily up front with decent returns, before screwing everyone once enough suckers have bought in. Some would call that a scam.
I'm in the UK and installed a 7.5kWp solar system 18 months ago that cost £7.5k. I have no batteries and one EV. I'm on the Octopus Flux tariff. So far I've saved £4.6k. I still charge my EV and use the heavy duty electrical appliances in the middle of the night. Storage batteries didn't make financial or environmental sense for my situation and I intend to get a heat pump next and then another EV before investing in storage batteries.
The government should stop incentivising EVs, which are unpopular, and incentivise using batteries to flatten the duck curve. This would give us more reliable electricity, not less.
I used the Tesla Energy Plan VPP through Octopus (11p import & export). It was easy & cheap, sadly Tesla pulled it a few years ago, probably in preparation for them to become an energy provider which hasn’t happen yet.
@stuartburns8657 I'm sorry I wasn't clear. I was referring to those stearing the national grids. They promised cheaper electricity. I suppose they were right about the middle of the day. But on the whole, they either didn't do the math or were lying 🤷♂️
solar export reduces domestic demand - that should be a primary reason to install it. and that is still important from a national grid perspective as it’ll factor into new power station planning and building. I’m happy to have a (small) array locked into to the original FIT tariff for another 12 years though. index linked too ;)
@@Biggest-dh1vr I’m off ‘deemed export’ as I added more solar so I am currently getting 15p for everything I export. But you’d be crazy to get off the generation part of FIT - they can be safely separated. early FIT is 71p/kwh and goes up with inflation
Hey Gary, I’m a solar salesman in Southern California. I have a few customers that had old systems that weren’t producing anywhere near what they needed giving them a $3,000 to ,$4000 true-up bill. We added 120% offset and 2-3 Tesla Powerwalls. And made sure settings are right, but now they are calling me with $300 powerbills still! I understand NEM 3.0 sucks but how on earth do people with more solar and enough storage have such high bills, I feel like there is something missing now. I want to help them out but I thought the batteries would help them.
Really good series of video. Gary has a really nice way of explaining sometimes quite complex concepts. After being let down badly by two "expert" MCS qualified installers and having to wrangle back my deposit I installed my own 4kw system. DNO notified and fine, but no SEG payments for export as it's not a MCS installed system. But, come the day, when prices go negative more often, I wonder if the DNO will start recognising my exports and start charging for it. Time to start investigating export limitation methods I think.
@@fells6323 I've approached them a few times over the 18 months on this and the answer has always been "no" or "maybe flexiorb". Not sure what would happen if I have a MCS installed battery alongside my PV solar though. All seems a bit odd/scammy given I've got a G98 type tested device feeding the grid and were the DNO seems happy with this.
I got in late in solar in Calif unfortunately but its still well worth it under NEM3. Much like how 1:1 metering was effectively a subsidy, your Battery exports rate (Avoided Cost Calculator) get locked in at the rate you interconnect under for 9 years, if you join within first 5 years of NEM3/NBT. Basically, while the power companies got together to kill pure residential grid tie solar (as they had enough locked in for their purposes) there was an effort to assure a payback period with VPP/Export double dipping for early NEM3 adopters. These rates get revised every 2 years so its a clear attempt at trying to continue to drive battery manufacturing & hope the residential battery side matures and is streamlined/scaled to the point where the economics are solid enough with just the tax rebate. In Cali you can get basically 1k+300 with VPP off a 13.5kwh battery just from two months of exports in august and September. $13k battery installed, $9K~ after tax rebate. So payback is still reasonable.
We have the same issue in the Netherlands. The energy providers are doing everything to push people to use our own power and even stimulate turning off solar panels.
Even with all those optimizations of load shifting and self consumption, You're still going to be exporting in the summer and importing in the winter. There's no way around that because we don't have any long term energy storage. To really solve these problems, it requires. A new smart grid which nobody is talking about yet
50 years ago in Solar energy the thought and concern was how to store excess energy.. Ie do you have a giant hill to pump water uphill to turn a water turbine generator at night? Do you have magical batteries that are safe and cost nothing and last forever? Or do you live in a cold climate and build a house with giant Boulders in the basement to store excess heat? Or do you build a giant water tank to store heat in the water in winter and chill the water in the summer for air conditioning? Or do you have magic rocks with a phase change to store heat? Or build a windmill and use its mechanical energy to lift up 200 engine blocks a city block high so store energy for turning a generator at night? College solar energy stuff from 50 years ago.
I invested in a solar and seperately wind fund, both of which are paying between 8 and 10% anually, they more than cover my electric bill, kind of price linked too but def contains risk as a strategy it works at the moment and gets by a lot of the issues you highlighted
Solar power is needed during peak demand ( 3 pm to 7 pm ). Not when ever people decide to face the panels at the sun, usually lunch time. Go outside and look at where the sun is shining on your house at 5 pm. Put your panels there, no matter what the installation companies tell you.
@@GaryDoesSolar At my house, the best is on a vertical wall facing west. Most installers won't do it. At my off grid shop, I have panels on a rolling cart , roughly 60 % vertical and 40 facing directly up. After lunch I turn it from east to west.
In Australia we get a Government incentive to put on Solar, it’s roughly 40% of the total cost. We used to get .48c a KW to export back. Over the years it’s now reduced to .06c per KW but now we are capped at 5kw per hour. Unfortunately the tariff between 7am to 7pm is the same as between 7pm to 7am. So my house uses roughly 11.5kw per day but my Solar produces on average 60kw per day. I know it’s not much but I’m still being charged $45 a month. The governments around the world want net zero but I’m wasting 48.5kw a day. Good old Government.
I paid just over $17,600 for 6kw of Solar Panels and a Solar Hot Water system to replace my Gas Hot water system, it took me just under 5 years to recover the cost of the two systems as my Gas bill was slightly over $274 a quarter and my Electric was almost $300 a Quarter, which meant I saved $2276 a year and I got back from my Energy Company a further $2000 a year from selling my solar credits, which meant I was saving $4276 a year. I know for a fact that had I not gone Solar, I would be paying far more than the $2276 I was paying 12 years ago. I was never after making money, I only wanted to remove my Electric bill, I never dreamt that I would make money as well as removing the Gas and Electric bill entirely :) If they stop paying me for my credits, I won't give a damn as I have not only made a huge profit, but also saved all that money I would have paid for my Electrics and Gas and so have more than enough money to buy a 13.5kw Battery bank that I will have connected to my Solar and Home and disconnect from the grid entirely, like I did with the Gas.
For those in the UK who do wish to save hundreds on expanding your battery bank. I have a few Pylontech US5000 batteries and fully agree what Gary says that decent solar export rates during the day will soon be a thing of the past, so been looking to expand my bank so can load shift at will. Best online price for above currently £1099 inc VAT and free del. However contacted them asking about the free uk VAT on batteries. They told me they can sell me the batteries as a DIY install, but then sub contract me to install them for 4% saving me 16% from the normal 20% VAT. That makes them $175 cheaper at £923 each.
The company I'm currently on buys at 0.022 cents per kw but sells back at 16.8. To combat this, I limit export by choosing strategic times to charge the EV. Future moving plans are to setup a different system that runs 100% off solar and only pulls from grid on emergency basis. Properly sized that would be almost never.
Where do I find what VPP offers are available in the UK? A google search showed only Intelligent Octopus (which is just a variable tariff as far as I know) and some marketing tariff for Tesla vehicles which still do not seem to support V2G.
In addition to Octopus Energy, Tesla is expected to launch as an energy provider in the UK next year, and some of their tariffs are expected to include VPP capability. GivEnergy offer a VPP service for their battery products called give back. GivEnergy and SolarEdge also offer a VPP service for their battery products.
Very informative video as ever which leads me to a question you or someone will hopefully be able to answer. I have 2 separate solar pv systems at my property, 1 with a hybrid inverter with max 25kw of puredrive batteries and another with a string 3.6kw inverter. Would it be possible to change the string inverter to a hybrid inverter so i can load up with more batteries, i only have 1 supply to the house, or can i only have 1 hybrid inverter in the system?
The problem with almost every strategy for using the generating peak when it is happening is you have to be at home in the middle of the day to do it. Most of us are at work along with the vehicle that takes us there.
i wish we had octopus in northern ireland but our market is bad.. I cant even get a smart meter fitted. it's so stupid. they had to fit a new export meter for my solar install in August but they don't do smart meters at all...
I saw last night on TV where if you have solar your insurance company might drop you. Utility companies are now putting an extra fee on your electric bill if it goes to low due to you using solar. And we are supposed to go green. What a screwed up world we live in anymore.
Funny how UK demand has gone down significantly 2010 - 2023 yet we’re paying ever more for energy. You might say shareholder dividends, profits and taxes upon are more significant than wholesale energy prices!
In Denmark where I live, there have been a lot of days with negative prices, and given I don’t yet have a battery, I have regularly been charged for my export.. so this is very real and will only get worse.. this is killing the economics of my solar system - hoping to get a battery soon.. 😅😅😅 9:55
@@GaryDoesSolar oh yes - all our windmills and solar is not doing anything good for that part. And our tariffs and tax’s are only going one way.. 👆👆👆 Also our electricity providers basically only have fixed prices (which are insanely expensive) or spot prices. Nothing in between - how octopus operate and can offer so many different options I have no clue. 🧐
“The only constant in life is change” building in personal home flexibility and being able to adapt strategies when tariffs inevitably change is key. Good video giving people a heads up that assumptions in a cost case naturally won’t stay the same over a period (which can be positive and negative to outcomes) 👍
I do think people being mis-sold solar-only systems is going to be a thing. Even with good workmanship and parts, solar installers are not economists and many of the forecasts included in quotes have absurd assumptions baked in.
@@afaulconbridge the models are certainly complex. The basic illustrations given in quotes need to be taken with a pinch of salt. You need to constantly monitor what is going on and the best tariff to optimise… a lot of people won’t want that hassle and will get annoyed it’s not working out for them when the energy companies change the goalposts
![Eminem - Fuel (feat. JID) [Official Lyric Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/t5H_CewqpKA/mqdefault.jpg)
I used Gary's code when I switched to Octopus. Plenty of other RUclipsrs were asking for it, but his channel is a clear stand out for its technical utility and the effort he's put into helping people navigate the transition to electricity. It's far from the same old opinion and personal anecdote typical of RUclipsrs - Gary is on a par with Heat Geek from the heat pump world. Massive respect and thanks.
Wow - thank you, Paul 😀😀😀
Totally Agree with this - Gary has totally guided me through my solar instal and Heat Geek I have used for my heat pump for exactly the same reason - great simple education reduces the risk when installing these new technologies.
Thank you Ross 😀
I’m in Calif, the fees added to my electric bill are 68% of the total bill. So 32% of my bill is actually for the power I use.. Ten years ago my power bill was approx $75. Today it’s approx $300 and I’m not using more power. My point is that adding Solar and batteries and going off grid completely makes a lot of sense now. I can avoid these fees and cost of the power and see a pretty fast ROI. Batteries is the key.
Or do a solar + battery import-only system. The utility just sees a reduction in load and you maintain the redundancy and convenience of a grid connection.
@@bluezcluez315 but I’d still have the fees!! 💰
@@bluezcluez315but then he'd still have the fees.
@@bluezcluez315, except there are fees regardless of what you use.
Call and ask to fully disconnect from the grid. See how that goes.
Very informative. I now understand the “duck curve” and understand why I should recharge my EV during the day when I’m producing the most electricity. Thanks.
Great strategy 👍🏻
So I paid about $12,000 for all of my solar equipment and batteries. Installed it myself. I did market research and created an invoice for about $24,000 for total installed cost and took the 30% tax credit on that! 😂 Then I said screw you to the local electric utilities and I said screw you to my local building department and I did not get a permit and I do not have an interconnection agreement. My system is completely hidden from view. I have set my system up in self consumption mode, with zero export to the grid. Operating for almost 2 years now and no one has detected my system. It saves me at least $2500 per year and my payback period comes out to less than three years. I really enjoy operating under the radar and screw them all!
Hi, they are in business to sell YOU power.
The setup you have is called selfish solar, you keep it for your use.
This is what they drive you to with fees on your bill.
Fill you battery, charge your car and heat and cool. Your home and heat your water.
Sounds good to me.
Take care M.
if you are getting away with something... Make it into a popular comment to end it ?
Crikey!
@boblatkey7160 you didn't do that. If you really know electric and could install it correctly, then thats one thing, but admitting to tax fraud on a public forum is just beyond stupid.
@@davidbreeden9070 Well I hate to pop your bubble when calling someone stupid, but the IRS is not monitoring comments on RUclips! 😂😂😂🖕🖕 That is absolutely hilarious to assume so. I know hundreds of people who have fudged their numbers for the tax return! You do not get audited unless you do something absolutely dumb. I also know plenty of people who have reroofed their entire house and charged all of it toward the 30% solar tax credit and have had no issues at all. I am an electrician and have been installing solar systems since the mid 1990s. Thank you
Im off-grid, 9.5kw solar ground mounted x2 growatt 5000watt inverter's with 20kwh battery storage,.
Best money ever spent..
Are you in the UK?
How do you manage in the winter?
@@stuartburns8657 could charge batteries with a bio gas generator
Nice!
Here in rural Victoria Australia I have 35kw pv panels, 18kw battery, all electric house, tesla ev. We used to get 11c kw export - next week that is dropping to a min of 2c if i dont export in peak times - 8c/kw at peak. I need to find something to use up my generated power. I live in an area that doesnt have town water and have a brackish well. Looking at spending another $10k in a small reverse ossmosis plant capable of treating 2000lt a day to end my water uncertainty. To put a value on water if i run out it costs me $500 for 20000 lt trucked in, so the daily top up using morning solar could be valued at $50 - far better than the 2c/kw feed in tarrif available. And what would i do with all that water - im building a brewery.
I can charge my Tesla while we having a beer. Do you offer Airbnb? 😊
@@raymondschembri5042 Loch Sport on the Gippsland Lakes and yes should have brewery and Tiny House AirBNB open this summer (subject to liquor licencing)
Hi, once you have the solar you have the power.
This is why they hare you having it, but it is the best option.
The power companies don’t like it.
Take care and have your own solar. M.
Sounds like a dream come true
Wow - I’d love to hear how it all goes! 😀
Last year we put in 6kW of Solar and 24kWh of batteries (in the UK). It has reduced our total electricity bill from £2,700 to £412 - which is not unexpected. However, looking at the data, 75% of that saving has come from the batteries, buying low cost power overnight and using it during the day / evening. 20% from the power generated by the panels reducing the amount imported overnight and 5% from the £0.15 export tariff.
It's worth noting, particularly for people who cannot fit solar panels, that you can achieve a significant saving by just installing batteries and not bothering with the solar! I love having the solar, just to give a bit of self sufficiency and independence from the utilities - but financially it was not as worthwhile as batteries alone.
That’s great - thanks for sharing, Simon 👍🏻
Total system cost?
@@QH96 Cost are always changing so what he paid then is different to what he would pay now
Now I really find the OP's comment interesting. People like him appear to be helping shift the demand around. It's an interesting case of things actually getting sorted out by the market.
What is the life span of the batteries. Are you factoring in the cost of eventually having to replace them
Can’t thank you enough for these videos Gary.
I’m in the process of nearly doubling my solar install, and getting a battery system with backup gateway. I’m in rural Mayo in Ireland. Lots of storms, and after next October my export tariff drops from 29.5c to 19c, and 3 months ago it was 34c. Seems Ireland is cutting the export rates also.
With the storms and power cuts it all just makes sense. Shame Ireland is so expensive for systems. We don’t even have access to the Tesla Powerwalls, and the closest equivalent is the SigEnergy system. Which costs more than the Tesla does in the UK.
You’re most welcome - really happy to hear my videos have been useful 😀 Hopefully prices will come down and you’ll get greater access to products before long!
NEM 1.0 was very very generous and it wasn't at all surprising that it was revised in the manner of NEM 2.0 and 3.0
All part of a plan?
NEM 2.0 seemed more reasonable and beneficial to customers. NEM 3.0 not so much. NEM 1.0 was an incentive to get solar adoption and not sustainable.
Gary, this is an excellent video to help someone like myself better understand the details of net metering!
Thank you for this really great feedback! ❤️👍🏻
I am in UK with the old FIT contract where they pay me a deemed 50% export at 7p for the next 10 years (I’ve had it for 10 years already so half way through the contract). So they pay me for what I generate and pay me to export even if I self consume all I generate. Thus I got a battery to cover the peak evening use. I guess this is why they stopped the FIT contracts. 😁
The FiT scheme in the UK was designed to kick-start the consumer market, and it did exactly that 🚀
@johnpeters7003 ..if you have a smart meter that 50% payment is about to stop .. you will ve paid on metered export from now on.. check it out.
And no doubt it will use retail price index (RPI) for the rates, with the generation tariff being 21.49p/kWh. The “deemed export” was set up when export meters were generally not available domestically, but modern SMART ones, like the one my supplier has installed, can do that.
I didnt understand why so many US providers were slashing their buy back rates. Now I do, so awesome insight. The solution is simple: grids should re-focus incentives on home batteries.
Thank you, and I agree - the focus changes going forward...
Another great video Gary ,Q. Can you recommend a good VPP in the Uk ? Cheers John .
I had the same question, so did a little research and found the following which may be helpful to you.
"Energy Companies Offering VPP Programs
Octopus Energy is a prominent company offering a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program in the UK. Their Intelligent Octopus tariff allows customers to manage their energy use smartly, including exporting surplus solar energy."
As a side note, I am already an Octopus customer (they are a very good company from my personal experience) and will be getting solar panels + battery storage so will be looking at their VPP program definitely.
Aussie here, initial install was 18 S6 Sunpower panels and a Powerwall 2, just signed up for another 10 panels and a second PW2. Usage tariff is 40 cents, feed in is 6 cents.
We have an energy retailer who has dynamic FIT, and consumption tariff is 25% off, allowing consumers to "play the market" by buying and selling energy.
Storage is the key (after self consumption) to minimising costs while maximising returns.
Final state will see the use of automation to shift charging to the centre of the peak, and forcing export during peak demand while still meeting household needs.
Our ROI on initial install was 6 years, with the additional infrastructure that number has blown out to 8 years, however, moving to the company with dynamic FIT may allow that period to reduce
Yeah, just like life in general - we have to adapt in the best way we can to changing circumstances…
Get a variable tariff and dump the power between 4-8pm you will get 40p+ per kwh your ROI will be maximum 5 years with average energy consumption, if your consumption is high it will be 4 years or less, also get a decent capacity battery
Yeah, good strategy 👍🏻
@GaryDoesSolar It's a good strategy to maximise ROI, but it's also likely to be the first target. There was talk about a year ago of stopping arbitrage by domestic customers and I'm surprised it's still allowed. I reckon the export price will be set at a percentage of your average import price over the previous couple of days.
In CA and on Nem 2. We have solar and batteries. We have no net annual electrical cost. If we had to buy power it would be around 450 per month. So the pay back period was around 8 years in 2020 when we installed. With the new rate increases it look like 6 years. We are grandfathered in to NEM 2 for 20 years.
We also sell power back to grid at high rates as part of Tesla’s virtual power plant program. We receive a check for between 300-500 dollars a year for the power.
Thank you for another very clear video. It's been clear for some time that a "day of reckoning" would arrive where the grid value of exports would negative. But it is still very unclear to me how we will collectively manage it.
I have a Tesla Powerwall 2 and it is generally excellent, but not the most flexible in terms of programming to match, for example, Agile tariffs. Perhaps you could take a look at some battery systems and compare them from teh point of view of programmability. Just a suggestion.
Best wishes: Michael
Here in NSW Australia, negative pricing is an opt in at the moment but mandatory from July 2025. Its complicated but basically you will be able to export xxkWh/ month but above that threashold you will pay/kWh. I'm already prepared an an automatic program runs to stop exports when the price is -ve. Not easy to set up for the average punter to set up, but I think the market will start offering addons to throttle your inverter in the future.
@@PowerOn- Yes, I think your comment "the market will start offering addons to throttle your inverter in the future" is correct.
How the world has changed!
Best wishes: M
I agree that the Powerwall software is really limited. I can't even set up a schedule that is self-powered (use the batteries to store excess solar) in summer and time-based (fill up the batteries with cheap power overnight) in winter… which seems such an obvious thing for users to want to do.
@@markiliff I agree it's not very flexible but we are able to do what you described. We use "Self-Powered" in summer and go off grid for between 3 and 4 months. We then switch to time-based control. I have to cheat slightly to get this to work.
At the moment (in the UK/September 2024) the export price is 15 p/kWh and the buy price is 7p/kWh for 6 hours at night, otherwise 24 p/kWh. So it fills the battery at night but then exports as much solar as it can. Soon I will switch to telling it that export price is lower and then it will use teh available solar to re-charge the battery and keep us of full-price electricity for longer.
@@michaeldepodesta001 Sounds good. It's the _have to cheat slightly_ that disappoints me.
In my case the schedule will automatically switch from _no cheap period_ in summer to _cheap hours 00.30-07.30_ in winter, but I still have to switch between time-based and self-powered manually - pretty dumb. Oh, and schedules can only start on the 1st of a month.
Hi Gary, great presentation. I just like to point out that the issue with VPP is that the companies that control the battery have unfretted access to your battery. It is known that they have rundown the battery so many times and have diminished the battery life significantly. Generally, the battery life is about 6000 cycles. VPP can use this very frequently for their benefit and reduce the life by 25% or more. However, in Australia there is a provider Amber Electrics, that pay you whole sale prices and makes sure one does not export when whole sale prices are negative during the mid day. They also give the user very high control of the battery so that the owner can override any Amber company settings. It also provides the option for owners to export much higher quantum of energy into the grid at peak periods where 1kWhr can be as high as 1A$/kWhr.
So as you said the only way forward is going to be for home owners to have a battery system complementing the Solar panels.
Thank you for the great feedback! And yes, I would expect VPP operators not to abuse customers' home batteries. That said, if you think about EV batteries and how they are used day in day out, I would expect modern home batteries to also handle 2-3 cycles a day (remembering that 1 cycle is a full-charge/discharge)... Sounds like Amber is doing the right thing for their customers!
Here in Canada, if you check the electricity bill there are different fees/tariffs on the electricity bill so as more users switch to solar etc you will see these fees increase as elec companies try for a cash grab, they are not only making money on producing electricity but also on reselling YOURS. The only way to beat them is to get battery backup systems and remove yourself from the grid completely. If you don't you will still pay monthly fees. I realize this will have a high setup cost but over a long term period it will be beneficial
I believe there will be significant benefit to EVs becoming capable of bi-directional charging...
I worry for the day when they realize all those taxes they're collecting on electricity have dried up and resort to charging people yearly solar licensing fees to have solar installed at all to compensate themselves for what they perceive as lost revenue. Naturally those fees will be going up every year at their whim.
Thanks for this, Gary. Brilliant as always.
Cheers Jean 😀😀
I can understand that energy providers are increasingly struggling with the amount of renewables feeding into the Grid. However, this was to be expected. People were being asked to install Solar, companies were being told (and paid) to install Wind Turbines. The energy companies "forgot" to do their part, which is increasing grid capacity and installing batteries and other storage facilities.
What is happening now, around the Globe, is mostly going to slow down or even stop people investing in Solar. This will mitigate the issue of Grid stability, but it will also mean we move further away from reaching the goals for reducing emissions. I can already hear all the complaints from Governments and energy providers in the future.
Homeowners have done their part, we have invested time and money, while the Grid operators have done far too little to prepare the Grid for an exponential increase in volatile renewables. All this has achieved is more resentment towards "green energy" and more distrust in energy providers and governments.
I have to agree, Roland. Energy companies should have carried out proper projections…
My gosh, can you imagine companies not making investments that lose money? Why is it that you expect there to be grid storage? If it makes sense, folks would be investing in distributed batteries just like roof top solar. In practice, with current prices, batteries make sense for EVs but not for grid scale storage. The early adopters of solar are well off folks being subsidized by less well off rate payers.
@@richdobbs6595
Most solar Installations come with Batteries, so that distributed storage is already a thing. Where batteries and hydrogen plants are mostly lacking is for wind energy, at least here in Germany.
@@rolandrohde You are just plain wrong. Most grid tied solar systems built in the last decade don't have batteries. Maybe you are influenced that since feed in tariffs have been cut, those that have been built quite recently are now having batteries.
@@richdobbs6595
Or maybe it differs by country?
Great informative videos Gary!
Export limitation is key in my opinion (While you can!) with battery storage.
The grid network is influenced heavily by the utility companies, and restrictions to generation over and above the current 3.6 kW/16 amps per phase limit (even with export limitation activated) will soon apply in order to protect the utility companies interests!
Oversizing your array with current module costs at an all time low is Golden in my opinion. do not factor export benefits as your decision deal maker or breaker!
DO NOT get locked up by tantalising deals offered by the big utility companies, lots of these are flawed and will come back to bite you!
Especially when you try to contact them when the system needs attention!
Try and become as self-sufficient as you can, while you have the opportunity...
Finally do not buy cheap battery storage products, again it will come back to bite you!
Thank you and great advice! 👍🏻
Here in NSW Australia, the network operator will charge for exports over a given monthly threashold. This is currently an 'opt in', but will be mandatory from July 2025. As it is a network charge it's passed through regardless of your retailer, ie you will have no choice. Given the UK has significant wind resources you will rapidly join the negative pricing club somehow. Don't panic, just be prepared and follow the advice Gary has given. One aspect that Gary has not covered is 'self curtailment'. Whilst this is a last resort it will be necessary to avoid the costs of exporting whilst the price is -ve. It is possible to do this with almost all inverters but you do need some signal available to do this and currently not easy for the average joe to sort out.
The alternative to self curtailment is always the extension cord to your neighbour's :)
At over 1km that would be a long extension cord😂@@mb-3faze
Around 14, you mentioned what might happen in a couple of years. A lot has changed over recent years, but there are 20 year contracts established around 2014 with almost another decade to run. In the one I set up then, the generation tariff is roughly three times the export value, with the whole lot linked to RPI for the duration of the deal. They were done to encourage investment in equipment like that.
Although the concept of electric storage water heating is mentioned, the other way of doing it is solar thermal, with a tiny bit of electric power for the control unit and pump. I had that installed well before solar PV, back in 2006, and it has been a useful investment over the years.
Cannot do it .... installed it myself, so saved about 3k plus... i do export to grid but get nothing for it.. so installing more batterys..
Yeah, larger battery capacity is the way, I reckon!
@@GaryDoesSolar immersion diverter is the cheapest way to store energy if you have a hot water tank
Very interesting as always. A couple of points:-
1) Are all batteries suitable for VPP? As I know battery EPS (Emergency Power Systems) when there is a power cut, vary enormously. Is it the same for VPP?
2) For home solar/battery installations should we should be looking at the winter months when there is less solar, longer nights, shorter days and home solar. Accepting that the summer months there will be an excess.
I ask this as we are about to install 26 panels with a Powerwall 3. My specific concern is the winter months, will we be able to generate enough for our own consumption and will there always be a premium (at least in the foreseeable future) for winter solar?
They agreed to pay my export FIT for 25 years following installation of my solar panels. If they welch on this deal I’ll be extremely cross.
And terribly vexed.
A deal’s a deal.
Really ??.. what about the part about being paid for 50% of your generation as export ?.. that is now gone .. that was the deal we signed upto .. but we no longer ger have it.
Not as cross as companies like Aviva who own many rent a roof systems.
@@gwenshannon3797 Wow - just did a bit of digging on that... forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6175592/free-solar-panels-the-fall-out
Energy shifting brainstorming:
residential community grids with automated selling/buying solar power;
residential low tech gravity battery that lifts heavy items to a height (or underground);
residential hydro storage with pumped water flowing down a water fall for a nice garden.
I like your thinking. Apparently though, gravity batteries are quite inefficient for some reason? I’ll need to look into that….
@@GaryDoesSolar I've learnt to distinguish start up investment seed rounds which have a perspective of mass commercialisation for profits. The average householder makes a lot of "unviable" ideas work well as there other many other benefits than corporate ROI. E.g. household solar isn't viable to large corporations, but works great for the average householder.
Batteries and an ev is the key
Both will help a lot! 👍🏻
@@dirkdiggler69 storage radiators too.
If you run the numbers on LFP batteries, they're already economical in places like California under NEM 3.0. The SimpliPhi batteries we use currently run about $0.07/kWh in amortized cost, plus $0.11/kWh in interest. Assumptions: 80% depth of discharge, and 8%/year interest, one cycle per day, 10,000 cycles, $2700 purchase price for 6.5 kWh nameplate capacity. Chinese batteries are even less expensive (assuming they really do last as many cycles as they promise).
That’s pretty good!
Stop Press! here in the UK my feed-in tarrif has just been increased from £0.15 per kWh to £0.151 per kWh! A whole tenth of a penny whilst my usage fee has increased by about 2 pence. Someone is making a huge profit. Prime Minister - please take note.
❤️
Hi, he’s not here for you!
Electric companies sell you power, not buy it.
Use it yourself or store it.
Take care M.
Thanks Gary, I recently looked at installing a battery, but it would take 9 - 10 years to pay for itself, when you’re 65, that’s a long time, I’m not sure that I’d be able to remember how to control it in 9 years, let alone now 😀
Have a chat with some installers (or even with me via “Chat With Gary” - a fully automated solution sounds best for you 👍🏻
Concise and easily understood. Thank you.
That’s fantastic feedback, Ian - thank you! 🙏
Summer 24 in the uk octopus agile had quite a few days of negative prices during the midday dip. Great for getting washing done which we cant do in the middle if the night.
Yeah, great stuff 😀
I have Octopus fixed export rate but at present the off peak rate (12p) actually means it is cheaper to charge my car off peak than from solar. If the export rate drops below the off peak rate I can just change when the car charges - I'm lucky enough to be retired so I can charge at any time.
I wonder if fast (7kW) chargers could be connected to a flexible tariff and plugged in vehicles everywhere benefit?
Great video, Gary. Yesterday I had an Octopus surveyor reviewing my house to assess its suitability for a heat pump central heating conversion. Unfortunately, it would be way too much work. Instead, I intend to get a home battery to pair with my 3kw solar panels (10 years old). I'd really like one that supports a VPP for both monetary and environmental reasons. Fingers crossed.
We could do with battery storage capacity on par or even greater than an EV battery size. Bring on even cheaper battery storage.
Thanks for talking about vpp. Very interesting
If it’s your costs then owning your own solar, battery and even a generator back up winds up cheaper.
It also takes you off the grid for most of your demand.
Just use the grid for a backup and the peak demands.
Take care M.
Hi Gary,love your channel & the way you explain everything.Forgive me if this is already a thing but is there a way to reduce generation to avoid paying to export.Maybe tech that detects a full battery ?I realise that it’s not an issue in the UK yet but…
Thanks for your kind words, Ian. If your inverter has an export limit placed on it, it will automatically curtail solar generation so as not to export (via voltage adjustment).
@@GaryDoesSolar I don’t have solar yet just getting my head around it for the next home. 👍
I’m in the UK and just agreed to get solar panels in our home. This vid makes me very nervous!
Keep the faith! It’s definitely worth it! When you can, get a battery, that changes the dynamic completely.
With a large enough battery, much of the potential downside can be mitigated either through time-shifting or self-consumption (as the video mentions). And batteries are easy enough to add to a system later on.
@@humphreybradley3060 yes I’m getting batteries too so I’ll keep the faith. Thanks for the encouragement!
@@jordansamuels2052 when I was getting my quotes I had a rough spreadsheet of my usage and approx. export amounts, load shifting to over night etc. to get any idea of payback times based on IOG tariff and the export @ 15p/kWh. I also did a secondary options in the event that export payments went out the door and self consumption was the better route. It went from 5.5 years to 6-7 years ROI assuming no other rate changes. I'm making the most of the higher export rate and low over night rate but it all comes down to what happens with the tariffs. Could go up, could go down, but either way I'll have cheaper bills and have added some value to the house even if it's only a few grand.
Once you get it installed, look to switch to a time of day tariff where you can get time periods (usually during the night), when the cost per unit of electricity is much cheaper. You can then charge your batteries and use it when the cost is higher. Octopus do a range of tariffs like this.
Looking at the updated October prices for the Octopus Flux tariff I notice despite the peak rate export going up, the standard and off peak actually went down. It feels like the trend is already going torwards targeting Exports at peak times in particular, not so much throughout the day.
Yeah, I think you’re right
I think the positive case still needs to be made for solar in the UK. Whilst payments may decrease:
1) Solar panels and batteries are cheaper than they have ever been.
2) The UK still needs to triple the amount of solar it has.
3) In addition to individual homes adding batteries to store their own power and participate in virtual power plants, electricity providers will increasingly locate batteries in neighbourhoods to buffer energy to them. California is building large amounts of short term battery storage to move their demand to the evening.
4) If regional pricing arrives, there will be areas that need solar more than others, which should help maintain the prices in those areas.
5) If you have an east or west-facing array, payments and self consumption can still be better as you help meet morning and evening demand without storage.
6) Self consumption is still very valuable, even if payments reduce.
The so-called standing charge for an electrical connection is forever increasing. I can see a time where, with residential batteries and solar PV along with negative unit pricing, that the standing charge will be all you'll pay for a basic 12kWhrs per day. I reckon it will get closer to a mobile phone contract with essentially some free daily electricity but for a fixed daily connection fee.
@@mb-3faze and yes, we will need that connection for winter, when there's insufficient energy from the sun and we are more reliant on wind.
@@mb-3faze Yep. Variable renewables have totally destroyed the electricity markets due to their privileged dispatching status.
Another very interesting video Gary. Another thing that I have been thinking about recently is with the current drive to move to electric vehicles, I wonder how that will affect the overnight cheap tariffs? It seems to me that as more and more vehicles are charging in the quieter periods, that surplus energy will be soaked up (and thus increase the price) - I wonder how that will change the overall picture in the future.
Here in Ireland, some energy companies are charging / paying the same rate for import / export. Typically about 24 cent for both.
Long may that continue! 😀
Thank you Gary for your videos. I'm in Ontario, Canada and last I've heard, we can net meter on a 1:1 basis for one year and then it is reset. We are not permitted to sell energy, but rather bank our summer solar for the winter. For me, all these schemes where I live don't pay enough to justify the upfront expense. This happens.
However, this VPP option is intriguing. Is this only through our local provider or can we hookup with a VPP somewhere else in the world?
Thanks.
Cheers 😀👍🏻
I'm trying to self consume all my PV , I heat my water via an eddi + heater in the winter as well as charging our EV's. Hopefully we will be able to do V2G soon from our ioniq 5.
That’s really great to hear, Wayne! 😀👍🏻
In Australia the Energy Regulator wants to limit how much goes into the grid during the day as it can't cope with the excess that is getting greater.
If they can control when you export to the grid you will get 5c but if they can't control it then you get 2.5c kw/hr and they are going to start charging people a yearly fee for exporting during the day.
They want you to export at night from your solar battery storage.
Currently they pay your export 5c kw/hr but you import it back at about 42c.
I have 2 Tesla 2 Power Wall Battery's with 2 x 5kw panels facing north and west and by midday, they are charged.
Thanks for sharing this insight - good to know!
I'm in Massachusetts, USA and we still have 100% net metering for all homes with a 10kw cap and 2MW roll over. We never get paid, but the grid is essentially my 2MW battery. IMHO the utility companies will eventually learn they're in the storage/offsetting business the easy way or the hard way. If they don't invest in batteries, homes will be forced to and that just further offsets the grid's customer demand. MA voted to increase the cap from 10kw to 25kw for residential with net metering so I'm guessing our duck curve isn't that bad. The downside of the MA plan is $0.34/kw fixed rate all day. If you don't have solar you really get screwed on your electricity costs.
Long may that continue for you, Scott 👍🏻
so you want someone to invest in batteries/storages and you will profit from it? One kwh out at daytime, one kwh in at night, zero to pay and let this storage be paid by everybody else? Awesome plan.
@@antontsau exactly. When the power company charges me ~2x the national average I want them spending it on storage instead of generation. If they invest in generation they'll be forced to increase price to ~3x to 4x; at which point it'll be cheaper for me to pay for my own storage instead of buying their electricity. This is basically what is happening in CA.
@@scottbalak7123 its the reason why you pay twice more - you pay for all these storages, transmission lines and so on instead of generation. More green bs, more batteries - higher the price. And you want net metering means free use of these storages. Plan reliable as Swiss watch.
Net metering is a regressive scheme paid for by poor renters to rich homeowners.
Great video Gary as always. I'm curious what the badge is you're wearing in the video?
Thanks Simon 😀 now that badge is actually a wireless microphone (Hollyland Lark M2). Works really well!
@@GaryDoesSolar ah - mystery solved!
If everyone went to net zero export for a month power companies would be screaming for feed in again
Maybe…. Of course, the power companies know that would never happen… 🤷♂️
Hi it’s something you need to do if they don’t value what you supply.
Battery storage or heat your hot water is the best use.
Take care M.
@@markeh1971 Already have 10kw storage which supports A phase power & light reconfigured switch board so only inductive loads on B phase also have solar hw . Depending on this sun tax I may split a string off array and run second Inverter and storage for B phase as even with self consumption and battery charging still export about 20kw per day
Thank you so much for your valuable content. I have a general question on the setup of the solar system (home) - In a normal setup with solar panels and converter, during the hours they produce good energy to use, which element or intelligence in the system will give priority to the usage of available solar produced energy rather than the grid? I mean both networks (solar and grid) are interconnected at the final stage so we may use energy still from available grid power (partly) rather than the solar one which is a pity.
You’re most welcome 😀👍🏻 Worth watching the second part of this video which explains the order in which generated energy is dealt with:
ruclips.net/video/E4-Lzc8khvU/видео.htmlsi=Lz9zmc-UemhFt6YS
The "Grid" is a more complicated thing than is usually explained. You will not only be constrained by the countrywide or regional demand, but also by local demand back to the transformer at the end of the street. The "Grid" may be perfectly fine, but local arm of your supply may be over supplied by solar panels just in your street. In my locality I can see from the DNO heat map that the supply from my local transformer is coloured orange "near capacity" and many other nearby streets are coloured red - at capacity. Even with home batteries the local arm of the network back to the transformer could be overwhelmed on a summer day when demand is low and all batteries are full. Hence the export limits the DNO applies.
The answer of course is as you say to increase demand
at certain times. Eventually we may even be asked/paid to curtail our solar export for short periods (eq turn off your solar inverter). I can't see the DNO paying to upgrade the network to deal with power which is not required. Of course all these things are just technological hurdles to be overcome and not a reason the dismiss local power generation.
In california the export value is just pennies per unit (the wholesale rate); the utility gets all its money out of you for deliverance charges. Our solar saving is from avoiding the highest pricing tiers because we have an electrict hot tub.
That hot tub doing the business, Anthony - great 😀
What percentage of your 49.9K subscribers are in the USA? I have a Tesla Energy solar array plus one Powerwall battery plus a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. Some months I have a small monthly electric bill, some zero billing, and a small check from Eversource for the excess generation sent back to the grid through my PPA program.
About 20%
just wait to you get to sceme 4.0 like where i am..
im deffently removing as much as posible from the grid the next couple of years
Which State? I'm familiar with CA - particularly Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) where we pay approx $0.13 per kWhr. This is because the city does not have PG&E electricity. It's a bargain, but a 'fly over' (on google satellite images) will show very few solar PV installs. At 13 cents for import it's honestly not worth it - especially with the tariff-inflationary panel prices.
@@GaryDoesSolarits now 50k subs congrats
@@xpreflex6265 Thank you! I'm well happy 😃
Energy shifting (storage) makes a lot of sense. If everyone who has solar generation also has a storage battery, the grid will be easier to manage and the large energy companies will have less need to build storage systems themselves. This also decentralises power generation and reduces the need to upgrade the grid for an all electric future.
Great points Nick 🙏
The grid requires massive upgrading/extending because of the green energy (to reduce C02) push with all the solar/wind farms being peppered around your state. This guarantees power pricing increases as that grid system/maintenance is a considerable part of the cost/Kwh you pay for. If they went nuclear and battery storage on decommissioned coal fired power stations sites then no extension of the grid network is required.
I'm making hay whilst the sun shines!
😂
I know that eventually I'll have to give in and fit batteries 😢
Exactly. Maybe there'll be a brief period where commercial BESS wants our excess solar but eventually commercial solar/wind will provide all the BESS requirements. By then I hope we'll be able to buy 50kWh of batteries for a couple of thousand.
Yeah, me too! I want to extend my battery capacity in time, but waiting for prices to drop a bit more 👍🏻
Battery prices fell by 80-90% in the past 10 years and it continues to fall each year. Wait till a good deal comes along and may be surprised at the value.
@@mb-3faze Some folk are repurposing EV batteries for a fraction of the price of a typical standalone - big kWh for cheap. I wonder if we'll see more of that in the future as used packs become plentiful.
Home batteries are disproportionately expensive vs what you get for a EV these days I feel
Excellent and informative video as always Gary. I guess this mean I no longer need to look into getting a G99 form completed as that would almost double the amount of solar production!!
Despite the somewhat negative outlook, it still makes sense to get as much PV on your roof as practicable. Gary points out a number of ways that excess power can be used, and having a G99 capable connection (>3.68kW) will be useful for some time and it usually doesn't cost much
Don’t forget that gas hob is also bad for lungs, especially young ones!
Yeah. And I wish I’d known that twenty years ago. In 50 years people will look back and find it incredulous that we burned gas to cook…
The silent killer in too many homes
In Texas we get 16% of cost. ... when our solar was installed it was 75%.
This means you have to install batteries that equal to 150% of max daily usage to avoid still paying for imported electricity. For us we need 150kw batteries. We currently have 75kw. And still pay about $60 a month in high demand times.
If you look at kw cost whole sale the energy companies pay solar 25% of this, in essence the still it.
Steal.
Thanks for sharing this, Michael - helps me build up a global picture 👍🏻
It’s only a year since Octopus put export rates up to 15p, from 4.1p. Until then it was all self-consumption for me. Now it’s so much easier, not looking for somewhere to dump the power on a sunny day. Long may it last!
Indeed! My Powerwalls mean I can timeshift my consumption to overnight rates at 7p/kWh, and export solar during the day at 15p! In summer I make money. Gary's channel is one that helped me set this up - many thanks!
Yeah, it’s a very good export rate in the UK, I’d argue 😀
Gary thanks for your content
You’re most welcome! 🙏
Here in the Netherlands I have to pay 11 eurocent per kwh i export to the grid. So my 9kw system will become expensive in summer when our net metering ends at the end of next year
Wow - that’s very scary!!
There will be Battery-as-a-Service widely available in The Netherlands by the end of 2025. You will be able to have 100% self consumption with the battery system with less monthly costs you pay now as utility fees.
Use it, store it, curtail it. Don't pay to export!
Big business doesn't like little people.
Currently planning a new build here in the UK with ground source heat/cooling, 45m² of solar panels with battery storage, well & septic tank/field.
Cost will be around £70k top.
I'll not recoup the cost at current rates but that's not a major factor in my plans.
If sand batteries were more advanced, I'd look in that direction rather than GSHP but they're at least 5 years out.
Best channel after Debby Does Dallas.
🤣🤣🤣 Thank you! 🙏
States should encourage the installation of batteries. Greetings from Switzerland 🇨🇭
Greetings! And I agree 😀👍🏻
using the extra solar production to run the electric Aga.
Good idea!
The solution to the duck curve is straightforward but ambitious. The grid has good reason to ramp up power usage during peak solar hours. Install EV slow chargers by the tens of thousands at workplaces and other all day parking lots, on the understanding that the power is free but only during negative pricing hours over lunchtime. Plug and pray. Most days, you'll get a full charge by mid afternoon. Some days, you'll get a partial charge, but probably still enough to get through to the following day.
Bonus points if your EV supports V2H. Charge to full-ish at the parking lot near work daily and use some of that power to run your home when you get home. That'll give the duck a hunched look if it takes off.
I like your thinking 😀
I am not surprised. They basically do not want customers becoming the generators that they pay rather than we pay them. Commercial generators also do not want the domestic production competition.
On the whole I think more in terms of wanting to be self sufficient, effectively off grid, if not actually, than I think about the money back for selling extra surplus generation. All these speculative ideas of 'pay back' are a nonsense as the future can change at the drop of a hat. Lots of people do it and there will be lower prices paid if anything.
My main use in high generation middle of the day I aim to become to run Air con as I hate the heat, heatwaves, summer hot times. I would never pay for the power to do that though if no table to use my own being mean and frugal. lol.
Being retired I could load use to the middle of the day like washing and baking bread etc.
But one step at a time, booking solar install now.
Sounds like solid advice. Having AC must help a lot to soak up that solar generation 👍🏻
Increasing battery capacity is not the only solution. I have solar and batteries. A home assistant automation make sure to charge the batteries during the hours of cheapest grid price (avoiding cheap export), and discharge them into the grid during peak pricing. You can be at noon with the batteries still empty, by preventing them to charge earlier.
Sounds good - thanks for sharing 👍🏻
does the home assistant have access to the real time price or you set the timer manually? and do you have reserve capacity for blackouts?
@samueladitya1729 home assistant is indeed trading automatically based on real time pricing. There's no manual interaction. There's indeed a reserve for blackouts even if they are unusual over here. I can also plug my EV V2L output into the generator input of the inverter and fill up the home batteries
Im going to mine crypto. 😅
I did look into that, funnily enough… apparently not worth it these days :-( oh well… 🤣
@@GaryDoesSolar I've mined well over the cost of the mining equipment in a year and am in profits now with the market about to reverse. So it's been good for me.
I've been using an S19 for a year rather than selling it back, its knocking years off my solar payback
@@djhowie38interesting to see your thoughts on this and Gary’s. Correct me if this or my maths is wrong. btc is worth £48k. Average single S19 home machine operates at about 3kwh but only 141 hash rate? The more powerful s21 water cooled miner is 5.36kwh running at 335 hash rate and makes for more economical mining. It would take 102,000 hours to mine a btc or 4,250 days or 11.65 years. Thats 546,729 kWh which is about 47,000 kWh a year. Which at current buy rates in UK (0.14p) would be £6.5k per year versus the generating btc of £48k/11.65 = £4,100k (assuming static btc price). So even if you could generate 47,000 kWh a year you would be £2.4K better off not mining bitcoin but instead selling to the grid?
Ok, maybe I need to take another look at crypto!
Have you ever done, or considered recently doing a vid on the future of public solar? What I mean is, is it worth waiting for some new tech to arrive? I know at some time you've got to stop waiting and just accept what you have may be out of date quite quickly, but it's something we have to consider. Thanks for the vids, i'm still ploughing through them all, have subscribed and liked.
Thanks for your kind words about my videos. Do you mean the latest and greatest with solar panels? I have a video on that coming soon. Otherwise, what do you mean by "public solar"? Thank, Gary
You can imagine my shock that governments across the world would encourage and tempt people to invest heavily up front with decent returns, before screwing everyone once enough suckers have bought in. Some would call that a scam.
A scam would be fossil fuel companies downplaying the externalities of their business (aka climate change and air pollution)
I'm in the UK and installed a 7.5kWp solar system 18 months ago that cost £7.5k. I have no batteries and one EV. I'm on the Octopus Flux tariff. So far I've saved £4.6k. I still charge my EV and use the heavy duty electrical appliances in the middle of the night. Storage batteries didn't make financial or environmental sense for my situation and I intend to get a heat pump next and then another EV before investing in storage batteries.
That’s brilliant. I want to get a heat pump next too 👍🏻
The government should stop incentivising EVs, which are unpopular, and incentivise using batteries to flatten the duck curve. This would give us more reliable electricity, not less.
excpt batteries are a few grand
The idea is eventually to use the ev batteries to balance the grid demand ie V2G.
I disagree that EVs are unpopular. Do you have evidence to support that?
@@PazLeBon the only thing that's free is sunshine 🌞
I used the Tesla Energy Plan VPP through Octopus (11p import & export). It was easy & cheap, sadly Tesla pulled it a few years ago, probably in preparation for them to become an energy provider which hasn’t happen yet.
I'm just going to get batteries and buy power at night and run off them during the day. Honestly, did no one do the math on this ahead of time???
The payback / ROI can be long, of course ppl have done the math..
@stuartburns8657 I'm sorry I wasn't clear. I was referring to those stearing the national grids. They promised cheaper electricity. I suppose they were right about the middle of the day. But on the whole, they either didn't do the math or were lying 🤷♂️
@@westerncowhand7814 Ah I see thank you
It’s always hard to predict the future, but in the end it’s all about getting the right people in the job to achieve the right/best outcomes…
solar export reduces domestic demand - that should be a primary reason to install it. and that is still important from a national grid perspective as it’ll factor into new power station planning and building. I’m happy to have a (small) array locked into to the original FIT tariff for another 12 years though. index linked too ;)
Have you considered whether it is worth moving off FIT as the EV Puzzle did?
@@Biggest-dh1vr I’m off ‘deemed export’ as I added more solar so I am currently getting 15p for everything I export. But you’d be crazy to get off the generation part of FIT - they can be safely separated. early FIT is 71p/kwh and goes up with inflation
@@MrKlawUK 15p is more than I pay for electricity period. No wonder your country is in such dire straits.
Hey Gary, I’m a solar salesman in Southern California. I have a few customers that had old systems that weren’t producing anywhere near what they needed giving them a $3,000 to ,$4000 true-up bill. We added 120% offset and 2-3 Tesla Powerwalls. And made sure settings are right, but now they are calling me with $300 powerbills still! I understand NEM 3.0 sucks but how on earth do people with more solar and enough storage have such high bills, I feel like there is something missing now. I want to help them out but I thought the batteries would help them.
I guess the problem is that battery prices are still too high, especially in Southern California…?
Really good series of video. Gary has a really nice way of explaining sometimes quite complex concepts. After being let down badly by two "expert" MCS qualified installers and having to wrangle back my deposit I installed my own 4kw system. DNO notified and fine, but no SEG payments for export as it's not a MCS installed system. But, come the day, when prices go negative more often, I wonder if the DNO will start recognising my exports and start charging for it. Time to start investigating export limitation methods I think.
Thanks for the kind words 😀 and all the best with your plans! 👍🏻
I believe that Octopus will pay export for non MCS installed systems (change of policy a few months back).
@@fells6323 I've approached them a few times over the 18 months on this and the answer has always been "no" or "maybe flexiorb". Not sure what would happen if I have a MCS installed battery alongside my PV solar though. All seems a bit odd/scammy given I've got a G98 type tested device feeding the grid and were the DNO seems happy with this.
I got in late in solar in Calif unfortunately but its still well worth it under NEM3. Much like how 1:1 metering was effectively a subsidy, your Battery exports rate (Avoided Cost Calculator) get locked in at the rate you interconnect under for 9 years, if you join within first 5 years of NEM3/NBT. Basically, while the power companies got together to kill pure residential grid tie solar (as they had enough locked in for their purposes) there was an effort to assure a payback period with VPP/Export double dipping for early NEM3 adopters. These rates get revised every 2 years so its a clear attempt at trying to continue to drive battery manufacturing & hope the residential battery side matures and is streamlined/scaled to the point where the economics are solid enough with just the tax rebate. In Cali you can get basically 1k+300 with VPP off a 13.5kwh battery just from two months of exports in august and September. $13k battery installed, $9K~ after tax rebate. So payback is still reasonable.
We have the same issue in the Netherlands. The energy providers are doing everything to push people to use our own power and even stimulate turning off solar panels.
Yeah, some people think that attractive export rates will be around for a long time yet, but many countries are already taking action…
Even with all those optimizations of load shifting and self consumption, You're still going to be exporting in the summer and importing in the winter.
There's no way around that because we don't have any long term energy storage.
To really solve these problems, it requires.
A new smart grid which nobody is talking about yet
Great point, John. Thankfully, there’s a lot of work happening in that area now. Let’s hope for a breakthrough soon!
50 years ago in Solar energy the thought and concern was how to store excess energy..
Ie do you have a giant hill to pump water uphill to turn a water turbine generator at night?
Do you have magical batteries that are safe and cost nothing and last forever?
Or do you live in a cold climate and build a house with giant Boulders in the basement to store excess heat? Or do you build a giant water tank to store heat in the water in winter and chill the water in the summer for air conditioning?
Or do you have magic rocks with a phase change to store heat?
Or build a windmill and use its mechanical energy to lift up 200 engine blocks a city block high so store energy for turning a generator at night?
College solar energy stuff from 50 years ago.
I invested in a solar and seperately wind fund, both of which are paying between 8 and 10% anually, they more than cover my electric bill, kind of price linked too but def contains risk as a strategy it works at the moment and gets by a lot of the issues you highlighted
Sounds great! Thanks for sharing 🙏
Solar power is needed during peak demand ( 3 pm to 7 pm ).
Not when ever people decide to face the panels at the sun, usually lunch time.
Go outside and look at where the sun is shining on your house at 5 pm. Put your panels there, no matter what the installation companies tell you.
West is perhaps best, after all?
@@GaryDoesSolar At my house, the best is on a vertical wall facing west. Most installers won't do it.
At my off grid shop, I have panels on a rolling cart , roughly 60 % vertical and 40 facing directly up. After lunch I turn it from east to west.
In Australia we get a Government incentive to put on Solar, it’s roughly 40% of the total cost. We used to get .48c a KW to export back. Over the years it’s now reduced to .06c per KW but now we are capped at 5kw per hour. Unfortunately the tariff between 7am to 7pm is the same as between 7pm to 7am. So my house uses roughly 11.5kw per day but my Solar produces on average 60kw per day. I know it’s not much but I’m still being charged $45 a month. The governments around the world want net zero but I’m wasting 48.5kw a day. Good old Government.
Grid level storage batteries are going to use that extra solar and then sell it back to the grid during 4pm to 6pm making them a lot of money.
Yup, I reckon 👍🏻
I paid just over $17,600 for 6kw of Solar Panels and a Solar Hot Water system to replace my Gas Hot water system, it took me just under 5 years to recover the cost of the two systems as my Gas bill was slightly over $274 a quarter and my Electric was almost $300 a Quarter, which meant I saved $2276 a year and I got back from my Energy Company a further $2000 a year from selling my solar credits, which meant I was saving $4276 a year.
I know for a fact that had I not gone Solar, I would be paying far more than the $2276 I was paying 12 years ago.
I was never after making money, I only wanted to remove my Electric bill, I never dreamt that I would make money as well as removing the Gas and Electric bill entirely :)
If they stop paying me for my credits, I won't give a damn as I have not only made a huge profit, but also saved all that money I would have paid for my Electrics and Gas and so have more than enough money to buy a 13.5kw Battery bank that I will have connected to my Solar and Home and disconnect from the grid entirely, like I did with the Gas.
Thanks for sharing this, Billy - will hopefully encourage others to do the same 👍🏻
Excellent video. Thanks
Thanks James - glad it was useful to you 😀👍🏻
For those in the UK who do wish to save hundreds on expanding your battery bank. I have a few Pylontech US5000 batteries and fully agree what Gary says that decent solar export rates during the day will soon be a thing of the past, so been looking to expand my bank so can load shift at will. Best online price for above currently £1099 inc VAT and free del. However contacted them asking about the free uk VAT on batteries. They told me they can sell me the batteries as a DIY install, but then sub contract me to install them for 4% saving me 16% from the normal 20% VAT. That makes them $175 cheaper at £923 each.
I hope you’re able to sell them.
The company I'm currently on buys at 0.022 cents per kw but sells back at 16.8. To combat this, I limit export by choosing strategic times to charge the EV. Future moving plans are to setup a different system that runs 100% off solar and only pulls from grid on emergency basis. Properly sized that would be almost never.
Yeah, good approach 👍🏻
Great talk, thanks.
Cheers 🙏
There's talk around that regulators may gain the power to disconnect customers from the grid to maintain network stability.
Yeah, this is a thing in some countries, I understand 👍🏻
@@GaryDoesSolarYep, already happening to some customers here in Oz. 🇦🇺
Where do I find what VPP offers are available in the UK? A google search showed only Intelligent Octopus (which is just a variable tariff as far as I know) and some marketing tariff for Tesla vehicles which still do not seem to support V2G.
In addition to Octopus Energy, Tesla is expected to launch as an energy provider in the UK next year, and some of their tariffs are expected to include VPP capability. GivEnergy offer a VPP service for their battery products called give back. GivEnergy and SolarEdge also offer a VPP service for their battery products.
Very informative video as ever which leads me to a question you or someone will hopefully be able to answer. I have 2 separate solar pv systems at my property, 1 with a hybrid inverter with max 25kw of puredrive batteries and another with a string 3.6kw inverter. Would it be possible to change the string inverter to a hybrid inverter so i can load up with more batteries, i only have 1 supply to the house, or can i only have 1 hybrid inverter in the system?
Thanks - I used the switch code
That’s very kind of you, thank you 🙏 😀
The problem with almost every strategy for using the generating peak when it is happening is you have to be at home in the middle of the day to do it.
Most of us are at work along with the vehicle that takes us there.
That’s a fair point. Perhaps a larger home battery is the only way?
i wish we had octopus in northern ireland but our market is bad..
I cant even get a smart meter fitted. it's so stupid. they had to fit a new export meter for my solar install in August but they don't do smart meters at all...
Yeah, I can imagine Octopus is working hard to enter that market 👍🏻
I saw last night on TV where if you have solar your insurance company might drop you. Utility companies are now putting an extra fee on your electric bill if it goes to low due to you using solar. And we are supposed to go green. What a screwed up world we live in anymore.
Yeah, that does seem madness...!
Funny how UK demand has gone down significantly 2010 - 2023 yet we’re paying ever more for energy. You might say shareholder dividends, profits and taxes upon are more significant than wholesale energy prices!
Yeah, there’s certainly a problem…
In Denmark where I live, there have been a lot of days with negative prices, and given I don’t yet have a battery, I have regularly been charged for my export.. so this is very real and will only get worse.. this is killing the economics of my solar system - hoping to get a battery soon.. 😅😅😅 9:55
Thanks for this information - I didn’t know if affected Denmark as well…
@@GaryDoesSolar oh yes - all our windmills and solar is not doing anything good for that part. And our tariffs and tax’s are only going one way.. 👆👆👆
Also our electricity providers basically only have fixed prices (which are insanely expensive) or spot prices. Nothing in between - how octopus operate and can offer so many different options I have no clue. 🧐
“The only constant in life is change” building in personal home flexibility and being able to adapt strategies when tariffs inevitably change is key.
Good video giving people a heads up that assumptions in a cost case naturally won’t stay the same over a period (which can be positive and negative to outcomes) 👍
I do think people being mis-sold solar-only systems is going to be a thing. Even with good workmanship and parts, solar installers are not economists and many of the forecasts included in quotes have absurd assumptions baked in.
@@afaulconbridge the models are certainly complex. The basic illustrations given in quotes need to be taken with a pinch of salt. You need to constantly monitor what is going on and the best tariff to optimise… a lot of people won’t want that hassle and will get annoyed it’s not working out for them when the energy companies change the goalposts