Timeline of Dishonor: How the Starks Betrayed Rhaenyra
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- Опубликовано: 6 фев 2024
- Here is it, a new theory video. This took way too much effort. In the end, its long and technical and perhaps unwatchable, but shows how the Starks are the real villains of the Dance of the Dragons.
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Game of Thrones is an American fantasy drama television series created for HBO by David Benioff and D. B. Weiss. Based on the fantasy novel series, A Song of Ice and Fire by George R.R. Martin. A Game of Thrones is one of the most successful television series to ever made and continues to captivate audiences all over the world. The series is set on the fictional continents of Westeros and Essos, and interweaves several plot lines with a large ensemble cast. The first narrative arc follows a civil war among several noble houses for the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms; the second covers the attempts to reclaim the throne by the exiled last scion of the realm's deposed ruling dynasty; the third chronicles the rising threat of the impending winter and the legendary creatures and fierce peoples of the North.
#asongoficeandfire
#gameofthrones 
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Cregan honestly is a genius for how he handled the North's involvement in the war.
He kept his people out of the fighting for as long as possible, let his enemies destroy themselves, and swooped in to finish the war and prosecute his "enemies" after the fighting was over. And what could the survivors do? Criticize him for being late? Corlys defected and took a pardon after Rhaenyra died, Lady Arryn was late, most of Rhaenyra's supporters were dead or severely undermanned, and all the perpetrators of Aegon II's faction were either dead or now imprisoned.
Cregan held all the cards, put on a grand display of "justice" to show how "committed" he was to Rhaenyra that just happened to distract the world from the fact that he took two years to make a 4 month trip, and then went home as the noble hero.
S-tier leadership. No notes.
To be fair, it does take some time to call your banners. Not two years. But you would think like a month or two.
@@patrickhenry1249remember the north is vast and they're ppl are very spread out so a muster, before harvest is done would probably take 8 months
@@jordanpax9735 Did it take that long for Robb though? I was under the impression the time between a Game of Thrones and a Clash of Kings wasn’t that long.
So using the Vandal Proof timeline (which is the most comprehensive timeline available AND the basis for the FanFic's):
The letter Sansa sends to Robb begging him to bend the knee arrives in Winterfell on 11/8. That is also the day Robb calls the banners.
Robb and the host he gathered on short notice leaves Winterfell on 12/9 (two days after the start of Bran 6) and we don't hear from Robb again until Cat 8 on 12/25 (Merry Day of the Seven, everyone) when they link up at Moat Caillin.
1/9 is the Battle of the Whispering Wood.
1/15 is the lifting of the Siege of Riverrun
1/16 Robb is crowned King inside the walls of Riverrun
So assuming this timeline is correct, the North can theoretically muster enough men to launch an invasion south (roughly 20,000 men, as Roose Bolton commanded a host of ~17,000 at the Green Fork and Robb commanded ~6,000 men during his attack on Jaime and the besiegers at Riverrun) in less than 2 months, there's absolutely no reason why Cregan couldn't have been south of The Neck by the end of the year.
Even assuming they needed to hold back to gather their crops before marching, it doesn't take six months to gather the last harvest before winter sets in. If anything, they should be racing down south to alleviate food shortages for the women and children up North while the fighting men pillage the South for about a year and return with full bellies, maybe a baggage train of captured foodstuffs, and loot that they can turn around and buy food with if the winter gets extreme enough.
Update to my last reply: I know the circumstances are different between Robb and Cregan (Robb is trying to save his Dad vs. Cregan being sucked into a war a thousand miles away) but Cregan still married his kid into the Royal Family. It's his problem now. If he really cared about getting his kid with ties to the line of succession actually IN that line of succession, he'd have been south within five months, and even THAT is an extremely long time to muster enough men to fight a war.
Stormlanders were procrastinating aswell, Boros Baratheon only marched after Rhaenyra's death. It looks like they all were afraid to face dragons in battle.
Not an unreasonable fear.
During Rhaenyra's reign over King's Landing, Boros Baratheon was dealing with a new dornish uprising led by the third Vulture King
@@spenstings Yeah, sure he was.
Convenient how he managed to beat the Dornish and return to take over King’s Landing as soon as the Dragons were all dead and seemingly all the major fighting was done.
@@thankgod4rednecsinnitt290 He of course made a choosing of opponents 😂
Absolutely was. Boros knew that the only reason he was lording over Storm's End is because dragons allowed his Great-Grandfather to take it.
I bet it was a bed time story for every Baratheon 'Don't fuck with dragons'.
It's hilarious how Cregan was so obviously late and acted all pissed off at Tullys for celebrating, called them pups when it was actually the riverlanders who did all the fighting for Rhaenyra.
The Late Lord Stark.
@@zaja2418 lord stark was more interested howling at the moon and sleeping in his den than honoring his oath
"I'm gathering my troops." Aka "the check is in the mail." 😂
I do hope that HotD adapts it this way. Could be a lot of fun toying with people's expectations of the Freys versus the Starks, to have the Late Lord Frey's predecessors move extremely quickly and put in 110% effort to help Rhaenyra, while the Starks dither and stall (not that I'd blame them - for once their geography helps them out; they don't have to deal with the rock and hard place that trap poor Rosby and Stokeworth)
The Winter Wolves fought with the Freys in the initial battles, though the number of 2000 might seem low, it bears keeping in mind that most battles at this time period were fought by less than 10000 men on both sides. In the Battle by the Lakeshore they outnumbered the Frey contingent by over a thousand men.
I think HotD want to bring the wall and the white walkers back into the story, so my guess is that they are going to play it as Cregan and his forces being busy with that - but I honestly would prefer it all being politically motivated stalling.
@@DominionSorcererwhich I find strange considering we know the Frey’s hold more lands, and more small folk and lesser houses to draw from than House Tully. Even before the conquest they were stronger. You’d think they’d have more men.
@@Lespritdelescalithe Wall and Others have nothing to do with this part of the lore. They still won’t emerge for another century and a half.
@@aaroncohen2700 they do have more manpower, but this is a time period where there are flying weapons of mass destruction that breathe fire. Battles at this time in Westerosi history aren't won through size but by dragons, so bigger armies are just bigger targets.
The intro reminds me of your old videos
So nostalgic
So true! These intros are a nice calling card
Yeah it's great
agreed, better times haha
Cregan was dealing with problems of his own. He'd just deposed his uncle, who'd basically kept him under house arrest for years, and doubtless had allies in the northern houses who Cregan couldn't fully trust. You only get the maester's version of what happened in those years, but the north was probably doing a little civil war of it's own.
Nice point. Also, bring in a new baby boy as your only heir and a recently deceased wife. Well, why risk your hard fought lordship for dragon fire?
@@jordanthompson1418true. No sense in leaving a young heir around after you take over your lordship from your uncle and his sons. If Cregan dies what’s to stop his uncle or cousins from controlling his heir?
I missed these old school theories!! Great stuff Preston!
I agree, this is what I subscribed for. Not for his fanfiction, not for his podcasts.
@@DanielGalimidiCarmine alone makes it unwatchable
I mean most of the honourabe Starks we met were either raised by Arryn or someone else raised by Arryn.
I've never considered this before, thanks.
damn I never even thought about that
Benjen is kinda honorable i guess
@@jaafarchaoui185is he? We dont actually know that, we know very little about him and the Rhaegar + Lyanna + Reed + Laughing three story. Why would an only brother join the Nights Watch?
And the Karstarks, not exactly known for their honour, are literally Starks.
Reminds me of Doran’s kimdissi philosophy in the deeper dorne series. The valyrian houses destroy themselves whilst Cregan Stark and Torrhen Manderly end up on top as hand of the king and regent.
Seeing as the only chalangers to targarian rule are other targarians, thus civil war is the only danger they could ever face, they must all be fools for allowing civil war to happen and universaly taking sides in it.
“I’m probably wrong about half of this”-perhaps resurrected by one of those mysterious Hightowers nobody ever sees?
The Maesters: "pssst! Ayy Starks... hang back until the dragons all eat each other."
Starks: "What about the other houses? Won't we look weak?"
The Maesters: "Nah, homie! We're in every house. Same deal... Let them burn each other down first, riiiight?."
Starks: "Bet" 🤔
*And what a grand plot it was!!*
When I last read F&B, I definitely felt like something was off with the timing of the Northmen's arrival. Thank you for laying it all out!
So true!
I mean. . . I don't blame them. If you are faced with a guy with a dragon demanding you join them, can you really say no? You nod your head and then drag your feet. After all, what are the Blacks or the Greens to them? Why should they care about their family drama?
Yeah and if you think about it the promise of an unborn daughter marring your son is kinda a bad offer, like Jace would not even marry until the war is over
@@Kai555100 And there is no guarantee Jace will have a daughter.
i think in the end most houses did not care about who was king or queen. For most it would mattered nothing. Unless of course you felt betrayed or treated unjust. Then it was nice that you could declare to an alternative king/queen.
@@CorvoThan Well yeah, everyone in ASOIAF is mostly dishonorable and self interested. People like Jon are the exception.
@@markopavlovic5645 that's what realistic ab asoiaf
Great work as always! It'll be interesting to see how things are portrayed in the show, I'm unsure if they'll be willing to even broach the idea of Starks being less than honorable.
The title of this video immediately made me think of the Empress Matilda fighting Stephen in Anglo-Norman history. King David of Scotland claimed to fight for Matilda's claim - but in fact just used that as a cover to try and better his own interests in England, conquer territory - and closen his ties with Northumbria. Something to keep in mind if George wrote TDOTD with Matilda and Stephen in mind!
Waiting until winter is the smartest time for the Vale and the North to fight, for them. No one is conquering them or even trying to raid them during the winter.
Yeah I Always had that feeling that the Starks having problems to prepare their army was nonsence and very opportunistic
After all Cregan only entered the War when the dance was almost over and he made a flawless War and later Robb a century and half After that did go to War despite also having problems yes he lost but he still was able to have an army and made someone good moves
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
@@ferrjuan still Robb had 20000 men and Cregan send 2000 Old men who was on ''im going to Valhalla'' mode
@@stevecavalle well not defending anyone but cregan did arrive after collecting the harvest and settling everything else in his land
He didn't want to disrupt the northern process for an outside war
@@johnstark7873 still Robb '' did not disturbed it '' by only having 20000 men
@@stevecavalle Robb did distrub it as he didnt left enough men to either plough fleet or defend north which resulted in loss of north to greyjoy and boltons rise
Of all the major houses, only the Lannisters were activelly involved in the main war phase, and payed an extreme price for this. I suppose all the other houses played their cards better, by either being neutral, or waiting for the dragons and everyone else to had died before taking relevant actions
NEW BIG VIDEO!!!!!!!! I though there will be only streams and fanfic till the endtime.
But the pact of ice and fire stated that Jacaerys’ first daughter would marry Cregan Stark’s son and heir Rickon. He dies in the first month of 130 ac. So that pact became null and void. Still, Cregan gathered up an army and sent them down to fight knowing he wasn’t getting anything out of the deal anymore. Also, the winter wolves were sent early and the Manderly’s sent knights while Cregan Stark got the whole north ready to fight. I’m sure they were in any hurry to fight dragons. But they still went even though they had already lost everything they were supposed to get out of this war.
They still could have renegotiated that deal for Aegon III or Joffrey
I mean the Lannisters went all in the war and they weren’t going to get anything.
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
@@ferrjuan harvesting crops for 2 fucking years sure whats more likely is 5 months of quick harvesting and then sending an army of 30k to die to have a surplus
Underrated comment. The Starks did not betray Rhaenyra. And the Lannisters absolutely get something out of Aegon sitting the throne: increased access to power in the small council and hopefully advantageous marriages and thereby dragons.
I like the idea of a prequel show that flips audience expectations of the familes. Have a Lannister protagonist and a generation of Starks that are complete tools, just to show that things change and there are no "goodies and baddies" when it comes to families.
We need more videos like this Preston’s going back to his roots ! Love it
Saying the Winter Wolves were an insignificant number really overlooks how small armies usually were for this time period, at the Battle at Rook's Rest and the Sack of Duskendale the entire Green army commanded by Criston Cole only numbered in the 3000s. At the Battle of the Honeywine they were the majority of the Black forces that we know of, with the Greens only having 8000 men for that battle. At the Butcher's Ball the Greens were less than 3600.
yeah, if the War of the Five Kings is the Wars of the Roses (and he's said it's inspired by that even if it doesn't make too much sense historically), then the Dance of the Dragons is 'The Anarchy'. The largest pitched battle only had about 1000 men on each side.
@@ulture George himself said that the Anarchy is partly what inspired the Dance of the Dragons.
Another thing is that you don't really _want_ large armies in this time period, not if you're fighting the Targaryens with their dragons. You could have an army of a hundred thousand, but going up against one dragon would more than likely leave you with a hundred thousand burnt corpses.
@@ulturePolitically there's a lot of the Anarchy there, sure, but not militarily.
The anarchy came at one of the heights of defensive military developments as opposed to offensive, and a great many barons happily sat out much of the actual fighting in their castles. The fighting being limited to sieges, raids and skirmishes, rather than pitched battles. If you look at conflicts more prone to field battles than the Anarchy, we do see armies numbering up to 10,000 or more.
And then there's the fact that Westeros is drastically larger than England.
It does put into perspective how the current wars in Westeros have so many more people. I can’t remember exact numbers but its not uncommon to see the number 50k being thrown around for army sizes, and that’s in famously sparsely populated regions like the North and Dorne, too!
@@PineappleLiar Yeah, when Robbie marches south, his northern host numbers about 20,000, and several of the stewards of the lands in the North, particularly the far north such as the Umbers, complain about not having enough men to bring in the last harvest.
The late Cregan Stark. To be fair at this point nobody wanted to side with the Targaryens, they were probably hoping they will kill each other. Wishing to go back to the separated kingdoms rulling.
I think the Tullys went hard for the Targs because they were not overlords before the Targaryens, every other major house except for the Tyrells, were overthrown by the Targaryen.
"Mushroom claimed that Cregan had a half-sister, Sara Snow, who slept with Jacaerys, and that an angry Cregan only relented after being told that Jacaerys and Sara had secretly wed in the godswood of Winterfell. Archmaester Gyldayn is skeptical of Mushroom's ribald stories, however." (Asoiaf wiki)
Perhaps this is why.. Alternatively it may be because Jacaerys soon died in the war and there wasn't much point to commit the North to some stupid war in the South. Maybe just wait and intervene in the war only when it's end is close.
Based Starks saw an opportunity to weaken the damned dragon lords and took it.
Your video got quoted a couple times on this forum I'm active on, Space Battles. Including by me if I'm being honest. And someone (username: Elder Haman) posted a pretty good rebuttal to this video. So I'm just going to copy past it below:
That's one fan's very biased view of the whole thing. The more reasonable interpretation is that Rhaenyra called for supporters in early autumn, and thus the North sent their old men south as a vanguard (and under their best general Roddy the Ruin who was one of Cregan's mentors so hardly holding back there), while the rest of the North spent the next year harvesting like mad for the coming winter. Then once the harvest was in he called his banners, which takes another half a year to gather (remember the size of the North, and now you are dealing with winter snows blocking the roads), and then he marched south (which takes another half a year).
It's not a case of Cregan being deceitful and deliberately late. It's that he has deal with winter and if he didn't have a harvest his smallfolk would starve to death. They ended up starving anyway because of how long the winter was, and because with Corlys dead, the other Southern Lords (mainly Greens in the Reach and West) decided to screw over the North and not sell them food.
Furthermore, I have to object to specifics of the video. They claim that the Freys managed to move so quickly to aid the Blacks, yes, that's because they have a river to use for transport, and the Freys were already solid Blacks, no need for more than a raven to get them to start gathering (remember Lord Frey and the Fool Frey are the same man) - which the video even notes, but then seems to think the Vale can respond as quickly which is nonsense from looking at the map. Just because the distance is the same does not mean the travel time is the same. The Freys had a river, and were travelling through friendly and densely populated territory (so not as much need for a logistics train), and gathered forces from lands adjoining the Twins. The Vale has to gather men over five to six times as much territory, which is all mountains, and then has to march through a hostile mountain pass in autumn (since the Mountain Clans are even stronger at this point in time) to get to Harrenhall. It's not surprising that in canon the Vale instead sent knights to Kings Landing by boat.
He also places the dates too early. As Jace returns half a year before his birthday at the end of the year, we can put the Stark alliance as having been secured sometime in late May, early June, which is probably the same time as the battle of Burning Mill. Which is in the wider timeline he suggests, but he suggests it probably happened in April (and later uses that to estimate the time Cregan took), which is nonsense. He then claims that with Rook's Rest around November, that the Starks are gathering men and that this is horribly late. It is not. That's five months in middle of harvest. Robb requires three months at least at the end of summer, with better roads, better weather, and he doesn't gather all his forces, just what could be gathered swiftly. According to his standards, Robb was late even though he was marching to save his father and sisters. This is just a case of someone who doesn't understand the distance involved, or the way harvests interact with available men for war.
The real lack of support was the lack of ships from Gulltown and White Harbour to support closing the Gullet. Though we are told that such was offered but that Corlys proudly said he didn't need more ships - this is because the Triarchy joing the war caught all the Blacks by surprise. They thought that the Greens wouldn't invite foreigners (slavers!) into the war.
The videos continues to make these claims, such as it taking a month to ride from Winterfell to the Twins, when it took Robert Braratheon "months" to travel from Winterfell to King's Landing (with the implication being around 4 to 5 months), which is twice the distance, but the part between the Twins and Winterfell is much worse in how narrow the road is and the surrounding terrain. It's more reasonable to think it would take about three months. In other words, they left Winterfell right around the time news arrived that they were gathering forces at Winterfell (which makes sense, they probably sent word right before they left Winterfell).
He then compares the size of the Winter Wolves to the Size of Robb's host, again disregarding the different circumstances and times. For one thing, Robb is 170 years later, and they just had a ten year long summer, which means that the North would have a much larger population than normal (and in fact the numbers raised by the various regions in Dance are significantly less than those raised by those same regions in the War of the Five Kings). He then mentions they participated in the Fishfeed, but fails to mention how utterly vital to the victory that those Winter Wolves were. Roderick Dustin was also important in the Butcher's Ball as well. They were not merely a symbolic force as the videos implies, but were massively important to the Black victories.
He even then points out that winter had not yet fully arrived until Maiden's Day in 130 AC. Of course only then will Cregan be able to gather the men who had been harvesting food until that time and send them south. So you'd expect at least another six to eight months before the next wave of Northmen arrive. (More forces, worse weather, on foot, longer times marching, etc). The exception being those that go by boat - and guess what? That's when the first Manderly forces arrive. (I'll also point out that the Vale also has to deal with harvests, their winters aren't as bad as the North, but they are much worse than anywhere else in the South).
I will grant that more men in Kings Landing would have helped against the smallfolk riots, but that was an unexpected event. It's hard to express how utterly astonished everyone must have been that smallfolk ended up killing five dragons, without even a lordly commander. No doubt everyone (including Rhaenyra) thought that reinforcements were needed more elsewhere (primarily at Tumbleton to invade the Reach).
Furthermore the videos never asks the question: If Cregan was playing Rhaenyra false, then why send more forces at all after her death? There was no more Jace to provide a daughter for his son, nor a Joffery to marry a Manderly. Why not sue for peace? Why not accept the peace deal worked out by Corlys?
The person that actually played the Dance deceitfully was Lord Baratheon. Who called his banners, supposedly to fight for Aegon, but instead marched south to fight the Dornish, and only marched on the capital after Rhaenyra fled. I actually suspect that he might have had a secret arrangement with Rhaenyra to not fight her, since she seemed unthreatened by him and sent no forces to deal with him during her entire time in Kings Landing. She even denied Daemon when he suggested attacking Storms End.
The whole video basically assumes that the North and Vale ought to have acted a certain way (ignoring all sorts of logistical realities that made that near impossible) and then declares them "without honor" for not acting the way he thinks they ought. He depends on the flashy and controversial claim to carry the day, and make people think he's so clever at seeing the "truth" behind the historical propaganda, but when you think about things a bit more it all falls apart. For one thing Viserys II seemed to count the North as a friend, and he had a good head on his shoulders, so I think he would have known if there really was something nefarious to how the North acted. Instead it's much simpler and likely that distance, logistics, and weather hampered Northern forces from arriving sooner. Perhaps Creagan could have shown a little less caution, and sent smaller numbers of forces as reinforcements to Roderick in drips and dribbles instead of massing a second force, but hindsight is 20/20. There are surely historical examples of a leader doing that and it resulting in defeat in detail.
I actually laughed out loud when you said the North only came 2 YEARS after the pact.
?
@@sachamason3116 watch the video and make a proper reply instead of just typing fucking question marks
?
@@AManChoosesASlaveObeys bro you think you're funny?
@@Plostersa817 I think you're too salty for a simple question mark in a comment section :D We can be friends and vent out the frustrations your have. The internet is full of bad things, everybody can find something good inside of it ^_^
Perhaps it was both Dunks adventure in the north as well as Jon Arryn who were directly responsible for the Starks code of Honor
“Sup yo I know like winter has come or whatever but you see my dragon I brought? Wanna come help me fight a bunch of them or be labeled an oath breaker?”
27:15 HE DID IT, HE SAID THE THING
Queue da ting!
I think there are good points here but I came to a different conclusion. Is it more or less honorable to send your entire army to get roasted by dragons, or to hold them back strategically until they can be properly utilized? It seems like yes, this was an intentional choice, but in the end it (debatably) saved northern and vale lives.
I understand not wanting to get involved but then parading around and talking loud about honor, traitors and weaklings (Pups) to all the parties involved in one of the most destructive wars of Westeros was just hard to swallow. Good thing my boy Alyn Velaryon was not going to allow Cregan to have it his way and was ready with his fleet to cause mayhem if something happened to Corlys.
What proper use did the bulk of Cregan forces have? Besides, the Riverlords and the few winter wolves used their men properly and won the 5 most important battles of the war (defeating the lannister army, the KL army, the Reach army at tumblestone and finally the Baratheon army). They quite literally were probably more decisive than any individual dragon, just with foot soldiers.
Cregan should be happy him sending a token force that outperform in such a way shields the indignity.
Oh, this feels like an old school Preston Video
Love the intro. Up there with The Purple Wedding and Brienne, Gender & the Squishers!
Great video. People need to stop thinking of House Stark as "the house obsessed with honor". Ned was honorable (partly I think because of his upbringing in the Vale mixed with his trauma from the Rebellion). And this is partly what leads to House Stark's downfall. He let his honor stand before his political sense. And he was the exception. From what we've seen, most Stark lords were hardass pragmatists who did what was necessary to preserve the supremacy and survival of their house. Torrhen Stark bent the knee. Alaric played nice with Alysanne. Cregan Stark ensured he got to make the choices at the end of the Dance. And Rickard made in-roads to uniting the Lords Paramount against the madness of Aerys. And that isn't even taking into account all the horrible things the Kings of Winter did to ensure their rule over the North. Just ask all the exiled Blackwoods and the extinct Ambers, Greenwoods, and Frosts.
Yea to me I have a similar bent. I don't conceptualize the North as particularly cruel, but I do see it as different. They're just both isolated and huge, they and Dorne are the two kingdoms most differing from the way things are done in the rest of the kingdoms. People forget that honor isn't the only thing defining the Starks. The southerners in the show talks a lot about how the north is different. It's not actively unruly, but it's kind of a sleeping giant and tends to not care as much about seizing power on the throne. They're fine on their own in the North, thankyouverymuch. This aspect was even reflected in honorable Ned. He could have de facto taken the throne but didn't even care for it. And Jon Snow while technically being Targaryen was very much raised northern, and the "I don't want it" line, even if infamously bad, still embodies this. The north wasn't separatist, but they only really ever care about their own people and region, and didn't want to take the throne.
Rambleramble but I think the point is clear
I mean to be fair, the Blacks also didn't honor agreements. The Starks were promised a Targaeryen princess but received none. Also, the North is huge so it makes sense why it took a while to rally. Finally, it wasn't just the North that were dragging. The Vale was as well, and it's not surprising since the Dance was an incredibly messy affair, and many lords didn't want to make a mistake that would end in a dragonfire bath.
The North is huge and that’s why Robb managed to get his shit together in a few months instead of 2 years.
@fel_zharost It was different circumstances. The North was (almost) universally onboard with the fight, until Robb did made a few goofs. That clearly wasn't the case for the Dance
@@mixkid3362 there were few weeks maximum between Ned asking Catelyn to order his subjects start basic preparations like to strengthen Moat Cailin and Robb calling his banners.
@@fel_zharostIt was summertime when Robb called his banners and the harvest was already in.
Also Robb only called up a fraction of his northmen and they were almost entirely mounted.
Try again.
@@gerardjagroo you know that harvest season takes about 2 months, right?
The Reach was split in half between the Greens and the Blacks.
Aemond took the fighting to Harrenhall and the Riverlands.
All the others, why would they join? Because they gave their word under veiled threats? "Join me or I'll burn you down"
Cregan was based and redpilled! 😂
If the north and Vale were skimming they suffered hard as winter fucked them hard leading to the north going into massive debt to the ironbank and the Vale having a civil war
I just started watching this video but - as someone who's been watching your content for quite a while - I have to point out that that intro was your best one yet. So lovely!
This is the kind of content I subscribe for. Amazing, glad these kinds of videos are back
Ah, perfect timing Preston. Was seaching for something to listen to.
I guess you're searching again
At last the kind of video series we want from you, Preston, love you 🙏
I love your theory videos like this ! This truly made my day ! Old school Preston vid 🙏🏾🔥
Glad that you're making theory videos again!
Wake up babe, new Preston Jacobs theory video just dropped.
new preston jacobs FACT video
Honestly pretty accurate when considering the circumstances of the Seven Kingdoms. Constant wars, rebellions, and backstabbings will make a lord wary of committing his forces until the enemy is sufficiently weakened. If he is too eager, he will lose all his strength in the first few engagements and his house will go into decline, to be supplanted by a rival. Better to wait until his losses will be few.
And that's aside from how useless foot and mounted soldiers would be when faced with a dragon.
So great to get a new full-length, books-only analysis like your old videos! And a great one at that, like always :)
One nitpick I might make is that just because the Manderly's losses are noted in number of knights lost, does not outright mean they *only* sent knights.
LETSGO PJ theory video!!!
i ve missed those asoiaf theories! good job!
I have to take an hour ride, and you’re right on time with this one, Good Ser.
lucky hes not Stark, or hed still be just starting his first draft
This is excellent. In research, reasoning, and then a very clean presentation.
Finally a new theory video!
We kind of got an explanation for this in the tv series. Do note that Marin is an executive producer, so pretty much everything is giga official from him.
Cregan sees his duty to the wall as far greater than to the south because of the White Walker threat, so that is where his army is. The Winter Wolves are all he has to spare. He himself is at the wall with 1/10th of his stark soldiers while the others are preping for winter.
What a good day to see a new preaton video! And i just finnish firw and blood
Good stuff! Keep the videos coming
In the show, all the drama up to Rooks Rest has been described as a month, or a month and a half to two at best. Put that into perspective. Wow.
Fresh non podcast preston. hallelujah
Great video Preston!
I think most of this can be put down to the Dance being poorly written, with the excuse that the northmen were too busy stockpiling food for the winter only going so far to cover GRRM's ass. In any event, I doubt Cregan Stark is some conniving, self-interested guy, given that he is almost as much of an an author's pet as Daemon and Corlys. Also, GRRM probably wanted the northmen out of the way because he thinks Rhaenyra would have easily won the war with a Northern army.
15:42 The Winter Wolves were some of Team Black's most valuable assets, given that at First Tumbleton, they basically cause the Greens to lose the whole war by taking out Lord Hightower:
"Roddy the Ruin and his Winter Wolves sallied forth from a postern gate, screaming their terrifying northern war cries as they swept around the left flank of the attackers. In the chaos that ensued, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐎𝐫𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐥𝐝𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫.
As the singers tell it, Lord Roderick was bloody from head to heel as he came on, with splintered shield and cracked helm, yet so drunk with battle that he did not even seem to feel his wounds. Ser Bryndon Hightower, Lord Ormund’s cousin, put himself between the northman and his liege, taking off the Ruin’s shield arm at the shoulder with one terrible blow of his longaxe…yet the savage Lord of Barrowton fought on, slaying both Ser Bryndon and Lord Ormund before he died. Lord Hightower’s banners toppled, and the townsfolk gave a great cheer"
(The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Triumphant)
"the death of Lord Ormund Hightower had left them without a leader, and the lords who wished to command in his place were at odds with one another."
(The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Overthrown)
600 old northmen fighting through some 6000 reachers to kill the Lord of Oldtown shows that GRRM really loves the North and thinks that its people are so beyond badass that southerners can't hope to match them in battle, given that the North dealt the Greens one of their greatest blows by sending raggedy old men.
Doesn’t excuse the vale dragging their feet
Man got his army cut off by his two opponents then somehow went on to kill them both, George wasn’t being serious when he wrote the Dance.
What’s this a new series!?! Legendary
Glad to see a video like this again.
I never understood that about the north.
If during peace time and winter comes, the old just leave to go die in the snow. Why not just join the watch? It’s better then just going to die
a random preston jacobs video in my timeline? hell yeah!
I’ll be honest this is the most believable over your last bunch of videos, but still enjoy hearing your theories :)
Preston and DLB are simply the best around. Thanks for putting this content out.
Love the Stark stans in the coments drinking that copium, trying to justify how long it took by bringing Robb in.
omg, a preston video about a theory that isn't a stream. hype!
Thanks for putting a major plot point in the title of the video. There’s no one alive who hasn’t read Fire & Blood, after all.
I agree that the Starks clearly had plans for after the Dance, the hour of the wolf was a mass execution of the previous regime. Though you forgot that the Stark specifically said they needed to bring in the harvest before mobilizing en masse. Did they delay totally, but not for two whole years.
What I forgot to mention was the Cregan is lying about the harvest. They are half a year into winter with snows on the ground. There's no crops. In fact the snows were heavy when the Pact was made in autumn.
So really we should give D&D a break with the teleporting around Westeros in Got. It matters not whether you are right or wrong because GRRM doesn't even know his timelines. The only thing we do know is that the Starks have very shady past, as does every major house. Some of the hopeful lesser houses manage to hang in there, some manage to rise a little bit, many more die and fade into legends. Time is fluid in this world and if it makes little sense in the book, then HOTD just has to make the best of a conveniently obtuse written book.
Well, I question if this shows the starks to be shady. They are a northern house, and don't care that much about which Targaryen rules them. They were forced against their will to kneel to the King in the first place during Aegons Conquest. They are forced again by threat of dragons to partkae in a war that would kill thousands of innocent northmen. Their procrastination saved thousands of lives.
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
Unless I am wrong winter was either already hitting the north or was about to hit, which is why Dustin rode down with essentially his old volunteers that otherwise would be stuck home
Cregan was able to mobilize fine near the end of the war and that was the dead of winter.
@@PrestonJacobstheSweetrobin I think that the reason for. The delay at the beginning of winter is to make sure they have ample supplies when winter comes around
@@PrestonJacobstheSweetrobin This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
Finally we have returned to true Prestoros
ngl I needed this in this cycle thx
Didn't the Starks basically say they had to have time to bring in a harvest and try to plant another one before winter or else the north would starve?
Yeah they did. Still they only needed to send a couple more thousand.
Let the peasants starve just get the soldiers downs south ASAP to fight in Rhaenyra's futile war!!!
That seems to be Preston's attitude here. It's ridiculous
As a Lord, Cregan has a duty to protect his people, administer justice to them and to seek after their welfare.
None of this involves rushing them south to be bathed in dragonflame.
@@gerardjagroo I agree, I'm a massive Preston fan- he's big reason why I love ASOIAF so much, this is the first thing I've seriously disagreed with.
@@gerardjagroo true but they fully mobilized after most of the war was done. Fact is the starks sat on their asses longer than they had too. Compare that to the brave Lannisters who fought from the beginning all in. Even their lands got attacked by the ironborn and they still fought in the war
@@alexanderguerrero347 It just shows that Cregan was more wily and prudent than the Lannisters of that epoch.
Racing south to get cremated by dragonflame is just dumb
You are forgetting that almost the entire Dance of the Dragons happened during winter, which means it was nearly impossible at all for the Starks to send anyone but Winterwolves from the most southerly parts of the North. In both Roberts Rebellion and War of Five Kings, it was Summer. Winter started Maiden's Day 130, so in reality in 129 the North was desperately trying to get one or two more harvests in before winter, and it had been declared autumn before Viserys dies. It also makes sense that none of the Major houses were maintaining large Armies as a single Dragon could destroy them in an afternoon, and it does seem like all the Dance of the Dragon Land battles are much smaller than battles between major houses in the war of the five kings. Its clear that the Targeryans were forcing the Major houses to keep their Armies small.
I was meant to pick up my kid from daycare but just seen Preston Jacobs uploaded. He can wait a little longer.
Cregan was meant to marshal his banners and march south for Rhaenyra but just seen Preston Jacobs uploaded. She can wait a little longer.
“The seeds are strong” I think that is the only reason Aegon the Third survived.
the loremaster returns!
love this form of your videos
In the Norths and Vale's defense it was autumn and winter was fast approaching so they had to prepare for it
See how in the main story the North and Riverlands are suffering from a lack of food with winter fast approaching.....
This all can be explained by the fact that winter is approaching so most able men in the North are focusing all on harvesting their crops and storage of supplies for the winter. Harvesting and storage takes months especially when your society is a pre-industrial feudal society. And don’t get started on fermented foods like meats and vegetables also take months in order for them to be ready for storage. Logistics is everything in war knowing which supplies to use for your army and which to save for your people for winter requires both time and great organizational skills to achieve. Once this is done is takes a few months to gather all your banner men together since the whole North is so huge it’s the same size as the other regions of Westeros put together.
Preston is talking bull. He must have been high when he cooked up this nonsense.
Also even if Lord Stark purposefully delayed can you blame him? He has to look after the interests and welfare of his own people.
Rushing his people south to be bathed in dragonflame is the very opposite of his duty.
Rhaenyra should've made royal progresses around the realm while she lived at dragonstone and had her sons fostered in other kingdoms like the vale and the north or wherever else that way she would've had allies already in her pocket instead of sending her sons out after her father died.
Holy shit. An old school Preston video, love it!
Personally, I enjoy interpreting the Hour of the Wolf as a parallel to the Sack of King's Landing. With the extrapolation that the differences are not between House Stark and House Lannister, but Eddard and Tywin.
Preston the iconoclast. How dare you besmirch the honor of the Starks. Next I suppose you'll claim Daemon was some kind of hero in the Dance of the Dragons.
Crowned Rhaenyra
Urged caution against dragon on dragon warfare
Took Harrenhal
Took Stonehenge
Killed Vhagar
I’m genuinely thrilled about this timeline breakdown
Yaaay, an in depth theory video, I've missed these, don't get me wrong I love the fanfiction vids but I find the podcast type episodes a bit dull (no offence intended, they're just not to my taste)
YOOOO NEW THEORY VIDEO??? This is a pleasant surprise
I have a feeling season 2of House of the Dragon is going to reveal that the Starks were in on the Song of Ice and Fire during this era, it's likely armies needed to keep in the North just in case an attack from beyond the Wall happened.
The North had their eyes on North. They didn't march at haste to settle petty squabbles for a iron throne. They had a greater calling, to protect the land of the living.
There was nothing going on beyond the wall at the time
2024 preston back making theories ?!?!?! Fuck yesss okay 2024 is cooking
Great video Preston thank you for keeping the flame alive in the wait for TWOW.... which I am becoming convinced will never happen
finally a theory video
What could've actually happened - Jace meets Cregan just before dance of the dragons. George RR Martin forgot about them as he got busy with making up the Targaryen story. Then he suddenly remembered them when he was looking how to end this arc.
I miss your catchphrase, and am glad it's back.
I miss these detailed breakdowns!
Would be fun if this actually ends up being confirmed and turning out plot relevant to ASOIAF. I am kinda fond of theories about the Wild Walkers awakening as a result of Harrenhal or some unknown mess tied to the extinction of the Dragons or some particular Targ law. So I'd like it if it turns out that it could have been avoided had it not been for Cregan being particularly dishonorable. Could be fun it it also tied somewhat to Rickard's Southron ambitions as a compound in some form.
Oh gosh! Another series? Wrong about half, none, or all, this is amazing!
How is it possible that I missed this video ??