EVs Put Massive Dent in Gas Demand; U.S. Eases Battery Sourcing Requirements - Autoline Daily 3805
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
- Autoline reports breaking global car news, with great insight and analysis. Also, top auto executive interviews. We cover electric vehicles (EV), autonomous vechicles (AV) and internal combustion engine technology (ICE), as well as car sales & financial earnings snd new car reviews.
0:00 U.S. Updates EV Tax Credit Rules, More EVs Eligible
0:56 UAW Ratifies New Contract with Daimler Truck
1:59 Chinese Cars Account For 1/3rd Of Global Sales
2:44 EVs Put Dent in Gasoline Demand
4:02 France Boosts EV Sales Targets
4:34 France Says It Will Welcome BYD
5:13 U.S. Provides $100 Million To Small Auto Suppliers
5:48 Xiaomi Tweaks Gigacasting Production Process
7:02 Mercedes-AMG Introduces New Convertible
Story Links:
- EV Tax Credit Update: electrek.co/2024/05/03/us-upd...
- UAW Signs New Contract with Daimler Truck: www.reuters.com/business/auto...
- China Cars Account for 1/3 of March Global Sales: carnewschina.com/2024/05/05/c...
- EVs Put Big Dent in Gas Demand: www.reuters.com/business/ener...
- France Wants to Boost EV Sales: www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
- France Welcomes Chinese: www.reuters.com/business/auto...
- U.S. Provides Relief to Small Suppliers: www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-r...
- Xiaomi Designs Gigacastings for Accidents: carnewschina.com/2024/05/03/x...
- Mercedes-AMG CLE 53 Convertible: media.mbusa.com/releases/the-...
- To read the transcript for today's show click here: www.autoline.tv/daily/ad-3805...
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Misleading title.
EVs put a dent in THE GROWTH IN Gasoline demand.
Globally yes. The U.S. gas consumption is down. I do agree the title is a bit misleading because it’s not only EVs, it’s also driven by PHEVs.
@@tomm5936 PHEVs likely have little impact, since most people don't leverage the battery.
Yes, that's more accurate way to phrase it.
@@BTC_Minarchist OK I didn’t know that then I wonder why they even buy a PHEV. I admit I was speculating. I have no insights here.
@@BTC_Minarchist There are quite a few PHEV owners at work, we all leverage the battery like a religion. Privately owned PHEVs almost never use fuel if they can help it. Why pay more for fuel and put hours (km) on the range extender? Those figures where folks who don't plug their PHEVs in are from company cars where the drivers are given corporate fuel cards. There were a few PHEVs in the company fleet which did just that, we never saw them plugged in. They have since been replaced with HEVs when the leases ran out.
Our family's gas consumption is less than half what it used to be once we purchased a tesla in February. Its our go to car now. And a pleasure to drive compared to what it replaced.
what did it replaced?
@@robertbidochon7949 A 2009 Santa Fe. We didn't want to buy yet, but the old car was showing signs of failure. I really appreciate the new tech for safety and navigating tight spaces.
Try to remember those happy thoughts when you go to sell your EV in a few years and find out it is worthless.
Too bad your electricity consumption went up. And if you charge on public chargers at the highway-robbery rate they charge for electricity, your Tesla costs you more to drive per mile than an efficient hybrid.
@@markmeridian3360 We are producers as well as consumers of electricity. We live about 20 miles out of town and a simple commute uses about 11 kwh. A bit more depending on how much running around we have to do. Our rates are .1 to .15 per kwh depending on how much we use. Thats a little over a dollar per trip. Our solar averages 25 kwh per day and keeps us out of the .15 rate. This time of year we produce more than we consume. We have lots of room to install more solar if we need more.
The electric car has more utility. If I take my work truck to town, I think hard about whether its justified. Not so with the Tesla. We will get an electric work truck when the time comes. It will double as battery backup to keep our business going if the power goes out. At some point we may be able to do market manipulation, buying and selling electricity into the grid and making a bit of money.
The rate we get charged at a supercharger depends on time of day. The superchargers must be on time of use billing. Peak hours I get charged .4/kwh, but I have had early morning charges at .13/kwh. So if we were using a supercharger our trip to town would be about $4.5. Gas would cost about $10 for a similar sized car at our prices. 1.75/liter at our gas stations and I don't mind driving past them.
All stats in Canadian dollars
EVs keeping gas prices down daily
Nothing would spike EV sales like a significant increase in gas prices. Every gas company is busy modeling to see what gas price will results in the most income over time.
@@danharold3087 And gas is made from oil which is sold globally to the highest bidder. Energy demand will steadily increase for many years to come. EVs make a small impact on gas prices but not much.
@@ScottOstr If we ask the oil producers and their supporters the sky is the limit. But Global sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have been declining since 2017, when 85.9 million were sold. In 2022, only 59 million ICE cars were sold globally, which is a 5% decrease from 2021 and a 29% decrease from 2017. Opps
That can be a legitimate claim some time in the 2030s. OPEC+ adjusts production and thus aims to keep oil prices within a small range, so prices aren't too high or too low for their liking.
@@danharold3087 TFL just did a towing test comparing the Cybertruck to a Ram 2500. Charging the Cybertruck for the same exact mileage was $37 vs $25 in diesel for the Ram 2500.
Where we are 3 gas stations have closed. The one where we live closes for the winter. So much easier to charge at home than worry whether thd gas station 45 miles away will decide to be open.
It begins. Range anxiety for ICE.
With gasoline costing about twice what it should be selling for, I have drastically reduced the amount of miles I drive, paring down to essential trips. If there are more people out there doing the same thing, couldn't this affect the total amount of gasoline sold?
Correct. Also, as hybrid sales increase, people use less gas for the same trips. Most American households have multiple cars. If they drive their more efficient vehicle & leave their less efficient one parked, they will use less as well.
@@theevermind Yep this is be big reason, folks are leaving their big vehicles in the driveway or trading them in for HEVs mostly. Toyota and other HEV makers are leveraging their battery supply for much better CAFE numbers instead of selling a comparative tiny number of BEVs to a few battery hoarders.
Get an eBike for errands and cut that consumption further.
I heard too many stories of those things bursting into flames so I bought a 21 speed bicycle that operates on me power.
If all else being equal, but prices up, then demand will go down. That's like econ 101
Still, petrol consumption is measured in millions of barrels per day. It's mind blowing.
Something is off. The US produces from 10-12 million barrels of oil/day and consumes about 20 million barrels of oil/day. Globally, around 75-90 million barrels of oil is produced per day.
And subsides in a trillion dolars paid by tax payers without knowing it.
Also, a whopping 20-lbs of CO₂ is emitted for every gallon of gasoline burned!
That's not counting the additional emissions per gallon to explore, drill, refine, and distribute the stuff. Many fossil heads just assume the stuff appears by magic at their local gas station perfectly refined and ready to use. Keep in mind, ICE vehicles operate at a laughably pathetic nominal 20% efficiency.
The US consumes enough energy to refine its petroleum to power all its EVs several times over.
@@GG-si7fw I thought the US was a net exporter and the biggest global producer.
It is measured in barrels not gallons.
In California where EVs are popular the price of gasoline keeps rising. How can you reconcile this situation?
Maybe higher gas prices are driving EV demand.
Quite easily, you mark up your prices to cover the loss in sales volume, it keeps the scales balanced. That's business I'm afraid.
Oil company greed.
California gonna California, with special demands on gasoline blends and the refineries able to make the blends they want likely have lessened capacity. Also counties can raise taxes on gasoline, with the public none the wiser.
Leave California
Love this guy's presentation skills. He makes what's for me a boring subject, pretty interesting.
Chip off the old block he is!
Mercedes said nobody would ever want a computer screen in a car back in 2012. Now they are proud of their computer screens in their cars. Mercedes, no idea what sells or what customers want.
Then they found out they're cheaper than buttons.
@@jamesvandamme7786 Wait till they find out how cheap electric motors are compared to engines and transmissions!
Now their being banned in Europe.
lot's of people still feel the same way. I don't even like screens on appliances. Reminds me of a forum survey last year where 90% of new midsize truck owners hated GM moving light controls from the button to a screen on their vehicles.
Fourteen months commuting in my Bolt euv Lt has saved me a bunch of money, and it's had zero problems; Orion assembly did a great job. After buying my Bolt, I sold five gas and diesel vehicles, as I didn't want to drive them anymore. I love not having purchased any gas, diesel, or oil since I got my ev.
For a year now, I've been saying every million ev sold is a million less gas tanks
True.
Gonna be interesting to see if gas goes down because there's a glut, or gas goes up because refineries start closing down, less competition, and gas stations start to wither away.
@@jamesvandamme7786diesel will still dominate. I doubt refineries in the US will close down any time soon, since they refined a lot of crude for the international market.
@@jamesvandamme7786
As far as I know no new refineries have been built in Northern North America, since the 1980s.
I don't know if any have closed down since, but they're all getting older, so that's going to happen.
Once EVs reall take off, and they will, not building new ones will be seen a very smart move.
Only 1.2 million TOTAL EV's sold last year in the USA and it will be far fewer this year. Thanks for mathing.
One percent of vehicles on the road in the US are EV's. That's hardly putting a dent in gas sales.
In June of 2022, 9 billion barrels were consumed in the U.S. In July of 2023, it was 9.3 barrels. (Statista) Might want to recheck your statistics.
You might want to get some data from 2024.
@@ChitFromChinola but 2024 is not over yet...
The article said the rate of increase was slowing, so citing two old data points from mid-2022 and mid-2023 does not refute that analysis. The OP can get some monthly data from late 2023 and early 2024 to get the real picture, instead of just plunking in two numbers and some snark.
Might wanna check your knowledge. 9.3 (in 2023) could have been 9.7 without EVs.
Such a dumb comment
Which car is shown @1:48 and is that the engine? Looks rather unusual.
IDK Sean where you get your info, but the Chevron CEO just described increased demand for oil products on CNBC.
Oil is in a lot of products not just gasoline.
In Europe peal oil happened 20 years ago. Usage has been trending down since then. Not fast enough, but it's a start.
Like many people I'll consider an EV when they're solid state. Not only safer, but that results in an EV sedan then doesn't weigh as much as a pickup truck. In the 2030s infrastructure will actually be in place. Good stuff.
Great video. Would you do one on the billions of dollars the US spends to subsidize the gas and oil industry?????
In the United States, taxpayers pay around $20 billion each year to the fossil fuel industry. In 2022, the US oil and gas industry spent $106.6 billion in capital expenditure, which was a 36 billion dollar decrease from the previous year. In 2022, the fossil fuel industry also spent around $125.05 million to influence the government.
@@rp9674 Thank you. Many talk about the EV incentives but dont know or dont want to acknowledge the massive oil and gas subsidies...
EV 😂😂😂😂
Yes!! As well as the BILLIONS the US spends to subsidize alternative energy sources and electric cars!
I was just in a discussion with someone who was claiming all their subsidies is for new energy, false
3:00 yet the gas prices will stay the same and govt subsidies will continue to keep rolling into their pockets
Apparently, Supply and Demand - business model does not apply to Big Oil
It does not. And the funny thing is the pro capitalism crowd are generally pro oil as well.
So true. The chips are stacked in their favor.
Please enlighten the rest of the planet about these mysterious petroleum subsidies. US petroleum companies, investors, and government all seem unaware of them. Do you have some knowledge of some highly classified program? Or are you just spouting urban legends that some EV evangelist told you about?
@@fenceman53so you think battery powered vehicles will less expensive then gas? Your wrong. Just wait. Here in California it cost more to maintain battery vehicles. Electricity rates are ridiculously expensive here. The only way is to go hybrid. Ca. Residents can barely afford electricity rates.
@@MarcosGarcia-on4tu Wow, your feeble mind believes anything the fake media tells you about electric being more expensive than gas. Pls cite the research that proves your remedial theory. #WeWillWait
Norways's oil demand hasn't crashed despite record EV marketshare lmao
wonderful news on the gasoline growth front. Look forward to the day when nobody wants the stuff.
Amen.
there requires a sufficient supplement before ur dreams become reality. if you dont have a suggestion on what to use... then ur wishing for a fantasy.
@@smackout Only needs electricity. Charget at home. As the volume of gssoline decreasers the price will go up in order to maintain profit since fixed cost go up with salaries.. Wait until,the end of 2026. The world market will be completedly different than today. Most sales will belong to China manufacturers with names very few know today.. The US is way behind in that aspect, and the effect will be devastaing for US manufacturers (except Tesla, Rivian)
@@EnriqueThiele i think you have a lot more leaning to do in regards to the entire energy cycle. but if it helps you sleep.
That's a loooong way off. We do need much more nuclear. Renewable energy can't satisfy our energy needs in the short term.
Large diecastngs may be a lot more to remove to repair than a smaller part, probably worth the trade-off tho
NO. At least the Tesla castings have "breaking zones" and parts are manufactured to replace the broken section with a couiple of screws and nuts. China is just coping it, so they wil, also have crumble zones, easy to replace. Scrap metal is recycled.
Pray you find a functional charge station oh my/.
I have an EV and I only go to gas stations to buy a burrito now. Will be exciting to see the Tesla semi go into full production .
If they can get the infrastructure in place and it's reliable that will put way more of a dent into oil demand than people driving their Tesla 3s. I was hoping they'd switch away from lithium and cobalt batteries but that's probably years away.
At the personal level my direct consumption of Petrol (Gas) has dropped from over 1000 liters a year to zero since I went EV. (10 years ago)
Nice. You're one of many.
Same here, I started driving a Ev late 2012 and never looked back. I still have a PU for our small travel trailer, but my gasoline usage is very very low for over a decade
@@phileasler5401 It seems rather simple that when a person stops buying ICE and Gas then demand for those products decreases. Sorta explains the hate level, I think.
ur not factoring the consumption to produce ur said EV? take the blindfolds off mate. i do electric vehicles and even i know that it isnt sustainable.
@@smackout You're misinformed with BS.
Current administration added hybrids to the list of tax incentives to allow legacy auto to catch up. Shades of 2008.
Have not purchased a drop of gasolene in over a year....
I'm a PROUD Gasoline user...for my lawnmower
Why dont they think hybrids? More economical?
Gas cars and trucks are for people that want to pay half down for their vehicle and the rest on payments. At 3600.00 a yr on a credit card. For gasoline, it doesnt take long before you pay twice the vehicles asking price. Be a Slave to the oil industry. Plus the large subsidies the oil industry gets. To keep gas prices so low? means half your income tax bill goes for gas too.....
What's really wild for my EV - I installed a second baby solar array - 2.5kW for it. That generates 3mWh per year, enough for me to drive 10,000 miles on (but I drive 9,000 a year). Cost me $2700 after tax credit. ROI is just about reached (later this year it should hit!). Then I'm driving on free energy for 20+ years...good luck doing that with oil!
If so the price did not drop.
2:51 - Gasoline demand growth could be cut in half. (still growing ) 2018 might have been peak gasoline.
Yes , it was also the peak of ICE cars sold.
@@EnriqueThiele 2018 was the peak of new consumer vehicles sold, regardless of where the energy comes from. The average consumer vehicle on the road now is 12.5 years old. When the Great Recession started the avg age was 10 yrs old. There's still tons of demand for 10-15 yr old Civics, Camrys.
Prices usually drop when demand drops but gasoline prices keep going up. 🤔
Supply is controlled by a cartel, with help from oil drillers.
America should be able to compete on the open market.
... to _better_ compete ...
Sure, where is there an open market ??
Been driving my Tesla for 11 years it’s comforting, not going to gas stations ever again
Can you show us on the doll where the gas station hurt you? 😂
@@Carl_Jr Sure in my wallet
with the new low cost EV from china the latest bargaining from the UAW could make eit almost impossible for domestic pproducers to compete in the EV market.
Hmm, Rivian is supposed to get a large amount of money from the state to build that so called new vehicle, I call the 80's Plymouth Horizon. 😊
376 million *gallons* per day, not barrels.
No, it hasn't, and Gas $ is up.
You flashed an image of a Western Star tractor while you were discussing Deimler Truck labor negotiations. Wasn’t Western Star sold to the Canadian government many years ago? Have I missed something that has gone on with that sale? Last I heard about it Canada was suing Dimler because owning Western Star sucked and was actually costing taxpayers a lot of money to keep running.
Then why is gas so high 😅
Is this even worthy of a debate
So, EVs are putting a massive dent in gas demand, yet, you don't hear that in the media, all they show is higher gas prices maybe ask why the prices are higher, there's plenty of crude oil in the global system, so what gives
There should be standardized battery solution BY NOW!!!
Not a chance. We can only guess what a battery will look like in 10 years.
Probably some or a tiny bit of the reduced oil demand could be attributed to EVs , but given how few EVs there are on the road compared to ICE cars , my guess is the reason is more likely the downturn in the economy and inflation.
It is a well known fact that, in tuff times people tend to not spend on unnecessary things like going out .
We are in similar economic conditions in my country, and presently in my household, a tank of juice is lasting double the time it normally would because we are trying to make a buck stretch further , and sadly I don’t see these economic conditions getting better in the short term.
Are Politicians going to wait to deal with lost gas taxes due to flat sales and last sales due to EV not contributing to road tax?
Ev has a separatye tax on their license.
They've been complaining about that for a long time, saying they can't fix roads because they don't get enough gas taxes.
But it's more than that. There's also billions in oil leases, royalties, fees, etc., that the industry pays, and if that shrinks, then govt will make it up elsewhere.
most roads are paid with the general fund, gas taxes are a very small portion of that
Cars are a minuscule road wear problem.
EVs are overtaxed for road use at the DMV / Secretary of State. I pay an extra $200 or $250 every year, even though gas tax wise I would only be spending about $100 - $150.
Demand for gasoline may go down but prices will remain high.
Why is gas not cheaper than ?
Taxes taxes taxes
As noted in the video, global demand for gasoline is still growing. The US exports a lot of gasoline and diesel.
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela...
It is cheaper.
As with all products, the producers of a product can adjust their production to mitigate changes in demand. And in the case of oil, many of the largest producers (OPEC and OPEC plus) operate outside of the prohibition on collusion in US and EU antitrust law.
They have all gone mad
Great show I watch everyday and have been for a long time. Unless you’re doing it on purpose you’re pronouncing the VP first name wrong.Usually its Republicans trying to make fun of her that pronounce it the way you have been.Keep up the great shows both you and your Dad.
I have a 1993 Oldsmobile Achieva scx with the w 41 high output Quad 4 I have a spare motor and my car is in great condition because I know how to work on it myself the engine is modified a little bit about 225 horsepower it's just a 2.3 litter dohc four-cylinder no Turbo with a 5-speed manual transmission fast enough for me the only way I will get an electric car is if I'm forced to
Well good for UAW. Wow 8 bucks an hour increase for the lowest paid.
Wonder when those of us on a fixed income will get that increase. Don’t suppose they will price themselves out of business would they.
Yeah I can afford to buy a new car but it sure doesn’t put me in the mood.
those increases will make workers get laid off, since they can not afford to pay the workers that much.
LOL you don't get it. That $8 hr raise will directly impact inflation and your fixed income just shrank. Again.
5:30 I don't think that's an EV transmission.
Saying that EV growth accounts for a 50% drop in gasoline demand growth from 23 to 24 sounds like nonsense. EV's are going to account for something like 7-8% of cars sold in the US this year. The numbers don't even come close to adding up...
Numberes are misleading 50% of the expected normal grouth, ecept that ICE sales are declining. while ev are increasing. Hybrids also reduce trhe amount of gas needed.
@@EnriqueThiele Yep, the increasing number of HEVs has a bigger impact on fuel consumption. A company like Toyota can make 40+ HEVs or four to five PHEVs for every one BEV with their limited battery supply and high annual sales numbers. When all these vehicles are daily driven an average of 40 km a day that adds up to a lot of fuel savings compared to one BEV driver hoarding hundreds of km of batteries they will not need in daily driving.
@@anydaynow01 HEVs are ICE. They are dangerous trash that should be illegal to sell. Insane repair costs out of warranty. Like putting a diesel engine and a gas engine in the same car so you can use either fuel. It can be done, but why would you?
Hybrids are selling very well again, a trend that's going to keep rising. The upcoming Camry will be hybrid only, perhaps the RAV4 as well. Given their known reliability they'll sell well and make a big dent in the gasoline consumption. The premium paid for a hybrid version of vehicles has shrunk over the years, so the time to break even for the extra expense is very reasonable now. Hybrids are now the most reliable vehicle class. Kudos.
@@EvilMonkey7818 So, when Europe makes it illegal for Fleet cars to be Hybrids... how many will sell? Companies buy almost 90% of Hybrids in Europe for fleet cars, right?
Very misleading statistics..
Without the full context, it's very easy to mislead with statistics..
Partial truth...Maybe. Compared to 2019, ICE cars are now much more fuel efficient, there are more hybrids and people are driving less. So demand for gas is less.
Meanwhile people who own EVs are driving more than they did before.
ICE cars did not become more fuel efficient compared to 2019. Even if it were true, it would be dwarfed by the car bloat effect.
When I drive my EV to go to the grocery store, I can’t measure the expenses too small but if I drive my gas car which is a Honda four-door I know I’m going to spend about four dollars for the gasoline just to go to the grocery store 5 miles awayI’m telling you I cannot even measure the electricity that the car uses. I don’t see it on the bill. It might be five dollars a month. I don’t know.
The government gives $ to car manufacturers to change to ev and change the tools that make parts!:(((
Then they opt to make Hybrids.
The dents will get bigger.
Hate to tell you Autoline, but Tesla has replaceable crush zones on their castings too. There are indexed areas on the crush bars where the damage area can be cut out too and a replacement piece bolted on in its place. Yes the drillout hole indications for the bolts are already there on the casting.
Xiaomi's similar solution may be faster to repair but may actually require more material regardless of the amount of damage....therefore more costly overall.
Didn't Sean say in the last autoline episode that Tesla was changing its mind concerning these giga castings?
They are junk and weak quality. They are literally falling apart like their axles.
@@paul5683 Tesla was contemplating making some more affordable cars by casting the entire front, back, and sides all in one big casting. I believe Sean called it a "megacasting".
Right now Tesla only casts two major parts of the underbody and have decided to just keep doing that for their newer, more affordable, line of cars. I think the media is calling this as "Tesla abandons large casting" or some such fodder. In reality they may have found that it might not save them all that much time and money to make it worth it.
The now fired quality team thinks casting cracks are fine! Ship em!
@@bobbbobb4663 LOL. Actually the head of the charging group was recently swing under Elon as a direct report. Two weeks later she and her whole team is fired. One has to wonder what Elon found out? Tesla has lots and lots of teams, but I've never heard of one with 500 members.... in Tesla that is a monstrosity. Usually teams are less that 7 people.
Gasoline sales will keept decreasing in direct proportion to ev sales%. Air will clean it self at the same rate as ev sales grouth.
Unfortunately, what makes electricity? You make a product dependent on something. Control the flow and price etc... every aspect... Now we use fuel to make electricity and batteries and parts, send it through plants and wires and transformers etc...
Tired narrative. Last year, 90% of new power production was solar and wind. The last coal-fired power plant built in the US was built in 2013. Now, coal-fired power plants are being decommissioned. Unsubsidized solar is the lowest cost of electricity production, so it is winning.
Congratulations to the UAW and Auto Workers for their new contract with Daimler Truck! Now let’s hope they will win in Tuscaloosa next week. Remember every worker deserves to receive a fair portion of profits combined with fair treatment!!!
Every consumer deserves to pay $1000 more for their car so that people who don’t have a high school degree can earn as much as a family physician
All they’re doing is pricing themselves out of work, and making it more and more feasible to automate out the workforce. Humanoid robot manufacturing is coming much faster than people are willing to admit. I work in automation, and I know exactly what’s coming.
Fain too sacred to organize BingeCo! Did Adrian pay off Fain!
Yup, all you have to do is look at Chinese auto factories. Workers will get higher wages but there will be far fewer of them needed. It's already happened with fast food workers in states that raised minimum wage to $20+.
@@juliahello6673 Don’t be ridiculous, according to Glassdoor, the average salary of a medical doctor in the U.S. is $1,65,347!!!
We keep producing MORE THAN ENOUGH to make sure there IS enough. When all we gotta do is the fill the tank of a properly working vehicle:(
Personally I don't think it's the EVS that are driving down gas consumption. I think people just can't afford the gas. So the trip from your house to the store back to your house to another store back to your house to another store just are not happening anymore. People are planning their day with their car and making one complete trip out of it.
The reduction of gasoline sales i=due to ev is the same as the 5 of ev cars sold. There is less driving on ice cars for the reason you mention. On the ev side they drive a lot more since daily transportation is cheap.
I think EVs are having an impact, but you make a great point. It's probably a combination of the two. I know people that avoid long road trips that didn't think twice about it in the past, mostly due to the cost of gas. Not good.
If you think gas is expensive, move to Europe.
Get ready for gasoline prices to keep going up. Oil refineries have to distill millions of gallons of gasoline to make it profitable given their thin margins. As demand for gas falls, oil refineries will find it harder to make their margins on gas so they will raise prices. This will result in more EV purchases and even less gas sold. As this accelerates, refinery after refinery will decide it's not worth it and will turn away from refining gas all together.... changing over to other products completely (like paint thinners, etc). Some may even switch over early because they see the writing on the wall.
Meanwhile geo political issues, like Venezuela's meltdown, may take more crude oil off the market further increasing prices.
Result: A rise in the rush to EVs as gas prices soar well over $7/gal. Then Rinse and Repeat.
It's over folks...ICE cars will in just a few years be super expensive to drive, dinosaurs that are only owned by people like Jay Leno for museums.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Wow, I want some of what your a smoking.
No one is buying EVs anymore. Everyone has realized they are a scam.
It is normal for OPEC to cut production when prices drop to avoid selling oil for less money. OPEC never lets the west enjoy lower prices, they cut supply to raise them back up. The US has cheaper prices than other countries because we have an over supply of domestic natural gas so anything that can use natural gas is using it.
@@_PatrickO Agreed, this is why I concentrated on refineries. No matter the price of oil, the refineries will have to start continually raising prices just to keep their margins, regardless of the price of oil. Their margins are made on how many gallons they sell, not the overall price of the gallon.
One problem with that, refineries will refine for all products, regardless of gasoline demand. You can't get the other products without producing some (most?) of the lighter ones. It is a fallacy to think we will stop refining because of ev's, give all the things we use petroleum for. Less will be consumed (maybe?) by vehicles, but the lighter refined products will find uses somewhere, maybe as cheaper gasoline if no better profitable use is found.
@@nickmcconnell1291 Untrue. Not once did you even list the break even point for these refineries per price of a barrel so it is impossible for you to have a point. You are talking in pointless generalities. It can go lower, OPEC is managing a finite resource with limited lifespan. They have to balance the price they sell the oil vs how they they think they can still sell oil for. OPEC does not want the price to go lower than the minimum pricing they have determined still helps them maximize what they will get. When oil demand really starts to fall, they will have needed to have made as much money as they could to try to survive.
We all know Gas as fuel for vehicles will be phased out, the sooner the better, and if we dont convert legacy auto factories to BEV production the Chinese will fill that void.
No it wont. No fuel is more powerful vs being transportable. EVs are a pipe dream that are horrible for the environment.
@@wadewilson6628No they aren't. You're misinformed but that won't matter.
@@wadewilson6628yes, gasoline has a very high energy content per volume. The problem is that ICE has a 25% efficiency in converting that energy to motion. Conversely, electric motors have an 85% energy conversion efficiency.
We don’t know this
Building a EV is as easy as any electronic appliance， you just connect the motor to the wheel, and engine is more complicated and we should not be fooled to give up that technology, let Chinese power everything with the dumb battery， let them power their aircraft carrier with batteries and they will be doomed
👍
China is 1/3 of the global car market. I don't see that selling 1/3 of of global sales is a huge accomplishment.
But war is more cost effective
I want to know.
Remember, when you hear sales percentages, they never mention the cars already on the road. I'm guessing the "EVs on the Road" are a very small percentage. I never hear existing cars mentioned. I'm not against EVs, I just think it's going to be a lot longer than they think.
Yup. It should be considered illegal or at least as "lying" when they mention just percentages.
Ice vehicles sales peaked in the u.s in 2017(during a growing economy at that) and the ice vehicles that did sell were likely more efficient than the ice vehicles that went to the scrap yard.
Yes, but while EV sales might be putting only a small dent in the overall fleet numbers, people might be preferentially driving their shiny new EVs, especially for everyday commuting.
@@dansanger5340Yep. Two-car families, with one EV and one ICE, are driving their EV as much as possible. The difference in running cost is staggering.
The combustion car is relegated to being used for longer trips, and where two cars are needed at the same time.
@@JD-yx7beThat's hard to believe with as many of these four door pickup trucks that make up the majority of the sales at most dealerships. I know for a fact that those big vehicles get really poor gas mileage.
Why do you people feel so threatened by gasoline?
7:45 - An AMG 53 with just what ?
3 l V6 - what a crap of downsized machine. Quite the opposite what the had sold before and they must even hide it under 5.3 instead of the usual AMG 3.0
Stupid move and weaknees, only idiots would buy these cars compared with those engines they had sold before. Makes no sense for a company that wanted to offer a sports car spirit but delivers an empty hull instead.
I pray the UAW comes to oakville ontario!!! 🙏
Be careful what you wish for
EV’s manufacturing will be faster and cheaper especially when USA build battery factories vs buying from expensive 3rd parties in Korea and China
Depending on foreign oil makes a country vulnerable to foreign control.
It's been that way for more than half a century.
Wallstreet determines the price. Evs lower the price by speculating that oil will have less demand. So if you want to drive gas cars you better prey that EVs become the majority soon. Every market needs competition. Want cheap gas? then you want a healthy EV market.
We gotta wean ourselves off fossil fuels. Energy independence will mean less war.
No really in my opinion. If global oil and gas demand goes down, another sought after resource will take its place.
@@carl8790 That is one opinion.
But don’t you keep reporting on falling EV sales? Then why is gas demand falling ? 🤨
the cumulative fleet of EVs are still growing. New EV sales are still growing just at a much smaller rate than most projected
@@JD-yx7be Yes, it’s a shame that’s not how they report it.
@@MarksElectricLife A single quarter with Tesla lower yoy and the sky is falling.
@@danharold3087 Yep, these newfangled EVs will never take off ! 😉
@@MarksElectricLife Yah you betcha old son.
Old school adherent to way of making chassis for cars are not convinced of benefits of Gigacasting citing repairability.Most cars involved in collisions that sustain major damage to frame are TOTALLED by the Insurance!.In Canada cars repaired after such collisions are titled "Branded" meaning they are worth less than half a car not in any collision. I know because i bought writeoffs and repaired such cars and sold them, and not worth the effort and money!
Exactly. Technically, aluminum can be welded and coerced back into shape, but that requires somewhat more skill and technical expertise to accomplish. Thin webbed castings are going to be more difficult to repair just because of labor costs.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 Your missing the point. Castings or no these cars are being totaled.
How much of the price of repairing your car is due to the fact that you have insurance ?
If it does not makes sense think about the fact that with some medical insurance policies the copay is more expensive than the cash price.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 Do you realize many cars are totalled because the Electronic gizmos & ADAS SENSORS, airbags headlights ,and repairing the expensive ENGINE parts cost money and labour? And that is not even getting into frame damages! I should know, a friend of mine is an Auto Body Shopowner/ Collision Shop.
What a wonderful world playing with battery powered smartphones on wheels 😂😂😂😂😂
You will not believe the changes in the ev market by 2026. Lot of China brands will become popular names.
even gas vehicles are computers on wheels, sit in anything made in the last 5 years
What will happen to the gasoline when all cars are electric
what will happen to blockbuster when everyone streams?
@@JD-yx7be what to reply when answer to a question is different question ? 🤔
@@prilep5 yes
Gasoline will never fully go away. People still makes buggy whips and stagecoaches.
@@JD-yx7be Q: what will happen to blockbuster when everyone streams? BETTER Q: what will happen when the bulk of the population develops the wisdom and intelligence (like the older generations possess) to STOP making the classic mistake of "Apples V. Oranges" comparisons...?
A total of 278,870,463 personal and commercial vehicles were registered to drivers in the U.S. in 2022. There are currently 2,442,270 electric vehicles registered in the United States. That is LESS THAN 1% of all cars on the road! The demand for gas is NOT being lowered by EVs by more than that 1%! Demand is down because Americans are traveling fewer miles due to the economic stress we are living in!
True , and with passing time the gas prices will continue climbing sice the more ev sales the les cars that use gasoline. A small amout at first but the effect will grow after 2026 when very cheap ev are foe sales with higher range and sofisticated software.
@@EnriqueThiele Time will tell. I feel that Bio-fuels will be more prominent in our future. I'm not saying EVs won't have a share of the market. Some people really liked their beta max VCRs, however, the masses adopted VHS.
3:43 This statement makes me wonder who is funding this guy.
I have 3 vehicles 2 gas and 1 ev the ev is the one driving everywhere. That is a very common situation so going off registrations is foolish
@@EnriqueThiele That is not how prices work in a free market.
Gas prices in CA will increase due to nothing more than added state taxes, regardless of demand, supply, etc. The continued devaluation of the dollar will also cause the dollar price to go up, but not its relative price to other goods/services.
If demand decreases, then supply will exceed it, so prices will go down. Supply will shrink to match demand, and the supply that will be cut is the most expensive oil to produce, so overall, the overhead for that gas will not go up. There are plenty of places in the world where it's still dirt cheap to produce oil, so the price definitely can drop. Less effective oil companies will fail leaving only the strongest (and best run) to meet demand.
However, if govts make it illegal to produce oil, that will artificially reduce supply, and if it is more than the drop in demand, then prices will rise. However, OPEC won't ban oil production, so don't expect that to happen. Instead, just expect more money from your country to flow to the middle east.
It's economically well documented that as alternatives to gasoline will keep the price of oil lower for longer, which will perpetuate its use.
Electrics are helping push down on gasoline prices. Do EVs!
He sounds like the other older guy.
I can't imagine it is much of a dent because I see very few EV's on the road.
depends what state you are in. Many mid west states are 1-2% and many coastal states are above 10% of new car sales. I'm in Maryland and it is around 15%
@@JD-yx7be % of fleet not % of sales is far more relevant and even in California, they are too afraid to release that data so they must be embarassed by how small it is.
Of course not since the global fleet is huge and there are relatively few EVs on the road. That doesn't change the fact that EVs continue to take both market share and an ever increasing percentage of the total miles driven.
@@jerrymiller9039 5% of the fleet is replaced every year with new cars sold and old cars entering the scrap yard. 5% means it roughly takes 20 years to replace the fleet. 2017 is when ice cars sales peaked and has been on a steady decline since. Battery prices are falling every year while ice prices keep increasing. There is going to be a point where they reach price parity without subsidy.
@@snookmeister55 After over twenty years of EV roll out usually with large taxpayer funded rebates on the hood it is still unusual to see one. That is not very impressive and they have mad it politically polarized by trying to ram them down peoples throats so now there is natural resistance to them.
Bad economies put a dent in people’s ability to drive. 😂 Tesla didn’t lay off thousands of people because sales are up.
re: "Tesla didn’t lay off thousands of people because sales are up...."
@@phillyphil1513 Need to see Tesla Q2 numbers. I expect to see yoy growth but not the growth we would like to see.
The Norway gov released a report last week that even though they have an 80% adoption rate to EV their fossil fuels used has not dropped. I call BS that at least in the US the drop in gas sales is because of the EV adoption , people are driving less .
The unused fuel is being sold to someone else. It does not just go away instantly. If that excess fuel can still be sold for a profit, supplies won't be reduced.
See Electrek, Norway, October 20, 2023 for an opposing point of view.
Norway is an oil exporter
Fuel sale is down 18.4% in last 12 months in Norway
Gasoline demand is down 1/3 in Norway since 2013. Clearly EVs are having a direct effect on gasoline demand. Oil prices are a result of worldwide economies which have been generally strong for years now and keeping overall prices up. Rather than rely on sources paid for by the oil industry and their spin, I suggest searching for sources that present the other side of the coin for more information.
If EVs were any good, they wouldn't need any tax incentives.
1) All subsidies should disappear.
2) The oil industry receives more subsidies than the EV industry. They should all disappear as well.
Sometimes we need to subsidize an industry to jumpstart it (think Rural Electrification Act to make electricity available to all) or for reasons of national security (think farm subsidies to ensure that our agricultural supply chain stays intact).
@@martyscholes119 I'm sorry, but I don't agree. And, government will always find a noble reason to spend our tax dollars. Just my opinion.
Would be true if the US was an isolated market but it is not.
We either need 100% import tariffs on imported cars or totally ban imports.
The you can start removing the tax credits.
the incentive haven't kept up with inflation. The $7500 tax credit started in 2010 under Obama, today they are still $7500 when everything from potatoes to rent have increase over 50% since that time
A massive dent? Hell, were just getting started. The US currently has 9M Evs on the roads. I dont know
about other states but California has 100M licenced vehicles. Now would be a good time to dump your
oil co stocks.
!
I agree. The writing is on the wall, and it isn't JUST EVs, there's also transit, e-bikes, and e-scooters too.
All of these alternatives to fuel vehicle transportation, are having an effect.
Why buy a $50,000 car, when all you need is a $5,000 e-bike?
Transportation is changing in big ways this century.
Chinese EV tsunami hitting European shores at lower msrp vs competition. Stellantis bought huge shares Chinese leap motor to rebadge in Europe
massive dent in gas demand? more like gas prices reducing consumption at the pump as no one is filling their tanks.
the vehicle consumes the same rate of fuel no matter what level the tank is filled. If you only fill 1/2 way then you have to go to the station 2x as much
@@JD-yx7be its called trip planning. more people end up doing it to save their dollars instead of just say. ducking to the shops for bread and milk only. you go the the station less and get 2x done. but at the cost of convenience. im all for giving up some convenience for a greater good. but all this false BS about batteries being 'green' needs to be addressed truthfully.
@@smackout I don't care about it being green other than my wallet. My aunt owns a 11 year old EV on original battery with 90% capacity. I plan on buying a used EV for my next vehicle. And i get my electricity from coal and support the local coal workers
@@smackout 🤦
@@BTC_Minarchist quit hitting urself. not healthy lol.
You're starting to piss me off.
The reason battery will win is price. I was good at physics in high school. Combustion technology never was here. Think about the last 5 years. Gas costs did not come down. Meanwhile battery costs dropped dramatically. I remember it was over $300 a kilowatt. Now less than $60.
Materials and the chemistry can bring the cost much further down. Ford and GM are way behind and losing money on ev.
But you are a tech person, using reason. You can see many people care about things other than reason.
@@Bryanbkk yes but again price rules.
Legacy has unions, dealers, and fossilization to deal with.
EXTREMELY MISLEADING
Honestly, I can't tell ... is this information or satire ?????
What is tripping you up?
Is this a parody account? EVs are a tiny percentage of the total number of cars on the road, and sales have fallen recently.
Gas companies need to lower prices so ICE cars become a better deal for the 102 million Americans who are renters and cannot have EVs. You know, 1/3 of the population.
Gasoline demand is inelastic. So increases in price aren’t going to impact consumption by much.
I’ll believe that gas is decreasing due to price when SUV and truck sales drop below 50%.
The introduction of EVs has increased the elasticity.
trucks are getting more fuel efficient too. In the u.s about 5% of vehicles enter the scrap yard per year and replaced by new car/truck sales. 5% a year mean 20 year to replace the entire fleet. Trucks 20 years ago got around 15mpg newer trucks get 20mpg or more and now have hybrid offerings.