Tesla Is Taking A Massive Risk.
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- Опубликовано: 16 апр 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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Nobody should be depressed about Tesla stock right now on the brink of Autonomy. This is the moment to be the most Bullish ever. Right now i'd just like to appreciate short-term opportunities that I could take advantage of with 100k ..
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I also think that Tesla created somewhat of an Osborne effect with the new model 3 for those buyers that were going to purchase the existing model y. I have spoken to so many people who test drove the refreshed model 3 and now they said that they are waiting for the refreshed model y before purchasing.
As do i.
I think people are not in a rush to buy a new car if they don’t need to especially with these interest rates.
I'm also waiting
Agree
I have the Model 3 Highland. It is well worth waiting for!
I really appreciate you Farzad. I love your insight and presentation. You are measured and methodical without being boring lol
00:40 Horse carriage is more autonomous than a normal car. Let that sink in...
You had to pay the carriage driver, too.
@@BogeyTheBear Not my horse. It knew the way home.
Carriage had a horse, car has a driver. It’s exactly the same. Each meat matter has significant costs in operating.
@@XeonSX one pees on the street, the other one... too
Folks who had a carriage for conveyance had a driver to operate that carriage rather than drive it themselves.
You drove your own horse-drawn rig if you _worked_ that rig as a cart or wagon.
If you think from Tesla's perspective - you cannot declare that you are going to release budget car and expect not to have Osborne effect. It will take at lease 16 to 20 months before there is a real volume production once you announce the product. That is a very long period to escape an Osborne effect. Instead if they announce that the product is something else, but do not disclose until the last minute that volume production catches up for sale of the product (the budget car) - it will both have a surprise effect as well as create demand for the product design not vastly minimize Osborne effect.
It is a highly unusual practice for manufacturers of just about anything to announce a product well in advance of its release for this and other reasons. It's just about a guaranteed way to lose revenue on your existing line up and at the same time remove any excitement from the market when the product is finally released. It's great for keeping share prices up, in the short term, though.
In addition - the Robotaxi is that same platform, i.e. the same production line. So once Robotaxis are coming off the line every 20seconds it will be easy to switch to the Model 2, which is already designed and prototyped. When you announce it, it will be like Apple - available from Friday for anyone who wants one because they have built up an inventory.
Meanwhile the stock will tank because your basically going to tell Wall Street to pound salt as you'll make a 25k "some day" when you F-ing feel like making it and not a second before.
Farzad, I don't understand why you say this is a change. If you listen to Elon Musk on Tesla's quarterly earnings, he has always made it very clear that Tesla is all about automation. He very clearly said that FSD is what would determine if Tesla stock is worth thousands of dollars a share or zero. Makes no sense to make a $25k car over a robot taxi. If I can invest $20k to get a return of $25k or I can invest that same $20k and get a return of $40 or $50 or even $60k every year for years the choice is a no brainer. I think most people don't grasp the magnitude of FSD. It will massively transform all aspects of society. Not only FSD but automation as a whole. The next 10 to 20 years are going to be extremely exciting, and Tesla has positioned itself to be at the forefront of that seismic transformation. Why so many people don't see it is beyond me.🤔
I don't think Uber/Lyft drivers will be too excited about Robo Taxi. These "savings" will mostly benefit the company that buys Robotaxi fleets.
It was Autonomous Driving alls along ?! Wow what a way to Make it the Primary Point of your Company to be Delayed years and years , wait I heard Apple is Delaying their Next New iPhone till 2030 😂 . Cmon it wasn’t Clear from the Start at alls , if it was what a way to Enter the Market by NOT entering the Market Clean.
@@PromiscuousBoy it was delay years and years because achieving autonomous driving is a monumental task, and the fact that you compare that to the releases of an iPhone shows me how little you understand the subject.🙄
Like many said, current Uber units=1mil. Assume robotaxis are immediately approved everywhere. So, Tesla makes 1 mil in U.S. in 1 year. It’s max, some existing cars can be used as robotaxi too. So, what Tesla is going to manufacture after this 1 year. No more robotaxis needed. Why leave the money on the table by not selling cars for personal use?
@@tleo3333 Because building cars require a lot of capital and resources, it will be easier for them to outsource that and just license the FSD software and concentrate on humanoid robots, Ai and software.
FARZAD: I live in middle of Mexico. My 2 cents. I agree FSD is the future, but for where and when? USA is very rich compared to other parts of the world, meaning the number of people that have extra money for FSD in other parts of the world is very limited, even if it is safer. FSD will not become mandatory for a long LONG time, so in poorer countries the take rate of FSD will be much smaller. Also the road rules in Countries like Mexico are not really enforced, so if you train FSD to drive like the people, then that means training it to drive illegally which the government probably wouldn't allow, and for a Tesla FSD to drive following all rules would piss off a lot of people and create many problems. Places like Mexico / India, need a low cost vehicle MUCH more than they need FSD and it is my opinion that FSD take rate will be substantially less, orders of magnitude less in countries like this. I understand if the Model 2 needs a delay for a CATL factory that is producing next gen batteries, but it is my opinion that the Model 2 is more important than S / X/ 3 / Y / truck, COMBINED. The model 2 would be the vehicle for the people for the masses, and if Tesla steps away from that..... then Tesla is more about the money and less about helping people and less about the future. To have the mind set that the way FSD will happen in the USA is even remotely similar to how FSD will progress on other countries is a MAJOR mistake, IMO. Also the Model 2 can't be just a smaller Model 3, it has to be designed for the roads / terrain of 3rd world countries, places where roads are not necessarily paved, where BIG speed bumps and potholes are common, dirt roads, rock roads, conditions are simply harsher in other countries and the vehicle needs to be designed for that, NOT a city show piece. Also a more rugged and and higher vehicle would help in Countries that have snow. Speaking of snow, are there videos of FSD videos of driving in Canada while it is snowing? Driving in snow depending on if it is light and fluffy, wet and slushy, hard and compact, big and sticky, driving in snow is more a art than a science, so a vehicle with more space below it and the road, and more rough terrain capable, is more of a world market vehicle. Please share with others as I don't use X / TikTok / Snap / Discord, Facebook, no social media except You Tube for me.
A Mexican robotaxi would be trained on Mexican driver data - so if it needs to dodge kids playing in the road or there is a shootout and you need to get the hell out of dodge - it should be able to do those things. It will cut the cost of transport for most people to 50% - so it will be welcomed by the government.
What's the problem? If FSD doesn't work in undeveloped countries, then it won't be enabled in those countries. But FSD is perfectly capable of adjusting to regional differences anyway.
And please stop believing that any company exists 'to help people', it's incredibly naive.
The problem is that they will sell mostly in USA and the rest of the world will buy more affordable evs. That is the problem. And remember that they sold less in the USA latelly...
@farzad you are misunderstanding the value of a robotaxi. It doesn't just compete with Uber. It competes with essentially all transport systems. The primary cost of Uber is the drivers. If you remove the drivers the main remaining costs are the car itself, the electricity it uses, the maintenance, and the insurance. These could all reasonably be kept to below $1000/m for a high utilisation vehicle, perhaps less.
If a car is used 6000 hours per year, then this is a running cost of $2/h. If it averaged 40mph that would give it a running cost of $0.05 per mile. This is about 30x cheaper than Uber. this is 3x cheaper than rail travel in Europe.
Stick a double coach trailer on a Tesla Semi and fill it with 100 passengers for long distance travel and the cost comes down to about $0.01/mile as well.
Tesla can completely upend travel if it can solve autonomy.
I was shaking my head thinking the same thing. Let him continue to spread the bad takes so the stock stays cheap for the well researched.
You prob thought what you wrote is very deep and thought out and I appreciate the effort you’ve put into it. It’s a very utopian view and in fact will not succeed because of social logistics of relying on many many many automated vehicles for transport.
A wise man told me : "When in doubt about Tesla, check out the mission statement to get your answers". Tesla is not going to cancel a lower budget electric car for mass market because of their mission statement ;)
Here's a scenario.
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They started work on *Two* lines, the first dedicated to a vehicle which could be built with a lot of supervision, at a slow rate and still make a profit, because it was expensive...... Ideal to test a completely new and revolutionary process?
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Then they realised the "other" line, tasked to build the "cheap" vehicle, while benefiting from lessons learned on the "Slow, expensive" line, was going VERY well, and could produce far more vehicles, far sooner than expected.
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Next realisation? That the automated systems designed *for that vehicle* were maturing and likely to be ready this year.
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At that point, the Master Plan became the priority....
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A decision was made to mothball the expensive vehicle (have you guessed yet?) and convert that line to the cheap, high volume model (models!?)
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Then, Reuters heard a rumour and made an assumption.... Or 3.
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Go and take a *Very* close look at the covered vehicle everyone assumed to be the "compact".
(It was in fact an "expensive" vehicle, one that's been anticipated for a long time) 😉
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imo.
But personally owned vehicles that take up 50% of the space within the avg city, carry 1.2 people per trip, and sit idle 96% of the day is a HUGE part of the problem.
The flip side of that is, the mission is to transform transportation and energy to renewable/electric... and it is much more cost/unit effective to get robotaxi/transport-as-a-service out to masses, serving lot higher passenger miles w/ fewer cars and resources, than selling millions of individually-owned cars, even if cheaper. Less profit / units sold for Tesla, but accomplishes the mission faster and more efficiently.
That said, I agree w/ Farzad, should be both.. can't give up (completely) on the $25k car either, for other markets, hedge vs slow regulatory adoption/approval of robotaxis, etc...
Optimus is not really part of it, is it?
Yea, ok.😂
It makes sense to start with building a million robotaxis. The first mover here will capture most. It will bring huge revenue. It will also help fine-tune the new production system and avoid the Osborne effect before launching the 25k car.
Really excellent and relevant content Farzad. I love the way you are able to put things in a clear and understandable way. I wonder what how the robots will effect the current Chinese labor cost advantage? Robot cost + cost to operate amortized over ????? years of operation? Interesting to think about!
" I wonder what how the robots will effect the current Chinese labor cost advantage" It would completely wipe it out. Chinese labour cost is already wiped out because their mortgages are unpayable and their property values have halved 'since Evergrande'.
`As a TSLA shareholder, I think delaying/cancelling the 'Next Gen' car is a mistake.
The Robotaxi will not be approved by the regulators until 2026 at the earliest.
Murphy's law tells us there will be accidents that will cause the program to be delayed.
They will not have any meaningful volume before 2026 either. But 2030 robotaxi will not be approved in enough jurisdictions that can meet the potential production of a next gen car could be if the "pedal to the metall" is put on scaling it. Probably 2035 too.
I got out of the stock when reuters reported it was canceled (and then elon lied about it). It's abundantly clear they had no path to make an actual 25k car they wouldnt lose money on. Unboxed process doesn't remove enough of the cost and their cell production is still too expensive. The robotaxi stuff is just a smokescreen. They're not even close to level 5 autonomy and robotaxis won't be legal in any real way in markets where their teslas autonomy could matter for years and years.
This is one of the most profound Emperor's New Clothes I've seen. Robotaxi not a reality until FSD achieves zero interventions per YEAR. If that becomes real then level 5 becomes viable. The refusal of tesla fan RUclipsrs to address this fundamental reality makes it increasingly difficult to take them seriously.
Remember a human insured driver is allowed zero interventions per year. Unless you have some divine hand reaching down to take over whenever you can't handle it.
Elon is growing delusional. Tesla may have to get rid of him. I'm not even going to watch fsd videos anymore until it's clear they are not excluding failures and are hitting zero interventions per week.
2026 is a fantasy. Twitter can't even detect and handle bot and troll activity which means they have nothing resembling AI. Not even effective machine learning. Controlling bots is a far easier problem to solve than driving assuming your machine learning works.
Elon is jumping the shark in public on twitter abd cyber truck under delivers.
Not just that, I just bought a MS Plaid to do Uber Eats deliveries. Robotaxi will put me out of a job.
If Tesla can demonstrate the robotaxi is 5x safer than any human-driven car and is a radically cheaper form of transport than anything else then nothing can stand in its way. If a woman can haul her potatoes to market in Quito Peru in a robotaxi cheaper than any other option then who is going to get it the way of the robotaxi.
Since Musk unequivocally stated the Reuters article was false why is this even a discussion?
Because elon started spewing redpill conspiracies after he became friends with dumb Joe Rogan.
Elon didn't specify which parts were false, nor did he state that ALL of it was false. Other tweets of his recently have implied that parts of it may be true. So, as usual, we are left to speculate.
@@CL-gq3no That’s what frustrates me most as an investor. Tesla never communicates anything, which leads to speculation and the stock keeps plummeting.
Elon has no credibility sorry to say. He was even sanctioned by the SEC by blatantly lying in order to manipulate Tesla stock. 'Funding secured'. That's a man you can't trust.
@@empebeeis there any company on Earth that communicates more? Shares more detailed knowledge?
If there’s a problem, it’s that opportunities are opening up. BEV alone no longer leading solution / challenge.
Follow how Nvidia cornered chip market via graphics card.
Thanks Farzad, I hear what you're saying regarding why would Tesla give up profits on so many potential Compact sales around the world but I'm thinking they might simply be weighing the potential margins between those sales (and the headaches of building new factories, manufacturing) vs. the potentially much bigger margins and lower overhead of software services (robo-taxi fleet, FSD licensing, etc.)
then they need to scrap all their talk about transitioning the world to sustainable energy. Robotaxis aren't taking over in the coming decade and that's a lot of potential ICE car sales not squashed.
Then why build cars at all? They might as well sack the other 90% of the staff tomorrow, close down the factories and find a nice sunny park with a table and chairs and plug away at the lap top. Not going to happen, is it, because 80% of revenue comes directly from car sales and even more from related services. It's a car company.
All the largest companies in the World are software companies because software can be duplicated for free - without labour or raw materials.
Its about risk and timing, though. If you have a choice of something that in 5-6 years can definitely bring you 5-10x revenue or something that might bring 100x revenue at some indefinite point in the future (could be 10 years, 50 years, or even never if the problem ends up unsolvable), which is the best choice for a business to invest most of their capital in?. Some of us who believe in Tesla's earlier vision of affordable EVs for all think they should put most of their effort/cash into that. Yes, of course, work on the moonshots as a side project but they shouldnt be the main focus for a company that is not a startup spending VC money any more.
This was a minor FSD issue that FSD captured a speed limit sign of 25 miles per hour intended for a parallel small street. I had to press on the gas too long until the next 40 miles per hour sign showed up. I thought Google map already know the speed limit of this road.
Good analysis, thanks... agree w/ most points. Will be interesting to see which direction Tesla & Elon go... hope to still hedge bets and do both, but priorities...
one blocker for full robotaxi, is... automated charging. SOMEbody has to plug them in! Unless... they DO enable wireless charging in the robotaxi platform, and start deploying wireless charging sites widely in robotaxi-approved cities etc. (Otherwise, they have to get that creepy robot snake plug thing to work, more $$$..) That makes a lot of sense that they bought the wireless charge company, and have some provisions for it on CyberTruck...
not sure how they'd deploy/retrofit it to existing Model 3/Y that want to get used as fully automated robotaxis?
You ate missing a key point. Think in terms if what a 5x utilization rate of robotaxis would do prospective ICE buyers.
There won't be "ICE buyers" because the "ICE companies" won't be able to make them at anywhere near to a profit.
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Plus, the next generation with think "we" were nuts to spend thousands on a personal vehicle.
There are already a million vehicles in the US (S3XY) that could be immediately added to a robotaxi fleet if the owners want to participate. Seems that none of the people on this thread seem to understand what's going to happen to Tesla sales if you can have a Tesla that pays for itself and is still available for you any time you need it. Imagine the trajectory of any car companies that are giving cars away.
@@richardhamilton-gibbs6360 who will pay for the liabilities in the case of accident?
The owner will need to hold insurance on it. I suspect the model would be that the autonomous vehicles are privately owned and maintained. The robotaxi would be geared toward just that but still owned and insured privately.
Also think of the untouched markets where a robotaxi won't work and a 25k car would, like Africa, Asia,& SAmerica, where maps and roads are unreliable.
You would delay the M2 because you don't have the battery supply in place yet. They know that robotaxis will only go into a limited number of places at first so this is the best use of batteries while at the same time not osborning other vehicles.
My sentiments exactly. I believe they are also battery constraint for the Cybertruck, They would otherwise not offer the extended range version with an external pack that goes in the bed. That's definitely not Elon's style and quite frankly I'm surprised he approved it. They did this to save some face, and time for battery supply to catch up which it will eventually. Manufacturing the model 2 and robo taxie together at this time is simply not viable right now. They know it and are planning accordingly.
This. Also, 4680 ramp went poorly - possibly explaining why Drew left.
CATL is the only source of enough batteries and if they battery is not made in America then half the rebate is lost in the US.
And yet there are lots of news storied about a glut in battery supply with CATL and BYD announcing price cuts of up to 50%. The tax credit is really needed to sell cars int he $40k+ range. If you can sell a car for $25k with a CATL LFP battery in it straight up, then the credit isnt really needed.
I don't think it's really a supply problem. The 4680 specs/performance is to date a big disappointment.
Not confident about supervised self-driving. Test driving it I have encountered two issues. The first problem is when the route planning showed the car should drive forward through an intersection, the car would veer into left turn lane by half a car length before recognizing the mistake and shift back to the original lane. The second is left turn into a side street with center island 2/3 of the time turning angle was too shallow, with high tire curbing potential.
So, you're saying you think FSD will never get better than it is today?
@@craigman266 It is no longer in beta, but still drives at about learner driver skill level. Should not have left beta status. Maybe revenue recognition intruded into the decision.
This is very fixable. They just record a hundred videos of staff doing it correctly and it will be solved. Think to the future, my friend.
Tried the problem left turn again; today it steered toward the island head on. Had to disengage immediately to avoid crashing into the concrete island.
Great insight but was missing a key point, specifically with the Uber comparison. As the price of ride share falls sharply and available ride share cars jumps, there becomes much less reason to own a car. There is almost no wait for a robo taxi because there can be one on every corner, and the cost of transportation in general falls.
The people who would buy the $25k car are the ones who would likely choose not to own a car if it was no less convenient. I think that’s the bet the company is making and why they say robotaxi makes $25k car obselete.
The fundamental flaw in the reasoning is full autonomy even if it works perfectly just isn’t worth anywhere near what they think it’s worth to the average person. Having to drive your own car just isn’t a big deal for most people. A lot actually enjoy it most of the time. Does the math still make sense if it’s truly worth say $3k as a feature addition on a new car instead of $12k or even $7k? People tend to value being in full control of their environment most of the time. Ultimately once solved the feature will become a commodity that is just expected on all new cars with no up charge.
Lol no way is this true. Time is way more valuable.
You can't simply steal the software on the car. You need the data and training software and 10s of millions in compute to train it.
@@danharold3087Hi Dan, AI is not the exclusive domain of Tesla. While Tesla has currently a massive advantage with their billions of miles in their database AI will certainly be developed by more and more companies and applications. At some point Tesla will just be one of those players with not a significant advantage with the exception of being first. NVIDIA objective is to have AI the pervasive concept for all future development. Is being 1st a lock out? Same with robotics. Tesla Optimist is just one of the players in that space. Is Elon betting the farm on a product or vision that doesn't have a "most" around it or high barriers to entry? Has Elon gone mad? 😊
I had rather drive my manual Miata and have fun driving than let a risky automaton take over.
@@danharold3087 The chinese can steal anything... they do it all the time.
Farzad, I'm guessing you haven't yet read the open letter to shareholders from Robyn Denholm, Chairperson of the Board of Directors. She said the company is reorganizing & eliminating duplicate job positions (aka "leaning the mixture"). It's a good proactive move for future business (more nimble), not reactive to the recent past.
Tesla is currently hiring at least half of those people back in Robotaxi targeted roles. Many let go were related to the building of the Mexico plant.
Follow the guidance follow the leader believe everything cause we don't care, thinking constantly about one company is very healthy, thank you Elon for giving us purpose and a hobby.
Some have argued that one reason for the big gap between production and delivery in Q1 is due to redirection of transport ships around the Cape as Suez canal was was ”blocked” by huhti rebels. Is there any truth to this? If so how big of a gap could be explained by this and would that then be offset in Q2 as such transports reach destination in Europe?
That was part of it. Also China went on holiday for half a month, which is the biggest market. Also, Chinese consumers are going through a massive economic crisis. Also, Osborne effect for Model 3.
Would love to see both happen together. The M2 and the robo taxi
My Tesla prediction:
1) Model 2 is postponed for a regular car as well as for RoboTaxi, until:
2) RoboTaxi gets implemented based on Model Y
3) Heavy capital investments in the NVIDIA server center. Heavy push for FSD level 4 Dec 2024
5) RoboTaxi gets built with HW6 with improved sensors (all weather proof) and a faster car computer ( to handle more sensors)
Goal RoboTaxi will start testing at the end of 2025 and be released by the end of 2025
6) Giga Mexico and Giga India start delayed and dependent on the success of RoboTaxi
2) 4680 capital investments are set to a minimum of just enough to supply CyberTruck
7) Scaling batteries based on CATL bought knowledge.
What do you think?
I think it would be much easier to launch model 2. It has minimum risk factors and implied demand is strong.
Your points are reasonable - but the future is quite uncertain. I would say testing starts next month as they hare hiring thousands of robotaxi testers right now. Also, they cannot add sensors so easily because they will lack data - the driving data is of the current Tesla fleet is video only. Robotaxi will probably not be used in heavy snow areas where you cannot see the edge of the road.
Elon, get back to work!
Do you guys think existing vehicles in the fleet (HW3 & HW4) will be robotaxi capable? This will make a huge difference in the fleet size and valuation of the robotaxi model.
V12.3 is working on *HW3* emulation
@@rogerstarkey5390 in HW3 emulation on HW4
I've watched a lot of Chuck Cook's FSD videos and like Chuck I think there is an overwhelming argument for bumper (or outer front wheel arch) mounted cameras to improve visibility beyond that of a human driver. The B pillar camera is too far back - behind a human driver's sight line. Sandy Munro's recommendation of FLIR (Forward Looking Infra Red) to deal with heavy rain, snow and even fog also seems very worthy of serious consideration.
If someone asked me should they buy FSD for $12,000 now I would say to instead buy $12k worth of Tesla stock and by the time FSD is actually finished you'll more than double your money.
Regulatory approval for FSD is going to be painfully slow with an incredibly high bar of near perfect operation.
"Regulatory approval for FSD" It is not required in 41 states and the rest will have their hand forced when safety statistics are released.
I wonder how Tesla will approach this Robo Taxi model…
Will they release a “sled/shell” that includes everything needed and companies can put their own interiors inside?
Will they just create a finished product and sell to companies like Uber?
Will they just cut Uber out completely and get into the ride sharing business?
Did you see that Tesla is building a huge data center for the Robo Taxi in Austin?
That tells me Tesla will own the entire enchilada.
Tesla will run their fleet.
They will *eventually* move from BUILDING vehicles to *refurbishing* vehicles, with a skate (battery) that lasts multiple decades(5?) and a shell which can be gutted and updated to suit current trends.... All parts either made "new" or shredded and sent as raw material to the "input" side of what remains of their manufacturing plant.
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That's 30(?) years in the future.
(imo)
@@danharold3087 Tesla will build out their own model. They will licence to other companies, and the licence could cover everything from their manufacturing model, with Tesla supplying the boards and software. Tesla will not be publishing the hardware architecture: they'll design the boards, get Samsung to build them, and sell them to their licensees.
@@rogerstarkey5390 They'll have to shift sooner or later. One of the biggest selling points for these cars is few moving parts, which makes them more maintenance free, which is a market Tesla doesn't have that has been keeping ICE manufacturers afloat all this time. The "Sell sell sell!" business model will only go so far.
Almost certainly the last one. Tesla prefer vertical integration and direct to consumer models - it gives them control over the quality of the service. When you consider how awful most Uber trips are now, I think this is the only way.
You aren't just replacing Uber. You're also replacing ALL public transportation and trains. And as people adopt, then inner cities where parking is a pain will adopt. The other markets will be more difficult to penetrate but there will be adoption there too.
The challenge is going to be peak. Enough robotaxies for rush hour? Then a glut of robotaxies during non peak.
@@Dularr Battery storage?
That is just delusional. Mass transit in a place like Tokyo or New York is the only way.
Really, I take a train into central London it's 35 miles and takes 55 minutes. The average speed in London is about 10 miles an hour. How does perfect FSD help in the next 10 years?
The just take a train elitist comments are so ignorant. Public transit is great and these things all can work as options. Being able to get to a train if that's practical and then get one of these at the other end to get to places not serviced by a train is important. e.g. almost everywhere on earth is more than a mile from a train station...
Farzad I really appreciate your thinking process. Consider this: The supply of North American manufactured batteries has not been able to ramp fast enough to power everything that is planned. Robotaxi and the next gen car are on the same platform. Robotaxi is a limited market initially, and therefore will need fewer batteries. Also the profits will be enormous per car using the lease model. Next gen rollout will need a huge number of cars right away. I believe Gigamexico hasn’t started because there isn’t enough battery capacity yet. If we could use Chinese batteries without a penalty I think that would solve the problem.
The issue with robotaxi that no one talks about is demand is concentrated at specific times. Namely, the hours of going to and from work. During peak hours there is under capacity, or the rest of the day there is severe over capacity.
THE main reason I think the 2 seat "cab" is a no go.
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I think it's going to be a "compact multi seat" vehicle (4+) Which will be marketed with a "shared commute at reduced price" option.
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You have either friends being picked up and dropped off at different locations, or a cab running a route to one building, or one company.
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A 4 seat version, and a stretched 6-8 seater depending on area and preference.
The 8 seater then heads for the airport during the day, the 4 stays in the city.
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Or along those lines.
This is fundamental truth which I think severely limits robotaxi value.
I’m hoping for a little dip after this earnings call next week so I can buy more shares. I don’t have a huge bag or anything but I definitely see the upside
It’s already priced in. Too many know it’s going to be bad.
@@magic_fruit_bat5003 Gotcha
When I get my tesla I will definitely subscribe to FSD now that it's $99
I transferred my fsd from my Model Y to my 2024 Model X. I've tried 12.3.4 and really not impressed. People claiming they drove 1,000 miles with no intervention. I've had numerous issues in a 20 mile trip.
Stop signs are intolerable. starts slowing too early, stops too far back, creeps forward, takes too long to decide to go. Unusable if there is cross traffic at the intersection or behind you.
That is about $3 a day for unlimited RoboTaxi rides figuring you don't have to wait cost vs. charging & vehicle costs.
It's not FULL...its supervising.
@@yourlogicalnightmare1014 if its safe to proceed, just press the accelerator pedal slightly and it forces the car to continue forward. You don't even have to fully stop. Yes I know, then it's not fully driving itself, but you only have to press the pedal for a couple of seconds. Once it gets partly though the intersection, you can let it take over again.
@@craigman266
Yes, I've done that a few times. It's acceptable, just not preferable
What would the cost of model Y and 3 using the unboxed method be. I would think Model Y would be the test bed for the unboxing, you have all the parts plus less cost in tooling and casting?
A robotaxi will not be the same car as the 25k car. It would need to be more durable like the cyber truck. It could be the same size frame but components need to be like a city train in durability
Is it a massive risk? Or can you just bolt a steer by wire steering wheel on the robotaxi and go whatever way you want? I'm betting the latter.
Exactly!
Bro, Robo or 25k car is not an either or situation! Only Reuters is pushing this concept. Stop with all this extrapolation! Tesla is moving ahead effectively!
What insurance company would dare.
@@joemack8459 I have Tesla insurance. I'm pretty sure they would.
If they knew you weren't driving lol
Don't you guys get it? Robotaxi platform will be same as the 25k car.
I don't think people understand the word platform. It means it comes off the same production line. If you told them that the penny would drop.
@@michaelnurse9089 No it doesn't.
My main concern is regulatory approval - both for robotaxi and for a compact if it is only steer-by-wire which may not be allowed globally.
It seems to me that the first phase to TRUE AUTONOMOUS driving to sign off on would be for an inspection of all highways and state - "this is good for autonomous driving entirely" and then have Tesla understand this so that all driving outside of roads not ready 100%, would warn the 'driver' to say "hey, pay attention now" vs all the roads that are designated ready the 'driver' could read or do whatever they want knowing they are on a road that doesn't require any supervision.
Obviously, all major highways of all sorts could be signed off almost right away and then gradually over time, all roads.
I think that would make good sense.
I don't think you understand how it works. FSD can go on any type of road that it has data for, and with millions of Teslas on the road it has a lot of data.
@@michaelnurse9089 I do understand it actually. However, there is a point where they can have extreme confidence on certain roads vs others, because of markings and maintenance and various other factors. In some cases, curbs are messing them up today. People using FSD are really impressed with what is happening now but they still need to be alert to step in on occasion. That is where they are at. If I am using FSD today but I always have to pay attention, how great is it really?
What I am saying is that on highways, for instance, there is probably no need to step in at all already - today! There are probably other roads where they are so highly traveled and well marked and maintained that it is the same such that there is 100% confidence in those as well. If it was programmed into the Tesla with the user knowing that 98% of their journey they wouldn't even have to look up with full confidence, they can be doing work on a computer or watching videos or whatever - the user can relax and be busy doing other things. However, if the user is approaching an area where it is less than 100% confidence, the Tesla can issue a warning to the user to 'pay attention for the next 10 minutes'. That sort of thing. Does that makes sense? Imagine an hour trip where you, the user, didn't even have to pay any attention for 95% of the trip and you knew you didn't have to, but 5% the Telsa told you to pay attention.
As of right now, the user has to pay attention for the entire time just in case.
I am saying for the rollout of FSD, the users need to have a 'transition' stage where they can know not to pay attention with confidence, and other times where they should pay attention JUST IN CASE.
If FSD gets so good that eventually there will be ZERO need to pay attention ever, then great! But until that happens, have this other system I am describing and people are likely to consider using it! I would! However, if FSD is REALLY GOOD BUT PAY ATTENTION JUST IN CASE... what is so great about that?
Elon loves to gamble, he is going all in on AI and AD!
What you see as a gamble, Elon knows the outcome with certainty. PLEASE preface your evangelical statement with "In my opinion and understanding, it seems to me ....". This allows for your lack of comprehension and invites replies that may enlighten you.
He gambled on Twitter too , that went well 😂
I've not seen an announcement to this effect. Do please source.
@@davesheffield3620I think it's a great outcome for those who place freedom of speech at the top of the agenda 🤡🤡🤡
Ummm it's more than Musk, believe it or not, some shareholders are getting a bit tired of the attitude.
Robtaxi are possible for the next 10 years only in the States and Canada!! This only max 10-20 % of the world market!!!!!!!!!!!! So please next Genration FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!
What makes you think it’s canceled? They are the same car with slight variations
People want to take their cars, not an uber or a taxi. We only ever take taxis to and from the airport, when we're interstate or overseas and when we're drunk. That's not going to change when the robotaxi come along. You're not going to dig up your driveway and plant a garden there and your not going to convert your garage to a spare room and rent it out.
Next generation first. Model 2 first.
Another excellent insight video with your commentary...Thank you...!!!
Farzad thanks, I see your point but I totally disagree with you on Tesla Taking a "Massive risk", Knowing what Elon knows, which cannot be available to us, In my modest opinion Tesla would be guilty of a grave mistake if they don't jump at the unique opportunity offered by the most advanced FSD in the world, together with the Robotaxi, surely years ahead of anyone else that could finance that gargantuan project. the $130.000 Cyber truck ramp up and sales are going vertical, the new model 3 ramp up production problems have been solved and sales in EU and US are picking up nicely on the vastly improved and higher priced model 3 and Y. The Mega Pack high profits and vertical sales are equally very strong contributor to the profit bottom line and increasing by a factor of around plus 100% yearly. The EV competitors are not getting stronger but faltering. Keeping in mind that Q 1 sales numbers were hurt by a EU 2 weeks delivery delays due to rerouting around Africa of all ships loaded with Tesla coming from Shanghai. Adding the production problems in Fremont on the enhanced model 3 were the crucial cause for the poor show of Q1. I see a fantastic opportunity on Optimus production with AI and possibly enriched by FSD too. Considering that the new Tesla platform can produce both robotaxi as well as the cheaper 25.000 model and others too, I just fail to see where the "massive risk" is. I personally think that probably you let Gary Black and Loss Gerber influence the best part of your your great common sense you often display , and that is the main reason that I follow you, but this time you have disappointed me. Nothing personal, perhaps the sinking stock price has something to do with it, But I know that it will soar again like a magnificent phoenix.
The robotaxi and the Model 2 are the same car, are they not?
Wait for 8/8.
Meanwhile, check the "cars under sheets". The one on the right, look carefully at the shape and lines of the vehicle.
Then go to the Tesla site and navigate to Roadster.
.
*It's the same car*
.
Now consider that when you start a new process, in an existing factory, it might be a good idea to start with one you can throw bodies at, a large number of skilled workers to refine the process?
So it would be good to have a low volume vehicle, sold for a high price which lets you make a profit?
.
Now, imagine if while doing that, you start a similar line making a "cheap" car, destined to be made in a huge factory, yet to be built?
.
Now wonder what happens if THAT line works REALLY well, and start to show that it can ramp rapidly?
.
Maybe, you think
"This system is EASY to adapt from the "expensive " vehicle to the "Cheap" vehicle"
....
Next step, "Why not ramp THAT vehicle on TWO LINES?
AND match that vehicle to the autonomous system that's virtually ready....? And designed *For that vehicle* "
.
Suddenly it starts to make sense.
.
Did Elon say "We're cancelling the COMPACT...."?
.
What *I* saw/ heard was
"We're concentrating on the Taxi"
.
No it's built on the same manufacturing technique. But as he talks about, the possibilities if you have no driver and don't need to focus on the road are big. The interior could be very different.
@@christer1415
Much depends on your definition of "compact" and whether you believe a 2 seat vehicle fulfils the role of a "Taxi" (I'm in the home of the "Black Cab" where it's expected, or rather *obligatory* for a purpose built "Taxi" to be wheelchair accessible)
Same production line - not same car. Robotaxi will have taxi features like self closing doors, high wear replaceable interior.
Electric car leader, self driving innovator, AI creator, robotics, building space rockets, a sky full of orbiting internet access, getting paralyzed people to walk, most open social network... I'll just trust this guy.
But he betrayed the Democrats - so they are out for blood, and in their eyes he can do no right.
You must have your cameras in your pocket then.
@crazyloopster sorry, I don't understand what that is supposed to mean.
Hundreds of millions of people just love driving. People are moving out of the cities. Who wants to wait a half an hour for a car to come to them to take them down the street a few miles to a store. This understanding that nobody wants to really drive a car is just wrong. I would definitely take a robotaxi if I'm out of town in a city going from my hotel to a restaurant or airport, but when I'm at home I want to be able to just get in my car and go, not wait for robitax to get there and then wait for another robotaxi to get home.
We saw V12 a long time ago and if we don't know what version they're on now how do we know it's a risk, if we saw it we may say it's a no brainer? I love the way people put their views together with literally no information.
Even with just the latest available version the issues with it are known - a guy keeps a massive spreadsheet rating every aspect. There are a whole bunch of things that need work but each of those is a solvable in a month or two. Think of a marathon runner when he finally sees the 1 mile marker to the end - he knows for sure that he is going to make it and can expend the rest of his mental energy.
@@michaelnurse9089 Agreed but a lot of these issues could have been dealt with already and in validation. We just don't know what version they're running internally at Tesla. I personally think it's done internally and sure it won't be 100% perfect but it will be at least 5 times better than the average human. V12 was revealed last year and that is a very long time ago in AI terms. Compare it with how long it took XAI to get close to GPT4.
Hi Farzad
Model 2 and Robo will both go on the same platform. Want a 2? Just add a steer wheel and pedals. A Robo? OK. DONE
The manufacturing technique but not the same car. There are so much things different you can do in a robotaxi without a driver position. Let me be bold and say - we put babies in reverse car seats. Maybe that is they way for adults to - have all the seats facing backwards for safety (I don't think it will crash but I think there are other drunk drivers on the road for many years ahead...)?
The Cybertruck has technologies on board that will be refined for future vehicles. Steer-by-wire is going to be standard in the future, to ensure that crazies can't crash Tesla's Robotaxis. In fact, the Robotaxi may not have a steering wheel, but it's quite possible the owner will be able to remove the steering wheel module to allow their vehicles to be added to the Robotaxi fleet.
This :)
Perhaps, but you are stating this as fact when it's really just your assumptions and speculation.
@@christer1415well yes. But is that rocket science to put seats in the other way??
IF ! Tesla was to cancel the Model 2 ($25,000 car), it would only be canceled until it is no longer canceled. I think the phrases, smoke screen & Osborne effect may be just below the surface. Time to ready the dry powder ($$) for next Tuesday.
whats next tuesday?
That's an interesting theory. You may be on to something.
@@meggi8048 Next Tuesday, April 23rd at 5:30 pm eastern standard time, Tesla will do thier earnings call on the Q1 2024 financial results. There will be a live question & answer, and normally guidance for the company's plans for the near term future going foward. Now why the dry powder? Dry powder is slang for cash. There is normally a 10% dip in the Tesla share price during the aftermarket trading (4pm to 8pm) while the call is in progress. Buy the dip (not financial advice of course) :-)
Results may be better than expected because Tesla may release FSD reserves to profit.
Seriously, that is some of the best analysis of what the current changes around Tesla could lead to. Great video, Farzad.
As long as the software team keeps the updates coming I can see limited a robotaxi service happening soon. 12.4 seems to have solved 2 of the most annoying edge cases for my commute, the merging of two slow moving lanes where everyone takes turns and getting into a left turn lane fast enough so as to not annoy the guy behind me. 😀 Now it’s on to restoring the reasonably good navigating that 11.4.9 had. 🤨
We don’t know enough to have an informed view. If the Reuters report was true, I think a massive reevaluation of what Tesla is needs to happen. Elon said that report was false. So, we wait.
I think that's correct read It is a requirement for the company to communicate a change in strategy. They have not. Thus I presume the same strategy is in place.
Do you thank that Elon can be trusted without verification? I certainly no longer do. Verify and trust is more like it.
Reuters report was mostly true. The false part is that the Model 2 is not cancelled but delayed until a later date. Tesla needs no be re-evaluated as an AI/Software company - because car companies are mostly like airlines, a good way to lose money slowly until the next government bailout.
If Tesla's FSD somehow saved me time and hassle, the $99 monthly subscription would be a fair price. But for the current features, which are more like a fun gimmick, I'd only consider a price range of $10-20/month.
Your choice. Clearly huge numbers disagree. So much so that they feel cheated by the new low price. Spoiler alert, they haven't. But thats the clear and contrary view
@@markthomas7279 I hope many people sign up as I'm a shareholder. True value for me would be if I could get to work faster with FSD. Wouldn't it be great if they allowed FSD cars to drive way faster than human drivers?
I think discounting the FSD right will allow more users to not only benefit from it but also to test it and to also continue to provide the data for the dojo computer. Robo taxi may not happen overnight but as soon as infrastructure begins to allow for it and safely, IE maybe dedicated lanes for robo taxis instead or rail systems for public transportation, maybe?
Dojo, I forgot about that. He doesn’t mention that much anymore.
No infrastructure is needed. It can go wherever other cars go.
They'll do robotaxi plus existing cars in a Uber-like network in NA select cities to start off with, and the compact for Europe until regulatory approval is more likely.
Regulators are going to give FSD so much trouble. It’s going to take another 7 to 8 years just to test it and approve it so think maybe 2032.
The change over is when it saves lives.
Who wants their opposition telling how your refusal of FSD has cost your constituency 100s of lives each month.
Exactly. We didn’t even get Uber here in my city until 10 months ago.
Which it already has done. It a matter of statistics - what benefits the bulk of humans the most versus individual drivers and their passengers who are injured or die by an edge case issue.
Also take input from regulators seriously make all theirs concerns are dealt with such as decision making similar to both a written and actual driving test in which DMV required passing for humans. How to you test FSD? What is core through out states or countries in driving vehicles?
Why? Why wouldn’t cities that have already approved self driving cars also allow Teslas to do the same thing and wouldn’t that immediately be the proving ground for the rest of the country? I bet that how it plays out well before 2032, I think next year actually
@@Matis_747 “red states” are wary about using FSD. There are some cities’ airports that don’t even have Uber. You want FAD there. I’m with you on the logic but it doesn’t work like this. It’s regulated on a State by State basis.
Gen 2 is evolution.FSD is revolution
FSD will never happen without LIDAR.
@@Mark-jb9hx You're so uninformed. You're not even following what's going on. Organizations that have been using LIDAR in the past are giving up.
Look at Waymo vehicles. The Jaguar they're using costs them about $72,000. The extras they add to do geofenced dumb FSD cost them about $180,000, bringing the retail cost to over $250,000.
Jaguar is a low-volume EV manufacturer.
In the May 2019 Autonomy Day presentation, when Elon was asked whether Tesla would be using LIDAR, his reply was that LIDAR was a fool's errand.
Elon thinks you're a fool.
@@richardhamilton-gibbs6360Are waymo giving up?
@@richardhamilton-gibbs6360 I don't care what Elon thinks on this subject. He has barely monetized Tesla's driving software. On this matter he is just one of the CEO's of a company with self-driving software. A talking head. Except he talks a much bigger game which his company routinely cannot back up. Waymo doesn't constantly give crystal ball nonsense that they can't back up.
The world isn't ready for the revolution yet. 2030 will be the earliest.
Similar to when Apple began to put more focus on higher-margin services revenues when the ecosystem was ready, Tesla is doing just that. Look at Uber, Lyft, etc. revenues and paradigm shift with FSD disruption. Please recalculate profits of the two options in your next clip. Looking forward to see it.
Been following Tesla for years an investor. I don’t understand why they don’t just continue with the compact car and continue fsd as they have been doing and create the robotaxi with the compact in tandem. Seems like risk assessment would easily say go this direction. Sell a ton of cars and work on fsd at the same time. Like they have been doing…
Don't be so sure that they haven't.
.
I have a suspicion that Reuters may look very silly in August.
Because FSD is an empty marketing, they cut costs a lot and lost the race. check other systems, better systems, better sensors, better soft.
Model 2 is half the risk. Robotaxi is 10x the profits. 10x trumps 2x.
My advice to Elon is give people what they want. This may or may not include what the government wants. What do people want? Lower first cost. Lower cost of operation. Comfort in operation including temperature flexibility winter summer, no range anxiety ( more range and countrywide recharge network or both), larger interiors and attainable luxury pricing. Most people don’t care if a car or suv or truck is ice or ev or hybrid. They don’t want to think about it. They just want reliable transportation at lowest cost and the impact on the environment is something they don’t want to think about. Tesla has already sold the customer who gives a rats behind about the environment. Most people don’t think they will ever need self driving but I personally would love it. Robotaxi as a replacement for Uber would be great. I have liked the Uber drivers I have met have been mostly nice but it is Russian roulette with natural intelligence. I would prefer a robot that is under centralized control and artificially intelligent.
I can agree at this moment in time but it’s also good to remember that Henry Ford quote “If I asked people what they wanted, they would have just said faster horses”
That's why you're not working at Tesla. 😁
@@richardhamilton-gibbs6360 if you ignore what your customer wants you do so at your peril as a business. I don’t work anywhere after a long career.
@@stevecha3612 the choice now is not between a faster horse or a model t. I am old enough to have known people who bought model t’s. They loved them for all they did and hated them for what they didn’t. Electric start and better tires to start. Not to mention safety glass. As a product company you have a choice give your customer what they want or watch them go somewhere else. I love Tesla for what they have done and look forward to what they will do. Now is not the time to give them any color they want as long as it is black.🤔
Your first mistake is thinking your opinion matters.
Musk knows more.
Still a huge difference between a useful FSD driver assistance package and one that is truly reliable for Robotaxi without a steering wheel. For Robotaxi, reliability of "hardly ever requires intervention" is not good enough. If it only kills you once every 4 years is that good enough??
I was thinking on the same angle, but there is a little more complexity. That is car owners can and will also do robotaxis. They will also be generating income which means the money spent on the car is an investment. So the prices may be attractive at the current prices.
Because a Robotaxi will make like $80000 a year there is no way Tesla is going to just let people use FSD for that. Maybe they will allow you to buy a different software for - say $200 000 and use that - but the base case is that all Robotaxis are build and owned and operated by Tesla.
If they go all in on robotaxi and no compact, won't each robotaxi basically replace 5 cars since it's not sitting in a parking most of the day. Also, by the time the first market's you listed are filled (Pheonix, San Fran... etc) won't new markets open up so demand stays ahead of supply? If we assume constraint, they should be able to make more vehicles overall if they are not making multiple variants.
If cars sitting in a parking lot is the main problem, why are car-sharing companies like Turo, Zipcar, or Cambio dominating the landscape? For a lot of the problems that Robotaxi would supposedly solve there are already solutions for.
@@belgiumhr3524 Right. Turo, Zipcar and Cambio validate the argument that the problem (I've never heard anyone call it the main problem) exists and clearly robotaxi would be a far better solution.
This technology is still 10 years away from being acceptable. Niche market only at present.
I think you're laughably wrong. So I'm going to ask you to quote your sources, and please, no evangelists! Scientific research articles only.
You underestimate the younger generation using this tech. Nobody wants to finance a $30k car, get smacked by depreciation, maintainence, insurance, etc, just to do it all over again. Old people always lag behind, smartphones, computers, heck even email! Yes, old people won't accept it. They are always slow when it comes to tech.
Sold at $364 buying back in at $137
You go trader you go big!
lol, good for you.
Sure you did/are. How many shares? What was your tax burden for the sale? Trolls be trolling.
Were you not tempted at $108?
Bought the bulls fomo hype at $270. Either I'll never see that money again, or I'll have $30 mill.
I think I would have been better off listening to Gordon Johnson & Jim Cramer 🤦♂️
Useful discussion of where we are in Tesla's development.
I appreciate you giving a two sided perspective on this possible inflection point for the company. Far too many Tesla channels only pump up the positive and don’t discuss the possible negative with any real nuance, more often totally dismissing it
One thing i don't think alot of people has internalized yet is that the core issue of FSD has already been solved, that is every main aspect of what is considered as driving has already been automated by FSD, what's missing is mostly the fixing of edge cases which is literally only a matter of time as there's a limited number of those. This is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people because once a certain optimization threshold is crossed, FSD is going to turn into digital gold so fast that fomo isn't even going to be a thing, there's just going to be a lot of regret.
People are so bad at taking current data and extrapolating it forward.
A rude awakening has already happened to my account balance, I’m down 800k in 3 years for betting on tsla,
Until you’ve bet on this and lost serious money, you’re just lying to everyone
The only way you can internalize that is to watch a whole bunch of FSD V12 videos - it takes hours to understand that properly.
In your definition FSD has been solved for 10 years, it's the edge cases that are going make this an economically valuable technology or just a cool toy. To make a robotaxi 99.9999999% of these edge cases needs to be solved. I think you need to realize AI is not in the core issues (to solve that you don't need AI) but in the edge cases.
@@belgiumhr3524 Your response is straight up outdated. That used to be the case quite some time ago but the latest versions of FSD no longer work like that. Additionally, you don't need to make it perfect, you just need to prove it's statistically safer than human driving, which really isn't that difficult.
I think they need the 25,000 dollar vehicle. The more data the more perfected the FSD will become.
Why do you think this? Tesla are getting a huge amount of data from giving everybody a free month of FSD. Elon has told us that Tesla is no longer compute-constrained, and their AI systems are growing from 2 exaflops to 100 exaflops by October 2024. They can now use huge amounts of data and completely rebuild their model in a couple of days.
Maravilha muito esclarecedor conhecimento e vida nos liberta
Not betting. Small car will be produced RT is approved across the world - years. The vehicle architecture designed for producing both on the same assembly line, with steer by wire a notable reason
Obviously people who have devoted their lives to the company are excited about the likelihood of success since they are leaving in droves. The rest of us are still here in Jonestown, Guyana November 1978.
😂
$69 per share would be so poetic.
@@Magpie314 I'm paying $100 and to me it's worth every penny.
There was another situation when supervised self-driving wanted to make a right turn when there were some road constructions blocking the right turn lane. The car can still make a right turn at the intersection. It seemed the self-driving wanted to do the right turn since it slowed down by quite a lot, but abandoned the turn at the last moment and wanted to go straight instead. It was a very sudden decision so I just completed the right turn for it.
There may need to be a slight "behavioural change" at temporary road works, etc.
Maybe a new sign?
Not difficult (and probably better for human drivers as well!?)
Within a year construction navigation will no longer be an issue.
@@michaelnurse9089 How? No two construction sites look the same.
I totally agree with Farzad and others in the Tesla community saying no compact means no 20 million units annual sale, ever, not just by 2030.
Due to legal issues, staking the Tesla future on robotaxi services and vehicles is not a gamble I would agree with.
As of today, we do not truly know what the future of the compact is. I suspect before the big robotaxi press event in August that we will get more info on what is going on with the compact.
I still have faith in the Tesla team and look forward to seeing what innovations they will bring to the table. No one saw the Tesla we see today back in 2018. What will see in 2030 will have things we no nothing about now asvwell as things paying off that being worked on today.
Prioritizing the Cyber Truck over the development and release of the compact was sheer stupidity. There's no genius at work there. Putting all of that effort and money into a vehicle that will realistically only sell in any numbers in North America to the well heeled as opposed to developing a car that will have global appeal and financial accessibility was bonkers.
What were they thinking? And now they're saying that they're not releasing it at all. What?
Legal issues are only part of the concerns that one should have pertaining to the robo taxi. I honestly don't think that anyone has stood back and considered just how pervasive car culture is, in the developed world. With few exceptions, we all want the convenience of our own vehicle at our finger tips. For many, we want a vehicle that's "fun" in someway, be it sporty or whatever. For many, we want something that we can park in the driveway that reflects the personality that we want the world to see, or even as a display of our wealth.
We build dedicated rooms in our houses called garages, for our cars and we pave the area leading to said room. We drop the kids off at school in the car, we go to work in the car, we go on holidays in the car. We go out on Sunday drives in the car just for the sake of driving the car! We are, by and large, car.
Robo Taxi is not going to change that. Sorry, it just isn't. It might revolutionize how we get to the air port or how we get home drunk, but when we need to go to the grocery shop and pick up milk and bread, we're taking our car, not the robo taxi.
Personally, I think that since the model Y, Tesla have lost the plot. They need to pull a rabbit out of the hat, and that rabbit isn't Robo Taxi. I will guarantee it.
fsd is a pure speculation bet ... optimus is more probable .... energy is king
Why is Robotaxi over Model “2” probably the best and most intelligent strategy ?
The two(2) most important, impactful, and financially beneficial commercial products
that Tesla will develop are (in chronological order) :
1) Full Self Driving (FSD)
2) Optimus Robot = requires FSD to be solved
In order to finalize and solve FSD quickly, it is necessary as many vehicles as possible
on the road and utilizing FSD as soon as possible.
Purchasers of a NEW Model “2” with an Estimated Purchase Price of ~ $ 25,000
most likely not be able to afford to pay ~ $12,000 or 50% MORE than the vehicle for FSD.
As a result, the majority of the Model “2”s would be on the road with NO FSD,
and would not be helping the mission to solve FSD.
On the other, Tesla could mandate that ALL Robotaxis be equipped with and utilize FSD.
And this strategy will be especially easy if, in fact, Tesla IS the actual Robotaxi owner / operator.
Thus, leading with Robotaxi will lead to the quicker solution on FSD for Tesla vehicles;
but more importantly, quicker FSD Licensing to other Automotive Companies.
FSD Licensing estimated +80% Profit Margin and is well above Vehicle Profit ~ 15%
And, with NO Capital Infrastructure Investment and NO Manufacturing Costs,
Tesla’s Overall Profitability soars.
And then . . . . . . with FSD . . . . . there is Optimus . . . . . .
The difference between the LC car and the robotaxi's is a steering wheel and pedals. To make one is to make both. Question is which one has the highest margins?
No. They might make the taxis stainless steel like Cybertruck, with high mileage batteries, self closing doors and high wear interiors. Same platform means same production line like the S/X or 3/Y - cars can be fairly different.
The new Boston dynamic bot is not competition. Only r&d and no NN AI, not intended for mass production according to their own documentation.
"When they solve autonomy." Yeah, right...just after Cold Fusion and Hyperloop. 😏
Robotaxis… Elon fanboys lapping it up again 😂😂😂
The difference between a robot taxi and a Model 2 is a steering wheel and pedals. They could update the production line at any time.
Operating a fleet of robotaxies will create a steady revenue stream -- better than the one-time margin profit from selling a car. Also this will leverage the value of FSD and begin gradually introducing the idea of robotaxies to folks who don't want to buy a car or hassle with charging it. From this perspective the idea makes excellent sense.
We downloaded the fsd for a month to try it out. Hated it. I drive better then this program. The 99 bucks offered now won't persuade me to buy.
Nobody suggests it drives better than humans, that’s why it has to be supervised. Your expectations have been misinformed. It’s supposed to share the load whilst you keep paying attention. You can tell it where to go and you don’t have to think about it just get ready to intervene if it not 100%. It’s improving over time and thought to be in the final phase. Most commenters reporting minimal interventions.
FSD competes with human driving. Human driving costs $0.00 per month; FSD $100 per month and in both cases the human is required to drive/supervise.
What? How much time does it cost humans to drive. The stress levels driving. Consequences of car crashes.
Umm sorry but driving for “free” is far from reality. It costs a lot on the background to drive whether people want to believe it or not. There is also a lot on the line to drive if there is an accident.
The long term plan of FSD and Robotaxi is to replace people having to purchase and maintain cars, so from that point of view human driving is far from free when you have to pay for and maintain a car.
So lives are only measured in dollars.
Everyone is overlooking the fact that Quarter 1 of 2023 was the first significant price cuts. It’s when I bought our 3rd Tesla.
bad take ….we can extrapolate your argument to the cost of hanging clothes on a line (zero) vs. purchasing a washing machine… there is very clearly a cost to driving. You could improve your work efficiency while you’re car is self driving like for example taking a call from the office or answering an email. Your car could reduce your risk if your tired are unable to concentrate.
I'm skeptical of the idea that more data is needed, as opposed to a better-designed neural network.
I guess its not only about the how many cars are being sold, i do expect the robotaxi margin to be significantly higher then their normal cars especially if they are the first mover
Focusing on FSD robotaxi first and then selling a somewhat higher cost low cost but FSD compact car 2nd after FSD is proven and accepted, helps to enter the low cost car market at a higher price point and higher margin and destroy that market. That is because buyers will be able to rideshare their vehicles to help them make payments.
The board wanting to re approve Musk’s 50B compensation package is the most bullish sign ever. 🚀🚀🚀
FSD is fantastic right now if you have hw3. HW4 not so much, I think they shit the bed trying to get cheap with vision only HW4. Speaking from experience, I have both.
I almost threw in the towel for “Tesla News / Stocks” channels and then I found this channel , Thank you for NOT being a Fan fair and Actually having Some Mentality and Logic to Tesla Info , you sir are NOT going in My “For the LoLs” playlist 👍🏻
He's a mega fan. I've followed him for years. Don't go to him for bias free takes.
@@JonathanRootD at least he has Critical thinking views , the other Tesla Pumpers uff Theyre Scary oh how Much Tesla Shoes they Lick 😂
Your demand and TAM numbers are reasonable. And those imply that yes you should rethink Tesla's future. I would also question whether current FSD performance should raise your confidence that real autonomy is just around the corner.
I think Farzad's demand number of 1 million taxis is a poor one. Adoption will 10x because it is half the price of an Uber with the convenience and privacy of an own vehicle. People will sell their vehicles and use Robo Taxis.
I believe Tesla can push forward in all areas despite these short term setbacks. The company is able to scale up their privately owned EV sector, develop both a low cost EV / robotaxi on the same platform and continue to perfect their FSD and AI initiatives. The utilization of Optimus throughout all areas of Tesla Operations will be a force multiplier. Long TSLA ❤
On the issue of car volume and Robotaxi.Quite probably robotaxi replaces local bus services. That would require more/ not less cars. There are assumption in which robotaxi demands more vehicles.
Farzad what is going why are there layoff in Texas Giga Factory? Is the Cyber truck doing that bad? I did not think was so....
Robotaxis can be profitable in urban areas and the burbs, but not in less densely populated areas. Musk has said that once you get the system set up, the cost comes close to the cost of materials - I can see pushing robotaxis out first if the tech is ready as they can likely deploy all of them they can make and use it to learn, but once they ramp, there is no reason not to develop the lower cost car - as you say, developing countries may not have the needed infrastructure to make robotaxis work.
10:32 You are comparing building and selling a Model 2 with running a transport service, they’re not the same things, so it doesn’t make sense to spend time worrying about reduced units of build. If they can transition to a service, yet stay at 2 million units, they’d still make a lot more revenue.
I completely agree the Environmental mission of Tesla suffers in the near to mid-term if the 25k car is axed or delayed. I thought they were going BTW for the electrification - for decarbonization. Even if it is boring. This is why key leadership left - they disagreed. My supposition.
I'm afraid you're not wrong.
It's all speculation, think about car sharing, how much easier that will be with a self driving car. I buy a car with two others and if you need the car, you don't have to get it, it gets to you. I mean: this whole self driving has so many uses, it will open complete new possibilities.