Tesla's Most Important Moment Has Arrived.
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- Опубликовано: 17 апр 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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Mistakes are not a crime, they are learning opportunities. If you never make mistakes you are not trying hard enough!
Mistakes are not a crime, but mistakes can mean bankruptcy.
Some mistakes are a learning opportunity for the species. Darwin Awards and all that.
@@banon7853
It's hard to imagine Tesla going bankrupt, in fact, near impossibility (unless everyone gets the commie mindset virus and just refuses to buy, to piss off the pro American CEO).
why are so many focusing on the x overhang but no one mentions the spacex overhang which is an extremely positive one?
Because of Gwen Shotwell. Tesla could use a Gwen.
@@fractalelf7760is Gwen pushing Starship or Starlink?
Would say Mary Barra type CEO push robotaxi / bots / AGI - or cybertruck/ roadster II / model S?
Musk still pull strings.
@@iandavies4853 You’re missing the point, it helps offload management…
Because "X" is a 40,000,000,000 dollar far right-wing Musk-speak social media platform that he thinks he'll pay for with a $56,000,000,000 Tesla payout. ( not if my vote counts)
And X is being used to market Tesla products. It helps heaps with word of mouth which is exactly what Tesla needs now
Farzad nails it again. Tesla do things differently, and they always have. A company of this size and scale, doing the extraordinary, for years is the truth. The next couple of years might be difficult for Wall Street to understand but Tesla will be hugely successful and be 5x by 2030.
That’s if they succeed. They’ve done it before but doesn’t mean they’ll get it right again.
Cars alone intended to be 10x by 2030 or so. (~20 million units pA, but doing work of 50-100 million)
Energy is taking off.
Bots & AGI services will be making decent money by then. That’s wild card.
No chance
@@TheSkatereel done it before - including SpaceX. Both astonishing success.
First (only) successful startup car manufacturing in US in century, blew socks off everyone.
Those two have cornered the market for top & brave engineering talent.
Don’t intend to go rusty.
@@TheSkatereel They've mostly been lucky to be bailed out and get handouts that kept them afloat. It's definitely not a long term success strategy if it depends on that.
Um when someone says you are in a cult they probably are seeing that you have no criticism with the company in this case, when we all know there is always room for criticism. There is no growth without criticism.
99% of the news articles about Tesla are negative. It's amazing they do as well as they do.
Free publicity though.
The degree of negativity reflects the mortal threat Tesla poses to fossil fuel and auto industries.
99% of the news articles are mainly about elon not tesla, they just hate him for personal reasons lol
They have an underdog mentality, even though they're the most valuable auto company in the world, while not actually being an auto company, but instead a tech/AI company that also makes autos :-)
10 billion dollar investment in fsd finally 99% going to be successful and stock craters… its like they just struck gold… and the investors are running away…saying its going to be to hard to mine it… crazy
I agree. No competition. Profitable. Selling services to other auto manufacturers. Data dominance. I know a number of people that cashed in today in fear of the next move to $101. Even if this is a great opportunity it sure doesn’t feel like it. Really need the AI moment for Tesla.
Unbeknown to the public the 10 billion dollars in compute will be used for crypto mining /s
Beautiful analogy but it will in fact be hard to mine. I think they can do it though.
Only question in my mind is how many years of money printing before its commoditized.
Don't forget that Tesla is en engineering company run by some of the world's most brilliant engineers. It is also the world's most advances manufacturing company with its Giga Factories that have never been seen before allowing it to dominate the EV market. Add to that that it has morphed into the world's largest energy company and mos advance AI company.
So whatever is cooking behind closed doors, it will again totally change the transportation industry leaving behind the legacy automakers and evryone else wondering what happened.
It is too bad that some of the top engineers have left the company but behind each person that left are another 10 brilliant end innovative engineers. It is interesting to note that Franz Von Holshauzen, Elon's key designer is still there.
So whatever is going to happen over the next year; hold your breath and come along for the ride. P.S. don't worry about your Tesla shares, after some ups and downs they will just do fine and leave it to Elon to create some incredible shareholder value.
I've drank the cool-aid in 2016. The week to week analysis is Pedestrian, we will all be shocked later than sooner. Hold long❤
Bots and Robotaxies! It’s all good, but most of us just want the Model Y refresh. :-)
I want a one size down model Y
Unboxed is by far the most urgent and important factor in all this. It enables unbelievable flexibility on any manufactured product. Product production, release and announcements become way less relevant.
Hey Farzad, first autonomous rides will likely be in Vegas Boring tunnels with dedicated vehicles, and will spread to surface streets... S3XY are not safe to use in UNSUPERVISED autonomous mode and that is why we haven't seen autonomy in tunnels yet...
Elon said he’s balls to the wall on FSD and Rob Taxi that doesn’t sound like a guy who is not committed to me
then figure the shit out, FSD is not safe and nowhere near robotaxi safe, like 5 percent there close...
All that is fine, but being a public company means that people get to vote using the share price. Short term, the stock market is a voting machine. Long-term, it is a value machine.
Lol you’re easy to convince I see. Talk is cheap
You can currently buy a well equipped Tesla model Y below the average listing price of 47k for all cars and for the average commute you will save an additional 200-300 per month in gas. Do the math I did and bought my first American made car since 1987. This is why bought a Tesla model Y. You simply can’t argue with the numbers.
I think that robotaxi won’t be sold, they will work for Tesla!
They will skip the sales, service and customer service. Transportation will be the business under the cover of a robot
duh. why would you own a fully self driving car. you will pay a monthly fee for a service where one shows up. the top level wants you to own nothing and like it.
Nobody yet mentions micro transport / delivery.
That’ll be half the FSD.
Optimus might ride along shotgun, last metre delivery.
Or Optimus doggy.
@@westendthug1408 That is good or bad depending on how they price the service.
@@iandavies4853 Totally! Optimus plus a self driving vehicle is mind blowing. So many things are now possible.
@@westendthug1408 That may be the ideal top lifestyle of the future. Own nothing, just efficiently pay for what you need when you need it. FSD trabsport, AirBNB accomodation, Optimus homemaking/cooking. Live like a king did 200 yrs ago.
Like the Bob Marly song, "don"t worry, be happy, everything will be alright".
I don't know that one. I'm ashamed of myself. 😢 🇯🇲
Bob Marley did not sing Don't Worry Be Happy. It was Bobby McFerrin.
@@michaelnurse9089 Phew!
Teslabot and selfdriving may be what either makes or breaks tesla.
If it failed they are still fantastic. The company does not hinge on FSD or even Optimus.
You just described a possibility matrix that contains every possible outcome.
neither failing will break tesla, still best selling car in the world
People seem to forget the mega packs which is growing fast
@@Uberkilltoecheese The company will still survive, but the entire reason I am invested in TSLA (For FSD) will fail and tank the price hard.
Btw - will you show us what you can do with that wall decor behind you?
The Mandolorian said it best..... "This is the Way"
The only reason I can see him canceling the compact car is that robo taxi is so good that they won't be able to make enough of them for the robotaxi fleet and making one robo taxi car is kind of like making three cars for the amount of time it'll be on the road. Just thinking
As always, one of your most reasonable guests! Fantastic point about osborn effect, Robotaxi won’t Osborn. Use Robotaxi to ramp next gen lines. Then launch ‘model 2’ available in two weeks. Would be brilliant. Not convinced Tesla is doing this, but can hope.
A large cap tech company now literally acting like a pre-seed startup - Tesla is the public equity markets version of a startup!
That's why I love Elon, he is not afraid of innovation and change - money isn't all that matters to him, it's the end result.
Same fudge that made him by Twitter then withheld his pay stating that he was concentrating on Twitter to much. Stunning
I'm enjoying this balanced. I wish it would capitalize balanced conversation the Highlander.😊❤
Anybody asking robotaxi vs compact car question doesn't get it.
Next gen vehicle is surely drive-by-wire, so the only difference between robotaxi and compact car is just a set of controller, like $200.
Right, and the steering wheel can be electronically and remotely turned off and on by the service provider.
Everytime Tesla break the convention wisdom, they invent new wisdom and people didn't believe it.
Yes that why
Spot on. Keep it up.
The difference between Tim Cool and Steve Jobs. Steve wouldn’t have released the Apple Vision Pro in its current form.
I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE OPENING STATEMENT !!!!!
I do.
Ubt that you'll remember, but you and I were talking about the $25000 car on Herbert's live. X pi'm sticking with the $25000 car. Because that's all I can afford the Highlander.❤😊
Exciting time. 1) Robotaxi must have higher revenues per unit than $25k car, 2) punting $25k car a bit allows more time to ride the cost curve (eg, battery costs out of China) and avoid cannibalising existing models / manufacturing investment, 3) Elon wouldn’t do this absent high confidence in FSD sooner than we dared think (makes sense given new AI approach vs heuristics, increasing training data pace, and rapid acquisition of compute/ no longer compute constrained - all new factors now that weren’t there even 12 mos ago).
Man tesla stockholders are getting beat up right now. Wish I could buy more.
Dude don't put money in this falling knife.
Wait until it falls to zero then buy, buy, buy
@@992GTS-DC yeah that's realistic. Where do you guys come up with this bull$hit.
@@NaughtyGoatFarm trying to save you money, reply to this message next week after the earnings call…..let’s see where the stock price is compared to now
@@992GTS-DCI think it will fall further. No doubt. But saying it will fall to zero is ridiculous.
A very philosophical tone to this conversation. The nature of investing is a personal test of self confidence in your own reasoning. One must be ok with their decisions even if others say they are bad (sometimes said repeatedly). Because after all, sometimes you can not both be right. Value over time is created by these divergences in belief.
100% Hans, ramp during robotaxi testing. Once ramped switch to the more affordable tesla. This is an advantage of the unboxed method IMO. This will allow tesla to work out kinks then open the flood gates for the consumer offering.
Maybe i missed it with your conversation, but i think a lot like they're doing with the supercharger network, Tesla could open up their fsd to other manufacturers. Other OEM could fit their vehicles with the appropriate cameras and then they don't have to reinvent the wheel with the software solution.
Great chat, both meta and more concrete.
Meandering dialogue Sir's. But I learned quite a lot. Thank you.
How much is the robot tech capable of linking to the autonomous car.? Are people going to link to the robòt? I can see it work great in truck driving logistics and delivery services. Less loss of life in driving accidents. Might be a problem with the overpopulation due to Ai .
Tesla's automobile business is a means to ends other than the car business. These ends are where it's at for Teala's future.
People have a tendency to look at a stock price as nothing more than a number on a sheet of paper or on a computer screen. They forget about the thousands of employees working for them every day.
I expect to see launch of vehicle with steering and pedals called Robotaxi with Driver Assist.” Full Robotaxi depends on extensive safety demo for regulations and public confidence. Thanks.
good opening! Epic from the first few minutes. Totally agree... I was reading a commenter a few days ago expressing "concern" lol. A couple of days later I'm still thinking and I wanted to go find that comment and tell the person "they should make up their mind and then stick with their decision." If they're concerned enough to comment, then their level of risk taking is too low... They need to decide what they want to do asap - either stick with it or give up. Why is it so hard to believe? If you don't believe now then when?
❤ Farzad but not a beliver in the robotaxi provider to fleets regarding the interior customizations. The interior attachments must be planned for power, cooling, crash etc. I can get behind the theory that the robotaxi will be a 2 seater or they will make 2 versions 2 & 4-6 seats
The big unanswered question about Robotaxi for me is who assumes the costs of lawsuits in both potential payouts and lawyers fees? I would only buy a fleet of Robotaxis unless there was someone with much deeper pockets than mine. Thanks.
Drew Baglino and Rohan Patel start new robotaxi fleet company and join the billionaires club.
Yep that why
If I am a Uber/Lyft/rideshare driver, how do I include myself in this type of autonomous economy? Protest or participate? Either way model2 is moot because used 3 & Y already exists for them. Am I missing something?
Thanks!
Close ...FSD as an APP, and Robotaxi as a service(?) FSD can be on your cellphone, and connect with any FSD-compatible EV platform. I get in the Ford/Chevy/VW, and my phone connects with the car, with my FSD driving profile. Ergo Robotaxi is a transportation service, but FSD is a full suite of mobile technology available to other cars.
Who determines when FSD is a success? When it is L4 or L5?
I completely DISAGREE with the opening statement..!
Yes, there is criticism but..
Tesla is not a car company. It IS an "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" company..!
It’s an AI/robotics/energy company. Elon said so.
Why do you care about what to label it? People only label Krispy Kreme a donut company because it describes where most of its business comes from. It’s irrelevant if Krispy Kreme is working on humanoid robots or automated kiosks. The label describes the core of Krispy Kreme’s monetization. Donuts.
What does this label you want to put on Tesla describe?
Where is 90% of their profit coming from? Correct, car sales! It's a f*cking car company dude.
I bought tesla because of the electric automotive base and robotics driving technology and the technology lines in the development stage.
I got 9 minutes into this video and I disagree. I am bullish long term on robo taxis and bots but I read the mission statement. A $25,000 car was the product I was excited about in the near term. I invested in a company who set out on produce 20 million cars annually AND work towards robo taxis and bots and all the exciting AI projects. I would expect that Elon would give a more clear response then “Reuters is lying, again”. I believe Dan Ives is correct. As CEO, Elon should give clarity and guidance in the up upcoming earnings call.
I think the best strategy is to ramp production of model 2 and integrate robo taxi autonomy into that fleet. Tesla should then setup their own software (akin to Uber) which allows people to use their cars to for taxi service. Once Tesla has created an unsatiable demand for their cars + revenue + from FSD/taxi software + revenue split (same model as Uber) for taxi network. Then let then start integrating the “steering wheel-less” fleet as for commercial customers with specific use cases.
Great Channel Farzad IMO I hope Tesla can start delivering earnings growth instead of just talking about the company all the time.
I 100% agree that Tesla is avoiding the Osborne effect by claiming model 2 is delayed. Once that car is announced, model 3 and possibly model Y sales halt until the public can evaluate which model to buy. Clearly, it will canibalize model 3 sales.
47:50 More cowbell!!
Risk taking is part of making aggressive and fast changes to keep up with fast changing technologies and environment.
Farzad, The 1st Trimester is the Most Critical for the child development… 🙏🏽 Fantastic analogy!
You can try impossible things in software because there’s no material cost.
You only get one chance in Hardware.
Are we going to get any information about the status of the unboxed manufacturing in Texas at the 8/8 unveiling?
It's after all the production of the RoboTaxi, and of the Compact too, which everyone seems to ignore since the Reuters article.
But I don't expect Tesla to mentiin the other Vehicles at that time. So, the Wall St will continue to be confused!
Everybody keeps saying these industries need to show up on the P&L. I don’t believe this, if Tesla would give a clear outline of a clear business plan people could extract the potential. What is the current rate of FSD. What are the critical issues still remaining to solve? Once this is achieved, how do we monetize the program. Once he become clear in these the stock will go crazy. Then to keep the stock up, the P&L will be required to support the growth.
Lads, have you considered the possibility that the issues with the 4680 battery ramp leave Tesla battery constrained, hence the squib on the model 2 announcement. Maybe Elon is loathe to rely on external battery suppliers in the short to medium term to meet model 2 demand.
That's why
My theories on the compact car:
1. There were two design teams, one for Robotaxi and another for the compact car. It became clear there was little need for both, and the compact is basically a variant of the Robotaxi.
2. Tesla decided the future of mass transportation is the Robotaxi and therefore there’s reduced market for the compact car, and also it’s a highly competitive low margin business
3. A Robotaxi could still have a steering wheel and pedals until FSD is level 4 and far safer than a human in all circumstances. The Robotaxi can be sold to both taxi companies and consumers.
Btw, does anyone know why with every car being sold getting an FSD demo drive now, which takes approx at least an extra 30-45 min of a sales persons sales time. , are Sales people being let go. I am wondering are they so bearish on their own sales forecast they do not need the staff even with longer time to sell the vehicles. I would appreciate any clarity on this .
Tks
In Musk's most recent biography the author says that Elon didn't even want to put a steering wheel in the new low cost vehicle and his team had to argue with him to include it, which seems crazy. Maybe this new focus on the robotaxi is a sign of the reemergence of that debate within Tesla.
That is probably true, but I can see why Musk is reticent over the compact.
I can see no reason why they would not produce both - theyre almost certainly effectively the same vehicle, the market for robotaxi may take a while to open up owing to regulatory delay, so they will need compact car sales to fill up the production facilities and secure ec
economies of scale.
The taxi will be much bigger business in the long run but will need compact sales in order to get there.
Dilemma that Tesla has is that the compact car market is largest in Europe+Asia and North America will be first and large for robotaxi. Since the new platform and new MFG process will be pioneered in Austin that biases the roll out plan towards more Robotaxi initially and then more compact as Berlin and Shanghai plant #2 or India or ... comes on-line
08/08 Must show FSD Demo, Prototype reveal and incorporating Tesla Bot as walking talking part of event…. Let’s see some sizzle!!! 💥
I can totally see Tesla unveiling the Robô-Táxi/ Model A (sexy cArs) as robô-fleet only from Austin and consumer vehicle only when GiGa México comes online. Identical cars, Steer by wire disabled by provider during Robô-taxi function. Initially, sales to 3-4 large fleet providers initially, no public sales until Mexico/India come online.
Reason Model A makes sense:
1. SEXY CARS
2. A for Autonomy
3. In Canada… Model Eh!
Love it when you talk about Boeing. As I just hear BOING BOING 😂
Almost every one of the many negative Tesla headlines start with “Elon Musk’s Tesla……” and yet I rarely see an article about SpaceX starting with “Elon Musk’s SpaceX……”. Hmmm
I think you’re wrong on whether Tesla will operate robotaxi fleet. With Tesla’s software and updates being such a critical part of the taxi, they can’t separate themselves from operations like a Boeing could. What would make more sense is licensing FSD hardware software stack and releasing updates kinda like android.
The economy car is called robo taxi according to Musk and Tesla during previous talks to investors. I am expecting both the one with steering wheel and the one without to be shown August 8... They need to sell a lot of cars before FSD is legally allowed widespread enough to sell ones without steering wheels in mass numbers...
Oh, and ...data... They need lots of data for the new platform for training .. they need to sell a shitload of the economy car so they can train the actual robotaxi...
So long as the Robotaxi looks like a regular car, a hatchback or something, adding a steering wheel and power/brake pedals with steer-by-wire should be easy. What I am staid if is that the robotaxi looks like a mini-van.
I agree Farzad that many just don't believe. Also the same people who said I will never get a smart phone. and on and on. Money talks always. EV's are so much cheaper , easier, better in every way. Same will be said for autonomy.
This is the best description of Tesla's current state that I've seen. The valley of despair.
Good robotaxies should be very different from a regular car just without a steering wheel and pedals. City robotaxi should be tall (making entry/exit faster, more comfortable and accessible), with more vertical seating position, much more space for luggage inside the cabin. Think Londons black cabs. It's a completely different body that works very well as a taxi, but very few people would buy as a personal car.
Osborne Shamzborne. The R2 was announced so people don't buy a MY. Smart move. Tesla should take a hint.
Lol yes Tesla could learn so much from Rivian 😂😂😂
Where do you charge a Rivian? Tesla super charger.
If your goal is to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, the only logical solution is to favor robotaxi over the cheap car version, miles driven is what counts not parked vehicles. Also this maximizes your return as additional income is generated from taxis directly or indirectly. A no brainer here, not sure why this is so hard for people to figure out.
The interesting thing is that this will completely wipe out the competition at an even accelerated rate by decreasing the demand for cars at large!
I dont want a Robotaxi…save it for city people and spin off that division. I love cars and trucks with unique functional personalities and like Tesla’s innovations. I want a Cybertruck and Roadster NOW! If Tesla/Elon sterilizes vehicles to generic/minimalist clones, I hope to have other choices…So long Tesla and thanks for all the fish!
To completely remove all vehicles off the road is a transition I’m sure he will have Change Management for…
Long term full RoboTaxi; however, the change will occur at a build-variable rate.
And then there’s energy… That’s the real premise for Tesla. Gas=War
so shifting for energy without wars is the way! ☀️⛳️😎
The difference between us in here and them out there is that we know we’re crazy.
You can reduce the amount of privately made cars and still grow your your products from suppliers as the amount of vehicles the amount of vehicles he's growing
8:21 the lens hasn't changed because Tesla hasn't used traditional advertising. it's 'traditional' because the public is so used to getting information from paid advertisements, they would rather believe commercials on a screen than witnessing their neighbors
I wanna Tesla Taco Truck 🌮🤨🌮
44:31 my best was Christopher Eric Hitchens
British-American author and journalist
Anyone looking at Tesla as a car company is priced out of the stock. The multiple is in part FSD, Optimus, storage, 4680, charging network, etc. Given v12 I am not worried about the stock price.
24:00 This was an ignorant comment. How can he not understand basic dynamics of markets and competition? Glad you mentioned who the real competition was.
Boeing/Airlines analogy doesn't work. Companies like Boeing *NEED* the capital. They can't afford to make a fleet of airplanes, and operating them is WAAAY more complicated than a simple robotaxi. Interiors will all be the same, and I do think Tesla will operate the fleet themselves. I think it's the most logical thing for them to do, even though it is a new business to get into.
Insane
Fingers crossed we see low 1's soon... The lower the better as far as i'm concerned lol.
It makes sense to me for Tesla to focus more on autonomy. We've seen what happened with the Cybertruck. It was everywhere on social media. Now get that same type of coverage out there with self driving cars. Once that happens, everyone will want the car that drives itself. Some ppl will blow their budget to get a model 3 and when the 25k hits the market it will fly off lots. But you have to give them something they want first. Nobody is really checking for Teslas like that right now. Get the FSD fully functional and well marketed and their cars will be on wishlists. Hopefully this will be timed perfectly with lowered interest rates but even if not ppl spend on what they want.
To start, Tesla will build the $25000 in various versions. One for the consumer and one as an autonomous taxi. Only when approval has been received from the authorities will the number of robotaxis be increased and the ability of the other $25,000 unlocked as robotaxis. This accelerates the release of robotaxis and reduces the risk of losing margins for some time in the car business. This minimizes risk and increases the probability of winning for everyone.
2nd half is basically about the Innovator's Dilemma
CNBC claimed today that Elon wants 15% of the stock (in market cap) granted to him. Is that true?
What happened to the Tesla insurance rollout? My point being robo taxis rollout will be much slower. Insurance is at the state level. Taxi service is at the city government level.
Tesla until now have been TAM (ICE) grab/displacement, whereas the future is TMA expansion. It's harder for people to assess TAM expansion.
I don't get why you keep referring to level 4. That's not the goal. The holy grail is level 5 and _that's_ the goal they're about to achieve
Bottom line if there's $ to be made with acceptable risk investment WILL flow!! Simple economics
I would say they are going to release the robo taxi app and then reveal the compact car but show it without the steering wheel and pedals and call it the robo taxi so they can test it in public without Osborning the other cars on 8/8
Does anyone think that tesla will just have a robotaxi that you can easily attach a steering wheel with steer by wire technology ?
No one knows. But it is scary how many big players are caught up on the 25k car