ARK’s Tasha Keeney Reveals Tesla First Robotaxi Location

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  • Опубликовано: 1 май 2024
  • Larry Goldberg is a serial entrepreneur (co-founder of Sapiens Decision), angel investor, and co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
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Комментарии • 265

  • @BrighterwithHerbert
    @BrighterwithHerbert  Месяц назад +1

    I hope this video helped you get brighter about Tesla!
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    • @anthonylosego
      @anthonylosego Месяц назад

      Don't forget, you have to understand the take rate of ride hailers. How many miles can be collected by the 100k miles? If you have a vehicle in a small town where there is only 200,000 miles per year of hailing, you will be hard pressed to multiply out anything more than 3 vehicles for that town. Large cities, yes, there is better market for it. But you can't calculate beyond demand. However, you will need more than 3 vehicles because of concurrent fairs. You'll be hard pressed to get that 100k out of each of those 3 cars. Consider too, you can place the cars where you want them, but you can't choose the destinations. If they go out of your market, some miles will be lost. Fortunately, once you have the data of the actual demand, you can then find the actual take rate and even optimize location availability based on that data. Tesla can do this. But to predict it is much difficult.

    • @anthonylosego
      @anthonylosego Месяц назад

      Another real question is, even if disengagement is extremely rare, what does a robotaxi do if there is no one in it? You can't have even one disengagement and have no solution for that. Otherwise, it may end up in bad situations. I sense there may be some degree of remote operation if they come out before they have zero disengagements in all situations.

  • @BasementBerean
    @BasementBerean Месяц назад +120

    I got a FSD demo two weeks ago. I sat in the passenger seat while a Tesla rep programmed a test drive rout of a few miles. The car would have done the whole drive itself except the rep showed me how easy it is to disengage and reengage FSD. It was amazing.

    • @DeepValueOptions
      @DeepValueOptions Месяц назад +4

      Absolutely. And it’s just the beginning

    • @dynomotivedyno9194
      @dynomotivedyno9194 Месяц назад +1

      You're lying. It needs someone in the driver seat. And it's not amazing. It can kinda do the simple stuff that a 10 year old human can do. It cannot do anything more difficult.

    • @RussInGA
      @RussInGA Месяц назад

      @@dynomotivedyno9194 lol.. and that comment is what ignorance looks like

    • @richmargin6082
      @richmargin6082 Месяц назад

      Nice. Cool to hear this

    • @davidmarkmann6098
      @davidmarkmann6098 Месяц назад

      ​@@dynomotivedyno9194 Total moron.

  • @jacksouthern7929
    @jacksouthern7929 Месяц назад +4

    Thanks Larry, you are so much on the mark in your assessment of Tesla issues, including their FSD program! Appreciate you so much!

  • @dyer-ie3pj
    @dyer-ie3pj Месяц назад +33

    This seems like the worst period.
    Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!

    • @kushnerq12-vs4io
      @kushnerq12-vs4io Месяц назад

      Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Devion Jane

    • @oprahqz5jdq12
      @oprahqz5jdq12 Месяц назад

      I agree just reached my goal of $500k yearly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading..

    • @dyer-ie3pj
      @dyer-ie3pj Месяц назад

      Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,

    • @kushnerq12-vs4io
      @kushnerq12-vs4io Месяц назад

      Her technical analysis is excellent and her interpretation/projections of the market are so accurate I sometimes ask myself if she is a human The point she is the perfect trader to follow for advice and guidance

    • @tomq12
      @tomq12 Месяц назад

      Wait is this the same lady? That helps me with 17k investment “wow" such a small world..

  • @MrAlanfalk73
    @MrAlanfalk73 Месяц назад +15

    I think Teslas robotaxis will come faster than most think. The progress is not linial anymore but exponential. More and more compute, more cars and better build software . I think we will see the first this year.

    • @ArendJanV
      @ArendJanV Месяц назад +1

      💰

    • @nicktrish2008
      @nicktrish2008 Месяц назад

      Couldn’t agree more. No one predicted China approval.

    • @mikemarklin2105
      @mikemarklin2105 Месяц назад +2

      Most commentators have no clue as to how advanced Tesla is on self driving. They have never been in a Tesla and certainly never experienced the most recent versions. I discount their comments as being from a ‘no knowledge’ perspective.

    • @SonTimba
      @SonTimba Месяц назад

      Agree but “this year” is way too soon, I would say 3-5. I have used FSD and its amazing, BUT its not there yet.

  • @richardereed9205
    @richardereed9205 Месяц назад +1

    As FSD 12 gets closer to 13 (a teenager now) it is at a point where as an interim fix such as Cruise's off site human monitor. With a single intervention in several drives a single monitor could handle multiple vehicles, receive a notification when a questionable situation arose, and handle the crisis. With one intervention per hour and remedying the situation in 3 minutes or less a single monitor could handle 20 cars at a minimum, so allocate 1/15th of a salary for each car, and that worker is easily covered. That covered number of cars would grow with each advancement of FSD until there was no longer a need for monitoring.

  • @TeslaEVolution
    @TeslaEVolution Месяц назад +2

    At 9k hours in a year and at $1.00/mile, 50 miles/hour, utilization rate 70%=$315,000.00 revenues minus cost/year=AMAZING! At just 40% utilization: $180k revenues minus costs.

  • @boooosh2007
    @boooosh2007 Месяц назад +9

    Misleading Headline. Its a suggestion from Tasha, that Robotaxi will first be in California.

    • @NoWastedCalories
      @NoWastedCalories Месяц назад

      People have become so desensitized to lying and deception because we are surrounded by lies, liars, and misinformation and it creeps in at many little ways.

  • @thefish5861
    @thefish5861 Месяц назад +21

    Everything depends on FSD being ready at some point. Even though I use it a lot, I have no idea when it might be good enough.

    • @shawncooper8131
      @shawncooper8131 Месяц назад

      I think each city given time, they can farm the data out to make them work. 3 5 10 15 years. I just think on the internet in the 90s vs now.

    • @Crunch_dGH
      @Crunch_dGH Месяц назад +2

      Re: FSD Perceived as "Good Enough". I've also used it whenever possible, since Mar'22. But the real issue is how much Jonesing do you have when it suspends you for 5 days? I've learned to be MUCH move avoidant of letting that happen, especially since End2End Neural Networked V12 installed! Got V12.3.6 yesterday & can't wait to try autopark/summon! I'm thinking that V12.4.* will be another level up.

    • @oliverbergfeld1606
      @oliverbergfeld1606 Месяц назад +1

      As soon as Tesla takes over coverage for FSD topics, it should fly

    • @danc3977
      @danc3977 Месяц назад +2

      It’s currently hockeysticking so within the next 24 months FSD will be perfect (I.e. much safer than top 1 percentile of human drivers).

    • @justingregoris3164
      @justingregoris3164 Месяц назад

      In Toronto Canada and Vancouver Canada, for example, it still has work to do, when comparing other states in the USA. I try not to get my hopes up but I presume it'll be truly dialed in by mid to late 2025. IMHO

  • @SurfectedGermany
    @SurfectedGermany Месяц назад +6

    Larry and he’s years long experience in business is gold!! 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽🙏🏼

  • @RussellBWalker
    @RussellBWalker Месяц назад +2

    Thanks!

  • @chrisheath2637
    @chrisheath2637 Месяц назад +18

    As a software/hardware developer of robotic type systems - multiple sensors (lidar radar vision) can create more problems than it solves. Multiple signals need hugely more compute, to solve via AI. Humans use (mostly) vision to drive...imagine if we had a radar screen, and a lidar screen to look at, as well as our vision, when we drive.`First principles thinking says that isn't a good system. Too many inputs can be worse than a top level, single input, (vision) , which is how we blood-bags drive....adding multiple cameras solves the "additional sensor" issue, in my humble opinion....

    • @michaelnurse9089
      @michaelnurse9089 Месяц назад +2

      My take is that multiple sensors types are not inherently bad and the training and inference compute is not that much more - but it is the quality of the sensors is of massive importance. With radar and lidar Tesla was getting massive amounts of false positives. The lidar and rader would see things that are not there asking the driver to take over. Cameras don't really have that issue.

    • @Crunch_dGH
      @Crunch_dGH Месяц назад

      Re: Vision-Only FSD "Sufficient"? I've been following ADS, since the old DARPA Challenge days, from which I concluded that LiDAR lacked sufficient resolution to complete with vision. What's your engineering take on that? I also agree with Munro, that FLIR might be a significant help in highly inclement/dusty conditions. Would FLIR's cost be justified to accommodate those highly rare scenarios or would vision just reducing speed, when temporarily obscured, suffice?
      Meanwhile, Re: FSD Perceived as "Good Enough". I've also used it whenever possible, since Mar'22. But the real issue is how much Jonesing do you have when it suspends you for 5 days? I've learned to be MUCH move avoidant of letting that happen, especially since End2End Neural Networked V12 installed from the old heuristic coded V11! Got V12.3.6 yesterday & can't wait to try autopark/summon! I'm thinking that V12.4.* will be another level up, as it seems that NN "adaptations" may actually have started to deploy, mid-revision. I've "detected" such corrections running past the same "troublesome" points in my drives. Is that what you're seeing in V12, vs V11?

    • @BLAISEDAHL96
      @BLAISEDAHL96 Месяц назад

      This lines up with the “combinatorial explosion” problem Jon Vervake has discussed in AI research. The fewer sensor modalities means greater focus concentrated on one.

    • @Jason_xofilos
      @Jason_xofilos Месяц назад +2

      Also if it is too foggy or raining to hard or blizzard it white our conditions or in a hurricane or tornadoes it may be best not to drive the autonomous BEV (Tesla RobiTaxi or CyberCab). I was thinking using otter sensors when needed might help but you probably don’t want to be around humans driving in those extreme weather conditions. Thoughts?

    • @tedmoss
      @tedmoss Месяц назад

      Well you humble opinion is mostly correct. The problem can become a "three body problem", impossible to solve, in fact we use filters to avoid some of the problems.

  • @MrValVet
    @MrValVet Месяц назад +14

    So many smart people in the Tesla community

  • @benc9979
    @benc9979 Месяц назад +4

    I live deep in the woods of western Massachusetts, our roads are terrible. FSD does great on our no line roads. It does not do well with our potholes, you can easily total your car if you’re not paying attention.

    • @batchint
      @batchint Месяц назад

      it’s like finding large puddles at night… 💥

    • @petersnelling9047
      @petersnelling9047 Месяц назад

      Same here in Pennsylvania.

    • @tedmoss
      @tedmoss Месяц назад +1

      Wait.

    • @richardyoung9583
      @richardyoung9583 4 дня назад +1

      Mm who said that the quality of governance can be determined by the size and quantity of the potholes😳😳😳

    • @benc9979
      @benc9979 4 дня назад

      @@richardyoung9583 it’s true and frustrating

  • @faramarzmokri9136
    @faramarzmokri9136 Месяц назад +1

    There has to be an additional $4.00 surcharge per trip on top of $1:00 per mile Tasha’s estimate to cover short trips. Assuming 15 trip per day = $60 per day for surcharges alone. This amount should cover tesla’s monthly payments including the FSD subscriptions , insurance , maintenance and electric charges leaving charges for miles driven as pure profit.

    • @bobwallace9753
      @bobwallace9753 Месяц назад

      Pre-covid inflation Elon stated that Tesla could run a complete (all costs) robotaxi service for $0.18 per mile. Obviously things like waiting times and repositioning while empty would have been factored in. Bump that up to $0.23 per mile to allow for the approximately 25% inflation bite we've suffered.
      Short term Tesla will be able to charge $2 or so per mile. Just make it cheaper than Uber/Lyft plus average tip. Once there are enough robos to replace driven taxis then the rate is likely to start coming down. The magic charge per mile is about $0.60 per mile which makes it cost about the same as driving one's own car.
      Tesla, in order to fulfill their mission statement, needs to price private ICEV ownership out of the market.
      Selling for $0.60 with a cost of $0.23 is a 160% profit.

  • @Michael-il5wd
    @Michael-il5wd Месяц назад +1

    Interesting

  • @blakebeesley8953
    @blakebeesley8953 Месяц назад +2

    100k a year is 274 miles a day. Depending on charging infrastructure (auto charging) that seems a bit high. For longer trips it likely a car can hit that, but a place like SF being 7 miles by 7 miles, even when the car is carrying someone, it will mostly be sitting in slow traffic or stop lights.

    • @GR-sg2lv
      @GR-sg2lv Месяц назад +1

      274 miles a day is ( 10 trips of 27.4 miles ) so 10 single trips to the airport - very achievable.

  • @keesschenk9441
    @keesschenk9441 Месяц назад

    The margins on the robotaxi will be high, but the cost of the fast growing datacenters needed for FSD will also be high. I wonder how these costs are applied in the very positive financial modelspoor.

  • @martinguila
    @martinguila Месяц назад

    Tesla has communicated that the gross profit per robotaxi would be 30 000 usd per year. So that's the number I use but I guess it could be higher at least from the start.

  • @tgreg990
    @tgreg990 Месяц назад

    21:44 the log e of 10 / 4 years is 60+ percent per year compound annual gross rate. Please use cagr for growth rates

  • @neilmurphy7594
    @neilmurphy7594 Месяц назад +6

    I'd be very curious how Tesla intends to prevent Chinese government or Chinese competitors from accessing and copying FSD model weights.

    • @puhhaka
      @puhhaka Месяц назад +1

      Just like in preventing competitors from optically copying the z80 chip: crap trapping information, that looks legit, is included.

    • @ssing7113
      @ssing7113 Месяц назад

      That’s why he did it…. Why do u think Tesla factory is actually owned by Tesla US…
      Because in return for his nod of approval. He hands over the keys to how things work and how he lays it out
      Elon technically came in and gave China an actual right to say they are a competing auto industry. Elon did that…. Single handily…

  • @elvinthalund5193
    @elvinthalund5193 Месяц назад +1

    Regulatory problems are not related to self-driving, rather to local city/county laws related to cab services. You see that happening now in California where RoboTaxi's has to comply with local laws. I'm not saying that can't be solved, maybe using Grok to know local laws, but it's not just as simple as no regulation. There actually will be a myriade of local regulation.

    • @737smartin
      @737smartin Месяц назад

      There will always be regions of strong incumbent resistance to new, better ways to do business. Tale as old as time. USUALLY the better economic model triumphs. The bigger the disparity, the better the and faster the conquest...and the disparity here appears pretty huge.

    • @elvinthalund5193
      @elvinthalund5193 Месяц назад

      @@737smartin 100% agree, but it does not change the fact that RoboTaxis will have to comply with local zoning laws, in the same way as human taxis. This will require local knowledge to operate, which could come from Grok.

  • @nattydred2593
    @nattydred2593 Месяц назад +1

    I think Monte Carlo is most useful when you have some real data from a small data set, or a small amount of data from a large data set, but not enough to make statistically significant conclusions. It allows you to extrapolate when you don't yet have statistical significance.
    If you have no real data at all, and are just making everything up based on guesses, Monte Carlo just gives you more guesses. It does nothing to improve the quality of your guesses. Maybe it allows you to explore how sensitive outcomes are to changes in certain variables, but that's it.
    I don't think it makes Ark forecasts any more dependable.

    • @sjoerd7227
      @sjoerd7227 Месяц назад

      Exactly: bs in = bs out

  • @marianneleone3792
    @marianneleone3792 Месяц назад

    There is so much focus on August 8th for FSD which I am excited for but there will be an earnings call in July before that how will they handle that without stealing the Thunder from August 8th.

  • @msldsd211048
    @msldsd211048 12 дней назад

    Those numbers are very optimistic. To achieve $100K a year the cars would neet to operate 9hrs a day every day on average. I am not sure if downtime, charging time, cleaning time, or repair time has been considered. The more likely number is about $30K a year. There will of course be costs which would include significant depreciation and insurance costs, charging costs and maintenance costs also there may be local licensing costs. Competition will force ongoing prices reduction as has happened with the EV market. Don't hold your breath guys.

  • @jmbelarmin
    @jmbelarmin Месяц назад +1

    Regulators do not intentionally try to prevent companies from releasing products and services, or else there will be no use for regulators. People think erroneously that Tesla’s path to regulatory approval is like going through the eye of a needle.

  • @7hx89
    @7hx89 Месяц назад +1

    Tasha - solid analysis therefore huge respect. Cathy 2.0 she will be.

  • @ro2778
    @ro2778 Месяц назад

    I remember Larry's prediction a month ago about the share price post Q1 earnings, and he thought minimum 10% dip :D

  • @JLizard
    @JLizard Месяц назад +2

    I'm glad I'm not the only one who was SHOCKED by not only China's acceptance of FSD,
    but also the impact it had on putting TSLA back on the Wall Street track. Thanks Larry and Herbert!

  • @antonkarridian2895
    @antonkarridian2895 Месяц назад +1

    Uber does not gross $140K per car per year! You are mistaken.

  • @richardereed9205
    @richardereed9205 Месяц назад +1

    To be approved as a taxi driver FSD does not need to be far better than any human driver, but just equal to any licensed taxi driver. The only caveat is that they have insurance equal to or better than taxi vehicles.

  • @davidrounds3245
    @davidrounds3245 Месяц назад

    Florida has already approved autonomous cars.

  • @SwiftlyJack
    @SwiftlyJack 26 дней назад

    People are only looking at the supply side to calculate the possible revenue/year. they forget that if all Tesla’s are offering taxi services their will not be enough demand for that many Tesla’s.

  • @samehabouez8267
    @samehabouez8267 Месяц назад

    Yes but also they’re ignoring demand and whether it will be there and constant

  • @ramonpunsalang3397
    @ramonpunsalang3397 Месяц назад

    FSD and Robotaxi are a dream come true for China. What better way to potentially track and monitor peoples' movements?

  • @MikeCasey311
    @MikeCasey311 Месяц назад

    I subscribed to FSD for my new model Y.
    What I got is V11.3

    • @mikemarklin2105
      @mikemarklin2105 Месяц назад

      Just ensure your car is connected to a Wi-Fi network and you should get the latest update within an hour or two. Alternatively log a service call.

    • @HuckWeed
      @HuckWeed Месяц назад

      v11.3 is the UI/UX version. there is a different versioning for FSD though it can be confusing at times! You can check what FSD version you have in the software section of settings in your car.

    • @MikeCasey311
      @MikeCasey311 Месяц назад

      @@HuckWeed Thank you.

    • @MikeCasey311
      @MikeCasey311 Месяц назад

      @@HuckWeed Huck it says Full Self-Driving (Bata) V11.4.9
      I think the current nueral-net version is 12.3

  • @3DThrills
    @3DThrills Месяц назад

    Robotaxi prices won't be super cheap simply because costs are less. They will charge whatever the demand allows, just as they did with the Foundation Series gimmick.
    All they have to do is undercut Uber, they don't have to cut the price in half.
    In fact they can charge the same price because people, especially women, will choose the Robotaxis to avoid dealing with an unknown human being.

  • @eugeniustheodidactus8890
    @eugeniustheodidactus8890 Месяц назад +1

    🚀💰🚀💰 *RoboRickshaw*

  • @cyclenut9992
    @cyclenut9992 Месяц назад +1

    I see fsd being solved in the next 12 months, but it will be a few years before robotaxi takes off. Jmo. The average person is pretty skeptical about autonomous driving, they will have to see it over and over before they are convinced it’s safe.

    • @bobwallace9753
      @bobwallace9753 Месяц назад

      I was in SF a couple weeks back. There were a lot of Waymo robos driving around. I doubt there will be a shortage of willing passengers starting week one. The skeptics can come around later. There will not be enough robos to service everyone at first.

    • @robertwoodhouse-bm7kt
      @robertwoodhouse-bm7kt 14 дней назад

      People have no issues using Waymo so FSD will sell well

  • @marcusvandenbosch5748
    @marcusvandenbosch5748 Месяц назад +3

    I believe BYD will partner with Tesla and that's the reason FSD got approved in China. Tesla needs a strong EV partner to take the entire marked rapidly

  • @ytenl
    @ytenl 29 дней назад

    Uber drivers do between 140 and 200 per day. At 100,000 miles per year, the Robotaxi is driving 274 miles per day. It doesn't account for any downtime for repairs or other maintenance that need to be done for a car driving that much.
    The car needs to go to the nearest Service center and good luck waiting for parts to be there.
    Overly optimistic models by Tasha without explaining any detail.
    Better analysis is done by Cern Basher and has a ton of realistic assumptions.

  • @user-vl5cg1zi4m
    @user-vl5cg1zi4m Месяц назад +2

    Tesla already has a robot on wheels, just not deployed in factory...yet.

  • @silberlinie
    @silberlinie Месяц назад

    When it came to Tesla as a private robotaxi:
    did Larry Goldberg only think once about
    the fact that it requires interior and exterior
    maintenance after every single ride?
    At least the essentials?
    Just like every taxi driver can only survive if
    his vehicle is tip-top and in very good condition?
    Otherwise no one would get into someone
    else's car that wasn't absolutely clean.

  • @TeslaEVolution
    @TeslaEVolution Месяц назад

    ROBO-TAXIS ARE INEVITABLE - Just so much better than human drivers. FSD 12.3.4 is amazing, not 100% all the time but very close. 8/8 will be interesting!!

  • @Mrewink5
    @Mrewink5 Месяц назад

    As a separate safety issue, FSD cars will probably require at least a mannequin be in the usual driver seat. Other drivers and pedestrians might become distracted when seeing no driver and very likely cause accidents.

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад +2

      That's just people being stupid. You can't fix stupid. I get what you're saying but that's just in the beginning.

    • @BongoWongoOG
      @BongoWongoOG Месяц назад

      What? Like the inflatable pilot in Airplane movie? Haha, that would be funny, but completely stupid too lol

    • @Mrewink5
      @Mrewink5 Месяц назад

      @@didier_777 Yeah, I believe some people are crazy enough to jump in front of a slow moving FSD car just to try and collect insurance. Same thing with other drivers who might quick stop in front of a FSD car just to try and collect insurance. In a crazy world people do crazy things.

    • @codingispower1816
      @codingispower1816 Месяц назад

      @@Mrewink5 will be the exceptions not the rule

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад

      @@Mrewink5 ​@Mrewink5 The difference is that if anyone does that there are 8 cameras that will record everything so I don't think people will be dumb enough to try to scam the insurance companies with video footage. If anything those people will stay away from Teslas.

  • @RobertWinkky
    @RobertWinkky Месяц назад +18

    She dodged the questions on how the vehicles are charged. 100k miles per year is 273 miles per day or 1.5 charges. Who, how, and where are you going to charge them? With Tesla slowing down supercharger deployment especially.

    • @natpainter8185
      @natpainter8185 Месяц назад +2

      night

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад +2

      The range of a model Y is 260. I can see them adjusting the batteries to last one full day. They will charge overnight at a Tesla service station where someone will also clean them. That's not hard.

    • @ThysRoes
      @ThysRoes Месяц назад +1

      1.5 charges is 1.5 hours tops. Should be manageable.

    • @user-vl5cg1zi4m
      @user-vl5cg1zi4m Месяц назад

      They'll be charged by remote, by same group of people who remotely monitor the auto-bots and get them out jambs that they will occasionally find themselves in.

    • @DelTaco6
      @DelTaco6 Месяц назад +4

      They're going to need a depot to park and maintain them at in each major territory. I would imagine the chargers would be there. That's one charge at night, one partial charge in the day at about 20-25 minutes.

  • @chasbeggs3366
    @chasbeggs3366 Месяц назад +3

    Great commentary. On the fence with the new glasses. Ha

    • @oliverbergfeld1606
      @oliverbergfeld1606 Месяц назад +2

      Na, clearly on the No side of the fence. She seems to putting in an effort to look more geeky and less attractive

    • @markharmon4963
      @markharmon4963 Месяц назад

      Absolutely.​@@oliverbergfeld1606

  • @iandavies4853
    @iandavies4853 Месяц назад +1

    Monte Carlo method is great, averages out range of guesses of different inputs.
    Intended for realistic confidence interval.
    Need sensitivity analysis too to determine influential factors in model.
    Beware of GIGO garbage in, garbage out.

    • @michaelnurse9089
      @michaelnurse9089 Месяц назад

      These tools should only be used by those with high awareness of what they are using. Think chainsaws.

  • @appl314
    @appl314 Месяц назад

    Googled fsd for Canada...at least one province has outrightly banned it."Earlier this month, changes to B.C.'s Motor Vehicle Act quietly came into effect, prohibiting the use of fully automated self-driving vehicles.Apr 22, 2024"

  • @stefanhallin
    @stefanhallin Месяц назад

    As much as I like Herbert and I really do, I cringe just about every time he shares time with Larry because he keeps cutting in, doesn’t let Larry finish his sentence and/or thoughts, never mind expanding on his (Larry’s) thoughts.
    Larry at 78, has a lot of experience but still a young and furtive mind albeit with the restraint of innumerable years in business experience.
    This guy, Larry, is just such a resource of knowledge and measured thoughts of future outcomes.

  • @iandavies4853
    @iandavies4853 Месяц назад +1

    To increase TAM, need to aim for much lower rates than Uber.
    Tesla TaaS won’t merely replace Uber / taxis. That’s tiny market.
    It’s got to replace vehicle ownership, even substitute for public transport.
    Big challenge is to get to shared travel - almost always we travel like a herd, same direction.
    That won’t be on re-purposed private vehicle.
    Next generation can’t come soon enough, dedicated taxi design, for future, not past.

    • @arseliopereira2541
      @arseliopereira2541 Месяц назад

      Obviousy you don't live in a city. Robotaxi can't substitute for public traffic. If everyone that took the subway in New York City took a Robotaxi instead to work I don't think that many would make it. That would be one increadible traffic jam.

    • @iandavies4853
      @iandavies4853 Месяц назад

      @@arseliopereira2541 trains only work well as you describe, are poor service everywhere else.
      When younger, I found a pushbike to be quicker.
      Bus is poor everywhere in my experience. Trams are poor compromise.
      But it’ll be a challenge to get TaaS to work as I propose. Who’s up for it?

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад

      @@arseliopereira2541 It will definitely replace buses but maybe not trains.

    • @arseliopereira2541
      @arseliopereira2541 Месяц назад

      @@iandavies4853 I'm not suggesting that it's better to ride a bus than in a Robotaxi. I'm just saying that there isn't enough road capacity for eveyone to drive into the downtown of most cities in their own vehicle.

    • @iandavies4853
      @iandavies4853 Месяц назад

      @@arseliopereira2541 exactly. Hence need for shared vehicle, not single occupancy.
      I see lots of huge 50 seat buses with 2 passengers (off-peak).
      Still same convoluted route, picking up no-one.
      CBDs are different problem.
      We all talk to our own world. That’s not mine.

  • @JJs_playground
    @JJs_playground Месяц назад +1

    And autonomous can't be available 24/7 because it has to charge. It'll be available 22/7.

  • @elvinthalund5193
    @elvinthalund5193 Месяц назад

    True value (productivity gain) requires change in behaviour, so RoboTaxi will have much more impact in low income countries (China, India), where people does not own a car, and with RoboTaxis can afford to drive. In high income countries (USA, Europe) where people already have a car.

  • @-COMMON-MAN
    @-COMMON-MAN Месяц назад

    ❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️

  • @Umanskys
    @Umanskys Месяц назад +4

    Uber drivers don’t make 140k per year - I know this for sure. Average is probably around 50-70k

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад +5

      They mean total revenue not just the driver.

  • @lalithkx
    @lalithkx Месяц назад +2

    It will need time to charge

    • @grahambrown42
      @grahambrown42 Месяц назад

      Do you think everyone forgot about charging?
      100,000 per year is 270 miles per day, so one charge per day for around 35 minutes.

  • @robertsmith6408
    @robertsmith6408 4 дня назад

    Tasha looks like the pretty girls with glasses that i went to college with that were Sociology majors!

  • @robleacock4949
    @robleacock4949 Месяц назад

    She said "double digit thousands" per car per year, not Herbert's "hundred thousand dollars per car per year".

  • @robertwoodhouse-bm7kt
    @robertwoodhouse-bm7kt 14 дней назад

    Robotaxis wont replace all methods of commuting in cities. They wii replace the taxi services who use human drivers and the cost of tho 26:59 se drivers. People in several large cities are comfortable using waymo driverless taxis. FSD will be cheaper cars and cheaper running costs. FSD will double Tesla profits. As analists feed in FSD profits their profits estimets will boom.

  • @greghelton4668
    @greghelton4668 Месяц назад

    Chances are Musk is overestimating the pace that FSD will be adopted, assuming it reaches level 4/5. $100k is the same price that NY charged for taxi medallions. At the peak there were 300,000 taxis in the US. Very few people will dish out $100k. Tesla needs a sub $25k car for the masses.

  • @tireddad6541
    @tireddad6541 Месяц назад

    I assume she factors tires, and battery costs. Warranty gone after one year. Who knows how insurance would work as there is no driver.

  • @TheCaminoGuide
    @TheCaminoGuide Месяц назад +3

    The robotaxi/cybercab doesn't even need to be anything different than what they are already producing. Just being able to summon a regular model 3 or Y would be better than UBER. I don't need the driver. I can drive myself. What I need is for a car to show up at my door when I want it. Using "summon" through the Tesla app I could have any one of the 6 million Teslas currently on the road if they are put into the "taxi fleet". The future "cybercabs" in the densly populated cities don't need a dash or steering wheel or any of the instrument cluster. Think about that.... You could instead have a large compartment with rear facing seats where the dash/steering wheel is currently located and the front facing rear seat in the back...amazing leg room, seats 6 VERY comfortably in a car the size of a VW Golf.

  • @batchint
    @batchint Месяц назад

    is that an apple samsung…. divide..

  • @bentray1908
    @bentray1908 Месяц назад +1

    Double digit profit per car per year is 10k-99k i believe

  • @mlhutche
    @mlhutche Месяц назад

    Why would Tesla license FSD? Small ROI compared with owning.

  • @nicktrish2008
    @nicktrish2008 Месяц назад

    Tesla will launch an actual robo taxi service on 8-8. IMO.. Austin/Vegas/San Francisco.

  • @glademaster
    @glademaster Месяц назад

    How does $1 per mile turn into $100k per year? The math doesn’t seem to make sense. They expect 100k paid miles per year?

  • @jackwilliamburgess
    @jackwilliamburgess Месяц назад

    An issue (maybe temporary) could be pushback by Taxi drivers/Uber drivers. It's a lot of jobs which could disappear, a very old industry. Consider how much taxi drivers battled against Uber. Now consider Taxi's AND Uber against robo-taxi?

  • @NicholasShanks
    @NicholasShanks Месяц назад

    25:36 Herbert, you frequently talk over people; please sort out your lag issues!

  • @ben10pa
    @ben10pa Месяц назад

    People wonder how Tesla could be worth a significant portion of worlds GDP. That's what happens when you convert unpaid labor (every unpaid driver) and convert that into revenue

  • @chrisloynes7796
    @chrisloynes7796 Месяц назад +2

    Let’s not be daft….not more than 1/2 of all buyers will want their car shared !!! It will take years to get to that number too !!!

    • @michaelnurse9089
      @michaelnurse9089 Месяц назад +1

      Elon is going to make 10m Robotaxis a year for exactly that reason.

    • @heythave
      @heythave Месяц назад

      I would want my robotaxi to work for me.

    • @oliverbergfeld1606
      @oliverbergfeld1606 Месяц назад

      Hm, in the US maybe, in Europe I doubt ppl will not share. Plus it is likely that TSLA will provide a rating system like Airb&b.
      Apart from that, would you not buy a car that would pay for its self, even is it takes 2, 3 or 5 years..?

    • @chrisloynes7796
      @chrisloynes7796 Месяц назад

      @@heythave yes and what..are not the average BEV a punter of the future ? Remember the problem with the market now isn’t just interest rates it’s that we’re no longer in the market movers stage but the “laggards stage” with BEV’s ! How many of your acquaintances say they hate Elon and won’t buy a car from him ?

    • @didier_777
      @didier_777 Месяц назад +1

      They will be making cars to sell and others to keep in their fleet. At first maybe it's one of 20 cars that will be robotaxi and at any point they can just ramp up as demand increases.

  • @edward_lee
    @edward_lee Месяц назад

    This lady also said Tesla should release their Robotaxis back in 2019. Shes been bullishly wrong b4

  • @tarikviaer-mcclymont5762
    @tarikviaer-mcclymont5762 Месяц назад

    Who lost money investing in ARKK?????

  • @aviralsinghal1274
    @aviralsinghal1274 Месяц назад +3

    Why is nobody addressing the demand side ? US have like 1.5 million uber cars. And even if tesla take like 1 million cars, even then it would not make much profits.

    • @taylor92493
      @taylor92493 Месяц назад

      Wouldn’t we look at demand for ground passenger transportation at many price points? Not just a direct comparison to a single company.

    • @philwelling7172
      @philwelling7172 Месяц назад +1

      Well one big factor in the demand side is the cost. Electric miles are cheaper. Autonomous miles are cheaper. Combined they will cut Uber out of the market. But the big change will be people opting to use Transport As A Service rather than buying a car.

    • @marcusvandenbosch5748
      @marcusvandenbosch5748 Месяц назад +2

      The profits per ride are much higher for a Tesla Robot taxi. Uber will disappear immediately where Tesla competes

    • @codingispower1816
      @codingispower1816 Месяц назад +1

      Uber is expensive af. If robotaxi could take me to work at the same cost I pay in gas but still less than an Uber I’d pay it so I can chill and read while it drives me

    • @aviralsinghal1274
      @aviralsinghal1274 Месяц назад

      @@codingispower1816 i agree. But for that the cost of robotaxi has to be much below 1 dollar per mile. Also it might take people a lot of time to adjust to driverless cars. Also there might behuge resistance from current uber drivers and government because of huge loss of employment.

  • @stevennelson7518
    @stevennelson7518 Месяц назад

    The narrative should soon change to "how many lives will be SAVED by FSD!". Insurance liability will differentiate what is safer.

  • @HeavenGuy
    @HeavenGuy Месяц назад

    Electric robo taxi has to charge. It can't be available 24/7.

  • @TeslaEVolution
    @TeslaEVolution Месяц назад

    For fun 100 Million Robo-Teslas AT 70% UTILIZATION * $315,000.00=3.15 TRILLIONS in revenues/year at 85% profit margin=$2.67 TRILLION IN PROFITS!!!

  • @MarcioSouza1
    @MarcioSouza1 Месяц назад

    I hope robotaxi has capability of being tele operated. Self sufficiency in 100.0% will be, I suspect, insanely harder than even 99.99%.

  • @jpmb-hz3jo
    @jpmb-hz3jo Месяц назад

    if it does reach 2000 in 2027 i ll retire so i hope so 🙂

  • @cpangws
    @cpangws Месяц назад +1

    When August 8 they will be pushing ROBO Taxi out on stage just like they did the Tesla Bot that could not walk!

  • @NicholasNerios
    @NicholasNerios Месяц назад

    Autonomous taxi companies and investors are purposely pushing for higher taxi driver wages to squeeze human labor competitors out of the region by making operation costs greater then profitability.
    Once they force a minimum wage increase (under the guise of higher labor standards for drivers) they force a region out of the market. This shows then to have on hand a solution, their autonomous products. And for nearly the same cost as a human driver these robotaxis can be deployed in a region saving clients money, reducing co2, relieving congested roads, safety of ai over human error.
    Sketchy conspiracy and easy way to force ai over human by increasing labor cost at the government level.

  • @unclejoe8279
    @unclejoe8279 Месяц назад +1

    Sure, Tesla is always in the future but never quite gets there LOL.

  • @dynomotivedyno9194
    @dynomotivedyno9194 Месяц назад

    What's the truth?!?! Tesla ALSO fired the destination charger team. Hotels and condos IN THE MIDDLE of installs are on hold, the work stopped, and emails to Tesla are bouncing!!!!
    Is Musk ok?

  • @MrPolycarpe13
    @MrPolycarpe13 Месяц назад +1

    Dear Tesla, keep ramping up Cybertruck, Go pedal to the metal on new lines for CyberCab, Keep the first 1M you produce and start up the Fleet, Never stop building and take care of your employees. Your the one baking the pie, only normal that you get to eat it too.

    • @edwardhackett-jones8126
      @edwardhackett-jones8126 Месяц назад

      Tesla’s in good condition, but do you really think they could afford to pay for 1m vehicles in one go?
      I’m sure they’ll be selling in excess of 50% of the cars off the line.
      Bear in mind the risk of building monopolies - Tesla won’t want to be faced with action on that. The pie is vast - one company doesn’t need to have it all.

  • @carlkelley4566
    @carlkelley4566 Месяц назад

    My respect for Tasha's analysis hasn't wavered over the past 3 years. But I preferred her appearance BEFORE she transitioned.

  • @DavidHaney-gx4vy
    @DavidHaney-gx4vy Месяц назад

    It's a big lie. I would never rent my car out to anyone! Your insurance company won't insure your car! Also who trust a self driving car!

  • @danielstapler4315
    @danielstapler4315 Месяц назад

    Ok. First the video talks about Tesla takes most.
    Then the video talks about why China invited Tesla and their FSD into China.
    I can see the conflict between these two views, can you?

  • @free-qe6wx
    @free-qe6wx Месяц назад +5

    Well, unless Elon lays off the entire Robotaxi team next week.

    • @SupaChinido
      @SupaChinido Месяц назад +2

      Its fine, they will be replaced by Optimuses

    • @lostandconfused26
      @lostandconfused26 Месяц назад

      labor will be replaced by robots

    • @michaelnurse9089
      @michaelnurse9089 Месяц назад

      Haha. He is busy hiring over 4000 people for the Robotaxi project.

    • @DavidRoyar-ct9tn
      @DavidRoyar-ct9tn Месяц назад

      If some need to go, let them go

    • @free-qe6wx
      @free-qe6wx Месяц назад

      @@SupaChinido Elon will be laying off the Robots next month.

  • @NicholasNerios
    @NicholasNerios Месяц назад

    Skeptic conspiracy theory:
    Talking to uber lyft fulltime drivers, they hadn't really tried to raise minimum wage, many were fine as they were. Now in the twin cities MN there's a push to raise taxi driver wages, and this has caused these services to plan on leaving the region. So if it's not the taxi drivers urging wage increase who is?
    Possibly the proponents push for higher taxi wages, are the investors of these AI robotaxi services? Who's to gain the most from current taxi services to withdraw from a region when costs are greater then profit?
    A competitor that wants to lock in a profit margin while squeezing out the human labor competition. Because no one invested in a company that only breaks even. Ethics and morals and client savings are just advertisement for greedy investors.
    It does seem very sketchy that at the same time taxi wages are being debated, an autonomous competitor would be ready to deploy with in the same time frame as services withdraw from a region. I am concerned there's some dark dealings our politicians are dabbling in for personal profits.

  • @TeslaEVolution
    @TeslaEVolution Месяц назад

    Tesla bot - seems to not be factored in?

  • @keepleft
    @keepleft Месяц назад

    If you can get $100k per year per car, why bother selling the cars at all? Just keep them all, shutdown the car sales business, and become a taxi company.

  • @danlowe8684
    @danlowe8684 Месяц назад

    LOL!!

  • @dynomotivedyno9194
    @dynomotivedyno9194 Месяц назад +3

    Supreme Court just ruled that Musk MUST get attorney approval to tweet about Tesla!!! Lets go SEC! Cook this crook! Enough of his lies.

  • @laoyingyang9761
    @laoyingyang9761 Месяц назад

    惊喜Tesla 將推出Cyber系列大气霸道車款KO全球车企:配套1:星鏈接所有Wi-Fi,配套2:车体太陽儲能全部用电;配套3:FSD腦神經意念控制;配套4:BOT陪伴隨心所欲……

  • @Steven-996
    @Steven-996 Месяц назад +1

    So ARK expects Tesla to be worth $2k a share in a year?

  • @torjusekkje6264
    @torjusekkje6264 Месяц назад

    Too much analysis sometimes All in all, Regulations are a non issue

  • @pcmountaindog
    @pcmountaindog Месяц назад

    And what prevents government and unions from featherbedding and passing laws which require driver in the who may or may not do anything but add cost? Musk and the public are not facing the fact that Musk is smaller than the government. His only option will be do what has been done for ever all over the world and that is to pay off politicians. I suspect he would walk away before dealing with that.

  • @davidsosnak2968
    @davidsosnak2968 Месяц назад

    She doesnt believe too😅

  • @ankhenaten2
    @ankhenaten2 Месяц назад

    *Tesla going to 0$ elon musk will take the fsd to xai because tesla shareholders won't give elon 50 billion* 😂

  • @mvrz6
    @mvrz6 Месяц назад +1

    Invite Tasha instead of the same 3 random people and only friends you got

    • @BrighterwithHerbert
      @BrighterwithHerbert  Месяц назад +2

      Ive interviewed Tasha and many other institutional analysts already. These videos are in the library. I interview new guests regularly including CEOs on a weekly basis.