Why Iran is Weaker Than It Looks
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- Get Nebula using my link for 40% off an annual subscription: go.nebula.tv/TLDRNewsGlobal
At first glance, Iran looks pretty powerful. But looking under the surface, Iran isn't as strong as it appears, with poor economy prospects, less-than-popular regime, and a succession crisis looming. In this video, we take a look at whether Iran, who doesn't really want a war, will get a war anyway, why it's weaker than it seems, and how this explains the pivot in their foreign policy.
🎞 TikTok: / tldrnews
💡 Got a Topic Suggestion? - forms.gle/mahEFmsW1yGTNEYXA
Support TLDR on Patreon: / tldrnews
Donate by PayPal: tldrnews.co.uk/funding
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
1 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
2 - www.foxnews.com/world/bidens-...
3 - www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...
4 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
5 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy...
6 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy...
7 - www.iaea.org/sites/default/fi...
8 - www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...
9 - edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/mi...
10 - fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR...
11 - www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
12 - www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
13 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
14 - www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-m...
15 - www.iranintl.com/en/202312091166
16 - financialtribune.com/articles...
17 - www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
18 - www.iranintl.com/en/202310247754
19 - www.iranintl.com/en/202310247754
20 - finance.yahoo.com/news/irans-...
21 - www.iranintl.com/en/202310247754
22 - www.iranintl.com/en/202310247754
23 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
24 - / percentage_of_populati...
25 - iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013...
26 - iranfocus.com/economy/34551-h...
27 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
00:00 - Introduction
04:23 - Iran's Three Crises
04:39 - Iran's Economic Crisis
09:17 - Iran's Political Crisis
11:03 - Iran's Succession Crisis
12:30 - What Happens Next?
13:09 - Sponsored Content
Hello - some comments have suggested this video is more biased than our usual content. We see where you're coming from, and we just thought we'd let you know we'll be discussing this video - and whether or not it abides with our stated principle of neutrality - on Thursday over on The Editorial (here: www.youtube.com/@TLDRpodcasts), our fortnightly podcast where we discuss controversies/errors and talk about our editorial decisions.
We also messed up with the ethnic maps from 9:45: on the first map (9:45-9:55), red indicates a LOWER concentration of ethnic Persians, and in the second graph (9:55-10:20) we mislabel Tehran and the graph doesn't make the point intended by the narrator. While the basic point is still correct - ethnic Persians, who generally live in Central Iran, are generally better off than ethnic minorities on the peripheries
(perhaps a better illustration would be this graph from 2019: www.researchgate.net/figure/Life-expectancy-at-birth-years-among-provinces-of-Iran-in-male-and-female-individuals_fig1_359777064) - this is nonetheless an unacceptably sloppy error on our part, and we can only apologise.
We still hope you enjoyed the video, and thanks for watching!
PS no we're not sponsored by the CIA or MI6
If you remove the sanctions from Iran, you will let Iran's economy grow because of the many resources it has. It will become significantly stronger and increase its influence in the Middle East. It will give up nuclear weapons in order to lift the sanctions and grow its economy. It is forbidden to remove the sanctions from Iran and support and even arm the protesters and opponents of the Ayatollah regime.
lol
If you remove the sanctions from Iran, you will let Iran's economy grow because of the many resources it has. It will become significantly stronger and increase its influence in the Middle East. It will give up nuclear weapons in order to lift the sanctions and grow its economy. It is forbidden to remove the sanctions from Iran and support and even arm the protesters and opponents of the Ayatollah regime.
It's as even handed as a one hand clap .
The editorial content is great also.
Some points from an Iranian: Yes, Iran's regime is in a dire economic situation, and it's also deeply unpopular and the country is turning into a powder keg of rage against the regime, both due to economic decline and imposing Sharia law on a mostly liberal society. But the so-called ethnic divide is not a serious issue and is definitely not a threat to the regime. The regime may even benefit from it. Because patriotism is very big in Iran and any threat to the integrity of the country can be used by the regime to regain public support. There is strong evidence suggesting that the regime has long been sowing ethic divide inside the country in the hope of using it as a tool to rally people around itself in times of crisis. It's very naive to think that this regime can be harmed in a serious way by using fringe ethnic groups and issues!
This is exactly a new narrative regime created after 2022 to divide and conquer. It’s interesting now that it’s picked up by western media.
Liberal public??? Pakistanis are pretty conservative and they are ruled by people like Shah aswell
Liberal??? Iranians are no liberal at all. They are either ultra leat communists, ultra right nationalist monarchists or ultra right fundementalist theologists. Never seen Iranian centrist in my entire life
I don’t think Iran could be considered a “deeply liberal” society
Yes, perhaps the people tend to be a bit more progressive than Saudi Arabians, and they are tired of the regime’s abuses, but I don’t think that makes the Iranian populace fundamentally liberal or secular
They are most secular society in the Middle East after Turkey and Israel. Before 1979 Iran was very liberal so yes they are.
Ethnic maps were honestly confusing
Red = Poor
Yeah but both Balochistan and Tehran are red... yet others are yellow and orange. It looks like a mistake
Yeah, that is the point. Ethnic and geographic make-up of a country is often a mess in real life.
@@orboakin8074 the point in the video was that poverty was found where there were low concentrations of ethnic Persians but the two maps shown as evidence did not actually prove this. In fact it seemed the two factors were almost completely unrelated
One mistake I saw on the slide “Ethnic Persians In Iran” was that the province that is in the south-east called “Sistan and Baluchistan” is inhabited mainly by ethnic Balochis, who have their own culture, history and language distinct from Persian. According to the chart, it shouldn’t have been red then. Definitely confusing!
The Iranian people are generally very nice and welcoming people . The regime led by the Ayatollah tho is a shitshow
I agree, the Turks and the Iranians are the only muslim minorities in the EU who really feel themselves more free and have a need to Integrate. Thats my experience from a East European after meeting professionally many of them who live in Austria and Germany.
so what indians, afghans russians are nice too
@radiowolf3016 you can't judge the whole nation by professional emigrants into Western countries. They are the best and smartest people with the desire to integrate
@@radiowolf3016 I totally agree, this is what I noticed with fellow workers from Iran. When we talk to them, it is as if there were no cultural barriers, as if they were native-born compatriots.
I am from Israel and I always wonder how the Iranian ppl are I knew there’s a regime there but I always wanted interactions with them
Isn't the obvious thing that Iran just doesn't want an open conflict until it is a nuclear power?
I am not so sure. Pakistan is a nuclear power and they are not stupid enough to start another war with India, especially given their socioeconomic, political and regional troubles.
Why did it attack Pakistan?
Kinda doubt Iran would use nuclear weapons if it were to achieve them anytime soon. It would be foolish of them to target Israel considering its alleged nuclear arsenal and defense systems. Luckily, Iran is mostly talk no action.
@@noam2774 Should the rest of the world take the chance of waiting and finding out?
@@nonmagicmike723 No. I’m all for sanctions and intervention. No irresponsible, radical regime should have weapons of mass destruction.
Like most tyranical Regimes , Iranian military is built to protect the regime from their own people and not foreign armies. It is one thing shooting unarmed civilians and completes other facing professional soldiers.
i could say that the idf is fitting that description more than iran.
this is a clear propaganda content.
@@rodolfodoceu clearly have no idea what propaganda is Isreal has been in 6 wars since it’s exsitnece and has won all it beat 4 Arabs nations in 4 day not only did they win but they Annexed land I pitty u keep supporting Iran while their people are leaving for the west your clearly a fool america I no hood but we currently live in the most peaceful era in human history under the American global order the fact u can even have a say that this is propaganda is because of western human rights laws now I dare u go Iran
@@rodolfodoce No it's not, you probably don't know what is the different between revolutionary guard and a regular army.
@@rodolfodoce the saving grace of the IDF compared to revolutionary guard is they don't torture and rape their own children in concentration camps . Hell even the Nazis didn't debase themselves to that .
As an Iranian this is completely true unfortunately.
Iran's "succession crisis" isn't what you depicted. Iran isn't a monarchy, so it's the "Council of Experts" that is tasked with choosing a a successor to the current Supreme Leader. The problem is that there really isn't any worthy contender to the position, unlike 34 years ago when there was a whole host of them. So, the next "Supreme Leader" is sure to ignite a crisis (highly uncertain in magnitude) within the regime itself.
What about IRGC as They seem more powerful than clerics
@@tiglishnobody8750 The clerical rule in Iran is what justifies the whole existence of the IRGC.
Console of experts and pretty much every console in the country are puppet in hand of Khamenei
They should call a friend of ours, Phill Leotardo. He also did 20 years in the can.
I think what they mean is that there is no agreement on the next leader and whenever there is no agreement all the factions with power fight amongst themselves for the position. And infighting (especially amongst the elites) always makes a group/system vulnerable.
Remember : An unpopular regime does not mean that the citizens will tolerate any foreign intervention , a fact which largely goes ignored by many Western governments.
Even if the Islamic government falls, which it won't ,the most likely outcome will be the Islamic counsel will become a house of lords of some sort because what will you do with the IRGC, without an Islamic republic they have no legitimacy and they are very well armed and trained.
Many People from Crassus to Saddam Hussein have tended to underestimate Iran and it never ends well.
remember the invasion of Iraq, Saddam had put the Iraqis in a worse position yet the Iraqis only celebrated the Americans for 5 minutes and then it all went to hell.
The Iranian government has repeatedly told the people that the US and Israel are the enemies ,for now most Iranians are indifferent to it but what do you think happens each time the US and Israel take out an Iranian or they see the crisis in Gaza? The more this happen the more they associate the economic crisis with western sanctions and not the government, Logic always dictates that whenever a country is undergoing an economic crisis the citizens will be against the govt but there are exceptions to this rule eg Weimar Germany. It is not enough to just look at a failing economy and deduce that the govt is in existential danger of collapse.
I'm an Iranian and I'm shaking my head as I'm reading your comment. Firstly, you're not 100% correct that Iranians do not want western intervention. Right now if Israel assassinates Khamenei and destroy IRCG people will celebrate it. We get happy everytime we hear that an IR general is killed by Israel! Why you may ask? Because the Iranians are 100% sure that the Islamic Republic (the government) is responsible for the economic crisis! This is an extremely important factor that wasn't mentioned in this video. Sanctions are only excuses for our government to be even more corrupt, because they know they can blame EVERYTHING on sanctions! Evertime that America decreases the sanctions and gives money to our government, they use that money only for three things:
1-supporting their proxies like Houthis or Hezbollah
2-Paying their armed forces to opress the people
3-filling the pockets of corrupt government officials
In reality, the US is supporting the Ayatollahs regime! Recently Joe Biden unfreezed 15.9 billion dollars of IR's money from banks in South Korea!
If you don't want to overthrow the IR, that's cool, don't do it. Because it's not your duty to fight for OUR freedom. But at least you can force your government to not give money to IR terrorists.
saddam fought you for 8 years. you couldn't win against him. what are you talking about?
The Weimar republic did put the fault on the government, hence there were more anti-democratic representatives elected from both right and left than pro-democratic from the 2nd half of the 20s and the untimely death of Stresemann to its end. When the Nazis took power our country was at the brink of civil war with red army and brownshirts battling openly in the streets. The question is whom do the victors from the struggle put the blame for the situation they emerged victorious out of on. In case of Germany it was easy as the entire system was forced upon the country by foreign hostile powers who did everything possible to harden resentments in the meantime (e.g. occupation of the Rheinland).
In Iran I see therefore threr outcomes: the establishment wins and blames the west, denouncing the opposition as western spies.
The opposition wins and makes a complete U-turn on the theocracy, denouncing religion and doing an Atatürk style reform.
Or China steppes into the power vacuum and creates an anti western anti Islam puppet state using both resentments pushed by the internal forces to present themselves as the saviours and a new way forward
Meh, no foreign force is going to intervene. Iran is a shitshow that nobody wants to get involved in, and Iranians, sadly, are pretty much on their own.
If the US ever tries to invade, not only will Iran prove a tough nut to crack, but it'll likely receive plenty of support from both Russia and China, both of whom will be gleeful about the move. Also any invasion WILL be illegal, for what it's worth, as it'll never receive UNSC approval. Such a move will also hurt US foreign policy even more than the Gaza war already is.
It’s important to never underestimate Iran. Their regime may be unpopular, but if their bigger cities are attacked by another country, the people will band together. History has shown that when the existence of people such as Iranians and Armenians is threatened, they can overcome any obstacles in their way. There’s a reason why they were able to defend against Rome during ancient times.
Omg, are you seriously comparing Rome to modern times🤣 a lot has changed in a thousand years. Countries now are way more powerful than even Rome at the height of their power.
@@kieragardyou saw Rome at the end and took that as the full point. His point is there people have a willingness to fight and defend the homeland at all cost.
I mean... No one is even considering attacking Iran.
It would be costly with little benefit. Why would they?
The risk Iran is facing is not an outer one.
But an inner turmoil/collapse.
Which would have no rally around the flag effect.
And the comparison with ancient Rome is kinda stupid... First the people & culture from back then have little to nothing to do with the current one.
Plus the different climate & geography (and by that different fighting styles) plus logistics plus away from the Mediterranean sea had more to do with it.
If, a comparison with Constantinople would be more fitting. But even then stupid, bc, well.. completely different time, people, culture, alliances etc
@@fuzlonz at the same time a lot of countries haven't brought down their full might yet. The US and UK haven't really waged an all out war since ww2.
@@kieragard That's a silly comparison in itself. They'll never be able to wage an 'all out war', if your understanding of that is what we saw in WW2. That was WW2, only to be matched maybe if we ever see another such conflict. They've waged what war they can get away with - and lost to far weaker foes than Iran. Never mind Iran with powerful backers..
I would love to see y’all do a rundown of the different political parties within Iran. Including banned parties.
Two main ideas, Royalist and reformers. Royalist can be sorted based on the target group of representations, like bazaar or people who are close to paramilitaries like basij (although all are). Reformers are more unified. The thing is nobody in Iran votes anymore because 3 reformer government that could do nothing. Royalist and people who work for the government (which is the biggest job provider of the country directly and indirectly) go and vote.
@@medimedimadmad IIRC, all political candidates and all political policies of the incumbent government have to be vetted and approved by the clerics, so while the current governance structure exists, there's very limited capability for reform. But, of course, the problem with revolution is it creates the risk of what emerges as a result being even worse...
there are no political party in sense that you think its a totaliteran regime with 2 type of elite its two one is military junta party and other is clerics party whitch both of them have plundered iran for 4 decades.
There are no parties. There used to be a reformist movement within the regime but it disintegrated about 10 years ago. Right now there are three main factions and allegiances amongst Iranians: regime supporters, monarchists and liberal republicans.
Why and what has that got to with it. America has two major political parties but it doesn’t make any difference who is in power, you still have 70 million people without healthcare, 80 million with no money, mass shootings every day etc , etc.
Never underestimate nobody
Religion and government dont do well together.
Especially when you add the label "The chosen people" and consider ALL others insignificant .
It sounds like you are referring to Israel, but that country isn't a theocracy.@@SourVodka
funny enough there was a very well-respected Ayatollah(ayatollah meaning, sign of god, in arabic, which is basically idolizing humans which goes against their own religion)called Ayatollah Montazeri who said "Islam and Government should be separated if Islam is to prevail" and he died shortly after 'mysteriously'
and as an Iranian I find it pathetic when I see Christian Nationalists wanting to do something that will just weaken them(ending the separation of church and state which is literally against the constitution), one of the biggest reasons the U.S. is a Superpower is the laws, constitution and what have you that the founding fathers put together that keeps the most powerful man in the country from becoming a Dictator, and they understood Religion and Government should be completely separated despite most of them being Christian
@@idaniluz652 That country was established based on a religious text saying that God promised them that land and thus they can displace its inhabitants and take over.
It works perfectly well for a dictatorship. You don't support the leader? You'll go to hell.
Nice to see TLDR a little more assertive in their takes - especially on something as nuanced and complex as the Islamic Republic. That said, l think its unwise to underestimate the IRGC - an entity so effective at navigating leadership challenges and curating such a thorough and imbedded system to sustain it. Keep in mind, just how isolated they are in their immediate region, yet command such influence through very pioneering strategies.
For one, despite being under 3000+ forms of sanctions, Iran has still been able to uphold a functioning economy, and have largely approached nuclear-enrichment levels since. There are some suggestions they already have the capability - however, there is a difference between enriching the uranium vs building a nuclear warhead capable to delivering it. Its what some call a 'nuclear Iran' vs a 'near-nuclear Iran'. The Iranians wouldnt be able to do this weren't they quite resourceful. The fact it gets so under the US's skins shows just how much punching above its weight it does.
Its also worth keeping in mind the IRCG is really leveraging its non-state actor networks to extent no one else is - they're more innovative than Russia in this way. They're even developing strong influence in Latin America via Hezbollah in the narcotics trade. Equally, the more that warfare becomes asymmetrical, the more it depends on drones, cyber, and other methods that are conventional kinetic, that benefits Iran who's a core supplier to others in Africa, even Russia etc.
That said, Iran's worst fears are a region who's largely normalised relations with Israel, as it removes a pole of disruption, and changes the balance of power, really putting them at odds and largely encircled by few friendly neighbours. Thats why their grand strategy has be driven by destabilisation, much like that of Russia, and if interested, people can learn more about here: ruclips.net/video/DXhINDRHMsg/видео.htmlsi=MLplgBxedzdBOwpC
TLDR [and MSM] constantly fail to understand the middle east geopolitics and culture.
huh? They're quite literally making Sh!t up
Thank you for the great information!
great analysis
The last thing Tldr needs to be is more assertive. YT is filled with plenty of channels already offering their 'assertive' takes on world events. Generally speaking there's positive correlation between how assertive they are and how biased they are. Cos the most common personality that exudes confidence are those that are arrogant, which they spin as a positive by calling it 'bold'.
Ethnic issues in Iran are exaggerated. Much of these ethnic minority areas are mixed but still identify as being Iranian unlike other countries in the Middle East that were carved into existence by Sykes-Picot.
Also Persians aren’t necessarily treated better, Shias are. The only thing pro “Persian” about the regime is the language, otherwise it doesn’t like Persian identity/history as it interferes with Shia Islamic ideology.
Persian history and idendity are not necessarily Pre Islamic ones. As if Persians and overall Iranians did not have any history after 7th century. Like seriously, some ultra nationalist persians neglect and completely ignore almost 1300 years of Iran's history from fall of Sassanis in 651 and rise of Pahlavis in 1925. How the hell can someone imagine Iranian history without Safavis, Ghaznavis, Samanids, Buyids, Afshars and etc
Balochistan lol
Amazingly comprehensive content, really loved it. I don’t know how to show how much I’ve appreciated it. Thanks mate.
It's nonsense. This is all literal garbage.
thank you for the video
Never under estimate the enemy. Whatever was said in the video, Iran is still capable of producing UAV, ballistic missile, and managed to pissed of Pakistan with a retaliate airstrike, and Pakistan do own nukes.
Pakistan is a joke 🤦🏻♂️ they have nukes and have problems feeding their people..... "Priorities"
Pakistan nukes are for india only
It was Pakistan who retaliated with drone strikes, loitering munition and A-100 rockets. Although Pakistan said that it had struck militants, it was already clear that the strikes were about sending a message to Pakistan's arch rivals India and Afghanistan (and the Iranian regime itself).
The map at 9:51 looks incorrect. It should be that the red provinces have a higher concentration of other ethnicities, as Persians predominantly reside in the lighter areas of the map?...
Other than that it's a pretty good video.
Those 2 maps are totally wrong and almost random
Yes that’s I thought
So sad to see such a historical country in a situation like this
Isn't every country 'historical'? Persia is the history not clerics
Every country is historic...
@@jmjedi923yeah but persia is one of the OG's
@@joso7228everything went downhill when Iran was conquered by islam
@@panzerofthelake506 so did Iraq I’m Iraqi Arab ex-muslim atheist now
Is it just me, or does it sound like he's talking slower than usual. Like the speed is at like 0.80 or something.
Yes I thought so as well, just slightly of pase
@@martijnkoning3354 ended up watching the video at 1.25x speed, which kinda fixed it, but it was still slightly too fast, but not so fast I couldn't understand anything. just a smidge off. felt better than the default speed for sure.
Got to stretch out the videos for the ads.
Sounds like someone told him to slow down or something
It may be deliberate. Speaking slowly is a common technique for public speakers because it makes the speech accessible to a larger audience.
Very effective information.
2:56 the voting was held not for establishing a 2-state solution, but rather for a humanitarian cease fire.
Not only that the introduction was misleading - the October 7th attack was an attrocity but other than the loss of life hardly affected Israel but give it a chance to attack Palestine
Israel was not crippled by the attack their fine yes the attack has killed 1,200 civilians with many others injuries the Israeli government is a-ok
They did actually vote for something that included the 2-state solution and later denied that part. Forcing the 2-state solution in the middle of this war, actually benefits the enemies of Israel.
True. Iran is not a state goes with two state solution. For 45 years the Iranian mullahs want to liberate Jerusalem, and that fiction continues.
Amazing analysis by TLDR, Love the more confident take on this complex subject. the great emphasis on the meaning and consequences but also limiting the challenges that Iran faces to the major 3 does wonders in keeping the video simple to understand while going in depth in all the relevant subjects. keep up the good work :)
Iran is so easy to invade for gamers and youtubers, just a bit difficult for Armies.
What a relief! Thank you
Hey, love your videos. Great as always.
Just one thing I want to point out, importing Oil as an exporting country is not due to overuse.
Its usually done if the Oil imported is cheaper than the oil exported. i.e. Russian oil.
The UAE for example also import oil while still exporting their own.
Its very important to understand that
Well, yeah. For once it helps having a land border with the Saudis.
Can you clarify those maps about ethnicity and poverty? It seemed Tehran was impoverished and I was totally confused about persian vs arab makeup of central vs border regions.
Yeah the map coloring and narating is all over the place there. Even the persians map is totally wrong and almost reversed, persians live in the middle 2/3 of the country.
the maps are wrong
at least the first
the title of it is ethnic fars distribution but it just looks like a population density map...
whereas the second one is supposed to be about poverty but again the coloring and legend (no existent) are bad... Like, "red indicates a higher poverty rate"? Comeon guys.
It’s all irrelevant. No Iranian ever compartmentalizes our society based on Ethinic background. Pushing these divisive narratives is usually an IR government propaganda in order to scare the society of a potential balkenization. As you see even in the ethnic maps shared you can clearly see many Persian central provinces are poorer than Azeri provinces.
These maps are fake! We iranians do not have any ethnic crisis between ourselves!
Why do the behind the desk scenes looks like they're filmed on a webcam that you've left the protective plastic on?
“Iran is a paper tiger with steel claws” -Saud Al-Faisal (Former Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia)
@@Raybod_369 more like a kitty shaped 'doormat'
@rootedpen2 your mother's tongue is also my doormat
@@K55365 you wouldn't be resorting to this uncivilized crudeness if it didn't strike a nerve bcz its true lolol
@@rootedpen2 Send my regards to your mother.
@@K55365 BHAHAHA lil bro is still mad. yo mama jokes just scream low IQ but in this case it's not surprising.
We are overestimating ourselves....
Exactly. NATO couldn't even properly eliminate the Taliban, imagine against an actual military like the one Iran has.
No the west isn’t. Who said the West want a war with Iran? 😂.
@@AncientTruthSeekerAgain who said NATO want a war with Iran? Neither does Iran hence all these proxy manoeuvres.
Not to be picky over the length of the video; but almost a third of the run time is the intro and another 2 mins are the ad at the end. That's roughly half the video that is either setting up the main section or an advert. I understand the intro is important and normally isn't this long, but it does seem that the intro could have been a little shorter. Love the work you guys do, keep it up! 👍
Great job👏👏
Wonderful analysis❤
I highly recommend this Video!
Whether it’s powerful or not, I hope we never have to find out in direct conflict
Any country can look stronger than it is if it's willing to use their people as fuel. Most countries are limited by their need to at least somewhat care about their people.
And any country can be exposed as significantly weaker than it appears to be. Let's see the US in Afghanistan, Russia in Ukraine and China when it comes to corruption as recent examples.
The thing about Iran is that a really large slice of the population inside its borders don't support the Islamic Republic. The regime could be toppled, but I really hope the US doesn't get that fool idea in their head that it is a good idea.
Not necessarily.
@@santharhtooreal life examples of this "not necessarily"?
@MagicNash89 Not always though. Some countries can look stronger without being at the expense of their countrymen welfare than the ones that use their people as fuel as you said. Just my opinion though.
Fun fact: Not only is Benjamin the first serving Prime Minister of Israel to face criminal charges (corruption)... Netanyahu isn't even their first chosen name.. After moving from Poland and changing the family name to "gift of god", helping form Zionism into a political movement, the Mileikowsky newspaper publishing family leaders took to politics.
Also something to consider is the 80+ million in real estate the prime minister has amassed in the last 20 years.
Quite the choice of names.. history matters.
4:10 "before we start" - damn, you haven even started yet 1 third into video? :D
The worst thing about subsidies is that sooner or later people find excuses to abuse the subsidies and if the state wants to control that it has to spend more which means it returns to the problem 1.
There is no shortage of stories about how in the USSR the bread subsidy was used to feed livestock cheaply or recently in Argentina how neighboring countries crossed to buy oil at very cheap prices
At 2:58 the commentator says Iran has voted yes for a two-state solution. But the voting was about protection of civilians and upholding legal and humaniatarian obligations 😂
Khuzestan's population is predominantly Shia Muslim, but there are small Christian, Jewish, Sunni and Mandean minorities. Half of Khuzestan's population is Lur.
Yes, Arabized Lurs who supported Saddam Hussein.
@@anandm4748 read more about history and iranian cultural sites in this province and also Iraq - Iran
It shows that most people don't understand Iran's strategy 😊😊😊😊
Can you guys make a video about every upcoming election?
10% of $75 is $7.5; does iran sell for $10 less a barrel of oil?
Jack rocking the new look
Is that his hair? lol.
@@Based_Stuhlinger the short answer is..... nope.
@@michaelotoole1807Is it a wig?
@@Based_Stuhlinger I believe it is. look at his videos from about a year ago. a rather bad wig at that. seems like a decent guy thou.
ty make more iran content
Those 2 maps are totally wrong and even contradicting your script.
Iran have two mines not yet exploded. One of them is West Azerbaijan and others are sistan Balochistan
Don’t forget the Kurds and Afghanistan has border issues with Iran.
+Arabs of Ahwaz
Don't forget Hawaii, Guam, independence.
those bombs would explode the other way
And Khuzestan which is a majority arab province
I’m genuinely not accusing you guys of bias like many people, but I would like to see something similar analyzing global American geopolitical strength. I do think it’s decreased a lot in recent years/decades, which is probably a good thing overall although the ways it has occurred have not necesaarily all been great 😅
Can you elaborate? How has it decreased? Seems like the US is just as powerful as its been.
@@wiseandstrong3386 Trump's time in office completely alienated Europeans and forced them to start developing a European-centric defense plan, so the geopolitical strength the US previously enjoyed as it relates to its power in Europe significantly diminished.
Whether America returns to some form of Isolationism or not. American strength will remain unrivalled.
Europe, meanwhile is an ageing continent unable to defend its own interests and borders.
@@wiseandstrong3386 It's still probably the most powerful state on Earth, don't get me wrong, though that's primarily due to trying to stop the expansion/ambitions of the other superpowers of Iran, Russia, and China (all warranted; I'd also call India a superpower but they're relatively very chill outside their borders).
US soft and hard power abroad has been significantly scaled back; withdrawal from the Middle East has been steadily happening for about 2 decades now, and with the Afghanistan pullout is almost effectively finished; US is content with only providing support to regional allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia, who will by-and-large decide how things go of their own accord, not by how America instructs them. Similarly in Central/South America for quite a while now the CIA has stopped its sociopathic, machiavellian meddling as far as I'm aware. I'm sure there's still behind-the-scenes involvement but I really can't imagine US operatives staging a coup to weaken a country or otherwise make its government friendly with USA.
This has had unfortunate consequences, as we've seen with Russia and China becoming more emboldened, though at least US has kept a lot of military presence/attention in the region around it.
But I'll say again, I think most of this power reduction is good, and overwhelming comes because the America public finds so much of it unsavory (think of the huge attitude shift toward foreign wars during Vietnam). Just now it (and former colonial European states) have to figure out how to strike a balance between drawing back their meddling or intervention in foreign affairs, while still maintaining a semblance of world order and preventing other powers with less moral qualms from just filling the power vaccuum.
@@wiseandstrong3386one has to be really a dumb or a low level NAFO TROLL to not see how the world seethe US oc Ehy as a humiliated & dying empire. How's fleeing at nite shaping from Taliban After 20 years of going there to destroy Taliban? Does that gives you a clue now? 😂
I can't decide if it has aged like fine wine or fine milk.
Iran in meanwhile: “hold my mint tea…”
He didn’t even mention the Assembly of Experts role in selecting the next leader.
it is a farce!
Honestly no one even in Iran thinks much of them. They seem really absent from the day to day life
People don't usually mention electors when talking about elected monarchies in the past so not much difference.
@@Ariana_y004 What do you know? Your username is Atila lmao, you're not Iranian
Thats bullshyt bro the assembly of dogshyt is just to say we aint no monarchy but we iranians know whats up thats just to fool ppl and the world .all of them r controlled by Supreme leader and his band
Who could have imagined that Socialist Islamism would not work out for the people?
If you are not Iranian, you’re the first foreigner to acknowledge it 😂
Never would have imagined
Where did you get the map at 9:50 ? it seems to be so wrong, for example you marked Turk provinces as extremely Persian which is not correct but if I’m getting this right, this means you had no idea what you were talking about.
Excellent and informative work!
Even under a authoritarian regime, we live in a world that people have ability to access news so fast through social media. Let's say theose news may be totally false or correct, authoritarian regimes can endure as long as they can hide their flaws. Besides all these economic and political succession problems this video mentions, with social media, ordinary citizens see flaws of these elites every single day and then elites become something cannot preserve their sacredness but again they try to hold it by using power. That's what makes the distances between authoritarian elites and ordinary citizens longer. In this age, I don't think this gap can be filled or reversed easily.
Yeah we all said the same with Afghanistan and Iraq
What makes you think Iran wont be another monumental flop for the allies against Muja hi deen fighters.
Exactly this is PURE jingoism.
Not only that,. Even if the government in Iran gets overthrown, the power vacuum will appear and will be filled by the Taliban. Taliban can cross into Iran.
Afghanistan launched a terrorist attack, got invaded in response, and then fought an insurgency. Not only a defensive battle but an insurgency, that makes America's role even harder. Add to this that America won at first, until their bombing of civilians brought the Taliban back to life, at which point they gave up.
Don't act as if those countries won. They just thrashed around so much that America gave up.
what makes you think that there'd ever be a ground offensive on iranian grounds?
@@zUJ7EjVDthat’s why they won. You can’t have forever wars the US gave up is a sign of failure. The talaban is stronger than ever. It’s is the biggest L in US history
The foe is never as strong as we fear or as weak as we hope
The foe is israel
@@skp8748 ❤️🇵🇸❤️
@@skp8748Go away Ahmed.
@@DaniTheHero is that meant to be islamophobic?
@@skp8748 it meant to be an obvious assumption on your ideology when you hold that opinion.
Only Islamists say something like that.
An antisemite goes for the “phobic” argument. Rich.
It's strange that many channels are making videos about Iran's weakness recently
Hamas is not a Iranian proxy, unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthies in Yemen. Hamas have withdrawn their offices from Syria which is an Iranian client state after the revolution because they sided with Syrian rebels which are anti Iranian
Syria is not client state, they are ally
So why does Hamas accept $120M per year in weapons funding from Iran. Iran expects something in return.
Hamas is open your eyes it's iran vs Israel there is no Palestine in this conflict
@@jeremymanson1781 And why did Israel allow funding to Hamas as they admit it in 2019?
@@tiglishnobody8750 Bibi had a doctrine of giving the Ḥamas leaders things that they could lose so they'd be fearful of attacking. Utter failure of a policy
Few points/questions:
1. Iran has a problem with water - this even caused some minor conflicts with Afghanistan, no? Moreover , I remember reading some news report that Teheran is sinking due to draught and excessive water pumping, how is this being handled?
2. Iran and specifically Teheran has many drug users, is it true?
3. With all the mentioned above and in the video, Iran has a strong military (bombing in Pakistan?!) and an armed conflict will unite the people and distract them from other issues
Iran has also a demographic crisis. They have been below the replacement level for a long time and probably in a year or two Iran's population will start declining
It doesn’t really matter at this point. It’s an everyone problem, not an Iranian problem. Europe is not off the hook, immigrants are not really saving it, they instead leads to more dependents
Iran's population for 2024 is approximately 90 million and expected to reach 100 million by 2050, the rates are lower than they used to be, but still Iran is the most populous state in whole middle east
That's not a problem at all. Iran can rely on importing Shia immigrants from Pakistan or India, which make up a combined total of over a hundred million people to make up for the demographic losses in Iran. Plenty would be willing to immigrate as well. Unless Iran states it's a problem, then it's not.
@@LoveAndPeace2004 Majority of that increase will be old people not young workers
Importing Shia lmao@@son193
Those moves by Iran are absolutely fascinating. I keep a good eye on such events and I totally missed those.
"the regime is less popular since 1979" That is absolutely right
for all governments since Corona and hyperinflation
Iran has had to import refined petroleum for years due to a lack of internal refining capacity, partly due to sanctions.
Most because IRGC smuggles the subsadized petrol to neighbouring countries... which why they subsadize it in the first place. Also because khomeini promised free everything and now they are stuck with a saw in their rear end that they cant escape from
Art of war
1. Appear weak to your enemies.
WAIT! Something feels a bit off at 3:03 ...
The title of the voting results of the UN general assembly was "Protecting civilian and upholding Legal and Humanitarian Obligation". And I don't think it is directly related to the two-states solution like TLDR was saying. So, if Iran was agreeing to this vote, I don't think it is agreeing with the two-states solution.
Unless, of course, there was an indirect relation, or perhaps some untold background information that goes beyond the title of the voting results. I'm not trying to accuse anyone here, just genuinely curious.
Could anyone please clarify?
Why do all the options of people for position of power look like the same picture? That’s crazy
Wasn’t the whole point of the Iran nuclear deal to stop them getting a nuclear weapon?
yeah, but trump pulled America out of that deal in 2018 and went back to basic sanctions. Leaving the deal essentially pointless
It’s ok for other countries to have nuclear weapons but not Iran?
That was the stated goal. In reality though, it made Iran far more dangerous to the point that Saudi Arabia turned to Israel for help. That may seem normal(ish) now, but it was crazy back in 2015.
@@JahannUlDo you really trust a radical islamist theocracy with weapons of mass destruction? Unless you want World War 3, then no, they shouldn’t possess nuclear weapons.
The Obama deal was terribly negotiated there was no mention of returning hostages no mention of their proxy armies standing down and even the nuclear inspectors had to give like a 45-day notice before they even inspected a site giving the Iranians enough time to hide what they were working on. I don't think it's slowed down their nuclear ambitions one bit and it gave them the money back to pursue them. Unfortunately Iran needs to change leadership before they're forced to. They can't keep attacking all their neighbors and they need to get either control of their proxy armies or help us fight against them if they can't control them. They've been funding them for the last 20 years so they are responsible for them if they've been giving them the money and the weapons and the money for the weapons that they're using for these attacks then they basically are doing the tax even though they don't seem to have any control over these proxy groups they've never should have formed them in the first place. Now we have to clean up their mess or they're really behind it and they're lying to everyone either way they funded these groups they armed these groups So if they're against these groups now then they need to help us take these groups out. It's their responsibility since they funded them and push them towards Israel over and over they're costing the entire world right now with their lack of responsibility.
Iran’s leader is 85? Almost old enough to run for president in the US. 😆
Those arrows make the situation look more dangerous
Your editors still need to do colour grading on you A roll footage.
ill give this vid a 3 out of 10.
I live in Tehran and everyone is getting poor here. I have no idea how the people can actually afford to live as they do. and it's a miracle that the outer region cities even survive. I don't pity them however because the poorer regions are actually some of the biggest supporters of the corrupt government. one other issue I would suggest you discuss is the fact that anyone with a bit of brain, is leaving the country. Iranian government is now firing university professors and replacing them with akhunds.
11:17
bizarre how the silhouette looks
like 0…a
"Iran doesn't want a war because it can't afford it", yeah neither can the US..
The US is still far more credit worthy than Iran.
Fun fact - Iran's most popular car, the Saipa Saba (=Kia Pride, 1988 Ford Festiva/Mazda 121) is now an older design than the Trabant 601 was in 1989-90.
This comment section is full of nameless “experts” today…
😂😂😂😂
For what it's worth I find it respectable that Iran doesn't waste budget on cheesy bots, unlike its Russian and Chinese 'friends'
And all these three factors have a very complicated history and no layman can truly understand their root and significance
11:30 are all of those different people?
yes
Hamas is NOT Iran's proxy🤦
Yes, Hamas get support from them, but they have totally different values and agendas.
true
Your studio videos need more contrast/better lighting, it looks out of place next to the other media in the video.
Neat
As an Iranian I can say, this is actually a very good representation of the current situation in Iran. Just one little thing, the current leader's name should sound like kha-meh-neh-ee and the old one is kho-may-nee. Obviously you are not expected to say every foreign name accurately. Thanks for great videos.
As an Israeli, I can tell you that we wish the Iranian people the best( personally, I have never heard any bad comment from jews who emigrated from your country about their neighbors), and we wish the worst for your regime, who has turned Syria into a slaughter house, ruined Lebanon and backed repeatedly the most bloodthirsty, chaos monger groups all over the middle east.
@@paratatruc can you remind me where ISIS and Al-qaeda got their weapons in syria? oh right it was from your terrorist chosen people state as well as other western countries
@@paratatrucIran supported Israel? I never knew that!
@@Naderium yes, enormously. There is still famously the Iranian embassy in Tel Aviv, which is the spot where the Iranian embassy was supposed to be, and it's been taken over for years by the Iranian Jewish community in Israel who use it as an exhibition and center for Persian culture and community. And the Iranian people, in general, are some of the least antisemitic by far- even now the regime, despite running show trials of Iranian Jews every few years, does have some protections for the remaining Iranian Jewish community. Despite persecution they are still more protected and populous than a lot of the Middle East
Can you explain china's political system?
It’s a monarchy, but without a clear successor to the current monarch.
@@ianshaver8954 source: Taiwan frogs
12:37 Dark Brandon has them covered there.
The UN vote that you refer to was not about the 2 state solution though
When I was young I heard Iran is making nuclear weapons , now I’m old with 3 kids Iran has still now announced it , yet there won’t be a day without a news of Iranian nuclear crisis .
You can blame warmongers and their media proxies for that
@@kazeftd Like the warmongers in Iran who have said multiple times they would start a nuclear war...
@@bigkingspeakerdwestemperor5068 Yes, also them
Actually you can blame Israel for the fact they consistently fail to build nuclear weapons. Your analysis that they've failed doesn't mean that the measures taken were pointless: it means that the measures worked
Developing nuclear weapons while under sanctions, is probably very difficult
lol so iran condemning oct 7 is being seen as weak? I think it shows they have morals, that even an attack on an enemy done in a horrible way is not ok.... how are you seeing this as weak...
westerners will hallucinate whatever they one.
Because it's against their ideology... if morals overcome their ideology it shows the system might begin to crack
Whoa dude, did TLDR just drag your ass out of bed to do this video?
Iran's challenges remain the same since 1979, nothing has really changed, but the country has certainly became much more self- reliant, politically independent, and despite its challenges, Iran has shown remarkable resilience and endurance.
I was watching a weathy Iranian say that most Iranians with money invest in the stock market there knowing it's all an artificial bull market, but because of the rate of inflation and sanctions, it's the only way that you can save money that increases in value roughly at the rate of inflation.
They said that Iran's entire stock market has been propped up by this for the last 5 years. Just an artificial savings bank.
Gold and Foreign exchange is also really popular, Iranians possess Billions of Dollars and Euros that they just hold and will never get rid of til the mullahs are around
Half true. People own gold which the country push for aswell
@@medimedimadmad I sort of assumed that Iranians could not buy Western currency due to sanctions.
I was only relaying the info I heard from an interview on German DW news a few months ago.
I do feel bad for Iranians, Israel has nukes since the 90s, so Iran can't possibly use them so I don't really understand why the West punishes the country so much for trying to catch up.
Pakistan literally said that even if the population starved for a few years, they needed to have nukes to counter India. Yet they were never sanctioned. Neither was South Africa.
I'm not a fan of Iran's iron grip on its citizens, but sanctions punish the general population more than the ruling class.
Iranians use gold. If they can't afford gold, they work abroad like Turkey and exchange lira into euros.
Although it has some inaccuracies, This is the most accurate summary of what’s going on in Iran in English speaking channels.
Great video and largely accurate for most parts. However the two maps showing the Persian ethnicity distribution within iran and the poverty levels are absolutely wrong. In reality the ethnic minorities are more concentrated in the outer regions while in the first map it’s the other way around. The second map also cannot be accurate.
1:53 The gentle people of Bikini Bottom will no longer suffer under the noxious greed of Mr. Krabs... oh wait that's the wrong speech.
Ethnic conflict in Iran is totally horseshit. I'm Iranian half-Turk half-Kurd and never faced any discrimination. But it's great if enemies underestimate us.
Thanks for mentioning this . I am Persian Iranian and this minority ethnic thing is always being promoted by western propaganda .
We are all Iranians and brothers and sisters .
as a persian in iran me myself have faced discrimination you are lying there is no way to be half azeri and half kurd and not face any discrimination maybe you haven't walk outside your city
@@rightfeelIyou faced discrimination based on what?
@@LoveAndPeace2004 what do you mean based on what? you mean why do people discriminate?
Ok rabbi!@@rightfeelI
Thanks for the update.I suspected much.They only had drones and small time proxies going for it.
😂 you're a fool then
@@skp8748says the one using the "😂" emoji, you DO realise that the "😂" emoji is used by people to convey that they want to be pinned down and get done in hard, right?
Hezbollah and Houthis and Hamas? Small proxies?
@@hpi6080 They sure are buddy boy.Sorry to break it to you.They only seem to know how to take hostages and hold trading vessels hostage and play the victim card.
@@hpi6080 They sure are buddy.They are even pathetic since they can only hold trade routes hostage and take hostages and than play victim after Oct.7
for some context as to just exactly how fucked the iranian economy is, 1 US dollar is worth 41 THOUSAND Rial. that's ABSURD.
Why is your camera so badly set up? Great videos but the white balance or something is super odd
So forcing them into a war may help toppling their regime
Or may strengthen it. Rally round the flag exists.
That's what Saddam thought..
Coin toss
Something that I should add about the ethnic struggle, the ones benefiting from it aren't just Persians but also the ethnic Azaris and the ppl's on Iran's north. Because these regions are Shia and are where the government gets the few manpower that it still has
Azeris dont have any major difference with other ethnicities. I don't know why some people are saying that. The loyalists and separatists are a very tiny group in azerbaijan.
12:30 so the Fourth option is revolution?