Slight correction: The phrase "Fill water" is a mistranslation. "Filled water" is a common Chinese phrase used to denote that a high quality item has been replaced with a lower quality item (Such as an expensive broth being replaced with tap water). Despite what Bloomberg states, the Chinese missiles were not literally "Filled with Water", but rather, the expensive rocket fuel used in the missiles were replaced with subpar fuel, with officials pocketing the difference. This means that Chinese missiles would still be able to fire & work as normal, but would not have enough range to go further than the Chinese coast. It also means that Chinese missiles might self-implode if they were ever launched.
If they were in fact liquid rockets they should not be fueled at all. Rockets with liquid fueled motors never are stored with the fuel as their tanks are not meant for long term storage of such volatile and or / cold substances like rocket fuel or lox.
@@alert.272unless its hypergolic fuel which we use in ours specifically because of longer term storage in silos, they have to be able to launch at a moments notice and it could take 20 minutes or more to transfer cryogenic fuel in the rocket
China is nothing compared to what is happening in Russia or even most of the Eastern Europe. The reason Bloomberg took notice has more to do with the recent tensions between The West and China, rather than China internal issues alone.
As a person of Chinese descent, this isn’t surprising at all. Comical levels of corruption has been a plague two centuries running. You had admirals breaking down warship guns for scrap metal, an empress looting the army funds for palace renovations, and the utter disarray of the Warlord era. Yeah, not really that surprised here.
There were some who were not corrupt like San Yatsen, Yan Xishan and others but much of the leadership (KMT and especially Communist) have been very corrupt.
I recall reading a story from the Chinese navy in the early days ( pre Russo-Japanese war) where in one of the few 'modern' warships they had, the officers had sold off the gunpowder and filled the magazines with trade goods. They were using a big expensive modern cruiser as a tramp freighter up and down the coast of china. But what about the admiral? Surely he would have put a stop to it? It was his flagship...
But according to most knuckle dragging idiots, a big army is scawy. Even though military history has proven that unit cohesion, strict discipline, and adept training has always been the better way. Would you rather wield a thousand nails or one spear? Its really that simple.
Another important lesson not touched upon is the reason for the missing fuel. If the troops are so insufficiently provided for in something as high profile as the rocket forces, how bad is it for guys in the field? I imagine supply issues are rampant throughout the Chinese military but aren’t really talked about.
I remember hearing similar stories from somewhere in the US military many years ago. I can't remember the details now but it was something like the fuel they were given for cooking their food gave it a smell or gave off smelly smoke or something & so they chose to use mission fuel for cooking so as to avoid that, cause they liked it better. Pretty sure in that case it was just requiring lots of additional fuel be shipped in & it came out when their supply section FINALLY realised there was a problem in how much fuel was being used, but at taht point the practice had been going on for many years. I don't think they have any cooking stuff nowadays, I think it's all built in heating, probably in part as the fallout from that. Anyway, just saying, I wouldn't assume it's lack of supplies based on that. Plenty of western militaries have also had people speak to the press about soldiers being told to "say bang" when pretend shooting at each other, because of a lack of bullet supplies to save costs (that's what soldiers report anyway, it could also be a safety thing in the settings where it's occuring)
The big problem isn't soldiers taking some jet fuel for cooking. The problem is that the contractors who supplied some of the rocket fuel provided a cheaper quality of fuel, and pocketed the difference. The story about cooking with jet fuel is unrelated to this scandal, and came from a defector, who told the story over a decade ago, about events that happened even before that. IDKY the news people are conflating the two stories.
*You really have to* take those stories with a grain of salt. The most basic of militarily-useful solid propellants burn at over 3000°C, at least double the melting point of any stainless steel, aluminium, brass, or cast iron cooking vessel.
@@mehere8038 truly spoken like someone who's never been in the military. The reason we say "bang" during training is not because of a lack of ammunition or even an effort to save ammunition. When you are in the early phases of learning squad tactics you don't want to fill everyone's magazines with live ammo for obvious reasons. So we say "bang". Once units reach a certain level of training, and at scheduled training evolutions live ammo is used, but only once said unit has been well trained (yes, it's that simple). The US military has always and always will use the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid). No different than Olympic athletes drawing success from the continuous practice of fundamentals. When fundamentals are mastered they become muscle memory and that's when you have an effective solution to a problem. This is main reason for the success and readiness of US forces vs other nations that don't have the funding to do the training needed. It costs a lot of moolah. As far as using jet or rocket fuel for cooking in the US military... Not sure where you heard this but nothing could be further from the truth. The average grunt, mechanic, supplyman, etc doesn't have access to the areas where those items are stored unless they specifically work in those areas. Even then very strict documentation is maintained to account for known quantities inbound and outbound. Let's just stick to the facts instead of conjecture and rumor please.
As a Taiwanese, I would say that it's never completely off the table for China invading Taiwan because that's their internal rhetoric for many years and someone will be crazy enough to launch one, even if it is doomed from the beginning. So I would never agree with closer economic ties with China, because it opens door for them to conquer us economically, if they can't militarily take Taiwan then it's even more important that they don't take over economically, let them stay at an arms length and implode themselves over their Taiwan policy.
Japan is not allowed to operate military elements outside its borders. Hasn’t been for 90 years. They’re still in timeout for Pearl Harbor, that’s why you don’t hear about anything but their home guard. Now would we do anything but slap their wrist for hitting china? No. But technically it would be a worldwide issue.
@@Adonnus100Trumps not even an option anymore lmao. Every American leader will fight for democracy. The senate and congress hold way more power than the president lol.
The one thing that makes me believe China's military is probably not that scary is how much they focus on choreography. They believe that acting like robots is a sign of efficiency, but in war things can get pretty unpredictable. Corruption, inflexibility and inexperience will severely limit the PLA in a real conflict, no matter how many aliexpress F35s they build.
@@dpelpal Keep in mind that the Russian military had combat experience and are used to large scale military operations, botch as they may be. The last time China fought a war was with Vietnam and ended with mixed results. If they are eyeing Taiwan, it's not gonna end well for them.
I worked on and off in China over the last 20 years. Corruption and the required lavish dinners were mandatory across the board in the early 2000's. By 2017 they were gone for most business as people were afraid of being charged with corruption. My colleagues mentioned 'except in the military '. When we were discussing it. Never gave it much thought.
People don't realise how deep the corruption goes. It's not just a bunch of generals skimming off the top. It's down to the individual unit level and even individual soldiers, scrapping, selling, etc, their equipment.
@@王震-d2j Over 70% of Chinese fossil fuels travel through US controlled waters and China exists at the end of the longest energy supply chain on the planet. It also cannot feed it's own population without the US. China's military has no real war experience, especially not a modern war. It's corruption within it's bureaucracy rivals the USSR and it's demography is unsustainable. Also, logistics win wars, not "mach 25" missiles.
One correction: The people hand picked for the positions (who were subsequently sacked) weren't picked because they were seen as the "best and brightest" that the country had to offer. They were party members who had been given the appointments due to perceived loyalty to the people who made the appointment. The Chinese government is not a meritocracy.
Ours (the US) isn’t a meritocracy any longer either. We are short 45,000 front line troops. The Generals are studying “white rage”. Message received. Traditional whites die at twice their enrollment. They volunteer for the front line action.
Before we get too confident that there won't be a war over Taiwan is growing less and less likely, let's remember that not all war decisions are made using game theory like risk/reward assessments. Sometimes a leader has a political faction critical to them holding power barking in their ear, and even if that war is ruinous in the long term, the leader has to do it anyway because the PERSONAL consequences would be disastrous and more immediate if they don't. I think it's ALWAYS been the case that invading Taiwan would be an epically stupid move. Ukraine, China's economic downturn, the risk of long term economic sanctions and damage, and the fact that they're unlikely to be successful (according to nonclassified wargames) all tell the tale - China should NOT invade Taiwan. But with alot of US advanced programs scheduled to bear fruit in the early 2030s, and their buildup, Winnie the Pooh may have hawks in his party who think it's 'now or never', and want to roll the dice. Perhaps hawks who have bought into their own propaganda, or believe the west is too weak/corrupt to stand up for Taiwan. Just because it's a stupid decision, doesn't mean it's a decision that can't be made. That's why sticking with Ukraine and building up deterrence in the short term is so important. It needs to be obvious even to those hawks that the west will act, and they will lose.
Exactly. Basically any minimally sane and competent US administration would have made it an insanity. But the weakness is so glaring it has to be tempting. Honestly it seem like the west and its rival are at a race to the bottom, and we are lucky they are falling somewhat ahead.
On top of what you said, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that China might invade Taiwan to overcompensate for this news getting out. Even it's not rational, they might invade because they want to restore their global reputation.
Idk how people don't see this. And this whole video is taking a Chinese leak at face value. If you were right about to invade wouldent it be very good strategy to make your enemy's think your army is weak, while clamping down on corruption makes those at home more likley to fall in line and giving you a excuse to hide key officials before a offensive starts.
It's also comforting that, for all the problems the United States might have, our democracy has produced the greatest military in the history of mankind.
To clarify: "filled with water" is a Chinese idiom meaning "cheaped out" or "cut corners" usually implying using substandard workmanship or parts. The missiles are not literally filled with water.
Yes, and the fact that the content in this video does not speak to the meaning phrase in local terms speaks volumes about the reliability of anything it has to say.
After this report, it seems the US is actually quite over prepared for war. US war doctrine preps the military in lockstep with the propoganda its adversaries pump out. If China claims to make a 6th gen fighter, the US is already working on a 7th gen
Over estimation is worse. Look at how the west viewed russia, stronk. But we are now seeing that russia was nowhere near what they hyped themselves up to be lol.
@@uraniumcranium2613 true, they got a few nukes and thought they were hot shit, but at least they are smart enough, or have been smart enough to not use them, other than those they are using old tech in a modern war, they sent soldiers to modern combat holding mosins, that should tell you all you need to know about how "stronk" they are.
Reminds me of the Battle of the Yalu River (1894) when the Chinese fleet sortied to face the Japanese, only to find that most of the heavy shells were filled with cement and broken porcelain, while the gunpowder charges were from condemned batches well past their use-by date. Glad to see modern China keeping this proud military tradition alive.
Glad to see how ignorant ppl try to act smart on something it knows shit about... get some proper education before you make fun of others... the first China- Japan war was never called "the Battle of Yalu River" in any circumstances...
@@Rebellpanzer the ambush where China had a 4-1 manpower advantage and succeeded in nothing more than letting the US retreat while taking 3x the casualties.
The one thing I want to point out is this: if you looked at things rationally, and from a perspective of abilities to wage and maintain war, World War 1 should never have begun. But strong men in positions of absolute power do not make rational decisions; they make decisions based on the idea that they are unstoppable and above repercussions.
WW1 wasn't started because they really wanted to wage war (remember the leaders of Germany and the UK were close family aunt/nephew). They were forced by mutual alliances/treaties following an sudden event nobody predicted (the assasination).
@@johnsamu Except you're omitting that Austria, having just had their only pro-peace high official get assassinated, had decided they were going to invade and annex Serbia no matter what, and Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted to prove he was big and bad and thus gave Austria a blank check to war all they wanted. The treaties only came into effect because Austria and Germany decided they wanted a war. (Also, Germany didn't believe Britain would involve itself over something as unimportant as Belgian neutrality, and even if it did the war would be over before it could raise significant forces.)
@@redneckgaijin The pre WW1 sentiment seems to have been that war was unavoidable because the Great powers of those days Germany, Great Britain, Russia, France all were trying to have colonies in Africa and Asia as well as extend influence in Europe. That's why there was initially a lot of enthousiasm in the participating countries during the starting stage of the war. ALL parties overestimated their own capabilities (nationalism at work here) and thought it would be "a walk in the park".
This is true, but Xi Just received a clear message that he cannot trust any of his forces to perform as expected. That doesn't mean he wouldn't still do it, but it means the level of stupidity or recklessness required is now much higher.
I worked in China up until 2015 and the scale of corruption on all levels, even down to the people making the products, was unfathomable. The more important you were, the more exposed you are to corrupt personal gain, and the more likely you are to profit. This is a huge reason why Chinese products sold worldwide are just basically crap, and their military equipment is no different.
From what I have learned from people who spend some parts of their career in China it seems to be a fundamental part of Chinese culture. All one has to do is read about the "36 Strategems" by Tan Daoji to see where this will inevitably result in problems. Which is also why I am sceptical about any attempt of a solution. You can't change a countries culture over night.
so it's just like us eu africa and russia. said with other words they are just as corrupt as all other leaders and countries. how many lawsuits have been filed against your former and current president and their family in the last 5 years alone
My older brother has a few friends who work for “the government” with jobs that they’re not allowed to say exactly what they do. I do recall a discussion that I had with one of them around a year ago, and we were talking about China’s military. I brought up how much it’s improved over the years, and how I was concerned about going to war against it over Taiwan. He couldn’t get into specifics, but he calmly assured me that the US has nothing to worry about. And I haven’t. It was the most reassuring words he could have said. And after seeing how poorly Russia’s military is performing in Ukraine, I think the western countries can feel secure for quite a few decades to come.
Ukraine has been a fantastic opportunity for the western defense industry in general. The USA is sending Ukraine old stocks that are close to being decommissioned/disposed of anyway. In return we're getting all kinds of very useful combat information. War games are great and all but nothing beats actual combat experience to find the problems with your weapon systems and doctrine. Also we get a bit of an economic stimulus as the government orders up replacements for the old gear.
The big problem with pyramid regimes like China, Russia, NK etc is they are the most dangerous when their top dogs feel threatened. While Shi (sp?) do, now that he can’t hide his military being fit only for fancy parades? Will he lash out anyway and hope. Much as Putin did and continues to do?
I’ve heard many more say the opposite. Rightfully so, unless an extreme quantity of the PLA’s forces are straight up non-functional, which is optimistic in the extreme, they represent a very very very serious threat by quantity and in some very important areas quality.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 Who are the many that told you the opposite because it sounds more like your personal opinion? The problem for China to use its quantitative advantage is to get those numbers into Taiwan, which would be very difficult. There are very few places in Taiwan where China can use its amphibious forces to secure beachheads, and the air will be contested to make it extremely difficult for paratroopers to land. You’ve seen the huge losses that Russia has taken offensively, and even a small river has made advances nearly impossible to penetrate. China has the whole Taiwan Strait to get across.
Perun touched on the Bloomberg report on his channel. He did a very good job explaining why some of the things reported should be taken with a pinch of salt.
It's very unlikely that the missiles were actually filled with water. The term "Guan Shui" (translated to "water filling") is a colloquialism and means that someone has replaced valuable or important components with things of significantly lower quality and/or cost.
I wouldn't put it past them honestly. I've seen a lot of Soviet equipment being salvaged for parts that went unnoticed for decades. So long as an official inspecting it doesn't look too hard, or can be easily bribed to look the other way, they could get away with it.
the report said “filled with water instead of fuel”. if they were using the idiom that’d be like someone saying “that’s a whole other can of worms instead of soup”.
If a hypergolic fuel tank is filled with water, then that fuel tank can never be used again rendering the rocket unusable forever. Mixing hypergolic fuel with any moisture will lead to catastrophic failure.
@@Zman44444 The fuel itself is also corrosive. I don't know if they absolutely couldn't refuel them, but they are going to be really sure no moisture is left in the tanks or fuel is screwed.
Update to this comment, this comment applies to NON hypogolic fuel tanks. Some aircraft have a system in place to remove water condensation from fuel tanks. This process is known as "fuel tank sumping" or "draining." Pilots may perform this procedure before a flight to ensure that any accumulated water, which can contaminate the fuel, is removed. Water in the fuel can lead to engine problems and affect the overall performance of the aircraft. Pilots typically drain a small amount of fuel from the lowest point in the fuel system and check for the presence of water. If water is detected, it is crucial to address the issue before the flight to maintain the safety and reliability of the aircraft.
in Russia we have a common saying:"strictness of laws is negated by the optionality of their enforcement" I think it applies to Chinese corruption quite well, as death penalty for corruption in China is not unheard of, yet corruption persists nonetheless
@@TeRRm0s про такой уровень коррупции в китае. Это же типичное англосаксонское расчеловечивание, на типичном детсадовском уровне. У них это часть национальной культуры, но русскоязычным зачем поддакивать?
The 'elephant in the room' in all this is the development of India. While Russia's situation may be deteriorating, India is certainly motivated to keep sharpening its sword. In many respects India has the same problem as China - all kinds of issues plague the Indian military. Unlike China, India has a belligerent neighbor (Pakistan) that periodically tests its defenses. As India's economy improves, so does it's capacity to field aircraft, missiles, ships, and submarines. If China has to focus its military on any one border, it leaves the other ones exposed, and both the China/India border and China/Russia border are enormous.
Nobody is looking into that angle India will burst out on the scene soon Actually in democratic India The free press in India makes it very tough for corruption on the Chinese scale to be seen in India
Yeah, well, India could have counted on US assistance in such a case, until they started assassinating US and Canadian citizens. Now they get to worry about that on their own.
Just because invading Taiwan would be irrational and doomed to fail doesn't mean it wouldn't or couldn't happen. In WWII, Franz Halder, Hitler's chief of logistics for Operation Barbarossa, warned Hitler that his staff was telling him (Halder) there simply weren't enough resources & railways to guarantee operational success, yet the invasion went forward anyway. There are other historical examples too numerous to mention. Yes, invading Taiwan would be a cataclysmically bad idea. That doesn't preclude its reality.
I think it does. Xi Jinping would care about the success of an invasion, since history (especially within the Chinese public) would link it to his leadership. If he launches it and it fails, he'll be a laughingstock. So unless the CCP is willing to launch what might be one of its biggest censorship campaigns since Tiananmen, I don't think they're going to risk it. Of course they could just be idiots and do it regardless but I would like to hope they at least have some foresight, fantastical as that notion may seem.
I wouldn't call Operation Barbarossa outright irrational. Germans saw Soviet failures during Winter War with Finland, so despite knowing the limitations they counted on quick sweep of Soviet forces. This would allow them to use vast Soviet railway system and oil fields on Caucasus to keep the gears turning. Risky but not irrational. Better example would be current Russo-Ukrainian war, where the initial invading force of 200k russians was insufficient for any meaningful operations and doomed to fail from the get go.
Consider the lessons learned from the Soviets; purges are never about corruption. The purged individuals might very well have been corrupt, but the true motivator behind purges is always to remove political opponents or make someone a scapegoat. I also find it hard to discount the theory that, much like the PRCs problem of overbuilding, investments in the armed forces are simply a way to keep the economy looking better than it really is.
" investments in the armed forces are simply a way to keep the economy looking better than it really is." See the US for another great example of this.
I think if there is one thing history has taught us is that when an autocratic state decides on something it will do it - whether it makes any strategic sense or not. I can point to Russia and Ukraine, Hitler and Halder (as Troyriser mentioned), Gallipoli and several of the weirder troop movements in Medieval British history. China may find itself in a position where it makes sense to attack Taiwan, purely because the party needs some kind of enemy to bolster itself against.
That's the problem with their system. Eventually people wil turn on their communist dictatorship, so in order to stay in favor with the public they will need to find a "common enemy" aka: USA
However you can also , and should, point at the numerous examples when china couldve used a diversionary war to make people rally around the flag but didnt. Great leap forward? No diversionary war, cultural revolution? Still nothing. How about 1989 student protests? Still they didint initiate a diersionary war, 2015 stock market crash in china? Still nothing. So why you assume they will do such a thing when it never happened in the past.
I’m a retired foreign service officer and military historian and this site consistently delivers a brilliant analysis that is both valuable to a professional in the field and accessible to a casual reader. Well done!
This site is biased as fuck and has no clue what it’s talking about when it comes to china. All these western sources parrot the same information about china. Yet they have never been to china or have any contacts inside china. If u were to go to china and actually experience what it is like and how efficient things are run nowadays. Then it would be quite obvious that this bald know it all man in the video has no clue what he is talking about.
As someone that listens to actual high level ex military discus’s geopolitics everyday, I found this to likely be utter nonsense. I’m not well versed enough in Chinas military equipment but the little blurbs he gave on Russia were complete nonsense so that makes me doubt the validity of this individual as a source. There are propaganda lines on Russia and China and they are usually pretty far from the truth but the US and UK need to keep the peoples opinions inline and in support of their aggressions.
Funny, to me this story stinks of "disinformation". If they were planning to start WW3 this year, this is exactly the kind of thing they would put out there.
It's important to remember that autocratic regimes are corrupt by design. It's what allows leaders to 'legitimately' remove rivals under corruption charges; the charges are almost always true it's just that the only people 'caught' are done so for other reasons. So a removal for corruption doesn't mean a less corrupt person will take their place.
Sweet summer child, POLITICS is corrupt by design. Autocratic or not changes nothing about the nature of power. Democracies just usually do better because its much harder for individuals to get too much power. But greed unites the western politicians in their abuse of taxes just the same. And they don't mind starting wars if it helps their career. Start talking about Support of X war in say the middle east, and suddenly your campaign funds magically are boosted.
Just what I thought, they're "discovering" corruption among officials considered to be less than loyal. If a bunch of people decide to oust Xi, they'll suddenly "discover" he's corrupt, too.
As a civil engineer w/3+ decades of experience w/a gov't transportation agency in the northeast US, I have been following the Chinese infrastructure expansion fairly closely for quite some time. Recently, the vast & pervasive amount of shoddy work due to corruption & incompetence has really become apparent due to the overwhelming obvious physical evidence of systematic failures all over China of all sorts of infrastructure, from hi speed rail to highways to utilities to bridges, as this infrastructure starts to age beyond a mere decade or so (there are gobs of you tube video's about this as well as online articles, many from engineering publications, going into far more detail). Imagine what China will look like as their infrastructure approaches the typical 50 year lifespan we always designed to in the US (often 100 years for major facilities). So it should come as no shocking surprise whatsoever that the same endemic corruption & incompetence would permeate all aspects of Chinese society including finance & business (plenty of evidence of that as well recently) & of course the military. There might have been some hesitation to think the military was as bad as other aspects of Chinese society, considering the amount of saber rattling Chinese leadership does, & the consequences of failure, but apparently not. It would be a Grave mistake to underestimate Chinese ability to correct these problems in less than a decade or so. The West (& it's Asian allies) should not let up their diligence in modernizing their militaries & forging strong alliances & mutual support treaties. Likewise, the west should continue to divest itself from dependence on Chinese manufacturing, especially for critical industries such as tech, vehicles, aerospace, etc. This is no time to get lulled into complacency. So, one place China could look to expand it's ambitions is certainly eastern Russia. That's one country they Know they can beat! It would seem the rewards would be far greater than Taiwan (at least if decimated in a war).
The only problem is the capitalist addiction to cheap labor. If the wall street cronies would stop getting their dicks hard for Chinese labor maybe corporate america would follow especially seeing some of the more recent risks to their businesses i.e the zero covid disaster and said saber rattling from China. Chinese leaders want their cake and eat it too but it's hard for a communist to fully understand pure, unadulterated capitalism, because capitalism is overwhelmingly allergic to anything that harms the bottom line and they just don't understand that and I think they never will.
Xi Jinping has been trying to fight corruption since 2012, purging officals left and right. The latest news just show that corruption is inherent to the chinese political system and can't be reduced without extremely far reaching changes to the government, the kind of which Xi has already failed to implement in the past decade since he has been in power. There is little reason to believe anything will change in the next decade. Nonetheless, Chinas willingness to attack Taiwan should not be underestimated. Especially if Xi gets desperate and comes to the conclusion that a war might solve some of these problems.
I have been saying for months that President Biden should send a back door message to Xi pointing out to him that America would have no dog in any fight between China and Russia, should China ever decide to take back Mongolia.
I read that Bloomberg News article the day it was published (I am a subscriber). I'm glad you picked it up and now publicize its implications. I drew exactly the same conclusions.
They might, but I would like to ask you a question. Do you think Xi Xinping is willing to risk the same kind of humiliation Putin is currently experiencing? Because the real test is never whether it could work. It's always about whether it could be perceived as working. If China's military is so underprepared and undisciplined, could Taiwan even be invaded with any success? It isn't enough to win, they must win capably in such a manner as to make the world believe they are a threat to others as well.
@@valueradar3362 Ukraine has been decimated by Russia and when Russia decides they can sweep the entire country they will do so. There is a bigger game being played that we are not given the information to understand. Always remember this fact.
Decades ago Deng suspected the same thing and used the invasion of Vietnam as a test for the PLA. Found out the hard way as entire battalions and armored brigades got lost even before they showed up to the theater of operation.
The thing that the West needs to remember when it comes to a potential conflict with countries like Russia or China is they may be corrupt but they also place a much lower value on their soldiers' lives. In the west if 100 soldiers die, there's a massive press frenzy over how it could have happened. Russia/China just throw bodies at the problem. It's not the best solution, but it can solve problems a surprising amount of the time. The west has technological superiority at the moment, but its population base is fickle. Russia and China are two nations that historically don't start questioning their governments on a big enough scale to matter until everyone's starving to death.
An important thing to understand about xi's anti-corruption campaign is that it was never about weeding out corruption but instead about targeting his political opponents.
I have had American friends and family who have reached out to me for years, while I've lived in Asia, asking about China's rising military might. I have told/reassured them for a long time that lack of experience, uneven force development and incompetence meant that "China would get its ass kicked." This not only confirms, but reinforces my position. China would be better off focusing on policies that support and grow its newly emerged middle class than playing out military dreams and ambitions.
Thank you very much, I am an American, with a big family, so are in the military, and I am comforted by your words. I was worried of droves of highly skilled Chinese soldiers who had no respect for human life attacking Japan, Korean, Taiwan, and so on
Chinese can only fight wars with their own people... thats about it. These people dont even have the discipline to flush the toilet after they shit, and thats no exaggeration, ive seen it firsthand.
So dumb. So naive. You know nothing. China fought the US in Korea and in many ways crushed the US. To this day the US is still so ashamed of Korea it barely gets talked about, it's called the forgotten war for a reason. Wake up! War with China will be even worse this time around, don't take it lightly
Did combat experience stop France from getting steamrolled by the Germans in 3 weeks? Did combat experienced stop the IJN from getting demolished at midway by a far less experienced American fleet? Did combat experience help the seasoned Iraqis stop the fresh faced American led coalition? Such a tired take. People are so desperate to huff copium and believe that China isn't a threat that they most likely use this shit to their favor. Its funny because if you can read the Chinese white papers they actually downplay their capabilities compared to actual field performance, they're different from Russians because they don't feel the need to flex on armchair generals on RUclips and reddit.
When China was a poor country in the 1950’s they held the UN and USA forces to a stalemate in the Korean War. The Americans also didn’t invade North Vietnam during the Vietnam War because they were afraid of China and a million PLA soldiers entering the war. As far as “China would get its ass kicked” maybe that is why they are increasing their nuclear arsenal to about 1,500 nukes and developing other weapons like drones. They are not standing still and may soon reach a MAD situation with the USA. Remember when the Soviet Union had 50,000 nukes during the Cold War. Sure the Americans could destroy the Soviet Union during a war but the USA would also get destroyed as well.
"...we don't know, but Xi certainly does." *Actually* ... that's part of the problem with endemic corruption, it undermines confidence that the _leadership_ knows the extent of the problem or can rapidly survey the difficulties that need to be overcome. Afterall, if the reporting and inspection systems were intact, there wouldn't have developed this degree of disfunction.
Xi probably doesnt even know the whole extent either. There are two things going against china in reguards to information. The east asian concept of face and lying to look good for higher that is endemic to socialist/communist states.
Very true. The pikachu face Putin must had had when he found out his vaunted military was less than advertised due to the corruption from the ministry on down.
Good point. Hindsight and all that aside- i really wonder if Putin knew just how bad things were in the Russian military when he was debating whether or not to invade Ukraine. If there is one thing heads of state REALLY hate, it's being embarrassed
The fact that something as central to the PLA's invasion plan as missiles are falling to graft shows some insight into the mindset of the PLA itself. You don't graft if you think you're about to go to war, you graft when you think "this is never getting used, I'll never get caught." If anyone knows that they're not ready, it's them.
I like your interpretation, but it's also possible that they believe there won't be a war during their careers not because of lack of capability, but because of lack of motivation.
The military might know that, but perhaps Xi doesn't. That's the problem with dictatorships, they are surrounded by yes men, afraid to tell the leader the truth. This is exactly why Putin decided to actually attack Ukraine
Indeed. I would take such reports with a massive mountain of salt. It's in their best interest to lie about military strength. I can easily see a scenario where they build defective equipment on purpose just to leak the info later.
@@lightfm90China’s military Bible? He’s THE military Bible worldwide. If you’re any soldier or general or any military administrator you absolutely need to study Sun Tzu, he’s the best military masterminds out there and it’s amazing everything he said 2000 years ago is still very much relevant today.
China's military force play call of duty to simulate war. The US has seen war and our generals are battle tested and battle proven. Yeah man China can act weak or whatever, but they are weak so......
This cements my theory that countries who constantly show their "might" with great military parades on a regular basis are only strong until they have to use force instead of demonstrating it.
Cements your bias then. Not that you are wrong in this particular stance, but to apply this type of reasoning to solve problems is a recipe to failure.
@@Euduchaus For example france holds military parades and india too india does it even more in fact yet both have very capable and competent militaries.
military parades most of the time are about a especific historical military event in that country, some politician usings hem to make their army look strong its more circumstantial than anything and isnt related to the existence of them, flawed logicc
Most country's would struggle to invade any country, nato with America at the top have the capabilities and have proved it, as for the rest unless it's a neighbour or internal it's probably not possible, and before people say Taiwan is a neighbour it's quite a formidable opponent.
Korean war, (Vietnam)the "soldiers" poor Chinese farmers some barefoot, sent in midwinter attacks, with threats of being machine gunned, into wave attacks! ~100,000 died of frostbite! (look to the past, to see the future?)😮 How many treated, same way during COVID-19? 🤔🇹🇼💙🇺🇦
Hell no they are all at amazon where I work. Republicans started trade with China, ie, Nixon admin and ever since they have sent jobs out of America to benefit the wealthy owners or top 1 percent
I think we should clarify that the communist China is known as the People’s Republic of China and the nationalist China, residing on the island of Taiwan is officially called the Republic of China. There are two Chinese states.
Taiwan was "invaded" by the ROC when the ROC retreated out of the mainland, huhuhuh. Earlier, the PRC and the ROC both had considered the possibility of Taiwan, former colony of Imperial Japan, to become an independent country like Singapore and Vietnam. Anyway, moral of the story: Chiang Kai Shek sucks.
I've long been of the opinion that China is far less of a military threat than we have been lead to believe. I've felt that China really doesn't have much confidence in its military, which is why it is so skittish about using it. A authoritarian country like China loves to make an appearance of power, but actually using it scares them because if things go badly it could totally undermine the government. China hasn't fought a war in some fifty years and they lost that one, so there is virtually no one in their huge army with any real combat experience, most of the army is conscripts who are farmers and other rural living peoples. China loves their drills and huge formations, but those are not going to save them on the battlefield where things can change at a moments notice. Now we add the rampant corruption (which I'm not surprised by) and we can see China is really not ready to wage a war of any kind. That's not necessarily to say they couldn't be a tough opponent, but just that China isn't going out of its way to start a war they are not confident about winning.
Up until recently I would have disagreed with you. Some of hte defence white papers would have shown that China and the US had so many missiles that the opening two days of the war would have crippled both countries. Given their missiles aren't working... That changes things drastically.
This has been the general attitude in the 7th fleet of the US NAVY for decades. First hand experience has shown many that the Chinese are basically all talk. It was, however, always in the back of our minds that they may actually back up some or all of the saber rattling. The fact that they overplay much of their military power is no indication of their resolve, and as we have seen in the past, overwhelming force is not necessarily a guarantee of victory.
Its not just talk, the drones in Ukraine are chinese. These stories are released as Bidens foreign policy positions are in shambles, disadvantaged in every theater, its obvious cover for the regime.
They are also all about face. Which is what worries me. When they provoke an incident (as they regularly do with freedom of nav patrols in the Natuna/West Phillipine Sea (the sea to the south of China) all it takes is one pilot to take the non-professional option and not back down to cause an incident that may escalate.
Yes but even as this guy pointed out, China is being backed into a corner. it's now or never and Biden is the weakest president we've had in a long time. I don't think they'll out right invade but a blockade is almost a certainty this year.
Anyone familiar with the issues with property development in China would not be surprised to hear that the same type of issues are occurring with their military too.
Different issue and blown well out of proportion. Remember the same Russian-paid doomsayers loudly said China would be bankrupt in 2022 with Evergrande?
Given the very poor state of readiness by the US Navy due to failed LCS programs, delayed Constellation class frigate building, and the slightly failed Zumwalt program, I have been greatly concerned. This news is quite welcome and comforting indeed.
As a close follower of China news and Simon’s channels. You and your channel move fast and accurate. And this came out just before the Taiwan election? Good job
@DK-ev9dg He's western using his mouth to give a piece of his opinion, back up by the best source available. Not gonna happen in prc hivemind propaganda.
@jamieflame01 do you think China constantly pumps out anti American content like this? Do white people get hate crimed and called us gov to justify it? Did China go around trying to name a virus the American virus or the dem/repub virus?
It just shows that the people in charge of the rocket forces don't believe they'll ever, or at least not while they are liable for the failure, have to fire their rockets. It's not like a tank, truck, or plane where you expect it to actually do something on at least a semi-regular basis. Strategic rockets just get put into their silos and sit, get 'tested' then sit some more. Eventually they are replaced by newer rockets all with no real proof they ever worked or the silos could open quickly in an emergency.
Imagine e buying a car in the 1980s, putting it into a garage, leaving it there for decades, and then expecting its engine to start flawlessly some 40-50 years later with a single turning of the key. This is the problem of strategic missile forces. The US spends tens of billions of dollars each year just to keep its nukes in shape.
@@CZpersifun fact, WD-40 was made just for this exact reason! And another reason why the USA will always have an edge over anything in this dimension, and from what Im reading recently, in other dimensions!
Extraordinarily well written and researched episode. And in so little time. Hats off to Evan! This man deserves more than a quiet end slate credit, Simon!
As a Brit, I've always taken our low corruption for granted. It does happen, but it's almost always called out and is typically business fraud/expense scandals. I can't imagine the military being corrupt.
Corruption in the West in government usually takes the form of kickbacks on overpriced contracts; the work still gets done, just at an overinflated price.
Have you been living under a rock for the last 14 years? 😂 Our governments barely even trying to hide their efforts to funnel taxpayer money to their donors private companies anymore.
Corruption does not stand out in the country where you are robbed daily at every single step you make. From the government to your neighbours kids. Every single day.
@@10secondsrule Yeah, people have different views on taxes. Some people would rather live like a Victorian than ensure basic standards. I'm actually in favour of taxes to fund basic services so don't see it that way.
The One Child policy caused parents to pick boys to preserve the family name and be financially taken care of in old age. That makes the boy family heir financially responsible for his parents and grandparents. If that heir dies, it’s a Saving Private Ryan situation, the PLA can’t fight a real war anyway.
And with all the money floating around over there now how many of these rich kids will want to fight and loose everything. Even moderate wealth will change the thinking.
@@bestestusernamethis is not even mentioning that India could take Tibet (or other lands) as an invasion of Taiwan (plus all the other islands Matsu, Kinmen etc) would take up most of the PLA resources.
Common misconception: "Guan Shui" means fill it with water. It's a term meaning "to cook the books", it doesn't literally mean the rockets were filled with water. They were filled with a cheaper alternative that doesn't perform as well.
Wasn't there something in the news a little while ago about Chinese military exports weren't working as advertised for their customers? This report on the corruption in the Chinese military didn't surprise me, but water in the rockets in place of fuel got me.
Yeah claiming you can fill a solid block of epoxy like substance with water would get anyone with any understanding of rockets. Or the part about using highly explosive rocket fuel to cook hot pot. But I guess western audiences aren't that smart, to put it mildly.
That report was mostly false otherwise why do you see many countries still buying chinese hardwere? Indonesia just purchased a batch of anti ship missiles. You have to check the sources
I was a supply officer in our Navy, and there was a tiny bit of corruption on a personal level, like "I'll come and knock out those little welding jobs if you can get me a ten pound can of coffee..." We call it comshaw. But every man-jack on the ship was devoted to the mission, and corruption on a larger scale was dealt with swiftly and people lost their jobs and went to prison. I don't know how a communist country could ever hope to install that in its personnel.
Lol. You think there is no corruption in procurement? Corruption in the west merely looks different with bribes being comfy positions and stock options after leaving the service/politics.
Was it compulsory? If you and your crew were there because you *chose* to be, that makes it infinitely more likely that you'll at least have some semblance of a damn to give about the mission. For someone without a choice, it is easy to understand why their regard for what they're doing is limited to "the bare minimum or less."
Americans: I was loyal to the military because if I wasn't, I would lose my job and go to prison. How can a Communist country instill that kind of loyalty in its citizens if they don't fear losing their jobs? Also Americans: The Chinese government is so evil. If you don't cut your hair exactly like they tell you to, they'll drag you out behind the shed and sh∅∅t you. So, which is it then? 😂
I gave the supply LPO a carton of newports for him to just expedite a parts request. Was the equipment broken? Yes. Was it "mission critical": No. But I wanted WEPS to get off my ass on why we weren't doing OCSOT at 2 AM. Sure enough, we got the replacement part at the next port, was able to put it in, and we didn't have an empty chair at an op test. It's Win/Win/Win for everyone and it just cost me 25 bucks.
Its hard to build anything meaningful in a culture that legitimately thinks tricking and deceiving everyone you do business with is admirable (see also: The China Hustle). We often fail to consider cultural differences when it comes to military capabilities but in places like Russia and China, their cultural proclivities will always undermine their ability to do anything at scale efficiently.
China has always been a society of conduct. They are so sensitive towards self-respect that they even fake their Casualties. The soldiers who sacrifice for their nation are just easily snubbed and Overshadowed by the Chinese Government for maintaining a prestige. And since it's a authoritarian government, their families are never informed and the government can't even be questioned.
When I was in the Navy, I was pretty let down by something: our p3 orion Harpoon pylons had outdated "Kapton" wiring. This was "gun decked," as the harness swap should have happened when I was in middle school. It was a big deal, and ended up being a lot of work... but, at no point, did those pylons not work. The were almost equally combat effective in either configuration. Western corrruption was building them to begin with ... not their maintenace and use. That is the difference.
Recently our commando force blew a couple hundred million on purchasing a glorified quad. It's listed as lightly armoured, but uses your face to deflect bullets and our (listed as) unarmoured Mercedes cars had better armour. In fact this vehicle, called the Vector, is inferior in every way compared to its rivals. It initially ran on a twostroke moped engine, 1920's technology, then quickly adopted a stock Austrian engine when the Vector was about to lose the bid. Turns out all shareholders in the company that makes the Vector, Defenture, are former officers of the specific units that purchased it.... With one exception, who is the Tiel based moped dealer who builds the damn things for them, who's known only for building inferior cheap quads that run on ancient twostroke engines.
Watch Perun's episode on corruption in militaries. It's a sobering reality check on just at how ungodly many levels theft, graft and financial manipulation can take place if it's the common mentality in the army. And the conclusion is that once corruption takes hold, it's from the top to the bottom. Everyone needs someone to cover for them. And those who cover want a slice too... And so on and so forth.
灌水 in Chinese (pronounced "guànshuǐ) usually means "irrigation". (It's also the name of a town in Shandong Province.) But the two characters (taken separately) mean "fill" and "water". And, most importantly for your report, "灌水" is also a common Chinese idiom for "artificially increasing weight to cook the books". My guess? The editors (reporters?) at Bloomberg don't speak Chinese. This suggests to me - someone with really basic Chinese - that all the speculation about actual H2O in Chinese rockets wildly misses the mark. I suspect it's more likely that one or more people with responsibility for China's rockets was caught "cooking the books." But using actual water to fill up rockets? My best guess is that's just poor translation.
So may so-called china experts who know neither Chinese characters nor Chinese cultures draw such a ridiculous conclusion based on the words translated by machines that the military power of the China is not competitive.😂. Is it that all the CIA spies sent to China have been caught? The intelligence capacity is so low 😅😅😅
Replacing other liquids with water is a common method of fraud, fuel and water would have approximately the same weight so it would be a relatively simple way to steal the fuel and not raise suspicions. Does not seem at all far fetched to me. Another meaning of those Chinese characters is "to inject water into meat to increase its weight" so it can also be read in a very literal sense of filling something with water for fraudulent purposes.
@@nathangriffiths6218Other channels have covered this with better information. Short version, liquid fueled missiles are not kept fueled and are sometimes rinsed out with water.
When i was in the navy, i had my chief describe the differences in corruption between our system and china/russia as roughly thus (its been almost a decade so im prob not remembering it word for word): "Here, everyone is ripping off the system thru overcharging. The contractors, the agreements, the politicians, everyone is charging a dollar for what should be a dime, so every project, good, gun and mission costs 10x more than it should in reality. But it gets done. The boys get their guns, the mission is accomplished, the objectives met. Yeah, its bull#$%$ how much it costs, but whats needed is acquired. In the east, they charge 10 the cost, make the gear crap quality anyways, and then steal it out of depots after the fact. Assuming they even actually made it in the first place." Every country has corruption, but in the west, it means allot of palms are being greased. In china and Russia, it cuts deeply into strategic readiness and capacity. I can only imagine how hard he is laughing about all this xp. semper fortis Senior.
"In the east, they charge 10 the cost, make the gear crap quality anyways, and then steal it out of depots after the fact. Assuming they even actually made it in the first place" Nah. In China they charge ??? but probably not 10x, then do all the things you said. In Russia, they charge 1x the cost, promise moon on a stick, and after failing miserably they fall back on the old and proven 1950s design that works as intended. In India, they charge .1 of the cost, and then roll a magic die to see what happen. If they roll a crit, they somehow get everything they want. Very different systems.
Argentinian joke: There is a politicians' gathering in the US and a Texan and an Argentinian become friends. The Texan invites home the Argentinian. It is a magnificent ranch. The Argentinian asks, "how could you afford to get this ranch?" The Texan takes him to his wall where hangs the picture of a bridge. "Building that bridge I made the money to build my ranch." A while passes and the Texan goes to Argentina to visit his friend. His home is a great mansion. The Texan asks, "how can you afford this mansion?" The Argentinian takes him to his wall where there is an empty space. "By not building that bridge I made the money to build my mansion."
I've been saying for YEARS that China's military power is waaaaaaay over stated! A good example of a microcosm is the videos of their tanks (in the field not on parade) you can clearly see the main gun wobble, as in, the gun isn't stabilized. This leads to 1 of 3 conclusions. 1. Corruption has lead to cheaply made tanks. The stabilizing funds "disappeared" 2. They can't stabilize the gun because they just don't have the funding for it. Because it's been coming to light that their economy isn't as big or stable as we have been told by them. Or 3. They just don't know that is needs to be stabilized. Which is just incompetents on the part of their military and Ministry of Defence (or what ever the department is called)
This is EXACTLY what many people said about Russia before realizing hey underestimated Russia. Its the standard playbook for precursors to manufacturing consent and an appetite for war.
@@lancerevo9747Russia never stopped it’s Soviet collapse. That’s why it’s always fighting wars with former Soviet states like Chechnya, Georgia, Tajikistan, Abkhazia, Moldova, Ukraine etc. To get back land/ports/infrastructure/logistics it lost with the Soviet Union fragmenting. The PLA are also weak, failing to defeat Turkistan independence fighters in Xinjiang or capture islands like Kinmen right off the coast of Fujian province for 70+ years. If you can’t defeat what you call “separatism” you don’t have a capable military.
@@lancerevo9747the Russian military was overestimated before they invaded Ukraine. Who underestimated them? Most express thought they would finish the war in less than a month.
Agree and the US Navy budget is an absolute scandal based on inflating the Chinese threat. "Department of Navy spending for the fiscal year 2024 has a requested budget of $255.8 billion, an addition of $11.0B (4.5%) from the final budget for FY 2023, including supplementary funds." SLASH IT
The whole water inside the rocket sounds like a giant misunderstanding for me. Because if you know anything about rockets, you know in order to pressure tests their internal tanks, you do it with water. Not a volatile explosive.
Excellent episode and I agree that this corruption scandal in the PLA, while generating some amusing headlines, will likely have global geopolitical repercussions for years, if not decades, to come. Combined with China's ongoing economic woes and Beijing's seeming inability to get a handle on those, as well as mounting structural issues (a distinctly declining demographic situation) and it could well mean that the curtain will ring down on what was supposed to be the "Chinese century" far sooner than anyone ever expected.
Don't get your hopes up. China is growing at 5% it leads in wind/solar, 5G, industrial robotics, high speed rail etc. It economy shall recover keep in mind it let evergrande collapse in order to burst the housing bubble.
This is how armchair experts sold a dream of easy victory for Ukraine, today they are rolling on the floor begging for more aid after losing an unspeakable number of casualties. China is larger, closer, and Taiwan is smaller and isolated from land supply chains. Don't be silly twice, people.
@lancerevo9747 I never heard a single person claim an easy victory for Ukraine. There's no reason to believe that China's military is stronger than Russias and they don't share a land border which instantly makes any invasion attempt 100x harder.
@@lancerevo9747Are you for real? Ukraine wasn't trying to take over Russia, Russia is trying to take over Ukraine. Ukraine has no choice but the defend itself just as Taiwan has no choice.
As a Canadian born in the PRC until the age of ten, I hope this would be one of a string of setbacks that will either bring the PRC to the table of global players as a responsible player or it could allow moderates and progressives that are left in the CCP to rebuild its powerbase and perhaps bring about a true political reform and transition in a more liberal form of government. Because if the CCP were to fall, the devastation that would befall my birth nation is something I shudder to imagine. I could see a return to the warlord era with each regional military commanders carving up China and wage war with one another for power and supremacy while the world simply watches because of how China has soured its relation with the world.
As a Chinese living in Canada, I have to tell you that white people will never want to see China becomes No 1 super power in the world, they don't want to see a lot of Chinese people become rich. You know white Canadian even complained rich Chinese immigrants made Canadian housing market become unaffordable! You need to understand Chinese culture and history better. China's rising is unstoppable, and Chinese government and people are capable to fix these corruption issues! If you think Chinese army sucks, you really underestimate your birth country and your root!
As horrible as it is to consider, the demographic situation is truly cataclysmic. Combined with energy and food fragility, the prospects are indeed terrifying. It is harder to conceive of a good scenario. I am so sorry about your homeland if it is indeed the case.
With all that you have said, is the very reason I hope the CCP leadership would see the reality facing China currently and in the foreseeable future so that they would wake up from their dreams of regaining the former glory of the Chinese Empires that never was and instead hunker down and start rebuilding a foundation for responsible governance so that the people of China can have hope again and start having children again, because who would want to bring a new life into a world of turmoil and uncertainties. However with the CCP's insatiable need for absolute control just like sand in the hand, the harder you try to hold on to it with brute force, the faster it escapes from you. In the end I don not see a peaceful transfer of power of any kind instead all I see is violence in the future. I may just be a pessimist but that is what I foresee with the information I have. Yet I hope against hope and wish upon the star that is not the case and I may one day see a China that i can be proud of.@@iddomargalit-friedman3897
@obliviousxconfused I'm not sure if you are a real Chinese, or you may be brought into the believing of "Chinese government is bad and evil" after hearing MSM stories. You need to understand what Chinese government has achieved in last 45 years (since 1978), you should be proud of how much people's life have been improved in such short period of time! There's no perfect society and China is too big having so many people living inside it. There are still a lot of things to be done, luckily the government is on the right track. Even the US and western countries have corruption or wrongdoings in their government, it's impossible to have 100% corruption-free society! Chinese government has already put a lot of efforts to make the society more fair and try to take care of everyone regardless poor or rich. You should look at documentary about poverty alliviation in China (ruclips.net/video/dcF_WB--P0U/видео.html), you'll find out how bad the western media is. Western media doesn't need to tell the truth about China's development, they just want to slander China, destabilize China, etc... In short, you should be open-minded about what happen in China, and remember there's no a single country in the world really care about Chinese people destiny, only Chinese government does!
Demographics of an aging population without youth will close the opportunity window. Also, China does not appeal to inmigrants. There will be no other opportunity, China will go the way of France. A nuclear power incapable of projecting conventional warfare abroad.
They have the opportunity in the red sea to show their naval ability but they have chosen to pay houthis not to shoot at their ships instead. they have ships in Djibouti that can help but bribery is a cultural thing.
As I've said before, I really don't think China ever had the intention of actually invading Taiwan. The threat of doing so is enough. That and forcing various countries to choose them rather than Taiwan has the result they require.
Then would it be safe for Taiwan to seek official recognition at the UN as its own "country" (regardless of whether the name of this country includes "China" or not)? It sounds like it's safe...
@@edisrafehtable Not sure, that would be a big move. I don't believe China have the intention of invading Taiwan as I said, but something big could change that. The way China is collapsing so fast could also change things and make them more desperate.
As an Australian this is a tremendous good news day. Our nation last year started taking steps towards building a navy and airforce to turn itself into the regional power it’s perceives itself to be. Also an expansion in army personnel and equipment. Everything has been upgraded. And new nuclear subs and light carrier force capabilities, being procured over the next decade all to protect ourselves from china, this news certainly makes it appear that with this new swing in looking after ourselves instead of crying to America every time someone says something mean, we could well dominate china. Which is only a positive for global trade in the South Pacific region.
As an American, I want our allies to be able to defend themselves without needing our help. It's like a feedback loop: having stronger allies makes our nation stronger also. And given recent shakiness in our own internal politics it's best that our allies have credible defense allowing them to stand on their own in case that becomes necessary. And our allies aren't out to build empires so stronger allies makes war less likely. "Peace through strength" is more than just a slogan.
The problem with China trying to eliminate corruption is that in China every level of government from the local officials to the President are relying on the corruption of those at the lower levels for income and compelling them to corrupt actions. And the local officials do the same to the individual citizens, and citizens learn that that's just how life is, and when they get any power (like becoming officers in the Military) as far as they're concerned it's just how the system works and it's their turn to get their share and this is what they've been working toward for most of their career. It's not just endemic, it's compulsory.
True, corruption is deeply rooted in their culture. You only have to live there for a year to see it and even have to take part in it yourself to function there. Even those supposedly purging the corruption are certainly also corrupt themselves.
Hit the nail on the head, i ran a foreign marketing agency in China for 10 years and we had to play the corruption game to be able to get any sort of local business (bribes, kickbacks, under-quoting project proposals just to win bids knowing we had no way to deliver a quality product but who cares as long as we got paid, cookin' the books, you name it.) Having no scruples is a pre-requisite, not the exception. Even our office cleaning lady was in on the corruption game, hiring her buddies from the countryside to do the work while she went to get other gigs. She only got caught because I came in super early to the office once and found some random kid mopping the floor, turns out it was her friends son.
@@milfhunter8887 I was slightly more fortunate. When our company was considering doing business in China I investigated the legal framework and found that laws regarding the corporate structure of businesses with any foreign investment were fundamentally contradictory. IE, no way to comply with all of them at the same time because some require things that others forbid. And I had heard the stories of my great^3 grandparents in Russia, and knew damn well that kind of contradictory-law situation can only exist when local officials have their hands out for bribes to "help" you through the "problems" you'll encounter and their higher-ups allow and encourage it. So on my recommendation the company said "no thanks" and we escaped the trap. Since then I've kept an eye on China. There've been no signs of improvement. In fact the contrary.
@@loot6 Lol there's corruption in every government across the world, to say its part of Chinese culture is absurd. The US, UK, etc. have some of the most corrupt politicians on the planet.
I just read that Russia and China held war games and china's equipment fell apart consistently. Tanks with wheels popping off the tracks etc. I came to the same conclusion, that china's military capabilities being shown to be much weaker than expected will result in big changes on the diplomatic front.
@user70331 yes this is also a good point! Couple that with the fact that china's economy is interdependent and intertwined with America's and it's not a good picture for them. The chinese can only rock the boats of their trade partners so much and if America's elections result in a Trump victory there will be political will to resist Chinese expansionist policies. In that event I would bet that Taiwan will still be independent in the years to come...and I'm not a betting man.
I've believed that for some time now. Given how corruption has led to tofu dreg not just in buildings, but also infrastructure, manufactured goods, hell even a lot of the food and drink, it seems not only reasonable but likely their military is affected just as much. I mean, to think that China has buildings falling apart, and roads collapsing and EV cars blowing up regularly, but that their military machine wouldn't be affected by any of the sort is ludicrous.
Nyc has had buildings suddenly catching on fire and random fucking collapses but we ain't calling that shit cookie crumble buildings are we? We make our houses out of fucking plywood and wet paper. Fucking christ.
@@Drownedinbloodthe last time a building in America collapsed like a video from LiveLeak was in 2021. America averages a colossal infrastructure failure once every decade. China averages one a year. Yeah, America fucking sucks, but I would pick any other nation in Asia besides the stans before China.
“Had the order ever come down, the missiles would be unable to escape their silos.” You sound a bit like Frederick Forsyth! That is the highest compliment I can give
I like his talking speed. I'll set it to 2x while I'm working on something else but with some other narrators even at 2x speed it's too slow. Just in general I'm very glad that youtube allows us to controll the speed we watch/listen to a video!
It's so consistent with all other intelligence the US and its allies have gathered (most of which they don't publish). Western military commanders know way more about China's capabilities than they tell the press. And this is highly consistent with what they know otherwise they wouldn't play it up so much.
I'm an American living in China. The disappearing of top generals was pretty big news here, though obviously anything questioning the readiness of the military is not being reported on. However, I did hear that the rockets being filled with water rather than fuel might be due to a bad translation. 溉水 (guàn shuǐ) roughly translates to manipulating accounts or figures (i.e. "cooking the books"), but literally translates to "crops" and "water". So it might have been a translation issue where the Chinese were talking about cooking the books but the translation ended up with "water" and that is where the rumor about rockets filled with water came from. There is no way of knowing for sure, but things get lost in translation all the time. Like how western media started reporting on the "social credit system" based on a bad translation of a CCP internal document. The social credit system does not exist, I can tell you that one for sure.
Your statement is dismissed as propaganda until you decide to leave China and post a video. When you're in a safe place feel free to watch actual information. Personally I'll trust history and the United States rather than someone trying to poke tiny holes in a blow out news story on the heels of several disappearances. Serpentza and Uncensored China are good places to start for those of us who want to know more from people who lived in China.
There is no social credit system as people imagine it but there are various efforts at different levels developing it. But it is low tech and fragmented. There's no Draconian digital citizen score hovering over you like some dystopian horror film.
I always get nervous around these subjects cause, while I know China does have issues, I also know that there is a long history of issues being exaggerated or simply made up by white supremacists and kin.
Iv been trying to tell this to people forever. your military is as good as its experience. As bad as it is… There is a benefit to constantly being at war. That is we know what we’re doing
In a country, where there is only one policy, there is bound to be widespread corruption.. If you can't change people's minds or opinions, then you can pay them for favours even if it contradicts that person's belief or faith
Ever since China's rise and recognition as a potential threat I've always thought of it as a house of cards and probably not all that if push comes to shove. Internal competition pushes the envelope, one party states are always limited. Formidable, but limited
Same as the USSR, at our peak of our fear of them they had become a paper tiger due to corruption same as China. By the 80s there was hardly a single USSR combat unit that was actually combat effective and their best technology was far behind ours. Now in the early 70s and 60s they were a serious threat
China's demographic collapse is going to do them in. Probably Russia's, too. Which has only accelerated with this war that's not only killed many young men, but driven even more of them out.
a few years ago my friend went home and found two guys robbing her house, she ran to a neighbours house and called the police who were able to attend quickly.... not only were the guys still there, but one pointed a fake gun at the police at got shot 3 times. I think about that regularly.... don't point a fake gun at someone with a real one that knows how to use it.
We all know that’s what China and Russia do. They may look big and scary especially on a map, but deep down neither of them even have a functional military and logistics capabilities due to corruption.
As a Taiwanese and just most of the people living in Taiwan. We never underestimate what China is capable of. We do, from time to time, mock them but that's how it is in a free society. Purging in the communist party is a tradition, this is something that most people in the West do not understand. They immediately think there is an ongoing chaos in the communist party. The CCP has just gone more stable, which is obviously, not in our interest. People who have been following the Cross-Strait relations for a very long time have learned that reports about the CCP from "an unnamed US intelligence source" have most of the time remained not as factual as expected.
It is better to be rich and with your people than to be slaves of the English, half dead - half beggars. Look at Ukraine. Until recently, it was a rich country (at the level of France and Germany) and a population of 52 million people. But they decided to betray their brothers and came under the control of the British. Now they are extremely poor and essentially extinct.
That is a very odd conclusion. The idea that corrupt dictatorial regimes make logical military decisions when facing a crisis is definitely an interesting one.
It's more like during urgent decisions it's harder to make bad mistakes. Like during COVID the dictatorial governments are capable of rolling out lockdowns faster and more strict than democratically elected and operated governments.
Taiwan is necessary to completely cement the CCPs legitimacy as China's true government, utterly failing at their invasion of Taiwan would be disastrous for the CCP, but at the end of the day Taiwan is just a trophy on the shelf for China and they aren't third world dictators a government that has lasted as long as the CCP isn't so foolish as to burn itself to the ground for a trophy.
The american belief that „everyone else is weak and has a terrible military compared to us“ is heavily flawed and has been proven so many times to be the opposite case, but americans dont care they just lie their way out of everything
The big problem for China is most families only have one child/son, witch means for every soldier who dies, one family become childless. It would cost maybe up to a million deaths to invade Taiwan, so it unlikely China would survive it. Taiwan is perfect for defense with high terrain and being an island.
And addition to that, Taiwan has US backing. Even though it’s unofficial, US simply would not give up since they have tight grip on the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
And let's not forget that the US and Taiwan are not in some kind of bubble. The Philippines, Japan, Australia and South Korea are certainly not going to stand idly. Not to mention, would they REALLY trust that rivals India, Russia, and even Vietnam wouldn't think about taking advantage of certain border disputes while their military is distracted elsewhere?
Chinese leaders have never had a problem with using their citizens as cannon fodder. We saw that clearly in Korea, Vietnam and also (in a slightly different vatiation) Tiananmen Square.
This might be part of why Xi has recently made more overt statements about seeking to reunite with Taiwan peacefully: doing it militarily might not be as much of an option as once thought
Well what is Xi doing about it other than bully and harass Taiwan? Would anyone willingly join an organisation which stoops to that. He is a fool if he thinks the Taiwanese will embrace such tactics. It serves as a stark warning of what life would be like under China. Indeed it is “Hong Kong today , Taiwan tomorrow”. China should clean up its own back yard first as it is nothing like the free and democratic Taiwan as a place to live in except for the officials who use their position to extort money from others. Taiwan is a wonderful and safe little country. Certainly all countries have their crime but Taiwan is a most peaceful place with a wonderful police force that are helpful to those in need. I have even ridden in a police car. We had lost our way so the police put us in their car and took us. Would this happen in China and indeed many other countries? If Taiwan is taken over, the first thing that will happen is that China will flood the country with mainlanders who will import their own culture rather than adopt that of Taiwan. The Taiwanese will become second class citizens in their own land.
Slight correction: The phrase "Fill water" is a mistranslation. "Filled water" is a common Chinese phrase used to denote that a high quality item has been replaced with a lower quality item (Such as an expensive broth being replaced with tap water). Despite what Bloomberg states, the Chinese missiles were not literally "Filled with Water", but rather, the expensive rocket fuel used in the missiles were replaced with subpar fuel, with officials pocketing the difference. This means that Chinese missiles would still be able to fire & work as normal, but would not have enough range to go further than the Chinese coast. It also means that Chinese missiles might self-implode if they were ever launched.
Thank you for that clarification.
That's almost worse than being filled with literal water.
If they were in fact liquid rockets they should not be fueled at all. Rockets with liquid fueled motors never are stored with the fuel as their tanks are not meant for long term storage of such volatile and or / cold substances like rocket fuel or lox.
@@alert.272unless its hypergolic fuel which we use in ours specifically because of longer term storage in silos, they have to be able to launch at a moments notice and it could take 20 minutes or more to transfer cryogenic fuel in the rocket
@@CyberSquatch773not sure where you live but in the US, from my reading, the only active missiles are the minuteman iii which use solid rocket fuel
The idea that someone can be so corrupt that Bloomberg takes notice of it is both terrifying and laughable.
Lmao
I think pointing out Chinese Military is just mediocre , everybody know about them right? I am not even surprise, didnt expect much from them.
*laughs in russian*
Game recognized game...
China is nothing compared to what is happening in Russia or even most of the Eastern Europe. The reason Bloomberg took notice has more to do with the recent tensions between The West and China, rather than China internal issues alone.
As a person of Chinese descent, this isn’t surprising at all. Comical levels of corruption has been a plague two centuries running. You had admirals breaking down warship guns for scrap metal, an empress looting the army funds for palace renovations, and the utter disarray of the Warlord era.
Yeah, not really that surprised here.
It’s almost impressive how much of an absolute disaster much of Chinese history has been in the last two centuries
There were some who were not corrupt like San Yatsen, Yan Xishan and others but much of the leadership (KMT and especially Communist) have been very corrupt.
I recall reading a story from the Chinese navy in the early days ( pre Russo-Japanese war) where in one of the few 'modern' warships they had, the officers had sold off the gunpowder and filled the magazines with trade goods. They were using a big expensive modern cruiser as a tramp freighter up and down the coast of china.
But what about the admiral? Surely he would have put a stop to it?
It was his flagship...
But according to most knuckle dragging idiots, a big army is scawy. Even though military history has proven that unit cohesion, strict discipline, and adept training has always been the better way.
Would you rather wield a thousand nails or one spear? Its really that simple.
Just proves that stereotypes exist for a reason🤣
Another important lesson not touched upon is the reason for the missing fuel. If the troops are so insufficiently provided for in something as high profile as the rocket forces, how bad is it for guys in the field? I imagine supply issues are rampant throughout the Chinese military but aren’t really talked about.
That's what I thought... These high tech military bases don't have microwaves?
I remember hearing similar stories from somewhere in the US military many years ago. I can't remember the details now but it was something like the fuel they were given for cooking their food gave it a smell or gave off smelly smoke or something & so they chose to use mission fuel for cooking so as to avoid that, cause they liked it better. Pretty sure in that case it was just requiring lots of additional fuel be shipped in & it came out when their supply section FINALLY realised there was a problem in how much fuel was being used, but at taht point the practice had been going on for many years. I don't think they have any cooking stuff nowadays, I think it's all built in heating, probably in part as the fallout from that. Anyway, just saying, I wouldn't assume it's lack of supplies based on that. Plenty of western militaries have also had people speak to the press about soldiers being told to "say bang" when pretend shooting at each other, because of a lack of bullet supplies to save costs (that's what soldiers report anyway, it could also be a safety thing in the settings where it's occuring)
The big problem isn't soldiers taking some jet fuel for cooking. The problem is that the contractors who supplied some of the rocket fuel provided a cheaper quality of fuel, and pocketed the difference. The story about cooking with jet fuel is unrelated to this scandal, and came from a defector, who told the story over a decade ago, about events that happened even before that. IDKY the news people are conflating the two stories.
*You really have to* take those stories with a grain of salt. The most basic of militarily-useful solid propellants burn at over 3000°C, at least double the melting point of any stainless steel, aluminium, brass, or cast iron cooking vessel.
@@mehere8038 truly spoken like someone who's never been in the military. The reason we say "bang" during training is not because of a lack of ammunition or even an effort to save ammunition. When you are in the early phases of learning squad tactics you don't want to fill everyone's magazines with live ammo for obvious reasons. So we say "bang". Once units reach a certain level of training, and at scheduled training evolutions live ammo is used, but only once said unit has been well trained (yes, it's that simple). The US military has always and always will use the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid). No different than Olympic athletes drawing success from the continuous practice of fundamentals. When fundamentals are mastered they become muscle memory and that's when you have an effective solution to a problem. This is main reason for the success and readiness of US forces vs other nations that don't have the funding to do the training needed. It costs a lot of moolah.
As far as using jet or rocket fuel for cooking in the US military... Not sure where you heard this but nothing could be further from the truth. The average grunt, mechanic, supplyman, etc doesn't have access to the areas where those items are stored unless they specifically work in those areas. Even then very strict documentation is maintained to account for known quantities inbound and outbound.
Let's just stick to the facts instead of conjecture and rumor please.
As a Taiwanese, I would say that it's never completely off the table for China invading Taiwan because that's their internal rhetoric for many years and someone will be crazy enough to launch one, even if it is doomed from the beginning.
So I would never agree with closer economic ties with China, because it opens door for them to conquer us economically, if they can't militarily take Taiwan then it's even more important that they don't take over economically, let them stay at an arms length and implode themselves over their Taiwan policy.
Question. If the US abandons Taiwan and you get surrounded by China's navy, would you still fight on the ground? or give up?
Lol Japan that would get liquidated by North Korea imagine a big country like China 😂😂@@kyleblankiv7589
@@kyleblankiv7589 Biden wouldn't abandon Taiwan, but Trump might. he is always thinking isolationist and prefers dictatorships to democracies.
Japan is not allowed to operate military elements outside its borders. Hasn’t been for 90 years. They’re still in timeout for Pearl Harbor, that’s why you don’t hear about anything but their home guard. Now would we do anything but slap their wrist for hitting china? No. But technically it would be a worldwide issue.
@@Adonnus100Trumps not even an option anymore lmao. Every American leader will fight for democracy. The senate and congress hold way more power than the president lol.
The one thing that makes me believe China's military is probably not that scary is how much they focus on choreography. They believe that acting like robots is a sign of efficiency, but in war things can get pretty unpredictable. Corruption, inflexibility and inexperience will severely limit the PLA in a real conflict, no matter how many aliexpress F35s they build.
They're an even bigger paper tiger than the russian military.
Every time military parades come up, I remind people that every day spent preparing for parades is a day NOT spent preparing for war.
I’m pretty sure china is playing the long game and will wait decades before invading
Trump was right. The US should have a yearly parade like China, Russia, France, etc.
@@dpelpal Keep in mind that the Russian military had combat experience and are used to large scale military operations, botch as they may be. The last time China fought a war was with Vietnam and ended with mixed results. If they are eyeing Taiwan, it's not gonna end well for them.
I worked on and off in China over the last 20 years. Corruption and the required lavish dinners were mandatory across the board in the early 2000's. By 2017 they were gone for most business as people were afraid of being charged with corruption. My colleagues mentioned 'except in the military '. When we were discussing it. Never gave it much thought.
People don't realise how deep the corruption goes. It's not just a bunch of generals skimming off the top. It's down to the individual unit level and even individual soldiers, scrapping, selling, etc, their equipment.
@@王震-d2j😂
@@王震-d2j Over 70% of Chinese fossil fuels travel through US controlled waters and China exists at the end of the longest energy supply chain on the planet. It also cannot feed it's own population without the US. China's military has no real war experience, especially not a modern war. It's corruption within it's bureaucracy rivals the USSR and it's demography is unsustainable. Also, logistics win wars, not "mach 25" missiles.
@@王震-d2jnuch fantasy little content. You should consider joining the vatnik bots
@@王震-d2j Lmao
Their banking system is in a mess too
And it's already too deep here .
One correction: The people hand picked for the positions (who were subsequently sacked) weren't picked because they were seen as the "best and brightest" that the country had to offer. They were party members who had been given the appointments due to perceived loyalty to the people who made the appointment. The Chinese government is not a meritocracy.
DEI is much the same, and it is already becoming the ruination of the West and the West’s military.
Ours (the US) isn’t a meritocracy any longer either. We are short 45,000 front line troops. The Generals are studying “white rage”. Message received. Traditional whites die at twice their enrollment. They volunteer for the front line action.
And people will still say that "China is not communist country but crazy capitalist country, that is why it fails". It is just like Soviet union.
Xi purges the best and brightest because he is paranoid about anyone opposing them. Xi likes his dogs dumb and obedient.
Good correction, I also thought that line was a bit misguided
Before we get too confident that there won't be a war over Taiwan is growing less and less likely, let's remember that not all war decisions are made using game theory like risk/reward assessments. Sometimes a leader has a political faction critical to them holding power barking in their ear, and even if that war is ruinous in the long term, the leader has to do it anyway because the PERSONAL consequences would be disastrous and more immediate if they don't.
I think it's ALWAYS been the case that invading Taiwan would be an epically stupid move. Ukraine, China's economic downturn, the risk of long term economic sanctions and damage, and the fact that they're unlikely to be successful (according to nonclassified wargames) all tell the tale - China should NOT invade Taiwan.
But with alot of US advanced programs scheduled to bear fruit in the early 2030s, and their buildup, Winnie the Pooh may have hawks in his party who think it's 'now or never', and want to roll the dice. Perhaps hawks who have bought into their own propaganda, or believe the west is too weak/corrupt to stand up for Taiwan. Just because it's a stupid decision, doesn't mean it's a decision that can't be made.
That's why sticking with Ukraine and building up deterrence in the short term is so important. It needs to be obvious even to those hawks that the west will act, and they will lose.
Exactly.
Basically any minimally sane and competent US administration would have made it an insanity.
But the weakness is so glaring it has to be tempting.
Honestly it seem like the west and its rival are at a race to the bottom, and we are lucky they are falling somewhat ahead.
yeah exactly dude
On top of what you said, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that China might invade Taiwan to overcompensate for this news getting out. Even it's not rational, they might invade because they want to restore their global reputation.
Idk how people don't see this. And this whole video is taking a Chinese leak at face value.
If you were right about to invade wouldent it be very good strategy to make your enemy's think your army is weak, while clamping down on corruption makes those at home more likley to fall in line and giving you a excuse to hide key officials before a offensive starts.
Yep
Well i just shared this far and wide, something this important needs an audience. Excellent article, thank you
Widespread corruption in a centrally planned economy? I am SHOCKED and APPALLED
This!
Yeah because capitalist dumps are not corrupted. 🙄
I can already feel the vitriolic cope in the replies from the Western wannabe socialist zee/zers that will undoubtedly respond to your comment.
China is collapsing any day now....
@@DrownedinbloodNo it’ll be a while.
It's been oddly comforting to find all these dictatorships aren't as powerful militarily as they claimed.
Però è sconfortante vedere la popolazione mondiale subire la follia di quattro dittatori.
Yes.
They rarely are. The last one to actually back such claims were the Japanese, and we saw how that turned out.
It's also comforting that, for all the problems the United States might have, our democracy has produced the greatest military in the history of mankind.
In the recent history*@@insanusmaximus2857
To clarify: "filled with water" is a Chinese idiom meaning "cheaped out" or "cut corners" usually implying using substandard workmanship or parts. The missiles are not literally filled with water.
Thanks. I had taken it litteraly
Thanks. I had taken it litteraly
Yes, and the fact that the content in this video does not speak to the meaning phrase in local terms speaks volumes about the reliability of anything it has to say.
any channel/video by this guy - you need to take a box of salt with@@Bob-Fields
@@Bob-FieldsThat’s normal for this channel. They act like subject matter experts but actual subject matter experts find serious flaws in the content.
I’d stay cautious in case it’s disinformation… never underestimate your enemy.
Edited: F.ing autocorrection
lol
After this report, it seems the US is actually quite over prepared for war. US war doctrine preps the military in lockstep with the propoganda its adversaries pump out. If China claims to make a 6th gen fighter, the US is already working on a 7th gen
Over estimation is worse. Look at how the west viewed russia, stronk. But we are now seeing that russia was nowhere near what they hyped themselves up to be lol.
you could disable it and use word suggestions only.
@@uraniumcranium2613 true, they got a few nukes and thought they were hot shit, but at least they are smart enough, or have been smart enough to not use them, other than those they are using old tech in a modern war, they sent soldiers to modern combat holding mosins, that should tell you all you need to know about how "stronk" they are.
Reminds me of the Battle of the Yalu River (1894) when the Chinese fleet sortied to face the Japanese, only to find that most of the heavy shells were filled with cement and broken porcelain, while the gunpowder charges were from condemned batches well past their use-by date. Glad to see modern China keeping this proud military tradition alive.
Now think of Korea and Chosin
“Glad to see modern China keeping this proud military tradition alive”….lol! 😊
Glad to see how ignorant ppl try to act smart on something it knows shit about... get some proper education before you make fun of others... the first China- Japan war was never called "the Battle of Yalu River" in any circumstances...
@@Rebellpanzer the ambush where China had a 4-1 manpower advantage and succeeded in nothing more than letting the US retreat while taking 3x the casualties.
@@Barrybadrinath287 They kicked our ass out of NK , underestimating your opponent is an American trait
The one thing I want to point out is this: if you looked at things rationally, and from a perspective of abilities to wage and maintain war, World War 1 should never have begun. But strong men in positions of absolute power do not make rational decisions; they make decisions based on the idea that they are unstoppable and above repercussions.
WW1 wasn't started because they really wanted to wage war (remember the leaders of Germany and the UK were close family aunt/nephew).
They were forced by mutual alliances/treaties following an sudden event nobody predicted (the assasination).
No, it started because Germany was going to be new superpower with the railway oil project along with turkey
@@johnsamu Except you're omitting that Austria, having just had their only pro-peace high official get assassinated, had decided they were going to invade and annex Serbia no matter what, and Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted to prove he was big and bad and thus gave Austria a blank check to war all they wanted. The treaties only came into effect because Austria and Germany decided they wanted a war. (Also, Germany didn't believe Britain would involve itself over something as unimportant as Belgian neutrality, and even if it did the war would be over before it could raise significant forces.)
@@redneckgaijin The pre WW1 sentiment seems to have been that war was unavoidable because the Great powers of those days Germany, Great Britain, Russia, France all were trying to have colonies in Africa and Asia as well as extend influence in Europe. That's why there was initially a lot of enthousiasm in the participating countries during the starting stage of the war. ALL parties overestimated their own capabilities (nationalism at work here) and thought it would be "a walk in the park".
This is true, but Xi Just received a clear message that he cannot trust any of his forces to perform as expected. That doesn't mean he wouldn't still do it, but it means the level of stupidity or recklessness required is now much higher.
I worked in China up until 2015 and the scale of corruption on all levels, even down to the people making the products, was unfathomable. The more important you were, the more exposed you are to corrupt personal gain, and the more likely you are to profit. This is a huge reason why Chinese products sold worldwide are just basically crap, and their military equipment is no different.
From what I have learned from people who spend some parts of their career in China it seems to be a fundamental part of Chinese culture.
All one has to do is read about the "36 Strategems" by Tan Daoji to see where this will inevitably result in problems.
Which is also why I am sceptical about any attempt of a solution.
You can't change a countries culture over night.
so it's just like us eu africa and russia. said with other words they are just as corrupt as all other leaders and countries. how many lawsuits have been filed against your former and current president and their family in the last 5 years alone
DJI drones from China have been quite effective in Ukraine.
@@AliothAncalagonwhere is Confucius Teachings?
@@axetroll Also in China.
If..... that was your question.
My older brother has a few friends who work for “the government” with jobs that they’re not allowed to say exactly what they do. I do recall a discussion that I had with one of them around a year ago, and we were talking about China’s military. I brought up how much it’s improved over the years, and how I was concerned about going to war against it over Taiwan. He couldn’t get into specifics, but he calmly assured me that the US has nothing to worry about. And I haven’t. It was the most reassuring words he could have said. And after seeing how poorly Russia’s military is performing in Ukraine, I think the western countries can feel secure for quite a few decades to come.
Ukraine has been a fantastic opportunity for the western defense industry in general. The USA is sending Ukraine old stocks that are close to being decommissioned/disposed of anyway. In return we're getting all kinds of very useful combat information. War games are great and all but nothing beats actual combat experience to find the problems with your weapon systems and doctrine. Also we get a bit of an economic stimulus as the government orders up replacements for the old gear.
The big problem with pyramid regimes like China, Russia, NK etc is they are the most dangerous when their top dogs feel threatened. While Shi (sp?) do, now that he can’t hide his military being fit only for fancy parades? Will he lash out anyway and hope. Much as Putin did and continues to do?
I’ve heard many more say the opposite. Rightfully so, unless an extreme quantity of the PLA’s forces are straight up non-functional, which is optimistic in the extreme, they represent a very very very serious threat by quantity and in some very important areas quality.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 press x to doubt
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 Who are the many that told you the opposite because it sounds more like your personal opinion? The problem for China to use its quantitative advantage is to get those numbers into Taiwan, which would be very difficult. There are very few places in Taiwan where China can use its amphibious forces to secure beachheads, and the air will be contested to make it extremely difficult for paratroopers to land. You’ve seen the huge losses that Russia has taken offensively, and even a small river has made advances nearly impossible to penetrate. China has the whole Taiwan Strait to get across.
Perun touched on the Bloomberg report on his channel. He did a very good job explaining why some of the things reported should be taken with a pinch of salt.
So, your telling me that the home of low quality knock off merchandise is riddled with corruption? That's shocking.
YOU'RE.
If you can't bother to spell correctly, you don't deserve to be listened to.
Bravo, quality comment!
@@gareth6861 well... he's not wrong 🤣
Low quality knock off merchandise that Uncle Sam depends on
Reminder that Japan was the home of low quality knock off merchandise before they developed and no one is laughing anymore
It's very unlikely that the missiles were actually filled with water. The term "Guan Shui" (translated to "water filling") is a colloquialism and means that someone has replaced valuable or important components with things of significantly lower quality and/or cost.
Let me guess, a literal translation would be "watered down"?
@@MultiMcgruber 'to irrigate', apparently.
Didn’t they have issues with soldiers and commanders draining the fuel for other uses tho?
I wouldn't put it past them honestly. I've seen a lot of Soviet equipment being salvaged for parts that went unnoticed for decades. So long as an official inspecting it doesn't look too hard, or can be easily bribed to look the other way, they could get away with it.
the report said “filled with water instead of fuel”. if they were using the idiom that’d be like someone saying “that’s a whole other can of worms instead of soup”.
If a hypergolic fuel tank is filled with water, then that fuel tank can never be used again rendering the rocket unusable forever. Mixing hypergolic fuel with any moisture will lead to catastrophic failure.
Do you have a source about the fact that it can never be used again?
I am completely speaking outta my Xi-hole, but introducing water to the system could induce corrosion? Perhaps rusting?
@@Zman44444 The fuel itself is also corrosive. I don't know if they absolutely couldn't refuel them, but they are going to be really sure no moisture is left in the tanks or fuel is screwed.
Update to this comment, this comment applies to NON hypogolic fuel tanks.
Some aircraft have a system in place to remove water condensation from fuel tanks. This process is known as "fuel tank sumping" or "draining." Pilots may perform this procedure before a flight to ensure that any accumulated water, which can contaminate the fuel, is removed. Water in the fuel can lead to engine problems and affect the overall performance of the aircraft. Pilots typically drain a small amount of fuel from the lowest point in the fuel system and check for the presence of water. If water is detected, it is crucial to address the issue before the flight to maintain the safety and reliability of the aircraft.
@bonefishboards Mixing dictatorship and Marxist ideology with humans will lead to catastrophic failure.
Using missile fuel to cook hot pot you cannot be serious😂😂😂
in Russia we have a common saying:"strictness of laws is negated by the optionality of their enforcement"
I think it applies to Chinese corruption quite well, as death penalty for corruption in China is not unheard of, yet corruption persists nonetheless
Ты серьёзно поверил этому бреду? :)
@@MultiNike79 какому "бреду"?
@@TeRRm0s про такой уровень коррупции в китае. Это же типичное англосаксонское расчеловечивание, на типичном детсадовском уровне. У них это часть национальной культуры, но русскоязычным зачем поддакивать?
Doesnt exactly roll off the tongue....
@@danielowens9824 yeah it doesn't
in English
because its translated from russian you napkin
Every corrupt person ever:
"Weed out corruption, only I am allowed to be corrupt"
if u got a corrupt person on the top u know every 1 below it is corrupt we seen russia military in ukraine why would china be different
That moment when you find out your missles all came from Temu... 🤣
😂😂😂
😂😂😂😂
naaaah, more like Wish lol
And also think that information like this should be kept on the down low to prevent realization to adversaries .
The 'elephant in the room' in all this is the development of India. While Russia's situation may be deteriorating, India is certainly motivated to keep sharpening its sword. In many respects India has the same problem as China - all kinds of issues plague the Indian military. Unlike China, India has a belligerent neighbor (Pakistan) that periodically tests its defenses. As India's economy improves, so does it's capacity to field aircraft, missiles, ships, and submarines. If China has to focus its military on any one border, it leaves the other ones exposed, and both the China/India border and China/Russia border are enormous.
Nobody is looking into that angle
India will burst out on the scene soon
Actually in democratic India The free press in India makes it very tough for corruption on the Chinese scale to be seen in India
What? I thought both Pakistan and India developed nuclear weapon weapons so they could be friends!
China v India PvP
Russia v Ukraine PvP
South K v North K PvP
Russia is not deteriorating
Yeah, well, India could have counted on US assistance in such a case, until they started assassinating US and Canadian citizens. Now they get to worry about that on their own.
Just because invading Taiwan would be irrational and doomed to fail doesn't mean it wouldn't or couldn't happen. In WWII, Franz Halder, Hitler's chief of logistics for Operation Barbarossa, warned Hitler that his staff was telling him (Halder) there simply weren't enough resources & railways to guarantee operational success, yet the invasion went forward anyway. There are other historical examples too numerous to mention. Yes, invading Taiwan would be a cataclysmically bad idea. That doesn't preclude its reality.
I think it does. Xi Jinping would care about the success of an invasion, since history (especially within the Chinese public) would link it to his leadership. If he launches it and it fails, he'll be a laughingstock. So unless the CCP is willing to launch what might be one of its biggest censorship campaigns since Tiananmen, I don't think they're going to risk it.
Of course they could just be idiots and do it regardless but I would like to hope they at least have some foresight, fantastical as that notion may seem.
I wouldn't call Operation Barbarossa outright irrational. Germans saw Soviet failures during Winter War with Finland, so despite knowing the limitations they counted on quick sweep of Soviet forces. This would allow them to use vast Soviet railway system and oil fields on Caucasus to keep the gears turning. Risky but not irrational.
Better example would be current Russo-Ukrainian war, where the initial invading force of 200k russians was insufficient for any meaningful operations and doomed to fail from the get go.
So? BIG difference. Barbarossa DID work enough to get to Moscow. China wouldn't even be able to land troops on Taiwan. HUGE differnce
@@Marcus-p5i5s Germans never made it to Moscow. They got stopped outside of it
The fcking suburbs. That's like saying I didn't get to Los Angels as I was stopped in Korea Town. Rent an IQ@@txsnowman
Consider the lessons learned from the Soviets; purges are never about corruption. The purged individuals might very well have been corrupt, but the true motivator behind purges is always to remove political opponents or make someone a scapegoat. I also find it hard to discount the theory that, much like the PRCs problem of overbuilding, investments in the armed forces are simply a way to keep the economy looking better than it really is.
Yeah for sure! But I reckon China wants to look weak as in their military all their soldiers read sun tzu
" investments in the armed forces are simply a way to keep the economy looking better than it really is."
See the US for another great example of this.
@@Steelmage99 Agreed. The only difference is the US defense industry usually delivers a good product (even if overpriced).
Removing political opposition sounds familiar as well...🤔
@@buckbucker8020sometimes...
I think if there is one thing history has taught us is that when an autocratic state decides on something it will do it - whether it makes any strategic sense or not. I can point to Russia and Ukraine, Hitler and Halder (as Troyriser mentioned), Gallipoli and several of the weirder troop movements in Medieval British history. China may find itself in a position where it makes sense to attack Taiwan, purely because the party needs some kind of enemy to bolster itself against.
That's the problem with their system. Eventually people wil turn on their communist dictatorship, so in order to stay in favor with the public they will need to find a "common enemy" aka: USA
However you can also , and should, point at the numerous examples when china couldve used a diversionary war to make people rally around the flag but didnt. Great leap forward? No diversionary war, cultural revolution? Still nothing. How about 1989 student protests? Still they didint initiate a diersionary war, 2015 stock market crash in china? Still nothing. So why you assume they will do such a thing when it never happened in the past.
I’m a retired foreign service officer and military historian and this site consistently delivers a brilliant analysis that is both valuable to a professional in the field and accessible to a casual reader. Well done!
This site is biased as fuck and has no clue what it’s talking about when it comes to china. All these western sources parrot the same information about china. Yet they have never been to china or have any contacts inside china. If u were to go to china and actually experience what it is like and how efficient things are run nowadays. Then it would be quite obvious that this bald know it all man in the video has no clue what he is talking about.
for only 99.00 a year, you can get more!
As someone that listens to actual high level ex military discus’s geopolitics everyday, I found this to likely be utter nonsense. I’m not well versed enough in Chinas military equipment but the little blurbs he gave on Russia were complete nonsense so that makes me doubt the validity of this individual as a source.
There are propaganda lines on Russia and China and they are usually pretty far from the truth but the US and UK need to keep the peoples opinions inline and in support of their aggressions.
Surr
Funny, to me this story stinks of "disinformation".
If they were planning to start WW3 this year, this is exactly the kind of thing they would put out there.
It's important to remember that autocratic regimes are corrupt by design. It's what allows leaders to 'legitimately' remove rivals under corruption charges; the charges are almost always true it's just that the only people 'caught' are done so for other reasons. So a removal for corruption doesn't mean a less corrupt person will take their place.
Sweet summer child, POLITICS is corrupt by design. Autocratic or not changes nothing about the nature of power. Democracies just usually do better because its much harder for individuals to get too much power. But greed unites the western politicians in their abuse of taxes just the same. And they don't mind starting wars if it helps their career.
Start talking about Support of X war in say the middle east, and suddenly your campaign funds magically are boosted.
Just what I thought, they're "discovering" corruption among officials considered to be less than loyal. If a bunch of people decide to oust Xi, they'll suddenly "discover" he's corrupt, too.
Worse than that, it is suicide to call out corruption except on those below you in the hierarchy
But the news said xi just purged corruption of their entire military arm? Does that mean it's working?
Exactly.
Also, they exaggerate their capabilities when they don´t want to act and down play it when they are about to do it.
As a civil engineer w/3+ decades of experience w/a gov't transportation agency in the northeast US, I have been following the Chinese infrastructure expansion fairly closely for quite some time.
Recently, the vast & pervasive amount of shoddy work due to corruption & incompetence has really become apparent due to the overwhelming obvious physical evidence of systematic failures all over China of all sorts of infrastructure, from hi speed rail to highways to utilities to bridges, as this infrastructure starts to age beyond a mere decade or so (there are gobs of you tube video's about this as well as online articles, many from engineering publications, going into far more detail). Imagine what China will look like as their infrastructure approaches the typical 50 year lifespan we always designed to in the US (often 100 years for major facilities).
So it should come as no shocking surprise whatsoever that the same endemic corruption & incompetence would permeate all aspects of Chinese society including finance & business (plenty of evidence of that as well recently) & of course the military. There might have been some hesitation to think the military was as bad as other aspects of Chinese society, considering the amount of saber rattling Chinese leadership does, & the consequences of failure, but apparently not.
It would be a Grave mistake to underestimate Chinese ability to correct these problems in less than a decade or so. The West (& it's Asian allies) should not let up their diligence in modernizing their militaries & forging strong alliances & mutual support treaties. Likewise, the west should continue to divest itself from dependence on Chinese manufacturing, especially for critical industries such as tech, vehicles, aerospace, etc. This is no time to get lulled into complacency.
So, one place China could look to expand it's ambitions is certainly eastern Russia. That's one country they Know they can beat! It would seem the rewards would be far greater than Taiwan (at least if decimated in a war).
The only problem is the capitalist addiction to cheap labor. If the wall street cronies would stop getting their dicks hard for Chinese labor maybe corporate america would follow especially seeing some of the more recent risks to their businesses i.e the zero covid disaster and said saber rattling from China. Chinese leaders want their cake and eat it too but it's hard for a communist to fully understand pure, unadulterated capitalism, because capitalism is overwhelmingly allergic to anything that harms the bottom line and they just don't understand that and I think they never will.
Xi Jinping has been trying to fight corruption since 2012, purging officals left and right. The latest news just show that corruption is inherent to the chinese political system and can't be reduced without extremely far reaching changes to the government, the kind of which Xi has already failed to implement in the past decade since he has been in power. There is little reason to believe anything will change in the next decade. Nonetheless, Chinas willingness to attack Taiwan should not be underestimated. Especially if Xi gets desperate and comes to the conclusion that a war might solve some of these problems.
I have been saying for months that President Biden should send a back door message to Xi pointing out to him that America would have no dog in any fight between China and Russia, should China ever decide to take back Mongolia.
👌
This was my thought too. I would hate to be in the Chinese military, be sent out with guns that jam, fake kevlar... yeesh.
I read that Bloomberg News article the day it was published (I am a subscriber). I'm glad you picked it up and now publicize its implications. I drew exactly the same conclusions.
Don’t assume that an invasion being detrimental or impossible to achieve for a nation means they will not attempt such an action.
They might, but I would like to ask you a question. Do you think Xi Xinping is willing to risk the same kind of humiliation Putin is currently experiencing? Because the real test is never whether it could work. It's always about whether it could be perceived as working. If China's military is so underprepared and undisciplined, could Taiwan even be invaded with any success? It isn't enough to win, they must win capably in such a manner as to make the world believe they are a threat to others as well.
*cough* Ukraine *cough*
Well said
@@valueradar3362
Ukraine has been decimated by Russia and when Russia decides they can sweep the entire country they will do so. There is a bigger game being played that we are not given the information to understand. Always remember this fact.
Napoleon learned that lesson the hard way. Russian winters are a bitch, huh?
Decades ago Deng suspected the same thing and used the invasion of Vietnam as a test for the PLA. Found out the hard way as entire battalions and armored brigades got lost even before they showed up to the theater of operation.
And the Vietnamese kicked their Red asses out of Vietnam!
The thing that the West needs to remember when it comes to a potential conflict with countries like Russia or China is they may be corrupt but they also place a much lower value on their soldiers' lives. In the west if 100 soldiers die, there's a massive press frenzy over how it could have happened. Russia/China just throw bodies at the problem. It's not the best solution, but it can solve problems a surprising amount of the time. The west has technological superiority at the moment, but its population base is fickle. Russia and China are two nations that historically don't start questioning their governments on a big enough scale to matter until everyone's starving to death.
v
An important thing to understand about xi's anti-corruption campaign is that it was never about weeding out corruption but instead about targeting his political opponents.
When it comes to military it is literally an anti-corruption campaign. You can’t use your military if your equipment is flawed
This is blatantly untrue.
Exactly. The corruption will remain because their entire system is broken. Even their basic judicial system is a dog and pony show
@@sd13533 dunno about the recent military purges, but many years ago it certainly started out that way
Using rocket fuel to cook food isn't corruption, that's a country who can't afford to feed it's own people.
I have had American friends and family who have reached out to me for years, while I've lived in Asia, asking about China's rising military might. I have told/reassured them for a long time that lack of experience, uneven force development and incompetence meant that "China would get its ass kicked."
This not only confirms, but reinforces my position. China would be better off focusing on policies that support and grow its newly emerged middle class than playing out military dreams and ambitions.
Thank you very much, I am an American, with a big family, so are in the military, and I am comforted by your words. I was worried of droves of highly skilled Chinese soldiers who had no respect for human life attacking Japan, Korean, Taiwan, and so on
Chinese can only fight wars with their own people... thats about it. These people dont even have the discipline to flush the toilet after they shit, and thats no exaggeration, ive seen it firsthand.
So dumb. So naive. You know nothing. China fought the US in Korea and in many ways crushed the US. To this day the US is still so ashamed of Korea it barely gets talked about, it's called the forgotten war for a reason. Wake up! War with China will be even worse this time around, don't take it lightly
Did combat experience stop France from getting steamrolled by the Germans in 3 weeks? Did combat experienced stop the IJN from getting demolished at midway by a far less experienced American fleet? Did combat experience help the seasoned Iraqis stop the fresh faced American led coalition? Such a tired take. People are so desperate to huff copium and believe that China isn't a threat that they most likely use this shit to their favor. Its funny because if you can read the Chinese white papers they actually downplay their capabilities compared to actual field performance, they're different from Russians because they don't feel the need to flex on armchair generals on RUclips and reddit.
When China was a poor country in the 1950’s they held the UN and USA forces to a stalemate in the Korean War. The Americans also didn’t invade North Vietnam during the Vietnam War because they were afraid of China and a million PLA soldiers entering the war. As far as “China would get its ass kicked” maybe that is why they are increasing their nuclear arsenal to about 1,500 nukes and developing other weapons like drones. They are not standing still and may soon reach a MAD situation with the USA. Remember when the Soviet Union had 50,000 nukes during the Cold War. Sure the Americans could destroy the Soviet Union during a war but the USA would also get destroyed as well.
"...we don't know, but Xi certainly does." *Actually* ... that's part of the problem with endemic corruption, it undermines confidence that the _leadership_ knows the extent of the problem or can rapidly survey the difficulties that need to be overcome. Afterall, if the reporting and inspection systems were intact, there wouldn't have developed this degree of disfunction.
Xi probably doesnt even know the whole extent either. There are two things going against china in reguards to information. The east asian concept of face and lying to look good for higher that is endemic to socialist/communist states.
Very true. The pikachu face Putin must had had when he found out his vaunted military was less than advertised due to the corruption from the ministry on down.
Good point. Hindsight and all that aside- i really wonder if Putin knew just how bad things were in the Russian military when he was debating whether or not to invade Ukraine.
If there is one thing heads of state REALLY hate, it's being embarrassed
I heard that the ccp only tells Xi the “good news” so he doesn’t have a meltdown 😂
The fact that something as central to the PLA's invasion plan as missiles are falling to graft shows some insight into the mindset of the PLA itself. You don't graft if you think you're about to go to war, you graft when you think "this is never getting used, I'll never get caught." If anyone knows that they're not ready, it's them.
I like your interpretation, but it's also possible that they believe there won't be a war during their careers not because of lack of capability, but because of lack of motivation.
The military might know that, but perhaps Xi doesn't. That's the problem with dictatorships, they are surrounded by yes men, afraid to tell the leader the truth. This is exactly why Putin decided to actually attack Ukraine
makes me happy to see that "made in china" also stands for poor quality in military matters
_,,When you are weak, make them believe youre strong. If you are strong, make them believe you are weak...."_
Sun Tzu, China's military bible lol..
Indeed. I would take such reports with a massive mountain of salt. It's in their best interest to lie about military strength. I can easily see a scenario where they build defective equipment on purpose just to leak the info later.
You dont have to be strong if your country makes bio weapons.
@@lightfm90China’s military Bible? He’s THE military Bible worldwide. If you’re any soldier or general or any military administrator you absolutely need to study Sun Tzu, he’s the best military masterminds out there and it’s amazing everything he said 2000 years ago is still very much relevant today.
China's military force play call of duty to simulate war. The US has seen war and our generals are battle tested and battle proven. Yeah man China can act weak or whatever, but they are weak so......
This cements my theory that countries who constantly show their "might" with great military parades on a regular basis are only strong until they have to use force instead of demonstrating it.
Cements your bias then. Not that you are wrong in this particular stance, but to apply this type of reasoning to solve problems is a recipe to failure.
@@Euduchaus For example france holds military parades and india too india does it even more in fact yet both have very capable and competent militaries.
military parades most of the time are about a especific historical military event in that country, some politician usings hem to make their army look strong its more circumstantial than anything and isnt related to the existence of them, flawed logicc
Most country's would struggle to invade any country, nato with America at the top have the capabilities and have proved it, as for the rest unless it's a neighbour or internal it's probably not possible, and before people say Taiwan is a neighbour it's quite a formidable opponent.
Korean war, (Vietnam)the "soldiers" poor Chinese farmers some barefoot, sent in midwinter attacks, with threats of being machine gunned, into wave attacks! ~100,000 died of frostbite! (look to the past, to see the future?)😮 How many treated, same way during COVID-19? 🤔🇹🇼💙🇺🇦
Here I thought that China exported all of it's cheap crap to the Walmarts in America... it's nice that they kept some for themselves.
*Thank you* , I needed that laugh!!
@@BV-fr8bf "Nothing left to do but smile,smile,smile..." ~ Grateful Dead
Hey, what are you saying, it’s the best they got, the highest quality… guaranteed ;)
Naw, this is the stuff rejected by Walmart and Amazon. Even TEMU won't touch the stuff.
Hell no they are all at amazon where I work. Republicans started trade with China, ie, Nixon admin and ever since they have sent jobs out of America to benefit the wealthy owners or top 1 percent
I think we should clarify that the communist China is known as the People’s Republic of China and the nationalist China, residing on the island of Taiwan is officially called the Republic of China. There are two Chinese states.
Taiwan was "invaded" by the ROC when the ROC retreated out of the mainland, huhuhuh. Earlier, the PRC and the ROC both had considered the possibility of Taiwan, former colony of Imperial Japan, to become an independent country like Singapore and Vietnam. Anyway, moral of the story: Chiang Kai Shek sucks.
Thank you. That is always mixed up by me and I bet by 3/4 or 7/8 of Americans.
I have seen abbreviations PRC and ROC. I'd rather not guess?
I've long been of the opinion that China is far less of a military threat than we have been lead to believe. I've felt that China really doesn't have much confidence in its military, which is why it is so skittish about using it. A authoritarian country like China loves to make an appearance of power, but actually using it scares them because if things go badly it could totally undermine the government. China hasn't fought a war in some fifty years and they lost that one, so there is virtually no one in their huge army with any real combat experience, most of the army is conscripts who are farmers and other rural living peoples. China loves their drills and huge formations, but those are not going to save them on the battlefield where things can change at a moments notice. Now we add the rampant corruption (which I'm not surprised by) and we can see China is really not ready to wage a war of any kind. That's not necessarily to say they couldn't be a tough opponent, but just that China isn't going out of its way to start a war they are not confident about winning.
Up until recently I would have disagreed with you. Some of hte defence white papers would have shown that China and the US had so many missiles that the opening two days of the war would have crippled both countries. Given their missiles aren't working... That changes things drastically.
You realise the US is not that far off?
@zaco-km3su Please explain further.
@@LordKasadoadUS can't win in Ukraine or Iraq. Ur IQ is pretty low
@@LordKasadoadHe can't
This has been the general attitude in the 7th fleet of the US NAVY for decades. First hand experience has shown many that the Chinese are basically all talk. It was, however, always in the back of our minds that they may actually back up some or all of the saber rattling. The fact that they overplay much of their military power is no indication of their resolve, and as we have seen in the past, overwhelming force is not necessarily a guarantee of victory.
Its not just talk, the drones in Ukraine are chinese. These stories are released as Bidens foreign policy positions are in shambles, disadvantaged in every theater, its obvious cover for the regime.
They are also all about face. Which is what worries me. When they provoke an incident (as they regularly do with freedom of nav patrols in the Natuna/West Phillipine Sea (the sea to the south of China) all it takes is one pilot to take the non-professional option and not back down to cause an incident that may escalate.
Yes but even as this guy pointed out, China is being backed into a corner. it's now or never and Biden is the weakest president we've had in a long time. I don't think they'll out right invade but a blockade is almost a certainty this year.
Well, Chinese did not lose in Afghanistan, Ukraine, nor Vietnam. Chinese know their Sun Tzu - they seek victory before battle, not vice versa.
Overwhelming force is what we have not them
Anyone familiar with the issues with property development in China would not be surprised to hear that the same type of issues are occurring with their military too.
Completely different issues.
Different issue and blown well out of proportion. Remember the same Russian-paid doomsayers loudly said China would be bankrupt in 2022 with Evergrande?
@@PS3Vids10 so this surprised you then?
It builds property too instead of having nothing like many wish.
The banks are failing, too.
Given the very poor state of readiness by the US Navy due to failed LCS programs, delayed Constellation class frigate building, and the slightly failed Zumwalt program, I have been greatly concerned.
This news is quite welcome and comforting indeed.
Vietnam kicked their ass in the 1970s. Some things never change.
Well it seems so 🤔
That's even after they kicked our ass
@@NathanielCampbell-l2rVietnam OP. Won in both fronts, against US and China.
As a close follower of China news and Simon’s channels. You and your channel move fast and accurate. And this came out just before the Taiwan election? Good job
He is western mouthpiece
If you believe this shit I can only imagine you watch NTD
@DK-ev9dg
He's western using his mouth to give a piece of his opinion, back up by the best source available.
Not gonna happen in prc hivemind propaganda.
@jamieflame01 buddy...you are literally in the anti China propaganda hive mind, you have no self awareness is all.
@jamieflame01 do you think China constantly pumps out anti American content like this? Do white people get hate crimed and called us gov to justify it? Did China go around trying to name a virus the American virus or the dem/repub virus?
It just shows that the people in charge of the rocket forces don't believe they'll ever, or at least not while they are liable for the failure, have to fire their rockets. It's not like a tank, truck, or plane where you expect it to actually do something on at least a semi-regular basis. Strategic rockets just get put into their silos and sit, get 'tested' then sit some more. Eventually they are replaced by newer rockets all with no real proof they ever worked or the silos could open quickly in an emergency.
That is a profoundly chilling comment on human nature. Its why I try not to think about fire extinguishers or airplane lifejackets.
Imagine e buying a car in the 1980s, putting it into a garage, leaving it there for decades, and then expecting its engine to start flawlessly some 40-50 years later with a single turning of the key. This is the problem of strategic missile forces. The US spends tens of billions of dollars each year just to keep its nukes in shape.
@@CZpersifun fact, WD-40 was made just for this exact reason! And another reason why the USA will always have an edge over anything in this dimension, and from what Im reading recently, in other dimensions!
I got a pretty good deal on a Chinese missile, but I had to get rid of it because it drove my water bill through the roof!
@@justicar347 What are the chances a similar situations exists in Russia.
How many channels do you have Simon 😭😭😭😭😭😭
Extraordinarily well written and researched episode. And in so little time. Hats off to Evan! This man deserves more than a quiet end slate credit, Simon!
He is overclever and China hater. Tell him to research 2B missing from pentagon and 1B worth of weapons missing in Ukraine then I would trust him.
His "research" amounts to quoting US propaganda 🤡
Well researched? They took one article from bloomberg and blew it up to mythic consequence lol
You've gotten the chinese trolls out and about, nice!
Lol they salty
As a Brit, I've always taken our low corruption for granted. It does happen, but it's almost always called out and is typically business fraud/expense scandals. I can't imagine the military being corrupt.
Corruption in the West in government usually takes the form of kickbacks on overpriced contracts; the work still gets done, just at an overinflated price.
Have you been living under a rock for the last 14 years? 😂 Our governments barely even trying to hide their efforts to funnel taxpayer money to their donors private companies anymore.
Then you definitely should read about how your nuclear subs were held together by super glue
Corruption does not stand out in the country where you are robbed daily at every single step you make. From the government to your neighbours kids. Every single day.
@@10secondsrule Yeah, people have different views on taxes. Some people would rather live like a Victorian than ensure basic standards. I'm actually in favour of taxes to fund basic services so don't see it that way.
The One Child policy caused parents to pick boys to preserve the family name and be financially taken care of in old age. That makes the boy family heir financially responsible for his parents and grandparents. If that heir dies, it’s a Saving Private Ryan situation, the PLA can’t fight a real war anyway.
That's one of their biggest problems. They have a one -son army.
And with all the money floating around over there now how many of these rich kids will want to fight and loose everything. Even moderate wealth will change the thinking.
@@bestestusernamethis is not even mentioning that India could take Tibet (or other lands) as an invasion of Taiwan (plus all the other islands Matsu, Kinmen etc) would take up most of the PLA resources.
@@TheFivegoodemperors India wouldn’t annex Tibet, they might liberate it however.
Worst case they turn it into an Indian puppet state.
@@TheFivegoodemperors India can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag. How the fuck are they gonna take Tibet?
I've never seen such a successful man wearing BCGs. Truly extraordinary.
Haven’t heard the term BCGs since I got out the Marines 😂😂
Common misconception: "Guan Shui" means fill it with water. It's a term meaning "to cook the books", it doesn't literally mean the rockets were filled with water. They were filled with a cheaper alternative that doesn't perform as well.
In terms of long range missiles that might as well be water. Poor fuel means they’ll land 10s to hundreds of miles off target.
It doesn't matter if the silo hatch can't even open 😂@@Taskarnin
Wasn't there something in the news a little while ago about Chinese military exports weren't working as advertised for their customers? This report on the corruption in the Chinese military didn't surprise me, but water in the rockets in place of fuel got me.
To be fair, the reporting comes from Radio Free Asia, which is self-admittedly a propaganda outlet. China's space achievements are very real.
I didn't realize how deep the corruption was in China's military.
真的有人这样讲吗？这个视频有讲吗？我听说是把火箭里的燃料拿来煮火锅，然后把水倒进去。我对燃料换水并不惊讶，我惊讶的是真的有白痴相信
Yeah claiming you can fill a solid block of epoxy like substance with water would get anyone with any understanding of rockets.
Or the part about using highly explosive rocket fuel to cook hot pot.
But I guess western audiences aren't that smart, to put it mildly.
That report was mostly false otherwise why do you see many countries still buying chinese hardwere? Indonesia just purchased a batch of anti ship missiles. You have to check the sources
I was a supply officer in our Navy, and there was a tiny bit of corruption on a personal level, like "I'll come and knock out those little welding jobs if you can get me a ten pound can of coffee..." We call it comshaw. But every man-jack on the ship was devoted to the mission, and corruption on a larger scale was dealt with swiftly and people lost their jobs and went to prison. I don't know how a communist country could ever hope to install that in its personnel.
Lol. You think there is no corruption in procurement? Corruption in the west merely looks different with bribes being comfy positions and stock options after leaving the service/politics.
100%
Was it compulsory? If you and your crew were there because you *chose* to be, that makes it infinitely more likely that you'll at least have some semblance of a damn to give about the mission. For someone without a choice, it is easy to understand why their regard for what they're doing is limited to "the bare minimum or less."
Americans: I was loyal to the military because if I wasn't, I would lose my job and go to prison. How can a Communist country instill that kind of loyalty in its citizens if they don't fear losing their jobs?
Also Americans: The Chinese government is so evil. If you don't cut your hair exactly like they tell you to, they'll drag you out behind the shed and sh∅∅t you.
So, which is it then? 😂
I gave the supply LPO a carton of newports for him to just expedite a parts request. Was the equipment broken? Yes. Was it "mission critical": No. But I wanted WEPS to get off my ass on why we weren't doing OCSOT at 2 AM.
Sure enough, we got the replacement part at the next port, was able to put it in, and we didn't have an empty chair at an op test. It's Win/Win/Win for everyone and it just cost me 25 bucks.
Makes sense. Pretending to have nukes has all the practical benefits of actually having them without the need to spend billions in upkeep
Its hard to build anything meaningful in a culture that legitimately thinks tricking and deceiving everyone you do business with is admirable (see also: The China Hustle).
We often fail to consider cultural differences when it comes to military capabilities but in places like Russia and China, their cultural proclivities will always undermine their ability to do anything at scale efficiently.
Yeah like being a fucking commie authority state that values no life and is pretty much genocidal
Too bad America is also starting to see deception as "entrepreneurial."
China has always been a society of conduct. They are so sensitive towards self-respect that they even fake their Casualties. The soldiers who sacrifice for their nation are just easily snubbed and Overshadowed by the Chinese Government for maintaining a prestige.
And since it's a authoritarian government, their families are never informed and the government can't even be questioned.
When I was in the Navy, I was pretty let down by something: our p3 orion Harpoon pylons had outdated "Kapton" wiring. This was "gun decked," as the harness swap should have happened when I was in middle school. It was a big deal, and ended up being a lot of work... but, at no point, did those pylons not work. The were almost equally combat effective in either configuration. Western corrruption was building them to begin with ... not their maintenace and use. That is the difference.
Recently our commando force blew a couple hundred million on purchasing a glorified quad. It's listed as lightly armoured, but uses your face to deflect bullets and our (listed as) unarmoured Mercedes cars had better armour. In fact this vehicle, called the Vector, is inferior in every way compared to its rivals. It initially ran on a twostroke moped engine, 1920's technology, then quickly adopted a stock Austrian engine when the Vector was about to lose the bid.
Turns out all shareholders in the company that makes the Vector, Defenture, are former officers of the specific units that purchased it....
With one exception, who is the Tiel based moped dealer who builds the damn things for them, who's known only for building inferior cheap quads that run on ancient twostroke engines.
@@nvelsen1975 Always have to love how corrupt Dutch policy makers are.
Corruption is building them to begin with, truer words have never been said, just look at the A10
@@North_Indian_ bot
Ni hao. How is the weather in Beijing?
Watch Perun's episode on corruption in militaries. It's a sobering reality check on just at how ungodly many levels theft, graft and financial manipulation can take place if it's the common mentality in the army. And the conclusion is that once corruption takes hold, it's from the top to the bottom. Everyone needs someone to cover for them. And those who cover want a slice too... And so on and so forth.
Corruption in missile forces is extremely concerning. They handle nuclear weapons
灌水 in Chinese (pronounced "guànshuǐ) usually means "irrigation". (It's also the name of a town in Shandong Province.) But the two characters (taken separately) mean "fill" and "water". And, most importantly for your report, "灌水" is also a common Chinese idiom for "artificially increasing weight to cook the books". My guess? The editors (reporters?) at Bloomberg don't speak Chinese. This suggests to me - someone with really basic Chinese - that all the speculation about actual H2O in Chinese rockets wildly misses the mark. I suspect it's more likely that one or more people with responsibility for China's rockets was caught "cooking the books." But using actual water to fill up rockets? My best guess is that's just poor translation.
So may so-called china experts who know neither Chinese characters nor Chinese cultures draw such a ridiculous conclusion based on the words translated by machines that the military power of the China is not competitive.😂. Is it that all the CIA spies sent to China have been caught? The intelligence capacity is so low 😅😅😅
Yes. The chances of missiles being fueled with water are pretty much nil.
Replacing other liquids with water is a common method of fraud, fuel and water would have approximately the same weight so it would be a relatively simple way to steal the fuel and not raise suspicions. Does not seem at all far fetched to me. Another meaning of those Chinese characters is "to inject water into meat to increase its weight" so it can also be read in a very literal sense of filling something with water for fraudulent purposes.
@@nathangriffiths6218Other channels have covered this with better information. Short version, liquid fueled missiles are not kept fueled and are sometimes rinsed out with water.
they drive tanks made out of paper mache and it surpsies you they put water in rockets hahahahaha
When i was in the navy, i had my chief describe the differences in corruption between our system and china/russia as roughly thus (its been almost a decade so im prob not remembering it word for word):
"Here, everyone is ripping off the system thru overcharging. The contractors, the agreements, the politicians, everyone is charging a dollar for what should be a dime, so every project, good, gun and mission costs 10x more than it should in reality. But it gets done. The boys get their guns, the mission is accomplished, the objectives met. Yeah, its bull#$%$ how much it costs, but whats needed is acquired.
In the east, they charge 10 the cost, make the gear crap quality anyways, and then steal it out of depots after the fact. Assuming they even actually made it in the first place."
Every country has corruption, but in the west, it means allot of palms are being greased. In china and Russia, it cuts deeply into strategic readiness and capacity.
I can only imagine how hard he is laughing about all this xp. semper fortis Senior.
"In the east, they charge 10 the cost, make the gear crap quality anyways, and then steal it out of depots after the fact. Assuming they even actually made it in the first place"
Nah. In China they charge ??? but probably not 10x, then do all the things you said.
In Russia, they charge 1x the cost, promise moon on a stick, and after failing miserably they fall back on the old and proven 1950s design that works as intended.
In India, they charge .1 of the cost, and then roll a magic die to see what happen. If they roll a crit, they somehow get everything they want.
Very different systems.
Argentinian joke: There is a politicians' gathering in the US and a Texan and an Argentinian become friends. The Texan invites home the Argentinian. It is a magnificent ranch. The Argentinian asks, "how could you afford to get this ranch?" The Texan takes him to his wall where hangs the picture of a bridge. "Building that bridge I made the money to build my ranch."
A while passes and the Texan goes to Argentina to visit his friend. His home is a great mansion. The Texan asks, "how can you afford this mansion?" The Argentinian takes him to his wall where there is an empty space. "By not building that bridge I made the money to build my mansion."
I've been saying for YEARS that China's military power is waaaaaaay over stated!
A good example of a microcosm is the videos of their tanks (in the field not on parade) you can clearly see the main gun wobble, as in, the gun isn't stabilized. This leads to 1 of 3 conclusions.
1. Corruption has lead to cheaply made tanks. The stabilizing funds "disappeared"
2. They can't stabilize the gun because they just don't have the funding for it. Because it's been coming to light that their economy isn't as big or stable as we have been told by them.
Or
3. They just don't know that is needs to be stabilized. Which is just incompetents on the part of their military and Ministry of Defence (or what ever the department is called)
This is EXACTLY what many people said about Russia before realizing hey underestimated Russia. Its the standard playbook for precursors to manufacturing consent and an appetite for war.
@@lancerevo9747 Overestimated*
@@lancerevo9747Russia never stopped it’s Soviet collapse. That’s why it’s always fighting wars with former Soviet states like Chechnya, Georgia, Tajikistan, Abkhazia, Moldova, Ukraine etc. To get back land/ports/infrastructure/logistics it lost with the Soviet Union fragmenting.
The PLA are also weak, failing to defeat Turkistan independence fighters in Xinjiang or capture islands like Kinmen right off the coast of Fujian province for 70+ years. If you can’t defeat what you call “separatism” you don’t have a capable military.
@@lancerevo9747the Russian military was overestimated before they invaded Ukraine. Who underestimated them? Most express thought they would finish the war in less than a month.
Agree and the US Navy budget is an absolute scandal based on inflating the Chinese threat. "Department of Navy spending for the fiscal year 2024 has a requested budget of $255.8 billion, an addition of $11.0B (4.5%) from the final budget for FY 2023, including supplementary funds." SLASH IT
The whole water inside the rocket sounds like a giant misunderstanding for me. Because if you know anything about rockets, you know in order to pressure tests their internal tanks, you do it with water. Not a volatile explosive.
If they are solid fuel rocket boosters though they will not be pressure testing the tanks?
Excellent episode and I agree that this corruption scandal in the PLA, while generating some amusing headlines, will likely have global geopolitical repercussions for years, if not decades, to come. Combined with China's ongoing economic woes and Beijing's seeming inability to get a handle on those, as well as mounting structural issues (a distinctly declining demographic situation) and it could well mean that the curtain will ring down on what was supposed to be the "Chinese century" far sooner than anyone ever expected.
Don't get your hopes up. China is growing at 5% it leads in wind/solar, 5G, industrial robotics, high speed rail etc. It economy shall recover keep in mind it let evergrande collapse in order to burst the housing bubble.
This is how armchair experts sold a dream of easy victory for Ukraine, today they are rolling on the floor begging for more aid after losing an unspeakable number of casualties. China is larger, closer, and Taiwan is smaller and isolated from land supply chains. Don't be silly twice, people.
Nobody predicted an easy victory for Ukraine. They predicted an easy victory for _Russia._
@lancerevo9747 I never heard a single person claim an easy victory for Ukraine. There's no reason to believe that China's military is stronger than Russias and they don't share a land border which instantly makes any invasion attempt 100x harder.
@@lancerevo9747Are you for real? Ukraine wasn't trying to take over Russia, Russia is trying to take over Ukraine. Ukraine has no choice but the defend itself just as Taiwan has no choice.
As a Canadian born in the PRC until the age of ten, I hope this would be one of a string of setbacks that will either bring the PRC to the table of global players as a responsible player or it could allow moderates and progressives that are left in the CCP to rebuild its powerbase and perhaps bring about a true political reform and transition in a more liberal form of government. Because if the CCP were to fall, the devastation that would befall my birth nation is something I shudder to imagine. I could see a return to the warlord era with each regional military commanders carving up China and wage war with one another for power and supremacy while the world simply watches because of how China has soured its relation with the world.
As a Chinese living in Canada, I have to tell you that white people will never want to see China becomes No 1 super power in the world, they don't want to see a lot of Chinese people become rich. You know white Canadian even complained rich Chinese immigrants made Canadian housing market become unaffordable! You need to understand Chinese culture and history better. China's rising is unstoppable, and Chinese government and people are capable to fix these corruption issues! If you think Chinese army sucks, you really underestimate your birth country and your root!
As horrible as it is to consider, the demographic situation is truly cataclysmic.
Combined with energy and food fragility, the prospects are indeed terrifying.
It is harder to conceive of a good scenario.
I am so sorry about your homeland if it is indeed the case.
With all that you have said, is the very reason I hope the CCP leadership would see the reality facing China currently and in the foreseeable future so that they would wake up from their dreams of regaining the former glory of the Chinese Empires that never was and instead hunker down and start rebuilding a foundation for responsible governance so that the people of China can have hope again and start having children again, because who would want to bring a new life into a world of turmoil and uncertainties. However with the CCP's insatiable need for absolute control just like sand in the hand, the harder you try to hold on to it with brute force, the faster it escapes from you. In the end I don not see a peaceful transfer of power of any kind instead all I see is violence in the future. I may just be a pessimist but that is what I foresee with the information I have. Yet I hope against hope and wish upon the star that is not the case and I may one day see a China that i can be proud of.@@iddomargalit-friedman3897
yeah true
@obliviousxconfused I'm not sure if you are a real Chinese, or you may be brought into the believing of "Chinese government is bad and evil" after hearing MSM stories. You need to understand what Chinese government has achieved in last 45 years (since 1978), you should be proud of how much people's life have been improved in such short period of time! There's no perfect society and China is too big having so many people living inside it. There are still a lot of things to be done, luckily the government is on the right track. Even the US and western countries have corruption or wrongdoings in their government, it's impossible to have 100% corruption-free society! Chinese government has already put a lot of efforts to make the society more fair and try to take care of everyone regardless poor or rich. You should look at documentary about poverty alliviation in China (ruclips.net/video/dcF_WB--P0U/видео.html), you'll find out how bad the western media is. Western media doesn't need to tell the truth about China's development, they just want to slander China, destabilize China, etc...
In short, you should be open-minded about what happen in China, and remember there's no a single country in the world really care about Chinese people destiny, only Chinese government does!
The bad thing is they will certainly jump at the first opportunity to prove themselves, once they are capable.
Demographics of an aging population without youth will close the opportunity window. Also, China does not appeal to inmigrants.
There will be no other opportunity, China will go the way of France. A nuclear power incapable of projecting conventional warfare abroad.
They have the opportunity in the red sea to show their naval ability but they have chosen to pay houthis not to shoot at their ships instead. they have ships in Djibouti that can help but bribery is a cultural thing.
Demographics and no young replacement population have already removed the oppotunity window
As I've said before, I really don't think China ever had the intention of actually invading Taiwan. The threat of doing so is enough. That and forcing various countries to choose them rather than Taiwan has the result they require.
Then would it be safe for Taiwan to seek official recognition at the UN as its own "country" (regardless of whether the name of this country includes "China" or not)? It sounds like it's safe...
@@edisrafehtable Not sure, that would be a big move. I don't believe China have the intention of invading Taiwan as I said, but something big could change that. The way China is collapsing so fast could also change things and make them more desperate.
As an Australian this is a tremendous good news day. Our nation last year started taking steps towards building a navy and airforce to turn itself into the regional power it’s perceives itself to be. Also an expansion in army personnel and equipment. Everything has been upgraded. And new nuclear subs and light carrier force capabilities, being procured over the next decade all to protect ourselves from china, this news certainly makes it appear that with this new swing in looking after ourselves instead of crying to America every time someone says something mean, we could well dominate china. Which is only a positive for global trade in the South Pacific region.
既然中国军队如此腐败且不堪一击，那么在你们担心什么？
另外我还想问一下中国侵害过哪个国家了？你看看过你们自己的历史了吗？是谁在侵害世界？
我作为中国人几十年来每天都能看到类似新闻，不是中国威胁他国，就是中国即将崩溃。中国既是威胁又要崩溃？几十年来每天如此。你有脑子吗？你不觉得的矛盾吗？你们的媒体有几句话是真的？
事实就是，中国经济保持了40年的高速增长，又未对其他国家进行入侵。我们越来越不关心你们的想法，因为我感觉你们西方人越来越束手无策。诋毁无济于事。
Trouble is , we won't have the subs until when...2033?
As an American, I want our allies to be able to defend themselves without needing our help. It's like a feedback loop: having stronger allies makes our nation stronger also.
And given recent shakiness in our own internal politics it's best that our allies have credible defense allowing them to stand on their own in case that becomes necessary.
And our allies aren't out to build empires so stronger allies makes war less likely. "Peace through strength" is more than just a slogan.
Whiteboi dream
On that we agree, stronger allies, stoner unity
The problem with China trying to eliminate corruption is that in China every level of government from the local officials to the President are relying on the corruption of those at the lower levels for income and compelling them to corrupt actions. And the local officials do the same to the individual citizens, and citizens learn that that's just how life is, and when they get any power (like becoming officers in the Military) as far as they're concerned it's just how the system works and it's their turn to get their share and this is what they've been working toward for most of their career. It's not just endemic, it's compulsory.
Wow, communist's built feudalism.
True, corruption is deeply rooted in their culture. You only have to live there for a year to see it and even have to take part in it yourself to function there. Even those supposedly purging the corruption are certainly also corrupt themselves.
Hit the nail on the head, i ran a foreign marketing agency in China for 10 years and we had to play the corruption game to be able to get any sort of local business (bribes, kickbacks, under-quoting project proposals just to win bids knowing we had no way to deliver a quality product but who cares as long as we got paid, cookin' the books, you name it.) Having no scruples is a pre-requisite, not the exception.
Even our office cleaning lady was in on the corruption game, hiring her buddies from the countryside to do the work while she went to get other gigs. She only got caught because I came in super early to the office once and found some random kid mopping the floor, turns out it was her friends son.
@@milfhunter8887 I was slightly more fortunate. When our company was considering doing business in China I investigated the legal framework and found that laws regarding the corporate structure of businesses with any foreign investment were fundamentally contradictory. IE, no way to comply with all of them at the same time because some require things that others forbid.
And I had heard the stories of my great^3 grandparents in Russia, and knew damn well that kind of contradictory-law situation can only exist when local officials have their hands out for bribes to "help" you through the "problems" you'll encounter and their higher-ups allow and encourage it. So on my recommendation the company said "no thanks" and we escaped the trap.
Since then I've kept an eye on China. There've been no signs of improvement. In fact the contrary.
@@loot6 Lol there's corruption in every government across the world, to say its part of Chinese culture is absurd. The US, UK, etc. have some of the most corrupt politicians on the planet.
I just read that Russia and China held war games and china's equipment fell apart consistently. Tanks with wheels popping off the tracks etc. I came to the same conclusion, that china's military capabilities being shown to be much weaker than expected will result in big changes on the diplomatic front.
Their gdp never recovered to pre pandemic levels
@user70331 yes this is also a good point! Couple that with the fact that china's economy is interdependent and intertwined with America's and it's not a good picture for them. The chinese can only rock the boats of their trade partners so much and if America's elections result in a Trump victory there will be political will to resist Chinese expansionist policies. In that event I would bet that Taiwan will still be independent in the years to come...and I'm not a betting man.
Sounds like maybe they've studied "The Art of War". Beijing Biden should have a read.
They still have nukes. That’s all they need to back diplomacy.
Made in China, what did you expect?
"Where you are strong, pretend to be weak." - Sun Tzu
"NO country with the Party dictatorship has avoided economic disaster.' - Sun Bin
@@panan7777 Singapore, malaysia, indonesia, spain, portugal and a long list of other party dictatorships begs to differ
I've believed that for some time now. Given how corruption has led to tofu dreg not just in buildings, but also infrastructure, manufactured goods, hell even a lot of the food and drink, it seems not only reasonable but likely their military is affected just as much. I mean, to think that China has buildings falling apart, and roads collapsing and EV cars blowing up regularly, but that their military machine wouldn't be affected by any of the sort is ludicrous.
So much cope. Look at your own country...
Nyc has had buildings suddenly catching on fire and random fucking collapses but we ain't calling that shit cookie crumble buildings are we? We make our houses out of fucking plywood and wet paper. Fucking christ.
@@Drownedinbloodthe last time a building in America collapsed like a video from LiveLeak was in 2021. America averages a colossal infrastructure failure once every decade. China averages one a year. Yeah, America fucking sucks, but I would pick any other nation in Asia besides the stans before China.
@@Drownedinblood We have, and the U.S looks like a utopia by comparison.
@Vaeldarg ....you been drinking and smoking something fierce.
“Had the order ever come down, the missiles would be unable to escape their silos.” You sound a bit like Frederick Forsyth! That is the highest compliment I can give
I must admit that when Simon talks I really benefit setting the playback to 0.75x
i set captions on, and speed to 1.25x. 😅
I like his talking speed. I'll set it to 2x while I'm working on something else but with some other narrators even at 2x speed it's too slow. Just in general I'm very glad that youtube allows us to controll the speed we watch/listen to a video!
Awesome video Simon thank you for sharing.
Surely the ‘leaked intelligence’ needs to be questioned as well.
It's so consistent with all other intelligence the US and its allies have gathered (most of which they don't publish). Western military commanders know way more about China's capabilities than they tell the press. And this is highly consistent with what they know otherwise they wouldn't play it up so much.
I'm an American living in China. The disappearing of top generals was pretty big news here, though obviously anything questioning the readiness of the military is not being reported on. However, I did hear that the rockets being filled with water rather than fuel might be due to a bad translation. 溉水 (guàn shuǐ) roughly translates to manipulating accounts or figures (i.e. "cooking the books"), but literally translates to "crops" and "water". So it might have been a translation issue where the Chinese were talking about cooking the books but the translation ended up with "water" and that is where the rumor about rockets filled with water came from. There is no way of knowing for sure, but things get lost in translation all the time. Like how western media started reporting on the "social credit system" based on a bad translation of a CCP internal document. The social credit system does not exist, I can tell you that one for sure.
Your statement is dismissed as propaganda until you decide to leave China and post a video. When you're in a safe place feel free to watch actual information. Personally I'll trust history and the United States rather than someone trying to poke tiny holes in a blow out news story on the heels of several disappearances.
Serpentza and Uncensored China are good places to start for those of us who want to know more from people who lived in China.
There is no social credit system as people imagine it but there are various efforts at different levels developing it. But it is low tech and fragmented. There's no Draconian digital citizen score hovering over you like some dystopian horror film.
Somebody gets it@@flamespear86
I always get nervous around these subjects cause, while I know China does have issues, I also know that there is a long history of issues being exaggerated or simply made up by white supremacists and kin.
@@gearhead743 its fun reading this kind of thread looking for the chinese propagandist. found you!
Iv been trying to tell this to people forever. your military is as good as its experience. As bad as it is… There is a benefit to constantly being at war. That is we know what we’re doing
The US understands this.
Also it's hard to justify their defense budget if the military not used in active conflics.
@@Sweet-Rat-Milktrue because as soldiers, we do not see a lick of that money
Taiwan also doesn't have any military experience.
@@tarikrobot8568 Given Taiwans intl allies, it doesn’t need to.
@@Mindgoblin5 True, the bulk of the budget goes to military contractors.
The elites all always look out for each other.
In a country, where there is only one policy, there is bound to be widespread corruption..
If you can't change people's minds or opinions, then you can pay them for favours even if it contradicts that person's belief or faith
Given the whole "Not being taken seriously by surrounding nations" it bothers me that this could be a monumental double bluff.
Respect to this channel, keep taking in these topics please.
Ever since China's rise and recognition as a potential threat I've always thought of it as a house of cards and probably not all that if push comes to shove. Internal competition pushes the envelope, one party states are always limited. Formidable, but limited
Same as the USSR, at our peak of our fear of them they had become a paper tiger due to corruption same as China. By the 80s there was hardly a single USSR combat unit that was actually combat effective and their best technology was far behind ours. Now in the early 70s and 60s they were a serious threat
Indeed, good sirs, indeed
China's demographic collapse is going to do them in.
Probably Russia's, too. Which has only accelerated with this war that's not only killed many young men, but driven even more of them out.
China= chihuahua
a few years ago my friend went home and found two guys robbing her house, she ran to a neighbours house and called the police who were able to attend quickly.... not only were the guys still there, but one pointed a fake gun at the police at got shot 3 times. I think about that regularly.... don't point a fake gun at someone with a real one that knows how to use it.
Don’t forget Sun Tsu. Pretend to be weak so that your enemy becomes arrogant.
But China is pretending to be strong, with its showing military force,
Yes, Taiwan pretends to be weak in the face of its arrogant aggressor.
I never hear about these things in the mainstream news, I always come to you for the real updates 🙌🏻
He literally used CNN and Bloomberg as sources.
@@phhdvm And Radio Free Asia, which made me laugh pretty hard. Waiting for Epoch Times sources.
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” -sun tsu
We all know that’s what China and Russia do. They may look big and scary especially on a map, but deep down neither of them even have a functional military and logistics capabilities due to corruption.
"If you are a fool, stop quoting me out of context."
-Sun Tzu
@@fiarandompenaltygeneratorm5044 "Sounds gay tbh"
-Sun Tzu
@@uraniumcranium2613 "Only closeted homosexuals use the word 'gay'. Guard your backside from them." --Sun Tzu
@@uraniumcranium2613 "Beware of those who say 'gay.' They live in closets. Guard your backside from them." --Sun Tzu
As a Taiwanese and just most of the people living in Taiwan. We never underestimate what China is capable of. We do, from time to time, mock them but that's how it is in a free society.
Purging in the communist party is a tradition, this is something that most people in the West do not understand. They immediately think there is an ongoing chaos in the communist party. The CCP has just gone more stable, which is obviously, not in our interest. People who have been following the Cross-Strait relations for a very long time have learned that reports about the CCP from "an unnamed US intelligence source" have most of the time remained not as factual as expected.
It is better to be rich and with your people than to be slaves of the English, half dead - half beggars. Look at Ukraine. Until recently, it was a rich country (at the level of France and Germany) and a population of 52 million people. But they decided to betray their brothers and came under the control of the British. Now they are extremely poor and essentially extinct.
Let the westerners consoom their daily propaganda don’t confuse things
I hope your people are ready.
Taiwan #1
台湾人想的可真美好，赖赖能干满1年算我输
their abilities have been greatly overestimated
That is a very odd conclusion.
The idea that corrupt dictatorial regimes make logical military decisions when facing a crisis is definitely an interesting one.
Taiwan isn’t a crisis for them, yet
It's more like during urgent decisions it's harder to make bad mistakes. Like during COVID the dictatorial governments are capable of rolling out lockdowns faster and more strict than democratically elected and operated governments.
Taiwan is necessary to completely cement the CCPs legitimacy as China's true government, utterly failing at their invasion of Taiwan would be disastrous for the CCP, but at the end of the day Taiwan is just a trophy on the shelf for China and they aren't third world dictators a government that has lasted as long as the CCP isn't so foolish as to burn itself to the ground for a trophy.
The american belief that „everyone else is weak and has a terrible military compared to us“ is heavily flawed and has been proven so many times to be the opposite case, but americans dont care they just lie their way out of everything
The big problem for China is most families only have one child/son, witch means for every soldier who dies, one family become childless. It would cost maybe up to a million deaths to invade Taiwan, so it unlikely China would survive it. Taiwan is perfect for defense with high terrain and being an island.
And addition to that, Taiwan has US backing. Even though it’s unofficial, US simply would not give up since they have tight grip on the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
And let's not forget that the US and Taiwan are not in some kind of bubble. The Philippines, Japan, Australia and South Korea are certainly not going to stand idly. Not to mention, would they REALLY trust that rivals India, Russia, and even Vietnam wouldn't think about taking advantage of certain border disputes while their military is distracted elsewhere?
Chinese leaders have never had a problem with using their citizens as cannon fodder. We saw that clearly in Korea, Vietnam and also (in a slightly different vatiation) Tiananmen Square.
I hope you're not the only child, because you seem to suggest western families have more than one child so they can sacrifice one to the war machine.
The CCP has never cared about losing people in a war. Check out what they did in Korea if you doubt it.
This might be part of why Xi has recently made more overt statements about seeking to reunite with Taiwan peacefully: doing it militarily might not be as much of an option as once thought
Well what is Xi doing about it other than bully and harass Taiwan? Would anyone willingly join an organisation which stoops to that. He is a fool if he thinks the Taiwanese will embrace such tactics. It serves as a stark warning of what life would be like under China. Indeed it is “Hong Kong today , Taiwan tomorrow”.
China should clean up its own back yard first as it is nothing like the free and democratic Taiwan as a place to live in except for the officials who use their position to extort money from others. Taiwan is a wonderful and safe little country. Certainly all countries have their crime but Taiwan is a most peaceful place with a wonderful police force that are helpful to those in need. I have even ridden in a police car. We had lost our way so the police put us in their car and took us. Would this happen in China and indeed many other countries?
If Taiwan is taken over, the first thing that will happen is that China will flood the country with mainlanders who will import their own culture rather than adopt that of Taiwan. The Taiwanese will become second class citizens in their own land.
PLAs Rocket Force Is like Chinese goods....works without accuracy and always break down !! 😂😂