Why Are There So Many Wars at the Moment?
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- Опубликовано: 30 май 2024
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Wars have dominated the news cycle in 2023, and reports are suggesting that this year has seen the most regional conflicts for decades. So why is this happening? What are the factors that are instigating these conflicts? And how might this change in 2024?
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1 - www.bloomberg.com/opinion/art...
2 - www.iiss.org/en/publications/...
3 - www.rescue.org/sites/default/...
4 - geneva-academy.ch/galleries/t...
5 - www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/202...
6 - www.crisisgroup.org/latin-ame...
7 - page.globalinitiative.net/oci...
8 - press.un.org/en/2023/sc15516....
9 - www.visionofhumanity.org/conf...
10 - www.reuters.com/world/humanit...
11 - reliefweb.int/report/world/gl...
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Context
01:33 Territorial Disputes
03:31 Authoritarianism
04:55 Organised Crime
06:03 Armed Non-State Groups
07:03 Climate Change
08:34 2024: What Next?
10:21 Brilliant
Instability in one region breeds instability in others.
Opportunistic leaders try to exploit distracted enemies whilst another war is ongoing.
Yep. That’s the reason the escalation in Palestine and Israel worried me so much at the beginning
But every time we ( USA) step in to settle things down we get called colonists and imperials. We don't do anything and we are called apathetic to the suffering of others...
Seriously I wish I was a midget and let the tall people deal with their own problems as I live in the enchanted forest away from the riff raff.
We're seeing that in authoritarian leaders looking to stretch the U.S. ability to respond to conflicts very thin. It started with China over Taiwan, then Russia over Ukraine, then the Muslim World over Gaza & its support for Israel. With that knowledge, you'd think Putin, Xi, Jong Un, and the Ayatollah would be pushing for Maduro to send his troops into the "New Venezuelan Province of Essequibo." And that's not also taking the ongoing American problems of border security amidst one migrant caravan after another, as well as the drug trade, and fears over the return of The Donald.
Exactly! This is why, if the US flies apart around the November 2024 Presidential election. Taiwan will get invaded, shortly followed by NKorea making their move. I wish the two highly polarised faction in the US knows what they put on risk if they don't keep it together
One thing that often gets overlooked is Leadership; We're at this wierd time where most of the antagonistic actors seem to have leaders that are aging out, have shaky domestic support or at the end of their tenure, so they're incentivized to get into conflicts to prolong their posting or make a bid to cement their legacy while the usual pillars of stability are either more concerned with domestic affairs, reluctant to engage in conflict or have ulterior interests. Case in point your three major powers (US, Russia and China) have leaders that are over the age of 70. Its a really wierd world where Japan's PM is younger than all of them.
also the rise of right wing politicians/leaders.
@@momytik Yes, the Papua conflict is an armed conflict.
Honestly kinda encouraging, it means that the period of intense war will end sooner than later and that it's just a passing trend, not a downward spiral
true... old people in politics are bad news
Global governance needs to be rethought... and we need to have a global conversation about it asap. Subs like r/Globaltribe are trying to get that done but a lot more is needed.
I feel economic issues are also a factor. The post pandemic economic slump is potentially the worst economic disruption since the great depression.
And desperate economic environments breed desperate political moves. The great depression lead to WW2 just as much as WW1 did.
Well put 👏🏼
It's also Russia and Iran have finished preparing for the war they want because they are sliding out of relevance as Democracy rises in the world, though the democratic sliding is also causing them to be bolder about it.
tin foil hat time but i think the numerous ways all our once favorite companies have slowly turned to essentially organized crime is not getting a quarter the attention it really needs, and i think a lot of conflicts are a distraction from the bigger problems leering overhead, from pollution to outright scams, to theft, to falsehood, to anti competition anti consumer, shoddy materials, ever growing poisons in our food and water supply, and god knows what else, I really think we need to collectively step back and reflect on where we all went wrong, rather than blame each other for what a small but growing number of evil people do at our expense, we get screwed from birth to death in so many unnoticeable ways, until you start seeing more and more of it, that is. Doesn't matter what country when we all use the same couple hundred companies' products and resources, and they realize we don't have other options. we have been slowly becoming priced out of basic necessities, basic comforts, basic fucking any sense of stability in most of the world. Little by little the disparity grows, and the trash piles up. It's depressing to take it all in just how fucked we are as a species, let alone a society.
@@TheOmegaXicor Democracy rising? 😂😂 is that a joke? There's a significant rise in neo-nazi and authoritarian groups. Democracy certainly isn't on the rise
I wouldn't downplay Great depression.
People were hanging themselves, literally starving, entire generation was decimated.
In 2008 crisis was also insane, educated people were forced to word at walmart, CVS just to survive people lost their homes, life savings, it was absolutely grim, not nearly as much as great depression but it was huge.
Today US barely anyone is affected, it's nothing like 2008 crisis - business as usual, go to work as usual, some people were laid off but found work just as quickly. I know few people who's livelihood was annihilated in 2008, but today it's just business as usual for them.
In real crisis car prices would slump, not skyrocket - otherwise who are all those people buying up luxury cars in bulk?
Recovery was very impressive considering what we went though could objectively be much worse, but governments and monetary policy makers handled it incredibly.
Russia is affected a lot more than EU and US, because of combined covid+war+sanctions, but situation is still tolerable with couple of percent GDP decline as a result, they remember far scarier economic shocks in recent history.
As a costarrican I’m usually excited when our country gets mentioned but it’s very much true about the rise of violence and organized crime here. The main of it is our newest president making some funding cuts including defunding a lot of border security, a couple of months ago a gang member killed a cop something that has happened very rarely here and is a very bad sign. The moment organized crime believes they can overpower the state is when things begin to escalate rapidly
Sup brotha I’m on here too
Hello fellow Costarrican!
Hopefully your country stays safe. I’ve heard it’s the safest in central America
@@smartindian8500 it has been for a while and in many metrics it was considered safer than a few developed countries. That safety and stability needs maintenance and the current government is failing at that
Costa Rica is being denazified. Hold tight
I miss the good old days where we didn't live in a Hearts of Iron IV mod.
I miss the days when we aren't living in a literal satirical world.
I was thinking of my time playing Crusader Kings, but yeah, Hearts of Iron is a better choice. 😄
Trump is one of the reasons why everything is fucked@@LeagueofLegendsClassicHubFail
@@LeagueofLegendsClassicHubFail ruclips.net/video/sH0Qda32IKM/видео.htmlsi=HE8aJT7V8wGBopga
We've always lived in a world filled with conflict. You just didn't notice it because you where a kid.
I live in South Africa. But with a rise in crime I feel like I am in a war zone or something. The fact I'm in one of few countries in Africa without war doesn't make me proud at all.
Bro, be happy SA isn't in conflict or a war
Like what have you seen?
Unlike the VAST, VAST majority of other African nations, South Africa is a relatively stable nation despite its high crime. We haven't had a rebellion or an insurgency since the Rand Rebellion in 1922.
South Africa will be a failed state if voters keep around the politicians who profit from electrical blackouts.
@@TheCrimsonS4ge Yeah but it's still a very poor country with bad quality of life and very high crime and disease rate
Come on yall, the transition out of a unipolar system and the last decade of America's retreat from its Hegemon status is clearly a factor in the rise in wars and stability. The rate of conflict tracks with other periods of polarity shift (the fall of the USSR in the 90s)
This just shows how good the world has it to live under Pax Americana, the period since WW2 where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place, and liberal democracies would have much less influence in the world.
With that said, the US is still the Global Hegemon by far, and Pax Americana is still here. The US has the largest economy, strongest military by far, most political, cultural influence, most technological power, dominates in soft power. Economy is the only aspect of power that China MIGHT pass the US in anytime soon
I am very surprised that the video only made a brief mention of this at the beginning. Other countries not fearing American intervention and Russian sanctions failing to do much have emboldened many.
That's party true, but a rising China isn't helping matters and as we know, there's poor leadership from the major powers like the EU and US on the global scale, which at least in the case of the EU, they have limited powers in what they can do as most forign policy powers are at a country level not EU level, then we have the US which is becoming more isolated.
There's a lack of leadership on the world stage which the only powers that are credible to do that are the EU and US, but the EU would need to speak with a single voice and the US would need to be more engaged in trying to stabilise the world, which both seem unlikely in the near term, which means, things are likely going to get worse.
@@paul1979uk2000 Poor leadership for us. But completely working as intended for the ruling class. Nothing will change unless we change the system itself to prioritize the common people, rather than the most economically important.
@@paul1979uk2000Show me how the US can lead. We’ve been in non-stop wars for decades and we’re now supporting an ethnic cleansing. Should we keep leading?
As messed up as it sounds, this level of wars is the norm across history. We all just got used to the US being the only millitary power that mattered, but over the last 30 years China, Russia, Iran and other have stepped up, which also forces Europe to step up as we’ve seen with German rearmament
yea thats the truth. we have lived in probably the best times ever since WW2 ended.
The German realmente is a joke just like Europe
There will be many more over the next 50 years, grand solar minimum has begun and is expected to "peak" in 2050.
The colder temperatures and mega droughts that come with it, will bring an explosion in energy prices and food shortages.
World war two was right in the middle of the last drop in solar activity.
@@LilBlAcK76 And yet, a popular opinion was that the world was a mess that was going downhill. You cannot properly understand the present without knowing the past.
The United States, along with Europe, used its hegemony and tried to turn countries into powder. The list is known
i remember when 2016 was considered a bad year beacuse of some political stuff, ah i miss those innocent times
this is what happens when these bad political stuff happen in 2016. We get an illegitimate President doing horrible things. DOn't you prefer the no new war President prior, the one who should of won.
@@slewone4905
we can't go back.
I clown on those fools who called 2016 "the worst year in history", those idiots clearly had no idea what they were talking about, especially considering what the world is going through now
I'm sure Trump's $7.8 trillion in deficit spending has nothing to with high inflation, high interest rates, and economic instability.
Biden made more debt than that. A lot of p45 spending was stimulus and getting the militairy up to snuff.
Let’s hope that 2024 will be a more peaceful year
*let's hope that 2024 will be a more dangerous year
I hope so too.
Unfortunately though, signs point to current conflicts getting worse.
The Gaza war is nearing its end, chances are hamas is gonna use some drastic measure like detonating a bunch of bombs to collapse the tunnels and maximize casualties or something.
And the Israelis might flood the tunnels or maybe the raze the entire region to the ground to make sure the Palestinians can't return. The seawater would make the land totally useless and maybe dangerous to build on.
The Ukraine war, Russia still has a few more weapons it hasn't fully utilized yet if the Ukrainians get more land, and obviously it would be terrible if the Russians gained more ground. Or it could just stay at a standstill while thousands die every month.
The situation in Ethiopia is still shaky and could lead to yet another war, either a civil war like the last one, or maybe with a neighbouring coastal country, or maybe with Egypt or the Somalian population.
Basically all the major conflicts have mostly only gotten worst.
depends if they let the rightful person win the election.
@@mtaufiqn5040 Why should you want a dangerous time? You want your price of fuel and food to rise? Do you hate yourself? OK maybe that is a you problem.
@@drscopeify because like it or not, we are heading to that direction, humanity is a lost cause
There's one huge factor that you didn't mention. There is a huge denial of history causing people to lash out in anger at the wrong side of conflict. The world is just generally more stupid than it has ever been. People refuse science, history, and facts on a staggering scale. Today popular opinion is treated as more valid than the reality of things.
With all due respect, none of that is new
@Delmworks not new, but much much worse than it has ever been.
🔥THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the last age in which God saves man from the destruction of this old world"
(God incarnate is called Christ, and Christ is the human body clothed by the Spirit of God. He is the incarnation of the Spirit. He has both normal humanity and full divinity. Whether human or it is His divinity, both of them submit to the will of the Father in heaven. The Spirit is the spirit of Christ, which means the divinity. This is what all people must understand. The spirit of the work of the Holy Spirit is to save man, and for the sake of God's own rule. Since God became flesh, He realizes His spirit within His human body, that His human body is sufficient to carry out His work. Whether it is the Spirit of God or whether it is Christ, both are God Himself, and He does the work He should do and fulfills the ministry He should perform.)
Almighty God said
GOD incarnate is called CHRIST, and CHRIST is the flesh clothed by the SPIRIT of GOD. 🙏
This human body is not like any human being in the flesh. This difference is because CHRIST is NOT made of FLESH and BLOOD; He is the incarnation of the SPIRIT. He has BOTH NORMAL HUMANITY and FULL DIVINITY. 🙏
No man possesses His divinity. His normal humanity sustains all His normal activities in the human body, while His divinity accomplishes the work of God Himself. Whether it is His humanity or His divinity, they both submit to the will of the Father in heaven. The SPIRIT is the SPIRIT of CHRIST, meaning the GOD HEAD. Therefore, His SPIRIT is GOD HIMSELF; this SPIRIT will not INTERFERE with His OWN WORK, and He cannot possibly do anything that would destroy His own work, nor will He utter any words that are contrary to His own will. ☀️
Therefore, God incarnate will absolutely never do any work that interferes with His own governance. This is what all people should understand. The INTENT of the WORK of the HOLY SPIRIT is to SAVE MAN, and for the SAKE of GOD'S OWN RULE. ☀️
Similarly, the work of CHRIST is also to SAVE MAN, and it is for the WILL of GOD. Since GOD HAS BEEN INCARNATED, He REALIZES His SPIRIT within His HUMAN BODY, that His HUMAN BODY is SUFFICIENT to CARRY OUT His WORK. 🙏 Therefore, ALL the WORKS of the SPIRIT of GOD were REPLACED by the WORKS of CHRIST during the INCARNATION, and at the CORE of all the WORKS during the ENTIRE INCARNATION was the WORKS of CHRIST. ☀️
It CANNOT be MIXED with WORK from ANY OTHER ERA. And SINCE GOD BECOMES FLESH, He WORKS in the IDENTITY of His FLESH; since He COMES in the HUMAN BODY, He thus FINISHES in the HUMAN BODY the WORK He has to DO. ☀️
Whether it is the SPIRIT of GOD or CHRIST, both of them are GOD HIMSELF, and He DOES the WORK that He should DO and PERFORMS the MINISTRY that He should PERFORM. 🙏
From "The Spirit of Christ is Obedience to the Will of the Father in Heaven"
Fulfillment of "When I looked up, someone handed me a book wrapped in a scroll. I opened it and I read on both sides the prayers, sorrows, and curses." (Ezekiel 2:9-10). ... "His garment was stained with blood. He was called the "Word of God" (Rev. 19:13).
The kingdom He brought down and set up in the highest in the sky so that it can occupy His creation in the universe and engrave on it the entirety of His Holy name "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD" 💐 fulfillment of (Mat. 16:18) "And I say as for you, you are Peter, on top of this rock I will build my Church, that even the power of death will not prevail over it.". ... and "The Letter to the Church in Philadelphia" (Rev. 3:7-13). ... And fulfillment of "The New Jerusalem" 💫 "The Spirit enveloped me, and the angel led me to the top of a very high mountain. He showed Me Jerusalem, the Holy City, coming down from heaven from God." (Rev. 3:7-13). ... " For the time has come in the house of God for the beginning of judgment in the house of God." (1 Peter 4:17). ... It is fulfilled that God Himself is our Pastor in (Rev. 7:17) 💐
"For the Lamb in the midst of the throne will be their PASTOR. He will lead them to springs of life-giving water; and God will wipe the tears from their eyes"
📩 Calling and leading the sheep of God to His glorious Throne "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD"💐 to submit again to His authority so that He will continue to teach, guide and protect even in plague, famine and wild animals will not be moved by it and completely win this final battle with the big red dragon!
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and it will be fulfilled that will be established above the sky/RUclips in (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . . . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Eternal Father, Prince of Peace." 💌📨
@@seanross8793 I think it's simply more visible due to our interconnectedness - more profound than ever. The general human population is also higher than ever, which only dilates the broader, more "basic" part of the gaussian curve.
@Vaiviablo I see how the gaussian curve comes into play here. I actually did not account for that in my prior statements. But, even so, I still stand by my prior statement about how much more boldly certain opinions and denials are being pushed nowadays. Back in the early 2000s things were just as publicized and we didn't see all of the craziness we do now. It also doesn't help that the media went from just facts to pushing bias opinion without regard for facts.
Democracy is hard. It requires an educated, well-informed population that is engaged in the issues. But people are lazy. They want to come up with some unicorn-and-rainbows perfect system that runs itself without the need to check in but once every 4 years or so.
One look at the map shows these are not democratic countries at war.
That is why it doesn't work
In part why I like mandatory voting in my country, forces people to be a little more engaged but not anywhere near enough and doesn't stop people from just scribbling nonsense on ballots, as long as your name is ticked off on the registry you're good. And of course the system is still heavily susceptible to populism, political tribalism, 'current thing', etc.
@@osier769you’re in Australia?
And every 4 years the new guy undoes all the work of the last guy. This is why China can build a national rail network within a decade and America can’t even build it in a century, the bureaucracy of democracy is paralysing . A nation can achieve far more by having the same guy in power for a decade than having a new guy every 4 years undoing the work of his predecessor.
Why so many wars? Because history. We grew up in an unprecedentedly long peacetime. We didn't become wiser and learned how to cooperate with one another but became afraid of the Big Bad Nuke and started waging economic warfare and other underhanded tactics (spies etc.) instead. Third world nations don't have that fear so all gloves are off in their conflicts.
Yeah, I really think the unprecedented peace in the world has led to the uptick in wars. People who never experienced war don't know how bad it is, and so don't think as much of it when invoking it.
That explains why Russia is getting their face smeared through the dirt.
What peacetime are you talking about?
This just shows how good the world has it to live under Pax Americana, the period since WW2 where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place, and liberal democracies would have much less influence in the world.
With that said, the US is still the Global Hegemon by far, and Pax Americana is still here. The US has the largest economy, strongest military by far, most political, cultural influence, most technological power, dominates in soft power. Economy is the only aspect of power that China MIGHT pass the US in anytime soon
@@AW-zk5qb "Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world."
Then they would liberalize just like the USA. If an extreme superpower that is overwhelmingly more powerful than them militarily and economically has spent over half a century undermining their every action from domestic to foreign, they will become authoritarian and "dangerous." Humans do not just free will themselves into authority and security. History is not a series of unfortunate events where Russians and the Chinese just happened to have more centralized and heavy handed governments b-b-b-because muh judeo-christian values.
If China allied Canada and Mexico, started making military drills on them, funded the BLM movement in the USA, constantly challenged the USA's treatment of human rights and creating several organizations to destabilize the USA for having 20% of the world's prison population. If China started patrolling US coasts and was allied with the entire developed world to belittle the country. To place endless sanctions on the US and the US' allies for difference in social organization and so on. (All of these are things the USA is doing to China) wouldn't Ultranationalism skyrocket in America?
The Eastern "authoritarian states" of the world spend most of their existence trying to survive and make ends meet under the Overseeing eye of the US Empire. You beat people with sticks, and you're surprised they fight back.
If this were HOI4, I wonder how high the World Tension is 😓
40-50℅
im glad im not the only one who thinks about this a lot
75
Definitely above 25% because non alligned countries can declare war, maybe over 50% because some non alligned are justifying war goals, certainly below 100% because the democracies aren't declaring war yet
Edit : it's definitely over 50% because the democracies (US, UK, germany) are sending lend lease and volunteers. Heck, you could argue it's over 80% because democracies like finland and sweden are joining nato
@@kimyeonahchannel isn't Israel a democracy?
Thank you for the update.
Its very good to not forget smaller conflicts.
Keep the updates going👍
Many people want a Multi-polar World. Well, they got it
The multipolar world isn't the problem, it's weak leadership from the so-called good countries that like to think of themselves as the good guys, the democracies of this world, these have the power to stabilise things but are showing poor leadership, radical elements around the world are taking advantage of that, hence the rise of authoritarian governments, which could be a major threat to democracy, we've seen how they are rising in both EU countries and in the US and what we are seeing over the last decade reminds me of the 30's, there were a lot of signs of problems, we didn't take notice and it escalated into something much worse, I can't help but feel that we could be repeating history.
@@paul1979uk2000 The 1930's was a Multi-Polar World
yeah, freedom in the nature of the men
Because of precedent... This is what allowing Russia take Crimea and Donbass in 2014 started and it grew exponentially after 2022... Would Venezuela or Ethiopia actually think they could just grab land in Eritrea and Guyana before 2022?? I don't think so.
No, this is what happens when the US and UN over extend themselves militarily and financially so that when we fail to push Russia back in Ukraine, it exposes how weak the international order is. Russia's invasion wasn't the catalyst, it was a symptom decades in the making deriving from the failures of the global order.
@@Nerdvanna98 The real problem is the corruption in people's minds that drives them to destroy everything around them. And I don't even mean that in a religious sense. I mean it in a very mundane way. People simply can't let other people live in peace.
Sure... by that logic we could blame the Israel Hamas war all the way to back when Israel took over Palestinian land after ww2.
@@Ecaea not really because that's a very unique situation. Nobody looks at what has been happening there and thinks that it fits their own country. Anyway, yeah this version of terrorism that has been plagueing us for a century started there with Israelis and Palestinians and it kept spreading.
It's the same story as nuclear weapons. There is a taboo around them just like open wars had after world war 2. With the open invasion of Ukraine the taboo is gone and leaders saw how non western leaders did nothing but talk without taking any actions whilst certain nations even aligned with Russia. The more the Ukrainian war drags on and even worse, if Russia manages to annex the territories it wants and get away with it, then more and more wars will start. You can see it every day on the news. Asian and African leaders keep yapping about overthrowing the USA and the status quo. The reason why they do that is because without the USA there is no freedom of navigation there is no arsenal of democracy and the status quo you hear Russians and Chinese yapping about is that there should be no open wars and land grabs after world war 2 but they want to overturn that because that's what they want to do
You do realise you’re basically giving future GCSE History students the answers don’t you 😂
I see that as a good thing (provided that the students themselves aren't cheating on the tests).
@@TheScrowlingFender7 I have taken GCSEs in Pakistan. They are completely impossible to cheat in. For one you don't take them in your own school, your teachers are not the ones conducting the tests, they bring in outside invigilators sometimes even from the UK, there are cameras and security everywhere. On the flip side, this incentivizes schools at least in Pakistan to give much harder practice tests than anything that you may see in the real GCSE.
@@jhonshephard921gcse are easy anyway, you just need some foundational knowledge and be able to formulate a basic argument.
Things get a lot more tricky when you can’t pull quotes out of your arse anymore and you have to actually reference your evidence and sources.
I use to make up quotes in my gcse papers 😂
This will be a historical contemporary source. So admissible.
Well, that is what every historical source does.
One thing that is quickly falling behind the curtains due to more 'dramatic' causes of war is resources. Resources we previously viewed as things everyone should have like water, for example, is quickly drying up, and we already have fights breaking out about it. It's only going to get worse.
I blame Brexit.
If this doesn’t boil over to WWIII, then can we call it “The Phantom World War”?
I loved that name idea
Your american. Stay out of this
@@SGN30doesn’t matter
Why the hell are people so racist to americans it's annoying everywhere on politics Americans are ridiculed it's a stereotype and I'm tired of it. Some of us do need a decent education in politics but not all of us. It's so annoying to be treated as a joke just because I'm American.
#6. Aging leaders who have failed to do anything good for their populations and start casting around for scapegoats.
5:43 The Costa Rican case is not Just about crime but also about the state being unable to stop it. As an example, the current president decided to extend police working hours without compensation, leading to a police protest (where they decided to halt policing). Also, the main áreas where this violence took hold were San José (the capitol, home to many of the nation's slums) and Limón (a rural, coastal Province well known for being a magnet for drugs)
Point being, the main cause for the surge in crime and drugs were both a lack of effective policing and a surge in unemployment which led to many (specially Young folks) to see crime as the only choice...
This is why, if the US flies apart around the November 2024 Presidential election. Taiwan will get invaded, shortly followed by NKorea making their move. This will be exploited by Russia in the Ukraine war, and after that the dominoes will keep falling. Wish the two extremely polarised factions in the US knows what THEY put on risk if they don't keep it together !
Trust me this is not even the beginning. 2023 will be looked on as a good year compared to whats gonna happen a few decades from now. Rising wealth inequality, crashing birthrates, people getting married less, etc is all a sign of bad times ahead
Well it seems like the calm before the storm. I guess 2018 is an amazing year then
The effect of AI may be so huge it will swamp all of those effects, plausibly in either direction. (Annoyingly since its become a pop culture thing as of late, there are lots of uninformed opinions about this lately, Robert Miles has great AI safety videos about research in the field I recommend) Humanity is in unknown territory and accelerating further, our environment is becoming more and more different from the one we evolved in, we are stumbling in the dark.
Crashing birth rates sounds like a good thing, if it's global. Less cannon fodder for wars. Less cheap desperate labor - less undercutting of wages, more automation without suddenly losing jobs. Less consumers to burden the planet.
@@noneofyourbusiness4830 those are all true, but a higher tax burden on working young people for taking care of the elderly is absolutely a bad thing, it remains to be seen how all the effects will sus out. If birth rate crashes very fast and automation doesnt make life cozy it will be bad; if neither of those, it wont be.
Are you a Whatifalthist viewer?
I think also political destabilisation of the us is a major factor. First of all nations feel more self assured to create conflicts because us is becoming more and more isolationist and support for foreign countries at war is less popular amongst public. It also incentivises us enemies to create regional conflicts cause it further destabilises us politically and makes it more divided, so as a matter of opinion, a lot of regional conflicts makes us less influential and more unstable, which is good for its enemies
Yup, it's a favorite pastime of the US that all issues eventually become partisan ones. So in time, any action towards a solution for any conflict would become politically impossible for the US Congress.
Don’t act like the US is a stabilizing force for good in the world when the US has started of backed numerous wars, coups, blockades, embargoes, riots, sanctions, terrorist groups, etc etc etc in the last century. The US isn’t a global police force, but a global bully.
I am very surprised that the video made such little note of the decline of US hegemony. The fall of the Republic of Afghanistan over the span of a month embroidered factions around the globe and was a nail in the coffin for American public support for intervention. Ukraine has been an exception, with the Israel-Gaza war creating an unseen rift.
@@knightshade2654you’re watching a Western propaganda RUclips channel
@@knightshade2654 I found the video sloppy. The two big issues are probably the Ukraine war and a resurgence in American Isolationism. Everything else is probably a effect and not a cause. You can argue about the climate change stuff: without the first two that would probably result in tensions, not wars.
What about a power vacuum left as a greater power (Russia) pulls back influence from an area (Ngorno Kharabak), leaving an ally (Armenia) without the support they need to discourage a neighboring country (Azerbaijan) from taking action in a territorial dispute?
Russia was backing Armenia, and Armenia decided to say 'we recognize Azerbaijan has Nagorno-Kharabah' ... it actually shocked the russians, and annoyed the hell out of them.
There is something else going on there.
It wasn't disputed territory loool
Russia was not their to enforce the illegal separatist control of Azerbaijans SOVEREIGN territory.
They were there to ensure Armenia didn't face a two front war. Azerbaijan did not touch a single sliver of Armenia land.
Russia tried time and time again even with the EU to get Armenia to relinquish its illegal occupation.
There was literally NOTHING Russia could legally do about Azerbaijan conducting an operation within its internationally recognised borders.
Not even Armenia decided to help the occupying separatist forces.
Armenian arrogance was the cause for all of this the azeris even offered them the land in exchange for the other regions the Armenians illegally occupied... They refused and that's when the EU gave up. The azeris LEGALLY retook their seven occupied regions from Armenia by force which was so swift and decisive that Russia decided they were not only a diplomatic headache but also an incompetent military.
@@Milo-id9qd That was just an excuse the Russians used to justify their inaction. They were never going to act on Nagorno-Karabakh regardless of whether Armenia recognized the region as part of Azerbaijan or not.
Shocked Russians. Interesting
Call me once the move from shocked to remembering how legs work.
Because all I have ever seen from Russian people are husks that do nothing as the world gets blown up by their missiles.
Armenia had weapons and they decided not to use it though. This is well documeted.@@markdowding5737
2026: Yeah so it turns out all of that was WW3, we just didn't want to panic you.
I would argue the increasing amount of large and monopoly like multinational cooperations are one of multiple driving force behind the ride of authoritarianism. Big multi nationals and their investments are the one keeping authoritarians in power, especially in developing countries and countries which are over reliant one a single resource.
There is never a shortage of ambitious people who have no problem using any means to increase their own power and damn the consequences.
Unfortunately have been very successful recently
“Successful”
If this is their success, keep it coming 😂
We're starting to reach a point where the generations that do remember global conflict are at an age where they simply don't care anymore, and the generations that don't have never truly experienced it.
Even more worryingly, that generation that remembers global conflicts is reaching the end of its ability to finish them, so we are seeing a lot of last gasp attempts to settle scores they could not finish in their youth.
Probably why history repeats it's self so many times because the younger generation forget about it, when we should be learning from the lessons of it.
We might be seeing the early warning signs of something that could escalate into something much bigger, and just like in the 30's, there were a lot of warning signs, but we didn't take notices, which allowed things to escalate, basically, the depression which led to poverty, which allowed the more radical elements to take charge, we've already had a few warning signs of that in EU countries and in the US over the last decade and yep most of the citizens are blind to the threat it could mean.
I disagree, from my experience older generations that have experienced war (not counting America, their wars are absurd) are actually more prone to nationalism and willing to defend their nation's interests again. That is at least what I have noticed in Eastern Europe.
Isn't there a phenomenon of every 80 years there being a major world disruption? WWII was 80 years ago now. We were due for more strife, sadly
I blame FIFA.
Don't know how they're connected, but I think we all know they are...
the hegemon is showing signs of weakness so the aspirants want to test if they can nibble a piece of dominance and get away with what they do
This just shows how good the world has it to live under Pax Americana, the period since WW2 where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place, and liberal democracies would have much less influence in the world.
With that said, the US is still the Global Hegemon by far, and Pax Americana is still here. The US has the largest economy, strongest military by far, most political, cultural influence, most technological power, dominates in soft power. Economy is the only aspect of power that China MIGHT pass the US in anytime soon
@@AW-zk5qb I can smell the copium from here. Look up gdp and who the US relies on economically more.
You forgot to include a section about Sweden, where there's an ongoing challenge with gangs vying for control of territories for drug distribution. Moreover, there are individuals from a particular religious background peacefully voicing their disagreement with the LGBTQ community and women.
yes
the woke are usefull idiots. alla akbar!
The Baltic countries are highly known for their human rights and equal rights. Even their society has been growing steadily under it for a few decades now. Their 'Open immigration' policy brought all the problems. Only idiots can do reckless things like this.
Es terrible la situación de Suecia,mi hermana vive en Suecia desde hace 40años , estuve de visita 15dias este verano y quedé impresionado con la inseguridad que se vive allí y lo dice un venezolano que lleva viviendo toda la vida en Caracas
ehm, Sweden is not at war though. This video is about the outbreaks of wars, not the uprise of gangs around the world. So it's not relevant here.
Victoria Nuland has been working on this war in Ukraine her whole diplomatic career, she was there all those years ago involved with Dick Cheney setting up the first Orange revolution in Ukraine in 2004, then she became NATO ambassador, then she worked on the Euromaidan coup in 2014, then she came back and got promoted when Biden was sworn into office - what category would we put her in, Organized crime?
I think deglobalization is also a major factor, as the US pulls out of its role of global policeman.
Which shows that we absolutely need to collectively rethink global governance... this is urgent, existential threats are more present than ever and we as a species are completely unpreapared despite having the knowledge and means to stop it
US is not pulling out, it's being forced out.
Other countries were eventually gonna "recover" from WW2 and the cold war.
we have the knowledge, but not the tendency. we are evolved to survive as small tribes on the steppe, and find ourselves in a very very different environment, of course we are doing poorly! @@pablolucianogomezdemayorag4060we havweee
I have some bad news for you.....Globalization was also the cause for the rise of the brics countries, which caused a definite change in the global order. That ' s why the US is not the sole politicsl power in this world anymore.
@@pablolucianogomezdemayorag4060
More power to the UN.
What on Earth does "full democracy" mean? That's such an ambiguous term. It's not a term I'd usually expect to hear from TLDR News.
Free and fair elections, free press, freedom of protest, rule of law, peaceful transitions of power, relatively low corruption. The opposite of an autocracy, with rigged elections, state media, political intimidation, arrests of political rivals, nepotism, and kleptocracy.
A full democracy is when the population votes on everything. All current democratic nations live under the representative democracy. We elect officials who we hope vote in our interests, which they usually don't and vote to deepen their pockets. A full democracy relies on an educated and informed population. That's something our elected officials make certain is never achieved
@@andrewbavaro9015 That's one interpretation, yes, and probably mine, but it's clearly not the UK government's or TLDR's.
@@andrewbavaro9015 Ah yes. Full democracy is when you vote for a 4 year dictator that MIGHT fulfill their promises.
It is pretty much like the opening text of Lord of the Rings, people forget, the second world war is almost a legend now. Or the opening of Secret of Mana game, "time flows like a river, and history repeats".
>the second world war is almost a legend now
It is hard to believe how true this is. There are only so many WWII veterans who are still alive, and every aspect of the conflict has been written about to such an extent that it can feel more like a setting than real, horrible war.
Great references, too. I screenshotted your comment.
@@knightshade2654Alter ego pfp W
Thank you. Potentially factor number 6 is the slow decline of Globalization. (I know I go on about this, but it has defined the past 70 years of human history.) This not only has provided resources for people but has induced people to participate for their individual prosperity and benefit. Conflicts would disrupt it. With it going away, people looking at supply chain issues and having less, are more prone to get what the can by any means. Governments looking at declining resources are wanting to return to Imperial Models to get resources. With the US withdrawing as a heavy to push peoples and nations into behaving, governments and peoples are looking to realign however they can. Others are testing the waters to see what they can get away with and set up new regional orders. This very sadly will continue to be messy and violent.
This is exactly what I was about to comment! The shift in the global world order is I think the biggest reason all these conflicts escalated so quickly :/
❤
Are you Peter Zeihan?
@@KnowledgeNerd123 No. But a Historic Researcher who, with Zeihan's revelation of the 'Hidden Policy' aspects of Bretton Woods, has gotten understand of 60 years of observations of "Current Events".
Repulsive. No, globalism is our death and should be opposed at all costs.
Probably harsh comment, but I wonder if it's so weird because the vast majority of leaders and politicians are over 60 and older, far above the average age of rulers, which makes them drag their very old and unflexible world views along as long as they can? The world population is getting as old as never before and a huge bubble of civilication is far beyond an age where you learn to accept or compromise with new insights.
This is an interesting perspective but I’d argue younger generations are far more belligerent and hot headed than their elders. The young have never really seen war and so sometimes they romanticise it.
I’d force 16 year old to watch awful war footage as to traumatise them a little and make them less willing to be pro war. Or at least have some aversion towards it. Call of duty almost made me enlist then I watched some wiki leaks and changed my mind. Slaughtering civilians isn’t my vibe.
@@ibrahimhassan711remember that the young are NEVER allowed into power because the elderly sloth farts won’t let them disrupt the system keeping them rich and in power.
@@Historyandlegends789You know those old people used to be young too, and when they die, the next set of old people take power, until those who are currently young are the old people and are in power, it's not about blocking the youth from power it's about making them wait until it's their turn
Its good you're trying to theorycraft about world events. But know that there's a scientific method applied to politics, called Historical Materialism. Try to learn about it, maybe the events of history unfolding right now will make more sense.
History is not a series of disconnected individual events. Human ideas do not manipulate the world, but rather human ideas are a response to the world. Youthful open-mindedness is unfortunately not the utopian solution to everything.
Good point. I wonder if many youth addicted to CSGO and the like actually think it's getting short and respawn. No pain, no suffering, just pew pew and haha's.@@ibrahimhassan711
MONOPOLY USUALLY STARTS A WAR IN MY HOUSE OVER CHRISTMAS
Must be shit, get better at the game and win like a man
Voetsek
Wars have been around forever.
The real question is why have the last 70 years been relatively peaceful.
US as the sole world power needed stability to adhere to the wants of the corporate overlords. Now that others have partially caught up, the US cant provide for the whole world anymore. It´s the joke about being the world police except there are a lot of places that really hated the police until they were gone and the thugs came in instead
The US created a world where peace was possible. Everyone took it for granted and now it's over.
Tell me your American without telling me
It is true though
@@Swirlz0 The term "the Long Peace" exists for a reason to refer to unprecedented peace between global powers since WWII. This is not to deny the existence of proxy wars or wars among minor powers, but we all know that war between large countries is far more devastating.
It's interesting how Azerbaijan is marked yellow in that "democracy" map. Their ruling family has been in power for the last 30 years with the president's wife as the vice president and the county ranks #134 in the latest democracy index.
USA With 71 illegal base in Iraq and 41 in North Syria also marked democratic here in Index, so its absurd.
@@monstaplaytv4545That has nothing to do with democracy
@@Ironguy-gm6vfUSA has nothing to do with democracy, agreed. A planetary terrorist.
@@monstaplaytv4545 wow...the ignorance...
As an American, I feel really guilty here considering how well off we are and how much of the current state of world affairs we have caused. But our standard of living has greatly dropped. I have so many colleagues who have to work 2/3 jobs to pay for rent. Rent in my neighborhood increased about 1k. It’s crazy
The USA hasn’t caused anything god you people are laughable
How well you are, idk what would happen if Trump won presidency
To be fair, for good or bad, the US has also been a big stabilising effect on various parts of the world. The threat of US armed intervention has been a source of colonialism and interference in democracies in your history, but it's also stopped some states from acting out overtly; like Iran or China.
@@Deiwos0 "like iran or China", it's the west that's causing greater misery in this world.
Just for the US, aiding corrupt officials in countries like mine, aiding the killing of thousands of children in Gaza, invading countries and causing hundreds of thousands of deaths, sanctioning anyone who don't obey them, not cutting ties with the US, but even forcing other states to stop trading with them.
It's a one sided perspective to think that pax-Americana was an all good thing
@@Omer1996E.C I didn't say it was a good thing. Absolutely no doubt that America throwing its weight around is propping up some seriously fucked up regimes; look at half the dictators in south America, all fully US funded and supported - but that same American weight is what's North Korea trundling down the peninsular or China invading Taiwan.
Geopolitics is way more complicated than "good or bad"
We do ignore the polarization of people by social media... which should also be included as one of the factors
How many conflicts have been driven by social media? I can't think of any
@@kayplays6425 This guy was too young when Arab Spring came about, and even when you don't see it, Daesh militants actively recruit and promote their terror agenda on X/Twitter. That, and several countries have gone to using paid troll farms to disseminate disinformation and misinformation across various social networks, it's not like some conflicts had been prolonged by social media.
Social media really hasn’t played a role in much outside of Israel-Palestine. Most really arent even aware of a lot of conflicts besides that and Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine isnt that polarizing if we’re being honest, even if there are some that dont want to support Ukraine more. It’s still wildly unpopular
@@kayplays6425 Driven is very likely none, popularised is another thing, and that itself attracts politicians looking for votes to jump onboard 'current thing' and throw money in to the firestorm. My own government (Aus) is doing that involving conflicts well outside our region, I'm not totally against it, but social media is undoubtedly playing a part (to what degree, who knows) in how much it commits and helps to prolong conflicts, for better or worse.
@@kayplays6425Burma 100% can include Facebook as part of the reason for the current situation. The lack of moderation in native language is a huge part of the issues.
I'm sure there are a few papers that have researched it and reported issues.
How's an honest warmonger supposed to make a living?
McDonald's
Africa's getting a bit too peaceful..
I can never escape the mgr memes
Thank you for this video
Seeing all this conflict around the world, the ineffectiveness of UN, and trying not to be a doomer challenge: extremely difficult
Am I watching this at 5am yes… thank you tldr for everything you do!
demographics change with the aging of the population in both Russia and China
How many of these conflicts involve Islamo Fascism…???
A full democracy is when the population votes on everything. All current democratic nations live under the representative democracy. We elect officials who we hope vote in our interests, which they usually don't and vote to deepen their pockets. A full democracy relies on an educated and informed population. That's something our elected officials make certain is never achieved
The source of TLDR News for that section was the Westminister Foundation for Democracy, whose metrics are based on The Democracy Index. Unlike your definition (which is equally valid), they include measurements of civil liberties and pluralism, which also factors into the definition.
I do think it is quite bizarre that a "full" democracy has a spectral score, but please be aware that many experts disagree with the notion that a direct democracy = a full democracy.
Great work
this is one of the more depressing videos I have seen.
Plague, war, famine… a tale as old as civilization.
thank you. You forgot to include a section about Sweden, where there's an ongoing challenge with gangs vying for control of territories for drug distribution. Moreover, there are individuals from a particular religious background peacefully voicing their disagreement with the LGBTQ community and women.
@juanmartin1729 - "... individuals from a particular religious background...."
Ahh yes..... the "religion" of "peace" making its presence felt.......... :)
"Diversity" and "cultural enrichment" - ain't they grand?
Seriously, I do feel sorry for some Swedes. Not the blockheads who voted to open the immigration floodgates but the *sensible conservatives* who could see the disaster coming a mile away.
It’s not just Sweden though. It’s also France, UK, Germany, Canada and even parts of the USA.
@@gaius_enceladusaren't sensible conservatives anti-LGBT too? Or am I missing something?
Cough cough muslims
@@gaius_enceladus man the world would be se much better if the westernern christians hadnt destableized, genocided, ethnically cleansed and destroyed the rest of the world for centuries for their own financial and religious purpouses.
The most important factor is the decline in the power and influence of the US across the globe. As the world loses the hegemony of US rule, small states are less inclined to avoid war for fear of US intervention.
US should use its power to shut this war as they did for the end of world war 2
Your comment is a lost of fallacies and one faced arguements. Akin to a thief claiming “I am a good person; see how many gold watches I have” nevermind he stole them. Let me elaborate.
3 US presidents in your ‘Pax America’ which the world is so blessed to witness, killed 10 million Arab CIVILIANS. That is holocaust numbers. On avg. for every HOUR passed during Obama’s presidency, 1 bomb was dropped on Yemen.
The USA is not this mighty Angel as you think it is and it has caused more conflict and death and chaos than Russia and China combined.
Before you lash out and scream Nazi 3 times, I despise them as well. Simply put, the USA’s foreign policy has ruined more countries than your hands could count.
Also, this isn’t a new thing. Look at the Mai Lai massacre of Vietname where US soldiers raped and killed Vietnamese women and children.
Or when they carried out their fully anti-democratic policy in Vietnam. Or when they interfered with Egypt’s trade in 1949. Or when they damaged the world’s economy and took us off the gold standard. Or a million other things.
Don’t be one-faced in judging the virtue of a nation. Indeed power sees no virtue, and may be judged simply. But to exclaim that a nation was good for the rest of the world after having caused the deaths of more civilians than the Nazis ever could [≈100 mil. Casualties from proxy wars caused by Cold War].
I hope you take my comment in peace. I do not mean hate towards your nation, if you are an American. Indeed, all powerful nations have dead bodies in their basements.
@@AW-zk5qb The people who like pax americana are all americans, the rest of the world knows how many coups and wars started with the direct or indirect influence of the US, mainly during the cold war. Russia is in no place to be the next hegemony, but China presents a more interesting alternative
@@AW-zk5qb Agreed. Are you trying to disagree, or just adding your point of view? My only point is that as the US appears to weaken, its enemies will vie to fill the power vacuum and that leads to a less peaceful world.
@@AW-zk5qb "The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place"
Not necessarily, the chaos that these nations influence is merelly a geopolitical tool in order to achieve their goal of becoming a hegemen, whether global or regional, even the US has done that in the past, see the "Big Stick" and its wars agaisnt Spain and other colonial powers in order to establish its domiannce over the Americas.
Superpowers and regional powers only shift into their "Pax" mode once they have achieved their goals, and a world where another nation, in the case you mentioned, China, would also end up entering a period of piece, as the Chinese would seek to stabilize "their" new world order, for that is good for businesses and for the suitainement of their empire.
You can see examples of the same throught history, see for example the "Pax Romana".
(I've reposted this here since you seem to be replying the same comment like a bot)
Let's hope for conflict resolution without warfare from 2024
So many wars because we’ve only been putting off many of the issues that need to be resolved, especially sovereignty. Historically people who don’t resolve their issues amicably will have to fight it out, when the dust settles whoever is left can prosper, hopefully without foreign interference😂. Africa has way too much going on, it’s going to take a least 15-20 more years to settle. Some will do better or worse, that’s just how life on earth goes man.
this is so well done! good work team.
Most of these conflicts are very minor or just skirmishes they aren't really a big deal. For example I am from India and there is Kashmir conflict as a separatist movement by Kashmiri militants but this conflict hasn't any effect on our country on our daily life and even on the citizens living in there
context is we have so many popularity driven leaders and the amount of wars happening is really down to these leaders wanting to push a domestic issue or scandal out of the public eye.
Childfree Nigerian guy here. Just to add to list of reasons. OVERPOPULATION. Big World = Big Problems
Was guessing any sensible person knows American involvement is one of the reasons why wars are still happening
Unfortunately it seems wars are happening with or without American involvement. It is a long and perilous road to world peace
These people beat people with rocks, and are surprised they fight back with sticks.
Pax Americana is over, time to rearm and get prepared.
bit early to claim that
The USA is a globalized country, almost everything you buy in a store in the USA that is not food is imported. The USA as such might play up internal political games but in reality will show up and and do it's duty or else will suffer greatly with unimaginable inflation and shortages. No no, Pax American is far far from over. The USA is right now policing the situation in the Red Sea even as most European and Asian countries bailed out. When the moment of truth comes the USA will show up as always. Internet cheap pundits will say nonsense to get people to watch their pointless videos but the reality on the ground, or on the water, says otherwise. Trump, Biden it does not matter, the USA imports more than it exports by 100 billion PER MONTH!!!! No the USA is not going to step away from anything. Wake me up if the USA manufactures everything people buy in the stores and Exports more than it imports, THEN only THEN I will agree with that view.
This just shows how good the world has it to live under Pax Americana, the period since WW2 where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place, and liberal democracies would have much less influence in the world.
With that said, the US is still the Global Hegemon by far, Pax Americana is NOT over. The US has the largest economy, strongest military by far, most political, cultural influence, most technological power, dominates in soft power. Economy is the only aspect of power that China MIGHT pass the US in anytime soon
There’s no defending what Israel is currently doing, but Israel also did not start this round of fighting, so saying it’s “Israel’s invasion of Gaza,” takes out the nuance and misrepresents how this war began.
It's all a cycle of revenge from both sides of this point. With no way to stop it unless one side just straight up wins completely.
America would do the exact same as Israel (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya). Russia would do the exact same as Israel (just look at Chechnya). China would do the exact same as Israel (Uyghurs?) Let's be honest everyone is a fucking hypocrit judging Israel and being anti semitic. I think we all know one connection everyone in this matter has. It is always muslims causing trouble leaving governments no choice but to crack down hard on the terrorists. Well except in China who literally just brainwash Uyhgurs in their country lmao. Islam as a religion only exists to cause unification between tribes to fight large governments. It's literally what Mohammed aimed to do adulterate the bible into a Quran, unite Arab tribes to fight the christian Byzantine Empire and zoroastrian Persian Empire, gain soft power in the middle east and spread arabism.
It started with israel barging in where they do not belong. Otherwise, Russia is just in its invasion of Ukraine to free ethnic russians from ukrainian injustice.
Greed is the main reason for this wars....
_"...People enjoyed luxuries once thought the realm of science fiction: Domestic robots, fusion-powered cars, portable computers._
_But then, in the 21st century, people awoke from the American dream._
_Years of consumption lead to shortages of every major resource._
_The entire world unraveled._
_Peace became a distant memory._
_It is now the year 2077. We stand on the brink of total war._
_And I am afraid. For myself, for my wife, for my infant son._
_Because if my time in the army taught me one thing, it's that war, war never changes."_
The Fallout 4 intro hits different these days.
#4 do you also feel that the involvement of PMCs like Wagner also had a major factor as well in this or just too hard to tell?
sure in african i would say private military companies in general has had an impact the last decade.
The fact that african dictator warlords can hire a foreign PMC to secure and defend their natrual resources and dont care about human rights or warcrimes
@@legatilegions8055was already happening with legitimate Western government lmao, the only reason why "we need to be concerned" is that this time the Russians are doing it...
If Metal gear rising predicted pmc's then we must have politicians fighting against cyborg ninja's soon?
I'm not sure what would be hard to tell. The PMC deal is crystal clear, no one is even trying to hide it. The deal is "we offer military aid with no democratic or anti-corruption requirements, and you join our sphere of influence and use part of that corruption in our favor". It's the type of deal that was done by the mafia.
So yeah, this will lead to conflict, just like any other mafia deal did.
They did talk about Russia making a bloc that disputes the rule-based international order.
COVID. It’s like lighting a match in a room while waist deep in gasoline.
Indeed there was some influence from COVID - not the direct results of the pandemic but the indirect results. There was some kind of "economic world order" that was established in the second half of the 2010s (although you could say there were already some really bad signs appearing - e.g. the democratic decline and culture wars were already present, although not at the same degree as it is now, and the climate crisis was already a thing) that was broken by the huge worldwide COVID recession.
Here in Argentina, we are suffering from harsh economical situation, i.e. inflation of 1 0/0 a day, drug dealing, drinking problems, human traffic, political corruption, etc. We have elected a new president, Mr. Javiwr Milei. We hope he and we can change this sad story 😢
The only thing he will change is inflation to massive deflation. Argentina needs to stop borrowing USD and show the IMF and the work bank the middle finger.
A very holistic analysis team. Kudos to the efforts.
Feels like a bubble waiting to burst, just like WWI
And more people than ever have weapons! Yay!
Hi there,
I hope you're well
I really appreciate your efforts to deliver information among people
Imagine knowing you have a finite existence with a max of around 80 years, and then fighting in a war for a leader who doesn’t give a 💩 about you and fighting for arbitrary borders.
some time i question what is democracy the right to starve to death, the right to poverty, the right to have no national health I think Democracy begins when someone else end
But remember that they’re still way less deaths from wars compared to 100 or 50 years ago.
Who could predicted that COVID pandemic would ignite many tensions and accelerate some processes based on existing tensions
Africa is the only continent where there is no demographic crisis, meaning that it is growing, population wise, at an astounding level. This creates many hurdles on a continent who still hasn't solved many of its issues. Population growth is good (when it's closer to the replacement line) but not on such level and without many other things figured out.
Climate change, that has little to do with the problems, given that many of the countries listed paid the price of bad planning (or no planning at all) while growing demographically.
Democracy, lol, when was that a thing on an international level? Only in the 90's there was some "illusion" of turning the tables due to the Americas finally grasping some semblance of democracy, the fall of the Soviet Union or some hope for Africa to begin to walk the road. But most countries do not have neither the philosophies nor the system or the political will to make democracy something functional (that's why they turn back to having thing resembling to their old empires, when they are big, or kingdoms when they are small).
The Middle East will be forever a source of conflict or war because their (political and even life) philosophies are based on the subjugation of whoever, never on negotiations and peace, there is no such thing as accepting (real) dissent, it makes them crazy mad. The only thing that Israel is good for is that it makes them forget how much they hate each other.
Ah yes. Democracy is when human free will want democracy. Democracy is totally not correlated with national security and prosperity..
"The Middle East will be forever a source of conflict or war because their (political and even life) philosophies are based on the subjugation of whoever, never on negotiations and peace, there is no such thing as accepting (real) dissent, it makes them crazy mad. The only thing that Israel is good for is that it makes them forget how much they hate each other."
Let me guess. You made this up. This is what happens when you don't apply the scientific method into politics. Read about Historical Materialism.
The middle east is a source of conflict and war because they are still suffering the consequences of colonialism until this day. Not to mention they are left poor and undeveloped due to the structure of globalist trade (unequal exchange demands they sell more resources than they gain. There is a reason why the 1st world consumes more than they produce. I wonder where all of those resources they're consuming are coming from. Its as if the welfare they offer their citizens don't come from their Capitalists' pockets but rather the exploitation of those living in the 3rd world.)
The middle east also has to deal with the constant harassment of the imperial west. All it takes is a single perceived "rigged election" in the USA to piss off half the entire population. Yet in the Middle east the USA has deposed the Saudi Arabian monarch in the past. Has rigged Syrian elections. Invaded Afghanistan to establish an unpopular government, and invaded Iraq for claims of Nuclear Arsenal (which they found didn't exist in the end) but then proceeded to place a puppet Iraqi government anyways. This is not even a fraction of the west's crimes towards the middle east. And yet despite all this you expect them to behave like Buddha?
Even the existence of Islamic Extremism is a result of desperation caused by the suffering of colonialism, which only further took root and intensified during neocolonialism when the west refused to let the Middle East manage themselves without harassment.
@@DeletedSince.2020 Yeah, Colonialism, a negative factor turned into the eternal excuse for avoiding seeing inside and always distracting themselves with an outside force, the enemies of the noble locals, who can't do but cope. It works for many of the locals while they kill themselves and blow themselves up. "They, on the outside, make me hate you, even if we have been hating each other since time immemorial".
Thus "colonialism" yet you have examples of countries that had very recent colonialism or dictatorships and made a fast turn towards some local version of democracy,. So that wouldn't be the impediment per se, but the cultural factor that I mentioned.
Democracy is an empty shell without the philosophies that give it sustenance. Philosophies spring ideologies. In the Middle East no philosophy can spring without a strong religious component and Islam and its understanding of things is the only one that provides. Islam hasn't give birth to a secular version, like it would be Humanism in the West, after so many, many religious wars in Europe. They haven't solved the hatred. Europe did by sifting through what they agreed upon but taking out the religious mention. Thus Humanism, as a philosophy, that allowed (in time, a long time) for the development of ideological and political systems that could work only concentrated on those things that could work for the betterment of everybody, as an ideal. A "human" ideal.
The middle East lived under the subjugation of empires for ever, the Europeans merely arrived last in a region that was always under the logic of tyranny. Even their religion expanded by the synergy of force rather than conversion. Humanism is incompatible with them: they value their own religion, tribe, clan, and other divisions over any other adherence or ideal. Alawites in Syria, Hashemites in Jordan, religious designated positions in Lebanon, and so on and on and on. Even when they deny this, they know that ethnicity, language, sect, etc. play a role on who gets what. Family connections moves the wheel, not the selection per merit.
That's also why you have the Golf States where, in some cases you have 80% or 90% of the population being (eternal) foreign workers (as you can never, ever, gain permanent residence, let alone citizenship, that is almost practically impossible) while the tiny teeny minority of locals rule them all, undisturbed and without any hint of guilt, any local discourse about violating Human Rights (that they adopt for international convenience but have absolutely no bearing in local beliefs) or feeling of contradiction.
Hence (and they ALL know it) he who wields the sword is the one who rule. Iran, a theocracy whose democratic parody is the closest to what they consider "democracy" (meaning: the people elect a little puppet, the bigger strings are handled by the untouchable and unelected religious class, who sees that nothing, ever, deviates from their vision of religion in the state) also tries to expand, through violence and foundation of different armed groups, the poisonous seed of discord so they can one day be the ones who wield the sword in the Middle East.
Hence and under this present conditions, without a foundational local philosophy that makes them understand a different view on life and humanity and with many, many, many forces fighting to keep their power and even expand it over each other, there will never be peace among them. Israel is the only unifier (on hatred) but even if Israel disappears ipso facto, that wouldn't solve not a bit their struggles. Oil merely works as some respite on an utterly maladaptive region that never knew piece other than being subjugated by empires. It shifted the location though.
Islamic extremism, that is just another modernized version of the religious wars fought along centuries every time yet another version of Islam wanted to have their say without having their heads cut. Wahhabism and its backwardism is historically quite recent (from the XVIII century) yet it inspired many "extremisms" way before the Europeas had any interest in the region, due to oil. It's the locals, with local means, traditional ancestral hatred and quarrels, with some renewal because of the political changes that swept the world (pan-Arabism would've made them laugh before the concept of some shared ethnic trait, as a base to build nations, was introduced from Europe) etc.
UN and world leadership have failed. The priority is somehow STILL power and ego instead of cooperation, solving global issues, and technological advancements. We need reform at the UN.
Weak leaders create hard times.
Selfishness and treating the population as a commodity. What is considered good anymore?
Me
Short answer: corporations and politicians are old and making money and the world can burn as long as they can keep their livelihood
If you scratch beneath the surface you will find one coubtry involved in all of these wsrs
We will stumble along. I don't think it's going to reach a peak before the mid-late '30s
"if youve got any ideas please share belw"
As if we dont already habe enough reason to kick off for wars 😂😂😂
nice way to start the new year. :)
TLDR at the start of the video: so many wars... so sad...
TLDR at the end of the video: BRILLIANT!!
😅
One reason for armed conflict is that as soon as two groups take up arms, they _are_ "the two sides", no matter how unrepresentative they are of the populations from which they draw recruits. If the outside world's response to an armed conflict was consistently to try to empower other subsets of the two populations, so that both "sides" lose, there would be fewer armed conflicts. But that would be difficult. (It's also not an answer to "why now?".)
Many wars have more than 2 sides; the Syrian civil war has 4.
Adding more sides just adds to the chaos. You wouldn't be solving anything.
@@JewTube001 I'm not saying we should add more sides to armed conflicts. I'm saying that we should undermine the "sides" that are already there. If people are equating "the Palestinians" with Hamas because Hamas is who's killing people most recently, we should try to strengthen Fatah. If, hypothetically, the PKK leads a military campaign (in which a dozen other Kurdish organizations join), while the Islamic Kurdistan Movement opts out (along with another dozen other Kurdish organizations), we shouldn't equate "the Kurds" with the PKK and try to facilitate negotiations between Iran, Turkey, and the PKK. Instead, we should try to figure out which Kurdish organizations really are working peacefully rather than being a civilian arm of the PKK, and then try both to divert Kurdish support away from the PKK and toward the Islamic Kurdistan Movement, and to get Iran and Turkey to negotiate with the Islamic Kurdistan Movement. Maybe we like one group's vision of what Kurdistan better than another, but that should be set aside if the one we would have preferred decides to use violent means while the other commits to peaceful means. Neither organization _is_ "the Kurds", but the moment there's violence, both diplomacy and the media center the perpetrators and sidelines the relatively peaceful.
(Again, the choice of Kurdish organizations to use in the example is hypothetical. I have no idea which Kurdish organizations are more inclined to perpetrate or materially support violence and which are less so, nor which ones besides the PKK are prominent enough to usefully negotiate with. And it's not as though we have a lot of leverage with Iran at the moment. I'm just trying to illustrate the type of approach I'm talking about.)
They were in a hoi4 lobby and after clicking political and economic focus trees started clicking expansion focuses to demand land and go to war
Stealing wealth is faster than working for wealth.
In fact, working for wealth just doesn't work out - as soon as a small amount of wealth is accumulated there will be someone willing to take a risk to steal it.
stealing people from africa worked for usa... so you right. stealing "wealth" is faster.
6. There are also ideological disputes.
Ideas don't manipulate the world. Ideas are a response to the world. Learn about Historical Materialism. You are a few steps from quoting Mein Kampf, idealist.
I think the primary enabling factor probably has more to do with the relative rollback of global power networks and more specifically the loosening of the great powers grip on their less reliable proxies.
During the Cold War, the US and USSR essentially dictated any major conflict that was happening at any given time. However after the collapse of the USSR, a lot of these countries found themselves in a strange position. The US began to slowly roll back the more domineering side of its global role... especially in recent years.
The Soviet Powerblock essentially ceased to exist. Russia being barely a shadow of the soviet Union, retained some influence, enough to delay conflict in some places, but its current weakness is somewhat underscored by the ongoing conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia effectively lost the support of Russia, which allows the Turkish backed Azerbaijan to do as it pleases.
The same is true in central Asia..
Africa is the result of the finally collapsing French influence and the results of what the influence entailed for African states in general.
Not all that much is going on in East Asia. but Burma has finally boiled over again... a result of internal issues, partially stemming from its self imposed isolation.
In short, the influences and alliances that held the previous peace together have fractured. for a minuet, even NATO looked as if it might dissolve.
The US in particular, shifting away from its role as global Hegemon towards one of Great Power Competition and potentially conflict also plays its part. The US appears to be rapidly loosing interest in the Middle East. Almost threatening to leave Saudi Arabia to its fate, all but pulling out of Iraq and Syria. Other Western powers have not offered to fill the gap either. (most of them lack the capability).
We should also include perception. As the US has taken an apparent step back... that alone is the cause. not the step back, but the cause. which is quite possibly why Hezbolla and Iran aren't interested in provoking US intervention on the side of Israel. If they wait a few more years. the US will be too preoccupied to give half a damn about the Middle east and they will have free reign. especially the the shrinking need for foreign oil in the US market.
Everything is currently pointing towards a period of global instability. (IMO)
You haven’t touched on the main cause of conflict: high birth rates and very young populations, especially populations where large shares of the young have no perspective in life.
So appreciate your work! I come here to understand both the big picture and the nuances. ❤🙏
Mainstream media is simply not up to the task!!
We're just waiting to see how long it takes for certain countries to realize that the U.S. doesn't have the resources to deal with them all at once.
We do, actually. We just don't care.
@@andrewklang809 Good news for us then
This just shows how good the world has it to live under Pax Americana, the period since WW2 where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Just imagine if Russia or China were the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a much more chaotic, dangerous place, and liberal democracies would have much less influence in the world.
With that said, the US is still the Global Hegemon by far, and Pax Americana is still here. The US has the largest economy, strongest military by far, most political, cultural influence, most technological power, dominates in soft power. Economy is the only aspect of power that China MIGHT pass the US in anytime soon
But it does. States like Russia n China seeing how far they can go is what this is all about.
@@joso7228 The US (with European assistance) could keep Russia tied up in Ukraine indefinitely using just old, unused equipment and a handful of new drones and EW gadgets. The US Navy and Air Force can handle China if they move on Taiwan. The rest of the world can't do anything to hurt us or can do so little (the Houthis) that we could protect our interests with the equivalent of the nail of our pinkies.
It's more a matter of political divisions, an embarrassingly pro-Russia GOP leader, and a Democratic president afraid to do anything, and that's assuming he doesn't honestly believe he's still living in the pre-Gingrich days and that Ronnie and Tip will eventually smooth out any partisan issues before they get too bad. Along with your typical US voter apathy and ignorance of anything going on overseas. We have problems, no question, but it's not related in any way to hard power.
So many?? This is only the beginning 😂
Yeah boomers in copium right now
This is that multipolar world the literati were so keen on in the mid 'oughts. Hope you like it
It's the crux of the downfall of us bullying America is going to lose everythingvin
Not our problem, the USA should withdraw all military assets besides Japan, SK and Poland, and focus on North American affairs. The trend of increasingly isolationist presidents in the USA is a good trend.
Same. I see social, moral and economic problems in my country but with the resources we have, we are one of the few nations that can be 100% self reliant. Akin to the sakoku decree.
Peace is won either by respecting territorial integrity and favoring trade or by mutually assured destruction and favoring ties.