Is the End of Esports Coming?
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- Опубликовано: 2 дек 2024
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Yo it's Devin Nash and we are talking about esports in this video, covering the League of Legends Championship Series, Overwatch League, and Fighting Game Community. We'll talk about how its going in the LCS, LEC, and LCK, and also cover Overwatch.
We cover esports revenue, how esports teams make money, and how much money esports teams make. You'll learn about the esports business model.
With all eyes on a possible looming recession, what will happen to esports? Many esports teams are overvalued, with high player salaries and little incoming cash. We discuss the potential future of esports in this one hour talk. We also cover the history of esports, how esports began, and how to understand the esports industry, which is great if you want to get a job in esports.
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#Esports #leagueoflegends #streaming
Even the greenscreen got hit in the recession
I'd be largely interested in seeing a video about how OWL fails as a whole and what they can do/should have done to put themselves in a good position for success (aside from not being under Blizzard). Sort of like a "Hey other current/future leagues, these are their failures. Learn from it"
IMO, I think the key to having a lot of viewers is to have a lot of casual players. When HOTS and anything else Blizzard could have used for their ESports push failed, it was all down to Overwatch. That meant that they were beholden to a semi-stable meta so teams didn't spend money signing players whose characters got nerfed into oblivion (Mark Cuban has specifically talked about this as a category risk of investing in an esports team). The sheer amount of time they allowed the GOATS meta to fester, a composition that was tedious to play and even more boring to watch was a deathblow from which the game's playerbase never recovered.
3 MONTHS.... 3 MONTHS OF A CONTENT BLACKOUT... Finally, good to see you back.
dude had to move. give him a break.
@@RennaRoze where did he move?
@@livinghero his discord announcements state he's moving the entirety of his business (NOVO) to TX
Been waiting too
Whoa whoa whoa. It's 2022, "blackout" is a racist term buddy. You can call it a content downtime.
32:20 we still here Devin and learning more and more 😊
Omg!!! I’m so glad you’re back! I missed your content!
Glad to have you back Devin, I definitely missed your content and was wondering, just a few days ago, when you'd be back.
The coolest thing about FGC events is even when the publishers are involved, it's just one final tournament to finish of a season and they incorporate all the majors like EVO and Combo Breaker for qualifying while still giving some support to smaller local events. Even the small local I go to for a smaller game, Granblue Fantasy Versus, receives a little support from the Japanese IP owner, Cygames.
From a competitor standpoint, it's also cool cause making it big and going pro isn't as unattainable as it is in like League or CS:GO.
46:40 FGC Conversation starts
good to see you back
It sounds like another way to phrase it is that when growth is inorganic or forced, it's shown itself to be unsustainable. Both Overwatch and Heroes of the Storm tried to bypass it.
I think Hearthstone is kind of an interesting example in that sense too, because its initial esports scene was organic and did fairly well. When Blizzard stepped in to officially support it, they kind of inadvertently undermined it. In Grandmasters for example, players had to play so much that they got burned out and because it was hard to get back into this official league, some players just straight up retired when they got relegated. This caused the other players to want to play even less because their friends were no longer there. Although credit where it is due, outside of Grandmasters the Masters Tour system is pretty good for the average competitor and they've continually made changes to make it better. Which is actually why they are phasing out Grandmasters. The way its set up right now allows for that organic growth, but the side affect of that is the money may not be good enough to make a living off of. Which I guess is why pros were usually streamers in the first place.
26 rising has actually recently gotten into Smash Ultimate through the Michigan scene. Such a huge org paying smash players in that range like you mentioned Devin. I think 26R has major potential for growth in the FGC/Smash community
been missing the devin nash updates, glad to see em back! :) also smth smth secret callout section smth smth
Only way OWL can be saved if they sit with franchise teams and reset everything and rebuild from salaries to sponsorships pricing or i don't see anyone renew the broadcasting contracts. We get 100k+ CCV in India and get paid pennies for that shit
Thanks!
Literally just looked at your channel yesterday wondering why you haven't uploaded in a while. Great timing!
Really enjoyed seeing how publishers affect e-sports industries and how exactly blizzard allocated funds in OWL. Would love a video on CDL in the future. Maybe even include history on counterstrike in esports. Love the videos as always Devin!
Great insight, fantastic video Devin.
So glad you’re back, I recently started listening to the episodes on Spotify, and I’ve gone through almost all of them already.
Great video and welcome back Mr Nash.
Question, is the bottom of the notepad hidden on purpose while you write?
good to see you back devin
always enjoying the videos brother happy to see you posted a few videos happy to catch up on them
CAN’T SEE THE NOTEPAD DEVIN, IT’S LAGGING WAY BEHIND YOUR WRTING WHICH IS KILLIN ME
Thanks for the Brawlhalla shoutout!!! We still feel pretty underground haha
Interesting to watch this 6 months later and see what predictions have borne out... OW2 was a dud and CDL is on a huge down turn, major names retiring...Multiversus exploded, though even at its lowest state its still bigger than 80% of its competitors...FGC is about to have a HUUUGE renaissance with Street fighter 6, Tekken 8, AND Mortal Kombat 12 all releasing in 2023. AND CS:GO just hit peak concurrents after 10+ years of being available.
Great video Devin. Learn alot everytime. Stayed the whole video btw
WELL!!!! That was an extremely information dense video over a short
amount of time! I firmly enjoyed it and had a lot of insights into it.
There's a ton of things to think about when it comes to how investors should
judge whether the market will steer in a certain direction, and I think
it's important to not take a neutral, statistics only approach with
the exclusion of not so tangible developments such as business politics,
cultural development and trends, outside markets that may have either direct
or cursory influence on the market, etc.
I also took the time to look terminology on investopedia and kind of dive
into some of the concepts you present, and educate myself on more in-depth
topics. I dived into a lot during my 7 hour deep dive into your talk on
my stream. I find this kind of stuff absolutely fascinating and am always
eagerly awaiting your next talk.
Thank you so much for everything you do, and I love the work you do for
both your RUclips as well as Patreon.
FGC by and large bootstraps, so it's no wonder that they're earning their growth rather than trying to force an esports ecosystem in their game.
(I'm risking posting this before finishing the video, but I think my point will still stand, and I'm not sure if Devin will explicitly call it out or not)
you have no idea how many FG players can't wait for Riot to come and "legitimize" the scene and show the japanese devs what's up with Project L, it's actually kind of hilarious
@@AIRFGC Hearing that comment, makes me think of the RTS scene... and how Stormgate is going to save RTS eSports because the people working there did SC2.
@@AIRFGC that, because it's good to get large optics on the scene which can then help the other scenes grow, at least with how fighting games work, and also using the bootstraps phrase as an unironic statement is hilarious
@@AIRFGC not to mention Riot's games tend to have a lot of longevity. So people can put time into it and feel like its not just the flavor of the month.
@@AIRFGC Problem with Riot is that, just like Valorant, they want to make it exclusive to the point where you simply will have a VERY hard time getting in, to the point you will have to spend alot for very little returns, and potentially have orgs operating at a loss.
So, imagine a player that's damn good in your region, and has proven to be one of the best in the world. If they don't pass some arbitrary type of shit (I.E. Franchise system in LoL or whatever type of shit they are currently implementing in Valorant, which is currently causing controversy), they can't get in, as well as grassroots tournaments will have to shut down... that kills the scene...
I absolutely love your videos ! Great delivery on a bunch of information. I do think the mic volume is a bit low though broski. I’ve got my AirPods in my ear on max volume and it’s still pretty low. Much love though !
Great video, watched the whole thing
I'm always here man! Love hearing your takes on things.
Appreciate the insight!
Always appreciate the insight.
Would be curious to hear your thoughts on the Rocket League esports ecosystem as it shares many of easy-access / low-barrier benefits of the FGC, but also has more direct developer support.
What really sucks about the CDL, is that the Call of Duty pro scene and community used to be so great. Tons of big names, lots of content and the Tournaments even hit over 300k viewers at one point as far as i remember. Then came OWL and Activision wanted to do the same to Call of Duty as they did with Overwatch. Activision completely killed the community by stopping any kind of third-party tournaments. MLG used to be great, but instead of just using them and their format, Activision just had to do it themselves, and of course ended up fucking it up for everyone. Combine that with the Call of Duty games getting worse and worse year after year, it's no surprise that CDL is a dumpsterfire as well.
This video largely focused on North American and, thus, League teams. I think an analysis of European orgs more involved in the CS scene would be very interesting. The publisher-tournament-team dynamic is different, contributing to overall healthier and more sustainable orgs.
The CS scene right now is extremely unhealthy for a different set of reasons, ESL is almost a monopoly and is owned by the Saudi's and player salaries are enormous compared to the return most teams are making.
@@TheOnlyThrasher Salaries outside the top 10- paying teams are nothing. And there's no job security, they can be dropped at any minute and lose everything. Sure, a small fraction of them parlay their pro-career into something bigger, but that's by no means a majority of them.
it took me 8 hours to get 22 minutes into this video. Glad you're back.
I love the last second perspective on call of duty with "sells every October / November and nobody can figure out why". I'm in sales so I love getting the bird's eye view of it. Thanks for making the video
i was here the entire video (: thank you for this analysis, always love to know your take on things!
It's been a while. Good to see some content!
I mean even look at league worlds, comparing it to irl sports the gameplay changes so fast and so much.
Seeing certain comps, items, playstyles, and such very often means they are not currently playable or atleast nearly as good.
love the videos!!!!
made it to the secret session. Love the esports vids
Made it to 32 minute shout out wall. Thanks for doing this video. Not enough content about this because everyone who knows this is financially tied to the ecosystem and thus can't say anything :X
Devin, we study marketing here! This is a crowd savvy to Betteridge's Law of Headlines!
Babe wake up Devin Nash posted
Awesome stuff. really enjoyed the breakdown of the current state of affairs.
That's cool but what are you league starting?
Welcome back
To be honest, esports in North America was only ever really massive with League of Legends. CSGO has had it's moments, especially that Boston Major run, but it's a far, far second to what LOL was when it started. OWL, CDL, Smite, WoW, etc never really even made a splash in what LOL esports was during that S3-S7 prime era.
I think it's died down because most of the player base that watched has just gotten older and doesn't care anymore. North America has never(bar C9 worlds Semis, and CLG plus TL making MSI finals) been competitive internationally either. Combine that with the removal of the relegation system and the LCS just has no high end stakes that are worth watching.
It had it's time but the decline is in full effect.
Do you know why? Because NA never won. I don't see where world of warcraft could even be considered as an esport since its more of a grindfest than a competitieve pvp game.
@@nushia7192 if you read my comment you would see where I said that. WoW arena while not the most popular esport was/is still an esport. Azael from the LCS used to be a caster for the events.
Good insight, would like to see E-sports Europe focused video.
We need a CDL video devin with this franchising ,player salaries and the views. 200k for CDL champs sunday
A big reason for some of the high valuations is the real estate that the teams own
Thanks for the vidya cheeto man
Secret callout! I’m loving the content
Really appreciate this vid, was curious how esports was gonna take the current climate. I’d love to see a CDL vs OWL comparison video if you’re interested in covering those
We've just done an interesting market analysis of sports vs esports - while NFL teams for example are quite close in Social Media growth like major organisations like FaZe Clan, 100 Thieves, TSM and so on, they have 10x more brand sponsors and also a good 10x more in revenue - teams like Tom Brady Buccaneers bring in a good 300M a year, most esports orgs are hovering around the 40M mark.
So a hopeful future as LoL esports watcher includes less revenue of the league for Riot and more money for the teams, but I would also hope to see a bubble reduction through actual profitable team managment instead of a ouright burst of the bubble and collapse of some teams/Spots. Somewhat of the same outcome anway, if that happens at some point at all.
Secret Callout section!
What do you think Riot will change if they get into the FGC with their future game coming out?
The problem is that teams get money from league to invest in other franchised games that are much more overpriced and not profitable at all. Don't get me wrong, riot is no saint (quite the opposite actually), but I also would not like to give more share for the teams knowing they would use that money on my competitors...
Here at 32 minutes. Great stuff, appreciate it.
Hi Devin! I won't bite the mid-video call to action bait but I'll absolutely bite on the request of the OWL video, would love to hear your thoughts on the history of that absolute disaster.
A question I do have regarding League viewership, specifically LCS: how do you think costreaming has affected the viewership? Personally I loved the costreaming of 2020-2021 and was tuning in every week to watch Sneaky, Meteos and Doublelift but so far this year I've only tuned in for the super weeks where costreaming was allowed. Do you have any insight as to why they limited it the way they did this year? I have all of the guesses everyone else does (lack of main broadcast viewership, inability to develop their own narrative) but I was wondering if you had any deeper input than my vague guesses!
I got to the top secret never before seen half way point callout 😎
Hey i rarely comment on RUclips but i love your videos diving into e-sports. I would love to see a video about OWL and what its problems are. I was a huge fan of Overwatch when it came out and followed the league for the first 2 years so id like to see why it failed
Same
@@JimboTMX it's impossible to watch for anyone that doesn't play the game. COD and CS are easy to watch and understand for even people that don't play the games, but abilities and all the different mechanics of OW make it very difficult to keep track of for a casual viewer. It's constant meta shifts are also constantly changing how it's played, and not often for the better. Add in poor management by A-B, and you have a less accessible game, being run poorly, and it is rapidly failing.
I want to see Devin Nash evaluate the other esports
I've been saying player contracts have been getting out of hand for years now. LCS teams can only say "No League team is profitable we are planning to profit in the future." We are now several years with these teams being franchised they need to start showing profit at some point. If another company didn't show profit after 5 years they would be closed.
There is few things that will make me stop what i am doing and give my full attention. But this kind of content definitley does.
LETS GOOOOOOO new video!!
Mid vid CTA represent! 32:20
32:10 Secret callout section gang. lol. I think the Microsoft acquisition of Blizzard could extend the life of OWL IF it's still viable by 2024. New ownership means new direction for the league and their commitment to cleaning up the company which could bring back sponsors. Viewership and interest will see a boost because it's a new game.
Also, Overwatch 2 looks the same because the PvP side of OW2 was not the main focus of development for years, it was the PvE. They've only had a short amount of time to truly dedicate to PvP, you add in Covid, lawsuits, layoff, Bobby making the team work on different things other than OW and you can see why the development looks underwhelming to this point. I'm still disappointed in what I've seen so far and I no longer play because I simply don't enjoy the game anymore and that's fine, I got 4+ years out of it but if OW2 looks good then I'll give it a shot.
33 minutes in and I am loving this. Crazy how this video is still relevant in 2023.😮
32:30 still here
I really liked this video and decided to become a patron to learn more about marketing and the other things you stated. But I was wondering if you could make a video that goes over valorant as they are franchising but riot is paying the teams instead of teams paying millions to get into the league.
32:28 I'm Here. Actually waiting on the FGC take of Esports since I've been a competitor for the past 13 years. Now even though I might have a general idea of why, I'm curious on your take as to why the market for FGC Esports isn't necessarily getting the same amount of love as the MOBA and FPS side. Unpausing now.
Just listened to the FGC portion of the video. Surprised me enough to reevaluate my thoughts on how the community can prosper, but at the same time I'm just wondering how the player base can grow as big as the FPS and MOBA communities.
@@JPBreganza in short it can’t the top players will dominate it’s hard to be good at a fighting game requires tons of experience and execution so a smaller community will exist because of it
Didn't think my day would get any better and then the second-best dancer on twitch posts a video
also fell in love with multiversus! never played a fighting game
Been a long time. ❤
You may want to amplify your vocals slightly. It is quiet compared to most videos. It is fine without background music, however.
Also, an interesting topic to return with. FGC... The takeaway is that when competitive isn't smothered in money - and the key word "reasonable" (as in, not what "Venture Capitalists" are after...) is interesting also when viewed in contrast with some of the corporate-polluted leagues that are viewed as troubled or "doomed".
Agreed with my headphone his voice is so quiet even with max volume
Devin is back?
As an OWL fan....actual good takes! After this season there is no more guaranteed money from broadcast deals so the league is going to be in a very weird spot financially. The timer is ticking and the implosion is impending. We'll see how it is in a few years.
Largely agree with the video though.
Side note, I don't blame Devin or anything because this is just the meme right now but anybody who says OW2 is the same as OW1 haven't spent enough time with OW2 or figured out what you get with the update. Part of the community is pissed and saying OW2 is too different from OW1. They are also mad that OW1 is going away for good lol. So what is it? The same game or is it too different. Or both?
Would love to see a player's salaries video
I could care less about eSports but this 58 minute video was super interesting. I’d love to hear more about OWL and LCS.
Welcome back internet dad
Pog new devin nash dropped
The age-old adage remains, If you wanna make good money reliably, be an engineer, doctor, lawyer. If you wanna do what "feels good", is "fun", then you're esentially playing the lottery with your life.
Our prophet has returned! Praise be the day.
I wonder if the bubble could keep growing if e-sports didnt try filling stadiums for 'normal' games. The big stadiums make sense for finals/championships but you cant get that many nerds out to socialise every other day.
Edit: If I accidentally closed the video at 29:00 am I kicked out if the "Made it to XX min club"?
I was watching on my phone and still thought that was me with the sticky keys
the people that got ahead in esports are not the people that care but the people that were good at screwing clueless rich people outta money
I will not let you know if i have heard you do the call out
Only place I feel like I get the info I want about the overarching gaming sphere from the most knowledgeable person in the field
In all the videos that talked about e-sports that i had seen, noone talks about dota 2, idk if the e-sport in dota 2 is unique or cant be count in the bubble, because doesnt have franchise teams or paying to enter, also the international is made by fans money (the compendium) and has now a 40 million prize pool, i really want a video that talks about dota 2, its pros and cons, if is also going to crash or succed against the e-sport bubble.
One esport that you didn't touch on that I'd love to hear you talk about is Rocket League, imo it's one of the best positioned titles to succeed in the future bc of how attainable it is for scholastic teams to get approval from their schools to play. No guns or anything dying, just a car and some balls.
Vehicular homicide is no joke
New main channel video!!!
i'm at the 32 minute mark, now waiting for the FPS / Tactical Shooter version of this. Appreciate all the knowledge! One question that I have about the FPS scene - do you think Riot is doing Franchising too early for VALORANT? A lot of T2/T3 NA teams are pulling their VALORANT teams, I feel that it's shattering a lot players/orgs dreams especially when the game is just starting. Perhaps a comparison to Overwatch/CSGO?
made it to the callout section
With the whole OWL + RUclips there was also the decision to move servers to Google Cloud. So I wonder if the numbers you say are include or exclude to these numbers. As this will lower the payment per user drastically. And RUclips got all Activation/Blizzard tournaments, like CoD, Hearthstone, etc. Would have liked if these details were mentioned, etc.
secret call out miss you dev on scuff pod
got u dev
Everybody saying there hasn’t been content for 3 months clearly isn’t on the Patreon 😢
My impression is that this might not be the end of esports itself, but we might stop seeing a lot of major teams and major tourneys.
Secret callout section hype
Is this Devon comeback?
OMG at 12:08 I though it was my computer.
SECRET CALLOUT GANG.
Cost per viewer is so important to keep an eye on.