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5% Plus falls are receding dramatically |
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- Опубликовано: 5 сен 2024
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Alok is the Founder of Weekend Investing. He has been in the Indian stock markets for almost three decades now and is passionate about building rule based - non discretionary momentum investing models to invest in the markets that can generate superior returns compared to benchmarks . His dream is to try to help others achieve Financial Independence early so that life can be lived to the full, like it has for him.
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my strategy is simple: Invest at every 5% fall i.e., -5%,-10%, -15% and so on, as the market is made for going up in long term so build cashflows such that you have liquid during such 5%s fall.
Long term u mean?
@@coolfriend693 3years atleast
Do not do negative averaging unless you are 100% sure that the dip in price is not because of company's business downfall.
@@RahulShinde-vy1fp we can do this in an index, like niftybees, juniorbees,...
@@RahulShinde-vy1fp negative avging not bad as long as someone buying/selling the basket mutual fund/smallcase.
As a mutual fund investor I was a bit sad for election day fall but not panicked at all. I saw the market falling due to Russia Ukraine war and also incurred losses due to direct stock picking, so now I am a Lil bit experienced to face drawdowns.
I buy when I have the money. U just maintain 60:40 asset allocation. So drawdowns do not bother me.
The market often behaves like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between fall & rise. On average, it takes about 45 days for the market to recover from a downturn. It’s important to stick with your strategy and continue to support the winners in your portfolio. There’s no need to worry; staying the course and maintaining a steady approach will help you navigate through market fluctuations.
Thank you Alok for the pendulum analogy. The pendulum is presently one sided. It is coming to normal to rise back again.💥
Such a beautiful, feel good video. Thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it!
your daily bites with some out of the box content topics are gems for the long term investors, keep it doing, we learn a lot through this videos. thank you very much Alok sir & team.
I appreciate that!
Yes, very true, please continue to do the needful
I deployed fund in etfs near the second down leg in that chart and is already more than 10% up in a month and half. Someone picking right stocks might have made much much more.
Which one please?
@@rajjagconsultantgeologist7282 50% nifty bees, 30% nifty next and 20% midcap 150
If the markets are up I sell and if down I buy this I have been doing since the last 24 years. I would be happy if you could share some exit strategy as this will help me one hell of a lot. Thanks
Looks incomplete. Send your strategy on email and I will send you my thoughts.
I take Dec 5th 23 as a base reference for a huge fall, April 19/21 as moderate & June 4/5/6 as short fall limits. Recent event for micro fall is still going on. (may continue for 4 days.)
Ok
Better to exit partially from the market if someone did lumpsum recently, with only 5-10% profit and no cash further to deploy.
Very clear. Reality of share market behavior is clear from your presentation .every investor must be aware of this to benefit from share market.
Tks
Superb Alokji ...u are a true momentum investor
No doubt 🤠
We need more videos of such kind.. good work alok sir
I will try my best
@@sameer6356 He is technical guy and many times he has mentioned it. In this video, he talked about following his process. Now its up tp u how u take it. its his view and he is at liberty to express it
This euphoria won't end good.
No end is ever good. Life also
@@AlokJain
😅
And we develop progressive understanding & skills to make it a *stable exit* (साक्षिभाव)
That's what the objective is. 😊
Retail is having funds to invest. But the macro economy declining and savings not possible is the real risk of the mkt.
Ya
Market falling is good opportunity to find strong stocks at good price
🎯💯
Your videos have been fantastic, it changes the way to look towards the market and investing as a journey
Happy to hear that!
nasdaq was 2 years sideways form 2021 jan to 2024 jan. 35% down. nifty can also do the same any time.
Ok
Some stocks, so called overvalued had recovered rapidly 😊
Yes
What I see from your talk is we are in a bubble, higher LTCG in budget can be a daunting trigger, this will lower the liquidity
Ok
A new thought, and thank you..
tks
I was sad throughout the fall because I missed out so many great averaging opportunities as I didn't have any cash.
Never regret
I added 2.5% of cash in my portfolio to equity on 4th June
Ok
In some indexes, the election result losses were recovered within 15 days. The market fell again before the budget. Let's see if it'll recover within 3 days or 10 days.
Ya
"Thanks for the insights. Could you also explain the US market in detail? This will help diversify our understanding, as the US market is a good example to learn from in our financial journey. I appreciate your efforts in posting these videos.
Sure thing!
@@AlokJain can you please explain reassessment period if we invest in US markets ?
What is risk in investing in US sm from the taxation and Income Tax office point of view?
i heard that normal reassessment period is 3yrs but if we do US sm then its 16 years
Sir Love your content and one excellent thing i learnt is that let winners run and cut your loosers and i have made 1 strategy for myself regarding when i will exit
Nice work!
Is every 5% fall a buying opportunity for long term investors? Any criteria for adding more in an Index level fall?
yes, invest heavily at 5% fall is great rule
Yes, but always keep some more (20%) for further down levels.
It's not fun to see market is down & we have nothing to bait. 😅
@@rajjagconsultantgeologist7282 sir ji it's every 5% fall where we invest
Superb Analysis Sir and very informative and educational. Thank you and keep them going.😊
Keep watching
Very informative
Glad you think so!
As a long term investor I try to buy etfs with maximum fall on the day when nifty fals around 2% or more
Very useful video and information. I think this is the best strategy in any kind of market. I suggest all to follow sir and start momentum investing
Yes, you are right
Powerful insite
grt
I invested in smallcase with every 1.5-2% fall.. Since I have full faith in in smallcase strategy and it's manager..
Which small case and fund manager?
try to partial profit book in euphoria zone which can be there in next 5-6 months
I was anxious that day but i bought that dip. Will that count as panic?
Nope
Very nice..
Really appreciate ur efforts....
Thanks a lot 🙏
It's my pleasure
Sir
Currently no sgb is issuing at present moment,
Sgb in secondary market is not discounted,
Gold etf will have a tax of 30%..
How to invest in gold at present moment .?
Once it is clear IF nonmore sgbs coming existing premiums will go up
Getting the real wisdom
Thank you sir
Hi
This is very insightful data. The 5% falls and the recovery periods provide much clarity in reading the market and investor sentiments. On the election result day, I panicked but did not sell and was happily surprised in the next 3 days. Now I foresee a correction, so the only thought that keeps coming is whether to book a profit now and buy later at a 5 to 10% dip or stay invested as the market will recover for sure in the next 30 to 60 days. I love watching your videos, especially for the data analysis part. Thanks @AlokJain for your efforts!
Tks
Excellent analysis backed with data. Thank you sir
So nice of you
OUR MKT looking towards US ,BUDGET WILL BE ACCELERATOR
Yes
Only wrt defence stocks I panicked and sold it... Rest I added... HAL, Garden reach and Cochin ship...
Ok
i added to my momentum portfolio...
Lovely insights! Much appreciated Sir
Glad it was helpful!
Fantastic video. Keep it coming. Thank you
More to come!
I did nothing on the day of the crash. I judged that BJP will form the government by the end of the day on 4th Jun 2024. The next day, Jun 5th, I went long when Nifty was at 22,000.
I just sat through, didn't watch my portfolio
very positive. thanks Alok ji.
So nice of you
Sir based on these crazy returns a lot of my friends are making crazy plans like early retirement. what is a realistic return based on your backtesting one should expect from your momentum statergies. i am a NNF 10 subscriber.. wpould appriciate an answer so i can plan my retirement. Thankyou
There shd be no retirement
Sir slight correction. At 1:20 u said india market cap is 4L crore. Reliance alone is bigger than this. I think you missed few '00s
My mistake ...4 Trillion is what I intended
Sir. True. Cycles of bear market is less. But there is equal opportunity to make money like in bull market. Last week I experienced it. One has to be quick and has guts to risk. Also it takes a while to recover from bear market and provides scope to renter and enjoy bull phase again.
Good 👍
Just beautiful.
Thank you! Cheers!
I have never been panicked for last 5 years.
I bought in the next day of the fall
Terrific episode as usual. Keep it up.
Thanks again!
❤ Thank you for your analysis and guidance
You are so welcome
Took no action on this day, just waited and sticked to my rule on smallcase and mutual funds
Grt
Thanks a lot for such useful video
So nice of you
Thanks, appreciate the efforts.
No worries!
I bought some MF units that day before 1pm But unfortunately due to technical glitch the NAV date was T+1
In long term it does nt matter
I was 5.6% down that day, was shaken up. Since I've already experienced 2018 Small and Midcap fall topped up by Covid, the panic sell part is gone but does induce fear and nervousness. Sir, I would like to understand what startegy your Mi25 and Mi20 shall have if small and midcaps are gone into big time consolidation? Coz its easy to make money when everything's going up. One may need professional help to manage money during a small and midcap downturn, and I am considering the same.
nothing.. they will keep buying performer and kicking loser ..even selcted performer will become loser in portfolio.. it will be kicked out and new performer will add.. if this become loser in portfolio it will kicked out and new perfomer stock will be added and if it become loser.. it will kicked out .. and then after 6 month or year when market condition will be better then it will perform...
@@billionairequot_e When SMIDs are in bear phase, there are barely any stocks going up at that time, I've seen 2018-2019 and not even 10% were able to cross their 52 week or ATH. What would the startegy if it happens.
If underlying goes flat, we go flat
@@AlokJain Thank you, Sir.
@@billionairequot_e
Yes, good performer. But if we buy them at higher valuations (expecting it will rise more) but market falls (like in prsent scenario), invester may stuck for long duration with losses. So, need to keep watch on valuation, levels, trends PE etc.
Can we expect Bank Nifty to fall below 50,000 by 31/07/2024?
Maybe
Great content sir, thank you for sharing
My pleasure
14:23 Sir, you call it a self virtuous cycle. It also looks like a Ponzi scheme. 😮
Yup
I invested 94,208 rupees on June 4. On previous day I had invested 7k plus.
Bahut sahi. Jo daar Gaya woh ghar gaya.😅
Hi Alok, Many thanks for sharing very informative video. One request if i may - kindly see if it is possible to do similar analysis for weekly 5% fall on Nifty vs daily ? Thank you!!
Will try
@@AlokJain many thanks 🙏🏻
Though my unrealised profit was 1.5 lakh I held on but next day market crashed but I purchased more and made more profit in rest of the month and even more in July than jun....
Grt
Honest view
Thank you sir, a good idea to make a note of emotions 😂 I will start it
Go for it!
as always...........very informative video....alok bhai
Thanks a ton
Thank you Sir. Supported by data.
All the best
I am out from the market that day. Enter 7 june
Ok
Agle 10 saal 20% cagr mil jaye apna kaam ho jayega.
Sir I have bought your Mi20 small case, should I invest on Monday or shall I wait for next rebalance and then invest?
Jab Mann kare
I bought on the election day result
Sir, can you tell me about JSPL I bought @ 1020 , 2 lots in future. I didn't put stop loss.
Sorry cannot give specific advice. Whenever confused exit and rethink
holding on with trust
Yes
Excellent
Tks
Nice content
Good advice ❤
Glad it was helpful!
I sold some continuously loss making overvalued stocks. I have raymond with me. Please suggest shall iaverage?
Raymond toh bhaagega 10-15 din baad. Average kar lena aabhi thoda aur girega.😅
Sorry cannot
Thanks sir for video
So nice of you
Amazing logical analogy with facts and figures ! you are like fresh breeze of air. keep the good work going.
Glad you like them!
Good morning chacha
Hi Bhatije
I had 13 sell orders on 3 June and 45 buy orders on 4 June 24
hope i too mimic your style and courage
😊👍
Sar how u reacted on that day.
See my video of that day:)
Kya bakaiti kar rehe ho chacha
Kanpuria ho?
I love momentum and respect its manager because he has changed the way which i used to look at market.
Now i am fully comfortable with rising and falling market both and I sleep peacefully at every night regardless of market conditions. Love you sir. ❤
Keep it up
No harm to speak in Hindi
Ya no harm
I am not getting what you are trying to convey? Why are you making a video without analysis? Waste of time.
Sorry buddy. Cannot win em all
95% people Hindi ,only 5% English to for kiun English video,kam se one English one hindi
Ok
Good assessment