0% Returns in the Next 3 years ?
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- Опубликовано: 15 сен 2024
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Alok is the Founder of Weekend Investing. He has been in the Indian stock markets for almost three decades now and is passionate about building rule based - non discretionary momentum investing models to invest in the markets that can generate superior returns compared to benchmarks . His dream is to try to help others achieve Financial Independence early so that life can be lived to the full, like it has for him.
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No bullsh*t, all data! Love this content! Please keep this up.
tks
Fear and uncertainty create major wealth. It's those who take the risk and have strong gut to endure the bloody days. When i notice extreme dips i tend to actually move more money to Bitcoin.
I feel sympathy for our country, low income people are now suffering to survive yet inflation and recession keep increasing daily, many families can't even enhance the good cost of living anymore. You've helped me a lot Sir Brian! Imagine I invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Most underrated channel on investing in india, Hands Down ❤
Glad you think so!
Thanks for continues updates! I am super excited about how my stock investments is going so far, making over $13k every week is an amazing gain🥰
How? I know it's possible, I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it
I will advise you stop investing on your own and seek for guidance from a professional, I don't invest on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance
from my personal Financial advisor
YES! that's exactly her name (Julia Rosa) I watched her interview on CNN News and so many people recommended highly about her and her trading skills.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimony on CNBC news last week
Excellent data analytics. A real eye opener.
One question 🙋🏻♂️ -
How much can we rely on really old data points (pre 2008) because markets were very different back then. Retail participation was very low.
I understand retail can’t take the market up, but the markets are definitely much different from 2008 era now. How does it impact this analysis?
Tks...dont go too far back
Just crazy amount of insights in the way the data was presented. Thank you Alok ji...and the team for your efforts.
urw
Really loved this presentation! Can we have a similar data for 5Y time period, it would be interesting to see how data changes if you increase the horizon by just 2 years!
sure. another video.
In last slide : still 15℅ of the chance is to perform more than 13℅. (Seen in 1993-95 and 2004-06). So, Next 3 yrs cagr could be more than 30℅.
Question : when it happens (30-50℅ fwd cagr) after past 3 yes cagr more than 13℅?
Ans - When onetimer activity happens in the market... Harsad, 2004 is the one timer activity. Now the one timer activity is (MODI is a businessman PM with MP seats upto the mark only and high retail participation). So there is a chance of 15℅ that the next 3 yrs cagr is more than 30℅
You and your team are delivering world class amazing data analytics on Indian Stock Market as always ❤ thoroughly enjoying each episode with great eye opening insights
tks. pls share the video
Hello!
Shouldn't we consider the future expectations and the dynamics of the ever changing market?
Given, the unique situation of India and growing investor interest in stock markets (Retail), I'm positive (on the average returns).
Nonetheless, stock markets are unpredictable and correction can be seen any time (as you said).
I loved your research, by the way.
Thank you😊
Sir nice video.
1) Sir can you make video on gold returns since 1950 and what can be future prospects .
2) are there companies in market which we can hold for decades.
3) how to invest in dividend stocks ? How to choose them ? Can we get handsome dividends for long time
sure. gold we can do
Good information.. appreciate the data analysis. What I think, the GDP growth for next few yrs would be in the range of 7℅+, so avg nominal growth would be around 13-14℅. So Nifty to double in next 5 yrs. I don't see the old data replicating in coming several yrs until there is catastrophic situation in the world.. India is in a bull Run and we are around half way.. Pvt investment will increase and so will the earning.. Lot of money would be made in the next 5-10 yrs.. This time return might surpass the return which came during 2003-07. 😊
agree
Content was so good that I got into thinking mode and RUclips moved me into next video. Came back, searched for it and liking it. Super insightful 👍🏻
Welcome back!
A great content Alok. Thanks for your insight. Would request if in continuation of this video you could tweak your data from 2008 onwards when the economy was similar and take out the effects of black swan events like Covid etc. It will give more probability of likely market behaviour for next 03 years or relate your data with the economy growth between 6- 7 percent scenario ..
Tks..but cannot take out reality
Super Insightful!! Outstanding work by WeekendInvesting team. Kudos!
Much appreciated!
The effort by team weekend Investing 🙏 and the Alok Sir present it really help us people like me in who just start journey
Tks
This analysis on the nifty500 or nifty500 equal weight would be useful to understand if we should diversify going forward to protect capital and generate higher returns.
Sure will do
That's why we are doing SIP and sitting with a long term view (>7 yrs)
grt
Good, useful data. A point- earlier a lot dependence was on FII, few big players & v low retail participation. With retail now getting active, incrementally higher month on month, I hope history- for underperformce of -ve returns doesn't repeat. Though nothing can be predicted, assumptions can be optimistic. Thank you
Well said!
@@AlokJain thank you
You are best in data backed videos.
Only highly educated and gigh IQ people analyze data and give output.
Rest channels are just making people fool
Tks to my team mostly
I love the topics you choose to dissect past data to arrive at conclusions. Slicing and subsequent inferences were very interesting to know. One thing that you can add in these topics is - how even during the potential sub 10%/0% CAGR period, if one follows a rule-based investing (like yours) how they can beat the benchmark (e.g. Nifty50, Nifty 100) returns. This will be a nice marketing plug for you too 😇.
Otherwise looking at this data, most might decide to stay away from equity (at least for the next 3 years 😀) and park funds in the debt/fd.
sure
Fantastic piece of work. A pat on the back to you and your team. Please continue your good work with more such informative research
tks. pls share the video
Can you factor in growth in market participation in terms of Retail investor growth or SIP growth from Mutual fund houses? i mean is the growth in SIP and market participation by retail similar in any period last 3 decades as it was since 2020. I think that too would be a factor in predicting future.
sure. i dont know how to model that assumption.
Thanks. If i believe that the market will be in correction, in which stock/Gold/Debt should I invest?
Cannot predict
Your team is really doing appreciable work
Tks. i am lucky
Important to distinguish between NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 50 TRI. Current NIFTY 50 CAGR for last 3 years in 13.9% while the NIFTY 50 TRI CAGR is approx. 15.1%
What’s the difference between the two?
@@RazrmanTRI means Total Return Index. It includes price appreciation + dividend returns. In other case only price appreciation is calculated.
ok
Good research indeed! You may publish it in a reputed finance related journal. Thank you!
Good idea
What phenomenal research. Kudos to the team.
tks. pls share the video
you are doing good job by giving honest insight about market sir
Nice of you
The data indicates that don’t go for the markets as a whole, just try to find individual stocks which have the potential to
Best way to calculate the returns is to use 5 years CAGR between central budgets along with US recessions and other external factors.
ok
Good content..How will it change if we use 4 yr period instead of 3? Coz 4 has historically been cycle in past
will need to redo to find.
Great Insight... I studied data for Nifty Midcap 150 & Nifty Smallcap 250 Index for taking insight about returns those Indexes have given since year 2001/2005... Very Interesting result on 1 & 2 Year rolling returns on those indexes....Please make a video for those indexes as maximum retail money is being parked in small & midcap funds or stocks currently, so that they may have knowledge and understanding the risk they are taking currently if asset allocation has not done properly.
ok
After rate cuts if fiis come and invest in loads then ? Would your assumptions be nullified ? 2nd question even your small cases won't perform ? Will it be a stock pickers market ?
i cannot predict. if you can , go with it.
One more slice analysis for past 3yr vs next was before 2000 and now. Feel the market forces have greatly changed over last few years, so recalibration required
I really enjoy the solid stuff you have been delivering through your videos. Thanks a lot for your limitless service to the investor community. ❤
urw
Great work. Also provide the measures to sustain in fwd 3 years😊
Sure 😊
Great Analysis Alokji. Can this analysis be extended to momentum strategy? Meaning say what if one would have followed momentum strategy in those 31 years, how would their returns look like in those lull times? Easier said than done, analysis could be challenging but even if you can do it for a subset of a period, would be great. Thanks
crazy returns
Good analysis...buy How could you average everything... Shouldn't be the average to be grouped when the overall sentiment of the economic growth kept changing
Averages have their flaws
This is brilliant stuff! Nobody presents insights into the markets like this. This really makes one think. Anything less than a million subscribers for the channel is a travesty...
tks. pls share the video
So one hedge their sideways returns by investing in the companies which has 2-3X their profits in last 4 years but thier price is sideways.
Ex: hdfc bank kotak bank bajaj finance bajaj finserv page industries maruti suzuki infosys TCS CAMS idfc first etc..
Investing by selecting quality company and entering at right price with price action can save you in 2024-2028 period.
ok
History never repeats itself.. history is always made in the now..
ok
Who said... Lies ...Damn lies....Statistics?!??
Excellent vdo....i never miss any of them . am also subscriber to your small case
Thanks a ton
Wonderful observation. Data may not say wrong. Thank you sir🎉
So nice of you
This video is a gem 💎 it's a very vital point in the stock market with no high expectations, only genunity and realistic expectations with a real point of view. Thanks a lot for this video.
You are very welcome. Pls do share in your groups
Sir,
I am a sudscriber to one of you smallcase schemes.
Can you please make a video on performance of debt funds in case the interest rates go down? I am a retiree and wish to park some money in debt funds.
Regs,
Hari Joshi
not an expert in that .. but yes debt funds will do very well if int rates go down.
I have a similar theory but based more in technical chart analysis, it is when we connect the major tops of nifty 50, it forms a curve and same happens on bottoms and whenever it touches the curve the trend reverses, and acc to this I believe markets will stay sideways next 2 years almost and with a bottom of 22500
Ok
Very insightful analytics. Thanks to you and team. One query, looking at #of months, did you assume 1st of the month to compute Nifty change in 3 yrs interval? It will be interesting to see, how it shapes up for 5 yrs RolReturns
Tks
another day another study
all thought what you are saying is correct however you also need to understand that the market dynamics has changed a lot,the amount of funds inflows from domestic people & lack of dependency of foreign players needs consideration for the upcoming future.
another thing market has been much more matured that 1990s or 2000s, thus any big deviation from the mean is not to be expected .
ok. no prediction here. only assessment
Where do you see these charts is it available online ?
Moreover, how can we analyse these bases on human behaviour shift during this time. ?
Tradingview
Investing. Com
TV
Love your data backed analysis sir.
The visuals look great too.
love your content that is serious analysis without any noise, promotion and distraction. Keep it up.
Tks
Sir contents are fantastic 😍..... Please continue with all of them even in bear 🐻 markets. These will keep us motivated to be invested in momentum strategies. I am a mi20 subscriber.
tks. pls share the video
This would have been better with PE ratio PB value and Dividend yield. Which would explain better correlation.
ok
The market is expected to grow and is bullish considering to factors like GDP growth projection, favorable government policies, global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and international trade policies. May be for a short period it may consolidate...Thank you Alok!
tks. pls share the video
Another way is to do the analysis till 2022 and then predict 2023/2024. The data would have suggested a higher probability of sub 10% return in 2023/2024 which did not happen. So structural changes, liquidity from Financial system etc. played a big role in these years, also sentiment was high. So I wonder would data based analysis helped to make money or not. Going forward, Elliot wave also predicts sub par returns. Also, promoters are slowly selling and retail is buying, SIPs are getting bigger, IPO in big frenzy. So take a bet!!!!
Okay!
commendable analysis. Thanks
Most welcome!
Can you please make an analysis taking a portfolio of 50% equity and 50% debt.. on 3 year rolling return ..
Data speaks loud and clear 👍
Tks
External factor effects this analysis due to digitalization earlier the financial literacy was less and not all had the demat account at their finger tips so I feel for another 2 years we will see cagr might rise by 13 percent and then gets saturated
Ok
Eye opener and makes you aware not to invest with illusionary expectations. Thanks.
😂😂😂 sell kardo...
Urw
Sir, thanks for the wonderful information, instead of the standard 3 years timeframe, is it possible to take length of the bull market and returns and forecast the length of the bear market and returns ?
Sure. Next time
@@AlokJain thanks sir, It is hard (i don’t know) to do the analysis, but when we listen, can understand a little, it will improve our perspective about the stock market.. your insights about gold is also awesome. Thank you 🙏🏽
Thank You Sir, for you and your team, bringing out these hidden aspects.
tks. pls share the video
Really really appreciated sir for sharing such a wonderful data
So nice of you
Great research chanel for investors 🎉 keep rocks
Thanks, will do!
Loved the data driven approach!!! Please keep up the good work!
Tks
Nice Video..
Plss do analysis of gold return with Gold(Jewellery stocks like Kalyan,titan etc)
Can we hold these companies share instead of Gold?
I never mix gold allocation with gold stocks
@@AlokJain Thank You 🙏🏻
Thanks for such insightful information,which is beyond my imagination...❤
Rgds
Superb data. Superb analysis. Thanks a ton! 🙏🙏🙏
Tks
Sir will you plan to include Liquidcase as well to your evergreen smallcase if you believe there wont be big returns in future
sure
So did u analyzed why those slump periods came? Do we have a similar why looming on the country ?
There are dozens of reasons of a slump. Not one. Follow price and not reason
This is really superb content, gives us lot of insights on the market. Prepares us for the rational journey in the market. Request you to the keep the good work going on . I am learning a lot from your videos , as there is no institution which gives official knowledge of markets.
Thanks, will do!
Sir always like your valuable knowledge and like your momentum investing strategy.
tks. pls share the video
great work Team weekend investing.
tks
6-7% gdp growth rate, how this trajectory will be maintained for next 15 years? Govt is in no mood to doing any big bang reform (ex, privatisation)without 9-11% growth rate is it possible to maintain this trajectory for longer time? What is ur view on this?
i cannot predict. so far larger govt is filling in for smaller pvt capex... that shd change
Thanks for the Video Sir !
tks. pls share the video
Could you please also do a sector-wise cagr study for periods when overall markets gave less than 13% cagr and more than 13% cagr respectively? Can we get some clues out of it as to which sectors one should focus on during both of these times? Thanks
will try
Thank you sir 🙏
So nice of you
Sir your team is really great and thanks for the hardwork.
URW
There are a lot of retail investors now, even a crash or correcrion will be really short, in my opinion
right
Thanks for the video but I believe comparing the markets to the 90s scenario is not quite right. There was negligible retail participation in the 90s. India’s position wasn’t also that great to begin with.
Things have changed and alot of VCs are joining the race. This changes alot of things.
The rise of fintech companies has also changed alot of things. Sure, there can be corrections but I’m still positive about India’s story till 2030.
ok., sure
I am still bullish on the indian markets. All these past data do not account for consistent 22000 Cr of monthly inflows by retail investors. This behaviour was test during Hamas attack, russian-ukrain war, global economic slowdown, Japanese Yen fiasco, Hinderburg 2.0 and more. Not one of these events changed Investor behaviour. And this retail participation is only going to increase. I just do not see a correction happening even in the short term unless there's a black swan event.
True. But that doesn't mean the earnings of the companies will also move at the same pace as the valuation. It will only mean that the stock prices are being pumped by Liquidity and not backed up by earnings. This is what leads to huge bubbles and eventually a huge crash.
retailers are purchasing shares not goods by which companies grow. A day will come then it will be like giving company as a gift
Not 22000 cr
Its gross
See the net inflow
Its 6-8000 cr@@AnilSharma-ft2mx
Good to know. But things are changing, market behaviour is different in recent times. Let's hope for the better.
sure
One fundamental flaw in your approach:
You are looking in the rear view mirror and driving. While you should do that, but major insights should come from present scenarios in macro and micro
Ok. We don't forecast. Leaving that for astrologers
fauji Sangwan ka chela detected 🤣
Like the way you present data in simpler way. Was wondering if you could make some charts for factor based indexes which are back tested say 15 or 20 years.
rapid change of indices renders most back tests useless.
13% is very misleading since there was a lot of outliers of 40%+ way back.....i dont think we should take avg we should take median....
Ok
Very informative data, Good work by you and your team.
Tks
nice and very good info, thank you
Tks
very interesting data .... Thanks for details analysis and hard work
Tks
Great analysis . Thanks for the reminder.
tks. pls share the video
Just goes on to prove that so much is unpredictable in the markets......
The data has to be calculated post 2008 separately following quantitative easing method applied by central banks....
More importantly we may get to some conclusion if we tweak around with data comparison at 13 pc to a hypothetical 10 pc Or other permutations....
ya
Nicely summarized
tks
There are some data discrepancies in the analysis. For ex, you mentioned in 1995 Mar, Apr the CAGR were negative and Jun it's positive and same way FWD CAGR in the same year showed similar discrepancies.
Secondly, what's the point of looking NIFTY CAGR? you will end up in to law of large numbers reality.
ok. request pls drop us a mail with your points of discrepancy. team will check
Fantastic content ❤🎉
tks. pls share the video
Seedhi Baat and no Bakwas , look forward to your posts everyday
Great!
good information shared!
Glad it was helpful!
Ab aapke videos pe add bhi aane lge hain… paisa hi paisa hoga 🎉
lol
So the view is 2/3rd chance of growth below 10%, does this mean we take a dip and bounce through coming 3 years or remain where we are for next 3 years , if the probability was true. Any other chances ?
And also, this is for Nifty which hasn't performed well with its smaller peers.
Either we run with lower probability of 1/3rd beating 13% or the smaller peers experience a more wilder swings or corrections.
ok
Lesson 1. ...never time the market..here that's what you doing...
should have done with snp500 since indian data is very short and its highly skewed
Ok