This video is very interesting, and one thing that I think is applied but not fully delineated in the argument is the fact that Jayser as a top-tier 40knl crusher is clearly in the 99.999999th percentile in figuring out awkward spots, and therefore does not need to fear the post-flop aspect of calling as much as everybody else does. I worked in basketball analytics for a long time before transitioning into other fields, and poker is one that made a lot of sense. One of the things that I always had to be very conscious of was that among the guys I worked with, a player who is the top 150th player in the world (aka, the worst starter in the NBA) should be approaching late shot clock situations than, say, the 60th best player in the world, and in the rare instance where I worked for a top 15-20 player in the world, well, the data really implied that there weren't a lot of wrong answers for that guy in general. This video is very similar to getting the ball with 5 seconds on the shot clock: For us mere mortals, make a quick decision that is weighed towards taking the best available option on your immediate read. For the guys like Damian Lillard or Anfernee Simmons, they have the luxury of also just Isoing and creating a shot without the need to take what the defense is giving up, even in a 5 second shot clock situation. We're the starter carving out a living, Jayser has already mastered that role, and now he's moved onto chasing the crazy thin added EV that isn't worth pursuing for the rest of us.
Posting for the algorithm for ya again, nice video sir! Always great to have a good and constructive debate. I felt the call was better at first, but after all the debate and having had a lot of time pass to mull it over it's definitely quite close and obviously there are a lot of assumptions going on in everyone's thought process to reach their conclusion. My main feelings with regards to what makes what better depends heavily on how strong the MP range is... I think your guys' arguments about getting the reg out and fish still calling with worse hands is definitely a good argument. I think as long as the thought process makes sense, then you're unlikely to be making a mistake. Again, there are a lot of assumptions in how we perceive MP/BT to react here for each of us to reach our own conclusions and it appears that either action is likely +EV. Thanks again for the video, and good luck at the tables!
i like jaysers approach in terms of how he would adjust his 3betting range and adding a flatting in MP vs an UTG openraise to play more hands and get in more spots against the rec on the btn. Even if i like his approach in the end hes just projecting his thoughts onto a player that potentially just plays 95% of the time his standard range not even realizing how he could adjust in any form. The NL 100 rake also should be quite unfavourable for having a calling range and not sure if its even possible to gain enough ev the times you wont get squeezed and see a flop multiways out of position vs the recreational (as MP with adding a calling range).
Agreed! - In fact, for Jayser, the analogy is turned around: Cold-calling is " bribing the dragon" ; - he pays the immediate EV gained from the 4-bet, taking larger risks, to maximize exploitatively in the long run against the fish. Not advisable for the vast majority of us, who are better off with the smaller gains from not making a deal with the dragon. 🙃
Nice video. Although the dragon analogy is interesting, I don’t think it’s very accurate, as it did not consider the fact that other player might 5bet shove
It depends on many human variables. If the players were globally static in their ranges, and had predefined post-flop actions, then obviously there is a GTO answer for that configuration. But obviously it depends on what one thinks the reg's HJ/UTG 3bet range is, as well as cold calling range, what the fishes range is, how much a reg will have "regret" trying to isolate the fish, etc. You all should know there isn't a clear answer here, and it's a bit hilarious to me the ego involved.
Seems like one of those rare spots that if you spend any longer than a minute thinking about, you're investing your time poorly. It's like trying to determine if there's a thousand grains of sand in a bucket, or a thousand and one grains of sand in a bucket. Very over the top precision for a very rare spot. Good video non the less
4bet or fold since I would never realize my equity as good as a solver when I call out of position.-> I would be inclined to fold but I am also used to NL10 ranges.
My thought is that typically in these spots in which highly competent professionals disagree it's usually very close in theory and probably won't be a major EV swing either way; or, at the very least, the EV swing will be so highly sensitive to what ranges (and possible reactions to both 4b and call) we assign both MP and BU that one really can't say definitively without having a better read on those ranges. My gut instinct was to 4b, but it's not a hill I'd be willing to die on.
Playing AQo 3 way in a relatively deep SPR scenario is horrendous. I would 4 bet or fold. If MP jams, such is life. Also, asssuming MP is 3 betting a polarized range just because of one fish on the BTN I don't think is bulletproof. There are still other 3 people to care about that can squeeze.
1 we can't realy discount AK from rec range 2 we can't be sure that we deny pocket equity in rec range 3 we can't realy be sure he calls 4b w broadways 4 mp is polarized, so he can Just shove a lot, we cant realy respond to that with too dialuted by AQo range 5 we want to call wide enough here because of rec, and our calling range would be too weak unless we have enough strong aces, since AK is always 4 we would be to weak on A-highs. Also when we have strong calling range we have a right to make a lot of pressure postflop and get more respect for our bets 5 we want some weak aces and queens in spot with rec, we much likely get pay off from it more the we win pre, cause Sometimes get pushed, Sometimes get called by stronger. Also we can Steel find some herofolds and blufs 6 we May chose some less equity hands to deny polarized range
i think, it doesnt even matter, if there is an EV difference in this play, is super minimal, i would just pick one and whatever, either option is fine, the post flop would have waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more EV to discuss, i think it literally doesnt matter whatever you chose.
I think that one very important aspect you haven't considered is that all the simulations for this spot assume that all three players are playing GTO strategy postflop. This is not realistic, as there is a fish in the pot. If we do go postflop, we stand to gain more equity than in a GTO simulation, as we are now playing against a fish. Therefore, we need to consider the frequency with which we see the flop when we 4-bet, taking into account the increased EV when we do go postflop against (also, most of the time we play HU pot vs fish) the fish and the larger pot size.
That is actually a fair point :) But bear in mind the reg’s range is stronger than ours, so he will probably capture most of the EV that the fish loses.
I think that when I 4-bet, which I'd be apt to do, I'm going to end up blasting off too frequently if I get called, and then I'm going to feel sad. If I just over-call the 3-bet, I'll probably just miss the flop and my losses will be limited to ~6.5bbs most of the time, which won't even register on the pain scale. I cannot not appreciate the significance of a gain in EV of 1/4 a BB when the alternative is going to often cost me a third or all of my stack.
0.25bb translates into 25bb/100 hands, which is pretty significant :) But you’re right that in order for the 4bet to be worth 0.25bb, we need to have some idea of what to do postflop.
My guess is he would 4bet too, he made an excellent video about why cold callers make us want to squeeze more linear: ruclips.net/video/m8B6ecZM7uI/видео.html
I don't think the thread discussed (in detail) the differing opinions on how btn fish proceeds vs the 4b preflop HU & vs MP call. MP's range vs 4b preflop too. Does he actually jam JJ pure, how does he proceed w/ AQo vs a 4b as inordinate amounts of UTGs 4b EV w/ AQo come from this FE and also facing less jams. All these factors preflop then need to be weighted against the differing scenarios postflop (mainly playing HU vs a loose fishes cc 3b range) For these reasons I heavily prefer 4b as I think it over performs vs MP reg and ofc we can assume (from BTN cc data) that it's a value 4b and as pointed out here doesn't lose EV vs MP underfold.
For sure, it’s a really complicated decision. And you’re definitely right that what MP does with JJ is a major factor as well - jam all the time and it really hurts the EV of 4betting.
@@PokerGiraffe it was definitely a cool discussion and really highlights how convoluted it can get trying to traverse the gametree ESPECIALLY when you throw recreationals into the mix!
Why is rake never mentioned in the conversation? Surely it must have a big impact on the final decisions when EVs are super close between each. I would auto fold this vs a std fish for example in high rake 50-200nl GG pool.
You may be OOP but you have the best relative position to MP who's the last aggressor.. 4betting this trash kind of feels like setting you up for complications against a bad player who might still have AK or a monster, or even a hand that plays well with MP probably blocking some of your hits when he folds.. I see a good opportunity to just play it weak and take a flop given the nice pot odds.
There’s an optimal strategy that exists against the way fish play and that is also a GTO strategy, just not an equilibrium strategy where both players are playing optimally.
If we could lock all the fish strategy (in every nodes) then we would play a subgame of poker with other regs, and there would be a GTO for this subgame.
in real time, ull be oop, with 2 ppl, u dont know the ranges of, u look at solver, and the solve knows all the combos, in real time, ull be OOP with a hand that plays pretty shit oop, vs 2 ppl, who have position on you, and ur way more blind, than when u give a solver 2 ranges to give you output from
@@ImDrizzt really can't tell what you're trying to say. 4betting defines their ranges more and often makes it so you're not playing multiway. "u dont know the ranges" ok great, are we putting 72o in there? or are we making some reasonable assumptions?
This video is very interesting, and one thing that I think is applied but not fully delineated in the argument is the fact that Jayser as a top-tier 40knl crusher is clearly in the 99.999999th percentile in figuring out awkward spots, and therefore does not need to fear the post-flop aspect of calling as much as everybody else does. I worked in basketball analytics for a long time before transitioning into other fields, and poker is one that made a lot of sense. One of the things that I always had to be very conscious of was that among the guys I worked with, a player who is the top 150th player in the world (aka, the worst starter in the NBA) should be approaching late shot clock situations than, say, the 60th best player in the world, and in the rare instance where I worked for a top 15-20 player in the world, well, the data really implied that there weren't a lot of wrong answers for that guy in general. This video is very similar to getting the ball with 5 seconds on the shot clock: For us mere mortals, make a quick decision that is weighed towards taking the best available option on your immediate read. For the guys like Damian Lillard or Anfernee Simmons, they have the luxury of also just Isoing and creating a shot without the need to take what the defense is giving up, even in a 5 second shot clock situation. We're the starter carving out a living, Jayser has already mastered that role, and now he's moved onto chasing the crazy thin added EV that isn't worth pursuing for the rest of us.
Posting for the algorithm for ya again, nice video sir! Always great to have a good and constructive debate. I felt the call was better at first, but after all the debate and having had a lot of time pass to mull it over it's definitely quite close and obviously there are a lot of assumptions going on in everyone's thought process to reach their conclusion. My main feelings with regards to what makes what better depends heavily on how strong the MP range is... I think your guys' arguments about getting the reg out and fish still calling with worse hands is definitely a good argument. I think as long as the thought process makes sense, then you're unlikely to be making a mistake. Again, there are a lot of assumptions in how we perceive MP/BT to react here for each of us to reach our own conclusions and it appears that either action is likely +EV.
Thanks again for the video, and good luck at the tables!
i like jaysers approach in terms of how he would adjust his 3betting range and adding a flatting in MP vs an UTG openraise to play more hands and get in more spots against the rec on the btn. Even if i like his approach in the end hes just projecting his thoughts onto a player that potentially just plays 95% of the time his standard range not even realizing how he could adjust in any form. The NL 100 rake also should be quite unfavourable for having a calling range and not sure if its even possible to gain enough ev the times you wont get squeezed and see a flop multiways out of position vs the recreational (as MP with adding a calling range).
Great points!
Agreed! - In fact, for Jayser, the analogy is turned around: Cold-calling is " bribing the dragon" ; - he pays the immediate EV gained from the 4-bet, taking larger risks, to maximize exploitatively in the long run against the fish. Not advisable for the vast majority of us, who are better off with the smaller gains from not making a deal with the dragon. 🙃
Nice video. Although the dragon analogy is interesting, I don’t think it’s very accurate, as it did not consider the fact that other player might 5bet shove
I think the one variable that is not quantified is 'we want to play hands with the fish'. Post flop mistakes could make the ev of calling better.
The same mistakes also increase the EV of calling though! Probably by a bigger margin, since we will often be HU with the fish.
It depends on many human variables. If the players were globally static in their ranges, and had predefined post-flop actions, then obviously there is a GTO answer for that configuration. But obviously it depends on what one thinks the reg's HJ/UTG 3bet range is, as well as cold calling range, what the fishes range is, how much a reg will have "regret" trying to isolate the fish, etc. You all should know there isn't a clear answer here, and it's a bit hilarious to me the ego involved.
I AM DRUNK RIGHT NOW, BUT MORE I WATCHED YOUR CONTENT, MORE I THINK U R THE GOAT AT EXPLAINING POKER
Seems like one of those rare spots that if you spend any longer than a minute thinking about, you're investing your time poorly. It's like trying to determine if there's a thousand grains of sand in a bucket, or a thousand and one grains of sand in a bucket. Very over the top precision for a very rare spot. Good video non the less
4bet or fold since I would never realize my equity as good as a solver when I call out of position.-> I would be inclined to fold but I am also used to NL10 ranges.
My thought is that typically in these spots in which highly competent professionals disagree it's usually very close in theory and probably won't be a major EV swing either way; or, at the very least, the EV swing will be so highly sensitive to what ranges (and possible reactions to both 4b and call) we assign both MP and BU that one really can't say definitively without having a better read on those ranges. My gut instinct was to 4b, but it's not a hill I'd be willing to die on.
Playing AQo 3 way in a relatively deep SPR scenario is horrendous. I would 4 bet or fold. If MP jams, such is life.
Also, asssuming MP is 3 betting a polarized range just because of one fish on the BTN I don't think is bulletproof. There are still other 3 people to care about that can squeeze.
I think 4bet is a better option for this case! But, if I face the same situation, I would fold my AQo because I am a fish :)
Why does it say in the subtitles, "jayser, better known as OBORRA" ? Wtf, OBORRA is a known cheater
1 we can't realy discount AK from rec range
2 we can't be sure that we deny pocket equity in rec range
3 we can't realy be sure he calls 4b w broadways
4 mp is polarized, so he can Just shove a lot, we cant realy respond to that with too dialuted by AQo range
5 we want to call wide enough here because of rec, and our calling range would be too weak unless we have enough strong aces, since AK is always 4 we would be to weak on A-highs. Also when we have strong calling range we have a right to make a lot of pressure postflop and get more respect for our bets
5 we want some weak aces and queens in spot with rec, we much likely get pay off from it more the we win pre, cause Sometimes get pushed, Sometimes get called by stronger. Also we can Steel find some herofolds and blufs
6 we May chose some less equity hands to deny polarized range
i think, it doesnt even matter, if there is an EV difference in this play, is super minimal, i would just pick one and whatever, either option is fine, the post flop would have waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more EV to discuss, i think it literally doesnt matter whatever you chose.
I think that one very important aspect you haven't considered is that all the simulations for this spot assume that all three players are playing GTO strategy postflop. This is not realistic, as there is a fish in the pot. If we do go postflop, we stand to gain more equity than in a GTO simulation, as we are now playing against a fish. Therefore, we need to consider the frequency with which we see the flop when we 4-bet, taking into account the increased EV when we do go postflop against (also, most of the time we play HU pot vs fish) the fish and the larger pot size.
That is actually a fair point :)
But bear in mind the reg’s range is stronger than ours, so he will probably capture most of the EV that the fish loses.
I think that when I 4-bet, which I'd be apt to do, I'm going to end up blasting off too frequently if I get called, and then I'm going to feel sad. If I just over-call the 3-bet, I'll probably just miss the flop and my losses will be limited to ~6.5bbs most of the time, which won't even register on the pain scale. I cannot not appreciate the significance of a gain in EV of 1/4 a BB when the alternative is going to often cost me a third or all of my stack.
0.25bb translates into 25bb/100 hands, which is pretty significant :)
But you’re right that in order for the 4bet to be worth 0.25bb, we need to have some idea of what to do postflop.
Loved this video, many theory based concepts hidden within this. I'd be super interested to get Uri Pelleg's opinion on this
Send it to Uri @QY
My guess is he would 4bet too, he made an excellent video about why cold callers make us want to squeeze more linear: ruclips.net/video/m8B6ecZM7uI/видео.html
I don't think the thread discussed (in detail) the differing opinions on how btn fish proceeds vs the 4b preflop HU & vs MP call. MP's range vs 4b preflop too. Does he actually jam JJ pure, how does he proceed w/ AQo vs a 4b as inordinate amounts of UTGs 4b EV w/ AQo come from this FE and also facing less jams.
All these factors preflop then need to be weighted against the differing scenarios postflop (mainly playing HU vs a loose fishes cc 3b range)
For these reasons I heavily prefer 4b as I think it over performs vs MP reg and ofc we can assume (from BTN cc data) that it's a value 4b and as pointed out here doesn't lose EV vs MP underfold.
For sure, it’s a really complicated decision. And you’re definitely right that what MP does with JJ is a major factor as well - jam all the time and it really hurts the EV of 4betting.
@@PokerGiraffe it was definitely a cool discussion and really highlights how convoluted it can get trying to traverse the gametree ESPECIALLY when you throw recreationals into the mix!
Why is rake never mentioned in the conversation? Surely it must have a big impact on the final decisions when EVs are super close between each. I would auto fold this vs a std fish for example in high rake 50-200nl GG pool.
True, definitely makes us more inclined to 4bet
should i sim this thing with simple preflop? give me btns coldcall range and i go for it.
Sure, you can use any of the ones in the video
It’s a fold the fish can still have big hand pre too. And you’re out of position. 4b or calling is simply bad
Great to have you back. Nice video.
Y reupload?
yeah, he confused the jayser nickname on stars
You may be OOP but you have the best relative position to MP who's the last aggressor.. 4betting this trash kind of feels like setting you up for complications against a bad player who might still have AK or a monster, or even a hand that plays well with MP probably blocking some of your hits when he folds.. I see a good opportunity to just play it weak and take a flop given the nice pot odds.
Lol, why is OBORRA easter egg?
Who cares about GTO when a fish is involved ?
There’s an optimal strategy that exists against the way fish play and that is also a GTO strategy, just not an equilibrium strategy where both players are playing optimally.
True GTO = finding games full of whales!
If we could lock all the fish strategy (in every nodes) then we would play a subgame of poker with other regs, and there would be a GTO for this subgame.
Your only like 55% fav in any session vs a fish. This response is how people lose money at poker t assuming they are huge fav vs a fish
That’s not whales it’s group of players acting as whales to team vs your account
4bet jam or 4b which size？
It’s a little too deep to jam, but I think a big 4bet would work well
Love your vids!
sry dude, im just 1min 30 in, dont care if ur good at coding a solver, million reasons why 4b is godawful donkey fishplay with AQo here, lol
in real time, ull be oop, with 2 ppl, u dont know the ranges of, u look at solver, and the solve knows all the combos, in real time, ull be OOP with a hand that plays pretty shit oop, vs 2 ppl, who have position on you, and ur way more blind, than when u give a solver 2 ranges to give you output from
@@ImDrizzt really can't tell what you're trying to say. 4betting defines their ranges more and often makes it so you're not playing multiway. "u dont know the ranges" ok great, are we putting 72o in there? or are we making some reasonable assumptions?