The TRUTH About ALL-IN-EV | Does YELLOW LINE MATTER?
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- Опубликовано: 14 апр 2024
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📜 Video Description 📜
High Stakes Alex has had a rough start to his poker year in terms of All-In-EV running $45,000 below expectation. The good news is that Alex is making a brand new series for Carrot Corner called Aggress to Impress and to celebrate we have him on the channel to review some recent hands where he took aggressive lines. Was the aggression well placed or should he have been more reserved in some of these spots? 
Игры
3bet button, cbet flop, auto muck turn is my new favourite line
this guy is very smart, articulate, and fun to listen to, not to mention the hands he brings are absolute magic. This is someone I'd pay to get coaching from 100%, no offense to other coaches in your network but this guy is my favourite.
The best part is that high stakes players often end up taking the exact same lines as micro donkeys but with completely different reasoning and understanding AQ vs 77 looks like 2 aggro donkeys at NL5
fr 🤣
Maybe one of these days I'll bring some non-punts for a pete video... also I can't believe I missed this at 17:22 but I can have AKo with the K of hearts! massively vindicates my play :)
Hi Alex,
is 20% a fair estimate of the effect of the yellow line? I always had the feel its kind of a ~ pointless line because in order to estimate the luck of a situation you kind of need to know the whoooole picture and it is massive with way too many factors at play. I.e sure you run your AA into KK and loose which is fairly unlucky but you got into this extremely lucky spot in the first place or you hit your set ott 3bp go AI and opp calls w overpair and hits 2 outter - youd be a hero in the ev line claiming you were unlucky but in reality its you who got massively lucky into an equally massively unlucky spot. The deeper you go into the branches of the tree the less all in ev matters is what I am thinking and 20% seems too high?
@@zlatomirzlatev7079 From the data I've seen, yellow line winrates have a standard deviation of 80BB/100, which is 20% less than the standard deviation of 6max cash greenlines. That's all I can say -- it's going to be hard to intuit from experience how much "seems" like a lot. 20% seems about right to me, fwiw.
thanks!
That Jonathan Little tweet 😂
I love these vids of you talking with Alex, great content
Which Jonathan Little tweet?
Love the content with you and Alex. Great work guys...Keep it up!
nice content , i like it , i learnd from it. keep working!!
Great video fun conversation.
“Nutting” followed by the 0.5 second theme tune was 10/10 lol
Does villain bet turn AKcc? AQss? does he build some checks - on the royal hand
What about Galfond bucks, totally missing!
What is our EV vs villains range? Not their actual hand
The extra variance in ZOOM games - mostly what seat you get on the table vs what opponent - is very underestimated aswell tbh. I have had sessions with only the top 5 regs in my blinds every time. Then the next session there is only weaker plays in my blinds etc.
that is unfathomably unlikely to matter. for example, if the pool has 10% fish and you play 1000 hands in btn-LJ, there is a 0.0000179% chance that you will have 860 hands where there are no fish in sb or bb, as opposed to the 810/1000 you would get on average if 10% of players are fish.
@@BarvGwydh I think he is being hyperbolic, as well as the fact that the fish being in the blinds doesn't mean he played any bigger pots against them.
@@BenDover-je6uw maybe, but the statement "The extra variance in ZOOM games - mostly what seat you get on the table vs what opponent - is very underestimated aswell tbh" is not true, there is practically 0 variance from this
@@BarvGwydh I would say yes and no.
If you were playing reg tables and had nits acting after you, you would see a higher bb/100 from CO than you would against a normal opponent ( I think).
Basically you would have more 2 BTN orbits than normal.
the nits being in the blinds means you get more steals through, so I imagine you would have slightly lower variance than normal but higher losses in pots played against the nits due to their range being so strong when they played
That is my theory of that situation and has not been tested in any way.
@@BenDover-je6uw yeah if anything there's some positional variance in reg tables but none in zoom games, so the OP is just very false. but even at reg tables it's not much of a consideration. maybe some people who try hard to get the best bumhunting seat will be at an advantage in the long run but that's not really variance, if everyone wants the seat just as much it will even out.
Hmmm i havent cheched how solvers minimum defend on that flop on that j54 rainbow,but I m nowhere near covinced that aqo is mandatory defend there ,if you think the range interaction ,and given how high would villain barrel here it looks minus ev to defend vs 60% pot bet just to realise.As played imo on turn it looks way more of a call than the flop one
brilliant video thanks a lot lads
LOVE - you and Alex doing battle
You can reduce the variance of the difference between AllinEV and EV by always running it twice, ratholing, and cashing out. However don't use the cashout feature if the site charges a rake to do so.
Not a fan of the TT hand, we probably wins ~25% of the time when we check, so villain has to fold at a very high frequency (~60%) of the time to have bluffing better than checking
I on the other hand like shoving . We might get folds from str8 from some players and JJ maybe QQ if he even get there with it and AA. We happen to run into nuts this time .Happens but ur opponent going to remember your bluff and pay you off way more likely in the future lighter than normal .
Bringing back the Deuces Cracked format is a great idea indeed
I play tourney only. This year over 21000 hands my All-in EV is 6bb/100. My actual BB/100 is 0.5. Total winnings to date $11.96. But hey, I'm not complaining...
Almost 12$..! You'll get there !!
The yellow and green lines should always converge over the long run, right? Unless it’s actually true that “OnLinE pOkeR iS RigGed!”, in which case you could prove it by showing a statistically-significant sample in which the green and yellow lines diverge more than should be allowed by normal variance, right?
This is proof online is rigged yet everyone just ignores it. Ive never seen a graph where someone is ABOVE EV. Strange isnt it?
Having a yellow line 32 BI above the green one after 220k hands, I can relate a lot....
When will be Yolan ?
Solver bluffs AQ at a high frequency on last hand, but OOP never folds a better hand (calls all pairs including A5s, 67s), I wonder why it bluffs as it's never getting a hand that beats it to fold.
Without even seeing the hand then it either is the bottom of your range and/or it blocks their value or bluff catching range.
@Alex :D oh my lord, Qh at that river, Tens in position and they check :D :D , oh sh*t, really, what would you do with 89s of hearts, its same right ? JAM and PRAY :D
Really good shit boys
Running this far below all-in EV could be due to card sharing collusion. Or at least exacerbated by it. Two partners one has QQ and one folded an ace now he knows QQ is stronger and going to run above all-in EV then when his partner doesn't fold an ace.
Where is the red line?
If you are below all-in EV, your have to consider the possibility that your opponents might be cheating by sharing hole cards. But it could also just be luck.
Are the paid courses available with subscription
sadly no
All in adjusted good for higher stackes, doesnt work in micros....all in adjust doesnt work in multi way pots, it acts as if the money went in on the river
How much will the subscription cost per month?
50 pounds, I think.
not sure how much that is in dollars or kilograms.
That Jonathan Little tweet has to be a one day delayed April Fools joke . . . right?
What tweet?
Funny how online ur never ABOVE EV but its always BELOW EV. 🤔
that JL tweet must have been some late aprils fool joke
probably will never complain about losing again. GG
i hit a royal flush in a live 1/2 game and got paid 500$ lol
I though cash game had less swings and variance. Seems like variance is extremely high both in cash and mtts. Guess better off playing mtts then, at least they are fun and exiting?
Entirely depends on the cash game. Online Zoom, especially at higher stakes, is brutal in terms of variance as it's infested with tough regs. Non-zoom is usually easier but you have to table select to play with recs. Live cash is a cake-walk compared to anything online, the downside being how boring it is and how fewer hands you get to play. Online makes up for some of its variance in the sheer volume you're able to put in. MTTs are going to be higher variance for the same stakes/levels.
MTTs are the higher variance route
U can not gettop 3 in 1k tournaments or even more in extreme cases with big fields soooo..... pick smart
Alex thinks he was exploiting in both the TT and AQ hand and doesn’t have the self awareness to see he was the one being (counter) exploited. No one calls 77 unless they know you’re overbluffing and no one traps the royal flush there unless they know you will turn too much into bluffs
This guy is closer to a 25nl reg than a real HS reg - he simply has the softest pool, please stop calling him high stakes alex
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N U T T I N G
wtf is this title, YELLOW LINE IS THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS i can immediately say that
Good one
All in All-in-EV is a dumb stat, as in it is extremely biased -- as its just 'one' component in variance as Alex said. Except that you're cherry picking it. What if you had AA vs KK 10x more than you should of, but won only 60% of those 80/20's?
Well on one hand you could say you were very 'unlucky' to have lost 40% of the time when you had AA vs KK, but on the other hand you literally coolered your opponents 10x as much by even getting into this situation that often was super 'lucky', but your all in 'EV' would have you say 'woe is me'.
Anomalies like this can be near impossible to filter for, as this kind of luck will be mixed in throughout every hand you play and not be as simple as filtering on one hand.
@@frederikbach8179 except the number of hands to converge is greater than a billion hands. So it won't converge for anyone and if you think so you honestly don't know what you're talking about
@@frederikbach8179 the fact you're asking this question tells me you've failed to comprehend what I wrote.
You're essentially arguing semantics now, which is missing the entire point.
I don't care to discuss multiplication when you're stuck at addition.
There's no way Little was suggesting to fold to a check. Stop bullying the man.
Hi Pete, do you have a discord? thanks