The balance shifting also works on the strategic/ operational level as well. You can see Russians shifting pressure from Chasiv Yar to New York/ Toretsk, to Pokrovsk to Selidove to Kurakhove to Vuhlerar sector. When encountering too much resistance in one place they shift resources somewhere else. In fact the current offensive from Hyrnik Kurakhove sector to Bogoyavlenka shows a high level coordination. I’d be interested to see the analysis of that once that operation matures.
The Ukrainian high command refuse to send reinforcement in Tavria and Khurakove direction due to the also critical situation happening in Pokrovsk, they fear a Russian assault to the strategical city. Khurakove and Vuhledar are set to die when Kursk offensive started, as it draws the much needed reserves from all other direction hence the massive breakthrough happening in Selidove, Vuhledar and Terni atm where Ukraine brigades fall one by one. As for the 3 day breakout it was a disaster, minimal numbers of Ukrainian left the city as the Russian pummel the evacuation points 24/7 with artilleries, FABs, and even TOS flamethrower rockets. Meanwhile Russian actually receive minimal casualties at that time since they don't even move at all, it was just the drones flying over Vuhledar to call the shots, the elements of the 5th guard and 36MRB just sitting quietly at the flank while artillery work on Ukrainian position. I think around Vinik dismissal we started to hear news about massive amount of soldiers from the 72nd surrendering inside the city. As for the outside element of the 72nd, the Ukrainian command simply can't relief them due to the shortage of recruitable manpower and men at the frontline
It's also Napoleon concept of dynamic pressure , which any general or judoka worth anything understand press where the opponent can be put off balance , then follow immediately by exerting pressure on the opening created it's less about one hit as a succession of linked moves creating a destructive dynamism
Contrary to your opening statement, Russia seems to be increasingly more capable and efficient in carrying out operations at a level above the battalion.
Exactly correct. I think it is a shame because there is some good info here but unforuntately many of these analysis channels fall to the same old talking points far too often.
The author is obviously very knowledgeable and experienced and his content deserves praise, however we are all slaves to our personal bias and he is no exception.
Thanks for providing an analysis of how the Russian military actually conducts attacks. It's very interesting. We've entered a new phase of warfare that reminds me of the later parts of WWI. Instead of trying for huge, sweeping attacks offensives are made up of smaller attacks with very clearly defined, local objectives. It's more of a crawling offensive rather than some mad dash.
Great knowledge and insights. Although the Russians displayed tactical stupidity early on, they are learning and in some cases show flashes of brilliance. Ukraine is now the side that is making serious mistakes at both the tactical and strategic level on the steppes, similar to the last army that did so. Maybe it's something in the water.
Back when the 2022 war started I assumed the russians would be working on their "deep battle" georgii isserson model, but they proved to have insufficient coordination above the battalion level to attempt such a thing. I am still wondering if thier use of battalion tactical groups, what with div and brig level assets pushed down to battalions, is a result or cause of their chronic leadership dysfunction and atrophy. In any case, as the war dragged on and ISR via drones and other things became ubiquitous, and better integrated with artillery and other support, even accumulating a company to stage an attack became extraordinarily risky, forcing attacks to be meat-wave trickles. The trend of large attacks this past year I believe was partly a result of Ukrainian artillery and ISR starvation, and increasing pressure for the russians to be in as best a position as possible before the US election and other potential countdowns. One practice they have retained at an operational level as you point out here, is the use rolling successive concentrated attacks across different points of the front, instead of such simultaneously. This is a core aspect of isserson's deep battle and was common practice during wwii even when the soviets were not yet capable of exploiting their successes. Good video, hope to hear more from you, subbed.
The reason for BTGs was that during peacetime the manpower of the Russian army was drastically reduced while still having a large proportion of artillery and heavy weapons. As such, BTGs made sense with smaller amount of infantry relying on a disproportionately large amount of firepower. However now that the manpower has been significantly increased, the Russians have switched to larger units.
@@communist754 I'm not talking about meatwaves as they are popularly conceived and misunderstood, Im talking about the actual ones in which squads were force-fed across no-mans-land to deal with obstacles and dig positions, forcing the ukrainians to respond and expose themselves to russian supporting assets.
@@gbabayan Yes, while they do have an advantage in providing an exceptional amount of firepower organically, they also have disadvantages in having enormous and complicated logistical footprints for their manpower, and it is clearly evident the problems that occurred with russian logistics in 2022. If they really wanted to save money in peacetime I feel like shoving div assets to batts, instead of just practicing some type of cooperation with attached units that can be tasked from higher levels is kinda silly. In any case, I am not questioning why they switched too and then from BTGs even if I think they were not a great idea even for russia's problems. I haven't seen any significant evidence either way, but I speculate that on top of the normal level of corruption and dysfunction, the BTG structure may have contributed to some insulatory practices among their officers, in which feeling that they had everything they needed organically, they would be less likely to cooperate with other units to their own detriment.
@stug41 isn't that the default modus operandi of both sides? I think meat wave is an egregious misnomer, because instead of a massive manpower concentration and WWI-style infantry wave attacks implied in the name you have individual groups of up to ten people dispersed as thinly as possible and relying on speed and maneuverability rather than mass and momentum. If anything, that's the polar opposite of human wave - it's a human trickle.
Great video, I whish though that you would highlight the things you are talking about so that it would be easier to find the place, unit or direction u are talking about. TY. Hope to see more of your videos
Very well done and educational video. I have been looking for technical commentary like this. Hope to see more, and that you are able to cut through all the noice of propagandistic and shallow commentary. You were recommended on my feed, so seems the algorithm found you. Hope it spread the word. I will recommend to friends as well and post in appropriate forums
One of the best videos I have seen on the SMO. The battle level analysis is much superior to anything else out there. Please release more videos on the other battles such as Popasna, Artemivsk, Avdiivka, Mariupol & the 2023 ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
Interesting points from a new content creator. Good start, however maintaining a strict neutrality and constantly stating the actual facts devoid of propaganda is absolutely essential. Statements like 'Russian agreesion' is factual; however claiming it as 'unprovoked' is nonsensical propaganda...
@@joyholtzhausen8976 but he is right. Aggression being unprovoked is very arguable. Just because you are willing to handwave away opposing reasoning doesn't make it dissappear. Fairytale logic of demonizing ones enemies rarely leads to objective facts.
No lol it wasn’t provoked. It all started when Vladimir Putin lost his puppet president in Ukraine by a coup that was carried out by the Ukrainian people who wanted to divert from Russian culture and values. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the only way to control the ex Soviet republics were by placing puppets, go look at Chechnya, back in 1994 they tried their best to fight for their independence but now they’ve been turned into Russian dogs. Do you think Ukraine wants to end up like them? The Russian government and Vladmir Putin are liars, they lied about Russian troops in Crimea, they lied about Russian troops in Donbass. Wake up dude, I once used to believe their b.s propaganda songs
I see the same old stereotypes about Russian "centralized command" that come to us from the Germans who lost WW2 to them and the alleged superiority of the NATO/Western command structure (how do such military "professionals" keep losing to peasant farmers acting as irregular fighters?) continue to dominate Western military discourse. Claims about "an entire battalion" lost in a few days fighting are undoubtedly based on Ukrainian sources that have been shown to be false over and over. And unless Mark has access directly to highly classified information, or is serving in the HQ of either belligerent, he DOES NOT know the exact size (company, platoon, battalion, whatever) of force involved in a particular attack in a particular sector of a front that spans over 1,000 kilometers a few months ago. He seem to just be swallowing whatever narrative the Ukrainians are giving without any reference to Russian accounts. That he would make such precise assertions based on open sources reveals that he thinks the rest of us are pretty gullible. Riddle me this, if Ukrainians receive 5-6 times as many bodies of dead soldiers when exchanges (the numbers are public, you can look them up) are being made by the two sides, are more Russians really being killed??? Of course the massive advantage Russia has in firepower, including in areas that Ukraine cannot match (air power, helicopter gunships) would lead to disproportionate Ukrainian casualties even when they can defend, as in this case.
@@gostan2718 The video is far from garbage. What makes you think that the Kursk offensive was nothing more than an attempt to prevent a complete Russian breakthrough in the Vuhledar or the Pokrovsk direction by redirecting the Russian reserves? Hence the North Koreans arriving in the Kursk area?
bruh fr, they thought that russia will divert their troops into kursk, but what they did instead is just double the troops and stream rolled trough multiple fortress city
@@seanl7856 there is no evidence of North Koreans military formations in Kursk, all we have is South Korean intel spokesperson say so (i.e. source-washed CIA narrative), and some satellite images of a site not in Kursk
I belive it is important to note that russian units are one or two scale higher than their Ukr. counterparts on the frontline. Companies against regiments Battallions against brigades
This is normal, though. US doctrine also prefers the attacking unit to be at least one echelon larger than the defenders, and conversely that an attack can be held by a defending unit one echelon lower with adequate support. The problem for the Ukrainians is the lack of reserves (in the form of uncommitted units behind the frontline) to mount counterattacks.
The Russians are using 3 armies in one coordinated attack north of Ugledar and south and north of Kurahovo AS WE SPEAK. They used 4 brigades in the capture of Avdeevka. There were NO meat waves at Bakhmut
The problem with 99% of Western commentators is that they misunderstand Russian geopolitical aspirations, which are deliberately distorted by Western propaganda. For this reason, they do not understand Russian strategy. This leads to their misconception about the operational level of war, and as a result, they slip out statements like "Russia is incapable of ..." Russians do not consider the Ukrainians a separate nation, but were ready to accept how things turned out in 1991. Since it turned out that this is impossible, then Ukraine will have to be reintegrated into Russia by force. Even if this does not happen as a result of this war, there is no other way for Russia. At the same time, the threat of war with NATO is also not going away, and the Russians must be ready to repel direct NATO intervention in the war. Hence, Russia's goal: to destroy as many Ukrainian troops as possible, losing as few of its own as possible. Time is playing in Russia's favor, as morale and support for Ukraine is falling. This is the reason why Russia does not conduct large operations. Operations can quickly defeat the enemy and win the war. But firstly, the losses will be great. And secondly, what next? The Russians will have to make peace. Send the prisoners of war home, return the territories except for Crimea + 4 regions. And... NATO will start preparing the scraps of Ukraine for a new war? Therefore, for Russia there are two options for ending this war: NATO admits that it backs off or the Ukrainian state and army are wiped out, with the maximum possible preservation of the population
I don't think Ukraine will be integrated into Russia per se, it will likely function like Belarus 2.0. and maybe in another decade will join the Russian-Belarus allied state. The problem with Ukraine is the amount of money, effort and time it would take to not even rebuild destruction caused by war, but to get the economy running. In that case, any remaining ultra nationalists will be a very big nuisance if not hindrance, but they're also the first ones to die in the war. More importantly having experienced the west given "young democracy" of Zelensky's regime, even more anti-russian ukrainians would probably admit Russia isn't that bad after all. As long as SMO get properly finished that is, otherwise its revanchism, radicalism and another war in 5-10 years.
The People disliking the videe are those who don't like truth and want to be feed with lies, thanks for your analysis mate. Russia is learning and is becoming one of the most capable military out there with modern warfare experience
˝Russians didn´t launch Meat Wave Assault SINCE the Battle of Bakhmut...˝ , ok , thanks buddy, ALL I needed to know so I don´t waste my time watching a 40 min video. BTW, I am still waiting to see a SINGLE video of ˝FAMOUS˝ Russian mean wave assault in this war. Must be that they are forced to do this cuz they run our of shovels. And I am curious to find out YOUR definition of ˝meat wave assault˝. Just kidding, I am good. Sayonara!
@@MarkTakacs-u1w i think i heard that prisoner units were used as recon troopers / canon fodder to discover enemy positions in artyovmosk and were interpreted as "meat wave assaults.
So to conclude, based on your high level estimation - what is the strength ratio at the beginning and what is the casualty ratio at the end of the battle?
Good question. Accordin to my rough estimates, the combined force ration was 7:1 to the Russians at the beginning of the battle (early Aug). Regarding casualties I have zero information. If I must give a rough estimate, I woudl say that the Ukrainians lost altogether one brigade worth of human losses while the Russians one and a half. But his is just a rough estimate.
@ thank you for your response... seeing as this opportunity to talk to an unbiased professional is preciously rare, i would ask one more question: Do you believe it true that there is nothing stopping Russians advancing to the Dneper once they break through these strongholds in southern Donbass? I keep hearing that they are only accelerating, but there's propaganda from both sides... Greetings from Qatar!
@@VersusAllOdds The fortifications get less and less as Russia pushes west. The battles in the Donbas area for the last 2 and a half years where essentially battling through the main fortified lines which are extensive and these were built up over a period of 8+ years.
@@VersusAllOdds There is the Ukrainian army, and fortifications are not very difficult to build if you actually want to. Strategic-level Breakthroughs are probably not possible unless one side completely collapses, but this is not likely to happen soon.
@ i also think so... i think the hype of "if Russians break through this line it's over" is mostly a myth. It's a grinding, attrition warfare at it's worst.
It would be interesting to see what would happen to that side of the internet when things went bad to Ukraine. They like to boast about how the entire NATO industrial might is going to outmatch Russia because it only had Soviet stocks which were depleting. But they didn't realise that Russia also had allies. Currently, Ukraine is dealing with Iranian drones, North Korean artillery shells, and Chinese technology. Worse still, unlike the European countries which could send most of its equipment to Ukraine, the main NATO power, the US couldn't afford to send too much equipment to Ukraine since it still had China to contend with on Asia. The situation became potentially unfavourable in the next year when you considered that perhaps Russia's stockpiles are depleting because they are forming new Brigades which needed equipment. With how many European nations had depleted their own stocks, I suppose that the situation could only get worse for Ukraine from this point.
NATO countries have free media which hold government failures and leaders to account! Russia has ONLY state controlled media, which simply parrots Kremlins narratives!
Good beginig and poor ending. Could be a good tactical/educational video but nevertheless everything went down to "russian propoganda" and "unprovoked agression". Still, it is not a bad analyze and quite interesting lecture. Would like to see sometheing like this in the future
Sir I have maybe stupid question but I would be happy if you answer me - why was Vuhledar so important town for Russians to capture it, while at the same time was EXTREMELY small in area? That town was maybe home to more than 10K people, but area of that town is very small. But it was not at all easy to capture it for the Russians. That thing is not logical to me. Keep up good work, I like your style of videos.
Wide open fields of fire out front and anything that can be seen can be killed. The Russians had to work their way around the flanks. That took a looooong time.
There are actually a lot of reasons. First as the main one is Ugledar is a goddamn pain in the ass. It's a town on the slightly higher bank of the river than has high rise building, is surrounded by wide open fields and was heavily fortified since 2014 I believe. It's a very strong fortified position. The second reason follows from the first one - it's location. It wedges right between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. It's troublesome, because the town could serve as a spring board for Ukrainian offensive operations to cut southern supply lines. There's also a little discussed fact that I believe 10 or 15 km south-east of it there's an important railway that can't be used, because thanks to Ugledar it's squarely within range of ukrainian artillery. This two things are the reasons why until recently that railroad was blocked by a giant 10 km long armoured train and another section south of it was constructed. Now it can be used properly and greatly ease logistics in Novorossia. And the third reason that we're seeing right now - it allowed to move south of Kurahovo Inbetween ukrainian lines and exploit the fact that they were meant to stop attacks from the south, not from the east. Generally land size and population talk are all for propaganda. What's really important are strategic points. Ugledar was one such point.
In terms of stance, far better that ukrianian soy boy "war archive" who uses the word "HOWEVER" unnecessarily and excessively to understate the russian progresss and exagerrate the battered ukrainian army. He narrates like he is about to cry even after so much of bias. P.S you can use animation to make ur videos more interesting. The Map you have discussed is a Defence academy map hard for ordinary people to grab. So...
I think its hard to attack more than battalion cause its easy to be discovered. Its hard to concentrate big ammount of units. Russians are struggle with all satelites of NATO,and intelligence of NATO. Maybe they use brigade or division in attack but on all wide of front. Then this division divide on brigade,than on battalion than on company and im the end na small units ... In the end on 4 soldiers squads.
Okay so explain to me why it took 4 months for the Ukrainian army to capture Robotyne? Or does “meat wave assaults” only apply to Russians whenever they go on the offensive? You need to understand that this is a brutal full scale attritional warfare, the losses will always be high for both sides.
How so that the 55th Artillery Brigade wasn't able to suppress enemy advances? If they didn't have enough shells, why? What about the artillery elements of other brigades? Also, since when they have lack of drones? I thought on that part of front Ukrainians had multiple drone units operating day/night.
Well, perhaps it had something to do with the fact that the brigade defending Vuhledar, and possibly also the nearby ones, had a terrible battle attrition. They had been stationed there for 2 years, and considering that Vuhledar is a strategic place which had been under major assault a few times, those artillery units must've suffered losses too. Perhaps it was no coincidence that the attack took place after the Kursk offensive. The Russian must've known about the Ukraine's reserve situation, which made them confident that Ukraine wouldn't have the ability to deploy another force in time. But for Drones, I think no one knew what happened. But the flank assaults were carried by soldiers riding motorcycles which would be an easy target for drones. The fact that there were minimum amount of drones harassing them perhaps suggest either those units suffered shortages or attrition, or there was a heavy Russian jamming activities.
Russians were moving in this sector for over a year the assault started even before avdiivka fell , the surprise Russian breakthrough near pokrovsk made the high command to shift all resources in that area as they Russians can't be allowed to reach pokrovsk as it is the backbone of defense in Donbass , many brigades which were supposed to fight in the area weren't manned in favour of brigades fighting near pokrovsk thus culminating the defence of southern donbass . Even now Ukrainian highcommand is try to relieve pokrovsk with counter attacks while Khurakove the epicenter of defence in southern sector is being flanked .
@@tedarcher9120 u can't confirm losses by photo, especially when some clowns count multiple times one tank from different angles like oryx or whatever it is and estimate losses from their imagination while the whole crew just left the tank before it was completely destroyed.
let me guess, they drone the shit out of what they want to attack for two weeks, then they shell defensive hard points for a couple more days and 2 hours before the attack they start a massive artillery barrage while they outflank the city from two sides while another assault group moves into the center? they have been doing this shit since Bakhmut
The balance shifting also works on the strategic/ operational level as well. You can see Russians shifting pressure from Chasiv Yar to New York/ Toretsk, to Pokrovsk to Selidove to Kurakhove to Vuhlerar sector. When encountering too much resistance in one place they shift resources somewhere else.
In fact the current offensive from Hyrnik Kurakhove sector to Bogoyavlenka shows a high level coordination. I’d be interested to see the analysis of that once that operation matures.
Indeed, this is a widely used method of the Russians. That's why the Ukrainians should have been better prepared to counter it.
Ones in a while youtube algorithm throws something that is not a clickbate, but a gem. You got a follow and hope to see more. :)
The tactics Russia uses is called "Snails offensive", developed in 1942 by General Raus.
Sir, your content is superior, when compared to many other ex-military tubers. This God’s work, keep it coming. Wishing all the best from Estonia.
The Ukrainian high command refuse to send reinforcement in Tavria and Khurakove direction due to the also critical situation happening in Pokrovsk, they fear a Russian assault to the strategical city. Khurakove and Vuhledar are set to die when Kursk offensive started, as it draws the much needed reserves from all other direction hence the massive breakthrough happening in Selidove, Vuhledar and Terni atm where Ukraine brigades fall one by one.
As for the 3 day breakout it was a disaster, minimal numbers of Ukrainian left the city as the Russian pummel the evacuation points 24/7 with artilleries, FABs, and even TOS flamethrower rockets. Meanwhile Russian actually receive minimal casualties at that time since they don't even move at all, it was just the drones flying over Vuhledar to call the shots, the elements of the 5th guard and 36MRB just sitting quietly at the flank while artillery work on Ukrainian position. I think around Vinik dismissal we started to hear news about massive amount of soldiers from the 72nd surrendering inside the city. As for the outside element of the 72nd, the Ukrainian command simply can't relief them due to the shortage of recruitable manpower and men at the frontline
🤫🤫🤫
It's also Napoleon concept of dynamic pressure , which any general or judoka worth anything understand
press where the opponent can be put off balance , then follow immediately by exerting pressure on the opening created
it's less about one hit as a succession of linked moves creating a destructive dynamism
Contrary to your opening statement, Russia seems to be increasingly more capable and efficient in carrying out operations at a level above the battalion.
Exactly correct. I think it is a shame because there is some good info here but unforuntately many of these analysis channels fall to the same old talking points far too often.
The author is obviously very knowledgeable and experienced and his content deserves praise, however we are all slaves to our personal bias and he is no exception.
Ι don't know the guy, first time I land on his channel by chance.
Indeed, see the next video ;) However single operations were carried out with units not greatere than a battalion. At least in this actual battle.
@@MarkTakacs-u1wIt's because most brigades only use one battalion at a time
Very informative, never seen anyone go in-depth
Thanks for providing an analysis of how the Russian military actually conducts attacks. It's very interesting. We've entered a new phase of warfare that reminds me of the later parts of WWI. Instead of trying for huge, sweeping attacks offensives are made up of smaller attacks with very clearly defined, local objectives. It's more of a crawling offensive rather than some mad dash.
Хотел бы я поставить лайк, но в глаз попало предвзятое отношение автора
Great knowledge and insights. Although the Russians displayed tactical stupidity early on, they are learning and in some cases show flashes of brilliance. Ukraine is now the side that is making serious mistakes at both the tactical and strategic level on the steppes, similar to the last army that did so. Maybe it's something in the water.
Back when the 2022 war started I assumed the russians would be working on their "deep battle" georgii isserson model, but they proved to have insufficient coordination above the battalion level to attempt such a thing. I am still wondering if thier use of battalion tactical groups, what with div and brig level assets pushed down to battalions, is a result or cause of their chronic leadership dysfunction and atrophy. In any case, as the war dragged on and ISR via drones and other things became ubiquitous, and better integrated with artillery and other support, even accumulating a company to stage an attack became extraordinarily risky, forcing attacks to be meat-wave trickles. The trend of large attacks this past year I believe was partly a result of Ukrainian artillery and ISR starvation, and increasing pressure for the russians to be in as best a position as possible before the US election and other potential countdowns.
One practice they have retained at an operational level as you point out here, is the use rolling successive concentrated attacks across different points of the front, instead of such simultaneously. This is a core aspect of isserson's deep battle and was common practice during wwii even when the soviets were not yet capable of exploiting their successes.
Good video, hope to hear more from you, subbed.
The reason for BTGs was that during peacetime the manpower of the Russian army was drastically reduced while still having a large proportion of artillery and heavy weapons. As such, BTGs made sense with smaller amount of infantry relying on a disproportionately large amount of firepower.
However now that the manpower has been significantly increased, the Russians have switched to larger units.
Meat wave attacks were never a thing, it’s a propaganda trope. It was either small infantry squads supported by arty, or armored columns.
@@communist754 I'm not talking about meatwaves as they are popularly conceived and misunderstood, Im talking about the actual ones in which squads were force-fed across no-mans-land to deal with obstacles and dig positions, forcing the ukrainians to respond and expose themselves to russian supporting assets.
@@gbabayan Yes, while they do have an advantage in providing an exceptional amount of firepower organically, they also have disadvantages in having enormous and complicated logistical footprints for their manpower, and it is clearly evident the problems that occurred with russian logistics in 2022. If they really wanted to save money in peacetime I feel like shoving div assets to batts, instead of just practicing some type of cooperation with attached units that can be tasked from higher levels is kinda silly. In any case, I am not questioning why they switched too and then from BTGs even if I think they were not a great idea even for russia's problems.
I haven't seen any significant evidence either way, but I speculate that on top of the normal level of corruption and dysfunction, the BTG structure may have contributed to some insulatory practices among their officers, in which feeling that they had everything they needed organically, they would be less likely to cooperate with other units to their own detriment.
@stug41 isn't that the default modus operandi of both sides? I think meat wave is an egregious misnomer, because instead of a massive manpower concentration and WWI-style infantry wave attacks implied in the name you have individual groups of up to ten people dispersed as thinly as possible and relying on speed and maneuverability rather than mass and momentum. If anything, that's the polar opposite of human wave - it's a human trickle.
Great video, I whish though that you would highlight the things you are talking about so that it would be easier to find the place, unit or direction u are talking about. TY. Hope to see more of your videos
Noted!
Very well done and educational video. I have been looking for technical commentary like this. Hope to see more, and that you are able to cut through all the noice of propagandistic and shallow commentary. You were recommended on my feed, so seems the algorithm found you. Hope it spread the word. I will recommend to friends as well and post in appropriate forums
Much appreciated! I'll try to meet with the expectations of the professional audience.
One of the best videos I have seen on the SMO. The battle level analysis is much superior to anything else out there. Please release more videos on the other battles such as Popasna, Artemivsk, Avdiivka, Mariupol & the 2023 ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
Interesting observations and a testable hypothesis. Thank you for your contribution.
Interesting points from a new content creator. Good start, however maintaining a strict neutrality and constantly stating the actual facts devoid of propaganda is absolutely essential. Statements like 'Russian agreesion' is factual; however claiming it as 'unprovoked' is nonsensical propaganda...
A lie repeated enough times...
Welcome to your own opinion
@@joyholtzhausen8976 but he is right. Aggression being unprovoked is very arguable. Just because you are willing to handwave away opposing reasoning doesn't make it dissappear.
Fairytale logic of demonizing ones enemies rarely leads to objective facts.
No lol it wasn’t provoked. It all started when Vladimir Putin lost his puppet president in Ukraine by a coup that was carried out by the Ukrainian people who wanted to divert from Russian culture and values. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the only way to control the ex Soviet republics were by placing puppets, go look at Chechnya, back in 1994 they tried their best to fight for their independence but now they’ve been turned into Russian dogs. Do you think Ukraine wants to end up like them?
The Russian government and Vladmir Putin are liars, they lied about Russian troops in Crimea, they lied about Russian troops in Donbass. Wake up dude, I once used to believe their b.s propaganda songs
@@arsic094Стоит ли напоминать на чьи деньги организовывался майдан и как Нуланд раздавала печеньки на нем?
I see the same old stereotypes about Russian "centralized command" that come to us from the Germans who lost WW2 to them and the alleged superiority of the NATO/Western command structure (how do such military "professionals" keep losing to peasant farmers acting as irregular fighters?) continue to dominate Western military discourse. Claims about "an entire battalion" lost in a few days fighting are undoubtedly based on Ukrainian sources that have been shown to be false over and over. And unless Mark has access directly to highly classified information, or is serving in the HQ of either belligerent, he DOES NOT know the exact size (company, platoon, battalion, whatever) of force involved in a particular attack in a particular sector of a front that spans over 1,000 kilometers a few months ago. He seem to just be swallowing whatever narrative the Ukrainians are giving without any reference to Russian accounts. That he would make such precise assertions based on open sources reveals that he thinks the rest of us are pretty gullible. Riddle me this, if Ukrainians receive 5-6 times as many bodies of dead soldiers when exchanges (the numbers are public, you can look them up) are being made by the two sides, are more Russians really being killed??? Of course the massive advantage Russia has in firepower, including in areas that Ukraine cannot match (air power, helicopter gunships) would lead to disproportionate Ukrainian casualties even when they can defend, as in this case.
Kursk had a slowing effect on the Donbass? Seriously? It had a disastrous effect and the territorial losses in the Donbass were accelerated
Glad I saw your comment first now I know this video is garbage and I won't waste time watching it
@@gostan2718 The video is far from garbage. What makes you think that the Kursk offensive was nothing more than an attempt to prevent a complete Russian breakthrough in the Vuhledar or the Pokrovsk direction by redirecting the Russian reserves? Hence the North Koreans arriving in the Kursk area?
bruh fr, they thought that russia will divert their troops into kursk, but what they did instead is just double the troops and stream rolled trough multiple fortress city
@@seanl7856 there is no evidence of North Koreans military formations in Kursk, all we have is South Korean intel spokesperson say so (i.e. source-washed CIA narrative), and some satellite images of a site not in Kursk
I think he pretty accurately described what he meant by slowing effect
really well done analysis! looking forward to see more in the future!
Incredible, please continue making such videos
I belive it is important to note that russian units are one or two scale higher than their Ukr. counterparts on the frontline.
Companies against regiments
Battallions against brigades
This is normal, though. US doctrine also prefers the attacking unit to be at least one echelon larger than the defenders, and conversely that an attack can be held by a defending unit one echelon lower with adequate support. The problem for the Ukrainians is the lack of reserves (in the form of uncommitted units behind the frontline) to mount counterattacks.
It would be interesting to see a comparison between this engagement, and the recent engagements in the Sivers'k area.
The Russians are using 3 armies in one coordinated attack north of Ugledar and south and north of Kurahovo AS WE SPEAK. They used 4 brigades in the capture of Avdeevka. There were NO meat waves at Bakhmut
The problem with 99% of Western commentators is that they misunderstand Russian geopolitical aspirations, which are deliberately distorted by Western propaganda. For this reason, they do not understand Russian strategy. This leads to their misconception about the operational level of war, and as a result, they slip out statements like "Russia is incapable of ..."
Russians do not consider the Ukrainians a separate nation, but were ready to accept how things turned out in 1991. Since it turned out that this is impossible, then Ukraine will have to be reintegrated into Russia by force. Even if this does not happen as a result of this war, there is no other way for Russia.
At the same time, the threat of war with NATO is also not going away, and the Russians must be ready to repel direct NATO intervention in the war.
Hence, Russia's goal: to destroy as many Ukrainian troops as possible, losing as few of its own as possible. Time is playing in Russia's favor, as morale and support for Ukraine is falling.
This is the reason why Russia does not conduct large operations. Operations can quickly defeat the enemy and win the war. But firstly, the losses will be great. And secondly, what next? The Russians will have to make peace. Send the prisoners of war home, return the territories except for Crimea + 4 regions. And... NATO will start preparing the scraps of Ukraine for a new war?
Therefore, for Russia there are two options for ending this war: NATO admits that it backs off or the Ukrainian state and army are wiped out, with the maximum possible preservation of the population
I don't think Ukraine will be integrated into Russia per se, it will likely function like Belarus 2.0. and maybe in another decade will join the Russian-Belarus allied state. The problem with Ukraine is the amount of money, effort and time it would take to not even rebuild destruction caused by war, but to get the economy running. In that case, any remaining ultra nationalists will be a very big nuisance if not hindrance, but they're also the first ones to die in the war. More importantly having experienced the west given "young democracy" of Zelensky's regime, even more anti-russian ukrainians would probably admit Russia isn't that bad after all. As long as SMO get properly finished that is, otherwise its revanchism, radicalism and another war in 5-10 years.
Nice video! Hope to see more
Thanks! Will do!
Fantasztikus videó Köszönjük!!!! Fantastic video Thank You!!!
The People disliking the videe are those who don't like truth and want to be feed with lies, thanks for your analysis mate. Russia is learning and is becoming one of the most capable military out there with modern warfare experience
˝Russians didn´t launch Meat Wave Assault SINCE the Battle of Bakhmut...˝ , ok , thanks buddy, ALL I needed to know so I don´t waste my time watching a 40 min video. BTW, I am still waiting to see a SINGLE video of ˝FAMOUS˝ Russian mean wave assault in this war. Must be that they are forced to do this cuz they run our of shovels. And I am curious to find out YOUR definition of ˝meat wave assault˝. Just kidding, I am good. Sayonara!
That is why I said in the video "so-called". Bw You gave me a good idea, to make a debunking video of these infantry assaults.
@@MarkTakacs-u1w i think i heard that prisoner units were used as recon troopers / canon fodder to discover enemy positions in artyovmosk and were interpreted as "meat wave assaults.
So to conclude, based on your high level estimation - what is the strength ratio at the beginning and what is the casualty ratio at the end of the battle?
Good question. Accordin to my rough estimates, the combined force ration was 7:1 to the Russians at the beginning of the battle (early Aug). Regarding casualties I have zero information. If I must give a rough estimate, I woudl say that the Ukrainians lost altogether one brigade worth of human losses while the Russians one and a half. But his is just a rough estimate.
@ thank you for your response... seeing as this opportunity to talk to an unbiased professional is preciously rare, i would ask one more question:
Do you believe it true that there is nothing stopping Russians advancing to the Dneper once they break through these strongholds in southern Donbass? I keep hearing that they are only accelerating, but there's propaganda from both sides... Greetings from Qatar!
@@VersusAllOdds The fortifications get less and less as Russia pushes west. The battles in the Donbas area for the last 2 and a half years where essentially battling through the main fortified lines which are extensive and these were built up over a period of 8+ years.
@@VersusAllOdds There is the Ukrainian army, and fortifications are not very difficult to build if you actually want to. Strategic-level Breakthroughs are probably not possible unless one side completely collapses, but this is not likely to happen soon.
@ i also think so... i think the hype of "if Russians break through this line it's over" is mostly a myth. It's a grinding, attrition warfare at it's worst.
Outstanding analysis.
Subbed, hope you maintain a neutrality here.
Very interesting. Thank you
Very interesting video. Yes, it would be nice to see such analysis of other battlefield events as well. Thanks for your explanation.
Clausewitz mentioned? Subbed. All my homies use war as an extension of political intercourse
Szia! Magyarul vagy magyar felirattal nem lesznek videóid?
Szia! Nem tervezem.
Superb video!!! Subbed. By the way, which army were you an officer in?
He said in the introduction that he was an officer in the Hungarian army.
@pewmandelt5745 damn. Must've missed it.
The Russians has a big advantage in military production, men, equipment quality, moral and overall strategy.
NATO has propaganda.
It would be interesting to see what would happen to that side of the internet when things went bad to Ukraine. They like to boast about how the entire NATO industrial might is going to outmatch Russia because it only had Soviet stocks which were depleting.
But they didn't realise that Russia also had allies. Currently, Ukraine is dealing with Iranian drones, North Korean artillery shells, and Chinese technology. Worse still, unlike the European countries which could send most of its equipment to Ukraine, the main NATO power, the US couldn't afford to send too much equipment to Ukraine since it still had China to contend with on Asia.
The situation became potentially unfavourable in the next year when you considered that perhaps Russia's stockpiles are depleting because they are forming new Brigades which needed equipment. With how many European nations had depleted their own stocks, I suppose that the situation could only get worse for Ukraine from this point.
NATO countries have free media which hold government failures and leaders to account! Russia has ONLY state controlled media, which simply parrots Kremlins narratives!
yeah but how did he make his NO name?
The Russians are the good guys.
And the correct name of the place is Ugledar. The place that "gives coal".
Csak angol nyelven lesznek videok?
For "Schwerpunkt" I prefer the translation "pressure point".
Üdv! Tetszenek az írásai is! :)
The units were forced to hold Vuhledar till Zelensky was in USA presenting his fantasy victory plan.
Waiting for more videos. Russians are on roll.
ok vatnik
@@ffffuchs truth is a dangerous thing is it?
This is sad but truth, ukr military operations almost all about for Zelensky pr
Köszi Márk nagyon jo Video! :)
They can't have an offensive larger than a battalion yet you want to still call it a full-scale invasion? Which one is it bud?
Good beginig and poor ending. Could be a good tactical/educational video but nevertheless everything went down to "russian propoganda" and "unprovoked agression". Still, it is not a bad analyze and quite interesting lecture. Would like to see sometheing like this in the future
reality is hard to swallow for vatniks
Merci à vous!
Üdv! Mint régi blogolvasója kérdezem, csak angolul lesznek videók? Értem, meg minden, de azért magyarul mégiscsak jobb lenne.
A RUclips "Auto Translate" mukodik magyarra is, Settings (Fogaskerek) alatt lehet beallitani...
@@ZsozsoBorkai Ön Takács Márk? És mi köze ennek a kérdésemhez?
Üdv! Köszönöm szépen. Nem lesznek, ez a csatorna angol nyelvű.
@@imresalydr.485 the man tried to assist/help you. Even if its his fault, why so toxic?
Köszönöm válaszát! Rendben! 👍
Sir I have maybe stupid question but I would be happy if you answer me - why was Vuhledar so important town for Russians to capture it, while at the same time was EXTREMELY small in area? That town was maybe home to more than 10K people, but area of that town is very small. But it was not at all easy to capture it for the Russians. That thing is not logical to me. Keep up good work, I like your style of videos.
Wide open fields of fire out front and anything that can be seen can be killed. The Russians had to work their way around the flanks. That took a looooong time.
It was a very well fortified highly defensible position overlooking T0509.
There are actually a lot of reasons.
First as the main one is Ugledar is a goddamn pain in the ass. It's a town on the slightly higher bank of the river than has high rise building, is surrounded by wide open fields and was heavily fortified since 2014 I believe. It's a very strong fortified position.
The second reason follows from the first one - it's location. It wedges right between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. It's troublesome, because the town could serve as a spring board for Ukrainian offensive operations to cut southern supply lines. There's also a little discussed fact that I believe 10 or 15 km south-east of it there's an important railway that can't be used, because thanks to Ugledar it's squarely within range of ukrainian artillery. This two things are the reasons why until recently that railroad was blocked by a giant 10 km long armoured train and another section south of it was constructed. Now it can be used properly and greatly ease logistics in Novorossia.
And the third reason that we're seeing right now - it allowed to move south of Kurahovo Inbetween ukrainian lines and exploit the fact that they were meant to stop attacks from the south, not from the east.
Generally land size and population talk are all for propaganda. What's really important are strategic points. Ugledar was one such point.
In terms of stance, far better that ukrianian soy boy "war archive" who uses the word "HOWEVER" unnecessarily and excessively to understate the russian progresss and exagerrate the battered ukrainian army. He narrates like he is about to cry even after so much of bias.
P.S you can use animation to make ur videos more interesting. The Map you have discussed is a Defence academy map hard for ordinary people to grab. So...
I think its hard to attack more than battalion cause its easy to be discovered. Its hard to concentrate big ammount of units. Russians are struggle with all satelites of NATO,and intelligence of NATO.
Maybe they use brigade or division in attack but on all wide of front. Then this division divide on brigade,than on battalion than on company and im the end na small units ... In the end on 4 soldiers squads.
Russians dramatically increased their pace after this video lol. Good work on this very good watch
Full scale invasion?
I subscribed
Ok, I assume your loses estimations based on ukr sources.... I would like to see more neutral videos. But it your chanal, of course
*Why is the kurk ofensive even sustainable for the ukranians Even with the Little NATO Assistentence they got*
come on bro we all know russians don't have tactics
“Russian does not launch meat wave assault since the end of bakhmut”
Told me everything i needed to know and i stopped right there
i mean, history legends even made a detailed analytical video on how this meat wave idea is just pure propaganda.
Okay so explain to me why it took 4 months for the Ukrainian army to capture Robotyne? Or does “meat wave assaults” only apply to Russians whenever they go on the offensive? You need to understand that this is a brutal full scale attritional warfare, the losses will always be high for both sides.
@@thiefsleef6752 Here's the other thing. The fact he said that Russians were even using this, not that it stopped a long time ago.
Sorry that facts do not align with your idea of reality
Thats as far as l went as well. This guy is another propaganda mouth piece.
SLAVA ROSSII!
Знаете что говорит украина в новостях что город Угледар очень маленький дотационный и стратегического значения не имел
How so that the 55th Artillery Brigade wasn't able to suppress enemy advances? If they didn't have enough shells, why? What about the artillery elements of other brigades?
Also, since when they have lack of drones? I thought on that part of front Ukrainians had multiple drone units operating day/night.
Well, perhaps it had something to do with the fact that the brigade defending Vuhledar, and possibly also the nearby ones, had a terrible battle attrition. They had been stationed there for 2 years, and considering that Vuhledar is a strategic place which had been under major assault a few times, those artillery units must've suffered losses too.
Perhaps it was no coincidence that the attack took place after the Kursk offensive. The Russian must've known about the Ukraine's reserve situation, which made them confident that Ukraine wouldn't have the ability to deploy another force in time.
But for Drones, I think no one knew what happened. But the flank assaults were carried by soldiers riding motorcycles which would be an easy target for drones. The fact that there were minimum amount of drones harassing them perhaps suggest either those units suffered shortages or attrition, or there was a heavy Russian jamming activities.
Russians were moving in this sector for over a year the assault started even before avdiivka fell , the surprise Russian breakthrough near pokrovsk made the high command to shift all resources in that area as they Russians can't be allowed to reach pokrovsk as it is the backbone of defense in Donbass , many brigades which were supposed to fight in the area weren't manned in favour of brigades fighting near pokrovsk thus culminating the defence of southern donbass . Even now Ukrainian highcommand is try to relieve pokrovsk with counter attacks while Khurakove the epicenter of defence in southern sector is being flanked .
@@tadoshka5170 Soldiers driving motorcycles are NOT an easy target for drones and it takes more drones to make casualties.
Another propaganda channel. Casualties During war are top secret but this clown trows battalion worth of losses for the russians left and right.
There are confirmed losses with photos
@@tedarcher9120 u can't confirm losses by photo, especially when some clowns count multiple times one tank from different angles like oryx or whatever it is and estimate losses from their imagination while the whole crew just left the tank before it was completely destroyed.
Sub
Clown
let me guess, they drone the shit out of what they want to attack for two weeks, then they shell defensive hard points for a couple more days and 2 hours before the attack they start a massive artillery barrage while they outflank the city from two sides while another assault group moves into the center? they have been doing this shit since Bakhmut