Can the EU afford to expand? │Business Beyond
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- Опубликовано: 26 апр 2024
- Vladimir Putin’s land grab has catapulted EU expansion back to the top of Europe’s agenda. For the first time in decades, EU leaders are pushing for the bloc to grow. But the countries in line to enter the EU are poorer than those already in the Union. And many Europeans worry that enlargement will threaten their livelihoods. In this episode, we investigate whether the EU can really afford to expand and who the winners and losers of EU enlargement could be.
And a special request to our viewers: we would love to hear what you think of Business Beyond. Fill in the survey here to share your thoughts about the show: surveys.dw.com/c/businessbeyond
Chapters:
Intro 00:00 - 01:23
Why enlarge now? 01:24 - 04:09
What’s the EU 04:10- 05:28
Ukraine in the EU 05:29 - 09:39
Western Balkans in the EU 09:40 - 13:27
Security vs money 13:28 - 16:08
Past enlargement success 16:09 - 17:43
Conclusion 17:44 - 19:07
Survey 19:08 - 19:30
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#ukraine #europe #farmers
Poles submitted an application for membership in 1994 and spent 10 years trying to adapt the country and the market to the EU, only to join the EU in 2004. Many companies went bankrupt, many privatizations. Yes, Poland first had to meet the preliminary conditions to join the EU.
The same as other countries.
And now its an essential ally of the union. God bless the poles
Has less to do with farming, and more to do with the fact that they created a false economy by subsidizing farming for decades.
this!
Well it has to do with some (quality) standards... we dont want imported modified food
The premise about Ukraine's farming industry is all wrong. They would have to meet up to EU standards before becoming a member. There would off course also be heavy negotiations with every member state until they feel it would be safe to allow Ukraine to join.
Netherlands is the biggest agricultural produce exporter in the world, after US. Poland with large farmlands and other countries with much cheaper labor joining EU didn't hurt them, it just caused more innovations.
Poland is considerably wealthier now and the farmers are eligible for innovation funds to adapt. Ukraine has the best soil in the world for agriculture, this could be benefit to Ukraine and EU alike
🌟🌟🌟🌟0:34 EU plutocrats are the few ones to benefit 💰💰💰💰💰of an enlarged Östen Lumpenproletariat 🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪
@@netiturtleIs not about soil, Is about legislations Ukraine dosn't follow, they have to check those to reach EU law and quality
@@XTheLolX301 and they wont be be able to join until they do. EU has disciplinary effect. Ukraine is largely in same place as many of the new EU nations, including mine and Poland, once were. Remember horse meat?
When I was in college, I wrote a research paper. One of the books that I used as a reference was published in 1848. It mentioned ukraine as a granary of Europe. So one has to imagine what sort of addition it would be to current agriculture in Europe. With today's technology, ukraine will soon be granary to Europe again.
Now Poland knows what happened in Spain Portugal and Greece when Poland joined the European union. The same way the Belgians and French felt when Portugal and Spain joined the European union... welcome to the club. This ride is not all roses.
The issue is that the EU makes many environmental and animal-friendly regulations and if we let Ukraine ignore these, its not fair. EU should either revoke the laws for everybody, force Ukraine to adopt EU standards or tax imports.
@@janchi_stephanchi Of course these will not be ignored. There will also be transitional arrangements like all other new entrants had.
Still our country benefited from it without it today we would be stuck in the 50s or something, downside is brain drain we suffer
@@jaxvoice718 agree if they join properly, but lately EU let Ukraine transport grain trough EU, and a lot of it stayed here and it wasn't taxed. This is what pissed off the farmers.
@@janchi_stephanchisomeone should tell those farmers there's a war going on and so exceptions were made for that reason. Let's see how they would have liked it if they had been invaded by Russia while not being in EU or NATO and the EU wouldn't have let Polish products in. I doubt they would have thought it was OK...
It would be interesting to compare how ready the Western Balkan countries are compared to the readiness of Romania and Bulgaria back when they joined the EU.
what do you think?
rOmania *
No big science needed. Romania and Bulgaria NEVER satisfied the criteria to join. They had 200 euros of average salary back when they joined in 2007. Is that what we call "ready for the tough EU market. Western Balkans countries now got MUCH better numbers than Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary in 2004, when they joined. Baltics only had 14 000 dollars of GDP PPP per capita in 2004. Montenegro now is getting close to 30 000 dollars of GDP PPP, but today Baltics got even above the 45 000 dollars of the GDP PPP. Cause of all these years in the EU.
Perhaps DW News can make a parallel video focused on the security dimension of EU enlargement towards Ukraine and the Balkans. European integration is a peace project, it has been the main motivation from the very beginning. The world has come to focus on the economic dimension of the EEC and EU Single Market, perhaps it is time to clarify the security dimension.
that would not fit the narrative of ultra left wing DW
Those new members are problem even from security perspective. It is not clear what would happen with Ukraine after this war. In the Western Balkans the potential for war and ethnic conflict is everyday reality. Serbia does not stick to EU foreign policy like Hungary and permanently talks about border change. Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia are on the brink of collapse. EU opened the doors for North Macedonia and Albania a year ago. Albania arrested a small city major because he is Greek. North Macedonia does not want to include the bulgarians in the constitution as ethnic group- they have turks, serbs, roma and many more- but no place for bulgarians. it is brutal discrimination that last for 80 years. The bulgarians opened a cultural club a year ago- the club was set on fire, the members were brutally beaten, medical access was denied and the Bulgarian president sanded his airplane to transport a 21 years old old to be treated in bulgarian hospital. The attacker was declared national hero. No media coverage what is going on in the Western Balkans. Those countries are a huge problem. Especially in the Western Balkans were the project for new Austro-Hungarian Empire is alive. We already have Hungarian club in this region.
Big French, German & Benelux companies want to buy up agricultural land in Ukraine and use it to price farmers in their countries out of business
And on the other hand, they get cheap labor force to work in those countries...
One thing is certain: we live in the best Europe ever. This is clear to anyone who takes a look at history.
Viking Age Europa was the best, but this will have to do
@@Perun944 ???????????
@@maronily What, you don't understand sarcastic wit?
Overall, enlargements have been, and should continue to be beneficial, although they may create local and temporary problems. But the biggest issue hasn't been discussed here: reforms of the EU itself are critically needed before any enlargement can take place. Another Hungary would spell the end of the Union.
Specifically, the EU must abolish the veto privileges, at least for the new potential members, if not for the current ones. Also critically important is a mechanism for suspending or terminating memberships of the states that violate core principles of the Union (such as Hungary, at present).
In the meantime, freedom of movement and trade can expend. This can easily be done *before* the admission of a new member-state. With a full freedom of movement (people, goods and services), a candidate state can wait as long as it takes for the EU to pass the critical reforms mentioned above.
but then these core principles that the EU works on should be agreed upon by member states and nto just pushed from Brussels
@@demran17 They are clearly agreed on in the Treaty itself. If a candidate doesn't like them, they are not welcome to join. They can join Russia or something...
Vetos are a safety valve against tyranny of the majority one a single member. There’s a need for that. Not sure if it has to be by the veto, where only one vote is needed though.
We don’t want more Hungaries in the EU.
Ukraine will destroy the EU economy and NATO. Russia has started to tighten its noose on the Western Allies in a slow space.
Serbia, of course.
@@jacekboczarski6698, Serbia is a huuuge no. They want to be USSR, let them be USSR haha.
@@Tom-vm2nm
Serbia just want to benefit from EU economically and at the same time be a Russian satellite state.
This is why people in Serbia side with Russia to begin with. Unlike Russia, the EU is full of animosity between the states and especially towards the eastern part of Europe. Stop spreading hate and you'll see how we can all get along. @@andin3720
Do you have a Spotify Podcast where I can listen to this? I hope you have
9:15 what is she talking about? The 6 Western Balkan nations plus Georgia and Moldova have nowhere near the population of the UK. Not to mention that, if they did, that would not be "peanuts"
Those 6 western Balkans country have total population of 15milion people and they all have negative demographic if EU waits another 20 years to accept them they will be at 10 following these trends...
@@Dotalol123 if EU accepts them faster, they would depopulate faster. And actually what would be beneficial to immigrats to the west in those countries, is NOT joining, as after joining, VAT gets implemented (increasing prices of everything) and house prices go up... So if you're an immigrant, the bigger the purchasing power difference between your home country and the west, the better for you
Wouldn't this translate to cheaper goods being bought by the people, which is good for consumers. I don't see anything wrong with Ukaraine coming with cheaper produce coming in the EU. More competition, more affortable prices.
Ukraine was selling it's agricultural production to Europe after the association agreement and that's from the year 2015. But now after the war began polish farmers became so active.... That's only about the dotations that's it. It's a manipulation of facts
Most of Ukrainian grain was going to Africa and Middle East.
Aren’t cheaper grain prices good for the consumers?
Unfortunately.... not... for farmers... it's comparable to China flooding the world with cheap products... it kills local businesses...
Lower prices = lower quality
Do you want to eat low-quality food?
@@karo2090 But who said it's low quality?
With more chemicals, pesticides etc
When the UK left the EU the country went downhill. I am living here and I can tell you. So that's saying something.
Not sure why Ukraine’s accession is such a big deal. 20 years ago we left in Poland and 7 other former eastern block countries. Poland’s population is quite similar in size to that of Ukraine.
The EU coped very well.
The new members did very well, at least economically. It is unfortunate the democratic backsliding in Hungary.
But other than that, huge success
The video mentions that subsidies are funded and distributed relative to the wealth of member states, which means Poland rather than remaining the greatest recipient would become another payee if Ukraine is admitted. In addition, that would also become compounded by cheap products or services that outcompete domestic industries, and people may not have an appetite to be charitable for the short term, despite it being likely this economic hurdle will ease out in the long term. Honestly, everything can depend on how farmers compete by moving upwards in the chain, which means buying the very grain pricing you out and adding value like baking or other ideas to process those raw materials, but personally it may be pretty risky to basically encourage outsourcing agriculture to another country.
@@unknownfugitive225 When Poland joined the 🇪🇺EU, the 🇬🇧UK was a large net contributor. The 🇩🇪German economics power house was running like a V12 engine and they did not have to rebuild a war devistated country. Those funds are not now available. if 🇺🇦Ukraine joins the EU it would be entitled to €186 billion over 7 years. 🇵🇱Poland gets a net contribution of €12.9 billion per year at the moment which would surely be diminished.
Luxembourg 🇱🇺probably needs to contribute more and so does Switzerland 🇨🇭that basically has a defacto membership of the EU
@@Geometric-Rate Hey, thank you for pulling up the exact dynamic behind the situation - pretty informative stuff.
@@unknownfugitive225all these arguments can be applied to when Poland and 9 other EU countries joined the EU in 2004 and 2007.
The EU coped back then and it will cope in the next expansion.
True that the UK is out as a net contributor, but many eastern states have grown considerably (Poland is supposed to overtake the UK GDP/capita in PPP terms some time in this century) so they can contribute financially.
And the farmers will adapt. Just like when German , French , Italian and Spanish farmers had to adapt back in 2004 And 2007.
@@LucasMalki What arguments? I'm not really advocating anything, instead rather discussing facts from that video and sharing my personal impression, as they were relevant to your comment, so that's more of a discussion.
One has to look at big businesses in countries that want to join the European union. They will haven to lower their prices, improve crevices, also. And they might be not so forthcoming to new competition.
Ultimately what it boils down to is that the wealthier countries who pay more in than they take out won't be affected much
But the poorer countries who rely on money from EU would feel the pinch in the short term
In the long term more members/territory means more room for growth and overall would make for a stronger Europe
That's only in theory!
Every memberstate more - and all of them who joined the last 20 years - make a greater financial burden to the EU, as well as a higher bureaucratic burden. The functioning of the EU as such becomes ever more difficult.
Strength in numbers...
more new members means more people to work cheap jobs and sustain the profitable industries in wealthier EU countries
@@demran17 You're wrongly assuming that new members bring ONLY uneducated people into the EU... Ukraine has some of the most well-educated people in Europe... as evidenced by their ingenuity in the war.
@@brianquigley1940 same happens with well educated people as well. A lot of companies from wealthy EU states just outsource their tech projects to countries where the labour is cheaper.
Did Polish (ect) farmers meet EU agricultural standards before they joined the market or did they only do so after joining the EU and gaining those funds? It's only seems fair that Ukraine follows those steps in order to maintain their improving relations with their neighbors.
I think after being allowed to sell, otherwise no Germans/French would not let it happen to eat stuff which is carcinogenic due to pesticide used - back then they have had the press and labour unions/organizations to let the media know
@@CR-rm4iy Sorry, I'm still not clear; they met the standard after joining the market or before that?
Poles submitted an application for membership in 1994 and spent 10 years trying to adapt the country and the market to the EU, only to join the EU in 2004. Many companies went bankrupt, many privatizations. Yes, Poland first had to meet the preliminary conditions to join the EU.
@@Zielony_Ork3 Thank you!
One thing is certain: we live in the best Europe ever. This is clear to anyone who takes a look at history.
Montenegro is so close! Been living here for a year and if feels like an EU country ❤
What are you talking about? For 14 years Montenegro managed to solve just 6 accession chapters out of 33! By this tempo you wont be member for 60 years...
Yes.
But candidates will need to fill all entry requirements
This is really interesting but I would love to know where you're getting the data from. It seems like this is overly positive. I know there are more complications than you present here and would enjoy reading some of the documents for myself if I can.
Come on. It's just an "EU enlargement pill" ad
This was an excellent video to watch on the subject. It would be nice to see a similar political analysis on how the EU countries view the UK rejoining. The english speaking media has the UK able to return whenever it chooses to return. This video shows that the entry process is not straightforward due to politics. Canadian viewer who is a fan of the channel.
UK is generally not able to "just rejoin". If you were told that, it's incorrect. It was made quite clear to the UK when they left, back during Brexit, that doing so would be a permanent thing, and getting back into the EU would not be a straight forward quick decision they could do later. Even if everyone just agreed instantly, the paper work and whole setup itself is a process that's close to a decade long.
The UK will eventually come back into the EU, but the whole anti EU sentiment has to vanish, which means the older generation may have to die out to give youth lean way in decision making..
There is zero chance of that happening, neither of the biggest political parties support rejoining eu these days. For better or worse that fight is over apart from a few diehards on both sides screaming into the void on RUclips, but when citizens are asked about their concerns, the eu doesn’t even make the top ten concerns anymore which means the population is finally past that fight.
Leaving the EU was beyond foolish...
@@brianquigley1940 may be (depending on opinions), but point is, that decision has been made and it’s in the past. We all need to make the best of it, and to work together with eu when it makes sense and learn how to overcome our differences when there are the occasional disagreements.
Very nice video, going to different locations to shoot. Doing research, great job!
The real question is: do Europeans feel other Europeans as their own families? If not, it won't work. And the answer is: they don't, not at all. They are usually quite sceptical on others, from the west to east, from north to south, even neighbouring states. The Flemish people cannot have it that their money is sent to Walloons because the Flemish doesn't see Walloons as their own people. This is just from a tiny little country of Belgium. Give you the opposite example: in highly homogeneous countries like Japan, China, the population don't have problem to pay poorer provinces because that's my own people! This will not happen between Germans and Greeks, Dutch and Bulgarians, I rather say they create more hatred once it comes to real money and contribution.
Wow 😂 family family. I bet u don't consider your siblings as a family .
This! 100%
yes all of the European continent is more or less like family, therefore we should welcome Ukraine, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, Moldova. Criteria must be fulfilled though.
@@MotoRide. Argentina should also join EU, what about morocco, méxico and Thailand too. A huge family.
and Russia@@MotoRide.
It has to afford it, similarly to other European countries waiting and working for their membership. However, I would still change part of the vetoing system, because the likelihood of some important decision not going through is increasing with every member, leading to stalemates like we've seen with Victator Orbán. There also needs to be a better system for sanctioning countries, that are degrading their democracies. Otherwise, the EU will be full of little authoritarian countries with huge in-country influence as well as diminish its effectiveness and efficiency, which isn't that great at the moment.
All countries who want to become EUmembers have to fulfill the same criteria and follow EU acquis.
This concerns i.a. economy, agriculture, finance, justice, ...
For Ukraine a long way ahead !
First of all they should strictly counterdict corruption! - 2nd place in Europe after Russia is not a "letter of recommendation" to EU !!!
Ukraine is more honest then the EU
@@tomhenry897 Unfortunately not, it's systematic corruption there. They have to learn a lot!
No need to exaggerate, we support Ukraine but no need to lie about what they they do
At first, the EU needs some important reforms about voting, and the different goals and speeds countries would like to go forward with in the EU. And the fact that it is already so hard to get these done with all the vetos, and different opinions is further prove that we need reforms before expanding, and making serious reforms more unlikely in the process.
Such a crazy idea
Endless enlargement is an imperial policy. Integrating Ukraine with the EU, may create a scenario similar to the Cold War, which is already happening.
Everyone wants to get paid and NOT to pay. Polish economist had a point - when you don’t want to adapt to new realities you will have to fight for survival.
Georgia is not a Balkan country 10:16
COME ON GERMANY SHIZA 🇩🇪
Nicely spotted. "Expert" speaking complete nonsense and it was also not corrected.
@4mb127 I think the example used about Balkan countries joining the EU would be "like the UK" was pretty inaccurate as well. In terms of population & socio economics, it would be more like Romania joining. considering the UK has 40 million more people than all those countries combined and is much wealthier.
And this "business beyond", would worry me because it would only benefit large companies and turn our dreams into a giant nightmare.
See, the real question is can the new members afford to be part of the EU or they will crush like Bulgaria. New members is just an expansion of the markets for western companies..........
In China there’s a recent popular saying “board the bus and shut the door”. Polish farmers seem to be exactly doing that, they joined EU in 2004 and benefited hugely and once they are in, they don’t want new competition from their easter neighbor.
Can you tell me that popular saying in Chinese?
German farmers didn't block Polish farmers when they dumped product on their market
That just shows how entitled Poland is! For years they got to drain huge sums of money out of the EU due to the narrative of the EU gaining access to a „new market“, while Poland got more extreme, less democratic and never listens to what the EU wants them to do.
Like you always take but never give back, Poland‘s EU story on a nutshell.
What did we get after years of spending money on Poland? Not that much that would justify the amount of money wasted..
Nor is Poland protesting against Russian grain, imports of which have reached its peak since 2019. And Ukraine's imports are just transiting through Poland I believe, or has this changed?
Polish Agro market is 10x larger than German?
@@netiturtleNo, Russian grain is marginal, Ukraine is engaging in fraud deals, yes they dumped the grain inside EU, their transport companies started to operate illegaly when they entered EU, and it was suposed to be time period only while their ports were blocked, they ain't blocked anymore so it is old style Ukrainian oligarchy corruption story, abusing an helping hand from Poland.
@@netiturtle Obviously they are not just transiting though Poland. If they did we wouldn’t have a problem.
While contracting your economy due to high energy cost ?
Sure, why not
Yes, of course they should expand to include Greenland
greenland is already part of th eeu for all intents and purposes
@@nelsonjanusson7278really? didn't know that.
@@Eugene-rq8kr Greenland is a part of Denmark and since Denmark is an EU member state Greenlad is counted as part of the overseas countries and territories( OTC) which gives greenlanders all the same priviledges as any other EU citizen.
If they want to sell products in the European Union, then, just like Poland, it had to adapt to all standards before joining the EU, and it does not turn out that products from Ukraine that arrive do not meet any standards.🤷♂️
Some of us in Balkans wanted to join EU and seriously think about it 35 years ago. Now it's not even a topic. People don't believe they will benefit, don't believe they will be equally accepted, don't believe anything anymore and simply majority don't want to enter EU. I guess it is the same for Turkey and will be the same for Moldova and Ukraine after 20 more years.
Simply, we don't want to enter. You spread your concerns of joining. It looks like mutual interests to give up pressuring us to join. How about that?
Romania and Bulgaria are crazy corrupt. They were given EU membership too early.
The countries that contribute to the EU budget instead of only taking money out of it learned from their mistake and are more cautious with admitting new member countries.
Having euro currency makes transactions even easier 😅 that's hilarious oversimplification
Everything is going as planned.
Non-competitive methods will only and exclusively harm the market. In the end, consumers are paying and will be paying more and more day by day for every single non-market politically motivated obstacle for free trade. This is basics of economics. You may believe in it, or not, it just work. Like gravity. You even may actively refuse to believe in it, still if you'll jump of the cliff, you will fall. Only viable option for Polish farmers now is to adapt or change field of economic activity. Like German farmers did in the past.
The issue is that the EU makes many environmental and animal-friendly regulations and if we let Ukraine ignore these, its not fair. EU should either revoke the laws for everybody, force Ukraine to adopt EU standards or tax imports.
"non-competitive methods" is a falaciouis start to your argument... subsidies are the lifeblood of all economies...
@@brianquigley1940 no, just no. subsidies SHOULD BE used when is "a temporary dip" for any critical brunch of economy have. 1-3 years at max. after that subsidies should be removed. other way you just corrupting you economy with unsustainable things. an extreme and hyperbolized example will be ussr economy.
Let’s see this for EU examination came out in the world. They will be passed or not, future will show us?
The EU really screwed Macedonia.
North Macedonia is not even in the EU
Nah, you screwed yourself.
Monkeydonia, Yes!
Ukraine will destroy the EU economy and NATO. Russia has started to tighten its noose on the Western Allies in a slow space.
Well they just shrunk when Britain left
The elites love this.
the problem is that the western "developed" world cannot grow grain
The eu expansion
Will hit the existing eu countries negatively economically 😢😢 if Ukraine joins forget the golden years for europe🎉🎉🎉
Two Polish farmers have been interviewed, but ZERO Ukrianian farms. Is it reporter standard of DW?
Perhaps because in Ukraine most of the land is owned
by international companies and not by farmers?
DW is a US asset. Ukraine will destroy the EU economy and NATO. Russia has started to tighten its noose on the Western Allies in a slow space.
Is Ukraine part of EU?
No.
Maybe, cuz it's still a warzone
Eastern Europe defended the west with their lives and all their livelyhood for centuries, not to mention the way the way the west is exploiting the countries that enter in EU should be more more than enough to compensate the costs of raising the quality of life in the poorer countries, so let's be real and do what is right.
don't join the EU then. Even us in the West don't want to be part of this shambles.
😂😂
There definitely need a tier system for EU countries that ranks them and separates the economic power houses from small underdeveloped countries.
The whole idea of the EU was economic cooperation, the idea of unificating the continent was later introduced and was more of an ideological goal then an economic one..
>The whole idea of the EU was economic cooperation,
No it wasn't. It's always was when most power countries use it's leverage to quote out weakest ones. Ask Bulgaria about argiculture or Baltic about their Ignalina nuclear power plant.
It was not just the economic cooperation from the beginning, anyway the idea is not to unify, but how can you cooperate without following same values and market rules?
Creating two tiers makes sense only in terms of integration, not in terms of power. If we treat small poor countries as second tier we are no better then Russia and China. We Europeans protect the weak, help the poor and treat them as equals.
You need powerful allies, otherwise it's a one sided deal. Too big of anything also tends to splinter. And the shift to the right is also not helping the push for enlargement. If anything we need to stabilize and consolidate. Not enlarge
The US will go wherever it wants to go, preferably back to their senses. But Europe has good relationships with almost everyone, Russia excepted.
The EU is not exactly growing at breakneck speed. There was a big bang in 2004, but otherwise expansion is very gradual.
@@jaxvoice718 but do we have to grow? Who is the next after the Balkan states and Ukraine? Georgia and Turkey?... and then? Maybe Armenia?...ppuhhh...
I think ideally we would both stabilize and consolidate, and at the same time enlarge to geographically sound borders that make sense and ensure resources for EU independence
@@LorenzSeebauerThe EU needs to incorporate countries with a younger population and a not too different culture/religion. Germany made a BIG sacrifice (and rightly so) when they said no to Russian fossil fuels to help Ukraine, but if the German industry is on its knees, the EU wallet will be much thinner. There is no more money for countries who refuse economic reform and instead wants the EU (read: Germany) to pay for their ageing populations.
An EU, as big as Europe, is the goal.
But, accepting countries that are not compiling to the EU standards is idiotic.
just as accepting ukraine in EU or NATO just because they are at war with russia.
5:26 Lol Riga 🤣🤣🤣🤣
So far EU has a big dissapointment for me as a Georgian and to my people, I am very close to loosing my hope of getting accepted as a family member that should not have had been alone first place. Whitnessing my country become something from nothing alone by itself while going through several invasions/wars alone I believe anything is possible, especially for Ukraine. I'd say somewhen and it's only matter of time.. Eastern Europe will make it with each other's help and after this happens Western Europe will need the East but it will be too late because the East will not need the West anymore
If done well(!), accepting new members will be beneficial for the EU. Economically, politically, culturally and geo-strategically.
My dream of the EU is a bit faded. They talked about economic profits, but on the other side they want to raise new taxes to cover the costs? So what about the people of current member states?... do they profit, too? The EU should be an alliance to improve the security of the member states. In think new members should increase the security of the union and the other members, and not import problems, risks and deficits. The EU shouldn't be just about economy and geostrategy. The EU is already overstretched. Brexit was a sign, that there is something wrong. As a German I feel much closer to the British, instead to e.g. the balkan countries. The idea of Georgia (in the Caucasus!) as a potential member state is just crazy.
You confused NATO with EU my mate. EU is an economic alliance. And ye, some countries benefit from it greatly (to name few: Germany, Poland, Netherlands... [so mainly countries that have pretty strong industry; in Poland industry started to boom]).
Some weird statements in the video - taking in Western Balkans, Moldova and Georgia (population ~ 21mln) is a "grain of sand", but taking in Ukraine (population 30-35mln) - big deal and very expensive? Quite comparable amounts of people
I think it's explained clearly, even if not directly:
1. Ukraine is just one country with that many people, which will immediately grant them a lot of power in the EU structures.
2. It is a giant in agriculture, unlike other candidates, and 2/3 of the EU budget are subsidies for farmers. Every country currently in the EU will have to lose, so that Ukrainians get some.
3. It's the only country from the list that will need to be rebuilt after the war, to the tune of trillions of dollars (the video mentions 500 billion, but that's likely lowballing it).
Ukraine and the Balkan countries are some of the most corrupt ones IN THE WORLD. But while admitting a few small corrupt countries is manageable while taking in Ukraine or Turkey is beyond manageable.
If poorer countries want in - They likely rely heavily on outdated agriculture practices as well as any industrial assets. Best thing is to help them improve their outdated agricultural practices with maintaining these practices in a more modern ways WITHOUT going high tech. Imagine agricultural products that they could produce ny not going the expensive high tech and likely toxic ways. Much the same with and Industries, no need for crazy high priced Tech. All they need is a boost in more efficient methods without the expenses. Look where the High Tech got us so far - In reality
The "silver lining" of getting your country destroyed is that the new industry will not be obsolete, but often cutting-edge. Everything rebuilt will be to the newest EU standards.
Ukraine will destroy the EU economy and NATO. Russia has started to tighten its noose on the Western Allies in a slow space.
DW is European CNN
Better than foxy news murdoch, trumpeting lies with intent to divide and incite, hence brexit
Yep.
Absolutely 💯 like look spending 20 min listening to some women talking about economy 😂
@@jaaksavat7916 which lies are those?
You realize CNN has been proven to report lies for years, right?
DW is European?
If we accept Ukraine, we will need EU army. The EU will be Russia's only neighbor to the west (Belarus will be annexed into Russia immediately after war in Ukraine ends). Ukraine would also need to become EU's or NATO's protectorate for the interim period before it joins the EU and NATO (joining NATO should non-negotiable part of joining EU).
I'm not against the EU in principle, but.... It has to be a union of equals. Equal prosperity and similar social values. It isn't a union of equals - I won't name the countries, but just give directions :).
Some of the problems:
- SE counties have corruption and poverty.
- N countries generally stick to fiscal rules, S ones don't.
- Socially some of the E countries have antique social attitudes.
- Two E countries support the dictator Putin.
- Countries that have profitable business types support those that have unprofitable business types (usually agriculture).
- SW and NE (not Baltics) countries have no work, so many of the young move to a more affluent country. This reduces wages in the destination country and leaves problems behind in the source country. House prices and rents in the destination country go through the roof (sorry), and the culture of the destination country is affected. 11:46 "Citizens in the western Balkans earn on average just 14% of their European neighbours." Most of the youth would move to a richer EU country.
- Supporting agriculture benefits some countries but costs others a fortune.
Comments in the video
3:52 It's all about business! No mention of social effects on new and old members.
9:20 "Polish farmers could try to produce more complex products." That's EU talk which means "We are so determined to increase our power by expanding that we don't give a **** about a current member.
A very skewed analysis... what's your agenda?
@@brianquigley1940The question was "Can the EU afford to expand" I think not. What is *your* agenda?
@@evaluateanalysis7974 I asked first, Mr In Principle (you opening was a dead giveaway as a straw man argument)... The properly stated question is... rhetorical ... what happens if the EU does NOT expand? Putin's wannabe tsarist ambitions require strength in numbers... before it's too late.
@@brianquigley1940
"straw man argument" A straw man fallacy is the informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion.
"The properly stated question is... rhetorical ... what happens if the EU does NOT expand? " That was NOT the question stated, so it is *YOU* making the straw man argument.
"Putin's wannabe tsarist ambitions require strength in numbers" By a trade bloc? LOL!
@@evaluateanalysis7974 Thank you for showing your agenda... you let your pride give you away... Mr In Principle...
Rich and poor countries have mutual benefits. Cheap labour from poor countries and elderly societies like Germany and Italy for example.
colonies expand, democracy accepts, change your title -.-
Everything has its own limit 👍.
Expanding the EU comes with its challenges. Poorer countries may join while richer ones might consider leaving, potentially destabilizing the union. If economic growth is sluggish, Balkan countries might lose interest, leading to division within Europe once again.
If you think of the EU as a kind of nation, it's interesting how other nations are eager to be annexed and how the EU is resisting a long-term increase in political, geographical and economic wealth.
Though understandable, given the potential cultural incompatibility and initial economic burden, it's less easy to understand why, e.g., the topic of immigration (which holds very similar characteristics) is handled in such a different manner.
I guess they're afraid of spreading themselves thin like the Roman Empire did
The EU cannot add the poor Balkan or Eastern European nations. Only country they can add is Norway and you already know Norway doesn’t want to be in the EU
DW: Can the EU afford to expand?
ChatGPT:
*Economically,* expansion can pose challenges. New member states often require financial assistance to meet EU standards and to support their integration into the union. This assistance can strain the budgets of existing member states, particularly if the new members are less economically developed.
*Politically,* expansion can be complex. Each new member brings its own set of political dynamics and priorities, which can affect the functioning of the EU as a whole. Additionally, existing member states may have concerns about the implications of expansion on issues such as sovereignty, immigration, and decision-making processes within the EU institutions.
*Socially,* expansion can impact cultural and social cohesion within the EU. It may lead to increased diversity among member states, which can enrich the EU culturally but also pose challenges in terms of integration and social cohesion.
abt time we da ppl stand up against corrupt politicians
Can the EU afford to expand? Asked as a yes or no question. The appropriate question is how slow should the EU expand. At this moment it should expand very slow. After more integration then perhaps expansion could allow one bigger country to join every three years.
So enjoy it,, Do what ever you want,, You will get what you do ,,😂😉
Doesn’t the EU want the balkan countires to join together? Like later they could veto each other because of past and ongoing conflicts. (Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia being close with Russia)
Also, just like in Ukraine, Russia controls a part of the country of both, Georgia and Moldova.
20+ little EU countries must unite further. The Euro, single foreign policy/army and then English as the 2nd official language would make us feel responsible for one another. If we don't start evolving today, the EU won't have any competitive advantages in the world of billion-men-economies of tomorrow.
China surpassed the EU economy with China having more than 18 trillion dollars compared to the USA 🇺🇸 27 trillion dollars.
By 2050 these are going to be the predicted 3 largest economies:
1. USA 🇺🇸 41 trillion dollars
2. China 🇨🇳 40 trillion dollars
3. India 🇮🇳 25 trillion dollars
Chinas economic growth has slowed and is now unpredictable to surpass the USA 🇺🇸 economy by 2050 due to increased US tariffs and sanctions.
India is excepted to rapidly grow in this time period, especially if the USA wants to balance Chinas influence.
@@beasley1232 Thanks for this info. What's the source of these predictions btw?
It seems like polish and czech farmers live in childish illusion about their choices.
Simply put european farmer must decide what he afraid of more.
Is it ukrainian agricultural products or maybe allied ukrainian-russian-belorussian army invading Poland and Czechia?
If in doubt, ask your granny.
Very informative.
Polish farmers: “we afraid of competition”.
Other European people: “but they give us good quality and cheap products! It’s great!”
Polish farmers: “no! We need subsidies, and no rivalry.”
Just remember Ukraine export grains to EU almost 10 years from association. And it was fine until world food prices became low.
Poland ahs to follow EU regulations which leads to higher production costst, it's impossible to compete on the market with other non EU countries that don't have to follow EU regulations
enlargement is always more money for rich people in richer EU countries, while their middle classes see more competition and thus lower salaries. For the poorest countries, joinging EU is good for them at all social classes. If enlargment continues, it is sure sign of the elite running everything and European democracy is just a joke. Brexit caused many problems for the UK but it was and still is a clear display of the democratic force at work. I hope Netherland and Denmark leave the EU regain their political and economic destiny.
Polen used to be a poor country before they entered EU. They got a lot economic support from EU friends. Now they dont want the same support for Ukraine because they then need to contribute. That sounds selfish.
Selfish? The case is completely different
The Ukrainians cheated the Poles!
At the beginning of the war, the Poles helped the Ukrainians as much as they could.
Since Russia blockaded the ports, Poland allowed the grain to pass through its territory.
This grain was supposed to go to Africa because "children in Africa have nothing to eat" The Ukrainians cheated the Poles and the grain was ILLEGALLY sold on Polish territory. What's more, because this grain was not subject to any REQUIRED tests! it turned out that it was often contaminated with toxins or simply rotten. This contaminated grain was unknowingly consumed by Poles.
I would also like to add that most of the grain from Ukraine does not belong to Ukrainian farmers but to international corporations!
I think DW really twisted this one, due to Poland growth it will most likely become a contributor in next EU budget or next after that - sooner than Ukraine could be admitted. The other thing is that Ukraine agricultural production is far bigger than any EU country, so expect every country farmers to protest it.
Poland was not included in Marshall plan even though it was completelly destroyed after the war and one in sixth citizen lost life during WWII. Money from EU are historical justice, secondly western capital gained access to polish market. In total French and German capital earned much more on this market then country gained from EU. Turn on thinking..
@@kubag6695"Poland was not included in Marshall plan" Because it was in the USSR's "sphere of influence" it was up to them to bail Poland out, not the West. They also did some of the destruction. "Historical justice" Only Germany was responsible for it, it wouldn't be fair to ask the whole EU to pay.
Poland has been Ukraine's baby sitter for about 20 years. Poles were banned to work in countries like Germany for 7 years when Poland joined EU. It works both ways.
Came for comments of Ruzzian origin stating how the EU would collapse if Ukraine would join.
Someone seems not to have shown up for work today, there should have been hundreds of them by now. Guess they will wake up eventually, wouldn't want them to get fired, would we.
@@jaxvoice718No ruZZkies yet? They must have an off-day or perhaps kremlin has problems with salary payments?
What is really going on?
If all else fails, try watching the actual video.
@@alexverdigris9939
They will throw money at them, to feed the big city's. But many will poor, woman will quite and bankrupt, while other buy all and will be rich. Ask who are the international investors. They bankrupt and want to rule. Because they and their speaking was the ruler.
Oh look, Bled Strategic Forum, I watched that
No, but that's not going to stop those people in Brussels.
8:30 this guy is manipulating you into thinking that this is the reason they cant compete with the Ukrainian farmers if they allow Ukrainian grain into the single market unrestricted then yes this argument holds up but if they admit Ukraine to the block then these restrictions will also apply to Ukrainian farmers
Only polish farmers have a right to approve or ban new EU members.
When economy balanced out it will be no problems.
Profitable actually...
Remembrr the words when...
Other avenue for growth coop... dunno... maybe... realyy dunno😊
I am starting to understand that EU is also a Security project and not only an economic project. Yes, I know it originaly started mainly as a Security project, but in my lifespand it has been all about money. Anyhow, EU is a great vision and I support it.
Can EU afford NOT to expand?
Another distorted DW video. Poland and other EU members are subject to heavy restrictions, especially climate related ones. That's why there is an EU wide protest of farmers, one that DW also has covered. Yet this lovely non-deceitful channel is trying to mix footage and sentiments surrounding these protests with the far smaller objections over Ukraine, which, not being an EU member, is exempted from these handicaps. It would be a completely different story once they formally join the EU and are burdened by the same regulation, but of course, the D in DW stands for deceit.
There are some in EU who be glad to
trade places .
Frankly if the Balkan countries would actually work together to build their economies then they would be far better then joining the EU
@@right_eu there is a simple theory
called TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER THEORY.
It states that no matter what you do
sooner or later some one will do
it better or cheeper. That's what
Europe is going trough and no matter
if you are in the EU or not in it.
By the way i love the Balkan
countries. Its what is left of
Europe.
Ukraine is selling. Grain 1/4 cheaper than other EU members. Farmers are not happy because they losing money.
Russia secretly wants to join the EU. Russia secretly wants to join NATO. But the main stumbling blocks are Mr. Vladimir Putin and Communism. My deepest apology for the inconvenience. 🙏
Russia is no longer communist, even the USA 🇺🇸 agrees that Russia is not a communist nation, they are a right wing authoritarian nation. And China 🇨🇳 the largest communist nation is only Russias ally because of Chinas hatred for the USA. Ofc China cannot take on the USA alone so they need Russia but if it was up to China, they would’ve wiped out their rebellious northern neighbor by now.
There is only 5 remaining communist nations left, and only 1 is truly communist, it’s Cuba 🇨🇺, Venezuela 🇻🇪, China 🇨🇳, Vietnam 🇻🇳 and North Korea 🇰🇵. Angola 🇦🇴 could also be added honestly.
Ukraine joining EU means that Ukraine becomes the bigger grain producer in Europe, and the Polish farmers are bitching about it because the Ukrainian soil is way more fertile then theirs?..
Its time for Polish Farmers to either compete or innovate into different produce or venture into new fields so Poland can diversify its market which is highly needed in Poland.
Ukraine would make bank of their grain alone!, and that's just a small part of their agricultural prowess, don't blame Ukraine for having good soil..
But Ukraine probably needs high EU standard quality policies..
Netherlands has an advanced agricultural economy, perhaps Poland should be looking to that model for more intensive, higher value-added agriculture. And agriculture may become an ever smaller part of rural incomes, with things like energy production and stewardship of natural landscapes and water bodies, and various services and goods processing becoming more important.
@@fbkintanar I know because i live in The Netherlands, the Netherlands utilize greenhouse production for a more controlled agricultural solution for growing more than The Netherlands needs, which is the reason why we are the second biggest food exporter of the world.
If Poland can do the same then it means that Poland moves forward in their attitude and their own economic growth that would give them the status of a net contributor instead of net beneficiaries..
But i believe Poland has other baskets to fill to make up for it, and it doesn´t have to be the agricultural sector.
I am a Pole and I don’t support blockades. I agree that it’s unfair for farmers who prepared years to abide to EU restrictive food safety and quality regulations that Ukrainian farmers don’t have to follow. I also agree that we should help Ukraine however we can. This is why we should compromise to that and help to find a new markets for Ukrainian grain for example or put limits on them but give them weapons. Every weapon they need to battle Russia and win.
If you want Ukraine to win, accept their grain any questions
I don’t serve Ukraine, like you do
Despite the talk about NATO membership, it was the prospect of Ukraine joining the EU that Russian leadership found unacceptable. It would meaning Ukraine going its own way on economy, politics and socially.
If Ukraine had been in Nato, Putin would have never started that war.
@@Blanka1100 NATO membership is not some kind of magic happen overnight. The moment that Ukraine future NATO membership announced green military men appeared in Crimea.
Sympathy and holding onto the wallet cannot be satisfied at the same time. No one is willing to support a bankrupt country indefinitely, as that would only turn itself into a third or fourth world country.
Only when Ukraine proves its own value and independent economic capabilities it can gain the support for joining the EU.
I think Ukraine in its defence of Europe is doing that
@@RudolphoAqui Ukraine does not defend Europe ! It serves US interests, nothing else !
Before the war that already was a far off dream, but after the war it will be a legend they gonna tell their grand-grand -grandkids..
„Once we used to Dean of becoming part of the EU, my kids“
@@RudolphoAquiUkraine is defending its oligarchs
Ukraine belongs in the EU and will be in the EU eventually. The fears from polish farmers are unhinged. The EU is primarily there for working out fair trade agreements that benefit all parties.
BREAK UP THE EU!!!! remove the EURO!!!!!!!
As a European I would much rather be a BRICS member than joining the EU 🎉🎉🎉 Maybe Hungary has a chance to leave the eu and join Brics
You can always move to the country you prefer
Simply speaking, enlargement secures and chalange whole Europe in respect of future global competition. It will cost Europe as a whole, including Eastern countries like Poland where I live. I clearly remember similar discussions in 2000s where French, Dutch, and Germans were afraid of Polish agriculture. It is fear today for many, but it must be cleared while negotiations because there is no other way to thrive in coming decades. Let,s grow and be stronger together ❤️