Teams you DONT want in Conference Realignment!!
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- Опубликовано: 11 апр 2024
- Conference expansion looks like it might be on the horizon again and as usual the top programs in the G5 start to jockey for position to try and get elevated to the highest level of college football. However, there are many names among these candidates that should never be considered for expansion and yet are. What is the reason for the mindset that elevates these less deserving teams and leaves out other high level and proven candidates like Boise State? I discuss the fundamental problem with the current system and what needs to happen for it to change.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Check out Brian’s channel @ClemsonFootballLive ahead of our discussion about conference realignment and the future of the ACC on Monday!
#conferencerealignment #collegefootball #analysis #boisestate #usf #sdsu #unlv 
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Do you agree or disagree?
100% agree. To me Boise State, ECU, Appalachian State are three schools to consider. All great college towns with loyal fanbases.
@kennethmayner I would definitely take ECU and App over USF
I disagree about USF, and I'm willing to bet that ten to twenty years from now they will be in the P2. Why?
1) Located in a rapidly growing city (Tampa) of a rapidly growing state (Florida) that is already the third largest in the country.
2) Excellent academics with AAU status. It doesn't matter to you and me as fans, but it matters to university presidents who care a great deal about the academic angle.
3) Facilities are improving with an on-campus stadium coming soon.
4) 48k students and growing. A large alumni base is always preferred by the realignment movers and shakers.
Don't be shocked if USF and Central Florida both make the cut into the P2. Yes, the state of Florida is that important. And the cities of Tampa and Orlando are COVETED.
@deadeye4520 I agree because as I said, those in power are unlikely to change their backwards and outdated way of thinking. Just because it is what will probably happen doesn’t mean it is what should happen as I showed in the video. USF will never be able to match the brand and viewership potential of BSU but because of an archaic feudalist system they will likely get the nod over the Broncos
@@BroncoBleymaier I can guarantee you that if FSU goes to the B10, the SEC will seriously look at USF and UCF with the idea of growing their program(s) into a solid SEC level. The rest of the SEC is SCREAMING for games in Florida, and UF by itself is not enough. Now some rebranding might be in order to lose the "directional" nature of the university monikers. UCF could and should go back to being Florida Tech. Not sure what USF could do.
It's all about money. Academics have NOTHING to do with it at this point. This is a business at this point which means money is king.
💯 yet conference presidents still focus on academics 🤦🏻♂️
@@BroncoBleymaier They pay lip service to academics. The SEC is poor academically but because of FBall millions of $ are being thrown at them. Follow the money.
If it's a business and no longer about academics then why are they not paying taxes?
Great podcast with very sound arguments. Never considered many of these arguments. If it’s about TV viewership (the money) which we know it is then there is certainly more to the equation then the size of the city where the university is located. Good stuff! Thanks
It drives me crazy that tv viewership gets cited as the number one factor and then Boise’s tv viewership gets automatically discounted because they don’t have a large tv market. Just makes it seem like they are intentionally trying to come up with reasons to keep BSU out of
Would you say the Boise State has the same potential as UCF did to get into B12 or an imploded and rebuilding ACC (if that happens)? If so, what does Boise have to do to get a P4 invite?
Potential to succeed? Yes. Potential to be selected? No. UCF has a massive alumni base (70,000 students a year) and are located in Orlando. They have the metrics that those in power look for and unlike many other prospects actually match that with in field success. Definitely a program that deserved the P5 boost
I don’t think it’s necessarily on regional markets. The entire SEC is in small college towns. But their national brands that everyone will watch.
💯 Alabama is a perfect example of that which makes the backwards approach to conference expansion all the more infuriating!
Yeah I like Boise, it is an extremely consistent & well run program…and you’re right, the blue turf is absolutely a draw
Spokane has alot of Boise State fans because the Broncos are America's Team !!!
you’re literally the epitome of biased and being coped up. boise state’s stadium holds 37k seats and you just made it sound like it’s the best thing since slice bread, yet you just called USF’s stadium capacity of 35k pathetic.
My point wasn’t that BSU’s stadium of just under 37,000 was what made them a P4 worthy team, my point was that they are maximizing their market potential and far outselling the other G5 teams for P4 consideration. None of that has anything to do, however, with my point on USF’s stadium capacity though. My point is that USF has acknowledged that they do not have the draw that many assume they do by reducing their stadium capacity to half of what it was in one of the most lucrative tv markets because they can not carry the Tampa Bay market and thus are reducing their stadium capacity to a number they can carry which is in fact smaller than BSU a team in a market a third their size. It appears you are the one whose bias is getting in the way of hearing another point of view and facts that counteract your own perspective, just as Major Severky said.
I guess you have to factor in what the conferences are looking for. The SEC, where my Arkansas team plays, is looking for regional teams, assuming they add more teams (which is not a given), so they are not going to be interested in a Boise State, regardless of their record. A conference that is needing teams to survive will be very interested. But the bottom line is that it is all about money. Does adding that team increase the revenue for all the teams, or does it dilute down what each team gets?
Brian is absolutely correct that the fact that someone lives in a metropolitan area doesn't necessarily mean they support the local team. I live in northwest Arkansas, which has been one of the fastest growing areas in the country for many years, and when I walk around the neighborhood, I see a lot of Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State banners out during football season, but these people generally do support Arkansas when they are not playing their team. If for no other reason, it will be to be able to have a relevant conversation at work on Monday, plus the enthusiasm from the local fans does affect them. I watched the women's soccer team play BYU a few years ago, and there was a family sitting with the few BYU folks that I had seen several times before at Razorback soccer games, except this time they were wearing BYU blue & white instead of Razorback red. Their tween age daughter would do the BYU cheers, but also stand up and "call the hogs" when the Razorbacks scored, which shows she had a pretty laid-back attitude about this. This is just an example of how people who have moved to the area CAN support the local school.
The bottom line:
(1) The conferences that desperately need teams to survive are not too concerned about attendance, etc., but
(2) If they are in decent financial shape, like the Big Ten and SEC, they will be looking at whether adding this team increases or decreases each team's revenue when the money is split. And,
(3) It depends on whether the conference is trying to become a national brand (like the Big Ten and Big 12) or remain a regional conference (like the SEC).
Good points but my argument would be that BSU definitely increases the value of any conference it is a part of. No other G5 team has done what BSU has done in the last 20+ years. The on-field success, the level of recruiting, the tv viewership, the level of their national brand awareness, all as a G5 eclipses many P4s and all of the G5. Imagine what they could do as a P4 program? BSU would be on the same level as Alabama. Look at Bama, small tv market yet most watched team in the country. What you do on the field is what matters most.
As a Boise fan, what do you think will be Boise’s best realistic conference outcome? WSU/OSU rebuilding the Pac12 with selected MWC schools including Boise? ACC imploding and rebuilding with top MWC & AAC schools? B12 adding Boise and other schools to ge to 20?
Likely the PAC12 rebuild or possibly the Big 12 adding teams if they lose them to the ACC. PAC12 rebuild is most likely but probably not as likely as simply absorbing those teams into the MW
I hope this video blows up. It’s so frustrating the teams think they are entitled based on where they are located
💯 thank you!
@@BroncoBleymaier see why Oregon State and Washington State are left behind in realignment despite putting good teams on the field.
@tylernelson3343 yup, they were part of the problem keeping BSU and other deserving teams out of the PAC 12 and now they get to reap the rewards. Nice to see the shoe in the other foot
As A OSU Beaver fan, I agree BSU is the top of the G5. However, the P2 will never look at BSU and the B12 will look East for expansion to the ACC left overs. College football is stream lining. WSU and OSU have better tv viewership over the last few yours than the 4 PAC12 schools they did add, and much better than Stanford and Cal that the ACC added. It is their party and the PAC2 and the G5 are not to be invited. Soon I believe Boston College, Wakeforest, & Syracuse will be added. It sucks.
OSU and WSU only have better viewership because of their P5 association, we will see how they do this year in the G5. I still expect it to be higher because of residual P5 association and some national attention as the Pac12 remnant but I expect it to be far lower than previous seasons
Why do you think the P2 will never look at BSU? If not, who will they look at to rebuild?
What do you think of UConn who is usually mentioned with USF and SDSU as P5 backfills
Basketball only school. Should not be an expansion candidate. Basketball accounts for %20 of most teams athletic revenue. Realignment associations especially in the age of the CFP, NIL, and the massive tv contracts being thrown around need to be made primarily off of football.
@@BroncoBleymaierUConn the only G5 left generating $100M annually and this is with terrible football. $50M more than Boise St, USF
$100M is already P5 level and this is with their G5 level media deal. They would be around 130-140M with one
@marcellopollak7055 UCONN isn’t G5, they play in the Big East. Only their football is G5. Unless you are a conference that already has established football that can afford to have an anchor like UCONN attached to it like the SEC or Big 10 you shouldn’t be considering adding UCONN unless you are accepting your status as no longer a competitor on the college football world (where most of the money is made).
@BroncoBleymaier UConn is only making $5M from the BE deal and they get 500K from CBS as an Independent to broadcast their FB games. While it may be in a power Basketball conference it's not getting much from it
In terms of revenue they are making the same as schools like Colorado and KState and this is with terrible football and their current media deals. This is far beyond any other G5 program
@marcellopollak7055 why should UCONN get a piece of the new P4 Football tv marker deal when it produces nothing in football?
I agree that Boise is the gem of the Mountain West. My Alma mater ECU is similar as the attendance leader in the American (around 40K) and outdraws P4 schools like Duke and Wake Forest. Greenville is an undeniable college football town and has always had a competitive football program.
I always remember that awesome Hawaii Bowl in 2007 when Chris Johnson and ECU beat Boise State. Have had a deep respect for the Broncos ever since.
What a game, last minute long field goal to hold off an epic BSU rally by Taylor Tharp and company!
At least ECU has the advantage of being the only program worthy of attendance east of I95. Consider UNC-Charlotte....err....Charlotte. Not only do they have to compete with the NFL in town, the city is especially filled with UNC, NC State, Clemson, and USC fans who leave Charlotte on Football Saturdays to attend games elsewhere.
@@johnlabus7359 I agree. Charlotte has zero atmosphere. It’s the finest example of a commuter school. Appalachian State should have gotten the invite to the AAC and has a long history and rivalry with ECU. Liberty should hopefully get an AAC call up too.
I remember Boise State getting a invite from big 12 but they turned it down because of the travel time and they wanted to see mountain west grow
@glennhamilton5682 Boise State has never received an invite from the Big 12 and that is not why they rejected the offer from the Big East. They rejected the Big East after it became clear they would lose their power conference status
You need to do a video on what if a Super League were to happen and G5 relegation and promotion. Would that be a good thing?
I have done a video on the idea of relegation/promotion. I was the first person to ever publicly voice that idea and my idea was viewed by members of the CFP expansion committee. However I expanded the idea of relegation and promotion to all teams not just G5. m.ruclips.net/video/TBZFN7w9ho0/видео.html&pp=gAQBiAQB
Never mind USF and its problems in Tampa, UM can't hold its own in Miami and they are already in a power 4 conference. The practically new Inter-Miami soccer club already has more visibility in South Florida than UM. I rarely see Miami gear here but I see that dusty pink of Inter Miami everywhere on little kids and grown men alike.
Fantastic point! It’s all about the team and fan base culture, not about the city size
Miami local here. In Miami though there are many license plates with a “ U” on it though. Gonna have to disagree here. Inter Miami has a HUGE following because of Messi and Miami is overwhelmingly Latino. The Hurricanes have a strong following in South FL. The attendance can be lacking because UM is a small private school with a small alumni base that lives mostly out of state. Most Miami fans did not attend UM and fans can be fair weather because they have to compete with other pro sports teams and the beach. Now for USF, they’re just so behind the other schools. Actually, UM has a solid following in Tampa.
All great points and shows how hard it is to build a following in South Florida. If Miamis hadn’t established itself decades ago it may be where USF is now. As it is USF is too far out of the picture
As a Houston alum and bigger CF fan, I feel for Boise. Many of us loved Boise in the early 2000’s after the Fiesta Bowl win. Playing any P5 team anywhere was awesome. But it seems Boise lost its perceived mojo once Boise joined the MWC. I remember hearing there were big plans to expand Albertson’s stadium beyond the suites expansion. Did the stadium capacity expand? Boise’s perception as a small TV market as well as not being a top academic school makes it a challenge to draw interest from the former Pac-12 or the current B12. So IMO, Boise’s only chance to become at P4 is for the ACC to implode with 6-10 teams leaving for the B1G/SEC/B12. Then the remaining ACC could bring in WS/OSU plus several G5 such as USF, Tulane and Memphis plus west schools such as SDSU, Fresno, CSU and Boise. But guess what, remaining schools like Stanford & Cal will try to block Boise since they won’t want to be associated perceived inferior academic schools like Boise. Boise should try to play as many P4 schools each year in OOC games to get more attention and build up the FB program.
The main issues for BSU were two fold. Shifting from ESPN to less watched Fox and CBS networks which gave BSU less exposure (BSU still maintained high viewership despite that but their national relevance was slightly dampened), and a series of bad athletic directors who did not market or advance the program and facility after my Uncle was fired by Kustra who didn’t like living in my uncles shadow. It wasn’t till Jeremiah Dickey was hired that BSU finally got an AD back who was filled with the same passion and dive as my uncle. BSU’s future is bright because of the work of JD and we would be in a very different place right now, maybe even P4, if he had taken over right after my uncle but Kustra made sure my uncle was followed by a series of ADs who would not outshine him. Kustra is the single worst thing to ever happen to BSU.
Boise State's main reason to join the MWC was because the conference featured 3 nationally ranked football programs: Utah, BYU, and TCU. When Boise State spent the first decade of this century dominating the WAC, the outside world accused Boise State of "not trying hard enough" to get a better schedule. Boise State desperately tried to get a better OOC schedule, but hardly anyone was willing to work with them. Boise State came up with a "Plan B," which was to become members of the MWC, and having Utah, BYU, and TCU on the schedule would have given Boise State a huge boost in their schedule. Those 3 teams finished the 2008 and 2009 seasons in the final polls, as well as Boise State. When Boise State was invited by the MWC in June of 2010, it looked like they were getting the upgrade that they had been looking for. The hard work that Boise State put in over the previous few years appeared to be paying off. Then, literally less than a week later, Utah gets invited by the Pac-10. BYU follows that up by bailing from the MWC out of jealousy, and later on that summer, TCU gets invited by the Big East, and later the Big 12. After all the work that Boise State had put in to get into a better situation, the football program was thrown right back into square one, as all the other original MWC teams had put in no effort to upgrade their programs at that point. I think this was when Chris Petersen started to realize that he was not going to be able to achieve much more than what he had already done. He wasn't going to be able to achieve much more by competing in what has today amounted into a "WAC 2.0" and would have still had to deal with the same old downplaying. So, he left, and some of the recruits that agreed to play at Boise State followed him to Washington.
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Actually you're missing a very important point. Thanks to politicians, we no longer have collegiate sports. It's just another level of pro sports. And when it comes to expansion, invites, who's in and who's out, it's just about money. What do you bring to the table IN TERMS OF VALUE, MONEY. It's why if the ACC implodes, schools like Wake Forrest and NC State will find themselves in the Boise situation. Yes SMU will be back OUTSIDE the big time without doubt. The ONLY way you are going to be considered now for top level is if woke politicians force all TV revenues to be put in a pot and handed out on some basis of game attendance or something similar. It would have saved the Pac 12, it will save the ACC. But still for the G5 programs, still on your own. Boise State had it's moments in the limelight a while ago, but I think it's over. Realignment will make it difficult to schedule non-conference games. A super league of the Big Ten and SEC will mean mean playing each other like an NFL schedule.
We all feel for Boise, but in their day their acaademics screwed them. For BSU they peaked 10 years too soon.
Academics should not matter for athletic association.
Remnant conference: Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, USF, Tulane, SMU, SDSU, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State.
That would be a pretty sad conference, if you are building a new conference over best of the G5 and leftovers then I suggest this model: x.com/broncobleymaier/status/1777390300215816519?s=46&t=tL20kTdZ_UFVEYIJp6TZhw
Would you rather compete for Mountain West Championships each year or go to the Big-12 and get more money yes, but finish in the middle of the pack each year? Let’s be honest as much as I love Boise State if we were in the Big-12 we would not win the conference in football and the odds would be even greater we would never the conference in basketball. I just think it’s better to be a big fish in a small pond than a little fish in a vast ocean. I like being at or near the top in our conference every year. We need to be careful what we ask for, because if we finish in the middle of the pack every year our attractiveness will diminish. That’s just the way fans are, because the interest level is usually directly proportional to the success of the school by winning. That is the main reason we have such great support. If we lost as much as San Jose does our stadium would be empty. If we get invited to a bigger conference, I know that the recruiting gets better, but it would make it much tougher to win. We don’t always dominate with conference championships every year and we’re in the Mountain West. Just a thought that all of us fans better be careful what we ask for. Remember our winning % against power 5’s (4’s) had not been stellar since the days of Kellen Moore. Just some food for thought. 😊
BSU viewership and fan attendance still stays strong with mediocre or bad seasons, the last 4 years are a testament to that. Plus I absolutely believe that in a Power 5 conference BSU’s recruiting potential would be unmatched. We would be one of the top 10 teams in college football right up there with Georgia, Bam, Clemson, Ohio State, etc. That is why they don’t want to let us in, deep down they recognize our potential and they fear what we could do with the brand that we have now if elevated to a P5. Also if TCU can win the conference so can we
No question BSU would struggle in the early years joining the B12, but with more money, and better recruiting, they would build to a point where they could compete.
@billl1127 I also think BSU would be more competitive earlier on than people think based on their typical performance vs top teams (last few years aside).
Boise State is a good team and the blue grass does create added interest, but academics, history, & rivalries do matter. Academics & research can bring in billions of dollars.
Billions of dollars towards academics, not athletics. Athletics is the only thing that matters for athletic conference alignment. Who cares what academic institution the stadium is planted in if the the team is consistently winning and people are tuning in to watch. If academics are what truly mattered the IVY league, not the SEC would be the top conference in college football
I especially disagree about USF. I remember back when we were in the Big East with them and they had huge support and sold out their NFL stadium many times. It’s fallen off after they went G5, but they would be back in business with that P4 label
@brandonh5360 in their best season in 2007 they averaged just over 50,000 fans per game which is right at 70% of their stadium capacity and only about 2% of the city population at the time. USF has never and will never compete with the NFL presence in Tampa and at this point with the rate of growth of the Florida P4 programs and USF’s irrelevance over the last decade plus they are too far behind to gain back that ground to compete with them. Only way they could is like I said if they got accepted and won at a high level quickly and consistently which is a massive gamble and extremely unlikely given the current state of the program and the increased level of competition. This also works off the adulation that ACC is still an elite highlight competitive P4 conference that will drive increased viewership and interest in USF which by the time they get around to adding USF they may not be.
@@BroncoBleymaier they’ve had multiple double digit win seasons since 2007 though. And they averaged 50k fans and aren’t good enough, but a school like Boise (who averages 34k) is? It just doesn’t make sense man. Also, they hit almost 80% capacity on average during that 2007 season, and sold out the games I went to when we played them. I think you’re under valuing what they are. They only lost support because they went G5 playing Tulsa and Temple. It would change with a P4 conference. You’ve heard how they’re a sleeping giant
@brandonh5360 they they had 2 and not just since 2008, in their entire school history, 2 seasons of 10 wins or more. If you support drops as soon as your opponent level drops it shows they weren’t there for you, they were there for your opponent. The stadium #s aren’t important the percentage of capacity is because they shows level of support and buy in of the community compared to the size of the city area. That buy in reflects actually community interest in your program and also level of local support than can convert new incoming people to your team. BSU has a 99% community buy in. USF at their very peak when they were P5, Top 25 and had a shot at the conference title had less than 75%. USF recognizes this and that is why their new on campus stadium will be smaller than Boise’s and less than half the size of their current stadium which they may struggle even more to fill now that they are losing the casual Tampa window shopping fans who can’t just walk right into the stadium anymore. What matters is tv viewership and can you draw the eyes of those in your area and nationally or is your opponent doing that. People in Tampa aren’t just not watching college football on Saturdays, they just aren’t watching USF. How much you draw when you are playing G5s, when you are the biggest or at least equally large name on the stage, shows your intrinsic viewership draw potential and playing G5s USF drew less than 145,000 fans per game😬.
@@BroncoBleymaier you’re saying capacity matters more than numbers? That’s delusional. An FCS school getting 100% capacity at 18k attendance is not better than 75% of an NFL stadium…plus USF started 25 years ago so saying “in their entire history” doesn’t mean much. And their new stadium will hold 35k so they’re about to hit 100% capacity in that scenario. It’s honestly backed up by facts that USF and SDSU are better adds than Boise or Wyoming. I’m sorry that you don’t like it.
@brandonh5360 context and circumstances are key to understanding the facts. 70% was their max at the very height of their popularity in a city with a population at the time or 2.5+ million and they could only sell 70% of their stadium? And then the instance that they stopped playing big teams their support completely plummeted? If you are looking to add a team with no history of on field success, no history of consistent strong tv viewership, and little to no brand awareness outside of their local area simply because they are in a large metro area you are going to want assurance that they can actually carry that metro area. USF may carry more of Tampa when in a P4 but not to such an extent or percentage that it makes them a more valuable add than a competitive on field team with a national brand like BSU who is already putting up routine top tv numbers as a G5 and that had the guaranteed potential to increase those numbers substantially when aligned within the buoying effect of the P4. Also, you adding Wyoming to this conversation shows your ignorance on this subject matter and what really determines potential team value.
Boise for starters needs to try get BYU to play Boise annually. Could Boise go independent like BYU for years? Could Boise grow their brand again as an independent? Would ESPN give Boise the same TV media deal that they did for BYU? MWC’s TV deal is almost half of the AAC. Could Boise get at least what the AAC gets as an independent?
I think the path to independence has closed with the changing nature of college football
Watched twice before commenting, and while I wish I agreed, I cannot. I want to agree as a lifelong Boise State fan. I want to agree as someone who regularly laments the injustice of Boise State being left behind despite the Petersen Era’s success. However, I cannot agree because the argument seems to have two holes.
The first whole in the argument is that though you do a good job of showing untapped potential of big populations, you do not explain where Boise State fans are going to come from. USF, UNLV, and SDSU cannot tap their market currently; I grant it. However, if any of them do actually perform, then there’s no struggle to see where they will come from. If USF ever gets good, then the Tampa market is immediately available. The same goes with UNLV and SDSU. Boise State actually succeeded. We all watched and cheered. Boise State won Idaho, Montana, Eastern Wa., and Easter Oregon, and you’re right, they’ve tapped their market. Where are the additional fans to come from? Big cities far away? Why didn’t they become fans after 3 Fiesta Bowl victories? There’s no roots there. While people like me, who moved from Idaho, still watch BSU there aren’t many people coming from Idaho because Idaho has few people. The problem, in short, is Boise State already won, but didn’t grow up to P5 viewership levels. The “national brand” of Boise State got the biggest possible boost, but still is very small compared to Utah, BYU, and TCU three former MWC teams that have enough population to support growth with performance.
The second problem is your new model of growth is without a model for success. Which team in a small city grew to a P5 level? Boise State? Our viewership doesn’t rival P5 programs. Our success made us a big P5 market, but, not P5. Wisconsin at Minnesota, an irrelevant Big 10 game pulled 1.23 million, Miami at BC 1.43 million, Kentucky v Louisville 1.57 million. Heck, even UTSA v. Tulane pulled 1.72 million. To grow from 297k average requires evidence beyond tapping a small market, which is why the people who project income don’t expect Boise State to be a cash cow.
I don’t think stubbornness is the best explanation for snubbing our beloved Broncos. Rather, I think the inability to pinpoint a population to win over is relevant, because even with Boise State’s success, we don’t pull as well as low level Big 10 or ACC games.
Tv viewership source:
www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
I appreciate your detailed response and thorough consideration of my argument.
In response to your first point, the viewers will come from all of America. That is the point. National brands don’t need regional viewership. Look at Alabama, consistently the most watched team in the country yet the Tuscaloosa Metro has less than 300,000 people, a third the size of Boise. Boise State isn’t consistently netting the largest viewership in the G5 from just the surrounding states, they are pulling viewers from all over the country who are drawn in by their history, their play style and The Blue. Boise’s brand still has untapped potential. With what BSU is doing at the G5 level, imagine what they could do if elevated to the P5? BSU would be Alabama within 5-10 years.
In regards to your second point, those other teams usually have a ranked opponent, a strong tv time slot, a prime network, and other P5 fans (with the exception of Tulane vs UTSA) watching because the game results impact them. I addressed this when I said that P5 circumstances lift all parties. The circumstances not the intrinsic value of the teams boosts the viewership. I also addressed the point of SDSU, USF, and UNLV winning their masters by winning. First off, that is a massive gamble. None of those programs have shown the ability to constantly recruit and compete at the G5 level, how is that going to change when facing much harder competition at the P5 level? You have to hope and pray if you add those teams they succeed quickly and maintain that success to even have a hope of gaining those markets. However, unless they quickly build themselves into playoff caliber teams they still are unlikely to capture those markets because of the competition with the NFL teams, existing nearby P5s and in the case of Vegas the general entertainment industry. There are a reasons those markets are untapped for college athletics so far and it’s because they are not college towns. Teams like UCLA and USC got in on the ground floor over a hundred years ago before those cities are where they are now. If they were trying to establish themselves as brand new P5 teams today they very likely would be unable to attract a significant portion of the market.
BSU will always have a recruiting and marketing edge because of The Blue. BSU coaches noticed immediately upon installation of The Blue that they could recruit players that before wouldn’t even return their calls. BSU’s entire success is built on The Blue in the caliber of players and coaches it has attracted. Take the power of The Blue and put it in a P5 combined with BSU’s history of success and general national interest in the program and BSU would be nearly impossible to compete with. That is the main reasons the elites deep down don’t want to change their perspective. They are absolutely terrified of what BSU could do and thus would rather discount them than acknowledge their full value and potential.
@@BroncoBleymaier Thank you for taking the time to engage. I always love the opportunity for a good spirited discussion.
I know your point is that Boise State will convert fans nationwide, like--I imagine--Notre Dame.
I seemed to have 4 points in the first paragraph in response to the national market idea.
1: the national growth is open to every successful school. SDSU, UNLV, USF, and other all could develop the national brand Boise State could develop, but schools that have a large regional population have an additional benefit of an obvious and immediate fan base, and Boise State doesn't.
2: Boise State has had more success than anyone could ever reasonably hope for, but I don't think we developed a national brand. I think we can see that in three ways: 1) our viewing numbers are not large in comparison with the teams we want to be our peers. The above numbers show we are 1/3 of bad p5 teams. If we cannot out perform bottom dwellers in the P5 in rating, then we cannot justly claim to have a national market nor reasonably expect an invite. BYU, Utah, and TCU all justified their invitations with the attention they garnered. We did once under Pete, but no longer do. 2) Anecdotally, I have been a proud Boise State fan all of my life. I've lived in Eastern Washington, South Central Texas, and Michigan int he past 5 years. I commute back and forth between these places and drive whenever I can because I dislike airports, airlines, and flying. This means, of course, I have plenty of experience in those areas and the interstate areas connecting them, getting gas, eating, staying in hotels, etc. The only places I ever see people wearing Boise State gear are: Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Utah (but only the areas on the Idaho border. I have literally never seen any BSU gear worn in Texas, and I think I may have seen one had in the Detroit airport. This evidence is anecdotal, but if you want to convince me of a large national brand against my own experience and senses then there needs to be proof, especially when our number are small enough to be only Southern and Northern Idaho and Easter Wa and Oregon. The claim that we grew and sustained fan participation across the nation isn't obvious and needs evidence to be believed.
3). Boise State's lack of a national brand is highlighted by actual national brands. You cannot throw a rock in Texas, Michigan or Washington without seeing a ND hat. Nor can you say there isn't a heavy Alabama presence. BYU, likewise, is everywhere, but only one Bronco is regularly spotted (and that's me).
4). Because of Idaho's small population the social crisis of atomization (the destruction of connected and rooted networks of people and families) does not benefit Boise. Millions of Claifornians moving brings USC a presence everywhere, but there simply aren't enough Idahoans to do that.
So, regarding the idea that Boise State has a national brand found in your first paragraph, I know your point is that Boise would grow a national brand. However, the ability to do is shared among all potential performers, and Boise State, who has been an actualized performer, appears to have failed to actually establish a sizable national brand.
You also say people like watching Boise State because of their play stle, the Blue, and (though unstated) their reputation as gian killers. They were, at one time. However, under Harsin and Avalos Boise State football has fallen significantly in quality and watch ability. They no longer even look like the teams that beat Va. Tech, Georgia, and Oklahoma. They haven't won a major non-conference game in a long time, and regularly lose on the Blue to both conference and non-conference opponents. As a lifelong fan it pains me to say this, but I think the under-performance of Harsin and Avalos teams destroyed the brand that once was so promising.
To your response to my second point, P5 circumstances do, in some ways benefit those teams, but if we want to be a P5 team, we have to match their numbers in actuality, and we simply do not.
To the additional point about big market teams being a gamble in your second paragraph, your first point actually dismisses it. As you say, P5 money raises all tides. Those Universities are one AD and one coach away from success, and their potential fans are huge. Nobody cares about SDSU now, but if they actually start winning, with the Chargers gone and the Padres being out of season they are the only game in San Diego and could easily draw fans from LA if they were competitive nationally. That's the advantage of the population. For UNLV the Golden Nights and Raiders are already destination attractions, UNLV could not only tap the local area, but build fans who are there to gamble, drink, and do other things anyway. That is much more obvious than the asserted but unsupported claim of a national market for Boise State in 2024. It is a gamble, but I think it's less of one than adding a team that already succeeded and failed to capture sufficient viewers to justify their membership, as much as it hurts me to say that about Boise State.
I don't think Boise State's success is perpetual or guaranteed. In fact, I think that the draw of BSU and the Blue has been undermined by mediocre to bad football played on it since Coach Pete left.
I agree Boise State had great potential, but I think that potential has been drastically undermined by bad performances and a lack of football competitiveness. We never recovered from losing Coach Pete, and our brand has slowly decayed over the decade.
@ezekielloseke5514 National growth is not open to all teams. Nobody cares about Minnesota, Rutgers Louisville, or Oregon State outside of fans in those states and associated work their conference. National brands are only available to either the elite teams in college football (the consistent Playoff contenders) or those with highly unique factors like BSU or the extremely religious schools like BYU, ND, and LU. All teams like SDSU and USF can ever hope for with any reasonability of control or probability potentially is regional brand success, not national prominence. Although I would argue as previously stated that their regional brand success is severely limited as well.
BSU’s viewership doesn’t compete with the P5 teams you mentioned because they aren’t P5. Those teams draw in viewership by being in the P5, BSU would do that as well but add its own interdict viewership value which would far exceed what any of those teams can accomplish. No G5 team can compete for viewership with the P5 in general, especially a west coast G5, because of how the system is set up so you have to compare to what the rest of the G5 is doing and what BSU is doing in consistent tv viewership far out shines any G5 program, that shows intrinsic value. People tuning in to watch BSU just because they are BSU, that doesn’t happen for 90%+ of G5 teams and it doesn’t happen for the teams I listed in the video. Add that to P5 circumstantial value and the ceiling is unlimited.
BSU’s national brand has taken a slight hit with the last few years in terms of being considered a contender but the fact that they are still a nationally discussed team with continuing strong viewership even with relatively poor on field performance shows the strength of their national brand. National brand isn’t demonstrated in support, it is demonstrated in awareness. You go anyway in the country and talk about G5 teams outside of that teams state people probably won’t have any idea who they are. If sports stores are going to carry G5 merchandise outside of the local schools it will be BSU. If you ask people for an opinion on BSU anywhere in the country they will have one, either positive or negative but they will have one. People don’t have opinions about UNLV and USF, they don’t care about them and aren’t nationals aware of them. People are only aware or SDSU because of their failed attempt to join the PAC12.
BSU is always just one solid coaching move or impact player away from a 10+ win season because their foundation is consistently stronger than any other G5 program due to the recruitment potential of The Blue. I said it over and over again last year, this BSU team is this good to play this badly. Only bad coaching kept BSU from being a contender for the NY6 last season. The future is bright for BSU and will always be bright for BSU as long as they have the Blue turf and a shot at being part of the system (which the new CFP expansion gives them).
I live in Southern Calif and did not become a Boise State fan until 2017. I attend at least 3-4 games either home or away a season. Fans aren't all home grown.
@@billl1127 noted Bill. I just don’t think there are enough folks willing to do it to make Big Blue viable. I don’t really like pointing it out, because I do think BSU earned it’s way into the big conferences, but I think our window is closed, and I think the people controlling college football know how to make money because they make A LOT.
The problem will never be fixed until the fans of group of 5 teams, Big 12 and ACC stop watching a game that involves the Big 10 and SEC, but until then nothing will change.
The Big 10 and SEC didn’t get where they are by us in the best academics. That was the PAC 12 and they died. They didn’t get where they are by having the best proximity to tv markets. The ACC has as good a claim as the Big 10 to those and they look like they are about to get raided. The SEC and Big 10 got to where they are by producing the most elite football teams in the country, many of them from small or near non-existent media markets. If the other conferences would focus on building football success first they could compete but safely their mindset is too far rooted in backwards and outdated thinking
Also Houston and UCF are justified being in a power 4 . UCF has equaled or done better than Boise St and has largest alumni base in Florida. Houston has also won new yrs games as Boise and 4th soon to be 3rd largest city in usa. Tv market in Houston is huge and one of the top sports recruiting areas in the country Houston also has second most fortune 500 companies in country behind New York City and that equals a whole bunch of corporate money as Well.
UCF deserves it equally to Boise, not mad about them. Houston however does not, they deserve it over team mentioned in this video but not over Boise. They have not matched their same level of success or brand or having anything near their tv viewership potential
Boise state is definitely being left out of the fun. Why couldn't they be in the big 12 is a good point.
💯
You are incorrect about San Diego county population. It's 3.4 million in San diego County. What part of San Diego did u go to??? I see SDSU stuff everywhere when I'm in town from Houston. Also you can't add LA market to San Diego . I was at the final four in Houston. SDSU had the most fans of any team there. You also fail to realize u are comparing Sand Diego to Boise that's comparing apples to oranges.
I said SDSU’s population was just north of 3 million and a population number of 3.5 million (their actual number is 3.45 million so round up is especially with population trends) to get their percentage of viewership as a part of the San Diego Metro.
I did not add the LA Market to SD, I don’t know where you are getting that. I just said that teams in LA are close enough to be a bigger draw than SDSU which is reflected in their viewership and stadium attendance.
Congrats on your final 4 attendance vs Houston. Your final vs UCONN a year ago was still the least watched in finals history. Besides, basketball metrics are different and were only used as an additional example of overall comparative low draw. Conference expansion is based on football.
Comparing Boise to SD you are right, SD is a far larger and established city. They should blow a team on the same level in Boise’s viewership out of the water but they don’t because SDSU can not deliver the SD market. Congrats on more of your fans wearing school gear. You would remind them to attend and watch your games
Also there is alot of transplants in San Diego from other parts of the country and world. Boise only thing you all have to root for up there is Boise St athletics. You come off like you are doing nothing but whining basically. San Diego state has had best basketball program on the west coast for over a decade now and football has been consistent. In the long run tv markets are what makes money and the Boise TV market is very weak and SDSU academics is much higher than Boise St.
You just restated and proved my point
😂😂😂😂 Thank you 😁
Also basketball doesn’t matter for conference realignment if your football team isn’t strong and pulling in large support and SDSU’s has been consistent yes, consistently a mediocre or worse team besides a few flash in the pan seasons.
Also academics should have nothing to do with conference realignment and focusing on that is what killed the PAC12.
It’s all about the money. The big boys know what schools and how many will make them the most money. It’s not good, I’m pretty sure BSU is putting a ton of effort to make them attractive but it’s not about football
Well that’s my point, I don’t think they make more money with their current mindset. I think BSU would make them more money than any G5 expansion team added so far or looked at for expansion
"SDSU is not the biggest brand in town." Their fans dont care. Did you see them fill up Houston?
I see what you are doing here. But compare these attendance stats to USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford in football and you will see similar stats.
USC averaged 60,000+ per game last year. UCLA averaged 40,000+. Cal, even garbage Cal, averaged over 38,000+. How does that in anyway compare to SDSU’s less than 25,000 fans per game?
@@BroncoBleymaierinteresting comment from an SDSU fan. He's wrong lol. However, SDSU and Boise have been pretty even in football over the years (at least head to head) and SDSU deserves to be a P4 team in basketball (not sure about football).
On the flip side, Boise deserves to be a P4 team in football.
They have in no way been head to head. BSU has had a few bad years due to one coach and SDSU had a few flash in the pan seasons due to two specific players.
@@BroncoBleymaier Boise State 5 wins to SDSU 4 wins. That's pretty darn close lol.
you do realize that if USF was in a power conference they’d be bringing many more views bc they’re playing big brand schools right, your argument is very biased/cope/uninformed based on
That would be the same argument for any G5 team. If New Mexico State was in a P4 they would bring in more views because of the opponents they were playing. That doesn’t mean they deserve to be in a P4 conference or bring any intrinsic value in and of themselves. Take BSU’s current viewership and put it in a P4 setting and the potential output is so far and above USF it’s not even on the same plane of comparison.
Lmao, USF was in a power conference before the Big East imploded. They had a 9 year headstart on UCF and got passed
@brett3140 💯
buddy don’t sit there and act like boise is going to fill an entire nfl stadium of fans, your entitled/biased takes are insane
When did I ever say that? They don’t have the local population for that. They will however our perform in viewership 90%+ of the P4 on tv viewership if given the chance at P4 and that is what matters
If this is correct then the teams who 'deserve it's should form a league and prove their value and appeal. It is a ln opportunity!
If they left outs don't make it happen they can't blame others for doubting it makes sense.
No, pushing further outside the system and the source of revenue generation (namely the tv networks and CFP) is not how you prove value. This comment makes 0 sense. Devoid from even the the opportunity to compete for the highest level of success in college football their viewership would decrease even if their intrinsic value was high. It’s the Reaves’s principle of P4 circumstances raising the viewer metrics of intrinsically low level teams. These teams like BSU not only deserve the opportunity to compete at the highest level but also actually would bring in the most revenue for the conferences and tv deals they were part of.
@@BroncoBleymaier who said anything about any of that? Start your own league with a bunch of the left out high achievers get ratings and get rich. It's not like nobody would put you on TV and you could structure a big dollar contract that only paid if you got big ratings . You have to bet on yourself before others will bet on you.
Easy cause the problem is not like nobody cares enough to watch. Problem solved.
@@BroncoBleymaier nobody said anything about outside the system but you.
I am saying the leftovers get together within the system. Someone will put them on tv and make a deal with the networks that is a bet on themselves. Big ratings and we get a big payday, small ratings and we get nothing.
If they really believe they'll get the ratings they get rich and prove their point. If they're not willing to bet on themselves, why would anybody else bet on them??
"It's not American"
Bro. This country is ruled by money for money 😂
You do make some good arguments otherwise. Still, their idea is to take a UNLV, pump it full of money, get on field success, and then translate that into a massive Vegas audience. I personally think that will work for a lot of these teams. Maybe not a USF, but probably for UNLV and even SDSU. We live in a consumer culture and whatever is pushed in the mainstream by big money will become popular
Yes, which is a good thing. Pure capitalism is the purest and fairest form of economics that builds off of the natural order of the universe. However there is not what is happening here. This is closer to feudalism. Teams aren’t being given opportunities to rise by the market based on their hard work and success and financial potential from that because they are being artificially restrained by a semi-feudalist system that prioritizes blood lines and city size over actual marketable factors like success and brand
@loganfranklin3353 are they going to pump in more money than every other P4 team? Are they going to market better than the Raiders or Circ Du Sole? Are they going to fund their program artificially for 4-5+ years until hopefully UNLV has enough sustained elite level success to finally have a chance of converting fans and entertainment seekers not raised in the culture or who graduated from UNLV? Even then there is no guarantee because UNLV still has to win and without the culture of winning in place it’s hard to establish artificially. If UNLV can’t compete with other G5 teams for viewership what makes you think they can compete with P4 programs? Why not take a team that already is doing more than any other G5 school with a brand that is better than 90% of the P4 and give them the money and opportunity to fully capitalize on that brand market potential and actually make the sport more fun to watch?
@@BroncoBleymaierkeep to football analysis bub 😂. Nature is survival of the fittest and domination of the strongest. All that you're saying is made up bullshit.
That said, you make some good points about why BSU deserves P5 status. go Broncos
@loganfranklin3353 yes, that is what capitalism is however that is not what we are seeing in the world of college football. Lesser weaker teams like USF and UNLV are being propped up by external factors vs natural evolution taking its place and teams like Boise State rising to their rightful place as one of the top programs in the country. Either way though appreciate the comments and the kind words in regards to points made in the video.😁💙
Stop your whining!!! I get it I agree Boise deserves to be in a p4 conf,but stop dogging on other schools it makes you look like you are doing nothing but hating and crying.
I feel you are projecting your own feelings and emotions onto this. My argument is based on facts and logic. It’s not personal, it’s just facts. Also the reason Boise is passed up is the same misguided mindset that elevates these undeserving teams. BSU has been making the case for its inclusion in expansion for 2 decades and gotten nowhere. The only way to open a way for Boise to reach the P4 is to tear down the backwards system that had prevented its rise and that unfortunately means bringing down the undeserving teams propped up by that system to their actually deserved place.
Also, I’m all here for the USF hate. Boise state and maybe Tulane or Memphis should be first for consideration
It’s not necessarily hate. I honestly have no feelings towards USF myself. They aren’t a rival of ours and I have no association with them. However it’s their arrogance and assumption of worth based purely on their circumstances despite not earning any of it or putting anything down on the field of value. The arrogance and false superiority in the face of facts just because the system bends their way really irks me
@@BroncoBleymaier I have a question for you. What your thoughts on Rutgers being in the Big Ten despite having no chance of winning the conference?
@@tylernelson3343 They made the mistake Conference USA made in falsely thinking that a school located in a city but not much following was a smart move. It's not. UTSA will never be big time. Rice was small potatoes even in the old SWC. The only exception I've seen in years is TCU which I never imagined would be considered a "Power" school. Yet the money rolled in and there you are. In the Old SWC, TCU was just a team you looked at future schedules and said "well there's one win". Arkansas beat TCU 31 straight seasons.
@tylernelson3343 one of the biggest mistakes the Big 10 ever made and if they could do it over again I think they wouldn’t bring them in.
@tylernelson3343 I have heard a lot of Big 10 focused analysts refer to them as dead weight they wish they could cut off
Look at this guy crapping on other G5s when his school is literally a G5 lmao 😅
Did you actually watch the video? This has nothing to do with value based on G5 status, this is about value based on brand and on field success and the backwards system that does not hold that value in the correct light.
@@BroncoBleymaier I watched the video and I get your points but unfortunately that's not what this is about. Your title is also misreading.
@@TulaneTimright there with you brother