He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion
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- Опубликовано: 4 авг 2020
- Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 - and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.
In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.
So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, you’ll have to watch the video.
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I don’t wanna brag but I’ve predicted North Korean elections in the past and I have been right EVERY time.
Lmao
Underrated comment
I feel like Putin’s gonna win the next one in Russia. He’s just so popular and good at his job, no other reason.
Omg, so have I
i love your username lmao
I remember republicans back in 2016 said this guy was a genius when he called it for Trump was right but when he called it for Biden this year they said he was a clown but he ended up being right again lmao
Thank you for your service, Cap’n
People assume that because he's a Democrat that his prediction system is biased and they don't realize that his predictions aren't based on his personal opinion but based on factual circumstances, otherwise he wouldn't be this successful at being correct.
@@Prolificx yeah
@@Prolificx but he literally chose trump and right when he switches, they say it's because he's a Democrat. They don't know anything lol
@@poopoogamer1232 Most humans prefer to make assumptions than to ask questions, that's what is wrong with the world.
Bro the trump suppoter with the top comment predicting trump deleted it 💀
It just shows how insecure Trump supporters really are.
@@thehalloweenheavymetalmusicwar how is that insecurity at all
@@jagshe1829 because it shows just how unsure they are of their supposedly God given vision predicting their Donald Trump win by a landslide, in which did not happen. This proving this God supposedly given vision as fictional. Not factual and scientifically proven like historian Allan Lichtman's was, which Allan Lichtman has predicted all presidential elections without insecurities, as he never changed his predictions at all when they seemed unlikely and still he was always right.
@@jagshe1829 So yes this shows Science will always win over fiction.
@@thehalloweenheavymetalmusicwar How were they unsure if they only just deleted the comment after Biden won?
No matter how your views lean, you've gotta admit: This guy's good.
@Maiahi a lot of conservatives don’t like dems lol
@Maiahi of course but he said he was democrat and some republicans just automatically assume democrats are lying to them
@Maiahi Both Democrats and Republicans have a narrow viewpoint of reality for the most part. Factual truth is no longer considered factual when it's coming from the opposite side. This guy can be proven right 100 more times and the moment he predicts a candidate they don't like they'll have something negative to say lol.
@@clintonbaird5465 yeah and a lot of Dems don't like conservatives too.
@@FPVFM for sure it’s a big problem. Both sides of the media distort and twist narratives to make people afraid and hate each other
Aged like fine wine.
Why wouldn’t it
What? Biden did win , so he was right 🤷♂️
@@hilal_younus Aged like fine wine. It means it didn’t age at all because wine doesn’t age like milk
he even predicted that that Biden will not win by a landslide he got 7 keys
indeed, here for my daily dose of MAGA tears
This was 3 months ago clip. And he predict Trump will lose. This is not just one election, he predicted over 3 decades.
Dam, he is good.
He is time traveler
He even predicted how close it would be. This guys systems amazing
Trump ain’t backing down tho
@@rhema-5804 Not sure what this means lol. He'll complain, file his lawsuits but, on Jan. 21st he needs to go back to Russia I mean New York.
RUclips needs a laughing emoji.
I love how republicans in 2016 said this guy was a genius yet when he said Biden would win they called him biased, stupid and a clown. Shows how they only believe what they want to hear
Another way to describe news biased.
@Gonzo York pfp checks out
Whydu comment the same thing twice
yep
@Tej how and why?
As soon as Allan lichtman said Biden would win, my confidence that joe Biden would win skyrocketed and he was right
Orange Slav it was over for trump when the guaranteed loss rule predicted that trump would lose this rule never failed to predict a president ever for a lot of decades that’s why they call it the guaranteed loss rule
Same
I hope he calls it for Biden soon
@cheshireket3132 You should google the 13 keys tracker. You can look at comments he's made so far on the keys for 2024, as well as fill in your own based on what you've seen in relation to the keys. So far, I it's looking good for Biden.
@@cheshireket3132
As of now he leaning towards biden victory
Based on my mathematical knowledge, I predict this guy has a 50% chance of being correct.
A lot has happenes in the past 3 months too so a lot could have changed
90% of statistics are fake
@@MuhammadAli-fx8lz theres a 90% chance that you're wrong then
@@feelsbaronman8044 exactly
Do you have a magic predicting coin? Neat! I have heard of this coin.
I'll save you 7 minutes. He predicts Biden.
thanks
TX bro I no. A. Solid. One
Thank you
In direct contradiction to Helmut Norpoth with his Primary Model
Thank you
I watched this before and after the election
The comments before: 🔴🔴🔴🔴
The comments after: 🔵🔵🔵🔵
Yep
It's good to see that far right trolls have at least left The NYT.
@@renegade9777 I don't think they're trolls... which makes it sadder, because that means they fully believe everything they say.
@@Tom_Cruise_Missile And to think they were once children with hopes and dreams, but now they are just hissing like cornered rats. Truly sad to watch.
@@hostomelhorsehoarder ikr
I will come back to this video after the elections.
Edit: Wow, he was right. Biden won.
Yep. I will when Trump wins.
@@stephenbryant5251 So you won't when Trump loses?
Developer Luke I won’t, cause Trump won’t lose.
Trumps gonna win
Me either
I started to doubt this guy on election day. But now, I'm never doubting him again!
Why would you doubt the legend !😭
I had the same feeling in 2016. Though Allan could not be right. 2016 proved every predictor wrong, except him. I trusted him in 2020 and will trust again in 2024!
@@saul9832 Due to the fact Trump was beating biden in battle ground States until mail in ballots arived
Even better he predicted the Senate would flip also which is did.
He’ll get it wrong one day. There’s no real way of being 100% proof.
Lichtman was right. His Keys are right. I trust him. Let’s see how he dose in 2024 :)
#kanye2024
@@sanmarino8605 hopefully that was a joke cause Kanye would just be bad as president
@@bboyplayz5249 no bro kanye would totally be a great president, *insert troll face emoji here*
@@sanmarino8605 true he would *insert troll face emoji here*
@@sanmarino8605 Lol my friend in Idaho actually voted Kanye
This man is literally giving us spoilers for the plot of real life
I mean the US is the biggest reality show for everybody else and this guy is spoiling it.
America is so cringe it's just laughable to look at.
@@Cartmaniac true
And he was right.
Congratulations for Joe Biden
Eyyyyy
As a Christian I am embarrassed, the so called Christian prophets were saying Trump will win God told us, and they were all lying and here comes a historian doing calculations which happen to come to pass 😭
And yes Trump supporters saying he is wrong lol but they believe other professors who predicted 2016 only lol.
Yes
A moment of silence for trump supporters who saved this video thinking they'll come back after the election to type ( This didn't age well)😋😁😎
Haha
Ahahah
Just like them losers were screaming Trump 2020 Landslide 🤣😂🤣😂
Instead Biden Landslide 🤣😂🤣
@@MrRafagigapr Tf are you talking about. Biden has 51 percent and trump has 47 still😂😂
@@MrRafagigapr Georgia is certifying votes today, Pennsylvania will follow, at this point Biden doesnt even need Nevada to win
@@MrRafagigapr Keep lying to yourself, buddy.
Just in case someone says “it’s just luck”...the chances of getting all nine 50/50 chances (since 1984) correct is 0.2% or 1 in 512.
Neat.
He did get one slightly incorrect in the 2000 election. Still very impressive though. If you want to know who'll win an election, see what this man predicts haha.
@@potxtoe but to be fair the 2000 election was so close that it required the Supreme Court to choose a winner. No one could have seen that coming.
But he gets points for still predicting the popular vote winner.
Small correction: 1 in 512 is 0.2% and not 0.002%, because 1 in 1 is not 1% but 100%
@@1ich_mag_zuege ah yes you are correct
Can't believe it's already time for me to start thinking about 2024 😂
Predict that Biden will lose so that inflation dies down
Oh hi Alan
hey!@@owenmania9129
@@tomslawyer inflation has already been going down. at this rate will be nothing for Republicans to talk about it.
I can't wait. I'm already looking at the keys.
Once again, Dr.ALLEN has proved that he is the Nostradamus of US. election.Congrats Allen
yup that other professor helmut norpoth had trump at a 91% chance of winning lol
Plot twist: Marty McFly is real.
@Monster Paradise 🤖🇷🇺
@Monster Paradise Trump already lost in Michigan's court
@Monster Paradise lol I’m just messing with you bot 🤖
He's not psychic, he has analytical ability and made a thorough calculation throughout history of how things end up, and yes anyone that could engineer that is a genius
Volodia too;)
He is amazing :)
@The Underdog Music if you can be certain enough to publicly state your predictions and come under the judgement of millions the next time, then sure)
dude we know...
True
Am I the only one trying to find all those comments from Trump supporters saying they can’t wait till he’s wrong.
It's been 3 weeks now and they have yet to find any evidence. Trump has lost 35 out of 37 court cases. There only hope is that Trump doesn't go to jail and are able to run again in 2024
@@thienphucn1 ah finally a viet person who doest support trump. Xin chao bro.
nope
they're all deleted. seen plenty of them prior to biden winning
This comment section has over thirty thousand comments with a bunch long deleted and more being created recently. Good luck.
He also predicted that Trump will be impeached. He nails it every time. From now on, he’s my man
impeached means nothing
@@FAMEROB that’s not his point he is just saying he predicted it
@@windowsguy1828 im not denying his point
@@FAMEROB true I guess
and that he will go to jail :D keeps getting better
"The best way to predict the future is to choose it."
VOTE
between an orange lunatic and a senile girl sniffer... nah thanks LOL I'l just watch from the side, not having my name on either of those two.
Exactly everybody vote trump so biden doesn't get in what a disaster that will be
Indeed trump 2020
@@southfeller3399 because its the same as staying at home and not voting anyway? lol
@@southfeller3399 is there a gold party???
I really appreciate that he showed his methodology, so even if you disagree you can argue why.
Yes. And when a different assessment is applied to his keys, the result would be different. I disagree with his assessment on Trump not having major foreign accomplishments. His administration killed major terrorist leaders, Israel and arab countries are having peace agreements, there was the USMCA which was a major agreement between countries. Also the uncharismatic part, Trump is polarizing, he have great love and charisma among people who support him, he's hated by those who oppose him. Polarizing is not uncharismatic. Also, his rival also have a major scandal just before the election. So if his model is accurate, Trump should win.
@@almercpaul8523 read what “charismatic” means according to the keys model. The person must be charismatic ACROSS party lines. Not just liked by his own crowd.
@@Kknderbueno that wasn't said on the video. It only said "charismatic incumbent". Can you link the source of your claim?
@@almercpaul8523maybe the book that guy wrote
He got the key wrong about long term economy
Not even a pandemic stopped him from predicting , and he’s actually keeping his strike
It's not the pandemic per se. It's how Trump responded to the pandemic that hugely did him in.
@@alembess9129 I was referring to trumps disastrous response , but couldn’t specify it properly since English is my 2nd language :/
@@hilal_younus No probs. At least we're on the same page, am I right?
@@alembess9129 yep..
No no thats quite inaccurate. To be precise, the pandemic made him easier to predict, considering Trumps's response towards it are blunder
Trump 2016:"I love democracy"
Trump 2017-2021:"I am the senate"
Not yet.
@@ottovonbismarck1352 ?
@@Alex-noDrivemace windu: “not yet”
Trump 2023: "I'll be dictator on day one"
I'm curious what his next wild statement about his leadership will be.
@nf_100 I know it was likely meant to be a joke, but the fact that quoting him triggers you or anyone really should show how not funny that kind of joke is. Democracies are fragile and it's usually one authoritarian that changes things slowly. It's not like Trump hasn't threatened it, and it's not like he doesn't take out his vengeance online against his "enemies" already. In that way, he is far too much like the Emporer.
HE IS RIGHT, I CAME BACK TO THIS VIDEO JUST TO SAY THIS
Same
@N F oh screw you
@@B_Frank_Met when I saw their comment I was like how can something be stolen if it doesn’t belong to trump in the first place lol that is what democracy is about
I know this guy is honest when he said Biden is uncharismatic
What a load...
Now yes he used to be likeable but now he isnt -but all polls show he is liked double compared to hillary so thats why he is gonna win common folk like him which is fine - social media doesnt but people do and in 2016 trump had the same thing
@The Truth At least he's not gasping for breath like our tubby orange clown
The Truth I disagree that Bernie would guarantee the democrats a win. I think he’s too far let for a lot of democrats, especially older ones. There’s a reason he didn’t win the nomination.
@@beyonceluvr5178 Another reason is he didn't pursue the black vote and lost much of the South. Sanders lost states that Biden would probably loose anyway.
Everybody that said "this didn't age well" we saw you and we're making fun of you lmao
He was right about 2000 too! Had the SC not “stopped” the recount in Florida, Gore would have won that state.
…maybe…maybe not…who knows
what if this dude ran and he predicted he would win
Epic gamer moves
Thats not how it works
PoG
Predicted-
That's sound a little bit scary
His prediction proved accurate again 2020.
@Che Johnson yes I watched this a month ago!
Another 4 years
@@egsir For joe biden? because that would be nice
IKR OMG SKSKSK
He predicted Biden would win by a hair. Thats exactly what happened
Democratic supporters when they lost in 2016: Screaming, crying, complaining, etc
Republican supporters when they lost in 2020: *demonic screeching*
Oh how the tables have turned
I can’t wait till 2024 when Kanye West wins and everybody sings glory hallelujah so loudly that every window in America shatters.
Don't forget capitol raiding
@@ssik9460 kanye will unite us all 🤣🤣
@Arkhany There is a big difference in being upset over an election result and denying an election result, accusing the other side of fraud without any proof and storming the Capitol in order to stop the democratic process.
You look very stupid when you're trying to "both sides" this...
Demonic screeching, rioting, saying the results are fake and much more.
this aged well
He has balls of steel if he thinks he can predict 2020😂
Edit: Well I'll be damned😂
😂🤣❤👍🏆
Truth.
😂🍒
@@t80a7 you just started an emojivolution
Trump appeals to a lot more than a small slice of the country. He did win with the electoral vote in 2016 but had half the countries vote ..that's more than a small slice another bs campaign video for the democrats
At this point I think we can clearly say that whatever he says in 2024 will also happen. Forget about polls and numbers, this is the real and most trustworthy “poll”.
Exactly.
Well I’m sold to him, I came back to this video after hearing Biden won, and I’ll listen to him again in 2024.
@@sujiththomas7956 Actually, you can also get through your keys yourself.
True
Acturally, if you have seen his recent interview, he said that he might want to either review or retire his keys in the future because the influence of the college electorate (I.e. Gerrymandering and co) will interfere/overshadow sound governance, which are encompassed by the 13 keys themselves.
Think it is in FOX news, you can put his name together with "FOX", and there is a news article together with the 2-3 min video of the interview.
It might be the last time he will use his keys.
The trump supporters were acting like he only said this because he was biased but what weatherman would predict a sunny day just because he doesn’t like rain
Congratulations. Good call, Allan.
To quote a certain person
Daaaaaaaaaaang you got him there
Everyone before the election : ahaha what a fool ofc he will wrong..
Him after the election : THEY CALLED ME A MAD MAN..
I predicted he’ll be correct , I mean he done a ton of research and had a pretty good track record...
@@hilal_younus even at the time you commented this it was over like a month ago
@@munchingcherry8634 I know , I was just revisiting lol
He was wrong though
@@OrlandoMusic333 but biden won
So if he loses his prediction he’s not cool no more
K
Yea he was probably paid to make this video
@Jeffrey Ross many red and swing states aren’t counted yet. Don’t jinx it please.
This guy... He's literally stupid
@Jeffrey Ross everybody’s polls are different right now.
This goes to show how predictable Americans are, and how messed up the system is.
thats what you got out of this?
America and predictable are two words I would never think would end up in the same sentence
and he got the electoral college wins wrong so its not the system
I think this is the same for all democracy tho
People just want stability and prosperity, it should not be a surprise the election turned out this way
POV: you’re trying to look for a comment that doesn’t talk about how he was right
Voiceover: "Alan lickman is always right"
2020: "i've dissapointed a lot of people in my time"
😂😂😂
Not a fan of trump, but that's make sense.
@@nicholasmenolascina1450 I sure hope so man , I’m mean there was even a guy who said Jesus told him Trump would be president 5 years before he did and he was even interviewed by nbc I believe. He’s was told that in trumps election it would be two terms and the media at some point would have to agree with trump , and the changing of the media to be less biased was talked about by mike pence last night . So keep this election in your prayers everyone!
@@nicholasmenolascina1450 lol
NO PLEASE
Remember when trumpets were like tHeRes A FiRsT TImE fOr EvREyThInG, good times
I came back to this video hoping to find those comments but they deleted 😔
@N F yea but I mean if trunk didn’t down play the virus we would’ve been in a very different situation
@N F whoops 😅
@N F but trump was president and he called it a hoax, many times “he said it’ll just go away” other how come other nations got rid of COVID?
And this was the first time that Lichtman was wrong!
i came back to attack trump supporters who said cant wait too come back after a trump win. but they deleted their comments.
That kinda sucks
@@misterzeke7021 you should have won in 2000
@@analara9872 If it wasn't for the supreme court I probably would've won
@@misterzeke7021 how’s the climate, al?
@@analara9872 I was confused for a moment when I realized his username used to be AL Gore and not John Kennedy
Screw the polls! I’m listening to this guy!
plot twist: after 20 years, the people just started voting who he predicted
And, Trump has gotten some major foreign policy wins, like the middle east deals, and the nobel prize nominations 🤷♂️
@ commenting on this so I can come back after election day and see if you were right😆
@ Alright. I'll see...
@Laughing Gravy Best of luck to you, Gravy😁
@@wendiritola8577 The Real President
McDonalds
If trump wins. His credibility is gone forever.
@Truth118 there is no decency with Biden. The fact you think that shows how blind you are
@Fabius Maximus now i agree that biden is racist and not a good person and i take no pleasure in supporting him for president but if you genuinely believe that biden is way more racist than trump, you are severely misinformed.
He’s a liberal, interview reveals so. Oh well.
@@elizabrand3811 Find facts of Trump being racist. Not a spun narrative or misinformation, find hard evidence of him being an actual racist.
@@justacrewchief4561 Hmm yea very hard evidence watch till the end ruclips.net/video/4c5fuOPCeYw/видео.html
Also this ruclips.net/video/SHePglP28CM/видео.html
He had also said early in trump's term that trump would be impeached. He just missed the 2nd impeachment.
Who else is looking for a pro trump comment just to laugh at them
I'm trying to find a pro Trump comment on here, i guess MAGA nuts deleated them. LMFAO.
I'm looking for them but no luck so far
I haven't seen any yet: I guess they're slowly (and sadly) realizing that Trump blowing off COVID flushed his re-election bid down the toilet.
I found one , but he’s a bit tad illogical , he still thinks that Biden is meddling with election , Even though there is no widespread fraud , shame how trump still riles up his followers and falsely claim he won :( , what is happening to this democracy , however , 1 month later , he’ll be a trespasser :)
Sort by new you’re welcome
POV: your here after Biden won
Yes
Yup
Yes indeed!
@Kiwi Balls You are fed lies by Trump
@Kiwi Balls
www.snopes.com/fact-check/dominion-deleted-trump-votes/
Before you say that snopes is biased mediabiasfactcheck.com/snopes/
This will either age well or age badly. Only time will tell for sure.
Edit: this aged well
Edit 2: For now...
Well since the white house has had major success in foreign politics in the east, the point for it goes to Trump so still using this way of forecasting its a Trump victory actually..
@@MisoElEven Oh please.
DJT is the first president in my lifetime to NOT start a new war, police action or intervention
LET THAT SINK IN...
@@krisdaschwab912 What do you mean? It is one of the keys and economy is back on track so yeah I might be biased because I have a bet of 50€ that hes going to win...but I really think this is going to be a big victory. Looking at it logically, he didnt loose pretty much any voters he could have only gained..
@@andrewmichaelschaefferXIV I'd say Trump because the BLM riots are extremely unpopular and many liberals are furious over this.
This guy should predict Russian elections... shouldn't be too hard :)
Russia is still having elections? I thought Putin had been declared Supreme Czar already.
He should predict Elections in North Korea, that shouldnt be too hard.
Well if Putin dies…then it becomes harder.
If I ever place bets on who's gonna win the elections, I'm just gonna bet on whatever Allan predicts.
Little does this guy know, it’s 2020. Anything could happen.
He said FALSE on @ least three TRUE answers.
@@sandral.414 yes! So Trump has more like 8 keys.
No sir that was 2016
I KNEW TRUMP WAS GOING TO WIN when the cubs after 100 years won the championship
Yup
Yeah, washington could come back from the dead and suddenly become the 46th us President.
Don't believe, just go and vote.
#biden2020
serg he will only raise taxes on individuals who make more than $400,000. The majority of Americans make less than that amount.
@@stunna4hubert846 Communism 2020! Glory to CP USA!
@@taniacastillo3725 He has openly said that he is going to slash the Trump Tax Cuts which will result in everyone's taxes going up because those tax cuts benefited people from all classes, low, middle, rich, small business to big corporations. So no, he is not going to only raise taxes on people making over $400k. Any reasonable thinking person can clearly understand this.
I got to vote for trump for sure!
What a legend! He got it right 3 months ahead!
This aged well.
“The best way to predict the future is to choose it.”
I love that quote!
Yep. I chose Trump for 4 more years. Unleash this economy and get back to work!
@@1cont glad he meant for the majority to choose it. but don't worry, you will be winning very soon, though not in the way you expected.
@@cautiouslyhopeful Don't worry, the majority will choose Trump again :)
@@ezequielroldan4908 hahahhahhahahahahahjah. The majority will choose the right candidate..just like they chose her last time.
Regardless of what this video says, go out and vote!
Yes everyone! Vote!
oH eVeRyOnE FoRgOt
Yes, for Trump
And bet. u can vote for biden And bet Trump cuz the odds r now favor biden. good hedge
@@liyexiang666, no they are not. Trump has almost every single southern state, the dakotas, and Idaho, Iowa, Utah, and plenty of other states. Florida is essentially tied. Yes Biden does have both California and New York, but besides that, he doesn’t have many states. Trump is likely gonna win.
"Yes, even that one"
That amount of shade thrown tho 😂
Gotta find this dude so he can grab my scratch tickets
lol
What does this mean?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. GET OUT THERE AND VOTE.
Yeah, and make sure to vote in person. I don't trust voting by mail. I think this will be a problem for Biden.
@@Joselinema100 This is my prediction, remember me if i am right. I beleive that trump will win, but then the left will find big amount of mail in votes for biden, and then biden is going to win. Thoughts?
@@danny-gz8if Oh wow. I was thinking the same thing. Trump might even declare himself the winner before the mail in votes. Just imagine that?
Trump 2020
I mean it's all up to the college vote
U could tell as soon as she said "even that one" this video was predicting Biden.
literally bro
I just assumed she said “even that one” because a lot of people were sure Hillary was going to win
@@monkeykori2080 That is what she meant.
I mean just because you dont support trump doesnt mean that you wont talk about the chance he wins since you would fear that ofc
NYT would have never posted this if Trump was predicted lol
Thank you. I’ve won so many bets because of you.
And he was right! Thank GOD!
Its also looking like republicans will win in 2024 using his keys lol!
@@Peter-qs7ey I will be judging the keys based off of a Biden vs Trump 2024 scenario.
1. Midterm Gains, there was not a red wave as predicted, in fact there was a small blue wave. JB
2. No Primary Contest, it is very unlikely the Democrats would throw Joe Biden out in 2024. JB
3. Incumbent Seeking Re-election, so far, it appears Biden is here to stay. JB
4. No Third Party, assuming Trump is the nominee, there will most likely not be a significant third party challenge in 2024. JB
5. Strong Short-Term Economy, this one is not entirely clear as we are not there yet; therefore I render this key null and void.
6. Strong Long-Term Economy, high gas prices and rampant inflation has led many Americans to blame a poor economy on Biden. DT
7. Major Policy Change, the Democrats, thus far, have led the most left-wing administration in quite some time, as seen through the IRA and student loan reduction, both if which are popular among the American people. JB
8. No Social Unrest, there has not been any major social unrest and I find the odd of any happening particularly low. One could argue Roe v Wade, but that instance would benefit Biden. JB
9. No Scandal, there has not been any major scandals under Biden. One could argue Hunter Biden, but it appears the vast majority of the American electorate does not care in the slightest about it. JB
10. No Foreign Military Failure, Afghanistan put Biden in quite the negative light. DT
11. Major Military Success, there has been no major military success this far and I find it unlikely that there will be. DT
12. Charismatic Incumbent, as Alan pointed out in the video, Biden is not charismatic in the slightest. DT
13. Uncharismatic Challenger, once again, as Alan pointed out, Trump is not charismatic. JB
With all of these keys tallied, it is rather clear Biden is more likely to win in 2024. I’m not sure how you could think Republicans could win in 2024; most likely your own bias going against you.
@@Peter-qs7ey
No Biden 2024
@@Peter-qs7ey
It's too early
“The best way to predict the future is too choose it”
- Abraham Lincoln - (The First Republican)
To*, but good quote.
@DECLAN DOUGAN Both Lincoln and Eisenhower are the best Republican presidents United States ever had in history of politicians. Even though both of them were at war but they never give up for their country to be very equal with each other and Trump will never be like them and the same with the Democrats of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Theodore Roosevelt are also better then Trump that’s no question.
It's funny you mention how he was a republican, because both parties switched their economic and political beliefs around the early 1900s. The republican party was known as the "Radical Republicans" in the civil war era.
@@wadeaiello3261 If you don’t know history then your wasting your time bro because the blacks in the civil war are fighting for there rights they want freedom they are willing to sacrifice their lives for the blacks and America in general. Blacks wants equal rights as all races that’s why they joined the war in the first place and not only whites have rights but blacks have rights too same with all races. If you don’t know history you better read Civil rights movement takes place way before 1960’s era. Watch movies like Denzel Washington’s Glory and explained to me later about the blacks in the civil war.
Lincoln was not the founder of the GOP.
The conclusion: WE MUST VOTE.
The 2020 Election predictions depend on it.
Trump claims that US covid death less than other nation newsonthegotoday.com/o0dg5x
@K1dCharlemagne Do some research! Covid-19 attaches to several receptors, most notably ACE-2, and much of the damage is due to the massive clotting that takes place in the lungs and other organs. I believe you are correct in that many people die with little or no virus in the body-however they are dying due to the massive clotting and cytokine storm the virus causes. I believe the deaths due to Covid-19 are fairly accurate-the confirmed case count is almost certainly less than the actual case count, perhaps by a factor of 10 or so. Again, do your research using information from people who study viruses and medicine instead of talk-show radio hosts :)
Blake Johnson trump2020!!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Trump 2020.
@@blakefryar4189 i like diamond and silk's "Jim Crow Joe"
Wow! Biden has won. Congratulations Professor.
He doesn't predict the election. The election follows what he predicts
I think this election is a tough one, the virus makes a lot of these categories messy
Right! I doubt him choosing false for the 2 economy related points is not as black and white as he says, the only reason the US economy is bad now is because of the pandemic so I think for many people the sentiment will be that Trump did well for the economy, and he definitely qill be considered the right man to revive the economy once rhe pandemic is done with.
Also the 2 false on scandals and social unrest might actually turn out to be a true because both will ne considered by many as nothing more than a result of the blantant resistance by the democrats.
And no major foreign/militairy successes? Well I'm not even going to say anything else then that Trump has won 3 peace nobel price nominations...
So with a "win" for Biden of only 1 point, but with 4 point debatable and 1 that in my opinion definitely should've been true I wouldn't be surprised if Trump will keep the White House...
@@eldin0074 my thought exactly.
@@eldin0074 exactly, plus other systems predict it.
without the pandemic, this economy would be lit
🔥 🔥 🔥 we reached record low unemployment and everyday making new all time highs in the stock market.
If the pandemic and protests after George Floyd never happened, trump would most likely win in a landslide against Biden
This guy and the Simpsons are too much for our planet to handle!
Edit: thanks a lot for the likes!!
Why did you put an apostrophe in Simpsons?
And yet he's been right about every election, and is already looking right about this election.
Biden 2020 😎 !!!!
Everyone gangster until some guy accurately predicts something in 2020.....
I’ll be sure to check back with this dude in 2024.
I predict this guy will get the same haircut the next time he goes to the barbershop.
Pretty sure he’s not getting haircuts because that’s a wig.
I know like Bill Gates!
Awesome comment.....needs a Comment Grammy
Lmfao
matthew portilla shh liberals don’t know how to tell the difference between fiction and reality.
This aged well☺️
He's still right.Perfect predictions.
This is insane! I’m watching this weeks after the election and still can’t believe how good this guy is. I wonder how long his streak will last?
* immediately goes to comments to see who he predicted instead of watching the whole video *
After saying one of the “keys” was has sitting POTUS had ANY significant foreign policy successes? Guy says no. PLEASE!! 😂😂😂😂 So in end his analysis Trump loses
Only god has the last word
The long term economic thing should have went to Trump and there hasn't been any major military victories cuz we haven't really been in any major wars or battles other than ridding the world of ISIS.
@Daniel Vazquez trump was nominated for the Nobel peace prize for his Israel Pakistan negotiations. Foreign policy success, absolutely.
Matt Vowles ; I sat thru the whole video, but fell asleep after the first couple minutes. true story.
I actually like his method of predicting election outcomes. It's definitely more interesting than simply looking at polling data.
When did he predict these last 5 election results ?
Out of interest.
Nihilistcentral UK He said trump would win in 2016. Prob the only person who said it.
Polling, to be honest, I would never do a polling, as it was a really waste of time. I got work and sports to do. I think polling really target specific type of people (those who dont do a lot, or those who watch a lot of cable TV). So it can be really out of touch with reality, especially during this tough time.
@@breadordecide na other people said the same thing as well
Denenterprieses or whats left of it Yeah but his system is how he figured it out. I doubted him once I wont doubt him again. If he says Biden is winning this time, he’s gonna be right.
annnnnd, hes right again
this guy is truely a smart guy
Never underestimate Allan Lichtman. He’s been doing this job of electoral predictions since the early 1980s. He once again stands corrected.
I think "stands corrected" implies that he was wrong and someone corrected him. You may wish to reply with the phrase, "I stand corrected."
@@tonyetzu what I simply meant was for all the people who doubted Allan’s prediction he has once again been proven right.
The guy predicts that Trump will lose the white house, there saved ya about 7 min
Time Stamp: 6:29 (so you all know I ain't lying)
Thank you 😊🤣🤣
Thank u
Thanks
O, You Watch Choco Taco, Right?
@@huzaifaakhtar8080 yeah
He should run for president just to see his strategy
His “strategy” has nothing to do about how to win the presidency
@@JoeyTurVic If he's predicted right on plenty of other elections, then there is a 100% chance of him winning a presidential election, if he ever runs for president and predicts himself.
After a year I came back to review. Alan has earned his credibility.
Congrats Professor! You win again!!
Plot twist: he counts the votes
Hahaha 😂
Trust that idea more then the current one lol
Ooooooooh
And he still loses lmao😂😂
@Matthew Ortiz 💙💙💙
This comment is not political whatsoever.
Thx
I would thank you of it wasnt under a purely political video
I disagree with your comment not being political whatsoever and I don't like it.
Neither is mine Micah the Horse for president
@@everyone343 This response neither agrees or disagrees with you.
Who’s here couple days or weeks after Biden’s inauguration
This really put me at ease for the last few months.
This video aged like a fine wine
*hopefully*
Georgia blue LMAO so much for "I can't wait for the meltdown when Trump wins".
I didnt like the condescending narrator though.
@@BrianGriffinW yup :)
@@namelastnamefirst4520 he just lost buddy
It did
Good job, sir! Unfortunately you will get hate and possible death threats by the undesirables and deplorables but the light is wit you..so don't fret. BIDEN2020
He was right💙💙💙
And once again, he turned out to be true.
waiting for all the Trump supporters who said they'd be here after the election...
...still waiting
hahaha
Lol
Lmao
.
They don't listen to logic
I already predicted his prediction before watching. How predictable.
i mean it is only a 50/50 chance,its not really hard to predict
@@rari2943 no, u just look at the channel name and you know the answer. In todays word, news only reports 1 side of the coin, if the other side turns up, they just ignore it and report nothing. That's also true for Fox News, they just report the other side. But.. u can always watch both i guess.
Gods in control!
Ctxz I do watch both to see just how biased both are
Correct, it's the NYT promoting Biden, cherry picking because what else are they going to do, talk of Biden's achievements during his 47 yr career? That would take less than a minute unless you included Biden's achievements for himself, like all the money given to him and son in trade of favors by other countries, or being able to sniff, touch and kiss so many children in front of cameras and their parents without being stopped, or succeeding on Jill looking the other way at these "clintonesque/democrat indiscretions".
As a Biden supporter, I’m sort of glad I didn’t see this prior to the election, but now looking back on it I’m really glad to see he was right
awwwww donald gonna write him another letter now or what?
Haha good one
Imagine every 4 years this dude suddenly becomes popular
Imagine if Trump wins and he's irrelevant for the rest of his life
the algorithm would love that
Unlike Chris Berman's cab driver who popular once every year. Hahahahaha.
@@fressfisch imagine you publically face some responsibility by offering people ideas and knowledge
@@fressfisch imagine being wrong oh wait....