The 2024 Hurricane Season Is Waking Up (Tropics Update)
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- Опубликовано: 6 сен 2024
- After a quiet stretch behind hurricane Beryl, the 2024 hurricane season is about to wake up. In this tropics update the 2024 hurricane season is likely to pick back up during the first week of August.
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Chapters
00:00: Intro
01:07: Active Hurricane Pattern Coming In August
02:50: Tropical Update
04:40: What Is The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
05:24: MJO Forecast
08:36: Model Forecast For First Week Of August
11:50: Saharan Dust Forecast
12:47: Tropics Watch Newsletter
13:30: Follow Me On Social Media
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It looks like the Atlantic is going to wake up rather quickly during the first week of August. This unfortunately was predicted in the spring. More ion why in the video. Be safe, friends! - Jonathan
Thank goodness I found a fair and honest youtube weather person
Appreciate that! Thanks for finding us and welcome to the team! - Jonathan
Jonathan, I so adore u and watch u diligently - love so much how well u explain weather - can't thank u enough. I procrastinate but it's time to take photos and document our home inventory for insurance purposes - just in case. God's continued blessings and protection for all of us. Thanks so very much. 🙏🏻😍🙏🏻🤗🙏🏻
You’re very welcome! You’re very kind. That’s always a great idea! Hope you have an awesome evening! - Jonathan
Jonathan, thank you for a great reporting. It's very important for us in So Florida to know what is coming our way,
My home was flattened in Carriacou by Beryl. God protect us
Oh, wow! Praise the Lord you are safe!
Very happy you’re ok. Praying for a speedy recovery
Jonathan thank you again, you do such a great job explaining complex systems so non-scientists (like me) can digest it lol. In Boca, so this season I’ll be following your channel closely!!
Yup. With no sensationalism also. Upfront and honest
Appreciate you! Thanks for tuning in. I’m just up the road in Orlando so will be watching the state closely! - Jonathan
I'm in Boca too
Since we live a mile and a half off the Gulf, I'll be tuned in all season. Leaving a comment for the algorithm. Thanks for the concise, data driven forecast.
You’re welcome my friend! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan
I'm currently studying meteorology and atmospheric science in California. I appreciate the emphasis on the importance of listening to forecasters. Professionals in the field don't just make predictions out of thin air; their expertise is based on years of research in climatology, analysis of historical data, which is then understood by a multitude of models, and consideration of current conditions. I'd rather be over-prepared for severe weather than ignore the warnings and risk being unprepared to protect myself and my family.
An interesting month ahead for sure!
No question about that!!
True to thought ... it is what it is ... We've been relaxed, maybe a bit too much after Beryls rampage through the Caribbean ... ... especially since Bim is still cleaning up in the aftermath ... thanks as always for your constant expertise!
Thanks again weather man ur indeed updated early thank u
You make this so easy to understand -- and I appreciate that you explain WHY you form your opinions. Great breakdown!
Hurricane season isn't in full swing yet. It lasts till the end of November. Hurricane Beryl was just the Atlantic clearing its throat, hurricane season is far from over!
On Saturday, I am going to Roatan, the Caribbean island of Honduras. I will there till mid-August, so I am crossing my fingers. After a bad drought in the dry season, Honduras is now having an over-active rainy season. Thanks, La Niña!
Really hope these hurricanes in the future dont give the U.S. the blues too much! Beryl was enough. Thanks for the info! Liked and Subbed!👍🏼
August outlook looks exactly as it is today..which has dust and dry air pushing any systems far south. when all those conditions stop being in place storms can develop in a more northerly track. but not until that happens.
Which is mid August. - Jonathan
Nice to see you again Jonathan. Thank you for your wonderful reporting on weather conditions.
Please no more hurricanes for Houston, I am fortunate to get power back after 3 1/2 days.
That’s terrible. Sorry you have to go through that! - Jonathan
July in central TX has been weird, afa barely hit 100+ compared to the past couple years. Esp considering it got so hot in the Spring, we expected a sweltering summer. Will Aug-Sept be like July, or will we get our typical consecutive 100+ days? Thanks! :)
I see after a very quiet end to July beginning of August will pick back up ready to go in preparation for hurricane season.
Absolutely! - Jonathan
Thanks for the update SVG St.Vincent and the Grenadines it's raining right now
You got it my friend! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Good morning! Tuning in from Miami!
You're awesome!
You’re awesome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Jacksonville, FL
Hello! - Jonathan
For September Nova Scotia Will Not Be Getting A Hurricane This Year
That Is My Perdition Do You Agree With Me
I've been watching the MJO for a while. It doesn't seem to have as much green in it as it did a week or two ago. Just an observation, I don't know much about it but I'm trying to learn.
EDIT: In the Caribbean and Atlantic
Thank you for the update
You’re welcome! - Jonathan
For Hurricane season, God told me that the hurricanes are supposed to go around us but not hit us, I live in Oakland Park Florida! God is always right when he talks to me!😊
could the mjo but a sinking air mass with good timing in early to mid sept?
What about Georgia
Thanks Jonathan
You’re welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
I’m going to Destin between August 1st thru the 5th should I be good
Would definitely keep watching. Depending upon the track could bring some rain…but by and large wouldn’t be h til the end of your trip or just after…so I think your mainly good from the tropics! - Jonathan
Northeastern Fl
SW FL
Pray for us in Puerto Rio Bri, we dont need another Maria!!😢, thanks for your work. Keep waiting your updates! Bless you Jonathab! D.🇵🇷👋🌀
Have a great evening! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Hello, Jonathan 😅😅😅😅😅
Hello! - Jonathan
How many days does last a Madden Julian Oscilation on average
It changes the weather for about 1-3 weeks. - Jonathan
St lucia 🇱🇨
Welcome! - Jonathan
Puerto Ricans: NO NOT AGAIN 😭😭😭
And Jamaicans
No kidding! - Jonathan
praying for all island 🏝️ my god keep everyone safe Amen
Hurricane system been so dead! Only one so far granted it was big but forecasters gonna be off on their predictions by a wide margin this season I think. Been following hurricane tracker for many years and don’t remember such a long period with not even any low odds of formation systems in the Atlantic in July as this. Been around 3 weeks now of nothing on the tracker lol. Good thing of course I just enjoy following.
We are typically only supposed to be a couple through this time so unfortunately the predictions are spot on. There is usually a lull like this every year by the way. It’s just been so active of late we forget about it. 4th named storm of the season doesn’t normally develop until August 15 so we have about three weeks to go until we would be behind schedule. May end up with at least two by then. - Jonathan
@@just_weather typically as in what time frame? We all know hurricanes have been more frequent in recent years, I’m not denying that, I’m saying this July has been the deadest I’ve seen over many recent years not just in named storms but anything popping up that could possibly become one. Not really useful to compare today to last 50 or 100 years of records.
So it’s the same as last year and the year before and the year before. Oh wait and the last 20 years. You see the same predictions and mapping every year. Thanks for the reminder. lol…….
Not sure what you’re talking about. Literally different every year. - Jonathan
Thank you for sharing !!!! The signs of the times are up on us when our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ shall return for His people that has
chosen to serve Him and waiting for his Glorious return to take us back and meet him in the air and so shall we ever be with Him for eternity!!!!! I pray that you are a child of God !!!! God Bless!!!!!!!
You’re very welcome! - Jonathan
Predictions already wrong this year bravo bravo thank you weather people scare tactic calm year pacific is getting storms over there finally very late every year the same only truth here
Actually predictions are right on the money. You can troll elsewhere. - Jonathan
@@just_weather not true at all Jonathan
all the weather people oin tv are saying the same thing predictictions were wrong thank you oh not a troll just the truth here my friend have a great and wonderful day John
We’ll see how close the pre-hurricane prediction on numbers were once the season is over but without being a meteorologist, I’d be shocked if they come close to the predictions. Deadest July I’ve seen just in activity on the tracker in the many years I’ve been following. I do realize we haven’t gotten to peak season yet though.
@@burtonupchurch1690 Every year is a different year for 60 years of it should know the cycle by now only mother nature knows what will happen for sure Thank you
I subscribe to your channel. I thought you were just straight up weather instead of all the drama like in the weather channel. This post shows that you're just like everybody else and drama queen.
What? Could you please explain? Where was the drama? I’m truly curious. Thanks. - Jonathan
You are wrong and disrept this channel!! D.🇵🇷
@@just_weather I live on my boat in the panhandle. The only place I can get current weather what's going on is tropical tidbits you can't go to the weather channel because it's all drama. Trust me I do for 10 years to scuba dive in for 10 years and this guy standing in front of a breakwater with with clap with mask on, it's just BS when I saw your channel. I thought this is great somebody elsewill talk about the weather. And then you come up with this hurricanes are building up. You know what I wanna know when they're coming and what to do offense your presentation is excellent.
I guess I still don’t understand. It’s not bs what I’m taking about. I’m talking about the mechanism moving into the basin that will create a very active pattern in the Atlantic basin. That’s my job to forecast things. - Jonathan
He's not fear mongering he's just listing the facts and hurricane season normally does get more active this time of year? Many weather channels may fear monger and over exaggerate these storms, but Jonathan isn't like that.