Tesla Split: Retail vs Institutional Investor Clash!
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- Опубликовано: 18 апр 2024
- It seems more than ever and more than usual, there is a deepening divide amongst the Tesla retail investors and the Tesla institutional investors. Today we’ll watch a video of Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities who, while a big Tesla Bull, just can't seem to believe that Robotaxi is going to happen before 2030 and he thinks Tesla will be falling into a long period of darker days ahead.
Larry Goldberg is a serial entrepreneur (co-founder of Sapiens Decision), angel investor, and co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
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Dan is right about one thing tho. Elon owes everyone a conference call where he doesn't act like an ass and actually addresses the concerns of investors. He needs to clearly articulate what to expect going forward. Layout the plan etc. Anything less is a straight up slap in the face to all of us that have stuck it out for years.
Robotaxi is coming sooner than 2030, but it's probably not going to be a massive share of EPS until 2030. So Institutional guys aren't completely wrong here. Remember guy's FSD is currently not ready for robotaxi. I drive with it every single day and there is absolutely no chance it could be a robotaxi of general purpose right now. Perhaps in a geofenced area of Phoenix where everything is perfect, but that's not going to make much money.
💯💯💯
Kara Swisher nailed it as a guest on the big Technology Podcast. She said "why would anyone buy a car from an asshole. He doesn't have to be an asshole. " She goes on to point out that VW, KIA and others have EVs to buy in US. The infiltration of these other brands without a decent history or a supercharger network traces back to one common point. He acts like an asshole. More and more are sick of him. He and his pal David Sachs are going to crash it.
Those mama still think he’s doing a gopd
Job
'Insanity is asking for the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. '
Amen to that. Elon is creating his own problems.
I’m a long time Tesla bull and shareholder. Dan is 100% right. The sub-compact needs to be delivered in HUGE numbers.
I’ve been using FSD since v.10. Yes 12.3.4 is a huge step forward. But its not going to be there for a long while. Far too many corner cases and regulators need time to get on board.
Elon needs to tell investors they’re 100% in on the sub compact at big numbers. Stating they’re all in on autonomy is not the right message for the market. Hurting shareholders for the next 2-4 years.
...the problem might that the $25k car isn't feasible (at least short term) and going with more "I promise this time my Robotaxi timeline is good" is the better way to buy time to get things back on track. Remember, promises have kept the faithful happy in the past, regardless of actual reality.
Because Tesla is just a car company?
Rather, build robotaxi, can displace 5x the fleet ICE vehicles. Also, can make way over 5x the profits even if sold to a separate taxi company, complete with FSD at $100,000. No contest.
Like taking an even bet, but bookie gives 100:1 odds.
Agree with Dan. Fsd and robotaxi not ready for another 5 years
They will be ready much sooner , with Neural Net AI learning
One yr. But FSD has already shown huge value supervised, just get rid of the nags, a lot of 'drivers' don't want to live without it already.
Talking to X owner yesterday, not really a Tesla guy but he said he can't even keep it between the lines accurately manually anymore, addicted to Tesla ADAS, only gripe was the nags.
Zoox is ready right now
Huge investment in Nvidia chips will accelerate progress.
Tesla said to have 100+ ExaFLOPs on-line already, months early. (Likely Nvidia, not Dojo)
Musk estimated 6 billion miles needed, its now approaching a billion a month, growing.
You are thinking linearly. Allow for exponential.
What qualifications do you have that you think you know better than Tesla?
Guidance on strategy is the correct term - thats what we investors deserve!
I like Larry's measured, clear observations.
Great point by Larry on the imminent need for “clarity on strategy”
Tesla treats their shareholders so poorly. No communication. Earnings calls are amateurish. Then they come to us and ask us to reelect the board. Hurts me to say this as an investor and bull.
Have you listened to other companies’ earnings calls? I prefer Tesla’s.
I agree with Dan’s prediction for driverless autopilot in 2030. I’ve had autopilot since 2019 and currently 12.3.4.
I agree with Dan. Now is time for clarity. No longer are investors just believing in Tesla. Teslas lack of communication and trust us we know better attitude is what's hurting us investors.
I think they do need to communicate better their plan..
I as a retail investor do agree with Dan. You guys, the youtube pumpers, keep pumping without being realistic.
We are witnessing reality, changing before our eyes. Forecasting the trajectory, long before the majority will even notice.
Why is the $TSLA community always in such turmoil? Both retail and institutional investors are like financial chicken littles either screaming that the sky is falling or enraged that other investors aren’t as bullish as they are. How about we sell our stock if we no longer believe in the company or buy more stock if the stock price is lower than we think it should be. Simple.
I think the Robotaxi and Model 2 are going to be 90%+ the same.
"We need a very non Elon explanation of Tesla's future plans on investor day" Larry says. Maybe they should give Elon subtitles. Jeannine
To not go full speed autonomy is to invite defeat.
The detail is window dressing.
Investment class slackers need to get off back sides and work to make future happen.
Grab a spanner & help out.
Their tongues have no value.
Dan’s wrong on this. If the $25K Tesla is revealed and opened up to orders and people really like the car but then have to wait a year and a half because of a ramp up, then they won’t be buying any other Teslas while they are waiting. Already have enough “Osborne” effect going on. For example, there were some prospective Model Y buyers who like the ground clearance of an SUV, like the fact that it can tow stuff, but decided to order a Cybertruck. Now they are waiting a year and a year and a half for the Cybertruck without Tesla selling them anything. So how does Tesla keep this from happening with the $25K Tesla? By having common DNA with Robotaxi which will be a lower volume vehicle and ramping up Robotaxi first.
Elon's statement of being uncomfortable with not having at least 25% control because of EI was a death call to retail investor's, many have stuck by because of it, a valed threat to move it elsewhere was a jolt.
I read somewhere that he had about 23% before he sold stock to buy Twitter. Whether that 23% figure is correct or not, I don't know, but he certainly gave up a bundle of shares to buy Twitter and now has pulled a 25% figure out of the air and says he feels "uncomfortable" owning less. What a sense of entitlement.
You prefer to hand control to investment institutions?
Like they have any ideas, ethics, morals?
Musk & engineers can toe the corporate line, as hired hands, as Ross Gerber actually said.
Dan is right about everything
He handles people's money, he needs to show his investors immediate results not long term returns.
@@lukevo6485...he needs more than just promises for the future.
@@lukevo6485exactly. Everyone works for their wallet, their boss.
Nothing Musk does surprises me. I've been married to an engineer since the Jurassic period. You hear something about rot in the morning and you come back in the afternoon and the entire porch is gone. Jeannine
🤣😂 Look on the bright side: Some people can't even get their husbands to take the garbage out.
Watch that first step.
Alexandra Metz pointed out that there are different parts of society, and engineers have their own category They act on their own decisions at lightning speed with little or no discussion. No elaboration so it's tough for the rest of us when the decisions are important and affect us. Jeannine
problem is Elon isn't an engineer.
@@Withnail1969 dumbest thing ever written
@@roger_is_red he's not.
Dr Evil on the show😀
Cheers guys
Air Plane 1980 was funny as funk
How bout this? The "Quick Silver" Model Y cars parked on the west side lot ARE the robo taxis...
There will be no Robo taxi. it's over.
The same line can and will be able to produce all 3 types of cars. Model 2, Robo Taxi, or van. Throw in a different middle (with or without a steering wheel and peddles) at one section of the line and a different body at another section of the same line. Out pops the type car made to ordered.
If FSD continues to improve rapidly, then even if robotaxi is not able to receive government regulatory approval in the near term for a variety of reasons around the world, FSD will help to create massive consumer demand for 3 and Y and the Gen 3 compact. Would you rather have a BYD for a lower price or a Gen 3 compact Tesla with FSD “supervised” for slightly more money which drives better and safer than the average human in most situations? If Tesla is really confident on FSD, then they need to be building out capacity as quickly as possible right now for different models based on the unboxed Gen 3 platform, in Mexico and China and everywhere else!!!
Agree we investors who have stuck with him for years want clarity as well. We know the business is ok but if we want to feel good about the stock which is why I invest. We need institutions to join the party
People just need to admit that Tesla is a pricey stock given its current revenue stream. Sure, the prospects are good for growth, but that part is speculative. That means you're taking risk in hope of future rewards that are in no way guaranteed.
Notes taken. 😊
What I would like to hear at the earnings call:
We are delivering he Compact Car as fast as we can.
We do that by developing the platform manufacturing at Texas for all of our vehicles. Then we will copy, or multiply, that for increasing the production volume. The RoboTaxi will be used Tnere to ramp up the production volume, and we will build prototypes for the Compact Car there.
The Compact Car will be unveiled when we have built enough production capacity for it to make wait times f9r it bearable.
Was that too hard,Elon?
Always appreciate a good _Airplane!_ reference. Let's hope that Elon doesn't have a drinking problem.
“The radar’s jammed!”-🍇SpaceBalls 😂
Surely Tesla is desperate to keep discussions of the compact car to a minimum? They need to keep 3/Y sales up, and the second they confirm the compact car those sales of the 3/Y will suffer.
I expect the compact to arrive perhaps 3 months after it’s announced. No sooner.
Elon needs media training!
Someone has to tell him not to be as unprepared at earning calls as he appears to be. No one else so consistency tanks the stock at earning calls!
Zoox looks pretty cool to me . Love the car’s design and it’s already autonomous, so hasn’t Tesla already been beat?.
The fundamentals of tesla are fully intact wtf
Name one fundamental.
@@singed8853 billions in cash flow
Gentlemen - do you guys give any weight to my homegrown idea that the projected Costing of the Unboxed products might depend upon Optimus functioning on the Production line ?
The idea of a dedicated 2 seat robotaxi instead of model is worng. Instead, Tesla when the robotaxi is legal and relevant, can easily produce a full pledge robotaxi fleet based on trade-off model 2/3/Y/S it can trade with existing Teska owners for a new car. Hence hitting 2 targets with one blow: one - making its already customers happy and two - striking the doubling sales with model 2.
Getting the clear advantage on Robotaxi imo should be the primary goal. I realize this might keep TSLA flat for the next couple of years but if we truly want to prove that this is not just a car company, Robotaxi needs to be the focus and it will jump start everything from there.
Then we should expect too much volatility in the stock for the next 5 years
I'd like the hear the other executives back up Elon in saying that he's working in the company as he's always been and the main driver in all initiatives, and the speculation that he's part time at Tesla is just FUD. Similar like how they backed up the CFO in the last call. There is a high risk that if Elon does not get the compensation package, he'll step aside. Rightfully or wrongfully, the stock price will crater. Maybe that's what some ppl may want, to short the market, but morally, this will hurt a lot of ppl, and put a damper into human progress
Tesla split while price it's at $147/share today, had me on the double-take.
I thought Elon mentioned they were making the first Line in Texas vs Mexico previously.
I would think that if they are unveiling robotaxi on 8/8, then I think its in Tesla's best interest to have that vehicle production online by 8/8.... even if it's only a few hundred RoboTaxis production rate.
When everyone is complaining and running away from the stock, perfect time to buy. Maybe we go to 100?
When Musk announced the Mexico factory at Investor Day in 2023, he said that the compact made at that factory would not be sold in America, instead the vehicles would be for the central and South American markets. We can now interpret this to mean that, even at that stage, he was anticipating that the US would be receiving the Robotaxi before the compact. So the messaging hasn't changed.
People have forgotten what he said at that Investor Day and have been assuming that when Musk said that the new vehicle production would start at Austin before Mexico that that meant that those cars would be sold to the public. That is an assumption that turns out not to be true. That doesn't mean that the compact has been cancelled. It just means that it will be sold in other markets where robotaxis will struggle to receive fast regulatory approval before the vehicle becomes available in the US, where Musk is assuming they will have FSD working and regulatory approval for robotaxis before the vehicles first roll off the production line.
I don't know if Iyves even owns a Tesla yet alone drives FSD V12.
V12 is next level ADAS. It is also the path to level 5. I do think to get to L5 we need much better camera positions, also more powerful inference that can run larger and many morw models to enable agentics and maybe high def radar to improve poor weather driving. So bespoke Robotaxi would enable such new stuff on it.
Ps
The unknown for me is if such an above changes means that they will have to start from ground zero, to build up the data set.
Maybe that is why Tesla has the high-res radar installed in S and X, gathering data in shadow mode. 😊... methinks.
I thought Tesla pre-sold more cyber trucks than they would be able to build in years. I just saw seven sitting on a Tesla "dealership" lot, on an Indian reservation in New Mexico. 😢
I like Dan but he's wrong about FSD will be ready in 2030. He doesn't take into account the computing power growth in Tesla. 10,000 H100 for starters heading to 100,000. This will increase AI compute and this equals a better FSD. Prior to V12, it was scary. Now I'm driving V12.3.4, I'm comfortable.
Great comments by Goldberg. Why should the fanboys debate the direction of Tesla?
Tesla is the only company whose management doesnt feel any obligation to provide their investors any plans or direction. So wall street makes the plan for the stock
Dan Ives saying there will be no autonomous cars before 2030 is silly. Nobody knows when it will be solved so he shouldn't pretend its more than a wild guess based on basically nothing.
Robotaxi will be the compact car.
...sure, because no one ever calls a taxis for multiple people, or with lots of luggage. They prefer small, cramped cars with absolutely no frills.
Thanks for doing this, Herbert. I know Larry is bought in. If FSD is not ready by December 2024 - Q3, 2025, then who will pay for my loss of value over that period of time? An investment is not a day at the tracks.
Technology never been done before.
Achieved via largest computer ever built.
Using biggest fleet of "driver-assist" software & video cameras - storing & transmitting data.
Smartest software engineers.
Yet you want guarantee, like government bonds?
Tesla isn’t your mummy, isn’t GM, isn’t Big Oil, Big Pharma.
Robotaxi and Gen3 can be used both ways and Robo may soften the price to 25k or even less. …… talk of 6 years is ridiculous and Ives says…”TRUST ME” ??
This channel has a huge flaw that whenever the host heard something bad about Tesla immediately gone wild and seems to disbelieve what other critics are saying. SMH
I am sure that Elon has already modeled all the time variables to FSD after he said there wasn’t no more compute restraints . 14000 cut in Jobs buys 3 billion more Nvidia processors under cap ex.
Elon and Tesla doesn’t want to drop any hints that the compact car is around the corner else it would cause an Osborne effects in their other cars, esp the new model 3 refresh. The compact car and robo taxi are on the platform and the unboxed method will allow them to switch between the two models on the fly. So, I m even more bullish now since the more they don’t talk about it the more likely the compact is coming soon.
Worse … Chinese will copy everything.
Much as Tesla wants to progress the industry, they need to stay ahead to stay afloat.
I’m sick of hearing of Osborne. Think BYD, XPeng, Xiaomi.
Its funny we are betting the future stock price but we want to be sure that it will be 2x next year. I think this is not how it works.
We DO want the movie Spaceballs.
Compact car is evolution.FSD is revolution..what do you think about that?
We talk a lot about the Osborne effect. Do you think the next Gen car will have this effect!?? How can it be avoided?
The Street see what see and don’t have the knowledge for the perspective to change their mind and understand the FSD / RoboTaxj windfall story. Limited stale thinking
Wait until the stock price goes down to $35 then no more long or short term bull
I don't mind if short-sighted traders want to sell, I'm still waiting for my limit orders to get filled 😉
Honestly, forget Dan now
Ivyes has no clue about regulation. In the US unlesss there are express laws banning autonomous vehicles then it is legal.
It would be like saying that fall over on a pavement is ilegal in the US. WTF dude. This FUD around regulation of autonomy is a comfort blanket for consumers, nor the law.
Obvioualy when autonomy is ready Tesla etc will have to engage with regilators on insurance etc.
Robo taxi is nothing but FSD highly improved in any kind of car that has the proper sensors. You don’t need a compact car. You have model three in the model Y. The steering wheel can still be in there or not.
Nope.
Horseless carriage didn’t keep the horsey part.
Robotaxis will have far more in common with lounge room - with airbags.
Or with airliners - tiny windows just showing the clouds.
Perhaps finally we can put cars underground.
Elon must see that there is still a macroeconomic headwind in the form of a recession. If consumers are not going to buy cars this year, why invest more money building factories when you can redeploy that cash towards AI and the next phase of the growth story.
The 3rd-quarter earnings call was bad - much worse than any others - hoping Elon recognizes that and turns it around next week. I wish he would confirm an expected date for "model 2" but sandbag by six months to lessen the Osborne effect and also give mgt some breathing space in case circumstances delay them. I would also very much like to know why the excruciatingly slow ramp of semi, and the slower than (we) expected ramp of mega packs. Poor planning/execution, battery constraints, or something else?
China already has plenty of pretty nice looking cheap EVs
The semi is a stock pumping project in my view. That’s why we see nothing substantial occurring with it in the real world. It doesn’t ’out compete’ diesel trucks as Elon promised. So we don’t see it being marketed or sold to the general market. And we see that the few sales Tesla has made have come with NDAs.
Seems like fuel would hugely out-compete, at least today. But maybe too high a delivery price offsets? Interesting re NDA's thanks -
Fair point re China competition in China , but I believe there would be sig demand here in the US. Maybe my take is a bit skewed because in my immediate family both my son-in-law and son would be buyers.
@@singed8853 nothing will ever out compete diesel. only a nuclear truck could.
Evening guys
Tesla slashes Supercharging fee 27% - cheapest in U.S, Europe, Australia & UK
The Electric Viking
Tesla's earnings report will reveal the start of building the gen 3 model in China, and building the robotaxi in Austin. Jeannine
Elon mention 25k car will just plain transport. Is that mean no compute ?. If there is no FSD, why even bother any Chinese company can do it. That's a race to the bottom.
You guys love Dan when he is the bull and hate him as the bear
Yep.
The Chicken and the egg evolved just like everything on the planet
I want Tesla -> Elon to be positive and be all in on the compact. I don’t care if Robotaxi starts next year. I want huge production on making compact car. -> down over $300,000.00 doesn’t help me sleep
You know what to expect if you invest in TSLA. If you don't agree with it reduce your position
Not retail vs institutional investors, just Musk cults vs rational investors 😂
Airplane Classic Scenes
Dunderphonic 8-Bit
I think Elon does not have choice he maust have to launch model 2 next year before robotaxi its like Wallstreet need model 2 not robotaxi he should reaffirm the model 2 production time line
That guy is a short seller of course he says bad things. You shouldn’t have him on. Try and find somebody better.
*Lol, robotaxi and model-2 are same car, except for a few minor differences that are easy production line mods due to drive by wire simplicity* 😂😂😂😂
The dude is telling what he see
Read "1,000% Returns: Taking Advantage the Stock Market's Gross Incompetence." And "Generational Wealth: Beginner's Business & Investing Guide."
There are too many musty people waiting to sue Elon for any information he will give them. The less they know - the better.
When has Elon ever given clear indication of anything? I can help you.. never. He’s said it before he’s not interested in that compact car but people keep dreaming it up
Spaceballs is ok Larry. Ludicrous
When did Lia Thomas start working for Yahoo News?
India.
I don’t know, but every time I see Dan Ives talking about Tesla and then all of a sudden I see him trying sell me a model Tesla car trying to be sold to me I’ll bail I don’t even watch the rest of the video. It’s such a turn off. I hope you never ever do that, and I’m sure I’m not the only one in
Elon has done two great briefings for SpaceX laying out the future. That is what we need for Tesla. Details are not necessary, but a general plan and direction is. The stock price may not be the most important item for Tesla, but it is still an important item.
...and yet he is years behind schedule there too.
Now that you mention it. You can tell space x and x is where his real passion is
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 He is far far ahead of any competitor anywhere in the world.
I think tesla has become to large and maybe elon doesn't feel passionate about it anymore. He probably owns much more of X and SpaceX - and spends more time and effort there.
Mr Musk gets sh!t done
If u have hundreds of thousands invested in Tesla , I bet your not 😂😂😂
Building china is not tesla plan usa only or europe
I JUST CANT STAND MAMA ALWAYS THINK ELON IS RIGHT
Downvote
Elon already said that the compact remains. He indicated that the Reuters article was false. Why is everyone so confused ?
Elon is super clever wall street will jump out windows when elon pulls cat out bag go for it elon
If I can buy a model three for 31,000 brand new what’s the big deal about $25,000 car?
2035 when FSD will be approved for robotaxi
Dan Ives’ way of speaking makes me cringe. Stop encouraging him!! Am I a language snob? Yes! 😂
…although the “Ted Stryker” reference was funny.
These Immigrants Are SO Ungrateful, It’s Almost Painful To Watch
Matt Walsh
2.86M
Long investor/MY owner... If Elon slow rolls The world car it'll be a disaster. I'm worried that's why top people have been leaving. His ego & embracing Russian propaganda/fascism is out of control...he used to be my greatest hero... If he's a psychopath on top of this, he really doesn't care about us... He'll say he does but he doesn't. Am I worried? DEFINITELY!
Elon Musk has been a real disappointment. He reminds me of Henry Ford. Brilliant engineer and entrepreneur who clearly has done some great things, but unfortunately also has a very disturbing darkside.
ITS DOOMED ITS OVER