Could Chinese military conquer Taiwan within a year? Part 2/2
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- Опубликовано: 23 янв 2025
- What if People's Republic of China tries to take Republic of China? This second and concluding part of the series explores the possible course of invasion. Which areas are suitable, what are Taiwanese strengths and what sort of logistics obstacles would China need to overcome. A detailed comparison with Normandy landings also featured.
The first part of the series, talking about the general balance of power in the air and on the seas is here:
• Could Chinese military...
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If you've missed it, you can check out Part 1 of "Can China invade Taiwan series" here: ruclips.net/video/kr0s2t9uG5A/видео.html
USA VS IRAN PLS BINKOV
Wish China and Taiwan won't go to war. Also wish for AK-47 with it's descendants VS M16 and it's descendants?!
Albania vs Serbia
Spain vs Morocco
Egypt vs Ethiopia
Myanmar vs Thailand
NATO + South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and other non nato allies vs China and Russia and North Korea
East vs west germany
If I've learned anything from this channel it's that amphibious landings are hard.
No one said it was ever easy :P
It is the hardest. The defender is at the advantage while the invader has to provide air and naval fire support and tons of supplies for the landing troops. Part of the reasons what made D-Day and the Pacific Island campaign difficult.
Also the reason why the Soviets could not invade Hokkaido and why the Chinese could not invade Taiwan in the 1950-1990s.
Logistics requirement will only increase as more troops are being landed, that's why amphibious landings are very difficult.
What if the chinese started building artificial islands in the taiwan strait instead of South China sea instead?
Gavin Yong That would require looking for shallow areas like shoals and reefs. Im not so sure if the Taiwan Straits have the same features as the SCS.
You neglected the greatest battlefield between China and Taiwan: the comment section.
Joshua Jones, best comment sir.
Zhao*
Ah yes, people from the roc vs the people who use vpn in prc
@@thelegendformula6695 they don't use VPN, they are authorized and paid to comment on western social media that the rest of China doesn't even have access to, it's like their target isn't internal but the rest of the world.
@walker Zven 50 cent armies, they're everywhere. Some are die-hard prc fans tho. I met some of them who used vpn to do so and when I realized that, I threatened to report them to Beijing.
These videos actually make me feel safer knowing that other countries can't just go out and take whatever they want...
Generally the attacker needs a ridiculous advantage for a secure victory. Then you get a blitzkrieg into France and your statistics and predictions go down the drain.
Great channel, but i think in today's world... There isn't only China and USA... What if Japan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia also intervened, especially enraged by the claims of China over the sea?
@@CCPLord Then I guess all out war will insue. Pretty much imagine 1930's China's problem, but 100× worse
I would think its gonna be a one sided push though! Many are just waiting for the 1st move. Not gonna be a world war considering its probably gonna be World vs Chna(CCP). If it were pre CCP China, i think war couldn't happen, and even if it does, China (non-CCP) would have many allies
@@CCPLord China will be sucking up big time to Iran about Now.
The US discovered during WW2 how difficult it is to attack a heavily defended island. If Japanese and American attack submarines intervened the invasion would fail.
This is true for the deep water side of Taiwan. But there is a shelf between Taiwan and China. It is shallow enough that when a submarine attacks a target it will probably get spotted. And the shallow depth will limit evasion abilities. This will cause a high percentage of losses among attack submarines.
China wants the US and Japan to intervene so we can wipe out Japan.
@@richardautry8269 a maritime Tomahawk barrage against capital ships would cripple any invasion
@@lengyue00 Dont provoke the japanese. Have you forgotten what they did to china in 1930s and 1940s ?
And then China will be wiped out in nuclear fire by the US and India
To me, the fact that Taiwan survived and was able to keep its independence, means that there is a clear winner.
Alright thanks for spoiling it just as I click on the video
@@marcoroberts9462 If you're so adamant on spoilers then why view the comments in the first place?
@@marcoroberts9462 bruh
@@Aetherguy-cb9bu fair
“…Only the arbitrary time limit saves Taiwan…”
It's very difficult and resource-consuming to conquer a big armed island like Taiwan, even for US forces.
@Vlad the InhalerChinese and north Korea army suffered 650000 casualties. The USA and south Korea syffered 570000 casualties. The outcome of the war is never judged from the war.
@Vlad the Inhaler we know that US never treated their allies S.Korea as human (who had huge casualties during the war)
@@johnd855 South Korea had taken a huge beating before the US ever invaded. The North Korean invasion was a surprise attack, so really once you consider that the South/US/UN coalition did far better than the numbers imply.
@@T3485-k1k T34/85，you are familiar with USSR armor.
@@DeclinedMercyWhen North Korea was going to lose, China joined the war and push them back. Finally China and USA don't have power to fight back and the war is over.
Taiwan is about to get boosted with 66 extra F16V's, 102 M1A2T abrams tanks, and 120 stinger missiles, more firepower for them
赶紧独立，我们一直盼着，你们这种占着便宜又骂娘的做法让人很不齿，民进党还是不错的，至少比国民党好，民进党不虚伪。特别喜欢菜总统，简直是楷模，一定要当上总统，记得一定要选她。2020年蔡总统一定要当上！
@@nadasso2900 me love you long time
@@newsionl6092 me love you long time
China can not conquer Taiwan in 1949, 70 years ago. What makes them able to do so now ?.
If the US withdraw their military protection, Taiwan may surrender. But, then the US will lose trust of its allies.
@@nadasso2900 還以為有台獨，過氣了
As a Taiwanese, our reserve troops maybe really can helps, but we really need maybe 3~6 month to rally. We don't know if time could be our friend.
作为大陆的大学生，我真的不希望双方兵戎相见，我真的希望能够有一天双方能够妥善解决，这无关政治，只是一个老百姓的意愿，至于对岸的想法。。。至少我是尊重的，真心希望世界和平
True, but remember that getting someone up to speed for defensive missions can be done much faster than offensive operations. So lacking time to bring them all up to full readiness, you simple dedicate the lesser trained/prepare troops to defensive positions & roles, leaving more of the regular army available for offensive operations.
If you're really Taiwanese, you'd know when to prepare.
@@knoahbody69 yeah, at least prepare for myself.
@@piquant_pretext7630 There is no way in hell that with airstrikes alone china could cripple Taiwanese armed forces. Airstrikes by themselves don't do that many casualties at all. They are only/mostly used to target infrastructure and high command, not troops on the ground.
Never knew amphibious invasion was so hard and difficult . Explains a lot why in Ramayan Ram needed a bridge to cross his forces across Sri Lanka otherwise the whole operation could have taken years
Imagine lord ram in taiwan shooting down chinese planes with his magical arrows
With the rapid modernisation of Chin's army. Would like to see how it could pan out in 2021 in the same scenario.
Every country wants to be strong. Saying or making central plans to be strong doesn’t mean it’ll happen. That’s my opinion
Agree..by 2030 China can control the sea around taiwan and starve the island
Nah CovidChina’s military is brittle. And don’t forget Taiwan is not alone in this at all. Aside from NK COVIDChina is surrounded by juggernauts like India Australia and Japan and growing powers like Malaysia Indonesia and Vietnam. And the greatest military power in the world the US.
@@EmmaDwan8251 Bullsh@t, by 2030, 40% of China's population will be over 65, that's some 500-600 million people. That's around 60% OF ALL THE MUSLIMS IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. Nice try pooh bear.
Birkov has China losing in 2021 and subsequent years. Maybe he is an American NGO 🤔
Brazil vs Venezuela
Venezuala wouldn't stand a chance
Venezuelan citizens and soldiers are pre-starved already, even though blockade haven't yet begun.
Just like when you have to fight the DPRK, simply open a McDonalds in their formations and watch their ranks collapse. hahah
Well Bolsonaro is a ant communist and Venezuelas citizens have attacked Brazilian citizens near the border.
guntars mierins the FANB is already prepared for Bolsonaros imperialist actions😂 oh and the brazilian left and the Favelas would help Maduro for sure, so brazil would have a civil war incoming
The fact that each Chinese soldier is the only child in their family would pretty much prevented them from maintaining a high morale after a significant lost of lives.
Good point! And Taiwanese are protecting their island, homes and families with high morale for sure.
As a Taiwanese, can I have the permission to translate your video for subtitles? Thank you!
I do not think translation needs permission, just do it (if you have not done already). As long as you write where the original came from, and who made it, it should be fine.
高中程度大概就聽得懂了，你翻出來只是給一些沒念書台獨覺青拿來自慰而已，好像之前那些懶人包一樣。
講理性的，這個模擬完全沒考慮士氣的問題，十萬青年不代表十萬軍，十萬軍也不代表十萬的戰力。
戰鬥不是像電玩，一個班被砲擊打死三個，剩下八個還想打嗎？願意打嗎？有那個意志為國犧牲嗎？
這個模擬後期基本上都要在嚴重空襲之下作戰，出發到進入陣地可能就要被炸個好幾輪，裝備人員減損的很嚴重，這樣的情況還要作戰，要最精銳的部隊才能挺的下去，你覺得有這個可能嗎？
@@ht880910不打你的老母老爸就要被抓去勞改了 不打你的愛人要被抓去凌辱了
你不敢打拜託請滾出台灣不要降低台灣士氣
@@jim-kb4rm 2020讓蔡英文滾蛋 一看就知道沒當過兵
@@ht880910 唬爛也要打個草稿 高中也才12000個單字要考 你覺得有多少會跟軍事有關
I really hope that this China Taiwan war remains hypothetical forever. :(
Considering China would lose half of it's armed forces by trying and risk starting WW3, unless US foreign policy changes drastically in the near future, it most certainly will NOT happen.
Especially now that China started pissing off both Democrats and Republicans.
Yeah me too, but supposedly China was planning on trying it next year (The 2020 Plan). Two things have happened since that might deter them. First, the stuff in Hong Kong, which if China were to invade Taiwan would make even worse and possibly fire up more hotspots around the mainland. Second is the US just sold a massive amount of equipment to Taiwan for the first time in ages. Enough that it would totally rebalance the numbers cited in the first video.
However, China has added a second operational aircraft carrier to its fleet, which ostensibly would support such an invasion. I'm not sure what difference that would really make since, even if the US doesn't intervene for a year (or ever), it might still "intervene" using the most sophisticated attack submarines on the planet with a reasonable amount of deniability, and that alone could wreck the Chinese navy. It's navy has always been its weakest point, incredibly underpowered (if large) for the "world superpower" status it claims.
Best case scenario is China's plans for such an invasion are just that and meant for sabre rattling and they aren't serious, because if they try there are no real "good" outcomes.
It won't be forever. Definitely not at 2020 tho lol. Don't ever underestimate the determination of the communist government. Most of the people in mainland China supports war with Taiwan now.
@@womas5316 It's a simple question of 'will the US declare war on China if China attempts to attack Taiwan?'. If yes, China is fucked. If no, Taiwan is fucked.
If yes, however, that is WW3 right there and we are all fucked at the end of the day.
@@jabloko992 The thing about the US, due to its navy and its current economic status, it could comfortably declare war on China, and not suffer much if at all. It could keep the war at sea and basically dismantle China's sea power. Obviously no land invasion could be possible, but that would not be necessary anyways. China can't threaten the US mainland at all either. As war's go, it would be pretty tame.
I just wanted to say that these videos are so well done and it's very clear so much work is put into them
Very good analysis and overview. Another thing that would have to be considered is morale. The Chinese soldiers would be somewhat motivated by patriotism of a greater China, but only to an extent. The Taiwanese soldiers (and population) would be fighting for their homes, families and freedom, so for them it would be a fight to the death and an entire armed population to deal with - not just the men. Also, even if China could control the air and sea, landing, resupplying and supporting troops across a 100 mile stretch of sea would be a logistical nightmare under constant attacks.
Well Said
also, if you start killing their only child, the person that all the legacy of their family rests on you are going to see a revolt. the whole machine depends on keeping the people happy.
It’s not 100, it’s 20ish, penghu would be made into the worlds largest stockpile before the invasion for just that reason
But the bottleneck would be cargo totals and ports
China won’t risk. More likely destroy Taiwan’s cities and infrastructure and then blockade the island for years hoping to starve out the people. Basically bomb Taiwan’s cities to rubble.
@@k-musicradio That's even more true in Taiwan. Their demography is basically the same as China minus the countryside with TFR of 1.2. There are about 3 million total Taiwanese men ages 20-40, which is about the same as the current Chinese active duty military, and 5 times less than the number of Chinese 20-40 year old surplus men. There are 15 million young guys whose lineages were about to end anyways because they can't get wives...
It's good that you looked at the geography, but once again, you forgot to take into account the weather. China can only invade in the spring or fall. In summer, the risk of a tropical storm or typhoon is too great. If either occur, all air support and logistical resupply is out of the question. Given the initial battles, it would have to be October to November.
Your casualty rate is also way too optimistic. The figures you cited were tallied AFTER D-Day for the entire theater. DURING D-Day, you had the majority of the first wave being rendered combat ineffective in many of the landings. The worst case was Able Company of the 29th Infantry Division at Omaha Beach, which was rendered 100% ineffective, with all of their officers and NCOs becoming casualties within the first ten minutes and all but TWO enlisted men retreating into the deep water to hide; these two men moved rightward and joined a Ranger battalion on another beach. Considering that Taiwan has more troops, automatic weapons, and precision artillery than the Germans did along every stretch of the island, and the average Chinese division is just as fresh as the 29th, it will be like walking into a meat grinder.
Great comment from a great video. You made some excellent points.
Other factors that should be considered is foreign volunteers for the side of Taiwan. Much of these fighters will already have prior combat experience. If Taiwan can delay the landing force by just a few months, thousands of them can make their way onto the island to help with the defenses. In accordance with the video, just a few thousand of these fighters can make all of the difference.
Another factor (one of the most critical), Chinese Moral. The One Child Policy has created what may is called “Little emperor syndrome.” The decline of Chinese masculinity has been considered a great threat to the survival of the CCP. Despite the massive number of soldiers China has in their ranks, this doesn’t coincide with large amount of cannon fodder. When a Chinese man dies, it's not just a lost of a son for the family, but also the lost of their income as well for their children and grandparents; this can potentially destabilize the entirety of Chinese society, even if the lost is just in the tens of thousands, which is an extremely low estimate.
One more thing: China is highly nationalistic. It will deeply affect them when it comes to attacking their fellow ethnic Han Chinese.
I think Binkov should dedicate an entire video on the moral of the Chinese military.
The current Taiwanese forces goal is to sustain for two weeks. That's how long it'll take US to mobilize it's forces for an all out war with another major force. The two week time line has been referenced in numerous Taiwanese sources.
That's their minimum goal, but it doesn't mean they cant last far longer.
If Trump were in office China wouldn't dare to invade but with Mush head in office now they probably would
@Colk I mean, even if they didn't capture the cities, they could destroy them. That makes it a pyrrhic victory at best.
美国人刚刚从阿富汗撤军，我特别想问问美国人，你们做好和我们开战的准备了吗？
@@xela6349 they will destroy themselves all tiawanis at that point would have left the cities and went to mountains for Vietnam war strategy
most people here in the comment section consider themselves "experts" on military affairs by reading military magazines or reddit
Fax
SopeV0point1 definitely, reading is a good way for learning, however, to be a military stragetic expert, reading is absolutely far away from enough. we have so many readers around the whole world, how many experts or professors or scientists we have?
Most people don’t really care what other posters think. 🤔
Bold of you to assume they read anything
The US asks Taiwan authorities to at least "hold" for two weeks in the event of war, and this video is discussing a year?
even a narrow stretch of ocean is an effective obstacle to invasion, just ask the British
@HMSBlackPrince
The technological difference between two belligerents must be like a century or more to overcome the geography. If you got a gun, it isn't difficult to take a land from indigenous people with bows and arrows, as evident during the European colonization of the Americas. However, in today's globalized world, that technological gap have closed to only a few decades. Even the most technologically-backward military is still going to have access to assault rifle, MANPADS, and anti-tank rockets at minimum, all those things can still threaten even the most advanced military equipment under some circumstances. RPG-7 is almost 60 years old, and it can still cleave through the side and back armor of a modern main battle tank (if there's no explosive-reactive armor to protect that side).
The wehrmacht took a month to get to Paris covering 300km of a very flat terrain with good infrastructure, a very mechanized army against almost no resistance.
Thinking China could take half the time to conduct an amphibious landing against an entrenched enemy is frankly absurd.
Think about USA vs Vietnam. China trying to invade Taiwan is harder.
这是搞笑视频。。。。如果不计伤亡地打，怎么可能要2周
I think the best thing Taiwan could do is invest heavily in its subsurface capabilities. That way, they can wreak havoc on the Chinese shipping needed to sustain operations, as well as try to keep the shipping lanes open to Taiwan as long as possible
Planes dropping bombs on the little ones
Stark difference in how the Chinese fare between the first and second.
Amphibious landing is hard
Commisar Binkov, you are an insightful and always fascinating to listen to military analyst. Keep up the great work!
wow, I am very impressed with all the logistics and strategies provided in this video!
2nd Emu War?
Give this man a cookie
The Emus have been lacking lately. Australia may have a chance this time.
@@xeji4348 I hear it's all a ruse, I hear they've been rearming and training their troops for the wars to come....
There's already been 2 Emu Wars! xD
@@technocraticpolyglot You called?
China: *invade Taiwan*
Mountains: You have actives... MY TRAP CARD!
after some thought,my humble opinion is that the chinese wouldn't suffer as much as binkov's video presented, but the"7 day total victory" theory is indeed just a propoganda
u r wrong. IF the PLA invades, Taiwan would collapse from within. The Taiwan military has been betrayed by its own society so it wouldn't be surprising they would defect when the Chinese come along. This is the reason why the more capable Taiwan military generals and officers have all defected to China. it's a fact the PRO-CHINESE political faction in Taiwan loves their military, and every year holds celebrations of the time their forces beat back the Communist PLA in the 50's. Meanwhile the ANTI-CHINA faction in taiwan HATES their military. Even MAINLAND CHINESE LOVE THE TAIWAN MILITARY MORE THAN TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE GROUPS LOVE THE TAIWAN MILITARY, it might sound ironic, but it's a fact. China loves the Taiwan military more than Taiwanese love their military. No wonder Taiwan's military is all defecting to China.You think you can trust a military that constantly defects to your enemy?
一星期... 我感覺都多了... 大陸對著台灣的短程導彈有多少? 沒有了制空權，老共的轟炸機就隨便炸了... 一星期，怎麼撐? 別忘了大陸現在連火箭炮都有射程能打到台灣的型號了，能支撐一星期就很好了
评论的都是会汉语的 吧哈哈哈哈
@@frankun8755
一發長程火箭彈殺方範圍25*25米轟個小學操場都要4發起跳，遠程火箭彈造價一點都不便宜，實際上的效費比精準飛彈還糟糕...
那東西就是換個名子賣給不能買飛彈的國家而已..裝上精確引導就是飛彈的造價了....
@@lung8143 so true
Philippines: *chuckles* I’m in danger.
Japan: Get off my land!
(please also read addendum after original note)
1) In WW Two, US never considered invading Taiwan in US island hoping towards Japan. General MacArthur had spent about 10 years in the Phillipines and would have studied the defence of Taiwan (occupied by Japan for 50 years till end of WW two). He would have realised the huge and unacceptable losses in military resources and personnel in taking Taiwan even when US, by that stage, had the control of the sea and the air over Taiwan.
2) Taiwan has developed long range missiles with good precision. Just as China would try to destroy power grid and other infrastructures in Taiwan, Taiwanese long range missiles could be fired at similar economic infrastructures in the following regions in China:
Shanghai, NingBao and other centres in the Yangtze Delta. Guangzhou and Shenzhen near Hong Kong. These two regions along with Fujian province would suffer severe economic disruptions if Taiwan could keep up the missile attacks for some period. The literally over 250m population in these regions would panic. Scores of million if not over 100m of refugees would be on the move from these regions. Local police units would not be able to control them. PLA would need to be used to manage this crisis.
Chinese history says that once there are huge number of refugees on the move, unrest and rebellions will ensue. Often this would lead to the beginning of the end of a dynasty.
3) Political hierarchy and military leadership in China all have personal and familia economic interests in these regions vulnerable to Taiwanese missile attacks.Their considerable wealth would be reduced substantially and even destroyed in total.
4) Severe losses of personnel without a definite win in an invasion of Taiwan is known to all PLA officers- junior and most senior. Many PLA commands, just due to this, would rather REBEL than being sacrificed.
Chinese history is full of examples of military command turn-coats allowing a dynasty to fall earlier than otherwise. Indeed, that was how PLA won the civil war in China so quickly for over 1m KMT government troops defected or surrounded. e.g., 250,000 strong Beijing garrison surrounded to the PLA without firing a shot in early 1949.
Invasion of Taiwan would definitely see PLA Army units of at least 100,000 if not 250,000 soldiers as well as large number of units of PLA Airforce and Navy start their REBELLIONS against Beijing. Many would join the refugees in their rebellions against CCP.
Why die for nothing when the alternative is much better?
5) Taiwanese military is no longer controlled by KMT loyalists. They are made up of Taiwanese and those Chinese that have lived in Taiwan for 3 generations now. They do not see themselves as Chinese mostly. Taiwanese locals would not defect or turn traitor against their own people. Most as young as 40 years old had experienced discriminations in the hand of KMT Chinese before free elections of the last 20 years. They would rather fight to the death than being under the yoke of CCP China.
6) Assuming indeed Taiwan manage to defend herself effectively for 1 year and inflict severe losses on PLA, US more than likely will join the fight against PLA. That would destroy the bulk of PLA navy, all of PLA army units in Taiwan and hundreds of PLA airforce aircraft. China military capability would be set back for up to 50 years.
China would not dare to retaliate against US using Nuclear weapons as it would be suicidal. China would not nuke Taiwan for the nuclear fallout would float over to Coastal China worsening the civilian unrest and harming PLA units who would definitely refuse to fight for CCP.
This scenario of US wiping out most of the balance of PLA units invading Taiwan would also be considered by officers of all PLA units.
Again, many PLA units would rather REBEL than being slaughtered in invading Taiwan. 20m~100m Chinese refugees would join their fight against the CCP.
7) Even if Taiwan somehow stupidly sells itself to China without a fight, US will use Taiwan as the KILLING FIELD without invading Taiwan to keep China at bay in the Western Pacific. US would conduct this LIMITED but CONTAINED WAR in Taiwan sooner rather than later before China has the military capability to counter US effectively. US would then periodically attack Taiwan before China replenish its military forces sufficiently.
This scenario would be a certainty. I am sure that the Pentagon has such plans in place already.
Then Taiwanese would resent the fact that China could not protect her at all. Independence sentiment would be cemented within Taiwan. China would be back to square one with Taiwan.
I am sure that Taiwanese people would understand that their island would be the Killing Field in the struggles between China and US if China controls Taiwan. So they would think twice turning to China.
7) Only after some period of considerations and debate, did the last imperial dynasty in 1682 decide to crush a a small rebellion based in Taiwan. It took another 9 months afterwards before the imperial court decided to incorporate Taiwan into Chinese territory. At the time Taiwan had fewer than 100,000 inhabitants including 30,000 Ming supporters but most of the rest of 70.000 were local aborigines.
Successive Chinese dynasties before last imperial dynasty (1682) saw Taiwan as TOO FAR to control and to attack if Taiwan has sufficient population and adequate military defence of its own. The Mongols under Kublah Khan who conquered all China did not want to have anything to do with Taiwan for the same reason.
Migration to Taiwan after 1682 was discouraged (but not banned outright) by China. It was not till early 1870, was this changed. Within 25 years, Taiwanese population grew from fewer than 500,000 to 4.5m in 1895. Even the French was defeated by local Taiwanese militia in the 1882 invasion attempting to turn Taiwan into a French colony.
8) Taiwan is simply too far and with too large population for any effective control by China let alone taking it. This wisdom was noted for over 2,000 years till CCP-PLA winning China.
Taiwan is a trap for China and it could turn into a grave for CCP and PLA easily.
Addendum...
1) From the devastations caused by the Hannibal's army in the Second Punic War that lasted for over a decade till 190BC, the Romans realised that the best approach to fighting an enemy was to take the fight to the enemy's territory. For the next 400 years or so, that was exactly how the Roman empire conducted its warfare- far away from Italian Peninsula. This fact alone aided in the longevity of the Roman Empire. Subsequent invasions after 200's AD by the various barbarians weakened and then destroyed the empire.
2) The US and her military have learned from the Romans. WW One and WW Two have cemented the understanding of its benefits. It is one reason why US has maintained costly aircraft carrier fleet to keep any war far away from the US homeland.
3) During the Cold War period, both the US and the Soviet never dropped a bomb on each other's soil. They appreciated the dangers of such. Instead they conducted a series of proxy wars far from their own lands- Korea, Vietnam, Angola, Afghanistan etc. Again, the Russians also understand how the Romans had benefited from this.
4) By controlling Taiwan, China would be inviting troubles right at her front door. Taiwan, while it is difficult to invade, is ideal for limited air war and sustained bombardments. Chinese-controlled Taiwan would suffer major losses when (not if) US tries to keep China at bay for as long as possible. This would disrupt economic activities along the coast of China in addition to the huge loss to Chinese resources and personnel for not gains at all.
5) Even the wisdom of controlling South China Sea islets is somehow questioned. Beside potential oil resources nearby, these facilities on the small artificial islands only attract attacks from US down the track.
6) As the Roman domination lasted for over 400 years through fighting their enemies far from Italy, US has also enjoyed such. This is the main factor behind the might of US for there has not been a war fought on US since the US Civil War. China, with her own history of the last 200 years, should learn from the fact.
7) Hence the best option is for China not to take Taiwan and let the island be. China could then conduct her struggles against US in proxy wars elsewhere far from China. The CCP/PLA would have much better probability of survival.
True facts
Taiwan is not Isreal, even Isreal has recently change the government due to special religious group long time enjoy military service waiver in exchange for policical support to the right wing government.
If you know what Taiwan military is made of and you need to fight in the front line facing PLA, you will not make such a ridiculous analysis. No country will fight nuclear super power directly, not Japan, not Australia, not even the States. Taiwanese are totally on our own to survive the attack of PLA and this is the reality.
1. The WWII, US force skipped Taiwan because they prepared to invade Japan mainland. For Chinese, Taiwan Island is their main target.
2. The long range precision missles have limited amount and limited warhead payload. On the contrary, the missiles amount and land area proption between both sides makes Taiwan received far more damage than the Chinese not to mention PLA is the only force in the world continuously research on high radiation weapon. A retaliation on such kind of weapon is highly possible if the so called precision missles were use to attack on civilian target.
If the war beginning, there will be more than 10 million refugees in western Taiwan without electricity and clean water, food plus medicare. I just couldn't see any consideration about this part in your analysis... may be you are not live here to make such a ridiculous analysis...
4. I only can say your analysis on this part is against reality if you pay more attention on recent Taiwanese military diciplinary incidents. Taiwanese military servicemen will crash and surrender faster than the
PLA.
Keep it in mind the video did not account for Taiwanese strait is unsuitable for shipping during the month of July, August and September being Typhoon season.
Balanced nutritious breakfast
vs
Skipping breakfast and getting a snack later
(2018)
Yes
Well I know who wins for me
balanced nutriuous breakfast doesnt stand a chance agaisnt skipping breakfast and getting a snack later.....why ? because getting a snack later has been known to cheat when no ones looking,,,,,,is that a candy bar in your pocket? or are you just glad to see me.......LOL
I can't imagine the state of those landing sites after even a short time. All those stacked up mangled corpses.
The Battle of Kinmen would be a good example. So many dead communists that the Nationalist tanks ran out of bullets and straight up just started bulldozing communist soldiers alive.
@@molihua354 yeah and then they lost the war
@@whitneyhouston9879 The battle of Kinmen happened after the KMT retreated from the mainland, and the PRC was trying to make a final push to take Taiwan and thus crush the KMT. The victory of that battle along with the korean war distracting the PRC was one of the reasons that the KMT's occupation of Taiwan more or less stabilized. So in a sense the KMT had already lost the civil war when the battle of Kinmen happened.
Israel VS Arab League
Yeah, that would be pleasing.
@@nelsoncheng2674 Israel is stronger than all Arab Muslim countries
@@MrZakay yeah but we have economic warfare no oil no money no war no winning
Plus we have guerilla warfare like Vietnam and this now warfare that USA name terrorism it have good impact on people I mean look again at USA it full whit snowflakes
@@Nathan-cw7cb Yom Kippur war too
Yaron Zakay maybe this time Arab countries will change their strategy.
Spain vs Morocco
Specifically, can Morocco take Ceuta, Melilla, and the other "plazas de soberania."
The Jihadists would win!
Why? For what ?
India is with Taiwan.
Milk tea alliance, assemble!
Thank you, bro.
We freedom loving people support each other.
台湾印度都是傻逼
@@zhutupac6682 我是覺得亂罵別人的人比較笨啦
Xin-Tong Jiang
怎麼會跟提不出理由的認真呢
說不定他們連自己想支持誰的自由都沒有
Mongolia vs Austria
Xi Jinping : hummm, I think we need this Frog as our minister of war.
😀
Just get piglet
I partially disagree! I am not a fan of comparing modern land invasions with tactics of 1944, however I do think China would use a combination of cyber, space and long range missiles deployed from surface, destroyers, submarines and UAVs. I think China would firstly conduct a massive cyber attack targeting taiwanese electrical grids and other key infrastructure, space would be used to track Taiwanese troop movements and important military installations. China could then launch their massive medium range missiles destroying most military installations and troop movements within days. Simultaneously the Chinese air-force would rain down havoc on all taiwanese air assets and naval assets. Further, misinformation, hacking and local spies/spec ops would further confuse the Taiwanese and keep them busy with misinformation. Key areas would be designated to conduct an amphibious assault, those areas would me monitored by space satellites and surface to surface missiles, UAVs and jets would ensure Taiwanese assets on the ground are destroyed, after a week or two of such a campaign China would send in their marines and airborne troops, followed shortly by army infantry and logistics. Once all key infrastructure is destroyed and Tapei is near surrounded or under threat of complete annihilation the Taiwanese would call for a peace treaty. This would result in a Chinese victory and reunification.
Even though I support Taiwan I have to agree
This all sounds good until you realise Taiwan would have six months to prepare and would be supplied with American satellite info and coms. They also have spies in China and mobile missile defense in depth. Apaches, drones, mines, antiship missiles, large air force, antisubmarine, anti armour . .
How are Chinese going to sail through that exactly ?
China could wreck Taiwan but they will still not be able to land their troops. Chinese will suffer many casualties in any attack.
If US joins the fight the Chinese military would be completely wiped out.
@Bak Lava All of this was fully accounted for by Binkov, except for cyber attacks. Did you even watch the video? As for cyber attacks, public information is sensationalist and most people (like you) make ridiculous assumptions about their effectiveness. It's ridiculous to believe China could instantly disable an entire nation's infrastructure and cripple their defences with cyber attacks alone. Chinese hackers aren't wizards. They may be able to cause some disruption during a war but they wouldn't be able to do anything close to what you said in your post.
mrtaoroo have you read the art of war? Besides the point, most Chinese military infrastructure, bases and training are geared towards a war with Taiwan. I am not a fan of China, however let’s be realistic here, there is no way Taiwan would win. As for the US, their involvement would widen the conflict and change the dynamic of the war completely which is a unrelated topic.
I think of China's large number of missiles and submarines and aircraft carriers. But Taiwan's air defense density is one of the best in the world. As for the cyberattacks you said, I think this is a few years ago. My government has already noticed that it is closely guarding against the war in the corresponding war. I believe that countries Or anonymizers or top US Internet experts will support Taiwan to turn to attack China. Of course, Taiwan has been training network experts to ship and aircraft carriers at sea. Taiwan already has hundreds of anti-ship missiles to deal with, even if Taiwan is seriously damaged. There are still millions of reserve players in preparation for all the training for the Republic of China to ensure that the war is open. I believe that Taiwan is not alone because geographically and most of China are waiting to believe in the Chinese people.
Training is to prevent national security
ruclips.net/video/aJFzzohlBRg/видео.html&index=4&list=PL9rvsttoHe53evReMqiNZ_EJd626OTwW9
ruclips.net/video/08PUsD1F4PU/видео.html
為了中華民國🇹🇼我會奮戰到死
For the Republic of China🇹🇼, I will not hesitate to sacrifice my life.
有胸器 成王败寇！真正打起来就是一两天的事……
@@sakamototou6648 你為你國家奉命 我為我國家犧牲。只要是保家衛國的男人都是真男人
我只祈祷我们不会在战场上相见。。。愿天下太平
@@Mh-vt3qj 還是和平最好
朋友，现在怕就怕大陆还没开始武力收复台湾，中华民国就已经被搞成了台湾国了。
Now Imagine if the US did get involved one could say that Taiwan could push back into mainland
Just keep in mind that the same rules on amphibious invasions apply to counterattacks. And if history tells you anything, Communist China is pretty capable of pulling off surprises in conventional land warfare.
@@nicolasheung441 unless Trump gets his pal Putin to invade as well.
@@djayt1215 Seeing how things are, it's highly unlikely that Trump, or any POTUS for that fact, can drag Russia into a war with China these days. If Russian war making patterns say anything (mainly Putin warmaking patterns), Russia is more focused on minding their own businesses (reclaiming a Black sea port by annexing Crimea, Georgia, fighting Chechen insurgents, pummeling Syrian ISIS, etc). And as of now, Russia is way chummier with China than with the US (as if Russo-US relationships ever go good enough to buddy up and invade someone, even the situation in Syria is not the most easy one), and the US hardline Cold war approach meant that they probably won't buddy up to invade China in these times.
@@nicolasheung441 They wouldn’t do a offensive like in operation barbarossa, they would most probably eliberate Taiwan with the help of japan,Australia and other countries and after the Taiwan is free, they would begin sending SOF and SF units to China to do sabotage (like hunting HVTs, sabotage and other type of operations) and us air force would be responsible for striking targets in China (SAM sites,airfields,factories (to destroy the economy), military bases and other targets.US navy would be responsible for securing the Sea like blocking china’s ships to destroy their eceonomy, fighting china’s navy, marines would deploy to the islands in order to capture them and hold them. So this plan would probably be successful, but us Air Force and navy would be half destroyed in this war, same for many casualities on infantry due to the Taiwan front.
@@poorman4923 This sounds exactly like how the US would've operate in such a scenario. You are correct that the US would've avoid a Barbarossa scenario at all costs, opting for sabotage, assassinations, surgical strikes, and naval blockades after liberating Taiwan with the aid of a coalition.
Then again, China seems to have been reading the US playbook and geared themselves for it. A2/AD has been one of the most boasted capabilities the PLA has been touting, and there is no doubt regarding how far and effective the authoritarian regime can go securing it's internal security. Facial recognition, police state, mass incarceration, and mass indoctrination, the usuals. Furthermore, unlike other regimes US has successfully defeated, China actually have something to show to their people, it is not particularly easy to conduct sabotage and subversive activities in the numbers required to destabilize China (think"Sharp eyes", the Chinese civil surveillance program that reports criminal activities to local authorities).
There is little doubt that a Taiwan liberating coalition can succeed, given that everyone involved in the coalition are ready to pay the hefty price that will come with such operations. But beyond that, it is anyone's guess in terms of military capabilities, and one must take note that there were attempts by the US and Taiwan between 1950s and 1960s in sabotaging the newly founded PRC. That didn't went well.
Based on an interview which is mentioned on a Taiwanese Channel, they mentioned that they might only survive for 2 weeks. It mentioned that China will not start attacking Taiwan immediately, but surrounding the island before the war starts
One more thing. When I play this senario with my peers, he pointed out that China got enough close range smart DF ballistic missiles and mobile launch platforms deployed towards Taiwan(about 150-200 per strike) to over whleam her air defense net work, and take out all 12 PAC-3 Radars (even if counting these PAC-2 launch plateforms they are able to guide) in first strike, as long as they only target Radars and command structres, granting environment for total airsupermancy.
The sock raises some good points
Do you forget about Three Gorges Dam? Taiwan has been aiming it with missiles.
Their missiles cant reach it
If so, this could be a BIG news, because if that dam is breached, then the amount of water it holds can flood almost all of mainland China
@@ohuyou1512 None of their missiles can even reach the three gorges dam.
@@alexzhangdragonn3438Alright im just saying IF they do
@Esphaeras Praestans No they dont, did you not watch the video? Taiwans missiles only have the range to hit Chinas coast. The Three Gorges Dam is out of their weak missiles range. And if they did hit the Three Gorges dam China would quickly send in bombers and annihilate the rest of that rogue army. Russia and China are friends. And India has nothing to do with this and wont do anything. If India tries to waste its time it will risk losing Kashmir to Pakistan.
What about the weather that China only has an open window of like two months in March and again in October to attack Taiwan because of the mansoon in the South China Sea????
@Peiran Zhang Short wave radar can say B-2 is coming, but it cant find their exact location to shoot them down, its useless.
@Peiran Zhang Settle down Colonel
I feel like Chinese moral would be high at first but as they struggle to take the smaller islands and then fail to take Taiwan moral would fall drastically.
Binkov's Battlegrounds you really know your stuff 🤝 awesome.
Heyyyy... I have an idea... Maybe you could make videos about historic war scenarios ? Like what if Persians ALL OUT invaded Roman Empire in 50 AD...
Just an idea... but that seems interesting.
He's done some. ruclips.net/video/HTUoOucADi8/видео.html Rome vs. Han China is one that popped up in my sidebar and there are more as well.
next: Taiwan invades China
Thats funny
No fucken way Taiwan will be able to place solders on Chinese soil. Taiwan lacks Transport and will not be able to secure a beachhead.
Your comment is a joke my friend. I'm sorry
Draco it’s is a joke
Thata a joke. Unless there is a massive riot in the mainland.
Only in 1950~1970
No amount of ethnic nationalism would ever make me want to live in a world with an evil camera on every street corner threatening anyone who dares to have independent thoughts.
Lash LaRue I would hate to live in this distopia do u have a name for it?
@@socialistteletubby3642 Yes: "Xinjiang province". (See also, "1984".)
Hell you are living in one of these countries, take a look around at America, she is going down for the third and final time!
@@hermanfurlong8824 Hurr, turk a lirk arnound, jerr lurvin derp n’mericur!! Ders are also derr too!! Hurr!
This comment is gonna reduce your social credit score
For me, the deciding factor is Taiwan's will to fight, and fight hard.
ROC China now Taiwan defeated the Qing empire& in WW2 ROC China now Taiwan actually did most of the fighting vs Japan, Mao colluded with Japan as exposed by Professor Homare Endo of Tokyu university. Then agrarian ROC China-now Taiwan was fighting WW2 with industrialised Japan for yrs longer& suffered huge casualties before Stalin armed Mao. I am part Polish-Ukrainian, but happy to say WW2 arguably started in ROC China yrs earlier. They deserve far more credit than they get especially in WW2 memorials& events!, this would help boost their morale& hopefully encourage more training for their regulars& reserves.
Weather could play a part in paratroop drops and landing ops. Love these videos
Yea supposedly there's only 2 months out of the year that an invasion can happen, op forgot Taiwan is a typhoon season country, and he also didn't include anything about sea mines. There would be thousands of them, each very capable of taking down a ship
Sorry, not buying it.
I really don't think a WWII comparison applies much any more - if you were to use your style of analysis on say gulf Wars I and II you would be convinced that there was no way that 500-600,00 US and allied troops could take out a million Iraqis in anything less than a year, yet the Iraqis were roflstomped within two weeks of each campaign being started.
You also never take into account public sentiment and civilian morale, which is in fact 90% of the equation. The Japanese in WWII were beaten by the start of 1944 but it took another 18 months and two nukes to convince them that any further resistance was futile. OTOH doing your analysis on say Vietnam or Afghanistan would yield a conclusion that the US would win in a month. The RAND Corporation would totally agree with you !
Taking this scenario, my best guess is that the Chinese would stomp Taiwan from the air then start round the clock air attacks on key civilian and military infrastructure while maintaining a total blockade of the coasts. With no assurance that the US or NATO would show up within the next 12 months Taiwan would collapse into chaos or suffer a coup in very short order, with the new government (if any) pressing for the best possible terms within the new Chinese sphere (a la Hong King).
I'd say 6-8 weeks tops from first missile to cease fire.
Moral of the roc troops are also low. The conscripts don't like being there owning to the military past as a dictorial suppression force. Polls indicate many would rather surrender than fight a pointless, unwinnable war. After all the prc isn't some alien culture, it's a very similar culture.
@@mxn1948 Actually polls showed that most taiwanese are willing to fight to defend Taiwan.
@@KathyXie lmao yeah only happens in survey poll lmao
@@muchaho8378 If they bombed civilian houses, people would be more likely to fight. The whole island would be a battlefield
@@worldofsouls6171 lmao no you need to talk to some real people mate then youll figure out they are just a bunch pussies
this is how KMT think in 1945-1949.
lol
lol
lol
lol
lol
It’s almost like invading a castle you have to have a 3-1 advantage to siege
Binkov, a video on Malaysia vs Indonesia, please. Thank you very much.
It will only boil down to Indonesia incursion into serawak using infantry or light vehicle. Invading malaka would be next to impossible considering the size of Indonesia's navy
@Ren indonesia also has head hunting tradition, i guess it is from dayak people, since they are basically culturally similiar. But that would be certainly interesting :D
Indonesia is the clear winner. They have air superiority utilising haze tactic. We gonna get hazed to death boys.
GANYANG SINGAPURA!
@@Kayzegram Yeah,but they wouldn't be able to take mainland(Malaya)cause their navy is too weak.Cant do any landings.
What I really like about this is the absence of any assumptions about third party intervention.
I believe that a significant number of Chinese ships will be sunk by US submarines, guaranteed.
A UK submarine may also be on station. And in a few years, the Australian subs which they are now buying.
Add in cruise missiles launched from waters east of Taiwan which pop up over the mountains with less than a minute to go before striking a Chinese ship in the strait.
UPDATE: Taiwan is getting some Abrams.
Abrams are bloody awful.
@@JacenSolo0 Bloody awful compared to what? This would make an early T-80 "bloody awful" as well (still able to demolish T-62's). Both would make mincemeat of amphibious or light vehicles.
@@JacenSolo0 M1A2s are excellent.
@@JacenSolo0 Based on what? You dont like the shape? .... moron...
And some stingers too
Improbable
Invading Taiwan would mean China would have to recognize it
That makes no sense at all.
It does, because they don't recognize Taiwan as their own country
According to the Taiwan military channel that I often watch, Taiwanese military are confident that they can hold their island for at least a week, some critic in Taiwan says that they can last 3 days would be a miracle...
China has no chance to even traverse the island in a week
@@Markus-zb5zd attack their electrical system and oil reserves internally and through cyber attack.then china wouldn't even have to land its troop.taiwan will drain it's self in chaos
Really good one. The quality of your content gets improved by every video that I see!Could you maybe make an video about the battle of Raqqa, when for example aroun 300-500 IS terrorists captured a city that was defended by around 20.000 Iraqi soldiers? I really wonder how such a thing was possible.
Vietnam vs China
Dis happened.
Dave William .....It's unnecessary to compare it....
Dreha Gergerg Dreaming？？？
@Dreha Gergerg Did it? Last I checked, Vietnam ended up losing some territories which paved the way to the further conflict in the area widely known as SCS. Furthermore, it was but a phony war, Deng Xiaoping used to consolidate his position. Later he ended up being the Paramount Leader. Those funny coincidences, really...
Btw, didn't Vietnamese navy royally lose against Chinese maritime militia many times -- ended up losing reefs and ships as well as soldiers?
@@Pallandokenos the Chinese coast guard outweighs the combined navies of all asean counties so there's very little Vietnam could do on the seas.
This video is nearly three years old - needs updating.
I’ve been a student of the Chinese-Taiwan direct military conflict for years.... and I’ve got to say it’s still very difficult to determine who would “win” that conflict. This video is a good but very oversimplification- Taiwan’s lack of a meaningful submarine fleet is a strategic error of Hugh proportions and can be corrected if Taiwan had the will. Additionally, both sides have extensive spy networks and embedded saboteurs. Taiwan has a small “secret” force of SRBM to hold Chinese economic and military sites at risk. Taiwan would need at least between 1-3 super tankers worth of refined POL just to keep its armed forces viable. The economy impact to China would be horrific. Nearly 200 commercial aircraft transit the Straights per day and over 400 commercial ships a month. It’s hard to fathom this conflict with “neutral” partners since this conflict would I,pact over 1 trillion dollars worth of trade.
In WW2 the Royal Navy was far bigger than the Nazi Kriegsmarine which used naval guerilla tactics with wolfpacks which reaked havoc, BUT this was usually in the deep Atlantic, the Taiwanese Strait is on average 50 meters deep& too shallow for subs, like the English channel which mostly Nazi subs avoided due to minefields& the risk of quick destruction in relatively shallow water by the Royal navys aerial & ship based sub hunters. Taiwan will likely use its 4 subs to help gaurd its flanks, but if Taiwans navy was to engage immediately in a invasion it would do so mostly in the strait?. My grandad was a Commander in the battle of the Atlantic vs mainly wolfpacks in what was the longest allied battle vs the Nazis a wound he got in WW2 finally did him in the mid 1980s. Nazis had no real hope of invading Britain even when alone.
If you think Iam wrong about the strait negating most sub warfare please do say, during WW2 ROC China now Taiwan actually did most of the fighting vs Japan & Mao even colluded with Japan as exposed by Professor Homare Endo of Tokyu university. Then agrarian ROC China-now Taiwan was fighting WW2 with industrialised Japan for yrs longer& suffered huge casualties before Stalin armed Mao. I am part Polish-Ukrainian but happy to say WW2 arguably started in ROC China yrs earlier.
Can you do a video on how a modern day version of the Sino Vietnam war of 1979 would play out?
Yes. Vietnam begs for mercy the same day
Taiwan maintains the status quo of autonomy is the best, guarantees Russia, South Korea, Japan, Canada, the United States, Southeast Asia trade routes, and also safeguards the US military strategy in the Western Pacific, and relatively protects China's coastal areas. Taiwan blocks the US-China military collision.
Taiwan is a race traitor, they are working for the white men to keep Chinese down, for this reason they will be destroyed.
@@lppoqql China betrayed Taiwan in 1895.
@@lppoqql PLA is busy throwing stones at India.
@@book775533 PLA can mobilize up to 30 million soldiers, Taiwan is helping white men block China's raise, they betray their own race. I hope PLA wipe out all anti-Chinese "Taiwanese" within 2 years.
Taiwan is not an autonomy～Educate yourself before you come onto RUclips～
Let’s not forget the one thing the Taiwanese have over China and that’s universal military support from the US. In 1953 when mao originally tried to invade the island, not only was the US fleet stationed right in between the two, but the US passed legislation that would give Taiwan complete US military support and commitment to fight China directly in the event of a Chinese invasion, which still stands to this day.
The one thing you didn't mention is that in such a war China would be self blockading itself as ships going to and from chinese ports could be targeted by Taiwan. This would collapse the chinese economy so if they attack they wouldn't be operating on a months long time scale but days and weeks.
Thanks i feel much better about living in taiwan, i think.
hahaha. see you soon man. I will go there also. by tank
@@zhangchris1278 呵，等你
Stop dreaming,nerd.You can come to Taiwan by tank only in the games.lol
Yep, I am team Taiwan!!!!!!
Wahaha zhang 哎～Since 1949 still waiting for you.but nothing I can see
You need to re-do this video considering all the development of new hardware.
The fact that this one year timeline is already so tight shows that rearming and refortifying Kinmen is a good bet for the Taiwanese military, preferably with older and lower quality equipment just to delay the invasion
Actually China doesn’t even have to “conquer” . Numerous missiles can destroy majority of tw’s government building and military bases.
With China's latest drones, jets and missiles working with embedded PRC troops within the Taiwanese army? Probably a week at the most.
"freedom and democracy" will make US help Taiwan👆👆
Dex4Sure 醒醒
You ignore that Taiwan has long range ballistic missiles. Red China has a huge number of targets. The economic destruction that Taiwan could inflict would be like 30% of China's GDP, which would be vastly more than China would be willing to pay.
@Dex4Sure fool
The key question is how much the Taiwanese are willing to fight.
A lot. They are willing to fight a lot.
It depends, if the Chinese attack first and hard there's no way the Taiwanese won't fight
Hello there! I am a Taiwanese.To be honest, if the Chinese People's Liberation Army wants to invade Taiwan, it needs a large number of military sources. His transfer will be first seen by Taiwan or the United States satellites, because they will first occupy the Golden Gate and Mazu, and need to mobilize a large number of soldiers in Fujian and Xiamen. Long-range artillery, missiles, air force, and navy, according to US experts, up to 60 days, including the island of Jinmen Island in Xiamen, the island of Binge Island and the island of Liangshan, the front line of Taiwan’s national army, only from Xiamen 2 kilometers will be observed, so Taiwan will have time to prepare. When the war starts, China will first surround Jinmen and Mazu, and then land, and the National Artillery Battalion in Mazu has US-made 240mm heavy artillery. 8 guns will be attacked at the Fujian airport and station, and then the Chinese fleet will use the naval fleet to cut off the supply lines of Kinmen and Matsu, and finally destroy the Golden Army and Mazu national army!
I am in favor of the Nacionalist Party. I love democracy, so as in Taiwan
@Tee See come back here in 5-10 years later , see me LMAO on you.
Tee See that's not my name on passport. I can named myself whatever I like. now you playing personal absue? my little Chinesehater. LOL... you are so low
@Tee See ohhhh~~ again kind of rumors without evidence. Trust me, Trump is much much good at it than you do, so save it. LOL
Binkov with the current news can we get an altered version with China Vs Taiwan including most of their likely allies?
Pretty accurate analysis in my opinion , many believe that a PLA victory is a given, but that is simply not true
McDonalds verses Burger King. Employee's become warriors.
McDonalds have security guards with gun sometimes, so they will shoot the BK employees
Imagine a NATO style triple alliance between S.Korea, Japan and Taiwan. That would be pretty dominant
Imagine,south korea and japan help taiwan to prevent china invade but suddenly north korea invade seoul,that would be epic :p
@@sueboy3701 yeah that's how it gonna happen.
@@sueboy3701 that would be horrible for North Korea and China...by attacking South Korea they would break the Armistice and restart the Korean war, thus bringing the United States and all of our allies into the war and thus start WW3 if China doesn't retreat from Taiwan and get North Korea to back down, but I doubt by that point the war would be stoppable...
Then a quadriplegic alliance from China Pakistan Iran and turkey.hows that.
@@zarnigarsheerabi2516 quadriplegic? HAHAHAHA yes i have to agree it would be quadriplegic
You definitely need to update this analysis.
Wow, well done buddy.. you got a new subscriber 😀
Poland vs Ukraine.
If weared off Ukrainian army got tangled up in a war with Poland in the west, Russia would just rape it and obliterated it from the east.
With hungarian help
Now now i thought you were friends.
@@gordonferrar7782 Well you see, it's been quite shady. Bandera, UPA and stuff.
@@gordonferrar7782 But you can't trust the Russian either, so...
Taiwan have much more resources than you can imagine...😎
@Sean Yee nup, those dont help in this situation, you big dummy
@Sean Yee don't drag India into this.
The America Daddy !!
@John Wang Yes, you are right. Taiwan NumbErrrr 1.
LJ Ren I suggest we must drag India into this form a military alliance with India 🇮🇳 (as China are best friends with Pakistan)& USA 🇺🇸 Taiwan will be 100% save...
Considering how the US/NATO chose not to get involved (directly) in Ukraine beyond giving weapons and supplying intel, I now cannot see why anyone believes the US (despite it having committed to defending Taiwan) would actually follow through and initiate combat between US and Chinese forces. If the US is too scared to fight Russia because of the threat of nuclear war when there is actual war literally in Europe, it makes no sense to think the US would help Taiwan, which is nowhere near the US or any other Western countries.
I think the US would end up thinking "it's not worth it" and let China have its way. Plus Taiwan is an island so it would be practically impossible to arm Taiwan from the outside. Also, it's not like Ukraine where both sides are using more or less the same equipment and thus can easily capture each other's tanks for their own use.
I'm also not sure I agree with the idea that an amphibious landing would be practically impossible. China could just bomb/missile strike Taiwan into oblivion and then invade once it is essentially scorched earth. If people think China wants TSMC or something then they are obviously naive. China ended up not caring about Hong Kong's financial center. They imposed crazy national security laws anyway (and drove out a lot of talent) because being in control (for the CCP) will always be more important than a few dollars here and there.
im pretty sure the us is required to defend Taiwan and I bet south korea/ japan will. amphibious landings are really really hard even with tons of bombing like in ww2.
Bangladesh vs myanmar please
yes i agree with you
Save the Rohingya people!
a lul.
@Reduanul Islam give Rohingya Bangladeshi citizenship if they are really your brother
Bangladesh will have advantage because of their huge population
I think you should do Civil war.
There are many Civil war that you can do. It would be interesting.
For example, US vs California (Calexit) or Spain vs Catalonia
I honestly tell you this video is a civil war. The people's republic of China and the republic of China (which is know as taiwan here) has never signed a crease fire treaty or peace treaty. It won't be an invasion if either side attacks cause technically the civil war of China has never ended.
Us civil war would be over Biden's vaccine mandate.
Great video!
One thing I was wondering about - I wonder if other **Asian** countries would come to the aid of Taiwan?
Maybe South Korea? Japan?
If both of **those** countries became involved then China would have BIG problems!
I think Japan definitely would. It has too much to lose if Taiwan is gone. Taiwan is their only ally although unofficially. China and the Koreans hate them. lol
Tee See you can’t compare Crimea to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States has already committed to Taiwan so much militarily and economically.
@Tee See US will never sacrifice their marine(s)..
Vietnam, Afghanistan, Irag entered the chat room.
Tee See I know US politics. We will never allow the psychotic chinese government to rule the world. And that starts with Taiwan. Americans HATE china, because their government is an authoritarian human rights abusing imperialist power. We won’t need to send our military, just our Navy would fuck you guys up like there’s no tomorrow. Go ahead. Try us.
Don't forget India.
We need an UPDATE. Any changes from 2018 ?
What about electricity and fuel? Does Taiwan produce enough fuel or have enough of it stocked to keep the electricity plants running and to keep the trucks running that are needed for general supply? If China made a surprise attack on Taiwan's electricity network, and Taiwan would be out of electricity for most of the time, how would that influence its combat capabilities?
I suppose so, but then Taiwan would likely knock out quite a bit of China's power. Three Gorges Dam might be a juicy target!
You forgot Taiwan’s 2 million reservists.
You forgot China ' s 1 billion reservist.
Actually, the reservist force numbers are the following:
510,000 and 660,000 paramilitary force.
They could only hope to get 1.17 million, thus making the estimate of 1 billion overinflated.
@@war3replay suicide to its people just like mao and stalin did
Seeing how the Republic of China (i.e. Taiwan) still claims the mainland, why don't they free Tibet? It would gain them some allies.
As well as Hong Kong and S China Sea. China is diplomatically and militarily in the toilet in Asia. They've even offended Russia. How's the trade war and Covid-19 working for them? Can't grow much food on the Spratleys. Looks like N Korea and China will have something else in common. Starvation! What does it matter as long as Kim and Xi are full?
Tibet can also be Taiwan Chinese special forces' foothold for infiltrating Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia to sabotage "PL"A and strategic logistics there as well as recruit very willing Resistance to Communist China's rule among Uighurs, Tibetans and Inner Mongolians.
@@ralphrice3644 The Hong Kongese have every reason to be the most ardent recruits as Resistance members for Taiwan's Chinese special forces to crash-train as saboteurs against Communism's logistics in South China. Along with Inner Mongolian, Uighur and Tibetan fronts similarly established through India's Tibetan front by Taiwan Chinese special forces transported there by Quad Allies for the purpose of infiltration of Communist China, the Hong Kong South China front can erode large amounts of Communist China's logistics and, further raise more Resistance to Communist rule within continental China's provinces and townships and establish provisional free government therein and represent those provinces and townships to the Republic of China currently seated in Taiwan.
In a way China kinda had invaded Taiwan if you count The Han Chinese colonizers stealing the land from The Austronesian Taiwanese Aboriginals
China already invaded Taiwan several hundred years ago. Now different groups of Chinese are fighting for control over the island. There are three main groups of Chinese; firstly, there are the Chinese Communists, who already control Mainland China and believe that annexing Taiwan will strengthen their legitimacy; secondly, there are the Chinese Nationalists, who still believe that they are the true representatives of China and view Taiwan as the last bastion of a "Free China"; and thirdly, there are the Chinese who believe that Taiwan is or should be an independent country, and these people like to call themselves "Native Taiwanese".
By the logic of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Nationalist Party, the Native Taiwanese are, in fact, native to Taiwan. However, both Chinese governments consider the Native Taiwanese to be a subgroup of the Han Chinese, not an independent ethnic group. Most Native Taiwanese families have been living in Taiwan for several centuries, whereas others have been living in Taiwan for over a century. They are culturally Chinese, in terms of language, cuisine, social values, and mannerisms, but the Native Taiwanese no longer identify strongly as Chinese because they have been politically disconnected from Mainland China since 1895, which was a long time ago.
Also, Taiwan is geographically a large island, so the Native Taiwanese have often not been in contact with Mainland China for centuries, even when Taiwan was united with Mainland China under the Qing Dynasty. Because Taiwan has plentiful resources, the Taiwanese did not need to return to Mainland China in order to acquire supplies. Also, the Taiwanese did not have very significant roles in Chinese politics, meaning that most Native Taiwanese have lived continuously in Taiwan for centuries without visiting Mainland China very often, if at all. Even though Taiwan is now wealthy and urbanised, it was originally China's smallest province, and one of its most rural provinces.
It would be fascinating to see an updated scenario, after four years and hundreds of billions in Chinese military spending but China's egregious diplomacy post Xi will have surely added to the forces it will now face .
*South Korea vs Japan pleasseee thiisss is good.*
JXV 10s ruclips.net/video/GNBhAAMc2Hk/видео.html
Yhea
JXV 10s Why would Japan and South Korea go to war?
Japan would destory s. Korea.
as a chinese, i support korea. japan will hit their karma
Lawrence Wong I sense biase...
gives me the feeling that the island is defended by 23 milllions hard core Chechens...
In 2016 Tokyo war game, the team China just perform an outright blockade and took out the U.S. duel arrier group to force an surrender.
Sounds interesting. Can you post a link to some material on it? I didn't know of any such wargame.
@@egoalter1276 Heard about it on the War on the rocks show. warontherocks.com/
Apperent the host of that wargame keep lecturing his students at Naval War Academy about how much team China loose that game. Its the kinda of war game for professional international relation scholars.
Meanwhile if you mix Tokyo with War and game, well that'd clash with tons of adult content, which make some humble scholar's work hard to find. So if you find something about that wargame, do share.
The US navy would completely destroy the weak Chinese navy with ease. It wouldn't even be a competition, it was be a slaughter of Chinese ships being destroyed.
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor That'd ture if they fight at open sea. Which they will not. The sum of medium range missile platforms China has can safely shuts down all US air base in range for at least 48 hours, opening the carrier groups up for a Peral Habour level strike from land based PLAAF.
Fascinating. This is like infographics
But better
You know who would win in this conflict? Murica that's who!
在太陽花運動抗議的學生，多數並不清楚，在他們出生時刻、或是他們的童年，兩岸曾屢次陷入戰火的邊緣，當他們長大後，也就絲毫感受不到兩岸的和平，其實十分珍貴。
【台灣】2025年前的台海戰役
讓我很擔心的是，目前台灣無論在政界或在軍中，沒有人見過或經歷過實際的戰爭，年輕一代，更是想像戰爭和電玩類似，無從對其後果有全面認真的思考，軍方也許知道，但是不會對百姓大眾說明白。
從小家住在新北投火車站旁，由北投到新北投是只有一節的柴油車，八二三炮戰那年，我在北投初中唸初一，還記得初秋時，連續有很多天，半夜時非常的喧嘩，有長達十多節車箱的火車停在新北投站，不停的往山上陸軍醫院北投分院運送傷員。
不久後就我被選為學生代表之一，去醫院慰問傷員，那次的經歷是我一生忘不掉的，絕大部份的傷員都是四肢不全的重傷患，意識清省的都不多，讓我深深的感到了戰爭的可怕。
如今軍中的高階將領當時可能才出生，蔡英文女士更是尚未出生，如何能瞭解到戰爭的可怕？那是近六十年前，共軍只能用大砲轟擊金門，就造了這麼大的社會代價，以今日共軍的實力，如有戰爭發生更是後果比八二三嚴重幾百倍。
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5年後的解放台灣戰爭.又會死多少人呢?
國防部官員曾向立法院報告，中共攻台的第一波戰爭，我軍傷亡人數估計為12萬8千人 !
2005年軍方的機密評估，台海一旦開戰，7天內台灣軍民死亡高達24萬人(921大地震死亡人數的整整100倍)
Support Taiwan, Taiwan is actually an army island, not easy to invade. We all know that right side is Taiwan.
Strategically, there are two things that should not happened to you when you are at war : First is being an islander, second is being a flat desert like Iraq, Lybia and Syria : If you don't own a good airforce and anti access SAM system, your ass will be bombed to oblivion. That's what happened to Saddam Hussein and Muamar Kadhafi : their army got pin down, while their enemy could move freely under the cover of air superiority ...
Taiwan is an island located a few miles off shore mainland china, and all of above is applied to her ...
Chinese military was made in computer, don’t believe what Chinese say, if you support Taiwan, please say:”台湾南坡湾” it mean Taiwan was best.