Can industrial output decide US v China war?
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- Опубликовано: 17 май 2024
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The video explores industrial output in China and US. Both present one and future, potential one. How much could current commercial industry help the military in a long war? How much can a blockade of China impact its industrial output?
00:00 Intro
02:32 Past examples
06:56 Shipbuilding
09:32 Aircraft & missiles
14:38 Economic impact
16:33 Raw materials
18:34 Semiconductors
20:14 Output over time
Music by Matija Malatestinic www.malatestinic.com
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Submarines are the gameplay equivalent of cancer for World of Warships. They killed my interest in the game and this video.
@molonianmediacenter6787 kinda sad that you let arbitrary numerical values in a video game determine what you can or can't watch on RUclips
Since "only real 🕊️ can bring us all together", can you please cover the fundamental unsustainability of ongoing arms races and wars seeing as these armies simply cannot be decarbonized in any sane outlook. It's insane how hardly anybody addresses that horrifying truth.
one note old large chip comsumes more power , bigger battery and reduces the range , tesla has the sma problem with self drawing cars
I'm shocked at the incredible difference in quality between Chinese topic comments and Russian topic comments.
Wonder why that is...
I think a lot of wumaos are Chinese who went to college or grad school in the West. They tried to get jobs that would sponsor them for visas, but they were deemed unworthy. Now they’re stuck in the crappy job of wumao, dreams crushed. Their fervor is driven by their vendetta at being personally rejected.
Also, many of the English-proficient Russians have left Russia.
You are asking the right question.
@@yopyop3241 You r everywhere
I honestly struggle to see any difference.
In Chinese comment sections, I find:
"made in china crap. just like there other products"
and in Russian comment sections:
"more russian junk. i doubt it could shoot down anything"
If the outcome of a war was determined by comparison of numbers, the war in Afghanistan would not have lasted 20 years.
The "war" was over quickly. What lasted 20 years was a violent occupation. There is a difference.
If you make the same argument but highlight Japan instead, it looks good.
Big difference between conventional war and guerilla war
Big difference between winning and ruling. U.S. doesn't have the ability nor the interest to occupy mainland China forever, but it can sure defeat China in any battle anywhere.
so true Talibans won with no industry at all. Just hardcore warriors.
The Electronics needed for simple drones are available in the US, just not the most advanced microchips. I could imagine texas instruments turning their calculators into flight computers 😂
Imagine trying to go across the planet against the largest Navy, army and the largest drone manufacturing corporation on Earth with 70 year old boats and some flying calculators. I suggest that keep those calculators and add it up again.
Except Texas Instruments makes missiles for the DoD, like the AGM 88 HARM and Javelin.
@@wheneggsdrop1701 research dong fengs. Analysts say that this missile has rendered aircraft carriers as useless. It's a hypersonic missile systems and there is no comprehensive defense for it. Furthermore you want to take them head on in China with flying calculators and ancient missiles. Don't do this to the rest of us. Get your ish together first please. Some of us didn't ask to be here for your bullshit
Look flying calculators are more advanced than flying washing machines
Why would India be upset by China being blocked? They could seize the opportunity to take on that production business.
The Chinese and Indian economy are connected just as America is connected to the Chinese.
India is too backward in comparison to China.
India's export is heavily dependent on the import from China. Just look at how much India's export increase and how much it's import from China has increased.
@@GM-xk1nwIndia have fought wars China hasn't only some sneaky attacks
If China is blocked, basically half of world cannot get regular products and consumption items that’s made in China. There’s no blockade that selective let people access to Chinese goods while preventing Chinese receiving foreign goods. A total blockade means all trade parties suffer, and let me tell you that’s a lot of countries. So total blockade is not something on the book even in war games.
Both nations have a responsibility to make sure this never happens.
They do. But have they ever actually acted responsibly in the last few decades?
@@SeaforgedArtifacts
Both USA and China have done remarkably awful things.
But it is harder for the Chinese to organize a large enough protest that is within the restraints of the government’s will.
Well one does…
@@SeaforgedArtifactsyes, i think it's pretty responisble that the US for example never started a nucelear war.
yeah but taiwan is a lost chinese territory that is under the americans soo..
You are way too optimistic on how fast and how much weapon production would expand. We don't know much about China but in US we know it's definitely not the case. Modern weapon systems are way more sophisticated than WWII counterparts and most of them require highly specialized expertise which US does not have enough and won't be able to train more fast enough. Congress have been trying to up shipbuilding capacity of surface combatants and nuclear subs for years but now they are told it can't be done even with the money they throw at ship yards. F-15EX was supposed to be a cheap and fast supplement to at that time troubled F-35 project. But now with F-35 finally well on its track, Boeing still delivers fewer F-15EX every year than Russian delivers Su-57 which itself is already a joke. 5000 planes production in 4th year? That's unless Willie Wonka decides to tip his toe in aeroindustry.
yeah good luck recruiting US housewives and grandmas into weapon factory to make more F-35s. This generation don't even know where a pencil comes from
USA won World War 2 because their industry output was No. 1. Durig WW2, for every tank destroyed, aircraft shot down and ammo used, US industry can easily replace them in days. This is not the case now, sending ammo to Ukraine is slow because the industry output cannot keep up with the rate of ammo used. There is possibilities that some raw material for the weapons also need to get from China.
agreed, but on the other hand, China has major deficiencies in oil, gas, food - most raw materials really. If the imports are stopped - which is not that hard given US allies in the region, the Chinese nation has mere months before collapsing
US has been stockpiling weapons for 50-70 years....thousands of Tomahawk missiles, hundreds of HIMARS launchers, etc. Even if it doesn't build anything for 20-30 years, it'll still have a material advantage.
Also, China's industrial base is because it has the USA as their biggest customer. WWII US did not have Japan as their biggest industrial customer...
The US is technologically superior, in many cases by half a century. That's how it wins wars now. China can't defend against stealth bombers and nuclear attack subs, period.
@@nutellacreep The US admits it would largely run out of ammo or be critically short (unable to continue projecting power) within 2 weeks of war breaking out with China. The US dropped 13 billion kg of conventional explosives in WW2. That's ~70 million himars gmlrs and 15 million tomahawk block 5s (I'm using the two weapon platforms you mentioned). The US produces 7500 gmlrs per year and 58 tomahawk missiles. Even if they were able to increase production (they wouldn't be able to) it'd cost $12 trillion for the himars missiles and $29 trillion for the tomahawks. To think we have anywhere close to those amounts on hand is foolish.
@@nazcamain GMLRS and Tomhawks are expensive stand-off weapons. If we are to do an apples-to-apples comparison, the WW2 bombs are more similar to cheaper JDAM bombs. But JDAMs have some degree of guidance, so much less of them are needed compared to WW2 type weapons.
I mean, you're basically saying WW2 USA can defeat modern USA. It might be true, but I'm not so sure if it is true.
Can you make a video about a hypothetical war between the New York National Guard and the Canadian Army?
hypothetical
It would certainly be hypocritical.
Those saying hypothetical are In denial
@bryf2787 Whoops, glad you pointed that out, lol
lmao@@hannahdyson7129
Hey Binkov, are you okay? You don’t sound as energetic as before.
He is three guys so I think he is okay
Have you seen the recent updates on Ukraine? Most of them are feeling down. Macron is threatening to send troops into Russia. The last time a French leader did that he ended up falling in Waterloo.
I think he’s just much more serious as these moved from hypothetical situations to possible events and referring ongoing war(s).
It correlates with the Ukraine updates.
Ukrajina shilling rekt him.
Reading these comments, I'm getting one major feeling. The American public vastly underestimates China. We did the same thing with Japan during WWII, which turned out to be a grueling, 4 year long grind in some of the worst conditions imaginable against an incredibly determined and capable enemy. However, unlike Japan of the 1940s, China is an industrial powerhouse with the possible ability to match or at least compete with US war production. A war between China and the US would be disastrous for both sides.
We underestimated Japan? A nation that was inferior in every respect militarily and never stood a chance from the beginning? If anything we overestimated Japan and hammered them harder than anyone would have expected to be possible in the 1940s to wage a war on the other side of the planet to the scale that we did.
For God's sake during one naval engagement 9 u.s aircraft carriers deployed 300 attack aircraft against a single Japanese battleship which was insane overkill for that time.
I will note however that China is a very different beast militarily but in a full on shooting war between the two nations it would be largely one sided because China can't project power far from its own borders militarily and they would need to be careful of their neighbors whom they have spent decades pissing off
wrong, only for one side. Guess which one?
@@dominuslogik484 Мы им поможем, вобще давно ждем термоядерной перестрелки. Всь русский народ мечтает о термоядерной войне с Западам. Учитыва плотность населения размен будет 1 к 10. Запад будет уничтожен.
@@josefcibulka2198we’re very confident you’re wrong 😁
Thanks for putting chapters in! Really helps!
Before China has chance to win, China has to push US outside 2nd island chain. China main industry is along coast line. Outside 2nd island chain, it means pretty much outside US missile attacking range.
How do they get there in the first place 😂
Impossible as that would mean war with Japan and South Korea too
Binkov. U needed to make this video longer to explain how US blockade ships survived Chinese anti ship missiles as the blockade or not of China hugely influences trade in/out adding to production
Anti-ship missiles can’t protect merchant shipping. Do you have any idea how easy it is to interdict a modern merchant cargo vessel? Dinky little boats are all it takes. Inflatable boats with outboard motors can do the job. Missiles that can go from Chinese soil to the Malacca Strait vs the number of dinky little boats that the US and its allies can get into the Malacca Strait- who do you think wins that battle?
For China to succeed in running the blockade would require Chinese military escort ships. All the way to the trade destination. But those escort ships would probably get sunk long before they could even get past the First Island Chain. And even if they survived that far, the Chinese escort ships wouldn’t have enough fuel to perform an escort mission beyond the First Island Chain, anyway. Unlike the US with its global network of 800+ overseas military bases, China has nowhere for its naval vessels to refuel.
@@yopyop3241
China have millions of missiles and drones and above that it is backed by the industrial prowess that dwarfs the combined Western world.
No amount of bullsh*tting will save US navy.
@@ajaykumarsingh702The Chinese do not have "millions" of missiles, they have a few thousand that would be of any use against ships. They may have millions of small fpv drones, but those aren't exactly useful for escorting convoys hundreds of miles out to sea. The US would probably enforce a blockade with attack submarines, you announce any ship going to China will be sunk then if anybody tries they take a torpedo from a sub they never knew was there. If the US was willing to be aggressive enough about it, they could definitely blockade Chinese sea imports, but attacks against merchant shipping would be politically unpopular.
@@elmateo77 Well, in that case you must take into consideration Chinese submarines as well. Somehow Im pretty sure they will be able to sunk American transport ships easily as well...
@@Mr_MikeB They certainly could, the problem is China only has 6 nuclear powered attack submarines whereas the US has more than 50, and conventional submarines don't really have the range to interdict most American shipping. The US also has significantly better ASW capabilities due to their specialization in high end sensor technology.
you forgot to mention mass protests once the draft notices are mailed out.
I wonder how many trans males would quickly detransitioned 😆
Google “Century of Humiliation” Chinese will volunteer and we’ll be humiliated.
Im sure America's feminist gay black trans army will be happy to humiliate America for the rest of the world.
Yes, US would collapse
The first point should have been the power output capabilities. Electricity is what wins wars. USA had such industrial might during WW2 because of the power from the dam generators built during the Great Depression. China is doing the same thing today but in terms of nuclear and coal power plants, dwarfing the amount of plants the USA has.
The us has both more nuclear and coal plants than China though? Also the US also dwarfs China when it comes to natural gas as well.
Around 60% of China's electricity generation is from coal plants, and China imports huge amounts of coal from countries like Australia. Not to mention LNG via shipping. So China might have some electricity generation issues if there was a war.
uploaded 4 hours ago and the title includes "China" let's go 🙌
The mainland could never take Taiwan. Any occupation would have to have my grandmother constantly degrade them. It would shatter morale.
Ha!
@@tyharris9994 don't take someone with anime profile picture seriously. Their statement is not valid.
@@arghost9798 I'm somewhat of an authority on how my grandmother behaves. Every summer we visit and I am reminded that I grew up someplace very different. Taiwanese beauty standards and expectations are impossible, dude.
More importantly, Menhera-Chan is friggin' lit.
Listening to Binkov I started thinking: if the trade with China would stop who would fill the gap in EU and US markets.
Few years and we would have everything. India, Vietnam, Indonesia. Every company in these countries and many others would love ban on China. They still can produce cheaper than Europe and US with high salaries. But China knows it and for example in Europe invests massive money into Hungary, which will block every ban on China for sure.
But automatization, AI and robotization can change it in the future. Biggest cost will be energy plus technology lead(performance + effectivity). There is completly possible that China won't have that big advantage like it has now in industry costs.
Vietnam and Mexico
The US is already switching to other nations like Vietnam, India and Mexico
It will be a self inflicted sanction. China has dominated import/export for a decade now.
mexico might fill part of the gap, as for vietnam... i have to remind you that vietnam heavily rely on chinese electricity power, if china refuse to export electricity to vietnam or simply dont let Me Kong river flows into vietnam by using dams. then viet's manufacture capability will be crippled@@shirotatsu1
Such a good episode! Thank you Gen. Blinkov!
The first 2 comments I see are simplistic, polarising and opposite. This is going to be a great comments section!
INCORECCT.
各位海外的朋友们，核子大国坚决不能直接对抗，风险太大，就算不用核子世界承受不了，我敢肯定美国和中国要是全面战争，世界上每个国家都没好日子过，战争随着时间推移都会被卷进来，我们还是想想怎么消除冲突吧！不想在所知的星球里唯一智慧的物种被我们自己消灭了😂😂😂
Lot of armchair generals in the comments today.
Aye Cap’n. 🫡
Just like you.
Me? As in I'm one of the ones telling Binkov that all his research is for not because I feel that I know better?
@@douglasfels9789 Binkov's research? What is that? This vidoe completely omits any consideration of US ecnomy. There's not a single word on it. It also doesn't consider the fact that US can never make such a blockade, cos, any large concentration of force is a suicide these days, as seen in Ukraine war. And China (and many others) got anti-ship hypersonic missiles. Just two obvious points makes this video completely false. You either gotto be completely ignorant or a complete dellusional pro-western fanboy to not see such obvious flaws in this video. No need of any knowledge of war.
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 See first comment! 🤣🤣🤣
ive been waiting for this video
extremely interesting video. Thank you for this analysis
Before one starts a war, one must ask, "And then what?"
Reality, is unbearably hard!
The reality is life never stops and a country will eventually fill the power vacuum when you step back. Plenty of wars have been started without asking that question so that is false.
Smart people do that, but the USA is otherwise
also factor in Allied Production, Europe has US Compatible Hardware production, as dose Australia and a number of in theatre allies.
One of your best videos ever.
For a completely ignorant person. It doesn't consider the war fallout on US. Doesn't consider the impossibily of US naval blockade as China has ample hypersonic missiles to destroy any such thing. Doesn't consider how many other nations will stay trade with both as US power strarts to dwindle (many already stopped being afraid of US).
What is produced and the quality are as important as the total amount of output.
F-35s deliveries have been halted because they're not airworthy. The US military has fallen a long way from WW2 and its 100 carriers. The reality is, China can blockade Taiwan without putting a single ship or plane at risk, that's what they meant to demonstrate with those rockets they fired at all sides of the island. If they choose, there will be no way in or out. Commercial tankers don't like a warzone, look what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockaded China would be in rough shape (less so as their infrastructure to Russia is improved over the next 5-10 years), but a blockaded Taiwan would be a ticking clock until the power shuts off, the food and water run out, and all the consequences that go with that.
This'll never happen but I think the best situation would be for the world to say, "We'll give you Taiwan but none of its technology or people. Anyone who wants to leave will be granted citizenship in their country of choice, and we're going to level TSMC to the ground before we go." Then anyone who wants to stay behind (god knows why) can do so, and the rest of the world will be enriched.
@@AFistfulOf4K Old news. Catch up.
In that case China win since Chinese gear are newever and more advanced than the US ones who still mostly use outdated cold war era ships and jets.
The entire premise of the war would determine how long the war lasts. If the war was over something like Taiwan, the moment Taiwan is starved into submission or successfully invaded, the US would basically lose any incentive to keep fighting.
After all Neither China nor the US believe they can force an unconditional surrender of the other party and the threat of nuclear escalation prevents any kind of total war from breaking out between the two.
Direct strikes on chinese manufacturing facilities are a non-starter just like direct strikes on Russian manufacturing facilities today. The US isn't going to trade LA for Taipei or Kiev.
“Starved into submission” applies to the PRC as well. Without US-provided freedom of navigation, China’s trade will fall prey to dozens of maritime militias and non-state actors. And without maritime imports of raw materials, China cannot maintain an industrialized economy or even feed itself. China will find itself as the least industrialized country in its neighborhood, surrounded by more industrialized rivals. That’s a recipe for a new Century of Humiliation, but this time the superior powers will be local.
It is the height of idiocy for China to flail against the US-led rules based international order. The current system is the absolute best that China could ever possibly hope for. Access to the entire world, and the only “cost” is the need to uphold human rights, respect property rights, and have a decent level of government transparency. The chances of China managing to find or create a better situation are vanishingly small.
@@yopyop3241 nonsense, outside of a US lead blockade china can protect its own trade from pirates and 'non state actors' You seriously don't think that most countries that trade with china have a vested interest in continuing to trade with china? they will protect their own ports and waterways for pirates because pirates harm them too.
The alternative is BRICS which is proving to be more and more viable day by day. The US has shown time and time again to abuse the system that its put in place for its own gain. Its about time an alternative arose.
The fact that Russia is still able to trade with the world despite US sanctions shows that the US can no longer dictate the rules for the world.
With taiwan. the chances of global trade with china stopping is even lower because only a handful of countries recognise the ROC and NOBODY recognises Taiwan as a country.
@@hughmungus2760 The moment a conflict starts, China’s trade will be shut down. That will make it easy to implement strict sanctions. Countries’ vested interest in continuing to trade with China will evaporate. Every one of the countries from the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf will move into the manufacturing vacuum left by the shut down of China’s trade. That will create new vested interests, ones that will want to prevent Chinese manufacturing from ever coming back online. Those new vested interests will work to keep the sanctions in place and will push for maritime militias and non-state actors to prey on Chinese shipping.
Protecting shipping is hard. Modern merchant vessels are almost laughably vulnerable. Protecting modern maritime trade requires an overwhelming power advantage, and China will never have that beyond its coastal zone in the aftermath of a conflict.
Russia is still able to trade because the advanced democracies want Russia to still be able to trade. Even the natural gas pipelines through Ukraine are still functioning. The advanced democracies are content to allow Russia to continue to trade, because Russia has proven to be a paper tiger. Not a real threat. If Russia ever became a real threat, if it started conquering Ukraine at a pace that could defeat Ukraine in under a millennium, Russia’s trade would easily be shut down. Is that your plan? For the PLA to prove to be so toothless that imposing sanctions and stopping China’s trade feels like kicking a newborn puppy?
@@yopyop3241 non state actors might be able to shut off trade at certain chokepoints but not for the world and not on the high seas. trust me, china will be fine without the US protecting it's shipping routes. It would happily replace the US in many of these locations.
@@hughmungus2760It will be countries like India, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. replacing the US in those locations, not China. For decades, the only things that the US has asked for were respect for human and property rights and enough government transparency for a modicum of trust. When it’s India, Japan, etc., we’ll see if they all ask for as little. I find that unlikely, but if that’s the direction China chooses to go, then I guess we’ll find out.
The current industrial capacity is definitely bigger in China. Yet they would be more greately impacted by a war with the US. Not just because of their economy being more reliant on foreign trade including raw materials from outside but also because of US bombings. The US industrial capacity is not as big but huge investments are coming that are exceeding China. Moreover, the US industrial capacity would only rise unless China somehow cut the shipping of raw materials to the US which is unlikely. Furthermore, the base in the US supply chain is very sophisticated. Meaning, even if the US lacks something in scale, a base still exists. This means the US would not need to start from the ground for anything. The experience is there, the talent is there they just need to scale up which by no means is an easy task but it would have been much worse if they had to start from 0
Fact number 1 : the US industrial capacity is pretty much non-existent.
Fact number 2 : Chinese industry dominates in most crucial raw materials including iron ore, magnesium, antimony, copper and has Russian Federation for everything else.
Fact number 3 : US would be crushed into oblivion in the first months of such war, first by financial crash, then consumer good supply then military defeat.
American industry is going to rise up out of the rustbelts in Michigan to compete with China? 😂😂😂
@@MrLougarou1000 It doesn't necessarily needs to be in the Rust belt
@@m.a3914 will we build those factories in the Cincinnati music hall in Ohio?
Where are all of these factories coming from?
Americans are too good for physical labor.
@@MrLougarou1000 In case of war, there will be no people too good for a job buddy
Excellent charts, graphs and overlays. Puppet master!
14:38 - I have my doubts that this would actually work. From I've learned for the current Red Sea conflict and how Russia is selling it's oil, it's that trading vessel's could be owned from a private from one country, has sailors from 3 or 4 different countries working on it, and move goods from one or more other countries. We would have to stop and closely inspect every single ship and that's a very tall order.
Yes US production base will be safe but China will just let US hit it’s industrial base without retaliation😂
They have nothing non-nuclear to retaliate with... If they want to guarantee MAD then sure, they can. But in conventional warfare, the US has a crazy, five layer missile shield, extending from guam, over hawai'i, and the west coast.
Exactly… the US has Carrier strike groups, Submarines, Allied countries, and a chain of islands along with a hell of a lot of military bases encompassing the pacific…
China has submarines and carriers sure, but not to US scale and not enough to strike the country without being hit in retaliation.
China has thousands of missiles that can strike the US. Let's not forget the thousands of Chinese operatives that have entered the US illegally.
Industrial output would mean everything in a war between the world’s two greatest industrial powers.
Solid points displayed here.
YOUR AMAZING! Never give up
Current combat aircraft production is really hard to scale. So is pilot training. I can't see the numbers for day 1 attrition being replaced for at least 5 years.
I’ve always wondered if airforces would introduce “austerity” model jets in major war time conditions.
Like, converted trainers or simplified-single engine planes for more minor mission types, so that they can save better quality aircraft for more important jobs.
@@nobodyherepal3292 almost certainly, though a focus would likely be on drones as seen in Ukraine. You don't need "real" pilots anymore for such things.
China is really hurting on trained pilots. They can’t even fly all the jets on their new aircraft carrier because the problem is so bad. Chinese pilots also fly less hours than their American counterparts.
Most important point u left out is china's food and fertilizer imports. Worsened by them paving cities over their best land, additionally b2/b21 raider can cut off russian oil pipeline quite easily and to blockade oil the US only needs to park a carrier strike group in the gulf and dare anyone to risk loosing their tanker
You missed these:
1. China & Russia doesn't share any land border
2. China doesn't have any air defense capability
@@fanaticcoder3320 China and Russia do have land borders, two lol.
One is short, the other is quite long!
Gimme a break and stop bluffing. Us of A along with his western lackys cant even stop the slipper army of houthis on red sea and meriiicans are technically dreaming of blockade china and Russia. Truly Hilarious
Yeah keep bragging and bluffing, while in reality, US can't even handle houthis blockade against isrhell on the red sea lol
Car manufacturers won’t necessarily make fighter jets, but it’s not that hard to modify production line to make drones and missiles
Funny that I got this recommended after watching a news about China's new regulation in express parcel deliver which caused shortage of delivery workers, some delivery center had all their workers quit and people need to search their own package from the warehouse.
The situation you mentioned does not exist. Nothing has changed in the express delivery industry. Everyone acquiesced to the previous rules. The biggest problem with Western media is that they try to find 0.1% of negative events and think that is 100% of China's problems. Similarly, there is youth unemployment rate. In fact, China does not lack jobs, it just lacks high-paying jobs that young people like, because no young people are willing to work in factories (which is not respectable in the minds of young people, even if the wages are high). There are also real estate thunderstorms. Among the hundreds of people around me, not one person has said that there is a problem with their house. There was an overall 30% to 40% drop in housing prices, but it did not cause social unrest and everyone accepted it silently. This helped China de-bubble. It's an absolute good thing. A U.S. stock market bubble by comparison?
When it comes to discussing the issue of America's allies, here are my thoughts:
1. Japan and South Korea, both countries are within the range of China's hypersonic missiles. If China produces enough Dongfeng-17 missiles, what can these two countries do? Moreover, historically, North Korea and China have a "blood alliance," so in the event of a conflict, South Korea would likely focus all its efforts on North Korea.
2. Australia is quite far away, so what kind of support could they provide?
3. Vietnam and the Philippines: While I don't want to underestimate these two countries, in terms of military strength, what threat can they pose to China?
4. NATO, if NATO joins the US in a war, Russia would probably be the happiest. Just imagine, within five years, China's high-speed rail could reach the western border of Russia, facing NATO directly. Although China's army has been overshadowed by its navy, air force, and rocket force in recent years, given the opportunity, the Chinese army would surely shock the world with its power.
5. India is a pragmatic country, and it's highly unlikely for them to go all out for the US. However, there is a significant possibility that India could provoke friction and disputes along the China-India border. Nevertheless, these actions are insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
US policymakers are well aware of these factors, which is why they have refrained from provoking a hot war with China to date.
I just don't understand why BKB's analysis is so biased.
Besides, the US and its allies seem to be doing so well economically every time.
Such a conflict scenario will play out against the BRICS, which by definition means the exclusion of the US from the global economy for all intents and purposes.
This likely conflict will be asymmetric.
If USA wanna blockade China, Vietnam will be happy to be a transit spot for middle east oil to China and earn plenty A LOT OF MONEY, just like India did in Russian-Ukraine war.
Ukraine war has shown that 1 Patriot system with inexperienced operators can defend against multiple incoming hypersonic missiles at the same time. DF-17 will likely similarly struggle against land targets in Guam and Japan.
For naval targets that are on the move, true hypersonic missiles can't really adjust their trajectories to hit them...and if they're ballistic missiles being sold as hypersonics...ballistic missile defense for the USN should be a relatively harmless exercise. That said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. So who knows?
Also china's miltary gear might not be as capable but they can push out much more than USA ATM , will take time for USA and Europe to gear up especially Europe .
Dont forget that Philippines is a threat batanes is arming up and Philippines is preparing for war plus Philippines military has more experience compare to china all equipment is useless if you are not gling tl use it correctly look at umraine russia dont us it equipment correctly thats why they lost 1000 tanks per day and Philippines will use guerrilla warfare against china and vietnam defeated China during 1979 war and lastly if china invades the terrain of both Philippines and Vietnam will be a nightmare for china as much as usa did in Vietnam
Do not overlook China's resilience, nor underestimate America's capacity for self-transformation. Despite America's deindustrialization, it can achieve reindustrialization through a world war far larger in scale than the Ukrainian conflict. American media claims that China will invade Taiwan in 2027, not because China will actually do so, but because America needs China to. Only war can eliminate financial capital. After the reset of the world economy, the US government will support industrial capital and achieve reindustrialization through war. this video is well done. Love from China.
Hope for world peace, may everyone in the world enjoy peace and prosperity."“希望世界和平，愿世界上每个人都享有和平与繁荣。”
No it won’t
Did you know that in ww2 USA basically became fascist? Private companies were forced to retool and produce war products
Back then people went with it because they loved their country, fascism didn’t get its bad name yet
The greedy globalists that run our country now would never do it unless the government forced the tax payers to pay for bloated profits and siphon the money from the people
excellent take.. lets hope it does not come down to this! love from America.
The answer to every other war that's happened so far is yes that has a big impact at the very least
car makers could make kamikaze drones, as those are often piston engine devices with minimal complexity
Manufacturers of lawn mowers and scooters could do this too.
We don't have enough computer chips.
China is upgrading its nuclear forces to present a credible nuclear deterrent to the US.
I think China would be willing to use nuclear weapons first, in response to any US attacks against Chinese mainland.
Here, we're not talking about attacks against China via some intermediary like Ukraine.
Direct attacks by US forces against Chinese mainland would provoke reciprocal response by Chinese forces against US mainland.
If you compare the second world war with now. Germany lost because it had a smaller industry than America and the Soviets. Only Soviet and North American industry produced more than the entire Axis. And remember that Germany, even when bombed, managed to produce a lot of equipment and production increased in the last years of the conflict. If the Chinese industry is bigger they will be able to produce more anti-aircraft missiles and you just considered a naval blockade without explaining how the North American navy would survive the Chinese missiles that have a range that can reach thousands of kilometers, I was waiting for this explanation but it didn't it arrived. Furthermore, if China produces more drones and hypersonic missiles, I definitely don't know how the Americans could create a naval blockade.
Modern warfare is different from WW2 warfare.
In WW2, conscripts can be given weapon systems.
With modern warfare, a conscript will have no idea how to work in a team with other conscripts to operate a guided missile cruiser, or to fly a J-20 plane.
So even if Country X produces 5000 planes, it's not clear where 5000 pilots will come from...
More because of oil starvation than production
Plus Germany was not being resource efficient
A bigger reason that Germany’s greater production towards the end of the war didn’t help, was the brain drain of Germany. Many of Germany’s best pilots, tankers, and soldiers eventually died. Meanwhile America and Britain took their tank, and plane, aces back home to train the next batch of troops. Russia suffered from this same problem, hence their constantly high casualties. Guessing by china’s aggressive authoritarianism, they’ll likely keep their best deployed. Leaving the next batch under trained, and becoming cannon fodder. This same problem happened to Japan’s navy and air force as well.
The blockade will be conducted way beyond the reach of China’s drones. And it will be conducted via dinky little boats. It takes next to nothing to waylay a modern merchant vessel. Inflatable boats with outboard motors can do the job. That leaves China lobbing hypersonic missiles thousands of miles at inflatable boats. China loses.
@@yopyop3241in front of Type 052C/052D and Type 055 escort and underwater attack submarines?
Awesome video! Cyber warfare can dramatically effect industrial output for both nations.
I am pretty sure in a divided world Africa and most of South America will be in China's sphere of economic influence - as Chinese has a HUGE economic presence on the continent.
Nah, they’ll cut China loose the moment commercial shipping stops servicing Chinese ports. You should expect all of them to pounce on the offer to reclassify the BRI money from “loans” to “gifts.”
I dont think that will happen. African governments see China as a partner and is treated way better by the Chinese than the Western world. @@yopyop3241
@@amunra5330You think anyone is going to risk secondary sanctions in favor of already-kaput trade links to China? Oh, wait, I get it. You are foreseeing a coalition of African and Middle Eastern navies coming together and forcibly ejecting the US Navy from the Indian Ocean and Malacca. Sounds like a plan. Let’s make it happen! Go team!
16:28 That's Chinatown in Melbourne, Australia. I go to the pub on the left often lol
I'm from Melbourne too. I think I've might have visited it in the past!
You didn't talk about food imports and now this would impact the war?
Weapons production in the US during World War II was successful because it had a huge production base during that time that could be converted into a war industry. The US made its own steel, aluminum, gunpowder. Why does the United States have a huge trade deficit today? Because it consumes far more goods than it produces. And that has to do with the globalized economic system where the US cannot exploit its production potential. The United States has a service economy and will not change without major social upheaval.
America can't beat Afghanistan and Houthi. Stop bragging.
Does the US want to beat the Houthis? Hardly any US trade goes via the Red Sea. China is the country that uses that route the most.
With Afghanistan, the US easily won the “break stuff” part. In contrast, the US lost the “turn them into nice people” part.
In a conflict with China, there will be no attempt at “turn them into nice people.” It will be entirely about “break stuff.”
@@yopyop3241 as long as you Americans remain arrogant the world would side with your opponents. You can try being constructive for a change and see how many friends it would gather you like it did during world war II..
You won't win this one alone. US today is like Britain in forties. And China today is like US in forties.. break stuff with Afghani and houthis and break stuff with a near peer enemy like China are not the same things.
@@yopyop3241America’s boss Israel lives in that region, I’m sure it’s important to the US.
@@BengalLancerThe US is the most constructive country in human history. By far. The US created the rules based international order and freedom of navigation. Those US creations have led to a golden age for humanity. By every single metric ever devised- life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy rate, percent living in slavery, percent living in colonies, percent killed by disease, percent killed in war, etc., etc.- the years of US dominance have been the best for humanity.
The CCP seems intent on tearing down that golden age. The result is going to turn out to be far worse for China than anyone else. Eighty years ago, at the dawn of the American era, China was the poorest of the poor, weakest of the weak. In the West, children were chided to eat everything their parents put on their plates, “because there are starving children in China.” No one has benefited more than China under the American led order, and no one will fall further if it breaks.
whatever you ccp Chinese need to believe to let you sleep at night 😂
In the last years of ww2 USA build almost 100 aircraft carriers. This was all types from light and up. But so far from what could be done today.
Haven't you seen the news lately? There's a factory boom in the US, and Bidens infrastructure projects have set us up for even more industrial growth
@@SelfProclaimedEmperoryeah no
@@xaveircombs2690 the US is literally the world's leading aircraft producer today and china only 6th place. Airpower wins wars
USA is not the same USA 80 yrs ago, nowadays USA is de-industrialized with almost no manufacturing left, only Financial and services
@@alexpan8138 the US is currently the world's leading manufacturer of aircraft
So we have seen how the US would respond to China, but we didnt hear anything about China responding in kind on the US soil.
The chances of a Chinese invasion are nil. Only the US still has a "blue water navy" capable of large scale amphibious operations, so China would have to attack by air, and that would fare no better. They certainly have the ability to attack US bases in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Guam, and from submarines they could attack Alaska, Hawaii, and the continental US. But that's about it.
What is up with this American obsession with fantasising about war with China? Are you simply trying to will it into existence?
China would never be able to invade the US mainland, that’s not even in the picture
@@Grimloxzthey want to invade Taiwan and the US has to defend Taiwan… what don’t you get
@@DavidNaval I won’t even bother with a substantive response because I can see some 🐕-ass deletes comments they don’t like. So much for the “free speech” mafia.
We ended world war 2 with including war losses 300,000 minus the 2,500 we had that's 297,500 divided by 4 years assuming production was instantaneous at the war's start which it was not that would be 74,375 aircraft per year. This video is claiming that yearly production for world war 2 is 52,300 that would be 209,200 before losses the production would have to exceed the number at the end of the war because many planes were lost something is not tracking here. I think a mistake may have been made.
I still don't get how there are people who have time to play computer games.
this comment section is cancerous
Binkov's comment sections tend to be filled with single-digit IQ wumaos. I genuinely feel sorry for the guy.
What else do u expect of a propaganda video?
Industrial manufacturing decides everything
No, logistics determine everything. And China’s most critical logistical lifelines stretch way beyond the extent of China’s military reach and run past numerous US military bases.
@@yopyop3241 China only cares the area around not like the US spreads power all around the world. So logistics is not an issue to China .
@@6haha Right, um you realize we won the war because we could get our troops to Germany, and Japan right? China is dependent on energy and food imports, the US exports those things. We also export weapons systems.
Sure we won't have as many low quality tools, toys, or trash, but last I checked our aircraft are made here in the USA, our ships, our guns, our munitions. The things you need to win a war.
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket can you explain why Boeing is in big trouble now?
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket you forgot there is something called national reserve products includes food, oil, and etc. the US has a lot, so does China
USA heavy industry wound up being seriously overbuilt and very much overmanned by the end of the "roaring twenties". That was quite an advantage over the following ten years of the Great Depression
when it came to getting things moving again as war loomed. But there were also some very bad false starts like "government cost plus contracts" which resulted in companies like GMC creating labor shortages by pre hiring lots of skilled trades to sit around doing nothing while companies contracted to rehab old factories and build new ones cpuld not find sufficient workers to fulfill their needs...
The biggest problem for the US is that it couldn't even ramp up war production during a time of war, even if it wanted to. Why? Because the US doesn't have the raw material, it doesn't have the factories, it doesn't have the equipment, and it doesn't even have enough to defend all of that even if it did have it. You can't make manufacturing machines out of thin air. These are big heavy machine that require not just materials and time, but also expertise that no longer exists in the US. Not even 1 in 10,000 people in the US have the expertise required to run such machines. China on the other hand, can simply produce lower quality in high numbers.
What's one top tier jet vs 100 mediocre jets. You simply can't win. Now multiply that by everything. They lose 100 jets, they'll have 100 more up and running in a week. US loses something, it takes months if not years to replace it. Just look how long it takes to build a single carrier or jet or tank in the US. They could speed it up, sure, but it wouldn't be enough, and eventually things will run out. The US has almost no mining activities left for raw resources. The US has almost no metal foundries left, so it couldn't even process the ore, let alone turn it into something usable, not at adequate war production levels.
And then there's expertise again....when you have a bunch of completely inexperienced people, not only will their work product be inferior, that will cause issues with production at every level. Not just slow downs, but complete stoppages, dangerous working conditions, and inferior parts used in construction that cause a plethora of logistical issues to the point stuff will be breaking down all the time. Anyone who believes the US can muster anywhere near an adequate war time production is living in a fantasy.
I am quite surprised that people never dare to talk about invading Russia, and yet keep talking about invading China. Is China weaker than Russia? China’s industrial output is more than USA, Germany, Japan and UK combined! And China can reply on Russia and Central Asia for raw materials needs!
nukes.
American propaganda whistles through their heads. China manufacturers 4.5 million drones per year and 80% of American drones, according to statistia data sets.
They better read their Bibles first.
Americans hate China far more than they do Russia. Taiwan is a thriving, vibrant democracy while Ukraine was riddled with corruption. Taiwan is a major US trade partner, especially when it comes to critical high end semiconductors; Ukraine is not, in anything. Taiwan is astride the trade route from the US to SE Asia (I believe total US trade with SE Asia is now greater than US trade with China); Ukraine is stuffed away in the cul-de-sac that is the Black Sea. The Euro countries should be able to defeat Russia on their own; no one thinks the same about the East and Southeast Asian democracies vs China.
@@peka2478
China has hypersonic nukes and probably more than they reveal to the world.
What is the last time China has been at war? Military experience and military readiness is what defines the military potential of a country. Yes, China is weaker than Russia. And every EU member is weaker than Ukraine.
Back in the 1970s, the US was hit by the Arab Oil Embargo. 5-6% cut in American oil consumption with a corresponding 5-6% cut in GDP growth. (Oil consumption fell from 17.3 to 16.3 mb/d, GDP growth went from +5.5% to -0.5%.)
In this China conflict scenario, we are talking about a 60%+ cut in China’s oil consumption, and Binkov is claiming that the PLA will be basically unaffected.
How will that affect USA? Besides, there's a good chance that China will be able to fulfil all its oil needs via pipiline built from Iran and Russia and possibly from Saudi Arabia too. As the Ukriane conflict shows, RSA isn't really dancing to become US puppet again.
Dunno. Here’s some background.
Trade with China amounts to ~2% of US GDP. So that’s the direct impact.
For indirect impacts, many supply chains go through China and then to the US.
Trade with SE Asia will be most tied to China. Trade between SE Asia and the US amounts to ~2% of US GDP again.
Similar story with Europe, but significantly weaker reliance on China. Euro-US trade again amounts to ~2% of US GDP.
Then it’s Canada and Mexico. Low reliance on China, ~3% each.
The rest of the world is ~1% of US GDP.
@@aniksamiurrahman6365Also, keep in mind the US’s market power. The US market is always given priority.
A few guys in Yemen can shut down the entire Red Sea, and Chinese missiles can hit anything from Iceland to New Zealand. It's not China that need to worry about energy, it's the US who'll be cut off from all trade outside North America...
@@yopyop3241 There's direct trade, and then there's the guy that works at the dock, the guy who drives the truck, the Amazon ad Walmart, the people they employ, the ad revenue from companies selling those goods, accountants, the lawyer. The entire US economy runs on downstream economic activity from those imports, and it's FAR larger than 2%.
Then there's the part where China puts a few holes in TSMC and the entire US tech industry collapses.
Well, it's very hard to consider that maritime trade to China wouldn't be redirected to far East Russian territories or Pakistan and India to enter China by land.
Furthermore, it would be very unlikely that neutral countries would just sit idle while their ships are sunk by the US.
Judging from how much US WITH ALLIES struggled to supply current actions going on, including the fact that one of conflict was practically free to supply (excluding logistics costs) because of the support itself was going in form of Soviet built tech or assets undergoing decomissoin, it would take a miracle for Blues to win this war of nutrition. These calculations seem to be based on estimations that the Red won't mobilize the economy in face of most of it being smoked by attacks early. That is a «Blitzkrieg» plan. We all have seen what happens when Blitzkrieg turns into a war of nutrition.
And I haven't even brought up the production chains of US military equipment going through mainland China.
“War of nutrition” is apt. Without maritime trade, China can probably only produce enough calories to support around 1/3rd of its current population.
I’m sure that will go smoothly. The 2/3rds that will be singled out to go without will just meekly accept the CCP’s decision and go quietly into the night. There won’t be any disruptions to China’s production for the war effort, because all Chinese will agree that conquering Taiwan makes it all worth it.
Why am i sitting in bed in my underwear at 4pm watching a puppet analyse the industral capacity of the US and china.
Puppet analyst. That's a proper analysis of this video.
300,000 fighters and bombers the US produced in WW2 (4 years US was at war).
In a WW scenario both US & China will Never produce even 1/10th of that.
We would need AI to mass produce to ever come close to WW2 output.
Today’s weapons are far too complex and time consuming to make.
US is a shadow of its WII industrial capacity, that's because greedy corporations outsourced all manufacturing capability to china, china gets stronger by the day US gets weaker by the hour! US cannot even supply Ukraine with enough ammo on its own, and there's the moral of the story. China will also have the latest intel on those western weapons and how they perform from Russian, US is still in Biden dream of equality socialism and saying nice things to nice people whilst stabbing them in the back at the same time! US would lose a war with china if fought in the next 5 years!
They're complex and time-consuming to manufacture because that's what the people in charge of the money have asked for, space-age wonderweapons focused on operator safety. We've spent the years since the cold war annually making tiny improvements in theoretical operator safety in exchange for gigantic increases in cost and decreases in effective firepower. And you see the result in Ukraine: we quickly ran out of spare wonderweapons to send them and the war might still carry on for years to come. We've sent them something like 1/3 of our GMLRS rockets, France and UK have sent a huge proportion of their Scalp/Storm Shadow missiles and now have almost none for themselves. Those weapons have done great work... but there's no more to send. We can send more ATACMS next, but we'll soon run out of those too.
What Ukraine actually wants is millions of drones and dumb artillery shells, because when the rubber hits the road you need to actually kill your enemy, not impress him with your technology. But we can't make those because decades ago the politicians said, "artillery shells? how barbaric, we'll never need those again." We have to rely on old Soviet stockpiles for the artillery and China for the drones. If the US was under actual threat we'd find a way to make something that might only be half as effective as our best weapons but for a tenth of the cost, probably much less.
One small correction, those Iron Ore figures are likely to be tonnes rather than cubic metres.
I work in the Australian Iron Ore industry and I've spent a fair bit of time thinking about what would happen to Aussie Iron Ore exports, the ore price and our industry in this scenario. If the industry shut down overnight it would cripple our economy but at the same time conflict would likely increase global demand for Iron Ore, so surely a friendly nation could pick up some of the demand?
Well, you really think that so called friendly nation doesnt already have its own suppliers of that ore? And if they do, what they would want to switch you?
Definitely no doubt
Is so fucked up wall streets elite dumped all your valuable industry to other world and closer to markets. Yeah we know is more profitable that way but doesn't mean you should put nation's development aside and all thinking about yrself as some sort of "mastering selfish".
Many things missing
1/ US MIC needs Chinese components, Raytheon admitted it
2/ US commercial companies won’t have access to Chinese capital goods, to TSMC chips so they will be hurt badly too.
Yea...I would love to see how those ships move when china decide on full ban export on all processed raw materials
why war would happen in the way the US desired? for example, why not north korea start another war in korean peninsula at the same time ?
Or why not the middle east & iran start united military action against israel at the same time ?
The advanced democracies of the First Island Chain take priority over pretty much any other conceivable threat, so nothing really changes.
North Korea? How far do you trust North Korea? They’re at least as likely to backstab China as they are to help China.
@@yopyop3241 China does not need any help from North Korea. North Korea has own initiative to unite the korean peninsula. Check the status of 1924, where were US military bases in east Asia ? Nothing. The "trust" has no meaning, anyone could backstab others. would Japan surrender and be "loyal" to US forever?
@@leqiaop1840Full democracies (backed by freedom of speech, freedom of the press, an independent judiciary, etc.) don’t backstab each other. Why do you think all of the mutually demilitarized borders that have ever existed have all been between full democracies.
Indications are that both Koreas are losing interest in reunifying. If so, then North Korea is more interested in security guarantees and economic access than conquest. And if the PRC gets itself cut off from maritime trade, then the PRC will be in no position to offer significant security or economic access. Backstabbing the PRC during a conflict, just before the PRC gets itself flushed down the tube, would be a smart play.
@@yopyop3241 there ist No such full democracy in Reality. I Hope you Not live in hype or Imagination.
@@leqiaop1840There are lots of close-enough-to-a-full-democracy-that-mutually-demilitarized-borders-are-workable. Backstabbing doesn’t happen with the advanced democracies. That’s a communist and dictatorship thing. Lesser forms of government.
Really shortsighted of the Chinese to choose to go with an inherently untrustworthy form of government. A country with longer, more at-risk trade lifelines than anyone else really can’t afford to be disliked.
Space will be the most important battleground,, absolutly vital to have control of all of spacebound assets.
Excellent analysis. Especially on the production capacity projection. One thing may offset the prediction is that logistic for US to projection its war power to first island chain is far more difficult comparing to china. If US cannot hold first island chain then a lot of the assumptions may not be realistic. Things like Japan, Korean or Philippines will forever be US allies may fundamentally crumble.
Isnt that the same for China? China is massivly dependend on raw ressources imports and even if the US would lose the first island chain, it would still be abled to blocl maritime trade from China. And land based infrastructure is far far away from being abled to replace it.
That's was more like disclosure. It will be obvious that they have more of everything than us. He's just putting it out there now. And he's not telling you how much more
@@SaviOr747 you can't blockade China. This is insane. Don't listen to this crap it will get everyone in deep poo.
US has already opened many new bases on the Philippines and other nations in the area.
The US is king when it comes to wartime logistics.
@@alexgavieres8293 The PLA Navy is bigger than the US Navy. The US produces 5 ships per year.
You just don't have enough ships to do a blockade INSiDE Of fckin China!
Wt heck is wrong with y'all
In the words of Treebeard,
"Break the dam. Release the water."
You know that 3 Gorges Dam is on the target.
one easy vital target, but china has so many weaknesses so many. but do we have the will to exploit it?
You do realize that also applies to every dam and powerplant and important infrastructure in the US right? if you start hitting stuff like that China will strike important locations like the hoover dam too.
@@moe_is_justice8559 It's all about capabilities and impact. The Hoover Dam is significantly less "important" compared to the 3 Gorges, where it impacts hundreds of millions of people, both from an energy production loss to ecological disaster.
Then secondly, capability. The US has much more means of knocking out the 3 Gorges Dam compared to China hitting the Hoover, for example.
@@moe_is_justice8559The Chinese power projection capability is much more limited compared to the U.S., China’s new carrier’s capabilities, even its launching system is quite new and untested.
China could hit the U.S. with long range missiles, but The US would’ve already deployed their own long range missiles along with waves of strike fighters that would overwhelm the rocket force and PLAAF before they could do the same with their fighters.
Also the amount of submarines the US is capable of fielding is a major factor in disabling China’s key military and civilian infrastructure.
@thomashsiai6250 Just the idea of China waging an effective war against the US is laughable.
The US has perfected the art of wartime logistics and they are warriors raised with guns.
Above all....Americans LOVE to compete.
Every things stops as soon as the raw commodities don’t get to the manufacturers. China imports a lot raw materials, from many countries that don’t always agree with their policies and intimidation.
Yet many raw materials you can only import from China ,for example rare earth elements . China can import most resources from Russia and Mongolia .
When warfare happen you think these country will sell matetial to US by accepting US debt??
@@johnsonwang8728 Maybe not to same extent but there are other world locations that have large reserves of rare earth minerals that have become viable to mine now with chinas export restrictions.
@@mindwarp4818 Rare earth minerals is often coexists with radioactive mineral. But rare earth mineral in China dont have that problem .Some rare earth mineral is elemental states in China .Just dig out and its 99%+ pure. Its impossible for other countries even try to compete with China's rare earth industry. That's why China produce 70% of the rare earth material in the world.
@@johnsonwang8728The annual global rare earths market is measured in millions. With an “m.” That’s chump change. The companies that use them in significant quantities (companies like Apple, GE, Siemens, etc.) recognize the risk and have the resources to keep many months worth in storage to hedge the risk. Those companies also have huge political clout, and they have convinced governments to set up reserve rare earths refining capacity- mothballed factories kept inactive but ready to quickly start production if needed.
Rare earths aren’t anywhere near as important as they used to be. They used to be at the core of long term electronic data storage. Remember hard drives? Spinning disks that used rare earths’ powerful magnetic properties to store data as tiny magnetic bits? We don’t use hard drives any more. No more spinning disks in our electronic devices. Long term data storage is now done with silicon. Solid state, no more big reliance on rare earths. We still use rare earths for things like medical imaging and chemical analysis, but those are niche applications, not something that everyone uses every day.
Love the shot of Melbourne’s Chinatown at 16:32 🇦🇺
Amateurs Talk Strategy, Professionals Talk Logistics
- Gen. Omar Bradley
The US civilian and military administration is packed full of political appointments, aka complete amateurs.
China has the world's largest merchant marine fleet and builds 2/3 of all cargo ships on the planet.
America doesn't have the logistics capacity to fight China in Asia, but China actually do have the capacity to fight America in North America.
@@vlhc4642 lol no they dont dumbass, plus all it takes is one hit on 3 gorges and it wipes out 1/3 of their industrial output.
@@vlhc4642 lol keep dreaming. China is reliant on imports and has no domestic oil. Nevermind they couldn't invade when Americans own more guns than china has people.
@@vlhc4642 china is too weak to do that lol
The early war would be savage, but after the first and second years both would be facing modern equipment shortages (most equipment would be destroyed and due to complexity not be replenished faster than losses), lack of capable manpower (aging population and low birthrates, being the biggest drivers), political unrest and mutinies. The war would probably last a whole decade, but be far from a total war as neither has the political, demographic and economical capital to sustain one. It's end would be in the case of one of the sides crippling into civil war, or a truce between both nations due to war exhaustion.
(Of course that's discounting the possible use of nukes)
thats a very realistic view mate. i agree!
modern eqipment cannot be made like they used too in ww2 because of all the electronics. in the past it was mostly steel.
I don’t see how that comes to China
@@user-xh5pc3wd2m即便无法快速制造，那中国的生产速度也比美国快的多，中国一年就能生产几千艘军舰，在战时状态下，其次即便是按照现在的存量，美国也远远无法在西太平洋战胜中国
100%, industry decides who wins.
Industry and national unity/willingness to fight. China handily wins both.
"such a conflict might not last months but years" or hours :p
mistake at 16:45: the oil numbers should be millions, instead of billions
Somebody could claim China can't exist as closed economy, also lacking natural sources, energy supply etc., nevertheless it should be taken into account that contemporary geopolitical constellation has pushed this country into firmly connection with Russia, which is contrary extremely rich on all thinkable resources. According to hostile relationship and rivaling US with both of these countries it isn't hard to predict which side Russia would follow. US should make better to concentrate itself on its own internal issues rather than permanently initiate dangerous situations possibly leading to WW3.
Only rail transport cannot meet the needs of 1.4 billion people
Lockheed Martin is drooling to this video
2nd Try at posting this comment: Can someone explain to me why after a Sino-American war why the US would agree to a cease fire? Wouldn't it make strategic sense to go into a low level conflict so that they continue the raw material blockade? China and Russia would be in economic collapse, while the rest of the world would be readjusting to the loss of Chinese export manufacturing.
I think binkov is missing something here, which is the political aspect of how the conflict STARTS. If China has a legitimate justification, or at least enough to not isolate third parties - Europe, Russia - it can probably get a lot of countries to stand down on that blockade. I am also skeptical of Europe agreeing to a blockade. Even Korea and Japan will suffer major economic trouble from a war, and might decide to just drop Taiwan
The US doesn't need anyone else to instill its blockade lol
@@neon.kalash3115A Taiwan conflict severs China’s trade links to the world. Taiwan has missiles on mobile launchers that can reach to Korea or Vietnam. Who is going to stand with China when China’s trade has already been cut off? Everyone is going to join the sanctions. Everyone with a navy is going to join the blockade.
@@yopyop3241 oh yeah? the "international community" is going to sanction them again? 😂
I am no expert, but I believe China's industrial output is targetable by the USA whereas the reverse is not true unless it turns into nuclear war.
If China has good enough anti-naval capabilities, US won't be able to get close. Yeah they could use strategic bombers, but that as a sustained campaign would be very difficult. In that scenario, they both won't be able to hit each others industrial bases effectively. But I don't know much, I'm just an armchair general
@user-ml1rv1jk3w U.S. won't be able to get close? It already has bases in northern Phillipines a few dozen miles off the coast of Taiwan. And that's before you take into account Japan, South Korea, and yes......12 gigantic super-carriers.
@@user-ml1rv1jk3w personally I think there's two major problems for China. US rapid dragon system in C-130s, and the fact that Taiwan has, even as a last resort, capability to mass a missile strike on the three gorges dam. Destroying the dam would likely lead to Hundreds of Millions of deaths in China within the span of a year or two, but would likely result in immediate nuclear retaliation. It's their version of MAD.
I, personally, flat out do not think this conflict will happen. Everyone on both sides has to be an idiot, but even moreso whoever fires the opening shot. The negative consequences, financial, and otherwise, on top of the climate crisis and financial instability and political turmoil everywhere and everything else going on would be too heavy a burden for pretty much everyone, pretty much everywhere.
To be honest I’m not sure if a modern conflict between two superpowers would come down to industry. I feel like whoever wins the first few large battles would win. It just takes too long to replace complicated military assets.
Too short.
I need more information!
Its hard to say if and when it will happen, but most likely won’t until 2030.
Plus: 1 US is 7000 miles away from home. 2. China can import raw materials from Russia. 3. China is the largest trade partner of 141 nations. Almost 100% penicillin come from China in the USA.
All three comments I posted on this video disappeared. This has happened on this channel a number of times. Does Binkov remove these comments or is it the RUclips algorithm/moderators?
Deleted by u.s. democracy.
Deleted by freedom of speech.
I don’t see why they would target you specifically, there are way too many Chinese or Russian fanboys in this comment section.
The other thing you can't predict fully is the ramp up. In WWII, entire factories sprang up where there was nothing, and began churning out fighters, bombers, tanks, within months. Entire shipyards came out of no where. I seem to recall we also retooled based on what was working, for the most part. So entire lines of fighters might be pulled from service in favor of ones that are actually working.
It may be a repeat of the war with Japan. Early on, defeats and disasters. But over time, things would swing back, and we'd be able to grind out victory. Though at a high cost for sure.
You think the Chinese can't just "plop out entire factory cities" too? Give me a break
where they going to get the resources from, they suffer the same problem Japan had in ww2, the island chain and naval control will always defeat china@@WeAreBrokenAllIsLost
@@bkeckk China is not at all like Japan, they manufacture more steel and other input goods than almost any collection of Western nations combined. Japan is an Island, China is a large portion of the Eurasian landmass....
@@bkeckk From Russia, Mongolia, Central Asian "Stan" states, North Korea, continental South East Asia.. well practically the whole Eurasian landmass (barring geopolitical limitations) if their naval route is blocked.. which is a very big IF..
yes and where do the truck come from????and if possible why didn't china replace Australian coal? iron ore??? Food??? Think the belts and roads is failing and war hasn't even started, and you think it could happen over night during war@@ganjarwb57
U.S. Industrial output is minuscule and even what we have would be hard pressed to be turned into war/weapons manufacturing without a lot of notice.
Industrial output, manpower, and resources decide all wars.
China cannot protect its critical logistical lifelines. Even dinky little Taiwan has the ability to cut China’s maritime links to the rest of the world.
@@yopyop3241 The world will change, China will change.
@@yopyop3241
No, they haven't.
Taiwan is toast in a few hours by Chinese rocket force.
@@ajaykumarsingh702Taiwan has truck-mounted anti-ship missiles. China probably won’t be able to take them all out (and more importantly, the commercial shipping lines and their insurers certainly won’t believe that they have all been taken out) until the PLA has boots on the ground over the entire island. That will take months at a minimum.
Look at Russia’s inability to hunt down Ukraine’s HIMARS….
Man power is not relevant in air and sea wars
Chinese capabilities and industry an order of magnitude more than USA
Okay, it seems like my last post didn't get deleted, so I'll try again with this one: If China is in a full scale war with the USA, how is it going to acquire South East Asia? Instead, I would postulate that Myanmar would be neutralized and Vietnam and Thailand would be fully capable of maintaining independence and would rather be aligned with the neutral block, rather than being in China's sphere of influence. Laos would just be ignored.
Great video. Keep up the good work
The U.S. is making 3 destroyers/frigates per year? My state shipyard builds 2 Arleigh Burkes per year...and it's not even close to the biggest military shipyard in the country. I used to work there and off the top of my head I know of 4 shipyards 2 on the East Coast 1 Gulf Coast and 1 West Coast that all build at minimum 2 destroyers/frigates per year so I think your info is off Binkov.
You can look up the commissioning's, you know.
@@westrim and ingalls in Al is 2 a year as well and those are just the two building flight 3 Burkes you have freedom independence class lcs which I used to do the graphic design modifications on
Long before industrial output decides the war, agricultural output will
Lol so china will starve first haha, I guess if they can't secure food shipments from India then yeah it might work out that way.
@@dominuslogik484 china is calorically self sufficient. People will just have to eat less meat.
@@hughmungus2760 And figure out how to create potassium from the ether. China is calorically self sufficient while using 5x-7x as much fertilizer and pesticide per hectare as American farmers. Fertilizer and pesticide with imported precursors.
When China’s trade stops, famine will stalk the Chinese.
@@yopyop3241 potash is primarily imported from Russia and central asia anyway. China also produces a large amount of it domestically which can be scaled up.
china can also switch to less fertiliser intensive crops too. Again, it was able to fully feed itself in the 2000s with next to no imports.
@@hughmungus2760 Traditional agriculture transfers soil fertility to the edge of cities and towns. Crops contain nutrients from the soil. Some of those crops are conveyed to the cities and towns to feed the people there. Those city dwellers excrete out the nutrients. Since no one wants to carry other people’s excretions long distances, the nutrients end up at the edge of the city/town.
That process has gone on continuously for longer in China than anywhere else. Nowhere else had as extreme variation in fertility between areas close to the cities/towns vs the areas farther away. Now ask yourself, where were the edges of the cities and towns for most of Chinese history vs where are the edges today?
China has paved over almost all of its most fertile land. The crop land that remains is remarkably low fertility. Chinese farmers aren’t idiots for using 5x-7x as much fertilizer per hectare as their US counterparts. That’s what it takes to get a decent crop out of their nutrient-depleted soil.
Please do a US vs China Battle , set in 2027......