Note: Yes, the 'Lithium Volcano' is included in this analysis. That resource has been known about for decades and Lithium Americas Corporation has been working on tapping into it at the southern edge for about 15 years now. That mine (Thacker Pass) will probably go-live in 26-27' but it's going to be a drop in the bucket compared to global lithium supply and demand. Why did the media hype it? My understanding was that there was more research done on it. But, that doesn't change the forecast because as I covered in other videos - it takes many years to tap into these resources.
You're correct. If the US wants to get serious about breaking China's monopoly on EV & battery metals (& it needs to) then the subsidy programs announced to bring back US manufacturing are not going to do it. It needs to find a way to reduce regulation or speed decision-making on resource development (hopefully without encouraging mining firms to continue generating the environmental disasters of the past). It takes too long to develop resources in America. But bad practices of the mining industry are why this problem exists. Mining companies have been a disaster. Removing regulation isn't the solution: they did that in China and the nation is an environmental disaster as a result. We need faster development. But we'll need absolutely clear and rigid standards for environmental protection, rigorous inspection & supervision, and penalties with teeth. Not fines that end up being paid by shareholders & buyers of production: we need prison sentences for operators and management and especially executive management and Board Directors. Until these people are at real risk of serious prison time, mining will not clean up its act and respect regulation. I thought the lithium deposit you reference was large enough to support multiple mines & all US requirements for decades, but the problem was regulation makes that impossible. No?
Very rarely do I watch anything on here that leaves me feeling more informed and like I actually learned something worth learning. Thank you sincerely for everything you do Jordan. This series has been truly AMAZING learning so far! 👍🏻😎
Tesla becoming involved in lithium mining, by partnering or such, could also potentially help address political risk. Governments could favor sources in their credits and/or tariffs. Local sources multiple places could reduce this risk.
0:05: 🔋 This video discusses the global lithium supply chain and its implications for Tesla. 0:05: The video is part of a two-hour long series on the global lithium supply chain. 0:26: The previous videos covered a global battery supply forecast for lithium and sodium ion batteries. 0:37: Credits and thanks are given to individuals and sources who provided valuable insights. 0:58: The video highlights the importance of understanding the quality of sources and peer review. 1:19: The information covered in the series will be analyzed in relation to Tesla. 3:11: The video aims to provide a comprehensive resource on global lithium supply and its impact on Tesla. 3:23: The opinions in the video are the creator's own, based on reconciling differing views and forecasts within the lithium industry. 4:12: 🔋 Tesla's battery demand is projected to grow from 16% of global supply in 2021 to 47% in 2030, but they may face government pushback and competition from other automakers in the latter half of the decade. 4:12: Tesla expects to use between 150 to 200 GWh of battery cells this year and aims to consume 3 TWh per year by 2030. 5:22: Tesla's battery demand as a share of global supply is projected to grow from 16% in 2021 to 47% in 2030. 5:46: Tesla's high margin allows them to pay more for batteries and gain greater access to battery supply. 5:59: Tesla's battery supply is somewhat variable to price and dependent on their planned battery supply for each product. 6:07: Tesla's ability to secure greater cell supply depends on their buying power and willingness to pay higher prices. 6:22: Tesla's success in securing battery supply may put struggling competitors out of business. 6:46: At some point in the latter half of the decade, Tesla may face government pushback and competition from other automakers and energy storage manufacturers. 7:10: 🔋 Tesla may face challenges in consuming more than a third of global battery supply by 2028, but becoming more active in the lithium mining industry could help mitigate the potential lithium crunch. 7:10: Tesla could end up with a 50% market share in the best case scenario, but it will be difficult to consume more than a third of global battery supply. 8:21: If Tesla doesn't take a more active role in lithium mining, they may face a lithium crunch as early as 2026. 8:35: Tesla's rate of battery consumption growth may drop from 50% in 2027 to lower percentages in subsequent years. 9:05: Tesla tends to sign with the largest lithium producers in the world, but doesn't advertise it. 9:16: The absence of information about Tesla's lithium supply isn't necessarily a cause for concern. 10:09: Even if Tesla can't fully cover the supply gap, becoming more active in the lithium mining industry could be beneficial. 10:32: Tesla is currently paying large margins to lithium miners and refiners, which could amount to over a billion dollars per year. 10:43: 🔋 Tesla may need to take a more active role in lithium mining to reduce the cost of batteries and ensure a stable supply. 10:43: The better the battery industry gets at manufacturing batteries, the higher the cost of raw materials. 11:08: Tesla wants to secure as much lithium as possible at the lowest cost to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. 11:20: Lithium miners prioritize maximizing profits and minimizing risk, which may not align with Tesla's goals. 11:31: Vertical integration into lithium mining can help Tesla control their own destiny and reduce reliance on third parties. 12:08: Tesla can finance or partner with struggling mining projects to secure a stable supply of lithium. 12:30: Tesla could consider buying a major mining company to increase extraction speed and redirect lithium supply. 13:15: Tesla has been cautious about entering the lithium mining industry due to social and environmental concerns, future lithium supply projections, and resource allocation. 14:21: 💡 Despite the challenges, Tesla is likely to get into lithium mining in the future due to Elon Musk's course-correcting nature. 14:21: Elon Musk may be overoptimistic about lithium mining and underestimate non-technical challenges. 14:56: Tesla is expected to take more aggressive action in securing lithium supply in the next few years. 15:08: Other battery chemistries like vanadium flow and liquid metal batteries won't scale quickly enough to make a big impact by the end of the decade. 15:25: Sodium ion batteries, while ready for commercialization, are unlikely to take more than a third of the market by the end of the decade. 15:39: Each battery chemistry has specific use cases and may not overlap with lithium or sodium ion batteries. 16:02: The full video will contain extra content and a summary for quick sharing. 16:50: The video provides comprehensive information on lithium supply and relies on the support of viewers. Recap by Tammy AI
Summation: 4 minutes repeating that this video is a compressive resource. 10 minutes of saying Tesla needs more lithium & is willing to pay more. 2 minutes on chemistries. Final minute, saying that this video is a comprehensive resource.
Loved the acknowledgement you got on Tesla Daily for your 4860 battery prediction that was spot on. I get Tesla getting into mining is not ideal, but I do wonder if they could innovate the industry. Mining might be another industry needing a fresh pair of eyes on how things are done. Great job as usual Jordan.
I believe voir dire actually comes from the french language for the verbs to see and to speak. Often the legal system uses sort of archaic phrases that actually are pretty simple to understand when translated.
Thomas Jefferson's influence. Although US law grew out of the Code of Virginia and British law, many French idioms were adopted as "face validity" that the founders felt would be perceived as distancing the nation from tyrants like George III, codified in Virginia's slogan: sic semper tyrannus.
Another exceptionally good video Jordan. I know this is your specialty or area of expertise but i think youd be excellent for documentaries of any topic.
Very thought provoking. Few factors that might alleviate the supply pressure: 1. Recycling of Li batteries - As EVs mature the end-of-life batteries will be recycled back to original materials that will be much cheaper to process. Tesla has already stated that they will be recycling at the Giga factories. AL, PB are excellent examples 2. As the demand soars the manufacturing and refining process will get much more efficient. 3. Higher demand will lead to major discoveries of raw material. Think shale oil.
Did you look at recycling batteries to supplement mining for lithium supply out towards 2030. I suspect it would still be fairly small, then grow larger after 2030. Sorry if I missed this point in the videos. Also enjoy the videos very well done.
Battery recycling will just become into urban recycling and no more high scale mining projects around 2050. But 2030 should be a great start in recycling due to cars on the road end of life.
One angle that will eventually have an impact on lithium supply will be the growing recycling stream. Maybe it won't be a big player even by 2030 but for sure in the 2030s the trickle of lithium raw materials coming in from recycled packs will become a major source.
As long as you are growing exponentially the recycling stream will not solve your sourcing issues because the material available through recycling is what you shipped 10-15 years ago, i.e. a small fraction of current demand.
@@Martinit0 But it will catch up eventually. There will be a tipping point where virgin mined raw materials will peak and recycled materials will become majority. But even before that happens you can't discount the impact on pricing and lower emissions that the recycle stream will contribute even when it is only at 25% or even say 10% of materials going into new EVs in the future. Someday though, once the global light transportation fleet has replaced almost all of the ICEs with EVs, then the recycle stream will make up almost all of the materials going back into new vehicles. It likely won't ever be 100% though due to some material loss in the process and accounting for developing countries' growing consumption for vehicles.
It's been a great series and will be interesting to compare over the next 7 years. Regarding Elon/Tesla and Lithium; one of Elon's strengths is master level strategy and logistics planning . I don't think for a second that he's only planned this out for three years. My bet is that there are dozens of projects and contracts that will ensure Tesla's Lithium supply well past 2030. It is just much to important a core supply issue.
He doesn't plan beyound 2-3 years. He's not a planner, he's a visionary and he solves the problems in front of him on the way to the vision. That's very different from long term planning. He's even said 2 years is considered long term for Tesla. NOTE: That doesn't mean the first principles decisions he makes don't have impacts on a long timeframe, only that it's not for planning reasons, it's because he doesn't like doing things the stupid way.
Tesla will always have some limitation in their way. That’s the nature of changing the world. But it is great to see well researched and analyzed materials. Not easy to get such insight.
Sometimes we narrow our vision and fail to see the bigger picture. Such as using AI and HVDC interconnectors we can reduce the need for stationary storage. Likewise pump water storage and vehicle to grid will reduce the need for grid scale storage.
No it will not. We in Europe have exhausted the pump storage places and vehicles are not available for energy storage most of the time. Netherlands does the right thing. Install grid batteries as fast as they can.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 an average car globally that is personal use sits 95%+ of its entire life. V2x would absolutely help stabilize the grid and reduce total bess system demands at scale.
@@4literv6 Poor car! Ours do not. Sit 95% of the time anywhere they could be plugged in that is. Do you only buy your cars to let them sit in your garage and admire them 95% of all time? We do not. We are very poor and cannot afford the tools we buy to sit around idle. Thats why i have bought Teslas for all employees, because they offer the most bang for the Euro. EVs could reduce the stress on the local grid up to the next transformer if they are available all the time in peak demands or production. Alas they are not most of the time. A decent sized solar battery with fixed installation and connection to the grid operator makes much more sense. As is being done in many parts in the US, Finland, UK, Australia and elsewhere. Sadly not around here because our electric utility companies have somewhat slept through the Computer and Internet age. Maybe they wake up now?
@@wolfgangpreier9160 I'd genuinely be curious to see teslas data on just how often your cars are actually in motion vs stopped daily? I'd bet unless you are using them exclusively for commercial purposes which they are not intended for. Hence why I very clearly state personal use vehicle's sit over 95% of their average life span. Then they aren't much different than any other non commercial use vehicle. 😏 My cars sit at the house, gym, work sites, malls, movie theaters and restaurants or others home's, sometimes state parks&museum's. Guess which one of those locations doesn't have any ev charging available vs a gas pump? Gee v2x suddenly makes good sense. 😁
If mining is the limitation and refining is getting the profit, then Tesla focusing on refining is best since it will lower refining profit and enable more profit pass through to mining which will lead to increase in production.
Mining gets as much profit if not more Overall, there's a lot of mental gymnastics going on here that might work in PowerPoint, but may not work in reality
What about alternatives to batteries for utility scale energy? Currently (pun intended), Tesla is putting batteries into Megapacks for utility scale energy storage. If there were a Lithium shortage that dramatically increased (doubled, quadrupled) the cost of Megapacks utilities could stick with natural gas peaking units for their no solar (night time) or no wind times. Tesla could (or would be forced to) shift batteries to vehicles. Utility scale stationary storage is growing faster than 50% from a much smaller base.
The finance equation for mines is becoming difficult. They are not going to be able to have favorable NPVs (Net Present Values) at discount rates of 7.5% finance (this is my opinion/hunch). So, new supply may not happen purely because of finance. If the business case (outside of NPV) is sound (lots of demand), then governments will get in with concessionary finance. HOWEVER, they will not allow Tesla to buy/control lithium production. In other words, governments will assign lithium to Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, etc. So, even higher cost producers will get batteries for national industrial policy reasons. Tesla needs to go upstream to own mines to derisk.
Excellent analysis. I’m thinking that other automakers will fall flat on their face and not be able to sell let alone scale up their production and fulfil their anticipated li forecasts. This should leave room for Tesla to lap up that volume.
Theres an abundance of lithium on the planet and in Australia we have mines of it in mothballs waiting fkr global demand to pickup. Its the refining of lithium hydroxied thats the limiting factor. Hence why Tesla has moved into refining.
Sorry, that was true 5 years ago but not now, as was covered earlier in the series. Second, there's a regional shortage of lithium hydroxide production, not a global shortage. Third, Drew baglino even said that mining was a concern. It was at Stanford about a year ago
You mine mothballs in Oz? Thought mothballs was benzene-based. Maybe things are upside down at the bottom of the world... Top of the mornin' to ya, mate!
Awesome as usual Jordan! The growth of Tesla is constrained by these global resource supplies and the more we know about breakthroughs or further supply “challenges” the better. We all want to see Tesla deliver on the 50% growth per year goals for many years to come, including past 2030 if possible. Every exponential growth curve eventually flattens out to an S curve but that could be after 2035 optimistically speaking
The price of Lithium-Iron batteries has dropped by 75% in the last year or so: 2022-2023. 12v 100Ah LiFePo4 batteries went from ~$1000.00 to $350.00 ... & i see batteries as low as $250, but those are probably used cells. Two years s ago the coming "Lithium shortage" was all the buzz... that didn't happen: new sourc s of lithium have popped up all over the world. a quick search on Lithium batteries will turn up a host of new manufactures with plenty of peoduct.
Tesla's 50% average annual growth rate was for auto production. The storage business is relatively small now but growing faster than the autos. Elon expected it to be eventually equal to the auto sales. Doesn't that mean Tesla's lithium needs will grow FASTER than 50% per year?
The lithium supply future is a very important constraint on production. But a battery just stores the electricity, like fuel storage tanks and gas tanks. Of course, it is a lot easier to move around electricity than fuels. However, the generation of that much electricity in the first place and the grids (instead of pipelines) though which it travels are also very important constraints. Those are certainly not evenly distributed geographically and often physically cross international political borders. Sales of EVs do follow availability of Superchargers, etc.; which depend on grids that are (comparatively) fragile infrastructures; which depend on power sources (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, petrol, gas, coal, etc.). Moreover, the whole shebang depends on innovation and market forces - as the Club of Rome found out after its depressing report in 1967 report. (Yours seems much better! 🙂)
Lithium is a manageable issue. The bulk of popular EVs will switch to cheaper sodium ion over the next 3-5 years leaving lithium for the Semi and the high performance sector. China is already planning the transition from 2024.
Very interesting analysis but you did not touch on lithium recycling which Tesla is already is building facilities to do just that. What effect would lithium recycling have on the supply side?
If you look closely at the slides, you can see in one that recycling was covered. Furthermore, this is the last video of five as per the introduction. Recycling was covered earlier in the series.
Your data about EV profitablity are outdated. According to BYD's Q2 earning report their automotive gross margin is 20.4% , another company Li auto also makes money on EVs.
We'll very likely find that the demand for Lithium begins to taper off as battery designers turn more towards other elements for battery production. One oft-touted element is of course Sodium, which is much more abundant, but there are several other abundant ones which will be more suitable for other purposes than electric propulsion. Some of them will also go into producing very viable EV batteries, with less of a mass disadvantage than might be experienced with today's technology. The biggest 'enemy' is time. More money and other resources need to be invested in battery and other electric power cell development. I don't think that Hydrogen fuel cells will be the answer, because of their inherent inefficiencies.
Because of the fires started by Batteries in these cars, claims for cars and property that catch fire, insurance premiums are rocketing and some insurers are refusing to renew policies. This situation will cause not only increased car insurance but also home and life insurance premiums to rise. First the government encourage us to buy diesel vehicles and now encourage us to buy electric vehicles and those that follow their advice end up paying the price of their insane advice. How long before: a. Two car spaces front to back and four cars side to side mandated for electric vehicles parked or driving on a highway. b. No parking near buildings, other vehicles, trees or anything combustible c. No electric vehicles to be parked in any building or garage including car parks and multi-story car parks. d. No electric vehicles to be transported on car transporters. e. Any charge stations to have two car spaces front to back and four cars side to side f. No electric vehicles allowed in tunnels or on ferries. g. No electric vehicles to be held in integral or adjacent home garages or within two car distances from a dwelling. h. No electric vehicles to be allowed on any road without a power kill switch next to the driver, to prevent cars locking up and failing to stop. i. No electric vehicles to be allowed containing a driver and passengers without manually operated door locks. (some fires have occurred where the occupants are electronically locked in when a fault occurs.) All this and shortage of charging stations, power and broken charging stations. As electricity costs rise, it is cheaper to use 'fossil fuels'. Will anyone buy an electric car in future? Time to contact the government that wants us all to have electric cars by 2035, to demand compensation for buying electric cars and for the increased vehicle, home and life insurance premiums, so we can buy a petrol vehicle.
It's almost as crazy as putting gallons of highly flammable liquid into each vehicle on the road. Unsurprisingly, gasoline vehicles result in a reported 250,000 vehicle fires each year in the US alone. But that's old news so people don't get alarmed. Battery vehicles are many times less likely to have vehicle fires.
Note: Yes, the 'Lithium Volcano' is included in this analysis. That resource has been known about for decades and Lithium Americas Corporation has been working on tapping into it at the southern edge for about 15 years now. That mine (Thacker Pass) will probably go-live in 26-27' but it's going to be a drop in the bucket compared to global lithium supply and demand.
Why did the media hype it? My understanding was that there was more research done on it. But, that doesn't change the forecast because as I covered in other videos - it takes many years to tap into these resources.
You're correct.
If the US wants to get serious about breaking China's monopoly on EV & battery metals (& it needs to) then the subsidy programs announced to bring back US manufacturing are not going to do it. It needs to find a way to reduce regulation or speed decision-making on resource development (hopefully without encouraging mining firms to continue generating the environmental disasters of the past).
It takes too long to develop resources in America. But bad practices of the mining industry are why this problem exists. Mining companies have been a disaster. Removing regulation isn't the solution: they did that in China and the nation is an environmental disaster as a result.
We need faster development. But we'll need absolutely clear and rigid standards for environmental protection, rigorous inspection & supervision, and penalties with teeth. Not fines that end up being paid by shareholders & buyers of production: we need prison sentences for operators and management and especially executive management and Board Directors. Until these people are at real risk of serious prison time, mining will not clean up its act and respect regulation.
I thought the lithium deposit you reference was large enough to support multiple mines & all US requirements for decades, but the problem was regulation makes that impossible. No?
Very rarely do I watch anything on here that leaves me feeling more informed and like I actually learned something worth learning.
Thank you sincerely for everything you do Jordan. This series has been truly AMAZING learning so far! 👍🏻😎
I'm really happy to hear that! 😊 Glad you enjoyed it
Tesla becoming involved in lithium mining, by partnering or such, could also potentially help address political risk. Governments could favor sources in their credits and/or tariffs. Local sources multiple places could reduce this risk.
0:05: 🔋 This video discusses the global lithium supply chain and its implications for Tesla.
0:05: The video is part of a two-hour long series on the global lithium supply chain.
0:26: The previous videos covered a global battery supply forecast for lithium and sodium ion batteries.
0:37: Credits and thanks are given to individuals and sources who provided valuable insights.
0:58: The video highlights the importance of understanding the quality of sources and peer review.
1:19: The information covered in the series will be analyzed in relation to Tesla.
3:11: The video aims to provide a comprehensive resource on global lithium supply and its impact on Tesla.
3:23: The opinions in the video are the creator's own, based on reconciling differing views and forecasts within the lithium industry.
4:12: 🔋 Tesla's battery demand is projected to grow from 16% of global supply in 2021 to 47% in 2030, but they may face government pushback and competition from other automakers in the latter half of the decade.
4:12: Tesla expects to use between 150 to 200 GWh of battery cells this year and aims to consume 3 TWh per year by 2030.
5:22: Tesla's battery demand as a share of global supply is projected to grow from 16% in 2021 to 47% in 2030.
5:46: Tesla's high margin allows them to pay more for batteries and gain greater access to battery supply.
5:59: Tesla's battery supply is somewhat variable to price and dependent on their planned battery supply for each product.
6:07: Tesla's ability to secure greater cell supply depends on their buying power and willingness to pay higher prices.
6:22: Tesla's success in securing battery supply may put struggling competitors out of business.
6:46: At some point in the latter half of the decade, Tesla may face government pushback and competition from other automakers and energy storage manufacturers.
7:10: 🔋 Tesla may face challenges in consuming more than a third of global battery supply by 2028, but becoming more active in the lithium mining industry could help mitigate the potential lithium crunch.
7:10: Tesla could end up with a 50% market share in the best case scenario, but it will be difficult to consume more than a third of global battery supply.
8:21: If Tesla doesn't take a more active role in lithium mining, they may face a lithium crunch as early as 2026.
8:35: Tesla's rate of battery consumption growth may drop from 50% in 2027 to lower percentages in subsequent years.
9:05: Tesla tends to sign with the largest lithium producers in the world, but doesn't advertise it.
9:16: The absence of information about Tesla's lithium supply isn't necessarily a cause for concern.
10:09: Even if Tesla can't fully cover the supply gap, becoming more active in the lithium mining industry could be beneficial.
10:32: Tesla is currently paying large margins to lithium miners and refiners, which could amount to over a billion dollars per year.
10:43: 🔋 Tesla may need to take a more active role in lithium mining to reduce the cost of batteries and ensure a stable supply.
10:43: The better the battery industry gets at manufacturing batteries, the higher the cost of raw materials.
11:08: Tesla wants to secure as much lithium as possible at the lowest cost to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.
11:20: Lithium miners prioritize maximizing profits and minimizing risk, which may not align with Tesla's goals.
11:31: Vertical integration into lithium mining can help Tesla control their own destiny and reduce reliance on third parties.
12:08: Tesla can finance or partner with struggling mining projects to secure a stable supply of lithium.
12:30: Tesla could consider buying a major mining company to increase extraction speed and redirect lithium supply.
13:15: Tesla has been cautious about entering the lithium mining industry due to social and environmental concerns, future lithium supply projections, and resource allocation.
14:21: 💡 Despite the challenges, Tesla is likely to get into lithium mining in the future due to Elon Musk's course-correcting nature.
14:21: Elon Musk may be overoptimistic about lithium mining and underestimate non-technical challenges.
14:56: Tesla is expected to take more aggressive action in securing lithium supply in the next few years.
15:08: Other battery chemistries like vanadium flow and liquid metal batteries won't scale quickly enough to make a big impact by the end of the decade.
15:25: Sodium ion batteries, while ready for commercialization, are unlikely to take more than a third of the market by the end of the decade.
15:39: Each battery chemistry has specific use cases and may not overlap with lithium or sodium ion batteries.
16:02: The full video will contain extra content and a summary for quick sharing.
16:50: The video provides comprehensive information on lithium supply and relies on the support of viewers.
Recap by Tammy AI
Summation: 4 minutes repeating that this video is a compressive resource. 10 minutes of saying Tesla needs more lithium & is willing to pay more. 2 minutes on chemistries. Final minute, saying that this video is a comprehensive resource.
Loved the acknowledgement you got on Tesla Daily for your 4860 battery prediction that was spot on.
I get Tesla getting into mining is not ideal, but I do wonder if they could innovate the industry. Mining might be another industry needing a fresh pair of eyes on how things are done.
Great job as usual Jordan.
Thanks man!
Simply an amazing series. Caught you on RK Equity with Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper and thought you were good there as well. They are solid.
I believe voir dire actually comes from the french language for the verbs to see and to speak. Often the legal system uses sort of archaic phrases that actually are pretty simple to understand when translated.
Literally, "To look, to say".
Thomas Jefferson's influence. Although US law grew out of the Code of Virginia and British law, many French idioms were adopted as "face validity" that the founders felt would be perceived as distancing the nation from tyrants like George III, codified in Virginia's slogan: sic semper tyrannus.
Always informative. Excellent work!
🤜🤛🤠
Another exceptionally good video Jordan. I know this is your specialty or area of expertise but i think youd be excellent for documentaries of any topic.
Thanks man! I'd like to make documentaries on other topics! But, I'd have to start another channel and clone myself, lol
Very thought provoking. Few factors that might alleviate the supply pressure:
1. Recycling of Li batteries - As EVs mature the end-of-life batteries will be recycled back to original materials that will be much cheaper to process. Tesla has already stated that they will be recycling at the Giga factories. AL, PB are excellent examples
2. As the demand soars the manufacturing and refining process will get much more efficient.
3. Higher demand will lead to major discoveries of raw material. Think shale oil.
1) This included recycling
2) Not this decade
3) The discovories are already there, it's permitting.
It's worth watching the other videos.
Excellent analysis 👍👍👍🙏
Did you look at recycling batteries to supplement mining for lithium supply out towards 2030. I suspect it would still be fairly small, then grow larger after 2030. Sorry if I missed this point in the videos. Also enjoy the videos very well done.
Yes, this includes recycling.
Battery recycling will just become into urban recycling and no more high scale mining projects around 2050. But 2030 should be a great start in recycling due to cars on the road end of life.
Thanks!
🤗 THANKS JORDAN,GREAT SUMMARY AND THANK YOUR SOURCES ALSO 🤗💚💚💚
And thank you for the support!
What a great series. Tahnk you Jordan :)
You're most welcome Jon!
Thanks Jordan!
Sure thing Mark!
One angle that will eventually have an impact on lithium supply will be the growing recycling stream. Maybe it won't be a big player even by 2030 but for sure in the 2030s the trickle of lithium raw materials coming in from recycled packs will become a major source.
This included recycling. Yes, it'll be bigger in mid 2030s
As long as you are growing exponentially the recycling stream will not solve your sourcing issues because the material available through recycling is what you shipped 10-15 years ago, i.e. a small fraction of current demand.
@@Martinit0 But it will catch up eventually. There will be a tipping point where virgin mined raw materials will peak and recycled materials will become majority. But even before that happens you can't discount the impact on pricing and lower emissions that the recycle stream will contribute even when it is only at 25% or even say 10% of materials going into new EVs in the future.
Someday though, once the global light transportation fleet has replaced almost all of the ICEs with EVs, then the recycle stream will make up almost all of the materials going back into new vehicles. It likely won't ever be 100% though due to some material loss in the process and accounting for developing countries' growing consumption for vehicles.
It's been a great series and will be interesting to compare over the next 7 years. Regarding Elon/Tesla and Lithium; one of Elon's strengths is master level strategy and logistics planning . I don't think for a second that he's only planned this out for three years. My bet is that there are dozens of projects and contracts that will ensure Tesla's Lithium supply well past 2030. It is just much to important a core supply issue.
He doesn't plan beyound 2-3 years. He's not a planner, he's a visionary and he solves the problems in front of him on the way to the vision. That's very different from long term planning.
He's even said 2 years is considered long term for Tesla.
NOTE: That doesn't mean the first principles decisions he makes don't have impacts on a long timeframe, only that it's not for planning reasons, it's because he doesn't like doing things the stupid way.
Thanks!
Fantastic series.
Tesla will always have some limitation in their way. That’s the nature of changing the world. But it is great to see well researched and analyzed materials. Not easy to get such insight.
Thanks man!
Outstanding report and series.
Sometimes we narrow our vision and fail to see the bigger picture. Such as using AI and HVDC interconnectors we can reduce the need for stationary storage. Likewise pump water storage and vehicle to grid will reduce the need for grid scale storage.
I'm taking that into account.
No it will not. We in Europe have exhausted the pump storage places and vehicles are not available for energy storage most of the time. Netherlands does the right thing. Install grid batteries as fast as they can.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 an average car globally that is personal use sits 95%+ of its entire life.
V2x would absolutely help stabilize the grid and reduce total bess system demands at scale.
@@4literv6 Poor car! Ours do not. Sit 95% of the time anywhere they could be plugged in that is.
Do you only buy your cars to let them sit in your garage and admire them 95% of all time?
We do not. We are very poor and cannot afford the tools we buy to sit around idle.
Thats why i have bought Teslas for all employees, because they offer the most bang for the Euro.
EVs could reduce the stress on the local grid up to the next transformer if they are available all the time in peak demands or production. Alas they are not most of the time.
A decent sized solar battery with fixed installation and connection to the grid operator makes much more sense. As is being done in many parts in the US, Finland, UK, Australia and elsewhere.
Sadly not around here because our electric utility companies have somewhat slept through the Computer and Internet age. Maybe they wake up now?
@@wolfgangpreier9160 I'd genuinely be curious to see teslas data on just how often your cars are actually in motion vs stopped daily?
I'd bet unless you are using them exclusively for commercial purposes which they are not intended for. Hence why I very clearly state personal use vehicle's sit over 95% of their average life span. Then they aren't much different than any other non commercial use vehicle. 😏
My cars sit at the house, gym, work sites, malls, movie theaters and restaurants or others home's, sometimes state parks&museum's.
Guess which one of those locations doesn't have any ev charging available vs a gas pump? Gee v2x suddenly makes good sense. 😁
Thanks!
Australia has a large mine in WA operating and ramping one of the worlds largest, no shortage of lithium processing ramping all over
I covered that earlier in the series.
Thank you!
If mining is the limitation and refining is getting the profit, then Tesla focusing on refining is best since it will lower refining profit and enable more profit pass through to mining which will lead to increase in production.
Mining gets as much profit if not more
Overall, there's a lot of mental gymnastics going on here that might work in PowerPoint, but may not work in reality
What about alternatives to batteries for utility scale energy?
Currently (pun intended), Tesla is putting batteries into Megapacks for utility scale energy storage. If there were a Lithium shortage that dramatically increased (doubled, quadrupled) the cost of Megapacks utilities could stick with natural gas peaking units for their no solar (night time) or no wind times. Tesla could (or would be forced to) shift batteries to vehicles. Utility scale stationary storage is growing faster than 50% from a much smaller base.
I'll cover that in my grid storage series
What happened with the extraction of lithium clays in the desert southwest?
No clue!
The finance equation for mines is becoming difficult. They are not going to be able to have favorable NPVs (Net Present Values) at discount rates of 7.5% finance (this is my opinion/hunch). So, new supply may not happen purely because of finance. If the business case (outside of NPV) is sound (lots of demand), then governments will get in with concessionary finance. HOWEVER, they will not allow Tesla to buy/control lithium production. In other words, governments will assign lithium to Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, etc. So, even higher cost producers will get batteries for national industrial policy reasons. Tesla needs to go upstream to own mines to derisk.
Great point!
Excellent analysis. I’m thinking that other automakers will fall flat on their face and not be able to sell let alone scale up their production and fulfil their anticipated li forecasts. This should leave room for Tesla to lap up that volume.
Theres an abundance of lithium on the planet and in Australia we have mines of it in mothballs waiting fkr global demand to pickup.
Its the refining of lithium hydroxied thats the limiting factor. Hence why Tesla has moved into refining.
Sorry, that was true 5 years ago but not now, as was covered earlier in the series.
Second, there's a regional shortage of lithium hydroxide production, not a global shortage.
Third, Drew baglino even said that mining was a concern. It was at Stanford about a year ago
You mine mothballs in Oz? Thought mothballs was benzene-based. Maybe things are upside down at the bottom of the world... Top of the mornin' to ya, mate!
Awesome as usual Jordan! The growth of Tesla is constrained by these global resource supplies and the more we know about breakthroughs or further supply “challenges” the better. We all want to see Tesla deliver on the 50% growth per year goals for many years to come, including past 2030 if possible. Every exponential growth curve eventually flattens out to an S curve but that could be after 2035 optimistically speaking
Thanks for the well reasoned comment! 🔥
The price of Lithium-Iron batteries has dropped by 75% in the last year or so: 2022-2023.
12v 100Ah LiFePo4 batteries went from ~$1000.00 to $350.00 ... & i see batteries as low as $250, but those are probably used cells.
Two years s ago the coming "Lithium shortage" was all the buzz...
that didn't happen: new sourc s of lithium have popped up all over the world.
a quick search on Lithium batteries will turn up a host of new manufactures with plenty of peoduct.
Watch the whole series on the 'lithium shortage.' What you're saying doesn't match the reality. It's ret-conning things to suit a narrative.
Model 2 needs to be sodium ion battery powered
Covered in my battery roadmaps video
Thank you Jordan - excellent as always.
Tesla's 50% average annual growth rate was for auto production. The storage business is relatively small now but growing faster than the autos. Elon expected it to be eventually equal to the auto sales. Doesn't that mean Tesla's lithium needs will grow FASTER than 50% per year?
Depends on your assumptions for pack size
@@thelimitingfactor I make no assumptions. I just go by what Musk has said.
Well, then go by Elon's assumptions for pack size and you should have your answer.
@@thelimitingfactor What does pack size have to do with anything? I'm pretty sure Musk was talking about revenue.
Tesla has strong ties with Redwood Materials, so would it be possible that Tesla gets recycled lithium in a substantial amount from them?
That's included in this forecast.
Isn't there a volcano in Nevada or something?
That's included here. That volcano and the lithium in it has been known about for decades. It was a slow news day so they resurrected the story.
@@thelimitingfactor wait what? lol
@@thelimitingfactor So lame mediapeeps magmafied the issue?
The lithium supply future is a very important constraint on production. But a battery just stores the electricity, like fuel storage tanks and gas tanks. Of course, it is a lot easier to move around electricity than fuels. However, the generation of that much electricity in the first place and the grids (instead of pipelines) though which it travels are also very important constraints. Those are certainly not evenly distributed geographically and often physically cross international political borders. Sales of EVs do follow availability of Superchargers, etc.; which depend on grids that are (comparatively) fragile infrastructures; which depend on power sources (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, petrol, gas, coal, etc.). Moreover, the whole shebang depends on innovation and market forces - as the Club of Rome found out after its depressing report in 1967 report. (Yours seems much better! 🙂)
Good job Sir
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
I've forgotten... When does recycled lithium enter the supply chain? Is it soon enough to impact Tesla's plans?
I covered this in previous videos. That's included in this forecast
Lithium is a manageable issue. The bulk of popular EVs will switch to cheaper sodium ion over the next 3-5 years leaving lithium for the Semi and the high performance sector. China is already planning the transition from 2024.
I've already covered this thoroughly in other videos.
Sodium ion is important, but it won't make any big difference until after 2027.
Very interesting analysis but you did not touch on lithium recycling which Tesla is already is building facilities to do just that. What effect would lithium recycling have on the supply side?
If you look closely at the slides, you can see in one that recycling was covered.
Furthermore, this is the last video of five as per the introduction.
Recycling was covered earlier in the series.
I’ll go with Tesla leveling at 42.0% of the world’s battery supply.
🙏
Your data about EV profitablity are outdated. According to BYD's Q2 earning report their automotive gross margin is 20.4% , another company Li auto also makes money on EVs.
It changes by quarter and this was written about 5 months ago
@@thelimitingfactor fair enough...other than that anylasis was top notch as always
Thanks!
Thank you, Michael!
Don't neglect the other relevant squares on the periodic table. We should see sodium/sulfur batteries in more and more cars as one example.
Sodium sulphur isn't suitable for vehicles. They need to run at hundreds of degrees celsius
They just found the largest lithium deposit in the United States.
Read the pinned comment
In 2030 25% of their lithium will be from used tesla batteries.
Depends on how fast they grow
If it's fast as they intend to, probably more like 10%
We'll very likely find that the demand for Lithium begins to taper off as battery designers turn more towards other elements for battery production. One oft-touted element is of course Sodium, which is much more abundant, but there are several other abundant ones which will be more suitable for other purposes than electric propulsion. Some of them will also go into producing very viable EV batteries, with less of a mass disadvantage than might be experienced with today's technology. The biggest 'enemy' is time. More money and other resources need to be invested in battery and other electric power cell development. I don't think that Hydrogen fuel cells will be the answer, because of their inherent inefficiencies.
Already covered in the series. this forecast includes sodium
Just curious. De people here think that recycled battery material will be a significant portion of used materials by 2030 and is so, how big?
It's minor, maybe 5 to 10% in 2030.
As per the notes on one of the slides, it included recycled material
@@thelimitingfactor Thanks, didn't notice...
Thanks!
Thanks!
You're most welcome! Thanks for the support
If Progressive humankind shows some teeth and aggressively takes over all lithium mines then we are set for many years.
No. We got enough lithium. But not enough refineries.
Sure, let our incompetent government take it over. No thanks.
Because of the fires started by Batteries in these cars, claims for cars and property that catch fire, insurance premiums are rocketing and some insurers are refusing to renew policies. This situation will cause not only increased car insurance but also home and life insurance premiums to rise. First the government encourage us to buy diesel vehicles and now encourage us to buy electric vehicles and those that follow their advice end up paying the price of their insane advice. How long before:
a. Two car spaces front to back and four cars side to side mandated for electric vehicles parked or driving on a highway.
b. No parking near buildings, other vehicles, trees or anything combustible
c. No electric vehicles to be parked in any building or garage including car parks and multi-story car parks.
d. No electric vehicles to be transported on car transporters.
e. Any charge stations to have two car spaces front to back and four cars side to side
f. No electric vehicles allowed in tunnels or on ferries.
g. No electric vehicles to be held in integral or adjacent home garages or within two car distances from a dwelling.
h. No electric vehicles to be allowed on any road without a power kill switch next to the driver, to prevent cars locking up and failing to stop.
i. No electric vehicles to be allowed containing a driver and passengers without manually operated door locks. (some fires have occurred where the occupants are electronically locked in when a fault occurs.)
All this and shortage of charging stations, power and broken charging stations. As electricity costs rise, it is cheaper to use 'fossil fuels'. Will anyone buy an electric car in future? Time to contact the government that wants us all to have electric cars by 2035, to demand compensation for buying electric cars and for the increased vehicle, home and life insurance premiums, so we can buy a petrol vehicle.
I think you're confusing them with hoverboards
@@thelimitingfactorWell played sir😂
It's almost as crazy as putting gallons of highly flammable liquid into each vehicle on the road. Unsurprisingly, gasoline vehicles result in a reported 250,000 vehicle fires each year in the US alone. But that's old news so people don't get alarmed. Battery vehicles are many times less likely to have vehicle fires.
Does your psychologist offer a money-back guarantee?
you know why i know you're a elon simp? cuz you're calling it X. not many signs of bias in your videos, but calling it X is defo one
Thanks for commenting! It helps my channel, which in turns helps me continue to simp for Elon.
@@thelimitingfactor Ow it burns!
@@thelimitingfactor the antonym for 'simp' (for sympathize with) is 'disp' (for disparage) as I disp for Charles Windsor...