Issue with russia producing parts is that planes with those will not be accepted into any other country's airspace even if sanctions are lifted. Manufacturers are extremely strict about having a clear line of "ownership" for every single tiny part of the aircraft, as soon as that is broken in a plane, as in a part that was not manufactured by an officially allowed body is used, that plane is as good as garbage from an international point of view.
Exactly. Which is why when western aircraft find their way to Iran they stay there until they die. No one else would take them due to the lack of a parts paper trail.
@@luci75d76 All aircraft parts have serial numbers which are tracked on a global maintenace network, some parts are critical and have a set amount of hours they are allowed to be used. All parts must be certified by the manufacture of the aircraft for safety reason. You mess with this system and your in big trouble and if Russia starts making parts and they dont meet the standards required well lets see how many people want to fly on those planes once they start crashing from sub standard parts and maintance.
@@luci75d76 parts have "expiration dates". Basically every X years you need to either get the parts checked to see any sort of damage/wear, or in more critical cases change the part (usually some engine parts for example) no matter what. If that is not done for an airplane, it loses what's called "air worthiness certificate". Since these parts are tracked, Boeing and Airbus and others know exactly how many parts are available in Russia for example (this is tied to the line of ownership, this is how they can recall all parts they need if a flaw is found). So it is true that russians can lie that they used part#12345 for the mandatory replace in airplane#123, but they can't claim the same for airplane#124, so 124 lost its airworthiness certificate.
Russia as the world knows it is dead. It just hasn't quite realized it yet. It will have to be reborn, this time without the poison flowing throught its veins that is the old school USSR way of thinking. Get rid of the Soviet toxin entirely. Then it can grow up to be a healthy productive member of the European-Asian community, rather than the jobless, stealing, drunken chain-smoking Krokodil addict in the trailer park that is Russia today.
@@eddymichaels5486 No, it's actually shit. Russia isn't America and average Russian citizens didn't vote to invade Ukraine any more than the average American was consulted before we went into Iraq/Afghanistan. Before the world hit the global pariah light switch on Russia, I think that subtlety was understood. I'm libertarian so I don't care for left right politics, but imagine going abroad as an American and being blamed for whatever asinine policy the party you didn't vote for is enacting. I'm not pro-war but that doesn't mean I'm anti-Russia, it's an autocracy whose ruler has a multi-decade hold on power. Penalize or target Putin, his inner circle, possibly the oligarchs too. But average babushkas and college students and single mothers and poor village folk? Let's not be idiots about this, at some point this will become a major safety issue for Russian citizens who had nothing to do with the war, not good at all.
@@wraith8323 You made one crucial mistake. You still have a false belief in “democracy”, while blaming Russia for being autocratic. We also have the same people ruling for decades (if not centuries), except ours have the audacity to hide in the shadows and serve us an illusion of democracy. Do you really think our elected leaders have even the slightest influence? They do what they are told, and are TV actors at best. It’s only when leaders (rarely) step out of line that you know they’re not playing along. Examples include former PM of Tanzania and sitting president of Belarus.
As the leased, and now stolen, aircraft reach maintenance points, if Russian airlines keep using them they will become worthless. There is precedent. A few years ago four of the seven Turkmenistan Airlines Boeing 717s arrived in the UK off lease, and for maintenance and resale. They turned up with no paperwork indicating any maintenance, and no engineering records. There was no other option that to scrap them. The other three remain grounded as non-airworthy at Ashkhabad. Turkmenistan Airlines was banned from Europe for maintenance, and therefore safety, violations. No lessor will do business in Russia again, until such time as their upcoming financial losses are settled. The outlook for the airline business in Russia looks very bleak.
Russians want be sitting on their hands. A big country will use them internally until they replace them with their own or imports from China. Sanctions work both ways! Stealing Russian $300 billion and its citizens wealth will hurt the people. Things want ever return to normal with Russia. They dont trust Europe or the US and dont want to do business with them. Grow potatos its what kept Russia going through sanctions and wars. Times are changing for the World.
@@helenegan1079 Thing is, neither Russia nor China has the production capacity to replace the western fleet of their respective airlines. In the case of China that will certainly work its way out, especially since they have no problem relying on western parts for their airline projects as they are not hit with sanctions. However, that does mean that they cannot supply those planes to Russia until the sanctions cease, or the chinese companies will be hit with sanctions as well. Which is why all the big suppliers in China already stated that they will not supply spare parts to russian airlines for their western fleet. Additionally, the biggest leasing companies in the world are still western ones, which are unlikely to help russian airlines to buy new planes as long as those same airlines have basically stolen the planes from those leasing companies. After all, all leasing contracts were lawfully terminated and according to the Cape Town Convention, to which Russia is a signatory state, those planes have to be handed over to those leasing companies with full documentation. Of course, the $300 Billion are not stolen (transferred from the Russian central bank to other entities), they are merely frozen, still belonging to the Russian central bank, just selling and moving it is not allowed. Which is why it cannot be used to transfer it to Ukraine for war reparations and those leasing companies to reimburse them for Russias usual kleptocracy.
Do the lessons have any leverage over what Aeroflot will be able to do it it's permission to fly in the States and Europe is returned? Or any way of making them pay for the aircraft they basically stole?
@@jamesgorman5241 Assuming the stolen aircraft go out of the maintenance system and become technically worthless, no lessor or manufacturer will do business with Russia again until those financial losses are covered. I highly suspect Russian airlines will have to buy aircraft outright and pay up-front in the future.
You forget one mayor issue. Aeroflot's only certificed shop with mechanichs, with access to spareparts for Boing and Airbus planes, are located in Hamburg Germany. Then Aeroflot will be back to the 80's, with planes falling out of the sky, or passengers, falling...
Also to note that the Sukhoi Superjets have French engine parts, so they will end up grounded for lack of spares too. Russian airlines won't even be able to use these on international flights. They might not be stolen, but they will certainly be impounded anywhere in Europe, and held by courts acting for the lessors. There will be no Russian airlines performing international flights, until the lessors recoup their losses.
According to Wikipedia (which lists Interfax as the source), in November 2021 UAC announced the establishment of a stockpile of 40 SaM146 engines. They said it was "to enable quicker repairs", which I guess is technically true, since counterfeiting is a lot slower than cannibalizing.
>>There will be not new russian airplanes, bcs their need import parts >MC-21 plane, and newest "TU-" planes, they like: Don't tell him >Also, China can give their newest three new types of planes Boo-hoo... like srsly, "Russia are not have alternatives"? Yes, they have. And a ton. So, b_tch please.
One thing I wish to reiterate is that Russia is not some backwater country. it has an active aircraft manufacturing capacity and all that industry will gradually reawaken and retooled to perform what its economy demand of it. Copyright law and Intellectual property rights will of course be pushed aside for a more friendlier intellectual right regime like that of china.
It is not only a matter of reverse Engineering and manufacturing parts that violate copyright/trademarks and intellectual property rights, it is a sure and guaranteed way to revoke the airworthiness certificate since parts not certified for the aircraft by non-certified suppliers/manufacturers would be installed. At this point, the airworthiness certificate for all these Western built aircrafts have been revoked as I understand it.
The 320neo fleet can’t be an average age of 6 years, the 320neo had just entered service 6 years ago commercially. Aeroflot received their first one last year.
The Sukhoi jet may be built in Russia, but its engines are joint venture between russian firm and France's Safran. Uses Thales avionics, Messier-Dowty landing gear, Honeywell for APU and many others. So a lot of work will be needed to "convert" this aircraft to be Russian only. (and parts for existing fleets will also be hard to get). The USSR was good at copying the west. Many of its jets were copied from western jets. The Concorded was copied into TU-144. The Space Shuttle copied into Buran. Digital Equipment Corp (then second largest computer maker) had etched "when you care enough to steal the very best" in russian cyrrilic onto the CVAX chip itself because they knew that despite export bans, Russia still was able to acquire a few vaxes and then copy the chips and computer system. But all of these copies, from planes to computers were late and none worked as well as the original. Right now, my guess is that Aeroflot and others are doing planning based on assumtion war will be short lived and life returns to normal for parts/planes/maintenance and progressively cannibalize as needed. But there will come a point where they have to pivot to plan for long term business without any western parts. Copying an engine isn't that simple. I assume that Russian government will bail out Aeroflot shareholders by buying back what it doesn't already own and then keep it alive via subsidies.
According to Wikipedia (which lists Interfax as the source), UAC has supposedly has a stockpile of 40 SaM146 engines. According to UAC, they purchased these engines "to enable quicker repairs". They announced this in November of 2021, so I'm not sure if I really believe the official reason. Regardless, 40 engines would provide a lot of spare parts. Also, copying engine parts isn't a problem for Russia. The Iranians sort of figured it out, their Boeings flew for decades without any US support whatsoever, and they didn't have a domestic aerospace industry beforehand (unlike Russia, which does). The real problem for Russia will be getting those engines certified outside of Russia.
@N Fels I apologize for the late response. But what worked for Iran will absolutely work for Russia. Firstly, you say that “most of the world” has put sanctions on Russia and that’s simply not true. The west and most of its allies have put sanctions on Russia, but no one else has. This will obviously complicate the acquisition of parts through illegal means, but I highly doubt that it will stop it. Secondly, Iran had absolutely no aerospace industry to speak of when it was put under sanctions. Russia does have an aerospace industry. Regardless of how backward it is, this fact will make it significantly easier for them compared to Iran.
If Russian companies use non-approved parts on the planes (if they manufacture them by reverse engineering or whatever), the value of those would plummet instantly since it wouldn't have a proper maintenance record. I doubt they will go for that.
@@gretchenalleman506 The leasing companies have to sue the russian companies anyway, after all they failed to follow international law (Cape Town Convention, Russia is a signatory state) and return the planes at the end of their lease (all leases were terminated in accordance with the lease contracts) with full documentation to the leasing companies. Now, the leasing companies do have insurance, so it will be litigation between all concerned parties for the next decade at least. And of course Russian airlines will have a hard time ever leasing planes from those companies of course.
Aeroflot has pretty much collapsed as an airliner. Beyond its garbage internal network, its foreign routes are lost and the slots are already getting refilled by foreign carriers eager to access the newly-available markets (ex: London-Heathrow).
I heard a Russian airliner at Copenhagen airport. It was WAAAY louder than the western planes, and not in a good way. It sounded like it was grinding itself apart or preparing to explode. I would not get on one, wouldn't even want to be anywhere near it.
Told y’all about reverse engineering when this started to happen. Ain’t no way though those pilots have enough confidence to pilots such planes when things to start to break down.
getting Russian made spares certified internationally may be a problem meaning the aircraft's value is hurt significantly due to the use of parts that are not approved for use.....even current Russian made planes use many parts from other countries.....from tires to complex navigational computers.....replacing the later is non-trivial....
As it currently stands, no matter if repaired via home grown counterfeit parts or contraband, these planes will not be allowed to travel to almost all countries. Aeroflot will not be able to survive with China, Belarus and Iran as their only destinations, as all other countries will be penalised if they allow them to land.
Exactly! These planes are considered stolen goods and, if they land anywhere civilized, they will be subject to seizure and returned to lessors. Nationalizing foreign leased assets was a *profoundly* stupid idea that will have ramifications for Russia for a generation or more.
@@monodeldiablo actually Russians said that money for leasing can be obtained from frozen accounts in Europe. Btw the situation is not that clear and on my opinion Europe did more such illegal things.
@@Atmosfearzx Source? Russian authorities have repeatedly referred to the frozen assets as "stolen", so I sincerely doubt they've also given the green light to leading companies to raid those assets. And the fact the lessors just filed insurance claims for $3.5 billion strongly implies they don't believe you either.
@@Atmosfearzx opinions usually come up with evidence. The EU's aviation authority is very independent and penalises airlines and various Member States for even small abuses. So would love to see examples. In this particular case, it was lawyers for courts who suggested prior to action taken TO ENSURE legality. The cost of illegal invasion of a sovereign state is not just making people angry. Russian aviation is all but destroyed fora decade and the blame sits with their (your?) government alone.
Seems like counterfeit replacement parts would damage the safety reputation of these aircraft types when bad things start happening and negative publicity possibly going to the OEM manufacturers if investigations try reporting that it was a manufacturing defect. Or even worse, if it actually was an original equipment manufacturing defect, manufacturers can blame it on phantom counterfeit parts that might have actually been OEM.
On the 24th February over 12 hours after the invasion of Ukraine, Airbus allowed Aeroflot to take delivery of a brand new A350-941 reg VP-BYF. The aircraft made a couple of round trips from Moscow to Havana, but is now grounded. That is probably the last the lessors will see of that aircraft. U$300m written off.
I guess Airbus didn't have a choice at this point, since they did not sell the aircraft to Aeroflot but to a leasing company. It would have been the job of the leasing company to stop the delivery. The sanctions came later however. But A 350s are way more complicated and sophisticated than 737s or A 320s, with a more advanced electronic system and more exotic materials. Such an aircraft is much harder to keep flight worthy without manufacturer support than aircraft designed 30 years ago
Please find below the second definition of "conflict", as per Cambridge Dictionary: *Fighting between two or more groups of people or countries* "We wish to avoid conflict between our countries if at all possible."
The lack of international flights means a bunch of aircraft are presently in a storage state. Effectively the Russian airlines that have overseas routes have just been put back 2 years to the start of the pandemic hemorrhaging cash by having the planes parked beyond a few friendly countries they still fly to.
@@beatnik8983 I'd expect one of two things to happen: 1: Cannibalize other aircraft that were just nationalized (part of the foreign lease) of the same model for maintenance components. 2: Reverse engineer components However the airlines themselves are in an untenable scenario. By Russia re-creating a "RU-" the leased aircraft won't be viewed as air worthy. Now to be fair the Antinov 225 (that was just destroyed) had been cannibalized for components to keep the Antinov 124 flying. Then it was refit and re-certified. It is just a very labour intense process to get an air craft deemed air worthy again. I'd expect the aircraft to be forced through a "D Check" (essentially where the entire airplane is rebuilt and all systems certified as working. I know I've gone a bit off topic. In the short term Russia airplanes can and likely will fly within the country. But after a few months the effects of the airplane sanctions will be felt.
@@beatnik8983 As far as i know Putin usually flies only in russian build airplanes anyway, so he personally will not be hit by those sanctions. That said, since he is too afraid to show up anywhere public anyway, he is just holed up in some secure location creating a very strong resemblance of Hitler in his bunker during the last year in WW2.
It would be interesting to hear SkyTeam talking about the future with Aeroflot. With the “nationalization” or shall we say theft of a large part of the fleet, these planes will be worthless and most likely not welcomed internationally. I just don’t see the purpose of an airline alliance member that can’t fly else than within its borders and with aircrafts that can’t be considered safe.
I can easily see in the future that leases on aircraft will become much more expensive for Aeroflot. If I owned aircraft valued at millions of dollars, I would be super hesitant to lease to Russian companies in the future since they have basically stolen all of the ones that have not be seized yet.
All aircraft parts have serial numbers which are tracked on a global maintenace network, some parts are critical and have a set amount of hours they are allowed to be used. All parts must be certified by the manufacture of the aircraft for safety reason. You mess with this system and your in big trouble and if Russia starts making parts and they dont meet the standards required well lets see how many people want to fly on those planes once they start crashing from sub standard parts and maintance.
Well, if most of the engineering happening in these countries, then it is most of the world in these aspects. If we were talking about international community referring to bananas, then it will be south america dominating in the aspects. Aspects related to bananas.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Aeroflot among other Russian Airlines returned their leased aircraft. If Russian airlines want to keep good will with lessors, they’d better return their leased planes.
That's a nice thought but it would appear that pretty much everything in Russia is becoming "state owned". Aeroflot will not have any real say in what happens to them or the aircraft. It seems as if Russia is returning to its former self, the USSR. The people of Ukraine are suffering now, the people of Russia are going to be suffering soon. All because of one douchebag.
Yes -- it's a nice thought but we know better and some of those aircraft will be stolen -- we're dealing with a nut job there in Russia and common sense won't apply.
@@qiyuxuan9437 they can be allowed with special clearances. For example, few weeks ago a Russian plane delivered radioactive fuel for the nuclear power plants in Slovakia. So, if the Russians will call the leasing companies about returning them back their airplanes, believe me, they will be able fly to Europe without any problems. Maybe they allow for the pilots also a special flight for returning back to Russia.
You mentioned development of the CR-929. I thought that it relied significant Western suppliers of sub-assemblies (like landing gear, avionics, etc.). I may have details confused with the C-919 though. Please produce a video on developments with these planes in the new situation.
The CR-929 is still in development and I don't think anything has been finalized (like the engines it will use). So it's likely that they will just replace all of the western made parts with Russian or Chinese made parts.
@@alexanderstone9463 It would be stupid for China to make this deal with Russia though, it runs the risk of landing Chinese civil aviation, which is a much bigger bussiness than Russia's and vital to China's economy, in the same place as the Russian one. China operates hundreds of Airbus and Boeing too, it would be a huge loss if those become unable to fly just to sell a few planes to Russia. Also, China is entirely unproven in making jet airliners, even more so than Russia. Why would Russia buy planes from a foreign, unproven and unreliable manufacture?
@ahadicow I always assumed that it would be the Russians building the plane with Chinese support (and funds) rather than the other way around. That would probably lessen the political controversy and allow it to be produced by a more proven builder of commercial jetliners. Finally, I’m also skeptical of the extent to which the US and the EU would go to punish China for making a deal with Russia on this specific issue.
There will not be reverse engineering of any major parts (like engines). It's not practical for the amount of time they have before they need replacements.
Considering corruption shortcuts and Lord knows what in terms of parts and maintenance flying aeroflot is going to be quite a risky choice,,,but of course Russian controlled media won't be announcing the crashes,
Probably doable for 737NG, 777, A320 and A330 parts but unlikely for the A350. They're lucky they don't have 787's. 787 Cabin Air Compressors and the PECS to name a few are systems unique to the 787 and break quite regularly. And they're a necessity for aircraft operation. But it gets worse: The 787-8 and 787-9/10 main gear wheels and tires aren't even interchangeable. Great aircraft, but you do need a whole lot of unique spare parts.
Regardless of the outcome of the Ukranium war, Russia's international economic growth is seriously limited. Russia will sink further into being a 3rd world country.
Russia's aviation leaders have said it will produce a new engine for the Suhkoi 100 that will be entirely of Russian part. They have also said that the T-204/214 and the Il-96 will begin to be produced again. But manufacturing new models of these older designs will take some time. Even then they are saying the can only produce 12 to 16 models of these planes per year. I do not know the answer. I wonder if they would convert some military Il-76 aircraft to airline use. I understand they are introducing a new model of this aircraft as well.
MS-21 are due to come out in the nearest future, complete with the new and efficient engines, so the Russian aviation industry inexplicably got a huge boost in funding and it is safe to say that all of the sanctions, including aviation, just made Russia stronger and less reliant on the west.
That’s assuming any aircraft coming out of Russia will land outside of Russian influence anytime soon… given most of the bans, the planes won’t make it into the airspace, much less an airport. Plus the companies aren’t dumb enough to send their planes where they know they’ll be confiscated.
@@FlybyStardancer Correct, but how do they know which countries will seize their aircraft and which ones won't? Virtually no one outside of the West and East Asia has put formal sanctions on Russia, but that doesn't necessarily mean that those countries will be safe for Russian planes to land in. It's difficult to predict how things will play out. For instance, Turkey has readily supplied Ukraine with weapons and closed the straits in accordance with the Montreux convention, but they haven't actually sanctioned Russia, they're the only member of NATO that hasn't. Does that mean that Russian planes can land in Turkey? Possibly, but I'm not sure a Russian airline would want to test that.
Yup Aeroflot Russian Airlines will be facing alot of Problems due too what's happening in Russia going up against Ukraine so I'm watching this Video right now Awesome Video!!!!
A 320 Neos use the latest engine technology. They can park this aircraft more or less soon, since Russia can't produce certain engine parts for such modern engines (even P&W had problems with them at the beginning)
Well Russia is a very large country with many areas without road access. So they'll have a sizable domestic market. But I don't see a 777-300ER being useful there. I expect turboprop aircraft to be useful for that part of the market.
I doubt that Putin gives a damn about copyrights and so to manufacture parts for “stollen” aircrafts or cannibalize some to keep others flying. The question is that in the future leasers would willing to do business again with the Russians.
Sad to hear your guys that look at only one side of the coin. War is not ever good, but check out the reasons why wars begin and then pass on a judgement.
I think we are going to see some plane crashes in Russia in the coming year due to shoddy maintenance. My question for people who repair airplanes is how long do people think Boeing planes could be kept in the air if they scavenge parts from planes left on the ground. Let's say every plane on the ground tried to keep one flying. How long might that be? Are there enough Russian citizens trained to repair the aircraft or did they for example have people from outside Russia doing those repairs?
From weeks to at most a few months if they try to (vaguely) follow International standards. Any more than that it's pure speculation; even Russians themselves doesn't have a clue on how to proceed (btw, I'm not talking about the invasion).
I can confirm that the Russian A320 in Geneva is still there. It is sitting with no weather protection on instruments or engines. It's not going anywhere soon and has to have a complet engine overhaul if it wants to start up again.
@@AFlyingCookieLOL I live in Geneva near the airport and saw the plane parked, and a friend that works on smaller private aviation is an airplane mechanic.
I refused to fly Aerflot back when I visited USSR in 1973 and won't fly them even if I decide to visit Russia which I probably won't due to age and income issues--even after sanction are lifted. I don't trust their maintenance and if I can't trust that, I don't fly.
They could probably fly from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad by flying outside territorial waters across the Finish Gulf and the Baltic Sea. Though military aircraft will probably be escorted by fighter jets from the Estonian side. No idea how the Finish side would respond as they operate their military independently (though maybe not for long).
@@CheapBastard1988 That's exactly what they've been doing. They've been flying over the Baltic the whole way. The territorial waters of Finland and Estonia do not meet anywhere so I'm not sure why they'd have problems with the Finnish military.
You can watch "Flight Radar 24s" website to see the flights. They are still using Boeing planes for them. I see a flight to Moscow and St. Petersberg everyday which flies out over the Baltic Sea. What is more interesting to watch is the Russian military cargo planes flying there. Today one from Murmask arrived. Other have come from central Russia starting near the Ural Mountains area.
Even the russian built SSJ 100 will be grounded soon, as the fly by wire system the flight control system, the inertial navigation system and many other parts are produced and serviced by western companies! So by by Russian airline industries ...
I wouldn't want to be on the flight crew of a future long haul flight. There will be limited number of friendly places to land in the unlikely event of a emergency.
First- I could see them recertifying old retired Soviet era aircraft. Simply bringing back any remaining TU-154's for example. Second- For their widebodies they could simply run them on every other day frequencies. United did this during the pandemic. Simply fly an aircraft on 1-2 flights for the day then park it. Example- plane flies 2 flights on monday, parked on tuesday, flies on wednesday, and repeat. Third- Airframes like the 737 and A320 will be easy to locate spare parts, due to shear volume of aircraft. I would not be surprised if they have shell companies that are buying parts for these aircraft and thru some convoluted black market deals finding ways of requiring those parts. Fourth- simply buy aircraft from Russian companies and as these aircraft come off the assembly line then fly those more frequently. Then slowly remove the Airbus/Boeing aircraft. (this would be the long term plan.)
@@BrunoViniciusCampestrini That makes sense. Well, makes me wonder if Russia could ally with China and see if China can also find a way to reverse engeineer the parts.
There are a number of problems with your arguments. You can't just park a plane at the edge of an airfield without any preparation and no preventive maintenance whatsoever for several years and expect to bring it back to flight status. Those planes were parked in anticipation of scrapping, not to be used at some later date. Additionally, many of those old Tu-134s, Tu-154s and Yak-42s have reached or are about to reach the end of their airframe fatigue lives and cannot be flown again. The SSJ and MC-21 use a lot of western components, from engines to landing gear to avionics. It would be easier to design a whole new plane from scratch than to try to replace all those components with all Russian made ones. Even with access to western components Sukhoi built fewer planes in a year than Boeing or Airbus built in a month. To replace the next best thing to 1000 western aircraft with no access to foreign technology Russia will have to start by building the tools to make the tools to produce the parts. That takes years, in Russian case - decades. For example, Russia launched the MC-21 program in 2007; Fifteen years later it is still in the flight test, with only a handful of prototypes built so far. Another thing to consider. Russia, in just over four weeks, has lost an air force worth of combat aircraft and helicopters. You can be sure that for the next 10 years or more Russia will dedicate a much larger share of its aviation industrial base to replacing those loses than to civil aviation.
I think China and Turkey will happily provide the Russian aviation with spare parts and other services for as long this big question mark about the future will hover over Russia's aerospace industry.
The additional problem for the Russian aviation industry is that all of the tooling required to make new parts for existing engines etc, comes from the west...
I wonder if it’s feasible for lenders to sue the Russia government for not following agreement. And if they don’t follow the agreements the signed, take the money out of Russian government foreign currency accounts in those jurisdictions
See the thing about it is that could actually work for them having half their fleet on the ground because not having access to the parts for these planes from the West they can cannibalize those 50 planes for parts to keep those other planes in the air
How can air traffic to Russia be resumed, once the war in Ukraine is over? Even if Russia and the civilized nations lift their entry bans (by NOTAM), the civilized nations will not consider "russian nationalized acft" as airworthy due to lack of documented maintenance. Russia, on the other hand, most probably will insist that the resumption must take place 1-1, like one airline from let's say Switzerland is allowed to perform a daily flight between Zurich and Moscow, and a Russian airline the same, as detailed in state contracts. They will not allow foreign airlines to take over completely the international market from/into Russia . Any solution to that dilemma?
50 % of the systems used for MC21 (like at the SSJ100) comes from western suppliers, and are no longer delivered now. It would take a more or less complete redesign to make a pure Russian airliner from it, even if Russian engines already had been offered as an option
Would this situation affect Chinese military airplanes? Chinese military airplanes have Russian made engines, which probably contain non-local parts or tools for making that engine. If producers of those parts/tools stop selling them to Russia, Russia will not be able to produce engines, in turn China couldn't buy them, and without engines China will not produce its own military planes.
I don't think Russian military engines are affected. Since most of them still come from the Soviet era they should have no western parts, fuel efficiency isn't a real criteria for military engines and if this is no criteria they can build them on their own.
Hard times for russia. But a nation that had a space station before everyone else and that has Airliners that flew faster than the speed of sound can overcome this in a couple of years. And that the world gets a new competitor that will compete Airbus or Boeing. A it will come with a sexy prizetag for sure.
@@alexanderstone9463 The ARJ 21 is a warmed up version of the MD-90/DC-9 (including the whole MD-90/DC-9 fuselage), with new wings designed by Antonov and with GE engines. There's nothing really Chinese on this aircraft, and deliveries and maintenance in Russia would be sanctioned by the US government since it uses American technology.
I feel bad for the pilots. They use to be able to travel and show off their skills...now many will probably lose their jobs as the planes aren't flying nearly as much.
Iran has been maintaining and flying their fleet of "pre revolution " U.S. produced fighter jets since 1979. They use a combination of reverse-engineered, gray market and black market parts to accomplish that goal. Russia could tap Iranian engineering, manufacturing and maintenance know how to keep their newly domesticated fleet in the air until homegrown replacements are available.
Iranian airlines have abysmal safety records and most are/were banned from operating in European airspace as a result. Not exactly a bright future in store for Russia.
It's a difference to maintain fighter jets from the 60s flying very little hours annually or new commercial aircraft. Producing domestic spare parts is expensive too, this don't matter for military but it matters for civil aviation where customers have to pay for it.
Russia does not have the ability to produce the kind of cutting-edge parts that are needed to keep modern Airbus and Boeing planes operational and safe.
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Issue with russia producing parts is that planes with those will not be accepted into any other country's airspace even if sanctions are lifted. Manufacturers are extremely strict about having a clear line of "ownership" for every single tiny part of the aircraft, as soon as that is broken in a plane, as in a part that was not manufactured by an officially allowed body is used, that plane is as good as garbage from an international point of view.
Exactly. Which is why when western aircraft find their way to Iran they stay there until they die. No one else would take them due to the lack of a parts paper trail.
How do they know if they change some parts of the plane while they fly in some countries. Let’s be serious! All is managed
@@luci75d76 All aircraft parts have serial numbers which are tracked on a global maintenace network, some parts are critical and have a set amount of hours they are allowed to be used. All parts must be certified by the manufacture of the aircraft for safety reason. You mess with this system and your in big trouble and if Russia starts making parts and they dont meet the standards required well lets see how many people want to fly on those planes once they start crashing from sub standard parts and maintance.
@@luci75d76 parts have "expiration dates". Basically every X years you need to either get the parts checked to see any sort of damage/wear, or in more critical cases change the part (usually some engine parts for example) no matter what.
If that is not done for an airplane, it loses what's called "air worthiness certificate".
Since these parts are tracked, Boeing and Airbus and others know exactly how many parts are available in Russia for example (this is tied to the line of ownership, this is how they can recall all parts they need if a flaw is found).
So it is true that russians can lie that they used part#12345 for the mandatory replace in airplane#123, but they can't claim the same for airplane#124, so 124 lost its airworthiness certificate.
@@luci75d76 oh and the check needs to be by an official, certified technician, so not going that way also decertifies the airplane
An astonishing situation, that will take many years to resolve.
Russia as the world knows it is dead. It just hasn't quite realized it yet. It will have to be reborn, this time without the poison flowing throught its veins that is the old school USSR way of thinking. Get rid of the Soviet toxin entirely. Then it can grow up to be a healthy productive member of the European-Asian community, rather than the jobless, stealing, drunken chain-smoking Krokodil addict in the trailer park that is Russia today.
Good
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.
@@eddymichaels5486 No, it's actually shit. Russia isn't America and average Russian citizens didn't vote to invade Ukraine any more than the average American was consulted before we went into Iraq/Afghanistan.
Before the world hit the global pariah light switch on Russia, I think that subtlety was understood. I'm libertarian so I don't care for left right politics, but imagine going abroad as an American and being blamed for whatever asinine policy the party you didn't vote for is enacting.
I'm not pro-war but that doesn't mean I'm anti-Russia, it's an autocracy whose ruler has a multi-decade hold on power. Penalize or target Putin, his inner circle, possibly the oligarchs too. But average babushkas and college students and single mothers and poor village folk? Let's not be idiots about this, at some point this will become a major safety issue for Russian citizens who had nothing to do with the war, not good at all.
@@wraith8323 You made one crucial mistake. You still have a false belief in “democracy”, while blaming Russia for being autocratic. We also have the same people ruling for decades (if not centuries), except ours have the audacity to hide in the shadows and serve us an illusion of democracy. Do you really think our elected leaders have even the slightest influence? They do what they are told, and are TV actors at best. It’s only when leaders (rarely) step out of line that you know they’re not playing along. Examples include former PM of Tanzania and sitting president of Belarus.
As the leased, and now stolen, aircraft reach maintenance points, if Russian airlines keep using them they will become worthless. There is precedent. A few years ago four of the seven Turkmenistan Airlines Boeing 717s arrived in the UK off lease, and for maintenance and resale. They turned up with no paperwork indicating any maintenance, and no engineering records. There was no other option that to scrap them. The other three remain grounded as non-airworthy at Ashkhabad. Turkmenistan Airlines was banned from Europe for maintenance, and therefore safety, violations.
No lessor will do business in Russia again, until such time as their upcoming financial losses are settled. The outlook for the airline business in Russia looks very bleak.
Russians want be sitting on their hands. A big country will use them internally until they replace them with their own or imports from China. Sanctions work both ways! Stealing Russian $300 billion and its citizens wealth will hurt the people. Things want ever return to normal with Russia. They dont trust Europe or the US and dont want to do business with them. Grow potatos its what kept Russia going through sanctions and wars. Times are changing for the World.
Well said
@@helenegan1079 Thing is, neither Russia nor China has the production capacity to replace the western fleet of their respective airlines. In the case of China that will certainly work its way out, especially since they have no problem relying on western parts for their airline projects as they are not hit with sanctions. However, that does mean that they cannot supply those planes to Russia until the sanctions cease, or the chinese companies will be hit with sanctions as well. Which is why all the big suppliers in China already stated that they will not supply spare parts to russian airlines for their western fleet.
Additionally, the biggest leasing companies in the world are still western ones, which are unlikely to help russian airlines to buy new planes as long as those same airlines have basically stolen the planes from those leasing companies. After all, all leasing contracts were lawfully terminated and according to the Cape Town Convention, to which Russia is a signatory state, those planes have to be handed over to those leasing companies with full documentation.
Of course, the $300 Billion are not stolen (transferred from the Russian central bank to other entities), they are merely frozen, still belonging to the Russian central bank, just selling and moving it is not allowed. Which is why it cannot be used to transfer it to Ukraine for war reparations and those leasing companies to reimburse them for Russias usual kleptocracy.
Do the lessons have any leverage over what Aeroflot will be able to do it it's permission to fly in the States and Europe is returned? Or any way of making them pay for the aircraft they basically stole?
@@jamesgorman5241 Assuming the stolen aircraft go out of the maintenance system and become technically worthless, no lessor or manufacturer will do business with Russia again until those financial losses are covered. I highly suspect Russian airlines will have to buy aircraft outright and pay up-front in the future.
You forget one mayor issue.
Aeroflot's only certificed shop with mechanichs, with access to spareparts for Boing and Airbus planes, are located in Hamburg Germany.
Then Aeroflot will be back to the 80's, with planes falling out of the sky, or passengers, falling...
Also to note that the Sukhoi Superjets have French engine parts, so they will end up grounded for lack of spares too. Russian airlines won't even be able to use these on international flights. They might not be stolen, but they will certainly be impounded anywhere in Europe, and held by courts acting for the lessors. There will be no Russian airlines performing international flights, until the lessors recoup their losses.
According to Wikipedia (which lists Interfax as the source), in November 2021 UAC announced the establishment of a stockpile of 40 SaM146 engines. They said it was "to enable quicker repairs", which I guess is technically true, since counterfeiting is a lot slower than cannibalizing.
>>There will be not new russian airplanes, bcs their need import parts
>MC-21 plane, and newest "TU-" planes, they like: Don't tell him
>Also, China can give their newest three new types of planes
Boo-hoo... like srsly, "Russia are not have alternatives"? Yes, they have. And a ton. So, b_tch please.
@@alexanderstone9463 Half of the SSJ100 is made from western suppliers. These are no real Russian aircraft, they are just assembled there.
One thing I wish to reiterate is that Russia is not some backwater country. it has an active aircraft manufacturing capacity and all that industry will gradually reawaken and retooled to perform what its economy demand of it. Copyright law and Intellectual property rights will of course be pushed aside for a more friendlier intellectual right regime like that of china.
@@simonm1447 >>No real Aircraft without import parts
What is - MC-21 and newest Tupolev's airplanes then? Just a fake for you?
An aircraft that has non standard parts installed, produced by Russia or anywhere else, cannot be issued an airworthiness certificate.
It's always the ukraine avis
It is not only a matter of reverse Engineering and manufacturing parts that violate copyright/trademarks and intellectual property rights, it is a sure and guaranteed way to revoke the airworthiness certificate since parts not certified for the aircraft by non-certified suppliers/manufacturers would be installed. At this point, the airworthiness certificate for all these Western built aircrafts have been revoked as I understand it.
The 320neo fleet can’t be an average age of 6 years, the 320neo had just entered service 6 years ago commercially. Aeroflot received their first one last year.
They could’ve bought them used.
@@KD-no1tf Aeroflot never buy used airplanes
That is exactly what I want to say! All a320neo is new and the first one was received in the last year.
The Sukhoi jet may be built in Russia, but its engines are joint venture between russian firm and France's Safran. Uses Thales avionics, Messier-Dowty landing gear, Honeywell for APU and many others. So a lot of work will be needed to "convert" this aircraft to be Russian only. (and parts for existing fleets will also be hard to get).
The USSR was good at copying the west. Many of its jets were copied from western jets. The Concorded was copied into TU-144. The Space Shuttle copied into Buran.
Digital Equipment Corp (then second largest computer maker) had etched "when you care enough to steal the very best" in russian cyrrilic onto the CVAX chip itself because they knew that despite export bans, Russia still was able to acquire a few vaxes and then copy the chips and computer system. But all of these copies, from planes to computers were late and none worked as well as the original.
Right now, my guess is that Aeroflot and others are doing planning based on assumtion war will be short lived and life returns to normal for parts/planes/maintenance and progressively cannibalize as needed. But there will come a point where they have to pivot to plan for long term business without any western parts. Copying an engine isn't that simple.
I assume that Russian government will bail out Aeroflot shareholders by buying back what it doesn't already own and then keep it alive via subsidies.
According to Wikipedia (which lists Interfax as the source), UAC has supposedly has a stockpile of 40 SaM146 engines. According to UAC, they purchased these engines "to enable quicker repairs". They announced this in November of 2021, so I'm not sure if I really believe the official reason. Regardless, 40 engines would provide a lot of spare parts.
Also, copying engine parts isn't a problem for Russia. The Iranians sort of figured it out, their Boeings flew for decades without any US support whatsoever, and they didn't have a domestic aerospace industry beforehand (unlike Russia, which does). The real problem for Russia will be getting those engines certified outside of Russia.
Yeah, it's always them copying us. Never the other way around /s
@N Fels I apologize for the late response. But what worked for Iran will absolutely work for Russia. Firstly, you say that “most of the world” has put sanctions on Russia and that’s simply not true. The west and most of its allies have put sanctions on Russia, but no one else has. This will obviously complicate the acquisition of parts through illegal means, but I highly doubt that it will stop it. Secondly, Iran had absolutely no aerospace industry to speak of when it was put under sanctions. Russia does have an aerospace industry. Regardless of how backward it is, this fact will make it significantly easier for them compared to Iran.
If Russian companies use non-approved parts on the planes (if they manufacture them by reverse engineering or whatever), the value of those would plummet instantly since it wouldn't have a proper maintenance record. I doubt they will go for that.
They might do it but what will the leasing companies do?
These planes are already uncertified for travel outside of Russia and will never be certified again. They're as good as scrap now.
@@gretchenalleman506 write them off and never invest in Russia again
@@gretchenalleman506 The leasing companies have to sue the russian companies anyway, after all they failed to follow international law (Cape Town Convention, Russia is a signatory state) and return the planes at the end of their lease (all leases were terminated in accordance with the lease contracts) with full documentation to the leasing companies. Now, the leasing companies do have insurance, so it will be litigation between all concerned parties for the next decade at least. And of course Russian airlines will have a hard time ever leasing planes from those companies of course.
Original spare parts are available
Aeroflot has pretty much collapsed as an airliner. Beyond its garbage internal network, its foreign routes are lost and the slots are already getting refilled by foreign carriers eager to access the newly-available markets (ex: London-Heathrow).
I heard a Russian airliner at Copenhagen airport. It was WAAAY louder than the western planes, and not in a good way. It sounded like it was grinding itself apart or preparing to explode. I would not get on one, wouldn't even want to be anywhere near it.
I think the reverse engineering scenario is impossible due to the sheer quantity of parts that would have to be produced.
I loved to use Aeroflot from EUR to Asia. Was a very good carrier, hope situation before or later will be as used before.
I checked anycase after the video on the aeroflot on their website seems not a lot in the offers nor flights is available still
Told y’all about reverse engineering when this started to happen. Ain’t no way though those pilots have enough confidence to pilots such planes when things to start to break down.
getting Russian made spares certified internationally may be a problem meaning the aircraft's value is hurt significantly due to the use of parts that are not approved for use.....even current Russian made planes use many parts from other countries.....from tires to complex navigational computers.....replacing the later is non-trivial....
These aircraft will be internationally dead.
As it currently stands, no matter if repaired via home grown counterfeit parts or contraband, these planes will not be allowed to travel to almost all countries. Aeroflot will not be able to survive with China, Belarus and Iran as their only destinations, as all other countries will be penalised if they allow them to land.
Exactly! These planes are considered stolen goods and, if they land anywhere civilized, they will be subject to seizure and returned to lessors.
Nationalizing foreign leased assets was a *profoundly* stupid idea that will have ramifications for Russia for a generation or more.
It is a common mistake for people to reference the international community or the World as only Canada, the USA, Europe and Australia.
@@monodeldiablo actually Russians said that money for leasing can be obtained from frozen accounts in Europe. Btw the situation is not that clear and on my opinion Europe did more such illegal things.
@@Atmosfearzx Source? Russian authorities have repeatedly referred to the frozen assets as "stolen", so I sincerely doubt they've also given the green light to leading companies to raid those assets. And the fact the lessors just filed insurance claims for $3.5 billion strongly implies they don't believe you either.
@@Atmosfearzx opinions usually come up with evidence. The EU's aviation authority is very independent and penalises airlines and various Member States for even small abuses. So would love to see examples.
In this particular case, it was lawyers for courts who suggested prior to action taken TO ENSURE legality.
The cost of illegal invasion of a sovereign state is not just making people angry. Russian aviation is all but destroyed fora decade and the blame sits with their (your?) government alone.
Aeroflot will become the next Air Koryo
It’s a real shame the way things have turned out, Aeroflot was one of the rare success stories of Russia
was good indeed I liked a lot to use it
I wonder if software updates (or the lack there of) could render the aircraft useless.
Seems like counterfeit replacement parts would damage the safety reputation of these aircraft types when bad things start happening and negative publicity possibly going to the OEM manufacturers if investigations try reporting that it was a manufacturing defect. Or even worse, if it actually was an original equipment manufacturing defect, manufacturers can blame it on phantom counterfeit parts that might have actually been OEM.
Aeroflot bought 7 A330s. So they fly to Maldives and Turkey. And also 1 undelivered A350 to Aeroflot. Was painted to Fiji airways in Toulouse.
On the 24th February over 12 hours after the invasion of Ukraine, Airbus allowed Aeroflot to take delivery of a brand new A350-941 reg VP-BYF. The aircraft made a couple of round trips from Moscow to Havana, but is now grounded. That is probably the last the lessors will see of that aircraft. U$300m written off.
I guess Airbus didn't have a choice at this point, since they did not sell the aircraft to Aeroflot but to a leasing company. It would have been the job of the leasing company to stop the delivery. The sanctions came later however.
But A 350s are way more complicated and sophisticated than 737s or A 320s, with a more advanced electronic system and more exotic materials. Such an aircraft is much harder to keep flight worthy without manufacturer support than aircraft designed 30 years ago
It's not a 'conflict', it's a 'war'. Please call it what it is.
Please find below the second definition of "conflict", as per Cambridge Dictionary:
*Fighting between two or more groups of people or countries*
"We wish to avoid conflict between our countries if at all possible."
They used the word “invasion”, which sums up the situation pretty well….
@@magnustan841 Free Palestine you western hypocrisy
@@magnustan841 I'd argee its an intervention
The lack of international flights means a bunch of aircraft are presently in a storage state. Effectively the Russian airlines that have overseas routes have just been put back 2 years to the start of the pandemic hemorrhaging cash by having the planes parked beyond a few friendly countries they still fly to.
Will Putin's plane be grounded because of lack of maintenance or parts ?
@@beatnik8983 I'd expect one of two things to happen:
1: Cannibalize other aircraft that were just nationalized (part of the foreign lease) of the same model for maintenance components.
2: Reverse engineer components
However the airlines themselves are in an untenable scenario. By Russia re-creating a "RU-" the leased aircraft won't be viewed as air worthy.
Now to be fair the Antinov 225 (that was just destroyed) had been cannibalized for components to keep the Antinov 124 flying. Then it was refit and re-certified. It is just a very labour intense process to get an air craft deemed air worthy again. I'd expect the aircraft to be forced through a "D Check" (essentially where the entire airplane is rebuilt and all systems certified as working.
I know I've gone a bit off topic. In the short term Russia airplanes can and likely will fly within the country. But after a few months the effects of the airplane sanctions will be felt.
@@beatnik8983 As far as i know Putin usually flies only in russian build airplanes anyway, so he personally will not be hit by those sanctions. That said, since he is too afraid to show up anywhere public anyway, he is just holed up in some secure location creating a very strong resemblance of Hitler in his bunker during the last year in WW2.
It would be interesting to hear SkyTeam talking about the future with Aeroflot. With the “nationalization” or shall we say theft of a large part of the fleet, these planes will be worthless and most likely not welcomed internationally.
I just don’t see the purpose of an airline alliance member that can’t fly else than within its borders and with aircrafts that can’t be considered safe.
I can easily see in the future that leases on aircraft will become much more expensive for Aeroflot. If I owned aircraft valued at millions of dollars, I would be super hesitant to lease to Russian companies in the future since they have basically stolen all of the ones that have not be seized yet.
Russia is seizing planes because in Canada their air bridge plane was just confiscated . I believe for revenge they are doing it
Russia had no intentions to release those aircraft from day one, well before the Canadian incident.
No one brighter than the underside of a rusty spade will EVER do business with Russia again. Good job tsar Putin.
All aircraft parts have serial numbers which are tracked on a global maintenace network, some parts are critical and have a set amount of hours they are allowed to be used. All parts must be certified by the manufacture of the aircraft for safety reason. You mess with this system and your in big trouble and if Russia starts making parts and they dont meet the standards required well lets see how many people want to fly on those planes once they start crashing from sub standard parts and maintance.
It is a common mistake for people to reference the international community or the World as only Canada, USA, Europe, Japan and Australia.
Well, if most of the engineering happening in these countries, then it is most of the world in these aspects. If we were talking about international community referring to bananas, then it will be south america dominating in the aspects. Aspects related to bananas.
Majority of world's economy
It's Aeroflop now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Aeroflot among other Russian Airlines returned their leased aircraft. If Russian airlines want to keep good will with lessors, they’d better return their leased planes.
That's a nice thought but it would appear that pretty much everything in Russia is becoming "state owned". Aeroflot will not have any real say in what happens to them or the aircraft. It seems as if Russia is returning to its former self, the USSR. The people of Ukraine are suffering now, the people of Russia are going to be suffering soon. All because of one douchebag.
Yes -- it's a nice thought but we know better and some of those aircraft will be stolen -- we're dealing with a nut job there in Russia and common sense won't apply.
not likely
They literally cant. If they plane has Russian crew, they wont be allowed to enter western airspace, and western crew cannot enter Russia.
@@qiyuxuan9437 they can be allowed with special clearances. For example, few weeks ago a Russian plane delivered radioactive fuel for the nuclear power plants in Slovakia. So, if the Russians will call the leasing companies about returning them back their airplanes, believe me, they will be able fly to Europe without any problems. Maybe they allow for the pilots also a special flight for returning back to Russia.
This guy deserves more subscribers.
You mentioned development of the CR-929. I thought that it relied significant Western suppliers of sub-assemblies (like landing gear, avionics, etc.). I may have details confused with the C-919 though. Please produce a video on developments with these planes in the new situation.
The CR-929 is still in development and I don't think anything has been finalized (like the engines it will use). So it's likely that they will just replace all of the western made parts with Russian or Chinese made parts.
@@alexanderstone9463 It would be stupid for China to make this deal with Russia though, it runs the risk of landing Chinese civil aviation, which is a much bigger bussiness than Russia's and vital to China's economy, in the same place as the Russian one. China operates hundreds of Airbus and Boeing too, it would be a huge loss if those become unable to fly just to sell a few planes to Russia. Also, China is entirely unproven in making jet airliners, even more so than Russia. Why would Russia buy planes from a foreign, unproven and unreliable manufacture?
@ahadicow
I always assumed that it would be the Russians building the plane with Chinese support (and funds) rather than the other way around. That would probably lessen the political controversy and allow it to be produced by a more proven builder of commercial jetliners.
Finally, I’m also skeptical of the extent to which the US and the EU would go to punish China for making a deal with Russia on this specific issue.
There will not be reverse engineering of any major parts (like engines). It's not practical for the amount of time they have before they need replacements.
Considering corruption shortcuts and Lord knows what in terms of parts and maintenance
flying aeroflot is going to be quite a risky choice,,,but of course Russian controlled media won't be announcing the crashes,
To people saying about new parts. Depending on the part required there are several plane breakers and parts for sale second hand
Probably doable for 737NG, 777, A320 and A330 parts but unlikely for the A350.
They're lucky they don't have 787's. 787 Cabin Air Compressors and the PECS to name a few are systems unique to the 787 and break quite regularly. And they're a necessity for aircraft operation. But it gets worse: The 787-8 and 787-9/10 main gear wheels and tires aren't even interchangeable. Great aircraft, but you do need a whole lot of unique spare parts.
Next time aeroflot seeks to lease an aircraft they'll need to be sitting down, with doctors on standby before they read the invoice .
Regardless of the outcome of the Ukranium war, Russia's international economic growth is seriously limited. Russia will sink further into being a 3rd world country.
15 minutes regurgitating everything we already know from the news networks. Absolutely nothing worth watching here.
Garuda Indonesia are also the same have almost all of their aircraft are leased.
Turkish airlines got a350 from Aeroflot while still on its Aeroflot livery
the amount of midroll ads in your video is insane. literally after 3min there is already another ad.
Russia's aviation leaders have said it will produce a new engine for the Suhkoi 100 that will be entirely of Russian part. They have also said that the T-204/214 and the Il-96 will begin to be produced again. But manufacturing new models of these older designs will take some time. Even then they are saying the can only produce 12 to 16 models of these planes per year. I do not know the answer. I wonder if they would convert some military Il-76 aircraft to airline use. I understand they are introducing a new model of this aircraft as well.
MS-21 are due to come out in the nearest future, complete with the new and efficient engines, so the Russian aviation industry inexplicably got a huge boost in funding and it is safe to say that all of the sanctions, including aviation, just made Russia stronger and less reliant on the west.
Feel bad for the people of Aeroflot
Surely, every time a lessor owned aircraft lands outside Russian influence, it will be seized.
That’s assuming any aircraft coming out of Russia will land outside of Russian influence anytime soon… given most of the bans, the planes won’t make it into the airspace, much less an airport. Plus the companies aren’t dumb enough to send their planes where they know they’ll be confiscated.
@@FlybyStardancer I think that was my point!!!!!
Still, thank-you for clarifying.
@@FlybyStardancer Correct, but how do they know which countries will seize their aircraft and which ones won't? Virtually no one outside of the West and East Asia has put formal sanctions on Russia, but that doesn't necessarily mean that those countries will be safe for Russian planes to land in. It's difficult to predict how things will play out. For instance, Turkey has readily supplied Ukraine with weapons and closed the straits in accordance with the Montreux convention, but they haven't actually sanctioned Russia, they're the only member of NATO that hasn't. Does that mean that Russian planes can land in Turkey? Possibly, but I'm not sure a Russian airline would want to test that.
@@alexanderstone9463 Are you boys just here for the pictures or is this revision for the exam?
Yup Aeroflot Russian Airlines will be facing alot of Problems due too what's happening in Russia going up against Ukraine so I'm watching this Video right now Awesome Video!!!!
What about all those internet connected updates which will mean the electrics communications will be unusable
ALL airports should NOT let them land
Typical criminals in Russia seizing the leased airplanes. They will fall apart or crash, another Russian doomed industry.
Didn’t the great democratic west just seized Russian property in us, specifically in Manhattan. Where the Russian boats was confiscated
Aeroflot first A320neo arrived last year.So they are about one year old.
A 320 Neos use the latest engine technology. They can park this aircraft more or less soon, since Russia can't produce certain engine parts for such modern engines (even P&W had problems with them at the beginning)
how about a video on the new ITA airways? they're getting new a350s very soon
Even though they built very own planes.....where will those fly without international connections.....🛫🤓
Well Russia is a very large country with many areas without road access. So they'll have a sizable domestic market. But I don't see a 777-300ER being useful there. I expect turboprop aircraft to be useful for that part of the market.
@@CheapBastard1988 they already purposes Ilyushin iL-114
I doubt that Putin gives a damn about copyrights and so to manufacture parts for “stollen” aircrafts or cannibalize some to keep others flying. The question is that in the future leasers would willing to do business again with the Russians.
never
Sad to hear your guys that look at only one side of the coin. War is not ever good, but check out the reasons why wars begin and then pass on a judgement.
Oh well, I guess that I will not be flying on any Russian planes any time soon.
Don't these newer aircraft recieve over the air software updates every so often? If so aren't they cut off from the updates as well?
No, for obvious safety reasons there are no over the air updates for aircraft.
yes they are
I think we are going to see some plane crashes in Russia in the coming year due to shoddy maintenance.
My question for people who repair airplanes is how long do people think Boeing planes could be kept in the air if they scavenge parts from planes left on the ground.
Let's say every plane on the ground tried to keep one flying. How long might that be? Are there enough Russian citizens trained to repair the aircraft or did they for example have people from outside Russia doing those repairs?
From weeks to at most a few months if they try to (vaguely) follow International standards. Any more than that it's pure speculation; even Russians themselves doesn't have a clue on how to proceed (btw, I'm not talking about the invasion).
I hope we see lots of crashes in Russia. Every bomb they dropped over Ukrainian hospitals, children, fleeing civilians should be one crash in Russia.
Building a supply and maintenance system will take time and piles of money. I am not sure that they have either the time or money to pull it off.
In time this will change. Iran seemed to be pretty competent in keeping old 747s and until recently 707’s airworthy!
No mention of all the aircraft registered in Ireland
I can confirm that the Russian A320 in Geneva is still there. It is sitting with no weather protection on instruments or engines. It's not going anywhere soon and has to have a complet engine overhaul if it wants to start up again.
Source or it didn't happen
@@AFlyingCookieLOL I live in Geneva near the airport and saw the plane parked, and a friend that works on smaller private aviation is an airplane mechanic.
We all know that Aeroflot has jacked up the price of tickets bigtime just to survive.
How likely is it that Aeroflots current Airbus and Boeing fleet are flying around with worn out/old parts due to the sanctions?
With russians anything possible. Including hitting screws with hammers if they don’t want to screw in.
I refused to fly Aerflot back when I visited USSR in 1973 and won't fly them even if I decide to visit Russia which I probably won't due to age and income issues--even after sanction are lifted.
I don't trust their maintenance and if I can't trust that, I don't fly.
Paranoid westerner
They should be ejected from SkyTeam and given the same status as Air Koryo ….. anathema, reprobate , pariah . Thank you Vladimir Dobby House Elf
Are Russian aircraft civilian and/or military still able to fly to Kalinagrad? Or has Kalinagrad been cut off from the rest of Russia.
They could probably fly from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad by flying outside territorial waters across the Finish Gulf and the Baltic Sea. Though military aircraft will probably be escorted by fighter jets from the Estonian side. No idea how the Finish side would respond as they operate their military independently (though maybe not for long).
@@CheapBastard1988 That's exactly what they've been doing. They've been flying over the Baltic the whole way. The territorial waters of Finland and Estonia do not meet anywhere so I'm not sure why they'd have problems with the Finnish military.
You can watch "Flight Radar 24s" website to see the flights. They are still using Boeing planes for them. I see a flight to Moscow and St. Petersberg everyday which flies out over the Baltic Sea. What is more interesting to watch is the Russian military cargo planes flying there. Today one from Murmask arrived. Other have come from central Russia starting near the Ural Mountains area.
Grand theft aeroplane.
Even the russian built SSJ 100 will be grounded soon, as the fly by wire system the flight control system, the inertial navigation system and many other parts are produced and serviced by western companies!
So by by Russian airline industries ...
What will be left will be uncomfortable and fuel intensive Soviet style aircraft. A country traveling back in time by 30 years
I wouldn't want to be on the flight crew of a future long haul flight. There will be limited number of friendly places to land in the unlikely event of a emergency.
In the case of emergency landings the airspace ban allows a landing in EU countries or north America
4:03 aeroflot flies to Sri Lanka using an a330
First- I could see them recertifying old retired Soviet era aircraft. Simply bringing back any remaining TU-154's for example.
Second- For their widebodies they could simply run them on every other day frequencies. United did this during the pandemic. Simply fly an aircraft on 1-2 flights for the day then park it. Example- plane flies 2 flights on monday, parked on tuesday, flies on wednesday, and repeat.
Third- Airframes like the 737 and A320 will be easy to locate spare parts, due to shear volume of aircraft. I would not be surprised if they have shell companies that are buying parts for these aircraft and thru some convoluted black market deals finding ways of requiring those parts.
Fourth- simply buy aircraft from Russian companies and as these aircraft come off the assembly line then fly those more frequently. Then slowly remove the Airbus/Boeing aircraft. (this would be the long term plan.)
Both the MC21 and the SSJ100 use western parts, it will take months, if not years to find new suppliers and certify those aircraft with new ones
@@BrunoViniciusCampestrini That makes sense. Well, makes me wonder if Russia could ally with China and see if China can also find a way to reverse engeineer the parts.
@@markjensen7091 I'm not sure if China would risk its own domestic plane projects (which rely heavily on western components) just to help Russia.
Parts might be an issue, unless the parts at verified, it won’t be able to fly over places like Europe
There are a number of problems with your arguments. You can't just park a plane at the edge of an airfield without any preparation and no preventive maintenance whatsoever for several years and expect to bring it back to flight status. Those planes were parked in anticipation of scrapping, not to be used at some later date. Additionally, many of those old Tu-134s, Tu-154s and Yak-42s have reached or are about to reach the end of their airframe fatigue lives and cannot be flown again.
The SSJ and MC-21 use a lot of western components, from engines to landing gear to avionics. It would be easier to design a whole new plane from scratch than to try to replace all those components with all Russian made ones. Even with access to western components Sukhoi built fewer planes in a year than Boeing or Airbus built in a month. To replace the next best thing to 1000 western aircraft with no access to foreign technology Russia will have to start by building the tools to make the tools to produce the parts. That takes years, in Russian case - decades. For example, Russia launched the MC-21 program in 2007; Fifteen years later it is still in the flight test, with only a handful of prototypes built so far.
Another thing to consider. Russia, in just over four weeks, has lost an air force worth of combat aircraft and helicopters. You can be sure that for the next 10 years or more Russia will dedicate a much larger share of its aviation industrial base to replacing those loses than to civil aviation.
I think China and Turkey will happily provide the Russian aviation with spare parts and other services for as long this big question mark about the future will hover over Russia's aerospace industry.
So it sounds like Russia is gonna have to start up the civil aviation again and start churning out IL86 and IL96
The additional problem for the Russian aviation industry is that all of the tooling required to make new parts for existing engines etc, comes from the west...
Hope they will close soon
Fingers crossed
What about flights from Turky into Russia?
Can those lost leased planes claim insurance?
I wonder why the planes themselves need money..........
The companies can claim insurance..... though
@@tailsorange2872 🤣
I wonder if it’s feasible for lenders to sue the Russia government for not following agreement. And if they don’t follow the agreements the signed, take the money out of Russian government foreign currency accounts in those jurisdictions
absolutely
If I wasn't standing in line fighting for staples and I were Russian I'd be investing in bus and train manufacturing !
Looks like they will need to bring back the old soviet airliners
Putin turned Aeroflot into AERO-FLOP
Not safe at all.
They have began cannibalising new A350 aircraft already.
Very nice video! Is it necessary to read letters issuing the NATO alphabet though? Sounds a bit ridiculous.
Nato alphabet is not just used by Nato, but also by civil aviation worldwide. Nato just adopted it
Who makes the chips for these Russian made plane?
Russia’s probably reverting to vacuum tube technology.
See the thing about it is that could actually work for them having half their fleet on the ground because not having access to the parts for these planes from the West they can cannibalize those 50 planes for parts to keep those other planes in the air
Russia doesn't really need spare parts if it hasn't any routes it can fly
true, 36 countries has banned their airspace for Russian aircraft....maybe they can fly to N. Korea and Iran
How can air traffic to Russia be resumed, once the war in Ukraine is over?
Even if Russia and the civilized nations lift their entry bans (by NOTAM), the civilized nations will not consider "russian nationalized acft" as airworthy due to lack of documented maintenance. Russia, on the other hand, most probably will insist that the resumption must take place 1-1, like one airline from let's say Switzerland is allowed to perform a daily flight between Zurich and Moscow, and a Russian airline the same, as detailed in state contracts. They will not allow foreign airlines to take over completely the international market from/into Russia .
Any solution to that dilemma?
Imagine if Russian Aviation survives all these sanctions
Imagine pigs can fly
I'd prefer to have Tupolev, Ilyushin and Irkut develop their own clean sheet design......... Just sayin' as a neutral individual.
They already are, the MC21 has already been certified, but it will take time to produce them in any significant quantity.
The original manufacturers have merged into 1 single company - the UAC (United Aircraft Corporation
also. they use p&w motors...
@@8o86 it was certified for russian engine too
50 % of the systems used for MC21 (like at the SSJ100) comes from western suppliers, and are no longer delivered now. It would take a more or less complete redesign to make a pure Russian airliner from it, even if Russian engines already had been offered as an option
Would this situation affect Chinese military airplanes? Chinese military airplanes have Russian made engines, which probably contain non-local parts or tools for making that engine. If producers of those parts/tools stop selling them to Russia, Russia will not be able to produce engines, in turn China couldn't buy them, and without engines China will not produce its own military planes.
I don't think Russian military engines are affected. Since most of them still come from the Soviet era they should have no western parts, fuel efficiency isn't a real criteria for military engines and if this is no criteria they can build them on their own.
Not first :)
At least you are honest.....
me neither
@@thomast6851 lol
Hard times for russia. But a nation that had a space station before everyone else and that has Airliners that flew faster than the speed of sound can overcome this in a couple of years. And that the world gets a new competitor that will compete Airbus or Boeing. A it will come with a sexy prizetag for sure.
Can they not buy Chinese produced aircraft and parts?
The Chinese use a lot of western made parts in their aircraft. Only their military aircraft are built entirely with Chinese components.
I have owned Chinese made can openers which were junk. Aircraft parts? no thank you.
China has no modern civilian aircraft, Comac C919 is still not even delivered within China and C929 is still a project in the planning phase
@@simonm1447 The ARJ21 is most certainly a "modern civilian aircraft" and it is made in China.
@@alexanderstone9463 The ARJ 21 is a warmed up version of the MD-90/DC-9 (including the whole MD-90/DC-9 fuselage), with new wings designed by Antonov and with GE engines. There's nothing really Chinese on this aircraft, and deliveries and maintenance in Russia would be sanctioned by the US government since it uses American technology.
I feel bad for the pilots. They use to be able to travel and show off their skills...now many will probably lose their jobs as the planes aren't flying nearly as much.
Russia can't make its own parts without western components even if they can re-engineer the parts
Iran has been maintaining and flying their fleet of "pre revolution " U.S. produced fighter jets since 1979. They use a combination of reverse-engineered, gray market and black market parts to accomplish that goal. Russia could tap Iranian engineering, manufacturing and maintenance know how to keep their newly domesticated fleet in the air until homegrown replacements are available.
Iranian airlines have abysmal safety records and most are/were banned from operating in European airspace as a result. Not exactly a bright future in store for Russia.
It's a difference to maintain fighter jets from the 60s flying very little hours annually or new commercial aircraft. Producing domestic spare parts is expensive too, this don't matter for military but it matters for civil aviation where customers have to pay for it.
Russia does not have the ability to produce the kind of cutting-edge parts that are needed to keep modern Airbus and Boeing planes operational and safe.
F14 has an ejection seat. Don't think Airbus or Boeing planes come with those so...
Aeroflot is done ever getting another western lease on aircraft or a loan from a western bank for aircraft purchase, it is so done.
It warms my heart to hear of any Russian demise.
So u are a stupid American.
AFAIK all aircraft have been nationalized and re-registred in Russia, is that correct?