Russia: How Many Planes Will Be Undelivered Due To Sanctions?
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- Опубликовано: 23 апр 2024
- With Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer all pulingl out of supplying Russian airlines with planes and parts, all three are staring down the barrel of a potentially empty orderbook in the country. While the length of time Russia will be under sanctions remains unknown, history has shown what the impact of such moves could be. Let’s take a closer look at the full, longer-term ramifications of sanctions against Russia from an aviation perspective…
Article link: simpleflying.com/russia-how-m... 
Развлечения
Situation of engine supplies should have been presented. Some Russian plane manufacturers rely on foreign supplies of engines and this will be a big blow
The MC-21 shown in the video has Pratt & Whitney engines which are now part of sanctions against Russia. Also, russian engines are not up to par with western ones. This has been a problem for decades in Russia. Just look at all the smoke that come out of the engines of their relatively modern fighter aircraft and compare it with western jets.
If you were a bit more interested, you could've read about MC-21-310 powered by russian ПД-14 engine, developed by "united engine manufacturer", or ОДК, how do they call it in russian.
And this is some of those projects, which were built up almost entirely from the blank. And even if ПД-14 is not a competitorfor most recent RR, GE, or PW models, it is still a big success for russian engineers. Most probably, they will keep updating it making it better. Of course, if they'll handle producing such machinery during sanctions.
The time will show us, how will MC-21 meet the future - as a workhorse, or a museum exhibit.
@@vavord5181 I did know about the PD-14 engine that can also be installed on the MC-21 and the fact that the MC-21 is only certified with the P&W engines, hence my comment about russian engines not being up to par with western ones.
@@flightmaster999 Do PD-14s even "exist" yet? My understanding was that they are still in development. Which brings up another bump: aircraft engines require TONS of precious metals, raw materials, parts, etc. that need to be drawn from the global supply chain. I don't see how Russia even makes engines at this point.
@@flightmaster999 ok, a good thing - you know about ПД-14. But do you remember that MC-21 with russian engines was produced later than MC+PW? MC+PW was already performing test flights when MC+ПД was built. So, that's not the question about the engines themselves, that's the question about produstion of prototypes.
If ПД-14 wasn't comparable to PW engines, I'm sure, nobody would consider installing it on a plane.
Remember, MC+PW - first flight in 2017.
While MC+ПД - first flight in 2020.
Guess, which one will get certified first? 🤔
@@VisibilityFoggy and while you don't see Russian engines, MC-21 with ПД has already flown and it was already in 2020.
Phillipine Airlines should fill up the A350/77W orders that was supposed to be with Russian Airlines in general
China: _"Don't worry, we can make those parts you need."_
Unless the Russian airlines are working hard to return the planes on canceled leases they will find it nearly impossible to ever again access to western financing for new equipment. Banks or lessors will consider them very high risk.
That's right. With the sanctions and being cancelled out of SWIFT I can't see how they could pay for the planes anyway.
In the international financial links of the world today Russia and China don’t see what they are doing they are becoming north korea
Well first the leasing companies need to pay the penalty for breaking the lease early.
It is in the contract.
Yep. Putin has RUINED Russia. All for his own fear, greed and ego.
@@TesterAnimal1
Hahaha
Pinocchio
Why did you choose to be a nameless coward pretend human?
MC-21 has been "certified" recently with Pratt & Whitney PW1000G and these are imported. The second engine PD-14 has western parts in it and will suffer from sanctions too. SSJ 100 is full of western avionics. These factors would further delay or made impossible new planes to be built. If sanctions last we'll see Chinese aviation flying in Russia for regional flights too on the condition of lenient western interpretation of aviation sanctions.
Do you have a credible source on the claim that PD-14 engines have western parts in them, I would very much like to read into it if true.
From everything I have read it is claimed that PD-14 engines are 100% Russian made.
@@TheDrono PD-14 do have western parts and aren't 100% russian, I heard it in a video before, not sure which one
@@jrx5759
I have every reason to doubt such claims until credible sources proof it ain’t so. Kindly @ me when you find the video.
@@jrx5759 "i've heard it in other video, no link tho"
Not very reliable source, ya know?
@@TheDrono I don't have an article, however I am in the industry and am aware of the issue. The PD-14 is a completely indigenous Russian design and uses Russian parts. The issue, however, is that some of those parts are made out of materials that are supplied by the west. Specifically, the composites. Russia began weaning themselves off these materials several years ago when the previous round of sanctions were kicking in, so they may be farther along with its development by now, but I don't see how you manufacture a state-of-the-art high bypass turbofan engine in 2022 without using ANYTHING from Europe or the Americas. Everything is so globalized... I wouldn't even know where to start if I was in the position of someone developing that engine.
I think another question is would you want to fly on a rusia made aircraft or a air craft that hasnt been maintaned corectly
That was true even before the Ukraine war but I see your point. Qatar Airways lost the Lufthansa code share because of its maintenance standard and that's a running airline with a reputation: not so with Aeroflot!
@@messrsandersonco5985 do you have any sources plz
Last week I’ve been to Hamburg Finkenwerder Airport where I got to see two S7 A321neos on the ramp. God knows what will happen to them...
They can buy parts from some other country that is not under sanctions.
I read about a maintenance records issue raised in relation to planes leased from an Irish company. If Russian operators are unable to keep internationally recognized maintenance records, their value to the Western leasing company will plummet. It is unclear if the Russian government will allow leased planes to be returned to the West, but if they are not, the lack of properly-documented maintenance history for these planes may make it difficult or expensive for Russian operators to return to the previous level of relationship with aviation suppliers in the West.
I think the return of Russian leased aircraft without maintenance records would be a problem for the leasing companies not Russia.
Commercial aircraft like this without a traceable maintenance history are functionally worthless to any other operators, and you would be hard pressed to find an insurance broker willing to insure a worthless plane with no traceable service history.
7:10 Lufthansa do have a kind heart to help Airbus and Boeing problems
Lufthansa has 12 billion € supplied by the governments of Germany, Austria and Switzerland burning in its pockets, they want to spend big as long as they can. On equipment that is, not on personnel.
I think they just need the planes! Thats why theyve brought back some 747-400s, its because of the 777-X delays, and that they haven't got enough A350 delivery slots until 2024.
@@Soordhin They already paid all the money back, and it was only 3.8€ billlion.
@@Biggunkief Not really. The loan was 3,8 billion and that is (partly) repaid. The other financial help (equity, direct debit etc amounting to over 8 billion) has not been repaid yet.
f for the russian civil aviation
what will happen to MS-21?
Referring to your comments in 7:15 : Russian airlines actually do not have Russian choices. Both SSJ and MC21 use western parts extensively, more crucially, for the critical components such as avionics, electronics and engine parts that Russia does not know how to make to replace. Without those parts, there will be no new SSJs and MC21s. The only planes that Russia can produce fully by themselves are IL96, TU204/214, IL114 and AN148/158.
By manufacturer statements, MC-21 is 97% localized to russian components. Most probably, russian engineers will find a way to handle this problem, resolving it.
@@vavord5181 Yes we all know how the Russians like to tell the truth
@@StreetGang2017 as much, as europe or us do.
There're SSJ-New in development which will be fully made from russian components including avionics and PD-8 engines. MC21-310 with PD-14 engines is 99% made from localized parts including composite wings.
Also there're some mistakes in aircrafts which Russia can made - AN148/158 made in Ukraine. IL114 - postponed due last years accident.
You should do a video on the Boeing 717 next. I call it the “Forgotten Boeing Plane”
The 717 was a DC9 with improved engines, and a glass cockpit. It was never a Boeing product. When Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas they completed the orders, and canceled the model .
@@zekeonstormpeak4186 Thanks for the info. Also, the Boeing 717’s original name was the MD-95
1. С закрытием пролётов над Россией - авиакомпании из Европы проигрывают конкуренцию Китайским авиакомпания и их возможность обновлять флот.
2. Запрет на полёты для РФ в ЕС и США, уменьшает потребность в самолётах, которые России сейчас не продают.
3.существубщая маршрутная сеть зарубежных полётов это Вьетнам, Тай, Индия, ОАЭ, Турция, Китай вполне хватает.
4.реанимация производство ТУ 204 позволит летать из Москвы до Владика. и Хабаровск.
What about Tu-204SM?
Still in production.
Tu-204's operators, were, mostly government-affilated structures, so the russians kept running theirs airplane industry to maintain flying aircrafts or replace the oldest ones. Ya know, the national security reasons. Most probably, it will take significant amount of time to develop russian airplane industry to keep up with market demands, but eventually it'll happen. Sooner or later. And more likely, it'll happen sooner, rather than later.
In output, they could get wide variety of results - from something like EMBRAER, up to something like Airbus. The time will show, where russians will find themselves in future.
Civil aviation should not be sanctioned. Travel and trade between nations is critical to peace and understanding. I hope Aeroflot returns to international airports sooner than later, but I’m afraid the only way this will happen is with regime change in Moscow.
Putin for sure needs to be arrested for war crimes
What about engines, chips, avionics etc these are subject to sanctions
Literally dont cate how many are undeliverable due to sanctions.
Russian airlines carry a majorty of russians... hence they are not big competitors on the western markets. But the absence of russians on destinations in the West, East and Africa frees up spaces for clients in East and West, who will need carriers to bring them.... carriers will need to offer seats, plenty of seats, cq aircraft.
and indeed, not all aircraft are passenger aircraft. Cargo aircraft are and will be needed. And btw, not overflying the russian airspace makes the travel longer, therefor airlines will need more flying hours and therefor more aircraft....
For Widebodies, the Il-96 is still in production.
And for the narrowbodies, so does Tu-204. At least as far as I know.
I don't think all the parts are sourced domestically for the IL96
Loved that B747-400
Just wait for a time...
The Russian airline industry is basically screwed for the next several years. Homegrown manufacturing capacity is small and relies on foreign engines and avionics. Even if the "Special Military Operation" ends, and the West ends its Special Economic Operation, the damage has already been done to Russia's credit worthiness. Too risky for Western investment. I think the only thing that would change that is the unlikely event of drastic regime change in Russia.
>regime change
Which, most probably, won't happen in nearest ~20-30 yrs. Too long period to wait for.
And that's the situation we're talking about now, when Russia didn't even appeared to economics front of confrontations. And trust me, nobody wants it to happen. If it happens, some regime changes in EU countries may occur...
@@vavord5181 You think Putin will live for another 20 to 30 years? Lavrov, Shoigu, etc. are all old men too. My guess is that the Duma goes after Putin since he has destroyed the country, Putin tries to dissolve the Duma, then the military steps in and takes control until a referendum can be held. Navalny?
@@VisibilityFoggy Navalny is nowhere near to be a strong political leader. Trust me, I know, what i'm talking about. He had some chances to shine, but he didn't.
And, most probably, Putin will live for something like 20 yrs more. Quite unsure if he'll do it even further, so let's take it as is. Also, not sure if he'll do some politics in 15 yrs, tho that one is just my guess.
Another leader for Russia? Yeah, this could happen in some moment, but it won't be a regime change. Administrative power the Russian govt have is very, very high, it won't be a problem to sabotage any coups if they'll happen at all.
Im sure Southwest would be happy to take those Max 8 planes.
On the plus side (for Russia), Russian airlines are just gonna keep the planes they've been leasing, since they couldn't return them even if they wanted to...
Supposedly, there are 523 planes stuck in Russia right now, which are estimated to be worth 10.3 billion dollars.
S7 holds 101 of these planes and Aeroflot 89.
I imagine that will be as good as buying the aircraft outright (penalties and fines) and we know that airlines wet lease because it's cheaper in the long run. It's like having a phone plan where you upgrade to the latest model every year. Buy an aircraft outright and you'll end up with an aircraft graveyard in your own backyard with 15 years. Plus, Russia's currency has crashed and they may face hyperinflation (runaway inflation), so good luck with your debts in Ireland Putin! 🤔
Russia could leave their leased aircraft in Istanbul or Dubai
After a few years the planes will be unflyable without the parts.
@@gteixeira exactly. Russia announced today they are nationalizing these fleets of jets but with out Boeing supplying parts they are unusable. And today with chinas ominous warning exactly like Russian that anyone supporting Taiwan militarily will be attacked. Unless Biden and nato grows some balls we are in a world war. It’s so pathetic Biden is so weak to stop either country! It’s disheartening and sickening how in one year he has ruined the stability of this world!!!!! Lets go Brandon
@@gteixeira will go much faster than that
Russia's lease-cost, along with required bond insurance, just went up over 200%.
But isn’t Lufthansa a German airline?
Ural Airlines Maxes are being destinated to Arajet Airlines, a new ultra low cost airline from the Dominican Republic
my opinion is like russian undelivered 737max just give to malaysia airlines because recently malaysia airlines switched order from directed deliveries to leased deliveries at singapore airshow to recover from past two tragedy MH370🎗 and MH17🎗 beside that to replace the oldest 737ng in MH fleet it will give shortcut delivery time slot from 2023 into this year and bring more benefit to the airline and also airbus will give deal to MH for option buying more A350 from aeroflot slot at reasonable price to expand the service to europe and american destination once again.
I didn't think the 737 Max had been certified for Russian airspace
Pretty sure a Sopwith Camel could be certified to fly in Russian airspace shortly...
Close to delivering, not, “closed to delivering”.
I am pretty sure neither Boeing or Airbus will have a problem moving already built or in build aircraft due for Russia to other customers as waiting times are pretty long. And removing Russian slots in the build programme will move other customers up.
The only issue I see is whether Boeing can move 737MAX aircraft to other airlines given its history. Those who didn't order it would have been very pleased they didn't.
We could resurrect the IL-96-400 if we needed to. That would be the last resort to, tho.
And why not stop madman Putin for his criminal attack on peaceful Ukrainians.
They are still manufacturing them.
@@supreme1xbet507 They paused the program a few months ago, because of lack of orders from customers other than the government. We’ll see what happens next…
Why not reintroducing the Il-96? Fuel consumption is overrated.
Russia is supposed to be cooperating with China on a two-aisle long haul aircraft. you did not mention this at all, and what the status of that cooperation is...
Чем сильнее будет проблема канибализации для гражданской авиации тем больше будет давление на решение проблем с производством российских самолётов. Не пойму в чем хайп
You can sign up to get one of these Russian planes for free
For real?
How?
Just waiting for a farmer and his tractor to claim a passenger jet.
where at i need one for my own use and to fly the fam places😏💀
@@tyjahnjones4929 go get one asap. They are running out
There are always back doors to sanctions. For example, China will buy and sell on to Russia or buy cheap, cheap Chinese parts. That's a major "caveat emptor" as we now know how their truck tyres have performed in Ukraine. 😉
I read that the chinese are going to stop supplying spares as the russians have a track record of not paying, exhacerbated by the collapse of the ruble due to the sanctions.
@@apolofeve where you get this source?
They will end up flying the new Chinese airplanes, but won’t be able to fly about 90% of the globe as those planes will not be certified by any country with normal safety standards. The Chinese planes also use Pratt&Whitney engines so a different engine will have to be used as they will be prohibited to sell them. No small task to develop an engine that will be able to substitute for the P&Ws. Russian made planes are not confidence builders.
"For example, China will buy and sell on to Russia or buy cheap, cheap Chinese parts. That's a major "caveat emptor" as we now know how their truck tyres have performed in Ukraine."
If the Chinese do that, then they will make themselves targets for sanctions too. It's not for nothing that the Iranians have been unable to purchase airliners or parts from pretty much any source. The Chinese, I believe, can't get enough airliners as it is. What makes you think they'll want to sell on Airbus or Boeing jets and cause themselves even more problems?
@@nautilusshell4969 I suggested that they might sell them spare parts or "sell on" whole aircraft. If the latter, Europe won't know except through the manufacturer. How do you think sanctioned countries get what they need? Why do you think sanctions are normally so ineffective as a rule? In addition,, China received 142 Airbuses in 2021 - during a pandemic - and others are on order. No other country, not even one with the largest fleet in the world, has ever received that many aircraft in one year. China is also the country with the most chronic shortage of pilots in the world. My prediction is that Russia will become a vassal state to China in much the same way as Vietnam, Burma, Thailand and Malaysia were of old, certainly during the time of Zheng He.
"Politics aside" .... This could be the real, and very much needed, strong kick needed to get Russia's civil aviation industry going, not just for turboprop aircraft and jet narrow-bodied aircraft, but a much-needed twin-engine wide-body airliner and freighter aircraft.
Sadly "Politics in" .... The "Aviation Industry" in Russia is "State-controlled" so with Putin hell-bent on restoring Russia back to the U.S.S.R. Warsaw Pack days, territorial-wise, funding for military equipment will supersede everything else. Weaponry, armor, and equipment such as warships, helicopters, jets, tanks, etc. along with a whole array of electronic warfare equipment, does not come cheap. My guess is the underfunded civil aviation industry will see further cuts in its funding, adding yet further delays in the aircraft mentioned in this video being delivered and entering service. I just hope that they do not cut any corners or standards that would jeopardize the safety of these aircraft, no matter how desperate the situation.
Then...how long they survived by cannibalizing parts from older planes.....🛫🤓
Craic 929 wont be ready to replace in at least 5 years.
what I love about WAR, despite the mass human suffering, is the leaps in technology that often occur. During the Second World War, the germans came out with some pretty terrific inventions. From submarines to Bosch direct injection which most modern ICE still use. Jet engines. in chemistry they figured out how to make rubber from hydrocarbons. That's just the germans! If china and Russia need to fast track certain key technologies , like aerospace and commercial jets, they absolutely can do so.
@@ahmedmotala7282 That was world war that lasted for years killing tens of millions and at a time when the gestation period of aircraft development was a fraction of what it is today and with next to zero globalisation. Daft comparison with the current situation.
Only one aircraft needs to be delivered into Russia. A B-2.
Don't cry humanity if they strike back.
They'll send you some b2 wrekcage back by mail.
@@vavord5181
🧂
boomer alert boomer alert
Or the good ol 52s
Why does the voiceover guy refuse to pronounce Lufthansa correctly? It's SO grating, especially when he repeats it several times in the space of a minute. And has anyone else noticed that these videos have more and more mistakes? This one has "closed to" instead of "close to" twice, and on the main channel, the last 2 videos have had on-screen corrections of what the guy says. This never used to happen.
Sure, bad English and bad pronuncation grate, but with so much US media we have to swallow it.
Whilst annoying it doesn't detract from the value of the information.
I noticed the on-screen corrections but felt they were done properly - it really was what he would have said if he had thought longer. I didn't notice any meanings being compromised, did yoou?
@@JLSMaytham I honestly couldn't focus on the content when it got to the repeated "Loofthuhnza". Generally, I agree. The content is solid, although I'm sure the scripts aren't written by native English speakers. But in this video, it was simply too distracting. And for a channel dedicated to the airline industry, surely its not too much to expect him to pronounce a major carrier correctly.
@@JLSMaytham Maybe he has a lisp. I understand him well enough, and considering all the people all over the world who speak English in their own accents, with their own regional pronunciations, it's not a big deal.
Personally I blame squirrels
Well Russian can always take the train or Siberian express, or their mega Yatch
All of them.
Wonder how many airliners were scheduled to go to Ukraine based airlines that no longer exist
the sanction will stay for 30 years. ie forget about the orders, they are not needed.
Februari 24th😪🥺
This is a very interesting piece. There's a reason Russian airlines buy Airbus and Boeing, the Russian aircraft are historically shoddy. We used to see them in Newcastle from time to time and we always thought they were very brave to fly the things. Anyway, you mix the music annoyingly high, and it adds nothing, so that earns you a Do Not Recommend Channel rating.
Russia doesn’t deserve any of those airplanes.
The more the merrier.
When the PD 35 engines are redy Russia wont need any of the western manufactories.they will produce wide body aircrafts
Time to return Tu-154, Tu-204 to replace boeing. I guess chinese can help about it.
at this point russian airplanes with going to airplanes fleet by 2036
Il 96 is there
NO sympathy for any of them !
Iran is so different, it's not like they would lob missiles toward an American consulate in a neighboring country. 🙄
As long as countries attack others without military provocation harming civilians, they shouldn't have access to what the civilized world has to offer. It's a small world, we need to figure out how to all live in it without wars.
Oh wait... Israel? Ah no, it was provoked... Ok, US in Syria, Lybia, Yugoslavia, ...? I don't support what's happening in Ukraine, but you also don't have moral right to call yourself civilized world.
@@MrCheshires you make the erroneous assumption that I am excluding any nation from my words. I don't. If we don't agree that the end of wars against other nations must be dealt with seriously, we won't have a world in which we can all live in peace or worst case, one in which we can not live in at all.
@@commerce-usa Sorry, that makes sense. Can't disagree.
@@MrCheshires How can you omit US & UK in Iraq? Fake dossiers and war crimes that resulted in the imprisonment of the journalist who exposed them ( #FreeJulianAssange ). An atrocity is an atrociity whether it is Grozny or Bagdad.
Putin wants to rehabilitate the Stalin era, image management firms are trying to rehabilitate George W Bush as a simple nice guy rather than a war criminal.
There is no "good" side in this mess, just greed, avarice and over-sized egos.
@@MrCheshires Oh. The usual. Whataboutery, and "it's all your fault" "You made me hit you". "Stop hitting yourself! HAHAH!"
You're just a TROLL
NOBODY wanted this war.
NO FUCKING BODY
We were all just getting on with work and life.
PUTIN SENT THE ARMY IN.
For HIS OWN EGO, FEAR and GREED.
Simple flying: what would happen if they all go bankrupt? With your questions🤔
Read a number of comments and if anyone needs to leave the country via China and the west better do it soon before the planes start falling out of the sky due to poor maintenance!!!
Good Morning Long Haul, The Right question, for this pos should be " How many aircrafts, from Boeing, Airbus & Embraer will be grounded by Russian's Gvt, how many aircfrats will not pay the leasing rate to the lessors, and finally how long the world will be under a dictator's hands in 21st century, is it a fair deal, the sanctions are not really enough the world is Sick and Tired about some kinds of governants, Russia has 777 acft's registers in bermudas, who will pay the bill??? God??? or you will write to Poohtin and ask him to realease the money to pay maintenance and lease.
RIP russian aviation
At what point does Russia become desperate enough to reverse engineer this planes they plan on nationalizing? 🤔
Never.
@@vavord5181 lol ok bud 👍🏽
@@vavord5181 Why wouldn't they? That's what any country under this level of sanctions would do.
@@VisibilityFoggy just my feelings, it won't happen at any moment.
@@VisibilityFoggy tehy've done it before
i dont care about the future of russian aviation. i care about the freedom of western liberal democracys. + countrys like ukraine that want to live our way of live. as sooner the russian air fleet is grounded, or there economy down, as better for the civilized world.
Russia's Irkut MC-21 looks very good, futuristic, if it's introduced it will give a tough competition to Airbus A320. Airlines to have better option in picking these two jets by ditching the trouble making American Boeing 737. That thing keeps on crashing people have lost trust on 737 completely
It was going well until you got political at the end. This is business - keep politics out of it.
Just buy c919, cr929. Cover both narrow and wide body market. Russia and China is almost putting out their first great plane engine.
No need to buy from the duopoly Boeing and Airbus.
What kind of engines will you be fitting to them?
That’s messed up. Give them their planes
Give Ukraine its freedom first.
If Putin stops his dumb war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 we can consider it. It in the meantime Russia is cut off of all that is good
Scrap🤦♂️
Hopefully the sanctions will never be lifted, that way the rest of the world will never get a single penny of Russias money. They are more than capable are looking after themselves without ANY help, although they do have plenty of help on offer anyway.
Yeah. Be like North Korea.
Such fun. Such a great quality of life.
@@TesterAnimal1 they will have a far better life than we will. It's already starting to happen. You'll see
I don't believe that it will be all doom for Russia. They will do fine. And another thing, it's about time that they get off their behind stop being lazy and make their own long haul aircrafts. This is what happened when you depends on others for things. Too bad though, we will be hit hard since all of Russian wheat 🌾🌾🌾 will be going to China. As a truck driver with graduate studies in international business and technology I read the food market very well. It's not looking very good for prices and fuel cost. There will be a lot of thin people in Hegiman.
Russian airlines will order their parts in China !
I’m russian and I’m very tired because everybody hate us. We are not belong to war- only government. Russian people is very nice
It's OK. We know that.
I don't hate you, and I don't know anybody in my real life who does. I work online as a software developer and I work with Russian colleagues. They are great guys and I respect their work.
It's the government.
But in a deeper way, Russian culture seems to make people feel they need am authoritarian government. These never work well to the advantage of people in the long term. They end up staying in power too long and serving only themselves.
@@TesterAnimal1 thanks, but most of the Americans and more think that all russians is responsible to the war and hate us
I'm English, welcome to the club Russia