RUSSIA Posts Massive Financial Loss as Oil & Gas Collapses & Expenditure on War in Ukraine Soars
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- Опубликовано: 25 июн 2024
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Russia's OIL & GAS Revenue Fell over 45% in the first 4 months of 2024 compared with the revenue Russia was earning prior to the invasion of Ukraine. In addition to this huge reduction in income Expenditure is continuing to increase due to the investment in the War, which means that the Russian Economy is now incurring massive LOSSES. In this video I provide more details of the figures and discuss the problems that Russia is now facing.
For specific details please check out the CHAPTER list below.
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Chapters:
0:00 Intro
3:46 OIL & GAS REVENUE
7:04 NON OIL & GAS INCOME
12:02 TOTAL REVENUE
14:33 EXPENDITURE
17:01 NET PROFIT OR LOSS
19:43 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
#russiaukrainewar
#russia
#ukraine
#putin
#pricecap
#GLOBALFINANCIALCRISIS
#RUBLE
#SWIFT
#RECESSION
#CHINA
#USA
#NATO
#WW3
#WORLDWAR3
The biggest lost of Russia is people, soldiers being eliminated and workers leaving for better places. This will be affect Russia for years to come.
The low birth rate is much worse than just losing soldiers from non Russian regions.
Too bad the dead victims he caused never went off to a better place, but putin relies on stockholm syndrome to march maliable pawns into battlefield as cannon fodder so of course he would say differently, right?
Not years, but literal decades. If just this was the problem, it is a big problem to have. But russia has a truckload of other massive problems on other fronts. The collapse is inevitable.
Human life was never ever highly valued in Russia/USSR.
Many Russians who love Putin and live in other countries don't even want to return to Russia. I think it can be almost ruled out that Russians who reject the Kremlin regime and have managed to emigrate from Russia will ever return to Russia.
the fact that they post losses, it means it's even worse lol
Exactly lol
Ofcourse. Russia is exactly as Sovjetunion was. Their GDP was huge for decades, made russians filthy rich, but was all false. Finally in 1989 they suddenly was broke, after they mysteriously lost all their money from 1988 to 1989...Same thing will happen again for them, and this time it will much worse. Very much worse. It will be a disaster for Russia.
😆😆When they post profits it’s lies now they post losses it’s worse. You guys are in shambles. It’s like cope on steroids. It’s like when there wasn’t any money for missiles, and the $60.00 price cap that was about to bring the war to an end😅😅
Unless that is a maskirovka.
I guess could depend on it. All this non oil stuff that they somehow decided not to make and export before but has poped up now.... a war economy is a war economy but take away 80% of not oil and gas and look at it again...... not good.
And another oil depot near Kerch that supplies oil directly to the russian military in crimea was hit with drones last night and is currently on fire!
Great!
Awesome
The damage is minimal.
@@perkunast9680😂😂😂😂 minimum everyday
@perkunasty9680 yup 20 percent refinery capability less hmmmm
In short; Moscow burning through reserves saying economy is fine.
Everything is going according to Putins plan.....
Precisely
Moscow had a lot reserves apparently
@@glintongordon6811 and a lot of burning
Konstantin (Inside Russia) a ruzzian economist said ruzzian has been using the reserves and, according to him, those reserves will last no more than 6 months.
America's permission to fire on military targets on Russian territory is going to cost Puntin a lot. Thanks for your great insights Joe. Always an education.
It is only for the Kharkiv area. Biden is still too cautious.
@@PalleRasmussen they're escalating, very, very, VERY slowly. each of Poutine's "red lines" so far got crossed and nothing happened. They'll loosen up even more.
"Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted." Churchill.
@@montanausa329
Russia occupied all these small free towns and cities in last 22 months since Himars arrived in July 2022:
(1) Bakhmut
(2) Avdiivka
End of list……
Occupied territories:
January 2023: 18,009%
Now: 18,079%
(Source: deepstatemap)
Now remember the dramatically losses of russia in personell and equipment in last 22 months!
Russia lost.
@@montanausa329 CryMeaBridge 😂😂😂
Ukraine is hitting the refineries hard and that will impact Russia greatly. Thanks for your videos I truly enjoy watching them 😊
It is not just a matter of what is happening now. Win, lose, or draw in the war, Russia is in trouble for many years to come. The idea that Western companies and governments will simply say, "OK, everyone back to the way it was" is a mistaken notion. It will take many years for Russian companies to recover their financial health, and even longer for Western companies to endanger their own financial condition by investing in or buying from Russia.
I can’t imagine any aircraft leasing company venturing back into russia in the next 10 years
When Russia loses, I can see a lot of the western investment that would have been going to Russia instead get spent in Ukraine. A lot of consumer products will probably return to Russia, but I wouldn't expect too many companies to re-establish physical footprints in Russia. And there will be essentially 0 western arms-related contracts signed. I know that Russia bought a lot of military optics and electronics from the west prior to 2022. Oil and gas demand is going to go down, so such contracts will never get reestablished.
After this war, The average consumer in Russia will not be able to buy western autos, furniture or even McDonald’s for years to come. Their Economy will be so far behind the rest of the world.
@@dgthe3you write this wishing it was true, but as we speak most of these companies are still doing business with Russia behind closed doors
Added to Russia's problems is that China will pay them for oil only in Yuan and India only in Rupee, neither of which is convertible to dollars or euro, so it must buy product from them. Both have large refineries so they buy bulk crude and refine it themselves into gasoline etc, a huge loss to Russia. UAE are helping Russia convert some of the currencies, for a price. Russia is running low on dollars and Euros But it can print rubles, leading to inflation, so their interest rates are high, and I suppose they can impose price controls. They have a man power shortage in oil and gas since men have left for other industries. Truck drivers, defense workers etc are paid more. And losing 1,000 men per day in Ukraine means that shortage will grow. Three unemployment rate of 2.9 percent means there's no excess on the sidelines, so that increases inflationary pressure. We know Russia's data are a fiction, so thing are worse than published. India is transhipping Russian product and selling oil into global markets, pocketing the profits. We don't want to take Russian oil off the global market as that would double oil prices and cause a global recession. Russia has the highest oil extraction costs in the world, it's geography, and it has lost Western expertise and tech which helped them drill in hostile environments, so production is falling. It's complicated. But good work, Joe, as always. Great channel.
It's an opportune time to make a deal with Venezuela and increase its oil output. They used to put out 3 million bbl/day. Russia put a lid on that in its own interest. Venezuela needs to rethink who it works with. There's room in the Western economy for a high level of socialism in a country like Venezuela. The autocracy does not have to alienate its proletariat.
India and China buys Russian oil at a bargain price, refines the oil into useful fuels and petrochemicals and sells those products back to Russia at a premium! I don’t think that they want this war to ever end because they are making a killing at the expense of a rival nation on the geopolitical stage!
Agree.
The “non oil and gas” chart is a graphic example of the “broken window” economic fallacy. Making stuff and smashing it gives an accounting appearance of improving economics, but the thing being produced doesn’t make anybody wealthier.
Correct me if I'm wrong, please? I went to the website linked by Joe and plotted the data myself, in an effort to reproduce the claims in the video. I might be wrong (and please point it out to me if it is the case) but I think Joe made a mistake here? He plotted *total* revenue for 2021 and *oil and gas* revenue from 2022 onwards. Can somebody please double check?
Adding to my previous comment. It seems very much the case to me, as I checked again. This would explain the massive 60-something drop in revenue: he's comparing *total* revenue with just *oil and gas*. If you take the correct data, the drop looks more like 2-3%. I'd be happy if someone could check it too.
Even that would be fine if somebody external was paying for the smashed windows. But when you're both the producer and the consumer of them, it's fantasy accounting.
“EastAsia Economy…” (Orwell, “1984”)
Do you think they are produced at all? He has to take the russian figures. We dont have to belive them. Naibullah doesn't want to fall out of a window. From where comes all the machinery and knowhow. Industrialization is not running out of the nose.
Facts:
- Most (if not all) of the russian defensive manufacturers have been nationalized. The rest have been heavily taxed (and this will increase).
- War materiel does not add value to an economy - it just goes to Ukraine and kills civilians.
- About 8% of russia's GDP was defense before the war. Now it's around 32%. GDP only grew by 2.7%
The rf buying weapons from itself, lighting them off in Ukraine, and then saying that the economy has grown is very similar to me taking $20 out of my left pocket, putting it in my right pocket, chopping down my own apple tree, throwing it through my neighbor's front window, and then telling everyone at the pub that I made $20 selling apples today.
😂😂😂😂🫢👍
😂
You got the numbers wrong: about 8% of the GDP is war expenses, which is ~30% of the budget. Still an awful lot!
It's like running your own shop and buying everything in it yourself whilst still having to pay the bills. Turnover is great but profit is rubbish and not enough to cover your expenses, bankruptcy is the inevitable outcome.
But you were filmed. The apple not only destroyed the window, but also a million-dollar picture on the wall behind it. The neighbor is a lawyer who specializes in torts. He is also the brother of the homeowner AND employer of the apple thrower and feels his peace is disturbed all the more because he doesn't like apples, even if they don't fly through his window.
Can we get a graph showing Russia's draw down of reserves? It would be interesting to see a trend line to forecast date of empty piggy bank.
Great points. I’ve been exclaiming this for a month now. Every ruble they put into the war is a ruble lost. There’s no investment there. So all these companies that have been confiscated are running on a net loss in the future. More popcorn?
When you don't value human life, you also end up not caring about the value of your economy.
Eventually the economic tricks that Russia has been using will become ineffective. Hopefully Ukraine can survive long enough for it to matter.
Would guess, economy wise, they have enough reserves.
With the current trend of losses, they could continue at least 5 years without running out of money....
@@blablup1214 At the rate of progress they'll capture Kiev in 45 years and that was with aid choked out by American politics but that's finally been resolved and the European production is coming online in the next few months.
This is true but with oil being hit who knows if things wont get even worse.@blablup1214
@@blablup1214russia’s economic slide isn’t linear and it’s financially burn rate is increasing as all other mechanisms have become exhausted
@@robertpatrick3350 Naturally. But I think their war chest should have at least 300 billion. This would be enough to fight for another 3 years without any income...and another 3 years would also be a heavy burdon on the Ukranian. As they also had heavy losses over the last years....
Honestly, it all depends on how Ukraine can handle this situation . I doubt Russia can last another 2 years like this, the big question is can Ukraine? I pray to god it can.
Ukraine have no choice russia have so Ukraine will last as long as they have too
by the end of the year the number of military equipment will be almost nil....low on arty, low on tanks, low on everything with those losses everyday....not sustainable.
Ukraine is finished
@@zeeone4492 I don't think so.
Ukraine will fight until Russia has been evicted from Ukrainian land. Even if the Ukrainian military does somehow collapse (a very unlikely scenario), Russia will still need to forcibly occupy the entire country. Practically every man, woman, and child in the country will be actively working against Russian interests if that were to happen. Russia has neither the money nor the manpower to deal with that. Especially when that rebellion could still expect strong support from western nations. A couple billion pounds/euros/dollars goes an awful long way when buying drones and small arms.
Things will only get worse when the contract to transfer Russian gas to Europe will end with this year. EU already stated it will not be renewed. With this, Russia will lose another source of income for good.
It also means those pipelines become targets as UKR has so far avoided hitting them to not loose EU support. But the shackles come off now so it's on...
@@mysterioanonymous3206they just need to shut some valves remotely
@@mysterioanonymous3206 whats the point in target them if they are not used?
@@Lukky_LukeYou can target pipelines within russia...
@@Lukky_Luke to ensure the uncoupling so corrupt politicians can't abandon and reverse course and that the flow can't be redirected elsewhere, say terminals to tankers and whatnot. Also, to impose infrastructure cost on the Russians and to divert and absorb Ressources that now can't be used towards the war effort. It may even cause backpressure issues and take out or damage source facilities diminishing their capacity further.
Is it just me or does everybody think, like me, that Putin is not very good at his job. He should get fired.
Apparently the Russians don't agree. Mr. Putin was just re-elected with 102% of the vote, in what must be a new landmark for democracy.
The Hague has a spare prison cell for him.
He'll never see a prison. Maybe a window on a high floor of a building will be mistakenly left open......
Putin is good at his job in the same way that Saddam was good at his.
Out of a cannon
Russia is in the business of exporting fertilizer and scrap metal to Ukraine.
And getting zero revenue for both.
Ukraine just hit the Russian Kavkaz oil port with a Neptune missile. It looks like a black mushroom cloud of burning oil that's been burning for hours now.
Great.
Yesterday I watched interviews with mainly Russian Pensioners.Some live in absolute hovels and after paying utilities have very little for food,which for some items have trebled in price.The cost of medicines which a lot of old people need is out of reach for some.That is the true state of Russia
Yes, our Russian channels are full with Western poor districts, homeless and jobless people 😅😅😅😅
It's called propaganda 🤓
they don't live in Moscow or St Petersburg ---- in other words, they do not matter.
...and as they keep watching state TV and media they blame the west for this.
A friend of mine lived for a short time in Russia. Friend told seeing pensioner collecting food from garbage bins. This was probably 10 - 15 years before this war.
@@anomymouse5043 Yes, our Russian Internet channels are full with Western poor districts, homeless and jobless people too 😅
It's called propaganda 🤓
Don't forget that the Ukrainians have been targeting oil and gas shipping terminals. Can't sell it if you can't ship it.
Ah, the classic broken window scenario.
Imagine that your economy was largely glass window pane production and the government wanted you to ramp up production so that the government could break every piece of glass produced.
Instantly, the glass business is booming and your GDP increases.
I mean… I don’t see any problem within that metaphor. It’s kind of how the majority of businesses operate
Yep. I knew an idiot who lost his job and said all he had to do was vacuum the house. He took £500 a week out of his savings to pay himself £500 a week, just to do clean the carpets…..
@@ekothesilent9456 It isn't about the businesses. Businesses cater to demand. It's about the government, their use of resources and the ways that this can pervert statistics.
If the government hired 500,000 people to dig holes and another 50k to fill these holes back in, it would be a silly claim by the government that these people are doing productive work while pointing at the boom in the shovel business as further proof of a successful endeavor.
@@MrTreacletime This is exactly how government "creates jobs". Unfortunately, your friend will be allowed to fail and then ask for a pay raise.
@@busboy262 I don’t see the problem in your metaphor either…. The vast majority of all transactions can be described that way. If a government had the money to pay that 500,000 men and they got paid for their work than their work is inherently valuable. If I pay for a seemingly useless item, a painting for instance, and then I immediately destroy the painting, then there’s no issue, the painter still got paid to do something that is effectively useless. Just like the men getting paid to do something effectively useless- dig and fill holes, as long as they are getting paid than there’s no problem or dishonesty or anything else. I’d also mention that as a former soldier I got paid pretty fairly for simply digging holes and then filling them later. It’s not really as insane an example as you might think…. So again I don’t see the issue, perhaps you could explain more but actually point out the issue
Russian war economy is like produce ice cubes and store them in a hot and sunny place...
but heyyy, at least they put umbrella to cover that ice cube, like their outdoor toilet tanks 🤣
Funny
GDP is such a crude measurement that if Russian companies started doing that, it would count on the positive side of the balance sheet.
To sell the ice cubes to tucker carlson or trump in those russian ice cube grocery stores in the frozen water soup isle, next isle over from the water flavored jello made from frozen water. Should put a boot on the wheels of trumps plane because he just lost over 30 counts that he said he was innocent of, that putin puppet.
China needs a long look at Russia. THIS COULD BE THERE FUTURE TOO
They both have a demographic problem. In China there will be mainly old people and few to support them for a long while.
it's having a long look and thinking that Putin might be happy to sell Siberia cheap to them, if they wait long enough. 🤩
Delusional comment
They are in terminal decline. The girls that were born are treated like a princess, add narcissistic personality and social meadow means these women are not marrying until they meet a prince . 🤴 equals no babies baby 👶
ruSSian bots cry more!
😭😭😭🤖🤖🤖
CryMeaBridge
@@nk-moin Move to Russia it's much cheaper and the jobs are plentiful! Go ahead you can do it! 😉😉😉
@nk-moin I live in the UK the cost of domestic fuel has gone down.
The cost of diesel is down, too.
Inflation is down, too.
@@nk-moinPrices came down. I am paying less now than before pandemic 👍
Congratulations to update us with these valuable information. Ignore the haters ! Surely coming from the troll farms in Russia...
non oil and gas revenue is not a revenue if the state is paying guns with oil money, it's expenditure....
But they count it as revenue... Because reasons.
That is the problem with GDP. You break something and the GDP goes up. Let’s say missile costs 1000000 euros. It counts towards the GDP and only destroys things.
it would be like a company that buys it's own stocks, citing the sales as profit. Russia thinks it has a perpetual motion machine economy.
@@verttikoo2052 missiles are part of GDP, but only if you're selling them. when most of countries are buying those, it's part of their debt.
@@ivok9846 They are part of the GDP when you are using them.
Russia has moved to an ouroboros economy. The snake wasn't eating enough, so it began eating its own tail. If you look at calorie counts, it is eating better than ever. On every other metric, it is shrinking fast.
Ouroboros is the great dragon of the Book of Revelation, which surrounds the earth as a dark aura.
It feeds the Russian psyche now.
@@Lund.J Interesting revelation being that nobody ever walked on water off the pages of a complete fiction book, not even harry potter.
The maliable frontal lobe, narcissism, stockholm syndrome frameworks of remarkable willful ignorance.
@@truetech4158
Matthew 7:6, is obviously written for you.
Who do you think "swine", in it, refers to ?
The Bible is allegoric.
Do you think "talking serpent" refers to a snake crawling on the ground?
Do you think "walking on water" refers to levitation? "
etc...
Are you a little child, really ?
..don't throw pearls to swine.."
@@truetech4158 Lund makes a good point, in that you are taking the allegorical parts literally, and taking the literal parts allegorically SO WELL, that...
You are doing just as good a job at it as the Christ-Stains do.
All these figures are actually in Russia Ruble. Of which the gov prints a lot. With inflation rising and FX rates decreasing, it's normal to see 2024 figures topping previous years figures (when they do).
Look forward to all your videos. Especially the ones concerning Russia. Would love more videos on the effect of drone attacks on oil facilities, which ones, etc. Great job, Joe.
The Ukrainians are smart, they are not attacking oil and making the global price go up; they attack refineries so Muscowy has to import gasoline, diesel, etc.
Seconded
We all know the Russian numbers are massively upgraded to look MUCH beter. So if these number are actually not great, then in real they must be truly terrible.
well we can´t know that for sure ... but what is 100% sure is that it would a look a lot better if they have not started that war for them
@@masteryourkitchen-areyouga7237 I am sorry, the Russian said they would not attack, they did. They Russian that they came to get Nazis, then satanists, then biolabs, Russians claim the moskva went down due to an internal fire, the Russians claim to have shot down like 2 times the helicopters and planes Ukraine had, Russia have destroyed much more tanks Ukraine had. Russia claims to shoot down 20 stormshadows per attack,.....
When, seriously when, have the Russians EVER reported the truth?
People just want to see if it shows in the streets
Russia is transitioning to a Potato economy.
Back to a potatoe economy
An influential global body has forecast Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the US, this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany
@@zeeone4492 Which influential global body?
@@zeeone4492🫣🫤😂😂😂😂 poor soul that didn't make it to school 🎒🎒🎒
@@zeeone4492Indeed.....if you CONCENTRATED on the CONTENT of the presentation you would have known that the economic growth is BASED ON THE MANUFACTURING OF ARMS,which will be DESTROYED in Ukraine....which means that the economic growth = F#@k All....MINUS a few %.........Maybe you should take an interest in watching Micky Mouse Comics,as opposed to watching Joe Blogs.....you might find it a lot easier to understand....You might also enjoy Bugs Bunny and Donald Duck...Happy Viewing..!!!!🦧🦧🦧
It should also be noted that these figures are in rubles and ruble has lost one third of its value since 2021... when you account for that in the revenues, the numbers look far worse.
Can anyone actually buy Rubbles at the moment?
An influential global body has forecast Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the US, this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany
@zeeone4492
The more destroyed russian tanks, the bigger the russian growth.
I'm not sure if you understand.
I'm not sure you were listening!
@@zeeone4492 IMF data is based on Russian official data. If you believe everything that comes from Kremlin.... well.. good luck
The purchasing power i think its called was what came to mind when a russian soldier returned from fighting to find he couldnt afford any housing with his 2 million saved rubles. He said he could only afford a used car of a kind i think was russian or chinese he went on describing it as a very cheap car.
He went on to complain that in moscow and st Petersburg the housing market had risen so high only those who come from small Siberian areas could afford a house with what they saved saying he would of made more doing a labour job and stayed in moscow.
I believe it was on warthog defense RUclips channel.
If you could show the living costs for average people like soldiers in russia with housing and vehicles would be very interesting to me. Oil and gas numbers are great for the government but the average russian doesn't have stocks.
Yes, so imagine how angry the surviving soldiers of Moscow will be in the future when they go home and find that, even if the Kremlin paid them as promised, the millions of rubles are near-worthless. Putin's genius at work again - military training for millions of men who will become very very angry in the near future.
I don't think paying yourself for your own expenses using your own cash reserves is really going to work out the way Russia thinks it will...
The petrochemical industry in Russia is working at a loss now and with the recent changes in arms restrictions I'd expect that gasoline and diesel will be import products and in short supply. They can sell all the crude they like, at a loss.
Maybe that's why "Inside Russia" says that the general who was in charge of the army has been replaced by an economist.
But he's a Soviet style economist, nothing good for Russia will come out of that.
Ukraine's economy is also in tatters, but as long as it keeps being backed up by the allies, it won't collapse
Note that Shoigu had no military experience either.
It's one of the few criminals Putin thinks he can kind of trust. Whether he can restore the economy is only secondary for now.
Yes, an economist trained in the Soviet Gosplan. And we know how well that worked.
The non oil and gas 'revenue' is not really revenue, but expenditure from their reserves, if I got that correctly.
It's good to show data that russians are provided, then we can assume their things are actually 10times worst than the data shows.
You are doing great! You are an information channel. If people want silly dances and entertainment they need to look elsewhere. Thanks for all of your research and effort. Not easy work.
I wish you would add one more slide showing estimated national reserves and how they are on a downward trend, as well as a best guess of where they will be if the trend continues for the next six months. In other words, how much longer until the nation is bankrupt?
Ukrainian targeting of oil & gas refineries seems to have an effect on those financial numbers being published by the Kremlin.
Russian troll: but destroying those refineries creates scarcity - driving up oil prices and allowing Russia to make even more profits from oil! Putin is a genius that runs on tiger blood! Winning!
Well, that's exactly why they are increasing their taxes. Don't forget that that is also a source of revenue.
Konstantin @insiderussia has been bang on with Putin's [post inauguration playbook. Taxes was top of his list.
That is also the snake eating its tail
they also added in the first quarter a requirement for businesses to give up a large % of their international currencies as well as instituting a tax on the ccompanies - one - off supposedly . But that is the probalem - the sources of real income are drying up ----- and the russian oligarchs are probably thinking that they did not sigh up for this ---- SMERSH time & lots of tea and accidental self-defenestration ...
Thank you Joe ❤️. You're the best 🎉.
I am from South Africa and I say you are making it all up because Mr. Putin paid me 3 coconuts to post that!
You must be rich now, that should be more than enough to pay for 1 month of electricity without any blackouts in South Africa.
3 coconuts? fck, i just got 2 rocks..
Whats the conversion rate for usd?
6 Bananas, I was hoping for some vodka and borscht.
ne!
Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland have agreed to give Ukraine huge sums of money as aid. Norway alone will give/has given just under 100 billion US dollars to Ukraine. The four other countries also contribute large amounts. It was in the news today.
Norway alone 100 billion US Dollars? Naah, nowhere near so much even if they are generous.
Uh, 100 billion dollars…LOL. That’s 100 billion Krone which is less than 10 billion usd…
Thank you ALL supporters of Ukraine and defenders of democracy!
Hey! Australia is contributing an incredibly substantial AuD$31 million!!!!!’🤣
But what Ukraine needs is men. Will the West risk WWIII by sending them? Perhaps, since they are now going to allow Ukraine to bomb inside Russia. Back in 2019, when the US was planning the proxy war in Ukraine, they feared escalation. They said that: "calibrating the level of assistance to produce the desired effect while avoiding a damaging counter-escalation would be challenging." Now, as with Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq II, finding themselves losing, they are escalating as always. The fear of "a damaging counter-escalation" is being ignored.
Another Joe Blogs vid to warm the cockels of my cold uncaring heart. Thanks, Joe.
You know you are getting old when charts make you excited.
Inflated rubbles distort the trend charts. I wonder how much different the charts would be if denominated in US$, EU€ or GB£. Especially the international trade of oil and gas.
An assumption made by many Russian economist was that pre-war 40% of the budge was funded by direct taxes on oil and gas exports. With a total of 60% of government revenue being dependent on oil and gas. E.g. another 20% of the budget is funded by taxing workers and other businesses supporting oil and gas.
So when you see the Russians claiming an increase in non-oil and gas revenue the question is from where? About 1/3 of non-oil and gas revenue comes from oil and gas which is collapsing. The only thing increasing in Russia is war spending, but that's just a case of the government printing money to give to defense contractors which it gets some of it back in the form of taxes. Russia's war economy and data still smells to high heaven.
Dog at the end of the video is a lot smarter than your average Russian
That's not fair. The average Russian has to deal with the realities of the brain-dead leadership.
But that was a Russian in Gilly gear.
yep that must have been what that pig was I saw flying around the other day too😂
It’s the British that are smart with no sanctions but have entire cities going bankrupt😂😂you can’t make the level of cope up
@@williamalexander9485😂I’d much rather live in Britain than Russia. Britain has the 6th biggest economy in the world, dude. Level of cope?? You can’t be serious. I earn below the £30,000 average, but I live very well.
Slava Ukraini, hope!
Ukraine already won ❤❤ Russia is and will always be the biggest loser in this war
@@micaeloliveira2727The same loser as your Western Partners, that are still trying to install their idiotic democracy during their history.
Thanks again for your realistisch analysis 👍
The one thing missing from this is how much reserves does Russia have then we can make a finger in the air prediction when they will run out
Well, there are indirect indicators for that. The tax raise they are discussing now is a good one. You don't raise taxes if you can get money from other sources.
I would love to know how much they have left in the piggy bank with so much expenditure, it must be draining fast.
Total revenue is actually down if you take into account the ruble. For instance April 2021 total revenue was 9998 bil rubles ($129.974 bil USD) and April 2024 total revenue was 11684 bil rubles ($128.99 bil USD) given the value of the ruble. And that is the "official" exchange rate.
Russia will never want to do a 3-day special operation again when it remembers Ukraine...😂😂😂😂😂
Absolutely nobody in Russia said anything about 3 days
Who said 3 days... Google it
Maybe not in 3 days. But in 2014, Putin said he could take Kyiv in 2 weeks.
Non oil and gas revenue... translation, tax the crap out of the people. Also Russia has not changed. A 100B Ruble order is way less than that when the skim and graft is taken at every step along the way.
Mongol - Muscovite horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
USSR fell apart post the Cold War, many of their best minds went to the West.!
@@AuralioCabal-nl8gi I knew one Russian woman whose father sold everything up and ran the second he saw Yeltsin dancing on the TV. "This country is going to collapse imminently, I would rather throw away trillions of rubles per annum and have tens of millions of pounds per annum". Not his exact wording, but a pretty accurate picture of his thought process.
@@AuralioCabal-nl8gi Your right, Soviet science was the best in many areas. I don't want another cold war I just want one person gone. The Russian people need break from horrible leadership.
@@ryanreedgibson German scientist captured and carted off to the USSR just after WW2.
Ukraine 2014? They did take crimea after all
Excellent analysis as always Joe! 👍 Hopefully the financial end of the war is near.
Hi Joe, you mentioned the need of dipping in the reserves but didn't show the data about how have they evolved since 2021!
Maybe you could add it for the next video, it could help to estimate a timeline until such reserves are exhausted.
I wonder why the Russian Financial Ministry still has its website address using English letters and not Chinese 😂
Because it cost Rubles to change it... and Rubles are in short supply.
😂😂😂
Another horrendous problem is that Russia is spending the money set aside for social services such as pensions and health care to continue the war.
Record russian revenues so long as the government pays itself.
Well done, again!
Good job, Joe. Thanks for quoting your sources - so important!
Another outstanding report. Top job Joe.
Joe the graph are deceiving as they dont take into account the drop in the Russian currency to say the euro
That really only matters in terms of Russia's trading partners' currencies. However, the larger point is that Russia is exhausting a long period of savings and there is clear evidence [coming tax increases] that those reserves are getting very low. There is also evidence that military contracts are being issued at levels that effectively eliminate profit. The Russian economy is in very bad shape, of that there is little doubt. These things take time.
You know what they call non oil and gas revenue? Taxes.
There is no benefit to Ruzzia to release the "Actual" figures when they can make up any numbers they want, so the real figures have to be at least twice as bad as the graphs show.
But why is Putler releasing this info?
He doesn't personally control everything, these reports are produced every quarter/year/period of time.
He release this data for many reasons, but the most important reason for him is the value of propaganda. That is why he "blow" up all data so it seems Russia that have an economic success. In Sovjet union/Russia it have been their way for over 100 years. Not one single year they come up with the right numbers.
Joe, keep it up, great info and very much appreciated!!!
Actually, as it relates to 2021 "net profit" at the 18 minute mark, Russia did not post a profit in "every single month of 2021." To go from a cumulative profit of 10.7T rubles in November 2021 to a cumulative profit of 9.6T rubles at year end 2021 means December 2021 had a loss of 1.1T rubles.
Great Video Joe
Hello Joe 👋. How about a Video on the State of the Russian Reserve Bank Account? I keep hearing that Russia is Running Out of it's Money stashed in the "Rainy Day Account", but it seems to go on and on. I think this would be a Great Topic for you and as always, keep doing your Fantastic Job 👍
Free Potatoes won't save the Tzar.
when will the Russia run out of reserves?
I just don't understand why the richest country in the world (in terms of resources) wanted to annex even more land. They can't manage what they have already stolen, conquered or annexed....
Because the land behind the Aral massive is not only rich in resources but also largely under- or undeveloped because this area comprises of mainly ice deserts in the North, or dry steppe or marshland, hardly suitable for agriculture on a large scale. Basic necessities and equipment have to be transported over long distances on difficult routes. For these reasons, Russia can only exploit its natural resources at great financial and material expense. Its costs of oil and gas drilling is twice as expensive as for other OPEC countries. This explains also why Russia has struggled ever since to raise funds for investment to modernize and diversify its economy without foreign investment.
resources is probably a big part of it. Controlling Ukraine would make their borders easier to defend (by pushing further west towards the mountains). I think a large part of it is the population though. Russia's population is shrinking in general. But if you drill down on who in Russia is having children, it's even worse. Ethnic Russian birth rate is quite low while those who are not ethnically Russian have higher birth rates. So the percentage of ethnic Russians in Russia was shrinking too. Ukraine had lots of ethnic Russians living there. Also Ukrainians are a lot more similar to Russians in terms of language and culture than most of the other people they've forced into their empire. Securing the Ukrainian population would help them shore up their population issues, at least for awhile and allow them to continue to be a regional power for another few decades.
He took Crimea because he liked Sevastopol and all that easy shipping from the Black Sea. He wants the rest of Ukraine for its newly discovered treasure, rare earth minerals and oil deposits. He’s happy to cause environmental disasters in Ukraine, to drive its population away, and seize everything.
Greed.
@@ThatGuy-bz2in thank you both for your considered replies - it is an interesting conversation. The US has successfully exploited the NorthSlope - not so difficult to clone those actions on the Russian side of the BeringSea...& those well paid cold weather workers fly to Hawaii for holiday. I had always thought Russia could have joined the EU, attracted Western workers & leapfrogged into a progressive economy.....We forget that we can conquer a country easier economically not militarily....now Russia will be flooded by China's massive population...for example. AquaSib is already preparing to pump out LkBaikal's water.
You're Great Joe, thank you for the content. ❤
Just more propaganda
@@zeeone4492 Get back to your damn lawn then, ruskie.
Thanks👍
Hi Joe thanks again for another great update.
Yes, you always get those who are brain dead and can't see reality!
For an 'old' bastard who studied some basic economics years ago, to get a more realistic picture, i would just take the non oil and gas income of 2021 as the relevant figure because using expenditure on one use armaments and is like pissing against the wall.
One thing that is missing here about the data is that in 2023 the average USD to RUB exchange rate was around 1 USD=80 RUB, while in 2024 the average has been 1 USD=90 RUB. So the value of total revenue expressed in USD is 10-15% lower for 2024 then shown in the graph
Slava Ukraine
So many lives lost for economy not good
Thanks!
THANX. by using your site for basic info last year my figures predicted what you said today to happen would happen by March. I feel this is the beginning of the end of hiding how bad things are in Russia. Lack of funds to provide money for infrastructure, transportation education and health care will soon be highly visible to the population. It will start to cause visible unrest. Inflation will grow rapidly without government money now being used to compensate.
Thank you for the upload Joe and your welcome.
YAAAAAAYYYYYY SANCTIONS !!!
Another banger from Mr Blogs
FORZA JOE
CONTINUA COSÌ 💪💪💙💛💙💛
If this is what they are showing to the public and more importantly to the west. The real situation within the Russian economy must be dire.
So basically they're just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship.
Wasn't this limited operation supposed to last just a few DAYS? 😅
Meanwhile on day 827.......
And putin taught it would be easy they said on russian TV they should of gone for moldovia instead not Ukraine 😂😂
it will be the last 3 days at the end of the war not those days at the beginning .
Don’t they also sell grain, wood, metals.
They do. They absolutely do.
It's confusing, but those are not numbers of economic growth. Because the non oil and gas revenues come from the state, while the oil and gas revenues come from exports. The non oil and gas revenues are actually a drain on Russian economy. "Russian Total Revenue" is misleading because it doesn't say from where the money comes from. Edit: of course you can increase your economy by draining your state reserves and by going into dept. Until the state is out of money and the whole country collapse into chaos.
the big problem with russian state transitioning to a war economy and then providing that capital expenditure to fund those factories is that they do not get any tax revenue back on it when its sent to ukraine and destroyed. what makes matters worse is putin is printing roubles now to finance his war.
Love the graphs
Khuilo-nomics
Great reporting Joe
Thanks for your update....
The Russian Finance Minister has to keep all his balls in the air. Each year another ball gers added. Eventually he's going to drop one. Whole he's trying to catch that..... "and the walls came tumbling down". He's going to be up to his neck in balls.
Probably his own! 😅 Either that or he'll fall out of a window...