Peter Zeihan on who is going to win the US election | 30 with Guyon Espiner Ep.10 | RNZ
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
- Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan tells Guyon what New Zealand needs to do right now if it wants to survive the end of globalisation, why China's days are numbered, and who's going to win the US election. Watch 30 with Guyon Espiner every Wednesday at 3pm | Subscribe: @RNZVideo
I wish one of these days a host would review Peter Zeihan’s past predictions.
He had the timeline for the Ukraine War completely wrong. I think he’s biased on the Trump chances but he’s interesting to listen to and I generally learn a few things each video.
@@DraftedByTheMan He did predict the Ukraine war 10 years ago though. I agree through, he's hit or miss, but always convinced of his own greatness. His point of view is totally CIA
I know. It's almost ridiculously funny. How does Z get these interviews?
@@jasonsstrattoneven a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in awhile. Every once in awhile Z gets it right too. 😂
Any prediction can only be based on what is known and extrapolate. Peter is very specific that his statements are based on what is going on and assuming that nothing changes. So, people make changes. Then his predictions end up untrue.
"Biden in a landslide." Wow, this aged well. LOL
😮
i came here to say this lol
"Let's just entertain the idea that you are wrong just for a second". That's not Zeihan's outward persona 😅
Trump is likely to win by a landslide
Zeihan is knowledgeable on many things, but political forecasting is not one of them. He’s very much pro-empire class
@@brooklynbud1138 You're a Russian Bot I suppose. Here's the logic. Take 2020 as the starting point. Since then, who's support has increased? Actually, Trump's has decreased. Abortion lost Trump women. Biden's economy is kicking ass. Trump falling asleep in court and using his diaper doesn't help either. Trump meeting with business leaders where he can't put two thoughts together hurt him there.
Except your not doing anything against the Houthi are you. Or the pirates in South East. Just remember you in that part of the world.
@@brooklynbud1138 What makes you think he supports imperialism?
I believe me, therefore i am Peter Zeihan
No one is more convinced of Peter’s great intellect than Peter.
Definitely. Total narcissist and con man.
He so confident it makes him believable.
A bit Blinded by his commitment to never trump.
He's an mk ultra clown. sadly too many are brainwashed like him.
It’s so funny how he has a great way of sounding so confident that he can’t be wrong. At least to him anyway. I knew a few like that in college. They would emphasize certain words and could never have any doubts.
I watch a lot of Peter's interviews and this is the first time I have visited this channel. Whether you agree or disagree Peter's views of what is coming in the near future, I thought this was a very well done interview. The interviewer really got into the details of Peter's predictions for what comes next. Good job and good luck New Zealand.
There is no guarantee Peter’s prediction is right. But it’s guaranteed to be objective, which is much better than anyone else.
Objective? No. Peter does have political biases…
yes -- great job pushing back with informed 'counters' to peter's talking points, to get to that next level of response, and I'm a Peter fan
@@HankSemoreButz Who doesn't? But it is refreshing to see Peter balance between both parties. And if you watch his videos the only president he backed was the first Bush, who lost. Even that tells a story as the first Bush had more work credentials than almost any president the US has elected. Peter didn't give me that. If you study or read history you know it.
Yes, facts can change but population data (ie male/female, age, birthrate) is a solid measuring tool to begin understanding why of things.
Watching Japan, for example. I read The World Almanacs for fun. When Peter explained their population problem it fit with why they were on top and have been struggling for so long.
@@space_btwn_notes it's odd how Peter mentioned in another interview that Trump would lose massively to Joe Biden this November. He also said that Ukraine would easily be defeated by Russia.
Today everyone is saying how Putin's days are numbered if he retreats from or even loses Crimea.
The Russians have a saying, "the Russian people have no patience for Tzars that lose wars.
I’m enjoying how Zeihan is conducting this New Zealand interview in front of a map missing New Zealand….
They looked at the state of the world, and decided they really don't want to be part of it.
No need to be so needy. NZ is totally respected. We know where you are!
That's the way they want it.
A little black marker work needed.
Zeihan at least exposed his real political inclination.
No one is taking him seriously.
Next Peter will say that Trudeau will win in a landslide
i think he is quite out of touch with reality
He is certainly putting his professional credibility on the line on a very short term prediction.
He is working for company based in Langley so he knows out of 350 million of Americans 700 million will vote for Biden
If Americans are deceived a second time and Trump wins this time around, the US will deserve everything negative it’s about to get. Based on everything Trump has done, is planning to do, and said, Biden should win fairly big. If he doesn’t, then America is broken and will suffer a definitive and lengthy fall.
No Chance of that happenning
Peter only forgot to account for one thing…. Events change course frequently. Imagine that.
My Criticism of Zeihan isn’t of his farseeing intellect.
He describes existing trends well from a macro perspective.
Where the problem lies is assuming that any existing trend will necessarily end at full force in its most extreme end point.
It’s true that it may, but it also may lose its force along the way as other details or trends assert themselves more powerfully.
❤ Yes, well said !
That is an oxymoron, I call this man a coward, Because that is all he is.
no he is really good at telling us " feel good story" with sketchy "facts".
its like grandma telling children everything gonna be wonderful and fantastic.
Describing trends is not tantamount to making accurate predictions...and PZ thus far (when wearing his 'prediction hat') is not too successful. His historical perspective is very good in my estimation and his musings are provocative. However, as with any individual who is keen on informing us of where, what, how and when we need to be following their expert advice...it might be wise of us to solicit additional opinion(s). NZ is an amazing Nation and I admire you Kiwis and your self-determinate success.
Yes, for example I keep asking, but what if China adapts to a lower population? Obviously the US is an economic superpower with 1/3 the population...couldn't China figure some of that out? Wouldn't the incentive be at maximum to adapt to maintain productivity beyond what a current understanding of demographic health would claim is possible? Couldn't there be huge advances in adult education initiatives to take advantage of a still huge rural population? Or if there's some other adaptation, for example, China masters a downstream variant of their belt and road project to the point where it's indispensable for the global south, or if there's a new way to make global shipping safe that doesn't involve destroyers--obvious candidate would be a combination of satellite global eyes on all shipping lanes with potent drone defenses available to make even a state think twice about interdiction... none of those critiques involve Zeihan being wrong, they involve creativity and innovation that isn't accounted for yet because it doesn't exist... yet.
My father was on an MSC ship in 1996 in the South China sea, two small ships were shadowing their ship for a day until they bluffed the pirates by sending out communications with another ship that they are docking with the USS O'Brien. The pirates then left the area.
What region? Who were the pirates?
@@YukonBloamie South China sea, pirates unknown.
That was very well done. I listen to Zeihan most every day and have read his books. Your interview was the most concise and informative I've seen.
@@MostlySteve He’s wrong some of the time, but he’s gives good context and perspective. To be well read means reading many books. His are worth including.
poor you.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting the end of the world for quite some time now, and has become a popular prophet of doom. Fortunately for the rest of us, he has continually been wrong, but this has not stopped him from his mission to bring us all down. One has to admire his persistence.
@@bryanjackson8917He definitely sensationalizes to sell books. And even worse, he’s from Iowa. ;)
Still, I think he provides a lot of quality information. I just wouldn’t make him your only read.
You are not the brightest bulb in the chandelier
I want you to bookmark this video and let’s come back to it in mid November.
You don't have to. Here is what's coming. The Dem party will choose another presidential candidate due to Biden's failing mental health. That candidate could be communist California governor who completely destroyed his state. If he would win the election, he will destroy the country. B/c of that reason Texas will become an autonomous republic, possibly joint by other patriot states to form Texas Union, which will do business with BRICS+. If Trump gets convicted of J6, he will never be able to run for president again, b/c J6 is considered treason. There are many who want to see him in prison, for different reasons. If he is not convicted and runs, Robert Kennedy Jr will take votes from Trump. It is quite possible there won't be an election b/c general Flynn and the military will take over in a coup, to avoid ww3 by negotiating peace with Russia.
God I hope he’s wrong.
Im quite certain he is wrong... lets see the debate
@@tomharper8351
All of the metrics he's basing it off of are correct.
The only thing that would save Trump would be double digit shifts in minority votes in some of these swing states which some polls are showing but would be unlikely to actually happen. Polls had shown similar trends in 22 and it was a GOP disappointment.
@@MakerInMotion
This is still a motivating factor Biden will likely exploit, even special elections as recent as this past month have shown a Dem over performance compared to polling.
A brilliant interview - this is how you get the best out of Mr Zeihan. Have him interviewed by a competent person who also knows what they’re talking about and is prepared to control / direct the interview. This is the best dose of Mr Zeihan opinions that I have had the opportunity to listen to in ages. Many thanks to Mr Espiner for a job well done. I particularly enjoyed listening to Mr Zeihan analyse of why Mr Trump is going to lose in a landslide. Not to mention the harsh but realistic outline of how New Zealand has to go about getting a free trade deal with the Americans.
LOL new zealand,home of the libtards..
Shame they don't show dislike numbers
Have been following Pete for a LONG time. Throughout the course of listening to him you can begin to see a track record. He is careful to be overly subtle, but he does indeed align with US Democrats. It comes as no surprise that he interprets global conditions that will favor Biden. However, wading through the propaganda machine I venture to say the average American does not have Pete's world insight and they vote on a much smaller level of comprehension. And most of that is direct wallet related reaction. My prediction is a VERY CLOSE election favoring a change of course from the current.
Not a Trump fan, but he is ahead in most polls.
Great interview! Good to see someone push back at Peter. I've been following him for awhile and I appreciate his macro big picture view. I think he's right on many issues. Kiwis need to do what they feel is best for them. But choose your friends wisely and keep the Aussies close.
Peter has said that Ukraine would fall to Putin's invasion easily. And recently I heard him say that Trump would lose by a wide margin to Biden. I'm not saying that his predictions for PRC China won't come true. In fact, I believe the ones about PRC China will, much like I did Gordon Chang's predictions about China's economy collapsing, being triggered by a massive real estate crash.
I would too but I think there are few people informed enough to argue with him
@@bozolito108 it's hard to argue with him because people give him so much credibility and attention for his predictions, but it's difficult to ask him for his sources.
Gordon Chang's predictions regarding China's economy and system breaking beyond repair, being triggered by extremely overpriced and over produced property and China's shadowy Banks , accompanied by its massive international debts, did turn out to be true.
He is always wrong on everything
@@Nicole-yy1kn "Emotional Damage!" 😭
Where will NZ export its dairy products to when they lose the China market? The US and Europe have a surplus of dairy and want to export it too. Perhaps to Southeast Asia, or Latin America or the Middle East, but those markets are not secure without a globalized economy and their population will also be dropping. Will Africa have the capacity to buy it? I wish Peter had addressed this topic.
India. They go nuts for NZ dairy.
NZ trade with China will end up in the same predicament as Australia caused by geopolitical tensions and the choosing of sides in the battle of fear.
NZ will have to work something out with Australia, Australia will be looking to Asia form manufacturing and exports, so it makes sense.
The dairy market is about to drop; due to being able to produce dairy using the same yeast technique, as is used to make human insulin. This same method can be used to grow meat, all sorts of drugs, etc. Add to this the fact that; energy abundance is right around the corner; and it will also provide clean fresh water, abundant crops due to vertical farming, etc. The A.I. automation boom will do the same for manufacturing, home building, etc, the way it has been happening in the auto industry. If the countries invested in China speed up the relocation of their manufacturing; build up local manufacturing in their countries, etc, the world may weather the collapse of the Chinese economy.
I think the biggest threat are the countries that have joined BRISC; as their economies will be pulled down right beside China, and that is where the hardships may occur.
America needs to join the rest of the developed world; by establishing universal health care, universal higher education, by revamping our K-12 education away from the service industry, and towards the sciences, technology, engineering, etc, so we will be able to compete when the current tech boom takes off.
If the global economy can avoid an economic crisis for the next few years; and especially in America with our currently booming economy, rather than having to drag ourselves out of an economic crisis, we may see the current economy take off like a rocket.
My biggest problem is; he has a personal bias towards projecting horrific outcomes, because it gets him views, gets him more speaking engagements, and sells more books. There is a term for what he is pushing; and it's called disaster porn, which we see on Yahoo, MSN, and on many social media outlets, as it makes for high profits.
If you notice; Peter gives little advice as to; what the countries of the world should do to make the crisis he predicts less impactful.
Perhaps the nz people will finally get a decent product
Guyon, thanks for this interview. Very interesting guest and you got a lot out of him. I follow your work and appreciate it because I am a conservative who likes my ideas to be challenged intelligently.
Peter Zeihan, the most optimistic man in the world.
Pete-y is neglecting to mention that he was predicting skyrocketing fertilizer prices to land 8-12 months ago. There was supposed to be mass starvation by now. Huh.
He always underestimates the actions of Individuals.... So many people are used to the Central planning as big plans going wrong, and they see those as business opportunity is, so they'll just start growing food elsewhere to meet the demand, didn't it something similar happen with the natural gas stuff
The price of fertilizer had already exploded, and mass starvation is occurring, it's just not outside your door, and it's not reported on like really pressing issues, like Joe Brogan speaks out on Mr Tater Head going woke, or the Prince of Bel Air goes rogue at the Academy Awards. And yes, I'm aware that these examples are old news, but they're still pressing...
@MoonDoggie-hs2se I know you think you're clever, but the facts say otherwise. I live within 200 yards of an agricultural fertilizer and chemical store. I work out with the Sr. Manager of another in the next county. Fertilizer prices spiked just a bit at the start of the Ukraine War, back to normal now. I have 20 neighbors that are farmers. They complain more about low corn and soybean prices than the costs of fertilizer. Which means there's plenty of food. When all those starving people have something valuable to trade, they'll be fleets of ships rushing there.
@@steveputman9545you lost me in your first sentence.
Stay lost bro@@Joe-ti7qd
Summary: New Zealand needs to trade milk for manufacturing machinery, when the latter is at the cheapest.
Send us your frozen lamb, that's always been popular here in the UK.
..America doesn’t need milk….
Peter has never mentioned the scenario where China actually becomes a democracy like Taiwan. I posted the question that received one strange comment saying the culture was "viscerally opposed to the pillars underpinning the type they need".
When I replied, Haven't you ever heard of the Tiananmen Square Protests that ended horrifically? The comment was never posted. When I edited my previous reply to reflect my follow up about the Tiananmen Square Protests in 1989, that reply was DELETED.
SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN DENMARK
@@speedwagon7562 but New Zealand, China, and the entire world needs freedom of navigation. The UN does not enforce anything anymore. It just subverts through hegemony now.
@@secretbassrigs , how on earth could they possibly become a democracy, ( something that would assume 80+ yrs ) of struggle, when there’s less than 10 yrs, before total collapse…?
He is right about NZ making It's own products, instead of depending on China imports!
Why isnt NZ on his map on his back wall 😅😅😅
Because New Zealand thinks they’re important but there not, kiwis think they’re important but they’re not.
Nz is a dump and brainless, no one cares about New Zealand apart from people that live there.
Because no one noticed
@@geofflewis8599 until now lol
All cheap maps are like that
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣You win the prize for the funniest dry comment. I thought it was a hat.
One consistency found in Zeihan is that he is wrong about everything. That's the only reason I Iisten to him, to see what he is going to be wrong about next. He is clearly a unique individual in that sense.
hope you put all your savings in bitcoin
Except, can't stop the Houthis, or the pirates in South East. Your sitting here worried that they might steel your oil, or food shipments because you don't have deep water navy.
@jgrlemos people have known china has a housing bubble for decades. He isn't some brilliant thinker for being able to read what their debt burdens are. It had to happen eventually. No one knew when it would be because the chinese government could have put it off another decade or 2 if they chose to.
and about ukraine, I don't think you are right. Peter predicted the war in 2014. So he predicted russia would invade ukraine months after russia had already invaded Ukraine. While it's true he predicted the conflict would expand, that wasn't an unlikely event given that russia had already invaded them.
@jgrlemos The Russian invasion didn't occur until 2022, ten years later, so he was wrong about that. I predict World War III will occur. So if there is another World War in the next 100 years, my prediction is right? Of course there is going to be a World War III. Russia always attacks former soviet states that drift toward NATO. That's like predicting there will be a forest fire next year. China has not, and is not going to have the problems he predicts. Besides, he constantly makes false predictions, and if you throw enough predictions out there, even earth's top moron is by chance going to get something right.
What about Cramer ?
You would think that being dead wrong over and over again would cause him to pause and reflect, but he just can't stop saying stupid stuff. I think he just likes to hear himself talk.
Yes, Zeihan is confidently ignorant....very American.
bingo
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Clueless to the point of neglegant
He's not dead wrong most of the time, though. The overall global trends he's predicted are accurate, and nobody can predict every single detail perfectly.
He is being paid handsomely for saying what he says, and he is trying so hard to outdo Gordon Chang.
During a recent vacation Zeihan expressed his appreciation, almost love, for New Zealand. So it is curious -- it is certainly not intentionally an affront -- that New Zealand was omitted from the stylized world connected-land-mass map that he often uses as a backdrop for his virtual interviews. Back in the 70s and 80s I worked in R&D with a New Zealander who said people back home were quite aware of the same flaw in TV newscasts received from America, IIRC, the backdrop for Walter Cronkite on CBS. On both maps, more than a half century apart, New Zealand simply doesn't exist. Peter should correct this!
There's nothing to correct if the US is not calling for an invasion of New Zealand by Australia. It's absolutely different from the way China coerces other countries and companies to stop mentioning Taiwan as a sovereign country and recognize Taiwan as a province of China.
Who cares
@@atapene 🎶"Every time I look around.... Every time I look around....Xi's in your face!"
Is PRC still adding the dumb 9 Dash Line to their backdrop maps of Asia? Didn't the international courts find PRC has no legal grounds to declare ownership of the Spratleys than bury them completely in sand, within Philippines EEZ.
Sorry, but NZ is just irrelevant in most World news. It is just rolled in with Australia.
This guy has been wrong about almost everything he's talked about in the past 3 years. It's amazing that he can speak with such confidence with such an awful track record.
What did he say that offended you?
@@wantanamera No offense. He's just wrong on almost everything he talks about.
@@FooshNick064 riiiiight
@@johnthomaso4208 pfft everyone hates him....
Long haul shipping is being attacked by the Houthi. China has revealed massive debt and their economy is collapsing you sell you milk into those markets.
Zeihan's hat is amazing. Very chic.
"Biden in a landslide."
Peter... Comment?
Unless he has a meltdown on stage- finish the quote
@@julianskinner3697 was he so out of touch he didn't know biden was going to be that way?
Great interview, Peter Zeihan is always brimming with insights, never afraid to make bold predictions, and always fun.
Who's here after last night's debate? 😂 Another wrong prediction from Zeihan 😂
Was the election last night? Please come back in 5 months and eat some humble pie.
@@geraldcukor2962 So Joe's out of the running now.... I was gonna make a comment about the humble pie but let's bring the country together instead. Vote RFK!
@@roryoconnor8959 was the election the other night? Zeihan had a proviso about his prediction; if both candidates are still in the race. Now Biden is out his prediction that Trump will lose still holds because more people utterly hate Trump than the MAGA zombie crowd. RFK a completely wasted vote currently.
Watching this on July 14th: 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣🤣😂😂🤣😂😂🤣😂🤣😂😂😂🤣😂😂🤣🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣🤣😂😂🤣😂😂🤣🤣😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣😂😂🤣🤣😂😂😂🤣🤣😂😂😂😂🤣😁😂🤣🤣😂😂😂🤣😂😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂😂😂🤣😂🤣😁😁😁🤣🤣😂🤣😁😁😁🤣😂😂🤣😁🤣🤣😂😂🤣😁🤣😁😁🤣🤣😂😂🤣😁😁😁🤣😂
I think the home wind generators are going to be the way to go for a lot of people. They're even making them for campers. Much cleaner tech too I think.
The Chinese Economic Model is based on Selling what China Produces to the outside World.
The local consumption although China has a Billion + population is weak.
When you compare the life style of EU Citizens with that of Chinese Citizens, there is a huge difference. In other words the EU purchases what it produces and more from outside Europe.
What happens is, in China without selling to the outside World, you have an unbalanced Economic Model. All those Chinese Factories will close down if they don't sell their products to the EU the US and other countries.
In the US or the EU, there is a very vibrant local economy, which means they can rely on themselves 100%. They consume a lot but they know how to produce what they consume.
Any interruption of Economic Relations between China and the US or between China and the EU, hurts the Chinese Economy a lot.
For some reason many around the World saw China selling to the outside World as a Strong point, but it's not.
If you don't buy what you like from this supermarket, you will go to the next one.. this is the example that applies to China's Economy. But China's leaders never based their politics on this reality, they instead tried to act as though they're a power house in spite of not having a strong consumption Society. Personal Health personal Wealth etc..
La joie de vivre or the know how of things.
China has an excellent Economy as long as it has outside Clients, so it's the outside clients who buy China's products that have the leverage of power in this relationship.
What is the population of the West as compared to the rest of the world?
Totally agree. The Chinese, also, totally agree with you. There's a huge national drive now in China to produce goods made from Chinese resources only and for domestic markets.
This is what Trump understands that apparently no other US President has since China joined the WTO. The CCP is beyond evil & it seems they have pissed off The West enough to finally get some pushback. It seems Trump was right in 2016 when he called out China.
The reason they saw it as a good idea to sell the world manufacturing base to China was US lawmakers opened a number of loopholes that essentially acted as points of entry for public funds to be laundered into the private sector and enshrined behind private business protection laws to both shirk responsibility and cover their theft under the guise of 'privacy'. This fundamentally is what set everything in motion and what really created China's rise of the past 40ish years. Our own leaders sold us out to China simply because it gave them an entirely new layer of loopholes to rob the taxpayer. And of course Uncle Sam was more than happy to outsource that model to our allies...
Sorry everyone, it's actually our(US) fault. Some of us know it, but we're slaves to that same system. We're working to fix it, please be patient. Our entire system is designed to stop us from fixing it so it will take time.
@@ansa336More importantly, what is US consumption compared to the rest of the world. We have been in love with cheap foreign made junk recently.
This didn't age well. 😳
Oh, and just look at the question: 'what PROBLEMS can we expect, if Trump is elected?'
"Oh, Biden in a landslide"! Want to take that one back?
That was such a great interview. I can’t wait to see more.
Didn't age well after last night's debate!
or a couple months on
It's hard to swallow your pride, or worse to tell voters they need to swallow their pride. I know it would be tough for me to hear from my representative that we have to cave in to some other country's demands because we need them. I guess we did go through that a bit in the 70s with OPEC, but it was not a popular time for our government.
He's saying this because many of NZ's exports already have production within the United States so benefit to the US would be quite limited for any free trade deal without conditions of some sort being in place. I have no idea what those would be, but that's the issue here. California alone has dairy, fruit, wine, and software industries that'd only be harmed by just jumping into free trade w/ NZ while NZ producers would gain free exposure to a massive consumer market.
@@blakebrown534 no. That's Not a reasonable anti-US narrative. The US is already the largest exporter of food to China. It's current sanctions and tariffs are a repeat of Trump policies due to China's aggressive, unfair, and not allowed under WTO RULES economic practices. The EU is finally doing very similar for the same reasons.
@@blakebrown534 that just wrong and insulting. The US is the #1 net exporter of food in the world. There's no need to monopolize anything, especially at the cost of losing allies and business partnerships. The EU, even though it's implementing massive tariffs on China, does still plan to increase their food exports to China. It's suspicious of you not to mention that, BUT blame the US immediately.
@@secretbassrigsthe farmer and rancher voting bloc is strong in the United States. Politicians care about being elected first and foremost.
@@texasforever7887 non sequitur Chicom ..... Please Read this 👉 黄猴习近平哈巴狗，你也该救救你的便便了。大陆要在很长一段时间内才能因怜悯而出现另一个经济奇迹。 🇨🇳👍🇰🇵
Working Assumption: he is a Security State asset.
Peter's words, while not exactly correct, are a fairly concise articulation of the ego of the US. They are worth hearing. He's telling you what the US as a conscious entity would be thinking in his own way
There are many Americans who disagree with Peter, including me. I am watching Argentina, glad to see that Meili is succeeding.
@@KathyAndrew The ego is not only always wrong, but it actively subverts our pure intentions. I described him in that way intentionally
As an American, I don't feel America would sound like Zeihan if it were a person, but there would a similarity or two, such as his confidence.
@@brandonlyon8632 I should clarify that I was speaking strictly from a geopolitical lense which is only one of the many perspectives by which something so complex as the US could be broken down.
@@adamconner9302 Completely fair, thank you. 👍
Peter is really off base on most of his predictions but his fiction sells well.
And because there's three FJB flying in your neighborhood isn't a strong indicator of a candidates standing among voters. MAGA thinks MAGA is everywhere and encompasses all, when it's actually uncommon, and encompasses very little.
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se …..just as most democrats aren’t represented by fringe left wing kooks. However whispers amongst my independent voter friends in california are that they are voting for trump. Shhh don’t tell anyone.
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se
trump 2024
@@MoonDoggie-hs2se I do a lot of driving, through deep blue areas and "lean" blue areas.
Aside from a scattering of Ukrainian flags and "in this house" yard signs, I have seen ZERO indication that Biden has any support. I see more enthusiasm for Jill Stein. This is borne out by the sparse attendance when he tries to have a rally.
If Biden got zero votes in November, based on this lack of enthusiasm, I would not be at all surprised.
Trump? 10x the support of any other candidate, and it tends to be organic (actually on people's residential property) rather than increase-name-recognition public streetcorners.
MAGA is pretty common, and the fact that you still get social opprobrium for it in some circles, discourages more of his supporters from speaking out.
You had me at "have you cheered up at all since then?" Subscribed!
When we got to his prediction of a Biden landside, I tuned out.
NEXT !
It's true!
Can't handle the truth, eh?
I wonder if Zeihan is so confident about "Biden in a landslide" after that 1st debate performance
and morning before debate, Nate Sliver had Trump at 65%. Now, on Polymarket, Biden is at 21%
This guy proves Yogi Berra's axiom. "Predictions are really hard. Especially about the future."......over, and over and over again.
Peter Zeihan volunteers yet ANOTHER prediction, maybe this one will be right!!
I wish he'd stick to Macroeconomics... thats his actual area of expertise, he's been selling himself as a "Geopolitical expert" recently and its mind numbing how many people take him way too seriously.
Hes consistently wrong about geopolitics, but with Macroeconomics he really does have a PRISTINE knowledge base, i use him for updates myself.
But the Ukraine war really put him in the big leagues, and he can't admit he's ignorant NOW... Hes finally getting recognition 😂
Agree here 100%.
Someone needs to lock him in a room with 100 years' worth of global economic data, and not let him out until he's properly read through it all.
_That_ would get us some worthwhile presentations. =)
Why isn’t Bitcoin negative by now , Peter ?
Sssh you might Just piss off my Friend larry fink whom is deeply invested upon it.
😂
Warren Buffet agrees with Peter about Bitcoin.
Even if NZ was this dependent on a friendly country like Canada or Australia, we would be recommending diversification. Dependence on a nation with malevolent intentions is not in NZ best interests
As an independent voter, I’m disappointed that we have two knuckleheads on the ballot.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting the end of the world for quite some time now, and has become a popular prophet of doom. Fortunately for the rest of us, he has continually been wrong, but this has not stopped him from his mission to bring us all down. One has to admire his persistence.
Eh, 1984 and Brave New World are worth a read. So is Zeihan, in the same way.
I do feel that the value of Zeihan is less in his predictions and more in his examination of the global moment. Whether he's right about where things are going is less important than whether his facts are correct - and he does seem to have a great handle on the available data.
Comforting to get confirmation from Zeihan that Trump has it in the bag.
In much the same way as when Jim Cramer says to buy a stock ...it's time to short it.
BIDEN WINS! 🇺🇸
This interview for Peter Ziehan did not age well. Did not age well at all. Biden is out. RFK supporting Trump. So wrong on so many levels. I like Zeihan but sometimes he is wrong. 😅
It's pre-ordained, the whole two party election is all but a dog and pony show, and Trump proved himself too much of a liability after Jan 06. As for Zeihan, he's a plain propagandist selling the narrative of those who truly hold power.
NZ would be better without a squillion dollar trade deal with China, China is a lovely place with lovely people but, China's products are landfill after five years, Beijing is increasingly assertive in foreign relations, it's economy and manufacturing are faltering, we are selling a milk product to a largely lactose intolerant population, global shipping is increasingly less certain, and most of our eggs in a fragile basket is not a good policy to base our economy on. NZ's reality is that we don't need to import so much, especially so much rubbish. We don't and can't for much longer need Warehouse products, Kiwi's could actually wear Kiwi made shoes and eat Kiwi grown food. Cheese, wine, wool carpet, hemp fiber building product and software tech exports can happily sustain us without China and ideally without the US either, given that they're so belligerent, and our export focus has to be Australia and South East Asia because of inevitable disruption to supply chains. As Zeihan attests; NZ is in the best position in the world to withstand global uncertainty and if we have competent governments we'll be okay. But that is a rather large if. Good interview Guyon.
..Because we have tried to get a free trade deal with the US since WWII and failed..So the Clark Labour Govt got one with China which was great for our trade but a strategically risky idea..
Progress on US FTA be like Japan and take whatever deal we can get.
You have to know someone in the States with a business license that will work with you , to be able to even think about doing trade with America , and that's doing it under the radar as in quietly 🤫
If someone tells you to do something you don't want to do, and they have something you want, work out what you need to get away, buy it at the right time, then tell them to bugger off. In that order.
What Lao Tzu didn't have a clue about. But Aotearoa learned in 1987.
And unfortunately the things you list the New Zealand could make are minute fraction of what we need to maintain or improve our current lifestyle.. all of that software, hardware Tec etc. is reliant on being able to buy/license it from global providers, that’s before you even look at transport and transport fuels.
okay I'm going to have to watch the happiest movie I have after this. Also as an Aussie I can jump ship to NZ at any time if he's right
I pray for Peter Zeihan to be the next American President
I used to follow Peter with a good degree of “belief” in his predictions. But after 10 years of listening to him, his accuracy rate is SO LOW…. Dismal
This combined with the past few years watching his incredibly strong SELF BIAS which is very evident and apparently he can’t get past it. It is indeed the hardest bias to get around, though it doesn’t even look like he cares about it.
Damnit, I almost feel “fooled” and I have lost most of my respect for his creditability and of course, NEUTRAL OBJECTIVITY.
He is a propagandist. He is trying to move people's minds in the direction his masters desire.We have all become much more awake in the last ten years to the types of methods he employs and they are working on fewer and fewer of us. You should feel happy and satisfied that you have increased your mental strength to the point where his type of methods no longer work on you as intended. It is like riding a bike, once you see what you see, you cannot unsee it and you see it everywhere it tries to affect you. You can't forget how to ride a bike.
Same, I still like listening to him and read 2 of his books. Remember political bias caused Jane Street to lose on one of the biggest trades of all time (over a billion), these traders are smarter than everyone in the country but can still be blinded by politics
great Zeihan
@frankshifreen He is great at running away. That is only thing that is great about the man.
Possible return? Return. 2024 is a done deal = Trump.
I bet you said that in 2020 as well. Get ready
Respectfully, how? Legitimate question, no rancor implied.@Tim900whiterock
@@jimcameron9848 There is a .1% difference between them according to today's aggragate polling .
also my comment about removing women's rights. If you think women are not going to fight for those rights you are mistaken. !5 year olds are being forced to have rapists babies. That is real.
@@Tim900whiterockthe overwhelming majority of abortions have nothing to do with rape, incest, or the health of the woman. True dignity is derived from taking responsibility for your choices. We don’t do anyone any favors by pretending abortion is reproductive health. We all know deep down it’s murder. No one has a right to murder another human being.
Peter's new book "Confidently Wrong" is available in stores now!
Anyone that thinks they are insulated against the future is kidding themselves
16 hours ago... Biden isn't even running... Peter???
WTF are you talking about?
nz should be finding other markets to spread risk ..
@@quintrexone562 whose population?
@@quintrexone562 cake!
@@quintrexone562beef, pork, lamb, we prodce a lot if it?
Peter can put a lot of word salad together. But can’t help himself with bias. I would not rely on this man. AT ALL. History has shown that
One strength that NZ has that some may overlook, is innovation, creativity, and resourcefulness.
Kiwis are known throughout the international racing world as some of the _very_ best mechanics. If you're in America, chances are Amazon has whatever you need in a warehouse somewhere in the country. New Zealand? Chances are if you need a part right away, you're going to have to mill it yourself, or repurpose some other part to make do.
If NZ can somehow put this to work in the custom engineering sector (with IP protections from a larger country to help out), that would be a very nice export business.
Gayon, that was such an eye opening interview. very well done, you are very good at your craft. Scott
Adolescent view, zero credibility.
Gish Gallop, "It's a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies,non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don't know where to start grappling with the flood that just happened. It's a form of gaslighting". For me as a voter, there was no debate, gaslighting took it. Shutting off the mich did nothing.
Must be why Luxon is in Japan now trying to get trade under way
Why is joe biden being associated with activities like thinking, deliberation, and strategic decision making?
You just nuked your credibility.
this guy has never been right about anything.
Global statements are almost always wrong.
Very very informative conversation for New Zealand and the rest of the free world.
Most excellent questions Guyon.
Wishing the great land of New Zealand the very best ahead!
I've been to Zihanistan and it was nasty........😮😢😊
I wonder how Peter is feeling about that prediction after last nights debate? Hahahaha
I think he would say that doesn't change much, especially with the Independents and the other non Trump Republicans. But he may be wrong
@@apc9714 "may" be wrong? there's no way Biden will win in a landslide after that debate performance
@@johnpedouifytrumps sweeps the sublet after last night. He just needs PA.
Everybody misses the point about Zeihan. He does sometimes provide clever observations on world events, yet other times he is way out of his depth. Either way, that is not the benefit of listening to him. Zeihan is a direct link into the mind of D.C. Whatever the CIA, DoD, or state department are thinking and feeling as a collective at any moment, Zeihan forms it into 5 minute clips and broadcasts it daily. The usefulness of listening to him is to gain this very clear, pro-US, pro-hegemony, pro-existing order perspective. Zeihan is like the gossipy friend in the group that will keep you up to date on exactly where everybody stands with eachother, and everybody accepts this breach of privacy because it serves a function. Zeihan is not preaching to you about his personal beliefs, he is the willing messenger for the most poweful elements of corporate and political America. He's not a lowly shill, he's a champion for the ruling class.
Biden in a landslide quote 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
ruclips.net/video/VFPuv_OZDg0/видео.htmlsi=7QiUSLsfgh5XjGJp&t=9m06s
That didnt age well. 😊
Oh sure, Peter, just ignore the war in Europe. It escalates every 5 minutes. It will probably just go away (sarc).
Apparently just like his view of inflation, just ignore it and say government needs to spend more. Zeihan is bought by the democrat campaign I guess.
American here: NZ leadership, govt & business, every one, should watch this. You needn't act on his advice, just take each of his points and investigate it yourselves so you can act ahead of time. I've always liked you guys. No, don't choose some Chinese deal over a Western one, you'll regret it.
bookmarking for reference to prove Zeihan is a crank
" Biden In a Landslide " talk is cheap he should put his money on it !
Zeihan makes compelling arguments, but with antiquated facts. Right at the top he argues that an 800-destroyer US Navy is required for global freedom of navigation. No, it doesn't. You need quick response forces and sea drones launched from cargo ships to neutralize those threats. Zeihan is not living in the 21st century.
What on earth are you talking about? A cargo ship with drones is nowhere near as flexible as light frigates and destroyers.
Your analysis is flat out wrong.
Explain how your quick response forces are keeping the sea lanes open?
@@goarmysleepinthemud. These aren't theoretical. Dutch, Belgian, and French flagged ships are using this tech right now. American and UK QRF's are striking Houthi attackers almost daily.
When someone calls RFK batshit crazy, I know where they get their information. I used to like listening to Zeihan but for the last year, I realize he is very p
Peter is a state actor, easy to show as well. In this interview he talked about Trump and the Republican primaries. Now, instead of listening to him, compare how the Democrat primaries were run and the Republican primaries .
Interesting. How accurate have his past predictions been? He certainly doesn't prevaricate.
Not many, if any
@@Master-ng9uj
You type without citing a single example or source.
Don't trust me. He is the best.
With good data and intelligent analysis predicting WHAT is likely to happen is not too hard. Predicting WHEN is much more difficult.
Years ago he predicted Russia would invade Ukraine by 2022.
Peter Zeihan has to be the most well spoken carpet bagger I've heard in a very long time. He certainly uses convincing main stream selective data to back his rhetoric but on the whole he consistently is proven both wrong and transparently pro establishment.
I'm surprised at how blunt Zeihan is that New Zealand ought to abase itself to US interests to get a free trade agreement. The example he gives of NZ's best path forward is the Japanese "accepting an absolutely humiliating trade deal that gave in to Washington each and every thing that had ever been an irritant in the relationship." I can see that having the US as a trade partner could be beneficial, but aren't there other partnerships (India, Australia, SE Asia) which might be close enough to defend in a post-globalization world? Additionally, the US already has an excess of most of the goods NZ has to offer, so even with a free trade agreement, the economic benefit might be limited.
Both Russia and Chinese economies are breaking down and falling. They are not an opposite pole from America. But rely on America for the prosperity. You want to move on this and encourage you nation. This will protect you because Australia is going to start to outpace you soon.
Why do you dignify him with an interview he is paid by corporations and governments to spout untruth.
Would u buy a used car from this guy?
Im really wanting to hear peter tmmr morning discussing dropping biden from ticket and what the election landscape looks like with Harris
This is the fifth wave of American isolationism. The results of the last four all led to war due to American withdrawal. All of the following came about because of American withdrawal or distraction:
1. Quasi War; War of 1812; Barbary wars
2. Pastry War; Franco-Mexican War
3. World War I
4. World War II; Korean War
5. ISIS war; Russian invasions of Ukraine; current Gaza War.
Zeihan is a broken clock
Espiner questioning the reemerged piracy point is simply embarrassing .. maybe at RNZ should pay some attention to global news.
One clear point from Zeihan's talk is that with de-globalisation there are tough decisions ahead. For domestic NZ politics - basic questions: what is the value of emerging 'tribal fundamentalism' to NZ prosperity. Can you afford to put 'cultural sensitivity' first when the inputs to our agricultural system (Phosphorus, Nitrates, Potassium and Diesel) evaporate? Maybe Shane Jones is right to seek foreign investment in oil/gas and mining industries while global capital is still available. Our sustainable agriculture is the thing that will save us from the cold winds that are likely to blow around the world. Maybe National is right to forestall entry of our agriculture sector into the ETS; to delay adding a cost to producers who need to focus capital on productivity growth in the face of declining input resources..
The Green's will be happy ... de-globalisation and de-industrialisation will see billions of people facing serious food insecurity. The good news, from a Green perspective, is that starving and dead people emit less. However, I am not sure that Green/Labour/TPM have the policies to prevent a significant degradation of the NZ standard of living.
Winter is coming!
Global trade will continue after the US has gone (If it does go!) it will just be different and "maybe" cost a little more, allied countries convoys and such like, the US only had a global role for 70 odd years, a dog watch, the World has been trading longer than that!?!
And Peter didn't predict the conservative sweep in the European elections. I predicted this years ago. I guess I know more about geopolitical issues than he does. He probably thinks Ukraine is defeating Russia.
He's delusional. Whoever wins, it's not going to be in a landslide. He loses credibility with that tripe. He definitely turns me off and I tune him out.
Petet Zeihan is basically a democrat. It comes out in obvious ways. He occasionally says something like this,There are a lot of things about Trump I don't like, but he did this pretty well. I have yet to hear him specify what his problem is with Trump.
He is a shill for the democrats and doesn’t really try to hide it. He suffers from TDS so I ignore him in domestic politics. I really like a lot of his other views though.
No, he isn't. He actually dislikes Biden's policies and disliked Obama quite a bit. He is a self-described Green.
He stated his problem with Trump in this interview: he is batshit crazy.
@@iconifyme exactly.
Peter Zeihan is the smartest of all top talents in the world'
"I am an internationalist"
We know, Peter. We know.
A new Monty Python character.