Was This Paul Skenes Sale A HUGE Mistake?
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- Опубликовано: 5 июн 2024
- Paul Skenes was the number one draft pick in 2023. He was highly touted as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. This past week Paul Skenes' Bowman Chrome autograph superfractor sold for over $80,000. In this video the Spitballin' team debates if this sale was good, bad, or ugly. We also discuss Aaron Judge and if he could be a good buy still after his hot start.
$80k is a bit insane for a pitcher who just started to play. Since he is a flame thrower good probability of Tommy John in his future. I hope it doesn't happen. My guess is someone with mega dollars in wealth bought this card. $80k for this person is like $8 for us hahaha. I like Aaron Judge but like Jeff I passed on buying rarer RCs due to the prospectus of injury. I was wrong. I do like Soto more because of his age. But I do wish I bought some Judge RCs. I even passed up on Judge's Field of Dreams nonRC short print which was more affordable at time. That's the beauty of collecting/investing. Limited money but unlimited appetite lol. Thank you guys for the cotent and insights.
Thanks for watching and commenting!
Chris here - at this point every pitcher is a TJ risk. A sad reality of the game today.
Like you, I assume the buyer didn’t spend his last $80k on the Skenes card!
$80,000 for Paul Skenes is called "taking money off the table" and you're a true WINNER for selling it and using the proceeds for potential lifestyle changing things like a new car, paying down a mortgage, paying debt, saving for retirement, etc.
As a collector from the 1980's, we've all seen "Busts" and Studs who turn to Duds, after debuting hot and colling off or getting injured. Anyone who proclaims "But Wait, this time it's different with Skenes!!!" are misguided. Even HOF pitchers cool off. Do you think Skenes can become the next Nolan Ryan? Or more like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Pedro Matinez, etc.if he's blessed with consistency of success. Can you image any modern era HOF player card being worth $80k? The whole notion of a 1/1 isn't as prestigious as it sounds. Sure, it's "one of a kind" but the card companies create these daily every year in so many variations. Babe Ruth has a 1/1, many through a plethora of releases through the years. Population is only important in a supply and demand situation. I think the Michael Jordan "Autographed Logoman" 1/1 is a joke in valuation in terms of it was created as a collectible and not organic like his rookie card.
Walking off with $80k is smart. Sure, it might go to $250k, but it could just as easily and more likely go down to $20k either due to diminishing performance, injury or a more popular "next big thing" rookie comes to the league. We've seen so many flavor of the month players.
High ticket big money cards are created for "flipping" exchanging hands over and over like a game of "hot potato", they're rarely long term investments, so the smart card sellers/buyers know it's a gamble and about timing. It's not investing in wine that ages well in time.
Chris here - I totally agree. If I had a card that could sell for even close to $80k, I’d list it in a heartbeat! That’s real life changing money. I love the hobby, but not that much
Thanks for the thoughtful comment!
Aaron Judge fan for life 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥😎💪🏽💯😎👌
Kinda like the NWO...... 4Life
With Judge it’s all about staying on the field!
As a senior graphic designer, I have to laugh at the concept of someone buying a card for $80K that was created by a small group of designers, after getting the photos from the photographers, sent to a print house and is at the mercy of a printer. The $80K for a cardboard design is a credit to the photographers, designers and printers behind the scenes. Waaayyyy overpriced for the physical property it is. Keep in mind that the material cost of making the card is less than .75 cents per card depending on material of paper minus labor. Your hobby needs a better pricing guide than using Ebay and auction sites. Didn't you all have Beckett back in the day? You should do a show on the behind the scenes on how these cards get created.
I don’t even have any constructive criticism for you on this one fellas. Good episode
Thanks for watching!
Ty pulling out the Mums reference made me spit my water out lol!
Ty is a wealth of random references!
Pitchers!!! The Ryan Express was a locomotive machine. Rarely broke down. 😎💪🏽💯👌🔥
My favorite player of all time! Was my hero when I was a kid. Been collecting his cards since 1988! 😁
Ryan was incredible! A genetic freak of nature!
Congrats to the seller of the Skenes card. I love Skenes, However, the odds are against him having a long term HOF career. Not a fan of paying $80K.
Chris here - agreed! A perfectly timed sale by the seller.
Next week when Skenes goes down you will both (Jeff and Chris) be right... :) Micromanaging prospects is exhausting. Nothing like getting "trucked" (T-pot) for a Wander Franco Super. An Instant 6 figure crap. Where can I sign up? ~ Q: Does a 6'-7" 255 pound man translate into a thicker ligament (ACL)? ~~~Vintage anyone?? Chasing prospect stats is a heroin needle... the high wears off & FAST.
Skenes is military. If they go down, they get up.
@@davewebbtheauthor Can he get up from an ACL tear in two weeks? OR is it 18 months like everyone else?
@@popsmoke99 Lol, way to mention a small percentage injury. Just sayin they are a tough breed, so relax.
A larger body/frame seems to hold up better to wear and tear, but these new pitchers coming up are taught to push the limits rather than taught longevity it seems. I would be a buyer after establishing a positive stat track record especially on pitchers.
@@erichjenson7278 Agreed. Pittsburgh is smart to limit his pitch count and innings. He throws hard. Hopefully he proves to be durable over time.
character matters 2me+from all available data-judge's character is as high as anyone i've ever examined. His humility surpasses his homerun power, which says alot.
=IMO a living legend on multiple fronts-all rise: - )
Fingers crossed he can stay healthier in his 30’s than he did in his 20’s.
Cards are worth what people want to pay. Nothing else matters.
Very true!
Mark prior.... they also said his mechanics were great as well. Great show guys
Yep. And the perfect pitcher's body they said, he won't break down.
considering 15 pitchers have injured their arm this year alone, it's a long shot!
Chris here - a tremendous long shot
all of a sudden the pitcher market is heatin up. Great to see. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper superfractor 1/1's sales back in the day were game changers!
Chris here - all it took was a couple Cole and strider cards to make me walks way from the pitcher card market.
Only retired arms for me from now on.
Of the two big names you mentioned - I’d rather have the Harper!!
I like Judge. But the price to age ratio is why I’ve stayed away as well. I’d only be in the market for a flagship gold. But I’d rather spend that on another guy for what his golds are demanding.
If I lived it a world where I had 80K to blow on a baseball card of a pitching prospect, I’d buy that card in a heartbeat. But I don’t live in that world, and that’s a crazy price for that card from my perspective.
Good point on Skenes
Chris here - buy the card you want, if you can afford it!!
Great comment, thanks for watching!
I could've taken that 80K and bought something simple, like a high dividend ETF (SCHD per example) and used the dividends to fund my hobby. People blow my mind sometimes
remember, dude who probably bought that 80K Skenes card probably has so much disposable income that it may be equivalent to you/me buying a 3-4K card. Dumb buy still of course, but you have to put it in context.
Chris here - I assume the buyer wasn’t spending their last $80k on this! Haha
80K…. Holy moly
IN-SANE!
Dang you guys hyped up Soto and he gets removed with left forearm soreness. In what could be total coincidence Dominguez was also removed from his game in AAA shortly after. Something to watch closely
🤞
Chris here - hopefully this is a big nothing.
But forearms issues tend to lead to elbow issues.
Jeff here: we can't lose Soto!
Hard to ask what someone would pay for this card or a card in general is tough. Everyone’s finances are different. Someone who makes 100k a year compared to 10 million a year values things differently bc of there worth/income. A 1k purchase to someone that makes 100k is equivalent to a 100k purchase for someone that makes 10 million. We all play on different fields.
I guess I'll always be closer to that $1k purchase type person than the $100k 😥
Chris here - great point! Buy the cards we want, and can afford!!
@@floridamaddogg nothing wrong with that. Plenty of ppl out there can only afford 50 or $100 purchases. It’s all about the money you have to work with. It’s all relative.
lets say judge plays the outfield until 35 then dh's for 10 more which is possible. under those circumstances would you think he is a good buy now?
Chris here - so he plays until he’s in his 40’s?
Does anybody do that?
If he can, then hell yes he’s a great buy
If he plays until he's 45, he will go down as an all-time great! I don't see it happening, but it would be great to see as a baseball fan.
@@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin maybe not 45 but I could see him mashing for a long time if he doesn't have to play in the outfield the whole time
Being a huge T-Pott fan that I am, I’m going to blame this on the mysterious beverage in his red drinking glass, but at the 7:58 mark I’m going to have to request a professional, light-hearted, friendly debate about his Caitlin Clark take. :)
Chris here - I’m sure Ty is up for it!
And yeah, what’s in that drink???
Being the real deal or not isn't going to matter. 80k is just way too much. 100% it'll go down. Not even a small chance.
"you could buy a whole buncha mums..." 😂
Spitballin T-pot > SCI T-pot
Everyone talks about pitchers frames and builds etc. I see why ppl say it. But in reality it doesn’t mean much. Tendons and ligaments aren’t drastically different among others athletes. The time and years it takes to build them up will really surprise ppl. And even building them up isn’t what you’d think.
Chris here - injuries can be so random. We like to look at guys built like clemens and Verlander, big guys and tell ourselves that they’re less likely to hurt their arms because they use their legs so much.
Not sure if makes sense. But you sure hear it a lot!
Thanks for watching
No way I’d pay even close to that for a pitcher. I’d put that into some vintage or a few other cards as well like Phil said
Chris here - after my winter buys went south (Cole, Stider) I’ve sworn off pitcher cards.
For 80k I'll find a Porsche 911
yes 🔥
Skenes doesn’t charge $550 for an oil change 😉
@@Philmington Yet!
Scott got to that livvy dunne page real fast.
😂😂😂😂
This argument is more about whether to set $80k on fire quickly or over the long haul. If Skenes does have a great career this $80k probably has potential to hold value better than $80k spent going after say 100 singles at $800 each.
That’s an absolutely enormous if lol
Chris here - haha, I laughed at your first line. It’s a crazy price. What kind of career will he need to have for that card to ever sell for more?
But maybe the buyer just Needed It??
Of course not. Just ask all those who bought Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor in the 90s 😂
Chris here - man the wary 90’s hype around those guy was INSANE!!
I guess Chris was eating chicken chunks. I like the comparison of what you could get for that amount of money. I know there is something said to say you have the best card of a player but when you can get a top top top card of about anyone for that price then it seems like it doesn’t make sense
When in doubt, I’m eating chunks!!
I agree, If I’m spending $80k on a card, it won’t be a young pitcher.
If you are buying for an investment, it seems way over priced especially compared to other pitchers like Verlander, even if Skenes has a Verlander like career.
If you are buying it because you love Paul Skenes and a have a ton of money, it is worth it because someone else was willing to pay $80,500 and there is only 1 of that card.
Chris here - I like to say “buy the card you want.” Assuming this buyer didn’t spend his last $80k on this card, I’m happy for him. And I hope he’s thrilled!
Amazing card but I don’t see how this will be a good investment. Just think about what kind of career he has to have for this card to be a good investment. I hope the buyer doesn’t get burned on this purchase but it’s way to risky.
Chris here - agreed. How does the card go UP in value from here??
Still a little meat on the bone with Jared Jones, and if you are feeling a little riskier can look at Jackson Jobe too.
Chris here - I’ve said I’m done buying pitchers. But Jones is intriguing.
Damn Scott. Let Phil feel good about his purchase. Lol. Also. Pretty sure it was a buy now/Flip towards end of season at the earliest.
Scott is the Fun Police! 🤣
Langford has less then 150 Ab's. Not quite a bust yet. lmao. Gunnar was horrible pre-July last year, now he is one of best 22 year olds in the history of the game.
Good point
For 80k, Scott could fill out the blue void behind him with decor.
😂😂😂😂
Judge is awesome....when he is playing 166ops + I believe for career
Thing he has going against him is size and age
Not a frame at injury history but you never know. Maybe he’ll be more durable in his 30’s than he was in his 20’s!
I agree mostly with Jeff. Judge doesn’t have to necessarily be a HOFer. He’s a Yankee and the captain at that. Ask Don Mattingly how popular he was and for the 80s junk wax, his cards hold value.
Chris here - very true. Mattinglys rookies easily outsell those of his HOF contemporaries (McGriff, Smith, Baines, even Boggs!).
We got through this whole podcast without Phil talking about Skenes' buttocks, delts, thighs or pecs? You okay Phil? You at least got to Yordan's calves obliquely, so I'm not too worried. 11:07 Nice Mookie Red! Kudos to whoever bought that! 29:00 "What do you want for that card Phil?" The correct answer: "Your firstborn." Judge is generational. It's just a question of injury for me. Yes, he won't compile with his late start. But the whole Yankee thing and him bouncing back this year? It's getting harder and harder to deny it.
Haha, good stuff Will. That would’ve been my optimal response on the Judge question for sure.
Chris here - I assure you that had I been there I would’ve very subtly guided the conversation towards somebody’s glutes.
@@SpitballinCards 😂😂Next time! Ya boy Freddie looked good tonight.
This is a bit off topic but I would love to hear your thoughts on the imagery of the 2018 Topps New Era set. The Mookie, Freddie, and Ohtani cards are pretty neat!
That's my captain right there! My dream card to get of his is the true blue bowman chrome auto. Idc the grade I'll take it!
That’s a nice one! SilverJackify has the Miguel Andujar equivalent lol.
@@Philmington lol there was a time albeit short time that one looked to be a good pickup!
Great episode as always guys. Sorry, if I don't think any card past 2020 is worth $80k. You guys also mentioned investable Yankees and never mentioned Volpe. Curious why?
Why does it always have to do with $$$??? If i had a bunch of extra money why not, PS is definitely the real deal. Idk maybe im getting swept up in the hype, but isn't the hype the stuff that makes the hobby fun???
Chris here - I like to say buy the card you want! Hopefully this buyer didn’t spend his last $80k on this card.
The hobby is supposed to be fun and it IS fun but if disaster strikes, watching and $80k card sell for $600 would absolutely shatter most people.
Ask whoever owns the Wander Franco super, or the Tatis super.
Thanks for watching!
I'm filing a claim on that Judge card mishap.....for punitive damages ~ it hurt me just hearing that story~ pretty badly I would add.
For 80K for any pitcher in this modern era what type of career would he need to have.
🤔....Nolan Ryan?.... Hell u know What 🤔 Scratch that Cy Young himself the rate were going 😮😤😂🤣
@@rage508cardsngrails What we do know is thanks to theses arm injuries to pitchers they are now way too tell if any of them will have a long career.
Chris here - great question!
33:40 I stand corrected 😂
Hahahaha - you spoke too soon!!!
@@SpitballinCards 🤣🤣
Do platforms like these have the power and potential and be able to lower comps by their input?? Just curious? Cuz if I did I’m sure I probably would to and hopefully be able to come across a huge card before the player get really huge.. 🤷🏻♂️
Make sure it actually paid for since goldin had lot of big cards not paid for those that know. Strasburg sold for bigger money back in day.
I think at that level the bidders are pretty heavily vetted. But I could be wrong.
I hope that card goes up 10x and everyone finally decides that pitchers are valuable to collect.
I hope so too!!
A man can dream!
Clark has a signed deal with Panini . . . not sure of the contractual details . . . she'll have WNBA autos
If she’s got autos in Bowman University, is her deal with Topps not exclusive??
@@SpitballinCards nil deal
@@JeffreyMacDonald-vl5px but maybe autos ONLY with topps?
Joba was always big.
Very true
Would you rather have the Skeenes or the Caitlin Clark super? For me, give me Caitlin.
Short answer: Yes
Probably. But buy the card you like - if you can afford it!
@@SpitballinCards key consideration. I’m of the mind that whoever buys these cards can most likely afford them. Whether they’ll actually go up from this peak is something to monitor.
how did that auto get a 10?
Not for the seller 😄
💯💯💯
30:46 😲
There was also more footage the editor took out 🤔
@@Philmington 😂😂😂
Hanging 80k on a UCL is crazy. Guys that throw gas will have Tommy John surgery.
Chris here - sad but that’s the way the game is heading.
@@SpitballinCards I like the Aaron Nola or Greg Maddux types. Not too overpowered, but the finesse and movement on the ball is what matters.
Skenes is heading for Tommy Joooooooooooooooooooooooooohn! Can his arm hold up?
great question!
Who's livy dun?
🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
All pitchers are worthless...will be 1k card someday.
Skenes is real deal. Believe the hype.
So wasn't Todd vam popple 🙄😉🤣😂
Also believe in 50/50 TJ surgery. Don't care how talented he is. Look at the most dominant arms the last 10 years, all at least had elbow problems.
80,000 For an unproven pitching prospect is ludicrous. Anyone remember BRIEN TAYLOR?
Chris here - ALL TOO WELL!! What a crazy warning story Brien Taylor is. So much hype. I remember that 1992 Topps a gold factory set auto. I kind of want one now, just because I could never afford one then. And it has to be just a few bucks.