Thanks Tom for your hard work. 2023 was supposed to have been an excellent vintage in Cali. Will you be tasting any of those this year as some begin to be released?
Thanks for presenting the insight! After the bad vintage of 2021, I bought quite a few thousands$ of 2022 futures, because of the 'lower' future prices of 2023, I did it again. Stupid me, I guess.
Top Growths for 2022 and 2023 will not likely go down in price, so I think you're fine if you bought into any of them or super seconds. 2023 prices for top wines is so low I can't imagine those being marked down either in spite of the higher yields. The low yields for 2022 First Growths and Super seconds wines will keep the market steady for those I believe.
@pandaman1968 thanks for your input! I do agree with you & Tom that the big houses have the financial means to hold up their prices, at least in the near future. But what if some solid producers cut their prices, say by 40-50%? The natural result would be the stagnation of sales for the wines staying firm on price. For example, if in the current market, $150 Pichon Baron v $500 Haut Brion, if Pichon cuts the price, say to $80-90, what would Pichon Lalande, Pontet Canet, Ducru Beaucaillou react? If these Grand Crus follow suit, how long can the 1st growths keep the high price? A few days ago, I saw $45 chateau Clinet 2021 (regular price) at Costco as mentioned by Tom in the video. It's unheard of before. I think the market is waiting for the domino to fall. It's not if but when the others will follow suit. In my opinion, the prices of major Bordeauxs, Burgs & Champagnes have escalated too much in recent years. If the market keeps shrinking, ultimately everyone must adjust the price to survive. Supply v demand, as simple as that. Well, it's a good news for us. Cheers!
In California everyone I speak with under 35 is quitting alcohol. If there is a collapse, I'm going all in and loading up in quality but I think it will take another 6+ months and then there is no bottom. What if China really does suffer an economic collapse? Things will be even worse....
Here in France,i bought saint estephe en primeur, 24 bottles vintage 2022, cru bourgeois (not grand cru). Chateau tour des termes. I am very glad i bought for around 20 eur per bottle. This is not for investing,it is for drinking within the next 15 years. With great vintage 2022 specially in saint estephe, the cru bourgeois seemed to me a great deal due to affordable price point, as i don t plan to resell. I will open my first bottle in 2029 most probably. Only then i will appreciate the quality of this vintage.
@@coryz6880 So far I haven’t purchased any 2023’s but I am waiting for deliver of 10 six packs of 2022s. At my age putting wines down for ten years leaves in my eighties doesn’t make sense.
@ completely understand. Thank you for your response. I did not buy into the ‘22 futures, but did so heavily for ‘23. For consumption only, as I am not a wine investor.
@@winemoneysong :) My prediction for your 6-packs are: Calon, Rauzan, Cos d'Estournel, Montrose, Pontet-canet, Canon, Branaire-Ducru, and maybe three First Growths or Super seconds.:)
Three of your guesses are correct but remember Wine Money & Song is about value. Although some of the wines you mentioned maybe excellent but I don’t think they offer value. I haven’t purchased 1st growths since 2000 vintage (except several bottles at auction).
There has to be a reckoning soon in the wine industry. Wine sales in the US were down around 6% in 2024 compared to 2023, which was already a down year. While every category of alcoholic beverages, except pre-mixed RTDs, saw a decline in sales in 2024, wine by far had the largest decline. Perhaps bringing back wine coolers could be a use for some of the excess wine. During the mid to late 80s, wine coolers made up 20% of all the wine sold in the US. Congress pretty much killed that category in 1991 when they quintupled the excise tax on wine and producers changed to malt-based beverages. If wine coolers could be taxed at a lower rate to make them more price competitive there may be a market for them again. Non-alcoholic beer, sprits, and wine have tripled in sales in the last five years, so that does appear to be a growth area. Beer especially seems able to be made in a non-alcoholic version that still tastes similar to the real thing. Creating a decent non-alcoholic wine seems to be harder to achieve. As for tariffs on imported wine, that is wait and see. Trump appears to be targeting China, Mexico, and Canada right now with his tariff plan, which shouldn't really affect wine imports. Although with Trump you don't really know week to week what may change.
Tom, thank you for all the efforts you made towards this trip. I am looking forward for your next videos.
Thanks Tom for your hard work.
2023 was supposed to have been an excellent vintage in Cali. Will you be tasting any of those this year as some begin to be released?
Thanks for the comments on the French wine pricing. They sold too many tickets for the tasting in NY, sad. Let us know others that drop in price.
Thanks for presenting the insight! After the bad vintage of 2021, I bought quite a few thousands$ of 2022 futures, because of the 'lower' future prices of 2023, I did it again. Stupid me, I guess.
Top Growths for 2022 and 2023 will not likely go down in price, so I think you're fine if you bought into any of them or super seconds. 2023 prices for top wines is so low I can't imagine those being marked down either in spite of the higher yields. The low yields for 2022 First Growths and Super seconds wines will keep the market steady for those I believe.
@pandaman1968 thanks for your input!
I do agree with you & Tom that the big houses have the financial means to hold up their prices, at least in the near future. But what if some solid producers cut their prices, say by 40-50%? The natural result would be the stagnation of sales for the wines staying firm on price. For example, if in the current market, $150 Pichon Baron v $500 Haut Brion, if Pichon cuts the price, say to $80-90, what would Pichon Lalande, Pontet Canet, Ducru Beaucaillou react? If these Grand Crus follow suit, how long can the 1st growths keep the high price? A few days ago, I saw $45 chateau Clinet 2021 (regular price) at Costco as mentioned by Tom in the video. It's unheard of before.
I think the market is waiting for the domino to fall. It's not if but when the others will follow suit. In my opinion, the prices of major Bordeauxs, Burgs & Champagnes have escalated too much in recent years. If the market keeps shrinking, ultimately everyone must adjust the price to survive. Supply v demand, as simple as that. Well, it's a good news for us. Cheers!
In California everyone I speak with under 35 is quitting alcohol. If there is a collapse, I'm going all in and loading up in quality but I think it will take another 6+ months and then there is no bottom. What if China really does suffer an economic collapse? Things will be even worse....
Appreciate your sacrifice tasting wonderful wines for us.
Here in France,i bought saint estephe en primeur, 24 bottles vintage 2022, cru bourgeois (not grand cru). Chateau tour des termes. I am very glad i bought for around 20 eur per bottle. This is not for investing,it is for drinking within the next 15 years. With great vintage 2022 specially in saint estephe, the cru bourgeois seemed to me a great deal due to affordable price point, as i don t plan to resell. I will open my first bottle in 2029 most probably. Only then i will appreciate the quality of this vintage.
Did the same with Tronquoy and Capbern. 👍
@@piffpaff1482 good choice. Do you intend to drink them or do you hope to sell them in few years?
Hi Tom - Great video as always, thank you.
Did you buy any wine in the ‘23 futures?
If so, what wines?
@@coryz6880 So far I haven’t purchased any 2023’s but I am waiting for deliver of 10 six packs of 2022s. At my age putting wines down for ten years leaves in my eighties doesn’t make sense.
@ completely understand. Thank you for your response.
I did not buy into the ‘22 futures, but did so heavily for ‘23. For consumption only, as I am not a wine investor.
@@winemoneysong :) My prediction for your 6-packs are: Calon, Rauzan, Cos d'Estournel, Montrose, Pontet-canet, Canon, Branaire-Ducru, and maybe three First Growths or Super seconds.:)
Three of your guesses are correct but remember Wine Money & Song is about value. Although some of the wines you mentioned maybe excellent but I don’t think they offer value. I haven’t purchased 1st growths since 2000 vintage (except several bottles at auction).
There has to be a reckoning soon in the wine industry. Wine sales in the US were down around 6% in 2024 compared to 2023, which was already a down year. While every category of alcoholic beverages, except pre-mixed RTDs, saw a decline in sales in 2024, wine by far had the largest decline.
Perhaps bringing back wine coolers could be a use for some of the excess wine. During the mid to late 80s, wine coolers made up 20% of all the wine sold in the US. Congress pretty much killed that category in 1991 when they quintupled the excise tax on wine and producers changed to malt-based beverages. If wine coolers could be taxed at a lower rate to make them more price competitive there may be a market for them again.
Non-alcoholic beer, sprits, and wine have tripled in sales in the last five years, so that does appear to be a growth area. Beer especially seems able to be made in a non-alcoholic version that still tastes similar to the real thing. Creating a decent non-alcoholic wine seems to be harder to achieve.
As for tariffs on imported wine, that is wait and see. Trump appears to be targeting China, Mexico, and Canada right now with his tariff plan, which shouldn't really affect wine imports. Although with Trump you don't really know week to week what may change.
My only regret in my chateau tour des termes 2022 is the alcohol level 14 deg. I prefer red wines at 12.5 to 13 deg. They hammer less the head.