There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.
7:56 Since it seems everyone thought Putin could be bluffing and with Europe as hesitant as it is, it seems he felt an all or nothing approach was worth it A video about a Russia determined and ready to devote the necessary resources to take as much as it can might as well be only a few seconds Russia dominates, no contest
@@GespenstDesKommunismus _"I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine"_ Given the sizes of the Russian invading forces and the directions in which they've advanced, I don't think Putini ever planned to _forcibly_ occupy the whole country. Instead, his *military* objective was to occupy the southern coast, taking control of the ports and access to the Black Sea, thereby making a land bridge connecting Crimea and the Donbas. He's successfully achieved his military objective. His *political* objective was to overthrow the government in Kyiv, in the hope that this would end Ukrainian resistance. Kyiv still hasn't fallen and Ukrainians continue to resist, so he's failed to achieve his political objective, as yet.
@@GonzoTehGreat Not quite, he planned to quickly take Kiev to insert a new gouvernment by force and then put the entire Ukraine under the control of his puppet gouvernment using the military. That's essentially an occupation of the whole country
Binkov videos are never going to be fully accurate because of how they purposefully ignore 3rd parties to the conflicts. Stuff like global sanctions and invading through Belarus aren't accounted for.
Sadly history repeats itself his analysis was excellent and detailed but I'm an idiot and a lot of this seemed obvious to me before the war however I'm glad I was wrong overall I said Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia it can put up a hell of a fight and give the russian army a bloody nose but Russia will quickly destroy most of there combat units and destroy most of the countrys CCC in a week lol
What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.
>Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO/ Or it would result in the states bordering Russia to balance Russian interests with NATO. Thus resetting the European balance of power. >and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. So cancel America's pivot to Asia? Considering China's maritime trajectory that isn't happening. > it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives. Remains to be seen, we could also see tens of thousands of Ukrainians surrender in the first week. But i don't have a crystal ball.....
@E Cognitio Balancing Russian interests? Russia isn't the only country in the region, most countries that exist in Europe exist because they value their sovereignty, not because they want to cater to the whims of Russians. That why they join NATO, to protect their interests, instead of that of Russia.
Why would sweden join NATO? I understand Finland joining even if that is also not likely at all as Russia has no intention of expanding into Finland and bordering Sweden. Sweden is a relatively strong country, Russia wouldnt gain anything from threatning Sweden, plus they dont even border Russia.
A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly. Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response. Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.
Putin was most likely trying to bluff the NATO into giving concessions. That failed and now they're invading to most likely to save face - Just a prediction
You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.
I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.
Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!
@@frankmueller6522 Pls don't say that, America has enough influence on the world. They are massive bullies who just abuse power where they see fit. Look at the atrocities in Isreal and Palestine, Israel forcefully taking land and attacking and bombing civilians? And America supports those actions and turns a blind eye towards it, then calls Palestine aggressors if they fight for defending their own land?
The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.
1. The effectiveness of initial strike on eliminating Ukrainian airforce. One single bomb on an airstrip in a video I saw took out 6 migs. 2. How quickly such a small force would subdue millions of residents in the most densely populated eastern side of the country. 3. How Ukrainians would park equipment at schools, residential blocks and other public buildings in populated areas despite the pleading of locals to move them elsewhere to protect the children and families hiding in nearby basements and homes. 4. How many weapons the Chechens would capture undefended. 5. How accurate air strikes and artillery can be to continually take out Ukrainian military trucks and armor on busy highways with no/minimal collateral damage. 6. The speed at which Russian flags would be raised in cities with a new video coming out every few hours of flag raising in a new city. 7. The one sided nature of the reporting (should be expected really) that makes people think that Ukraine is doing well despite continual and steady gains over 3 days resulting in 1/4 of Ukraine already being occupied, an enormous swath of land larger than most European nations. 8. People thinking that wars only last a week and if it's not all over in a week then something went majorly wrong 😂
@@Mygg_Jeager by the way I have shared the telegram channel twice already where you can see the evidence that you are completely wrong. Not that you will put in the 2 seconds of effort to see the truth.
You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.
Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down
Finally, thank you. Even generals have a hard time when it comes to predict military conflicts, but apparently on RUclips everybody is a military genius smh
I don't see anyone giving binkov hard time. It's rather fascinating to observe the divergence as in most cases it just proves how insane some of the war developments have been
well that point still baffles military analysts. We know Russia sucks at training their pilots, but they still have somewhat modern planes in great numbers and supporting artillery (to take out anti-air sites). Looks like Russia was taken completely by surprise that they lost access to GPS, which eliminated their artillery- and missile accuracy. As a result, Ukraine anti-air sites are still standing and Russian can't send high-altitude planes into the warzones. At least that seems like the most prevalent explanation.
@@InTaco7 I also read somewhere that Russian military air doctrine doesn't really perform missions to destroy SAM sights like the U.S. does, for example the Wild Weasel Squadron. That with the Russian pilots apparently having very few flight hours and the shear difficultly in spotting and evading MANPADS makes it very hard to win air superiority. Not to say the their fleet isn't respectable I think that it is but many factor contribute to them not achieving the results they wanted. And without air cover tanks are just easy picking for drones, javelins, etc.
I just saw a while ago that Russia is collecting Javelins and Stingers from Ukraine bases, it goes both ways, Russia supplies Ukraine with weapons and NATO supplies Russia with weapons.
So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.
2 года назад+28
you'd need lots of people taking lsd for a long time to predicate the tractor fleet :D in fact the analysis is quite solid. often the map of russian progress corresponds to today's reality. and yeah: nobody expected such poor performance of the russian army and its command
@ Yeah, I think you're right. Who would have guessed that Russia under Putin would do so poorly at intelligence and operational security - and Binkov does have another video criticizing the Russian air force.
Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.
Im being to suspect that Comrade is a high ranking military officer specializing in the strategy analysis department. His videos are always spot on 😁😁😁
Opinion of a citizen of Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine must be and will be divided. And it was decided not by Russia, but by the United States. National Security Adviser to the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard that the West must wrest Ukraine from the orbit of Russian influence, if not completely, then at least its western part. He understood that the south and east of Ukraine were inhabited by Russian people. In 2014, the West managed to take control of Ukraine, losing only Crimea and part of the Donbass. But the last 8 years have shown that the West is not able to swallow the whole torn off piece. Therefore, they will be forced to withdraw from the east and south of Ukraine, leaving it to Russia. The Russian people are the most divided people in the world. Due to the fact that the Bolsheviks did not neatly divide the territory of the Russian Empire into Soviet republics, after the collapse of the USSR, millions of Russians found themselves outside their fatherland. In 1989 the German people were united. The Russian people also deserve to be reunited. 🇺🇦You should know that the West supports the unpopular, non-democratic, anti-people, oligarchic authorities in Ukraine, which uses the Nazis to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, and the war in Donbass to justify economic failures! The Ukrainian authorities talk about the occupation of Donbass by Russia only for the Western public , but here they openly say that it is impossible to return the Donbass. Because after the return of millions of pro-Russian citizens to the electoral field of Ukraine, they will immediately lose power.🇺🇦 🇷🇺Respectfully, a resident of Russian Kharkov.🇷🇺
@@chsgrate5362 It's not a lie, it's the truth. God knows it. I was born in Kharkov and have lived here all my life. I am not going to leave anywhere, and I did not have any other citizenship except the citizenship of Ukraine.
Maybe not full annexation but certainly negating the effects of the Dnieper as a defensive barrier. Means Russia can certainly achieve much more militarily in a much shorter time, no one seems to know how many Russians are stationed in Belarus either as of present or in a few weeks as they don’t seem to be included in the total Russian troop count on Ukraine border.
@Andy I suggest watching the latest video by Caspianreport RUclips channel, it’s highly informative about the prospects of war and Belarus’ potential involvement.
@Andy No, Belarus is actually quite likely to support Russia. The states it borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania do not have the forces to occupy it with Russian troops stationed there nor would they dare start a war with a Russian ally. The worst they would get is more sanctions.
@@byloyuripka9624 These things arent mutually exclusive. We're only spending 5% of our annual defense budget to demilitarize one of our biggest security threats.
Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.
Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a RUclipsr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.
This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao. This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.
Yea, Russia is strange country. Not so weak as many think, but also not so powerhouse as most think. In the end Russia fall to it's inability in fight in modern conflict (which should not suprise, consider how they well in Checenya two times and in Syria throw rockets at everything). Add gigantic corruption (same for Ukraine but much larger) and gigantic help from world to Ukraine and you get the result. Binkow made a scenario with information he had.
I hate to be boring but a 'Hot War' between any major superpowers can not happen due to the M.A.D doctrine. The only way it can possibly happen is if Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles can be shot down meaning a nuclear attack is unable to occur from both sides or by one side.
@@ChocManus That's a bit naive. Two nuclear powers could ofc have a conventional war, they just couldn't have a WW2 style unconditional surrender because noone with a big red button would take that.
I gave up on this guy when he covered what would happen in a U.S. v China war. He had the U.S. attempting a ground invasion and occupation of China. No competent strategist would even consider that. He also seems to put way to much emphasis on sheer numbers.
@@commonsense5494 Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.
Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect
Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.
@@lexingtonbrython1897 This is one video that explains it very well, but you can find more info on the internet if you search. Including the declaration from NATO that they will make the decision over night for their inclusion. ruclips.net/video/SWcJkVyJqIc/видео.html&ab_channel=CaspianReport
@@VolodyaMuchavsky That will only happen in Nuculair war, Blow this planet out the space for ever. its a sick planet build on war war war oil, dollars for ricth elites soros schawab, rockkefellers echt sic poepole, and a Sick Media virus is the propaganda cancer in this world.
My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.
@@zlo333 yeah, people have been like rhat for millenia. :( I am truly afraid. I have nwver experienced a war but all the previous generations in my family have lived through one and most even fought in them in e past 200 years. Terrible-terrible times.
@@the_real_lajos_toth i agree with u completly, war destroys people mentaly as well, ptsd for example and it is young people, and they are on the wining side, my granfathets fought in 2nd world war at least they knew what they were fighting for
In Islam empire the one who escaped from frighting for Islam will not be killed if the Islam soldier capture any the infidel troopers they will be treated with food and drink in jail and they have to teach the children how to write and read that was during prophet Muhammad era during ottoman I think they still do the same or maybe kill them
Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.
The catch is that China and Russia are not really all that friendly allies. Favors given by China aren't free... and China does claim a good chunk of East Russia. I think how much support China gives depends on how much Russia is willing to part with.
I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.
StarCraft taught that zerg rushing was effective. It did not teach those units needed to eat every 5 minutes and that the units bringing them food were extremely vulnerable.
You’re right. I’m not sure what they’re actually trying to accomplish. But in general they should have started by removing all the air defenses, followed by a couple of weeks of bombardment and bombings, and then the armored troops should have been sent in. They just sent out a bunch of tanks that are getting taken out left and right.
You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!
China & Russia are so closely linked at this point that I'm surprised Chinese troops haven't shown up in Ukraine.*sarcasm* It DOES appear however that Xi has become slightly more hesitant about trying to do a "lightning seizure" of Taiwan.
So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.
No. Previously Binkov had made predictions about a probable war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region . The war really occurred but Binkov's predictions did not come true at all. In contrary, they have made much more accurate predictions this time.
Accurate and credible as usual. Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected. 1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be. 2) air superiority was never really there 3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands. 4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media. All pessimistic points happened. 1) sanctions 2) internal russian dissent 3) huge losses in manpower and equipment 4) invasion bogged down AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic. Probably an update is due by now...
This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1. Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion. Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.
I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate. Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.
Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine was well prepared for a Russian invasion. But yet, Russia could have succeeded to take Kiev in the early days of war. Maybe Ukraine just survived because Elon Musk let them use skylink!!
If so much of the EU hadn't shut down their nuclear power plants after the Hokkaido earthquake and tsunami, Russia would have a lot less energy leverage over them...
@@BobuxGuy eco friendly? eco friendly?! what the hell do you mean "eco friendly"? Nuclear power isn't eco friendly at all. Have you seen Chernobyl? They need to dedicate so much space to storing spent fuel and equipment and that area's uninhabitable for millennia.
Binkov forgot to consider that Putin would be sending troops from Belarus to Kyiv, which is a much shorter journey than coming from the East from Russian territory. So instead of taking weeks to get to Kyiv, Russian forces right now are just 20 km from Kyiv and encircling the city.... *ONE DAY* after the invasion began.
@@leviticus2001 well, you know, after Kazakhstan events I think everyone can concider any ally of Russia as an area where plenty of troops and armor can simply appear within hours. Well, just like any major NATO force, except that they don't have to cross half the globe.
@@fuck4317 Alright the situation here is more complex than you imply. Those are forward units they're not the main army. The RUS army is getting beaten down by UKR. The Russians haven't capture any of their day one goals. UKR is holding strong
Though Russia seems to have done somewhat worse than predicted here. At least not that many Ukrainian troops seem to have been isolated into pockets and dealt with in piecemeal.
@@overclock1993 It's only one area. The graphics in this video seemed to indicate Ukrainian troops in the east getting isolated into many pockets. (Another factor not predicted in this video is Kyiv getting approached from Belarus on the western side of the Dnieper.)
@@christopheralejandromezapa8934 It takes weeks to besiege and take over cities. They have cut off multiple big ones at this point, Mariupol being the main one.
That is because the idea is totally naive and 100% contrast to what you see happening. After the war Ukraine will have the land that Putin does not demand handed over and a depleted army. It has been worn out over 4 months now and there will be no replacements coming and there is no time to train any or heavy weapons for them even if they could.. Russia advanced using only a fraction of its army when the Ukranian army was intact and receiving aid. So Russia will advance even faster the more worn out and weak the ukranian army without question will become.
For being speculative, this is really accurate. Lot of people saying this didn't age well, but so much of it has come to fruition? No one counted on the Russians performing so poorly, or Belarusia's compliance in the invasion. I don't follow this channel, but yer man called the poor performance of the Russian airforce in a video older than this.
It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.
I just pictured a small section of the video saying "Ukrainians could start using their overwhelming farming equipment capabilities to tow away Russian tanks"
What a tough video binkov has had to make, he has done a miracle and come across pretty neutral and informative, and indeed you can hear in his voice just how horrible all this is
To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.
This situation is much more complicated than most videos ever get into. It is a protracted tragedy that has many nuances. I've followed it for 8 years and my heart bleeds for those who live there. I wish there was more I could do.
Binkov, don't forget that there's a large amount of Russian troops now in Belarus on 'exercises', and that the Belarusian/Ukrainian border isn't as well fortified as the Donbas frontlines, and it's a much shorter distance to Kyiv.
Take a few satellite photos of Russian tanks, announce that Russia is invading and here we go. Half the world now believes that Russia is going to invade its neighbours. And even if they don't attack (which they wouldn't) it will be seen as the invasion was cancelled all thanks to our hero NATO. A win win propaganda. Currently the biggest weapon of the West. Very clever and effective.
@@natureblank1401 Did I say that? I just stated that they're there, and that they're doing 'exercises' near the border. I'm sure you can take from that whatever you want. Give my regards to Moscow.
Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...
@CR Hill i might partly agree with you. But sometimes i wonder things have gone too far for russia. Even if russia wins what would russia do with a ukraine sunk in anger and anti russia feelings? Economically speaking how would russia carry the burden of its actions and its reputation around the world? I think that a victory would be even worse to russia than an agreement with ukraine. Because in case of agreement russia would get rid of a big problem (ukraine itself)...
To be fair Russia is advancing rather quickly and has already captured the airport. The faster Russia advances the faster Ukraine surrenders and the faster all the other countries can stop pretending to care. Therefore less casualties. Win win.
Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.
So many people saying this aged like milk when we are only 2 days in and lots of the things he mentioned was accurate. Predicting stuff like this with 100% procession is impossible. There are so many factors at play. A variation in just one of them can completely change events that would follow.
I love the implicit argument in this comments section. Was Binkov accurate? Mostly, yeah, just overestimated the Russian military and not by as much as some are saying. Don't listen to them, Binkov, you did great.
how ridiculous that one of the historical documents studied by future historians to know what were we thinking befote the conflict, will have raid shadow legends ad XD
A lot of this is spot on. But not the air combat component. Russia has not committed 1,000 aircraft to the operation. The Ukrainian air force seems to be doing much better than a "token." And Russia has not yet achieved air supremacy. Ukraine claims two IL-76 transports shot down in the last 24 hours and 14 aircraft destroyed overall.
I don't understand why people are saying that this video vastly overestimates Russian performance. By his own words, conquering the East half of Ukraine would take months -- perhaps until the winter. It's been less than one month since Russia's invasion began! Look at the map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Right, but from the looks of things Russia isn't going to achieve that. They don't have the manpower, even if they bring in reinforcements. Could even see some catastrophic defeats on some of their axis.
It's probably because in the video the surprise attack worked much better than it did. I presume the lack of logistics took everyone by surprise, Russians included.
@@tigoes I've hardly seen any media claiming that Ukraine is winning. Sure, many of them are very optimistic about Ukraine's chances at holding Russia back, but it's quite unquestionable that Russia is taking massive losses right now. Progressing, but at what cost? If they can't get their allies and puppets to bail them out, the attack is going to stagnate entirely and possibly collapse.
@@tigoes "Progressing" What is progress on the ground, why does that necessarily indicate they are going to win. These two things are not the same. Plus progressing could just extend their logistics, which are bad as is, making them hard to defend and thus leaving the Russian combat arms exposed at the front to a counter attack... You know like we are seeing in Mykolaiv and NE and NW of Kyiv.
I disagree with people saying he is very wrong. This is the most educated guess one could have. The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.) It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.
Strange, everyone saying he is wrong in his prediction seemed not to listen well to his timeline. He is talking about weeks to months of war before Russia would capture Ukraine. Other things he got wrong, but the timeline seems about right, as well as the casualty numbers. Russia having perhaps tens of thousands of casualties over the course of the war. He also accurately predicted US and NATO sanctions, even if he predicted a longer lag time for them. Certainly, it seems to have been a much more fair fight than expected, but if Russia is planning on a timeline of months and massive casualties, then, this actually scans pretty well with what we're seeing, at least in terms of those measurables.
Even if they do defeat ukraine this has been a complete disaster for Russia and has shown their military to be alot weaker than we thought. There is no way anyone can look at this unbiased and say this war went great for Russia
How the F can some of the ppl say this aged like milk? This video is incredible for a prediction and many differences are due to NATO giving more military assistance much earlier and oil sanctions etc coming to russia much harder etc. The way he drew almost the map that we have right now for what russia would have to settle with due to manpower limits is toooo accurate.
@@schakiarligonde1736before the war started everyone thought the entirety of ukraine would fall fast to the russians, this was honestly a pretty good prediction for the time
Yes because they are hiding in houses behind civilians. Propaganda bot get ready, Mariupol is almost fully captured so is Donbas region and they will surround Karkhiv. They don't want Kiev no, they want all the black sea region and if you see the news that goes as planned. Also the ones fighting in the ground is not the actual Russian army but Russian speakers of Ukraine the Russian army is fighting in the air, ALSO Ukraine army has lost all its air-force and navy to the Russians, and their only hope is hiding in buildings.
@@josephstalin331 Stop Lying Comrade Stalin. Remember when you said this???My Georgian friend. "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war." -Joseph Stalin Nikita Khrushchev shared the similar opinion in his memoirs: "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war, One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
Not a bad Blinkov prediction so far. He didn't see the attack going partially through Belarus. Also said it would be unlikely for Russia to try to take Kiev. That seemed to be one of the goals from day 1.
IDK, Binkov's prediction on Kiev seem mixed. He said Kiev might not be occupied due to the river crossing required, but would still be a major target (presumably he means for missile/air strikes). So he wasn't far off, if he had factored in Belarus, then Kiev wouldn't just be a target but something that Russia would actually try to occupy.
Tanks seem basically obsolete when the Nlaws and Javelins exist. Don't blame Binkov for not getting this exactly right. This is the first time we've seen modern armed forces fight in quite a long time.
Part of the issue that is hard to give character to is that the armored forces are being screened with conscripts, and infantry who are basically lost. They're talking about not even knowing they were invading Ukraine until they where in it. Tanks are effective but they've never ever been invulnerable to AT weapons and from the first ever use of them, they were still knocked out. In this situation, the tanks are being used in vanguards without effective recon screens and infantry support that should've reduced the risk of this.
You have to be taking the piss right? You've seen 10-15 destroyed armor pieces from Ukraine who are posting any and every victory online and you think tanks are obsolete 😂 Would 1/4 of the massive country be lost in 3 days on foot?
this aged well lol, this is during the time we thought russia can defeat kiev in just 48-120 hours. but now, its almost like 4 or 5 months and the only major russian victory we have seen is mariupol, and no more frontline exists in kiev anymore
It was hardly even a victory. They wasted multiple brigades just shelling the city for 3 months straight. In return they lost tens of thousands of artillery shells, a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers, and a bunch of rubble where the city once stood
In particular, it must be taken into account that this prediction was made at a time when everyone else was saying "3 days and Kiev will be Russian". At the time, this was an incredibly "optimistic" to "idealistic" view that went against all military experts, intelligence agencies, etc.
This is basically what every intelligence agency predicted as well. We wayyyy over estimated Russia’s military competence and capabilities. This should have been over in a week.
This video indeed aged well. I remember watching this when it first came out. And it was the only video that (1) didn't say Russia would win, (2) Russia would win very quickly. Remember, back then everyone thought it would be over fast with a Russian victory.
I remember when Russia drop paratrooper near Kiev and people were trolling Binkov saying the was about to end after like a week but none of them understood that the Russia army was still near the border.
Russia didn't open as strong as it could have because it underestimated Ukraine resilience. They could have thrown way more but didn't. Not to mention they had the column heading towards Kiev and turned it around after the Ukrainians said they were ready for peace talks. But we all know Ukraine had no such intentions.
Having videos like this makes me wonder what future historians would think. If RUclips is around long enough for this video to be viewed by future historians I’d be shocked- but could you imagine them finding this archive of events happening during these times, but they’d have to watch a Raid: Shadow Legends ad first?
Let us not forget that there's only one thing for certain for Modern Warfare; it's completely unpredictable. Take the Second Nagaro Karabakh War for example; at the start, many assumed that war would go on for at least a year and have the same level of devastation as the first War. But instead, it was so quick and decisive for the Azeris that not even the most pro-Azeri sources thought the victory would be so easy for them, because pretty much all military strategists underestimated the potential effectiveness of UAVs. And in comparison to the first one, Second Nagaro Karabakh War ended in little over a month and resulted in 8,000~ dead, while the First War lasted for 6 years and tens of thousands of dead. There are definitely factors in Ukraine that we are all might be overlooking. So who knows, maybe this whole invasion will be much more easier or harder for the Russia. Edit: You know how this ended
@@deanboy2416 I'd argue the opposite tbh. Mobilization might be bit faster and more people could enlist in literal defence of their homes. Idk, wars are unpredictable, rarely go as planned on paper.
@@kalactose348 Doubtful, recently polls suggest much higher support for insurgency and resistance against Russia especially around Kyiv. Some 60 percent said they would be willing to take up arms against Russia, and that was a poll across the whole country. Russia doesn't have the financial and political power to hold onto the pro-west regions of Ukraine. And the battle for Kyiv would be a bloodbath on a scale we haven't seen since the cold war, no one would win.
@@hatman3445 The russians wouldnt be coming to burn down the home though. And most people in the ukraine dont hold their politicians too highly. In fact, some polls indicate they trust Putin more than their own leaders... So I dont think that most of them would view the situation as you described.
In retrospect, the analysis has fairly stood the test of time. Its biggest mistake was in failing to anticipate how irrationally Russia would behave. If I put the military experts' analysis of the time side by side, this is one of the best predictions (at least from what I've read/heard - of course I'm far from having read everything). Binkov correctly points out that an attack on Kiev is unlikely - Russia doesn't have enough troops. Well, Russia did attack - and it ended in a bloodbath. The part about the importance of NATO-Ukraine information sharing was also very apt. The estimate that the war would end in the winter was entirely correct - provided that Putin thinks about the future of his nation. No one could have expected Putin to sacrifice tens of thousands of reservists just to buy time. Nor did Binkov estimate that Russia would stoop so low as to target Ukraine's infrastructure in an attempt to terrorize civilians in an effort to trigger a migrant crisis. Still, it's a lesson: I remember seeing this video before the war broke out and thinking: "it's clear, there will be no war. If there is, Putin will just occupy the Donbas." And while I was smiling smugly at the simplicity of the whole situation, I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack. So next time: rationality is a fine thing. It's just that even the best analysis can run into your opponent behaving completely irrationally. And even the most straightforward situation can turn out completely unexpectedly. For example, by losing several thousand euros because Putin didn't even get information from his intelligence services that was freely available on youtube. --- Note - the money I lost doesn't bother me. I already sent a bunch of money to the Ukrainian army. Now I only care about one thing: I want to see Putin and all those Russian nationalists suffer for what they have done. I will never forgive Russia - and neither should you.
@@opex9979 Interesting how that point of view can vary. You mean that more as an insult, don't you? Yet we in the West see courage, tenacity and other positive qualities in Ukraine. While in the west we have lost touch with reality, no one wants to die for "the homeland" - why should they, when freedom and wealth seem to be a given here. The Ukrainians, by contrast, have confronted an enemy many times stronger, refused to compromise, and in a situation where our analysts gave Kiev 3 days, they brought the Russian army to its knees. Of course, I know that Ukraine is not perfect - but nobody is. If any nation can be looked up to and admired now, it is your "xoxol". They made us understand how naive we were towards Russia and that while we assumed that Russia needed to be negotiated with and compromised with, Ukrainians saw through this game and nipped Russian imperialism in the bud. I know that it is not yet won - maybe one day Russia will manage to get that Bakhmut, maybe Ukraine will not be able to liberate some territories after all, but it does not change the fact that Russia has lost. Morally, politically and militarily. And it didn't take a mighty NATO, the US and WWIII to do it. All it took was one nation that refused to compromise with evil.
There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.
7:56
Since it seems everyone thought Putin could be bluffing and with Europe as hesitant as it is, it seems he felt an all or nothing approach was worth it
A video about a Russia determined and ready to devote the necessary resources to take as much as it can might as well be only a few seconds
Russia dominates, no contest
I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine and he won't get that quickly as already said in the video
@@joseSanchez-ej2oh Russia dominates in the graveyards, and nowhere else lol.
@@GespenstDesKommunismus _"I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine"_
Given the sizes of the Russian invading forces and the directions in which they've advanced, I don't think Putini ever planned to _forcibly_ occupy the whole country.
Instead, his *military* objective was to occupy the southern coast, taking control of the ports and access to the Black Sea, thereby making a land bridge connecting Crimea and the Donbas.
He's successfully achieved his military objective.
His *political* objective was to overthrow the government in Kyiv, in the hope that this would end Ukrainian resistance.
Kyiv still hasn't fallen and Ukrainians continue to resist, so he's failed to achieve his political objective, as yet.
@@GonzoTehGreat Not quite, he planned to quickly take Kiev to insert a new gouvernment by force and then put the entire Ukraine under the control of his puppet gouvernment using the military. That's essentially an occupation of the whole country
Binkov's knowledge is finally being put to the test.
wanna bet 10 bucks on it?? ill give you my paypal 😂
@@billsima6983 What’s the options? Over/under?
I'm watching this to see how accurate this video is.
@@drsev61 eyyyyy me too :D
Binkov videos are never going to be fully accurate because of how they purposefully ignore 3rd parties to the conflicts. Stuff like global sanctions and invading through Belarus aren't accounted for.
A guy on RUclips narrating his videos with a literal hand puppet put everyone else's predictions to shame. I love it!
Sadly history repeats itself his analysis was excellent and detailed but I'm an idiot and a lot of this seemed obvious to me before the war however I'm glad I was wrong overall I said Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia it can put up a hell of a fight and give the russian army a bloody nose but Russia will quickly destroy most of there combat units and destroy most of the countrys CCC in a week lol
One mistake was made here, assumption that Russian military is actually modern and not stuck in Soviet era.
Ukraine's air defenses were also better than "obsolete."
Your russian modern weapon plus hungry russian soldier and limited gas. Like how the fuck it would last?
Yes
Soviet weapons? At least those weapons were new in Soviet times. Now be they are supporting defective Chinese tires.
The Russian armed forces are large and modern.
But the modern part ain't large.
And the large part ain't modern.
What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.
>Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO/
Or it would result in the states bordering Russia to balance Russian interests with NATO. Thus resetting the European balance of power.
>and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country.
So cancel America's pivot to Asia? Considering China's maritime trajectory that isn't happening.
> it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives.
Remains to be seen, we could also see tens of thousands of Ukrainians surrender in the first week. But i don't have a crystal ball.....
@E Cognitio Balancing Russian interests? Russia isn't the only country in the region, most countries that exist in Europe exist because they value their sovereignty, not because they want to cater to the whims of Russians. That why they join NATO, to protect their interests, instead of that of Russia.
@@onlyplaysveigar7241 That wasn't true during the cold war, research "Finlandization" in which the country chose to stay neutral in the confrontation.
Why would sweden join NATO? I understand Finland joining even if that is also not likely at all as Russia has no intention of expanding into Finland and bordering Sweden. Sweden is a relatively strong country, Russia wouldnt gain anything from threatning Sweden, plus they dont even border Russia.
@E Cognitio I know about Finlandization but it has no relevance to contemporary politics, since Russia is acting unilaterally.
A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly.
Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response.
Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.
It has aged exactly.
Because they failed in history class
This is truth
Did Ukraine exceed expectations or did the Russians simply fail to meet theirs? Might be both. So wouldn't praise or blame anyone yet.
dunno man the wars not ended, and the recent ukraine counter offensive failed
Binkov - “mostly likely won’t attack”
Putin - “hold my beer”
This didnt age well…
To be fair who tf thought he was going to attack
@@theinfinity2988 the writing was on the wall bruh
Putin was most likely trying to bluff the NATO into giving concessions. That failed and now they're invading to most likely to save face - Just a prediction
@@Link9058 says who
Not even the people of ukraine thought he was going to attack
You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.
I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.
75% ain't bad at all.
Your not wrong. It's just how maybe 🤔 right you are.
Well. Now they retreat from Kyiv.
In war unexpected things happens, not everything would follow the plan.
You didn't account for Germany sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine.
THIS. CHANGES. EVERYTHING.
Lol I see what you did there
Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!
Not our war, keep crying
@@frankmueller6522 Pls don't say that, America has enough influence on the world. They are massive bullies who just abuse power where they see fit. Look at the atrocities in Isreal and Palestine, Israel forcefully taking land and attacking and bombing civilians? And America supports those actions and turns a blind eye towards it, then calls Palestine aggressors if they fight for defending their own land?
Amazing sarcasm 🤣🤣
The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.
1. The effectiveness of initial strike on eliminating Ukrainian airforce. One single bomb on an airstrip in a video I saw took out 6 migs.
2. How quickly such a small force would subdue millions of residents in the most densely populated eastern side of the country.
3. How Ukrainians would park equipment at schools, residential blocks and other public buildings in populated areas despite the pleading of locals to move them elsewhere to protect the children and families hiding in nearby basements and homes.
4. How many weapons the Chechens would capture undefended.
5. How accurate air strikes and artillery can be to continually take out Ukrainian military trucks and armor on busy highways with no/minimal collateral damage.
6. The speed at which Russian flags would be raised in cities with a new video coming out every few hours of flag raising in a new city.
7. The one sided nature of the reporting (should be expected really) that makes people think that Ukraine is doing well despite continual and steady gains over 3 days resulting in 1/4 of Ukraine already being occupied, an enormous swath of land larger than most European nations.
8. People thinking that wars only last a week and if it's not all over in a week then something went majorly wrong 😂
@@chomes8048 Whatever pitiful sum Putin's paying you to spew that drivel, he's not getting his money's worth.
@@brucetucker4847 True, nobody is buying that nonsense.
@@chomes8048 Silence, bot. Russia is targeting civilians, Ukrainian forces are not hiding among civilians.
@@Mygg_Jeager by the way I have shared the telegram channel twice already where you can see the evidence that you are completely wrong. Not that you will put in the 2 seconds of effort to see the truth.
You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.
you forgot the incompetence of the Russian officer corp
Also Russia got a lot less territory in reality
It’s because it’s not true
Russians did not expect organized resistance, and thus didn’t plan like a real war
@@schakiarligonde1736 they took 25% of the country in one week (excluding Crimea and 2014 occupied territories)
Now it’s only like 17% after Ukraine retook Kherson and kharkiv
Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down
Finally, thank you. Even generals have a hard time when it comes to predict military conflicts, but apparently on RUclips everybody is a military genius smh
I mean it is evident that the Russian generals did get their initial plan wrong as well so....
@Xaer Hanler this video was made before the Russian troops entered Belarus, so it wasn't so easy to predict their involvement.
😂😂😂WTA?
I don't see anyone giving binkov hard time. It's rather fascinating to observe the divergence as in most cases it just proves how insane some of the war developments have been
The part that got me was “Russia would enjoy air superiority” This makes me feel better for all my past mistakes
well that point still baffles military analysts. We know Russia sucks at training their pilots, but they still have somewhat modern planes in great numbers and supporting artillery (to take out anti-air sites). Looks like Russia was taken completely by surprise that they lost access to GPS, which eliminated their artillery- and missile accuracy. As a result, Ukraine anti-air sites are still standing and Russian can't send high-altitude planes into the warzones. At least that seems like the most prevalent explanation.
@@InTaco7 I also read somewhere that Russian military air doctrine doesn't really perform missions to destroy SAM sights like the U.S. does, for example the Wild Weasel Squadron. That with the Russian pilots apparently having very few flight hours and the shear difficultly in spotting and evading MANPADS makes it very hard to win air superiority. Not to say the their fleet isn't respectable I think that it is but many factor contribute to them not achieving the results they wanted. And without air cover tanks are just easy picking for drones, javelins, etc.
They pretty much own the air ways. They don't have air supremacy but they certainly dominate.
@@beardedaus1051 any reason they decided not to take out all the anti air?
One thing that Blinkov couldn't know is that the Russian army would become a major source of equipment for Ukraine.
Ukraine and NATO are suppliers of pro-Russian forces too. And it is debatalbe wo gets more
I just saw a while ago that Russia is collecting Javelins and Stingers from Ukraine bases, it goes both ways, Russia supplies Ukraine with weapons and NATO supplies Russia with weapons.
@@budgetproductions1178 Yep, and the Ukrainians won't be volunteering that information.
@@budgetproductions1178 Most NATO supplies will end up with Ukrainians, those depots were likely captured in the first few days around Kherson.
So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.
you'd need lots of people taking lsd for a long time to predicate the tractor fleet :D in fact the analysis is quite solid. often the map of russian progress corresponds to today's reality. and yeah: nobody expected such poor performance of the russian army and its command
@ Yeah, I think you're right. Who would have guessed that Russia under Putin would do so poorly at intelligence and operational security - and Binkov does have another video criticizing the Russian air force.
Tractors are the apex predator on the battlefield.
What do those farmers do w those tanks once they have towed them home? Did the Russians install lowjack on them?
@@paulbabcock2428
Sell em on eBay :)
i knew WW3 wouldn’t start without a RAID SHADOW LEGEND sponsorship.
Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.
Indeed
Im being to suspect that Comrade is a high ranking military officer specializing in the strategy analysis department. His videos are always spot on 😁😁😁
Opinion of a citizen of Ukraine.
🇺🇦🇷🇺
Ukraine must be and will be divided. And it was decided not by Russia, but by the United States. National Security Adviser to the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard that the West must wrest Ukraine from the orbit of Russian influence, if not completely, then at least its western part. He understood that the south and east of Ukraine were inhabited by Russian people. In 2014, the West managed to take control of Ukraine, losing only Crimea and part of the Donbass. But the last 8 years have shown that the West is not able to swallow the whole torn off piece. Therefore, they will be forced to withdraw from the east and south of Ukraine, leaving it to Russia.
The Russian people are the most divided people in the world. Due to the fact that the Bolsheviks did not neatly divide the territory of the Russian Empire into Soviet republics, after the collapse of the USSR, millions of Russians found themselves outside their fatherland. In 1989 the German people were united. The Russian people also deserve to be reunited.
🇺🇦You should know that the West supports the unpopular, non-democratic, anti-people, oligarchic authorities in Ukraine, which uses the Nazis to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, and the war in Donbass to justify economic failures! The Ukrainian authorities talk about the occupation of Donbass by Russia only for the Western public , but here they openly say that it is impossible to return the Donbass. Because after the return of millions of pro-Russian citizens to the electoral field of Ukraine, they will immediately lose power.🇺🇦
🇷🇺Respectfully, a resident of Russian Kharkov.🇷🇺
@@ТриединаяРусь You are not a citizen of Ukraine,hush
@@chsgrate5362 It's not a lie, it's the truth. God knows it. I was born in Kharkov and have lived here all my life. I am not going to leave anywhere, and I did not have any other citizenship except the citizenship of Ukraine.
You did not mention that use of Belarus territory is possible, destroying ukranian north flang and opening rout to full annexation
Maybe not full annexation but certainly negating the effects of the Dnieper as a defensive barrier. Means Russia can certainly achieve much more militarily in a much shorter time, no one seems to know how many Russians are stationed in Belarus either as of present or in a few weeks as they don’t seem to be included in the total Russian troop count on Ukraine border.
Damn right!
God bless President Lukashenko. May God give many more Prosperous Years! Da!
@Andy I suggest watching the latest video by Caspianreport RUclips channel, it’s highly informative about the prospects of war and Belarus’ potential involvement.
@Andy No, Belarus is actually quite likely to support Russia. The states it borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania do not have the forces to occupy it with Russian troops stationed there nor would they dare start a war with a Russian ally. The worst they would get is more sanctions.
"a few hundred javelins wont make a difference"...
2 months later... "20 anti tank missiles for every tank in Russia"
*i like those odds*
who needs affordable healthcare or education anyways amiright fellas??
@@byloyuripka9624 Hard to get affordable healthcare and education when they bomb those places lol
@@byloyuripka9624 These things arent mutually exclusive. We're only spending 5% of our annual defense budget to demilitarize one of our biggest security threats.
News just in America runs out of javelins will take years to re stock!!!!
Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.
Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a RUclipsr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.
This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao.
This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.
It's not disfunction or corruption. Russia thought it would be like Austra in 1930s and fold nonviolently
Yea, Russia is strange country. Not so weak as many think, but also not so powerhouse as most think. In the end Russia fall to it's inability in fight in modern conflict (which should not suprise, consider how they well in Checenya two times and in Syria throw rockets at everything). Add gigantic corruption (same for Ukraine but much larger) and gigantic help from world to Ukraine and you get the result.
Binkow made a scenario with information he had.
Okay. I am impressed. Not perfect, but better predictions than any “news” organizations. Excellent work.
This seems like potentially the most pointless conflict yet. If this causes WW3 I'll be pissed 😅
I hate to be boring but a 'Hot War' between any major superpowers can not happen due to the M.A.D doctrine.
The only way it can possibly happen is if Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles can be shot down meaning a nuclear attack is unable to occur from both sides or by one side.
@@ChocManus That's a bit naive. Two nuclear powers could ofc have a conventional war, they just couldn't have a WW2 style unconditional surrender because noone with a big red button would take that.
@@towakin7718 I’d be starting a war that can only end one way
@@offdeck8588 If you'd start a war that can only end one way it's a good thing you've got nothing to say!
WWI was started by a political assassination. You never know.
Putin also has troops on the Ukraine-Belarus border right? That would change the invasion outlay a bit. Kiev could be isolated fairly easily
But involving them would be risky. Especially as it would be war of theft, not of defense.
Damn right!
"the Russia is way more well equiped and knows how to use that equipment"
💀💀💀
I was about to say that statement aged like milk.
I gave up on this guy when he covered what would happen in a U.S. v China war. He had the U.S. attempting a ground invasion and occupation of China. No competent strategist would even consider that. He also seems to put way to much emphasis on sheer numbers.
@@commonsense5494 Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.
1/5 of Ukraine territory under Russian control, Ukrainian navy crippled, nearly all fuel supply destroyed, crippled Ukrainian air force.
@@revolter7094 you watch too much propaganda
Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect
Well ...lot of people count on the EU being divided, but if it is not it has pretty much the economic power of a superpower.
Yes, based on open source intel, his assessment was pretty good. One may say even better than the Kremlin's.
Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.
Wait, really? Do you have a link? :O
@@lexingtonbrython1897 This is one video that explains it very well, but you can find more info on the internet if you search. Including the declaration from NATO that they will make the decision over night for their inclusion. ruclips.net/video/SWcJkVyJqIc/видео.html&ab_channel=CaspianReport
@@simplepixel5617 some people are too lazy to do their own research, they often ask do you have a link lol
@@VolodyaMuchavsky That will only happen in Nuculair war, Blow this planet out the space for ever. its a sick planet build on war war war oil, dollars for ricth elites soros schawab, rockkefellers echt sic poepole, and a Sick Media virus is the propaganda cancer in this world.
@@VolodyaMuchavsky it's funny that you assume it won't be the other way around. Invade a NATO member and eat a nuke for breakfast.
My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.
Unfortunately not many people will listen to you
@@zlo333 yeah, people have been like rhat for millenia. :( I am truly afraid. I have nwver experienced a war but all the previous generations in my family have lived through one and most even fought in them in e past 200 years. Terrible-terrible times.
@@the_real_lajos_toth i agree with u completly, war destroys people mentaly as well, ptsd for example and it is young people, and they are on the wining side, my granfathets fought in 2nd world war at least they knew what they were fighting for
In Islam empire the one who escaped from frighting for Islam will not be killed if the Islam soldier capture any the infidel troopers they will be treated with food and drink in jail and they have to teach the children how to write and read that was during prophet Muhammad era during ottoman I think they still do the same or maybe kill them
You are right. But what can we do when the circles have one button mass destruction options?
Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.
The catch is that China and Russia are not really all that friendly allies. Favors given by China aren't free... and China does claim a good chunk of East Russia. I think how much support China gives depends on how much Russia is willing to part with.
I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.
Who's watching in March to see how accurate this was?
Я смотрю
Sadly
Is it just me or is the Russian strategy proposed in this video more reasonable than what they are actually doing at the moment?
Indeed...
StarCraft taught that zerg rushing was effective. It did not teach those units needed to eat every 5 minutes and that the units bringing them food were extremely vulnerable.
You’re right. I’m not sure what they’re actually trying to accomplish. But in general they should have started by removing all the air defenses, followed by a couple of weeks of bombardment and bombings, and then the armored troops should have been sent in. They just sent out a bunch of tanks that are getting taken out left and right.
@@hashtagunderscore3173 aparently they didnt have the resources to do that, on top of believing that they war would be over in a day or two
@@hashtagunderscore3173 apparently they didn’t know where those air defenses are; just emblematic of further problems in the Russian military
We overestimated Russia, underestimated Ukraine and how fast the EU would react as a whole.
EU is nothing but a joke
@@DreadRising use your brain dude
This whole Invasion made the EU act as a single entity for once
@@DreadRising lol ok vatnik
@@DreadRising well, this aged well
You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!
China & Russia are so closely linked at this point that I'm surprised Chinese troops haven't shown up in Ukraine.*sarcasm* It DOES appear however that Xi has become slightly more hesitant about trying to do a "lightning seizure" of Taiwan.
So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.
lmao what are you smoking. They are inside kiev already. it's over this weekend
Bruv lmao
@@DarkAlan2 russian fake news got to you dude. They are close to Kiev but won it yet
WW3 is gonns start soon
@@misterxxxxxxxxx1 nah
Well this is unfortunately the first time we will actually see a practical test on whether the hypothetical scenario is accurate
Sadly true
No. Previously Binkov had made predictions about a probable war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region . The war really occurred but Binkov's predictions did not come true at all. In contrary, they have made much more accurate predictions this time.
we can see how well your battle predictions are for the first time.
Accurate and credible as usual.
Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected.
1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be.
2) air superiority was never really there
3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands.
4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media.
All pessimistic points happened.
1) sanctions
2) internal russian dissent
3) huge losses in manpower and equipment
4) invasion bogged down
AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic.
Probably an update is due by now...
If he updates and speaks the truth, he ends up in gulag and drinks radioactive tea
So what Binkov's got wrong is that he didn't foresee the invasion route from Belarus. Otherwise pretty impressively accurate.
This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1.
Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion.
Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.
I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate.
Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.
Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine was well prepared for a Russian invasion. But yet, Russia could have succeeded to take Kiev in the early days of war. Maybe Ukraine just survived because Elon Musk let them use skylink!!
24 hours into the actual invasion, and your analysis checks out so far.
yes
Hahaha checks out for Russian bs propaganda
Its really sad when a guy using a sock puppet has more foresight than most politicians....
If so much of the EU hadn't shut down their nuclear power plants after the Hokkaido earthquake and tsunami, Russia would have a lot less energy leverage over them...
The germans shut down their plants. Everyone else has been building new ones
We need to reintroduce Nuclear Plants, they are the most eco-friendly of all the alternatives.
@@BobuxGuy facts
@@BobuxGuy eco friendly? eco friendly?! what the hell do you mean "eco friendly"? Nuclear power isn't eco friendly at all. Have you seen Chernobyl? They need to dedicate so much space to storing spent fuel and equipment and that area's uninhabitable for millennia.
Chernobyl would never happen to a decent nuklear plant unless ofcause when its build at an earthquake and tsunami devastated place.
Russian side have heavy armaments and knows how to use them.
Sorry binkov but it appears they don't.
There's that.
They do know how to level a city from afar using artillery and missiles.
@@camelcase811 they didnt do it enmass because they care about civilians.
Binkov forgot to consider that Putin would be sending troops from Belarus to Kyiv, which is a much shorter journey than coming from the East from Russian territory. So instead of taking weeks to get to Kyiv, Russian forces right now are just 20 km from Kyiv and encircling the city.... *ONE DAY* after the invasion began.
That's what you get from taking military advice from a talking puppet.
There were no troops in Belarus when he made this.
Now they are in the Kiev i think. Or they will be in the next few hours
@@leviticus2001 well, you know, after Kazakhstan events I think everyone can concider any ally of Russia as an area where plenty of troops and armor can simply appear within hours. Well, just like any major NATO force, except that they don't have to cross half the globe.
@@fuck4317 Alright the situation here is more complex than you imply. Those are forward units they're not the main army. The RUS army is getting beaten down by UKR. The Russians haven't capture any of their day one goals. UKR is holding strong
Well from diplomatic stand, he predicted everything correctly
Except for the fact that Belarus wasn't calculated into this, this was highly accurate,
Though Russia seems to have done somewhat worse than predicted here. At least not that many Ukrainian troops seem to have been isolated into pockets and dealt with in piecemeal.
only one major citie as TODAY 02/03/2022
@@seneca983 How bad? Kiev is already under siege after day 3.
@@overclock1993 It's only one area. The graphics in this video seemed to indicate Ukrainian troops in the east getting isolated into many pockets.
(Another factor not predicted in this video is Kyiv getting approached from Belarus on the western side of the Dnieper.)
@@christopheralejandromezapa8934 It takes weeks to besiege and take over cities. They have cut off multiple big ones at this point, Mariupol being the main one.
What nobody predicted is that Ukraine will end up with more equipment after the war than before
Ukraine even have some weapons now they never had. Russians gave it.
That is because the idea is totally naive and 100% contrast to what you see happening. After the war Ukraine will have the land that Putin does not demand handed over and a depleted army. It has been worn out over 4 months now and there will be no replacements coming and there is no time to train any or heavy weapons for them even if they could.. Russia advanced using only a fraction of its army when the Ukranian army was intact and receiving aid. So Russia will advance even faster the more worn out and weak the ukranian army without question will become.
For being speculative, this is really accurate. Lot of people saying this didn't age well, but so much of it has come to fruition? No one counted on the Russians performing so poorly, or Belarusia's compliance in the invasion. I don't follow this channel, but yer man called the poor performance of the Russian airforce in a video older than this.
That's not exactly nostradamus is it? Their pilots fly for about 50hrs a year.
Everyone's just coming back to this video now lol
Yep I pray it is correct in the assessment that some of ukraine will stay out of russian control
Yep
Well, it’s not an “if” anymore…
It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.
Am I the only one watching this video again to compare with what is happening irl?
Nope.
Forgot to account for the legendary Ukrainian Tractor Battalions. 🚜🚜🚜🚜
Found 1 guy selling an AFV in Ukraine on eBay
LOL Underrated comment :)
I just pictured a small section of the video saying "Ukrainians could start using their overwhelming farming equipment capabilities to tow away Russian tanks"
What a tough video binkov has had to make, he has done a miracle and come across pretty neutral and informative, and indeed you can hear in his voice just how horrible all this is
Why? Is Binkov Ukrainian?
@@mostlymessingabout yes , is an ex KGB Ukranian Soviet general .he lives in poland.
@@mostlymessingabout Are you for real? Were you born without a heart? Are you a T-1000 from the future?
@@ragnorak2237 YT says his channel is registered in Croatia, and he doesn't have that much of a slavic accent
@@Arturino_Burachelini thanks. I never knew. I did look. Where do you see Croatia? Oddly i saw two linked channels, one of which is the German guy 😃
To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.
This aged like fine wine
Nice name to trick people
This situation is much more complicated than most videos ever get into. It is a protracted tragedy that has many nuances. I've followed it for 8 years and my heart bleeds for those who live there. I wish there was more I could do.
Binkov, don't forget that there's a large amount of Russian troops now in Belarus on 'exercises', and that the Belarusian/Ukrainian border isn't as well fortified as the Donbas frontlines, and it's a much shorter distance to Kyiv.
Oh, so Russians are going to be invading from Belarus concurrently? Sure, and who told you that? BBC?
Take a few satellite photos of Russian tanks, announce that Russia is invading and here we go. Half the world now believes that Russia is going to invade its neighbours. And even if they don't attack (which they wouldn't) it will be seen as the invasion was cancelled all thanks to our hero NATO. A win win propaganda. Currently the biggest weapon of the West. Very clever and effective.
@@natureblank1401 Did I say that? I just stated that they're there, and that they're doing 'exercises' near the border. I'm sure you can take from that whatever you want. Give my regards to Moscow.
@@natureblank1401 nothing wrong with that really
@@bladedninja8853 On political stage maybe not, however it's still propaganda. We need more people to be aware
Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...
Really? Pinballman1
It is amazing how close his prediction was, especially the segment about how Russia would do worse if they focused on capturing Kyiv early.
@CR Hill i might partly agree with you. But sometimes i wonder things have gone too far for russia. Even if russia wins what would russia do with a ukraine sunk in anger and anti russia feelings? Economically speaking how would russia carry the burden of its actions and its reputation around the world? I think that a victory would be even worse to russia than an agreement with ukraine. Because in case of agreement russia would get rid of a big problem (ukraine itself)...
Unfortunately, the time has come for us to see how true this analysis is. :(
I pray for the Ukrainian people. Stay safe as best as you can, guys.
I've always wanted to find out how these scenarios would play out, but not like this... not like this
This is the most likely scenario a draw but Russia wins
Hey, atleast you can tell your grandchildren that you were alive when Russia invaded Ukraine.
To be fair Russia is advancing rather quickly and has already captured the airport. The faster Russia advances the faster Ukraine surrenders and the faster all the other countries can stop pretending to care. Therefore less casualties. Win win.
this video aged like fine wine
Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.
This was very inaccurate
So many people saying this aged like milk when we are only 2 days in and lots of the things he mentioned was accurate. Predicting stuff like this with 100% procession is impossible. There are so many factors at play. A variation in just one of them can completely change events that would follow.
I guess I should check in on this video over the weeks and months and see how accurate it is. It's looking pretty good so far.
That's why I'm watching it now
Just missed Belarus helping and allowing Russian forces to launch from it.
Turned out that Russia did have the second best army, in Ukraine...
I love the implicit argument in this comments section. Was Binkov accurate? Mostly, yeah, just overestimated the Russian military and not by as much as some are saying.
Don't listen to them, Binkov, you did great.
Agree completely. It's ridiculously hard to make a prediction like this with so many unknowns. Binkov did better than most.
So we all got this vid the same minute huh?….
yeah
@@guyyatsu yes
yes
precisely
how ridiculous that one of the historical documents studied by future historians to know what were we thinking befote the conflict, will have raid shadow legends ad XD
Who's here to see how accurate binkov is?
Me
Me
Me. Garbage analysis.
2 years later and he wasent really wrong
@@curio78 you know that weapons and amunition doesnt fight, but people do, right?
I find impressive the degree of accuracy with which Binkov predicted the actual war events with this video and the one he made in 2019! Respect!
Considering the countless variables, I agree.
A lot of this is spot on. But not the air combat component. Russia has not committed 1,000 aircraft to the operation. The Ukrainian air force seems to be doing much better than a "token." And Russia has not yet achieved air supremacy. Ukraine claims two IL-76 transports shot down in the last 24 hours and 14 aircraft destroyed overall.
Also don't forget to added Ukraine also friendly fire on thier 1 su-27
Mostly from ground fire though don’t forget
Russia has no ressources to operate his whole army at the same time thats why
It claims only.
The air supremacy is a question of time
I don't understand why people are saying that this video vastly overestimates Russian performance. By his own words, conquering the East half of Ukraine would take months -- perhaps until the winter. It's been less than one month since Russia's invasion began!
Look at the map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Right, but from the looks of things Russia isn't going to achieve that. They don't have the manpower, even if they bring in reinforcements.
Could even see some catastrophic defeats on some of their axis.
It's probably because in the video the surprise attack worked much better than it did. I presume the lack of logistics took everyone by surprise, Russians included.
The western media. In summary : « ukraine is winning meanwhile russians are progressing » 😂
@@tigoes I've hardly seen any media claiming that Ukraine is winning. Sure, many of them are very optimistic about Ukraine's chances at holding Russia back, but it's quite unquestionable that Russia is taking massive losses right now. Progressing, but at what cost? If they can't get their allies and puppets to bail them out, the attack is going to stagnate entirely and possibly collapse.
@@tigoes
"Progressing"
What is progress on the ground, why does that necessarily indicate they are going to win. These two things are not the same.
Plus progressing could just extend their logistics, which are bad as is, making them hard to defend and thus leaving the Russian combat arms exposed at the front to a counter attack...
You know like we are seeing in Mykolaiv and NE and NW of Kyiv.
I disagree with people saying he is very wrong.
This is the most educated guess one could have.
The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.)
It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.
Nope this way very wrong stop defending it
@@schakiarligonde1736 ok
@@schakiarligonde1736 it is wrong but it is still one of the best guesses that could have been deduced
@@schakiarligonde1736 you're wrong
This video is wrong
Strange, everyone saying he is wrong in his prediction seemed not to listen well to his timeline. He is talking about weeks to months of war before Russia would capture Ukraine. Other things he got wrong, but the timeline seems about right, as well as the casualty numbers. Russia having perhaps tens of thousands of casualties over the course of the war. He also accurately predicted US and NATO sanctions, even if he predicted a longer lag time for them. Certainly, it seems to have been a much more fair fight than expected, but if Russia is planning on a timeline of months and massive casualties, then, this actually scans pretty well with what we're seeing, at least in terms of those measurables.
Even if they do defeat ukraine this has been a complete disaster for Russia and has shown their military to be alot weaker than we thought. There is no way anyone can look at this unbiased and say this war went great for Russia
And we are back.
WW3 sponsored by raid shadow legends
How the F can some of the ppl say this aged like milk? This video is incredible for a prediction and many differences are due to NATO giving more military assistance much earlier and oil sanctions etc coming to russia much harder etc. The way he drew almost the map that we have right now for what russia would have to settle with due to manpower limits is toooo accurate.
It’s because his prediction of Russia taking half of Ukraine was very off
@@schakiarligonde1736before the war started everyone thought the entirety of ukraine would fall fast to the russians, this was honestly a pretty good prediction for the time
Ukraine is giving Russia an even harder time than Binkov predicted.
Yes because they are hiding in houses behind civilians. Propaganda bot get ready, Mariupol is almost fully captured so is Donbas region and they will surround Karkhiv. They don't want Kiev no, they want all the black sea region and if you see the news that goes as planned. Also the ones fighting in the ground is not the actual Russian army but Russian speakers of Ukraine the Russian army is fighting in the air, ALSO Ukraine army has lost all its air-force and navy to the Russians, and their only hope is hiding in buildings.
@@josephstalin331 you mad cuz you lost the game?
@@josephstalin331 weird how so many of those buildings have destroyed Russian armour outside them.
@@josephstalin331 Stop Lying Comrade Stalin. Remember when you said this???My Georgian friend.
"I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
-Joseph Stalin
Nikita Khrushchev shared the similar opinion in his memoirs:
"If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war, One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
@@josephstalin331 bad bot
Not a bad Blinkov prediction so far. He didn't see the attack going partially through Belarus.
Also said it would be unlikely for Russia to try to take Kiev. That seemed to be one of the goals from day 1.
IDK, Binkov's prediction on Kiev seem mixed. He said Kiev might not be occupied due to the river crossing required, but would still be a major target (presumably he means for missile/air strikes). So he wasn't far off, if he had factored in Belarus, then Kiev wouldn't just be a target but something that Russia would actually try to occupy.
Tanks seem basically obsolete when the Nlaws and Javelins exist. Don't blame Binkov for not getting this exactly right. This is the first time we've seen modern armed forces fight in quite a long time.
Part of the issue that is hard to give character to is that the armored forces are being screened with conscripts, and infantry who are basically lost. They're talking about not even knowing they were invading Ukraine until they where in it. Tanks are effective but they've never ever been invulnerable to AT weapons and from the first ever use of them, they were still knocked out. In this situation, the tanks are being used in vanguards without effective recon screens and infantry support that should've reduced the risk of this.
@@JRyan-lu5im yeah, they’ve failed hard at armored breakthroughs operations.
You have to be taking the piss right? You've seen 10-15 destroyed armor pieces from Ukraine who are posting any and every victory online and you think tanks are obsolete 😂
Would 1/4 of the massive country be lost in 3 days on foot?
@@chomes8048 1/4 of the country and the cost was just the russian economy
@@elmascapo6588 nice cope
this aged well lol, this is during the time we thought russia can defeat kiev in just 48-120 hours. but now, its almost like 4 or 5 months and the only major russian victory we have seen is mariupol, and no more frontline exists in kiev anymore
Russias economy is manually being held up by the government, it'll collapse at some point
It was hardly even a victory. They wasted multiple brigades just shelling the city for 3 months straight. In return they lost tens of thousands of artillery shells, a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers, and a bunch of rubble where the city once stood
Well, it’s happening
Not officially
@@johnirvine9942 it is
@@johnirvine9942 I have the video about it
@@BurningBlueFox123 send link
@@BurningBlueFox123 I made this comment without the full knowledge of the situation, sorry.
This aged amazingly
@Bredboi-tb6fd your right
In particular, it must be taken into account that this prediction was made at a time when everyone else was saying "3 days and Kiev will be Russian". At the time, this was an incredibly "optimistic" to "idealistic" view that went against all military experts, intelligence agencies, etc.
This is basically what every intelligence agency predicted as well. We wayyyy over estimated Russia’s military competence and capabilities. This should have been over in a week.
He didn't foresee that Russia would go directly for Kiev via Belarus. Other than that the analysis it's pretty much accurate.
And 10 days later we get why. 40 miles of traffic jam with little gas and supply.
This video indeed aged well. I remember watching this when it first came out. And it was the only video that (1) didn't say Russia would win, (2) Russia would win very quickly. Remember, back then everyone thought it would be over fast with a Russian victory.
I remember when Russia drop paratrooper near Kiev and people were trolling Binkov saying the was about to end after like a week but none of them understood that the Russia army was still near the border.
True, however even he overestimated the russian army (not as much as everyone else tho)
Russia didn't open as strong as it could have because it underestimated Ukraine resilience. They could have thrown way more but didn't. Not to mention they had the column heading towards Kiev and turned it around after the Ukrainians said they were ready for peace talks. But we all know Ukraine had no such intentions.
@@Gongolongo There's also the fact that the corruption in the military was a lot worse than thought.
Keep in mind that pre feb 2022, no one knew that the Russian military corruption and logistics were THAT bad
Having videos like this makes me wonder what future historians would think. If RUclips is around long enough for this video to be viewed by future historians I’d be shocked- but could you imagine them finding this archive of events happening during these times, but they’d have to watch a Raid: Shadow Legends ad first?
It'd be like getting through messages to patrons in the past. Not particularly special honestly.
2:35 “Much better equipped and knows how to use them” This didn’t age well. =)
It's not about aging. He was just too charitable.
well, they were better equipped. Maybe they also know how to use the stuff, but there's a long way from there to being competent.
it looks like you are right binkov , russia dont have easy .
Suprising how many parts aged really well. Good job & respect!
Who is here after Russia did "actually'" invade Ukraine ?
Let us not forget that there's only one thing for certain for Modern Warfare; it's completely unpredictable.
Take the Second Nagaro Karabakh War for example; at the start, many assumed that war would go on for at least a year and have the same level of devastation as the first War. But instead, it was so quick and decisive for the Azeris that not even the most pro-Azeri sources thought the victory would be so easy for them, because pretty much all military strategists underestimated the potential effectiveness of UAVs. And in comparison to the first one, Second Nagaro Karabakh War ended in little over a month and resulted in 8,000~ dead, while the First War lasted for 6 years and tens of thousands of dead.
There are definitely factors in Ukraine that we are all might be overlooking. So who knows, maybe this whole invasion will be much more easier or harder for the Russia.
Edit: You know how this ended
I'd bank on easier. I'd give the ukraine about 10 days at most.
@@deanboy2416 I'd argue the opposite tbh. Mobilization might be bit faster and more people could enlist in literal defence of their homes. Idk, wars are unpredictable, rarely go as planned on paper.
@@hatman3445 with paper military and shit moral they'll probably surrender in less than a week
@@kalactose348 Doubtful, recently polls suggest much higher support for insurgency and resistance against Russia especially around Kyiv. Some 60 percent said they would be willing to take up arms against Russia, and that was a poll across the whole country. Russia doesn't have the financial and political power to hold onto the pro-west regions of Ukraine. And the battle for Kyiv would be a bloodbath on a scale we haven't seen since the cold war, no one would win.
@@hatman3445 The russians wouldnt be coming to burn down the home though. And most people in the ukraine dont hold their politicians too highly. In fact, some polls indicate they trust Putin more than their own leaders...
So I dont think that most of them would view the situation as you described.
In retrospect, the analysis has fairly stood the test of time. Its biggest mistake was in failing to anticipate how irrationally Russia would behave. If I put the military experts' analysis of the time side by side, this is one of the best predictions (at least from what I've read/heard - of course I'm far from having read everything).
Binkov correctly points out that an attack on Kiev is unlikely - Russia doesn't have enough troops. Well, Russia did attack - and it ended in a bloodbath. The part about the importance of NATO-Ukraine information sharing was also very apt.
The estimate that the war would end in the winter was entirely correct - provided that Putin thinks about the future of his nation. No one could have expected Putin to sacrifice tens of thousands of reservists just to buy time. Nor did Binkov estimate that Russia would stoop so low as to target Ukraine's infrastructure in an attempt to terrorize civilians in an effort to trigger a migrant crisis.
Still, it's a lesson: I remember seeing this video before the war broke out and thinking: "it's clear, there will be no war. If there is, Putin will just occupy the Donbas." And while I was smiling smugly at the simplicity of the whole situation, I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack.
So next time: rationality is a fine thing. It's just that even the best analysis can run into your opponent behaving completely irrationally. And even the most straightforward situation can turn out completely unexpectedly. For example, by losing several thousand euros because Putin didn't even get information from his intelligence services that was freely available on youtube.
---
Note - the money I lost doesn't bother me. I already sent a bunch of money to the Ukrainian army. Now I only care about one thing: I want to see Putin and all those Russian nationalists suffer for what they have done. I will never forgive Russia - and neither should you.
Xoxol spok
"I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack." Yikes, hope you are still relatively doing well.
Yep, eastern military are commanded by politicians rather than competent generals.
@@opex9979 Interesting how that point of view can vary. You mean that more as an insult, don't you? Yet we in the West see courage, tenacity and other positive qualities in Ukraine.
While in the west we have lost touch with reality, no one wants to die for "the homeland" - why should they, when freedom and wealth seem to be a given here. The Ukrainians, by contrast, have confronted an enemy many times stronger, refused to compromise, and in a situation where our analysts gave Kiev 3 days, they brought the Russian army to its knees.
Of course, I know that Ukraine is not perfect - but nobody is. If any nation can be looked up to and admired now, it is your "xoxol".
They made us understand how naive we were towards Russia and that while we assumed that Russia needed to be negotiated with and compromised with, Ukrainians saw through this game and nipped Russian imperialism in the bud.
I know that it is not yet won - maybe one day Russia will manage to get that Bakhmut, maybe Ukraine will not be able to liberate some territories after all, but it does not change the fact that Russia has lost. Morally, politically and militarily. And it didn't take a mighty NATO, the US and WWIII to do it. All it took was one nation that refused to compromise with evil.