What might happen if Russia does attack Ukraine?
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- Опубликовано: 25 янв 2022
- Binkov analyzes various possibilities if Russia does end up sending its military force to attack Ukraine. How would the military conflict go? Where might Russia stop? What would the economic and political fallout be both for Russia and the rest of the world?
Images used in the thumbnail:
Putin by Kremlin.ru (CC BY 4.0)
creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Music by Matija Malatestinic www.malatestinic.com
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Развлечения
Binkov's knowledge is finally being put to the test.
wanna bet 10 bucks on it?? ill give you my paypal 😂
@@billsima6983 What’s the options? Over/under?
I'm watching this to see how accurate this video is.
@@drsev61 eyyyyy me too :D
Binkov videos are never going to be fully accurate because of how they purposefully ignore 3rd parties to the conflicts. Stuff like global sanctions and invading through Belarus aren't accounted for.
There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.
7:56
Since it seems everyone thought Putin could be bluffing and with Europe as hesitant as it is, it seems he felt an all or nothing approach was worth it
A video about a Russia determined and ready to devote the necessary resources to take as much as it can might as well be only a few seconds
Russia dominates, no contest
I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine and he won't get that quickly as already said in the video
@@joseSanchez-ej2oh Russia dominates in the graveyards, and nowhere else lol.
@@GespenstDesKommunismus _"I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine"_
Given the sizes of the Russian invading forces and the directions in which they've advanced, I don't think Putini ever planned to _forcibly_ occupy the whole country.
Instead, his *military* objective was to occupy the southern coast, taking control of the ports and access to the Black Sea, thereby making a land bridge connecting Crimea and the Donbas.
He's successfully achieved his military objective.
His *political* objective was to overthrow the government in Kyiv, in the hope that this would end Ukrainian resistance.
Kyiv still hasn't fallen and Ukrainians continue to resist, so he's failed to achieve his political objective, as yet.
@@GonzoTehGreat Not quite, he planned to quickly take Kiev to insert a new gouvernment by force and then put the entire Ukraine under the control of his puppet gouvernment using the military. That's essentially an occupation of the whole country
A guy on RUclips narrating his videos with a literal hand puppet put everyone else's predictions to shame. I love it!
Sadly history repeats itself his analysis was excellent and detailed but I'm an idiot and a lot of this seemed obvious to me before the war however I'm glad I was wrong overall I said Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia it can put up a hell of a fight and give the russian army a bloody nose but Russia will quickly destroy most of there combat units and destroy most of the countrys CCC in a week lol
"the Russia is way more well equiped and knows how to use that equipment"
💀💀💀
I was about to say that statement aged like milk.
I gave up on this guy when he covered what would happen in a U.S. v China war. He had the U.S. attempting a ground invasion and occupation of China. No competent strategist would even consider that. He also seems to put way to much emphasis on sheer numbers.
@@commonsense5494 Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.
1/5 of Ukraine territory under Russian control, Ukrainian navy crippled, nearly all fuel supply destroyed, crippled Ukrainian air force.
@@revolter7094 you watch too much propaganda
One mistake was made here, assumption that Russian military is actually modern and not stuck in Soviet era.
Ukraine's air defenses were also better than "obsolete."
Your russian modern weapon plus hungry russian soldier and limited gas. Like how the fuck it would last?
Yes
Soviet weapons? At least those weapons were new in Soviet times. Now be they are supporting defective Chinese tires.
The Russian armed forces are large and modern.
But the modern part ain't large.
And the large part ain't modern.
You didn't account for Germany sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine.
THIS. CHANGES. EVERYTHING.
Lol I see what you did there
Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!
Not our war, keep crying
@@frankmueller6522 Pls don't say that, America has enough influence on the world. They are massive bullies who just abuse power where they see fit. Look at the atrocities in Isreal and Palestine, Israel forcefully taking land and attacking and bombing civilians? And America supports those actions and turns a blind eye towards it, then calls Palestine aggressors if they fight for defending their own land?
Amazing sarcasm 🤣🤣
"a few hundred javelins wont make a difference"...
2 months later... "20 anti tank missiles for every tank in Russia"
*i like those odds*
who needs affordable healthcare or education anyways amiright fellas??
@@byloyuripka9624 Hard to get affordable healthcare and education when they bomb those places lol
@@byloyuripka9624 These things arent mutually exclusive. We're only spending 5% of our annual defense budget to demilitarize one of our biggest security threats.
News just in America runs out of javelins will take years to re stock!!!!
A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly.
Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response.
Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.
It has aged exactly.
Because they failed in history class
This is truth
Did Ukraine exceed expectations or did the Russians simply fail to meet theirs? Might be both. So wouldn't praise or blame anyone yet.
dunno man the wars not ended, and the recent ukraine counter offensive failed
Binkov - “mostly likely won’t attack”
Putin - “hold my beer”
This didnt age well…
To be fair who tf thought he was going to attack
@@theinfinity2988 the writing was on the wall bruh
Putin was most likely trying to bluff the NATO into giving concessions. That failed and now they're invading to most likely to save face - Just a prediction
@@Link9058 says who
Not even the people of ukraine thought he was going to attack
i knew WW3 wouldn’t start without a RAID SHADOW LEGEND sponsorship.
One thing that Blinkov couldn't know is that the Russian army would become a major source of equipment for Ukraine.
Ukraine and NATO are suppliers of pro-Russian forces too. And it is debatalbe wo gets more
I just saw a while ago that Russia is collecting Javelins and Stingers from Ukraine bases, it goes both ways, Russia supplies Ukraine with weapons and NATO supplies Russia with weapons.
@@budgetproductions1178 Yep, and the Ukrainians won't be volunteering that information.
@@budgetproductions1178 Most NATO supplies will end up with Ukrainians, those depots were likely captured in the first few days around Kherson.
You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.
What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.
>Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO/
Or it would result in the states bordering Russia to balance Russian interests with NATO. Thus resetting the European balance of power.
>and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country.
So cancel America's pivot to Asia? Considering China's maritime trajectory that isn't happening.
> it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives.
Remains to be seen, we could also see tens of thousands of Ukrainians surrender in the first week. But i don't have a crystal ball.....
@E Cognitio Balancing Russian interests? Russia isn't the only country in the region, most countries that exist in Europe exist because they value their sovereignty, not because they want to cater to the whims of Russians. That why they join NATO, to protect their interests, instead of that of Russia.
@@onlyplaysveigar7241 That wasn't true during the cold war, research "Finlandization" in which the country chose to stay neutral in the confrontation.
Why would sweden join NATO? I understand Finland joining even if that is also not likely at all as Russia has no intention of expanding into Finland and bordering Sweden. Sweden is a relatively strong country, Russia wouldnt gain anything from threatning Sweden, plus they dont even border Russia.
@E Cognitio I know about Finlandization but it has no relevance to contemporary politics, since Russia is acting unilaterally.
I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.
75% ain't bad at all.
Your not wrong. It's just how maybe 🤔 right you are.
Well. Now they retreat from Kyiv.
In war unexpected things happens, not everything would follow the plan.
Okay. I am impressed. Not perfect, but better predictions than any “news” organizations. Excellent work.
You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.
you forgot the incompetence of the Russian officer corp
Also Russia got a lot less territory in reality
It’s because it’s not true
Russians did not expect organized resistance, and thus didn’t plan like a real war
@@schakiarligonde1736 they took 25% of the country in one week (excluding Crimea and 2014 occupied territories)
Now it’s only like 17% after Ukraine retook Kherson and kharkiv
Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.
The part that got me was “Russia would enjoy air superiority” This makes me feel better for all my past mistakes
well that point still baffles military analysts. We know Russia sucks at training their pilots, but they still have somewhat modern planes in great numbers and supporting artillery (to take out anti-air sites). Looks like Russia was taken completely by surprise that they lost access to GPS, which eliminated their artillery- and missile accuracy. As a result, Ukraine anti-air sites are still standing and Russian can't send high-altitude planes into the warzones. At least that seems like the most prevalent explanation.
@@InTaco7 I also read somewhere that Russian military air doctrine doesn't really perform missions to destroy SAM sights like the U.S. does, for example the Wild Weasel Squadron. That with the Russian pilots apparently having very few flight hours and the shear difficultly in spotting and evading MANPADS makes it very hard to win air superiority. Not to say the their fleet isn't respectable I think that it is but many factor contribute to them not achieving the results they wanted. And without air cover tanks are just easy picking for drones, javelins, etc.
They pretty much own the air ways. They don't have air supremacy but they certainly dominate.
So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.
you'd need lots of people taking lsd for a long time to predicate the tractor fleet :D in fact the analysis is quite solid. often the map of russian progress corresponds to today's reality. and yeah: nobody expected such poor performance of the russian army and its command
@ Yeah, I think you're right. Who would have guessed that Russia under Putin would do so poorly at intelligence and operational security - and Binkov does have another video criticizing the Russian air force.
Tractors are the apex predator on the battlefield.
What do those farmers do w those tanks once they have towed them home? Did the Russians install lowjack on them?
@@paulbabcock2428
Sell em on eBay :)
This aged well
“Well this aged”
- Yoda
Thats right!
This aged like a fine wine
The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.
1. The effectiveness of initial strike on eliminating Ukrainian airforce. One single bomb on an airstrip in a video I saw took out 6 migs.
2. How quickly such a small force would subdue millions of residents in the most densely populated eastern side of the country.
3. How Ukrainians would park equipment at schools, residential blocks and other public buildings in populated areas despite the pleading of locals to move them elsewhere to protect the children and families hiding in nearby basements and homes.
4. How many weapons the Chechens would capture undefended.
5. How accurate air strikes and artillery can be to continually take out Ukrainian military trucks and armor on busy highways with no/minimal collateral damage.
6. The speed at which Russian flags would be raised in cities with a new video coming out every few hours of flag raising in a new city.
7. The one sided nature of the reporting (should be expected really) that makes people think that Ukraine is doing well despite continual and steady gains over 3 days resulting in 1/4 of Ukraine already being occupied, an enormous swath of land larger than most European nations.
8. People thinking that wars only last a week and if it's not all over in a week then something went majorly wrong 😂
@@chomes8048 Whatever pitiful sum Putin's paying you to spew that drivel, he's not getting his money's worth.
@@brucetucker4847 True, nobody is buying that nonsense.
@@chomes8048 Silence, bot. Russia is targeting civilians, Ukrainian forces are not hiding among civilians.
@@Mygg_Jeager by the way I have shared the telegram channel twice already where you can see the evidence that you are completely wrong. Not that you will put in the 2 seconds of effort to see the truth.
Who's watching in March to see how accurate this was?
Я смотрю
Sadly
2 years later and he wasent really wrong
@@curio78 you know that weapons and amunition doesnt fight, but people do, right?
This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao.
This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.
It's not disfunction or corruption. Russia thought it would be like Austra in 1930s and fold nonviolently
Yea, Russia is strange country. Not so weak as many think, but also not so powerhouse as most think. In the end Russia fall to it's inability in fight in modern conflict (which should not suprise, consider how they well in Checenya two times and in Syria throw rockets at everything). Add gigantic corruption (same for Ukraine but much larger) and gigantic help from world to Ukraine and you get the result.
Binkow made a scenario with information he had.
Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down
Finally, thank you. Even generals have a hard time when it comes to predict military conflicts, but apparently on RUclips everybody is a military genius smh
I mean it is evident that the Russian generals did get their initial plan wrong as well so....
@Xaer Hanler this video was made before the Russian troops entered Belarus, so it wasn't so easy to predict their involvement.
😂😂😂WTA?
I don't see anyone giving binkov hard time. It's rather fascinating to observe the divergence as in most cases it just proves how insane some of the war developments have been
This seems like potentially the most pointless conflict yet. If this causes WW3 I'll be pissed 😅
I hate to be boring but a 'Hot War' between any major superpowers can not happen due to the M.A.D doctrine.
The only way it can possibly happen is if Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles can be shot down meaning a nuclear attack is unable to occur from both sides or by one side.
@@ChocManus That's a bit naive. Two nuclear powers could ofc have a conventional war, they just couldn't have a WW2 style unconditional surrender because noone with a big red button would take that.
@@towakin7718 I’d be starting a war that can only end one way
@@offdeck8588 If you'd start a war that can only end one way it's a good thing you've got nothing to say!
WWI was started by a political assassination. You never know.
this video aged like fine wine
Russian side have heavy armaments and knows how to use them.
Sorry binkov but it appears they don't.
There's that.
They do know how to level a city from afar using artillery and missiles.
@@camelcase811 they didnt do it enmass because they care about civilians.
Forgot to account for the legendary Ukrainian Tractor Battalions. 🚜🚜🚜🚜
Found 1 guy selling an AFV in Ukraine on eBay
LOL Underrated comment :)
I just pictured a small section of the video saying "Ukrainians could start using their overwhelming farming equipment capabilities to tow away Russian tanks"
Everyone's just coming back to this video now lol
Yep I pray it is correct in the assessment that some of ukraine will stay out of russian control
Yep
You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!
China & Russia are so closely linked at this point that I'm surprised Chinese troops haven't shown up in Ukraine.*sarcasm* It DOES appear however that Xi has become slightly more hesitant about trying to do a "lightning seizure" of Taiwan.
We overestimated Russia, underestimated Ukraine and how fast the EU would react as a whole.
EU is nothing but a joke
@@DreadRising use your brain dude
This whole Invasion made the EU act as a single entity for once
@@DreadRising lol ok vatnik
@@DreadRising well, this aged well
Well this is unfortunately the first time we will actually see a practical test on whether the hypothetical scenario is accurate
Sadly true
No. Previously Binkov had made predictions about a probable war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region . The war really occurred but Binkov's predictions did not come true at all. In contrary, they have made much more accurate predictions this time.
Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...
Really? Pinballman1
It is amazing how close his prediction was, especially the segment about how Russia would do worse if they focused on capturing Kyiv early.
@CR Hill i might partly agree with you. But sometimes i wonder things have gone too far for russia. Even if russia wins what would russia do with a ukraine sunk in anger and anti russia feelings? Economically speaking how would russia carry the burden of its actions and its reputation around the world? I think that a victory would be even worse to russia than an agreement with ukraine. Because in case of agreement russia would get rid of a big problem (ukraine itself)...
This aged amazingly
@@Bredboi-tb6fd your right
In particular, it must be taken into account that this prediction was made at a time when everyone else was saying "3 days and Kiev will be Russian". At the time, this was an incredibly "optimistic" to "idealistic" view that went against all military experts, intelligence agencies, etc.
This is basically what every intelligence agency predicted as well. We wayyyy over estimated Russia’s military competence and capabilities. This should have been over in a week.
Well, it’s not an “if” anymore…
So we all got this vid the same minute huh?….
yeah
@@guyyatsu yes
yes
precisely
I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.
Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine was well prepared for a Russian invasion. But yet, Russia could have succeeded to take Kiev in the early days of war. Maybe Ukraine just survived because Elon Musk let them use skylink!!
We about to find out boys!
ahh yes, reckoning day is upon us.
You did not mention that use of Belarus territory is possible, destroying ukranian north flang and opening rout to full annexation
Maybe not full annexation but certainly negating the effects of the Dnieper as a defensive barrier. Means Russia can certainly achieve much more militarily in a much shorter time, no one seems to know how many Russians are stationed in Belarus either as of present or in a few weeks as they don’t seem to be included in the total Russian troop count on Ukraine border.
Damn right!
God bless President Lukashenko. May God give many more Prosperous Years! Da!
@Andy I suggest watching the latest video by Caspianreport RUclips channel, it’s highly informative about the prospects of war and Belarus’ potential involvement.
@Andy No, Belarus is actually quite likely to support Russia. The states it borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania do not have the forces to occupy it with Russian troops stationed there nor would they dare start a war with a Russian ally. The worst they would get is more sanctions.
Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect
Well ...lot of people count on the EU being divided, but if it is not it has pretty much the economic power of a superpower.
Yes, based on open source intel, his assessment was pretty good. One may say even better than the Kremlin's.
What nobody predicted is that Ukraine will end up with more equipment after the war than before
Ukraine even have some weapons now they never had. Russians gave it.
That is because the idea is totally naive and 100% contrast to what you see happening. After the war Ukraine will have the land that Putin does not demand handed over and a depleted army. It has been worn out over 4 months now and there will be no replacements coming and there is no time to train any or heavy weapons for them even if they could.. Russia advanced using only a fraction of its army when the Ukranian army was intact and receiving aid. So Russia will advance even faster the more worn out and weak the ukranian army without question will become.
Am I the only one watching this video again to compare with what is happening irl?
Nope.
we can see how well your battle predictions are for the first time.
Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.
This was very inaccurate
Accurate and credible as usual.
Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected.
1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be.
2) air superiority was never really there
3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands.
4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media.
All pessimistic points happened.
1) sanctions
2) internal russian dissent
3) huge losses in manpower and equipment
4) invasion bogged down
AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic.
Probably an update is due by now...
If he updates and speaks the truth, he ends up in gulag and drinks radioactive tea
Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a RUclipsr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.
I've always wanted to find out how these scenarios would play out, but not like this... not like this
This is the most likely scenario a draw but Russia wins
Hey, atleast you can tell your grandchildren that you were alive when Russia invaded Ukraine.
To be fair Russia is advancing rather quickly and has already captured the airport. The faster Russia advances the faster Ukraine surrenders and the faster all the other countries can stop pretending to care. Therefore less casualties. Win win.
Predicted everything extremely well, except for the real shocker: the complete ineptitude of the Russian military, which no one could of predicted.
Why do you say that?
@@lanceb7288 because the supposedly second most powerful military in the world (Russia) is struggling to make significant gains against the 21st most powerful military (Ukraine). Looks like the Russian military is pretty incompetent, over a month in and Russia is yet to establish air superiority against an air force of less than 100 aircraft
Even if that is the case, the extent of military takes was accurate. So did that even matter, or did he even actually predicted it right?
@@sup3r475 sure.. I would agree this is what you are told, but is it true?
Binkov and CNN tell us the kiev region withdraw was actually a huge ukrainian offensive, but is this true? Especially when both sides admit it is not?
Not everything in war is as it seems. Sometimes propaganda is used for various reasons.
I think as long as ukraine cedes to more and more russian demands in their desperate effort to surrender... you should feel more and more free to ignore this propaganda. After all, actions speak louder than words.
“Russia has modern heavy armour and knows how to use them” yikes
Um...
they have flat tires, because the money for the army went to the officiers
Yes, made me laugh. Funny how four weeks can change everything. Nobody is now considering Russia as a conventional military threat anymore.
Well that’s why the like to make people believe with their propaganda. Binkov went by what was publicly accessible at the time. Which was a Russia filled with Armata tanks and and Su57’s.
@@petertwiss4215 they have the threat of nukes. But they’re an expensive arsenal that requires advanced technology to maintain… do they even have that capability anymore?
Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.
The catch is that China and Russia are not really all that friendly allies. Favors given by China aren't free... and China does claim a good chunk of East Russia. I think how much support China gives depends on how much Russia is willing to part with.
Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.
Indeed
Im being to suspect that Comrade is a high ranking military officer specializing in the strategy analysis department. His videos are always spot on 😁😁😁
Opinion of a citizen of Ukraine.
🇺🇦🇷🇺
Ukraine must be and will be divided. And it was decided not by Russia, but by the United States. National Security Adviser to the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard that the West must wrest Ukraine from the orbit of Russian influence, if not completely, then at least its western part. He understood that the south and east of Ukraine were inhabited by Russian people. In 2014, the West managed to take control of Ukraine, losing only Crimea and part of the Donbass. But the last 8 years have shown that the West is not able to swallow the whole torn off piece. Therefore, they will be forced to withdraw from the east and south of Ukraine, leaving it to Russia.
The Russian people are the most divided people in the world. Due to the fact that the Bolsheviks did not neatly divide the territory of the Russian Empire into Soviet republics, after the collapse of the USSR, millions of Russians found themselves outside their fatherland. In 1989 the German people were united. The Russian people also deserve to be reunited.
🇺🇦You should know that the West supports the unpopular, non-democratic, anti-people, oligarchic authorities in Ukraine, which uses the Nazis to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, and the war in Donbass to justify economic failures! The Ukrainian authorities talk about the occupation of Donbass by Russia only for the Western public , but here they openly say that it is impossible to return the Donbass. Because after the return of millions of pro-Russian citizens to the electoral field of Ukraine, they will immediately lose power.🇺🇦
🇷🇺Respectfully, a resident of Russian Kharkov.🇷🇺
@@user-yu1ey6iu2t You are not a citizen of Ukraine,hush
@@chsgrate5362 It's not a lie, it's the truth. God knows it. I was born in Kharkov and have lived here all my life. I am not going to leave anywhere, and I did not have any other citizenship except the citizenship of Ukraine.
I disagree with people saying he is very wrong.
This is the most educated guess one could have.
The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.)
It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.
Nope this way very wrong stop defending it
@@schakiarligonde1736 ok
@@schakiarligonde1736 it is wrong but it is still one of the best guesses that could have been deduced
@@schakiarligonde1736 you're wrong
This video is wrong
Gotta say, it was a shockingly close analysis to the reality, gotta respect Binkov’s wealth of knowledge
Yeah! Binkov is Expert on this
Nope it aged poorly
@@schakiarligonde1736the massive corruption in the Russian armed forces was not taken into consideration because it's massive extend was extremely underestimated back in the day.
@@schakiarligonde1736 The only thing he got wrong about the final map, if we compare it to today, is giving Russia *too much* territory. But Russia was forced to withdraw from the northeast, and was routed in Kharkiv. Russia was trying, after losing the battle of Kyiv (Which Binkov correctly predicted), to take the whole of the other side of the Dnieper, but lost.
@@nerdius8204 Yeah, you nailed the bit about corruption
Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.
Wait, really? Do you have a link? :O
@@lexingtonbrython1897 This is one video that explains it very well, but you can find more info on the internet if you search. Including the declaration from NATO that they will make the decision over night for their inclusion. ruclips.net/video/SWcJkVyJqIc/видео.html&ab_channel=CaspianReport
@@simplepixel5617 some people are too lazy to do their own research, they often ask do you have a link lol
@@VolodyaMuchavsky That will only happen in Nuculair war, Blow this planet out the space for ever. its a sick planet build on war war war oil, dollars for ricth elites soros schawab, rockkefellers echt sic poepole, and a Sick Media virus is the propaganda cancer in this world.
@@VolodyaMuchavsky it's funny that you assume it won't be the other way around. Invade a NATO member and eat a nuke for breakfast.
Is it just me or is the Russian strategy proposed in this video more reasonable than what they are actually doing at the moment?
Indeed...
StarCraft taught that zerg rushing was effective. It did not teach those units needed to eat every 5 minutes and that the units bringing them food were extremely vulnerable.
You’re right. I’m not sure what they’re actually trying to accomplish. But in general they should have started by removing all the air defenses, followed by a couple of weeks of bombardment and bombings, and then the armored troops should have been sent in. They just sent out a bunch of tanks that are getting taken out left and right.
@@hashtagunderscore3173 aparently they didnt have the resources to do that, on top of believing that they war would be over in a day or two
@@hashtagunderscore3173 apparently they didn’t know where those air defenses are; just emblematic of further problems in the Russian military
2:30 "and knows how to use them" that part didn't age well.
And yet, RUclips recommended this video today, who's watching this video 2 months after jt was launched 😂
This world crisis is sponsored by Raid Shadow Legends
Their game studio is set in Kiev, Ukraine btw.
Its really sad when a guy using a sock puppet has more foresight than most politicians....
How the F can some of the ppl say this aged like milk? This video is incredible for a prediction and many differences are due to NATO giving more military assistance much earlier and oil sanctions etc coming to russia much harder etc. The way he drew almost the map that we have right now for what russia would have to settle with due to manpower limits is toooo accurate.
It’s because his prediction of Russia taking half of Ukraine was very off
@@schakiarligonde1736before the war started everyone thought the entirety of ukraine would fall fast to the russians, this was honestly a pretty good prediction for the time
No one had any idea of the impact of tractors on modern warfare. Slava Ukraini!
WW3 sponsored by raid shadow legends
And we are back.
"Equipped with modern heavy armor and knows how to use them." This didn't age well! Everything else was pretty close, though.
It is true, just didn't say a small number of each.
24 hours into the actual invasion, and your analysis checks out so far.
yes
Hahaha checks out for Russian bs propaganda
It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.
im not on russias side but i dont think its caused by putins ego. The ammount of importance of this invasion is way beyond a few sanctions i recommend watching real life lores 30minute video on it
This was a very decent prediction of events. Impressed.
Well from diplomatic stand, he predicted everything correctly
I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate.
Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.
Never have i thought i could see how accurate he is
Nope it isn’t that accurate
@@schakiarligonde1736 i didn't ssy he was accurate i said i wanted to see how accurate
I love the implicit argument in this comments section. Was Binkov accurate? Mostly, yeah, just overestimated the Russian military and not by as much as some are saying.
Don't listen to them, Binkov, you did great.
Agree completely. It's ridiculously hard to make a prediction like this with so many unknowns. Binkov did better than most.
Putin also has troops on the Ukraine-Belarus border right? That would change the invasion outlay a bit. Kiev could be isolated fairly easily
But involving them would be risky. Especially as it would be war of theft, not of defense.
Damn right!
Who's here to see how accurate binkov is?
Me
Me
Me. Garbage analysis.
As time has shown, this was a pretty good prediction except it overestimates the strength of Russian armour and the quality and motivation of their troops (which we all did) all of which are something of an embarrassment to Putin.
Its hard to predict the effect of incompetence
My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.
Unfortunately not many people will listen to you
@@zlo333 yeah, people have been like rhat for millenia. :( I am truly afraid. I have nwver experienced a war but all the previous generations in my family have lived through one and most even fought in them in e past 200 years. Terrible-terrible times.
@@the_real_lajos_toth i agree with u completly, war destroys people mentaly as well, ptsd for example and it is young people, and they are on the wining side, my granfathets fought in 2nd world war at least they knew what they were fighting for
In Islam empire the one who escaped from frighting for Islam will not be killed if the Islam soldier capture any the infidel troopers they will be treated with food and drink in jail and they have to teach the children how to write and read that was during prophet Muhammad era during ottoman I think they still do the same or maybe kill them
You are right. But what can we do when the circles have one button mass destruction options?
I guess I should check in on this video over the weeks and months and see how accurate it is. It's looking pretty good so far.
That's why I'm watching it now
Just missed Belarus helping and allowing Russian forces to launch from it.
To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.
"Never going to happen. Europeans are being hysterical"
Putin and Lavrov last month
So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.
lmao what are you smoking. They are inside kiev already. it's over this weekend
Bruv lmao
@@DarkAlan2 russian fake news got to you dude. They are close to Kiev but won it yet
WW3 is gonns start soon
@@misterxxxxxxxxx1 nah
Suprising how many parts aged really well. Good job & respect!
this aged well lol, this is during the time we thought russia can defeat kiev in just 48-120 hours. but now, its almost like 4 or 5 months and the only major russian victory we have seen is mariupol, and no more frontline exists in kiev anymore
Russias economy is manually being held up by the government, it'll collapse at some point
It was hardly even a victory. They wasted multiple brigades just shelling the city for 3 months straight. In return they lost tens of thousands of artillery shells, a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers, and a bunch of rubble where the city once stood
Except for the fact that Belarus wasn't calculated into this, this was highly accurate,
Though Russia seems to have done somewhat worse than predicted here. At least not that many Ukrainian troops seem to have been isolated into pockets and dealt with in piecemeal.
only one major citie as TODAY 02/03/2022
@@seneca983 How bad? Kiev is already under siege after day 3.
@@overclock1993 It's only one area. The graphics in this video seemed to indicate Ukrainian troops in the east getting isolated into many pockets.
(Another factor not predicted in this video is Kyiv getting approached from Belarus on the western side of the Dnieper.)
@@christopheralejandromezapa8934 It takes weeks to besiege and take over cities. They have cut off multiple big ones at this point, Mariupol being the main one.
30 days after they invade and I hear..." Russian has modern weapon systems and knows how to use them.". ROFLMAO we were all so naive back then
"1000 combat jets". Yep, there was definitely a little overestimation
I got a good chuckle out of that line also. The whole world thought russia was the real deal. Turns out they are a joke thankfully. Otherwise i thought this was spot on.
You mean 40 days?
he didnt even predict that russia would bring back their ww2 armored train
Did they actually do that?
@@Tuck-Shop Yes
@@chaospilot2142 Holy fuzzballs.
I got to find info on that for my train mad son
how ridiculous that one of the historical documents studied by future historians to know what were we thinking befote the conflict, will have raid shadow legends ad XD
Who’s here after Russia invaded them?
It's April and so much of this seems so prescient. Well done, Binkov!
Not quiet. Even this video didn’t realize how Ukraine military would hold up. Same time overestimated Russia
Even in hindsight, this is quite an excellent analysis.
This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1.
Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion.
Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.
well shit...
World war 3 incoming ☠️
true
@@DengkieLT You will be disappointed
watched this video just a week before the actual invasion, and just rewatched it. Binkov actually got it pretty good in terms of the economic fallout. On the military front, the spread of forces with the Belarus attack changed the whole picture. And as pretty much most people back in 2021, Binkov assumed that russian military would act like a professional force and not be hijacked by unrealistic political wishful thinking,
The amount of foreign aid to Ukraine was unaccounted for and is a major reason for the Russians stalling
Any military force is only seen as professional if it meets a unmodernized force. They steamroll lesser forces but, when faced with a competent and well supplied force, the current situation arises
And keeping the fight away from the north helps Belarus not be immediately dragged into the conflict
In retrospect, the analysis has fairly stood the test of time. Its biggest mistake was in failing to anticipate how irrationally Russia would behave. If I put the military experts' analysis of the time side by side, this is one of the best predictions (at least from what I've read/heard - of course I'm far from having read everything).
Binkov correctly points out that an attack on Kiev is unlikely - Russia doesn't have enough troops. Well, Russia did attack - and it ended in a bloodbath. The part about the importance of NATO-Ukraine information sharing was also very apt.
The estimate that the war would end in the winter was entirely correct - provided that Putin thinks about the future of his nation. No one could have expected Putin to sacrifice tens of thousands of reservists just to buy time. Nor did Binkov estimate that Russia would stoop so low as to target Ukraine's infrastructure in an attempt to terrorize civilians in an effort to trigger a migrant crisis.
Still, it's a lesson: I remember seeing this video before the war broke out and thinking: "it's clear, there will be no war. If there is, Putin will just occupy the Donbas." And while I was smiling smugly at the simplicity of the whole situation, I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack.
So next time: rationality is a fine thing. It's just that even the best analysis can run into your opponent behaving completely irrationally. And even the most straightforward situation can turn out completely unexpectedly. For example, by losing several thousand euros because Putin didn't even get information from his intelligence services that was freely available on youtube.
---
Note - the money I lost doesn't bother me. I already sent a bunch of money to the Ukrainian army. Now I only care about one thing: I want to see Putin and all those Russian nationalists suffer for what they have done. I will never forgive Russia - and neither should you.
Xoxol spok
"I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack." Yikes, hope you are still relatively doing well.
Yep, eastern military are commanded by politicians rather than competent generals.
@@opex9979 Interesting how that point of view can vary. You mean that more as an insult, don't you? Yet we in the West see courage, tenacity and other positive qualities in Ukraine.
While in the west we have lost touch with reality, no one wants to die for "the homeland" - why should they, when freedom and wealth seem to be a given here. The Ukrainians, by contrast, have confronted an enemy many times stronger, refused to compromise, and in a situation where our analysts gave Kiev 3 days, they brought the Russian army to its knees.
Of course, I know that Ukraine is not perfect - but nobody is. If any nation can be looked up to and admired now, it is your "xoxol".
They made us understand how naive we were towards Russia and that while we assumed that Russia needed to be negotiated with and compromised with, Ukrainians saw through this game and nipped Russian imperialism in the bud.
I know that it is not yet won - maybe one day Russia will manage to get that Bakhmut, maybe Ukraine will not be able to liberate some territories after all, but it does not change the fact that Russia has lost. Morally, politically and militarily. And it didn't take a mighty NATO, the US and WWIII to do it. All it took was one nation that refused to compromise with evil.
Who is here after Russia did "actually'" invade Ukraine ?
Me
About that...
Tbf the video is still good, it just differs from reality because of some assuptions being made that proved to be wrong. What the video shows around 5:40 was a pretty accurate prediction. The channel obviously can only rate based on what each country has on paper. That the Russian military would suck in so many areas was something we couldn't really know for certain before the war. The general idea/how the dynamics and goals would be in the war were guessed very accurately imo. The Russian forces were simply overrated, and the foreign support for Ukraine underrated. But that isn't something you can predict until it is actually happening. So I still give Binkov props for the video, as it seems like a good prediction based on the circumstances/knowledge we had before the war broke out.
Overall a good prediction but he really kinda botched it when he said "the US would remain largely unphased by the war," lol
I watched this video on May 5, 2022. It is very interesting to see how things have actually played out.