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As a possible follow up to this video perhaps the question of how many experienced troops are being retained in service as, without experienced officers and ncos to train and lead them, large numbers of raw recruits would be a lot less effective.
It is funny when you speak to people from a given echo chamber arguing that the numbers are way off and x side is done already and just waiting for the collapse. I remember sitting with an acquittance in Nov 2022 insisting UA is done in a month who then doubled down in Apr 2023 saying that they are completely out of equipment and they are just throwing bodies at Russia. Obviously endless videos on YT saying Russia is done given the primarily western audience. The mainstream loss estimates (which he has drawn from) have enormous error bars which is the valid criticism that they find but then produce literal propaganda numbers as their source of truth and anything else must be propaganda. The irony is delicious.
@@galactic-guy You think showing arbitrarily selected numbers and still upholding the myth of Russia having more losses is more or less neutral? Come on.
He's been called both for no reason. Admitting that Russia or Ukraine has an advantage in one area, simply makes you, smart I guess. Especially in comparison to the bot naysayers.
@@LanternOfLiberty if you neither like taste of dirt or for example mint chocolate it doesn't mean you have completely unbiased taste. You wouldn't need couple of years to choose what to eat so. What unbias position are we talking about here if it's literally in the name Binkov- most of russian names have "-ov" or "-off" ending.
It happens to most. I watch Weeb Union, Military summary and History Ledgends. All it takes is reporting a positive development(s) and yiu get those comments. It's natural that some people can't be helped, and some also troll like immature children
Everyone's talking how each side will collapse soon, but you can't really predict that. Everything looks stable until it doesn't, it can happen to both sides because of either some random event or a complicated string of events happening to the society and the economy which cannot be entirely analysed (because of lack of available information etc.) that will make you think at first it's random. And hoping something will happen doesn't mean it will happen.
Exactly. I mean just look at Syria. If you go back just a month ago and if you were to tell people what would happen, few would believe you. It was almost accepted that Assad won the war in 2020, and then everything went upside down, within 12 days. When you think you've figured it all out, this timeline just makes an unexpected turn that shuffles the entire board
Syria is a good reminder of that. Basically armies need constant supplies of bullets and food and fuel, and the truck drivers bringing this stuff by definition have transport and wider contact around the theater and are the first to figure out which way the winds are blowing. It's plausible that one day the transport drivers decide to use their trucks to get the heck out of the warzone, and the front line crumbles 72 hours later for lack of supplies.
Hey man, I just want to say the comments on your channel since the war started have been increasingly negative. It's probably bots organizations that want to infulence the public. The large majority of your viewers think your content is great! Keep up the good work!
It is great content. I learned more from Binkov than CNN and Sky News could ever teach. I wonder why they would call Binkov's videos propaganda? Is Binkov not painting a certain side with glowing praise? Is that why? Hmm...
@@usun_politics1033 How is this "one-sided propaganda"? Ahh I see you thought this channel was The Sun and The Daily Mail? I understand why you all appeared in the comments screaming bots. I understand now lmaoo
The lowest paid Russian volunteer soldier is genuinely getting paid more than than a neurosurgeon who spent more than a decade in college and is one of the highest paid occupations in the country. That volunteer salary has only been increasing by the month. The current salary for volunteers is the equivalent of more than $200,000 a year for the average American. The number of potential volunteers who won't take the current salary, but will take it when it increases more is minimal. It's already an outrageously good salary, sans the high likelihood of death or disfigurement. Russia is cratering its currency by printing so much money just to lure in the already small pool of civilians who can fight.
@ you and I both know what you said isn’t true. They definitely may cause minor inflation however there is a massive manpower pool they can pull from at any time. While Ukraine is kidnapping people off the street, Russia is signing them with pen and paper.
we have an absurdly large population, we have al almost 3:1 population advantage with Russia, which has a 4.9:1 population advantage with Ukraine. we could afford to draft kids and send them to war, and because of it we have an entire subset of our culture that is extremely anti-war. some of the greatest musical hits of all time here are anti-war vietnam songs, and we didn't even lose 100,000. different realities. its grim, but it's better for society if young men are able to get work and contribute to the economy, and older men who are closer to retirement and are less productive are sent to the frontline to garrison trenches. i'm sure in the next few years we'll see more mass mobilization in Ukraine, though.
It's because of the demographic distribution. Very few were born in Ukraine in the 90s and early 2000s. Very many of these have also fled the country, as they had the opportunity to do so earlier. Some joined voluntarily early on, and are now dead or disabled. Some are being taken against their will even now, even though they are supposed to be safe. Most likely, if they did lower it to 18, it would not yield all that many more men per month than they are getting currently. It wouldn't change anything on the battlefield, but it would conclusively demonstrate that Ukraine is just about done. In essence, why play your final card if it is not any good? Better to keep it in your hand and try to bluff.
@@ingenparks research and say if you think some US policies inadvertently caused Ukrainians choose to not have as many kids in the 1990es and 2000s 👍 kind of grim topic, rarely discussed
@@chrisjfhelep5095 learn to read. you clearly did not read what I wrote, nor did you comprehend its meaning. Education must be pretty poor in Communist Russia. Learn how to do math.
That’s all well and good regarding numbers, but what about motivation? Morale? Clarity of purpose? The US killed a lot more VC and could’ve sustained more losses, but the US lost the war plain and simple.
those kinds of things are much more important in democratically election nations. Russia only has to worry about economy and manpower levels since they don't allow anti-war sentiment. Russia has already lost double the losses the US took over 10 years- (and possibly more)
Worth mentioning that ARVN losses were pretty substantial, as much as 60% as the VC-PAVN received US forces were there supporting the ARVN rather than being the main boots on the ground
1999 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse 2008 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse 2014 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse 2024 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse
@@Zolotou2604 This isn't really true, the hardest test comes when Russia runs out of reserve funds. They prepared well, which is why 2022 was actually the easiest test. They could throw assets at the problem after all. But that resource is not endless and most of it is now frozen by sanctions.
@@ValkatlolWatching too much CNN Tell that to the 3.2 Million Russian military RESERVES Ukra is out of reserves, if you were smart you would have considered that..Russia still has 3.2 Million reserves on the go to keep NAFO at Bay Use your 🧠 next time
@@willrichterian2985 Since Russia is gaining ground right now, its actually the opposite. Watch Task & Purpose's video on it. He is biased towards Ukrainians but still shows that they have low morale as Russia is currently doing very well
Regardless of which side you want to win there are at least 250K Humans that have died because of this fighting. Closing in on a million that are injured. It's just heart breaking to me. No matter what side they are on their families will mourn their loss, their friends will mourn their loss. Society in general will have lost how many great people who never got a chance. I pray that a peace deal can be negotiated between them.
A Peace deal like Minsk 1 or 2? Which were only necessary because Russia broke all the treaties they had with Ukraine in 2014? Russia peace treaties are worth less than toilet paper. Especially with Russian shortages of TP!. The only real peace will come from Ukraine's victory.
@@GeneralBlackNorway Yeah? I thought Putin wanted for Ukraine something in the ballpark of what he did to Crimea and Georgia. He always says Ukraine broke off the Istanbul peace negotiations because of Western pressure. Sounds to me like Putin didn't want this outcome, Ukraine didn't want this outcome, and the West doesn't mind.
@@aleksandrs1422 It does not matter what Putin wants, the Ukrainians want to decide their own fate and elect their own rulers and make their own alliances. Putin decided to roll in the tanks and start shooting people, he is responsible for what followed.
Russia has a huge problem with military vehicles. It is estimated they the lack of military vehicles is going to impact the battlefield in the end of 2025/beginning of 2026.
Putin has lost sense with reality. He speaks like a man totally unaware of the hardships he puts his country in. There's huge inflation, there's the international backlash by losing Syria and there's a big environmental disaster on Russia's Black Sea shores now. That can't be said from Zelensky.
@artemuaxdnot really military equipment gets constantly repaired by both sides and Russia won’t run out of military vehicles anytime soon, Ukraine has that problem they can’t repair western tanks because they don’t have the equipment to do it , but they can repair soviet tanks
The fact that Russia rather makes deals with countries like North Korea than mobilize more soldiers says something about how much people Putin can send to the trenches. Also keep in mind that Russia cooks the books when it comes to losses a lot, by for example having complete units of DPR and LPR consist of Russians from Russia but then the losses are counted as LPR or DPR losses, not Russian ones. Not wearing any pink glasses about Ukraine but people really underestimate how hard it is to invade a country that wants nothing to do with you. Most Russians don’t give a f about the war as long as they are left alone. That’s not a great recipe for winning a war. Look at Afghanistan for example…
The problem is if Putin takes too many Russian men to fight on the frontline, the country will revolt when too many lose their relatives to the war. Hence why putin relays on North Korea soldiers.
Russia already has a huge problem. They've lost hundreds of thousands men from their potential workforce. Their economy will collapse and they'll be weaker they've been in the last 50 years.
Your point? They've lost easily 200 to 300 000 men from their workforce. That's a fact. Nothing changes that. Russia also has fast aging demographic and falling population. @@pe_akilov3893
All indications are that Ukraine has a CURRENT manpower shortage that is affecting its ability to hold on to front line towns, while there is no indication that Russia cannot continue its current rate of advance along many fronts.
Sure, but what's the answer, freezing the front line as a new border as Trump and Musk want? Granting as-yet-unoccupied land to Putin as a preconditioin for ceasefire talks as Putin demands? Or Putin deciding to pull every last troop out today, and pay reparations for the damage he's caused? Well over half of Ukrainians say the govt should not settle for anything other than this last option. It's not politicians that are determining that Ukrainians fight on. This is the view of Ukrainians themselves.
Considering the artillery, drone, and air power average Russia has, and on the ground manpower, the casualty numbers don’t really make sense. Russia has spent more time on the offensive, so that would be the only factor in Ukraines advantage over the last 18 months of the war.
The Ukrainian manpower issue is dual: First they have to find guys to mobilise, ie drag men dressed as women from the streets, or boys hidden by mothers in their homes. Then, they have to make sure that these men actually get to the frontline at all: anyone with the slightest ammount of money or valuables trade them to get to guard something in Lvov area, very few actually get to the front.
This is why the Ukrainian people are now getting upset. They're listening to things like this where people say ukraine mobilized 1mn , lost 100,000 BUT we also need to keep lowering conscription age because we are running out of troops
Recent body exchange: Russia handed over to Ukraine 503 bodies of their soldiers and got back 42 bodies. Understand what's going on, how used to say Gonzalo Lira.
I would become an advocate for Ukraine about this exact number, cause it shall be mentioned that Russia gaining terrirories and Ukrain fall back, so, most of bodies from both sides are under russian control
The problem of casualties is that oftentimes people treat it like it's some scoreboard Like this is a game of call of duty Where the Ukrainian military Needs to focus on it's KD stats. I think I enough kills him and somehow get a tactic on nuke. The problem is that casualties don't say much about the current trajectory of the war. For example, the Soviet Union took higher casualties during the winter war but still managed to win. During the American Civil War The Union took more casualties than the Confederacy, and still won. People like to look into. casualties to think that eventually one side will just run out of men. But that's not how it necessarily happens in wars of attrition What's more likely to happen is one side loses hope of victory and therefore morale begins to Plummet leading to a collapse of the of the military. In World War One, the Germans never actually ran out of manpower They just lost the will to continue fighting.
Germany also had relatively fewer losses for the majority of WW1 - and managed to defeat the Russian Empire. But it was heavily disadvantaged from the start in numerical terms.
@@RichelieuUnlimitedhe Russian empire part was largly defeated by Bolsheviks, not Germans. Brusilov came up with a tactic that will eventually wain the war for the Entante. So Russia could theoretically be successful long term had the political system been more robust. I think a lot of Ukrainian bets ride on something like that happening again
@@looinrimsUkraine does; but Russia? Who would help them? China? India? Why?? Both countries are taking advantage of Russia being in a weak position, and will probably continue to do so even after this war ends
Because the eu and russia offer better alternatives instead of fighting. Russia gives ukrainian refugees a pension and land. The eu gives them jobs, pensions. Ukraine offers nothing than death
Kursk offensive proved that Russia can and will dig into its conscripts reserves if necessary. Today those 18-20 yo who serve in RAF for mandatory 1 year are not sent to the frontline in Ukraine, instead spread out all over the country. But when Kursk happened almost 20,000 conscripts from the nearby garrisons were called to arms.
this is BS. it is only some border guards troops who had conscripts and was just caught unprepared when urk offensive in kursk region begun. And there were just a few hundreds of them. They were replaced with regular troops in a day or two. If you check which formations participate in kursk operation from russian side, it is an entire paratroopers division, one regiment from another paratrooper division, akhmat volunteers and one brigade of naval infantry. Looks more like one of their best formations to me, not conscripts.
That's literally what being in the army entails, of your garrison is under attack by enemy troops, you are called to arms. The ones who actually fight are volunteers anyway, regular army doesn't have drones lying around, and ukrops are getting shredded by those on their Kursk suicide mission.
Lol four years ago you said Russia could just tap into its population in a war against Finland, Sweden and Norway. Now we are here wondering who will run out of troops first.
Ukraine: we've only lost 350k men in 3 years and killed twice as many Russians Also Ukraine: we need to conscript 200k, but maybe 500k to replenish losses. I know, I know....math is hard
Actually it is rather simple. Ukraine lost 350k men. If the war ends in the next months thanks to Trump, They only need to recruit 200k men to replace the losses as they don’t need as many to finish. If however the war continues another 2 years, they will need to recruit 500k to replace the 350k already lost and 150k they will likely loss in the next 2 years.
@@VonVladimierVoltarThere’s also the added issue of troops simply being worn out. There’s only so much fighting a human can handle in a lifetime before losing combat effectiveness.
@@RichelieuUnlimitedIt will get better if cyborg tech takes off. Imagine if the science fiction “Socket Soldiers” became reality? Soldiers with only their heads being biological and their bodies having a remote control self-destruct in them, destroying potential captures and preventing desertion? Such is an amazing prospect!
Apart from all the mobilisation numbers , the second issue is about equipment repair . Ukraine is almost completely dependent on western equipment. This means any large repair or maintenance operation will need to be done outside of Ukraine. Further reducing the numbers
@ which are pretty ..pretty far away . And apart from the fact Poland cannot repair Turkish/italian/american weaponry because they don’t have the factories to do it is a different story. The only issue with variety is the difficulty of fixing them . Russian losses are very high but most can be repaired and put back in circulation because most of their equipment is standardised and is produced in Russia.
Considering the artillery, drone, and air power average Russia has, and on the ground manpower, the casualty numbers don’t really make sense. Russia has spent more time on the offensive, so that would be the only factor in Ukraines as rage over the last 18 months of the war.
yeah, people don't wanna face the reality that if your enemy outnumbers you in artillery 5, 7, or even 10-1 that you are going to be dying many times more than your enemy.
Simply, Ukraine keep withdrwing troop to avoid more casualties. And the fact that Ukraine is now the upper hand in artillery use make them suffer less casualties. They are sacrifice land (not a good thing) to preserve troops
Russia took many casualties in the beginning due to poor planning and logistics and bad equipment. Russia has overhauled its military and is now more efficient and effective.
@tuongtang8974 upper hand in artillery? Can u pls explain that, like I'm not saying it's not the case I've just not really heard any one make that claim.
7:50 And now we are totally missing one fact, that Russia recruits contract soldiers, while Ukraine have conscripts. Isn't this was the issue 2 years ago with Russian conscripts? Like conscripts are bad, but if it for Ukraine it's good now. Absolute double standard here.
@@ccdsds3221they had a partial mobilization of conscripts after the initial phase of the war after the negotiations fell through but after that it was all volunteers incentivized by big sums of money.
It is not a double standard. You are simply blinded by propaganda. Russian are conscripted for a foreign offensive war. Thus conscripts are bad and not as usefull. Ukrainians are conscripted for a defensive war in their own country.For holding a line that protects their family they are just as capable as other soldiers.
Yeah they have a single generation of working age men left. If that generation is lost the country is gone. The Ukrainians know this, so does Zelensky it's why he hasn't caved to Washington's demands for lowering the co scripting age. Finally it's shows how much Europe and the US cares for Ukrainians that they demand they send that last group of men to the front. Straight evil coming out of the West.
Apart from the uncertainty regarding the number of losses, I think the analysis needs to include material to make sense going forwards. If you can't produce equipment for those future troops, they won't be very effective. Russia has been relying heavily on their old Soviet stockpiles, and they're losing them much faster than what they can't produce entirely new. For Ukraine's part there's a corresponding question of how much material support can be provided by and in cooperation with other nations. I suspect the material question will be more important than the demographic one.
I think this video understates the advantage that Russia has. Don't forget the fact that a large portion of Ukraine's mobilized troops don't even show up on the front line, because they find ways to get out of direct combat. For instance, you have like 50 guys guarding a checkpoint in the middle of nowhere, so that they are not deployed to the front line. Ukraine is unfortunately still one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. Additionally, 100,000, maybe even 200,000 Ukrainian troops have deserted. And thirdly, most men that haven't been drafted are doing everything possible to avoid the draft, such as leaving the country or refusing to leave their house at all. The channel History Legends is mainly how I know this. Finally, we should not assume the numbers of casualties are what Ukraine says they are. The ratio of artillery shells being fired is at least 3:1 in favor of Russia, and so it's quite possible that Ukraine is taking more daily casualties than Russia. Russia's better access to armored vehicles gives their soldiers more protection and mobility than most Ukrainian soldiers. And Russia's far greater use of artillery strikes and air strikes (as well as drone and missile strikes) allows them to pin down Ukrainian troops or knock out Ukrainian artillery, so that they can advance without being hit.
I really hate it when people talk about casualties. That every soldier you ask or gives an interview. They all say that 80% of dead and wounded are from artillery shells or drones. And Russia is 10 to one in favour in artillery shells. Aviation strikes (fabs) and probably drones.
Ps. I have free family members on the Russian site that are fighting since the start of the war. They are still kicking. I myself live in Germany. And my girlfriend comes from Ukraine. Her uncle got mobilised in September and after two weeks he was sent to the front near pokrovsk. In the third week he got injured from an artillery shell. I’m literally tired of these bullshit news.
"Russia is dictating its own casualties" is a huge emphasis that people need to internalize. Casualties do not matter to the Russians nearly as much as it does to the Ukrainians and the Russians are currently fighting the war on their terms. Griding down their enemy to see who folds first and with a 4.9-1 manpower advantage, it will almost certainly be Ukraine unfortunately.
Its gotten worse in recent months now that Putin is rushing to annex as much land as possible before Trump arrives in office. Putin's Russia is sub-human garbage by international standards of basic human decency.
I have supported Ukraine since the beginning but the reality is they don't have the population base to win a battle of attrition against Russia. They will need to give up the conventional fight at some point and fight an insurgency which will reduce casualties and demands on manpower.
Russia is desperate for headlines and willing to throw away thousands of men a day to be able to say they advanced 10 meters along the entire front. Its only hope and strategy is minimizing Western equipment shipments, and it´s going to do whatever it takes to secure breathing room before their economy collapses in the next few months.
@@Stephen-bq4nqFight an insurgency with what? Ukraine barely has any people to fight a conventional war. What makes you think they’ll have people to fight a guerrilla war? Ukraine ain’t Afghanistan. Its population isn’t predominantly young which is crucial at waging a guerrilla war, nor are the Russians like the Americans who held back and tried to gain the hearts and minds of the people. My guess is that the vast majority of people who will fall under Russian control are either pro-Russia or they will simply tolerate Russian rule and keep their heads down.
Not only is he biased but incredibly off. Its like he uses cnn info😂. Its not a question that Russia is brutalizing the "ukrainian"(nato) troops there. Generously speaking its 10 ukrainians per 1 russian(more like 12 or 13 to 1). This kinda obvious since Russia is a superpower, mobilization isnt a problem Russian men are volunteering and its pure propaganda that Putin is strugling to recrute. I watch him from time to time thid youtuber is an absolutely biased propagandist😂!
All the death and for what? Not just this war but all war, if the human race put its effort into being better, better to ourselves, better to others there would be no war and the quality of life for us all would be better. At the end of the day, even enemies are our brothers and sisters. Chinese, Russian, American, we all have the same emotions the same hearts beat in our chests. This is not what should define us, this is the worst of mankind and theres no reason for me to kill you and there is no reason for you to kill me. Such a waste, so disappointing that we are speeding towards our own demise and so few people even seem to care or notice.
@@mikolaz.1865 Don't talk about Vietnamese winning since it is civil war, and the commie won so if you are pro-Ukraine, you shouldn't praise the commies.
Of course Russia's Population is bigger but Ukraines not even close to running out of Troops & I find your confidence strange considering its Russia that had to get Troops from another Nation. The real question is what would Russia do if Ukraine had modern Western Weapons?
Apparently Ukraine has been running out of troops for the last 2 years. But for some reason, Russia haven't been able to steam roll through Ukraine from every direction.
@@doccholo905 Whoever argued they were running out of troops 2 years ago, is an idiot. For a while now, I've argued they're bleeding troops faster than Russia, (hot topic of debate obviously). Heck, don't believe me, believe Ukraine cheerleader extraordinaire, Antony Blinken. Think it was him who gave a presser about how we're committed to providing the weapons, but Ukraine needs to consider lowering the conscription age to 18 so that there will be soldiers to carry them. That comment was earlier this month.
@@wandameadows5736Had to? Russia has received foreign troops. Why would they turn them down? That doesn’t mean they ‘need’ foreign manpower. You’re coping too hard on behalf of Ukraine, they’ve received an eye-watering amount of military aid from the west, with modern fighters, artillery, tanks, and small arms, not to mention several countries taking on Ukrainian troops and training them professionally. The only thing Ukraine even nearly has a monopoly on providing is manpower, and even that is not entirely the case, seeing as thousands of foreigners are fighting for them as well.
@@nathanbean8763Russia is desperate which is why it's using Iran to make it's drones and missiles, China to support it financially and North Korea to supply it with millions of shells and fresh bodies
@@pigscanflyhigh8464 let’s talk about Ukrainian casualties, I live in Ukraine so I know what is happening on ground. The military do not tell people that their to their family member is dead ( they purposefully do not do this) instead they say he is missing and even when people know that their son is dead. I will use one situation for example in Krynki The military said we lost 200 soldiers but 1000 are missing when we know they are dead. In that case there are so many losses that are unaccounted for
Hey Binkov, I’ve really enjoyed your videos over the years. Don’t let all the hate in here get to you, if you read these. You used reasonable estimates and reputable sources (accepting no source is unbiased). Legitimate counter arguments can be made I’m sure but regardless, thank you for the content and have a happy new year!
You are right. Something HAS to change. 1. Vietnam (North) - January 1968 Turning Point: Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War. What Changed: Despite heavy losses, the offensive weakened U.S. domestic support for the war, leading to the eventual withdrawal of American forces. 2. Egypt and Syria - October 1973 Turning Point: Yom Kippur War against Israel. What Changed: Initial Arab successes turned to defeat due to Israeli counteroffensives supported by U.S. military aid. 3. Kuwait - February 1991 Turning Point: Persian Gulf War liberation from Iraqi occupation. What Changed: A U.S.-led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm, decisively pushing Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. 4. Azerbaijan - November 2020 Turning Point: Nagorno-Karabakh War against Armenia. What Changed: Superior drone technology and Turkish military aid shifted the balance to Azerbaijan's favor.
That fact that Russia has LOST Territory in this war is just completely embarrassing. I don’t ever want to hear anyone say Russia is powerful ever again.. resorting to using North Korean troops lol pathetic
Yes. If it comes all the way down to annihilation or mobilise the younger demographic then Ukraine will probably mobilise them. Obviously. The approach shows their superior strategic thinking and positive attitude towards the absolute atrocity that has been inflicted upon them.
You are comparing UAlosses with Mediazona. When Mediazona numbers are taken from first hand accounts from responses of family members, to which they are allowed to know the status of their loved ones. If you use UAlosses then its only those losses that are posted, when its a recorded FACT that Ukraine will not declare their troops as KIA but MIA to avoid paying their death benefits. So UAlosses are taking data from a choked source, while Mediazona is taking it from a tight source. So the multiplier for Ukraine could be much higher due to choked sources.
Ukriane has less restrictions on the press, death notices, social media so it can actually be said it’s easier for people to post about missing and dead than it is for Russians.
Even though Russia is on the offensive they have what? A 5-1 advantage in artillery 4-1 in armoured vehicles and something like 5-1 in drones. Theres no way the Russian losses are as high as Western media claim unless UAF are sucessfully launching HIMARS on high value targets daily. AFRF can simply outproduce NATO and Ukraine, even if the tanks/ ifvs arent as good as their western counterparts they are cheaper and easier, quicker to produce. Also something like 2/3 of disabled Russian tanks are retrieved and repaired compared to the UAF who have to abandon vehicles when the Russians move forward.
Russia has been on the offensive for the vast majority of the war. And obviously the attacking force is going to lose more troops attacking line after line of defensive trenches.
@@earthone4939 yes, but wouldn't the amount of equipment and ammunition in Russia favor as well as much more air support, compensate that ?? or Russians are that bad at war, there is no other explanation
@earthone4939 well here are the numbers it takes about 8 shells fired to inflict a single casualty when fired against troops in the open, and 60 shells to inflict a single casualty when troops are dug in. The average daily shell usage over the course of this war has been 25,000 for the Russians, and 3,000 for the Ukranians. The Russians spend about 65% of the war on the offensive and about 35% on the defensive, and visa versa. Artillery causes about 70% of the casualties in a modern conflict between real armies. So the average casualties the Russians are inflicting on the Ukranians on a daily basis are 387 total when the Russians are attacking and 1563 total when the Ukranians are attacking. For an average daily total of 1,950 casualties. The daily average casualties the Ukranians are inflicting on the Russians are 348 when the Russians attack and 30 when the Russians defend. For a average daily total of 378 casualties. These are average numbers academically but gives you a good understanding of why Ukraine mobilized and deployed 1,950,000 troops when the Russians mobilized and deployed 1,300,000 troops and currently the Ukranians have about 750,000 men in their military, police and militarized formations, and Russia has about 900,000 total deployed against Ukraine.
My coworkers told me that some of their friends were in Ukraine, specifically Kyiv and they barely saw any young men in the streets. At least 8 out of 10 of all the women they've met always tried flirting with them cause all the men are either drafted or dead. If it was up to me I'd have Russia erased from the map, but in 2024 right now it's a little hard to believe the "Russia is running out of this." statements that Western armchair experts have been preaching since 2022. Both countries are scrapping at the bottom of the barrel unless some amazing breakthrough happens from either side, negotiations are the only way to end the war.
Ye ye man, i'm from west Ukraine and almost no one from people i knew was drafted, except those who was in the military at the beginning of the war or went there by their will
@OhDannyboy7 With surveillance drones and fpv drones covering literally every km of the front and even rear, cannon fodder tactics are useless. I imagine you are right in the fact that they will use the Koreans in Kursk so that better units can be freed up and push around Pokrovsk, etc. The Koreans probably agreed to this to learn modern battle experience without being thrown into the deep end + only being on Russian territory gives the West no further pretext for escalation seen as NK and Russia are in a defensive pact and they are acting inline with Geneva convention and international law. I support neither side I support normal people living normal lives without killing each other but I cant see it ending well for anyone. Best case scenario imo is Ukraine concedes the territory that Russia holds, Zelensky steps down and government that favour's moscow is installed.
Manpower isn't the limiting factor for either side. It's equipment and ammo. For Russia that is itself limited by its creaking and weakening economy. For Ukraine it's the willingness of its allies to supply it with aid. Which will fail first? The answer mostly lies in Washington but under the current conditions the Russian economy has a year or so left before it's in major trouble. On the current trajectory Russia implodes and Ukraine wins by default.
Defending is easier than attacking, the stats he had were 2:1 or 3:1 deaths which is actually pretty good stats for russia, not that it means much given they have yet to accomplish as much as theyd hoped
@@NevilleWran6666But what about air superiority... Ukrainians do not have that... Russians constantly bombards frontlines... So acc to my point of view Russians are causing much more casualties on Ukrainians than they themselves are suffering.. although I am not saying that am 100% correct definitely time will tell
The western numbers just don’t add up How Ukraine is recruiting 30-50 thousand monthly and Russia is 10-15 but the death ratio to Ukraine is mad I’m baffled 😯 And now they gonna use why Russia begging N. Korea for troop Ukraine has nato the US and not forgetting the foreignLegion 😂 I’m tired of those western bots
@@peterwolf4230 Not necessarily. I agree that it is a lot more complicated than this. It's not a full blown war for Russia, definitely not. For Ukraine it is, which automatically decreases and raises their recruiting pool respectively. Casualty counts are certainly a concern, but they can't be evaluated properly because this is an ongoing war with propaganda on both sides and almost no unbiased sources. You are likely correct, thought. Ukraine is more likely to run out of troops than russia, and if russia was on the road to running out, they would lose long before.
7:20 the bonus is bigger, because 400,000 is a federal one whereas the regions pay as well up to 3,000,000 rubles (aka 30k dollars) and these numbers will only grow. Under no condition, Russia cannot expect volunteers for lower cost because everybody who wanted to go, have already enlisted before. At the same time, region governors compete between each other on who can attract more vounteers and the only way to do it is to raise this bonus
Actually there are videos of Russian "recruiters" emptying out entire apartment complexes of ethnic minorities. Ukraine is not the only country looking for "volunteers"
@@kaiser3626once one essential thing runs out, it doesn't matter if you have 3.000.000 shells left for your cannon or just 200. Doesn't matter if there were 17 train cars full of recruits coming or 200. Once something essential ends, it's over. The question is: what will it be? And it might be the personnel. But it probably won't be "a bit of this and a bit of that".
If Russia has it so good with hardware and manpower, then why do they need north korean soldiers, ammo and artillery? Iranian and Korean missiles? Then why battlefield footage shows only ancient tanks? If russkies had any kind of decisive advantage why Ukraine still occupies part Russian land in Kursk? If the West continue helping Ukraine Putin will crumble.
North Korea isn’t fighting, they’re there to take notes on modern warfare. Have seen plenty of footage of new tanks, you must be watching stuff only cleared for the public. Forget about the Oreshniks? HIMARS obsolete? Kursk was a short term gambit to try for more funding, it has failed, and it allowed the RUs to take more UKR territory a lot easier
@tkdivb Cause going all in would be the end for russia. Middle eastern gas will come to EU via pipe ending the only thing that russia had going for it.
I remember when the pro-Ukrainian, Western commentators tried to have you believe that Russia was out of missiles and munitions. That they were fighting with shovels😂
They're running out of reserve, but that doesn't mean they're running out of arms. Your smooth brain should read the whole thing better Also, Russia is clearly running out of tanks
Russia will not run out. If Putin orders another partial mobilization, 400,000 men will eventually appear. True they may not be too well equipped, but comparing manpower of Russia to Ukraine is ridiculous. Better to compare the will to use manpower.
Yeah... And if he does order it the country that sorely lacks workers already will just disintegrate and also a popular uprising will tople the dictator.
@@galactic-guy The Ukrainian too. He can order it if things get desperate. He doesn't order it because he always does things in half measures and on the cheap. In 2022, he missed another opportunity to do a proper mobilization of 800,000 troops not 400,000. Had he done that, he would have defeated Kiev.
@@NevilleWran6666 the crashing of the ruble states otherwise, and as it loses value, forced to sell off foreign reserve currencies and generating insane payments to injured soldiers that are getting their payments cut, resulting in possible angered veterans... Yeah, it's not rosy in Russia either.
@7esserakt what were russias winning conditions it set on itself again? oh thats right holding the right bank of the denipro river and kiev. oh and they are not even close to that. you think they are going to achieve this. how long do you think they can hold what they have taken? 10 yrs. well after that they loose it all. lol over time your argument falls apart so hard. i would have bet on ukraine even if russia succeded in 3 day op. after 10 yrs of police ops they would just leave the fkn loosers that they are...
Western casualty reports are certainly not unbiased. As a simple rule of thumb, I swap numbers they give for Russian and Ukrainian losses and get something looking plausible. Since Russia fires multiple quantity of artillery shells of Ukraine and has functioning Air Force, Ukrainian losses must be higher. Only in drone use they are somewhat comparable, with Ukraine publishing more videos. But showing your military tactics also gives valuable information to enemy so is sign of dire need for outside support, which is less pressing in Russia.
Just shooting more artillery doesn’t mean you get more kills, especially when it comes to unguided artillery. Being on defense also makes an enormous difference in trench warfare. Anders Puck Nielsen’s synthesized estimate from a variety of sources that lands at about 80k KIA for Ukraine and something like 175k KIA for Russia, with wider error bars on the latter number than the former.
@@nathanpowell195 Russia >Equipment advantage >Airforce advantage >Artillery advantage >Drone advantage Yet you think Russia has more casualties? Also, if Ukraine has only lost 80k, then why do they need hundreds of thousands of replacements?
@@johnclay2716drone advantage is on the side of the Ukraine. 3-4x more fpv drone hits by Ukraine. Artillery advantage on the side of the Russia is not more. Now it is between 1.5-3x more shells but UA artillery is more modern and precise. Aviation advantage is only reality for RU
@@johnclay2716Ukraine: ISR advantage Quality advantage Accuracy advantage Guided weapons advantage Satellite coverage advantage (the USA supplies their spy satellites) Decentralization advantage (rapid reactions) Supply line advantage (shorter) Training advantage Ground based air defense advantage (yes, this is actually true) And most importantly, minimum exposure because they are dug in to defensive positions that protect them from Artillery and drones.
Well, you're wrong to do that. Ukraine might have less stuff, but they're fighting from prepared positions with significant hard cover. With hard cover, out of every 20 artillery shells that land within the kill range, one on average causes a casualty. Russia isn't fighting from prepared defensive positions. They're in the open. So Ukrainian shells cause a much higher ratio of casualties that actually exceed the casualties caused by Russian shells. More importantly, Russia has lost about 8 times as many armored vehicles and other military vehicles. This is a huge reason for high Russian casualties. Because they have to walk for kilometers to get to their fighting positions. And Ukrainian drones can bomb them the entire time. From hard cover. So yes. You should trust the numbers as they are quoted.
@@keto0303 If Russia was not weak: * they would not make these concessions, * they would not be using low quality North Korean artillery, * they would not have depleted nearly all armored vehicles from storage, * they would not be using NK troops with zero combat experience, * they would not have been defeated on Russian soil in Kursk... I could go on, but the last thing I need to do is to convince myself of Russia's obvious weakness. Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself that Russia is not weak.
@@Mildawg1 The fact that they get weapons from others as well means nothing. They utilize all options available, why not, to get that little extra. Russia has enough of its own stuff, unlike Ukraine. You do know that the West emptied is inventories right? They have liberated 50% of the Kursk area occupied. If Russia is weak in this context, you should know that it reflects back on the West. Btw article 5 was triggered today. What will nato do?
If you jsut use numbers that really does not add up: The Decisive Role of Artillery in the Ukraine Conflict: A Data-Driven Analysis Artillery has become the defining weapon of the Ukraine conflict, responsible for 80% of casualties on both sides. Disparities in stockpiles, targeting precision, and logistical capacities between Ukraine and Russia have created a significant imbalance in outcomes. Key Insights: Artillery Dominance 1⃣ Stockpiles and Effectiveness Russia: 10-15 million shells, with a 5-10% effectiveness rate. Ukraine: 1-2 million shells, with a 1-5% effectiveness rate. 2⃣ Casualty Potential Russia: Capable of inflicting 500,000-1,500,000 casualties, leveraging sustained firepower. Ukraine: Limited stockpiles result in 10,000-100,000 casualties inflicted on Russian forces. 3⃣ Efficiency Ratios Casualty Ratio: 50:1 to 15:1 in favor of Russia, showcasing the stark attrition disparity. How will they inflict these numbers of casualties? With what weapon system?
You're gonna have to do a lot of fast talking to explain 5x effectiveness rate for mediocre russian artillery using often defective North Korean shells. Also the defining weapon for the conflict is most certainly drones of all types.
@@Steamrick LOL...even Soviet arty in ww2 did 60%+ kia/wia vs German units. The Germans did not fear the Russia/USA tanks but their arty/air. 152mm/500lbs bomb did not care about your FOX hole.
@@krispypriest5116 Yeah and Ukraine mostly has old soviet stock so please do explain why it's supposed to be 2x-5x more effective per shell when it's manned by russian instead of ukranian crews
@@Steamrick and why ukranian crews should be better when they recived not that good training and as for nato one 3-4 months is not enough to train effective force take into account that ukraine kiddnaps people from streets not russia
One thing not covered is that Russia has to leave troops else where throughout its country to defend against potential aggression from other countries like NATO etc. It has a large border with many countries it has to man, at least some what. They aren't able to fully send everything they have troop wise to Ukraine. Ukraine however is able to commit almost all of its forces against Russia.
Russia doesn't defend all of it's borders, thus the big push into Kursk. The West crowed about Russia not being able to defend it's border in the middle of nowhere with jo strategic value. And Russia is still pushing them out. Ukraine lost 30k men taking a bunch of woodland
Is that why Russia has withdrawn troops from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border? If NATO was such a big threat that would be the last place they would leave. The threat to Russia's borders does not come from NATO. Try looking elsewhere.
Isn't Ukraine letting those who sign up volunteers pick what/where they go/become. Ive heard people who want to become drone operators pretty much always get that training. Some could consider it the "safest" way to fight
Ok my favourite place from now on is the comment section.... It was some Finnish videos at first, but there the trolls just can't do Finnish, so it is too obvious. But here atleast I have to read the comment to determine if it's a troll. And keep up the work, it is hurting them, hard.
@@TheTacticalRedpillnato doesn't need bots, they have a much larger population than russia, while russia is heavily discredited by their own corrupted mistakes, that's why they need bots
Oh dont worry, Russia is here. But not because they're mad. They are looking at your comments about how "mad they are" and just avin a jolly giggle at it all lmaoo.
@ are the thousands of dead Russians laughing as well? Are the hundreds of thousands of injured, the left over family members all having a good chuckle?
Hey man I haven’t watched your videos in awhile and I’ve missed your content. Could you do a video about Syria and the middle eastern conflicts since a lot of people are focused on Israel and Gaza but have no details unlike Ukraine and nobody knows shit about Syria in the overall community I genuinely recommend looking into both doing analysis of both and doing what you do best. Making great content about war
Do note: Russia currenlty has 1000 males age 18-25 for every 917 females in the same age bracket; Depsite the fact Russia also has a female heavy gender gap, much of this caused by their most elderly generation in WWII. This is the optimal ratio for a nation to wage war, as young males are more disposable, and those who survive the war may have a financial situation better than previos generations. The point, Numbers do not matter that much, Russia has a long history of senseless attritional warfare, and currently has a male heavy generation to sustain it. If the goal of Ukrain is to outsuffer the Russians, might as well waive the white flag now.
Really interesting video. Makes sense. Just looking at the numbers, it doesn’t seem like Ukraine could retake all their lost territory even if NATO fully equipped them. They just don’t have the manpower.
Makes sense only if one does not think about it at all. Six times the population of Ukraine but this moron spins it in favor of Ukraine. Gimme a break. Pretty much every single metric this guy and him alike have put out were wrong so far. Starting with running out of ammo, tanks, airplanes, soldiers, fighting with washing machines, buckets and hammers...etc. Don't fall for this crap.
@@Smile200-z4y Thank you for your response to my comment . I am 61 , from Indiana , and a USAREUR Veteran , 1986 - 89 , I drove , rode , and flew dismount in a Bradley unit . I don't want to move to nor live in Russiya , but , I fully understand West Europen and U.S. corporate MIC aggression against the Russians . And Ukraine is Russiya , inarguably , already for centuries that is reality . Ukranians want us all to believe that they are " Europeans " . But the reality , is that prior to Russiya's 🇷🇺 campagn of defense , ukraine was consistently unable , FOR YEARS , to reach standards to join the EU and NATO , largely , and mostly , because of its corruption at all levels if it's government .
Did Vietnam have to physically have to push the French, US, and Chinese out? Did Afghanistan have to push out the British, Russians and US? In the first Chechan war, did the Chechans push out the Russians. The answer to all if these questions is no. Russia's problem wont lilely be its manpower but its ability to equip and pay its soldiers. If NATO is resolute in helping Ukraine, Russia will have to leave Ukraine.
The west said that Russia was going to collapse in a year and now the only ones collapsing are the German government the French government and the democrats. Russia won’t collapse anytime soon they have the means to continue the war for years.
@michelepappalardo4059 You clearly don't understand how government work in Germany. The old officer collapse in Germany, not the government. Russia will face collapse in term of total downfall and seperatist if putin die one day
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world. Try Ground News today and get 50% off your subscription. It's their biggest sale of the year: ground.news/binkov
As a possible follow up to this video perhaps the question of how many experienced troops are being retained in service as, without experienced officers and ncos to train and lead them, large numbers of raw recruits would be a lot less effective.
I mean it's literally a country with tens of millions against a country with around 150 million. Wonder who would run out first lol.
Absolutely sad, what a meat grinder.
@@Binkov lower draft age, problem solved
@Christs_Apologet but NATO has plenty of
Funny how both sides are claiming this is enemy propaganda.
It is funny when you speak to people from a given echo chamber arguing that the numbers are way off and x side is done already and just waiting for the collapse. I remember sitting with an acquittance in Nov 2022 insisting UA is done in a month who then doubled down in Apr 2023 saying that they are completely out of equipment and they are just throwing bodies at Russia. Obviously endless videos on YT saying Russia is done given the primarily western audience.
The mainstream loss estimates (which he has drawn from) have enormous error bars which is the valid criticism that they find but then produce literal propaganda numbers as their source of truth and anything else must be propaganda. The irony is delicious.
And they both are, just the way it is
Because both sides are heavily biased, they want to hear what they want not what they need.
That means he's doing something right though. If both sides are complaining, that means this video must be more or less neutral.
@@galactic-guy You think showing arbitrarily selected numbers and still upholding the myth of Russia having more losses is more or less neutral? Come on.
People are commenting that Binkov is a pro-russian fanboy AND that he's on the side of Ukraine. I guess that means he is independent and balanced?👍
He's been called both for no reason. Admitting that Russia or Ukraine has an advantage in one area, simply makes you, smart I guess. Especially in comparison to the bot naysayers.
pissing off or glazing both sides doesn't make you unbiased lol
@@guidomista5738 I'm just going to let you rethink that statement. Give it a couple of years.
@@LanternOfLiberty if you neither like taste of dirt or for example mint chocolate it doesn't mean you have completely unbiased taste. You wouldn't need couple of years to choose what to eat so. What unbias position are we talking about here if it's literally in the name Binkov- most of russian names have "-ov" or "-off" ending.
@@guidomista5738 Typically if both sides are upset with you, you are hitting the middle ground. Something that is needed
This is the only channel i’ve ever seen that gets accused by both sides of being a propaganda machine for the other.
It happens to most. I watch Weeb Union, Military summary and History Ledgends. All it takes is reporting a positive development(s) and yiu get those comments. It's natural that some people can't be helped, and some also troll like immature children
Willy Om: hold my beer
Which means its a Mostly reliable source,if it had only one side accusing it of propaganda it would mean its biased to the other side
Ahh yes the famous bot comment section
@@LeeroyGgJenkins borderlanders gotta keep borderlanding
Everyone's talking how each side will collapse soon, but you can't really predict that. Everything looks stable until it doesn't, it can happen to both sides because of either some random event or a complicated string of events happening to the society and the economy which cannot be entirely analysed (because of lack of available information etc.) that will make you think at first it's random.
And hoping something will happen doesn't mean it will happen.
Exactly. I mean just look at Syria. If you go back just a month ago and if you were to tell people what would happen, few would believe you. It was almost accepted that Assad won the war in 2020, and then everything went upside down, within 12 days.
When you think you've figured it all out, this timeline just makes an unexpected turn that shuffles the entire board
Syria is a good reminder of that. Basically armies need constant supplies of bullets and food and fuel, and the truck drivers bringing this stuff by definition have transport and wider contact around the theater and are the first to figure out which way the winds are blowing. It's plausible that one day the transport drivers decide to use their trucks to get the heck out of the warzone, and the front line crumbles 72 hours later for lack of supplies.
When zealots from both sides are accusing you of propaganda, you know you have made a balanced video. Well done.
This is the most normal comment I have seen on here
Hey man, I just want to say the comments on your channel since the war started have been increasingly negative. It's probably bots organizations that want to infulence the public. The large majority of your viewers think your content is great! Keep up the good work!
Amazing that you speak for everyone and anyone that doesn't seem to align with your opinion is automatically labeled as a bot.
Have you considered that it is a backlash to blatant one sided propaganda which is not helpful for the cause?
It is great content. I learned more from Binkov than CNN and Sky News could ever teach. I wonder why they would call Binkov's videos propaganda? Is Binkov not painting a certain side with glowing praise? Is that why? Hmm...
@@usun_politics1033 How is this "one-sided propaganda"? Ahh I see you thought this channel was The Sun and The Daily Mail? I understand why you all appeared in the comments screaming bots. I understand now lmaoo
@@avannoni685 Binkov, turn off the comments, the people have opinions! /s
Ukraine is forcibly mobilizing. Russia only relies on volunteers. Use your brain people.
The lowest paid Russian volunteer soldier is genuinely getting paid more than than a neurosurgeon who spent more than a decade in college and is one of the highest paid occupations in the country. That volunteer salary has only been increasing by the month. The current salary for volunteers is the equivalent of more than $200,000 a year for the average American. The number of potential volunteers who won't take the current salary, but will take it when it increases more is minimal. It's already an outrageously good salary, sans the high likelihood of death or disfigurement.
Russia is cratering its currency by printing so much money just to lure in the already small pool of civilians who can fight.
@ you and I both know what you said isn’t true. They definitely may cause minor inflation however there is a massive manpower pool they can pull from at any time. While Ukraine is kidnapping people off the street, Russia is signing them with pen and paper.
Wild to me that Ukraine only drafts at 25. USA threw 18 year olds into Vietnam.
They have plans to lower it to 20. Also most Ukrainians soldiers wont return home alive or unmaimed after going to hot zones like Donbas.
we have an absurdly large population, we have al almost 3:1 population advantage with Russia, which has a 4.9:1 population advantage with Ukraine.
we could afford to draft kids and send them to war, and because of it we have an entire subset of our culture that is extremely anti-war. some of the greatest musical hits of all time here are anti-war vietnam songs, and we didn't even lose 100,000. different realities. its grim, but it's better for society if young men are able to get work and contribute to the economy, and older men who are closer to retirement and are less productive are sent to the frontline to garrison trenches. i'm sure in the next few years we'll see more mass mobilization in Ukraine, though.
It's because of the demographic distribution. Very few were born in Ukraine in the 90s and early 2000s. Very many of these have also fled the country, as they had the opportunity to do so earlier. Some joined voluntarily early on, and are now dead or disabled. Some are being taken against their will even now, even though they are supposed to be safe. Most likely, if they did lower it to 18, it would not yield all that many more men per month than they are getting currently. It wouldn't change anything on the battlefield, but it would conclusively demonstrate that Ukraine is just about done. In essence, why play your final card if it is not any good? Better to keep it in your hand and try to bluff.
@@ingenparks research and say if you think some US policies inadvertently caused Ukrainians choose to not have as many kids in the 1990es and 2000s 👍
kind of grim topic, rarely discussed
And they still lost to farmers😂
the only unbiased comment is binkov’s pinned comment
Let's just count the number of scooters left in Ukraine vs the number of generals left in Russia
Nice!
Croatian intelligence want's you to think that the side with missle, AA, artillery, EW and glide bomb dominance has more casualties.
Ukraine. They have vastly less population.
but they lose troops at a lower rate too. if Ukraine loses troops at less than 1:3, Russia will run out first.
@@SoloRenegadeThat's not the case, my man. Having more troops is not equal to having more loses.
@@SoloRenegadeNo... just no. This is so wrong.
@@chrisjfhelep5095 learn to read. you clearly did not read what I wrote, nor did you comprehend its meaning. Education must be pretty poor in Communist Russia.
Learn how to do math.
@@SoloRenegadewhen was the last time russia was dragging people into vans? 2023?
The payment bonus starts from 800k up to 2.5mil rubles depending on region, not 400k.
That’s all well and good regarding numbers, but what about motivation? Morale? Clarity of purpose? The US killed a lot more VC and could’ve sustained more losses, but the US lost the war plain and simple.
those kinds of things are much more important in democratically election nations. Russia only has to worry about economy and manpower levels since they don't allow anti-war sentiment. Russia has already lost double the losses the US took over 10 years- (and possibly more)
Worth mentioning that ARVN losses were pretty substantial, as much as 60% as the VC-PAVN received
US forces were there supporting the ARVN rather than being the main boots on the ground
I honestly think this is a fight of Ukrainian lowering manpower vs Russian economy collapse.
Russian economy collapse was expected to many times to come true
1999 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse
2008 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse
2014 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse
2024 - Lmao the Russian economy is about to collapse
pretty much this. But the Russian economy passed the hardest test in 2022, and Ukraine has so many troops that no local collapse is not feeseble.
but.. but... how come Germany the one that collapse
@@Zolotou2604 This isn't really true, the hardest test comes when Russia runs out of reserve funds. They prepared well, which is why 2022 was actually the easiest test. They could throw assets at the problem after all. But that resource is not endless and most of it is now frozen by sanctions.
I would be amazed if Russia ran out of troops before Ukraine. It’s not going to happen.
Morale in the Russian Army is much, much lower compared to that of the Ukrainian army.
Maybe, but the desertion rates that we know of don’t point to that.
@@willrichterian2985 I don't think so, but Russia troop are different bred of pathetic
@@ValkatlolWatching too much CNN
Tell that to the 3.2 Million Russian military RESERVES
Ukra is out of reserves, if you were smart you would have considered that..Russia still has 3.2 Million reserves on the go to keep NAFO at Bay
Use your 🧠 next time
@@willrichterian2985 Since Russia is gaining ground right now, its actually the opposite. Watch Task & Purpose's video on it. He is biased towards Ukrainians but still shows that they have low morale as Russia is currently doing very well
Reddit has 95 million daily users , Ukraine will be fine.
I'm sure you still think this shtick is clever the 9000th time
it's kinda funny ngl @@ArminiusGroß
@@ArminiusGroß It is! Is Reddit where you were from? Land of the blue hairs?
Reddit 69th Mobile Scooter Division "Kamala's Krusaders" is ready to serve the interests of Blackrock and the AIPAC🤫
@valorz6064 you from the land of electric scooters then?
Regardless of which side you want to win there are at least 250K Humans that have died because of this fighting. Closing in on a million that are injured. It's just heart breaking to me. No matter what side they are on their families will mourn their loss, their friends will mourn their loss. Society in general will have lost how many great people who never got a chance.
I pray that a peace deal can be negotiated between them.
Putin is to blame for this.
A Peace deal like Minsk 1 or 2? Which were only necessary because Russia broke all the treaties they had with Ukraine in 2014?
Russia peace treaties are worth less than toilet paper. Especially with Russian shortages of TP!.
The only real peace will come from Ukraine's victory.
@@GeneralBlackNorway Yeah? I thought Putin wanted for Ukraine something in the ballpark of what he did to Crimea and Georgia.
He always says Ukraine broke off the Istanbul peace negotiations because of Western pressure. Sounds to me like Putin didn't want this outcome, Ukraine didn't want this outcome, and the West doesn't mind.
fascinating that more civilians died in Gaza than in Ukraine.
@@aleksandrs1422 It does not matter what Putin wants, the Ukrainians want to decide their own fate and elect their own rulers and make their own alliances. Putin decided to roll in the tanks and start shooting people, he is responsible for what followed.
How can we frame this to make Ukraine look good?
Russia has a huge problem with military vehicles. It is estimated they the lack of military vehicles is going to impact the battlefield in the end of 2025/beginning of 2026.
Putin has lost sense with reality. He speaks like a man totally unaware of the hardships he puts his country in. There's huge inflation, there's the international backlash by losing Syria and there's a big environmental disaster on Russia's Black Sea shores now.
That can't be said from Zelensky.
@artemuaxdnot really military equipment gets constantly repaired by both sides and Russia won’t run out of military vehicles anytime soon, Ukraine has that problem they can’t repair western tanks because they don’t have the equipment to do it , but they can repair soviet tanks
@artemuaxd Yeaaaah the same way they "ran out of missiles"?
Russia is running out of good tanks and will lost influence over Georgia and Africa
China will turn Russia into a lap dog
The fact that Russia rather makes deals with countries like North Korea than mobilize more soldiers says something about how much people Putin can send to the trenches. Also keep in mind that Russia cooks the books when it comes to losses a lot, by for example having complete units of DPR and LPR consist of Russians from Russia but then the losses are counted as LPR or DPR losses, not Russian ones.
Not wearing any pink glasses about Ukraine but people really underestimate how hard it is to invade a country that wants nothing to do with you. Most Russians don’t give a f about the war as long as they are left alone.
That’s not a great recipe for winning a war. Look at Afghanistan for example…
Very true
Zelenskyy said your mom is a whore 😂😂😂 I want you to also believe 😂😂
The problem is if Putin takes too many Russian men to fight on the frontline, the country will revolt when too many lose their relatives to the war. Hence why putin relays on North Korea soldiers.
"The fact" with zero factual proof is not a fact.
@@Mr.Hellerif these simple facts need to be explained, there's no point explaining them to you
Russia already has a huge problem. They've lost hundreds of thousands men from their potential workforce. Their economy will collapse and they'll be weaker they've been in the last 50 years.
3:41 .... .....
Your point? They've lost easily 200 to 300 000 men from their workforce. That's a fact. Nothing changes that. Russia also has fast aging demographic and falling population. @@pe_akilov3893
Interesting take, I can believe the first part on work force but where are you getting the collapsing economy?
TL;DR Both sides are in trouble. Russia has the ability to survive it, Ukraine does not.
@@VikOlliver but the real winners are the Western nations.
All indications are that Ukraine has a CURRENT manpower shortage that is affecting its ability to hold on to front line towns, while there is no indication that Russia cannot continue its current rate of advance along many fronts.
This war has been such an obscene and pointless waste of life.
Which war didnt? All because of Putin..
this
Sure, but what's the answer, freezing the front line as a new border as Trump and Musk want? Granting as-yet-unoccupied land to Putin as a preconditioin for ceasefire talks as Putin demands? Or Putin deciding to pull every last troop out today, and pay reparations for the damage he's caused? Well over half of Ukrainians say the govt should not settle for anything other than this last option. It's not politicians that are determining that Ukrainians fight on. This is the view of Ukrainians themselves.
Considering the artillery, drone, and air power average Russia has, and on the ground manpower, the casualty numbers don’t really make sense. Russia has spent more time on the offensive, so that would be the only factor in Ukraines advantage over the last 18 months of the war.
The Ukrainian manpower issue is dual: First they have to find guys to mobilise, ie drag men dressed as women from the streets, or boys hidden by mothers in their homes.
Then, they have to make sure that these men actually get to the frontline at all: anyone with the slightest ammount of money or valuables trade them to get to guard something in Lvov area, very few actually get to the front.
This is why the Ukrainian people are now getting upset.
They're listening to things like this where people say ukraine mobilized 1mn , lost 100,000 BUT we also need to keep lowering conscription age because we are running out of troops
Recent body exchange: Russia handed over to Ukraine 503 bodies of their soldiers and got back 42 bodies. Understand what's going on, how used to say Gonzalo Lira.
I would become an advocate for Ukraine about this exact number, cause it shall be mentioned that Russia gaining terrirories and Ukrain fall back, so, most of bodies from both sides are under russian control
@@Kemerlin That might be the case, anyway it's good to be careful with information whether it goes from a blogger/media you like or not.
Rest in peace G.Lira
@@joethekinghawk7514piss
if only bots could pick up guns...
They can it's called a drone.
@urskrik6353 strangely, the reddit squads are nowhere near the front 🤔
The problem of casualties is that oftentimes people treat it like it's some scoreboard Like this is a game of call of duty Where the Ukrainian military Needs to focus on it's KD stats. I think I enough kills him and somehow get a tactic on nuke. The problem is that casualties don't say much about the current trajectory of the war. For example, the Soviet Union took higher casualties during the winter war but still managed to win. During the American Civil War The Union took more casualties than the Confederacy, and still won. People like to look into. casualties to think that eventually one side will just run out of men. But that's not how it necessarily happens in wars of attrition What's more likely to happen is one side loses hope of victory and therefore morale begins to Plummet leading to a collapse of the of the military. In World War One, the Germans never actually ran out of manpower They just lost the will to continue fighting.
Germany also had relatively fewer losses for the majority of WW1 - and managed to defeat the Russian Empire. But it was heavily disadvantaged from the start in numerical terms.
@@RichelieuUnlimitedhe Russian empire part was largly defeated by Bolsheviks, not Germans. Brusilov came up with a tactic that will eventually wain the war for the Entante. So Russia could theoretically be successful long term had the political system been more robust.
I think a lot of Ukrainian bets ride on something like that happening again
Both sides have suffered demographic and economic damage that they will not recover from even if the war ends today.
Demographically maybe, but both sides have economic powerhouses that could Marshall plan them
It will have been worth it for Russia if Ukraine dosent get to join NATO
joke is, Russia did this willingly
@@looinrimsUkraine does; but Russia? Who would help them? China? India? Why?? Both countries are taking advantage of Russia being in a weak position, and will probably continue to do so even after this war ends
@@peka2478 and why does Ukriane does? those trillions in minerals on eastern Ukraine will be better if there is no one who charge you to get them. ;)
Why would there be so many deserters if Ukraine is fighting to save their own county?
Half of Deserters are ran to russia
Because the eu and russia offer better alternatives instead of fighting. Russia gives ukrainian refugees a pension and land. The eu gives them jobs, pensions. Ukraine offers nothing than death
If this war doesn’t end peacefully on the negotiation table it’ll end suddenly and swiftly like WWI after one side simple can no longer fight
Ukrainian manpower issues vs Russian economy.
Also , trump is a very important figure
Kursk offensive proved that Russia can and will dig into its conscripts reserves if necessary. Today those 18-20 yo who serve in RAF for mandatory 1 year are not sent to the frontline in Ukraine, instead spread out all over the country. But when Kursk happened almost 20,000 conscripts from the nearby garrisons were called to arms.
this is BS. it is only some border guards troops who had conscripts and was just caught unprepared when urk offensive in kursk region begun. And there were just a few hundreds of them. They were replaced with regular troops in a day or two. If you check which formations participate in kursk operation from russian side, it is an entire paratroopers division, one regiment from another paratrooper division, akhmat volunteers and one brigade of naval infantry. Looks more like one of their best formations to me, not conscripts.
That's literally what being in the army entails, of your garrison is under attack by enemy troops, you are called to arms. The ones who actually fight are volunteers anyway, regular army doesn't have drones lying around, and ukrops are getting shredded by those on their Kursk suicide mission.
Is that why brought in North Korean men?
@@Elgerino There's no proof of them there lol
@@dannydanny2789 copium
Lol four years ago you said Russia could just tap into its population in a war against Finland, Sweden and Norway. Now we are here wondering who will run out of troops first.
In Ukraine alone far more people live than in the northern countries combined, so that makes sense, njet?
@@pimhuisman646 Same for Ontario, Canada, more poeple in Ontario then Sweden, Norway combined.
So many bots
Always, the enemy has an eye that never sleeps
@@shtyrkel bots calling out bots, what a time to be alive
I fkning LOVE this channel. Im the only real person here im sure.
Print(“so many bots”)
@@Honorablebenaiaha okay, Pyhor
Ukraine: we've only lost 350k men in 3 years and killed twice as many Russians
Also Ukraine: we need to conscript 200k, but maybe 500k to replenish losses.
I know, I know....math is hard
Actually it is rather simple.
Ukraine lost 350k men.
If the war ends in the next months thanks to Trump, They only need to recruit 200k men to replace the losses as they don’t need as many to finish.
If however the war continues another 2 years, they will need to recruit 500k to replace the 350k already lost and 150k they will likely loss in the next 2 years.
@@VonVladimierVoltarThere’s also the added issue of troops simply being worn out. There’s only so much fighting a human can handle in a lifetime before losing combat effectiveness.
Troops still in the service need rotation. They have to entrain those skills into NCOs and COs to train the next generation of soldiers.
@@RichelieuUnlimitedIt will get better if cyborg tech takes off. Imagine if the science fiction “Socket Soldiers” became reality? Soldiers with only their heads being biological and their bodies having a remote control self-destruct in them, destroying potential captures and preventing desertion? Such is an amazing prospect!
I have heard that Sergei Shoigu is a popular mathematics teacher in Russia.
Apart from all the mobilisation numbers , the second issue is about equipment repair . Ukraine is almost completely dependent on western equipment. This means any large repair or maintenance operation will need to be done outside of Ukraine. Further reducing the numbers
Well, such repairs ARE taking place, with Poland and Romania I believe doing the most.
@ which are pretty ..pretty far away . And apart from the fact Poland cannot repair Turkish/italian/american weaponry because they don’t have the factories to do it is a different story. The only issue with variety is the difficulty of fixing them . Russian losses are very high but most can be repaired and put back in circulation because most of their equipment is standardised and is produced in Russia.
Considering the artillery, drone, and air power average Russia has, and on the ground manpower, the casualty numbers don’t really make sense. Russia has spent more time on the offensive, so that would be the only factor in Ukraines as rage over the last 18 months of the war.
yeah, people don't wanna face the reality that if your enemy outnumbers you in artillery 5, 7, or even 10-1 that you are going to be dying many times more than your enemy.
Simply, Ukraine keep withdrwing troop to avoid more casualties. And the fact that Ukraine is now the upper hand in artillery use make them suffer less casualties. They are sacrifice land (not a good thing) to preserve troops
upper hand?@@tuongtang8974
Russia has Glide bombs
I think the casualties are.. very equal
Russia took many casualties in the beginning due to poor planning and logistics and bad equipment.
Russia has overhauled its military and is now more efficient and effective.
@tuongtang8974 upper hand in artillery?
Can u pls explain that, like I'm not saying it's not the case I've just not really heard any one make that claim.
7:50 And now we are totally missing one fact, that Russia recruits contract soldiers, while Ukraine have conscripts. Isn't this was the issue 2 years ago with Russian conscripts? Like conscripts are bad, but if it for Ukraine it's good now. Absolute double standard here.
The double standard exists because conscription has not hit WW1 levels yet.
Russia never used conscripts in Ukraine...
@@ccdsds3221they had a partial mobilization of conscripts after the initial phase of the war after the negotiations fell through but after that it was all volunteers incentivized by big sums of money.
@@Silentheaven89 IIRC they were Reserve Soldiers, not conscripts
It is not a double standard.
You are simply blinded by propaganda.
Russian are conscripted for a foreign offensive war. Thus conscripts are bad and not as usefull.
Ukrainians are conscripted for a defensive war in their own country.For holding a line that protects their family they are just as capable as other soldiers.
Ukraine are short of troops but not viable men, they just don't want to mass conscription to keep stability within
Yeah they have a single generation of working age men left. If that generation is lost the country is gone. The Ukrainians know this, so does Zelensky it's why he hasn't caved to Washington's demands for lowering the co scripting age. Finally it's shows how much Europe and the US cares for Ukrainians that they demand they send that last group of men to the front. Straight evil coming out of the West.
If both Russian and Ukrainian fans discredit your video's - youre probably doing well
Noticing the only ones screaming "BOTS! Propaganda!" are the ones that wanted Kamala to win lmaoo
@@valorz6064 So, the Ukraine supporters?
Russia is running out of shovels
We still have tactical forks and kitchen knives, so no worries.
有两个有趣的现象，他们甚至是相关的：
1.为什么每个人都要对乌克兰公布的伤亡数字做大幅修正？
2.俄罗斯兵源不足，却可以不用强制征兵，乌克兰兵源充足，却一再的下修年龄并强制征兵
Apart from the uncertainty regarding the number of losses, I think the analysis needs to include material to make sense going forwards. If you can't produce equipment for those future troops, they won't be very effective. Russia has been relying heavily on their old Soviet stockpiles, and they're losing them much faster than what they can't produce entirely new. For Ukraine's part there's a corresponding question of how much material support can be provided by and in cooperation with other nations. I suspect the material question will be more important than the demographic one.
I think this video understates the advantage that Russia has.
Don't forget the fact that a large portion of Ukraine's mobilized troops don't even show up on the front line, because they find ways to get out of direct combat. For instance, you have like 50 guys guarding a checkpoint in the middle of nowhere, so that they are not deployed to the front line. Ukraine is unfortunately still one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. Additionally, 100,000, maybe even 200,000 Ukrainian troops have deserted. And thirdly, most men that haven't been drafted are doing everything possible to avoid the draft, such as leaving the country or refusing to leave their house at all. The channel History Legends is mainly how I know this.
Finally, we should not assume the numbers of casualties are what Ukraine says they are. The ratio of artillery shells being fired is at least 3:1 in favor of Russia, and so it's quite possible that Ukraine is taking more daily casualties than Russia. Russia's better access to armored vehicles gives their soldiers more protection and mobility than most Ukrainian soldiers. And Russia's far greater use of artillery strikes and air strikes (as well as drone and missile strikes) allows them to pin down Ukrainian troops or knock out Ukrainian artillery, so that they can advance without being hit.
This is the same guy that believed Russia was about to collapse 2 years ago
So yeah... don't take his words at face value
this is the first i hear of any of that, are you sure your sources are based on both sides?
alot of what you said apply to russia
Propaganda nonsense
I really hate it when people talk about casualties. That every soldier you ask or gives an interview. They all say that 80% of dead and wounded are from artillery shells or drones. And Russia is 10 to one in favour in artillery shells. Aviation strikes (fabs) and probably drones.
Ps. I have free family members on the Russian site that are fighting since the start of the war. They are still kicking. I myself live in Germany. And my girlfriend comes from Ukraine. Her uncle got mobilised in September and after two weeks he was sent to the front near pokrovsk. In the third week he got injured from an artillery shell. I’m literally tired of these bullshit news.
I think it's kind of console them to think hundred of thousands russian soldiers have died. They don't care if these figures are true or false.
LMAO, russia is counting t55 tank when used as artillery as artillery. 1 to 10 is such a bullshit metric that was never proven.
@@osinzewa7744 Please go back to russia. thanks
Есть один прикол , можно быть раненым несколько раз и все равно вернуться в строй . А подсчитают два ранения у одного за две потери хехе
"Russia is dictating its own casualties" is a huge emphasis that people need to internalize. Casualties do not matter to the Russians nearly as much as it does to the Ukrainians and the Russians are currently fighting the war on their terms. Griding down their enemy to see who folds first and with a 4.9-1 manpower advantage, it will almost certainly be Ukraine unfortunately.
Why is Ukraine honest?
Its gotten worse in recent months now that Putin is rushing to annex as much land as possible before Trump arrives in office.
Putin's Russia is sub-human garbage by international standards of basic human decency.
I have supported Ukraine since the beginning but the reality is they don't have the population base to win a battle of attrition against Russia.
They will need to give up the conventional fight at some point and fight an insurgency which will reduce casualties and demands on manpower.
Russia is desperate for headlines and willing to throw away thousands of men a day to be able to say they advanced 10 meters along the entire front. Its only hope and strategy is minimizing Western equipment shipments, and it´s going to do whatever it takes to secure breathing room before their economy collapses in the next few months.
@@Stephen-bq4nqFight an insurgency with what? Ukraine barely has any people to fight a conventional war. What makes you think they’ll have people to fight a guerrilla war? Ukraine ain’t Afghanistan. Its population isn’t predominantly young which is crucial at waging a guerrilla war, nor are the Russians like the Americans who held back and tried to gain the hearts and minds of the people. My guess is that the vast majority of people who will fall under Russian control are either pro-Russia or they will simply tolerate Russian rule and keep their heads down.
I don't like people who call Blinkov Biased, all they ever do is just insult him and not doing anything :(
Not only is he biased but incredibly off. Its like he uses cnn info😂. Its not a question that Russia is brutalizing the "ukrainian"(nato) troops there. Generously speaking its 10 ukrainians per 1 russian(more like 12 or 13 to 1). This kinda obvious since Russia is a superpower, mobilization isnt a problem Russian men are volunteering and its pure propaganda that Putin is strugling to recrute. I watch him from time to time thid youtuber is an absolutely biased propagandist😂!
@@RPcroplandDo you actually believe that or just trolling
It’s the internet fella, since 2011 90% of people are just trolling, get over it.
All the death and for what? Not just this war but all war, if the human race put its effort into being better, better to ourselves, better to others there would be no war and the quality of life for us all would be better. At the end of the day, even enemies are our brothers and sisters. Chinese, Russian, American, we all have the same emotions the same hearts beat in our chests. This is not what should define us, this is the worst of mankind and theres no reason for me to kill you and there is no reason for you to kill me. Such a waste, so disappointing that we are speeding towards our own demise and so few people even seem to care or notice.
Ukraine has lost twice as many men as we did in vietnam and theres 10 times more of us. Its a lot of casualties. Very grim reality.
Think about how many vietnamese died and they still won
@@mikolaz.1865 Don't talk about Vietnamese winning since it is civil war, and the commie won so if you are pro-Ukraine, you shouldn't praise the commies.
@@HuyTran-dy3vtRussia Ukraine is basically a civil war as wel though. Interesting argument
@@aleksandrs1422 no its not lol, can't have a civil war if one faction in the country join another nation.
@@HuyTran-dy3vt If South and North Korea fight again, would you call it a civil war? Because Koreans would
Ukraine is literally currently running out of troops.
There. Question answered.
Of course Russia's Population is bigger but Ukraines not even close to running out of Troops & I find your confidence strange considering its Russia that had to get Troops from another Nation. The real question is what would Russia do if Ukraine had modern Western Weapons?
Apparently Ukraine has been running out of troops for the last 2 years. But for some reason, Russia haven't been able to steam roll through Ukraine from every direction.
@@doccholo905 Whoever argued they were running out of troops 2 years ago, is an idiot. For a while now, I've argued they're bleeding troops faster than Russia, (hot topic of debate obviously).
Heck, don't believe me, believe Ukraine cheerleader extraordinaire, Antony Blinken. Think it was him who gave a presser about how we're committed to providing the weapons, but Ukraine needs to consider lowering the conscription age to 18 so that there will be soldiers to carry them. That comment was earlier this month.
@@wandameadows5736Had to? Russia has received foreign troops. Why would they turn them down? That doesn’t mean they ‘need’ foreign manpower. You’re coping too hard on behalf of Ukraine, they’ve received an eye-watering amount of military aid from the west, with modern fighters, artillery, tanks, and small arms, not to mention several countries taking on Ukrainian troops and training them professionally. The only thing Ukraine even nearly has a monopoly on providing is manpower, and even that is not entirely the case, seeing as thousands of foreigners are fighting for them as well.
@@nathanbean8763Russia is desperate which is why it's using Iran to make it's drones and missiles, China to support it financially and North Korea to supply it with millions of shells and fresh bodies
Keep up the good work, Binkov. Judging by the amount of RU trolls in the comments, you're touching them where it hurts.
Its not about trolls, the guy still use stats from western sources (you forgot western sources priority is to inflate russian casualties)
@@Baraxes Why?
@@Baraxesand Russian sources aren't trying to do the same??
@@Baraxes Mediazona is a biased source?
@@pigscanflyhigh8464 let’s talk about Ukrainian casualties, I live in Ukraine so I know what is happening on ground.
The military do not tell people that their to their family member is dead ( they purposefully do not do this) instead they say he is missing and even when people know that their son is dead. I will use one situation for example in Krynki
The military said we lost 200 soldiers but 1000 are missing when we know they are dead. In that case there are so many losses that are unaccounted for
I'm guessing the country with ten times fewer people...?
Gotta remember nato has been funneling troops from other countries since the start
It depends on how many offensives Ukraine go on, as they're usually more costly.
the comments are CRAZY, and 7:4 like to comment ratio is insane
Hey Binkov, I’ve really enjoyed your videos over the years. Don’t let all the hate in here get to you, if you read these. You used reasonable estimates and reputable sources (accepting no source is unbiased). Legitimate counter arguments can be made I’m sure but regardless, thank you for the content and have a happy new year!
You are right. Something HAS to change.
1. Vietnam (North) - January 1968
Turning Point: Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War.
What Changed: Despite heavy losses, the offensive weakened U.S. domestic support for the war, leading to the eventual withdrawal of American forces.
2. Egypt and Syria - October 1973
Turning Point: Yom Kippur War against Israel.
What Changed: Initial Arab successes turned to defeat due to Israeli counteroffensives supported by U.S. military aid.
3. Kuwait - February 1991
Turning Point: Persian Gulf War liberation from Iraqi occupation.
What Changed: A U.S.-led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm, decisively pushing Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.
4. Azerbaijan - November 2020
Turning Point: Nagorno-Karabakh War against Armenia.
What Changed: Superior drone technology and Turkish military aid shifted the balance to Azerbaijan's favor.
Yesterday a russian journalist asked putin when they would take kursk back... he didn't answer the question.
Because it’s pretty much r to taken
He doesn’t know. Putin doesn’t know what’s going to happen. He gave orders to take over Ukraine and is still waiting.
@@Whitebarberian the Koreans 6 feet under say otherwise
That fact that Russia has LOST Territory in this war is just completely embarrassing. I don’t ever want to hear anyone say Russia is powerful ever again.. resorting to using North Korean troops lol pathetic
@@lonemaus562 when was it powerful? They lost to Chechnya in the 90s, they're not a superpower
Can't say I blame the deserters on both sides. Old men start wars and young men die in them.
Only 1 old crazy man started this war, not many.
Actually, most of the men fighting in this war are old. Both sides have been very reluctant to use young men in these wars
Ukraine is committed to protecting the younger generation so they can rebuild the country.
И из-за этого они потеряют страну
lol watch how they start mobilizing the teens in the next few months.
Yes. If it comes all the way down to annihilation or mobilise the younger demographic then Ukraine will probably mobilise them. Obviously.
The approach shows their superior strategic thinking and positive attitude towards the absolute atrocity that has been inflicted upon them.
You are comparing UAlosses with Mediazona.
When Mediazona numbers are taken from first hand accounts from responses of family members, to which they are allowed to know the status of their loved ones.
If you use UAlosses then its only those losses that are posted, when its a recorded FACT that Ukraine will not declare their troops as KIA but MIA to avoid paying their death benefits.
So UAlosses are taking data from a choked source, while Mediazona is taking it from a tight source. So the multiplier for Ukraine could be much higher due to choked sources.
Ukriane has less restrictions on the press, death notices, social media so it can actually be said it’s easier for people to post about missing and dead than it is for Russians.
Written this before I have seen the video. This is exactly what I wanted an update on, thank you
Even though Russia is on the offensive they have what? A 5-1 advantage in artillery 4-1 in armoured vehicles and something like 5-1 in drones. Theres no way the Russian losses are as high as Western media claim unless UAF are sucessfully launching HIMARS on high value targets daily. AFRF can simply outproduce NATO and Ukraine, even if the tanks/ ifvs arent as good as their western counterparts they are cheaper and easier, quicker to produce. Also something like 2/3 of disabled Russian tanks are retrieved and repaired compared to the UAF who have to abandon vehicles when the Russians move forward.
...and other delusional things you can tell yourself
@@dankasscrow6121you are the one that's delusional thinking Ukraine is still winning either way Russia can out last Ukraine
Russia has been on the offensive for the vast majority of the war. And obviously the attacking force is going to lose more troops attacking line after line of defensive trenches.
@@earthone4939 yes, but wouldn't the amount of equipment and ammunition in Russia favor as well as much more air support, compensate that ??
or Russians are that bad at war, there is no other explanation
@earthone4939 well here are the numbers it takes about 8 shells fired to inflict a single casualty when fired against troops in the open, and 60 shells to inflict a single casualty when troops are dug in.
The average daily shell usage over the course of this war has been 25,000 for the Russians, and 3,000 for the Ukranians.
The Russians spend about 65% of the war on the offensive and about 35% on the defensive, and visa versa.
Artillery causes about 70% of the casualties in a modern conflict between real armies.
So the average casualties the Russians are inflicting on the Ukranians on a daily basis are 387 total when the Russians are attacking and 1563 total when the Ukranians are attacking. For an average daily total of 1,950 casualties.
The daily average casualties the Ukranians are inflicting on the Russians are 348 when the Russians attack and 30 when the Russians defend. For a average daily total of 378 casualties.
These are average numbers academically but gives you a good understanding of why Ukraine mobilized and deployed 1,950,000 troops when the Russians mobilized and deployed 1,300,000 troops and currently the Ukranians have about 750,000 men in their military, police and militarized formations, and Russia has about 900,000 total deployed against Ukraine.
My coworkers told me that some of their friends were in Ukraine, specifically Kyiv and they barely saw any young men in the streets. At least 8 out of 10 of all the women they've met always tried flirting with them cause all the men are either drafted or dead. If it was up to me I'd have Russia erased from the map, but in 2024 right now it's a little hard to believe the "Russia is running out of this." statements that Western armchair experts have been preaching since 2022. Both countries are scrapping at the bottom of the barrel unless some amazing breakthrough happens from either side, negotiations are the only way to end the war.
Ye ye man, i'm from west Ukraine and almost no one from people i knew was drafted, except those who was in the military at the beginning of the war or went there by their will
On contrary UA soldiers are annoyed to see when they are on leave, all of the young men frolicking around, who have not yet been drafted.
Maybe ask ukrainians themselves?
- no mention of north korea
- a full graph of total monthly recruits & casualties since the beginning of the full invasion would've been nice
The jury is still out on North Korean troops.
North Koreans are there to gain experience at most, Russia knows deploying them to Ukraine would be more detrimental that beneficial.
@@YorkshireFlea Probably also means they can serve as cannon fodder in Kursk while Russian troops can continue offensive elsewhere.
@OhDannyboy7 With surveillance drones and fpv drones covering literally every km of the front and even rear, cannon fodder tactics are useless. I imagine you are right in the fact that they will use the Koreans in Kursk so that better units can be freed up and push around Pokrovsk, etc. The Koreans probably agreed to this to learn modern battle experience without being thrown into the deep end + only being on Russian territory gives the West no further pretext for escalation seen as NK and Russia are in a defensive pact and they are acting inline with Geneva convention and international law. I support neither side I support normal people living normal lives without killing each other but I cant see it ending well for anyone. Best case scenario imo is Ukraine concedes the territory that Russia holds, Zelensky steps down and government that favour's moscow is installed.
@@OhDannyboy7 What are the NK troops learning about ew and drone warfare from the Russians is the main thing I would be worried about.
The real question is how long can putin avoid windows
He dont use Microsoft..
@@papameredith5644 RusOS
Thank You Commissar. The calculus is grim, but your best analyses are always sincerely appreciated.
😕👍🏽👍🏽
Manpower isn't the limiting factor for either side. It's equipment and ammo. For Russia that is itself limited by its creaking and weakening economy. For Ukraine it's the willingness of its allies to supply it with aid. Which will fail first? The answer mostly lies in Washington but under the current conditions the Russian economy has a year or so left before it's in major trouble. On the current trajectory Russia implodes and Ukraine wins by default.
Yes... sanctions are working... and Russia ran out of missiles in 2022
@@marxfelix3973 23% interest rates... something is definitely working.
How you do have less losses and no air supremacy 🤨
Defending is easier than attacking, the stats he had were 2:1 or 3:1 deaths which is actually pretty good stats for russia, not that it means much given they have yet to accomplish as much as theyd hoped
@@thelegendaryck 3:1 is actually the standard loss rate when on the offensive (attack). One of the 4 phases of war.
@@NevilleWran6666But what about air superiority... Ukrainians do not have that... Russians constantly bombards frontlines... So acc to my point of view Russians are causing much more casualties on Ukrainians than they themselves are suffering.. although I am not saying that am 100% correct definitely time will tell
No it is not. Especially not when the attacking side has firepower superiority like the Russians have.
The western numbers just don’t add up
How Ukraine is recruiting 30-50 thousand monthly and Russia is 10-15 but the death ratio to Ukraine is mad I’m baffled 😯
And now they gonna use why Russia begging N. Korea for troop
Ukraine has nato the US and not forgetting the foreignLegion 😂
I’m tired of those western bots
I'm guessing the country with the smallest population will run out first
Not always true. Casualty rates matter a lot and it's very likely that Russia is losing more troops because they are on the offensive.
@@Just_a_turtle_chad NATO is about to launch campaigns
@@Honorablebenaiaha nato aint going to be involved. ukraine will still fight on their own
@@peterwolf4230 Not necessarily.
I agree that it is a lot more complicated than this. It's not a full blown war for Russia, definitely not. For Ukraine it is, which automatically decreases and raises their recruiting pool respectively.
Casualty counts are certainly a concern, but they can't be evaluated properly because this is an ongoing war with propaganda on both sides and almost no unbiased sources. You are likely correct, thought.
Ukraine is more likely to run out of troops than russia, and if russia was on the road to running out, they would lose long before.
That's what the Persians thought
Depends on whether Zelenski is willing to draft people from 18 to 25 years old.
7:20 the bonus is bigger, because 400,000 is a federal one whereas the regions pay as well up to 3,000,000 rubles (aka 30k dollars) and these numbers will only grow. Under no condition, Russia cannot expect volunteers for lower cost because everybody who wanted to go, have already enlisted before. At the same time, region governors compete between each other on who can attract more vounteers and the only way to do it is to raise this bonus
well the russains don´t need to "mobilize" "volunteers" from the streets...thats explains a lot who is running out of manpower
There are a lot of videos of soldiers snatching people off the streets to send them to the front, and none of those are Russian
Actually there are videos of Russian "recruiters" emptying out entire apartment complexes of ethnic minorities. Ukraine is not the only country looking for "volunteers"
@@rayzerot must be video from UA "recruiters" then haven't seen such video from russia on social media yet
No they just need to empty their prisons
@@rayzerotactually that video was about illegal migrants from Tajikistan
It's a stupid question, neither side will run out, that's not what will decide war
It is a war of attrition.
So yes, manpower loses will decide the result of the war besides many other factors, but it is a very important one.
@@kaiser3626once one essential thing runs out, it doesn't matter if you have 3.000.000 shells left for your cannon or just 200. Doesn't matter if there were 17 train cars full of recruits coming or 200.
Once something essential ends, it's over.
The question is: what will it be?
And it might be the personnel.
But it probably won't be "a bit of this and a bit of that".
If Russia has it so good with hardware and manpower, then why do they need north korean soldiers, ammo and artillery? Iranian and Korean missiles? Then why battlefield footage shows only ancient tanks? If russkies had any kind of decisive advantage why Ukraine still occupies part Russian land in Kursk? If the West continue helping Ukraine Putin will crumble.
North Korea isn’t fighting, they’re there to take notes on modern warfare. Have seen plenty of footage of new tanks, you must be watching stuff only cleared for the public. Forget about the Oreshniks? HIMARS obsolete? Kursk was a short term gambit to try for more funding, it has failed, and it allowed the RUs to take more UKR territory a lot easier
Cause Putin is running this war in handgloves. There is no martial law, no stare of war, no war economy in Russia. So, politics is answer.
@tkdivb Cause going all in would be the end for russia. Middle eastern gas will come to EU via pipe ending the only thing that russia had going for it.
@@frolicsomgaietyDead people can't take notes, can they?
rusia will run out of a bunch of other stuff that they need far before troops
I remember when the pro-Ukrainian, Western commentators tried to have you believe that Russia was out of missiles and munitions. That they were fighting with shovels😂
They're running out of reserve, but that doesn't mean they're running out of arms. Your smooth brain should read the whole thing better
Also, Russia is clearly running out of tanks
@@tuongtang8974lol coping troll
@@Siwanosoweto You are the pathetic troll lol. 3 years of coping.
Waarom denk je dat NK & iran wapens leveren aan rusland? Lol
Right. Howerver, surely earing into your strategic mothballed armoured fleets, and using Iranian/DPRK ammo and soldiers is not a good sign either.
Russia will not run out. If Putin orders another partial mobilization, 400,000 men will eventually appear. True they may not be too well equipped, but comparing manpower of Russia to Ukraine is ridiculous. Better to compare the will to use manpower.
There's a reason he hasn't order another mobilisation though. The russian economy is fragile enough as it is
Yeah... And if he does order it the country that sorely lacks workers already will just disintegrate and also a popular uprising will tople the dictator.
@@galactic-guy The Ukrainian too. He can order it if things get desperate. He doesn't order it because he always does things in half measures and on the cheap. In 2022, he missed another opportunity to do a proper mobilization of 800,000 troops not 400,000. Had he done that, he would have defeated Kiev.
@@galactic-guy I think their economy is doing fine, they are busting the sanctions via countries like India.
@@NevilleWran6666 the crashing of the ruble states otherwise, and as it loses value, forced to sell off foreign reserve currencies and generating insane payments to injured soldiers that are getting their payments cut, resulting in possible angered veterans...
Yeah, it's not rosy in Russia either.
Who is going to run out of troops first....the country dragging men off the street at gunpoint.
Thats both of them lmao. But at least Ukraine hasn't kidnapped 200+ nepalese and 94 Indians with the kidnapped being aged up to 65.
@@mikhailshaikh519nope, Russia isn't doing that on a wide scale like Ukraine is 😊
Nope, only Ukraine.
@@mikhailshaikh519 🤦♂️
@@dankovskimark4540 So arrested demonstrators in Russia were not given mobilisation papers whilst under arrest?
Russia does not have the legions. Prity simple.
@7esserakt what were russias winning conditions it set on itself again? oh thats right holding the right bank of the denipro river and kiev. oh and they are not even close to that. you think they are going to achieve this. how long do you think they can hold what they have taken? 10 yrs. well after that they loose it all. lol over time your argument falls apart so hard. i would have bet on ukraine even if russia succeded in 3 day op. after 10 yrs of police ops they would just leave the fkn loosers that they are...
Western casualty reports are certainly not unbiased. As a simple rule of thumb, I swap numbers they give for Russian and Ukrainian losses and get something looking plausible. Since Russia fires multiple quantity of artillery shells of Ukraine and has functioning Air Force, Ukrainian losses must be higher. Only in drone use they are somewhat comparable, with Ukraine publishing more videos. But showing your military tactics also gives valuable information to enemy so is sign of dire need for outside support, which is less pressing in Russia.
Just shooting more artillery doesn’t mean you get more kills, especially when it comes to unguided artillery. Being on defense also makes an enormous difference in trench warfare. Anders Puck Nielsen’s synthesized estimate from a variety of sources that lands at about 80k KIA for Ukraine and something like 175k KIA for Russia, with wider error bars on the latter number than the former.
@@nathanpowell195 Russia
>Equipment advantage
>Airforce advantage
>Artillery advantage
>Drone advantage
Yet you think Russia has more casualties?
Also, if Ukraine has only lost 80k, then why do they need hundreds of thousands of replacements?
@@johnclay2716drone advantage is on the side of the Ukraine. 3-4x more fpv drone hits by Ukraine.
Artillery advantage on the side of the Russia is not more. Now it is between 1.5-3x more shells but UA artillery is more modern and precise. Aviation advantage is only reality for RU
@@johnclay2716Ukraine:
ISR advantage
Quality advantage
Accuracy advantage
Guided weapons advantage
Satellite coverage advantage (the USA supplies their spy satellites)
Decentralization advantage (rapid reactions)
Supply line advantage (shorter)
Training advantage
Ground based air defense advantage (yes, this is actually true)
And most importantly, minimum exposure because they are dug in to defensive positions that protect them from Artillery and drones.
Well, you're wrong to do that. Ukraine might have less stuff, but they're fighting from prepared positions with significant hard cover.
With hard cover, out of every 20 artillery shells that land within the kill range, one on average causes a casualty.
Russia isn't fighting from prepared defensive positions. They're in the open. So Ukrainian shells cause a much higher ratio of casualties that actually exceed the casualties caused by Russian shells.
More importantly, Russia has lost about 8 times as many armored vehicles and other military vehicles. This is a huge reason for high Russian casualties. Because they have to walk for kilometers to get to their fighting positions. And Ukrainian drones can bomb them the entire time. From hard cover.
So yes. You should trust the numbers as they are quoted.
Also Russia could potentially, without political cost, buy 10s thousands of troops from North Korea.
I saw some rumors a few weeks ago about Russia asking for 100K more from NK. Seems possible.
The russian shill are still saying those northkorean looking guys in the battlefield are just russian who happen to look like northkoreans.
It isn’t free either. Russia is paying a lot these days
@@mr.politics1388 I said politically free. It isn't going to cause the Russian people to remove Putin from power.
The margins of error being in the hundreds of thousands is so annoying.
How are we supposed to learn anything from such bad data?
Sadly, you need to wait like 10 years (at least) for accurate data to be uncovered :(
@@cooolek2126 Probably never... People still arguing over Dresden, Great Leap forward, Iraq, etc. all with 50%+ error bars.
Putin's desperate concession yesterday that he is prepared to concede in a ceasefire underscores how pathetically weak Russia is right now.
Concede to what? He has said for a long time that he is interested in a settlement. Try to convince yourself that Russia is weak.
😂😂😂
bro got his news from his other nafo friends
@@keto0303 If Russia was not weak:
* they would not make these concessions,
* they would not be using low quality North Korean artillery,
* they would not have depleted nearly all armored vehicles from storage,
* they would not be using NK troops with zero combat experience,
* they would not have been defeated on Russian soil in Kursk...
I could go on, but the last thing I need to do is to convince myself of Russia's obvious weakness. Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself that Russia is not weak.
If you have a brain, you'll educate yourself and know why Russia invaded Ukraine.
@@Mildawg1 The fact that they get weapons from others as well means nothing. They utilize all options available, why not, to get that little extra. Russia has enough of its own stuff, unlike Ukraine. You do know that the West emptied is inventories right? They have liberated 50% of the Kursk area occupied. If Russia is weak in this context, you should know that it reflects back on the West. Btw article 5 was triggered today. What will nato do?
In wars there are only two things dead meat 🍖 and fresh meat 🍖.
If you jsut use numbers that really does not add up:
The Decisive Role of Artillery in the Ukraine Conflict: A Data-Driven Analysis
Artillery has become the defining weapon of the Ukraine conflict, responsible for 80% of casualties on both sides. Disparities in stockpiles, targeting precision, and logistical capacities between Ukraine and Russia have created a significant imbalance in outcomes.
Key Insights: Artillery Dominance
1⃣ Stockpiles and Effectiveness
Russia: 10-15 million shells, with a 5-10% effectiveness rate.
Ukraine: 1-2 million shells, with a 1-5% effectiveness rate.
2⃣ Casualty Potential
Russia: Capable of inflicting 500,000-1,500,000 casualties, leveraging sustained firepower.
Ukraine: Limited stockpiles result in 10,000-100,000 casualties inflicted on Russian forces.
3⃣ Efficiency Ratios
Casualty Ratio: 50:1 to 15:1 in favor of Russia, showcasing the stark attrition disparity.
How will they inflict these numbers of casualties? With what weapon system?
You're gonna have to do a lot of fast talking to explain 5x effectiveness rate for mediocre russian artillery using often defective North Korean shells.
Also the defining weapon for the conflict is most certainly drones of all types.
@@Steamrickcope
@@Steamrick LOL...even Soviet arty in ww2 did 60%+ kia/wia vs German units. The Germans did not fear the Russia/USA tanks but their arty/air. 152mm/500lbs bomb did not care about your FOX hole.
@@krispypriest5116 Yeah and Ukraine mostly has old soviet stock so please do explain why it's supposed to be 2x-5x more effective per shell when it's manned by russian instead of ukranian crews
@@Steamrick and why ukranian crews should be better when they recived not that good training and as for nato one 3-4 months is not enough to train effective force take into account that ukraine kiddnaps people from streets not russia
One thing not covered is that Russia has to leave troops else where throughout its country to defend against potential aggression from other countries like NATO etc. It has a large border with many countries it has to man, at least some what. They aren't able to fully send everything they have troop wise to Ukraine. Ukraine however is able to commit almost all of its forces against Russia.
And they’re still losing ground
Russia doesn't defend all of it's borders, thus the big push into Kursk. The West crowed about Russia not being able to defend it's border in the middle of nowhere with jo strategic value. And Russia is still pushing them out. Ukraine lost 30k men taking a bunch of woodland
Is that why Russia has withdrawn troops from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border? If NATO was such a big threat that would be the last place they would leave.
The threat to Russia's borders does not come from NATO. Try looking elsewhere.
Isn't Ukraine letting those who sign up volunteers pick what/where they go/become. Ive heard people who want to become drone operators pretty much always get that training. Some could consider it the "safest" way to fight
even a cook can be sent to fight, recruiters will say anything to get you to serve
just saying
The bots in the comments are unreal here lmao. Is anyone even real? 🤣
Dead internet theory became real faster than anyone expected lol
My question is, why does a military analyst have a picture of Captain Picard on his wall? These are the real questions to ask
It is honestly shocking.
I like to give the benefit of the doubt to folk, but holy shit it's super noticeable.
Beep boop I am real human.
@@JourneysADRIFT they are to busy running the bot army to actually fight. That's why they brought in the koreans!
Year 3 of the 3 day special operation soon
Ok who said it was only going to be a 3 day Op?
@@NevilleWran6666 Our great leader Putin
@@altrshakib9449 our?
@@altrshakib9449 show me the clip saying that
This have been proven false information over and over but the sheep still believe to the western corporate medias propaganda 🤦🏻♂️🤣😊
Ok my favourite place from now on is the comment section.... It was some Finnish videos at first, but there the trolls just can't do Finnish, so it is too obvious. But here atleast I have to read the comment to determine if it's a troll.
And keep up the work, it is hurting them, hard.
English please.
@dudeonyoutube Sorry, I corrected my language
Russian bots have been trained on Binkov's videos for awhile now. He really strikes a nerve in them LOL
They come is swarms as soon as the release happens
The nato bots clearly as well.
@@TheTacticalRedpillnato doesn't need bots, they have a much larger population than russia, while russia is heavily discredited by their own corrupted mistakes, that's why they need bots
Oh dont worry, Russia is here. But not because they're mad. They are looking at your comments about how "mad they are" and just avin a jolly giggle at it all lmaoo.
@ are the thousands of dead Russians laughing as well? Are the hundreds of thousands of injured, the left over family members all having a good chuckle?
Hey man
I haven’t watched your videos in awhile and I’ve missed your content.
Could you do a video about Syria and the middle eastern conflicts since a lot of people are focused on Israel and Gaza but have no details unlike Ukraine and nobody knows shit about Syria in the overall community
I genuinely recommend looking into both doing analysis of both and doing what you do best. Making great content about war
Do note: Russia currenlty has 1000 males age 18-25 for every 917 females in the same age bracket; Depsite the fact Russia also has a female heavy gender gap, much of this caused by their most elderly generation in WWII. This is the optimal ratio for a nation to wage war, as young males are more disposable, and those who survive the war may have a financial situation better than previos generations.
The point, Numbers do not matter that much, Russia has a long history of senseless attritional warfare, and currently has a male heavy generation to sustain it. If the goal of Ukrain is to outsuffer the Russians, might as well waive the white flag now.
Really interesting video. Makes sense. Just looking at the numbers, it doesn’t seem like Ukraine could retake all their lost territory even if NATO fully equipped them. They just don’t have the manpower.
I agree with you , ' been thinking the same for at least one year .
Makes sense only if one does not think about it at all. Six times the population of Ukraine but this moron spins it in favor of Ukraine. Gimme a break. Pretty much every single metric this guy and him alike have put out were wrong so far. Starting with running out of ammo, tanks, airplanes, soldiers, fighting with washing machines, buckets and hammers...etc. Don't fall for this crap.
Russia seems to be running out of armored vehicles fast though
@@Smile200-z4y
Thank you for your response to my comment . I am 61 , from Indiana , and a USAREUR Veteran , 1986 - 89 , I drove , rode , and flew dismount in a Bradley unit .
I don't want to move to nor live in Russiya , but , I fully understand West Europen and U.S. corporate MIC aggression against the Russians .
And Ukraine is Russiya , inarguably , already for centuries that is reality .
Ukranians want us all to believe that they are " Europeans " . But the reality , is that prior to Russiya's 🇷🇺 campagn of defense , ukraine was consistently unable , FOR YEARS , to reach standards to join the EU and NATO , largely , and mostly , because of its corruption at all levels if it's government .
Did Vietnam have to physically have to push the French, US, and Chinese out? Did Afghanistan have to push out the British, Russians and US? In the first Chechan war, did the Chechans push out the Russians.
The answer to all if these questions is no. Russia's problem wont lilely be its manpower but its ability to equip and pay its soldiers. If NATO is resolute in helping Ukraine, Russia will have to leave Ukraine.
Russia always has the option of conscription, in theory at least
Looking at the comments you seemed to piss off bith sides. That speaks heavily for the quality of your work. Keep it up
Ukraine. This isn't a question. Russia's first failure point would be economy or political will.
The west said that Russia was going to collapse in a year and now the only ones collapsing are the German government the French government and the democrats.
Russia won’t collapse anytime soon they have the means to continue the war for years.
@michelepappalardo4059 You clearly don't understand how government work in Germany. The old officer collapse in Germany, not the government. Russia will face collapse in term of total downfall and seperatist if putin die one day
@@tuongtang8974 Sure, keep us informed with your infinitely valuable input on the intricacies of Russia
Grim, yet informative