If this channel continues to push towards being the hans show then I'm gonna unsubscribe. Another thing Hans isn't considering is not only the lack of a driver caused but the lower cost of electricity... Eventually you can have 18 wheelers with solar panels all over the entire back end charging up batteries that are stored on board so when a trailer is sitting for multiple days in a parking lot baking in the sun it is charging up the battery to be used to minimize the weight of the load to increase the range... Plus it has regenerative braking and the ability to be a refrigeration unit that runs off of electricity.
Will the US interior states see a renaissance in tourism as the majority of Americans start using robotaxi to cross multiple states during 5-7 day travel trips? Anywhere within a 12Hr robotaxi ride would be worth the overnight ride and avoiding the airport experience. Disrupt interstate airline industry? Thoughts?
Personally, this, while interesting and probable, I doubt will find any sort of mass adoption. Sounds like the kind of activity for an adventurous soul. Even if the numbers look good on paper, Will most people really be that adventurous? Am I being too cynical? You painted beautiful picture!
@@rodballou5838 commercial airliners can do this TODAY, but they don’t. Ask why and you’ll have a partial answer as to why full autonomous driving won’t ever happen at the scale most are talking about it.
EVs are already cheaper than others as we speak, you can buy a decent used tesla for 20-30k, which comparatively speaking is insane ! EVs are just so much better and durable than gas/diesel vehicles. The problem is human ignorance and stupidity, and a bad economy!
Jevons paradox will come into play with the robo taxi. Instead of using public transport people will use a robo taxi. This will mean a big increase in the number of vehicles on the road which will mean more traffic jams which implies an increase in demand for tunnels for roads!
If full self driving vehicles are the only ones allowed in roads and it’s mandated that there’s a uniform standard in place in order for them to communicate with each other and one another and understand, that will almost certainly guarantee that traffic jams and congestions will be eliminated. For one, it will eliminate rubber necker traffic, it will eliminate situations where traffic gets congested into a bottleneck, it will eliminate road rage and delays due to accidents resulting from road rage, etc. there’s still a chance traffic could happen due to a failure in that standard communication, but otherwise traffic jams will be history.
It's difficult to predict details as there are multiple variables. Autonomy may mean more people taking trips, but it may also mean far less urban space devoted to parking, which means infill construction can make more goods and services available within an easy walking distance for most people, reducing trips. In some urban centers 30% of traffic is just people circling around looking for a parking spot, so in these places autonomy could significantly reduce automotive traffic. But then as urban areas become more livable more people may move to these places, increasing traffic. In any case, I do think tunnels could greatly ease a great deal of traffic in urban areas, and if they can be bored cheaply enough they would have significant environmental advantages in many rural areas as well due to the way that roads with large amounts of fast traffic affect wildlife among other things. Then of course in some regions they would also make transportation far more reliable in extreme weather events.
I agree. Unfortunately, it seems Toby Seba ignored Jevons Paradox when he concluded that robotaxis would entice most people to give up private car ownership to use robotaxis. There are some studies that show when Uber is running in a city, use of public transport in the city drops, presumably because people decide to pay more to use a convenient Uber rather than pay less to use less convenient public transport. There are examples of many humans choosing to pay more for convenience. One example is people paying for the convenience of home-delivery of cooked food rather than the cheaper and less convenient option of cooking food at home. My assumption is that something similar with happen when robotaxis arrive: many affluent people will choose the more convenient but more expensive option of private car ownership over using robotaxis (so robotaxis won't cannibalize private car ownership much), while many less affluent people will those the more convenient but more expensive option of using robotaxis over using cheaper but less convenient public transport.
Here is my hope. I want my Optimus to call a robotaxi, get my order from Chipolte after swinging by Dillons/Wal-mart for groceries and picking up my Rx. I will still want the cybertruck to pull my camper to the lake while my other optimus is working my job as a pressure washer driving my current Ram 1500 with washing trailer setup. Why would I wan't to limit myself to only one thing. Don't forget that the boring company can put the fast lanes below the existing highway system for frieght so highway travel is less congested.
How will they handle the vandals like the ones graffitiing the Waymo? Elon is baiting them. I would never let my FSD car loose in the US. Robotaxi needs to be like Cybertruck and bare metal because it will get keyed, the cameras spray painted and the windscreen covered in graffiti.
Imagine ordering groceries online and having your car go to the store they load it and your car brings it back to you!! I would never grocery shop again
How can you talk about full autonomous robotaxi when it still doesn't work? Musk had promised it since 2016 and its still not working reliable enough to be used without a human supervisor. The FSD stack has been completely rewritten two times already. What's to say the current version is going to work? Furthermore Musk has already indicated that future FSD for level 5 will require new hardware. This means that ALL current Tesla cars will never be able to get level 5 autonomy. 😂
Are you sure it can be done? I drive a lot and FSD is far better than ever before, but it cannot do certain things. Example humans can use reflection off puddles, or count how many cars will pass the intersection when a bus is blocking the view, not good at explaining but there are certain things FSD cannot solve. Maybe if the camera get better and have longer range and have small wipers for the cameras.
RoboTaxi is a good product but it is too expensive for most families to use on a regular basis. This is especially true if you use the average miles driven times the number of family members times whatever cost per mile you associate with RoboTaxi. Yes it will replace Uber and other rideshare and pull in other people but it won’t have the TAM that most associate with it. It’s too expensive for the poor and middle class to use every day.
I selected my MYLR specifically so I could use it when I want to, and assign it to the robotaxi fleet when I want to. And then my choice will extend to: do I want to give up the income and pay someone else to use their car, in order to use my own car for a particular application - or - do I want to just continue leaving mine in the fleet and call a random person's car to take me somewhere? Seems a bit odd, but the difference in cost will be a complicated calculation.
Here’s the best part of FSD. The world car makers will license FSD BUT they need to license the operating system, hardware and inference computer. When the world realizes this, that’s when the valuation goes to multiple thousands per share
No, the elasticity is there at peak use. The owner can do rideshare, commuting, others going to similar location. Even two or three passengers at three bucks. A trip makes it a win for everyone. And takes cars off the road. You can use autonomous and AI at great benefit even when the owner is still in the car. Going to work and back.
Autonomous and AI will make ride share very practical. The person going to work just offers seats as the go to a similar destination. Owner is in car, so not out of owner control. Owner makes money. Reduces cars on road. Just need a ride share app. Ride share gets real. This is part of the peak use solution. Imagine 3 or 4 per car, not one.
Growth "laws" tend to work in the central part of their lifetime curve. Mature physical items assume a level cost curve in an asymptotic fashion. High strength steel, aluminum, nickel, refined silicon, etc stop decreasing in price when we approach the physical limits of their extraction and refinement. Even if robots are 100% of the workforce building cars, there is still a lower limit in the price they will assume. On the autonomy question I have struggled with the TAM discussions and projections. Rideshare (Uber/Lyft) is currently around $17B annually. Assuming unlimited market elasticity, if the charge is $2 per mile (hypothetically) then what is the TAM for $1 per mile? Pick the hypothetical price. I hear people talking of trillions. That would be two orders of magnitude increase. Is that market really there? From a practical perspective it means most people would give up driving and take taxis. I struggle with that premise as well. It's quite easy to do a financial model that shows all the money one saves if one no longer owns a car, but the majority of this country literally not owning a car is a bit sci-fi. There needs to be a catalyst for that scenario above and beyond the financial.
Don't underestimate the massive impact that autonomous drones will have on removing traffic from the roads. I have been tracking Zipline closely, and they uniquely have full FAA approval for autonomous delivery with their full tech/system stack operation. They are scaling internationally and exponentially, and their CFO for this scaling is Tesla's ex-CFO Deepak Ahuja. Their Platform 2 is launching across cities in the USA very soon, and will carry 8lb up to 10 miles at 60 mph, which will cover the vast majority of packages to consumers.
12:20 the frequency with which I wish I could talk to you guys is the reason why I think your show is so successful. Farzad, you’re awesome. (the rest of you too!) Keep up the good work. I’m an Uber driver who got their first Tesla a few months back. Many of the angles that I think about when it comes to the problems Tesla is trying to solve come with that framework. I’m super fascinated with ideas that push things into the future, and I think there are many automation ideas we haven’t thought of yet. But for starters, I wish we would think of Tesla delivery services from the lense that we use to look at optimous (service offered to Amazon via your Tesla that gets everyone paid (similar to door dash models, but much larger)).
😂 "Drivers are the biggest cost" - that premise is crazy! Typically, one person is responsible for the total upkeep and storage of one vehicle. Now imagine you have five hundred cars that have to be maintained and watched twenty-four-seven by at least thirty to one hundred people to keep that fleet up and running, paying each one of them for medical, dental insurance, all of that.
If u believe tesla will solve autonomy massively before most everyone else, unfortunately, I think there will most likely be a situation similar to what we have with the airplane industry. If most people are just using ride sharing instead of owning a car, the biggest driving factor (no pun intended) behind the automotive economy evaporates overnight. If you are only paying by ride, the opportunity cost of paying for each individual transaction is basically negligible when compared to the one-time purchase of a vehicle. What I think this will lead to is cars essentially becoming commodities with really high fixed costs. Once Tesla and maybe a couple of other companies develop a self driving system that works, it will be difficult to break into that market because commodities markets are essentially exclusively price driven. I think Europe and China will probably adjust their trade policies to make sure that they have their major player in the self driving sector, but after a while you will eventually have the airbus and boeing dynamic where there are only two or so major players and innovation kind of stalls out because there aren't really that many market incentives to make things differently because essentially cost is usually the most important factor in determining consumer choice. Additionally, as the culture shifts a way from a personal emphasis on car ownership, I think you will you see the regulatory regime around cars get massively more onerous very quickly for the same reasons that it happened in the aerospace industry. I think then you will see Tesla and whatever other players rise to the top and make a ton of money for the next 10-15 years while they are producing enough self driving vehicles for everyone in the world but then you will reach a saturation point at which point there is really not that much more money to be made from manufacturing vehicles. There will still be replacements rate of manufacturing sure but nothing on the scale of that initial explosive growth. Then I think you will see Tesla and the other companies take that and shift their business model away from cars and into some other industry involving large-scale battery storage. Innovation will then slowly peter out in the car industry, and price will steadily rise with inflation, and most of all cars will jost stop being thought of as important in our society, just another tool we take for granted. It's not the happiest story, but I think it is probably the most likely outcome. 😞
Tesla will lease their AI to other automakers, which would be good. If one vehicle brand gets an update, all vehicles get an update. Hopefully, it's not a CrowdStrike-type update :)
As intertaining as this discussion is, most people don't know much about electric vehicle technology. Most don't know/care about the battery/charging technology. Out of ~ 50 people I know there is only three that follow the tech, or care about autonomy. Therefore like the automatic elevator, there be someone at the steering wheel until acceptance (so pull up your stool and push the button for the customer.
Farzad, the drastic decrease in cost per mile for rides will happen slowly. Tesla doesn't need to charge pennies, just price under Uber. It will be many years before per mile price of rides falls under POA. That's when this could accelerate. But we will see it developing.
Small family has 1 main vehicle and a second peak time vehicle. If another vehicle can pay for itself with peak use and also pay for a nicer primary or secondary vehicle the peak time use becomes a non concern. Also, many people will allow their vehicle to run at peak time and just go to work or home at a slightly different time. People will gladly shift to something that doesn't require their physical energy.
Duh, Uber has no place in a robo-taxi world. Travis Kalanick was dumping tons of Uber's capital into autonomy because he knew it was existential to the company.
If you remove the drivers which in itself is a consumer in the society where will the consumer power come from if not from all this drivers in the world ? That’s what keeps me up on night . How will the consumer power change if the drivers itself is consumers in regards to consumption of products / services and so on .
I don't see Tesla being able to bring down the cost of the car hardware compared to the Chinese companies. However, Tesla can be a leader in leasing the FSD software to other car manufacturers.
Please be honest with ourselves. This is 5 to 10 years away. It's still fast enough to beat waymo to profitability but it's not going to happen this year.
I am new to this channel so i don't know who this old fella is, but isn't it wicked to think about the fact that theyre discussing things 20 years into the future, when the old guy will be de ad and buried already. What does it matter to him?
Just a couple of comments on the peak-trough discussion. A lot of people work from home a few days a week and they do not use their car at peak time on those days. Some people work at different hours and they also do not need their car at peak time.
I think the fact that sensors and cameras rising everywhere in society will deter people from doing crimes or vandalizing less. It seems like a dream, but I really think this is where we are headed, forcing people to behave because they are being watched constantly. Plus I hear Robotaxi has self cleaning
Don't forget that the network will have contact and payment information for riders. Just as with Uber, passengers will be rated. If they have a history of destroying the vehicles they ride in, they may have to pay more for a ride in a hardened vehicle. If they frequently get a ride while drunk and vomit in the vehicle, they either won't be able to get a higher end ride or they'll have to pay a high premium to do so - and of course they'll still have to pay damages for every incident. At the extreme end some riders may only be able to hail special cars which are basically a cage on wheels.
I remain highly skeptical of Tesla owners placing their personal vehicle into the RoboTaxi pool. For one thing, most of us like to carry around a bunch of personal stuff that we wouldn't want compromised. Secondly, "renters" are notoriously hard on equipment. They may not feel the need to lean out the window to vomit or otherwise practice good vehicular hygiene.
Everyone speeds here in California, thus they'd have no use for autonomy, not unless it could be programmed to drive over the speed limits, do half-assed stops at stop signs, and hit the gas pedal when the the traffic light turns yellow. I mean, I drive to an area in the mornings to walk my dog, going 5 mph over, and mom in her SUV is still riding my ass to get little Jimmy to school on time. As for a driverless taxi, anyone thinking that it's a replacement for self car ownership is an idiot. It's nothing more than another form of public transportation.
Robotaxis will be a form of public transportation, but not just "another" form. There's a huge difference between quick trips door to door and long sojourns using multiple forms of traditional public transportation. Trying to get around in the suburbs of a large city without a car I can tell you that a 30 minute trip by car _easily_ becomes a two hour trip by bus, train, and taxi, and may take more than eight hours. That is not a small difference. I presume that lots of people will still want to own their own vehicles, but if a reliable and cheap alternative is available many families that currently own two, three, or more cars might decide they only need one.
Uber is already talking to TESLA. Here is the part still being needed. Unless you put Optimus in the Robotaxi, the drive through tossing the food and drink order into the vehicles window isn't going to work. Still need someone to place or receive the food order into the vehicle. Also, Uber could be a middle leasor of Robotaxis by becoming the maintainer of the vehicle. Uber just needs to put small repair maintenance charging stations and having their app on the Tesla Pad. Think PayPal being in the middle of the customer purchase online.
Big fast food companies like McDonald's could make their own tesla app that you can order right from the cars touchscreen. McDonald's is quick to come up with solutions.
Sorry but full autonomy at scale will not happen within my lifetime… ask yourself, why haven’t commercial airliners adopted this yet. Planes can fly themselves TODAY.. but they don’t.
Airliners can indeed fly themselves, but not yet safely during emergencies by virtue of having human-coded control logic. Once FSD is solved, you'll start to see fully autonomous commercial air travel be a thing.
@@johnfitzpatrick8310 “not yet safely”… but why. Why is the question. Tech is available to accomplish this today but it hasn’t been allowed. Point is, if we can’t figure out “emergency” flight, how can fully autonomous at scale really manage the dozens of “emergencies” that the typical human driver sees daily?
Full Self driving is a biggest Joke. Yesterday it was raining in Virginia and can’t see a single thing in the rear camera while reversing my Model 3 in to my house. If you drive in dark with no streetlights, car says cameras are blocked @ it amazes met that people talk about full self driving. Full self driving is not going to happen until there is V2Vehicle, V2Infrastructure network & road networks is designed for self driving. Plus no stupid human drivers on the road.
Sadly the FSD I bought for $10,000 will never drive me around the country while I watch a movie or have a Zoom call with the family. Why you ask? ALL Tesla vehicles are nearsighted - the cheap cameras in them, either in HW3 or HW4 can't read a standard Snellen Eye Chart at the 20/20 line at 20 feet. This is the reason FSD can't read highway signs oh sure it can make out the fuzzy image of a red octagon 2 feet tall and guess it is a stop sign but the sign below the stop sign that reads "Traffic from the right does not stop" can't be read by FSD so it just assumes the car will stop Turns out only a 10+ megapixel camera can read 20/20 under perfect lighting conditions. My 2022 Model Y has HardWare 3 with 1.2 mexapixel cameras and HardWare 4 only has 5 megapixel cameras at sunset and sunrise, and on stormy days 50+ megapixel cameras are needed Will the 50 states and other countries allow for a nearsighted self-driving car to roam the streets? I doubt it FSD is doomed - R.I.P. FSD and so is the RoboTaxi/Cybercar and elon knows all this..
This is an interesting point to which I hope someone more knowledgeable than you and I will respond. I suspect that FSD requires something less than 20/20 vision equivalency. However I'd think that dynamic range may even be more at issue, as the bit depth of these cameras is likely 8 or less. Consider a hazard emerging from full shadow on a sunny day.
@@johnfitzpatrick8310 AI says that on an average road in America there are 10 posted signs of all kinds, so on a 300 mile trip that's 3,000 signs FSD can't read but a few speed limit signs. The inability to read signs posted like "No parking between 10 PM and 6 AM" may not kill the driver, but FSD is breaking the law. and of course on a rainy night with thunderstorms pouring rain and FSD whizzes past the LED sign "BRIDGE OUT - TURN AROUND NOW" will be ignored by FSD. This is not going to end well for a self-driving car with poor vision...
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If this channel continues to push towards being the hans show then I'm gonna unsubscribe. Another thing Hans isn't considering is not only the lack of a driver caused but the lower cost of electricity... Eventually you can have 18 wheelers with solar panels all over the entire back end charging up batteries that are stored on board so when a trailer is sitting for multiple days in a parking lot baking in the sun it is charging up the battery to be used to minimize the weight of the load to increase the range... Plus it has regenerative braking and the ability to be a refrigeration unit that runs off of electricity.
you forgot old and disabled increased mobility
Will the US interior states see a renaissance in tourism as the majority of Americans start using robotaxi to cross multiple states during 5-7 day travel trips? Anywhere within a 12Hr robotaxi ride would be worth the overnight ride and avoiding the airport experience. Disrupt interstate airline industry? Thoughts?
Personally, this, while interesting and probable, I doubt will find any sort of mass adoption. Sounds like the kind of activity for an adventurous soul. Even if the numbers look good on paper, Will most people really be that adventurous? Am I being too cynical? You painted beautiful picture!
Nope/ because it won’t happen. At least not in the next 20 years.
a semi bus driving 50+ people driverless gg ez
I’ve given this some thought and I think it will. Imagine road tripping with a friend and not having the responsibility of driving.
@@rodballou5838 commercial airliners can do this TODAY, but they don’t. Ask why and you’ll have a partial answer as to why full autonomous driving won’t ever happen at the scale most are talking about it.
If robotaxi comes online I will sell my cars and use it constantly
I drive about 1000 miles a year lately. If they can do $1 per mile it's a no brainer.
I will put my car on the robotaxi network and have it generate $, then maybe buy another one and put it on the network
Transporting products between companies and customers will be a game changer.
EVs are already cheaper than others as we speak, you can buy a decent used tesla for 20-30k, which comparatively speaking is insane ! EVs are just so much better and durable than gas/diesel vehicles. The problem is human ignorance and stupidity, and a bad economy!
Jevons paradox will come into play with the robo taxi. Instead of using public transport people will use a robo taxi. This will mean a big increase in the number of vehicles on the road which will mean more traffic jams which implies an increase in demand for tunnels for roads!
If full self driving vehicles are the only ones allowed in roads and it’s mandated that there’s a uniform standard in place in order for them to communicate with each other and one another and understand, that will almost certainly guarantee that traffic jams and congestions will be eliminated. For one, it will eliminate rubber necker traffic, it will eliminate situations where traffic gets congested into a bottleneck, it will eliminate road rage and delays due to accidents resulting from road rage, etc. there’s still a chance traffic could happen due to a failure in that standard communication, but otherwise traffic jams will be history.
It's difficult to predict details as there are multiple variables.
Autonomy may mean more people taking trips, but it may also mean far less urban space devoted to parking, which means infill construction can make more goods and services available within an easy walking distance for most people, reducing trips. In some urban centers 30% of traffic is just people circling around looking for a parking spot, so in these places autonomy could significantly reduce automotive traffic. But then as urban areas become more livable more people may move to these places, increasing traffic.
In any case, I do think tunnels could greatly ease a great deal of traffic in urban areas, and if they can be bored cheaply enough they would have significant environmental advantages in many rural areas as well due to the way that roads with large amounts of fast traffic affect wildlife among other things. Then of course in some regions they would also make transportation far more reliable in extreme weather events.
I agree. Unfortunately, it seems Toby Seba ignored Jevons Paradox when he concluded that robotaxis would entice most people to give up private car ownership to use robotaxis. There are some studies that show when Uber is running in a city, use of public transport in the city drops, presumably because people decide to pay more to use a convenient Uber rather than pay less to use less convenient public transport.
There are examples of many humans choosing to pay more for convenience. One example is people paying for the convenience of home-delivery of cooked food rather than the cheaper and less convenient option of cooking food at home. My assumption is that something similar with happen when robotaxis arrive: many affluent people will choose the more convenient but more expensive option of private car ownership over using robotaxis (so robotaxis won't cannibalize private car ownership much), while many less affluent people will those the more convenient but more expensive option of using robotaxis over using cheaper but less convenient public transport.
Here is my hope. I want my Optimus to call a robotaxi, get my order from Chipolte after swinging by Dillons/Wal-mart for groceries and picking up my Rx. I will still want the cybertruck to pull my camper to the lake while my other optimus is working my job as a pressure washer driving my current Ram 1500 with washing trailer setup. Why would I wan't to limit myself to only one thing. Don't forget that the boring company can put the fast lanes below the existing highway system for frieght so highway travel is less congested.
So many variables to consider with FSD and robotaxi actually in place. The wide trickle down effect to all life is absurd.
Legacy ice be like a slow motion crash
How will they handle the vandals like the ones graffitiing the Waymo? Elon is baiting them. I would never let my FSD car loose in the US. Robotaxi needs to be like Cybertruck and bare metal because it will get keyed, the cameras spray painted and the windscreen covered in graffiti.
Imagine ordering groceries online and having your car go to the store they load it and your car brings it back to you!! I would never grocery shop again
There will be Sleeper Cars, just a bed, with video screen. Autonomous Motor Homes, Touring will never be the same again.
I guess having a parking space or garage may effect whether you decide to own a car or not.
How can the Chinese get the Nvidia ai chips? Isn't it under sanction?
Is there a place in the market for the second safest FSD system?
Long time no see welcome back
How can you talk about full autonomous robotaxi when it still doesn't work? Musk had promised it since 2016 and its still not working reliable enough to be used without a human supervisor. The FSD stack has been completely rewritten two times already. What's to say the current version is going to work? Furthermore Musk has already indicated that future FSD for level 5 will require new hardware. This means that ALL current Tesla cars will never be able to get level 5 autonomy. 😂
Why does Sam look like am AI talking head?
That Max Headroom vibe.
No need for Uber!
Are you sure it can be done? I drive a lot and FSD is far better than ever before, but it cannot do certain things. Example humans can use reflection off puddles, or count how many cars will pass the intersection when a bus is blocking the view, not good at explaining but there are certain things FSD cannot solve. Maybe if the camera get better and have longer range and have small wipers for the cameras.
RoboTaxi is a good product but it is too expensive for most families to use on a regular basis. This is especially true if you use the average miles driven times the number of family members times whatever cost per mile you associate with RoboTaxi. Yes it will replace Uber and other rideshare and pull in other people but it won’t have the TAM that most associate with it. It’s too expensive for the poor and middle class to use every day.
I selected my MYLR specifically so I could use it when I want to, and assign it to the robotaxi fleet when I want to. And then my choice will extend to: do I want to give up the income and pay someone else to use their car, in order to use my own car for a particular application - or - do I want to just continue leaving mine in the fleet and call a random person's car to take me somewhere? Seems a bit odd, but the difference in cost will be a complicated calculation.
LA to Reno is $100 flight roughly. That’s 20 cents a mile. Why can’t autonomous cars be even cheaper
Here’s the best part of FSD. The world car makers will license FSD BUT they need to license the operating system, hardware and inference computer. When the world realizes this, that’s when the valuation goes to multiple thousands per share
No, the elasticity is there at peak use. The owner can do rideshare, commuting, others going to similar location. Even two or three passengers at three bucks. A trip makes it a win for everyone. And takes cars off the road. You can use autonomous and AI at great benefit even when the owner is still in the car. Going to work and back.
Autonomous and AI will make ride share very practical. The person going to work just offers seats as the go to a similar destination. Owner is in car, so not out of owner control. Owner makes money. Reduces cars on road. Just need a ride share app. Ride share gets real. This is part of the peak use solution. Imagine 3 or 4 per car, not one.
Growth "laws" tend to work in the central part of their lifetime curve. Mature physical items assume a level cost curve in an asymptotic fashion. High strength steel, aluminum, nickel, refined silicon, etc stop decreasing in price when we approach the physical limits of their extraction and refinement. Even if robots are 100% of the workforce building cars, there is still a lower limit in the price they will assume. On the autonomy question I have struggled with the TAM discussions and projections. Rideshare (Uber/Lyft) is currently around $17B annually. Assuming unlimited market elasticity, if the charge is $2 per mile (hypothetically) then what is the TAM for $1 per mile? Pick the hypothetical price. I hear people talking of trillions. That would be two orders of magnitude increase. Is that market really there? From a practical perspective it means most people would give up driving and take taxis. I struggle with that premise as well. It's quite easy to do a financial model that shows all the money one saves if one no longer owns a car, but the majority of this country literally not owning a car is a bit sci-fi. There needs to be a catalyst for that scenario above and beyond the financial.
Don't underestimate the massive impact that autonomous drones will have on removing traffic from the roads. I have been tracking Zipline closely, and they uniquely have full FAA approval for autonomous delivery with their full tech/system stack operation. They are scaling internationally and exponentially, and their CFO for this scaling is Tesla's ex-CFO Deepak Ahuja. Their Platform 2 is launching across cities in the USA very soon, and will carry 8lb up to 10 miles at 60 mph, which will cover the vast majority of packages to consumers.
12:20 the frequency with which I wish I could talk to you guys is the reason why I think your show is so successful. Farzad, you’re awesome. (the rest of you too!) Keep up the good work.
I’m an Uber driver who got their first Tesla a few months back. Many of the angles that I think about when it comes to the problems Tesla is trying to solve come with that framework. I’m super fascinated with ideas that push things into the future, and I think there are many automation ideas we haven’t thought of yet. But for starters, I wish we would think of Tesla delivery services from the lense that we use to look at optimous (service offered to Amazon via your Tesla that gets everyone paid (similar to door dash models, but much larger)).
😂 "Drivers are the biggest cost" - that premise is crazy!
Typically, one person is responsible for the total upkeep and storage of one vehicle.
Now imagine you have five hundred cars that have to be maintained and watched twenty-four-seven by at least thirty to one hundred people to keep that fleet up and running, paying each one of them for medical, dental insurance, all of that.
If u believe tesla will solve autonomy massively before most everyone else, unfortunately, I think there will most likely be a situation similar to what we have with the airplane industry. If most people are just using ride sharing instead of owning a car, the biggest driving factor (no pun intended) behind the automotive economy evaporates overnight. If you are only paying by ride, the opportunity cost of paying for each individual transaction is basically negligible when compared to the one-time purchase of a vehicle. What I think this will lead to is cars essentially becoming commodities with really high fixed costs. Once Tesla and maybe a couple of other companies develop a self driving system that works, it will be difficult to break into that market because commodities markets are essentially exclusively price driven. I think Europe and China will probably adjust their trade policies to make sure that they have their major player in the self driving sector, but after a while you will eventually have the airbus and boeing dynamic where there are only two or so major players and innovation kind of stalls out because there aren't really that many market incentives to make things differently because essentially cost is usually the most important factor in determining consumer choice. Additionally, as the culture shifts a way from a personal emphasis on car ownership, I think you will you see the regulatory regime around cars get massively more onerous very quickly for the same reasons that it happened in the aerospace industry. I think then you will see Tesla and whatever other players rise to the top and make a ton of money for the next 10-15 years while they are producing enough self driving vehicles for everyone in the world but then you will reach a saturation point at which point there is really not that much more money to be made from manufacturing vehicles. There will still be replacements rate of manufacturing sure but nothing on the scale of that initial explosive growth. Then I think you will see Tesla and the other companies take that and shift their business model away from cars and into some other industry involving large-scale battery storage. Innovation will then slowly peter out in the car industry, and price will steadily rise with inflation, and most of all cars will jost stop being thought of as important in our society, just another tool we take for granted. It's not the happiest story, but I think it is probably the most likely outcome. 😞
Tesla will lease their AI to other automakers, which would be good. If one vehicle brand gets an update, all vehicles get an update. Hopefully, it's not a CrowdStrike-type update :)
As intertaining as this discussion is, most people don't know much about electric vehicle technology. Most don't know/care about the battery/charging technology. Out of ~ 50 people I know there is only three that follow the tech, or care about autonomy. Therefore like the automatic elevator, there be someone at the steering wheel until acceptance (so pull up your stool and push the button for the customer.
Farzad, the drastic decrease in cost per mile for rides will happen slowly. Tesla doesn't need to charge pennies, just price under Uber. It will be many years before per mile price of rides falls under POA. That's when this could accelerate. But we will see it developing.
Small family has 1 main vehicle and a second peak time vehicle. If another vehicle can pay for itself with peak use and also pay for a nicer primary or secondary vehicle the peak time use becomes a non concern. Also, many people will allow their vehicle to run at peak time and just go to work or home at a slightly different time. People will gladly shift to something that doesn't require their physical energy.
Duh, Uber has no place in a robo-taxi world. Travis Kalanick was dumping tons of Uber's capital into autonomy because he knew it was existential to the company.
If you remove the drivers which in itself is a consumer in the society where will the consumer power come from if not from all this drivers in the world ? That’s what keeps me up on night . How will the consumer power change if the drivers itself is consumers in regards to consumption of products / services and so on .
I don't see Tesla being able to bring down the cost of the car hardware compared to the Chinese companies. However, Tesla can be a leader in leasing the FSD software to other car manufacturers.
Please be honest with ourselves. This is 5 to 10 years away. It's still fast enough to beat waymo to profitability but it's not going to happen this year.
I am new to this channel so i don't know who this old fella is, but isn't it wicked to think about the fact that theyre discussing things 20 years into the future, when the old guy will be de ad and buried already. What does it matter to him?
not all wagon companies failed, Studebaker successfully shifted to cars and made it to 1966
Uber may still survive based on people’s fear of the unknown. Many people will not trust a driverless car, even if the statistics show they’re safer.
I would say the 5 year remaining life of Legacy Auto will start counting once the $25k Tesla is released at scale to consumers.
"Its over" and "this changes everything". Im fed up with this clickbait titles
Just a couple of comments on the peak-trough discussion. A lot of people work from home a few days a week and they do not use their car at peak time on those days. Some people work at different hours and they also do not need their car at peak time.
But Jerry Rig Everything is Madge his car doesnt self drive and thats a scam!!! 😅😅😂😂
Conhecimento nos liberta Deus agindo sempre essa es nossa marca favorita não é seus produtos são verdadeiros sonhos de consumo de todos já
I worry about customers trashing robotaxis.
I think the fact that sensors and cameras rising everywhere in society will deter people from doing crimes or vandalizing less. It seems like a dream, but I really think this is where we are headed, forcing people to behave because they are being watched constantly.
Plus I hear Robotaxi has self cleaning
Don't forget that the network will have contact and payment information for riders.
Just as with Uber, passengers will be rated. If they have a history of destroying the vehicles they ride in, they may have to pay more for a ride in a hardened vehicle. If they frequently get a ride while drunk and vomit in the vehicle, they either won't be able to get a higher end ride or they'll have to pay a high premium to do so - and of course they'll still have to pay damages for every incident.
At the extreme end some riders may only be able to hail special cars which are basically a cage on wheels.
Passengers, and their bank details are known. It's outside vandals that we need to worry about.
I’ll say when money is abundant it floods into fashion and travel.
I could listen to an hour of this everyday
Stellantis is the canary in the coal mine. The others time running out.
I remain highly skeptical of Tesla owners placing their personal vehicle into the RoboTaxi pool. For one thing, most of us like to carry around a bunch of personal stuff that we wouldn't want compromised. Secondly, "renters" are notoriously hard on equipment. They may not feel the need to lean out the window to vomit or otherwise practice good vehicular hygiene.
Musk did say that you will be able to choose who can ride in your car. Like 5 star riders only or only people you approve like friends and family.
Everyone speeds here in California, thus they'd have no use for autonomy, not unless it could be programmed to drive over the speed limits, do half-assed stops at stop signs, and hit the gas pedal when the the traffic light turns yellow. I mean, I drive to an area in the mornings to walk my dog, going 5 mph over, and mom in her SUV is still riding my ass to get little Jimmy to school on time. As for a driverless taxi, anyone thinking that it's a replacement for self car ownership is an idiot. It's nothing more than another form of public transportation.
Robotaxis will be a form of public transportation, but not just "another" form. There's a huge difference between quick trips door to door and long sojourns using multiple forms of traditional public transportation. Trying to get around in the suburbs of a large city without a car I can tell you that a 30 minute trip by car _easily_ becomes a two hour trip by bus, train, and taxi, and may take more than eight hours. That is not a small difference.
I presume that lots of people will still want to own their own vehicles, but if a reliable and cheap alternative is available many families that currently own two, three, or more cars might decide they only need one.
just to increase your consumers and aquire customers.
Buy 2 Tesla model 3 and put 1 on network
The driver also causes all the accidents
One big question-
Why go anywhere when we all have VR headsets?
You’re not there until you can smell it, taste it, feel the breeze, the humidity and the heat.
Uber is already talking to TESLA. Here is the part still being needed. Unless you put Optimus in the Robotaxi, the drive through tossing the food and drink order into the vehicles window isn't going to work. Still need someone to place or receive the food order into the vehicle. Also, Uber could be a middle leasor of Robotaxis by becoming the maintainer of the vehicle. Uber just needs to put small repair maintenance charging stations and having their app on the Tesla Pad. Think PayPal being in the middle of the customer purchase online.
If you're not driving it would be easy to order on the restaurant app for curbside pickup and not actually drive through the drive through.
Big fast food companies like McDonald's could make their own tesla app that you can order right from the cars touchscreen. McDonald's is quick to come up with solutions.
Sorry but full autonomy at scale will not happen within my lifetime… ask yourself, why haven’t commercial airliners adopted this yet. Planes can fly themselves TODAY.. but they don’t.
Airliners can indeed fly themselves, but not yet safely during emergencies by virtue of having human-coded control logic. Once FSD is solved, you'll start to see fully autonomous commercial air travel be a thing.
@@johnfitzpatrick8310 “not yet safely”… but why. Why is the question. Tech is available to accomplish this today but it hasn’t been allowed. Point is, if we can’t figure out “emergency” flight, how can fully autonomous at scale really manage the dozens of “emergencies” that the typical human driver sees daily?
Love this thanks
“I think you’re dumb and I’ll tell you why.” 5:14. Terrible guest :(
Hans is literally the worst human on earth can't wait to talk to him again tomorrow.
@@farzyness😂
Tesla
Full Self driving is a biggest Joke. Yesterday it was raining in Virginia and can’t see a single thing in the rear camera while reversing my Model 3 in to my house. If you drive in dark with no streetlights, car says cameras are blocked @ it amazes met that people talk about full self driving.
Full self driving is not going to happen until there is V2Vehicle, V2Infrastructure network & road networks is designed for self driving. Plus no stupid human drivers on the road.
Sadly the FSD I bought for $10,000 will never drive me around the country while I watch a movie or have a Zoom call with the family.
Why you ask?
ALL Tesla vehicles are nearsighted - the cheap cameras in them, either in HW3 or HW4 can't
read a standard Snellen Eye Chart at the 20/20 line at 20 feet.
This is the reason FSD can't read highway signs
oh sure it can make out the fuzzy image of a red octagon 2 feet tall and guess it is a stop sign
but the sign below the stop sign that reads
"Traffic from the right does not stop"
can't be read by FSD so it just assumes the car will stop
Turns out only a 10+ megapixel camera can read 20/20 under perfect lighting conditions.
My 2022 Model Y has HardWare 3 with 1.2 mexapixel cameras
and HardWare 4 only has 5 megapixel cameras
at sunset and sunrise, and on stormy days 50+ megapixel cameras are needed
Will the 50 states and other countries allow for a nearsighted self-driving car to roam the streets?
I doubt it
FSD is doomed - R.I.P. FSD
and so is the RoboTaxi/Cybercar
and elon knows all this..
This is an interesting point to which I hope someone more knowledgeable than you and I will respond. I suspect that FSD requires something less than 20/20 vision equivalency. However I'd think that dynamic range may even be more at issue, as the bit depth of these cameras is likely 8 or less. Consider a hazard emerging from full shadow on a sunny day.
@@johnfitzpatrick8310 AI says that on an average road in America there are 10 posted signs of all kinds, so on a 300 mile trip that's 3,000 signs FSD can't read but a few speed limit signs.
The inability to read signs posted like "No parking between 10 PM and 6 AM" may not kill the driver, but FSD is breaking the law.
and of course on a rainy night with thunderstorms pouring rain
and FSD whizzes past the LED sign
"BRIDGE OUT - TURN AROUND NOW" will be ignored by FSD.
This is not going to end well for a self-driving car with poor vision...
Ark invest lol the same clownss that bought amazing stocks like Teledoc and Zoom at the peak. You guys are so smart lol.
Terrific episode @farzyness