Yukon Huang is the kind of teacher I enjoyed the most in college or graduate school. Whatever “silly” or “dumb” questions in class were asked, they were never dismissed outright or dogmatically but rather patiently answered citing known facts and statistics. One can draw a different conclusion which, however, must be fact based.
This is one of very few brilliant Chinese experts who really know what he is talking about. And this is the one in a long long time that makes me realize there is social scientist that can do real "scientific" research.
As someone who has spent the past 5 years living and working in China, I find his talk to be an accurate representation of what's happening in China. Many people in China have a pretty positive attitude towards the United States and find it difficult to see how that affection was not reciprocated in the US media. And after my stay here, I tend to agree that the US is more hostile towards China than the other way around. I wish there are more views for this video to facilitate better understanding of both countries
Till 2008 China used to keep its surpluses in US treasuries,but after the bust of the housing bubble US started doing QE ( printing money to pay debt ) . This got China worried . So they came up with OBOR projects were in they loan there savings / surplus money to 65 countries to build infrastructure. Most of this infrastructure is build by Chinese companies using Chinese resources and they get better returns on there loans than what US treasuries gave them. On top of it helps them buy political influence in these 65 countries. This has got America worried .... hence the trade war..... as America can not retaliate militarily against China as it did against the oil rich Arab countries to support their inefficient business.
It's true the US treasuries are no longer a good look for China, but there will always be demand for US treasuries, even after big changes in the global economy. It's not so much China saving money as the Chinese economy growing exponentially until they can build the Belt and Road projects with their new money. I don't think the returns on Belt and Road loans will be very good. There are already projects that are failing because they were poorly planned by all involved. But the long term benefits of the Belt and Road will be good for all, including the lessons on avoiding bad projects.
@@JinFX There will only be demand for US notes because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. This is unlikely to change barring a global catastrophe, like all out nuclear war or the sudden unexpected disappearance of oil. The returns on BRI are great for China, perhaps not so much for the host country. But remember that you can't just think of in purely economic terms. Like Huang said in this video, the CCP plenaries largely dropped growth targets in the economy, focusing instead of quality of growth. China's in the midst of a large transformation, and BRI helps that. The Mongolian corridor, for example, isn't going to give great returns. However, it will secure large and easy access to natural gas, which will transform Northeast China energy demands. The Myanmar and Bangladesh corridors won't give great returns, but it will secure markets for low-end goods so that the Chinese floating population can move into pre-planned cities. CPEC and the Kazakh landbridge won't give great returns, but they play a key role in China's Western development plan.
This perspective is the way that China and Chinese sees themselves. His work is probably the most accurate western account of the current attitude of China
I know its old, but the 1% is the trick. Its 1% of the US economy. So 1% is $500 billion. For decades US paid China $500B, way more in actual money than probably all other countries combined. Japan's payment of 20% may only be $2-3B because it has a much smaller economy than the US. (I'm not stating the figures as fact, but as an example!) Be careful how people state things, particularly percentages, because they are relative numbers that hide absolute values. His disparaging US remarks carry no weight when you realise how much debt the US has incurred to China. Also, he said China could not have benefited from the US because it had no surplus. There is no connection between a debt and a profit. The payments went into building the Chinese military and economic ccp global infrastructure, so of course there is no surplus because it has been invested in their programme. Trump is now attempting to dismantle their world-wide infrastructure and eliminate its supply from the US through trade and/or tariffs.
@@pinabarryscott could it be because few American companies invest in their own research and innovation with a long-term plan instead of a quick buck plan
I grew up in China, then returned to live and work in Beijing for almost ten years recently, I see a lot of flaws in his arguments, things there are far from the rosy pictures he's painting. To put it bluntly, shit may hit the fan in China soon.
This silly old buffer only gave cold war rhetoric and no substance. It is puzzling why China economy matters to you if you are not jealous, resentful and fear of Chinese achievements. Whether you believe Chinese economy or not, it is not going to change what happensin your own country. It is way better mind your own business instead of praying something bad happens to others which may not even benefit you. Your zero-sum miserable mentality is really sad and despicable. Please get out China, nobody is asking you to stay in China.
What Dr. Huang’s ideas inspire me most is not about re-examining those conventional wisdoms but pointing out that the “Thucydides' Trap” is NOT inevitable, that through more self-reflection 、mutual development and open collaboration, unnecessary conflicts can be avoided and win-win can take the place of win-lose or lose-lose (which is probably where the situation will go based on what’s happening these days). I think that’s the most significant aspiration that both China and US should keep in mind. God bless China. God bless US. And God bless a peaceful and prosperous world!
Not so optomistic our us greedy corrupted leaders do not play fair, does not even acknowledge treaty and renege on it later on with party , bully smaller nations into submission, you force to take, plunder, steal... what trust?
Virtually every speaker on economics comes from a biased point of view. Read everything you can to attack any theory presented to you. You will often find they are full of it.
I'm always suspicious of these types from the "Think Tanks" This guy, formerly of the world bank, is now with the Carnegie Inst. which, according to citizens source, is a libertarian org. While what he has to say is very interesting and certainly gives a different perspective as MSM orthe blogosphere, I have my salt shaker out.
I think the key issue is not how we get it right or wrong, but how the new China will work with the rest of world, do we really want a totalitarian regime to be a major player or contributor on the world stage?
I have been living in Shenzhen, China for two years now. I work for a large Chinese Tech company here. I would agree with almost everything he says. Living here has really made me open my eyes about the misconceptions that people in the US has about China and the way the economies works. Both the US and the Chinese economies. I do disagree with the land ownership/debit issue. For one, he does not go into the whole ghost city issue. According to Baidu, there are 84 Million empty apartments in China. There are so many completely empty cites and pockets of unused buildings just sitting around unused because no one can can afford them, or they are located in places where there is no work. But they keep on building. That somehow, has to put a burden on the debit. How can a construction company spend billions on constructing unused and unsold properties and not have some kind of impact on a debit? There is going to be a reckoning soon. That bubble is going to burst eventually.
About ghost cities, most "ghost cities" are actually all sold out! The are all built by “开发商”， not government, these people are not stupid, they won't bid for a land and build apartment buildings that won't sell! At least this is the case in coastal areas.
Ghost City is the asset of the government. Are you stupid? It's not an issue. If China wanted and felt like it was the time to move people into the city they would. They are a communist country. Stop using your perspective of evaluating the situation. I realize you don't really get it because China is considered ONE, you do things for your nation. You suffer or work harder for your nation. It is not like the US where you do whatever you want.
Or perhaps population migration into the newly created cities/housing is planned and soon to be realized. I can't see China operating without a long range plan; many in the U.S. are comfortable fantasizing that China lacks foresight and ability to long range plan, hence the plethora of China gonna collapses stories so popular among Western economists. Shenzhen was at one time a nothing city of a bare few thousand people, and the West was quite happy with that. Then, almost overnight, Shenzhen is the Silicon Valley of China and tech people from around the world can't get there fast enough, with their hands out, to get a piece of the action. China is only beginning, and far from finished. Naysayers need to get their heads out of their butts and do some planning of their own, or get left far behind what is emerging. Silicon Valley? Oh yeah, can't neglect to mention America's techies in Silicon Valley homeless or living out of their RVs because they can't pay the rent in what used to be affordable housing in the region -- before the real estate people decided to destroy the local economy with sky high rents and housing prices. $3000 per month rent to sleep on the couch in somebody's living room. Go America. You're so great.
I too live in Shenzhen. When I bought a condo, my building was empty. Most of the units were bought by Hong Kong speculators. Today it is completely occupied and those speculators are laughing at western media about ghost cities. They got a 10 X profit from their ghost condo. BTW, most buyers pay cash, no mortgage. Only the young, without family support, has to deal with a mortgage. That story has been repeated all over China. That also is a problem for the government because of these high prices, young people can't afford to buy a house, just like us. They are trying to change that because Shenzhen's success depends on young smart people to work and live in Shenzhen. The government is implementing housing for these young people at affordable prices. They probably have conditions tied to them for sure. The famous story of ghost cities is Ordos in Inner Mongolia, it was the city that kicked off the ghost city epidemic. Today it is thriving. Why was it empty when the story was written? No schools, no public transportation, no hospitals, no businesses. www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/06/30/ordos-chinas-most-infamous-ex-ghost-city-continues-rising/#6b8e73ea6877
Is this guy really a serious expert of China’s economy?? Am I the only one who thinks that his opinions are opposite of what is happening from what I am reading to listening to other experts???
Mr Huang is spot on. I worked with high level Chinese officials for over 10 years. Too many Americans can't get over their jingoistic mantras. Chinese leaders public and especially private are at the top of their game. Smart, well educated, hard working and clever.
Eyeopening, I am shocked, a few perspectives I have heard the first time and yet make such great sense in explaining the debt and land value phenomenon in China.
Americans have a tendency to want to hear only what reinforces their preconceptions . Rather than actually learning something at variance with their prejudice . US images of China are rooted back in the '60's . They have no idea how wrong they are . This Chinese guy is right in what he says . Which is why few Americans will understand it .
That is a very narrow-minded comment Steve. "US images of China are rooted back in the 60's". Given that hundreds of thousands of Americans per year go to China nowadays, I'm not sure where you get that idea. Where is your evidence that this is true other than your personal bias. Sounds like you have some preconceptions about Americans. I don't know any Americans that have that image of China.
Wow, did you even watch the video? He said at the very beginning that US opinions have recently changed about China. That most Americans see China as the dominant economy. He said this is not actually true. US opinions today are not rooted in the 60's as he clearly stated. Your an idiot.
Watching and hearing Huang now with the benefit of hindsight shows how accurate he is on US and China trade relationship is and his views on the global economy.
From Number 3 to Number 1economic power in less than 20 years cannot be denied. it is how China has invested its income in improving the lives of its people while the US was number One and now number two has fewer rail links, bus service, growing poverty, lowering nutrition with people buying processed foods, and education standards going down the drain, with growth in drug use, increased medical care, increased credit and financial problems resulting in home foreclosures, is to say something is not right with America that points to throwing the money away by giving the emphasis on handing money out to Pentagon that has always hungered for more wars and a blank check.
Truth can be hurtful, especially to narrow minded, opinionated, and low EQ ones. However, if truth is not respected, mistakes can be made. If mistakes are made, consequences will incur. US is not lack of smart people, thanks to smart approaches it took for years. The key to success is always to respect truth and act accordingly.
I've lived and worked in East Asia as an expat consultant for the last ten years including a couple years in China's Guangdong area, the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and this conversation is spot on!
It's not about criticism, it's about why China thinks and behave the way it does. It's like trying to understand Israel's history despite its apartheid state.
So there has to be criticism of China for you to validate any speaks about China. Wow, this is easy, continuing watching BBC, CNN and Fox. Why would you even try to listen to anything positive about China? It clearly cringes you and makes you uncomfortable. Dont force yourself. When the world was praising about the US in the past, i see no complains in that aspect at all. I guess US is indeed perfect.
If anyone could participate in One Belt One Road (OBOR). How come the World bank says over 90% of the OBOR projects employs Chinese company instead of where the infrastructures are built? OBOR is just a way to solve China's debt problem by allocating its growing debt to other countries while Chinese contractors make the money. If the debts are on foreign countries' backs while Chinese private sectors are making the money. The Chinese government would not have to worry about bankruptcy and continue with the GDP growth.
His comparison of real land values with the rest of the region/world and city population densities is misleading. The reality is that only Chinese citizens are "granted" the right to "lease" (not to be confused with own) a property for a limited number of years (40-70 yrs depending on the property type). Despite his notion that "everyone owns their homes", valuation and compensation for a property is often capricious, particularly when the provincial government wants to allocate rural land for future development (i.e. the state reacquires a property then corruptly (his words) transfers it to an entrepreneur). Rampant speculation has encouraged shoddy, wasteful, and ill-advised over-development. The disparity of real estate values and housing costs rising faster than personal incomes has yielded frighteningly low occupancy rates in these vast new projects resulting in literal "ghost" cities, with most of a city's (poor) inhabitants relegated to the less expensive furthest outer rings. So, while his general insights may be valid, I can only take them at face value as they seem to overlook other truths and necessary info.
Ever. Because the truth is not good. The Truth is that America and the west have been continually exploited by the Communist Party and their criminal economic policy, politics, and tyranny, while they themselves and their families are getting richer and richer. The Chinese people could all be in the middle class by now (with up to 100 Million+ in the upper middle class to upper class).
Yukon is one of those China experts who really know the country. However his message is foreign to many westerners because it’s kind of upsetting unlike the kind of Gordon Chang.
Economics theories cannot be conventional and fixated. The world changes. Yukon has really done a good job diving deep into the core of the real world situation and has analyzed things more thoroughly. His views make sense but may not drill into most people's pysche.
Great window into China for those that do not know the Chinese language, there's very few person that speaks English fluently and understand the West and Chinese economiesthat can convey the happenings in China to the rest of the world.
The greatest problem facing humanity are actually the systems and structures of division that separate us. We have created a world where all subsets of humanity, from individuals to nations, compete against each other like players in some complex boardgame. Only ever pausing for cooperation when strategic interests momentarily align. Without finding solutions to break down this system we've created for ourselves, we are all doomed to conflict. With the ever increasing destructiveness of our weapons, it is mathematical certainty that we will one day destroy each other along with all the unfortunate species with which we share this planet. Now a lesser mind may think that eliminating their "enemies" will provide the solution. Until they find new enemies within the smaller circles they've created. This will never end until the thinking behind the "us and them" mentality ends. People do have a tendency to agree with and be selectively cognizant of information that agrees with their personal opinions, biases, prejudices, and dogma. The worst part is not this though. It is the refusal to accept contradicting information that challenges the dogma. This is true for all people on all sides of every spectrum. We can begin to break this down by first identifying the building blocks of these structures. There are many obvious ones and some are between the lines in this video. Having the ability to empathize is also a good start.
Mr. Huang discussion is very interesting. The idea is not rather he is right or wrong but does he offer an opportunity economist to revist the reasoning used to arrive at economic conclusions ie. American vs Chines;. long term vs short term has in it a very valuable lesson.
I have yet to see anyone seriously discussing the effects of the one child policy in China. Correct me if I have it wrong, but I see a disaster in the making. An ageing and shrinking population would have a massive effect on economic and social issues. I also think that there will be negative consequences of the building of so many ghost cities and the over-emphasis of wealth being linked primarily to home ownership.
You are somewhat right. Aging rapidly is a serious issue. People are less and less willing to marry and bore a child. Govt has to come up with a solution. For the ghost cities. It’s much more of lesser problem than it was five six years ago. These were never a problem in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai, since people still keep flooding to them and housing market is still a sell market. It was a problem for tier 2 and tier 3 cities 5 or 6 years ago because so much housing was built but nobody was coming there. Somehow for the last five years people are more placing more interests from Beijing Shanghai to tier 2 and tier 3 cities since policies are starting to favor them. Overall, ghost cities is not a big in my opinion since urban housing is still a rigid demand as long as modernization is ongoing.
fllamber the second largest muslim ethnicity in China is Hui, which is almost as big as urghuls. They also have their own autonomic state in china, “ning xia”. So you have to ask yourself, why only urghuls are singled out in this particular event, but not Hui, and nor even tibetans? It’s because some urghuls are pro independence of a made up country so called “east turkestan”, and their movements are funded by the US and Turkey, and they are responsible for almost 100%, if not all, of the terrorism happened in China. Just look it up on wiki.
The same question can go back to you, does american political parties truly want your happiness? Or they have their own agendas as well? No need to play god when you are not.
That's because no single person is going to be an all-powerful guru. Even the highest level "brain trust" in China, with access to the most sensitive information, would no doubt have differing ideas, predictions, and recommendations. Huang is correct in predicting the trade disputes intensifying in China. He's also correct in that the "asset bubble" in China is not quite as terrible when you compare to comparable cities like Mumbai or New York. However, he's wrong about the damage of the hukou system, because this system allowed the command part of a mixed economy to function. He also speaks as though higher growth is better, which it isn't. Too much growth results in corruption, inefficiency, etc. Finally, Huang is an economist, so anything he says about politics needs to be taken with a bigger grain of salt. For example, I personally disagree that China will liberalize politically if it reaches the per capita incomes of ROC, because the Chinese view it as a failed democracy. Social stability also has a heavy emotional aspect, which Huang fails to address.
I mean, not really. China isn't more liberal today, just the opposite, in fact. The introduction of the social credit system has been disastrous for civil liberties. Censorship is as prevalent if not more than in 2017, and the CCP has proven itself to be exploitative and predatory when it comes to international business, and the "debt bubble" has nothing to do with ownership of private property but the construction of "ghost cities" which prop up the Chinese GDP.
Kyle Simon credit system has long been established in the US. What about the censorship in the US? And where are these ghost towns now your media were so passionate talking about? Have you seen any of them yourself or just assume that your media are so fair and balanced that they are all truth nothing but the truth?
China has successfully drafted a strategy that uses enables synergies between urban and rural development to be used profitably to improve the living conditions in the rural areas while at the same time reducing the cost of labour and living in the urban areas. This is the reason why migrant workers have returned to their villages after their career, to become farmers with greater financial capital that has enabled the to afford agricultural equipments to boost their productivity. Kudos to china. Let the west stop making baseless comparisons but rather take into consideration the context of both countries in relation to development.
@@jdemeulenaer123 he doesn't read chinese. you have to write it down in english. his parents brought him to the states when he was 5 years old. he doesn't speak nor read chinese.
This guy is very very interesting. I would love to hear him debate with another person who is also well informed and has different conclusions. After spending a couple months traveling in China, I can say that I very much agree with him that the western view of China is just plainly wrong. Also the Chinese view of China is opaque since there certainly is strong restrictions on the freedom to speak. Instead of spending time debating politics, it seems like the Chinese spend that energy cooking really great food and working hard and studying hard to create a better future for all of China. China is a very fascinating place. Chinese culture is really interesting too. I really hope that we in the west will get off of the high horse a little more often and learn from the Chinese. What he said about the long term planning is so so huge, you have no idea!
Tom, it's the Ashkenazic propaganda effect. Just about every American who has visited China (especially Shanghai) went home in shock witnessing the beauty and advance in every aspect...
Actually chinese like to talk about politics, even the taxi drivers in beijing would keep babbling about politics ( it’s well know among chinese). We just dont have those political talk shows on tv, but people talk among themselves, and also on internet. Travelling for 2 months might not give you a full view of china as you need to be able to read Chinese and use the chinese websites to be able to see those complains and discussions about social issues. The freedom of speech is limited to the point that you probably cant doubt the legitimacy of the party, and something along that line. But usual social and political issues are generally ok, pollutions, inequality, and even corruptions, there are all sorts of topics being discussed online, like weibo, wangyi, bilibili, zhihu to name a few. on wechat people also forward and spread stuff. My take on this is that chinese gov is ok with you complaining about actual practical issues that they can improve on and help you with, because as long as they tackle your complains, you are happy, and they are safe. But they dont want you dy-stabilize the society by questioning their legitimacy and political foundation which they are not able to change for you.
Rich people drive the conversations in the US. The income inequility is the the problem. Every time a crisis hit, they let the people blame some other country. In fact, the rich got richer every single crisis.
Livefree Ordie LOL more like free market economy brings everyone up it’s called upper mobility no other nation in the world like the US. Freedom created wellbeing and possibilities of economic success for everyone
Interesting presentation but I Don t agree with many of the assumption as I am an industrial and building plants in usa, so most electronic come from china, when there is Chinese new year you can t get any electronic components as usa company Don t stock nothing .lately I bought diesel pump from germany, so it has been shipped in usa through china like the rest, so that is my experience and here in new an gland most plants have move to china that is a fact...
Productivity has always been presented as a good thing. That would only be true if the market for your product is limitless. If there's a limit to the demand for your product, then increased productivity would have to be accompanied by loss of jobs. If people losse their jobs, there are fewer people to buy the goods or services that are now delivered more effeciently with fewer and fewer poeple.
One Belt One Road is a drive to decouple Eurasia from US controlled global economy and thus render US financial and military power irrelevant. This initiative works for China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Central Asia, it may work for India eventually but will always be against US interest
Elena Sharipova, MD ! After the complete loss of their(French, British, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, Belgian, Italian & not to speak of Danish) colonies and winding up of Empires, West Europe is in dire economic straits. It views PRC as a potential market & PRC knows it- their need. Hence the OBOR & an opportunity to invest the humongous accumulation of cash reserves (apart from American Bonds). People read too much of altruism in this.
Very perceptive. Do you know how the earth can be "darkened on a clear day"? I do. Air is composed of %78 nitrogen (N2) and %20 oxygen (O2). When ionized, air then reacts chemically with itself, forming red-brown NITROGEN DIOXIDE (a deep maroon colored gas). The reaction is as follows: none molecule of N2 + two molecules of O2 = 2NO2. You'll get a series of nitrogen compounds, esp. di-nitrogen tetroxide (a storage form of the same gas) & nitrous oxide ... but all of these have that "reddish brown" color which absorbs ambient sunlight, changing it to a longer, reddish wave-length. NO2 is also 1.6 times HEAVIER than air, so it will SINK DOWN from the dark blanket of maroon smog covering the planet (after a Gamma ray burst struck earth, ionizing it, see Jeremiah 25:30-33, Amos 8:9, Isaiah 51:6 & Isaiah 24:18, the "floodgates of heaven" [GRB] are opened --- get it? Sady, NO2 catalyzes destruction of OZONE . . . and OZONE (20--30,000 feet up) is planet earth's SOLE PROTECTION from the sun's deadly, damaging ULTRAVIOLET "B" & "C" rays, screening out almost % 99 of them so we can walk safely on earth;s surface without going blind. AFTER the sky turns color (and all cell phones also die, as satellites were all "fried"), all trees and FOOD CROPS will start to slowly die off. People will actually ENTER CAVES to avoid it (Isaiah 2:17-21) for the sun will "beat people down EVERY MORNING" (read Isaiah 28:18-19 and see)-- get it? A WORLDWIDE FAMINE WILL ARISE -- and it will NOT be peaceful when all economies collapse. Fields will be devoid of food, "NO BUD on the fig tree, NO GRAPE on the grape vine, leaves will wither, no lamb in the pasture...no calf in the stall" (when you read HABAKKUK 3:17 it is clear; also Jeremiah 8:13-15 & Isaiah 17:4 "Jacob's flesh will grow THIN") You may disagree but please notice that I simply am quoting prophecies that are thousands of years old. These are therefore NOT what Trump would call "false facts". And if he and his goons murder me fo simply "quoting some bible verses", uh, won;t a report of that somehow be carried back overseas by a Muslim student with a new degree in Computer Science, one who got drafted when he arrive home --- and assigned to duty in a missile launch site (where he can whisper that report into the ears of the righteous Muslim commander there)? Do you REALLY need a prophet to see that someone of "lying in wait" for his OWN BLOOD (Proverbs 1:12-18). Someone please clue President Trump in on this very important information. After all, he one thing to be prevented is WW3 and cold be like tossing a lit cigarette into a firework stand over there in the Middle East ( read Ezekiel 20:47-49, that fireball is NOT a parable ). Have a nice day!
Since Huang stayed in China quite a while, I have 99% confidence that ccp must have given him a lot of benefit. Otherwise, ccp was a super big fool by its own criteria.
This fellow is a real smooth talker. I find it hard to believe everything he says. China has grown so fast that, the law of physics\economics being what they are. there has got to be some equal\opposite reaction. It's a matter of when. I don't pretend to be able to predict when it will be or what it will look like.
This gentleman has good insight to how the Chinese live !My people are asmall population in the South Pacific,Our economic collaboration with China is small but has been good for us!Our trade relationship has been based on our traditions which is similar in the Chinese Culture,"What is important in life THE PEOPLE!!!
It's minor... Technology transfers and technology licensing is how China gained most of it's tech... Not form stealing. Now it doesn't need it as much - except for maybe semi-conductors. In case you didn't know - much of the tech industry in the US is actually Chinese Americans. You think their brethren back in China aren't as smart as them?
I have BA with a focus in accounting and economics. The case study to focus down on is how Japan had its amazing rise and that same conversation was on the lips of economist about Japans rise up into the 90's. Then seemingly it stagnated in its growth and never recovered again to those percentages seen before Japans crash. China has all those indicators and is undoubtely going to see those same economic factors like debt insolvency, wage increase ceiling, etc. But the big sad difference is China and its economic comparison Japan is that it will never reach that same quality of living standards. Why? Japanese corporate loans system begin to see a massive flux of insolvencies and thats because though lots of cash flow was seen moving around but profits made became nonexistent and thus that buffering margin became zero if not even negative. China will face this in the coming years too but unlike a real democrazt capitalist system operatring the loan distribution system. unfortunately many loans had been given through corrupt means and not based on the true economic vality of the many business. So will see this play out and lets get serious no person nor nation can ignore thyose samwe princle talked about by Adam Smith!!! All his reasoning's apply to this day as well as trhey applied then. communist China gave many many loans as favours rather than based on true economic validity of those business. Thus as wages and other cost increase so will shrink profits to very tight happenings. China isnt going to survive As a nation once the economic screws get tight either.... much internal strive will tear it apart.
Interestingly, I once talked to a Chinese friend of mine aobut about Taiwan. I said that they're only hope was to maintain the status quoe for as long as possible, and that maybe in a hundred years, China would forget that they consider Taiwan to be a part of China. He was silent on that issue. I think that it's likely that he was thinking that the Chinese never forget. Certainly not in a hundred years. I think the Chinese do tend to think more long term than we do. Long term in terms of hundreds of year.
Trouble is Mr. Huang can't bee seen as being overtly critical of China. He still has business interests and an apartment in Beijing. He is not going to bad-mouth China at the risk of losing his home and being detained by authorities next time he sets foot in Beijing.
The talk and insight offered I find very interesting. (Another book to add to my reading list.) At the point (47 minutes in) where Yukon reflects the conventional thought around considering the US dollar as the world's effective reserve currency - I disagree. Yes, the dollar effectively has that status, but that is secondary. There is an important and critical underlying reason. Take this down to an individual level. Say you have acquired substantial wealth. You want to continue enjoying that wealth. Where is the safest place to put your money? China of the present is a very new economy, not entirely stable, and not guaranteed to be stable in the future. What is the safest place for a fraction of your wealth? If China were to do badly, where in the world would you most prefer to live? Put simply, wealthy folk from all over the world are betting there is value in buying a piece of the American context. Looking backwards, they certainly have good reason. As an American, I see a great number of problems in my country. But looking at longer history, most other places have done far worse. As an American, I did not in past know how much my country has served as an ideal and a standard, and for how very long. My predecessors have made a great many mistakes, but compared to the rest of the world, we have muddled along relatively well. So our solid financial base is on selling a dream ... but a dream of substance. :)
In the 60s 70s US$ was 3/ then slowly it dropped to 1.20+- in the 90s. Now it has gone up to 1.30+- . I believed as China grow stronger in the economy, its Yuan will strengthened to 3 or 2.
...But America is obsessed with the word socialism and communism and have merged the two in thinking about the UK, the EU, old USSR, Cuba et al......One could say the US is a mixed political state, that is Socialist (according to may American politicians anything socialist is communism) with all the basic services provided for roads, street lighting, sewers, pavements (oops, sorry Microsoft forgot to force my hand to US English - sidewalks), libraries, fire services, armed forces...that is half your budget on armed forces in approximately 800 sites across the globe and in every bodies back yard...!
Thank you Mr Huang, this was very informative. Anything that goes against the group think of the uninformed is very useful. However there is an irony in your last comments about short term thinking in America. It is certainly true about the level of public debate about China- America relations, but it is not true at the level of strategy pursued at the elite level of American national policy. It is useful to remember Madison’s policy, which became known as the Monroe doctrine. It was formulated before the American revolution, and yet it is still in force today. In a similar way it is worth remembering the multi generational attempt by American administrations to prevent China from becoming a threat to a then future of American hegemony in the Pacific. Remember the vast scale of the Chinese civil war, then followed by the Japanese invasion, which was then followed by the Pacific war. The USA spent vast sums and committed huge military aid budgets to preventing Russia from colonising China under their then proxy Mao Tse Tung. The loss of China in 1945 was an unprecedented failure. It was considerably more significant than the Vietnam war, which is remembered as a loss, although it succeeded in its objective of preventing the Chinese colonisation of South East Asia. The powers that be, who ever “they” are, have decided that now that China is so integrated into the world economy the time has come come to show the new kid on the block who is really in charge. It is not China, and it is not going to be. By showing his hand too soon, in the belief that it would help him to consolidate his control of China, Xi has made a huge strategic mistake. Demographically, technically, intellectually, in terms of leadership savvy Xi has painted himself into a corner. He can’t crush Hong Kong, he can’t interfere in North Korea, or Taiwan, or Vietnam, without risking destabilisation at home. Instead of strengthening the control of the “Communist” Party of China he has actually weakened it. This is going at at exactly the moment of his big 70th birthday of the conquest of China, when he is trying to demonstrate unchallengeable strength. He is unable to respond flexibly to changing circumstances because he is caught up in the imperial mindset of his feudal predecessors. He is a caught up in a new version of “the Great Leap Forward”. The people of China have seen all this before. Every previous dynasty has collapsed at the moment it has succeeded in crushing all dissent domestically and turned outward to try and enforce its will on the wider world. The Chinese government simply fails to comprehend why the rest of the world does not fall into line, just the same way as it failed to fall in line for the Soviets. This is an experiment that has been tried before, and which has failed repeatedly. Trump might seem to be an unlikely instrument to launch such a bold attack on a powerful foe. Forget the puppet and look instead at who is pulling his strings. There is a very clever strategy going on under the public’s nose. Economists are just as guilty of group think as the media and the public.
very articulate americans want everything cheaper and corporations want more profits... regardless what country we re in we all need to study and work hard... tried to hire a high schools student and he couldnt do math or give customers the correct change....very very sad
one thing: no matter how powerful china become, just don't be world police, don't get its nose into other people business. that is a big lesson of america.
Yes, also, what is the number of empty dwellings? and what is the number of people who can't afford them? And how many people who are reportedly lifted out of poverty, living in a shoe-box sized apartment, away from their families, and paying, 80% of their earnings in rent?
Very interesting discussion and view points. There's definitely some truth about factors that contribute to the economic success. However, there is no "perfect" system. The question is, can US and the West tolerate and accept China's ideology as part of our value system? It is NOT ok to have authoritarian government, not OK to have pervasive corruptions at all level that helps to "accelerate" the economy, not OK to discriminate people under "residency" policy, and it's not OK to have such a wide disparity in income level. All it does is to support the communist party which is a very small group of "elite". It is a bit disappointing that Mr. Huang skirted around most of the questions without stating the direct motive of the communist party. However, it is interesting to listen in.
Huang comments on American manufacturing jobs are highly misleading and raise a large question about the quality of his opinions. It is true that American manufacturing jobs recovered a little following the 2009 crash. But the facts of the American non farms payroll show that the United States lost almost 30% of its manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2016. The jobs were largely lost in the two major economic downturns in 2000-2001 and 2008-2009.
I don't think those Americans can understand Huang's , please come to my country, to see this country and real people who live this land, to talk to them, to make friends to them, you will find how ridiculous are those western media is!
Yukon Huang should be standing for president. He is a problem solver. The US needs the reorientation that he could bring. Reminds me very strongly of J K Galbraith. America needs the insights that a person with a Chinese heritage can provide. Where is the political party that can accommodate him?
The last point is particularly salient - that relative growth makes 20 or 30 year economic projections terrible. People in the US don’t understand how powerful it is and are distracted by ‘values’ lol
Chinese political system remains similar regardless of economic progress. China has approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi Jinping to remain in power for life.
@@kevin-hm5rv Incorrect, there are elections in China. It's just not open to the public, which honestly is probably a good thing. The reality is that not all people are equal, and not all votes are equal. Elections in China are open only to party members, and they vote in a tier system. The lowest party members can't vote for members of the politburo, for example, but somebody lower. These people then vote for members on the next tier, and so on. Candidates also must possess requisite credentials. For example, you can't run for the politburo unless you've served three terms as a provincial governor or equivalent.
I can appreciate the internal perspective, but we should expect that any internal perspective discussed by a Chinese national who has lived in China, who prospered in China, would be more forgiving and less critical (even willfully blind to Chinese economic craft that is essentially unethical, manipulative and illegal in many cases), as it is within Chinese culture to honor Chinese society and accomplishments. It is the expectation that every Chinese person honor the nation with words of grace, support, respect, and never condemn or reveal error of the controlling parties initiatives. And so, an eloquent and articulate narrative must be crafted around the problematic issues in China, that will eventually crush China. China has some $38 trillion USD worth of debt obligations floating around in its banking system, in comparison to EU (31 trillion) and US (16 trillion). How China was able to build so much wealth with a labor class of citizens with such low purchasing power, save trillions in foreign reserves, build more than 20 ghost cities, build a military tantamount to the US, send millions of its young people across the world to earn very expensive collegiate diplomas from top level Universities, trotting the globe, buying up assets, businesses, land, natural resources, ports, mines, oil, etc etc....the math doesnt add up. China did not earn this wealth through commerce. China birthed the capital through its banking system, and the world accepts it because the world has been given opportunity to access China's consumer market. Who will say anything against China churning out over $30 trillion USD through bank loans to stoke its economic power, and gobble up global resources when many of the accusers are beneficiaries of the hyper-drive economics stoked by the Chinese debt miracle? At the end of the day, some one will have to pay back all that money with interest.
You always hear the words unethical on any competitors to the West. You think the West is ethical? Give me a break, the West has been exploiting Africa and the rest of the third world for decades and has grown rich on them. Especially the colonial countries like Britain, France, Netherlands etc. The West has been Africa’s main trading partner after they got their freedom and independence and Africa has just got poorer each decade and the West are the ones that have been propping up all the corrupt govts.
Thank you for uploading this interesting video. Agree with most points but he didn't really talk about China being two different countries and what is the solution to resolve this.
Real estate comparison that he gave is totally wrong. Real estate in Delhi vs Beijing is $250 per Sqft (Delhi) / $1550 Per Sq Ft in Beijing. that is 500% more than Delhi. If that is not a bubble, I don't know what is? His argument about debt to GDP ratio is farce.
Rajeev C when says housing in India is double the price of Beijing, I know he is a lier right their. In Beijing it costs more than 1m US dollar not chinese yuan to buy an average decent apartment. He is saying it costs 2m US dollar to buy an apartment in India? Bold and terrible lier.
Hell...New Orleans is a corrupt society (ESPECIALLY politically). Take this from an astute life long resident and don't take it lightly. We are the South Africa of the U.S.
When brics was formed.everything changed. now we have petrodollar and petro yuan. So to question which country is economically stronger. It all depend on which frame of reference you are looking. On brics frame of reference, china is economically stronger. But from petrodollar frame of reference, US is economically stronger.For technical aspect, US is economically stronger unless china technology catch up. So it all depend on which frame of reference you are referring
There is a profound difference between propaganda and economic results. Much of what this man says is true, based primarily on American ignorance about China. I have been living and working as a visiting professor of business here for 11 years. And there is one ironclad fact about Chinese MBAs vs American MBAs that no one can deny; several thousand Chinese MBAs speak English and understand varying amounts of American business practices in the US and for Multinationals doing business in Asia. Their American counterparts from Wharton, Harvard, and other Eurocentric universities, rarely (unless they are Chinese-American) speak Chinese, and have little understanding of Chinese culture and business practices. This gives Asian, and particularly Chinese, MBAs an enormous competitive advantage over their counterparts. If you were a Multinational in Asia, who would you hire for your operations? I know who I would hire. The only area where this gentleman was weak was on the Belt and Road Initiative; but then there are no experts in America on the Belt and Road Initiative, nor are there very many in China. arthur_tafero@yahoo.com for more info on Belt and Road.
In this day and age how quick things change. Look at what trump has done to the American economy over the last 2 years. He has made a drastic turn around. This guy Yukon Huang was so arrogant, talking about China as a demigod .....how wrong he was.
I don't see the propoganda. I simply see a measured proponent of an alternative paradigm, that has validity, by virtue of its strengths, too. The fact that it has positives, doesn't necessarily detract from another political ideology; no system's perfect after all.
Reason and the recognition of Self-Ownership (or Individual Sovereignty) are the fundamental support pillars of all human rights. Which one is China missing? Both of them.
Yukon Huang is the kind of teacher I enjoyed the most in college or graduate school. Whatever “silly” or “dumb” questions in class were asked, they were never dismissed outright or dogmatically but rather patiently answered citing known facts and statistics. One can draw a different conclusion which, however, must be fact based.
This is one of very few brilliant Chinese experts who really know what he is talking about. And this is the one in a long long time that makes me realize there is social scientist that can do real "scientific" research.
GDP growth bubbles are created by exploding debt for non-fungible real estate. GDP today is a measure of narcissism rather than economic activity.
As someone who has spent the past 5 years living and working in China, I find his talk to be an accurate representation of what's happening in China. Many people in China have a pretty positive attitude towards the United States and find it difficult to see how that affection was not reciprocated in the US media. And after my stay here, I tend to agree that the US is more hostile towards China than the other way around.
I wish there are more views for this video to facilitate better understanding of both countries
It’s one of the best lectures to figure out the problems about US , China and the world.
Till 2008 China used to keep its surpluses in US treasuries,but after the bust of the housing bubble US started doing QE ( printing money to pay debt ) . This got China worried . So they came up with OBOR projects were in they loan there savings / surplus money to 65 countries to build infrastructure. Most of this infrastructure is build by Chinese companies using Chinese resources and they get better returns on there loans than what US treasuries gave them. On top of it helps them buy political influence in these 65 countries. This has got America worried .... hence the trade war..... as America can not retaliate militarily against China as it did against the oil rich Arab countries to support their inefficient business.
It's true the US treasuries are no longer a good look for China, but there will always be demand for US treasuries, even after big changes in the global economy.
It's not so much China saving money as the Chinese economy growing exponentially until they can build the Belt and Road projects with their new money. I don't think the returns on Belt and Road loans will be very good. There are already projects that are failing because they were poorly planned by all involved. But the long term benefits of the Belt and Road will be good for all, including the lessons on avoiding bad projects.
@@JinFX There will only be demand for US notes because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. This is unlikely to change barring a global catastrophe, like all out nuclear war or the sudden unexpected disappearance of oil.
The returns on BRI are great for China, perhaps not so much for the host country. But remember that you can't just think of in purely economic terms. Like Huang said in this video, the CCP plenaries largely dropped growth targets in the economy, focusing instead of quality of growth. China's in the midst of a large transformation, and BRI helps that.
The Mongolian corridor, for example, isn't going to give great returns. However, it will secure large and easy access to natural gas, which will transform Northeast China energy demands. The Myanmar and Bangladesh corridors won't give great returns, but it will secure markets for low-end goods so that the Chinese floating population can move into pre-planned cities. CPEC and the Kazakh landbridge won't give great returns, but they play a key role in China's Western development plan.
@@JinFX it sure would not give great return, but sure is better than good money going after bad money buying US debt.
This perspective is the way that China and Chinese sees themselves. His work is probably the most accurate western account of the current attitude of China
When he says 1% of American foreign investment is going to China, how does he define American foreign investment?
He completely fails to mention anything about forced Chinese partnership and transfer of tech.
Then why is it that our American jobs are going away? Where are they going?
I know its old, but the 1% is the trick. Its 1% of the US economy. So 1% is $500 billion. For decades US paid China $500B, way more in actual money than probably all other countries combined. Japan's payment of 20% may only be $2-3B because it has a much smaller economy than the US. (I'm not stating the figures as fact, but as an example!) Be careful how people state things, particularly percentages, because they are relative numbers that hide absolute values. His disparaging US remarks carry no weight when you realise how much debt the US has incurred to China.
Also, he said China could not have benefited from the US because it had no surplus. There is no connection between a debt and a profit. The payments went into building the Chinese military and economic ccp global infrastructure, so of course there is no surplus because it has been invested in their programme. Trump is now attempting to dismantle their world-wide infrastructure and eliminate its supply from the US through trade and/or tariffs.
@@pinabarryscott could it be because few American companies invest in their own research and innovation with a long-term plan instead of a quick buck plan
Finally, a person who truly understands and knows China!! I've lived in China for 17 years...this guy is spot on on everything!
This is how I see it living in China. Perhaps I should buy his book so I can explain it better to my American friends and family
i want to buy his book too. he is so wisdom and intelligent.
Mei Ding me too, but I need Chinese or Spanish version
I grew up in China, then returned to live and work in Beijing for almost ten years recently, I see a lot of flaws in his arguments, things there are far from the rosy pictures he's painting. To put it bluntly, shit may hit the fan in China soon.
cdnski12, do you have any prove to your accusation?
This silly old buffer only gave cold war rhetoric and no substance. It is puzzling why China economy matters to you if you are not jealous, resentful and fear of Chinese achievements. Whether you believe Chinese economy or not, it is not going to change what happensin your own country. It is way better mind your own business instead of praying something bad happens to others which may not even benefit you. Your zero-sum miserable mentality is really sad and despicable. Please get out China, nobody is asking you to stay in China.
What Dr. Huang’s ideas inspire me most is not about re-examining those conventional wisdoms but pointing out that the “Thucydides' Trap” is NOT inevitable, that through more self-reflection 、mutual development and open collaboration, unnecessary conflicts can be avoided and win-win can take the place of win-lose or lose-lose (which is probably where the situation will go based on what’s happening these days).
I think that’s the most significant aspiration that both China and US should keep in mind.
God bless China. God bless US. And God bless a peaceful and prosperous world!
Not so optomistic our us greedy corrupted leaders do not play fair, does not even acknowledge treaty and renege on it later on with party , bully smaller nations into submission, you force to take, plunder, steal... what trust?
Virtually every speaker on economics comes from a biased point of view. Read everything you can to attack any theory presented to you. You will often find they are full of it.
I'm always suspicious of these types from the "Think Tanks" This guy, formerly of the world bank, is now with the Carnegie Inst. which, according to citizens source, is a libertarian org. While what he has to say is very interesting and certainly gives a different perspective as MSM orthe blogosphere, I have my salt shaker out.
keep it out! the all breathe the same breath...Globalism will eradicate the Nations and will make us all equally poor!
Wow, very suspect. Contrarian ideas, some very wrong.
Which facts do you dispute? Or is it that you just don’t like the facts but prefer conventional but incorrect wisdom.
Interesting talk. Conventional wisdom doesn't benefit you anything, it only reinforces what you already believe. Take points from this guy.
I think the key issue is not how we get it right or wrong, but how the new China will work with the rest of world, do we really want a totalitarian regime to be a major player or contributor on the world stage?
NO
Yeah all you know is ideological struggle. Still living in the coldwar era?
I have been living in Shenzhen, China for two years now. I work for a large Chinese Tech company here. I would agree with almost everything he says. Living here has really made me open my eyes about the misconceptions that people in the US has about China and the way the economies works. Both the US and the Chinese economies.
I do disagree with the land ownership/debit issue. For one, he does not go into the whole ghost city issue. According to Baidu, there are 84 Million empty apartments in China. There are so many completely empty cites and pockets of unused buildings just sitting around unused because no one can can afford them, or they are located in places where there is no work. But they keep on building. That somehow, has to put a burden on the debit. How can a construction company spend billions on constructing unused and unsold properties and not have some kind of impact on a debit? There is going to be a reckoning soon. That bubble is going to burst eventually.
84 million apartments is actually nothing when you look at the idea they have about 400 million people they still need to urbanize.
About ghost cities, most "ghost cities" are actually all sold out! The are all built by “开发商”， not government, these people are not stupid, they won't bid for a land and build apartment buildings that won't sell! At least this is the case in coastal areas.
Ghost City is the asset of the government. Are you stupid? It's not an issue. If China wanted and felt like it was the time to move people into the city they would. They are a communist country. Stop using your perspective of evaluating the situation. I realize you don't really get it because China is considered ONE, you do things for your nation. You suffer or work harder for your nation. It is not like the US where you do whatever you want.
Or perhaps population migration into the newly created cities/housing is planned and soon to be realized. I can't see China operating without a long range plan; many in the U.S. are comfortable fantasizing that China lacks foresight and ability to long range plan, hence the plethora of China gonna collapses stories so popular among Western economists. Shenzhen was at one time a nothing city of a bare few thousand people, and the West was quite happy with that. Then, almost overnight, Shenzhen is the Silicon Valley of China and tech people from around the world can't get there fast enough, with their hands out, to get a piece of the action. China is only beginning, and far from finished. Naysayers need to get their heads out of their butts and do some planning of their own, or get left far behind what is emerging. Silicon Valley? Oh yeah, can't neglect to mention America's techies in Silicon Valley homeless or living out of their RVs because they can't pay the rent in what used to be affordable housing in the region -- before the real estate people decided to destroy the local economy with sky high rents and housing prices. $3000 per month rent to sleep on the couch in somebody's living room. Go America. You're so great.
I too live in Shenzhen. When I bought a condo, my building was empty. Most of the units were bought by Hong Kong speculators. Today it is completely occupied and those speculators are laughing at western media about ghost cities. They got a 10 X profit from their ghost condo. BTW, most buyers pay cash, no mortgage. Only the young, without family support, has to deal with a mortgage. That story has been repeated all over China. That also is a problem for the government because of these high prices, young people can't afford to buy a house, just like us. They are trying to change that because Shenzhen's success depends on young smart people to work and live in Shenzhen. The government is implementing housing for these young people at affordable prices. They probably have conditions tied to them for sure. The famous story of ghost cities is Ordos in Inner Mongolia, it was the city that kicked off the ghost city epidemic. Today it is thriving. Why was it empty when the story was written? No schools, no public transportation, no hospitals, no businesses.
www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/06/30/ordos-chinas-most-infamous-ex-ghost-city-continues-rising/#6b8e73ea6877
Is this guy really a serious expert of China’s economy?? Am I the only one who thinks that his opinions are opposite of what is happening from what I am reading to listening to other experts???
Like which other experts? Please name a few.
Mr Huang is spot on. I worked with high level Chinese officials for over 10 years. Too many Americans can't get over their jingoistic mantras. Chinese leaders public and especially private are at the top of their game. Smart, well educated, hard working and clever.
Ethos
this guy is amazingly wise, never saw anybody had so deep insights about China.
Eyeopening, I am shocked, a few perspectives I have heard the first time and yet make such great sense in explaining the debt and land value phenomenon in China.
Americans have a tendency to want to hear only what reinforces their preconceptions . Rather than actually learning something at variance with their prejudice . US images of China are rooted back in the '60's . They have no idea how wrong they are . This Chinese guy is right in what he says . Which is why few Americans will understand it .
Steve Rhodes I think he is actually American, of Chinese descent
Confirmatory Bias
That is a very narrow-minded comment Steve. "US images of China are rooted back in the 60's". Given that hundreds of thousands of Americans per year go to China nowadays, I'm not sure where you get that idea. Where is your evidence that this is true other than your personal bias. Sounds like you have some preconceptions about Americans. I don't know any Americans that have that image of China.
+Steve Rhodes says "This Chinese guy is right in what he says" Are you sure about that? All of what he said? :)
Wow, did you even watch the video? He said at the very beginning that US opinions have recently changed about China. That most Americans see China as the dominant economy. He said this is not actually true. US opinions today are not rooted in the 60's as he clearly stated. Your an idiot.
When corruption is by officials, how does it get into ‘private’ hands?
Watching and hearing Huang now with the benefit of hindsight shows how accurate he is on US and China trade relationship is and his views on the global economy.
Japanese automakers and gov't have yet have yet to allow General Motors to sell tin Japan.
Its hard for many people to conceptualize many things about economy growth and decline.
Good lecture, learned something.
Fantastic talk, and more relevant now than ever. Obviously our leaders have not seen this video or read Mr. Huang's insightful book.
From Number 3 to Number 1economic power in less than 20 years cannot be denied. it is how China has invested its income in improving the lives of its people while the US was number One and now number two has fewer rail links, bus service, growing poverty, lowering nutrition with people buying processed foods, and education standards going down the drain, with growth in drug use, increased medical care, increased credit and financial problems resulting in home foreclosures, is to say something is not right with America that points to throwing the money away by giving the emphasis on handing money out to Pentagon that has always hungered for more wars and a blank check.
Truth can be hurtful, especially to narrow minded, opinionated, and low EQ ones. However, if truth is not respected, mistakes can be made. If mistakes are made, consequences will incur. US is not lack of smart people, thanks to smart approaches it took for years. The key to success is always to respect truth and act accordingly.
I've lived and worked in East Asia as an expat consultant for the last ten years including a couple years in China's Guangdong area, the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and this conversation is spot on!
The lack of criticism of China speaks volumes,
It's not about criticism, it's about why China thinks and behave the way it does. It's like trying to understand Israel's history despite its apartheid state.
So there has to be criticism of China for you to validate any speaks about China. Wow, this is easy, continuing watching BBC, CNN and Fox. Why would you even try to listen to anything positive about China? It clearly cringes you and makes you uncomfortable. Dont force yourself. When the world was praising about the US in the past, i see no complains in that aspect at all. I guess US is indeed perfect.
If anyone could participate in One Belt One Road (OBOR). How come the World bank says over 90% of the OBOR projects employs Chinese company instead of where the infrastructures are built?
OBOR is just a way to solve China's debt problem by allocating its growing debt to other countries while Chinese contractors make the money. If the debts are on foreign countries' backs while Chinese private sectors are making the money. The Chinese government would not have to worry about bankruptcy and continue with the GDP growth.
His comparison of real land values with the rest of the region/world and city population densities is misleading. The reality is that only Chinese citizens are "granted" the right to "lease" (not to be confused with own) a property for a limited number of years (40-70 yrs depending on the property type). Despite his notion that "everyone owns their homes", valuation and compensation for a property is often capricious, particularly when the provincial government wants to allocate rural land for future development (i.e. the state reacquires a property then corruptly (his words) transfers it to an entrepreneur). Rampant speculation has encouraged shoddy, wasteful, and ill-advised over-development. The disparity of real estate values and housing costs rising faster than personal incomes has yielded frighteningly low occupancy rates in these vast new projects resulting in literal "ghost" cities, with most of a city's (poor) inhabitants relegated to the less expensive furthest outer rings. So, while his general insights may be valid, I can only take them at face value as they seem to overlook other truths and necessary info.
Live there to know it
We don't hear the truth about China.
Ever. Because the truth is not good. The Truth is that America and the west have been continually exploited by the Communist Party and their criminal economic policy, politics, and tyranny, while they themselves and their families are getting richer and richer. The Chinese people could all be in the middle class by now (with up to 100 Million+ in the upper middle class to upper class).
Very objective and inspirational. He points out so many things that I have been observing but never realized.
Yukon is one of those China experts who really know the country. However his message is foreign to many westerners because it’s kind of upsetting unlike the kind of Gordon Chang.
Economics theories cannot be conventional and fixated. The world changes. Yukon has really done a good job diving deep into the core of the real world situation and has analyzed things more thoroughly. His views make sense but may not drill into most people's pysche.
Gordon Chang is a clown. Proven wrong again and again and he still insists.
Great window into China for those that do not know the Chinese language, there's very few person that speaks English fluently and understand the West and Chinese economiesthat can convey the happenings in China to the rest of the world.
Very interesting insight from the speaker.
Nomad Girl America invests more on its military and foreign wars, while China invests more on infrastructure and foreign silk routes.
The greatest problem facing humanity are actually the systems and structures of division that separate us. We have created a world where all subsets of humanity, from individuals to nations, compete against each other like players in some complex boardgame. Only ever pausing for cooperation when strategic interests momentarily align. Without finding solutions to break down this system we've created for ourselves, we are all doomed to conflict. With the ever increasing destructiveness of our weapons, it is mathematical certainty that we will one day destroy each other along with all the unfortunate species with which we share this planet. Now a lesser mind may think that eliminating their "enemies" will provide the solution. Until they find new enemies within the smaller circles they've created. This will never end until the thinking behind the "us and them" mentality ends. People do have a tendency to agree with and be selectively cognizant of information that agrees with their personal opinions, biases, prejudices, and dogma. The worst part is not this though. It is the refusal to accept contradicting information that challenges the dogma. This is true for all people on all sides of every spectrum. We can begin to break this down by first identifying the building blocks of these structures. There are many obvious ones and some are between the lines in this video. Having the ability to empathize is also a good start.
Mr. Huang discussion is very interesting. The idea is not rather he is right or wrong but does he offer an opportunity economist to revist the reasoning used to arrive at economic conclusions ie. American vs Chines;. long term vs short term has in it a very valuable lesson.
What's wrong with FAIR trade?....In spite of the dollar, we've had politicians that didn't care about fair trade in exchange for free trade...
Wonderful thoughts from a highly informed person.
I have yet to see anyone seriously discussing the effects of the one child policy in China. Correct me if I have it wrong, but I see a disaster in the making. An ageing and shrinking population would have a massive effect on economic and social issues. I also think that there will be negative consequences of the building of so many ghost cities and the over-emphasis of wealth being linked primarily to home ownership.
You are somewhat right. Aging rapidly is a serious issue. People are less and less willing to marry and bore a child. Govt has to come up with a solution. For the ghost cities. It’s much more of lesser problem than it was five six years ago. These were never a problem in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai, since people still keep flooding to them and housing market is still a sell market. It was a problem for tier 2 and tier 3 cities 5 or 6 years ago because so much housing was built but nobody was coming there. Somehow for the last five years people are more placing more interests from Beijing Shanghai to tier 2 and tier 3 cities since policies are starting to favor them. Overall, ghost cities is not a big in my opinion since urban housing is still a rigid demand as long as modernization is ongoing.
Take a shot every time he says "my book." :)
As an American... I want a great China with a happy middle class pursuing their own freedoms and dreams, does the Communist party want the same thing?
U r so kind n beautiful.Thank u dear
fllamber the second largest muslim ethnicity in China is Hui, which is almost as big as urghuls. They also have their own autonomic state in china, “ning xia”. So you have to ask yourself, why only urghuls are singled out in this particular event, but not Hui, and nor even tibetans? It’s because some urghuls are pro independence of a made up country so called “east turkestan”, and their movements are funded by the US and Turkey, and they are responsible for almost 100%, if not all, of the terrorism happened in China. Just look it up on wiki.
The same question can go back to you, does american political parties truly want your happiness? Or they have their own agendas as well? No need to play god when you are not.
殊途同归。人生百态 did you not understand what she was implying here?
We the Asians just want to live freely with no one bombing us... Does the US want the same??? 🤔
LOL All these comments saying he is wrong and now two years later his predictions are coming true!
That's because no single person is going to be an all-powerful guru. Even the highest level "brain trust" in China, with access to the most sensitive information, would no doubt have differing ideas, predictions, and recommendations.
Huang is correct in predicting the trade disputes intensifying in China. He's also correct in that the "asset bubble" in China is not quite as terrible when you compare to comparable cities like Mumbai or New York.
However, he's wrong about the damage of the hukou system, because this system allowed the command part of a mixed economy to function. He also speaks as though higher growth is better, which it isn't. Too much growth results in corruption, inefficiency, etc.
Finally, Huang is an economist, so anything he says about politics needs to be taken with a bigger grain of salt. For example, I personally disagree that China will liberalize politically if it reaches the per capita incomes of ROC, because the Chinese view it as a failed democracy. Social stability also has a heavy emotional aspect, which Huang fails to address.
I mean, not really. China isn't more liberal today, just the opposite, in fact. The introduction of the social credit system has been disastrous for civil liberties. Censorship is as prevalent if not more than in 2017, and the CCP has proven itself to be exploitative and predatory when it comes to international business, and the "debt bubble" has nothing to do with ownership of private property but the construction of "ghost cities" which prop up the Chinese GDP.
what predictions, sorry i havent watched the video yet
Kyle Simon credit system has long been established in the US. What about the censorship in the US? And where are these ghost towns now your media were so passionate talking about? Have you seen any of them yourself or just assume that your media are so fair and balanced that they are all truth nothing but the truth?
@@choijulian6704 Follow SerpenZa and LaoWhy on RUclips and you could check out yourself. No offense.
China has successfully drafted a strategy that uses enables synergies between urban and rural development to be used profitably to improve the living conditions in the rural areas while at the same time reducing the cost of labour and living in the urban areas. This is the reason why migrant workers have returned to their villages after their career, to become farmers with greater financial capital that has enabled the to afford agricultural equipments to boost their productivity. Kudos to china. Let the west stop making baseless comparisons but rather take into consideration the context of both countries in relation to development.
Thanks this been very interesting insight on China Mr. Huang
Thank you veryuch Mr. HUANG for this enlightenment, 可是，您可不可以技术m改一下，中国的地下經濟对这面的经济的影响如何？謝謝
@@jdemeulenaer123 he doesn't read chinese. you have to write it down in english. his parents brought him to the states when he was 5 years old. he doesn't speak nor read chinese.
I read two years ago about general satisfactory survey on Chinese citizens that 89% were satisfied with CCP’s rule.
This guy is very very interesting. I would love to hear him debate with another person who is also well informed and has different conclusions.
After spending a couple months traveling in China, I can say that I very much agree with him that the western view of China is just plainly wrong. Also the Chinese view of China is opaque since there certainly is strong restrictions on the freedom to speak. Instead of spending time debating politics, it seems like the Chinese spend that energy cooking really great food and working hard and studying hard to create a better future for all of China.
China is a very fascinating place. Chinese culture is really interesting too. I really hope that we in the west will get off of the high horse a little more often and learn from the Chinese. What he said about the long term planning is so so huge, you have no idea!
Tom, it's the Ashkenazic propaganda effect. Just about every American who has visited China (especially Shanghai) went home in shock witnessing the beauty and advance in every aspect...
Actually chinese like to talk about politics, even the taxi drivers in beijing would keep babbling about politics ( it’s well know among chinese). We just dont have those political talk shows on tv, but people talk among themselves, and also on internet. Travelling for 2 months might not give you a full view of china as you need to be able to read Chinese and use the chinese websites to be able to see those complains and discussions about social issues. The freedom of speech is limited to the point that you probably cant doubt the legitimacy of the party, and something along that line. But usual social and political issues are generally ok, pollutions, inequality, and even corruptions, there are all sorts of topics being discussed online, like weibo, wangyi, bilibili, zhihu to name a few. on wechat people also forward and spread stuff. My take on this is that chinese gov is ok with you complaining about actual practical issues that they can improve on and help you with, because as long as they tackle your complains, you are happy, and they are safe. But they dont want you dy-stabilize the society by questioning their legitimacy and political foundation which they are not able to change for you.
Rich people drive the conversations in the US. The income inequility is the the problem. Every time a crisis hit, they let the people blame some other country. In fact, the rich got richer every single crisis.
Livefree Ordie LOL more like free market economy brings everyone up it’s called upper mobility no other nation in the world like the US. Freedom created wellbeing and possibilities of economic success for everyone
Interesting presentation but I Don t agree with many of the assumption as I am an industrial and building plants in usa, so most electronic come from china, when there is Chinese new year you can t get any electronic components as usa company Don t stock nothing .lately I bought diesel pump from germany, so it has been shipped in usa through china like the rest, so that is my experience and here in new an gland most plants have move to china that is a fact...
I find this guy's insights to be very on the mark for China.
Productivity has always been presented as a good thing. That would only be true if the market for your product is limitless. If there's a limit to the demand for your product, then increased productivity would have to be accompanied by loss of jobs. If people losse their jobs, there are fewer people to buy the goods or services that are now delivered more effeciently with fewer and fewer poeple.
One Belt One Road is a drive to decouple Eurasia from US controlled global economy and thus render US financial and military power irrelevant. This initiative works for China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Central Asia, it may work for India eventually but will always be against US interest
Elena Sharipova, MD ! After the complete loss of their(French, British, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, Belgian, Italian & not to speak of Danish) colonies and winding up of Empires, West Europe is in dire economic straits. It views PRC as a potential market & PRC knows it- their need. Hence the OBOR & an opportunity to invest the humongous accumulation of cash reserves (apart from American Bonds). People read too much of altruism in this.
Other people's success is always against the US interest or at the expense of the US...how pitiful!
@@sunlodge6 stupid...you are surely anti westerner blaming everything to US.. Funny you
Very perceptive. Do you know how the earth can be "darkened on a clear day"? I do. Air is composed of %78 nitrogen (N2) and %20 oxygen (O2). When ionized, air then reacts chemically with itself, forming red-brown NITROGEN DIOXIDE (a deep maroon colored gas). The reaction is as follows: none molecule of N2 + two molecules of O2 = 2NO2. You'll get a series of nitrogen compounds, esp. di-nitrogen tetroxide (a storage form of the same gas) & nitrous oxide ... but all of these have that "reddish brown" color which absorbs ambient sunlight, changing it to a longer, reddish wave-length. NO2 is also 1.6 times HEAVIER than air, so it will SINK DOWN from the dark blanket of maroon smog covering the planet (after a Gamma ray burst struck earth, ionizing it, see Jeremiah 25:30-33, Amos 8:9, Isaiah 51:6 & Isaiah 24:18, the
"floodgates of heaven" [GRB] are opened --- get it?
Sady, NO2 catalyzes destruction of OZONE . . . and OZONE (20--30,000 feet up) is planet earth's SOLE PROTECTION from the sun's deadly, damaging ULTRAVIOLET "B" & "C" rays, screening out almost % 99 of them so we can walk safely on earth;s surface without going blind. AFTER the sky turns color (and all cell phones also die, as satellites were all "fried"),
all trees and FOOD CROPS will start to slowly die off. People will actually ENTER CAVES
to avoid it (Isaiah 2:17-21) for the sun will "beat people down EVERY MORNING" (read Isaiah 28:18-19 and see)-- get it? A WORLDWIDE FAMINE WILL ARISE -- and it will NOT be peaceful
when all economies collapse. Fields will be devoid of food, "NO BUD on the fig tree, NO GRAPE on the grape vine, leaves will wither, no lamb in the pasture...no calf in the stall" (when you read HABAKKUK 3:17 it is clear; also Jeremiah 8:13-15 & Isaiah 17:4 "Jacob's flesh will grow THIN")
You may disagree but please notice that I simply am quoting prophecies that are thousands of years old. These are therefore NOT what Trump would call "false facts". And if he and his goons murder me fo simply "quoting some bible verses", uh, won;t a report of that somehow be carried back overseas by a Muslim student with a new degree in Computer Science, one who got drafted when he arrive home --- and assigned to duty in a missile launch site (where he can whisper that report into the ears of the righteous Muslim commander there)? Do you REALLY
need a prophet to see that someone of "lying in wait" for his OWN BLOOD (Proverbs 1:12-18).
Someone please clue President Trump in on this very important information. After all, he one thing to be prevented is WW3 and cold be like tossing a lit cigarette into a firework stand
over there in the Middle East ( read Ezekiel 20:47-49, that fireball is NOT a parable ).
Have a nice day!
@@TsebT Listen Peter Pan, keep your head inside your ass boy...
Very prescient isn't it? Look at the tariff war that's broken out 18 months after he predicted it.
Thank you, Mr. Huang, You are a genuine economist indeed.
China does not play same capitalism role but they are doing Neo Mercantilism what Japan did until 1980s.
Denny the Davinchi Japan was actually innovative China is NOT and is just stealing IP.
Alfred Vinciguerra what are you using this to type on btw?
I don't know which side this guy is on politically, but he's good!
Since Huang stayed in China quite a while, I have 99% confidence that ccp must have given him a lot of benefit. Otherwise, ccp was a super big fool by its own criteria.
Outstanding
This fellow is a real smooth talker. I find it hard to believe everything he says. China has grown so fast that, the law of physics\economics being what they are. there has got to be some equal\opposite reaction. It's a matter of when. I don't pretend to be able to predict when it will be or what it will look like.
This gentleman has good insight to how the Chinese live !My people are asmall population in the South Pacific,Our economic collaboration with China is small but has been good for us!Our trade relationship has been based on our traditions which is similar in the Chinese Culture,"What is important in life THE PEOPLE!!!
this is a man who really understand China
The moderator has to raise his level of understanding the topic before moderating.
Interesting views with good questions from the moderator. Qns helped us to understand in further depth. TQ
Outstanding!
Did he ever talk about intellectual theft from the US? That's an interesting topic.
It's minor... Technology transfers and technology licensing is how China gained most of it's tech... Not form stealing. Now it doesn't need it as much - except for maybe semi-conductors. In case you didn't know - much of the tech industry in the US is actually Chinese Americans. You think their brethren back in China aren't as smart as them?
Canada is at the forfrontof Medical, and A/IResearch...The problem exists in Canada.....
@@Amidat They probably are as smart but in China you need to kiss some CCP a@@ as wel as R&D which impedes with results.
I have BA with a focus in accounting and economics. The case study to focus down on is how Japan had its amazing rise and that same conversation was on the lips of economist about Japans rise up into the 90's. Then seemingly it stagnated in its growth and never recovered again to those percentages seen before Japans crash. China has all those indicators and is undoubtely going to see those same economic factors like debt insolvency, wage increase ceiling, etc. But the big sad difference is China and its economic comparison Japan is that it will never reach that same quality of living standards. Why? Japanese corporate loans system begin to see a massive flux of insolvencies and thats because though lots of cash flow was seen moving around but profits made became nonexistent and thus that buffering margin became zero if not even negative. China will face this in the coming years too but unlike a real democrazt capitalist system operatring the loan distribution system. unfortunately many loans had been given through corrupt means and not based on the true economic vality of the many business. So will see this play out and lets get serious no person nor nation can ignore thyose samwe princle talked about by Adam Smith!!! All his reasoning's apply to this day as well as trhey applied then.
communist China gave many many loans as favours rather than based on true economic validity of those business. Thus as wages and other cost increase so will shrink profits to very tight happenings. China isnt going to survive As a nation once the economic screws get tight either.... much internal strive will tear it apart.
Shane Reinholdt Well taken, but the return of China is unstoppable. Continue to pray for its downfall.
You wish
Interestingly, I once talked to a Chinese friend of mine aobut about Taiwan. I said that they're only hope was to maintain the status quoe for as long as possible, and that maybe in a hundred years, China would forget that they consider Taiwan to be a part of China. He was silent on that issue. I think that it's likely that he was thinking that the Chinese never forget. Certainly not in a hundred years. I think the Chinese do tend to think more long term than we do. Long term in terms of hundreds of year.
Bob Channell . Well, the Chinese did ask for Hong Kong to be handled back. And to the credit of the Brits, they agreed.
Chinese still remember 1840.
Trouble is Mr. Huang can't bee seen as being overtly critical of China. He still has business interests and an apartment in Beijing. He is not going to bad-mouth China at the risk of losing his home and being detained by authorities next time he sets foot in Beijing.
The talk and insight offered I find very interesting. (Another book to add to my reading list.)
At the point (47 minutes in) where Yukon reflects the conventional thought around considering the US dollar as the world's effective reserve currency - I disagree. Yes, the dollar effectively has that status, but that is secondary. There is an important and critical underlying reason.
Take this down to an individual level. Say you have acquired substantial wealth. You want to continue enjoying that wealth. Where is the safest place to put your money?
China of the present is a very new economy, not entirely stable, and not guaranteed to be stable in the future. What is the safest place for a fraction of your wealth? If China were to do badly, where in the world would you most prefer to live?
Put simply, wealthy folk from all over the world are betting there is value in buying a piece of the American context. Looking backwards, they certainly have good reason.
As an American, I see a great number of problems in my country. But looking at longer history, most other places have done far worse.
As an American, I did not in past know how much my country has served as an ideal and a standard, and for how very long. My predecessors have made a great many mistakes, but compared to the rest of the world, we have muddled along relatively well.
So our solid financial base is on selling a dream ... but a dream of substance. :)
china gained sdr as an international currency, three years ago? recent, can count the months..and declining value
In the 60s 70s US$ was 3/ then slowly it dropped to 1.20+- in the 90s. Now it has gone up to 1.30+- .
I believed as China grow stronger in the economy, its Yuan will strengthened to 3 or 2.
I would say it’s safer to live in the US if you are rich. But it’s safer to live in China if you are poor or just common
He constantly avoided the problems of Communism both socially and economically.
...But America is obsessed with the word socialism and communism and have merged the two in thinking about the UK, the EU, old USSR, Cuba et al......One could say the US is a mixed political state, that is Socialist (according to may American politicians anything socialist is communism) with all the basic services provided for roads, street lighting, sewers, pavements (oops, sorry Microsoft forgot to force my hand to US English - sidewalks), libraries, fire services, armed forces...that is half your budget on armed forces in approximately 800 sites across the globe and in every bodies back yard...!
Thank you Mr Huang, this was very informative. Anything that goes against the group think of the uninformed is very useful. However there is an irony in your last comments about short term thinking in America. It is certainly true about the level of public debate about China- America relations, but it is not true at the level of strategy pursued at the elite level of American national policy.
It is useful to remember Madison’s policy, which became known as the Monroe doctrine. It was formulated before the American revolution, and yet it is still in force today. In a similar way it is worth remembering the multi generational attempt by American administrations to prevent China from becoming a threat to a then future of American hegemony in the Pacific. Remember the vast scale of the Chinese civil war, then followed by the Japanese invasion, which was then followed by the Pacific war.
The USA spent vast sums and committed huge military aid budgets to preventing Russia from colonising China under their then proxy Mao Tse Tung. The loss of China in 1945 was an unprecedented failure. It was considerably more significant than the Vietnam war, which is remembered as a loss, although it succeeded in its objective of preventing the Chinese colonisation of South East Asia.
The powers that be, who ever “they” are, have decided that now that China is so integrated into the world economy the time has come come to show the new kid on the block who is really in charge. It is not China, and it is not going to be.
By showing his hand too soon, in the belief that it would help him to consolidate his control of China, Xi has made a huge strategic mistake. Demographically, technically, intellectually, in terms of leadership savvy Xi has painted himself into a corner. He can’t crush Hong Kong, he can’t interfere in North Korea, or Taiwan, or Vietnam, without risking destabilisation at home. Instead of strengthening the control of the “Communist” Party of China he has actually weakened it.
This is going at at exactly the moment of his big 70th birthday of the conquest of China, when he is trying to demonstrate unchallengeable strength. He is unable to respond flexibly to changing circumstances because he is caught up in the imperial mindset of his feudal predecessors. He is a caught up in a new version of “the Great Leap Forward”.
The people of China have seen all this before. Every previous dynasty has collapsed at the moment it has succeeded in crushing all dissent domestically and turned outward to try and enforce its will on the wider world. The Chinese government simply fails to comprehend why the rest of the world does not fall into line, just the same way as it failed to fall in line for the Soviets. This is an experiment that has been tried before, and which has failed repeatedly.
Trump might seem to be an unlikely instrument to launch such a bold attack on a powerful foe. Forget the puppet and look instead at who is pulling his strings. There is a very clever strategy going on under the public’s nose. Economists are just as guilty of group think as the media and the public.
"All generalizations are false. Including this one." -- Mark Twain
with pleasure, I love to watch economists and their older interviews says so much about how 'great' they are.
very articulate
americans want everything cheaper and corporations want more profits...
regardless what country we re in we all need to study and work hard... tried to hire a high schools student and he couldnt do math or give customers the correct change....very very sad
one thing: no matter how powerful china become, just don't be world police, don't get its nose into other people business. that is a big lesson of america.
Like this man
Two words: "Empty Cities"
Yes, also, what is the number of empty dwellings? and what is the number of people who can't afford them? And how many people who are reportedly lifted out of poverty, living in a shoe-box sized apartment, away from their families, and paying, 80% of their earnings in rent?
Very interesting discussion and view points. There's definitely some truth about factors that contribute to the economic success. However, there is no "perfect" system. The question is, can US and the West tolerate and accept China's ideology as part of our value system? It is NOT ok to have authoritarian government, not OK to have pervasive corruptions at all level that helps to "accelerate" the economy, not OK to discriminate people under "residency" policy, and it's not OK to have such a wide disparity in income level. All it does is to support the communist party which is a very small group of "elite". It is a bit disappointing that Mr. Huang skirted around most of the questions without stating the direct motive of the communist party. However, it is interesting to listen in.
Huang comments on American manufacturing jobs are highly misleading and raise a large question about the quality of his opinions. It is true that American manufacturing jobs recovered a little following the 2009 crash. But the facts of the American non farms payroll show that the United States lost almost 30% of its manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2016. The jobs were largely lost in the two major economic downturns in 2000-2001 and 2008-2009.
China is wonderful country, great economy, freedom, low cost food and housing.....
Please move there!!
Well yes, but actually no
I don't think those Americans can understand Huang's , please come to my country, to see this country and real people who live this land, to talk to them, to make friends to them, you will find how ridiculous are those western media is!
"Conventional Wisdom" is the pits. Totally agreed.
Yukon Huang should be standing for president. He is a problem solver. The US needs the reorientation that he could bring. Reminds me very strongly of J K Galbraith. America needs the insights that a person with a Chinese heritage can provide. Where is the political party that can accommodate him?
Erl Happ yes a ccp propagandist for us president ..
The last point is particularly salient - that relative growth makes 20 or 30 year economic projections terrible.
People in the US don’t understand how powerful it is and are distracted by ‘values’ lol
Chinese political system remains similar regardless of economic progress.
China has approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi Jinping to remain in power for life.
@Dan Man But in these countries, voters choose their leaders. In China, there is no election.
@@kevin-hm5rv are you sure you chose the Queen?
@@kevin-hm5rv Incorrect, there are elections in China. It's just not open to the public, which honestly is probably a good thing. The reality is that not all people are equal, and not all votes are equal.
Elections in China are open only to party members, and they vote in a tier system. The lowest party members can't vote for members of the politburo, for example, but somebody lower. These people then vote for members on the next tier, and so on. Candidates also must possess requisite credentials. For example, you can't run for the politburo unless you've served three terms as a provincial governor or equivalent.
I can appreciate the internal perspective, but we should expect that any internal perspective discussed by a Chinese national who has lived in China, who prospered in China, would be more forgiving and less critical (even willfully blind to Chinese economic craft that is essentially unethical, manipulative and illegal in many cases), as it is within Chinese culture to honor Chinese society and accomplishments. It is the expectation that every Chinese person honor the nation with words of grace, support, respect, and never condemn or reveal error of the controlling parties initiatives. And so, an eloquent and articulate narrative must be crafted around the problematic issues in China, that will eventually crush China. China has some $38 trillion USD worth of debt obligations floating around in its banking system, in comparison to EU (31 trillion) and US (16 trillion). How China was able to build so much wealth with a labor class of citizens with such low purchasing power, save trillions in foreign reserves, build more than 20 ghost cities, build a military tantamount to the US, send millions of its young people across the world to earn very expensive collegiate diplomas from top level Universities, trotting the globe, buying up assets, businesses, land, natural resources, ports, mines, oil, etc etc....the math doesnt add up. China did not earn this wealth through commerce. China birthed the capital through its banking system, and the world accepts it because the world has been given opportunity to access China's consumer market. Who will say anything against China churning out over $30 trillion USD through bank loans to stoke its economic power, and gobble up global resources when many of the accusers are beneficiaries of the hyper-drive economics stoked by the Chinese debt miracle? At the end of the day, some one will have to pay back all that money with interest.
This lecture is very great to listen to prof!
You always hear the words unethical on any competitors to the West. You think the West is ethical? Give me a break, the West has been exploiting Africa and the rest of the third world for decades and has grown rich on them. Especially the colonial countries like Britain, France, Netherlands etc. The West has been Africa’s main trading partner after they got their freedom and independence and Africa has just got poorer each decade and the West are the ones that have been propping up all the corrupt govts.
Thank you for uploading this interesting video. Agree with most points but he didn't really talk about China being two different countries and what is the solution to resolve this.
Real estate comparison that he gave is totally wrong. Real estate in Delhi vs Beijing is $250 per Sqft (Delhi) / $1550 Per Sq Ft in Beijing. that is 500% more than Delhi. If that is not a bubble, I don't know what is? His argument about debt to GDP ratio is farce.
Rajeev C when says housing in India is double the price of Beijing, I know he is a lier right their. In Beijing it costs more than 1m US dollar not chinese yuan to buy an average decent apartment. He is saying it costs 2m US dollar to buy an apartment in India? Bold and terrible lier.
Imagine the house price in new york is suddenly 10 million per sq ft. And that won't be a bubble. Because there won't be any trade!
www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=China&city1=Beijing&country2=India&city2=Delhi
versus.com/en/mumbai-vs-shanghai
~$11k vs $12k / sqm www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/India/square-meter-prices
Mr. Huang, you should have a conversation with Gordon Chang and the alike.
Gordon Guthrie Chang is a braindead Moron.
Yukon should not waste his time talking to Gordon Guthrie Chang.
Hell...New Orleans is a corrupt society (ESPECIALLY politically). Take this from an astute life long resident and don't take it lightly. We are the South Africa of the U.S.
yukon "conventional wisdom" huang
He's an infiltrator for the PRC.
Could it be that is not in Chinese culture to promote themselves? Chinese are very modest when it comes to get credit for doing good.
Good to see different perspective. Thought provoking ideas here.
I'm not holding my breath on validity.
When brics was formed.everything changed. now we have petrodollar and petro yuan.
So to question which country is economically stronger. It all depend on which frame of reference you are looking. On brics frame of reference, china is economically stronger. But from petrodollar frame of reference, US is economically stronger.For technical aspect, US is economically stronger unless china technology catch up.
So it all depend on which frame of reference you are referring
The best English-speaking propagandist Beijing has. I mean that as a compliment. He spreads it on really thick without being offensive.
Kevin Dwyer yelp.. a lot of comments here from the 50 cent army praising him too
He spreads it on thick. He makes it sound like China can do no wrong.
There is a profound difference between propaganda and economic results. Much of what this man says is true, based primarily on American ignorance about China. I have been living and working as a visiting professor of business here for 11 years. And there is one ironclad fact about Chinese MBAs vs American MBAs that no one can deny; several thousand Chinese MBAs speak English and understand varying amounts of American business practices in the US and for Multinationals doing business in Asia. Their American counterparts from Wharton, Harvard, and other Eurocentric universities, rarely (unless they are Chinese-American) speak Chinese, and have little understanding of Chinese culture and business practices. This gives Asian, and particularly Chinese, MBAs an enormous competitive advantage over their counterparts. If you were a Multinational in Asia, who would you hire for your operations? I know who I would hire. The only area where this gentleman was weak was on the Belt and Road Initiative; but then there are no experts in America on the Belt and Road Initiative, nor are there very many in China. arthur_tafero@yahoo.com for more info on Belt and Road.
In this day and age how quick things change. Look at what trump has done to the American economy over the last 2 years. He has made a drastic turn around.
This guy Yukon Huang was so arrogant, talking about China as a demigod .....how wrong he was.
I don't see the propoganda. I simply see a measured proponent of an alternative paradigm, that has validity, by virtue of its strengths, too. The fact that it has positives, doesn't necessarily detract from another political ideology; no system's perfect after all.
Reason and the recognition of Self-Ownership (or Individual Sovereignty) are the fundamental support pillars of all human rights. Which one is China missing?
Both of them.
Extraordinary insights about the difference between China's systems and institutions and USA. I benefited a lot from his talk.
Mei Ding fuck off communist