How China Can Revive Its Economy with Yukon Huang
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- Опубликовано: 27 мар 2023
- On March 5th, Chinese outgoing Premier Li Keqiang opened the National People’s Congress meeting with his annual Work Report and revealed a growth target of lowest “around 5%”, the lowest since 1976. For decades, the country had expanded by more than 10% annually. Even though China missed its target last year by a wide margin due to its zero-Covid policy, not many people expected this low of a target from Xi Jinping’s government. This highlights the domestic and global challenges the world’s second-largest economy is facing. What will China’s economic outlook will look like? What kind of economic policy will China need to adopt to revive its economy? Where is the future of the U.S-China economic relationship? Join us for a conversation with Dr. Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Former Work Bank’s country director for China on Tuesday, March 28th from 12 PM to 1:15 PM ET. This webinar is the 2nd of Network 20/20’s Deep Dives: China program. Learn more at: network2020.org/deep-dives-ch...
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2:05 What’s the current situation of China?
6:05 Were these challenges created by previous Chinese policies?
9:06 Issues and challenges with productivity
11:30 Successful outdated policies (as per his SCMP article)
12:25 On migrant workers in China
18:05 China as a rational actor and why won’t they make these changes
22:40 China’s financial state right now
25:25 Trump’s Trade War with China
26:20 Biden administration and China
33:00 US foreign policy should focus on separating Russia and China
38:20 Technological concerns and Huawei
41:00 China’s exchange rate exceeding the US
46:10 Solving climate change
47:30 RMB currency as a world currency
51:35 Successes and Failures of the Belt and Road Initiative
55:00 Economic strategy vs security strategy
59:00 China’s demographic
1:05:00 Manufactured goods, imports and exports
1:09:00 China’s growth and consequences on the world stage
Excellent analysis. China Central Government has a different agenda than the west. Although western economists like Yukon Huang has some good ideas but they may be incompatible with the long term Chinese goal. It is true Huang can increase the China GDP overall by certain changes and optimisations of say make one big city more productive at the expense of thinning out the population of some rural areas. This can be done by allowing the migratory workers freely relocate. China will then grow higher GDP, have big cities even bigger and many smaller cities and their regional governments will be disadvantaged and made poorer.
It should be obvious that China has decided to manage the country different to the west. US is possibly the best example because once you step outside the big cities like New York, Chicago or California the rest of the rural America is quite backwards and lack of infrastructure. Many rural areas are dying with population progressively winding down and business relocated. Chinese model is common prosperity so that the rural areas are not left behind. In recent years due to the competitiveness in the big cities many young graduates find better career and job opportunity by returning back to their home towns. They could achieve a higher income by using the learned new technology, Internet skill, AI and digital industries on traditional farming and related industries.
Education system is another example. The west would concentrate on the best schools with the best teachers. China is changing this too by rotating the teachers national wide so that some rural areas could suddenly have top notch teachers available to revive their academic fortune This policy will no doubt make prestigious school harder to remain prestigious for ever but it does spread education opportunity more evenly. Time will tell if such policy will succeed or not but China's effort in bringing common prosperity to all should be commended.
Lastly the migration control is universally used by many countries like Australia and Canada. Ne immigrants are allocated to areas where their skills could be best utilised. In China the Chinese people could go to anywhere that pays the best wages and benefits with their domiciled addresses as the primary record for state benefits. This has a good effect in controlling the population movement. While it isn't as free as in the west it also has no immigration issue causing headache in the west. Take UK for example all the migrants want to go to London and nowhere else so UK has for ever has an immigration problem that it can never resolved.
China has over 1.4 billion people and so far the governance system has proved stable, progressive and sustainable. Applying western standard and methods could inadvertently break a good system up. Take the HSR, metro system and electrical power generation for example. China's plan is to develop the whole country so the HSR spreads throughout the country and not like EU or Japan concentrating on a corridor or an isolated patch. The number of metro is also extensive to ensure the Chinese people can get to most places by public transport without cars which are essential in the west at the cost of a huge consumption fossil oil that China doesn't have. China makes twice the electrical power of US but has 4 times the population so each Chinese effectively consumes half the electricity every American uses. Yet China could maintain as the work's factory by having Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission system reach every corner of the country that is unavailable outside China. Any attempt to alter its population pattern can be a total mismatch with the long term planning of the Central Government.
In conclusion while I agree with the Speaker Yukon Huang's analysis but disagree with his proposals would be beneficial to China. Huang's goal is purely economic and has a fatal flaw of ignoring overall governance of China and its long term goal. From my own observation Chinese Central Government doesn't want to make every Chinese rich. It wants each one to be happy because the community provided is sustainable, designed for the common good and most important equitable. China up to 1980 was poorer than every country in Africa except two (Uganda and Bissau Guinea). The people did not abandoned but supported the government because people could be happy sharing pain and reward together. To have the American's top 10% having the same wealth of the bottom 90% isn't what China or the Chinese people want to end up with.
My goodness that was quite a dissertation! I’m sorry there wasn’t anything original or even thoughtful there though, obviously being thoughtful wasn’t your goal. Collect your 无毛 and be happy!
I agree with your thesis and with due respect to Yukong, his views is so biased towards an American way of thinking. Governing a 1.4 billion population with more than 800 million people still living below USD10,000 per annum is a problem and it takes a great deal of effort to balance the economy and the citizen's wellbeing. Those experts who had not govern a country will not have that profundity.
Correction, the top 1% elites (filthy rich oligarchs) control 90% of the total wealth resulting in extreme wide gap in income and wealth. This modern economic slavery causes homelessness, extreme poverty, high medical cost, and economic n political inequality. That's what China wants to avoid.
Very interesting insights; thanks for sharing. ☮️
@@gstlb Do you know "无毛" = *NO HAIR* ?
The lady interviewer talked about security threat from China which is difficult to understand. China does not have any military base near to the US; but the opposite is true. Did she mean that the enhanced ability of China to protect itself means threat to the US.
Kinda yes. US as a hegemony needs to protect its allies. Unfortunately Taiwan is the ally. US also ideologically believes it needs to protect Democracy. Taiwan is a democracy and free society.
Yukon Huang is one of the best minds in economics in the world. He is incisive, precise and unbiased in his comment on world affairs in general and economics in particular . An economics professor par excellence! You'll never get tired of listening to Prof Yukon Huang!
Yeah, I saw his earlier videos from 6 years ago and he was so on point. Hunting up his more recent interviews now. I think outside the CPC, Dr. Huang has one of the best understanding of China's economy and challenges than anybody I know, even Jeffrey Sachs.
Mr. Huang is such a wonderful guest. I love his no nonsense pure economic analysis and insights.
There are many interesting ideas, but they are not realistic. China is not a purely capitalist country. There are background reasons why the population cannot move freely. State-owned enterprises must also undertake more social responsibilities, and are not purely profit-oriented.
China is pragmatic, if the fruits are low and easy to pick, they will pick them.
Yukon Huang is phenomenal. So concise and on point!
Yukon is a economic gem. Wonder if Washington is listening to him. Obviously not.
They wouldn’t listen to him because he’s Chinese. China however, did take him very seriously. Simply because he’s a genius. The Chinese leadership often invited him for consultations.
Why do you ask a question and then answer it yourself? Seems a waste of time.
@Part Time Thinker. My understanding he is a 100% American. Lol
@@gstlb Apparently you wasted your time since you don’t differentiate a question from a comment. 😅
@@gstlb what is wrong with you? This is mean spirited comment nr 2 ... without adding any intelligence! Voertsek!
Cities that are large result in a lot of other problems. It is good policy to spread growth around to smaller cities, Many medium sized cities have abolished restrictions on migrant workers and they can apply for residence rights. Historically restrictions on migrant workers were to prevent uneven growth, ensure adequate services for the inhabitants and have been largely successful to curb large cities ills like overcrowding, unemployment, inadequate housing, educational facilities, clean water etc. In addition the growing medium sized cities will be assets rather than liabilities in the long term
Report from Australian ASPI :China is leading the world in technology 37 out of 44 categories that will be the growth for next decades with high value.
Why isn't Yukon running the State Department. Brilliant insights
Yukong theory of Per Capita Income as the economic strength of a country; Yukong did not consider per capita based on PPP; why????
How many times do Western economists have to repeat their mistakes in looking at China through the lens of Western way of running a country? Many of the so called distorted parts of China's economy is a result of priority and snapshots. The country is run by engineers who have clear goals of short and long terms. They know what their policy is producing and can and have been able to change.
I agree with you. China knows what they are doing and are trying hard to balance the economy and their citizen's wellbeing.
@@dryeoh2023 , China underwent political reforms and economic transformation using mixed mkt economy with Chinese characteristics to serve the Chinese people, not US fake democracy. Under Deng Xiaoping, China political and economic policies are pragmatic and always changing for continuous improvements under different successive leaderships. So, compared to 40 yrs ago, the political and economic structures are totally different. Therefore western economists, politicians and US population are ignorant of these changes and transformations bcos they are fed and indoctrinated with obsolete ideologies and beliefs by toxic mainstream media. It is like using typewriter in the 21st century. 😅😅
@@HeresMyView well said, thank you
@@dryeoh2023 nice one... balance economy and citizens well-being
yeah totally agree. yukon huang POV is through the western lens only. 3 main drivers of china's economy is export, local consumption and investments. The demand for export to the west will increase for Europe and US because they need china's cheap products to solve most of their inflation issues, just look at how trade war barely made a dent on the trade volume. local consumption is being stimulated through quantitative easing. and investments into china will only increase as saudis, russians money look for alternative growth areas other than the united states to hedge their bets as they can't put everything in the same basket, guess where will it go?
It doesn't matter if the interior areas are generating 40% lower rate of return on investment, the point of investing in the interior is raising people out of poverty, not generating profit.
Yukon is thinking in terms of generating max profit. But for socialist countries, generating max profit is NOT their goal. They are planning on improving the lives of people first, profit 2nd. Yukon is looking at this from a capitalist's lens.
Also preventing the cities from being overcrowded will prevent slums. We have seen this with New Delhi and elsewhere.
Meanwhile the large cities in Chin have over 20 million people as it, and there is a shortage of housing. Allowing more people to move to the cities will just make the problems worse, Growing new cities will prevent slums, water shortage, waste disposal problems etc... There's alot of other things to consider.
China is run by engineers not capitalists
Mr. Huang is a great economist. but have to point out:
1. migrate kids can study in shanghai until middle school;
2. migrate parents can get shanghai residential id after couple years, not for sure, bc lotspeople are waiting;
3. state companies gave more profits to state in recent years, esp in recent 3 years;
4. it's dangerous fo cities like shanghai to keep growing, e.g what we can see during the lockdown,
5. urbanization has a limit
Yukon is a great economist all he said make great sense except national security. NS is political, not economical. It’s a tool more than anything. It could be very effective, as it did to Japan, or it might not.
Yukon explained issues better than most of our policy makers if they do not have different political agenda.
I don't think Yukon Huang understand why China doesn't focus on growth of GDP for growth's sake. Rather China focus on the quality of growth rather the quantity. If China abolish the Hukou system, it will increase the uncontrolled population in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and drives up demand and price of housing. Instead, China gives more incentives for people to move to Medium and small cities to grow there instead.
Also, China put down many sectors like Financial, Health care insurance, education and gambling because these industries doesn't benefit the people in the long term. It goes the same for many State Owned sectors which is consider as critical and privitizing them will increase price and decrease affordability for the people. Take a look at US' health care industry, it is extremely unaffordable, doesn't benefit its people, but it generates a significant amount of growth in its GDP.
I agree with much of what he said, but in UK, the privatisation of utility companies has been a huge mistake.
Energy kept rising for consumers and big profits for the suppliers. Electric and gas bills go up 4 times this year and the utility companies are getting about 40 billions in profits.
i now see that yukon is a neocon economist
Yukon’s viewpoint very insightful and thought provoking! ❤👍👍👍👍👍🙏👏🔥😍❤️
Brilliant mind and thought-provoking analysis and ideas.
Western theory doesn’t explain China ‘s economy very well.
It is not East or Western theory. You just need to be able to look at the facts logically and will soon figure out what needs to be done. But the US has just been preoccupied with theatrics throwing lots of smoke around to cover up the government’s incompetence. You don’t just pick anyone to fly a plane unless he is a properly trained pilot and you don’t just let anyone operate on your brain unless he is a competent neural surgeon. Yet 87% of US congress now has a criminal record and yet these are the guys deciding on laws and regulations affecting the fate of the country. When a country is run by a freely elected den of thieves, what should you expect the outcome to be?
hes very good at evading the question ...
These people are not in China and know little. They are talking from imagination.
Mr. Huang is amazing as always. Great to see him again and wish him all the best!
Hmm, missed CPC directive for rural dvlpt? Isn't that the future and key to their common prosperity? Dvlpt westward, they will figure it out...
Well the Belt and Road will help with that but will take time for organic growth via trade. I think the problem is more lack of water in the interior, they're building out the renewable energy infrastructure so that's not an issue anymore.
awesome
Very informative but the sound quality is horrible.
Great discussion and guest
Are the microphones of poor quality ?
RS. Canada
Fascinating speaker, so erudite.
China has no problem being a part of a rules based system as long as it gets to have a hand in the creation of the system. The problem comes when the west starts dictating rules for China to follow that they created themselves and can amend at will and which only take into account mostly the interests of western nations while disadvantaging China.
ok so what exactly is China offering? the rules based order has worked great for 70 years! China has been one of the main beneficiary of the system. as far as i can tell China is offering the West nothing more then a totalitarian world where we get to place ourselves under the CCP's boot. well let me save you the suspense "little pink" the West will never accept this and we will cut China off and go to war if we have to.
@@seancurtin5609 : What China do not have to stop or ban on the waste management. Cos that WAS indeed part of their productivities as well ? And they COULD have actually continued... to actually "spend"... and it does NOT have to be actually.... mean that, "you need to build" ? You "can" indeed buy land for the land sake .... or to even actually buy a piece of land, in order to decontaminate it ? And then sell it afterwards, with an increased higher rate, cos it is CLEANER ?? So then it means a kind of index here... that has and it has to be "green" !!!!! And at the same time.. they COULD indeed actually... participate in that too.... and be green.
And China, could indeed grow... and have their own green index, for example... as in... if they have a commodity's exchange... that actually "breaks down waste".. and classify waste into categories, and reverse an item, into its raw materials again.. IF they do that... I mean... that could indeed be a possibility, isn't it ? And also, Chinese people do not like to buy old things either. They often want to buy new things. As in, new items for new year... So, follow on those ethics and those ideas? Is this wrong? This is not wrong...
China is a Bully and everyone knows it. let me tell you NO ONE!! trusts the CCP and ever will again!!! so tell me what is this rules based order the CCP is advocating? ill tell you what it is, everyone can have a pleasure of placing themselves under the boot of the CCP. you can take this CCP rules based order and stick it!!!
Excellent points and insights!
黃老先生是一個難得的俱有世界觀的公道智者！
There is two ways for green growth that is wind, power, and solar. They’ve got the building now they just have to build themselves for their country.
Great now Chinese are tell what is good for Americans policy
An old school economist who is not suited forecasting for the growth of modern China...outdated theorist at best ! a Yukon Potato.
I can't say I'm fully up to speed with economic systems, but that was what I also quietly thought on some of his points.
Ditto! Log this into the obsolete column. But, very well versed for historical economics! 🤪
By "socialists" idea.... if we match and map that, to the British model.... those individuals were...."Lords or gentries".... but SCMP call those individuals as "indigenous" (some kind of weird and oddball media journalistic term, maybe some kind of UN term).... So you don't basically move those individuals. Do you ?? But the thing is.. those individuals that HAVE actual.... education... is also because of actual.... keeping to standard of the Imperial model.. Cos frankly.. at this moment in time.. those individuals are kind of dying out? As in... It is like the British model.. some people are being marginalised and bumped off. So if you bump off the monarchy... then where would you be ???... Cos inside the PRC now.. there are still actual... a loose form of Imperial model. The old dynasties. (MAYBE.... the ratio... or unless... the "Chinese banks"... could be split. Rather than to split the families. Then split the banks.. as in.... Allow the Banks, to have respective family offices.. or units, that only serves THEIR families.. and their businesses etc....)..... By European standard, it is like.. each family, will have their own private bank. Or maybe their own private (family) currencies. Whatever it may be. And that ratio can indeed fluctuate.. but at the same time.. it can be managed ??? So therefore... if family A.. can pay 10 yuans for bread. Then family B might have to pay 5 yuans for bread. BUT.. they cannot buy each other's breads. (That was the... courts.. or what the courts were there to do.. which was to control the markets.. and the branding.. I think it was the Western views, that misunderstood what those courts were for. They were acting as a form of "mediator"....i.e. "You cannot overstep these boundaries, and these sales field locations, cos it belongs to their areas, and not yours. etc etc etc. )
Here's the reality: China has moved from poverty to prosperity in 1 generation while America is declining, as with Japan. Our budget deficit is $31.6 trillion. We're in need of revival--not China. It has so many projects around the world beside the BRI
Well said, thank you
All suppressed, censored or cover up by mainstream media. And, instead anti-China rhetorics fill all the gaps in the mainstream media. The news is designed to brainwash the population, not keep the population informed. Thus when they don't watch the news, they are uninformed but when they do watch the news, they are misinformed. Creating overload of information leads to disinformation, a recipe for anti-China propaganda. So, no surprise that Yukon Huang is biased towards China to a certain extend. He cannot escape this influence.
Yukon is just a Gordon Chang in full yellow face makeup
He also ignore what's happening with the Belt and Road initiative, that's the 5000lb Gorilla in the room, and he just ignores it, in order to justify his own logic 😂
Yukon I think you've got a misunderstanding of how quickly the Chinese population will be aging. Every year 1.5 percent of China's workforce will enter there retirement years. That means China has to grow its output at a minimum of 3 percent annually just to offset it'd aging. Simultaneously China economy of scale which has been one of its competitive advantages us declining which means China has to invest in productivity which will get increasingly more difficult as resources have to be diverted to caring for the elderly. Even if China implements all the reforms you mentioned it will only slow the decline.
At the end of the day you can't escape population participation and productivity. If the population and participation are declining then you have to make it up in productivity and China isn't not implementing the kinds of reforms needed to increase its productivity.
Yukon Huang has some critical thinking that is inspiring.....there might be another area where China can grow. Increasing the arable land area and produce more food in a more sustainable way than at present. There is a lot of damaged land in China and areas with a topography that could be incorporated with adapted technology.
This would be an area where investment can really bring more prosperity to regions that have seen little development. The GDP is mostly a propaganda tool for China...and when it is low quality it is meaningless (It is only the part of the useful GDP GDP that brings a country forward. China has low efficiency and a lot of GDP with no economic value.
Such as unnecessary infrastructure, bloated security investment, bad products, and low housing quality that needs high repair costs. Also overemployment to create jobs for people not able to produce high value, taking care of parks, parking guards, entrance guards and a lot of reporting in the bureaucracy.
Still, there is a lot of environmental destruction which reduces the wealth of society forcing high cost in water supply, waste handling, soil destruction....etc.
China really needs to improve quality and reduce squandering to make China even moderately prosperous.
Lack of knowledge, inefficient administration, too much bureaucracy, and overlapping fields of responsibility, also incompetent or lacking enforcement is of little use to society.
Chinese were going to Russian begin with it didn’t matter what we did that’s what they were doing in the first place and we are allowed them to do it. The only thing we did was push into it a little bit differently.
How do you get China to behave to be better for them selves there people, and the rest of the world
You don't have to bother. It's the People's Republic of China... Their own people knows how to do it, and if you look closely enough, they are doing very very well. 😉
Dear Distinguished Professor Huang: If you observe the "stiff" tariffs only hurt US economy and render no effects on bridging the US-Sino trade deficit and/or shaping up CCP's internal and external affairs and policies, then would you be so kind to enlighten us as to why since the commencement of Trump's trade war with China in 2018, years after years, months after months, Beijing has been urging or even threatening US to immediately drop the stiff tariffs; or else? From these casually empirical observations, the stiff tariffs make sense; i.e., US exerting meaning leveages. Secondly, if Chairman Xi Jinping dares to invade Taiwan, by sheer nationalism or remarkably spiritual wisdom, then will you think US and EU still continue to trade with China in the sense of business as usual because in the past three decades the economical globalization intertwine all nations such that no countries especially US and CN can implausibly be economically separated? Worse, when the unhinged leader sends the hypersonic nuclear missiles to NY and DC, be honest, Professor Huang, you still want US to trade with CN? We all want peace and prosperity, but a beast is always a beast that may not never be tamed nor reasoned like a domicile being. To make a long story short, herein please reference the recent movie, "The Darkest Hour" in which you would see the parallels, in conjunction with 1984 novel. Respectfully submitted.
I think that you are making inferences about China based on American history of foreign domination and invasions. China is a very patient country and is not easily provoked into war despite America's attempt to goad China on with arming Taiwan and encouraging independence.
You make sense when the beast you are referring to is America whose only goal is to maintain its hegemony at the expense of even its allies.
You are projecting the threat by the US onto China. The US doesn't want peace and prosperity if it can't remain the world dictator. It's quite revealing how you refer to China as a beast to be tamed into a domicile being. Unlike all of Europe, China and Russia are not dogs to be tamed by America.
You are overheating and consume too much American media, submitted respectfully. That is the Beast.
@@HKChineseCanadian Thank you
but the point of going into trade war with China is that China doesn't care to follow the so called rules... so how do you get Chian to follow/respect those rules? This entire talk is to just point out what is happening without offering some kind of possible solution... what is the point.
So called rules!
Hegemony Coming to an End.
ruclips.net/video/LfVQznzdkYs/видео.html
2023.04.06 (13:00) (Class is Fundamental)
☝️😉 Excellent (13min) summary of America's last 100-years history.
ruclips.net/video/LfVQznzdkYs/видео.html
The only way to deal with CCP is to undermine it or be undermined by it. In order to have complete decoupling with CCP regime, the rest of the world must restructure the supply chain with the assistance of both Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese entrepreneurs. The complete decoupling is the only way forward. There's no room for further appeasement of CCP. My political view has nothing to do with my Chinese ethnicity. 脱钩是唯一的对策。
The Gentleman’s logic would have resulted in the World speaking German! Think of the industrialist in the 1939’ who still wanted to do business with Hitler! It’s down to $ or Morals’! The word economist don’t use is Genocide!
Kiss88
Hegemony Coming to an End.
ruclips.net/video/LfVQznzdkYs/видео.html
2023.04.06 (13:00) (Class is Fundamental)
☝️ Excellent (13min) summary of America's last 100years history.
ruclips.net/video/-ip4LKz9d6U/видео.html