I think so too. Clutch hitting in the regular season is fine but the pistseason has a lot of elite pitchers players have to bat. Ortiz elevated his game against top tier pitching in the highest leverage games. No shade on those other players because they are good but Ortiz WAS a power hitter who carried the sox at times.
@@Brahmabullz Yeah, 2013. That team should not have won a world series though. We were a solid, postseason caliber team for sure, but the lineup had a fair few weak hitters, starting pitching was good but not great, and while the pen was really strong, outside of one starter and the first four hitters the team lacked depth everywhere else. We played against the Tigers in the ALCS when they had Verlander AND Scherzer AND Miguel Cabrera. Absolutely bonkers team, should have smoked us. We won and Ortiz didn't actually hit all that great; that's the crazy part. It was the world series where he hit .688/.760/1.188
It wasn't only 2004 either. He was just as lethal in 2003. Had the Sox just stayed with Embree to setup and Timlin to close out instead of bringing back Pedro.in the 8th inning the Sox probably win the 2003 ALCS also.
The only flaw I see with this study is not assigning a value to high leverage games. A game in the 1st week of the season shouldn't have the same high leverage value as a game in the playoffs.
I think the criticisms of doing a playoff-based metric are fair, but I wonder if we can somehow calculate how important a game is toward getting to the playoffs/advancing in the playoffs and weigh that as well. Contributing to a high leverage win is great, but it is certainly more clutch when fighting for end-of-season wins and inter-division games than when a team that has locked up a playoff spot has an unexpected late-game loss because they're resting players. That said, fantastic video and thanks for the insights.
Jose Lind (pronounced Leaned, not like Adam Lind) was a wizard with the glove but may as well not have had a bat. Loved watching that guy in the field though.
Don't know what the stats say, but for my money, and only counting guys I was able to see play, (and im a Yankee fan, so i definitely have bias after watching them win so much in the late 90s to 2001) I would say it is one of: David Ortiz Derek Jeter Bernie Williams Those are the three guys I think of when I think of clutch postseason hitting. Giancarlo Stanton has been rapidly climbing the list, Hideki Matsui was so money in big spots. Jose Altuve, though I can't stand him, is very clutch as well. Going back a bit farther, Kirby Puckett, Joe Carter, Paul Molitor George Brett were fantastic.
Great video, as usual. I’m curious as to whether managers use leverage metrics in real time for decisions or do they use their intuition. Probably a mix of both
@@floridaman6281 I seriously doubt it. Those metrics are extremely variable from year to year and day to day so it wouldn’t make sense for them to use them to influence their decisions.
They do not. Past high leverage performance has nothing to do with future high leverage performance. You also can't trade for a "clutch" player and expect them to perform in the clutch in the future, because it's not a real characteristic of a player and only exists because of statistical variation.
Your vids are awesome! I really don’t like how the clutch calculation is a comparison of how much you elevate relative to your baseline. I like the straight up WRC+ in high leverage more
I would like see a clutch-like metric calculated from championship win probability added. While this punishes clutch players on bad/non-playoff teams I think it more closely matches the general public's definition of clutch.
I understand that because of small samples results are skewed but based off your criteria I'd be interested to see the clutchest seasons of all time and clutchest postseason hitters of all time. Ofc the latter would definitely punish good hitters on bad teams, but it'd still be fun to see!
At 5:44 ... no, the surprise for me is No. 9 as the perception of Arozarena is that he's middling most of the time, but somehow often does the exceptional in the "clutch" moments. Bryce, has a couple of big hits in big moments. So maybe there also needs to be something that weights the importance of the game. For example, a Game 7 tying hit in the 9th is far more important than a Game 1 walk-off.
I remember Mark Grace put together some of the best ABs late in games almost everyday when I was watching the Cubs…but this video has a point about Tony Gwynn. His teams never made it into the spotlight much but he was an absolute bitch to get out ALL OF THE TIME. His mindset never wavered. In the end, it’s gotta be David Ortiz though, right? There were points in that early/mid 2000s time period where I just couldn’t believe it.
Good video, but who would you want on the bottom of the 9th, guy with 1.000OPS regularly, and .900 on clutch situations or, .750 average hitter with .850? Would you choose the latter because he has higher clutch?
Teams have attempted to trade for clutch players before but it hasn't worked; the fact of the matter is that there's no such thing as being "clutch" or "good in the playoffs". You can watch every player's "clutch factor" regress to the mean over time, because you can't magically get better at doing something simply because there's more on the line. If you could flip a switch and become a better player you'd do it in all situations and simply be a better player overall rather than saving it for "when it counts". Players who were exceptionally clutch in the past don't perform in the clutch in the future, they perform roughly at their overall average level.
But you bring up a good point; even if clutch existed and you could actually predict future high-leverage performance using past high-leverage performance, you'd still just order people based on their raw numbers in high-leverage, not the difference between their baseline and high-leverage stats.
I guess if it's plate appearances since 1970 it'd have to be Henderson, Pujols, Ripken, Murray those outer 4. Then Bonds and Jeter with Bonds pretty darn low and Jeter on the line. Pretty interesting.
Post season win probability added is where you see the usual names, like David Ortiz, David Freese, Lance Berkam... I don't think it's important to how good a player's performance is in high vs low leverage, just the overall win probability added.
I think weighing postseason ABs more heavily is a better way to compare, those ABs are a big step up, more pressurized, than a midseason AB that means much less in reality.
I mean, they're right and wrong. It matters, but sometimes it doesn't matter so much it actually hurts. An example of this is Reggie Jackson. High strikeout rate, but in a huge spot, that's who you wanted at the plate. When strikeouts really matter is with hitters that don't hit for average. It is possible to lead the league in strikeout rate and also be as clutch a hitter as the game ever saw. I give you... Babe Ruth. He was the all time leader in striking out and strikeout rate for decades after he retired, but he also had a career average of like .341
It honestly depends who the opponents pitcher is and what side they throw from, if its a righty with a man in scoring position i want either a left contact hitter like freddy freeman, j-ram, big papi, kirk, tony gwyn, and if its a lefty with a man in scoring position then id want ichiro, vlad sr, pujols, miggy.
There are players that have/had good success in the clutch, but what's also true is that you cannot look at a player's past success in the clutch and gain any information about whether they will continue to be great in those scenarios. In other words, you can't trade for a player simply because they are "clutch" or a "playoff monster", and when teams try to do this it never works. Ultimately clutch/high-leverage performance is a case of small sample size; all evidence we have ever seen points to the fact that clutch isn't a real characteristic of a player and only makes sense as a retroactive stat.
11:04 sorry to be that guy, but it’s Jose “LEANED”. He was a clutch hitter in the postseason, but sadly made probably the biggest error in Pirates history in the 92 NLCS, bottom of the 9th
C'mon man...Eddie Murray. Pennant race? His average was 28 points and OPS 70 points higher in Sept/Oct versus career averages. Bases loaded? Murray hit .399 with 19 HR, 299 RBI, 1.127 OPS in his career. Late and close or clutch stats...OPS relative to career in all is several points higher in career. That is with him getting nothing but junk to hit. He could still reach out of the zone and lift a sac fly (all time leader). Ask Sparky Anderson or Billy Martin back then about dealing with Murray. Had 504 HR despite losing 2/3 of a season to work stoppages and playing home games in Memorial, Dodger, and Shea Stadiums. Basically when it was a clutch situation, Murray became Frank Robinson or Willie Mays. When they were down 8 and no one was on, he was merely all star caliber. A true legend yet still somehow underrated. Also...going strictly by this numeric definition I can't take this too seriously if you don't talk about Pat Tabler.
@@saemonno-suke9959 his formula is sound. I don't disagree with his math, just the approach. But that's baseball there's about 100 different ways to define it. Mine approach is in the response. Some people will define it as making a flashy but unnecessary defensive play to make an assist where the runner would have been out anyway...but safe if he slid.
You lost me when you said one of the most clutch hitters of all time isn't clutch. Giancarlo Stanton has 135 wRC+ in the regular season and a 160 wRC+ in the postseason. Who cares about "clutch" moments in the regular season?
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
Clutch hitters are harder to find now that most cars are automatics.
You don’t hit a clutch so your joke is busted.
Your face will be busted if you don’t stop yapping.
And bunting is the equivalent of parallel parking, not even bothered to be taught anymore
@@aVerveQuestcuz most time if u are a good hitter u don’t need it
😂😂😂
Ortiz in 04 was wild. It didn't make sense how often he came thru with a game changing hit
There was a postseason run somewhere where he hit like .700
I think so too. Clutch hitting in the regular season is fine but the pistseason has a lot of elite pitchers players have to bat. Ortiz elevated his game against top tier pitching in the highest leverage games. No shade on those other players because they are good but Ortiz WAS a power hitter who carried the sox at times.
Yeah clutch hitting and PEDs are a great combo and add to that Manny hitting behind you so you couldn't walk him were deadly
@@Brahmabullz Yeah, 2013. That team should not have won a world series though. We were a solid, postseason caliber team for sure, but the lineup had a fair few weak hitters, starting pitching was good but not great, and while the pen was really strong, outside of one starter and the first four hitters the team lacked depth everywhere else. We played against the Tigers in the ALCS when they had Verlander AND Scherzer AND Miguel Cabrera. Absolutely bonkers team, should have smoked us. We won and Ortiz didn't actually hit all that great; that's the crazy part. It was the world series where he hit .688/.760/1.188
It wasn't only 2004 either. He was just as lethal in 2003. Had the Sox just stayed with Embree to setup and Timlin to close out instead of bringing back Pedro.in the 8th inning the Sox probably win the 2003 ALCS also.
Clutch for me is stepping up in the "all is lost" moment and balling out. David Ortiz was that guy.
The only flaw I see with this study is not assigning a value to high leverage games. A game in the 1st week of the season shouldn't have the same high leverage value as a game in the playoffs.
@@Bsk8erzero That’s what Championship win probability added is for!
The Papi era made being a Red Sox fan so god damn fun. The amount of times he changed the outcome of games is crazy.
This needs a post-season version. Clutch when it really counts
I think the criticisms of doing a playoff-based metric are fair, but I wonder if we can somehow calculate how important a game is toward getting to the playoffs/advancing in the playoffs and weigh that as well. Contributing to a high leverage win is great, but it is certainly more clutch when fighting for end-of-season wins and inter-division games than when a team that has locked up a playoff spot has an unexpected late-game loss because they're resting players.
That said, fantastic video and thanks for the insights.
I watched a lot of Orioles games this year and cower seemed very clutch especially for a rookie. I'm kind of stunned to see him that low
You definitely did not watch any Orioles games if you thought that Colton Cowser was clutch.
Jose Lind (pronounced Leaned, not like Adam Lind) was a wizard with the glove but may as well not have had a bat. Loved watching that guy in the field though.
I know he hadn't enough AB but Allen Craig is for me, the King of Clutch. (3 go-ahead hits in 2011WS, 400 and 454 RISP in 2012 and 2013)
I was honestly surprised Lance Berkman didn't come up at all in this.
Don't know what the stats say, but for my money, and only counting guys I was able to see play, (and im a Yankee fan, so i definitely have bias after watching them win so much in the late 90s to 2001) I would say it is one of:
David Ortiz
Derek Jeter
Bernie Williams
Those are the three guys I think of when I think of clutch postseason hitting.
Giancarlo Stanton has been rapidly climbing the list, Hideki Matsui was so money in big spots. Jose Altuve, though I can't stand him, is very clutch as well.
Going back a bit farther, Kirby Puckett, Joe Carter, Paul Molitor George Brett were fantastic.
Great video, as usual. I’m curious as to whether managers use leverage metrics in real time for decisions or do they use their intuition. Probably a mix of both
@@floridaman6281 I seriously doubt it. Those metrics are extremely variable from year to year and day to day so it wouldn’t make sense for them to use them to influence their decisions.
They do not. Past high leverage performance has nothing to do with future high leverage performance. You also can't trade for a "clutch" player and expect them to perform in the clutch in the future, because it's not a real characteristic of a player and only exists because of statistical variation.
“Judge is the least clutch”
“Strikeouts are killers in high leverage situations”.
And there it is.
Your vids are awesome! I really don’t like how the clutch calculation is a comparison of how much you elevate relative to your baseline. I like the straight up WRC+ in high leverage more
I would like see a clutch-like metric calculated from championship win probability added. While this punishes clutch players on bad/non-playoff teams I think it more closely matches the general public's definition of clutch.
I understand that because of small samples results are skewed but based off your criteria I'd be interested to see the clutchest seasons of all time and clutchest postseason hitters of all time. Ofc the latter would definitely punish good hitters on bad teams, but it'd still be fun to see!
At 5:44 ... no, the surprise for me is No. 9 as the perception of Arozarena is that he's middling most of the time, but somehow often does the exceptional in the "clutch" moments. Bryce, has a couple of big hits in big moments. So maybe there also needs to be something that weights the importance of the game. For example, a Game 7 tying hit in the 9th is far more important than a Game 1 walk-off.
I remember Mark Grace put together some of the best ABs late in games almost everyday when I was watching the Cubs…but this video has a point about Tony Gwynn. His teams never made it into the spotlight much but he was an absolute bitch to get out ALL OF THE TIME. His mindset never wavered.
In the end, it’s gotta be David Ortiz though, right? There were points in that early/mid 2000s time period where I just couldn’t believe it.
very well done video!
The Clutchest hitter of all time is Jackson Peter Merrill
*crickets*
*crickets*
Silence is a source of great strength.
Jose Lind was amazing at defense. Shortstop. WIDE range. Super clutch, including in playoffs.
Good video, but who would you want on the bottom of the 9th, guy with 1.000OPS regularly, and .900 on clutch situations or, .750 average hitter with .850?
Would you choose the latter because he has higher clutch?
Teams have attempted to trade for clutch players before but it hasn't worked; the fact of the matter is that there's no such thing as being "clutch" or "good in the playoffs". You can watch every player's "clutch factor" regress to the mean over time, because you can't magically get better at doing something simply because there's more on the line. If you could flip a switch and become a better player you'd do it in all situations and simply be a better player overall rather than saving it for "when it counts". Players who were exceptionally clutch in the past don't perform in the clutch in the future, they perform roughly at their overall average level.
But you bring up a good point; even if clutch existed and you could actually predict future high-leverage performance using past high-leverage performance, you'd still just order people based on their raw numbers in high-leverage, not the difference between their baseline and high-leverage stats.
You got to tell us who more of those dots are! I'm guessing Pete Rose and Rickey Henderson must be those two way out there but a bit above the line?
I guess if it's plate appearances since 1970 it'd have to be Henderson, Pujols, Ripken, Murray those outer 4. Then Bonds and Jeter with Bonds pretty darn low and Jeter on the line. Pretty interesting.
Post season win probability added is where you see the usual names, like David Ortiz, David Freese, Lance Berkam... I don't think it's important to how good a player's performance is in high vs low leverage, just the overall win probability added.
I go by what my eyes see and nobody I’ve seen has been better than David Ortiz
After fighting off the alligator, Brian still had to face the anaconda.
I think weighing postseason ABs more heavily is a better way to compare, those ABs are a big step up, more pressurized, than a midseason AB that means much less in reality.
Bravo! Good video
How about a video analyzing the collapse of the 2024 Phillies?
But yet coaches tell guys strikeouts don't matter. It's simple, if you put the ball in play, you'll perform in the clutch
I mean, they're right and wrong. It matters, but sometimes it doesn't matter so much it actually hurts. An example of this is Reggie Jackson. High strikeout rate, but in a huge spot, that's who you wanted at the plate.
When strikeouts really matter is with hitters that don't hit for average. It is possible to lead the league in strikeout rate and also be as clutch a hitter as the game ever saw. I give you... Babe Ruth. He was the all time leader in striking out and strikeout rate for decades after he retired, but he also had a career average of like .341
Haven’t even finished the video but this is the only stat that matters
It honestly depends who the opponents pitcher is and what side they throw from, if its a righty with a man in scoring position i want either a left contact hitter like freddy freeman, j-ram, big papi, kirk, tony gwyn, and if its a lefty with a man in scoring position then id want ichiro, vlad sr, pujols, miggy.
Do clutch pitchers next.
In my anecdotal experience the best clutch hitters are:
Roberto Alomar
Don Mattingly
George Brett
There are players that have/had good success in the clutch, but what's also true is that you cannot look at a player's past success in the clutch and gain any information about whether they will continue to be great in those scenarios. In other words, you can't trade for a player simply because they are "clutch" or a "playoff monster", and when teams try to do this it never works. Ultimately clutch/high-leverage performance is a case of small sample size; all evidence we have ever seen points to the fact that clutch isn't a real characteristic of a player and only makes sense as a retroactive stat.
11:04 sorry to be that guy, but it’s Jose “LEANED”. He was a clutch hitter in the postseason, but sadly made probably the biggest error in Pirates history in the 92 NLCS, bottom of the 9th
Colby Rasmus absolutely snubbed
Judge being the least clutch sent me. GO YANKEES!!!
@@justadude2800 no, I meant I laughed when he said that.
Judge has to get it together
It’s even funnier that he came up on two different worst lists in this one video
How did it “send you?” I’m a Yankee fan and this has been Judge’s MO forever
@@billmcnealofwnyxnewyork brother it genuinely made me laugh, I found it funny, I chuckled.
I wonder where does garrett anderson fall on the graph. Dude was consistent and had a batting average over 300 for half of his career.
Parker meadows might be on this list soon this year alone he had a handful of walkoffs
You should naturally progress this which team is the most clutch
Aroldis Chapman knows.
If you watch the game you can see who's clutch.. seems the stat is legit.. Tony Gwynn was always clutch
Correct answer is Maicer Izturis
Before having watched: Pat Tabler?
My guess would be Tony Qwynn
How do you do baseball vids and not know who Chico Lind is?
Man, I wish Not Who You Think was on my team
What do you mean Dee Gordon wasn't know for his hitting early in his career?? He won a fucking batting title
You are all wrong… It’s Pat Tabler.
Thank you! I sat through this whole video waiting for Tabler's name to be mentioned, and crickets.
No sub.
Madison Baumgartner. He's the one. Mariano too.
Reggie F Jackson
The greatest clutter of all time is George Brett.
It's Teoscar Hernandez lol
Jim Leyritz
I'll take prime Eddie Murray,maybe Reggie
It’s Freese bruh. And i’m a dodger fan
Pat Tabler.
David Ortiz is the most clutch man in sports not named Tom Brady.
its papi no doubt no matter what u say
Why are you in my backyard?
I dont care what the math says Rooker and the As had 0 high leverage at bats. Same with reynolds and half the guys on this list
Giancarlo Stanton
Dam
I’m early
C'mon man...Eddie Murray.
Pennant race? His average was 28 points and OPS 70 points higher in Sept/Oct versus career averages.
Bases loaded? Murray hit .399 with 19 HR, 299 RBI, 1.127 OPS in his career.
Late and close or clutch stats...OPS relative to career in all is several points higher in career.
That is with him getting nothing but junk to hit. He could still reach out of the zone and lift a sac fly (all time leader).
Ask Sparky Anderson or Billy Martin back then about dealing with Murray.
Had 504 HR despite losing 2/3 of a season to work stoppages and playing home games in Memorial, Dodger, and Shea Stadiums.
Basically when it was a clutch situation, Murray became Frank Robinson or Willie Mays. When they were down 8 and no one was on, he was merely all star caliber. A true legend yet still somehow underrated.
Also...going strictly by this numeric definition I can't take this too seriously if you don't talk about Pat Tabler.
he literally posted the formula... why dont you insert your results?
@@saemonno-suke9959 his formula is sound. I don't disagree with his math, just the approach. But that's baseball there's about 100 different ways to define it. Mine approach is in the response.
Some people will define it as making a flashy but unnecessary defensive play to make an assist where the runner would have been out anyway...but safe if he slid.
Your sentences are like jab jab jab jab jab; you gotta do more dodge, wait, jab. Own your .’s
David Ortiz hands down
I don’t like that the clutch stat punishes players who perform well in non-clutch situations
This guy is Ron Cey.
You lost me when you said one of the most clutch hitters of all time isn't clutch. Giancarlo Stanton has 135 wRC+ in the regular season and a 160 wRC+ in the postseason. Who cares about "clutch" moments in the regular season?
fellas are they really clutch? or did the other team just choke?
Clutch if they always come through against different teams and pitches
Clutch i a vibe not a stat
no. this is exactly what sabermetrics is missing.
i want my goat david bote if yk yk
Pat Tabler.