Tesla Is Robotaxi Ready w/ Gali From HyperChange
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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This was so fun! thanks for havin me bro!! :)
Always a pleasure brother!
1. Buy your tesla online
2. It drives itself to your place
3. You have 7 days to return it
4. If you don't want it, it returns to a hangar, wher robots clean it to make it ready for the next customer
*No tesla available for sale, no need for retail customers
Owning a car is wasteful, normally a car is parked and unused for 95% of the time. Some people might need to own a car but I think tesla should be focused on robotaxis, transportaion as a service. If you sell a car to a customer you are giving away most of your profit be cause the car is worth much more as a robotaxi.
@@martinguila there's also a hybrid business model: it's your car (you take care of the maintenance and "re-fueling"), but when you're not using it, it's. robotaxi. Taxi revenu is shared between the owner and Tesla. This offloads the maintenance costs and handling to the owner. Good for Tesla. I believe that's been in Elon's plan.
@@gyangting Yes I think that model could work.
But at Tesla Autonomy Investor Day there was slide showing that tesla estimates a gross profit of 30'000 usd per robotaxi for 11 years. So if tesla can make that profit of 330 000 in total per car. If you want to buy that car how much money do you think they will demand from you?
So I think private ownership is going to be expensive so my thinking is you have to send it out for robotaxi jobs alot to justify the cost.
On the other hand people who already have a tesla or is buying on now could do this. But I think tesla is going to be production constrained again. And when you want to buy a new car there will be lots of fleet providers willing to pay high amounts of money that you are indirectly bidding against. And tesla who can choose to own the cars themselves.
@@martinguila for people living in urban areas, robotaxis make total sens. But as soon as you live in suburbs or in rural areas, you surely don't want to wait 10 to 20 minutes for a car to arrive from the closest robotaxis parking lot, if there's any close by! In that situation, the ownership+robotaxis make more sens: you can jump in your car in 20 seconds, and while you work in the city, it drives city people...
Did everyone see Farzad check his mirror thinking “damn! FSD almost nailed that tweeker on live stream”
More shocking is that the car did exactly what I would've done in this situation.
Which minute?
@@janfm8670 The minute FSD almost nailed that tweeker on live stream.
@@janfm8670 1:32
@@janfm86701:44
Making a video with the OG? Farzad, you've officially made it bro.
Gali is the OG OG.
Fartzad is the definition of cope
Boi hell nah did you really just call him fartzad?? Lmao who hurt you bro?@Factoryseconds123
@@ferdinand002 people are just nasty online, so are the bots
OG²
that guy at the begining was tweaking lol
nah just super excited about Robo-Taxi !!! 😂
I don’t know if fsd has good tweaker data. That’s a whole other level of prediction
Thought he was going to be so inconsiderate as to dent front of Farzad's rig.
FSD said get F out of my way.
i lost all focus on what was said, like don't they see that. Also why didnt FSD brake when he went back out on the road.
1:30 guy looked really exicted about seeing FSD in action
I'd suggest that if you think the car is going to do something wrong, make sure you disengage and it gets sent to Tesla. Because if you don't, they will never know "what's wrong"
I wish I could like this 100x
We’re not Robotaxi ready get but getting close
-The OG Tesla RoboTaxi
Since the comfort variable is rather personal it may be solved by implementing a choice of FSD personal modes, e.g. Comfort, Sport, Cruise, Learn, etc.
Difference between FSD operating the car and navigation getting you to your destination. Navigation is like any navigation tool available today. Compare other GPS to the navigation feature.
However poor navigation is not a count against safety and operation that gets you to the destination, even if it could have taken a better route.
1:50 - did you expect the dude that was on something to just jump out? I noticed you checked the rear view lol
12:00 I've asked for chiller mode for FSD because of this fact. I like the commit from 0 to whatever speed, but that takeoff is still uncomfortable sometimes. It's weird because the takeoff will be quick like that but then the car will drive under the speed limit when it gets up to speed.
@1:30 lol holy shit that was a great 20 seconds of entertainment there
1m 47s the dude looked like he was going to jump in front of the Tesla
Re: 11:28
If you disengage from FSD the car asks what happened.
If the car does something wrong, simply disengage from FSD and click the right scroll wheel to send a recording to the development team.
I'm a little surprised that the three of you (or four of you, including your wife) weren't aware of that.
Great video though. Thanks for all the info!
Me too
What if the thing your Tesla does wrong is go head on into a minivan full of kids coming home from soccer practice? How do you send the feedback info?
@@ABosch-lg2pr I was going to say; ask the soccer mum to do it... But in reality, Teslas are very crash safe - so you'd probably be able to do it yourself... You know, after the airbags go down.
@@ABosch-lg2pr Goes automatically.
@@ABosch-lg2pr While accidents certainly can happen, that kind of accident statistically happens much less with FSD than with human drivers who are often distracted or road-raged.
Your trips to Franklin’s drive me crazy. I’m a BBQ and Tesla nerd and have been following Franklin and his videos for years. I cook everything outdoors and have huge BBQ’s all summer. Unfortunately, I live in the northeast and have never made it to Austin. However, my wife and I are planning a cross-country trip once my Cybertruck reservation works it’s way to the top of the queue. Our trail will include Austin and Boca Chica are going to be a big part of the plan. Love your videos and have followed you since your first days. Great content! 😃😃😃
we got the model 3 in 2019. my wife commutes in it. I wanted to finally replace our gas small suv. She has heard all the negative of Elon and doesn't like him. So she asked does it have to be a Tesla? So I pretty confidently said ok, lets go test drive the Hyundai Ioniq 5 & 6.
First thing she noted was all the buttons and controls. then that it didn't have quite the kick in horsepower. The cars drove fine. Reminded me of the Hyundai's we've owned. They weren't bad they just weren't as good as Tesla. So we got the Model Y.
The other bad experience was just being at a dealership. Want that feature? It's 10k more. (i asked about left/right turn cameras) It's just the same old experience of feeling like I'm going to get screwed at the dealer for minor additions to the car.
On the speed that fsd drives: two of my friends with fsd on the new build - one of them has it on most aggressive and finds it slow, the other has it on medium and finds it reckless. Both of these guys, I'd be clutching the door handles as a passenger with their normal driving... So YMMV.
1:38 what a lovely day to happen across a crazy person
probably just really stoked about Robo-Taxi also!!
FSD was pretty assertive passing that dude, I was surprised how fast it went by him as he was still in the intersection was close enough to jump in front of the car.
@@faz09 Same I was surprised that Farzad was so aggressive zipping past him and then became more surprised when he said that was FSD
@@Nil-js4bf Had the same initial thought but probably the situation felt different while behind the wheel.
@@Nil-js4bf it did exactly what I would've done, which was surprising.
Well done I like your analogy of self driving and it doesn’t matter how it gets you there long as it gets you there safely
12.3.3 took me from MN to MO to watch the eclipse. Safer and better than 95% of other drivers BUT two interventions when it went from left lane to a left turn lane which I didn't want to take. Also, the speed was not always where I wanted.
No, it definitely is NOT robotaxi ready. I'm blown away by the new FSD versions too - I've got a Model 3 and have been testing FSD out. But it's not perfect yet. It drove 95% of the time without interventions, but there were a few times I had to jump in. One was a simple merge onto a highway. It was taking me toward the highway and it simply didn't merge. It slowed down and you could tell it was thinking, but then it kept on going straight - and there was a field in front of me so I had to take the wheel and merge manually. It seemed to me like this was not a difficult issue, but obviously Tesla still has to refine areas - even somewhat simple ones.
I live in the Villages where there are a lot of traffic circles. When entering a circle from a side street my Model 3 tends to drift out of its lane. Also, it doesn’t seem to recognize the security gates. Not ready for prime time.
I think next step is not requiring hands on the wheel, but head tracking is still enabled. Then that you do not need to pay attention, but need to be able to take over if the car requests it.
No. Having at least one hand on the wheel at all times should never be discontinued.
Otherwise women will be putting on mascara on the way to work.
Tesla being engineering focused is the correct approach. Mind you, I only own the stock and haven't purchased or dealt with their customer service and support. But I believe they are focused on automating everything. Eventually they will have an Optimus bot kissing customers butts when they come into the store. If a customer isn't happy, the AI will learn and rewrite it's code to be more/less apathetic. But there comes a point where no matter how perfect your CS is, the customer will never be happy.
I've been using it work over a week now and I've had dozens of disengagements, and it nailed a pot hole that bent my rim. Additionally, it absolutely cannot handle toll booths, so I'm not sure we're there just yet. It is much better low speed cruising around town, though.
I saw a video where the car was doing 34 mph, the screen said max 25, which was the speed limit. So is there a setting that allows the car to speed?
Great ideas and product brainstorming. Thanks.
Wow it’s just like supervising a learner driver, that’s awesome
Whilst I am impressed with the big improvement with FSD 12.... It certainly is not ready for Robo-Taxi now....
Hopefully, in some locations in America... later this year.
I can see it work in a geo-fenced area but open world, no chance. mine cannot even avoid cross double yellow lines at times which is beyond ridiculous and recently while on the interstate it was using minimum speed signs as the set limit but overriding with a message about keeping with traffic. it certainly has improved over previous versions but I would not dare let it drive unsupervised. If farad and friends are so convinced I suggest blindfolds. - put them under the sunglasses and fsd won't know
The biggest problem is there is no backup sensors to the cameras. Without those I don't see any municipality approving FSD. Not to mention how much the labor unions are fighting FSD
@@bobbob-gx1iq Eventually the labour unions will loose power as robots replace people in the workplace. FSD will prove itself like seat belts did.... The rest as they say "will be history". Probably the insurance companies will act first.... You want to drive.... $10,000 per year. You have FSD $500 per year!
I would love for Tesla vehicles to be fully Robotaxi today but the truth is that, even tho 12.3.4 is great, it is still failing in a number of drives and manual takeovers are required. I haven’t driven in 12 years due to a stroke that affected my vision. I’d love for Tesla to pull a rabbit out of their hat come 8/8 but I’m not getting my hopes up.
It's not good enough to just look at where it's at today, you have to look at the trends. FSD's improvement has increased rapidly lately. That's what's encouraging.
@@truhartwood3170 Agreed.
Considering I've ran into issues with simple left and right turns on 12.3.3 not there quite yet when it works its fantastic but I am still having at least one intervention a drive that is way to high for something with no driver
There are others having issues.... it's not ready.
@@jkimo1178
Nobody said it's ready. But it's much much closer to ready than it was just a few months ago.
This is a time of heightened uncertainty. I don't even know how analysts are modelling price targets. How do you even discount future cash flows when there such a broad range of possible future cash flows?
That was extremely on point regarding the service DNA. Same feeling with Tesla customer support and service here i Sweden.
FSD V12 is way more patient than V11. It used to get impatient and try to pass cars stopped at intersection in construction in Las Vegas. V12 is so chill in those situations and generally makes decisions at about 75% to 85% my speed for interactive decisions which feels a little slow but super safe.
How weird is it to have a voice you are familiar with on a phone or computer to suddenly be live in your car? So cool and huge RESPECT for both ya'll. Peace!
What about the edge case concrete pillars in rain city?
I secret shopped at tesla and rivian in NYC, and had the exact opposite experience. Tesla greets you at the door, and rivian waited for me to go in the car and paid no attention. Rivian is very chill and very out door vibe. Rivian hasn’t had the volume yet of deliveries to deal with the same level of issues at the service center as tesla.
If Gali and Farzad were to have a baby, it would be Pejji :)
What a treat for Friday!
That guy on 1,28 was hilarious 😅😅
Great to have Gali's comments, such a switched on thinker. Farzad, shouldn't you intervene when FSD isn't correct, otherwise how will it learn?
I'm bullish on FSD and I have purchased it outright for my 2024 Model 3, taking delivery in less than 2 weeks, but it is NOT robotaxi ready at this point in time. Maybe in a year or two, maybe a little longer but I've got full confidence there will be thousands of Tesla robotaxis all over North America this decade. A lot of people I know don't think it'll ever happen at all, or that it'll take decades if it does.
You’re overlooking the fact that Rivian is not as big. They don’t sell as many cars. Tesla was like that in the beginning and Customer Service was much better, but now that there are mass producing, they don’t have time for that if Rivian survives you will see Rivian do exactly the same thing.
Great video, toward the end when you were talking about trusting the system, would have been interesting to discuss how Grok would provide that experience at the next level.
Your guests in the front seat... his feedback is so solid
G Russell is the man!
@@mbur5099 is he on RUclips by chance?
@@youtubewatcherrr yes his channel is Hyperchange. He was the original OG for Tesla retail back in 2018
I've experienced the same navigation error you did at 10:59. Version 11.4.9 always allowed me to make lane corrections on my commute, which I know well, but now 12.3.3 ignores my lane change requests on the northbound I-5 express lanes in Seattle. It goes where it wants to go! Knowing I must make the far left exit lane is frustrating when 12 keeps going straight after ignoring my turn signal request. Version 12 is smoother and safer, but I hope the next update restores the lane change control I had under earlier versions.
A huge solar thing to power Dojo in Texas
Austin is used a lot for testing and the weather is good. Do a drive in nyc or some other challenging metro. Maybe FSD 12 is good for sunshine states. Maybe FSD 13 is for the NE metros.
That's a big ask to just go drive in another city. Perhaps watch another youtuber that lives in other climates?
There are absolutely the kinds of videos you're talking about - downtown Manhattan, or snow covering up lane lines and curbs, or gravel roads, or rain, crazy university campuses with tons of bikes and pedestrians everywhere, sunrise/sunset, etc etc. There are dozens of RUclipsrs uploading their FSD videos from all over the US and Canada.
white arrow optional, yellow compulsory?
Loved comments "new M3...sharp!" Had ours 2 weeks, we love it! 🇨🇦
From testing v12
I feel it’s robo taxi ready as well
Some mistakes yes but it’s already better than 99 percent of drivers
Aiden? Talking about FSD bing slower, but I understand you can select Chill, Average or Assertive. Doesn't Chill slow it down?
My neighbor's son works for TSLA, has a Cybertruck & has FSD. He said it correctly took him to his dog's vet down small roads in Austin.
When you have the 'Summon' feature, isn't THAT 'FSD' while it is driving itself to where you are?
Love the car seat bro.
Im a customer Success Manager. I pride myself on making the customer happy in a IT world. I would "give my right arm" to help fix Tesla's Customer front.
I just got 12.3.4 this morning. Haven’t had a chance to test it. 12.3.3 was already so unbelievably good… and boom here comes the next drop. This thing is accelerating in it’s approach to lvl 5. Out of BETA within a year, driverless taxis within two years.
24:00 I'm curious what Gali thinks of the prospects of Tesla doing a retail footprint expansion by partnering with a big box chain. I have thought for years that Costco is almost a perfect partner for Tesla on the retail side, because the psychology of a costco shopper aligns almost perfectly with the value proposition presented by an electric car. Under this concept, Tesla would put a table display with 3-4 CSRs at a costco to answer questions, generate leads, schedule test drives etc
Combine both ideas and have other brands customize the robotaxi template. Think luxury pods built for the ultra-wealthy, a shuttle version for airports, tourist versions for experience operators, etc
No way it’s ready. U know how much liability there is if it just messes up a little bit and hurts someone?
But people hurt people all the time so you can build that cost into the model by insurance?
@@josephray6454 well if it kills someone like cruise did the whole robotaxi idea could get pushed back by years. I’m not saying it won’t get to a point where it’s good enough but farzads title implying it’s ready now is dead wrong. Also yes people hurt other people all the time but the kinds of mistakes fsd makes sometimes are due to stupid decisions even the worst drivers don’t make. Like slamming on the brakes on the freeway which still happened to me on v12 and making bad lane decisions and last minute corrections with jerking movements and running into unprotected intersections without proper foresight and planning. Even the worst drivers don’t do that. Fsd is both impressive and dumb at the same time. Are people gonna risk their lives for something that makes bad decisions just because it CAN make good ones
@@josephray6454 I think with the advancements in AI it won’t be long before fsd can properly plan ahead for more than just a few seconds at a time. This is the main issue. I watched Dr. know it all speaking about this and I totally agree. It needs to be able to plan ahead for minutes not just seconds which is currently how it’s trained. If it can plan ahead and see the bigger picture in its planning path, it’ll be able to make better decisions
I also think Tesla should release a ridesharing app and give all the supervisor driver free fsd l. That’ll be good for training more cars and spreading the word of teslas capabilities and also make it easier for drivers to complete rides
There’s an intersection in San Francisco that if you don’t veer slightly left and go straight, you drive right onto railroad 🛤️ tracks, and I’ve almost done it several times despite my city knowledge and skill…
Sneaky AF! 😂
the difference between waymo going slow and tesla FSD going slow is because you are a passenger in waymo, you don't feel the anxiety when there are drivers waiting for you to go, sitting in the drivers seat in a tesla on FSD is different cuz if it goes slow people are going to take over all the time, because they feel the anxiety if the car isn't moving fast enough
Excellent point!
9:30 I like this idea a lot; my unique spin on it would be that Tesla should get into agrivoltaics and partner with farmers along major interstates to install agrivoltaic arrays and provide power to very large supercharger stations with megapacks. The integration of crop production and solar PV production is a very, very interesting space and still in the early phases of development. It's the perfect small niche within the larger solar industry where Tesla can insert themselves and leverage their world class engineering talent to develop new types of racks and rapidly deployable solar systems
22:34 totally agree with Gali here. All of those are fantastic suggestions for the Tesla retail stores.
It’s clear Gali was deeply impressed by the Waymo. I’ve been in one too, and the difference is night and day. I’m bullish on Tesla’s efforts but we have to keep in mind the gold standard is not Tesla right now. And if you’re going to prove you’re good, you gotta do as good or better than a waymo driving with lidar in a geo-fenced location.
Taxi hail app should allow passenger to select drive mode speedy or chilled....
The fact that this drive become more a discussion of everything but the drive says it all. It was such a relaxed uneventful drive it became more a Ted talk about Tesla. Amazing how I soon realized I was listening to the discussion not watching FSD perform.
Great chat! Thanks. I went Austin for CyberTruck event. I drove in from Omaha. I’m familiar with driving in other states, including SoCal and Tennessee. The roads & highways in Texas are (without a doubt) the MOST COMPLEX, and confusing (by far) than anywhere else I’ve ever driven. I will Never drive in Texas again.
Tesla is just available to many people. Right now there is a rainbow of opinions. Some people thinks is very cautious (me) others think is too aggressive (Galy).
I have seen multiple videos of Waymo messign up and getting stuck or having to go around the block because missing a turn, etc.
Come to Boston to experience every possible edge case. FSD is good for wide clearly marked lanes, mostly 90 degree angles, and low to average traffic, but not ready here yet. I have to disengage quite a bit due to wrong lane choice, being too close to the curb, indecisive behavior, and sometimes even for safety critical situations. I will be curious to see the progress in the next few months though. When it can master Boston, then I can see it get to level 5.
Lane selection hesitation and speed modulation has definitely regressed w v12.3.
I wonder how many FSD trial participants that started the month on it are still using it mid-month? And I would be curious to know how many will either purchase or subscribe at the conclusion of their trials?
In reference to the mode at which the robotaxi drives you in. If you get in as a user and select your experience (chill, normal, aggressive) already implemented in FSD as they get in with their location and mode already requested when they request the robotaxi ie. “Take me to the airport aggressively” or “take me to the my parents house in chill”
50:12 "that should be easy"... I hate to say this, but that could very well be the hardest part if it's something the company culture doesn't jive with 🤔
FSD sucks in the rain. It kept telling me my cameras were blocked, kept my speed low which pissed off other drivers. Robotaxis need to work in the rain.
It works in heavy rain for others. Driving slowly is not a bad thing.
I guess it acts more like a human right? If rain hinders visibility , you slow down i suppose to assess the risks. That's actually a good thing that fsd can do that
Ronotaxi will be a two seater initially. How come that is an Osborne effect to M3 io MY???? I don't get it.
NO. It's not.
8/8-2024 🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖
🤖🚕
Not yet but getting closer!
Imagine when robotaxis are out if airplanes land close to a big parking lot full of robotaxis ready to take its pasengers wherever. That s a customer experience and a half!
Damn FSD failed in the first 4 mins by not taking the ramp to highway. The highway stack needs to catch-up. It misses exits (not planning in advance) and has serious safety merge issue on highway as before. No where close to robotaxi but trending in right way. Hopefully can get FSD robotaxi pilot trials started in 2025 across various cities.
Lol Farzad almost said “the best customer is no customer”
How do you factor in ppl that cart stuff around stuff for work… employee fleets? 🤔🤓
Probably have to refine some training on FSD for Cybertruck due to uniqueness of a new design.
My question would be can it avoid accidents coming at it like a car moving into you?
Keep an eye on the Boring Company boring a tunnel under the highway along the Texas Giga Factory. I assume that will the first test for fully autonomous driving. The cars will leave the factory autonomously and park themselves. They can do that because it’s all private property. They can use that to hone the smart summon capabilities.
oh, what you guys just said is that robotaxi should not be a small 2-seater economy box. It could be the size of Model Y but maximized for interior space potentially with 1 comfort desk so that one can work and 3 others sitting comfortably shooting the breeze or having a work meeting. Maybe they need 3 sizes... A 2-seater for solo rides, a 4 seater for small groups and larger type maybe for trips with gear and such. Very interesting divergent future. They might need to spend a lot of resources in inventing new suspension, maybe the interior could be floating.
I got a ticket for going straight in a right turn lane 6:12
Imagine the RoboTaxi like the LasVegas Sphere in 4 wheels... No window, just screen... What do you want inside or outside, anything could be possible. Put publicity outside or taxi like when stop. Inside like you prefer... immersive game, disco party ambiance, desk ambiance ou just see outside (from camera). Very crazzy...
You say FSD 12.3.3 We received our 1 month free trial of FSD after S/W update 2024.3.15. Our 2024 M3 RWD drove us around Victoria, BC 🇨🇦 last night effortlessly and safely. Where do I see what version of FSD I have we?
Bring the once mentioned Mad Max mode for FSD. I haven't heard anything about this in years but you could dial up or down to your comfort level as a 'rider'.
“What up everybody, this is hyper change”
Passenger riding having a conversation
“Like like like like like like like like like like like like like like like like”
Just say what you want to say Bro! 😮
The showroom thoughts are interesting. If the cars can drive themselves, they can potentially just drive to your house when you buy it. So even less of a need for a showroom.
I got .4 and it’s so good!
Love the thumbnail of Gali from 7 years ago 😂😂😂
It is definitely NOT robotaxi ready. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
They're saying FSD needs to go slower, but most are complaining it's going too slow. The modes need to be more differentiated (for the scared drivers like Gali chill should drive noticeably slower etc.)
In SF Waymo doesn't go over 25 mph, and I'm fine with that as I don't worry about a couple of minutes, but many people on FSD would be freaking out if Urban and residential was limited to 25.
Another difference may be that you quickly stop paying attention with Waymo so your worries decrease.
Finally, Uber has raised their price and Waymo matches it. So about $20 for 3 miles. I was carrying a bunch of items otherwise I would have taken the bus
If FSD was $6000, I would buy it. But $12,000? Seriously? That is too expensive for the average EV buyer!
Yeah I dont see the worth in it at its current use case. But I could see it as worth much more if FSD is fully solved. 12.000 is very cheap if it replaces one or two taxi drivers for the lifetime of the car. So to me its like an option call or a lottery ticket. But I think the subscription model might be better be cause you can set it to match the current fsd level of performance and then increase it dramatically if and when its fully autonomous.
Narrator: No, it was not
FSD always wants to get on the highway. there needs to be a setting to "avoid highways".
I feel this is worth mentioning again because everyone keeps talking about the Robotaxi in August. They are likely to unveil it in August, but it will probably not be released until the end of 2025 or mid 2026, giving the FSD team 18 to 24 months to improve upon what they have now.