Understanding the war in Ukraine (19) - Conclusion
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2022
- STG Director Prof. Alexander Stubb sheds light on the war in Ukraine in a series of video lectures. Each lecture highlights a different aspect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This 19th episode concludes the series. About 130 days into the war, Alex Stubb takes stock of the current situation, and given an outlook at what may be to come.
Previous video lectures in this series cover the general situation, Finland, Europe, "the world", Russia, China, the United States of America, NATO, Power, instruments of power, the West and the Rest and the New World Order. It also features a number of interviews delving into specific aspects of the war with EUI professors, including economy, energy, technology, EU enlargement and the transatlantic partnership.
This episode was recorded on 4 July 2022.
For more information, check out the School of Transnational Governance website: bit.ly/3lNanrs
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #AlexanderStubb #Russia#Putin #USA #America #Europe #EU
Subscribe to stay tuned for new formats in September 2022!
i believe 2 things have come to the realization from this war. One is putin had learned to weaponize refugees from the syrian refugee crisis to europe and even the southern migration to the us border to divide populations and prevent them from uniting. he had hoped to use ukrainian refugees as a weapon to divide europe just as he had used syrian refugees. that has obviously failed.
the second realization for europe but especially germany, that the concept of change through trade is over. mainly change through trade with russia. this is seen with the funding and building of the 3 seas initiative which will change the current trade route from west to east, to north to south cutting russia out of european economy and affairs. why has this happened, russia is a security risk and they do not want to allow russia to continually hold their economy hostage with energy in the future.
russia has a declining birth rate, and europe and the developed world moving towards green energy and renewables in the future. these two factors played a role for putin knowing in the future russia will not be able to field large armies with a declining birth rate, as well with russian economy not diversified and dependent on fossil fuels for revenue, will likely not have a bright future so he attempted to grab as much new land and resources as possible for russia. he had hoped the west with battered economies recovering from covid would not unite against russia.
Thank you. I am looking forward to it.
I can’t wait! Thank you for your diligence.
**Wars launched by the U.S and NATO: Guatamala, Cuba, Vietnam, The Congo, Nicaragua, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and the list goes on! Shouldn't countries that claim to oppose war avoid starting wars in the first place? Shouldn't countries who claim to advocate peace refrain from undermining peace?
@@alihammid2578
*Dear Hammid , "Prof. Alexander Stubb" have no idea how arrogant and blind he is . He thinks he is chosen one to "educate" the whole world by his 'precious' standards using his 'precious academic position' which is just his empty title to hide behind* .
/ in other words he is not worth to listen , not competent at all - because of self-righteous people like him we have such a situation on the Planet /
After yesterday's events, I had to come back to these outstanding lectures, simply to say my congratulations on the new job as a newly-elected President of Finland. This lecture series was what convinced me that you are a thinker and a leader Finland needs at these times. Because of this series, you got my vote long before your campaign was announced.
Once violence starts, War takes on a life of it’s own. We might be mistaken in thinking that we can control events, but rather, events will control us. The best thing to do in order to bring the War to an early end would be to exert the maximum effort to help Ukraine win. The incremental approach we have taken so far could turn out to be a grave mistake.
Well said.
@@simian_essence thank you.
Agreed! URGENCY must be a priority of the west! Seeing how Ukraine may have just missed their opportunity at a great offensive for Kherson because they didn’t have enough heavy artillery really frustrates me to no end! What does Ukraine have to lose, have to endure, have to say to us; in order for us to act with urgency? Every day we hear of another horror Russia has committed. And the best we can do is say “I’m sorry this is happening to you! Stay strong you will win” that doesn’t cut it for the American people for the west and anyone other democratic government. We have to, have to, put ourselves in their shoes! What if that was me who was raped as a 12 year old and the internal damage from it was so massive that I almost died and had to have my insides reconstructed at 12 years old. Yes this has happened and she was too afraid to say anything she was ashamed. But she got an infection and almost died before taken to the hospital. If that was my daughter what would I want done to the perpetrators??? I would want their Emanate and immediate swift death to them and those other invaders. I could go on and on about the atrocities of the Russians 20,000 + war crimes but you get the point! We have to act now, we have the power to flip the script on Russia instead of letting them cripple us. Let’s do what they are doing to Ukraine. Invade and hold a fake referendum and spilt them up into a bunch of little states. Then enforce our government upon them. It’s only fair.
Just the opposite. The sooner Russia wins, the sooner the was is over. And this will be good for the entire world. Except the shithole country USA who started it all.
"Wars carry on" and can carry on not just for Years but decades. *"serious peace"* is a real business in point of fact (deconfliction zones) so discussions about "the War" are hard to have any bearing made towards without reference to peace which of course the "wheat deal" was supposed to I imagine begin the process of. But of course the exact opposite has been the matter at hand with now a very real danger of a War in the Balkans to lay claim to as next. What can be stated unequivocally as fact is that not just ExxonMobil but many other US publicly listed and traded equities are indeed to reference US President Joe Biden "making more money than God" because of this #strange #peculiar War.
This has been my weekly dose of level-headed discussion about world events. I am a bit sad about the break. Hopefully, we'll see Professor Stubb back soon.
Stubb was and is completely wrong on reasons of war in Ukraine. He goes on about Putin legacy like political cattle. Real Russian reasons to war in Ukraine
1. War is fought to controll Ukraine natural resources.
2. To keep access to Black sea and maintain naval presense in Black sea.
3. To keep up Russian defence organisation image and eradicate internal division (see Kazakstan on this war)
Yes Putin legacy might be there down the list as benefit 100 or so, but it certainly is not among 3 top reasons. Watching Stubb is easy but listening what he says is painfull.
Don't you mean muddle headed cliche ridden lazy arguments
Yup expand your horizons beyond this dudes propaganda
Really this guy is so biased he’s impossible to listen to if you’re not a western media fed moron straight biased clown he sounds like bush yelling they hate us for our freedom how low IQ do you have to be to believe this garbage
Try listening to 'the Duran'.
Thank you so much for this excellent series. I look forward to ,more after your summer break!!!
If I had to choose one source for an informational overview of the Ukraine War, history and geopolitics, this man would be it. He is the adult in the room.
I am in the Justice camp for sure. No loss of Ukrainian territory! I'd rather starve and go hang out in a warm country over winter. My resilience pales in any case to the bravery of Ukrainians.
Thank you, my lady. Having people like you gives us a chance for positive outcome. And it seems, the path of Justice it is the only way. Because if you are choosing between Peace and Justice, and your choise is Peace, you likely will have two opposites - more War and more Injustice...
@@andriianashovam7070 You said it! Without justice there will be no peace anyway.
Trump and Carlson are Putin's puppets. A vote for a Rethuglican is a vote to destroy democracy. Trump stole the documents in 2017 and CIA agents died in 2018. Put them all in Supermax!!!
Precisely the type of thinking that will drag the world into the nuclear war! Given your conviction, you will be fighting with the Ukrainians in the frontline?
@@Nazar33 tanks tanks planes go ukraine
Thank you mr Stubb....couldn't have out it better myself. May the force be with you.
I love good teaching. And I want to add my voice to praise your clear, rational explanations of this war. I will miss these lectures this summer. I have added your discussions to those of Ian Bremmer for geopolitics and Kevin Rudd for China.
I've listened to every one of these insightful videos. Prof Alex Stubb you are a genius. Thank you for sharing your unvarnished view and vast intellectual knowledge with us all.
I cant listen to Alex Stubb, it is just western propoganda
Such an intelligent and sensible presentation. The world needs more people like this gentleman in leadership.
He was shit at leadership. Seems like where he is now is the right place for him. Keep him out of any decision making stuff.
@@inso80 huh. That’s interesting…and kinda disappointing. Still, I better he’d do a better job than the leadership of my country. But that’s a rather low bar.
@@mrq6270 I would not count on that if he was given the same circumstance.
@@mrq6270 I did a quick check on our prime ministers and I would rate him the third or fourth worst prime ministers we had since 1990, which is about as far back as i can remember and actually know.
only 2 I would say were definitely worse, maybe 3, but can't remember specifics of Esko Aho, whom I dislike for many reasons, but not sure if he was actually worse when in office.
Worse than him definitely were Jyrki Katainen and Juha Sipilä. Not counting Anneli Jäätteenmäki who held oiffice for only 69 days and got kicked out for lying and defending it with "I speak the truth the best I know how to." Overall, she probably would not have been as bad as these fellows.
@@inso80 ok. So, honestly I've never heard of any of those people. But I'm curious as to what criteria you use to rate their performances. Corruption is an obvious no no. Are they bad for different and unique reasons, or do you fail them all for similar reasons? Do you find them too left, or too right for example? Is it their handling of the economy, or maybe social issues etc? Getting kicked out of office in less than 3 months is pretty spectacular I must say!
Sir: Thank you so very much for your extremely clear, relatively slower speech. I allows a thoughtful listener to think about and analyze what you are saying. You are vastly superior to all others.
Highly focused on the most relevant points: past, present and future. A very fitting climax to the series. I wish that all policy makers and thinkers about the current situation consider this. Cheers and great appreciation!!!
It's a pity this series is over. If the series were to continue, I would suggest further topics: 1. "Imperialism of Russia and the White man's burden of the West, key differences". 2. "Western values under fire" with several topical videos: a) Freedom of conscience examplified by Twitter bans, RUclips demonatisations, Facebook independent checkers and PayPal blocking based on political views, freedom of the press with unanimous "Evacuation" instead of "Surrender", b) Globalisation and free market examplified by sanctions on states, monopolistic policies in finance and key economic spheres, and economic lobbying, c) Democracy and people's power examplified by the EU bureucracy, COVID restrictions and other measures imposed on people without any feedback processes, d) Defending high principles examplified by Biden's trip to the muderous Saudi prince and supplying weapons to the Yemen war, Scholz visit to Senegal and Nigeria torn by civil wars inspired by the US, the US stealing Syrian oil, the US choking ordirary Cubans, Venezuelans, and now Afghans with pointless sanctions and Finland entering the same alliance with Turkey, sorry, Türkiye. 3. The "New Liberal Order" defined and imposed by Pres. Joe Biden and its ugly ramifications.
The series was really very interesting, Prof. Stubb, thank you, for what it's worth
I confess i did not watch all of his series, I watched maybe five, or six of them, but I find the points you are making lacking on those chapters I saw, and find not touched by Professor Stub.
I need a good laugh and this man provides me with that.
Tack så mycket, Kiitos paljon, Thank You Alexander for Your whole series of info about our present dilemmas about the war situation in Europe.
Spot on analysis!
Hope all that can , has a great Summer break!
Professor Stubb , for your 1st point in this video it seamed that an important point you didn’t mention was :
Another of Russia’s reasons for invading Ukraine was the Geopolitical gains to capture and claim the Eastern Warm Water port Cities along with all the cantons they belong to as well as almost full control over the Black Sea.
Study geography. There are many warm ports in Russia.
Just think of the port facilities that Russia could have built on its black sea coastline with the $20+ billion dollars it has spent in Crimea since 2014, let alone with the money that Putin has spent on this current invasion, or the revenue lost due to sanctions over the last 8 years.
@@user-si2dr1pn3p 😏 not enough though! And it’s a long way to reach global clients from up north and above China. I’m sure the Kremlin would love to own coastal ports directly in the Mediterranean Sea.
Remember that for the Kremlin, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical disaster. And it really was. And they want that power back !!
@@seanniemeyer5437 Having own harbors is not enough. Georgia, Ukraine and Romania must also be deprived of theirs.
@@jmolofsson I would suggest that passively breaking Ukraine's economy would enable Russian adsorption. I theorise that economy of Ukraine was largely intentionally retarded by Russia in the decade leading up to 2014.
Thank you, wonderfully concise summary to wrap up this series.
Thank you for the great series!
Thanks for your objective analysis of the Russian-induced conflict in Ukraine, as well as for proffering candid solutions. I'm looking forward to more interesting lectures in no distant time.
The United States and Britain provoked a war in Ukraine.
"Russia-induced"?? So in other words, you don't know anything about what's going on here...
Your presentations on the Russo/Ukraine war have been some of the best analysis I have seen on all of this, thank you for your enlightening work.
What a ridiculous man with his pompous manners.
Russian imperialism. Yes of cœurs there is russian imperialism since they have been attacked by the west several times. But they defeated Karl the twelfth Napoleon and Hitler.
This stupid professor doesn't seem to know history since he nevers refers to it.
Russia will win this time too..
A series of very professional presentations and analyses.
Democracy first! Very good professor and thank you, this is democracy vs autocracy. There is no middle ground.
All crimes were committed under the false flag of the "struggle for democracy". The West has killed millions of people "in the name of democracy."
@@user-si2dr1pn3p I will not say you are incorrect but I will say that millions of people have been killed in the name of just about anything you can think of. Russia is killing Ukrainians in the name of denazification right now. The west did not roll across Ukraine's border killing and raping in the name of democracy. The west did not bribe or coerce Ukraine in any way, although; a former president of my country did try extorsion on Ukraine he did not get away with it because he was stopped and he was stopped because my country is a democracy. Ukraine looked to the west, liked what she saw and wanted in. The primary reason Russia attacked is for the reason professor Stubb stated, democracy scares the absolute crap out of autocrats. Ukraine was willing to take the extremally difficult steps to becoming a functioning democracy, there was a good chance she would have made it and there still is.
Glory to the hero's of democracy!
@@MarkM001 Democracy in Ukraine??? ha ha ha! A good joke))).
Ukraine is ruled by a bloody puppet Nazi regime established by the Americans in 2013.
Russia did not invade Ukraine. It was NATO that invaded Ukraine. And Russia came at the request of the Ukrainian people to help overthrow the Nazi regime.
It is NATO that is killing Ukrainians for its own profit. But Russians and Ukrainians are fighting together against NATO and the Nazi regime.
Ask Libya, ask Afghanistan, ask Syria - how the democracy went for them. At the same time US, EU are happy to praise countries such as Saudi Arabia or UAE. That's the hypocrisy. We say that we dont like autocracy, but we don't talk about the above countries. Moreover, what is their view? Or that doesnt matter?
@@SuperTheLycan Democracy is not easy and just because a country call itself a democracy does not mean a country is a democracy.
Thank you Alexander! Great help! Hope you keep these talks coming.
Thank you Prof. Much appreciated 🙏
As always, sober and professional based on great insight. Truly great
Professor Stubb: .."I would assume the Europeans will end up footing the bill for the reconstruction...", no, I don't think so given the fact that Germany and France , the two largest economies , have been so miserly in their support for the war effort to date.
The US Congress has declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. This allows plaintiffs to bring claims to US courts for settlement with frozen Russian assets.
With the exception of war fatigue, everything Stubb says here still applies.
nice insights and explaination..truly no lies..
Putin the Terrible is how history will see him as! That's the legacy that he will leave!
That depends on who is writing the history.
No you are looking at Putin from the viewpoint of American propaganda. America has killed more people than any other country in history, not Putin. America has supported and financed 41 of the world’s worst dictators and overthrown democratically elected governments. It has bombed more countries than any other country. You are yet another opinionated American who has very strong opinions but no knowledge of history except what he gleans from Hollywood movies. Have you seen the number of foreign ministers and business leaders attending the St Petersburg Economic Forum, where Putin speaks and answers questions for 4 hours? Biden can’t talk for half an hour. America is in decline and will be exposed for what it is
Big title poor explanation failed to give the true cause, course and consequence of the war in your door.
Thankyou Pro Alex enjoyed listening to yr lecture about the war in Ukraine all the best from Samoa small island here in the vast Pacific ocean.
I’m really disappointed that this lecture series have no episode on Ukraine itself. It uncovers that there is really no knowledge on this country among European intellectuals, and politicians. As a consequence, no agency has still been recognized for Ukraine, after all what have happened and is still happening. However, thank you for this lecture series. It was very interesting to learn the European academic prospective on the war.
I think the EU and the west more broadly (as a westerner) need to be very careful about the prospect of trying to force countries to take sides in a new cold war type situation. If we (the west) start saying "we won't help you unless you adopt our foreign policies and restructure your government" but, say, China (as this is their policy) and associated organizations (BRICS and SCO) keep saying "you don't have to support our foreign policy aims, or change your government type, we'll still partner with you on trade & tech"... it won't be any shock when all these otherwise "fence sitting" countries develop animosity towards the west/EU, because the west appear to be the unreasonable/forceful/provocateurs while the Chinese and Russian (ironically given Ukraine) look like the "reasonable" sovereignty-respecters who just want to do business/be "charitable".
BRICS knows this too, I think, hence their making a point at their last summit of emphasizing how they aim to support trade and economic ties regardless of "differing" foreign policy stances of their members (ie. China and India can be rivals and still be BRICS members... Iran and Saudi Arabia can both join and still have issues over proxies... etc). They're already trying to lay the groundwork for painting western countries as having a continuing colonial mindset and superiority complex that is hostile to the global trade and business environment... and that narrative is spreading. Saudi FM basically repeated it verbatim after Biden's last visit, refusing to join in "attempts to isolate China", and stating the countries position that such "economic hostility" is destabilizing and inappropriate. Saudi Arabia has proceeded to buy more oil from Russia. This being a, nominally, US aligned middle eastern country.
Global south is a battleground which the west is losing because the west is being too forceful in trying to convert it to our own "order". US bore the brunt of this embarrassment with the Summit of the Americas, boycotted by several countries including Mexico because the US refused to invite Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua. Many of those who did attend (ie. Brazil) did so reluctantly while others vocalized discontent at the summit itself. Whole thing turned into an embarrassing diplomatic failure rather than a show of renewed US prevelance in Central and South America. This trend doesn't seem to be reversing either, as Columbia (arguably the US's most consistent ally in South America) just elected a leftist President, for the first time ever in its history, who favors renewed relations and cross border trade with Venezuela's Maduro.
It is simply easier for countries in the global south to align with countries such as China, as opposed to the west, on economic matters because the Chinese don't attach political "terms and conditions" to doing business. All they want is, in their words, "win win cooperation" and the development of a "multipolar world" where sovereignty is King. That prospect is far easier to get behind for leaders in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia more broadly than having to adapt to the west's "rules based order" at the cost of trade with other partners and unpopular societal reform (see the pushback in Africa from efforts by western nations during the Obama administration to demand reform on LGBT rights). If you can have China & Russia as your main partners and they're totally find with you also doing business in the west, but the west as your main partners would require you to sever ties with Russia and China... why would you prioritize the west? Too many concessions.
Many ideologues here may not like it... but the reality is, as long as we try to enforce "global liberalization" we'll be generating disdain and contempt from everywhere else and creating fertile breeding ground for Sino-Russian sympathy.
You are right but it seems the west as it looks now is not capable (and not willing) to change. Because the change is against its existing "business model".
" If you can have China & Russia as your main partners and they're totally find with you also doing business in the west, but the west as your main partners would require you to sever ties with Russia and China... why would you prioritize the west? Too many concessions."
Bingo!
I do not think the US, and its Western European partners can see that clearly!
You know a lot more than this supposed professor
@@philthompson8574 Not only a professor, that he served as Prime Minister of Finland, so he is politically motivated to express his views, as well, taking account the Historical relationship, between the two countries, not always cordial.
@@cybercuichi Finland has been attacked and bullied by Russia for many years so when Alex Stubb speaks it is not because he is 'politically motivated to express his views'; it is because he is motivated by the blood of his fellow Finns who have fought against Russian imperialism. Who else would better understand the actions of Stalin and Putin? Finland and Ukraine are trying to survive and they see their best chance of survival with allies based on democracy rather than on autocratic masters holding a gun to their head.
Thank you, Prof. Stubb, for this lecture series. I hope you return in the fall with additional lectures.
You might want to look into American geopoliticists Peter Zeihan and Ian Bremmer for some interesting views on globalization. Zeihan feels that globalization is ending, while Bremmer believes it's in trouble but can still survive. Both are quite thought-provoking and I think you would appreciate their insights.
Prof. Schubb is ideologically bias. His whole premise and conclusion could not be more tainted. What a waste of intellect! You'dd better read Maersheimer instead! Bye bye!
Magnificent series. Many thanks from Japan.
The only thing countries have learned from this debacle is never give up your nuclear deterrent.
Whose "debacle"? Ukraine can develop and use nukes right now. It has resources, science, economic capabilities and time, because the Russian offensive it very slow. They even have a Chernobyl Power Plant. It's also a nuclear bomb of a sort
Thank you so very much for your insights. You were very helpful……
I love the clarity of explanation of Professor Stubb. He points to major reconstruction for Ukraine and future guarantees for Ukrainian security. Of course, the war still grinds on with Russian missiles killing and destroying property. I don't think that Russia can begin to understand it's future isolation and it's consequences. I hope that the war ends soon for poor Ukraine.
Russia will not be isolated, is not isolated now. The majority of countries of Africa, Asia and South America support them. The BRICS group has become stronger and now offers real competition to the G7. The end of the unipolar world and the birth of a multipolar world is invisible to many, but it is happening. Soon enough, the meek of the earth pray, neoliberalism will be replaced by social democracy and other forms of socialism, and when it does the United States will collapse under the weight of its cruelty to the poor, sick, weak and homeless.
Professor Stubb, I like your clear words and voice that we understand.
Thank you
enjoyed hearing your perspectives, thanks for making these videos.
I can not thank you enough for your analysis of the Ukraine War. This is information that you could not get somewhere else. Extremely informative, Professor Stubbs.
Whenever “realists” point out that Ukraine must eventually give up land for peace, I inquire how much land the taliban had to give up to get Russia to leave after 10 years of combat and the USA after 20 years of combat?
The taliban won. Russia and the USA withdrew because they lost. The Taliban did not have to give any concessions to get the Americans to leave
For peace I advocate pushing Russia out of all Ukraine including crimea. Doing what it takes to help the Ukrainians do this. This is punishment for invading Ukraine starting in 2014 and for the atrocities committed. All Ukraine sent to Russia must be returned. And use Russia assets to help rebuild Ukraine. My idea is that Russia needs to be taught they cannot invade and take other countries. Nor can they work to get slivers of Russia controlled territory in other countries (Moldova, Georgia etc). And last punishment is to take back Kaliningrad and turn it over to Hague or some aid organization. Or a European/USA base to help prevent a repeat of Russian imperialism and genocide. Peace will be established when Russia decides it is too costly to invade and turns to developing their vast and bountiful country versus exploiting it.
Good point. If the World War III becomes too hard for us, we'll all immigrate to Afghanistan, because the Afghans always win
@@cynthiaarnold1371 , you've set the bar very high so anything less than that would be a win for Russia?
@@NTraveller Seems to me everybody loses in Afghanistan, including the Afghans.
Prof. Stubb can be my lecturer any time! ❣
Thanks for an incredible series.
Thanks, I don't think ceding territory to Russia would be a wise move for Europe. It's a horrible precedent that encourages more of the same behaviour
What would happen is, Ukraine will have to cede all territory to Russia. That's their original aim. Either Russia gives up on this conqueror tradition, or Russia ends.
From school bullies to international bullies, if the bullies are not stopped early, their aggressions get worse until extreme measures have to be taken. History shows that imperialist regimes [like 1930-40 Germany, for example] will start small, and if not stopped increase their demands. Putin seemed to be using the same methods and justifications used for the annexation, piece by piece, of Czechoslovakia, starting with saving the Germans of the Sudetenland [just the same as Putin's claim to save the Russians of Donbas], and progressing to the occupation of the whole country and its neighbors. Not only is Putin a bad man, and inept ruler, he is a mere copier of Hitler's plans, a thief, a despicable plagiarist!
@@JMM33RanMA When will you stop the international hooligans - the USA and NATO? They destroyed half of the planet, including Ukraine.
@@lorenzoluisalbano3695
if i don't give you an icecream, does this mean you end?
@@ursodermatt8809 I don't go around beating, robbing and raping my neighbors, least for all for ice cream, heh... If someone goes around robbing, raping and killing like Russia has done for centuries (because we are not talking about ice cream) somebody like the tough Ukrainians (all the toughness of Russians comes from them) finally resists successfully... and that's the end of the perp. It's just and proper and delightful, poetic justice to see Russia do to itself what it planned to do to Ukraine. Happened once to the Soviet Union and it seems we need a second time.
Thank you for covering these world issues; it has been interesting getting to know you as a leader on the world stage willing to give a world perspective about the war in Ukraine and the changes in Scandinavia as to NATO in connection with the war.
So you really believe this crap? His analysis is far from objective. Don't be deceived.
I, we in the Phillipines very much appreciate this series of conversation about the why, how and when this Russian Ukrianian conflict shall end, and what world order it shall spawn. I trust that you shall continue your lectures, Prof. Alexander Stubb, and thankj you.Good evening.
Thank you. Excellent summary and very good points especially regarding Russia's fear of democracy.
You mean putins fear of democracy. Im sure the Russian people would love democracy.
Why did Putin sign off on Donbas remaining Ukraine in Minsk?
Why were Putin's efforts at negotiation ignored?
Excellent and useful analysis. Worth see and shared.
Selfishly I wish your lecture series did not conclude here. There is so much more that could be fleshed out. Nevertheless, the time and effort you’ve invested in making this series available is much appreciated. Thank you.
I have enjoyed the series immensely; tragic though the circumstances are.
These lectures have been on point!
Sad that more people haven't seem to have found them
Yeah, I don't get it. Here is a leader that is nose to nose with the problem and so many are ignoring it.
West is more vocal in abortion laws than Ukraine war😅😅😅
@@AB-gj6id What a nonsense comment
But thanks for feeding the algorithm
@@benghazi4216 You probably misunderstood that comment. He agreed with you and you behave like you are in impassable disagreement.
@@innocentiuslacrim2290 Can you learn to read? Who is my post directed to?
Reflect before you point fingers at others
Phenomenal series. Thank you, Prof. Stubb.
Thank you professor Stubb for this lecture. I really appreciate your input as you are in a much more unique position to provide insight.
Make sense, especially about Putin's legacy. I didn't expect the invasion but I knew that Ukraine will be tough defender, it was best armed republic in USSR and until now this war is 99% fought with USSR weapon stocks.
We stand in awe of your clarity of thought, word, deed and action. Such a fine mentor of the how to conduct ourselves with those values that are of timeless and intrinsic value. We thank you so much!
Love Professor Stubb's public lectures! Thank you for this!
Hope that these sober and considered lectures will continue after the summer
It's good analysis for a western expert. Thanks from Ukraine
Thank you professor Stubb for this clear and perfectly structured presentation. Being Russian I was curious to find a detailed review on the current crisis, the way it is seen from the West. Great job!
Honesty, it hurts every time when speaking of imperialistic ambitions and aggression you say “Putin and Russia”. Putin is not Russia. I know not a single person who supports what is happening in Ukraine. Definitely there are a lot of people in the country infected with propaganda (which is also one of the key points in understanding this war). But the reason lies rather in the off-scaled imbecility level of Russian society than in that innate aptitude to attack, suppress and dominate. They are Putin’s traits and it is his war.
There are 200 000 Russians (40 000 dead now) that went to Ukraine and are committing horrific actions (including torture, rape [of men, women, children and rapes of babies], mass murder, theft) there. You say that you do "not know a single Russian that supports the war" but clearly there are plenty.
нашла кого слушать... типичный скандинавский русофоб. послушай лучше лекции John Mearsheimer
Then you are in luck, I know probably five people from my real life everyday connections that don't support this war and a hundred that do. For all the propaganda reasons - of course, but the thing is - i know that they know what's really going on and that makes it much worse.
@@holden_fella Russia’s defeat will make that hundred wake up. Hopefully.
@@innocentiuslacrim2290 Yes, I understand what you're talking about. And it’s a real shame that today Russia is seen through the horrible actions of those 200,000 orcs. I can only hope that once my country will have a chance to recover from idiocy and cruelty so we could start changing its image in the eyes of the civilized world for better.
You are amazing sir! This being my very first time seeing you here @ RUclips... I now will have be go backwards & start from your first video/episode. I truly enjoyed this episode. Thank you from the 🇺🇲. God be with these sovereign people of Ukraine 🇺🇦💙💛🌻♥️🇺🇲
Great lectures ,Alexander stubb.
Thank you, Alex☆
I admit I didn't hear the entire series of lecture I just heard that one ,not a lot of valid points you made though I do have to agree with you on your last note regarding the sooner the war will end the better.1) No serious military person thought that war would take 2 days only idiots in the media Who does not understand a Single thing about modern warfare And people who actually look at the amount of Fortification that the Ukrainian have prepared for the last 8 years in the east knew that actually this is going to be a grind that this is going to be a long war. 2) The sanctions are backfiring too mostly because Russia is a large country is the largest country in the world it's twice why isn't the size of the USA Other than gas they provide: mineral , fertilizer metals nickel uranium I mean you name it they're full of natural resources That we need at the West too.
3.was most of the world is Completely against the russophobia that the Western media Promote. They might not support Russia but they certainly doesn't support the sanctioning of Russia. If it hurts their economic interest.
Exactly!
If Ukraine desires complete territorial integrity, the west must fully support it with the weapons and resources necessary to defeat Russia. Russia cannot be allowed to simply annex territory because the west is to fickle to stop it.
This series reminds me of my upper level undergraduate and, moreso, of my graduate courses in political science and international relations. The rise of regionalization within globalization was the topic of my final paper at the Maxwell School. Professor Stubb presented theory, but theory tied to history and facts on the ground [if I wanted non-fact grounded and dogmatic theory I would listen to Prof. Mearsheimer]. The structure was essential in separating the facets of the material to be discussed. If I were still teaching, I would definitely want my students to view these videos. I would probably want them to watch Prof. Mearsheimer's video and the takedown thereof in order to understand the other side of the issues. Thank you Professor Stubb for your interesting, informative and thought-provoking lecture series.
Excellent educational presentation.
"Due to intrinsic tactical complexities, the Russians are retreating forward while our boys are tactically advancing backwards " -zelensky
Seriously?
A highly intelligent presenter. A rarity on RUclips
Thank you on these lectures. Very good.
great presentations and great channel
Thanks Stubb you've been balanced in your analysis of these events.
Did you say balanced??? 😆
Yes.
What does it matter if Putin fears democracy or fears NATO expansion into Ukraine? Russia felt an existential threat and that's why they attacked Ukraine.
That is just how States behave. John Mearsheimer was absolutely correct
No. European states have not behaved this way since ww2. Some states have split, but no states attacked another in Europe. Only Russia
@@cynthiaarnold1371 , European countries felt existential threats from other countries like Iraq and Afghanistan and they attacked just the same. Does it matter if the existential threat is arguably democracy or islamism, or terrorism? By the way, I'm not defending Russia; I'm just making an academic argument
Everybody whom the US attacks fears democracy. Because the US epitimises democracy. If US attacks Venezuela, Maduro fears democracy. If US attacks Iraq, Hussein fears democracy. If US attacks Syria, Assad fears democracy. If US attacks Afghanistan, Afghans fear democracy. If US attacks Serbia, Miloshevic fears democracy. And so on... Prince Salman does not fear democracy. Because you have to buy oil somewhere ))
@@NTraveller , good point.
Western liberal democracy is not necessarily the best system ever invented by mankind. Maybe humans will invent a better system in the future.
Feeling an existential threat from democracy can be quite rational.
@@cynthiaarnold1371 , why is attacking in Europe any worse than attacking in any other part of the world? Europe is not any more special than other countries.
Btw Serbia was attacked.
Anyway, I subscribed to your channel to have some good debates, and a chuckle. Please have your fanclub, to bring it on.
As for the end game, Russia must pay for the damage it has caused, not America and not Europe. Sanctions, including secondary sanctions, should be maintained or increased until it does. With respect to territory: Ukraine gives up not a square inch, including Crimea. Russia painted itself into this corner and now needs to deal with all the consequences. Any comparison with the sanctions Versailles imposed on Germany, leading to German rearmament and aggression, are misguided because Russia is a rather shaky “federation” of the largely unwilling, which at some point will need to break up. In fact, the break-up of both Russia and China is becoming increasingly inevitable. At that stage we vacuum up the nukes, make deals with the newly independent Asian states, and try not to destroy ourselves in the aftermath with our own suicidal decadence. Something like that.
Sanctions should be imposed against the United States and NATO for their numerous crimes against humanity.
Ukraine will be divided between several countries. Zelensky has already sold western Ukraine to Poland.
Cool story, robo warhawk, but you're just parroting one side of propaganda
Crimea voted and passed with over 90% of its vote to join Russia in response to the illegitimate coup in 2014. Just ask any Crimean!
@@redraptor9688 Warhawk? I hope not. I’m American, but don’t think very highly of the wars this country has engaged in recently. I think Bush started a war under false pretenses and therefore should be tried for treason. The thing is, however, that once Russia crossed the border with Ukraine and started destroying Ukrainian cities, all arguments about the niceties of who-said-what or manufactured historical justifications go out the freaking window. In that case, if someone just up and starts a war with you, then you had better be a warhawk because you don’t have any choice. Zelensky thought right up until the end that Russia wasn’t going to do it. He was wrong and had to adjust his thinking accordingly. Russia had a fistful of options but deliberately chose war. All right then, so be it. Now Russia has to lose and Russia has to pay or we’re all a hell of a lot worse off. If you think that is one-sided propaganda you really aren’t paying attention to current events.
@@nightspore4850 First you say youre not a war hawk, then you turn around and try to justify being a war hawk.
Of course, you had to paint a certain picture in order to do this, and it's an inaccurate picture, but I still chuckle at the irony.
Speaking of irony, it's ironic that you claim to know that we started the Iraq invasion (on the other side of the world) under false pretenses, and that is true, but then you act like you don't know what started the Russo-Ukraine conflict (which involves next door neighbors). You act like it started with Feb of this year and with no provocation.
How convenient, then, that you dare tell anybody else that they "apparently" don't know anything about current events.
You even claim that Russia had a "fist full of options" which means one of two things. Either you're completely out of touch with reality, or you're being willfully dishonest. This conflict actually started in 2014, and it even has seeds before that. You either don't know about these things or deliberately leave them out. It is a fact that Russia's actions are justified at this point, and that's why only the "west" (the USA and it's European puppets) are against them.
So yeah, it's propaganda when you either parrot one side pretty much verbatim OR you lay out this and that for one side and pretend it isn't there for the other. You did both
Thanks for your clear and insightful lectures, looking forward to more in September. Ukraine has to be the victor, Russia must be held accountable for what it’s done, no lessening of sanctions. We can live with a new Iron Curtain. IMO
I’m intrigued by your channel. I just happened to stumble on this channel.
I find it odd that you're contradicting the Pope the pope certainly has a large unbiased holy staff from which to draw information and of course his desire for world peace is unquestioned
This series has been invaluable. Thank you. A "dust has settled" analysis would be welcome after the global politico-economic sequelae have become clear.
I want to thank you for your unbias and professional guidnace regarding complicated issue of war in Ukraine. Your lectures are very helpfull not only to understand the depth of issues arising out of war in Ukraine but also shining a perspective into the future. I am very grateful for sharing your knowleddge as an politician who knows the diplomatic relationships and in general Europe. Thank you. Nadiya
@@nadiyakovalskyj3346 I suggest that you post the above as a free-standing comment. (Currently, it's buried.)
Love to see your 3 points on the absence of 'western unity' against the wars running continuously in Africa for 100 years
africa is a china and russia yard. why west should do more than take migrants beyond what they could/should?
@North Korea Is Best Korea sarcasm must get lost in the brain washing
@North Korea Is Best Korea I attempting sardonicism
Is there a means to use blocked Russian currency reserves to foot the reconstruction bill?
Thank you Mr. Stubb, ttfn.
10:37 "... a post Ukraine world which is multi-polar ..." That specific term "post-Ukraine world" can be misunderstood easily, meaning the country instead of the war. To me it has a frightening and negative connotation.
Indeed!
But we may be heading that way. There is a large group of *_shielded_* European countries (from Ireland in the West, Benelux and Germany in the North, Italy and Greece in the South and Bulgaria in the East), who easily prefer to see Ukraine annihilated instead of themselves taking part in a war that threatens getting their cities nuked.
Then there is another group of countries, directly threatened by Russian imperialism, say Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. These countries are smaller and poorer, and have every reason to fear an American withdrawal from NATO, which for quite some time has looked likely. Once the American nuclear protection is gone, they'll get picked by Russia, one after another. Their only chance is allying, rearming hastily and training their defense forces, like Ukraine did after 2014. If they wait until America has withdrawn, it will be too late.
Well done series of lectures….
Thank you for your well laid out thoughts on the Ukraine/Russia conflict/war. All your guests were interesting…. Have a wonderful, restful… summer……!! 🌻🌻
Just superb!
Great stuff - loved the analysis. Regarding the conclusion on the multi-polar world, it seems to me that Russia will decline in power and influence as a consequence of the Ukrainian war.
Also, I think we are likely to have a bi-polar world at least for few years, with China and other authoritarian regimes on one side, and the West on the other. In fact, I'd argue that the new world order will mostly involve the West v. China - with the authoritarian regimes lacking proper internal economic structures to finance their influence. China's influence will be hampered by the internal conflict between its desire to capture wealth through decentralized economy and its desire to maintain its current political structure.
It is interesting what roles India, Iran, and Venezuela will play in post Ukrainian word.
Very perceptive, I have been wondering about this. You might want to view the videos of Peter Zeihan, though finding real ones is a problem as his presentations are often republished in pieces, some with attached propaganda.
yes, india!
they will try to walk the fence until such times as they fall down and then?
ohhh, we are democratic, we were always on your side, rah rah rah
What are you on ? Canada just turned into a Dictatorship, when Justin Castro (Trudeau) introduced Bill C-11.
@@ernstwiltmann6
yes, canada joined russia in the war in ukraine
@@ursodermatt8809 Not our clepto government, but the more informed tend to be more and more pro Russia. Specially our Freedom Convoy Truckers and our Farmers.
This completely absolves the west and NATO of any responsibility for this war. Which is simply not true. I stand with Prof. John Mearsheimer’s views on this.
Ruzzia had nothing to offer for the Ukrainians and the eastern Countries; only oppression. NATO offers protection, economic development/integration and participation. That is why NATO expanded. Sovereign countries making their own choices; even if Ruzzia doesn't like it all, and you Putinversteher!
You are absolutely right.
Exactly. This video is pure propaganda.
Mearsheimer’s views are laughable. Also, he's paid by russia.
@@coke2679 which views specifically?
Didn’t Americans warn Europeans about Russian gas for many years? Why does American have to come and save Europeans from wars they start?
lets see if this sweet words are winter proof
That's a wicked joke
I find these presentations very insightful. Where I slightly disagree is with the roll of NATO expansion. This is Russia, the ex superpower. To believe that bringing a military alliance to the border of Russia did not affect decisions is naive. Not that this would ever happen, but if Canada or Mexico joined a Chinese or Russian military alliance the U.S. would react very quickly. Regarding the West and the rest, the West is in a difficult position. I believe that we should look forward but many countries have memories. How does South America view the moral standing of the U.S.? Do not misunderstand, I find authoritarian regimes abhorrent, but when the West gets on its moral horse, history has shown that horse to be lame. Then there is the problem of stupid condescending comments coming from the West. When it was found that India was buying oil from Russia, a U.S. spokesperson said that India must consider which side of history she wants to be on. India is being lectured while Europe readjusts the sanctions to suit its interests and is still buying Russian fuel. Biden said that hypocrisy is not a virtue. Does the West have a definition for hypocrisy that the rest of the world missed?
Sovereign nations should be entitled to make decisions on economic and security aliances without the threat of invasion. NATO security is very important for foreign investment security especially when your neighbour is expansionist Russia. Putins actions in 2014 crippled industrial foreign investment in Ukraine and significantly damaged Ukrainian economic growth.
How would Ukraine and Russia be different if Putin had respected Ukrainian sovereignty in 2014 and not invaded Crimea or facilitated the separatist movement in the donbas.
Economically both Ukraine and Russia would be better off today. They would have maintained strong economic ties while receiving increased investment into the region. This would have benefited both the Russian and Ukrainian people. (It's easy to forget that the Ruble was 30 Ruble to the dollar in 2013.)
I am not going to discuss Mexico or Canada giving up their close economic ties with the USA for stronger ties with China. Before the 2022 invasion Ukraine was a long way from meeting the necessary requirements to join NATO so it is a moot point.
Besides before discussing NATO growth in Europe we would need to discuss why nations felt the need to apply for NATO membership. NATO is about security after all.
@@seanniemeyer5437 Yes, sovereign nations have the right to do as they please. The Baltic States, Finland, Poland and a few other countries who suffered Soviet aggression can never be blamed for joining NATO. I am glad that they are members of an alliance that makes them feel secure. Unfortunately the geopolitical chess board is complicated. For example, the U.S. has been involved in the overthrow of many governments and has supported some of the world's worst dictators, and this is despite the fact of presenting itself as the bastion of democracy and freedom. Being such experts in dealing with dictators one would expect that dealing with Putin wouldn't be a problem for the U.S., and yet. A few American academics and politicians foresaw this crisis. Even Germany and France had reservations about NATO expansion to the Russian border. But thankfully quite a few countries made it into NATO without too much fuss. Russia did complain but the West did not pay attention. Wether or not Ukraine could have joined NATO is a moot point now. Let us say yes, Ukraine join the club. The Russian Black Sea fleet is now based in a NATO country. OOPS! So Russia takes Crimea, which, believe or not, was not a surprise to everyone. We could sit and try to figure out whose to blame for the present disaster, but that would not help the Ukrainians who are dying as we speak. Personally, I blame Putin, after all, he did fire the first shot. At the same time, I do not see us as completely blameless. I am no expert in geopolitics but a few people who are did sound the alarm. What concerns me now, is how do we save Ukraine. Sending weapons, although helpful, is not enough. NATO at the moment is a spectator, which is not completely helpful to the Ukrainians. Can Ukraine sustain, what has become, a war of attrition. People have told me, what can we do? Putin is a dictator with nuclear weapons. My answer is, perhaps more thought should have been invested before rattling his cage. Let us hope that Ukraine comes out of this while there is still something to save.
@@stevekontis8992 for putin and many older Russians the cold war has never ended. Ukraine could not join NATO while the Russian Black Sea fleet was based in Crimea (well spotted).
Russian federation spent $20 billion dollars in Crimea in the first 5 year after the annexation and lost a similar amount in government revenue due to Crimea related sanctions over the same time period.
Putin could have built the best modern black sea port on the russian black sea coast, and modernised its black sea fleet, for that money. Then again with the money wasted on the SMO, Putin could have developed infrastructure throughout Russia greatly increasing Russia's industrial capacity and bringing wealth to tge Russian people.
@@seanniemeyer5437 The Russian people would have obviously been better served with you as their leader. We have pretty much established that Putin is a less than savory autocrat. You are also correct in describing the political establishment of Russia as a cold war relic. The biggest fear that Ukraine poses to Russia is the former's path towards democracy. Ukraine is a large country with substantial natural wealth. Ukraine's economic ties to Russia are important to the latter. Ukraine joining the EU would pose two problems for Putin; economic and political. Ukraine would have become an example to the Russian people of the benefits of a properly functioning democracy. You are absolutely right; as long as Russia is run by Soviet relics the futur will remain bleak for Ukraine. Hopefully the sanctions will cause enough misery to invoke some meaningful change in Russia. The question is, will it be soon enough for our brothers and sisters in Ukraine.
Russia has a long history of losing wars. Past security guarantees to Ukraine have guaranteed nothing. There is no point in accepting promises from Russia, which has a long history of bare faced lying. Ukraine should get all of its land back or be permitted to have nuclear arms. Ukraine's territory was guaranteed by Russia, in return for giving up nuclear weapons.
That is so true, and that is why Putin must go, one way or the other. Russia, when they do win a war, are left with unlimited destroyed territory, see Syria (Aleppo), the war in Georgia and Armenia. With their weapons and massive corruption, Russia could not beat any country with a standing army. Ukraine are better fighters than Russia was willing to give them credit for. NATO is more unified than ever, with Sweden and Finland joining in the face of Russian aggression. This whole war has played out exactly as Putin feared, 800 further miles, 1300 km, of a direct Russian/Finland border, that if Russia attacks, Art. 5 of NATO will be invoked to a hot war with all of NATO promising to protect the country attacked. Trump did all he could to destroy NATO, but that failed miserably. The good will prevail, the world can live much better without Putin and Luckeshencko who both are in danger of being overthrown. He should have just let Zelensky join NATO, and there would be so many more Russian military personnel still alive, and less of a border with Russia. Oh, “the best laid plans of mice and men, often go awry.”
Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, so I would never trust Ukraine with anything. Zelensky is demanding money and weapons from the world and feeding the world lies. There has been a civil war going on in Ukraine for the last 8 years. Western Ukraine has been murdering Russian Ukrainians by thousands and nobody is talking about it. If this person would honestly discuss this , I would gladly consider his opinion. As is , he’s full of hot air. I recommend this German Documentary
“ Ukrainian Agony. The concealed war “
Get your money back from your history teacher.
Ukraine can develop and use nukes right now. It has resources, science, economic capabilities and time, because the Russian offensive it very slow. They even have a Chernobyl Power Plant. It's also a nuclear bomb of a sort
Study history, not propaganda.
If Russia were losing, it would not have such a huge territory.
If the United States had not invaded Ukraine, there would have been peace and happiness there.
pls come back after the summer in similar format
I have never watch any of your series, but I see your conclusion both good and some how abit bias against Russia. For me I pray that all of the parties involve to put an end to it, and let there be peace in Ukraine and the world at large.
I am really glad I came across someone willing to talk about things just straight. Russia can win but its at a huge cost. Ukraine will likely "win" if the war continues on in this trajectory but they say war is less predictable than sports. Thanks for putting this up.
Understanding the War? Understanding the US - Terror? This is US - Politic!!!
12/13/22. Loved your lecture series, topics, guests & questions for the future. I vote for Justice ⚖ while hoping for a Peace with Ukraine keeping all its original territory, especially Crimea. Hope you begin another lecture series after Christmas & New Year. Stay safe & healthy!👍👍👍💪🍷
Thank you!
Thanks
I would argue that
1) Zelensky himself is potentially an Alexander the Great (Greek) style figure in this war. Taking away from what Putin desired for himself.
2) Russia is acting way more in tandem with China , and other parts in the general anti western conquest .. and we will see more in the coming 5 years. Just like in WW2
3)The west was caught off guard
4) I would compare the current moment as similar in the momentum of war as to the same time in WW2
5) I doubt that this is going to end soon .. the world is just waking up at the foothills of something potentially major. The longer drastic action is stalled and the more concessions are made, the stronger the aggressor will grow .. step by step , taking bit by bit over decades.
6) This is the dawn of an era of information technology , where the impact of the internet via aspects like social media and artificial intelligence is appearing and growing, as expected , and is not going to ever go away
Im the one that thinks that Russia needs to pay.
I think Alexander the Great are the Ukranians, not Zelensky. Despite his courage.
1) Zelensky is a professional actor playing a role for which he receives multimillion-dollar royalties from his Western hosts.
2) The whole world, except for NATO criminals, supports Russia.
3) The West has unleashed a war in Ukraine as well as in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Yugoslavia and dozens of other countries.
4) Yes, the USA unleashed WW2 to get out of the economic crisis. They earned billions of dollars on WW2. And now they want to repeat their success.
5) The more sanctions the West imposes against Russia, the tougher Russia's responses will be.
6) The West uses information technology for information wars. Absolutely all Western media spread false propaganda.
@@joaogarcia9488 what should Russia pay for? For the crimes of the West? The West must pay reparations to Russia and Ukraine and all the destroyed countries - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Iran, etc., etc.
@@HeadhuntexGamer Zelensky is a professional actor playing a role for which he receives multimillion-dollar royalties from his Western hosts.