It's so nice listening to someone who knows what they're talking about, has actual experience of international politics and doesn't feel the need to use hyperbole to get in the news.
What do you mean? He's just a parrot. It was in his job description. His expertise is the way he delivers the regurtitated content. Tell him Europe is the new 'Poland' caught in the middle of another world war. Finland will flicker briefly.
I think it's safe to say we can stop calling this a mini-series at Episode 9 of 4. ;) Congratulations on your success with this really informative format!
I've seen every lecture and I really admire prof Stubb's ability to distill complex subjects to most important and easy to understand points. He's a great communicator and educator. Awesome series of lectures. Keep em coming!
Excellent lecture about international power interactions and the complexity of it. It is the interrelationship of power and abuse of it in the case of Russia in Ukraine that has direct relevance today. A country can project power on another but needs to be circumspect in that. Otherwise, it will be perceived as a bully that the world must discipline as strongly as it can. Also the warning about being too focused on the past "glory" is very relevant for Russia and any MAGA Americans. The parallel is like driving a car and only looking at the rear view mirror. Disaster may be looming in the future if you don't look forward. Again a great lecture and series!
Thank you Prof. I have listened to all your lectures so far and I do hope there will be many more. I enjoy the manner in which you present these lectures and I have learned so, so much. I am from South Africa 🇿🇦
It is refreshing to hear from someone with practical and applicable experience, as well as academic credibility, in the international affairs world… especially at length beyond talking points.
I’m amazed by the clarity of thinking,and projecting the big picture,we need some politicians like this gentleman down on the Balkans.Thank you for your efforts,keep up the good work.
I love the comment re power being static and not only look back at your past as you will lose the sight of your future. It is similar to 3 axis representing hard, soft and smart but 4th unseen axis showing time. It is like a balloon chart in 3 axis. Size of balloon representing the aggregate effect of perceived power. Fascinating indeed.
In Italy we are small power hopefully smart 🇮🇹😀 thank you Professor for this very interesting and clear lecture … by the way I am a supporter of good faith and educated people power …
Italy is reasonably large for a European country and if it acts smart and pushes for agreeable compromises, it could execute big power politics via the EU. Which begs the question, what does Italy want from world politics?
@@jansix4287 Italy has experienced the conquer and the lost of empire (Romans) … then we tried to set up some grandeur strategy with Mussolini and finally we killed him and badly lost WWII, along with Germany and Japan … Italy has gone through many lesson in history…now the country is aimed to protect the Alps and the Sea and try to develop good life conditions for their citizens … being a very open democracy all points and opinion are available, even the more stupid ones … here people tend to orient their political view depending on their degree of frustration (you feel your conditions are worsened by the government? then you tend to go against established powers and even strategic international alliances) … we usually say “does it rain ? It is Government fault” … in any case, towards other countries, Italy’s interest is always oriented on possible economic business and protection of energy resources but in the same time, the country has always been involved in all the n military operations led by US, with a significant roles, this meaning that the military system is well prepared and capable …Also, preeminent national interest is the developing of a new EU system based on majority, without any veto power and establishing cap prices for gas and joint buying process
@@claudiomannoni5557 To develop good living conditions for its own citizens a country must influence geopolitics as well. You can’t just let the US lead you wherever that may be (the Iraqi desert?). Power is not concentrated, but diluted. Italy is not powerless, it has influence and should be aware of it. Little Finland is shaking the international boat by demonstratively joining NATO right now. What a strong symbolic act and an inspiration to the world. Exactly what Macron tries to do with his every plan. Once in a while when there is a good opportunity, Rome should speak up to push the world in the right direction. Be brave! Viva Italia. 🇮🇹
Two additional power dimensions it would be fascinating to hear you cover: - Asymmetrical/Symmetrical power (e.g. the outsize effect of 9/11), and - Overt/Deniable/Covert power (e.g. the west doing relatively so much less when the little green men initially invaded Ukraine in 2014 compared to February 2022)
I would pair together the covert type of power with confounding one - the ability to formulate and spread false or half-truthful narratives to shroud one’s actions. It’s an imitation of genuine soft power as it attracts support via false or irrelevant concepts, mystery and non-conformism, while overt power is less of an imitation as it appeals to transparency, decency and unity, i.e. popular values. As such Crimea thing was largely ignored as it was understood that the region at large wanted to be a part of Russia. The transparency and honorableness of it is another question but the annexation was successful largely because that aura of local support. Quite similar with the Donbas war of 2014, though there was a lot of blood so it was met with more criticism. Overt power, I guess, is what the West now largely practices in Ukraine and SE Asia, as both of those would rather risk conflict with their alignment with the West than be under yoke of Russia and China.
Well, I have thought about the nature of power for almost a decade now and the key to understanding for example US power is the combination of its value projection (i.e. Hollywood, all of its entertainment-media industries as a whole, the big mainstream media corporations like CNN or the New York Times, etc.) with its technological edges and not just in one sector, like AI research or military, but several. (Sidenote: one of the reasons why tiny Taiwan is so important is its high tech computer-chip production.) And then there is of course America's profoundly advantageous geo-location: protected by oceans in the East and West, a weak neighbor in the North and South, with an abundance of land and ressources. The exact opposite of my country Germany. One of the most important aspects of power is without a doubt the ability to control what people believe to be as the truth and reality, in past (history), present (the news) and future (policy goals). Which also leads directly to the big tech-media companies and their ability to direct access and priority of information: Google/Alphabet control around 96% of the search engine market and have the ability to highly influence what citizens get to see, hear and read, thus in all likelihood strongly influencing what they will think and act accordingly. This of course weakened by 'Western' media polarity, but something similar can be said of Facebook, which also owns Instagram and Whatsapp and other big media companies/de facto monopolies. And the big tech companies are, of course, as we know since Edward Snowden deeply in bed with the American so called intelligence community. The same is true of US mainstream media. Then there is of course the international finance sector: Wall Street, rating agencies, the infamous Petro-Dollar and American banks, equally infamous since the large financial crisis from 2008 and basically onward. At some point the international organizations like the WTO, WHO, or even the UN for that matter could have been seen as American projects - which is increasingly less so. One of the reasons why some Americans go as far as advocating for leaving the UN, including the security council. All of these components are backed up by US hard power, the aforementioned intelligence community and its military, including its nuclear arsenal. And already if you just focus on the military, you clearly see how many aspects interline: diplomacy, value projection and national/regime reputation/prestige, cutting edge technology and personal qualities which impact soldier combat morale, officer leadership, military structure and combat effectiveness. Russia was seen as clearly inferior in all of them, but the pure military sector; now the reality of the military sector which many experts knew before, has become visible for the global public. All of these aspects interlock, all of these aspects are indispensable. But the core, the essence if you will of US power is its ability to make its allies (tributary client states) go along with its interests, be they foreign policy aims or desired forms of government, or even direct tribute payments. Which is exactly why Russia's actions in Ukraine are so utterly devastating and outright stupid in terms of its own interests: NATO, which Emanuel Macron had called brain dead, is reborn; the trans-Atlantic alliance, which had been one of mutual estrangement and not just since Donald Trump, has been reforged; the dominant worry of US imperialism of the Iraq War days has been replaced by Russian aggression and nuclear threats; finally any, in particular French and German "Gaullist" attempts of geo-political independence for the EU and neutrality in the Cold War between the USA and China are dead and buried; while Europe, as a continental unity, is divided and broken since Brexit and Russia's war. Russia has, practically overnight, destroyed decades of German foreign policy and given the declining power of the USA the best boost it could have asked for. Lastly, Britain and Russia couldn't be more different. Yet both of them have, for reasons of Imperial nostalgia, sacrificed the real present potential of a new Empire. A prosperity zone of common stability, security, wealth and freedom from Lisbon to Vladivostok. And the same must sadly be said of the EU political leaders who have forsaken practical political necessity, good governance and Europe's real interests for the sake of outdated ideological dogmatism which has given rise to right-wing populism and national chauvinism in the first place. The European Union, with both Britain and Russia in it, could have been the dominant Superpower of this century. Instead we Europeans as a community of nations have shown that our greatest days are behind us and that the battle for the world will be fought between the USA and China, with both Russia and the EU just trail-blazing additions. My disappointment in our peoples couldn't be greater.
Lots of good thoughts there. How about legal power? I mean the rule of law and to go along with that morality. I've wondered for some time why some countries attract foreign investment and others do not. Why do the people of some countries have a good living and why other countries do not? This is where the power of law thing comes in. If a corporation is saddled with bribes making investment risky, the corporation may not invest there. As a result, the people may not prosper. The country will not develop. If a country's leaders run off with tax dollars rather than reinvesting in the people, there is less chance for the people to prosper. I'm just saying that despite it being scoffed at by many people, there is a power of morality. A corollary of that is trust. If the people think their leaders are dishonest or unjust, they will be undermined in many ways. It becomes a sort of vicious circle causing the country to spiral downward.
Because of the conflicting interests of nation states, EU (or rather "Europe") naturally cannot compete on even ground with singular entities like the US and especially China. European balance of power often fluctuates like clusters and with that comes the good and bad. I do agree with your point about recent political divides in Europe and what it has/had the potential for. I personally hope for the exploitative populist/showman/one issue politics trend to die off with newfound wisdom for what peace and stability actually costs. We need leaders that care about our continents future.
Generally good observations, I think. A few remarks, though: - Calling US allies "tributary client states" is a very misguided label, and a deep misunderstanding of how alliances work, even when one partner is dominant. Trumpism suffered from the same problem. Cultivating good will in your relationships is a value in itself, and means that allies will support you in many areas without you using coercion. It is a mutually beneficial alliance. - I don't necessarily share your skepticism about the EU's future. Russia joining the EU was never even a long-term prospect. Good relations with Russia - that's definitely possible. Again, international politics doesn't just consist of zero-sum power struggles. And close ties with a (more) democratic Russia (even without membership) would be mutually beneficial to both. So while Brexit was a definite blow (but in the end not in the EU's power to prevent), it was nowhere near fatal. That overestimates UK importance just like Brexit did. Right-wing nationalism and nationalist populism (doesn't even have to be right-wing, though it generally is at the moment) is a much more dangerous development. The EU has the potential to assert their position even without the UK and Russia. When the UK gets over their protest phase and moves closer to the EU again, even more so. They don't even have to re-join. Again, there are alliances that have similar benefits to both sides.
Interesting ideas and analysis that is consistent with the current World Order based on the Rule of Law. I would suggest that what you've identified can be a starting point in any discussion of what some might want in a new World Order since for at least the last 10 years or so, restless competing superpowers like Russia, China, Iran, India or any other aspire to topple the US and replace the current World Order with something different. For starters, it's obvious that nearly all of these competing adversaries are autocracies, each may or may not have some democratic institutions but none of them can be called a liberal democracy because there is no competition for leadership and its leaders are generally in power for more than a decade, maybe multiple decades. They all chafe at being limited by Rule of Law, and few even try to use Law as a tool and a recognized set of common behavior. Vast concentration of power is what they respect and command and they are not shy about using the power they have and understand. It would be interesting if the world was truly ruled by the most powerful, exercised in brutal fashion when autocracies can simply take what they desire without worry or consequences because in all likelihood that would likely be the new World Order so many adversaries of the United States and like minded countries support and enforce.
So here Prof. Stubb is using his power as an individual, in combination with the power of a media company, Google (who owns RUclips) to empower other individuals and perhaps through them other organizations / companies. Just a random thought, but it would be really amazing if we could actually measure the real world impact of a relatively simple series of lecture like this one.
NATO is the greatest hard power. Liberal democracies are the greatest soft power. And, together they are showing the greatest display of smart power through the economic isolation of Russia. China recognizes this by announcing its withdrawal of investments into Russia and its tacit compliance with the sanctions.
@@wanghui562 Increase in investment? More like taking advantage of Russia's isolation and buying up oil and gas for cheap. China still hasn't given Russia any real concrete support, nor has it ever officially stated support for Russia in this war. That shows that China understands that Russia is a sinking ship, and that the West has the upper hand. The whole "Russia is winning and West is losing" narrative is only Chinese domestic propaganda, inside the firewalls China lives in an alternate reality.
@@isunlloaoll Your democratic system allows immigrants who out-reproduce the old population to flood into Europe and America in greater numbers. This is a suicidally short-sighted system. It is unknown if you grandchildren will be Muslims living in sharia law or not.
@@wanghui562 no you did not. I think you are getting fed Chinese Propaganda from your state owned TV. Go back to the great wall of China firewall before they noticed you here.
NATO is made up of liberal democracies and they're not the greatest power. Russia has shown their military and economic might as well diplomatic intelligence, beyond anything existing in the collective west. While Russia's media power is not up to the evil west but that suites their character and humor. The west is creaming Russia in media power but at the end of the day, Russia understands that so long as their people and allies understand what their government is doing, the west can win as much media power as it likes, while Ukrainians are being pulverized, that military might on the battle field counts. The western sanctions? Russia flooded with cash and customers lined up ready to buy whatever Russia is selling, Russian inflation coming down, the people and their allies are happy, that's what counts to the Russians.
casually references Foucault's Pendulum 💜we need more communicators like that, who teach us from an assumption we are generally intelligent but not informed on their topic the way the Shape of power is described here - as transitioning from a landscape with a few dominant superpowers to a complex ecosystem of big, medium, and small powers; to me that is very reminiscent of the historical societal transformations from the dark ages to the modern age. That is, a shift from dominant aristocracy that ruled over peasants militaries, to the emergence of middle and upper classes that bridged that gap. The reformation, enlightenment, industrial and modern scientific revolutions .. they helped us mature
A minor correction: the Peace of Westphalia and the definition of the modern nation state is of course from 1648, not the 18-hundreds, which would be the 19th century.
Putin is making the mistake of nostalgia for the Russian empire. And so he is falling into the trap of Ukraine. Ukraine is the country where empires go to die.
thank you very much for this series. this one was hard to sit through... it really tested my attention span. I wonder if a whiteboard may have helped with a wandering mind. but still, very much appreciated.
Great lecture. But the US really is a super power using your own criteria of geographical, military, technological, intelligence capabilities, capital, demography, and intellectual (in terms of higher education). And, as we can see from the quality of Russia's military equipment, the competition fostered by capitalism generates more innovation and quality of good and services. The US is also mostly self sufficient in terms of food, energy and other necessities. It really stands alone in each of these areas. Look forward to lecture ten!
Perhaps we could add “Stupid Power” as exemplified by Putin’s Russia. Fritter away hard power for minimal gains and trash your soft power with crude belligerence
I have nothing against the way Alexander looks... But since there isn't much happening on the screen, would it not be possible to also upload this series as a podcast?
I think the words or phrase we're looking for here is network power. A network is both very intricate & complex and at the same time a lever for magnifying capabilities. Hence, its power.
@@wanghui562 I beg to disagree. My country, Switzerland, was until the mid 19th century a collection of 22 small and very independent states, with a very weak federal power... This weakness culminated in a civil war in 1847, a fact few people know. Out of this war emerged a new constitution and a considerably stronger Federal power. This proved to be very successful indeed, resulting in strong and resilient system. Of course, Switzerland is tiny, and doing the same thing at the scale of, say, the EU is obviously much more difficult. But look at it as a successful pilot experiment.
@@st-ex8506 So your country became a more powerful entity by reducing the complexity from a collection of 22 states into 1 state. Thank you for contributing to my point.
@@wanghui562 I may have badly expressed myself, but Switzerland proves your point wrong! We have now 26 states, and they were never "reduced into 1 state". We still have 26 different state laws, 26 different school systems, 26 different tax systems,... but one currency, one overarching federal law, one army, one foreign policy, no internal borders, or "internal passports" like some weird countries are using. We have just evolved a system to live together, complex I admit, but working very well since the 1850s. My point is precisely that our system is VERY complex, but complexity can be managed and made to work. That is possibly the price of democracy and prosperity... but that last assertion is open to debate.
Those opening remarks about power (in general) is interesting, especially the concept that power is naturally distributed and not concentrated. The idea strikes me as perhaps viewing power as related to entropy. The problem I have with this paradigm though is that it suggests that power is a substance that can be accumulated, and when you accumulate and concentrate it, that substance of power is not available to anyone else. There is something wrong with this then, because acquiring power is not a zero sum exercise because when you accumulate power, that does not prevent or make more difficult someone else acquiring power as well. I suspect though that power is not recognizable or useful as a tool unless it is concentrated, so we don't really recognize power as relevant or important unless it's concentrated. This probably introduces a new concept to this paradigm, that every member in the set can acquire tremendous amounts of power, but if all acquire equal amounts of power, can one or more really be considered powerful? We tend to consider someone or something powerful only in relationship to others, as in one is the most powerful and then we consider the lesser others as not powerful. This is an interesting paradigm or framework, but if it really has legs it would have to be defined in detail so it can be useful and not just an interesting idea. So for now I feel this is more of a toy rather than a tool for serious and deep exploration and that's too bad since the whole talk seems to be based on this concept.
Great mini-series, insightful and educational. I like your 1-2-3 approach and the very clear speech. Nordic at its best. Btw - Russia is not mentioned as an example of big, medium or small power (probably not coincidentally 😊)
Could you talk about the agreement signed between Finland and Russia in 1992 as a replacement to the agreement between Finland and the USSR. Would joining NATO break that 1992 agreement with Russia?
@@Aprilium It was kind of a renewal of the non-aggression treaty we had to sign with USSR. Because USSR fell we made a new one with Russia. It's a lot less strict compared to the USSR treaty. Some parts of it might be a little bit problematic for NATO, but considering how many treaties Russia has broken it probably wouldn't be a big deal.
Being a NATO member hasn't stopped Norway recognising their border with USSR then Russia. It is Russia that appears to threaten to breach the treaty, in the first week of Ukraine invasion he attempted coercion making threats. The agreement is reported as replacing one with the USSR, but subject to renewal, "Finland and Russia have now committed themselves not to use force against each other and to respect their 800-mile border. They also promise to respect the rights of each other's citizens on their territories."
Why do you look and sound so much like the G-man? Just a pun. I learned a lot from your lectures. It has broadened my view and compelled me to seek more information on our actual political tablecloth.
hard power is the guy with the biggest gun works everytime soft power is unreliable doesnt work sometimes smart power the big gun buys you friends who need protection and they come with their own problems
When I was studying international relations, my paper was on regional powers. I have a problem with the Westphalia system. The US doesn't actually fit the Westphalia definition of a state. The US government does not have absolute control of its territory, There are several states in rebellion at this time, refusing to accept certain Constitutional rules and court rulings that they disagree with, and also refusing to accept election results that they don't like. The main argument, though is that the US government was established as a limited confederation, with component states retaining more sovereignty than is usual, Switzerland being the only other extant example. The US Constitutional 10th Amendment in question is: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
So interesting as usual,you did not add religious power to your list of powers? While all the great religions encourage followers to practise a life that is good, does no harm and act for the general well being of society. It does not always work out that way. It could be that it is a secondary power, having an emotional content it has often been corrupted under the influence of the other powers. Still it is a great and volatile power that is used as a catalyst by other powers to greater or lesser degree. Would you consider religion as part of soft power? My feeling is that when ever religion is mixed in to governance at a high level it is extremely dangerous and a force that cannot be discounted.
Muy bueno. No me queda claro donde queda Rusia en este esquema. Si perdió su status de superpoder...en que quedó? Poder Medio? Pequeño?...o ni existe? (Gracias- Marcel/Uruguyay)
@@marcelblanchard3295 I’m sorry, I should have provided context for my reply. At university, when a professor doesn’t know the answer to some detail question, or even nobody knows the answer, the reply is “left as an exercise to the …”. So yes, I’m avoiding answering your question because it is not a trivial problem with a Twitter size response. At least IMHO. One thought though: there’s a saying somewhere, or maybe not, that you should never let the nose of the camel inside your tent. I think the same logic applies here with respect to Russia and NATO.
I have to disagree on the weakness of the state compared to some of the other transnational entities. You can see it in any dictatorial country. The state maintaining coercive power rules over all other entities' powers. Any power those other entities have is only what is allowed by the coercive power. As much as the international rules might try to give personhood to corporations or NGOs, they themselves are not people, but are made up of people, and people generally are weak and fearful things that will do a lot to protect their own life.
UKRAINE’S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM ? With tears in their eyes The brave march off Not knowing who shall return. With a proud devotion They brandish their flag Leaving loved ones to wonder and yearn. May we all be buried By all of our children Is an ancient tribal prayer. They're so easy to lose But so hard to forget Such a burden for a parent to bear. The trials of war Will never be forgotten And all which was lost. For those rows of bodies Babies, mothers, sisters and brothers Make it easy to tally the cost. Ukraine has survived all attempts to destroy Knowing the cruelty of war. We who remain must help keep her free For those who can march no more! By Kansas City Poet Tom Zart Google = Most Published Poet On The Web Tom’s 1,650 Poems Are Free To Share! Google = George Bush Tom Zart
Perhaps this "Smart power" has already been prophesied...please consider: "And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, WHICH HAVE RECEIVED NO KINGDOM AS YET; but receive POWER as kings one hour with the beast" (Revelation 17:12) and "...the fourth kingdom upon earth, which shall be DIVERSE from all kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, and shall tread it down, and break it in pieces" (Daniel 7:23).
Personally I think soft power is the only really useful type of power. The international community has pretty low appetite these days for tolerating military excursions. You need other ways to achieve your objectives.
The nation state is not at all somewhat olfdashioned, It is the condition for (real) democracy to function, as the famous liberal (in the proper sense) Ralph Dahrendorf, former teacher at the London School of Econmics, famously stated only a few decades ago. And his statement is still accurate, albeit not much loved by the modern elites, who prefer supranational entities in order to rule out democracy whilst always praising democracy. But which kind of democracy do they mean? After all the communist states called themselves democracies, too. I woul also poit to the fact that Professor Stubb is teach in the universit of transnational governmen. This name is showing its programm. He is an internationalist and therefore has his own internationalistic bias.
To S-Ex: I was in army for 2 years- I like target shooting- I do that a lot and a do it well for years now. I know a lot about modern warfare too. Rockets and aircrafts is something a do like to study. I know, that some cities are destroyed, but Kiev is not Russia showed many times, they could hit any single building inside Kiev from far away-from Siberia for instance. Why is parliament standing and 99% of Kiev? (Because they do not want to destory it) MOST IMPORTANT: Whatever is going on there, it could have been 100% prevented by USA- It was enough, if USA would have assured Russia, they would not expand via new NATO members...(Russia wants some kind of rights like USA- it means no big military close to their borders- and it makes sence to me. I do not agree, that we do not have to worry about nuclear war.. Russia may strike with a small tactical nuclear warhead for instance in Poland according to USA´s general Clark to make a nuclear warning shot-. Poland can not hit back with any nuke. And Russia knows(believes) , that USA would not hit Russian´s with any nuclear because of mutually assured destruction..! Therefore USA would most likely back off. IMHO Europe does not need USA, since USA is not able to defend itself against Russia´s devastating nuclear arsenal, let alone to defend Europe against it. USA is only rising the probability, that non-nuclear states in Europe or whole Europe will be destroyed with nukes one day- it is all what USA "does" for Europe! USA is playing with lives of civilians in Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic right now, knowing , they would do nothing, if Russia would hit any of those nations with a tactical nuke. Here is the link where USA general Clark talks about this problem : ruclips.net/video/dcgJB_Qf2rg/видео.html Even if the probabiliy of this event was just 1% , it should be avoided by backing off now..(no guns deliveries, no more NATO expansion! ) I am afraid, that probability of this event is much higher, something like 10% to 30%. Russia is nuclear superpower whether you like it or not. We do not need USA here to provoke them. We can not help to a non NATO country, because we clearly realize, that we are threatening our very existence while doing so! We joined NATO to be safer, not to spark a nuclear war for non NATO country´s sake!!!(And for the sake of fulfilling USA´s greed to expand via new NATO members...) One more point, even if we would have no nuclear war here soon, once Finland would become a member, or even Ukraine, than again we would have more likely nuclear war then before this new NATO enlargement. Russia would deploy more rockets with nukes closer to NATO, USA probably too, than even some kind of accident may trigger such an event far more easily. You get much less reaction time for evaluating radar screens- to find out and look for possible errors... (All that for endless USA´s greed to expand and dominate the world) Results for Europe? Possible nuclear destruction, or at least much much higher levels of nuclear danger than ever before. Another result for Europe: economical war with Russia causing horrible inflation.... USA is just making money from this all- selling guns to Europe, expensive gas. We have milions of refugees from Ukraine in Europe to look after them for free.... while USA officially accepted just 12 (!!!) of them , yeas just 12 Ukrainiens... USA is disaster for Europe, not Russia... Russia was able and ready to sell as cheap raw materials ! NOT SO USA. IMHO Russia would never ever attack Ukraine, if NATO(understand USA) would not expand so much closer to Russia.
Thank you for the interesting view on power. It seems to me, your explanations fit well only with the US, the EU and European countries, Russia and China - and the explanations align with their policies and capabilities. But what about Arab world, for instance. They only have lucrative resources, and don't have any power except the views on Islamic unity. How can they "develop power"? Export Muslim extremism? How people in Africa should view themselves to stop being a pawn in international affairs?
Extremism produces isolation, e.g. Iran, and the loss of real power-hard, soft and smart. Power is the ability to engage with the world and influence its direction. Russia through its war in Ukraine has shown its only power is suicide and has become irrelevant to the rest of the world. Now it’s only value is to force the world economies into decarbonization quicker than planned two months ago.
The Arabs have regional power battles going on, it's the Gulf Arab vs Iran. They have been exporting extremism and had influence in world events. Africans have problems of division, small European countries were also pawns in international affairs but now pool their weight to gain an economic and regulatory power in the European Union. Yet that is limited, power is affected by population, economy and cohesion.
@@JamesC785, will Arabs be allowed to form a regional alliance? Would you be ok with all-arabian Caliphate? Would the US be ok with it? Because, I don't think they would, and not only because every country wants to retain its power. An 'EU' of the Arabic states is unimaginable
@@s.m.7018, Russia and the Ukraine are Europe, and I claim that Europe's experience is not applicable. The reason I mentioned Islamist extremism is that it appears to be the only way to "engage with the world and influence its direction". No other advice for an aspiring young Arab man who plans to become a new president of his Arab / African country - comes in mind
You can make all the theories you want. There is no excuse for war, end of! The planet needs peace and harmony. Next there will be wars over who owns what planet in space, instead of working together .
The only real power is the ability to undermine and destroy the zeitgeist by understanding its unbearable contradictions: to shift the paradigms in accordance with the ignored and despised reality...
First is your best friends and partnerships lately will be your enemies and fighting. We need to learn from Iron, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Peoples thinking democracy is always free country, freedom every things perfect no fight. But actually a lot of fighting, killing and racism in the democracy country.
Haven’t you forgotten true power? (The absence of powerlessness of anyone) (Unfortunately not achievable in a trivided antisocial „society „ of slaves, slave-guards, and slave-owners, where no one is truly free of slavery and slave-markets/aka „free“market economy, which prevents us of becoming truly human. To overcome this, another conception is needed, and personal development of anyone towards its genetic potential There are not simple solutions for complex problems. To understand big problems adequate , it is inevitable to understand problems and solutions on cellular level. If we fail in the small, we fail in the big at least in square . We cannot manipulate our cells with patented drugs, without our cells show us the middle finger, and we cannot manipulate our enemies, without they show us their arsenals. Mirror mirror on the wall.. what leads to victory for us all? Mirror mirror in your brain.. what leads to friendship?.. what to pain? Don’t fight against the mistakes, be there for what is missing (Pierre Teilard deChardin)
It's so nice listening to someone who knows what they're talking about, has actual experience of international politics and doesn't feel the need to use hyperbole to get in the news.
It is refreshing
Finnish culture. They have restraint and humility.
Ii
What do you mean? He's just a parrot. It was in his job description. His expertise is the way he delivers the regurtitated content. Tell him Europe is the new 'Poland' caught in the middle of another world war. Finland will flicker briefly.
Promise that you will do at least 20 lectures!
This is pure RUclips-gold
I think it's safe to say we can stop calling this a mini-series at Episode 9 of 4. ;)
Congratulations on your success with this really informative format!
ROFLMAO.
It's like auditing a University lecture in International relations & history while sitting at my breakfast table. Can't wait for the next episode...
I've seen every lecture and I really admire prof Stubb's ability to distill complex subjects to most important and easy to understand points. He's a great communicator and educator. Awesome series of lectures. Keep em coming!
Excellent lecture about international power interactions and the complexity of it. It is the interrelationship of power and abuse of it in the case of Russia in Ukraine that has direct relevance today. A country can project power on another but needs to be circumspect in that. Otherwise, it will be perceived as a bully that the world must discipline as strongly as it can.
Also the warning about being too focused on the past "glory" is very relevant for Russia and any MAGA Americans. The parallel is like driving a car and only looking at the rear view mirror. Disaster may be looming in the future if you don't look forward. Again a great lecture and series!
Mr Stubb has as always explained rilliantly explained the concept of power , its size , its a dynamics and its transistorises.
Thank you Prof. I have listened to all your lectures so far and I do hope there will be many more. I enjoy the manner in which you present these lectures and I have learned so, so much. I am from South Africa 🇿🇦
Indeed, these have been extremely educational. It is refreshing to listen to someone that knows how things work instead of just speculating.
He makes me feel like I'm back in a college classroom. I missed this feeling.
One of the best series to come out on RUclips.
This channel and these lectures are a refreshing view on European current events, centrally biased, educational and informative. Thank you Prof.
"We are quite attractive power..." Now THAT is an understatement, any intelligent, advanced human being would love to have such a society...
It is refreshing to hear from someone with practical and applicable experience, as well as academic credibility, in the international affairs world… especially at length beyond talking points.
I’m amazed by the clarity of thinking,and projecting the big picture,we need some politicians like this gentleman down on the Balkans.Thank you for your efforts,keep up the good work.
Keep them episodes coming. Knowledge is power. Brilliant content.
I love the comment re power being static and not only look back at your past as you will lose the sight of your future.
It is similar to 3 axis representing hard, soft and smart but 4th unseen axis showing time. It is like a balloon chart in 3 axis. Size of balloon representing the aggregate effect of perceived power. Fascinating indeed.
Outstanding series. Riveting content. Thanks for sharing your voice reinforcing freedom and justice in the world.
In Italy we are small power hopefully smart 🇮🇹😀 thank you Professor for this very interesting and clear lecture … by the way I am a supporter of good faith and educated people power …
Yes Claudio, but more likely 'soft power'. Italy is everybody's favorite country, even the oligarchs.
Italy is reasonably large for a European country and if it acts smart and pushes for agreeable compromises, it could execute big power politics via the EU. Which begs the question, what does Italy want from world politics?
@@jansix4287 Italy has experienced the conquer and the lost of empire (Romans) … then we tried to set up some grandeur strategy with Mussolini and finally we killed him and badly lost WWII, along with Germany and Japan … Italy has gone through many lesson in history…now the country is aimed to protect the Alps and the Sea and try to develop good life conditions for their citizens … being a very open democracy all points and opinion are available, even the more stupid ones … here people tend to orient their political view depending on their degree of frustration (you feel your conditions are worsened by the government? then you tend to go against established powers and even strategic international alliances) … we usually say “does it rain ? It is Government fault” … in any case, towards other countries, Italy’s interest is always oriented on possible economic business and protection of energy resources but in the same time, the country has always been involved in all the n military operations led by US, with a significant roles, this meaning that the military system is well prepared and capable …Also, preeminent national interest is the developing of a new EU system based on majority, without any veto power and establishing cap prices for gas and joint buying process
@@claudiomannoni5557 To develop good living conditions for its own citizens a country must influence geopolitics as well. You can’t just let the US lead you wherever that may be (the Iraqi desert?). Power is not concentrated, but diluted. Italy is not powerless, it has influence and should be aware of it. Little Finland is shaking the international boat by demonstratively joining NATO right now. What a strong symbolic act and an inspiration to the world. Exactly what Macron tries to do with his every plan. Once in a while when there is a good opportunity, Rome should speak up to push the world in the right direction. Be brave! Viva Italia. 🇮🇹
In Italy you have fish in parliament :)
ruclips.net/video/v6ps3ewne-w/видео.html
This was a very insightful and fun episode. I loved how you explained the manner in which power moves and it is hard to grasp.
wow, this is one of the best talks of the series. So much information to think about. Excellent!!!!
Brilliant lecture. Enough said.
There is indeed a demand for accurate information given clearly.
Fantastic mini series 👏
Greetings from Sweden.
Awesome channel!
You just got yourself a new subscriber!
Keep up the great work you doing here.
Thank you for clarity, during a time of dense fog
Two additional power dimensions it would be fascinating to hear you cover:
- Asymmetrical/Symmetrical power (e.g. the outsize effect of 9/11), and
- Overt/Deniable/Covert power (e.g. the west doing relatively so much less when the little green men initially invaded Ukraine in 2014 compared to February 2022)
I would pair together the covert type of power with confounding one - the ability to formulate and spread false or half-truthful narratives to shroud one’s actions. It’s an imitation of genuine soft power as it attracts support via false or irrelevant concepts, mystery and non-conformism, while overt power is less of an imitation as it appeals to transparency, decency and unity, i.e. popular values.
As such Crimea thing was largely ignored as it was understood that the region at large wanted to be a part of Russia. The transparency and honorableness of it is another question but the annexation was successful largely because that aura of local support. Quite similar with the Donbas war of 2014, though there was a lot of blood so it was met with more criticism.
Overt power, I guess, is what the West now largely practices in Ukraine and SE Asia, as both of those would rather risk conflict with their alignment with the West than be under yoke of Russia and China.
Well, I have thought about the nature of power for almost a decade now and the key to understanding for example US power is the combination of its value projection (i.e. Hollywood, all of its entertainment-media industries as a whole, the big mainstream media corporations like CNN or the New York Times, etc.) with its technological edges and not just in one sector, like AI research or military, but several. (Sidenote: one of the reasons why tiny Taiwan is so important is its high tech computer-chip production.) And then there is of course America's profoundly advantageous geo-location: protected by oceans in the East and West, a weak neighbor in the North and South, with an abundance of land and ressources. The exact opposite of my country Germany.
One of the most important aspects of power is without a doubt the ability to control what people believe to be as the truth and reality, in past (history), present (the news) and future (policy goals). Which also leads directly to the big tech-media companies and their ability to direct access and priority of information: Google/Alphabet control around 96% of the search engine market and have the ability to highly influence what citizens get to see, hear and read, thus in all likelihood strongly influencing what they will think and act accordingly. This of course weakened by 'Western' media polarity, but something similar can be said of Facebook, which also owns Instagram and Whatsapp and other big media companies/de facto monopolies. And the big tech companies are, of course, as we know since Edward Snowden deeply in bed with the American so called intelligence community. The same is true of US mainstream media.
Then there is of course the international finance sector: Wall Street, rating agencies, the infamous Petro-Dollar and American banks, equally infamous since the large financial crisis from 2008 and basically onward. At some point the international organizations like the WTO, WHO, or even the UN for that matter could have been seen as American projects - which is increasingly less so. One of the reasons why some Americans go as far as advocating for leaving the UN, including the security council.
All of these components are backed up by US hard power, the aforementioned intelligence community and its military, including its nuclear arsenal. And already if you just focus on the military, you clearly see how many aspects interline: diplomacy, value projection and national/regime reputation/prestige, cutting edge technology and personal qualities which impact soldier combat morale, officer leadership, military structure and combat effectiveness. Russia was seen as clearly inferior in all of them, but the pure military sector; now the reality of the military sector which many experts knew before, has become visible for the global public.
All of these aspects interlock, all of these aspects are indispensable. But the core, the essence if you will of US power is its ability to make its allies (tributary client states) go along with its interests, be they foreign policy aims or desired forms of government, or even direct tribute payments. Which is exactly why Russia's actions in Ukraine are so utterly devastating and outright stupid in terms of its own interests: NATO, which Emanuel Macron had called brain dead, is reborn; the trans-Atlantic alliance, which had been one of mutual estrangement and not just since Donald Trump, has been reforged; the dominant worry of US imperialism of the Iraq War days has been replaced by Russian aggression and nuclear threats; finally any, in particular French and German "Gaullist" attempts of geo-political independence for the EU and neutrality in the Cold War between the USA and China are dead and buried; while Europe, as a continental unity, is divided and broken since Brexit and Russia's war. Russia has, practically overnight, destroyed decades of German foreign policy and given the declining power of the USA the best boost it could have asked for.
Lastly, Britain and Russia couldn't be more different. Yet both of them have, for reasons of Imperial nostalgia, sacrificed the real present potential of a new Empire. A prosperity zone of common stability, security, wealth and freedom from Lisbon to Vladivostok. And the same must sadly be said of the EU political leaders who have forsaken practical political necessity, good governance and Europe's real interests for the sake of outdated ideological dogmatism which has given rise to right-wing populism and national chauvinism in the first place. The European Union, with both Britain and Russia in it, could have been the dominant Superpower of this century. Instead we Europeans as a community of nations have shown that our greatest days are behind us and that the battle for the world will be fought between the USA and China, with both Russia and the EU just trail-blazing additions. My disappointment in our peoples couldn't be greater.
Lots of good thoughts there. How about legal power? I mean the rule of law and to go along with that morality. I've wondered for some time why some countries attract foreign investment and others do not. Why do the people of some countries have a good living and why other countries do not? This is where the power of law thing comes in. If a corporation is saddled with bribes making investment risky, the corporation may not invest there. As a result, the people may not prosper. The country will not develop. If a country's leaders run off with tax dollars rather than reinvesting in the people, there is less chance for the people to prosper. I'm just saying that despite it being scoffed at by many people, there is a power of morality. A corollary of that is trust. If the people think their leaders are dishonest or unjust, they will be undermined in many ways. It becomes a sort of vicious circle causing the country to spiral downward.
Because of the conflicting interests of nation states, EU (or rather "Europe") naturally cannot compete on even ground with singular entities like the US and especially China. European balance of power often fluctuates like clusters and with that comes the good and bad. I do agree with your point about recent political divides in Europe and what it has/had the potential for. I personally hope for the exploitative populist/showman/one issue politics trend to die off with newfound wisdom for what peace and stability actually costs. We need leaders that care about our continents future.
Generally good observations, I think.
A few remarks, though:
- Calling US allies "tributary client states" is a very misguided label, and a deep misunderstanding of how alliances work, even when one partner is dominant. Trumpism suffered from the same problem. Cultivating good will in your relationships is a value in itself, and means that allies will support you in many areas without you using coercion. It is a mutually beneficial alliance.
- I don't necessarily share your skepticism about the EU's future. Russia joining the EU was never even a long-term prospect. Good relations with Russia - that's definitely possible. Again, international politics doesn't just consist of zero-sum power struggles. And close ties with a (more) democratic Russia (even without membership) would be mutually beneficial to both. So while Brexit was a definite blow (but in the end not in the EU's power to prevent), it was nowhere near fatal. That overestimates UK importance just like Brexit did. Right-wing nationalism and nationalist populism (doesn't even have to be right-wing, though it generally is at the moment) is a much more dangerous development. The EU has the potential to assert their position even without the UK and Russia. When the UK gets over their protest phase and moves closer to the EU again, even more so. They don't even have to re-join. Again, there are alliances that have similar benefits to both sides.
wrong about europe, i think brexit was good even, get the brits out of the way
Interesting ideas and analysis that is consistent with the current World Order based on the Rule of Law.
I would suggest that what you've identified can be a starting point in any discussion of what some might want in a new World Order since for at least the last 10 years or so, restless competing superpowers like Russia, China, Iran, India or any other aspire to topple the US and replace the current World Order with something different.
For starters, it's obvious that nearly all of these competing adversaries are autocracies, each may or may not have some democratic institutions but none of them can be called a liberal democracy because there is no competition for leadership and its leaders are generally in power for more than a decade, maybe multiple decades. They all chafe at being limited by Rule of Law, and few even try to use Law as a tool and a recognized set of common behavior. Vast concentration of power is what they respect and command and they are not shy about using the power they have and understand.
It would be interesting if the world was truly ruled by the most powerful, exercised in brutal fashion when autocracies can simply take what they desire without worry or consequences because in all likelihood that would likely be the new World Order so many adversaries of the United States and like minded countries support and enforce.
So here Prof. Stubb is using his power as an individual, in combination with the power of a media company, Google (who owns RUclips) to empower other individuals and perhaps through them other organizations / companies.
Just a random thought, but it would be really amazing if we could actually measure the real world impact of a relatively simple series of lecture like this one.
That is not an incorrect take. Though instead of or at least before mentioning youtube I would have mentioned the institute.
NATO is the greatest hard power. Liberal democracies are the greatest soft power. And, together they are showing the greatest display of smart power through the economic isolation of Russia. China recognizes this by announcing its withdrawal of investments into Russia and its tacit compliance with the sanctions.
We increased our investments in Russia. I think you are dealing with the world you wish it to be rather than the world as it is.
@@wanghui562 Increase in investment? More like taking advantage of Russia's isolation and buying up oil and gas for cheap. China still hasn't given Russia any real concrete support, nor has it ever officially stated support for Russia in this war. That shows that China understands that Russia is a sinking ship, and that the West has the upper hand. The whole "Russia is winning and West is losing" narrative is only Chinese domestic propaganda, inside the firewalls China lives in an alternate reality.
@@isunlloaoll Your democratic system allows immigrants who out-reproduce the old population to flood into Europe and America in greater numbers. This is a suicidally short-sighted system. It is unknown if you grandchildren will be Muslims living in sharia law or not.
@@wanghui562 no you did not. I think you are getting fed Chinese Propaganda from your state owned TV. Go back to the great wall of China firewall before they noticed you here.
NATO is made up of liberal democracies and they're not the greatest power. Russia has shown their military and economic might as well diplomatic intelligence, beyond anything existing in the collective west. While Russia's media power is not up to the evil west but that suites their character and humor. The west is creaming Russia in media power but at the end of the day, Russia understands that so long as their people and allies understand what their government is doing, the west can win as much media power as it likes, while Ukrainians are being pulverized, that military might on the battle field counts. The western sanctions? Russia flooded with cash and customers lined up ready to buy whatever Russia is selling, Russian inflation coming down, the people and their allies are happy, that's what counts to the Russians.
Great video Alexander. Don't we have a forth kind of power: what about idiot/dumb power?
Yes-we see a lot of that these days
Hiton hyvä Stubb on asioista hyvin perillä ja selittää selkeästi ja monipuolisesti
casually references Foucault's Pendulum 💜we need more communicators like that, who teach us from an assumption we are generally intelligent but not informed on their topic
the way the Shape of power is described here - as transitioning from a landscape with a few dominant superpowers to a complex ecosystem of big, medium, and small powers; to me that is very reminiscent of the historical societal transformations from the dark ages to the modern age. That is, a shift from dominant aristocracy that ruled over peasants militaries, to the emergence of middle and upper classes that bridged that gap.
The reformation, enlightenment, industrial and modern scientific revolutions .. they helped us mature
Thank you Sir, I'm really enjoying these lectures and I'm looking forward to the next one.
A minor correction: the Peace of Westphalia and the definition of the modern nation state is of course from 1648, not the 18-hundreds, which would be the 19th century.
Putin is making the mistake of nostalgia for the Russian empire. And so he is falling into the trap of Ukraine. Ukraine is the country where empires go to die.
Best analysis of Ukraine ~ Great Communicator
thank you very much for this series.
this one was hard to sit through... it really tested my attention span. I wonder if a whiteboard may have helped with a wandering mind. but still, very much appreciated.
Kiitos
keep em coming, this is good stuff
Alexander, can you give your views and thoughts regarding Turkey opposing Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Thanks.
Thank you!
This video should have been played on British TV before the Brexit vote.
Great lecture. But the US really is a super power using your own criteria of geographical, military, technological, intelligence capabilities, capital, demography, and intellectual (in terms of higher education). And, as we can see from the quality of Russia's military equipment, the competition fostered by capitalism generates more innovation and quality of good and services. The US is also mostly self sufficient in terms of food, energy and other necessities. It really stands alone in each of these areas. Look forward to lecture ten!
Who would've thought the Finnish pronunciation of Foucault would be such a good way to start a pub brawl?
Perhaps we could add “Stupid Power” as exemplified by Putin’s Russia. Fritter away hard power for minimal gains and trash your soft power with crude belligerence
I think that ' saving face ' and ' declining empires ' comes into it.
Really gets me thinking of making that PhD.
I have nothing against the way Alexander looks... But since there isn't much happening on the screen, would it not be possible to also upload this series as a podcast?
I think the words or phrase we're looking for here is network power. A network is both very intricate & complex and at the same time a lever for magnifying capabilities. Hence, its power.
Intricate and complex things usually fall apart. Make for a fragile foundation for national power.
@@wanghui562 I beg to disagree. My country, Switzerland, was until the mid 19th century a collection of 22 small and very independent states, with a very weak federal power... This weakness culminated in a civil war in 1847, a fact few people know. Out of this war emerged a new constitution and a considerably stronger Federal power. This proved to be very successful indeed, resulting in strong and resilient system. Of course, Switzerland is tiny, and doing the same thing at the scale of, say, the EU is obviously much more difficult. But look at it as a successful pilot experiment.
@@st-ex8506 So your country became a more powerful entity by reducing the complexity from a collection of 22 states into 1 state. Thank you for contributing to my point.
@@wanghui562 I may have badly expressed myself, but Switzerland proves your point wrong!
We have now 26 states, and they were never "reduced into 1 state". We still have 26 different state laws, 26 different school systems, 26 different tax systems,... but one currency, one overarching federal law, one army, one foreign policy, no internal borders, or "internal passports" like some weird countries are using. We have just evolved a system to live together, complex I admit, but working very well since the 1850s. My point is precisely that our system is VERY complex, but complexity can be managed and made to work. That is possibly the price of democracy and prosperity... but that last assertion is open to debate.
@@st-ex8506 I see your point. Thanks for arguing your point reasonably.
Those opening remarks about power (in general) is interesting, especially the concept that power is naturally distributed and not concentrated. The idea strikes me as perhaps viewing power as related to entropy. The problem I have with this paradigm though is that it suggests that power is a substance that can be accumulated, and when you accumulate and concentrate it, that substance of power is not available to anyone else. There is something wrong with this then, because acquiring power is not a zero sum exercise because when you accumulate power, that does not prevent or make more difficult someone else acquiring power as well.
I suspect though that power is not recognizable or useful as a tool unless it is concentrated, so we don't really recognize power as relevant or important unless it's concentrated. This probably introduces a new concept to this paradigm, that every member in the set can acquire tremendous amounts of power, but if all acquire equal amounts of power, can one or more really be considered powerful? We tend to consider someone or something powerful only in relationship to others, as in one is the most powerful and then we consider the lesser others as not powerful.
This is an interesting paradigm or framework, but if it really has legs it would have to be defined in detail so it can be useful and not just an interesting idea. So for now I feel this is more of a toy rather than a tool for serious and deep exploration and that's too bad since the whole talk seems to be based on this concept.
What a great guy 😀😎 xxx
Bro, you are giving a lecture on politics. I was hoping it would be more of an analysis of the current global geo power politics.
Great mini-series, insightful and educational. I like your 1-2-3 approach and the very clear speech. Nordic at its best. Btw - Russia is not mentioned as an example of big, medium or small power (probably not coincidentally 😊)
Could you talk about the agreement signed between Finland and Russia in 1992 as a replacement to the agreement between Finland and the USSR. Would joining NATO break that 1992 agreement with Russia?
What agreement was that?
No
@@Aprilium It was kind of a renewal of the non-aggression treaty we had to sign with USSR. Because USSR fell we made a new one with Russia. It's a lot less strict compared to the USSR treaty. Some parts of it might be a little bit problematic for NATO, but considering how many treaties Russia has broken it probably wouldn't be a big deal.
Being a NATO member hasn't stopped Norway recognising their border with USSR then Russia.
It is Russia that appears to threaten to breach the treaty, in the first week of Ukraine invasion he attempted coercion making threats. The agreement is reported as replacing one with the USSR, but subject to renewal, "Finland and Russia have now committed themselves not to use force against each other and to respect their 800-mile border. They also promise to respect the rights of each other's citizens on their territories."
Precisely 👍👍👍👍
Thanks for interesting and educational lectures. I’m curious when you say the Gulf, you mean Persian Gulf?
Why do you look and sound so much like the G-man? Just a pun. I learned a lot from your lectures. It has broadened my view and compelled me to seek more information on our actual political tablecloth.
Old Power is national power. New power is coperate power. Global coperate power can access everyone in the world without care of an nations border.
"You gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power. Then when you get the power, then you get the women," Tony Montana
Yeah a new segment:)
Subscribed
Coulkd you please turn down the volume of the intro and outro. They are way too high.
hard power is the guy with the biggest gun works everytime
soft power is unreliable doesnt work sometimes
smart power the big gun buys you friends who need protection and they come with their own problems
14:00 does he refer to the USSR?
Mitä on Westphalia, jota sinä puhut kellossa 10:45? Vain tiedän ”treatice of westphalia” , mutta tuo oli vuonna 1600-Luvulla?
When I was studying international relations, my paper was on regional powers. I have a problem with the Westphalia system. The US doesn't actually fit the Westphalia definition of a state. The US government does not have absolute control of its territory, There are several states in rebellion at this time, refusing to accept certain Constitutional rules and court rulings that they disagree with, and also refusing to accept election results that they don't like. The main argument, though is that the US government was established as a limited confederation, with component states retaining more sovereignty than is usual, Switzerland being the only other extant example. The US Constitutional 10th Amendment in question is: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
So interesting as usual,you did not add religious power to your list of powers? While all the great religions encourage followers to practise a life that is good, does no harm and act for the general well being of society. It does not always work out that way. It could be that it is a secondary power, having an emotional content it has often been corrupted under the influence of the other powers. Still it is a great and volatile power that is used as a catalyst by other powers to greater or lesser degree. Would you consider religion as part of soft power? My feeling is that when ever religion is mixed in to governance at a high level it is extremely dangerous and a force that cannot be discounted.
Another great lecture. Here in the UK, all power is now concentrated in the hands of a bunch of lunatics known as Stonewall.
🇫🇮5/2022 everything is fine , , ,
millasta voimaa suomi käyttää kansalaisiinsa? Näyttäs äkkiä että pakotetaan lakien avulla kasvamaan tietynlaiseksi tai muuten..
So smart power is pretty much diplomacy in short
Muy bueno. No me queda claro donde queda Rusia en este esquema. Si perdió su status de superpoder...en que quedó? Poder Medio? Pequeño?...o ni existe? (Gracias- Marcel/Uruguyay)
Left as an exercise for the reader 😉
@@bobedgar6647 Creo que eso es evadir lo que pregunto 😉... si Rusia ya no es un "Poder"...¿Qué necesidad de sumarse a la NATO?😄...
@@marcelblanchard3295 I’m sorry, I should have provided context for my reply.
At university, when a professor doesn’t know the answer to some detail question, or even nobody knows the answer, the reply is “left as an exercise to the …”.
So yes, I’m avoiding answering your question because it is not a trivial problem with a Twitter size response. At least IMHO.
One thought though: there’s a saying somewhere, or maybe not, that you should never let the nose of the camel inside your tent. I think the same logic applies here with respect to Russia and NATO.
I have to disagree on the weakness of the state compared to some of the other transnational entities. You can see it in any dictatorial country. The state maintaining coercive power rules over all other entities' powers. Any power those other entities have is only what is allowed by the coercive power. As much as the international rules might try to give personhood to corporations or NGOs, they themselves are not people, but are made up of people, and people generally are weak and fearful things that will do a lot to protect their own life.
how about sick and disturbed power?
UKRAINE’S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM ?
With tears in their eyes
The brave march off
Not knowing who shall return.
With a proud devotion
They brandish their flag
Leaving loved ones to wonder and yearn.
May we all be buried
By all of our children
Is an ancient tribal prayer.
They're so easy to lose
But so hard to forget
Such a burden for a parent to bear.
The trials of war
Will never be forgotten
And all which was lost.
For those rows of bodies
Babies, mothers, sisters and brothers
Make it easy to tally the cost.
Ukraine has survived all attempts to destroy
Knowing the cruelty of war.
We who remain must help keep her free
For those who can march no more!
By Kansas City Poet Tom Zart
Google = Most Published Poet On The Web
Tom’s 1,650 Poems Are Free To Share!
Google = George Bush Tom Zart
I was surprised not to see Britain and France on the list of Medium powers. Both nuclear armed with Blue water navies and top 10 economies....
Mostly cause he included France into the EU.
For UK I don't know why tho
@@Zankyo137 I guess it's cool now to just lump all of 5 Eyes under "United States". Meh.
with all due respect, you are missing the episode about Ukraine itself!
Perhaps this "Smart power" has already been prophesied...please consider: "And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, WHICH HAVE RECEIVED NO KINGDOM AS YET; but receive POWER as kings one hour with the beast" (Revelation 17:12) and "...the fourth kingdom upon earth, which shall be DIVERSE from all kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, and shall tread it down, and break it in pieces" (Daniel 7:23).
Alas Turkey may veto Finland and Sweden's entrance into Nato.
Personally I think soft power is the only really useful type of power. The international community has pretty low appetite these days for tolerating military excursions. You need other ways to achieve your objectives.
The nation state is not at all somewhat olfdashioned, It is the condition for (real) democracy to function, as the famous liberal (in the proper sense) Ralph Dahrendorf, former teacher at the London School of Econmics, famously stated only a few decades ago. And his statement is still accurate, albeit not much loved by the modern elites, who prefer supranational entities in order to rule out democracy whilst always praising democracy. But which kind of democracy do they mean? After all the communist states called themselves democracies, too. I woul also poit to the fact that Professor Stubb is teach in the universit of transnational governmen. This name is showing its programm. He is an internationalist and therefore has his own internationalistic bias.
Power is not permanent ,and Russia is your obsession
Facebook vs Finland... an interesting contrast.
Big tech & big banks are more powerful than a nation with 5 million inhabitants.
@@vinhbao9738 Indeed
To S-Ex: I was in army for 2 years- I like target shooting- I do that a lot and a do it well for years now. I know a lot about modern warfare too. Rockets and aircrafts is something a do like to study. I know, that some cities are destroyed, but Kiev is not Russia showed many times, they could hit any single building inside Kiev from far away-from Siberia for instance. Why is parliament standing and 99% of Kiev? (Because they do not want to destory it)
MOST IMPORTANT: Whatever is going on there, it could have been 100% prevented by USA- It was enough, if USA would have assured Russia, they would not expand via new NATO members...(Russia wants some kind of rights like USA- it means no big military close to their borders- and it makes sence to me. I do not agree, that we do not have to worry about nuclear war.. Russia may strike with a small tactical nuclear warhead for instance in Poland according to USA´s general Clark to make a nuclear warning shot-. Poland can not hit back with any nuke. And Russia knows(believes) , that USA would not hit Russian´s with any nuclear because of mutually assured destruction..! Therefore USA would most likely back off. IMHO Europe does not need USA, since USA is not able to defend itself against Russia´s devastating nuclear arsenal, let alone to defend Europe against it. USA is only rising the probability, that non-nuclear states in Europe or whole Europe will be destroyed with nukes one day- it is all what USA "does" for Europe! USA is playing with lives of civilians in Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic right now, knowing , they would do nothing, if Russia would hit any of those nations with a tactical nuke. Here is the link where USA general Clark talks about this problem : ruclips.net/video/dcgJB_Qf2rg/видео.html
Even if the probabiliy of this event was just 1% , it should be avoided by backing off now..(no guns deliveries, no more NATO expansion! ) I am afraid, that probability of this event is much higher, something like 10% to 30%. Russia is nuclear superpower whether you like it or not. We do not need USA here to provoke them. We can not help to a non NATO country, because we clearly realize, that we are threatening our very existence while doing so! We joined NATO to be safer, not to spark a nuclear war for non NATO country´s sake!!!(And for the sake of fulfilling USA´s greed to expand via new NATO members...) One more point, even if we would have no nuclear war here soon, once Finland would become a member, or even Ukraine, than again we would have more likely nuclear war then before this new NATO enlargement. Russia would deploy more rockets with nukes closer to NATO, USA probably too, than even some kind of accident may trigger such an event far more easily. You get much less reaction time for evaluating radar screens- to find out and look for possible errors... (All that for endless USA´s greed to expand and dominate the world) Results for Europe? Possible nuclear destruction, or at least much much higher levels of nuclear danger than ever before. Another result for Europe: economical war with Russia causing horrible inflation.... USA is just making money from this all- selling guns to Europe, expensive gas. We have milions of refugees from Ukraine in Europe to look after them for free.... while USA officially accepted just 12 (!!!) of them , yeas just 12 Ukrainiens... USA is disaster for Europe, not Russia... Russia was able and ready to sell as cheap raw materials ! NOT SO USA. IMHO Russia would never ever attack Ukraine, if NATO(understand USA) would not expand so much closer to Russia.
First you get the money,
Then you get the power,
Then you get the women.
Only if you are ugly. However, if you are good looking you always get the women.
@@katuiran I'll leave you to determine the merits of Al Pacino's appearance.
@@davemoore2972 one of my favorite actors. If you don’t have good looks be an expert in your craft and you will get the women.
Sparta Vs. Athens, Carthage Vs. Rome, etc. Unlimited Struggle/War throughout Human History, which IS founded on WAR!
the UK also has austin powers!
So it's all about power game ,eukrine war is also about power
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Thank you for the interesting view on power. It seems to me, your explanations fit well only with the US, the EU and European countries, Russia and China - and the explanations align with their policies and capabilities. But what about Arab world, for instance. They only have lucrative resources, and don't have any power except the views on Islamic unity. How can they "develop power"? Export Muslim extremism? How people in Africa should view themselves to stop being a pawn in international affairs?
Extremism produces isolation, e.g. Iran, and the loss of real power-hard, soft and smart. Power is the ability to engage with the world and influence its direction. Russia through its war in Ukraine has shown its only power is suicide and has become irrelevant to the rest of the world. Now it’s only value is to force the world economies into decarbonization quicker than planned two months ago.
The Arabs have regional power battles going on, it's the Gulf Arab vs Iran.
They have been exporting extremism and had influence in world events.
Africans have problems of division, small European countries were also pawns in international affairs but now pool their weight to gain an economic and regulatory power in the European Union. Yet that is limited, power is affected by population, economy and cohesion.
I suspect that regional alliances (by continent for example) will be a great tool, especially for African states.
The EU is a prime example of this.
@@JamesC785, will Arabs be allowed to form a regional alliance? Would you be ok with all-arabian Caliphate? Would the US be ok with it? Because, I don't think they would, and not only because every country wants to retain its power. An 'EU' of the Arabic states is unimaginable
@@s.m.7018, Russia and the Ukraine are Europe, and I claim that Europe's experience is not applicable. The reason I mentioned Islamist extremism is that it appears to be the only way to "engage with the world and influence its direction". No other advice for an aspiring young Arab man who plans to become a new president of his Arab / African country - comes in mind
You can make all the theories you want. There is no excuse for war, end of!
The planet needs peace and harmony.
Next there will be wars over who owns what planet in space, instead of working together .
What about us, the powerless? :-)
Is there even one eminent speaker in America who could present like this? Does Finland need any elderly immigrants?
a company cannot have power that is not backed by a state facebook is powerful but Finland can shut it down in Finland.
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Please share with Putin he would benefit from this topic
you know what doesn't have a lot of power? my VW van.
The only real power is the ability to undermine and destroy the zeitgeist by understanding its unbearable contradictions: to shift the paradigms in accordance with the ignored and despised reality...
Let’s see how Russia will react to the realization that they are loosing all their powers.
It can go bad, very bad…
First is your best friends and partnerships lately will be your enemies and fighting. We need to learn from Iron, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Peoples thinking democracy is always free country, freedom every things perfect no fight. But actually a lot of fighting, killing and racism in the democracy country.
Haven’t you forgotten true power? (The absence of powerlessness of anyone)
(Unfortunately not achievable in a trivided antisocial „society „ of slaves, slave-guards, and slave-owners, where no one is truly free of slavery and slave-markets/aka „free“market economy, which prevents us of becoming truly human.
To overcome this, another conception is needed, and personal development of anyone towards its genetic potential
There are not simple solutions for complex problems.
To understand big problems adequate , it is inevitable to understand problems and solutions on cellular level.
If we fail in the small, we fail in the big at least in square .
We cannot manipulate our cells with patented drugs, without our cells show us the middle finger, and we cannot manipulate our enemies, without they show us their arsenals.
Mirror mirror on the wall.. what leads to victory for us all?
Mirror mirror in your brain.. what leads to friendship?.. what to pain?
Don’t fight against the mistakes, be there for what is missing (Pierre Teilard deChardin)