Putin’s war: scenarios for the short, medium & long term - Geopolitics with Alex Stubb
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- In this third episode, Alex Stubb looks at what might happen next in the war in Ukraine. While predicting the future is tricky business, Alex describes possible scenarios for the short, medium and long term. He invites viewers to share their thoughts in the comments section.
“Geopolitics with Alex” is a sequel to "Understanding the War" which ran from March to July 2022.
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We can't let war criminals get away with their crimes. I find the idea of letting murderers, torturers, and rapists go free extremely upsetting. Denying the victims of these crimes closure through justice will do damage not only in the short term.
I totally agree ,
But how do you do it from a practical viewpoint? How do you arrest Putin?
You're not focused on justice. We have to put war criminals to task to prevent other people from following their footsteps. No amount of vengeance will bring closure to their victims. True justice means making sure this doesn't happen again.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Making sure Ukraine wins this war will do the job. It might well condemn him to the death penalty.
Upsetting or not, the side that has power and control decides who gets prosecuted. Political power comes from the point of a gun. You need to have good institutions, and the people with the guns need to obey their pronouncements.
If it continues like this Ukraine is going to run out of flags!
Alex, I so hope and pray that the western response to Putin's adventure is headed by people as rational and cool headed as you.
Me too
We can heal when Putin is dead. Until then, keep the HIMARS flying.
Agree. DO NOT CAPITULATE.
we are talking about the Finlandization of russia!
Alex, you are a gift. I think of myself as mostly rational but it is hard to look at the damage wrought by the invasion in Ukraine dispassionately and not want to push for justice. I recognize the need for a reconciliation at the end of the day trumps justice and especially trumps revenge. It is a hard pill to swallow that people who have backed Putin may never face any level of court if we are to get to a multi-generational reconciliation but thinking long term is what I think we need to do. #1 Ukraine needs to have security. #2 the people taken by Russia need to be given full freedoms and perhaps dual passports. #3 some level of autonomy from Russia and Ukraine should be possible if desired by those in the Donbas and in Crimea. #4 a major truth and reconciliation process should be carried out that can lay out all the evidence of illegal actions carried out by all sides since 2014. #5 a percentage of energy exports from Russia should be paid by downstream users into a rebuilding fund for all areas of the conflict.
1. Short term: Negotiations in a war situation is based on your position of strength, how well are you doing on the battlefield. Given their current success on the battlefield such a solution is not on the table at the moment. However, things may change, so to me this is a possible solution but also an unlikely solution at the moment.
2. Medium term: I believe that including Ukraine into NATO is unavoidable, Ukraine will never have real peace before that happens. How and when is another matter all together. I also belive that in the medium to long term Ukraine could become the new Germany, thinking about Germany's recovery after WWII and the economic powerhouse it has become. Ukraine can do the same. Russia: A regime change is needed, and what will follow afterwards is impossible to have a formed opinion on at this time. What is clear to me however, is that sanctions will remain for a long time even after a regime change, and Russia will suffer from this for decades to come. What you say about unrest and breakaway republics is interesting, and may happen, but I don't really see the signs of this as clearly as you, but you have better sources than me no doubt.
3. Long term: To humiliate Russia doesn't really sound like a good idea, but at the same time Russia will not be trusted by the international community unless it is humiliated. Again, Germany. Had Germany not been humiliated the way it was after WWII, it would never have recovered as quickly as it did and become the thriving democracy it is today. Is this a viable solution in a reallpolitical sense? I highly doubt it, but it would most likely be the best solution looking decades down the road. On the new world order, I believe it will change the way you have outlined.
Finally: Thank you for making these videos, your knowledge and insights are extremely valuable. Thank you for sharing them.
Was Germany humiliated after WWII? I think that the winners of WWI realized that humiliation is not the way to do it, so instead they rebuilt West Germany with the Marshall Plan.
@@jonasnorberg262 True, but therein lies the point. Every trace of Nazi Germany was removed, a new constitution was made, and the country was rebuilt using the Marshall Plan as a democracy, not an autocracy. The humiliation was to remove any traces of the old Nazi government, bring the leaders to justice in international courts, and rebuild what was then West Germany as a democracy. It was not about humiliating the average citizens of Germany, it was about removing the old Fascist regime and replacing it with a democracy.
Edit: If any part of the Nazi government had been left in place, West Germany would be trusted less than the Soviet Union at the time, and its development would be similar to that of East Germany at best, but probably even worse..
@@jonasnorberg262 I agree. After WWII Germanys defeat was much more obvious, especially to the German population, compared to after WWI. Humiliation however was far less and not really intended by the allies. The reason imho was that Germany was needed to establish a functioning peace order in Europe. An we might face a similar situation here, since a functional European peace order without a stable( and preferably democratic) Russia is hard to imagine.
@@jonasnorberg262 ... the German defeat in WWII was so complete that Germany went beyond humiliation to shame. It is hard to see Russia coming to terms with it's military adventures under Putin in the same way. Russia has not come to terms with the injustices of the Soviet Union and with Stalinism.
On point 1 - agreed,
on point 2 NATO membership or not, I suspect the conditions of the peace will be an absolute guarantee of support that will be akin to NATO membership (essentially enabling a bypass of nato nations who are inclined to veto). Ukraine, along with Poland, will take the German position- I say this because Poland has the infrastructure and is viewed by the US as a reliable ally (unlike Germany) and Ukraine will be rebuild for decades. Regarding breakaways Kazakhstan got the same speech ukraine did about not having a right to exist and they are not happy. They are definitely making steps to increase ties to Europe. There are also territories that China sees as rightfully theirs.
On point 3 - this is largely up to Russia, if they go through regime change they can minimise their humiliation- this will still have consequences (I think the war crimes will be non negotiable though, so Putin will have to go) but not as dire as they could be. However Russia will not be trusted by Europe, no matter what, so their ability to recover will depend on China and other nations. This will lead to a sort vassal star for Russia - which incidentally is actually why China really wants - a dependent nation who will be forced to share its resources (which China doesn’t have) at a low cost.
Thank you Prof. As always, very insightful
Absolutely - talking about nuclear actions so lightly as it is being done today, is absolute terrifying for a cold-war veteran like me (meaning old)...
Unfortunately not only talking. Putin knows that after saying it several times he needs to do that to be taken seriously. And this moment is coming.
Russia launches nuke, give them a massive EMP attack. Send them back to the stone age.
Thank you for your analysis Sir! Ukraine should restore its territorial integrity within its 1991 boarders and then join both NATO and EU where it belongs.
Easier said than done when the other side has nuclear friggin weapons bro..^^
Ukraine is a dump, the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe.
The idea that is "belongs" in the EU with openly Nazi brigades integrated into its military, an illegal coup only 8 years ago and a leader who has mysterious well documented millions and mansions offshore is hilarious.
@@rgtwergf the only question with the nukes is: will he use them now or later. Russia is now what it has been for about 400 years.
It will happen, after the war and the eventual collapse of Putin's regime. Actually, I believe that some parts of European Russia will join the EU and NATO after the dissolution of the Russian Federation, which also will take place after the end of Putin's rule. Everybody -except the oligarchs and the elite in Moscow- will benefit from the break up of Russia: The US, China, Japan, which claims the Islands of Kurils and Shahaline, the EU, and mostly the inhabitants of Russia. The new countries will become westernised -at least those close to Europe- and the people will live a better life in the modern world. They are sick and tired of living in poverty, in a prison state either it is tsarist, soviet, or Putinist, and being fed by their corrupt, inept, kleptocratic, mafia-like government with......ideals, glory, parades, anachronistic Christian Orthodoxy, outdated traditionalism, westphobia, outlandish state propaganda, and imperial fanfare. People want to work, have a decent income, live a regular life like the people in the west, and afford to have their fridge full...I was in Russia a few years ago and I realised that if someone travels outside of Moscow or St-Petersburg towards Bolga and beyond, she or he will be shocked by the poverty and the conditions of living. In some areas, the people did not seem to have any connection to Russia.....
@@rgtwergf Thanks for bringing that up, part of the peace settlement should be total nuclear disarmament of Russia, loss of permanent Security Council seat and loss of Security Council veto.
Some want peace, some want justice. I want the leaders of the world to fear making decisions against the best interest of their citizens.
What a wonderful and insightful reply - Thank You for that!
I think that long term peace is a product of justice
How do you get world leaders to fear their own people? Russia and China have done the opposite. Not to mention the various despots that still persist.
@@davidelliott5843 In a democracy
As to a future West, globalisation version 2.0 between like minded states with shared values and real teeth to rain in members who breach the rules would be a good start. Others with different values, like China, can go their own way which must include isolation from Western markets and in particular Western technology.
thats one of many possible outcomes, i guess
Except China and other totalitarian regimes like fascist Russia does not want to sit still. They want MORE land, more influence, more power. Therefore, I have zero faith in your divided world hypothesis. Besides, there are a number of very important challenges where we need to collaborate in order to solve: climate change and available, carbon free sustainable power. Even though nuclear power has many negative aspects, will in some form or shape have to replace fossil fuels. I seriously doubt that wind and solar will cover an increasingly power hungry world.
The idea that trade bring peace is incorrect and a fundamental flaw of free trade. Trade and security need to be tied together.
@@Mr.Monta77
World-Polarisation will happen..
The Western spheres is where 99% innovation take place and with Western Capitol.
CCP China and Orc Russia either copy and paste their offerings from the West or buy from the West.
CCP CHINA are digilantly watching this Ukrainian Russo War and they know what the future holds for them.
Both can isolate themselves and fall further behind in the process.
Facts.. both need Western revenues as we can afford it.
The rest (South America, Africa, Asian etc Nations) will be lower returns period.
There should be a requirement that membership of the UN Security Council, and other bodies like the Human Rights Council, should only be open to countries with democratic governments that respect human rights.
Mr. Stubb, congratulations for your series of classes. Interesting the ‘Tech industry’ approach about making the future. I’d would also like to offer another approach: the ‘enterprise’ one, trying to emulate a company’s environment. If I work for an industry that has low entrance barriers, I should know that my business is compromised, my work is vulnerable. If my business involves skills that anyone can provide, maybe I should look for another job, since there will be always someone able to do it cheaper, carelessy, with illegal but ‘efficient’ practices. What is the ‘cost’ or the ‘entrance barrier’ for a country to be part of international ‘enterprises’ such as the UN, IMF, WTO? What do they have to comply with? Are they following the ‘business’ codes? Are they respecting their ‘employees’ (citzens)? Are they cutting corners? Are they following ‘good practices’, the same ones agreed when they start of the ‘enterprise’? I see that ‘companies’ (countries, rogue states) bluntly disrespect even the minimum conditions of human civility and lie to their teeth, break contracts and still continue as respected part of the ‘club’. The bad actors can get away with their practices and still continue having a seat on the ‘board of directors’. There is no way to work, sorry. While we don’t have clear entrance barriers, punishments like expelling these bad actors, things will continue to get worse on the international context of nations. Thank you for your lectures and cheers from Brazil.
You mean like China?
@@davidelliott5843 Exactly what came to mind whilst reading this. Many people are predicting Chinas economic decline with glee.. However the situation around their human rights record etc was not in a good place 30 odd years ago when the west decided to move much of its manufacturing to China,, in short business profit trumped any ideals. China now has huge global power and with 1.4 billion people it should have greater resources from a humanitarian point of view. I guess what I am saying is we are hypocrites when money is involved so we can hardly preach ideals to the rest of the world.
Hyvä jakso! 🙏🏼
Love listening to your lectures!
It is always a pleasure listening to Alex.
I hate this narcissist.
I love the fact you manage to put out a sober vt that are also reassuring, at the right time. you spidy senses must have been tingling with the current state of affairs.
Great content. STUBBSCRIBED!
Thank you for comments. Working through them.
Thank you very much for this thought provoking episode. Fully agree that we need to start thinking about the future and what it may look like. I read The Upheaval by Jared Diamond just as the full scale russian invasion started in February. In the book, there are 12+ factors that are related/influence the outcomes of national crises. I have been following this war through the lens of these factors and am cautiously optimistic that there are very good reasons to believe there will be a constructive short, medium and long term future for Ukraine, Europe and collective West.
I don't support that I would like those wicked murderer to brought to justis they must pay for their crime
After WW2, the Nazi German leaders were prosecuted at Nuremberg. However, this was little more than a show trial and most of the murderers escaped or were simply ignored.
There is no way a similar trial will happen against Russia. There is no international body capable of making it happen. UN is useless and the international court in Hague is part of UN.
I understand Elon's concern for peace on earth! But do not bow to the hegemon who is destroying the small Ukrainian nation!
If Russia and its people are to be “rehabilitated” and “allowed” to participate as a normal nation, it seems to me that the Russians themselves need take more responsibility and have a greater involvement in the running of their own country. A system that demands free and fair elections and a free press is the absolute minimum condition.
This cannot be allowed. Russia will always go down this path, because it is fundamentally a multiethnic empire ruled by Muscovytes. Finno-Ugric, Turkic, Mongolic and Caucasian peoples must have their own states.
@@finnicpatriot6399 Complete breakup of Russia?
@@TheBandit7613 Yes.
@@finnicpatriot6399 I think you're right.
Always enjoy your discussions. Highly intellectual conversation. Thanks
Kiitos
I agree with you on One thing that is The situation is extremely complicated and no Good outcome is insight.
Holy crap. It’s the former PM of Finland and he has a RUclips channel.
If you see this, it’s a huge honour to learn from you sir!
Much love from Canada 🇨🇦
He ought to be invited by the Taiwanese Authority to Speak His Piece .....Off be with you..."FORMER" PM of Finland.....
Very intelligent analysis, thank you
Brilliant analysis
Zelensky set a whole new standard for opposition to tyranny and invasion.
When madmen, mullahs or maniacs strike, typically the leader of the moment grabs a suitcase full of cash, his wife, mistress and the nation's treasures, yelling over his shoulder for the army to "fight on", while he flees. The nation collapses because there's no incentive or will to resist.
The Shah of Iran, leader of Afghanistan and countless others show you "why" they were attacked/overthrown. Not Ukraine; "I need ammo, not a ride". To this day, that still makes me proud. And set the tone for the "little guys" in the future.
The people fought with "what they had". Russia sent a well-equipped, professional military juggernaut against a people essentially armed with "hope". And Russia was thwarted. The hopeful became powerful with each passing day.
Ukraine is not going to get "everything" they want from prevailing on the battlefield or having a superior position at the negotiation table. It's called negotiation for a reason. So, there must be give and take. No Justice, No Peace, immediately comes to mind. But let's keep in mind, Ukraine is not the final arbiter of their fate, regardless of their untold suffering. Ukraine would have none of this bounty without their benefactors. Those masters want life to return to normal at their homes/nations as well.
For the first time, at least that I can recall, a nation stood on its own and fought for itself against the marauding invaders, without the west having to put boots on the ground. This is a precedent that will be repeated and is a new world order of its own making.
Some are going to think that the changes are too quick and too soon to take effect. I disagree. Volcanoes can create islands or new mountains rapidly. This eruption has started a movement and epochs of justice are rarely stifled.
Putin is in more trouble at home than many care to articulate out loud. Notice that Putin didn't close his borders as his mobilized army..."left"? It's because Putin knew that those men of fighting age he so desperately needs, would have fought "him", rather than go to a foreign land to fight for "his" vision of vain glory.
If you're still with me, I'm nearing my close. Ukraine will be rebuilt with little or no problem. Power & money hate a vacuum. There's a lot of opportunity for companies and agencies of every type and stripe to get in on the ground floor of a new nation that's desperate for their capital and entrepreneurship.
Ukraine still has a corruption issue, but what nation doesn't? Including ours. [USA]
Ukraine did not fight off Russia "on their own" and there are US advisors on the ground. How do you think the Ukraine military knows to drop a US HIMARS on top of a Russian command's head? Or an ammo dump? Or a specifically targeted cell phone? US satellites. They see thru walls, thru dark and rain. Facial recognition. In HD, real time. See a target, enter coordinates, press button, BOOM!
The US (and partners) have quietly been training the Ukraine military for several years.
This isn't Afghanistan where combatants take a shot and duck into a mosque.
This is what the US military does well, fight a conventional army on a battlefield.
US satellites, precision US munitions, US trained soldiers...
Are you starting to catch on yet?
Alex, something very much like you suggest is necessary. No matter how unpalatable. The alternative is an utter catastrophe.
So well said.
Great stream Alex Some great points . I don’t think Russia would give up all those territories tho to avoid prosecution. We couldn’t be that lucky
Great segment, Professor! My suggestion is a multilateral treaty organisation for the imposition of sanctions, dependent upon rulings of international judicial bodies such as the ICJ. John Mearsheimer's thesis is based upon the fact that there is "no higher authority" that you can appeal to. But, like bitcoin and other distributed arrangements, you could substitute a higher authority with a network effect. The idea is that a multilateral treaty organisation is setup, which willing (ie civilised) counties can voluntarily sign up to. The treaty obligation would require the imposition of sanctions by all members in a pre-determined coordinated manner upon any country that was held to be in breach certain international law norms by certain judicial bodies. The multilateral organisation would be like the police force executing a warrant from a judicial body in a domestic court setting. We had the ICJ issue an interim measures order against Russia, which Russia vetoed. The US and EU then led an ad hoc process to impose powerful sanctions on Russia, the magnitude of which I'm sure Russia was not fully expecting. These sanctions are criticised because they have weaponized the US dollar and removed its political neutrality, as well as being ad hoc, after the event steps, which therefore lacked deterrent effect ex ante. However, these problems could be overcome with such a multilateral body. A country like Russia would know what was coming to it, should it breach the UN Charter in advance - there would be a determent effect - and therefore they would not breach. Furthermore, a country like Russia could not spew out ridiculous interpretations of international law, because of the authority of the international judicial organ. Such a process would give proper teeth to international law. While state sovereignty would be preserved, because any one country could disclaim its treaty obligations to the international body, the network effect would reduce the chance of all civilized countries disclaiming at once, and thus deterrence would be preserved. Finally, the risk of countries strongly disagreeing with the judicial body would prevent such bodies becoming too activist in their interpretation of international law.
most interesting perspectives.
Great content 👍👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
I believe your audience would benefit from learning your thoughts on Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. In my view, it is beyond belief that such a person would actively advocate for the use of nuclear weapons. Thank you.
He doesn't dictate Russian policies, he is just the leader of a backwards region who is only in power due to Russian government subsidies
I'm in no way a global political expert, military expert, or anything at all relating to the situation, but I think this guy is (or at least should be seen as) barely more than a teenage blogger in his parents' basement. He has no access whatsoever to the nuclear codes. He's the Chechen version of a MAGA talking head trying to impress people with how tough he is. We can and should ignore him completely.
@@banditski He has little influence on nuclear weapons but he still can do many bad things including what his soldiers are doing in Ukraine, murder of Boris Nemcov, etc.
He already advocated it, so there is no need to believe it: it's a fact.
Tactical nuclear weapons are going to be used again. The US dropped two of them on undefended city centers full of civilians, and the damage was immense, but fairly contained. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were rebuilt, including the central areas where the American nukes were dropped. People did not stop living there. It's not a nuclear wasteland.
So if the Russians deploy small nuclear weapons on ostensibly military targets, I think that the response from non-European countries may be surprisingly muted. Not as muted as the response to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, but still ...
@@banditski That's how to make thugs very very angry, and that's not good for anyone.
Thank you so much for another well thought out lecture. From New Zealand it is hard to put ourselves in a realistic 'picture' of what is happening and outcomes. This is where your lectures are so valuable. We find it hard to present the modern Kiwi as part of the "West". Our alliances would say otherwise. We are tied to 5 eyes and other pacts that place us politically if not geographically. I hate the political disorder and you are correct to frame it this way. Post war doctrines born of alliances are a fraught feild in which to build a peace. It recognizes "sides", not people. One of pres Zelensky's major problems in short and medium term vision is maintaining integrity in the path that brought Ukraine to the point of negotiation or a settlement defined as peace because of the numbers hurt and political fatigue. I do not consider the cost to Russia in these thoughts. My thoughts on the long term view are, that as with Germany after the second world War, Russia must be similarly neutered so that this can never happen again. So I think the war must end in a position of dominance. I think if Putin falls, with that we may well be in the position of the devil we know as I fear the person or people that take over will be hard arses. We fear the nuclear threat. You may remember our position on nukes. I paddled my canoe in front of a Yank warship. I think in a political sense it must be demonstrated that Europe and the world are quickly building a blast fence on Russia's borders so that the harm from any such blast will reflect the catastrophe as self harm.
Thanks again.
Phil.
Dear, I want to remind you. Remember, Russian, this is a horse of the feudal era, it can be beaten and kicked for a long time, so they think that everyone is afraid of him? In fact, you have to look him straight in the eye and kick him in the teeth! By nature they are, as I said, slaves, their souls are soft! Putin has children and we have to hope he loves them? There will be no nuclear disaster!
More than a Versailles treaty, what I am afraid of is some version of the Dochstosslegende. In any case, many thanks for these lectures.
Wounded pride is a highly overrated pretext. The real cause of both WW2 and Putin's replay is simple opportunism by a leader with a high tolerance for risk, started when he sees actual domestic insecurity and perceives weakness both in the military of a smaller opponent and the commitment of its allies, after having verified this assessment via a successful trial campaign (Czechoslovakia and Crimea), then doubling down into a world war, and ended only when as opportunistic successor adopts the same strategy.
Great introspection , professor,
You are indeed wise!!!
First thanks for your continuing excellent videos😊
Short term: Peace is a must, at almost all cost, but Putin must go. Medium term: not really sure, maybe reestablish trade and supply networks and make sure food is being distributed. Long term: A more inclusive international system in the long run is necessary.
This is fast becoming one of my favorite places to learn now. As a student of International Relations, this has all come alive for me in the last 6 months under unfortunate conditions. How will the new world order be formed? I think the US has lost interest and even Anders Fogh Rasmussen your neighbor (I was posted for 3 years in Denmark) has said the US is the only country that can lead us out. Yet, I see less interest in our leaders to do so in the future. I do see leadership now in a time of crisis in this situation. I believe the world will be lead more regionally as the US becomes more isolationist. I also fear a unstable Russia as this is a threat to world safety. I am curious if you agree with this and how will Europe step up to fill it's role in European Stability.
Prof u r insightful.
Planting seeds...🙂🍃
Alex, I have enjoyed your mini lectures, and the clarity of delivery of your ideas. Regarding the short term resolution where Ukraine regains its territory and abstains from ICC case against Russia, that would be defined as Russia losing the war. I can’t see how Putin, whose (it seems) idea it was to start the Conflict could accept these terms and survive in power. Hardliners like Raman Kadyrov would likely continue on regardless , and would all need to be ‘purged’ to eliminate the possibility of worse replacements. Regarding your second point, on the west and the rest, I agree that change is needed and the colonialist exploitation narrative breeds resentment of the west in ‘the rest’. Perhaps restructuring the UN, particularly the UNSC to include African , Latin American and Asian representation?
How about disbanding it altogether?
Very true.
I somehow see outcomes that derive from the maximalist approach of Russia and their ability or inability to sustain this stance. I am expecting on the short term Ukraine getting closer to their February 24 borders, but war going towards a stalemate as winter and spring come. On the medium term I am expecting Russia rising the stakes, like using nuclear weapons in a limited way as a demonstration of force. I am expecting as an immediate and logical response to have Ukraine rearmed with nuclear weapons (in my opinion the only deterrence that might work to contain Russia). I am expecting on the long term as the conflict ends up in some kind of Korean resolution ( a DMZ around more or less the 24 February borders), Ukraine being able to join EU (not NATO) and Russia converging to an even more totalitarian state while will try to re-arm and deprive Europe from energy. I am not expecting a regime change in Russia or a return to the "Globalized world" or even "normalization" with the "Collective West" . the fracture is too strong and the Moscow elites too afraid of change. They will continue to live in luxury while the masses will pay most of the price of the isolation. "The multipolar" world will be a new Iron Curtain built at the CSTO borders. What I hope is to see most of Ukraine outside this curtain.
Most realistic comment in my opinion so far. Whole situation gives me feeling that we have not heard a speech from Moskovia about "Totales Krieg " yet.
Very possible.. with one exception.. Ukraine has to be in NATO. Europe can't go through this again. Russia has to be ring fenced. Let it go in the China direction if it wants to continue it's greater or new Russia nonsense.
My best ending, which could even as an outside possibility happen.. Putin overthrown or retires 'due to ill health' and his inner circle all resign. And some wind of change and resolution hinted at by a new Russian government!
Realistically? I don't see a way out.. except a Russia so depleted in military capability and coordination and in economic collapse that no negotiations with Russia would be even necessary.. that the army just stops fighting, abandons the field and the soldiers all head for home themselves. But that's not likely to happen. However the big question I have in my head is that if it came anywhere close to that situation... Would Putin choose to unleash a nuclear attack? A massive nuclear attack on his ' enemies' in the West? Or a one off in Ukraine? The latter would it or not lead to a ' We have now to really destroy Russia as a nuclear risk before Russia destroys us' response? Clearly the USA has some response planned whether it has shared that with the rest of the allies or NATO members I don't know.. Biden has stated that the consequences would be .. did he use the word ' catastrophic' ? What does he mean by that? I assume this response would have to be so great that Russia would not have time or ability to send a second nuclear weapon(s) anywhere else?
I don't believe that Russia can win this war conventionally in Ukraine but that Ukraine could win it against Russia. Therein to me lies the great danger. Putin will not ever accept defeat - so what are Putin's options in that scenario? Nothing I can see bar using Nuclear weapons. So how are we ever going to end this? Just as Hitler fought to the bitter end, so will Putin I believe even in total defeat. However I look at it I always come back to the only possiblity for a final end and that is an end to the present Russia as we know it.
Agree with your peace transaction
Your idea for this transactional peace is an interesting one, but I think it's a scenario that would be hard for a lot of people to live with, especially the Ukrainian civilians who have suffered proven and verifiable war crimes. If, in some perfect world, Russia is soon governed by someone with empathy, I could see a situation where Russia as a country allows individuals to be tried in international courts while the state itself is not tried, and also Ukraine gets all of its land back. But I see that outcome as unlikely. I think the other point against the idea of not bringing Russia to international court is that one of the key things Ukraine would want from that process is reparations for reconstruction, which goes to your medium term point. Someone is going to have to pay for Ukraine to rebuild itself, and as much as the West supports Ukraine in their efforts now, I doubt there would be much appetite to foot the bill for reconstruction as well. So from an emotional position, I don't think letting war criminals get away with it would be acceptable to the vast majority of people and it wouldn't help the reintegration of Russia back into the international community in the future either. From a more practical position, someone has to pay for reconstruction and it shouldn't be anyone except for those responsible for causing the destruction in the first place.
I don't see it happening without a regime change and even if Russia wanted to pay they are going to be busy rebuilding their economy for the next 20 years (from what I've heard).
As part of an international peace agreement, Russia's elite must be forced to sell all the yachts and mansions to pay for reconstruction of Ukraine 🇺🇦. And their propaganda machine must be dismantled as a condition of peace, as well.as monitored by AI going forward. A great impassable wall must be built between Russia, Ukraine, the Baltics and Finland so that free roaming Russians are kept out unless they pass muster to deserve access for a specific reason...
Hello Mr.Stubb. As a citizen of former Czechoslovakia I wonder, is there (in your opinion), any symbolism in the date 30th of September, chosen by Putin for formal ceremony of annexation of those Ukrainian regions? As mentioned in Jake´s video? ruclips.net/video/MzuENcQb5_Q/видео.html
Similarity is just too odd to be ovelooked.
The 30th was his 70th birthday and he wanted to blow out democracy!
Thank you for an excellent lecture. On the question as to a settlement involving Russia withdrawing from all territory (including Crimea) against an undertaking that it will not be prosecuted, there is the difficulty that, while the first leg of this can be the subject of agreement, the second is in the domain of criminal law. I doubt if it can be the subject of agreement, even among states. It is tantamount to an agreement that one will not be prosecuted for murder. For example, if a murderer is in hiding and cannot be found, would an agreement not to prosecute the murderer if he/she gives himself/herself up, be enforceable? The answer would surely be not? The effect would be contrary to public policy which surely requires that the sanction for a crime is not something tradable. In this case it would reduce the sanction for war crimes to something that is a bargaining tool.
Furthermore, the effect of such an agreement would be to diminish the deterrent effect of punishment for crimes. States and soldiers would in future be far more likely to commit war crimes than if they are seen to be visited with the most severe sanction.
First proposal: 4 or 5 territories?
🧐🇺🇦🧐
Should Ukraine settle for having its territory back and not pursue war crimes against Russia?
If your neighbour comes in to your home , brakes the arms and legs of your wife and children, then steals your life’s savings you had stashed under the bed, you wouldn’t just accept that money back and move on. You would absolutely want FULL COMPENSATION AND JUSTICE for the suffering of your family.
So Ukraine shouldn’t settle for just it’s land back. It’s morally obliged to seek justice for the suffering of its people.
Another thing I haven’t heard being discussed is- how do you win a war against a country that has “weapons of mad destruction “. And once you have won that war , what happens to these weapons? What happens to the collective states within the defeated country? Has anyone been spending time discussing and planning for such an event in the case of the Russian Federation?
I pray that the west keeps up it's support throughout the winter. The experienced, well equipped Ukrainian soldiers will care less about the cold than the russian conscripts that Putin is shipping in. We might see a winter of mutinys??
These videos are great, thank you Alex!
First thank you sir for sharing your thoughts and helping us to understand the complexity of geopolitics.
As per your hypothesis, i do agree with your version of Short,medium & long term version of world order but I'd also like to add that in the medium to long term we would have a multipolar world unlike the bipolar during cold war. At one hand we will have the west, the east or autocratic leadership and we might have the some rogue nations like Turkey, Israel or N. korea. So while redefining international institutions, the policy or foundations would be difficult to establish for multiple versions of global policy that satisfies everyone.
I feel like Yeltsin in the western mind has a very skewed reputation. He wasn't soft, he paved the way for Putin by crippling Russia's democracy. I hadn't realized this until just recently, but was again reminded when you talked about the hard-liners following instability and mentioned Yeltsin
yeltsin basically put Putin in the president's seat without an election, and the first thing putin did as president was give Yeltsin immunity from prosecution. they are both from the same criminal gang. Yeltsin can go fuck himself down in hell where I hope he is
I am responding to your first suggestion regarding a transactional settlement whereby Ukraine regains all its territory in return for not prosecuting Russia in international court for war crimes: If the first occurs, that Ukraine is able to regain all its territory, it seems pretty certain that Putin's regime would crumble completely. In that case, I wonder what government would represent Russia in these negotiations? If Putin's regime crumbles, it would take with it all those whom Putin has put into power. I think that we would be looking at a failed state situation, with a real contest for power between different factions/groups. There are many who would like to see the installation of some kind of real democracy, but there are others out there who would, perhaps, be more dangerous than Putin. In any event, I think it would be a very unstable situation. I have no idea how the rest of the world might respond to such instability, but I'm sure both NATO and China are thinking about the possible evolution of this kind of scenario. I don't know what power Russia might have to negotiate anything in these circumstances, and if a much more liberal coalition government comes together, it might not even object to the individuals responsible being prosecuted for war crimes, as this war is as much a crime against the Russian people themselves, as it is against Ukraine. Another scenario that might develop is the breaking away from the Russian federation of territories occupied primarily by minorities, in which case the question arises - what "Russia" are we talking about regarding any kind of international negotiations? If Russia is going to lose as badly as you hypothesize here, then it seems to me that the cookie really crumbles, and I don't think any of us can guess what happens then.
Alex, I love your lectures. I just wish more politicians would listen to you.
Short term; More weapons will go into Ukraïne, more Himars, maybe some NASAMs, ATACAMs and Patriots; Russia will continue to loose ground, and their morale will collapse. This could explode if a field commander with tactical nuclear tools gets desperate.
Medium term; Russia wil either implode on itself (It's demografics are utterly unsustainable, and the recent exodus made it worse); or explode outwards and use strategic nuclear bombs. The average Russian will start to see the cost of political apathy; and this will evetually lead to regime-change. This could be with a bang or slowly.
Longer term; Europe will have to help Russia regain it's footing. Russia is a proud and good country; it should be restored to that. Only together in peace will there be progress in the long term.
If Russia launches a nuke, the response should be to send Russia back to the stone age with a massive EMP attack. Cook every electrical circuit in Russia.
Return of territories for non-prosecution? What would happen to the sanctions in such a case?
What do you think about what Noam Chomsky has been saying about the war?
Alex, these are a terribly difficult series of questions and, as you noted, they have a lot of moving parts, but this is my attempt to answer them. In the short term, I do not see how Putin, having annexed the territories, can return them in any kind of deal. In effect, he has basically built a wall behind him and his successors, so for the Russians the only way is to push forward or bust. And if Russian history has taught us anything, it is that very often a regime we thought was bad in the Kremlin is followed by an even worse one. So I'm not too excited about regime change.
On the other hand, I don't think he's bluffing with his threats. For him, as you pointed out, the current situation in Ukraine is existential both for him as an individual and for Russia as a country. In fact, there are some reports that at least one nuclear submarine has moved overnight some think loaded with the Poseidon torpedo and that the so-called nuclear train is moving forward. If there's a time when a leader might decide to use a nuclear bomb, it's times like this. So the probability of using nuclear weapons is becoming uncomfortably high, and it seems to me that our leaders are playing a very dangerous game of chicken on this issue.
In the medium to long term, assuming Russia indeed loses the war and, more importantly, accepts defeat without taking the rest of the world with them. Honestly, I don't see a way to stop hostilities and return to a more or less peaceful modus vivendi. That is, even if Ukraine is able to completely expel Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, the Russians will view the West with immense hatred and resentment and will continue to seek ways to undermine it by any means necessary. Basically, the West will have a rabid dog on the other side of the fence, in Beijing's pocket, and selling whatever they have in their possession that can boost China in its competition with the US in the Pacific. What it means that the US will have to dedicate a significant portion of it resources to Europe just like it did during the Cold War in order to keep the Russians at bay.
Russians can view us with deep, immense hatred and resentment as much as they want. Just so long as that rabid dog stays on the other side of the fence, that's fine and that doesn't include any of the occupied territory including Crimea. Same goes for China. Putin and Xi need not participate with Free World trade, commerce and technologies. BTW... rabid dogs have dim, fading futures.
I think Russia already is a failed state in that it keeps many of its distant rural regions in poverty and raised on alcoholism. And there is the brain drain of their bright, educated youth fleeing the country, with a low birth rate for workers who can support an increasing elderly population....
Still, the attitude of entitlement, resentment and superiority to modern liberal democracies is a big problem for Russia if they want to benefit from technological cooperation the rest of us represent.
Dear Alex, what about if, at certain point, Russia will propose to keep only Crimea?
Ukraina will not accept, but what about the allies?
Great lecture, as usual!
Paolo
I think it will be untenable to the west and turkey to have Russia in charge of Crimea. Russia has betrayed a 70 year understanding and it will not be trusted with such a valuable access.
At that point Ukraine will propose to keep Vladivostok and the Kremlin (and everything in between).
True peace requires real justice.
Thank you, great lecture and insights as always! I also think Putin is deterred from using nuclear weapons in Ukraine because he considers Ukraine to be Russian to a large extent and belonging to Russia by origin, and he wouldn't want to destroy that.
The compromise you proposed is actually a balanced deal for both sides, but I'm afraid that no party of the conflict is ready to make such compromises. Russia is still too drunk with their perception of power and the Ukrainians are too traumatized and enraged to come to such terms. Thank you for the video, level headed as usual and great food for thought!
Investing done right has changed my perspective on how one can succeed in life. I've been able to clear my debt and go on to have surplus to take care of my family. Working multiple jobs for money isn't the optimal way to attain financial freedom. Unfortunately, we find this out later in life. Great video
'Leadership 101': A keen sense of justice: Without a sense of fairness and justice, no leader can command and retain the respect of his or her followers.
I was very interested in your thoughts on where you think events will end up. In the shorter term I expect Ukraine to win this war with Russia eventually calling for a cease fire and withdrawing from all Ukrainian land. I do not see a peace treaty signed until all Ukrainian citizens are returned, and then there is the question of Sevastopol. I expect that Ukraine will demand that Russia cede Sevastopol. However the medium and long term futures are far harder to predict. I believe that regime change in Russia will happen and there will be a large degree of internal turmoil, with various regions seeking larger degrees of autonomy, and the central Asian republics distancing themselves further from Moscow. I believe that China will actively seek to fill the void that Moscow leaves behind. In fact, right now, neither Ukraine nor the West is Russia's most threatening enemy, it is China.
Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
Thanks for this summary!
It would not have won in ww2 without USA lend lease.
yes always losing and never winning must be the way Russia got to be the biggest country on earth and managed not to lose that territory over many centuries of wars. makes perfect sense!
@@bad_writer "Pооtler the Great Loser" is rapidly sending Muscovy back to 1917.
@@carolekjellander8917 "Pооtler the Great Loser" is rapidly sending Muscovy back to 1917.
It's nice to listen to the wise one. On "inventing" long-term perspectives: just as the defeat in Afghanistan proved the weakness of the US, so the defeat of Russia in Ukraine proves the global weakness of the "superpowers" and the world is moving towards the dominance of middle-class states. In other words, there will be no return of the "concert of powers", but a global scuffle of ever smaller countries (1st trend) associating themselves into regional discussion clubs similar to the EU or ASEAN (2nd trend).
Afghanistan wasn't a defeat, The US completed the mission and left.
Roads and schools were built, they had their own elected government and their own army. What they choose to do once the US pulls out is their business.
Afghan people allowed morons to take over. They get what they get.
Hold your horses cowboy!! The US strategy in Afghanistan was to eliminate terrorist threat not to annex their territory to the USA. Correct me if I am wrong. US got rid off Bin Laden and fragmented all terrorist groups in the area. After 10 years, I believe, leaving that place was the normal course of action.
I love these videos!! I'm so grateful we live in a world where everyone can learn and become better educated. Thank you! 🤍
Russian lines are collapsing in many areas in Ukraine now. Some of the liberated Settlements (from geolocated videos) in Ukraine from this morning alone: Davydiv Brid (Kherson region), Borivska Andriivka (Kharkiv) region, Novopetrivka (Kherson region), Bohuslavka (Kharkiv region),Dudchany (Kherson region).
What a hawk !
1. I think Ukraine should take all the land back but leave Sevastopol Region on lease agreement to the Russian Navy for 50 years.
2. Internationally organized referendum to join Russia or more autonomy inside Ukraine.
3. Letting War criminals off only if Russia agrees to pay for war reparations.
4. Joint rights on Azov Sea resource exploration and exploitation.
5. Choice for Ukrainians in Russia to relocate to Ukraine and similar rights for Russian speaking Ukrainians.
I hope peace prevails but it has to be honourable to Ukraine and not humiliating to Russia.
When your (Putain's in this case) ego is so fragile, that every outcome that even looks or smells like a defeat will be experienced as a "humiliation".
Let's be all for rebuilding a neutral and/or beneficial relationship with Russia after they retreat completely, but imperialistic wars should not be rewarded.
A counterproposal:
1. Nuke Putin bunker with a few megatons
2. Smoke a ciggie
3. Go to a pub
I think you’re dreaming-smash Russia forever-Pootin for the noose
@@ThePathOfEudaimonia There can be no relationship with russia as long as putin, lavrov and dick sucking bloodhound medvedev are still alive and breathing
Short term is what you see, medium term is what you expect and long term is what you hope.
First: Thank you Mr.Stubb for your thoughts and greetings from Germany (my country of origin may play a role in my thinking).
short term:
1) we must distinguish between Russia and Mr.Putin.
2) With Mr.Putin the maximum achievable is a seize fire. Not a peace treaty.
3) Given that we cannot bet on a regime change in Russia in the short term, we must hope for a cease fire that opens opportunities.
4) I guess Ukraine will accept a cease fire after having liberated all territories that legally belong to Ukraine. This is not impossible , if the Russian army crumbles.
5) I guess Ukraine might also accept a cease fire with Crimea kept under Russian sovereigny for a transitional period but occupied by international peace troops and with the perspective of a referendum (true one) that will settle its future. That way the issue is postponed some years down the road.
medium term:
6) support Ukraine !!!. It could be part of a cease fire to convert Russian assets abroad into compensation for damages suffered by Ukraine (it s frozen anyway).
7) EU membership is of utmost importance (or come as close to it asap).
8) Nato membership is desirable (we would have the best army in the world, trained in combat, as NATO member, yummy ), but it might have a negative impact for the regime change that we hope for in Russia.- Russia will have lost its teeth anyway after a cease fire - so this issue loses urgency.
9) AT best: promoting Ukraine will be magnet for Russia. It will be a show case for the Russia citizens. ( Belarus might fall as well quickly, some volunteers who right now fight along side Ukraine might be able do the job in Minsk).
10) Once Ukraine can show the superiority of a free society to its slavic neighbors regime change in Russia will become imminent. In 5 years Putin is 75 years old.
11) Then a peace treaty is a carrot for the Russians. Russia will add the economic weight of Italy at the fringes of of EU. That can be digested.
12) We must not stop on global perspective to eventually close a transatlantic trade agreement (used to be TTIP). The western magnet must become so strong that the Russians either want to emigrate to prospering Ukraine or want to join themselves to any Western alliance.
13) The long term goal: integrate Russia into NATO and EU (long term 20 years)
Apart from that:
14) Any humiliation of Putin - we should not care. he can manipulate his media as he wishes. It up to him to sell the outcome to his audience.
15) Any humiliation of Russia : It must be avoided. Do not repeat the Versailles mistake of 1919. Don't force them to hand over Crimea right away.
16) wars get lost with "too little too late" (Do you have access to the German chancellor to tell him).
17) Once Finland is a member of Nato , they might well occupy the position of the secretary general. There is an outstanding candidate.
I have enjoyed and learned from every one of your lectures. I agree with your proposal for the long term. It doesn't sound to me that we could have a role in the medium term. As for the short term, I do not think that immunity from prosecution will have any effect on Russia's decission to stop their aggression. Also, to not prosecute Russia would be telling the world that we are willing to back down on justice if the country is a major power. If any nation is granted immunity from prosecution, then the international court of justice is not a court of justice. Also, it would be a slap in the face for Ukrainians who have severely suffered from Russian war crimes. And immunity will tell other despots that the international court will be an ineffective threat even at the symbolic level.
Alex, I tremendously enjoy your subject matter & commentary in these RUclips sessions. I like your idea about Ukraine regaining all it’s territory in exchange for an agreement not to take Russia to International Court on war crimes and other similar charges. It seems a fair and just resolution.
My concern is Russian arrogance and how to lower that conceit to a level making meaningful peace negotiations probable. Additionally there’s the reality that Ukraine, understandably, is vengefully out for Russian blood, and who can argue against that payback? Regime change in Russia, regaining all their territory, and removal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian lands is minimally necessary for Ukraine to come to the negotiating table I would think. Aside from that 1st step, there are so many things else that must happen to rebuild the physical devastation wrought by Russian hubris in Ukraine. And I don’t know how to even begin addressing the massive human tragedy which is still transpiring in Ukraine as the world numbly watches.
At present, because of false Russian pride, it unfortunately seems that Russia must be thoroughly humbled on the battlefield before they’ll renounce their unjust land grab in Ukraine and remove all Russian troops. Until such time it remains imperative for the West to continue uninterrupted providing all necessary weapons systems and munitions to Ukraine military to keep their battlefield momentum going strongly. Preferentially Russia must lose this war without fail.
How can one not join in saying: Glory to The Hero’s🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine. Truly the events transpiring in Ukraine are the David and Goliath story of modern times.
So.. Jens Stoltenberg already wanted to step down as secretary general of NATO. He still holds the position due to stability, but he has signalized that his time in that role is running out.
Can we give Alex Stubb that job? I like the cool and subjective approach to such topics. It is such persons we need there.
Alex. If you read this: I highly appriciate informative and if not assuring calculative breakdowns. Makes sense
I am an Austrian, very interested in your amazing geopolicy analyses and forecasts and I am quite concerned because of the situation in that current war? On the one hand I absolutely agree, that putins aggression must be stopped, that the ukraine has further to be supported, with weapons, intelligence services and financelly. On the other hand i fear the worst, a directly confrontation between Nato (USA) and Russia?! The threat regarding a war using nuclear weapons is very small, but is not excluded..
First Putler et al would need to get all their children etc out from the "west", by looking at Instagram the direction is the opposite to that.
Hi Alex - great to listen to your views.
To put a short-term idea forward for the current Ukraine - Russian war;
Ukraine pushes back to its original borders by force -
NATO accepts their membership once the borders have been reached -
Russia can no longer advance -
West then negotiates a comedown of sanctions currently against Russia -
Russia softens their views of war and returns to some sort of normality -
Europe is fully protected ( ex. Belarus ) from any future attacks from Russia.
I like your plan! The only missing parts are: 1. Can we clip Putin's wings so he can't cause trouble in other parts of the world he's conquering now or would dream of conquesting in the future? 2. Reparations. Putin and the Russian people need to feel the cost of the devastation they've caused in Ukraine. Their empathy meter is broken, but maybe they'd understand that actions have unintended and undesired consequences.
As a current chief executive from the tech industry, I would say that he seems to have misunderstood the meaning of that opening quote on "inventing the future" .
What does it mean?
@@JonRattlehead if you want to predict the future, you have to to "make it" yourself first, the way you want/predict it.
It's not about hypothetical scenarios. It's about creating it. That's what the quote means anyway. I don't agree with that quote, however. In my opinion, making the future on your own is theoretically possible but unrealistic in reality - much better to observe macro trends and jump on them as they appear.
In short, I personally agree with his sentiment. But the quote appears to be misrepresented
There may be an option in which Russia transforms into a less centralized construct, still policed by the FSB but where regional leaders have much more say in everything and the individual regions may even be run in different ways.
Never see that happening!
Avoidance of accountability, although frustrating is often a necessary evil. It is also the a tool only available to the rich, powerful or connected, look at January 6, or the latest prisoner exchange as an example.
13:40 Finally something sensible. We live in a world where countries do not share all perspectives of all other countries. But we at least need to _understand_ those for effective diplomacy and pragmatic trade-offs. Trade-offs that are not always _justified_ but improve the big picture: an _understanding world._ It seems Alex also starts to recognise that. Spoiler: we already have proper rules in the VN charter. We do not need the rules based order of the United States (the winners of WWII) that often disregards the VN charter and disregards the principles of other countries. And if we would have applied the VN charter consistently, this war would likely not have happened. It feels weird though to want this on the long term, while proposing solutions in orthogonal or opposite directions earlier in this video.
"This is where idealism meets realism": this goes to the heart of the question of what international order/disorder will be established in the future. Conceptually, disorder is just a different order, that is not wished by some. International institutions are based on ideas/ideals. If countries no longer share ideals (peace, prosperity, protection of the enviroment) - or if there isn't a hegemon imposing them - then we are in for a very dangerous future. The contrary of order is not disorder. It's chaos. Leaders have an interest in inventing a better future.
Great analysis, Alex, as always!
I'm a bit less optimistic perhaps on the West's willingness to continue to support Ukraine in the longer-term. Don't you think that, especially with a cold winter, higher energy prices and, probably, declining economic activity, many in Europe will be ready to accept that Ukraine will lose some of its territory to Russia? If not so, why not sending more weapons already now that the military momentum is on Ukraine's side?
I believe this man knows what he's talking about and agree with what he says good job for your professionalism in studying history and identifying the truth
Short term, I think it all hinges on the Russian Regime. From what has happened to this day, it seems the Regime pins its hopes of continuation on upping the ante and hoping for a twist of fate. Not pursuing escalation probably means an implosion. Pursuing escalation also probably leads to another bad end, but it kicks the can further down the road...
So the mid-term seems difficult to envision, since we don't know how the short term will end up. I doubt anyone does, even in Moscow.
Long-term, I fully agree with your analysis. We need some order that is less westen inspired, if only to ease tensions and accusations of Western Hegemony.
"Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "
I also would like to add that in long term we are witnessing historical dissoluiton of the Russian Empire. Just like many other empires before it, have risen and fallen, the fall sometimes can last for decades , if not centuries ( look at Roman Empire, eg.) . The fall of the Russian Empire probably started with the Russo-Japanese war, and is int its latest stage. There may be a re-birth of "Kievan Russ", and demise of Moscow as a center of power.
Hey Alex - glad you're back with another series. I love this quote about having to invent the future, and I plan to use it myself (with proper referencing of course). I wasn't prepared to go that far, but by Jove I think you've got it! Long term view includes a new and weakened Russia with reorganization of the post-WWII established global order. I didn't realize how far reaching will be the consequences of this Ukraine War. Using your style, I wish to offer 3 points to consider regarding this new global order (that we are inventing): 1) the extent to which Europe has been impelled to take the lead in organizing a post-fossil fuel society; 2) the influence of those doing research under the new discipline of Collapsology, with all the predicted further disintegration of previous global order; and 3) a phenomenon you mentioned previously: intensified reorganization into bioregional scale socioeconomic entities, which may very well include dissolution of internal boundaries in both North America and Russia....Thanks Again!
I can tell you all three scenarios for Putin: 1. losing the war, 2. losing the war badly, 3. losing the war very badly.
For Russia International law and rules are not important hence transactional aspect of the proposal does not able to cross the bar.
👏🏾✍️
That idea of granting Putin amnesty in return for withdrawal, did you get it from Quora, Alex?
Hello Alex, I thank you for your very interesting videos on Ukraine and Geopolitics. I have also been listening to Jeffrey Sachs and I have a suggestion regarding your thoughts on peace in Ukraine.
I don't agree with Sachs when he claims that NATO and and the US has pushed Putin to action by threatening to expand NATO into Ukraine and Georgia , but I think we should recognize that Russia needs a port in the Black Sea.
My suggestion is therefore that Russia is offered a small stretch of land between Georgia and Ukraine to get access to the Black Sea after giving back all the land it has taken from Ukraine.
Hi Alex, thank you for your insightful lectures. I am just a pleb with an interest in geopolitics but who knows my thoughts could contribute to this discourse. So to start, in the short term I expect a lot of chaos no matter which way it goes. A lot of things can happen, I just wish Russia would not fall apart completely or make the world a more dangerous place with more states with nukes. In the medium term I hope that Russia -- if it still exists -- will enter some kind of accountability process. This means of course reparations if possible but also being confronted with the consequences of the actions or inactions of the populace. Not in a punitive way necessarily, although not without either. But to really beam the atrocities into the living rooms of people with conversations on the personal impact on the Ukrainians. Furthermore to educate the children of Russia of how this came to be and how to make sure it never happens again. In the longer term there needs to come an end to this accountability process somehow. When certain objectives are met there needs to be closure, whether through some ritual the nations will go through for the next 100 years or something else. Maybe all of this is wishful thinking, but seeing what restorative justice can do for people, maybe we need something similar for nations. Thank you of reading.
I like your emphasis on re-education of the Russian youth. We could add some way to eliminate the "patriotic education" that Putin established to create a mentality of the glory of dying for your country ("child soldiers" and "patriotic education" in Russian schools starts in kindergarten). This feeds the paranoia and us vs. them mentality the state uses to manipulate them as expendable. The other, of course, taboo factor is that the Russian Orthodox Church is staffed by FSB officers who bless nationalism and war. Not sure how to begin, but this should be identified publicly as a contributing factor in Russian society's mentality that aggression and conquest are justified. Last thing, Russian society needs to understand deeply why "Russo-phobia" exists. They blame the victims who don't want to be victimized, rather than themselves.
One of my thoughts and questions is… will this event end centuries of Russian Imperialism and citizen non-engagement with Russian Politics? Or is this culture so entrenched that even if Putin and his oligarchs fall, we will just see a new era of the same culture? Maybe the better question is, what would need to happen to end Russian Imperialism and non-engagement?
A big factor in the war for Europe, is energy. In that sense, energy is power. Bargaining with someone when you do not need to depend upon them for the energy to heat your homes, use electrical appliances, and have (heavy) industry, is easier (though not easy) compared to bargaining with someone who controls your energy supply.
As a physicist, I like the term "power grid". Because in the power grid, a physicists understanding of power (change in energy), and a politicians understanding of power (control), come together.
In the short and medium term, some things that can be done, are: attract natural gas, keep nuclear plants running, be more efficient. But I do not see much beyond that.
In the long term, this requires a transition to renewable energy, which implies energy farming, think "wind farm" and "solar farm", as well as storage, to solve the mismatch of production and consumption, e.g. intermittent wind and sunlight.
If testing the limits of hybrid warfare is blowing up the pipelines, what on earth do you think could possibly come next? And what exactly does blowing up the Germany/Russia pileline have to do with "hybrid" warfare? Define your terms, Mr. Stubb.
There are only two scenarios that can play out at this point in the medium term:
1. Ukraine accepts territorial loss
2. Putin is deposed
I found this video very interesting. Thank you for sharing it
Thank you so much for your balanced, simple-to-follow summary of complex broader geopolitics Alex. In relation to Russia using energy as a weapon; in particular the Nord Streams 1&2, perhaps the net of responsibility for their recent demise hasn't been cast wide enough. In 2014 Condoleeza Rice said,
"Russia will run out of cash before the Europeans run out of energy....you simply want to change the structure of energy dependence. You want to depend more on the North American energy platform...for years we've been trying to get Europe to be interested in different pipeline routes, it's time to do that."
Then last February, just prior to the invasion, Joe Biden somewhat less subtly stated (verbatim):
"If Russia invades (Ukraine) then there will be no longer Nord Stream 2, we will bring an end to it...I promise you we will be able to do it."
Since NATO initially suggested the Nord Stream failures could be 'acts of sabotage' and that it may retaliate against any attacks on the critical infrastructure of its member states, it all seems to have gone a bit tumbleweed on the 'western front'! Hmm...
Not a prediction, but a question. In five years, will there still be a diaspora of Ukranians and also some these Russian men in places like Turkey, Georgia, Poland, and even the US? Will they stay or return? A country like the US didn't have a particularly notablee Ukranian diaspora until recently, and in the US, large diasporas can really elevate how much the US puts a smaller country that isn't a major ally to top of mind. Does Ukraine come out as a new key American partner?
There is a significant bandwidth of options within the category of Russian accountability and western response to war crimes: one could be removal of Russia from UN Security Counsel.