Understanding the war in Ukraine (12) - The New World Order
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- Опубликовано: 9 июл 2024
- STG Director Prof Alexander Stubb sheds light on the war in Ukraine in a series of video lectures. Each lecture focuses on a different angle regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The twelfth and final episode of the series, gives an outlook on a potential new world order.
Previous video lectures in this series cover the general situation, Finland, Europe, "the world", Russia, China, the United States of America, NATO, Power, instruments of power, and the "West and the Rest."
This episode was recorded on 2 May 2022.
More on eui.eu/stg
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #AlexanderStubb #Russia #West #USA 
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Don't worry, this series may be over, but we have more topical content on Ukraine with Alex Stubb and other EUI profs in the pipeline. Subscribe to make sure you don't miss it!
Please do. Mr. Stubb is super detailed and informative. I learned alot from these.
Thank you. I cannot wait!
Thank you!
Hi there, are these videos under Creative Commons licences? Could I translate it in Ukrainian language and share it?
@@MrArfelio it seems to be possible as long you mention the source . Very educational isn’t it??
Good afternoon Prof. from South Africa 🇿🇦. I am sad this afternoon as I have so enjoyed this mini series of yours. I have learned so much from you and I admire your immense knowledge. I have dowloaded your entire series. Please consider some more programmes please. Thank you and best regards. Sharon
I second your motion for Alex to “Please consider some more programmes please”.
SAD
@@subbangovender3476 just curious. Why are you “SAD” ?
@easystreets70 “putsch”? (Please define terms for what you are asking) Are you referencing the Maidan Revolution?
Putin started war to extend his power
The problem is that the United States has abandoned all the ideals it claims to fight for. For example, we do not have free markets; we have rigged markets. We talk of democracy, yet we pursue global hegemony. We seek dominance. Our "rules based order" means the US makes all the rules and everyone else must obey them. And all the rules are designed for our own advantage.
Also at home. We talk about democracy but a minority of Americans -- the Trumper Republicans -- are disenfranchising people and going against the vast majority of Americans who want gun control, and legal abortion. I don't believe we have a functioning democracy at all.
POOF that the founding fathers were illuminati
ruclips.net/video/EFPmPrzLWtA/видео.html
So What! Go live somewhere else. Move to Russia next month.
There is a far better future for Russia than there is for the US. If I were a young man I would consider leaving the US for Russia or eastern Europe.
We do not need this guy speaker to explaine. Common people like me know than him.You did explein tha USA is Thiran. USA and global elites take us as slaves. USA made in Ukraine 30 bioilabs to make biowepons and start bioworfair fir their gaine. I am diply convinced that Covid 19 was created and of highe possibility it was developed not in China but in Ukraine. Russions are not idiots. They will not stop before all those Ukraines who were involved in this making bio warfair wapons are killed. At the moment 50.000 Ukraines are killed. Will be more and Ukraine forever will be destroyed. Would you aloud this sort of staff near your border? . USA has crosse the red line done it. USA should be stopped
This whole series has been brilliant and hugely sane. It deserves a much larger audience. Thank you Alexander!
Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya led these countries Tyrana for decades, Saddam used a chemical bomb against his people in Iran and inside the country in Iraq, on the orders of Milosevic in Yugoslavia they killed thousands of civilians, not military people, but the children of Bosnian Muslims, also in Libya and in Syria, the Russians stood behind all these and commanded them since Soviet times, thats why Donald Reagan called Russia an evil empire.
🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢🐷
@easystreets70 putler started war to extend his power
You are stupid mind, Putin killed more than 1 million people in Syria , Sovet Union killed more than 16 million people
@easystreets70 ,
Hitlin👿 is a madman (megalomaniac, re his fantasy of a new Soviet Union), he's a kleptomaniac🤑, re his unashamed theft and robbery of the Russian people (and so are his greedy🎃🤑 oligarchs) and a war criminal👹, and deserves to be condemned🤕by every morally decent human being !😇😟
?
All good things come to an end. Thank you professor for this truly wonderful series. Every morning after dropping off my son to daycare I was hoping a new episode would be uploaded. And the mornings where there was no new episode, I happily listened to the latest episode a second or third time....or fourth.
It's been an enlightening experience. Thanks again for this initiative on your part allowing others to better understand the dynamics involved in and around the conflict imposed on Ukraine.
Your friend from Canada, L.
Great series. We have to continue the struggle for freedom and democracy. Its a pity we shot ourselves in the foot. The invasion of Iraq did so much to undermine the West's case and inflict needless suffering.
People keep saying this and we could debate all day the problems caused by the invasion of Iraq but I feel like all these comparisons being made to Russia invading Ukraine are completely disingenuous.
Assumes I'm comparing the two events. I'm not. Simply pointing out that - the element's of the west that contributed - pointlessly gave away moral authority. I too live in a country that did not partake.
The rest of the world will repeat oh but Iraq…. Forever. They use it as a wedge to allow new hitters to run wild. It’s always bland anetica not deal with genocide. A convenient crutch used by europe and the rest of the world and relished by Putin.
The west is double standard as always.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Professor Stubb, I have enjoyed these presentations immensely. Thank you for balanced analyses as a diplomat/ scholar as well as your political perspective from someone whose held leadership roles in a country that's clearly had to balance various interests over time.
Great series, hope to see much more of you.
An excellent lecture, thank you. I agree, especially with the final words. Nations should learn to listen and understand each other better. Respect instead of arrogance goes a long way. You don’t have to agree on everything, but as human beings, our basic needs are the same everywhere: “peace, security, stability, and prosperity” (as you mentioned). Basically, everyone should do their part for them, commit to the same rules. In practice, it can be tricky. I think it requires working on old grudges, and a more conciliatory attitude in the future. Cooperation could be of great benefit to all parties. It could create bridges between different peoples, starting with economic benefits and ending with a better cultural understanding. Meaning a more peaceful and harmonious coexistence. Something to dream about ...
This series was fantastic. It's difficult to take a long view of history these days, and to hold on to the notion that human beings and their societies seek stasis. Drastic swings of the pendulum make it difficult to focus attention on the center.
@easystreets70
There was none.
Like what are you talking about?
Do you mean when Yanukovych tried to ban protests and ordered the massacre of protestors?
I mean that sure looked like he was trying to do what the nazis did to democracy in Germany.
Do you mean that a mass murderer fleeing to Russia to avoid a life time sentence, leaving the country without a president, is the same as a coup?
That is not a coup more than a classical American school shooting is one.
Yanukovych not having the spine to face the consequences of his horrible actions is not the same as a coup.
Well maybe you can look at it as if Russia conducted a coup on them selves in Ukraine lol.
Tack Alexander för en väldigt lärorik serie! Jag blir ärligt glad varje gång jag ser dig på TV eller att du har kommit ut här på YT med nya visdomsord....För jag vet att jag kommer lära mig något nytt och viktigt!
Thank you very much for giving of your time and intelligence for making these and making them common sensical to most of us. You are very articulate. CONGRATULATIONS. A man with wisdom and common sense.
Great job Alex. You are in the top 10 exports Finland ever produced!
He spoke the whole truth one is the un organizational works no more.
Great presentation as always. Please keep them coming and greeting s from Kherson, the "Ukrainian Alamo".
Thanks and rare to see such type of conclusion! I wish there is a shared purpose for humanity which units different values and identities, which we fight about!
I feel sorry this series has come to an end but I sincerely thank you for the time and effort you have made for a wider public audience. Not only have you given us your well balanced opinions but you have given your school a wider profile amongst people who like me had not heard of this institution. So here is hoping you will from time to time, when you can spare the time, address us again……… Thanks and Best wishes.
Hello
How are you doing today
Nice to meet you
@easystreets70 hello
How are you doing today
@easystreets70 hi I feel good and you?
Where are you from?
@easystreets70 yes, I came to find friends and business partner
@easystreets70 nice to meet you
....thank you very much for speaking this way and explaining complecate interferences...even for a non-native english speaker... brilliant!!!
The breadth of your understanding was misunderstood, at least by me. Prognostigating is a dangerous science sir. I think you are in a unique position to foretell. Your command of the weight of world history is more than impressive. I just hope u continue to share your mood with the rest of us.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Very fascinating series on Ukraine war that encapsulated the takes of all countries affected by this war. All countries... except Ukraine.
A powerful conclusion Professor - thank you !
I share your hopes for a balanced multipolar future & see it as the solution for having a future at all, however difficult it will be to achieve.
The alternatives make our futures look bleak.
Not me. Multipolar order equals colonial agression and world war.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Great job. So insightful. If only I had the time, freedom and $$ to go study with you in Italy. Thanks for sharing your experience, expertise and insights with the world for FREE.
Thank you for spending the time to create and share this content. Is there further perspective/educational/etc material that is accessible to Americans in the US? This has been a great/valuable series to keep my ignorance's/blindspots/idiosyncrasy/etc in check wish the content continued/evolved/etc indefinitely, recalibrating to the ever-changing world climate/environment/etc
Thank you very much for this extraordinary series, Prof. Stubb and STG EUI. It was both information-loaded and easily digestible.
About the emerging world order, I would like to offer two thoughts on the points you have mentioned.
First, I second your thought about the regionalization of powers. Speaking from a country coming from Southeast Asia (SEA), I see economy and security continuously steering towards an Asia-centric paradigm where the primary driver is obviously, China. Despite the outstretch of the pandemic, the foreign policies of China are responsive to its neighbor's needs (ie. vaccine development, humanitarian aid, and logistics) and were in a niche to provide one given their influence founded holistically, on the soft, hard, and smart power and geography as discussed. Even at times, seen as a threat, there is the inclination of the Asian market toward China due to its rich economic production. This itself can propel the emerging world order but of course, not determining. SEA, although have emerging economies is yet to unite under one identity and is still country-centric rather than SEA-centric, hence, Asia as the "region" is a more appropriate scale. However, there are several reservations that Asian countries have with China that pushes its relationships to a negotiable one rather than a fully altruistic and dependent one. Its existing territorial disputes are a testament to this and the authoritarian rule of government. Oppositions (ie. Japan and India) on the region are arising too but given China's climb to power backed by its long history, it is immature to firmly challenge its Asian hegemony.
Second, I do think that liberal democracy will still prevail not only in Asia but in the world in general, but on a different flavor due to the tighter grip to crack down on the threats to democracy such as disinformation. This is more apparent in countries with a robust democracy such as in the EU and US but would take time for others to catch up. I still feel ambivalent about how this can work without impeding one's right to privacy and choice, in particular, but I still believe that power will still lie in the hands of the people with the existence of dominant liberal democracies as examples. The fight will be formidable but I would also like to speak with a spark of hope in future democratic leaders.
I am not an expert on this matter but I would love to learn more and am welcome any corrections to my point of view.
Thanks again and I look forward to more lectures on this channel.
I think this is the best chapter of your lecture series. A multi-polar world with a rules based order makes so much sense. And yes, this world is indeed too valuable to be wasted in senseless conflict. Stop the Russo-Ukraine War!
Russia, China and half of the US would prefer a superpower world.
THANK U FOR TELLING THE TRUTH.....& THANK U for all of your WISDOM...& INSIGHT ...
.. WOW
Good morning Alexander, thank you for sharing your valuable, very sane, intelligent and completely agreeable insights. I must say your 12 episode mini series have been highly appreciated. Would need politicians around the world to listen and take some lessons from you. Hope to mert you in Florence soon. Best regards Alessandro
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Thank you for this series of lectures. I value your explanations and insights
Nice. I think, or I would appreciate a lesson number 13 about leadership. Because without fair leaders, who can speak and in a few sentences explain, without leaders having no unspoken unfair personal interests (whatever these can be, finance, overgrown ego, etc.) the disorder even in the countries that today formed the "western coalition" will only grow. I was a youngster when Reagan started his presidential career, a youngster in a state of the Eastern communist block. But I do remember the hope, we always felt hearing him speaking, straight and clear. Only later did I learn, that there was an equally important George Schultz, who knew and made happen speaking with the enemies,
I think the role of the leaders needs a broad discussion in the society (societies), in order to prevent faults which we see and saw just recently in our free part of the world. The role of a leader in turbulent times coming is inevitable and irreplaceable.
Thanks! I love your matter of fact approach and how your opinions strictly express what you believe will happen.
Breath of fresh air for critical thinking.
This is my first exposure to you series, and I will go back and watch from the beginning. I enjoyed hearing your perspective about the future, and would like to tell you that your vision for the future is likely coming. We have three potential futures, one where mankind goes down into power games, one where crises are passed on to future generations, and another that allows mankind to function on a higher level because we address the principles of equality and liberty and freedom, and no one is left out of the benefits.
There is a plan for world peace that was first introduced in 1999, but it wasn't until 2011 that the plan reached the level of the world leaders. It was leveraged through the diplomatic community in Washington DC to the world leaders, and as of today, people in 88 nations support the plan for world peace. It opened the door to Iran and the JCPOA, and to Cuba and to North Korea. If you recall, President Obama asked Jimmy Carter to go into North Korea to talk to Kim Jong Il, and he came out saying, "They will talk!" When the Republicans resisted, he told Obama, "Don't worry about the Republicans, world peace is coming!"
The plan is for the creation of an international government based on two proven concepts--the US Constitution and the economic principles of the cooperation of nature. The Constitution has enabled a land of diverse cultures and religions to live in peace for over 270 years, except for the Civil War, and the cooperation of nature has enabled a sense of abundance for over a billion years. By taking the US Constitution to the global level, where every nation is treated the way the states are treated in the US, disputes between nations will be resolved in court rather than the battlefield, and the monies wasted on war will go the people instead.
The basis for the international legal system will be Universal Law, which is based on seven principles: equality, liberty, freedom, compassion, abundance, capacity and tolerance. In effect, it will guarantee to every person on the planet our unalienable rights that are granted to us by our Creator.
Your comment about regional government fits into the plan for world peace, based on the creation of local courts to handle disputes between nations of the same continent, superior courts for disputes between continents, and an international Supreme Court.
Fantastic series
Great lectures, I learned a lot. Thank You very much. During the course You mentioned some books, I would appreciate to have a book-list for further inquieries. Thank You again.
Thank you for a very interesting, informative and uplifting series. Would love to see more of the same.
Thank you very much for this exceptional series. I am beginning to better understand now. 😊 But as discoveries are made, new questions can emerge (and they do!). At this moment, Denmark is preparing for a referendum about getting rid (or not) of one of our 4 conditions, that we had, when we became a member of the EU in 1973. At that time: 1) We did not want to enter the third phase of the economic and monetary union (politics before the Euro), 2) We did not want to have supranational cooperation in justice and home affairs, 3) We did not want to have citizenship of the union. 4) We did not want to take part in the decisions and actions in the field of defence. The last one of these four conditions, will be taken into a referendum in June 1, 2022. Most people would argue, that this referendum comes now, due to the War in Ukraine and the crisis in the world order. My question is: Do you think it is better for a nation like Denmark, to continue to be outside of the collaboration in the field of defence in the EU, or not? I know exactly, that I will vote YES to get rid of the fourth condition. But I want to know what you think, with all your insight in politics and the World order. And because the population of Finland is in many ways similar to the Danish population.
With the finishing point, I am not sure how such an approach would practically look like, especially when a large part of the world have little interest in a rules-based international system but clearly desire domination of it (because such a world order would not allow them to gain undue influence that they feel entitled to using phrases such as "undoing the century of shame")?
and a sense of entitlement. like india for example:
the english looted and stole from us, now it is our turn to loot and steal from somebody else.
aah, the good old Rules Based Order. Gotta love a good Rules Based Order. Especially when America and the West make the rules (in our own image). We punish anyone unable or unwilling to abide by our rules (using terms such as democracy & sovereign integrity as justifications and our controls over world economic functions as blunt instruments) eg Cuba, Venezuela, Russia etc. We break our very own rules at will and with impunity eg Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Yemen etc. And we sanctimoniously applaud our moral superiority in all of this? Is it any wonder Russia, China, much of the Middle East & Asia & Africa and Sth America are considering alternatives to the economic systems we use to underwrite our Rules Based Order?
@@k2hsharpe it is easy to be cynical but I believe we should fear US disengagement more than their engagement. Yes the UN has been a prop for US interests but it doesn't have to be that way. Those rules should be welded against all aggressors and rules around reparations put in place to dampen US, Chinese or Russian adventurism.
@@k2hsharpe
copy and past does make propaganda drivel not more real
A most informative series. Thank you Dr. Stubb
Excellent series. Thank you so much. In North America, I believe we have become complacent about democracy, focussing excessively on individual rights. Even in Canada, we have had violent protests over Covid mandates with some even claiming that our government is acting like a fascist state. Many here also defend Russia saying that ‘it must have a reason’, pointing to NATO expansion, Nazis and other Russian propaganda. I think you do an excellent job explaining the importance of understanding history (I agree that Mearsheimer is wrong) as well as the fragility of liberal democracy. People who want to ‘tear it all down’ to replace it with their populist gurus, don’t know what they are playing with. Ultranationalist Russians, who have supported Putin and this war, will soon understand, if they don’t already.
Excellent final point. The agreement on fundamentals is exactly what has disappeared, particularly in the West, and between the West and the rest of the world. I think of financial priorities, industrial policy, family formation and disintegration, immigration, national identity, etc. It seems clear to me that the West is an historical and present-day ideological outlier in these fields. The Western world may be morally correct in the pursuit of its goals but that does not mean that the pursuit of such goals will add rather than subtract from global cohesion or integration. It is also possible that the West is not correct in the pursuit of its goals, but that is another matter. Without axiomatic stability, how can any order be established, maintained, or restored?
Have truly enjoyed this series! Thank you!!!
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Thank you for this series. I have a much better understanding now.
"We shall have world government whether or not you like it, by conquest or consent."
Statement by Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) member James Warburg to The Senate Foreign Relations Committee on February 17th, 1950
I appreciate your views in your lectures. However, I suspect that the coming years will witness a backlash from the Global South against the Western hypocrisy and Neo colonization. The double standards by the US and EU with regards to human rights, freedom and markets have been too blatant to be overlooked by the people from Asia,Africa and Latin America. In the post Cold War period where some people were more equal than others and mass murders and bombings carried out in the pretext of implementing Western values of freedom and market economy.Mark my words, the coming years will be painful for the World which has been over reliant on Western hypocrisy driven by lust and greed of the privileged.
The global south is going to do what? With what?
Russian hypocrisy and Neo colonization?
Russian war crimes.
Putin's 700 million dollar yatch.
What about THAT hypocrisy?
Hello anybody care yo comment?
True
👏🏻 I am anti-war but totally agree with you. If wars against Yugoslavia and Irak never happened, Russia wouldn’t have grounds to justify its horrific atrocities against the “brother state”.
@@liudmilabrus7017 What horrific atrocities? Where are they being committed? Ukraine?
Russia says it has not done anything wrong. How is that for some hypocrisy. How does Yugoslavia and Iraq justify anything? You going on about lies about depleted uranium and other lies about WMDs? This makes it okay for Russia to commit atrocities against their brother?
NO IT DOES NOT!!
@@wolfvale7863 It’s not a war. It’s a special operation more comparable with what the US Seal and CIA forces are doing all the time. Russia wants to eliminate the neo nazi forces in Ukraine, nothing more. If this was a real war they would have bombed all of Ukraine back to the stone ages in a week and nothing would be left of Kiev and the infrastructure. This is what might happen to us in Finland if we really join NATO. Russia won’t accept it and we Finns don’t mean anything to the Russians. Scary shit! Sweden might join NATO anytime because Russia doesn’t care because it is not a neighboring country to Russia. Stupid Finnish leadership with bought or brainwashed politicians.
Let me start with the fact that I have watched each of the 12 episodes multiple times. I guess that means that I agree with your perspective. I would like to continue a dialog with you as an American of 71 years whose interest is constitutionally based. The American Constitution in its root form defines the original source of political power in the United States as the individual citizen. This power remains dominant as it is incorporated into ever larger groups. This Constitution grudgingly gives power to the State and then more grudgingly to the Federal. That is why there is so much power in the Bill of Rights, the 14th Amendment, and the 17th Amendment. Humans are social creatures. This creates problems as well as assets. The function of government is to mitigate the conflict inherent between the individual and social groups of like minded people (for instance religious, political, ethnic) who seek to overpower Individual Liberty.
My complements. I’ve chided family members on their insufficiently serious attention to this crisis. After having gotten agreement to listen to some CDs I would copy from RUclips downloads, I came across your series. Just what I needed was my thought! After delivering the first CD, I begin doubting. To me the “lectures” had been impressive in the way they fit pieces together. But I was familiar with many of the pieces. What would it be like for listeners who were not? I need not have worried. The quality was recognized and inspired repeated listening and questions.
Thank for this series! I’ve enjoyed ever minute.
Wonderful series. Thank you to the STG at EUI and Prof. Stubb. I am looking forward to more content.
Thank you Professor Stubb. You are always informative and easy to follow. I hope to see more of you on this podcast.
Thank you, great series. More, please!
Thank you. This series has been enlightening.
Great lecture. It seems to me that you are willing to accept the totalitarian regimes as part of the international community of nations, unlike what was done in the cold war. I believe that freedom of speech and human rights are more important and supercede the trade and commerce world view. We are I believe in the beginning of a major world reshaping that will take many years to be defined.
Very informative series, thanks. As for rules based order, well for dictators and some democracies ( e.g. Western nations agreed to invasion of Iraq), they apply rules only when it suits them.Strategic interests can override agreed rules.
Thank you for this series 👍
This is really beautiful presentation from this wonderful man from south Africa. Well done indeed. This is exactly what I would always like to listen to
Thanks so much professor
Special regards
I've LOVED this lecture and found myself calmed somewhat from Mr. Stubb's ability to put a plausible explanation to the craziness of Russia's insane cruelty. OK, here's my take away from this series, but let me preface it by the fact I'm a ... shallow and stupid person.
1. I think he kind of hedged his outlook by not predicting any one clear power/influencer of the world.
2. I'm left slightly more optimistic, from my current gloomy opinion of the worlds future.
3. Most of all I find myself OVERJOYED by the fact that Russia wasn't even worthy of being mentioned as having any iota of ... significance in the future of the world order.
There's not so much that's hard to understand about what the conflict. I think this guy is a pro-Ametican, pro-italist. He is a slick liar for Big Finance. Aniti+Populi, He's an advocate of American Hegemony He's an arrogant Windbag.. I would not be.surprised if he is on the Board of World Economic Forum. He has no conscience and would not be at all bothered if millions of humans die..And he wants Oligarch like Schwab, Bill Gates, the megawealthy. He is a PIG who like to see millions of Russians and American perish. And he would dance on their graves! He:s a predator.
Your inability to empathise/listen to Russia’s well documented concerns lays bare your predijuce . A lot of these countries , dare I say in particular the United States brings a lot of historical baggage to the new world order. That’s why we need to move away from the current state of affairs.
@@jaydenhuwa1654 As far as my ability to empathise with Russia, you couldn't be MORE WRONG about me. Russia has now lost any good will or respect from me, due to their actions in Ukraine. SLAVA UKRAINE, HEROYAM SLAVA!
THANK you for your thoughts on the new world order. I missed in your assessment the influence of the climate change, which to my mind plays a far greater role to what lies ahead. Indeed we have learned from the recent invasion of Russia to the Ukraine what it does to the known previous world order, less food, inflation, most likely more decease and lots of displaced people. That however is learned, nations will have to look at their own interests more and do not, rely on globalization too much, it backfires. Most concerning is the flood of emigration from poor and starving nations to the so called richer ones, it will bring tremendous problems to lots of countries. to avoid this from happening is only possible if the wealthy world understands that they have to share and be more fair to the poorer countries, especially since most of these countries have a history of being exploited in the past. greetings from Africa IBK
These countries are still be used. US wants African resources especially Central Africa. Listen to what Blinken had to say to Africa. US wants to bully African nations to support them but why should they do that - look up Russia's influence and help historically and which countries implemented Apartheid in SA. When we look at how AA are being treated what treatment do you think they are metering out in Africa. UN in Mali etc
thank you for this series. Thoughtful and well-presented. As a parent, I ask "what is the lesson we want to teach?".
Thank you, Professor Stubb, for this informative and well-presented series. I have one question: How concerned are you about the world being able to effectively meet the challenge of climate change, given this atmosphere of disorder?
I'm ashamed to say my thinking has been very Amerocentric (?) for the last 71 years if you know what I mean. I have been watching a great deal of news from Europe since this war started and have really gained a different perspective. Thank you so much for furthering my education. These mini lectures were well thought out and presented.
Very interesting series. I am looking forward to your follow-on series. The only issue I have is that after 12 episodes, it's a series of mini-lectures, not a mini-series of lectures. ;-)
The fact that it was a series of mini-lectures is exactly why it was ... brilliant, and proved to be incredibly popular.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
Here i sit in a rural little hamlet in the western cape SA.I am in agreement with your assesment…..! Don’t stop ,your’e a voice of reason🦅
I feel extremely grateful that this exists
I would say the world order will be based on capitalist Democratic and Autocratic countries. But it will be multipolar based on a structural Realist balance of power politics between the US, China, and Russia. My question is; if Russia and China were liberal democracies with similar systems as the US, however they maintain strong levels of power, will they still be engaged in balance of power politics? In a unipolar world, the main power has no other country to balance, however in a bipolar/multipolar world balance of power politics come into play, in part due to the international system of anarchy. Or would adopting values of liberalism overcome the game of balance of power and the insecurity effects of the system of anarchy? I doubt that one.
very interesting, this is the first lecture i watched. Your thesis on the new world order does seem a bit idealistic. Have you addressed how the totalitarian leaders of which there are many can transition out of this. There is no win for them in democracy, human rights etc. Recently the trend seems to have been the rise of the strong man in many states.
You seem to see things my way. Its so many thoughts and ideas that you see the things I see and it brings me some comfort to have so much in common with someone.
I have thoroughly enjoyed this whole series. The vids are useful, informative, and evocative. Thanks for producing them, Mr. Stubb. On this last one, I also hope for a peaceful World Order in the future, and agree that liberal democracy is the best means to realize that. At present though, I still see a future fraught with disarray and conflict. In many democratic nations, we are seeing a rise populism and autocrats gaining widespread support. The USA, France, Germany, Poland, and Hungary have all seen a groundswell of support for nationalists, and this threatens the continuation of stability and democracy in these and many other nations. The cause, I believe, is not the individual populist leaders. They are nothing but a symptom of ideological disease. No, the cause is the failure of governments, indeed those same liberal democracies, to self-regulate and protect the opportunity for prosperity for all of its citizens. Wealth inequality, essentially, and it has left many feeling disenfranchised by their own government. They seek answers, Populists step in and blame it all on immigrants, and other sundries and things. These are rather comforting lies for the disenfranchised and they sign on with the program. It leaves us with crippling internal and external divisions. I can't help but imagine Putin saw all this, and thereby believed the US and the EU could not muster the will to oppose him in his adventurism in Ukraine. These cracks within the liberal democracies, as we can see, have far-ranging effects. What, I believe, the liberal democracies must do to ensure their continued existence is correct wealth inequality. But it isn't just about that. Everybody doesn't need to be rich, they just need good jobs, good healthcare, and economic security. Ensure that the populace has that, and Populism and Nationalism will no longer have fertile ground to spawn in. If we can individually and collectively fix these problems, a peaceful World Order has a good chance to be realized.
Very good series. While the term regionalization is helpful in understanding current trends, Europe breaking its addiction to Russian oil and gas is a "bump" in that generalization. An important factor in understanding the war in Ukraine.
Great series, thank you for creating and for sharing. I would love to concur with your optimism Alex, as shared in this 12th and last episode for now. And yet my personal experience of living here in Asia would suggest otherwise. The hatred and disdain of the west is honestly shocking in Asia. You don't mention social media and I feel that it along with an unregulated meta world will result in a global division like nothing we have seen since the middle ages. The narrative over the past 10 years in Asia and believe similarly in Africa, has and is being controlled by China and side kick Russia. While we sell our ideas and the necessity for freedom of speech and democracy, China has been moulding and manipulating continents with its Belt & Riad initiatives and its revisionist history. And of course our part, the lies on the reasons for the wests engagement in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and North African has helped none. It will take an almighty vulnerability and honest retelling of history to turn around the negative perception of the west here in Asia. Evidence from the most recent presidential election in the Philippines as most recent evidence ( Marcos as friend of China and anti west). Being back in Europe in March this year made me realise the absolute delusion we live under in Europe, that others might understand no less care about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Simple example, while Europe aligns with the US in supporting Ukraine, Asia sees Ukraine as a fight of natural order where the west created the problem and they are quite ok about what Russia is doing in balancing things out. Perhaps that may change when food shortage and massive food inflation becomes a reality, but even then China has already set the narrative. This is all about Europe being the US puppet and so the world is becoming bipolar again, except this time its the west vs the rest including China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and most of South America and Africa. An example of the massive irony is Indonesia, who have been courting Elon Mush for years and in the past weeks, Joko Widodo, meeting him and all positive hype. Outcome seems as the hen is coming home to lay the golden egg with Tesla's next Asian plant to be built there. And yet Indonesians as Malaysians distrust if not hate America and the west and will never support the US/West so called democratic agenda. So i would offer a bit of a rethink on Chapter 12 in terms of world order and of what is China and Asia and how they hold sway these days outside of the "west", selling a very anti west narrative. The question I would position to you Alex and to all politicians in the "West'", is what can be done now to counter the China narrative and economic influence, and I would suggest it is not by moving more soldiers or ships to Asia. It's also not just bringing business and offering economic support to Asia, as the people here, just as Widodo with Tesla, will take and embrace with open arms and a wide smile and then reject/sabotage the west in his next words/actions at global/regional summits or in the UN. Perhaps what the EU is doing in Africa with an equivalent program as Belt and Road may help and yet there again, there is a rightful skepticism of Europe after centuries of colonial rule and theft.
This is what I worry about, all the disinformation and revisionist history being shoveled out by China and Russia and all the anti-Western propaganda. I’ve been seeing it everywhere online and it’s frankly shocking and I feel like we’ve been sleeping on this.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
I am Asian and you are right. It's all about race, if West wants to be honest and show they really mean what they talk, first step would be to give proportional appropriation of political power to non white in USA, even if 40 percent of USA is non white they are almost non existent in position of power. How many non white Generals are there? How many non whites hold powerful position in US administration? How US senete and Congress is still all white?
The thing is that the east is not wrong; we here in the west have a terrible mistrust of our government and media (which is mostly owned by gov) and we have been losing all our said freedoms steadily, especially via social media. We are all scared to death of what our government is doing to us and to other countries but we are so divided (just as they planned) on every little issue that we can't seem to pull together to solve the bigger problems 😢 😔
@Donal, wow that's a powerful summary. I live in Australia and as someone who has lived in many countries what you say makes sense. I would say two things: 1. While the world has always been both envious of US power and US ignorance in how it has wielded that power supporting wars that led to the deaths of citizenry in many countries governments have known that the US really ensured that global trade could occur, but that may be changing and the future where the US disengages from protecting Ukraine and fails to sail it's navy to the South China sea if China is looking to expand it's presence is something that nation states around the world fear. 2. I think that as people come to have more certainty of food and shelter then freedom of thought and culture becomes important: the Ukrainians have done a great job in social media thanks in part to Elon Musk's Starlink that ensures information in and out of anywhere and I hope that information can be like sunlight, it can help to break through to more people over time who will see that governments that arrest and torture citizens for what they say are not worth supporting. And to Westerners who fear their government, please travel more as it will help you see how much freedom of thought and culture you actually have - you have the freedom to publicly complain safely and that cannot be guaranteed in places like Russia and China.
This is so great, it helped me a lot in my exam as IR undergraduate!
Incrdibly good summer lectures for me!
This has been a fantastic series... There are two major players-- USA and China... it is tge competition between the two and a decline of Europe will create opportunities for the global south-- India, Brazil, South Africa... they will want a seat at the table of global multi lateral governance systems!!
i would like to point out that if the last century was -- airbrushing history and seeing history through rose tinted glasses by dictating rules..
this system will be confronting hypocricies of the west... more relational based. the Brits and Americans will have get over Winston Churchill》
EU would have to engage in a more meaningful way with the rest.
Great points - we need a rule based system for the new world order.
Thank you for this very interesting series!
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national autodetermination practiced in past centuries."
David Rockefeller, founder of the Trilateral Commission, in an address to a meeting of The Trilateral Commission, in June, 1991.
Very good analysis and most probably correct. In my view, Brics which is the combination of Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe, will play a HUGE role in the mix going forward. It's pretty much safe to say it, and hopefully having a middle east representative would be just perfect.
I am from India, but feel very sorry to give my opinion that so called democratic countries are playing double game.
What game does Russia & China play?
such a relief to hear reason.
He explained things well. My take is the world is a "ball of confusion" in a manic state.
Big conflict surely await. Because USA can't live without petrol dollar, can't live without their militarize big dollar industry and above it is impossible to step down as big bully of the world. All these factors will make USA and its allies clash with China and Russia. Even if India were to grow and challenge the status quo, they too will not be tolerated by the West. But because of democracy system and because of their deep culture, India will not able to grow as China.
So it is just basically a time bomb. Sad but such is true fact we are living in in today world.
That's the funny thing. I get amused looking at the US and the changes they make with the attitude to their political system from the perspective of me having lived in the USSR, and I see that the same centralisation, same planning, same rights equality, same inert stagnation caused by the lack of real international and internal competition - take place. And authoritarianism, too, when it comes to minor issues, like COVID restrictions - that could transform to full-scale authoritarianism without ordinary people knowing. And still Anglo-Saxon politicians talk from the "we are the civilisation" moral ground. If some young man is reading this comment, I would suggest you to live until you're 60, and make a comparison between the life in the USSR had a while ago and that of the US, that once valued capitalism (with social inequality that derives from it), competition, freedom of speech and differences of opinion - it is all deteriorating
True
It's very true about EU as well... It reminds me of USSR more and more, ruled by the people whom we never elected :)
Nicely done. Do you think the same components of this world view are happening within the consciousness a growing percentage of human beings on the planet as we evolve as a species?
NICE SERIES! HOPE EU AND US AUTHORITY WILL FOLLOW YOUR SERIES!
Star Trek system
I agree with your consensus, to a point. I am afraid that to give up the efforts up (peacefully) trying to spread democracy where statists and authoritarianism exists will harbor further examples of abuses of human rights. Nearly everywhere you look at a major authoritarian style of government, you can follow a long tail of abuse, and unfortunately, often atrocities.
Genocides and war crimes have been committed in the name of democracy promotion. Usually more people die by the end of the west's human rights campaigns.
To listen is necessary of course to have effective communication but some of the various elements in this emerging order are well known and desire dialogue only for appearance sake to achieve their ends. Thank you for rhe healthy discussion that includes rhe current situations!
One correction its not 2.5 half month war. Its 8 years active phase far, and 300 + years war
The American [US] founders took one of the oldest and most valuable concepts, "Do not do to others what would be hateful if done to you," filtered through the thought of Locke, Hobbes and the philosophers of the French Enlightenment, and produced a powerful concept:
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
Utterly hypocritical when proposed by male chauvinist slave owners, to be sure, but containing the seed of a great truth that would slowly germinate and spread. Countries like Finland have tempered capitalism with social responsibility and state power with humanitarian concern.
The US, in the meantime, has continued to mutate like a laboratory culture [indeed has been likened to a great experiment]. Sometimes we take two steps forward, then a step or two back, but at least we remain dynamic, becoming static would be the end of history for us.
This has been a very interesting and thought-provoking series. If I were still teaching I would definitely recommend it to my students.
Well said Jay.
I do think that 'state' will have to find a way to reign in the excessive power that multinational corporations have at present.
The "all men are created equal....." Was not hypocritical - It was was a poison pill aimed at slavery by George Mason's protege, young Thomas Jefferson. We were headed to war with the world's great super power and we needed all 13 colonies if we were to have any small chance at all, including the state's that had not yet given up slavery. I learned this in high school - we need better schools
How many people has USA murdered since the end of WW2? They killed millions. More than a million in Iraq murdered and the country in ruins shows how wonderful the United States is? The history of the USA shows a murderous people who have had only a few years of peace in their entire existence.
@@grisall This point is arguable. I agree that we need better schools.
Admitting or even inviting Sweden, or Finland is redusing NATO current member´s security SINCE IT IS RISING PROBABILIY OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA...rising probability of brutal destrucion in nuclear war. USA is all behind this stupid inviting new members!!! USA is making Europe unsafe rather than safe!! WE need to get rid of USA here in Europe, not Russia!! Russia is our neighbour , not USA, Russia can sell us cheap oil and gas and other raw materials not USA!!!! I do not support invasion in to Ukraine, but IMHO it was 100% preventable by one signature(assuring Russia,that Ukraine would not join NATO in future).
My guesses :
1) Europe will revise its refugee and migration rules and views, as migrations pose a large structural risk
2) Autocratic regimes face a lot of hard power pressure. Russia has met incredible resistance trying to assert its order on Ukraine and this sets a precedent for any other bad actor state trying to subvert another relatively functioning and well-aligned democracy
3) Autocracies face a lot of soft power pressures, as they show to take the unethical side in conflicts. This will undoubtedly lead to economic uncertainty and insulation of said autocratic regimes, which will be primarily to their own detriment. Gone are the years of 20% YoY growth for China. It will be lucky to sustain any positive growth from here on out.
4) Democracies will face bad actors from authoritarian states (ruZZia/China) who intend to subvert their stability. Democracies will learn and will begin to take measures to actively do something about it, i reckon similar to the years post-9/11 for the US, when the Department of Homeland Security was created to deal with newfound physical threats. This new department will be dealing with external threats to our internal democratic structures.
So for everyone who is wondering what was the plain English translation
That young professor is simply saying if everyone plays nice and is of the same mind we can all get along. That’s a wonderful utopian idea . However the past proves present and shows us that we are not one civilization but in fact many different worlds apart in our cultures, our ideologies, and our beliefs . The only way to have a New World order is by force and manipulation of the masses. That’s why it is taking so long for those who believe in this theory to bring it to fruition. Our civilization as we know it is at a tipping point or rather a crescendo we’re all things fall apart and we get to start all over again. History proves that approximately every 500 years
Don’t you Alex think that EU has already made things quite regional a long time ago?
Strange you don't mention Russia among those of the emerging world order while you mention the EU which probably would have been dismanteled at that time. I'm a realistic European and from my prospective the so called American democracy and capitalism are the same or worse than no freedom, no rights and complete corruption.
The world order is US warships all around the world and that's not changing anytime soon. 🙂
We have chosen globalism, personal liberty and immigration for eternal growth here in the west. Eastern democracies have not chosen immigration which is a natural irritant to the working class and therefore they will be more stable and unite into the future. China remains the only significant economic power that could compete and win over countries. Biden just said US military will protect Taiwan so that's it. One thing that bugs me is the allowed world views and opinions are getting narrower and narrower in the west and press aggressively defends mainstream agendas. It feels authoritarian to many. Can my vote make a difference?
Amazing series.
maybe
(13) The Future of the "Super Power" concept
Will the international community of states accept in the long run that certain states act along "might is right"?
How could alternatives look like? (In theory, a community is always stronger than any individual)
The lynchpin here is whether forces of Trump and the right can take over or disrupt the US again. Living through the 2017-2020 years in the US were different than any others in my lifetime (in the US). Everything that seemed a given before was not. If you are predicting the future, you need to predict two very different paths, depending on how this plays out in the medium term.
US professor John Mearsheimer warned US multiple times about this scenario we now see for many years, US didn't care.
US invested billions since 2013 in Ukraine military, trying to provoke Russia.
People should see some education videos from US Professor John Mearsheimer, he knew what US planned in Ukraine for many years.
Many videos about it, all professor John Mearsheimer predicted would happen.
We see now, he was right about everything.
It's his job to know what US does, US would not listening to his warnings.
Bad move by US provoking world most powerful nuclear nation, idiots.....
US would never win this.
Agreed, with a recurrence of that experience (#45) the US would be viewed as a rogue state, leading to dark times indeed.
This is a total misread. If you want rules based order, you need enforcement. China has flouted WTO rules. So has the U.S., with or without Trump. Each will come to terms in their own sphere by the power they can project. If it is not in their interest, no enforcement is possible.
Hence why every single citizen of the US, who claims to be for freedom, needs to make sure to vote out (or at least not vote in) every single member of Trump’s party, so that a message can be sent that ‘This is the US, and we will *not* tolerate autocratic, despotic rulers!’
@@a2xd94 This is ideological wishful thinking. Each passing day is turning more registered Democrats against their own party. You are projecting how you would like things to be, not how they are.
Yes, here he goes again with his lecture. I say; Putin is doing Great, God Bless Him for standing up to sweet talking, narrative creating guys like this one narrating this video
Thank you Prof. Never to old to learn
The hands that are in control here is corporate mindset driven. We are being guided by this and that means there is no room for any type of rights that human beings have, natural, fundamental, common, so on so forth.
I really enjoyed your talk, and believe you have an incredible insight into the situations that are unfolding, but your "New world order" views might be flawed. As an South African, I observed a country where to the controlling minority relingished all its power for the purpose of achieving peace and freedom for all, and that was the last thing they found, from the people of this countrey killing each other over political ideologies, we have more people dying in this countrey today due crime and corruption than the war in the 80s, because control was lost. Freedom and human rights are great, but it's fundamentally flawed and always end up gravitating to the law of the jungle, where the strong survive and the weak gets exploited....the world work the same way.
Correct, nicely put!
Correct, nicely put!
🇷🇺🇺🇦Another crime of war by the Azov Batallion in Mariupol, a mass grave was discovered where the Ukrainian Armed Forces buried people on March 6-8. Locals say there could be between 30 and 400 people there.
👍
I have seen comments online from many people still thinking Russia is Communist. The take away is placing value on human capital and knowledge, so yes, we do understand that other societies have the right to not subsrcribe to "our values" hook line and sinker. India would be a perfect example. There has to be some fundamental balance between corporate power and people power and both those things require transparency and accountability.
Love the content, please don't make this the last 1!! Great work and perspective on this situation,